AJC > Sports > Blog > Archives > 2006 > September
September 2006
Forecasting a Hokies win
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Here are this week’s picks in the Fearless Friday Forecast:
Georgia Tech will lead Virginia Tech at halftime. Then the Hokies will score a defensive touchdown or a special teams touchdown in the second half to take control of the game. Virginia Tech 17, Georgia Tech 10.
Houston and its high-flying passing attack will be competitive for a half against Miami. The Hurricanes will win the game by double digits but the Miami fans will continue to be mad and call for Larry Coker’s head. Miami 31, Houston 17.
Iowa will lead No. 1 Ohio State going into the fourth quarter at Kinnick Stadium. But then the Buckeyes will intercept a Drew Tate pass and quarterback Troy Smith will make a play that gets on SportsCenter for the second consecutive week. Ohio State 24, Iowa 21.
The blitzes that Alabama defensive coordinator Joe Kines used against Arkansas freshman quarterback Mitch Mustain won’t be as effective against Florida senior Chris Leak. Leak will beat at least one of those blitzes for a touchdown as the Gators beat Bama (28-14) and move to 5-0. Some Florida fans will still want freshman Tim Tebow to be the starting quarterback.
Since Virginia and Duke face each other, one will pick up their only ACC win of the season. The loser will go 0-8 in the league. We like Virginia in an ugly game 14-7.
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Answering the tough questions
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
We’ve got questions. We also have answers. Do they match? You be the judge.
1) Is Alabama in trouble as it goes to Florida?
Sure looks that way. First of all, it’s hard for a team to quickly get over a crushing loss like the one at Arkansas (24-23), a game in which the Crimson Tide outplayed the competition on the road but was passive in overtime. Secondly, Bama will probably find an angry bunch of Gators in the Swamp. They remember the 31-3 beat down they got last year in Tuscaloosa. This one could get ugly.
2) Who is going to start at quarterback for Georgia against Ole Miss?
It doesn’t matter but the smart money is on Matthew Stafford, with the understanding that Joe Cox is definitely going to play. Understand that what happened to Stafford against Colorado is going to happen again. It always does with freshman quarterbacks. But starting Stafford at Oxford keeps the kid’s confidence up and Cox has proven he is mature beyond his years. The good news is that Ole Miss is so bad that quarterback play should not be an issue this week.
3) If Auburn gets a chance to hang a big number on South Carolina Thursday night on ESPN, will Tommy Tuberville do it?
What do you think? There is only one college football game on tonight and the whole nation, including the voters in the coaches and Harris polls, will be watching. Tuberville knows what it is like to finish No. 3 with a great football team and it doesn’t feel good. So if Auburn tacks on an extra touchdown at the end for style points, there is no reason to criticize. The coaches didn’t invent this BCS game. But they have to play it.
4) Can Georgia Tech win at Virginia Tech, where they got waxed 51-7 last season?
This is going to drive my Georgia Tech friends crazy, because they have images of Calvin Johnson catching 10 balls a game for 150 yards and three or four touchdowns. But if Georgia Tech tries to play that game they will get beat badly again. The Yellow Jackets’ best hope is to control the ball, keep the crowd out of the game, and let the defense win it. If the score is 14-10, Georgia Tech has a chance. If somebody scores in the 20s, it will be Virginia Tech and the Hokies will win.
5) What is the most unusual statement we will hear this weekend?
It seems like every weekend I hear something uttered that I’ve never heard before. A couple of weeks ago it was: “Take Rutgers and lay the 10 1/2 points.”
This weekend it will be: “Clemson may be looking past Saturday’s game with Louisiana Tech because they are looking ahead to next week’s trip to Wake Forest.”
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Assessing the Heisman candidates
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
An early handicap on the Heisman Trophy Race:
Troy Smith, QB, Ohio State: Take a good look at the acrobatic play he made against Penn State last week. You’re going to be seeing it for the rest of the season and so will the 900-plus Heisman Trophy voters. Remember that stats are important, but making the highlight package on SportsCenter on Saturday night is even more important if you want to win the Heisman.
Brady Quinn, QB, Notre Dame: Quinn’s Heisman hopes were all but dead going into the fourth quarter of last Saturday night’s game with Michigan State. But he led the miraculous comeback on national television while throwing for five touchdowns. Given Notre Dame’s easy schedule, Quinn should be in the hunt all the way to the Sept. 25 game.
Steve Slaton, RB, West Virginia: Averaging 6.8 yards per carry on a team that is going to roll up some big numbers against a less than challenging schedule. But don’t let the lack of competition fool you. This guy is really, really good.
Adrian Peterson, RB, Oklahoma: Ran for 211 yards against Oregon in a game the Sooners should have won. Has four straight 100 yards games and a total of 625. That puts him on pace to come close to 2,000. If he comes up big next week against Texas, Peterson will be in it the rest of the way.
Calvin Johnson, WR, Georgia Tech: Johnson is the best wide receiver in college football and you can make a strong case that he is the best player in the game, period. He won’t get the gaudy numbers but once people see him play the “wow” factor is hard to ignore. Needs a big game to jump on everybody’s radar. Saturday at Virginia Tech would be a good place to start.
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Five coaches in rough spots
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
When you think you’re having a bad day or a bad month, just be glad you’re not these coaches:
1) Dirk Koetter, Arizona State: Koetter made headlines this summer when he awarded the starting quarterback job to senior Sam Keller only to change his mind 48 hours later after meeting with some of his players. Sophomore Rudy Carpenter, who was awarded the job, has thrown eight interceptions in four games. And because Koetter embarrassed Keller, the Sun Devils (3-1), who got waxed by Cal 42-21 in their Pac-10 opener, don’t have a plan B.
2) John Bunting, North Carolina: Bunting was a great NFL linebacker. He is honest. He is straightforward. His kids graduate. But inexplicably, the Tar Heels can’t play defense; giving up over 500 yards in each of the past two weeks to Furman (yes Furman), and Clemson. Bunting’s position after the Clemson loss (52-7) was that every aspect of the UNC football program is on schedule - except for the wins and losses. That’s like me telling my wife that every aspect of our family finances are on schedule, except for the fact that I haven’t made a house payment in five years.
3) Larry Coker, Miami: I now wonder if there is anything Coker can do to save himself short of winning the ACC championship. Some of the hard line Miami folks are convinced that the U. has lost something under Coker’s watch. What they’ve lost is the Big East schedule that gave them more breathers than they have now. Are they really going to bring back Butch Davis? Will that work?
4) Ed Orgeron, Ole Miss: After the Rebels signed a nationally-ranked recruiting class in February, the Ole Miss faithful were convinced they were off and running. But quarterback Brent Schaeffer, who didn’t get there until August because of academic issues, is struggling. Could it be because he’s still learning the names of his offensive linemen? When you get blown out at home by an undermanned Wake Forest team, you are not having a good month.
5) Ron Zook, Illinois: The Zooker won this first two games as the Illinois coach last season but since then not a whole lot has gone right. The Illini have lost 12 of their last 13 games, the only win coming against I-AA Eastern Illinois. This week Illinois goes to Michigan State, which is not in a particularly good mood after blowing a game against Notre Dame.
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The TB Top 10
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
1: Ohio State (4-0): If the Buckeyes don’t lose at Iowa on Saturday, they will be undefeated when they host Michigan on Nov. 18. Because of the impressive win at Texas, the pollsters will not move Ohio State from No. 1 as long as they win.
2: Auburn (4-0): Tigers are No. 3 in the coaches poll and the Harris poll, the two that are used in the BCS formula. Because of their non-conference schedule, they need to start winning with some style points. At South Carolina Thursday night would be a good place to start.
3: USC (3-0): Have actually looked mortal the past two games. Trojans get a lot of street cred because of what they’ve done the past four years. That’s not fair, but it is reality.
4: Florida (4-0): If the winner of the Florida at Auburn game on Oct. 14 is undefeated, that team should be No. 2 in the first BCS Standings. Will they? The computers will probably decide.
5: Michigan (4-0): Wolverines were in a classic trap game with Wisconsin last Saturday but took care of business.
6: West Virginia (4-0): Very talented but there is no ignoring the schedule-or the lack of it. Still, the Mountaineers could be number two if the teams above them lose.
7: Louisville (4-0): Have shown incredible depth after losing Brian Brohm and Michael Bush. The Cardinals host West Virginia on Nov. 2.
8: LSU (3-1): The best one-loss team in America. The Tigers also have the toughest road ahead with trips to Florida, Tennessee, and Arkansas.
9: Texas (3-1): Texas has the best chance among the one-loss teams. Beat Oklahoma on Oct. 7 and the Longhorns should be 12-1, with the only loss coming to No. 1 Ohio State.
10: Georgia (4-0): Looks like the Bulldogs are pretty good but not championship good. We’ll find out in the next two weeks if they are ready for prime time.
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The Fearless Friday forecast
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
1: Clemson at North Carolina: Saturday’s game with North Carolina is the kind that scares Clemson fans to death. The Tigers are coming off one of the biggest wins of the Tommy Bowden era at Florida State last week. Clemson is now back in the hunt for the ACC Atlantic Division. In the past, this is when the Tigers tend to let down and lose to an inferior opponent. Playing at home, this Clemson team is too good to let that happen. At least I think it is.
2: Colorado at Georgia: Georgia’s defense is pretty good. It might be great but I have to see it against an SEC contender. The offense is a work in progress under The Kid. Saturday’s game with the 0-3 Buffs is about getting ready to play Ole Miss on the road next week and Tennessee at home on Oct. 7. Just remember that Colorado had a bunch of starters returning and that Dan Hawkins is a good coach. The light is going to come on sooner or later. But it ain’t going to happen Between the Hedges. Not with that defense.
3: Boston College at N.C. State: When his team lost to Akron two weeks ago N.C. State coach Chuck Amato noted that Akron takes academic non-qualifiers. After getting thumped at Southern Miss (37-17) last week, Amato wondered if he set expectations too high at N.C. State and compared himself to Lee Iacocca. God bless Coach Amato. He is the gift who keeps on giving. Saturday he plays another talented, well-coached team. Stay tuned. After three close games, two decided in overtime, BC is ready to break out.
4: Wake Forest at Ole Miss: Wake Forest has lost its quarterback, Ben Mauck, and its best running back, Micah Andrews. Still the Deacons are 3-0. Few people outside the football world know this, but Jim Grobe is one of the best coaches in the country. Can he come up with a plan to allow his little people to beat the big, fast people of Ole Miss? The Rebels ought to win this one despite their struggles of the last two weeks. But a little bird tells me that Wake Forest will do something special on Saturday in Oxford.
5: Alabama at Arkansas: There is no logical reason to pick Alabama in this game. The Tide is 3-0 against Hawaii, Vanderbilt and Louisiana-Monroe. The running game, which is supposed to be the strength of the team, has not been impressive. Arkansas is playing at home and has placed its hope in Mitch Mustain, the talented freshman quarterback. But I just get the feeling that the Tide has been kind of laying in the weeds and getting its ducks in a row for this game. I think Joe Kines is a great defensive coordinator and has a plan for the rookie QB. I think Alabama will win the game. But, as we prove in this space each week, I could be wrong.
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Five critical games to watch
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Last weekend was one of the best ever in college football when it comes to great matchups, controversial plays, and just general talk about the game. This weekend? Not so much. Still there are questions that have to be answered. For example:
1) Will Xavier Lee see action at quarterback when Florida State hosts Rice? Bobby Bowden said this week that if the offense, which is near the bottom of Division I-A in rushing, doesn’t come around soon, he is “going to have to do some soul-searching.” Rather than searching his soul, Coach Bowden might search and find some offensive linemen who know how to run block against a quality defense. Florida State needs some kind of identity, some kind of energy, in its offense. Maybe Lee, the athletic quarterback, can give them that.
2) Has Alabama figured things out? There hasn’t been a whole lot to get excited about in wins over Hawaii, Vanderbilt and Louisiana-Monroe. The offense has sputtered and the rebuilt defense has had some tackling problems. But Alabama has been pointing to its SEC opener with Arkansas all summer as the time when all facets of its team must come together. To me, it’s pretty basic. If Ken Darby gets 100 yards, the Tide wins.
3) Will Michigan suffer a letdown against Wisconsin? The Wolverines’ win at Notre Dame was one of the biggest of the Lloyd Carr era, perhaps the biggest since the national championship of 1997. Wisconsin is 3-0 but hasn’t beaten anybody. Carr really likes this team but believes it is just as hard to handle success as it is adversity. Michigan wants desperately to be undefeated when it goes to Ohio State on Nov. 18.
4) Could Notre Dame go down again? Everybody knows the book on Notre Dame now. If you have a good quarterback and some fast receivers then you can beat the Irish defense. Drew Stanton lit up Notre Dame last season in winning 44-41 at South Bend. After the game the Michigan State players went a little crazy and planted the school flag on the field at Notre Dame Stadium. Coach Charlie Weis and the Irish players haven’t forgotten.
5) Is Louisville vulnerable at Kansas State? You bet your Papa John they are. The Cardinals are coming off one of the biggest wins in school history (31-7 over Miami) and will be without quarterback Brian Brohm, who injured a thumb and is out 3-6 weeks. Heck, just getting to Manhattan, Kan., will be a culture shock for some of these guys. Louisville has better players but this is a letdown game if ever I’ve seen one. Should be interesting.
Replay rules can be improved
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
So we now know the instant replay system isn’t perfect. No one ever said it was. But from the fiasco that took place at the Oklahoma-Oregon game, there is a chance to learn. Here are some changes that could be made to improve the system.
1) Expand the standard officiating crew to include the replay official. Some leagues use retired officials and frankly that’s not fair to them. Except for the running around part, the job of the replay official is now under more pressure than the guys on the field.
2) It would cost some money, but the replay official probably needs to be neutral. If he represents either conference it opens up charges of favoritism-even if it’s subconscious. I don’t know if it’s practical, but I’m not sure it’s fair to be putting all of this on one man. I’m not real big on doing things by committee, but it might be wise to have more than one guy making the call.
3) Any game changing play in the final two minutes of the game is automatically reviewed. In basketball a winning shot at or near the final buzzer is automatically reviewed. Should be the same in football. And in the final two minutes ALL plays can be reviewed-even calls of pass interference.
4) In games with controversial calls the referee and the replay official must be publicly accountable immediately after the game. In many cases the referee will talk to a pool reporter representing the media and that’s fine. But the replay official must do so as well. If the teenage cornerback who got beat for a touchdown has to explain his actions, so do the officials.
5) The NCAA left it up to the conferences to pick their own replay equipment. That needs to change. Decide what the best technology is and mandate that everyone who plays Division I-A football use it. A replay official should never use the excuse that his equipment wasn’t good enough.
Instant-replays: They’re only ‘human’
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
I guess college football’s instant replay system comes under the heading of “Be careful what you wish for.”
The idea of the system, which began two seasons ago, was to eliminate the catastrophic mistake - the one that determines the winning or losing of a game. Officials are human and the game on the field, one official told me, is faster than anyone really knows.
But the same technology that allows a replay official in the booth to review every play also allows the public to make their own judgments. And when the replay official clearly gets it wrong, like the guy from the Pac-10 did Saturday in the Oklahoma-Oregon game, there is no place to hide. He’s like a 5-10 cornerback trying to cover Calvin Johnson. The poor guy has no chance.
The Pac-10 replay official, Gordon Riese, has received death threats to him and his family. Let’s don’t go into how sick that is, only to say that if the feds can trace the call, that person should do some serious jail time.
What about the play in the LSU-Auburn, you ask? As it turned out, that was a totally different animal than Oklahoma-Oregon. A pass interference call came late against Auburn that was reversed on the field. It was big because it gave Auburn the ball back in a crucial time of the game.
Replays showed contact on the LSU receiver. But that play, which was not reviewable by the replay official in the booth, was changed on the field because the correct rule was applied. Before the ball got to the receiver it was tipped by another defender, making it uncatchable, the SEC officials ruled. If the ball is uncatchable, then there can be no interference. That’s the rule.
Everyone here needs to stop and take a deep breath because at the end of the day it is just a damned football game. The Pac-10 official is thinking about quitting because of the threats and what this is doing to his health. I don’t care who you pull for, that’s not right.
I feel for the kids at Oklahoma because, like all football players, they worked really hard to get ready for that game. In this case the only explanation they get is that an adult made a mistake. But one of the passages into manhood is learning that sometimes in life bad things happen. The test is how you cope with the adversity.
And this applies to fans and players and coaches and everybody. If the worst thing that happens in your life is losing a football game because of a bad officiating call, then consider yourself blessed.
Let’s move on.
Tony’s Top 10* (*BCS not included)
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The first BCS Standings won’t be released until Oct. 15, but based on the first three weeks of the season here are the Top 10 in the TB Standings.* (And no, it doesn’t stand for Totally Bogus.*)
1: Ohio State (3-0): I had Auburn No. 1 in preseason Top 25 in the AJC. But when a team marches into Texas and dominates the way the Buckeyes did on Sept. 9, they deserve some props.
2: Auburn (3-0): That 7-3 win over LSU was one of the most intense games I’ve ever seen. The Tigers won’t see a defense better than that unless it’s Florida, who comes to Jordan-Hare on Oct. 14.
3: USC (3-0): Thought the Trojans might dominate Nebraska but they just looked like a very good football team. They will not be challenged again until Nov. 11 vs. Oregon.
4: Florida (3-0): Looks like the Gators have found themselves a running back in DeShawn Wynn and that’s big. All four guys on their defensive front will be playing on Sunday.
5: West Virginia (3-0): Speed, speed, speed. The team that wins the West Virginia-Louisville game on Nov. 2 is going to be undefeated. But will that be good enough?
6: Michigan (3-0): Lloyd Carr is a very good football coach. Always has been. He shook up his staff and now the Wolverines are playing with some fire.
7: Georgia (3-0): Don’t look now but this could be the best defense Georgia has had in the Mark Richt era. If the Bulldogs don’t have any injuries in the offensive line, this team could have a special year.
8: LSU (2-1): The best one-loss team in America. Can’t wait until the Tigers go to Florida on Oct. 7.
9: Texas (2-1): There is still a lot of talent in Austin. This team is very capable of going 12-1 and winning the Big 12 title again.
10: Louisville (3-0): The scary thing is: How good would this team be WITH Michael Bush? Got to get quarterback Brian Brohm back for West Virginia on Nov. 2.
Taking the Vols in a hunch
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Let’s review last Friday’s Fearless Forecast:
—Georgia will win comfortably. Right.
—Clemson will win by a field goal. Tigers lost by a blocked PAT.
—Texas will beat Ohio State. Way wrong.
—Cal will beat Minnesota. Right.
—Ole Miss will upset Missouri on the road… Way, way, wrong.
Hope none of you are putting down bets on this stuff. It is, however, the Fearless Forecast so let’s try, try again.
Logically, Florida should win Saturday night’s game at Tennessee. The Gators have looked pretty strong in their first two games and have found lightning in a bottle with rookie wide receiver Percy Harvin. Tennessee has one defensive starter (DB Inky Johnson) out and another (DT Justin Harrell), who is hurting. But I just get the sense that this Tennessee team is really close and really determined to find a way to win this game. Call me crazy but I’m going with Tennessee 20, Florida 17.
LSU just might make all of us look stupid this weekend. The whole world has been picking Auburn since this summer. But LSU’s complete domination of Arizona last week was one of the most impressive performances I’ve seen in a while. There is a lot of talent on that team and if quarterback JaMarcus Russell doesn’t make mistakes, LSU is very hard to beat. I’m still picking Auburn, 24-20, but I’m not going to be shocked if LSU proves all the experts wrong.
After watching West Virginia destroy Maryland last night, I can’t wait until the Mountaineers go to Louisville on Nov. 2. But for that game to be a matchup of Top 10 teams, Louisville needs to make a statement when it hosts Miami. People in Louisville have been pointing to this game since the Cardinals lost at Miami 41-38 two years ago. But here’s something to keep in mind. This may be the biggest home game Louisville has ever played. Miami plays these kinds of games just about every week. When an opponent throws down the gauntlet, Miami usually responds. Louisville has a great offense, but it hasn’t seen a defense like Miami’s. Miami 17, Louisville 16.
Texas had the nation’s longest winning streak (21 games) when it lost to Ohio State last Saturday. Now TCU has the top streak at 12. That ends Saturday when Texas Tech comes to Fort Worth.
Nebraska says that its game at Southern Cal is a measuring stick of how far the program has come under Bill Callahan. The Trojans, who have had a week off, will take that stick and beat the Cornhuskers over the head with it. Southern Cal 45, Nebraska 17.
Five prickly questions answered
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
On a college football weekend like this, the best place to be is sitting on your couch with four televisions and a universal remote control. With seven games featuring two teams in the Top 25 plus the Bowden Bowl (Clemson vs. Florida State), there are a lot of questions that are going to be answered. Here are my Top 5.
1) Is Florida’s Percy Harvin all that? The early returns are that this kid is special and will give the Gators their best big play potential since the days of Ike Hilliard, Reidel Anthony, and Jacquez Green. Tennessee will be missing one of its starting defensive backs in Inky Johnson. Harvin has looked good against two very respectable defenses in Southern Miss and UCF. Now can he do it on a prime time stage?
2) Will Auburn’s John Vaughn be called upon to make a game-winning field goal against LSU? Last season Vaughn missed five kicks in Auburn’s 20-17 overtime loss to LSU. Vaughn got back to town and the outside of his apartment had been trashed. His response was to work harder and get better. Since that bad night in Baton Rouge he has made 10 of his 12 field goals. He got into shape, consulted with some kicking coaches, and has improved his range. He kicked a 55-yarder last week against Mississippi State. That’s the way an athlete -or any of us for that matter- should react to adversity.
3) Is Saturday’s game at Louisville the ultimate gut check for Miami? It says something about the state of Miami’s program that the Hurricanes are an underdog going into Louisville’s Papa John’s Stadium. The team that other teams once feared simply does not have that look of invincibility -some use the word swagger- that it once enjoyed. A Louisville player went public this week saying that Miami had lost its swagger, which is something an opponent would have never done in years past. Usually Miami responds when its manhood is challenged.
4) What’s going to happen at Clemson if the Tigers lose at Florida State? This was going to be Clemson’s year but now it looks like the dream of an ACC championship could be lost by mid-September. There are few college teams, if any, who have lost three key defensive starters by the second game. If things don’t go well in Tallahassee, where Clemson has never won under Tommy Bowden, can the Tiger coach hold things together for the rest of the season?
5) Can Southern Cal lay half a hundred on Nebraska? The Trojans were supposed to be in a rebuilding mode but they went to Arkansas on Sept. 2 and played a team that had been gearing up for them all summer. That final, in case you missed it, was Southern Cal 50, Arkansas 14. The Trojans took last week off to get well rested and will now entertain Nebraska. If this game is really competitive then it tells us that the Trojans are good, but mere mortals again. If Southern Cal wins big, they might start making their reservations for Glendale, Ariz., site of the BCS championship game.
Inexcusable excuses from N.C. State coach
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Just one man’s opinion:
We now know why N.C. State lost to Akron 20-17 last Saturday.
It wasn’t because, when N.C. State scored to take a 17-14 lead with 1:07 left, the Wolfpack was flagged for an excessive celebration penalty. That gave Akron good field position to start their winning drive.
It wasn’t because, when Akron scored a controversial touchdown on the last play of the game, N.C. State couldn’t challenge the call. The Wolfpack was out of time outs.
N.C. State, who has invested millions upon millions in facilities, lost to tiny Akron, said coach Chuck Amato, because the Zips take academic non-qualifiers. ACC schools do not.
“Do you know what kind of players non-qualifiers are, usually? They’re inversely proportional to what their grade-point average is. They can make a big difference,” said the N.C. State coach at his weekly press briefing.
Well, let’s look at that. Let’s set aside the fact that Amato’s remark was petty and insensitive to kids from tough backgrounds who have overcome a lot to get academically qualified.
It is just not a wise thing to denigrate the credentials of an opponent after they just came to your place and whipped your butt.
When you’re 23-25 in the ACC, 3-5 the past two seasons, it’s just not wise to sit in judgement of anyone.
And when you’ve gone through as many assistant coaches and first round draft choices as Amato, it is REALLY not wise to make excuses of any kind.
What will happen Saturday if N.C. State loses at Southern Mississippi? Will Amato complain because there were no direct flights from Raleigh to Hattiesburg?
Winners don’t make excuses when they lose. Winners say “we got outplayed and out-coached.” Winners take full responsibility.
Give me a break.
Odds don’t favor SEC teams
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
I know it’s early. I know the college football season is very, very long. But if I’m Auburn or any other SEC team I’m just a tad nervous right now. Not much. Just a little.
Two years ago Auburn did the unthinkable by going undefeated in the regular season, winning the SEC championship game and then getting shut out of the BCS championship, which was decided by Southern Cal and Oklahoma. After the Sooners got waxed at the Orange Bowl, the SEC and the Tigers cried foul. SEC commissioner Mike Slive was a gentleman through it all but, behind the scenes, vowed it wouldn’t happen again to another one of his teams.
But have you looked closely at the polls? The BCS standings are still a month away but if you take the AP and Coaches polls and total the points, here is what you’d have.
1….Ohio State……….3185 2…Southern Cal……..2917 3…Notre Dame………2895 4….Auburn…………..2816 5….W. Virginia……….2673
In 2004 Southern Cal and Oklahoma began the season ranked 1-2 and never lost. Auburn played its way up to No. 3 but could never crack the top two.
Here is what should make the Tigers and the rest of the SEC nervous.
After beating No. 2 Texas last Saturday, Ohio State will stay No. 1 for the rest of the season if the Buckeyes don’t lose. If Ohio State doesn’t lose at Iowa on Sept. 30, I think the Buckeyes are looking at 12-0.
Southern Cal and Notre Dame meet on Nov. 25 in Los Angeles. If both are undefeated when that game is played, the pollsters just might decide that the No. 2 spot should go to the winner. The computer polls could override it, but I kind of doubt it.
That means Auburn, LSU, Georgia, Florida or any undefeated SEC team could have a very tough time playing its way into the Top 2 if Southern Cal or Notre Dame do not lose. Florida would have the best chance of jumping over one of those teams into No. 2 because they play a ridiculously hard schedule. In fact, if the Gators go 13-0 and don’t get in with that schedule, the BCS just might blow up.
Like I said, it’s early. None of this will probably happen. But if it does, just remember that old Tony warned you. And I can promise you that the SEC Commissioner, who just so happens to be the BCS Coordinator this season, will not be a happy camper.
Buckeyes a real eye-opener
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
What we learned over the weekend:
1. I was wrong about Ohio State. They are probably the best team in the country because quarterback Troy Smith has grown into a big-time passer with blazing speed. And the defense is much better than I thought. Could an SEC team beat Ohio State on a given night on a neutral site? Absolutely. But here’s the bottom line: The Buckeyes are No. 1 in both polls and if they don’t lose at Iowa on Sept. 30, I expect them to run the table and play for the BCS championship.
2. The team that would face Ohio State in Glendale, Ariz., could be determined on Nov. 25 when Notre Dame goes to USC. The only team I see in the Pac-10 with a chance to beat USC is Oregon, and that game is in the L.A. Coliseum. If Notre Dame gets by Michigan on Saturday, I expect the Irish to be unbeaten when they go to USC. How big will that game be?
3. So where does this leave the SEC, you ask? The SEC is so strong it’s just hard to see somebody going undefeated. A 12-1 SEC championship team might be able to jump over a 12-0 West Virginia, but not a 12-0 USC or Notre Dame. But if Auburn, Florida, Georgia, LSU, or Tennessee or anybody goes 13-0 in this SEC, they deserve to be in Glendale, Ariz.
4. Florida State’s sloppy and uninspired performance against Troy could cost the Seminoles a shot at the national championship. After beating Miami, the Seminoles had the schedule set up to where they could go undefeated. But if there are more than two undefeated teams, the pollsters won’t forget last Saturday night in Tallahassee. Is that fair? Probably not but that’s the system.
5. The national media still isn’t giving Georgia Tech enough credit for their performance in a 14-10 loss to Notre Dame. All the stories of Notre Dame’s 41-14 win over Penn State talked about how bad the Irish offense played in Atlanta. Notre Dame scored 14 points because Jon Tenuta and the Tech defense thoroughly confused quarterback Brady Quinn and coach Charlie Weis.
Fearlessly forecasting an unpredictable season
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
I could be wrong. I often am. But based on last week’s games, I think this is going to one of the most unpredictable college football seasons we have had. To that end, we will start a new tradition today with our first Fearless Friday Forecast.
After fretting about the trip to Columbia all summer, Georgia will win comfortably at South Carolina. The Ball Coach is doing everything he can to compensate for an offensive line that is struggling. Blake Mitchell, meet Quentin Moses and Charles Johnson. By late Saturday night you’ll be well acquainted.
Clemson suffered a real blow when linebacker Anthony Waters was lost for the season but the Tigers will still win at Boston College. BC will try to play smash mouth like they did last season when the Eagles won at Clemson and it will work for a half. Clemson has too many weapons and will win on a late field goal.
As regular season games go it just doesn’t get any better than No. 1 Ohio State going to No. 2 Texas. The Buckeyes are good but their defense gave up almost 300 yards of total offense to Northern Illinois running back Garrett Wolfe. Look for the Longhorns to run the ball and keep Troy Smith and the Ohio State offense off the field. Let’s call it Texas 24, Ohio State 21.
Who is pulling hardest for California today when they host Minnesota? That would be Tennessee, which just stomped the Golden Bears last Saturday in Knoxville. A win over a solid Big Ten team by Cal would further validate Tennessee’s victory and set the table for next week’s showdown with Florida. California is not the No. 9 team in the nation but the Bears are good and will beat Minnesota.
In beating Memphis last Sunday, Ole Miss showed that it is going to have some offensive firepower and will not be a walkover for the rest of the SEC. Ed Orgeron has given the Rebels a big dose of attitude and they will show it again on Saturday when they go on the road and beat Missouri.
Titles worth chasing
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
This ain’t Oprah’s Book Club, but occasionally we’ll talk about the stack of reading material on my desk. Here are some suggestions for college football lovers to pass the time as they are riding to the game.
1) “Pure Gold” (Sports Publishing LLC) is probably the best inside look at Bobby Bowden and the Florida State program ever written. Steve Ellis of the Tallahassee Democrat and Bill Vilona of the Penscola News sat down with dozens of people close to Bowden, including Georgia coach Mark Richt, his sons Tommy, Terry, and Jeff, Sue Hall, his long-time secretary, and Billy Smith, the Florida state trooper who is always by his side. It’s compelling stuff.
2) “The Missing Ring” (St. Martin’s Press) is the story of how Alabama’s 11-0 1966 team was denied the national championship because of the politics of polling. The pollsters gave Notre Dame (9-0-1) the title that season despite a 10-10 tie with Michigan State. When it comes to Alabama football, nobody does a better job of research and reporting than Keith Dunnavant and this is another masterful job. Dunnavant goes back 40 years and talks to the key Alabama players of that era, who have not forgotten the pain. If you’re an Alabama fan, it still hurts today.
3) “Rammer, Jammer Yellow Hammer” (Crown Publishers). This one has been out a while but I’m just now getting to it. It is simply the best piece of work about fans and their passion for college football in the South that I have ever read. Warren St. John jumps into the subject with both feet, riding with the RV brigade that loyally follows the University of Alabama. If you have a friend from the North who doesn’t quite understand how we feel about football in the South, give him this book.
4) “Once A Vol, Always A Vol” (Sports Publishing LLC). No two living men have seen more Tennessee football than Haywood Harris and Gus Manning, who have worked for the school a combined 101 years in various capacities. They have interviewed a number great Tennessee stars who told their own stories in their own words. Peyton Manning wrote the forward.
5) “Orange Crushed” (Jefferson Press) tells the story of Tennessee’s ill-fated 2005 season when the Vols went 5-6. Darren Epps, who covers the team for the Chattanooga Times Free Press, gives some good behind the scenes stuff. Better read it quickly, though. If the Vols beat Florida next week, then 2005 will be a distant memory.
Shula sets poor example
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
In my work I have been pretty positive about Mike Shula since he became the head coach at the University of Alabama.
When the fans and media took their shots at Shula’s nervous performance in his first press conference, I said that you have to let a new coach grow into the job.
When Alabama lost at home to Northern Illinois in 2003 I reminded people that the MAC gives scholarships, too. I have repeatedly said that if school officials weren’t willing to give Shula five years to rebuild the program, given the mess that it was in, then he shouldn’t have been hired in the first place.
Every time I am asked about Mike Shula I have described him as a young, talented coach who has learned how to surround himself with very good people. After going 10-2 last season, I have predicted that Alabama would go through a transition year in 2006 and have a very good chance to win the SEC championship in 2007.
In short, I have been overwhelmingly positive about Mike Shula and his handling of the Alabama football program since he took over in 2003.
But not today.
Today we part company. Today I am sad for Mike Shula and I am sad for the great football program at the University of Alabama.
Earlier this year linebacker Juwan Simpson was arrested for marijuana possession and for having a stolen handgun.
Faced with alcohol-related transgressions from some players, Auburn coach Tommy Tuberville handed down game suspensions, the only penalty that really matters, back in July.
Tarell Brown, a three-year starting cornerback at Texas, committed the exact same infraction - a gun and some pot in his car - on Monday. Coach Mack Brown didn’t hesitate after getting all the facts and by Tuesday had suspended the player for Saturday’s big game with No. 1 Ohio State. Given the fact that Ohio State’s best player is a wide receiver, that decision could cost Texas the game and a shot at the national championship.
Juwan Simpson, who reached a plea agreement on his charges, played for Alabama last Saturday against the University of Hawaii.
Let’s make this clear. Mike Shula is the head coach at Alabama and had every right to handle the situation the way he did. I personally believe that when college athletes break the law, as opposed to team rules, the athletics director and president should make the final call on punishment. I assume they were in the loop here.
But I can tell you that from a national perspective, Alabama’s program has taken a hit on this one. Alabama didn’t need Juwan Simpson to beat Hawaii and the greater good - and image - of the program would have been better served by sitting him down. In today’s culture, “in-house” discipline or running the stadium steps at dawn is no longer sufficient. It simply sends the wrong message and too many coaches (like Tennesee’s Phillip Fulmer) have had to learn that lesson the hard way.
I’m an outsider, I know. I can only tell you that from the outside this looks like a bad decision that may help Alabama football in the short term but hurt its public image in the long haul. And given what the school has gone through the past 4-5 years, the last thing Alabama needs is a public relations hit.
And it just wasn’t necessary. That is what’s so sad.
Out of the FSU-Miami wreckage
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Leftovers from Monday night’s Florida State-Miami game:
1) This is the last time these two teams will open the season against each other for a while and that’s a good thing. Early in the season the defense is always ahead of the offense but last night’s 13-10 win by Florida State was ridiculous. The two teams combined for exactly three total yards of rushing. The classic games in this series were always played in October after the offenses had had time to jell.
2) Having said that, you may have seen the best two defenses in the country Monday night in Little Havana. Florida State coach Bobby Bowden said it was the best Miami defense he has seen in 30 years. I think he might be right.
3) Having said that, the offensive woes of both teams were not just because the defenses were so good. There is an obvious lack of playmakers on both teams, particularly at the wide receiver position. I didn’t see a Peter Warrick or a Michael Irvin out there turning short passes into big plays. And both offensive lines are very, very average.
4) The ACC hasn’t announced it yet, but look for Florida State to open the 2007 season on Labor Day night, but instead of Miami it will be against Boston College.
5) Think Larry Coker is feeling the heat? His team loses a three-point game to the No. 11 team in the nation and his second sentence in the post-game news conference was: “I hope our fans don’t give up on this team.”
Huh?
I think what he meant was: “I hope the fans don’t give up on me.” The guy is 53-10 in five years and some ‘Canes fans are going bonkers. The Hurricanes’ trip to Louisville on Sept. 16 is now huge. Lose that one and things could start to unravel very quickly down in Coral Gables.
6) If I’m Georgia Tech, I now believe that the ACC Coastal Division is wide open. Miami looks like a beatable team if you can get 14 points on the board. Tech gets the Hurricanes at home. Virginia Tech has a new quarterback. The Sept. 30 trip to Blacksburg now looms larger than ever for Georgia Tech.
7) Finally, and this is strictly an opinion, but the ACC and the University of Miami just can’t keep playing meaningful college football games in that dilapidated structure known as the Orange Bowl. The ACC expanded to add Miami in order to raise its football profile. But every big national game that is played in that ancient facility is a reminder that there is still a lot of work to be done if the ACC wants to be considered on the same level with the SEC in the sport of football. It’s not just about the game on the field. It’s the total presentation and fan experience. And the presentation at the Orange Bowl leaves a lot to be desired.
The University of Miami does the best it can with what it has at the Orange Bowl, but the bottom line is that it is a bad venue and simply not befitting the ACC and what is supposed to be its marquee football rivalry. It’s time for Miami to move its home games to ProPlayer Stadium (a.k.a. Joe Robbie) in Fort Lauderdale.
Lessons learned in opening week
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
It is said that a team’s greatest improvement is from the first to second game because so much is learned after the first weekend of the season. The same goes for sportswriters. Here are just a few things that we have learned with one game in the books.
1. The quarterback position in the SEC is in good hands for the future.
True freshmen Matthew Stafford (Georgia), Tim Tebow (Florida) and Mitch Mustain (Arkansas) all played meaningful minutes on Saturday. Their fans, as fans are prone to do, wanted more. But remember this: When the kid is in, you’re always running a condensed, simplified version of the offense. Over the course of a game it will not bear fruit against a legitimate SEC defense. Mustain will get his first start on Saturday against Utah State because Arkansas has to make something happen. Georgia and Florida have the luxury of being patient.
2. Tennessee is better than we thought.
Was it Yogi Berra who said that “50 percent of the game is 90 percent mental?” Well, you get the idea. Tennessee thumped Cal a lot worse than 35-18. For the first time in a while the Volunteers looked like a team that had a clue — and a heart. The offensive linemen were slimmed down and aggressive, thanks to the coaching of former Georgia assistant Greg Adkins. The wide receivers caught the ball AND blocked, thanks to new energy provided by Trooper Taylor. It was a good start against a team that was vastly overrated at No. 9. Now let’s see what happens when Florida comes to Knoxville on Sept. 16.
3. USC ain’t going anywhere.
With a new quarterback and a new running back the Trojans went into Arkansas, which had been geeked up after last season’s 70-17 thumping, and, as Steve Spurrier used to say, “laid half a hundred on them.” Wow. And now that it appears California is not the real deal, there doesn’t seem to be anybody on the schedule who can beat USC until the final game with Notre Dame in November. If Texas beats Ohio State on Saturday, could we be looking at a Texas-USC rematch for the BCS championship?
4. The bottom half of the ACC doesn’t look very good at all.
Duke lost to I-AA Richmond. N.C. State struggled with I-AA Appalachian State. North Carolina lost at home to Rutgers, who just lined up and ran right over the Tar Heels. Maryland struggled with both William and Mary. Virginia was so inept against Pittsburgh that it was embarrassing. The good news is that the top half of the league is strong and, for the locals, that Georgia Tech is in it.
5. Irish fans and Irish haters shouldn’t read too much into Notre Dame’s 14-10 win at Georgia Tech.
We thought Brady Quinn and Charlie Weis would have some problems against Jon Tenuta’s defensive scheme and they did. But they made enough adjustments and just enough aggressive plays to win. It also didn’t hurt that the Big Ten officials made a horrible call on the “helmet to helmet” personal found penalty at a crucial point in the game. Notre Dame will beat Penn State by double digits on Saturday.
Answers on the way
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Questions, questions, we have questions. Here are our five biggest questions going into the first weekend of play.
1) What will happen if Tennessee loses to California? If the Vols beat the No. 9 Bears it will send the signal to the Volunteer Nation that the 5-6 nightmare of 2005 is officially over. But if Tennessee loses, it will be two weeks until Florida comes to Knoxville. How difficult will those weeks be for Phillip Fulmer and his staff?
2) Will Matthew Stafford get on the field against Western Kentucky? And if he doesn’t, what does that mean? Does it mean he might be red-shirted? And if that happens, will part of the Bulldog Nation go absolutely bonkers?
3) Can Arkansas keep it respectable? USC might have lost Reggie Bush and Matt Leinart but trust me, the Trojan dynasty ain’t over. USC is still loaded. The Hogs would have a much better chance of keeping it close if running back Darren McFadden had not chosen to kick somebody in the head at 4 o’clock in the morning and injured a toe. He might play but how effective can he be if he hasn’t practiced? But I digress. Coach Houston Nutt said that there is more excitement around this home game than any one he can remember. I say the Hogs play tough. They don’t win, but they play tough.
4) Can the Georgia Tech defense force three turnovers? If they can, then Notre Dame’s hopes of a national championship may be dealt an early blow Saturday night on The Flats. Defensive coordinator Jon Tenuta will show Notre Dame QB Brady Quinn some things he hasn’t seen. The question is, what will happen when Charlie Weis makes his halftime adjustments? If Georgia Tech is plus-three or more in turnovers, it wins.
5) What will be the weekend’s biggest upset? Barring a Tech victory over Notre Dame, we’re going with Baylor over TCU. TCU went 11-1 last season and has hopes of going to a BCS bowl. But Guy Morriss has given Baylor a new attitude and has the Bears on the verge of finally being competitive in the Big 12.
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