AJC > Sports > Blog > Archives > 2007 > August > 05 > Entry
DEL.ICIO.USQuestions about the coaches poll
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The USA Today preseason coaches poll came out on Friday and, as always, there are some questions. Here are my top five. Feel free to disagree:
1. Why did Florida get nine first place votes and finish No. 3? Yes, the Gators are the defending national champions and with the coaches that always seems to carry a lot of weight. But coaches are always the first to say that last year has no bearing on this year. The fact is the Gators lost nine starters on defense in a league where defense wins championships. Given the talent level, Florida probably deserves to be in the Top 10 but three seems a little high.
2. Should Tennessee be worried about its trip to Cal on Sept. 1? The coaches made the Bears No. 12 because they return eight starters from an offense that led the Pac-10 in scoring (32.6 ppg). But one of those missing is RB Marshawn Lynch. Still, any problems Tennessee may have in its secondary had better be buttoned up before the Vols get to Berkeley. Those guys can wing it and have revenge on their minds after a serious beat down last year in Knoxville.
3. Is the Big Ten REALLY that good? There are three teams in the Top 10 (No. 5 Michigan, No. 7 Wisconsin, No. 10 Ohio State). The good news is that, unlike last season when Wisconsin was complaining about not getting into the BCS at 11-1, all three teams play each other. That’s the good thing about having a conference championship game: If the regular schedule allows you to duck a really good team in your conference, chances are greater that you’ll have to eventually play them to win the championship.
4. Where’s the love for the ACC? Virginia Tech returns most of a great defense so the coaches made them No. 9. Florida State reworked its coaching staff to have to be better, right? The Seminoles are at No. 21. But that’s it. If the poll went to 28 Georgia Tech, Boston College and Miami would have gotten in. Wake Forest, the defending ACC champs, was 31. Does this league have something to prove this season? You bet it does. SEC fans, who have six teams in the Top 20, are going to take their shots.
5. Is West Virginia sitting in the catbird’s seat? Let’s start with the assumption that Southern Cal will go undefeated and stay at No. 1. So if everybody is is playing for No. 2, you have to like West Virginia’s chances.
The Mountaineers start at No. 6 and teams 2-5 (LSU, Florida, Texas, Michigan) all will find it very difficult to go undefeated. West Virginia’s two toughest road games will be at South Florida (Sept. 28) and at Rutgers (Oct. 27). They get Louisville at home on Nov. 8 in what will probably be for the Big East championship. And let’s go ahead and say this now: A one-loss SEC or Big Ten team is not going to get in the BCS title game ahead of an undefeated Big East champion because the human polls now dominate the formula. And if Southern Cal and West Virginia are the only two undefeated teams on Dec. 2, then that’s your game.
Comments
By Rusty Banks
August 5, 2007 11:11 AM | Link to this
A.) Tennessee will have no problem with Cal
B.) West Virginia should go undefeated.
http://www.rustybanks.com
By Airheadmotorcycle
August 5, 2007 11:21 AM | Link to this
Yes, I’m a “homer”, but #3 is about right for the Gators. Their offense will be simply unstoppable. In three to four games the defense will be very good as well. The only teams that can beat them on their schedule are LSU (who is ranked #2) and USC (they have a GREAT coach). Who else can beat them? UGA? Please. Tennessee? Maybe, but I like being at home. Auburn? Maybe, but again I like being at home. FSU? LOL
By Atlanta Gator
August 5, 2007 11:33 AM | Link to this
Tony——After the complete trashings that Ohio State, Michigan and Notre Dame received in their bowl games, one thing is for sure: none of the above should be ranked above Florida, Southern Cal or LSU (and they’re not). No more Big Ten (and Notre Dame) whining; if they want to be ranked among the best, they need to win against top-ranked opponents outside their conference and region.
As for the Gators, they may earn a number 3 ranking before the season is over, but based on returning starters and defensive team experience, the Gators are definitely over-rated to start the season. I suspect there are two reasons for this. First, there is no other dominating powerhouse carryover team from last season. Second, yes, they are the defending championship team and coach, and that has a certain impact on the poll voters in the pre-season polls.
As for West Virginia, I’ll believe they’re for real after they beat Southern Cal, LSU or a top Big-12 team. Not before then. Playing in the Big East, they will not face enough strong competition to know how to react and adapt when they are finally confronted with another top-notch team. That’s one thing about playing in the SEC; you may not win all your games, but you will certainly be psychologically prepared to play with the big boys.
As for the ACC, well, until FSU and Miami return to top-10 form, the conference is not going to get a lot of top-10 love from the polls. Wake Forest will not repeat, and Georgia Tech is less experienced than they were last year. Virginia Tech may have to carry the conference.
By 66mustang
August 5, 2007 12:34 PM | Link to this
No teams need to be in a poll until the 4th week of the season. Play some games and lets findout who deserves to be ranked. Every team will then get a chance to be in the CHAMPIONSHIP Hunt.
By War Eagle
August 5, 2007 1:22 PM | Link to this
Auburn is overrated at 14th. Cox needs to prove he can respond after a injury prone 2006 season. The schedule is tough and inexperienced OL. defense again will be good, but you have to score points to compete.
By SW
August 5, 2007 1:36 PM | Link to this
atlanta gator, i’m not even a west virginia fan but they licked uga pretty good in the sugar bowl (they weren’t supposed to beat) and also came back to beat a decent gatech team (they weren’t supposed to beat) and they weren’t even at “full force” in the latter. honestly, i don’t think many teams would want to face them and it’s easier to write them off from a distance… i’d love to see them play the gators, lsu, scal, etc. in a bowl game…
the big 10 sucks!!
By Dave
August 5, 2007 1:55 PM | Link to this
Tony, how are you figuring WVU has an easier schedule than Texas? Both teams essentially have a two-game schedule (Texas has Oklahoma and Nebraska; WVU has Louisville and Rutgers) with a few midling conference foes that could cause problems (Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, KSU; USF, Cinci) and seven or eight games they should win easily. I mean, yes, if you’re stuck in that old-school mentality where Oklahoma and Nebraska are better than Louisville and Rutgers by definition, then Texas has a tougher schedule. But on the field… well, I really don’t think anyone’s going undefeated in the Big East this year.
By poopdawg
August 5, 2007 2:54 PM | Link to this
sw, (west virginia licked uga pretty good in the sugar bowl?). did you watch the game? score 38-35 with wv converting a gutsy 4th down with 1:40 to play.wv is an awesome team. sw are your comments about the actual game ? or is it the pre or post game festivities?
By AJ GREEN WEARS #1
August 5, 2007 4:02 PM | Link to this
Poopdawg,
Did you watch the game. WV came out and laid it to us. CMR and the team was cught flatfooted by WVU speed. Yes DJ 3was able to rally the team but at the end of the 1st half WVU had made a big statement. Rich Rodriguez is a great coach and as a UGA fan can freely admit that we were out coached that game.
By Jamie
August 5, 2007 4:47 PM | Link to this
Airhead motorcycle…LOL?? You must’ve forgotten, along with a whole lot of others…just what FSU accomplished in the 90s! I know this is 2007, but LOL? PLEASE! Brother…there will be a RECKONING in the coming 2-3 years in Tallahassee!! I do recall the “National Champion” Gators…eeeking out a one touchdown victory last year…a dismantling of UCLA in the bowl game as a decided underdog…need I say more? LOL? All but Wake were under 7 point losses…it’s not like the Seminoles were blown out. We’ll see about LOL! GO SEMINOLES!
By Atlanta Gator
August 5, 2007 5:39 PM | Link to this
SW——My point was not to compare the Mountaineers to the Gators. Frankly, the Mountaineers probably start this season in better shape than the Gators do.
My point was that WVU will not be repeatedly tested during the regular season by top-10 competition as other top-10 teams will be. That’s the same formula that allowed Ohio State to get caught flat-footed in the BCS championship game; they had beaten Michigan and thought they were something special. They had not seen the team speed that the Gators DEs brought down on their QB, nor offensive schemes similar. Regular season adversity translates into the ability to adapt in conference championships and bowl games; team confidence comes from having won such games. When OSU fell behind 2 touchdowns, it was like somebody had let the air out of them. Their team confidence was crushed.
WVU may finish the season undefeated and ranked number 1 or 2, but, if they do, they will not win the BCS championship.
By Atlanta Gator
August 5, 2007 5:54 PM | Link to this
Jamie——Actually, the 2006 Gators “eeked out” five games by a touchdown or less (UT 21-20, UGA 21-14, Vandy 25-19, USC 17-16 & FSU 21-14). They also beat Bama 28-13, LSU (23-10) and Arkansas (38-28) by relatively close margins, too. Some AJC bloggers want to call that “luck”; I say it’s the result of Urban Meyer’s good coaching. IMHO, if Ron Zook had still been the coach, the Gators would have finished the regular season no better than 9-3 with the same kids (maybe as poorly as 8-5), and the outcome of their non-BCS bowl would have been seriously in doubt.
We will see how FSU does over the next 2 seasons, especially in light of the restocked FSU coaching staff. But in fairness to all those recently recruited players and coaches in Tallahassee, it may be time for a coaching change at the top.
By Jamie
August 5, 2007 8:07 PM | Link to this
Atlanta Gator: Point well taken my friend! I, like Coach Bowden, realize that it DOES take some luck to win it all, and the Gators had their share, but regardless…won it all. The Seminoles have been in that same position a few times…lol ( Lucky I mean) I think Urban Meyer is a nice fit in Gainesville, and will have great success! I hope the current coaching changes are enough at FSU to allow Coach Bowden the opportunity to leave when he decides he is ready! I am just ready for Florida State, Florida, and Miami, to get it back to the point where we are all three contending for conference, AND National Championships every year!! Jamie P.S. Forgive me..the losses of the last few years have made all Seminole fans a little defensive! lol Most fans can relate to that from some point in their teams past. GO SEMINOLES!! (winks)
By Airheadmotorcycle
August 5, 2007 8:42 PM | Link to this
Hey Jamie, My response to your post is this:
Wake Forest 30 F$U 0
LOL
By Atlanta Gator
August 5, 2007 8:55 PM | Link to this
Jamie——No need to be defensive. None whatsoever. To those who are unfamiliar with the University of Florida’s present academic standing, I always gently remind them that it has become a great university that coincidentally has two of the top 10 men’s and women’s intercollegiate sports programs in the country. In light of the great academic strides that all Florida universities have made over the last 25 years, FSU alumni may boast the same.
Speaking on behalf of my alma mater, it is a small school, sir, but there are those who love it well (with apologies to Daniel Webster).
By lawdawg
August 5, 2007 9:22 PM | Link to this
Does anyone besides me think it’s dumb to have preseason top 25 polls? It seems like waiting until the 5th or 6th week of the season would both prevent surprise teams from being locked out of the chance for a NC (by being ranked too low to begin with and prevent overranking of teams like West Virginia because they have an easy schedule and a better chance of ending up undefeated…whether they’re actually the best team in the country or not.
Thoughts?
By Atlanta Gator
August 5, 2007 10:04 PM | Link to this
lawdawg——You write with wisdom; there is nothing in your comment with which to disagree. All true, all correct. While the USA Today’s editorial page blathers on about the pre-season poll’s integrity, let’s keep in mind that the pre-season poll’s sole purpose is to sell newspapers.
By Ol Ball Coach
August 6, 2007 9:16 AM | Link to this
Of course the Volunteers are worried about the trip to California. Do they even sell sour mash in the wine country?
By Paul
August 6, 2007 3:22 PM | Link to this
West Virginia is not only the real deal, they are an awesome, well coached machine.
The Big East has developed into a fine conference… better than before the defections. Although relatively small in numbers, top to bottom there are right up there with the best. As a league they were 5-0 in bowl games last season.
The contention that BE teams don’t face a daunting schedule is short sighted. They play a round robin schedule, which meant every team plays essentially three Top 25 teams in-conference. SEC teams do not all play each other, nor to Big 10 teams. For every LSU or Michigan there is a West Virginia or Louisville. For every Syracuse there is a Vanderbilt or Northwestern, not to mention an Indiana or Illinois.
By Atlanta Gator
August 7, 2007 1:54 AM | Link to this
Paul——Your comment ignores the fact that members of three BCS conferences (ACC, Big 12 & SEC) not only play 8 of the other 11 teams in their respective conferences, the best teams from each of the conferences’ divisions must play each other for the conference championship. That’s a far cry from the failure of Michigan, Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin to play each other every year, and thereby achieve higher overall conference poll rankings than they otherwise would with more in-conference losses.
As for the Big East, when Louisville plays Texas, West Virginia plays LSU, Rutgers plays Michigan, and South Florida plays Florida State, then we’ll know how good the Big East really is.
By jackets fan
August 7, 2007 11:44 AM | Link to this
I don’t know why the Gators wouldn’t rightly garner some first place consideration. Afterall, wasn’t it Ohio State that was replacing several starters on their defense, that was a preseason #1 team? They made it all the way to the title game. I find Florida at #3 to be just about right. You don’t think Florida can reload on defense as quickly as Ohio State can? Based on what I saw, Florida will be fine, cause Tim Tebow is a better QB than Chris Leak.
Funny how coaches, who spend less time studying the college football landscape than your typical college football couch potato are allowed to vote and help determine who is ranked where. You can see the ignorance play out in some of the teams left out of the top 25. But when you see rankings developed by expert, in depth analysis, you see a more accurate idea of how the teams stack up. For example, GT is left out of the top 25 by the coach voting, but in preview magazines and websites, GT is in the top 15. Because when you return a stout defense and an experienced offensive line, with a league leading rusher, and a QB with some promise, experts know that you will be a top15 team, not a mid 20’s-30 team.