AJC > Sports > Blog > Archives > 2007 > August > 19 > Entry
DEL.ICIO.USIs Southern Cal really that good?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Random thoughts about the preseason AP Poll:
1. Is Southern Cal really THAT good?: The coaches poll gave the Trojans 45 out of 60 first-place votes. The AP media poll gave them 62 of 65. Stanford coach Jim Harbaugh is saying the 2007 Southern Cal team could be the best in the history of college football.
Let’s just hold on a second.
The 2005 Trojan team had two Heisman Trophy winners (Matt Leinart, Reggie) Bush but got beat by a hot quarterback (Vince Young of Texas). Southern Cal plays six road games (Nebraska, Washington, Notre Dame, Oregon, California, Arizona State). I’m just asking.
2. LSU gets love: For a team that lost four first-round draft choices, including the No. 1 overrall pick (QB JaMarcus Russell), LSU is getting a lot of love from the voters, who have them at No. 2 in both polls. It’s got to be based on a great defense that returns eight starters and the fact that the toughest games are in Baton Rouge. But can any team go undefeated against a schedule that includes Virginia Tech, South Carolina, Florida, Auburn, and Arkansas?
3. Two teams are going undefeated: Just call it a hunch. If Southern Cal is one, then I’m betting that No. 3 West Virginia will be the other. Notice that the media voted the Mountaineers No. 3 while the coaches had them at No. 6. Just an opinion, but I think coaches vote based on their assessment of the quality of the team. Media votes on the quality of the team AND that team’s likelihood of getting to the big game.
4. No respect for Tech? I remain surprised that Georgia Tech did not crack the Top 25 in either poll. Yep, the Yellow Jackets did lose Calvin Johnson but they return 15 starters and both kickers from a team that won nine games. Four of its five losses last season were by four points or less. Four of five starters return on the offensive line. Eight starters return on defense. What am I missing?
5. There is a mini-playoff: Except for Southern Cal, every team in the Top 10 has to play another Top 10 team in the regular season. No. 2 LSU plays two (No. 9 Virginia Tech, No. 6 Florida). No. 3 West Virginia plays No. 10 Louisville. No. 4 Texas plays No. 8 Oklahoma. No. 5 Michigan plays No. 7 Wisconsin. Southern Cal plays No. 12 California, No. 14 UCLA and No. 20 Nebraska.
Bonus thought: The protests of coach Charlie Weis to the contrary, I think it’s fair to say that Notre Dame is in a rebuilding year. The Irish received only 11 points in the media poll, which was good enough for No. 37.
Comments
By Lee
August 19, 2007 9:48 AM | Link to this
I am also surprised Ga Tech didn’t crack the top 25. After all, getting rid of Reggie Ball should be worth at least 10 points in the standings…
By ATL-Irish
August 19, 2007 10:09 AM | Link to this
Even if they did crack the top 25…it would be just temporary. They are going to lose their first game, and then they would drop out. Plus, they have a starting QB who wouldn’t start for Indiana St. He played good in one game against the 102nd ranked defense combined with an all world receiver. Tech may win 7 games at most!!
By Jay
August 19, 2007 10:49 AM | Link to this
Quit kissing up to the locals Tony. Tech lost five games and only beat one good team…Va Tech. Bennett’s bowl stats were mostly a product of Calvin. And with Chan Failey at the helm, the coaches and media both know theyre due for at least four losses again this season. In a weak acc,that means they arent good.
And Im a Tech fan.
By Jeff
August 19, 2007 12:04 PM | Link to this
We might as well just let USC take the whole season off and just play in the Championship game.
By Dave-SD
August 19, 2007 12:05 PM | Link to this
SC’s probably not ‘best ever’, but they look better going into the season than last year’s consensus #1 (Ohio State) and their margin in the preseason polls isn’t a lot bigger, and if I had to pick a Mythical National Championship Favorite, it’d be the trojans.
LSU’s getting way too much love. They lost a lot to the NFL, even you believe (as I do) that Russell was vastly overrated as a QB. I’m expecting a two-loss SEC champ that’s out of the national title picture, like usual.
There’s far more weird stuff in the Coach’s poll than the media poll. Like Florida at #3. Especially in preseason polls, the coaches overrate their conference and anyone else on their schedule, and overrate last year’s performance. Plus quirky things like Spurrier’s annual vote for Duke.
Tech’s still an ACC team, and therefore sucks. Sorry.
There’s not a mini-playoff, and the attempts by sportswriters to claim various non-playoff elements of college football are effectively a playoff are getting nasueating. Besides, neither VT nor FL will be a top-10 by the end of the year, and the Cal/UCLA winner will be top-10.
By taz
August 19, 2007 12:21 PM | Link to this
Defense wins games, period. With most of its starters back on D, LSU is poised to make a run, again. LSU has a favorable home schedule, a stable of running backs and a proven QB. What else do you need? This years national champ will again come from the SEC!
By reality check
August 19, 2007 12:22 PM | Link to this
What do Ohio State in 2001, LSU in 2002, Auburn in 2003, Oklahoma in 1999, Georgia in 1979, and Auburn in 1992 have in common?
They all lost 5 games that year then came back the next year to go undefeated and/or win the National Championship.
Tech lost 4 games in 1989, then went undefeated (1 tie) to claim the UPI National Championship. It would have been unanimous if Colorado hadn’t been given the 5th down against Missouri or if Notre Dame hadn’t had a questionable holding call on Rocket Ismaiel’s touchdown run in Colorado’s bowl game.
We might as well play the season and see what happens.
Last year is meaningless, but to answer your question , Tony, why Tech isn’t getting any love they finished poorly last year and Tech’s fan base is incredibly negative toward their own program. There are examples of that in this blog by admitted Tech fans.
By Matt
August 19, 2007 12:49 PM | Link to this
“I’m expecting a two-loss SEC champ that’s out of the national title picture, like usual.”
Like usual? You must have missed the part where an SEC team won the national title just last year. You must have missed the part where 4 of the past 5 SEC champs finished with no worse than one loss. You sir are clueless.
This is a wide open year IMO. No team really stands out, including USC. I wouldn’t be surprised if they were in the title game, but I also wouldn’t be surprised if they weren’t. They did after all lose two conference games last year to some not so great teams. They are far from infallible.
By Jacket in Nashville
August 19, 2007 12:50 PM | Link to this
Tennessee lost Peyton Manning in 1997 and then won it all in 1998. Don’t count the Jacket’s out yet…
By Hmmmm
August 19, 2007 1:08 PM | Link to this
Seems I remember last yr. that Ohio St. was declared the best thing since butter was invented. Declared the best team in the country with out a doubt. I suppose the Gators melted that stick of butter. So now its USC’s turn…can they stand the heat?
By John C.
August 19, 2007 1:16 PM | Link to this
You are right, Tony, Tech SHOULD have been in the Top 25 in both polls…especially with Wheeler and Choice returning with 17 other veterens. Tech has a monster of a kicker coming in also with Blair. Coaches do seem to overrate their conferences in pre-season.
To Atl-Irish: You guys can’t even pick a QB which says neither of them are that good. Home field may give you guys some advantage Sept.1, but you are in denial if you don’t think Tech is going to be any good this year. ND is too young and rebuilding to beat TECH this year.
To Jay: If you are going to bash Tech why do you even admit that you are a Tech fan. You are an embarrassment to the rest of the Tech fan base. Go pick another team!
To Dave-SD: If the ACC sucks, why are good teams like GA. TECH, VT, Miami, FLA. STATE, Clemson, etc. in the conference. Everyone has down years…SEC has had KY, Vandy, USC, and Miss. State that hasn’t done anything in years until last year. SEC sucks some years also. SORRY!!!
By Jim Thompson
August 19, 2007 2:01 PM | Link to this
Is USC that good? I’ll answer that with another question: Was Ohio State that good? Ask Florida — they had an emphatic answer. If the poll was so wrong about OSU at the end of the season, how in the world could they be right about USC at the start?
By War Eagle
August 19, 2007 2:56 PM | Link to this
USC good, very good, but West Va. schedule is light with only two teams a minor threat S. Florida, Maryland,plus Louisville) Beat Louisville they are in. USC schedule is more complicated. SEC schedules are magnified 5 times compared to either team. LSU opens with Va Tech #7, USC plays Idaho, second game Nebraska and WVA opens with W. Michigan, with Marshall next.
By OnTechFans
August 19, 2007 2:56 PM | Link to this
Taz … “Tech’s fan base is incredibly negative toward their own program. There are examples of that in this blog by admitted Tech fans.” Great point. Growing up in Oklahoma, I compare Tech fans to Oklahoma State fans. Both fan bases seem to like to hate their instate rivals more than they like to cheer for their own programs. It’s annoying.
About the polls: Which is the correct way to vote for a coach or media member — voting for the team with the suspected most talent and overall potential (coaching included) or the team they believe will win the national title?
By steve
August 19, 2007 5:07 PM | Link to this
i get so sick and tired of that west coast football bs. i think west by god virgina would kick usc’s a$% on a neutral field anytime. just tee it up and see what happens. go big east! they have better teams top to bottom than that pac 10 crowd.
By Dave-SD
August 19, 2007 10:40 PM | Link to this
steve, I’m a Big East fan. I grew up in the suburbs of Syracuse before moving to SoCal. I think it was ludicrous that UofL was completely ignored in the Michigan/Florida ‘who’s #2’ debate last year. If I had a vote, I’d make the Mountaineers #2 on my preseason ballot (my Orange, sadly to say, would need a miracle to manage 6-6). But anyone with a high-powered offense can play with them, becuase there are some serious holes in their defense. And Southern Cal has both a high-powered offense and a better defense than UofL or USF (who beat WVU last year — USF in Morgantown, IIRC), or Rutgers (who came awfully close).
John C. - the ACC has all of one win in its history in BCS bowls. And that was over a now-ACC team. That anyone thinks the ACC — or Big 12, for that matter — is a tougher conference than the Big East is just proof that some people pay more attention to a school’s name than the quality of their football team. If Syracuse and Pitt were playing like Louisville and Rutgers are (and the Cards and Knights were sitting in the conference’s lower division), the Big East just might be getting the respect it deserves.
By D. Ellis
August 20, 2007 7:44 AM | Link to this
Taz-LSU does not return a proven QB… a great team no doubt…but I don’t think the kid has played since he destroyed the worse Miami team in 20 years almost 2 years ago….but LSU is great none the less.
By D. Ellis
August 20, 2007 8:18 AM | Link to this
Guys-This is the “Paper” preseason polls….so everything is based on looking at the teams on “Paper”. IN that case yeah USC is no doubt the number 1 team…I mean aren’t all 3 of their LB’s like All American candidates are something like that??? They return their QB…who is pretty good….have an entire ranch…not a stable…but ranch of RB’s to choose from . So yeah on paper they are the best. LSU is great..they lost some talent but that D is nasty….but they will lose a game..possibly 2 in the SEC championship game. UF is a great team no doubt and deserves like any other team to defend their Title….but they are overrated at #3 in one poll…they are top ten team but no way they are number 3. They play at LSU, AT Kentucky, Against FSU which will be vastly improved, UGA, UT, AU…so their chances of being in the final top 5 are slim….but still a great team no doubt…just over rated. WEst Virgina is a great team but their schedule is so soft. They will probably ride the wave of a great preseason ranking..which is deserved….but ride that wave untill the end of the season and has a great chance to play for NC. That is untill they play someone that can score points…alaUL…but its funny that an SEC one loss team can play and win NC…and a one loss WV team is out hands down. GT getting snubbed I think. They return a great RB, A very good line, and their defense is always super tough. Wisconsin is a def. team that could play for NC. They will rocket up the polls…but with O-State, and Meeechigan back to back….good chance they lose one of those…but if they pull those 2 out and don’t stumble against lesser teams then you can’t deny their bid. Meeechigan is the same way…we will probably see that same thing of 2 Big TEn teams in the top 5 for most of season untill they play each other….Meechigan and O-Sate last year….and the winner of Wisconsin and Meeechigan will be in the hunt big time…as long as Neither looses to O-State…which if I picked one it would be Meeechigan. Texas wil lbe in the hunt big time untill 10/6 at the Red River. I think VT is the sleeper here this year. They have a very very favorable schedule….of course if they survive their trip to LSU…which I think they will….they will play BC at home…travel to GT..play FSU at home…and Miami at home. They win that game at LSU and they will vault into the top5…and stay there until late in the season when their schedule hits the grind a bit against those listed above. But like I said it’s all on paper…and oh yeah my homeer picks since I’m a DAWG fan!!!!!!!!
I love the offense with the move of MM to the slot, Hnderson and Bailey will open the middle of the field because they are burners and if Defenses don’t account for that look for Stafford to air it out early untill it really opens up the running game. But anyway…I see a 10-2 season going into Bowl game…possibly 9-3 with a swing game against UF and another possibly with O-State in the opener….but I would like to believe that the DAWGS are a legit ranking of 7-11 by the end of the year. GO DAWGS!!!!!!!!
But remember it is all on Paper. 12 more days!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!