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November 2006
Ol’ Ball Coach staying put
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
So many questions. So little time.
— What’s going on with Steve Spurrier and Alabama? This situation is not that complicated. Before the end of this week, or early next week, we predict that the Ball Coach will get a new contract at South Carolina. The current one pays him about $1.25 million, because in the original contract Spurrier gave up $250,000 to be spread around to his assistant coaches. He knew that if he won, the opportunity would quickly come to get that money back. With Alabama all but begging him to bring his visor to Tuscaloosa, payday has arrived. Figure the new deal with be in the neighborhood of $2 million per year, which is still less than what he’s worth.
— After a gut-wrenching loss to Georgia, can Georgia Tech get off the deck and beat Wake Forest for the ACC championship?
You can analyze this one to death but at the end of the day it’s up to the players. And if I’m a player, here is what I think: Everybody is dumping on us because we didn’t get it done in Athens. The Gator Bowl has said publicly that they don’t want us. Our athletic director had to raise some hell just to get them to do the right thing.
There is only way to shut all these people up.
Win the game.
That’s it. Just win the game.
If that’s not enough to get you motivated, then you need to take up tennis.
— Everybody seems to like Arkansas in the SEC championship game. Do the Gators have a chance?
Oh yeah.
When you can play great defense-and the Gators can-you always have a chance. Florida won’t stop Darren McFadden and Felix Jones. Nobody can. If they can hold them to under 150 yards combined, they will win the game. That’s a big if. A really big if. Let’s put it this way. Arkansas is going to have to make some plays in the passing game to win. Those passing plays may come from McFadden.
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Speaking the harsh truth
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Just one man’s opinion:
Tulane’s decision to fire Chris Scelfo as head coach is shameful. Scelfo, the former assistant to Jim Donnan at Georgia, held that team together through the worst possible experience when they had to leave New Orleans because of Hurricane Katrina. They played the entire 2005 season on the road and were just starting to get back to normal in 2006. The timing just really stinks.
Steve Spurrier will politely listen to what Alabama has to say-or at least his agent, Jimmy Sexton, will. Alabama will give him several million reasons to leave South Carolina and come to Tuscaloosa. They will even float the idea of Bill “Brother” Oliver coming out of retirement to be defensive coordinator. Spurrier has made no secret of his admiration for Oliver. The next 48 hours will be crucial in this process.
How mad do you think Bob Stoops is right now? If not for a blown call in the Oregon game, and now the official involved has gone public saying that it was a bad call, Oklahoma would be 11-1 going into Saturday’s Big 12 championship game with Nebraska. The Sooners would be right in the middle of the national championship discussion. Instead, the Sooners may go to the Fiesta Bowl and play Boise State.
What does it say about the state of college football when the coaches at Wake Forest (Jim Grobe), Rutgers (Greg Schiano), and South Florida (Jim Leavitt) can say no to Alabama and Miami? And what kind of odds could you have gotten this summer that Wake Forest and Rutgers would be playing in the Orange Bowl? If both win on Saturday that is what will happen.
Texas coach Mack Brown is looking for another defensive coordinator now that Gene Chizik has gone to Iowa State. Depending on who the next head coach at Alabama will be, Joe Kines could soon be on the open market. Brown would be smart to snap Kines up. He does a great job with great talent. He does an even better job when he has to use his smarts and out scheme people like he did this season.
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A solid BCS plan
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
After Saturday’s games, I believe the final BCS Standings will look like this:
1-Ohio State 2-Southern Cal 3-Michigan 4-Florida (if Florida loses to Arkansas, then LSU goes here).
What would be wrong with this plan:
—The BCS championship game is supposed to be played in Glendale, Ariz. So we’ll keep it there and play it on Jan. 8 as scheduled.
—Since the Rose Bowl is supposed to get the Big Ten champ, on Jan. 1 Ohio State will host No. 4 Florida or LSU in Pasadena.
—With the Rose Bowl filled, the Sugar is next in line because it lost the SEC champion/representative. So Southern Cal and Michigan will meet in New Orleans, also on Jan. 1.
—A week later the two winning teams meet in Glendale to decide the national championship.
—The Orange Bowl would still get the ACC champ and could match them up with LSU or Florida, which is what they want.
—The Fiesta Bowl would still get its Oklahoma vs. Boise State match-up.
So everybody gets what they want. The only thing that changes is that we have two semifinals on Jan. 1 and a true national championship a week later.
What’s wrong with that?
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Alabama may have slim pickings
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Mike Shula has been fired as Alabama’s coach.
Now what?
If you’re an Alabama fan, you’d better hope that athletics director Mal Moore already has somebody in mind and has reached out to him. Because if Alabama is starting today from square one, it just might be a long and painful search.
Here’s why:
Steve Spurrier ain’t coming.
Nick Saban ain’t coming.
Bobby Petrino probably ain’t coming because he has a 10-year deal worth $2.5 million per year with a $1 million buy out. And he’s playing in a league (Big East) that he can win most of the time.
I know Alabama wants to make a splash by hiring a big-name, established head coach from another school. But when a school has had four coaches in seven years the established coaches tend to get gun shy.
You want some guys who MIGHT come and who are good coaches? Here’s three:
*Jim Grobe, Wake Forest: Should be the national coach of the year after leading Wake Forest to the first 10-win season in the history of the school, which has an enrollment of about 4,000.
*Paul Johnson, Navy: Will be 9-3 in a tough recruiting atmosphere after beating Army on Saturday.
*Mike Riley, Oregon State: He’s an Alabama grad with NFL experience who played for Bear Bryant. Oregon State (8-4) is the only team to beat No. 2 Southern Cal all season. If you have some better suggestions, I’d love to hear them.
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Jackets’ drought against UGA will end
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The Fearless Friday forecast:
— I can’t tell you how badly Georgia Tech needs to beat Georgia on Saturday. The Yellow Jackets have had a wonderful season and should be favored to win the ACC championship game eight days from now. But as big as the ACC title would be for Georgia Tech, the 2006 season won’t taste nearly as sweet if the Yellow Jackets have to swallow the bitter pill of another loss to the state rival. For in the off-season, every time a Georgia Tech fan says “We won the ACC!” his next door neighbor, the smart aleck who wears Red and Black, will be able to add a “but” to that sentence. Do not under estimate how significant that would be for Tech fans. Georgia Tech wins in Athens and here’s why: Jon Tenuta, Tech’s defensive mastermind, will make Matthew Stafford look like a freshman quarterback again. Those turnovers will be enough to put Tech over the top. Georgia Tech 21, Georgia 17.
—Notre Dame can beat Southern Cal Saturday night, but the magic number is 40. That’s how many points the Irish have to score to have a chance against the Trojans. Last time I checked the same corners were playing at Notre Dame, which means Dwayne Jarrett, Southern Cal’s splendid wide receiver, can’t wait for this game to get started. Charlie Weis is an offensive genious, I’ll give him that. But he can’t play defense and, unfortunately for Notre Dame, neither can the Irish Southern Cal 35, Notre Dame 30.
—If you had told Wake Forest and Maryland fans in August that THIS game would be for the ACC Atlantic Division championship, they would have kissed you right on the mouth. But thanks to Boston College’s loss to Miami Thursday night, Saturday’s game in College Park is for a trip to Jacksonville to play Georgia Tech. The Terps are undefeated at home. That will change on Saturday. Wake Forest 17, Maryland 16.
—Steve Spurrier has done a lot of neat things in his first two seasons at South Carolina. He’s beaten Tennessee and Florida and scared a whole lot of other people. But the South Carolina fans REALLY want the Ball Coach to find a way to beat Clemson, which has looked like an average team since that 31-7 beat down of Georgia Tech on Oct. 21. Clemson has more talented players and the Tigers are at home so they should win. But look for Spurrier to find a way to scare another team but to come up short on talent. Clemson 21, South Carolina 19.
—If Florida was playing ANYBODY but Florida State I would suggest that the Gators could be looking ahead to next week’s showdown with Arkansas in the SEC championship game. But this game is about pride, it’s about recruiting and it’s about staying in the hunt for the national championship. Florida coach Urban Meyer knows that if he wins this game, the Good Lord, as Spurrier used to say, will be “smiling on the Gators” on national signing day. After this one is over and Florida State is 6-6, Bobby Bowden will have some big decisions to make. Florida 24, Florida State 14.
Of bowls and Bo
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
With bowl assignments set to be handed out a week from Sunday, here’s a look at what could be in store this postseason for Georgia and Georgia Tech.
If Tech beats Georgia but loses in the ACC championship game: The Jackets look like a good bet to stay home for the Chick-fil-A Bowl.
No matter what happens Saturday, if Tech wins the ACC championship: The Jackets goes to the Orange Bowl.
If Tech loses its next two: The Jackets go to either the Chick-fil-A or Gator bowl.
If Georgia beats Tech: The Bulldogs go to either the Chick-fil-A or Music City bowl.
If Georgia loses to Tech: The Bulldogs go to either the Music City or Liberty bowl.
There is so much to be thankful for as we approach Thanksgiving: Our families, our health, our freedom, our love of college football.
And before he writes his traditional column on Thursday, I want to say that I’m thankful for Furman Bisher, who has been both a mentor and a friend.
But today I want to tell you how thankful I am for Bo.
You really don’t have to write his last name any more. Since we lost him so suddenly last Friday, Bo Schembechler proved that he is immortal.
I really never got to know Bo when he was the head coach at Michigan (1969-89). But the intensity of the man literally oozed out of his skin onto the TV screen. The wins and the losses speak for themselves. But all those Big Ten championships and Rose Bowls are not what made him special.
I had gotten to know Bo over the past five years when we served together on the Honors Court, an 11-person committee that selects each new incoming class to the College Football Hall of Fame. For the better part of a day we would gather in a closed meeting room surrounded by infinite amounts of information about those who had had been nominated for college football’s highest honor. The discussion was always lively and everyone was encouraged to be totally frank in their assessments of the candidates.
Bo needed no such encouragement.
If the guy could play, Bo said he could play. If the guy was just OK, Bo said that too. He never played favorites and in that room his opinion carried a lot of weight — as it should.
And when he got to telling stories about Woody Hayes, the rest of us in the room wanted to get a couple of beers and take the rest of the day off just to listen to him.
Bo was one of those men, like Bear Bryant, whose presence simply filled the room. He was also one of those men who achieved greatness because ultimately they believed in something bigger than themselves. Above all else, Bo believed in the TEAM.
Bo believed that if a group of individuals could bond and form a team, then the whole would be infinitely greater than the sum of the parts. As a coach his Thursday talks to this team — like the one he gave to the Michigan squad last Thursday just hours before he died — were rarely about the opponent. They were about believing in one’s self and believing in each other.
Bo made his players believe they could accomplish great things. He believed that greatness is in all of us if we just have the courage to tap into it. You never played the game-or life-afraid.
It is a message that rings as clear now as it did when Bo became coach at Michigan in 1969. And now that he’s gone, I am grateful that I was able to hear it straight from him.
Thanks, Bo.
Coaching rumors rampant
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Just for fun, let’s take a spin on the coaching carousel:
*Mike Shula: When I arrived in Tuscaloosa last Saturday for the Alabama-Auburn game, I was certain that Shula was safe, no matter the outcome. But facts are facts: 2-14 against Alabama’s four biggest rivals (Auburn, Arkansas, LSU, Tennessee). An SEC record of 13-19. Three non-winning seasons in four tries.
There were some very questionable coaching decisions in that game with Auburn, especially the one where Shula attempted a two-point conversion just before halftime. The questions that President Robert Witt and athletics director Mal Moore have to ask: Is there any sign that things will be better if Shula is given a fifth year? After four years, are you convinced that Shula is THE guy?
*Larry Coker: Coker said this week that he has no intention of resigning, Good for him. This may not have been Coker’s best year as a head coach, but it is certainly one of his best years ever as a human being.
Very few people could have led Miami and its players through the turmoil of losing, a brawl, and the tragic death of a teammate while keeping his dignity intact. Coker probably won’t be the head coach at Miami next season, but somebody needs to hire this guy. He is a class act.
*Miami: If we are to believe Internet reports, somebody, somewhere with Miami connections says the school wants to go after Steve Spurrier. What’s wrong? Charlie Weis isn’t good enough? What about Pete Carroll? What about Bill Parcells? What about Vince Lombardi? It shows just how out of touch some folks down in Coral Gables have become.
Here is what you have to understand: No established coach is going to take that job now. Greg Schiano of Rutgers is going to sit tight until Joe Paterno retires. Miami doesn’t need a great football coach. It needs Father Flanagan, and nobody who has already has some success wants to invest three or four years of his career trying to rebuild the wounded psyche of that football program.
*FSU: A big time offensive coordinator will come to Florida State under two conditions. 1) He has to be given complete control of the offense, which means that Bobby Bowden has to resist the urge to put on the headsets when things get tight; 2) If he does a great job and pulls this offense out of the dumpster, he has to feel that he will at least get a shot at the head job when Bowden retires. He will also command a rather large salary.
Coaching carousel a-spin again
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Just for fun, let’s take a spin on the coaching carousel:
Michigan-Ohio St. rematch? Bad.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
No. No. No. No. No.
I don’t want to hear it.
I don’t want to hear how a rematch between Ohio State and Michigan for the national championship would be great.
I don’t want to hear that they are the two best teams in college football.
I don’t want to hear about all of the great story lines what would be written if they meet again on Jan. 8 in Glendale, Ariz.
They may be the best two teams in college football but that’s irrelevant. Michigan had their shot. They lost. Now it’s time to give somebody else their shot.
The most compelling argument against a rematch was made by Bo Schembechler, may God rest his wonderful soul. I was on a conference call with Bo last Wednesday and he said it very plainly:
“It (a rematch) would not be fair to the team that wins the first game,” said Bo, who could always cut to the chase.
I don’t care if it’s Southern Cal, Florida, Arkansas, Notre Dame or the Hahira Teachers College. Somebody other than Michigan needs to play the Buckeyes for the national championship.
A rematch might be great for my buddies at ESPN and FOX, but it wouldn’t be good for college football. It would be one more nail in the BCS coffin. The BCS has enough problems. It doesn’t need this aggravation. If Southern Cal wins out against Notre Dame and UCLA, I think the Trojans jump over Michigan. But if Southern Cal loses, oh boy! We are going to have one big argument.
That’s fine. We can have the argument just as long as it doesn’t end in a rematch. That would be bad. Very bad.
Why the Buckeyes will prevail
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The Fearless Friday Forecast:
— No. 1 Ohio State will beat No. 2 Michigan. Three reasons:
1) Jim Tressel is one of the best big game coaches in all of college football. He’s 4-1 against Michigan.
2) Ohio State is playing at home.
3) Ohio State has the best quarterback. Troy Smith will make a play in this game that we’ll all be talking about Sunday morning. In the process he will probably lock up the Heisman Trophy. What’s the final? Try Ohio State 21, Michigan 10.
— The Rose Bowl won’t admit it, but they will be pulling for Michigan on Saturday. Why? Normally the Rose Bowl would get the Big Ten champ but this season that team is going to the BCS championship. So the Rose will take the loser of this game. The Rose may also lose the Pac-10 champ if Southern Cal wins out (that’s a big if) and goes to Glendale. If Ohio State loses and goes to Pasadena, the Rose can match the Buckeyes with Notre Dame. If Michigan loses they can’t because it would be a rematch.
— There are all kinds of signs that point to Alabama pulling off the upset and beating Auburn. The Crimson Tide is playing at home. Auburn is coming off a bad performance against Georgia. Mike Shula REALLY needs a win, which would be his first as coach over the Tigers. So why do I get this sense that Auburn is going to play well? Auburn 24, Alabama 20.
— Southern Cal’s loss to Oregon State on Oct. 28 was a wakeup call for the Trojans. Now they understand that if they win out, the prize could be a trip to the BCS championship game. California has been playing very good football since the opener, when Tennessee beat them up in Knoxville. That streak ends on Saturday. Southern Cal 31, California 17.
— Wake Forest has done some remarkable things this season, including last week’s 30-0 beat down of Florida State in Tallahassee. But Saturday’s game with Virginia Tech is an near impossible task for the Deacons. The outcome of this game does not matter to the Deacons, who will go to the ACC championship game if they beat Maryland next week. As good of a coach as Jim Grobe is, it will be hard to get his team to focus on the Hokies, who want to finish 10-2 and come to the Chick-fil-A Bowl. Virginia Tech 17, Wake Forest 13.
Why the Buckeyes will prevail
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The Fearless Friday Forecast:
— No. 1 Ohio State will beat No. 2 Michigan. Three reasons:
1) Jim Tressel is one of the best big game coaches in all of college football. He’s 4-1 against Michigan.
2) Ohio State is playing at home.
3) Ohio State has the best quarterback. Troy Smith will make a play in this game that we’ll all be talking about Sunday morning. In the process he will probably lock up the Heisman Trophy. What’s the final? Try Ohio State 21, Michigan 10.
— The Rose Bowl won’t admit it, but they will be pulling for Michigan on Saturday. Why? Normally the Rose Bowl would get the Big Ten champ but this season that team is going to the BCS championship. So the Rose will take the loser of this game. The Rose may also lose the Pac-10 champ if Southern Cal wins out (that’s a big if) and goes to Glendale. If Ohio State loses and goes to Pasadena, the Rose can match the Buckeyes with Notre Dame. If Michigan loses they can’t because it would be a rematch.
— There are all kinds of signs that point to Alabama pulling off the upset and beating Auburn. The Crimson Tide is playing at home. Auburn is coming off a bad performance against Georgia. Mike Shula REALLY needs a win, which would be his first as coach over the Tigers. So why do I get this sense that Auburn is going to play well? Auburn 24, Alabama 20.
— Southern Cal’s loss to Oregon State on Oct. 28 was a wakeup call for the Trojans. Now they understand that if they win out, the prize could be a trip to the BCS championship game. California has been playing very good football since the opener, when Tennessee beat them up in Knoxville. That streak ends on Saturday. Southern Cal 31, California 17.
— Wake Forest has done some remarkable things this season, including last week’s 30-0 beat down of Florida State in Tallahassee. But Saturday’s game with Virginia Tech is an near impossible task for the Deacons. The outcome of this game does not matter to the Deacons, who will go to the ACC championship game if they beat Maryland next week. As good of a coach as Jim Grobe is, it will be hard to get his team to focus on the Hokies, who want to finish 10-2 and come to the Chick-fil-A Bowl. Virginia Tech 17, Wake Forest 13.
Tackling the tough questions
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
We have so many questions.
No. 1: Is Mike Shula in trouble if Alabama loses to Auburn for the fifth straight year? Don’t think so. The fans are going to be upset if Tommy Tuberville walks out of Bryant-Denny Stadium Saturday waving five fingers in the air. But the powers that be in Tuscaloosa believe the program is headed in the right direction and that it would be a mistake to make a change now. But if I was on the offensive coaching staff, I just might be updating my resume.
No. 2: Is Jimbo Fisher going to be the next offensive coordinator at Florida State? Not unless FSU is prepared to pony up some serious cash. Fisher, the offensive coordinator at LSU, is one of the highest paid assistants in the SEC at $400,000 per season. He has a three-year contract at that figure. No assistant at Florida State, including defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews, is close to that. And a little bird told me that no assistant at Florida State is going to make more than Andrews.
No. 3: Is there a legitimate reason to believe that Alabama can beat Auburn? Absolutely. In fact, here are three: 1) Alabama gained 369 yards last week against an LSU defense that may be the best in the country. 2) Auburn has regressed as a team since beating Florida on Oct. 14. That team has some real weaknesses that were exposed by Georgia. 3) Joe Kines. As long as he is running the Alabama defense, the Crimson Tide has a chance every week.
No. 4: Should Joe Tereshinksi get some snaps next week against Georgia Tech? Of course. If Georgia loses to Georgia Tech - and that game looks a lot more interesting now than it did a week ago - it won’t be because Joe T gets on the field on Senior Day. Joe T has been a good soldier for Georgia. His entire family has been good for Georgia. It’s the right thing to do and he has earned it.
No. 5: Should Reggie Ball play at all against Duke? Fans can assume Georgia Tech will just run right over Duke and thus, should keep Reggie on the bench. The fact is that Tech only scored seven points on North Carolina, whose defensive woes are well documented. Here’s a compromise. If Tech is up 28-0 at halftime, then Patrick Nix can give Reggie the rest of the day off. Reggie can play. He just needs to play smart.
Bowden must adapt
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
When Jeff Bowden resigned as offensive coordinator at Florida State on Tuesday, it was the first of many steps that will have to be taken if the Seminoles are going to become a national power again.
Bobby Bowden was right when he kept claiming that all of the offensive woes at Florida State could not be laid at the feet of his son. The problems run much, much deeper than one coach.
Here is what Coach Bowden needs to do now. He is well known for being uncomfortable when it comes to bringing in coaches outside of his circle of friends and family. But that is exactly what he needs to do. He needs to bring in a top-flight offensive mind and completely turn the show over to him, just like he did when hiring defensive coordinator Mickey Andrews in 1985.
Florida State is in dire need of fresh blood and fresh ideas on offense. In fact, they need to bring in someone who will make everybody on that side of the ball very uncomfortable. In the past the Seminoles won most of their games because they were deeper and more talented than just about everybody else they played. They didn’t have to out-scheme the opposition because their athletes were simply better. That is no longer the case.
Nobody at Florida State has asked my advice but here it is anyway. Make two phone calls. The first is to Jimbo Fisher, the offensive coordinator at LSU. First of all, Fisher should have been a head coach by now. Secondly, a little bird tells me that he is ready to move on if the right offer comes along.
The second call should be to Chris Hatcher, the head coach at Valdosta State. Hatcher runs one of the best offensive schemes in America and won a Division II national championship in 2004. He is young and ready to make the jump to Division I-A.
Florida State has the talent on hand to win the ACC next season. But what Bobby Bowden needs is a fresh approach. He needs to take a hard look in the mirror and reassess every aspect of his program—including the head coach.
Michigan’s Lloyd Carr did that kind of soul searching after a 7-5 season in 2005 and made some very difficult changes. Now the Wolverines are No. 2 and playing Ohio State this Saturday for a spot in the BCS championship game.
At 77, it’s hard to get anybody to step outside of their comfort zone. But Coach Bowden should not let Jeff Bowden’s resignation be the only thing that is different when Florida State goes to spring practice. Bowden can get Florida State back in the mix for the national championship before he retires. But he must have the courage to change.
Great choice by Tar Heels
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Butch Davis is the new head coach at North Carolina. The entire ACC should be glad — and worried. And here’s why.
It’s great for a conference to be balanced and have a lot of good teams. But in the age of the BCS, you better have at least one or two great ones every year that have a chance to play for the BCS national championship.
Wake Forest and Georgia Tech are two great stories and if they play in the ACC championship game a lot of neat things are going to be written. But the fact remains that we are in mid-November and there is no ACC team within sniffing distance of the national championship. In fact, there is no ACC team in the Top 15 of the BCS.
Florida State and Miami, which were supposed to be the benchmark programs after expansion, lie in ruins. Given everything that has happened at Miami, it may be a very long time before the Hurricanes can think of competing for a national title - if ever. Florida State was embarrassed at home by Wake Forest (30-0) last Saturday and Bobby Bowden faces the biggest crisis in his 31 years at the school. Clemson, which looked like it could beat anybody in the world when it played Georgia Tech, now needs to beat South Carolina to finish 9-3.
So the ACC needs something new. The league needs a new burst of energy, something to shake things up.
Butch Davis will do that. He will get the best players in North Carolina and then go into South Florida, where he has all of those contacts, and take quality players away from Miami, which is facing such an uncertain future. He will hire a quality staff. He will take the players on hand and develop them very well.
In short, this is the perfect time for Butch Davis to land at North Carolina. The Tar Heels will contend for an ACC championship sooner rather than later.
An amazing weekend of games
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Looking back on the weekend:
*Here is why college football has the best regular season of any sport on the planet. Just went you think you’ve got it all figured out, here comes a weekend where four Top 10 teams get beat and the national championship deck gets completely reshuffled.
I know a bunch of you guys want a playoff, but if there were a playoff, what happened last week would not be nearly as dramatic. Louisville losing to Rutgers would not mean as much because Louisville could still make the playoffs. Florida almost losing to South Carolina would not have been so big because Florida could still win the SEC championship and make the playoffs.
*I was reminded yesterday why I’m not a big fan of the computer polls when it comes to the BCS. The computers had Rutgers ranked at No. 2, ahead of Ohio State. Is there any level, other than mathematics, where that makes sense?
Get rid of the computers, bring back the strength of schedule component, and add another poll: The Masters Coaches Survey. This panel of former coaches, including Pat Dye, Vince Dooley, Gene Stallings, and Bo Schembechler, are studying games on Monday and Tuesday and then meeting each Wednesday to make their picks. Their expertise is an element that is currently lacking in the process.
*LSU has the best talent in the SEC, but Arkansas has the best team. The Hogs have gotten better each week and Houston Nutt should probably be the SEC Coach of the Year. The great thing is that we’ll have a chance to prove it on the field when Arkansas meets Florida in the SEC championship game. If Arkansas wins out and Southern Cal loses to Oregon or Notre Dame, then the Hogs have a shot at the title game.
*I take back every negative thing I have ever said about LSU quarterback JaMarcus Russell. The past two weeks against Tennessee and Alabama, he has been magnificent. There is no other player in college football like him and if his offensive lines protects, there is not a defense that can stop him.
*After Wake Forest’s Jim Grobe is named the ACC Coach of the Year, he should then become the National Coach of the Year. Wake Forest is 9-1 for the first time in 105 years of college football after beating Florida State 30-0 in Tallahassee. And he’s doing at a place with some of the toughest entrance requirements in the county with a student body of 4,000. Amazing.
Fearless Friday predictions
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
*Thanks to Rutgers, we are getting ready to have a whole lot of fun.
There are 14 teams with one loss or no losses in the Top 15 of the BCS. Before the close of business on Dec. 2, every single one of them will have an opportunity to claim a spot in the national championship game. The BCS formula will have to pick one of them to play the Ohio State-Michigan winner. The rest will be angry.
And what about Rutgers (9-0)? If the Scartlet Knights win at West Virginia on Dec. 2, they can certainly make their case at 12-0. I don’t think Rutgers can get to No. 2, but a trip to a BCS game would not be a bad consolation prize. No matter how you slice it, Rutgers is the best story in college football this season. It’s a tribute to a man with a vision, Greg Schiano, and his ability to get others to buy into it.
*Florida goes into Saturday’s games ranked No. 4 in the BCS standings, but it’s not a slam dunk that the Gators, if they beat South Carolina, will be No. 3 on Sunday when the new ratings are released. No. 5 Texas, with an impressive win over Kansas State, might jump over the Gators.
Can Steve Spurrier come back to The Swamp and beat Florida? They will scare the Gators, but they won’t beat them. Florida 24, South Carolina 14.
*Tennessee is going to have a quarterback controversy in the future. Jonathon Crompton will make his first career start on Saturday against Arkansas, and his ability to run gives the Vols a dimension it lacks with Erik Ainge. Crompton reportedly practiced really well last week leading up to the game with LSU.
If Tennessee finds a way to beat Arkansas, things could get interesting. What the heck, let’s call for the upset as Tennessee DC John Chavis comes up with a plan to slow down the Arkansas running game. Tennessee 17, Arkansas 16.
*Georgia history is filled with undermanned teams going to Auburn and finding a way to win. The Dawgs did it in 1970 to beat Pat Sullivan and Terry Beasley. They did it in 1986 to an Auburn team that finished 10-2. In 1994 Georgia tied an Auburn team that had won 20 straight games.
All those teams had two common denominators: They had heart and eadership. What about this team? We’ll see. Auburn has too much on the line to let this one slip away. Auburn 31, Georgia 17.
*Saturday’s trip to North Carolina is a huge test for Georgia Tech. The Yellow Jackets are going to win the game — that’s not the issue. The question is: Will they slop around or will they take care of business?
Championship teams don’t fool around with inferior opponents, especially on the road. Championship teams jump on top early and put these kind of teams away.
Besides, everybody in the ballpark is wondering when UNC is going to finally announce that they have hired Butch Davis. Here’s betting the Yellow Jackets get it done. Georgia Tech 35, UNC 10.
Thursday question time
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
It’s Thursday and we have questions. Lots and lots of questions.
— If you’re Maryland and you’re hosting Miami on Saturday, how are you supposed to approach this game? Your heart aches for the Miami kids who have lost a teammate. But at the same time you’re in the hunt for a divisional championship. This is a game you really need to win. And how are the Miami guys going to react? Football is really not that important any more-nor should it be. Not after somebody takes a friend’s life. Do you play like somebody ripped your heart out, which they did? Or does this make you more resolved to honor your fallen teammate? I honestly don’t know how I would react if I were a player.
— If Clemson loses to N.C. State on Saturday, are the rumblings about Tommy Bowden going to start again? I think Clemson wins the game, but with N.C. State you never know which team is going to show up. The Tigers (7-3) have a one-point loss to Maryland and a one-point loss to Boston College. They are so close to playing for the ACC championship. The program is on the right track but that won’t keep some fans from complaining.
— What’s going on between Butch Davis and North Carolina? Some Internet reports said the contract has been signed but those are on fan websites. His agent, Marvin Demoff, says nothing has been signed. If North Carolina wanted to make a big splash with the hiring of its coach and, in turn, excite the fan base, this is not the way to go about it. Somehow, like UNC did with Roy Williams, you get the guy signed and have the announcement immediately. Is this thing going to fall apart at the last minute?
— How badly does Steve Spurrier want win at Florida on Saturday? He’s got two quarterbacks (Blake Mitchell and Syvelle Newton) ready to go and a bucket full of ball plays. Knowing this guy, he would like nothing better than to go back to The Swamp and knock the Gators out of any shot of winning the national championship. Spurrier may have two guys on his team who could start for the University of Florida. Doesn’t matter. Nobody is better in a big game than the Ball Coach.
— How is Tennessee going to play at Arkansas? The Vols lost a heart breaking game at home last week to LSU and now they have to go on the road against a very good team. Can Tennessee’s defense slow down that Hog running attack enough to give the Vols a chance? Tennessee can still finish 10-2 and go to a New Year’s Day Bowl. After last season’s 5-6 disaster, that would be a heckuva comeback.
Nobody asked me, but…
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Just one man’s opinion:
1) Every now and then something slaps us in the face to remind us that the games we think are so important are just that - games.
Tuesday night the football players Miami lost a teammate. A mother lost a son. And the University lost another piece of its heart. What had happened to this point was simply a football season gone bad. Now everyone must face a real tragedy.
How does the Miami football program go on? If you’re Donna Shalala, the president of Miami, what do you do? Do you put your players on a plane on Friday and go play Maryland?
I don’t have any answers. It’s just all so sad.
2) Last Saturday people were telling me that Butch Davis to North Carolina was a done deal. Now it’s Wednesday and no announcement has come. Methinks Butch is holding out for a better job. Alabama is the one he wants but I don’t get the sense that the power structure in Tuscaloosa is willing to pull the plug on Mike Shula - yet. Bill Parcells has one foot out the door with the Dallas Cowboys. There are even rumors that some NFL team is going to make Ohio State’s Jim Tressel an offer he can’t refuse.
3) If North Carolina was smart - and except for the hiring of Roy Williams there haven’t been a lot of smart hires there recently - they would forget about Davis, who would just use North Carolina as a stepping stone anyway. Hire somebody who wants this to be his last job. Pick up the phone and call David Cutcliffe (Tennessee OC), Tom O’Brien (Boston College), and Paul Johnson (Navy). Interview all three because all three would fit and none would be looking for another job three years from now.
BCS bowl predictions
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Don’t start making your travel plans just yet, but if the BCS bowl bids went out today, they would probably look something like this. We made some assumptions here but hey, that’s what we get paid to do around here.
SUGAR: Florida (SEC champ) vs. Notre Dame (at-large): Florida could lose in the SEC championship game to Arkansas or somebody else from the West, which would change one side of this bowl. Notre Dame, even if it loses to Southern Cal, is a lock for this bid at 10-2.
ORANGE: Georgia Tech (ACC champ) vs. Auburn (at-large): Georgia Tech should be favored against anybody it plays in Jacksonville (ACC championship game). If Auburn goes 11-1 and does not reach the SEC championship game, the Tigers are a lock for Miami. The only thing that would change it is if Auburn or another SEC team gets in the BCS championship game,
FIESTA: Texas (Big 12 champ) vs. Boise State (at-large): Unless Texas sneaks into the BCS championship game, they will go to the Fiesta if they win the Big 12 championship. Boise State from the WAC will get an automatic BCS bid if it finishes in the Top 12. It is currently No. 14. Boise will also get a bid if it finishes in the Top 16 but ahead of one of the BCS conference champions. All of the contenders for the ACC title are ranked 18 or higher.
ROSE: Michigan (at-large) vs. California (Pac-10 champ): The Michigan-Ohio State loser will get the Rose Bowl as a consolation prize. Right now we think that will be Michigan. The winner of the California-Southern Cal game on Nov. 18 will be the Pac-10 champ if it wins out. Right now California is playing better.
BCS CHAMPIONSHIP: Ohio State (Big Ten champ) vs. Louisville (Big East champ): Ohio State should beat Michigan at home on Nov. 18 and will be in the Big game. Unless Louisville loses to Rutgers Thursday night, they should finish 12-0. The computers already have them at No. 3. An undefeated record will allow them to nose out all of the one-loss teams for the No. 2 spot.
The Louisville issue
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Louisville’s rise to No. 3 in the BCS Standings has touched off an interesting debate. Simply put: Is the BCS championship game supposed to be for the BEST two teams in college football or the two most DESERVING teams in college football?
Here’s the distinction: Most people who don’t have a dog in this fight believe there are several one-loss teams (Texas, Florida, Auburn, Southern Cal, Arkansas) which are better than Louisville (8-0), which gave up a ton of yards in beating West Virginia last Thursday night. That is a reasonable argument.
But the current BCS system, which is based on human polls and computer polls, tends to reward undefeated teams who have played a good schedule. Louisville, which played non-conference Kentucky, Miami, and Kansas State and has to chance to beat undefeated West Virginia and undefeated Rutgers, has played a decent schedule. Boise State (9-0) has not and that’s why the Broncos will never get close to the BCS championship.
With five teams (Louisville, Rutgers, West Virginia, South Florida, Pittsburgh) that have already qualified for bowls and another (Cincinnati, 5-3) close, the Big East can argue that everybody was OK with the system until one of its teams got in position to play for all the marbles. With Georgia losing to Kentucky and Vanderbilt, with Florida struggling against Vandy, with Alabama losing to Mississippi State, it can be argued that the SEC isn’t as strong as it normally is.
Fans of the SEC can argue that Louisville or West Virginia would never survive unscathed through an eight-game SEC schedule that takes its toll both physically and mentally. They are probably right about that.
But that is not how the system is set up. The simple fact is that if you’re in one of the six BCS conferences and you’re undefeated, you are operating at a distinct advantage. If there were a four-team or eight-team playoff at the end of the season, I would venture to say that Louisville would not be seeded No. 2.
Again, that’s beside the point. The six BCS commissioners set up this system to create a guaranteed 1 vs. 2 match-up and to maximize their revenues from television. Last season, when Texas beat Southern Cal 41-38 in the Rose Bowl, the system worked perfectly. This season it may not. They all have to live with the results — as do we.
Dogs, Jackets will persevere
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The fearless Friday Forecast:
— Georgia will fall behind at Kentucky because, no matter how much Mark Richt tries, he will not be able to convince his players that the Wildcats are capable of beating them. The Bulldogs will right the ship in the second half and then win ugly, 24-17. Any win at this stage is a good win for Georgia.
— Georgia Tech will come out flat against N.C. State. It can’t be avoided. But talent and coaching will prevail. Georgia Tech will take control of the game in the third quarter and Calvin Johnson will do something to make the N.C. State defense look pretty silly. Georgia Tech will leave Carter-Finley Stadium just one step away from Jacksonville and the ACC championship game. Georgia Tech 28, N.C. State 17.
— LSU is a more talented team than Tennessee but the Vols will find a way to beat the Tigers on Saturday in Knoxville. Here is the key. If LSU just lines up and runs the ball and uses its talent, then the Tigers will win. But if LSU tries to throw the ball too much, JaMarcus Russell will make a critical mistake. Tennessee would prefer a low scoring game, particularly with quarterback Erik Ainge being a little gimpy. Tennessee 10, LSU 7.
— Clemson will beat Maryland and then pull like heck for Wake Forest against Boston College. The only way for the Tigers to get to Jacksonville is to win out and hope that Boston College loses twice down the stretch. Clemson will not have an easy go of it with Maryland, whose only losses have been to No. 3 West Virginia and Georgia Tech. But then Tigers shake off the beat down they got at Virginia Tech and get it done. Clemson 31, Maryland 17.
— Arkansas has a huge game with Tennessee next week in Fayetteville. So does that mean the Hogs won’t be quite focused when they go to South Carolina on Saturday? The Gamecocks had Tennessee on the ropes last week and let them off. And coach Steve Spurrier knows he is going back to Florida next week for what will be a very emotional game. Arkansas wins a close one. Arkansas 21, South Carolina 20.
Tackling the tough questions
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
We have questions. BOY, do we have questions.
1) Is Georgia going to get at all excited about playing at Kentucky? Georgia has taken some really good teams up to Lexington and struggled. In 1982 Georgia played Penn State for the national championship at the end of the season. But they went to Kentucky and fell behind 14-3 before rallying behind John Lastinger and Herschel Walker to win 27-14. Bottom line: If you can lose to Vanderbilt at home, you can lose to Kentucky on the road.
2) Has there EVER been less buzz about a game between Virginia Tech and Miami? When the ACC brought those two teams in, this was supposed to be a marquee game. Now the heart has been ripped out of the Miami program and Virginia Tech, despite coming off a big win against Clemson, is looking up at Georgia Tech in the ACC Coastal. Wonder if Miami will put up a fight? Sorry, poor choice of words. Will Miami muster up the effort to make this a game?
3) If Clemson (7-2) is not going to the ACC championship game, what do the Tigers have to play for? A lot, actually. By winning its final three games with Maryland, N.C. State, and South Carolina, Clemson can finish 10-2. And with that record, Tiger fans, you can start booking hotel rooms in Atlanta for the Chick-fil-A Bowl. Clemson still has an outside shot at reaching the ACC championship if it wins out and Boston College loses twice in its final four games with Wake Forest, Duke, Maryland, and Miami.
4) Is Florida going to slop around at Vanderbilt or are the Gators going to take care of business? Vanderbilt will be well prepared as they always are under Bobby Johnson. Given the recent struggles of the Florida offense, this game might be closer than the experts think. This may be the game where we see freshman quarterback Tim Tebow play a larger role while senior QB Chris Leak, who got “dinged up” against Georgia, gets some rest. The No. 4 Gators had better remember that there are some style points to be won on Saturday, particularly if No. 3 West Virginia loses tonight at Louisville.
5) With Xavier Lee getting his second start at quarterback, is Florida State due for a breakout game against Virginia? Yes and it will happen. The Seminoles found a spark last week with Lee, the more mobile quarterback. FSU rolled up enough yards to win but a banged up defense couldn’t stop Maryland. Bobby Bowden needs something good to happen to quiet some of the grumbling. A big win over Virginia won’t cure all ills - not by a long shot. But it will calm things down a bit - at least until Florida comes to Tallahassee on Nov. 25.
Angst over the rankings
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Just one man’s opinion:
1) Thursday night’s West Virginia-Louisville showdown will be the biggest football game in the history of the Big East conference. Why? Because when the Big East lost Miami, Virginia Tech, and Boston College to the ACC, there were universal predictions that it was done as a football conference. Now the Big East has two teams in the top five of the BCS playing in the most-anticipated Thursday night game that ESPN has ever had. And the winner has a very real shot at playing for the BCS national championship. That’s not bad for a conference that some said would eventually be stripped of its automatic BCS bid.
2) Oklahoma coach Bob Stoops wants the Big 12 to do away with divisional play and get rid of the conference championship game. In exchange he’s willing increase the number of conference games from 8 to 9.
As my daddy used to say when I asked for money: “Son, it ain’t gonna happen.”
Aside from the money generated by conference championship games, and its as much as $1 million for every school in the conference, “Championship Saturday” has become part of the college football culture. Like conference basketball tournaments set up the NCAA Tournament selections on Sunday, the championship games set up the BCS.
Sorry, Coach Stoops. That horse is already out of the barn.
3) You can bet that all six of the BCS commissioners will be looking at tonight’s Fresno State-Boise State game. Because if Boise State, which is ranked No. 14 in the BCS, doesn’t lose tonight it probably isn’t going to lose. And if Boise State finishes 12-0 there is a very good chance the Broncos will get an at-large BCS bid and a payment of $9.27 million from the BCS revenue pool. That’s $9 million that the big boys won’t get. That’s why the non-BCS conferences fought so hard to get the fifth BCS bowl created and for them to have greater access to the system. This is the payday they have been waiting for.
