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January 2009
Can Braves afford Abreu? Ohman? Glav?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
As the Braves’ voluntary early pitching camp gets underway, it’s time to assess the team’s remaining priority (besides signing Will Ohman, the blog hopes) as we taxi on the runway before spring training.
That remaining priority (well, in addition to Ohman and possibly trying to reach an agreement with Tom Glavine) would be the acquisition of a proven, run-producing outfielder. Or has anyone forgot that Braves outfielders hit a putrid 27 homers last season and didn’t do anything else well offensively as a group, either?
Or do some of you really believe the Braves will sign Andruw and call it a day? They might sign Andruw to a minimum-salary contract, especially if he’d take a minor league deal (but he and agent Scott Boras have both indicated he would not). But then he’d still have to win a job in camp, and there are some in the organization who doubt he could do that.
While the Braves say there’s no urgency to land another quality outfielder (one not named Andruw), and that they can afford to be patient and wait until spring training or even into the regular season before deciding whether to pull the trigger on a deal for an outfielder, we have reasons to believe they’d prefer to do it soon, before we head to Dark Star.
We think they’d like to make it one of these guys, maybe in this order of preference 1. Bobby Abreu (we’ll explain), 2. Xavier Nady or Nick Swisher (both Yankees, one or the other expected to be traded), and 4. (there can’t be a No. 3 if two guys are tied for No. 2) Adam Dunn, whose asking price (reportedly $14 mill per year) is still way, waaay above what the Braves have to spent.
Before we do a quick breakdown of that quartet, we should probably say that the Braves are only going to add one if it’s possible to sign him or make a trade that would fit in the approximate $5-9 million the team might have remaining to spend (the range is in part because we don’t know whether the Braves might go a few million over if it would really help them solidify the roster, and, frankly, because we don’t even know the exact payroll figure they’re aiming for to begin with).
If they can’t sign or trade for someone that fits the payroll, the Braves might decide to sign Glavine and possibly Ohman and then consider Brandon Jones or Josh Anderson for a platoon with Matt Diaz (Anderson hit .341 in 91 at-bats vs. right-handers last season, .200 in 45 at-bats vs. lefties).
That’s assuming that they have a CF they’re comfortable with other than Anderson, with Jordan Schafer and Gregor Blanco as primary options. (Hey, we’re throwing out a lot of ideas here, because manager Bobby Cox will surprise you sometimes with spring decisions — for instance, at this time a year ago, who thought Blanco would make the team and Anderson would spend most of the season at Triple-A?)
Hey, I didn’t say I endorse these options, but just that I think these are options they might consider.
Before we get into a breakdown of the four veteran outfielders listed above, let me add that the Braves would like to have enough money to sign Glavine and/or Lebowski (Ohman), too, but whether Glavine and the Braves can agree to a deal remains to be seen, and Ohman’s had a deal on the table from the Braves since November and hasn’t taken it yet.
Let’s assume they could get both of those guys for, say, $4.5 mill combined in 2009 (I know, big assumption). Would the Braves do that plus spend, say, $4.5 million or even $5 mill on an outfielder? Swisher is owed $5.3 mill in 2009, with two years left on his contract after that.
Nady just signed a one-year, $6.55 million deal, so if the Braves could trade for him, it’d presumably eat up most of what they have left and might not allow them to sign Glavine or Ohman. That’s on top of whatever pitcher or pitching prospect they’d have to trade to pry him from the Yankees. And remember, Nady is a Scott Boras client, thus almost certain to walk as a free agent next winter.
Well, I already gave some of the stuff I was going to put in the breakdown. Oh, well, here it is anyway, the pros and cons of those in that quartet. In reverse order.
Adam Dunn — Pros: Huge power, obviously; he’s hit 40 or more homers in five consecutive seasons, totaling 501 RBI in that stretch. Good plate discipline and patience, as evident by more than 100 walks ever season in that five-year stretch, and a .386 or higher OBP in four of those five seasons.
Cons: The 6-foot-6 man-mountain moves like a mountain in the outfield. In other words, not good defensively. At all. Also strikes out an awful lot (1,256 strikeouts in 3,871 career at-bats) and has a .225 career average in nearly 1,000 at-bats with runners in scoring position, albeit with a .416 OBP. Hit just .195 with 60 strikeouts in 154 at-bats vs. lefties in ‘08. And the biggest drawback: Salary. He apparently hasn’t received the memo about the awful economy diminishing the market price for corner outfielders. We’ll see if he has to re-assess in the next few weeks, but I’d be surprised if he got $10 million per season in a three- or four-year deal, much less the $14 million he reportedly wants.
Nick Swisher — Pros: He’s only 28, and the switch-hitter is under a reasonable contract for three more years ($5.3 million this season, $6.75 million in 2010, $9 million in 2011, and $10.25 million club option for 2012 with a $1 mill buyout). Before his career-worst season for the White Sox in 2008, he had a .361 career OBP and 80 homers in 1,617 at-bats in parts of four seasons with Oakland, and he’d totaled 60 doubles, 57 homers and 173 RBI during the 2006-07 seasons. Swisher has the versatility to play adequate defense at three OF positions and 1B, though he’s probably a bit of a stretch in CF.
Cons: That contract no longer looks quite as attractive as it did before the market price for OFs took a dive this winter. It’s $22 mill for the next three years with the buyout. And that 2008 season wasn’t just below-average, it was awful. He hit .219 with a .332 OBP in 153 games, but did have 24 homers. And the Braves would probably have to trade at least prospect or two to get him.
Xavier Nady — Pros: Strong defensive outfielder who’s coming off a career-best offensive season, including a .305 average with 25 homers, 37 doubles, 97 RBI, .357 OBP and whopping .510 slugging percentage in 555 at-bats for the Pirates and Yankees, including a .307 average with RISP and .333 with RISP and two outs. Nady hit .317 with an .886 OPS vs. lefties. He can play all three OF positions and 1B.
Cons: His $6.55 mill salary in 2009, his last season before free agency, would eat up most or all of the remaining funds the Braves have. Plus, they’d probably have to give up a pitcher or solid prospect to get him, and then would have him just one season before he’s up for free agency.
Bobby Abreu — Pros: If someone had told you five months ago that free agent Abreu might be available for $6 million or less in a one-year contract, you wouldn’t have believed them. I mean, he made nearly $58 million over the past four seasons. This is a guy who has a .300 career average with a .405 OBP and .498 slugging percentage, who as driven in 100 or more runs in six consecutive seasons and totaled at least 20 homers in eight of 10 seasons. Yes, he’s 35 and isn’t half the defensive outfielder he once was (actually, he’s just serviceable in the outfield these days), but he’s coming off a 2008 season in which he batted .296 with a .371 OBP, 39 doubles, 20 homers, 100 RBI and 100 runs scored. He’s got almost as many RBI (201) over the past two seasons as Dunn (205), and has more extra-base hits (123) in the past two seasons as Nady (107), with an .818 OPS that’s not too far off Nady’s .840 (Nady has 169 RBI in that two-year span). Oh, and just FYI, Abreu is old but has 47 steals in the past two seasons, which is 20 more than the combined totals of Swisher, Dunn, Nady and Jermaine Dye during that period (just thought we’d throw in Dye for fun).
Cons: He’s 35. He’s a RF who hasn’t played LF since 1997, but could presumably make the switch without difficulty, assuming the Braves are set on a slimmed-down Francoeur in RF).
OK, that’s it for now. Looking forward to pitching camp tomorrow. Expect to see phenom Tommy Hanson out there, but not certain who else will be stopping by during the camp, which runs through Feb. 6. It’s open to media from 9:30 a.m. to noon tomorrow and during Feb. 2-6, for those wondering when they might be able to get an autograph or two outside from pitchers arriving or leaving.
We’ll close with one of the many fine tunes from The Baseball Project CD that came out last year, “Volume One: Frozen Ropes and Dying Quails.” The Baseball Project is a quartet of alt-rockers who are all big baseball fans, including R.E.M.’s Peter Buck and the great Steve Wynn (who wrote most of the lyrics). This is the tale of their pal Jack McDowell, the former pitcher.
“THE YANKEE FLIPPER” by The Baseball Project
He’s a friend of the Smithereens, an old pal of Eddie Vedder.
For a good few years there weren’t any pitchers better.
He loved R.E.M. and he played a Rickenbacker guitar, but for a night on the town with Mike Mills you get hit pretty hard._
Mike and I met up with Dennis Diken and Black Jack somewhere.
As this was New York City, you may have heard they have a few bars there.
Jack loved the Replacements, and we drank enough that we became them.
Two guitars, bass and drums — yeah our line-up was the same then.
He was crowned the Yankee Flipper by the foul ball of fame.
He gave 50,000 fans the finger, but we’d like to share a little bit of the blame.
It was Spike and Mike and Black Jack and me.
I’m told Jack ended up on the cold tiles of the floor, with his mom who was visiting banging on the bathroom door.
Next time he took the mound was not a pretty sight, and I’ve always figured it had a lot to do with that night.
The photos filled every front page of the morning editions.
Now he’s the poster boy for a grand baseball tradition.
Templeton, Tejada, Billy Martin and Albert Belle — from old Hoss Radbourne all the way to David Wells.
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Unsigned Ohman, others waiting
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
We found another reason to like Will Ohman: His wife’s apparently as sarcastic and dark-humored as many of us here.
To wit, last night we called Ohman’s house in Arizona to see if there was any update on the free-agent lefty’s contract status. He was holding a crying baby when his wife, Allyson, came in and Ohman told her he was talking to me.
Her immediate reply: “Doesn’t he want to talk to actual Braves players?”
Ouch.
Anyway, Ohman is one of the 100 or so unsigned free agents in this glacial-like market, guys who still don’t know where they’ll be playing when spring training opens in less than three weeks (Braves pitchers and catchers report Feb. 14).
Ohman said he’s not getting antsy, but he didn’t sound too convincing. When I told him that I thought there’d be a flurry of free-agent signings this week, after teams took care of arbitration matters last week, he seemed to agree.
But he also didn’t indicate that he was on the verge of signing. He still wants to return to the Braves, and the offer they made to the reliever in November is still on the table.
Ohman has not divulged the length or dollars involved in that offer, or said how many other teams have made him offers, though he did say a while back that about 10-12 had expressed interest.
This is a guy who’s held lefties to a .197 batting average throughout his career, including .200 with a .257 OBP last year in his first season with the Braves. The numbers were better before his late-season slide, when Ohman pitched like a man who’d led the majors in appearances much of the season, which he had.
He had a 2.52 ERA and .185 overall opponents’ average in 63 appearances through Aug. 14, and a 10.38 ERA and .409 opponents’ average in 20 appearances over the rest of the season.
The Braves have potentially one of the best bullpens in the NL, headed by a trio of Mike Gonzalez, Peter Moylan and Rafael Soriano and young power arms Blaine Boyer and Manny Acosta. But Gonzo, Moylan and Soriano all are coming back from surgeries (though Gonzalez showed enough last season after Tommy John surgery to lead us to believe he’ll be near full strength in 2009).
With Moylan and especially Soriano still coming with some question marks, the Braves could take a big step in solidifying that ‘pen with Ohman. Right now, they have two talented but not exactly proven lefties, Boone Logan (acquired with Javier Vazquez from the White Sox) and the splendidly named Eric O’Flaherty, who was claimed waivers from Seattle and has a 5.91 ERA in 78 big-league games.
They need Ohman or a similarly experienced lefty. What separates Ohman from most lefty relievers, besides his appreciation for The Big Lebowski, is the fact that he’s also quite tough on right-handers, which makes him a viable closer option in a pinch.
Then there’s the fact that Ohman says he wants to be in Atlanta, provided offers are equal or even close to equal. Though he and his family make their home in Arizona, he has said consistently that he enjoyed everything about his year with the Braves (except not making the playoffs) and wants to be back in Atlanta.
When I asked him if he was waiting to sign because the offer from the Braves was such that it just didn’t make sense for him to sign until seeing what else was out there, etc., he said: “Ostensibly, when there’s an offer, you counter-offer and go from there. If things had gone to the point I was comfortable with it, it could be done…. I’m waiting to get to the point where for me, with my family situation, it’s right.
“It’s about what the market will bear, and whether a situation is right for the family, a lot of things. Money isn’t necessarily the major factor. Everybody says that, but for me, I honestly believe it’s not the only factor.”
OK, read into any of that what you will, folks.
In the meantime, in light of our weekend blog discussion about movies, and knowing his passion for all things Lebowski, I asked Ohman if he wanted to a favorite-movie list. I told him don’t give us what you believe to be the best movies ever made, but rather, the ones you’ve enjoyed the most.
It didn’t take him long to get back to me:
“I had to divide it,” Ohman said, “based on the fact you can’t say the greatest five movies for you are all comedies, or you’d be typecasting yourself. It’d be like saying drama is the only genre. So I divided it like this.
“The top four comedies were easy — The Big Lebowski, Dogma, Blazing Saddles, Fletch. And No. 5 was a tie, just due to difference in styles — High Fidelity and Snatch. They’re both dark comedies, but I love British humor, so Snatch had to be in there.
“Then I had the category of ‘other,’ and I went with Glory, Butch Cassidy & The Sundance Kid, Fight Club, The Departed, and then I had a three-way problem — Tombstone, The Untouchdables, and The Boondock Saints, which is a great movie I bet you haven’t seen.
“Then for honorable mention, have Kentucky Fried Movie, Life of Brian, Office Space, Princess Bride, Vision Quest, In The Name of the Father, Zoolander, Dumb and Dumber, and Anchorman. Oh, and one more, PCU, with Jeremy Piven before he was big.”
(Have I mentioned the Braves need to re-sign this guy? And that we need to get Allyson on the blog?)
By the way, Ohman (the pitcher, not the wife) said he’d be glad to come on the blog, but until he signs with a team he doesn’t think he’d be much good, because he’d have to be so vague with answers to a lot of the questions he thinks he’d get about contract offers, etc.
But he said he’d be glad to do it, now or later, to have some discourse with the denizens.
As for Chipper, I don’t know when/if he’s coming on. He said he’d be here at some time after the New Year, but so far, nothing. So we’ll see. Unlike Ohman, I’m pretty sure Chipper won’t be carrying a laptop to spring training. So if we don’t get him in the next three weeks, it probably ain’t happening with Hoss.
In the meantime… Still waiting for announcements about Don Sutton’s likely return to the Braves’ broadcast booth (this time on radio) and Andruw Jones signing a small one-year contract with either the Braves or another team.
The Braves were still negotiating with the network that carries Nationals games to get Sutton out of the remainder of his contract.
As for Andruw, agent Scott Boras told me Friday that it probably would be late this week before Andruw signed with a team. Whether that’ll be the Braves, I’m not sure. I’ve heard that Andruw has told some people he’s returning to the Braves, but Boras seemed to downplay that when I mentioned it to him.
Maybe that’s just posturing, trying to get more than a minimum-salary deal for the center fielder, even though Jones is being paid the full $21.1 mill still owed him by the Dodgers from the two-year, $36.2 mill contract he signed with them before the 2008 season.
Whether he can get his career back on track remains to be seen, and there were some mixed feelings in the Braves organization about giving him a chance to do it in Atlanta.
Regardless of whether the Braves sign him, you all should understand: If they do, he’d not be considered the bat they’ve been looking for in the outfield. He’d be signed to a low-salary deal and given a chance to show what he’s got this spring, not guaranteed of a job for the 2009 season.
The Braves continue to search for another productive bat, either for their outfield or possibly (though it seems less likely) for second base, if they could get leadoff man/2B Brian Roberts or Orlando Hudson and move Kelly Johnson to the outfield.
Stay tuned. Should be a lot of teams signing a lot of players in the next week or two. Don’t know if Braves will be among them, but it’s going to get interesting seeing where the likes of Adam Dunn, Hudson, Bobby Abreu and so many others end up, and how big their contracts are going to be.
“WHENEVER KINDNESS FAILS” by Robert Earl Keen
I crossed the desert on a dining car
In the spring of ninety-one
I met some people drinking at the bar
They were laughing having fun
I told ‘em that I hadn’t heard the joke
That was so hilarious
They said that I was just a dumb cowpoke
I didn’t want to make a fuss
So I shot ‘em down
One by one
Then I left ‘em ‘long the rails
I use my gun
Whenever kindness fails
The moon was in the sign of Scorpio
The sun was at my back
I didn’t know how far the train would go
Until the law would find my track
I saw the brakeman and the engineer
Drinking wine and eating brie
I asked ‘em who would brake and who would steer
They started pointing back at me
So I shot ‘em down
One by one
Then I left ‘em ‘long the rails
I use my gun
Whenever kindness fails
I only have a moment to explain
Just a chance to let you know
When it’s time for you to board the train
There are two ways you can go
You can ride the wheels into the sun
Feel the wind upon your face
Or you can laugh into a loaded gun
and you’ll likely lose your place
So I shot ‘em down
One by one
Then I left ‘em ‘long the rails
I use my gun
Whenever kindness fails
Yeah I shot ‘em down
One by one
Then I left ‘em ‘long the rails
When I use my gun
That lonesome whistle wails
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Sutton and/or Andruw returning?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
A few thoughts while we wait for possible announcements that Don Sutton could be returning to the Braves broadcast booth and Andruw Jones to the outfield.
Neither is a done deal, though I’ve got a feeling both will happen. I’m more confident about Sutton’s return than Jones’. If they can get Don out of his contract with the Nationals, he’ll join new Braves radio hire Jim Powell, a Univ. of Georgia and Roswell High alum who’s spent the past 13 seasons sharing a booth with Brewers legend Bob Uecker.
Powell’s hiring hasn’t been announced by the Braves, only because they were hoping to introduce him and Sutton together.
And I should clarify regarding Andruw: I think the Braves are leaning toward re-signing him, but I don’t think it’s a given he’ll be returning to their outfield, even if they give him a major league contract.
Because first, he would have to show this spring that he’s ready to play, that he’s repaired some of the grossly damaged swing that’s made him one of the very worst hitters in baseball over the past couple of seasons. Otherwise, the Braves could cut him in spring training and only pay a percentage of the already small salary he’d have in his contract with the Braves.
It should be noted again, whatever salary he gets from the Braves or any other team that signs him this year will be in addition to the $21.1 million he’s still owed and will be paid by the Dodgers, to complete the two-year, $36.2 million contract they gave him after the 2007 season.
He gave the Dodgers 33 hits including three homers, and they’ll give him $36.2 million for the production. Every time I type that, I’m astounded.
In case you missed my update buried within the comments section of the last blog, I talked to agent Scott Boras on Thursday, and he said Andruw wasn’t likely to make a decision before late next week. Boras also said again that eight teams called him about Andruw last week after the Dodgers released the center fielder.
(For those unfamiliar with the details, Boras worked out a deal with the Dodgers in which the team agreed to release him Jan. 15 if they hadn’t traded him by then, and Jones agreed to take a $5 million salary from the Dodgers this season with the rest of the $21.1 they owed him to be deferred over six years.)
I don’t know which other teams were among those Boras says called him, but I do know the Marlins have expressed interest. For what it’s worth, Andruw once said Dolphins Stadium was the worst ballpark in the majors to play in, but he does love South Florida and has a condo on South Beach in Miami.
But really, I think he’s just waiting for the Braves to make an offer, and the Braves might be waiting to open a spot for him. But I should add, they’ve not shown any real enthusiasm about the idea of bringing him back, and he’d not be considered the bat they’ve been and continue searching for.
Rather, he’d be a very small gamble they’d hope would pay off, nothing more. GM Frank Wren, who’s said very little other than they’re discussing Jones, has made it clear the Braves have no sense of urgency now in pursuing that big outfield bat they’ve been looking for since the end of last season.
But that sense of urgency being eliminated has nothing to do with Jones. Rather, it was a result of improvements they’ve made to their starting rotation and the availability of many hitter options still unsigned or possibly being offered in trades.
My feeling is that in the Braves’ view, they’ve beefed up their pitching staff enough that it’s not quite as urgent that they add offense right now, though they clearly are (and should be) still exploring many options, ranging from signing a free agent like Adam Dunn (less than likely) to trading for guy like the Yankees’ Nick Swisher (he’s under contract for three more years, so Yankees are reluctant to trade him for anything less than multiple young players) or the Yankees’ Xavier Nady (very attractive, good fit for the Braves, but potentially too costly in terms of trading young talent for a one-year rental — Nady’s a free agent after the 2009 season, and a Boras client.
Ken Rosenthal has also mentioned the interesting possibility of the Braves trading for Orioles 2B Brian Roberts, which makes some sense because he fits much the way Rafael Furcal would’ve fit — the Braves could move Kelly Johnson to left field, plug Roberts at 2B and have the proven leadoff guy they need.
Again, the Braves don’t portray a sense of any pressure to do anything right away. But part of that might also be that they don’t want other teams believing they are determined to do something, not like the Padres must have felt when Kevin Towers believed the Braves were so determined to get Jake Peavy that Towers allegedly keep asking for more young talent and the Braves would keep agreeing to add it to the package for Peavy.
(By the way, it looks like that Peavy-to-Cubs thing might finally happen, but you all are probably so numb to the whole Jake thing that you might not care. So I won’t bother repeating the latest update on that scenario.)
Change we can believe in: Did you see the Braves’ non-roster invitee list released yesterday? Now that was a nice change of pace from past years.
Instead of the flotsam and jetsam the Braves usually invite, the Borchards and Thormans and other has-been’s or never-were’s, the Braves are bringing to Dark Star some dynamic young talent from their minor league organization - an organization that, we should add, is once again one of the most highly regarded in all of baseball, after some lean years when the Braves’ top prospects were mostly at the lower levels of the organization, several years away from making an impact at the big-league level.
Now, the Braves have a handful of prospects that many rank among the best in all of baseball, and these are guys who could all be in Atlanta within the next two or three years, including pitchers Tommy Hanson and Kris Medlen, who I believe will both make their major league debuts this season.
Hanson is the gem, of course, a 22-year-old who dominated the prospect-laden Arizona Fall League, outpitching the likes of Phil Hughes and Max Scherzer and leaving a strong impression on hitters including catcher Matt Wieters, who cited Hanson as the toughest pitching prospect he’s faced.
Hanson, rated the No. 1 prospect in the Braves organization by Baseball America, and Medlen were on the list of 16 non-roster invitees to camp, along with the Big Man from Henry County, 6-foot-4 outfielder Jason Heyward; slugging first baseman Freddie Freeeman; and center fielder Jordan Schafer, who should be taking over the starting job at some point in ‘09, possibly even by opening day.
ESPN scouting guru Keith Law rated Heyward even higher than Hanson in Law’s list of the top 100 prospects in baseball, which came out Thursday. Law had Heyward rated the third-best prospect, behind Wieters and Tampa Bay pitcher David Price, who you may remember from the World Series. Just 19 years old, Heyward is four years younger than Price and three years young than Wieters.
Hanson was ranked No. 9 by Law, who ranked the Braves’ farm system fourth in the majors, behind Texas, Tampa Bay and Oakland. The Braves helped fortify the Rangers’ No. 1-rated farm system when they sent five prospects to the Rangers in the July 2007 trade for Mark Teixeira and Ron Mahay, including pitching prospect Neftali Perez, who has shot up the charts to No. 4 on Law’s top-100 list.
Of the Braves’ talent pool, Law wrote: “Still one of the best and deepest systems in the game despite the trades for Mark Teixeira and Javier Vazquez. Scouting director Roy Clark and his staff are among the game’s best, with a knack for finding talent beyond the first round while they remain quietly productive on the international front.”
(By the way, Law ranks Tyler Flowers the fourth-best catching prospect in baseball. The Braves traded him to the White Sox in the Vazquez deal this winter.)
One other thing: I stand in awe (not meant as a compliment) of the sleaze and greed displayed by one Jay McGwire, who not only threw his own brother under the bus, but backed the bus up and ran over Mark McGwire’s bloated body a few dozen times for good measure. Hey, anything for book sales.
Seriously, the steroid accusations levied by Jay McGwire against his brother were a new low. Can you even imagine the tension that must exist between those two? How can anyone do that to his own brother? Not that Mark’s reputation wasn’t already ruined by the (alleged) andro use that most in baseball believe fueled his 135-homer binge during 1998-99 (at ages 34-35, by the way).
But seriously, this is way beyond simply piling on and being a lower-than-low opportunist desperate to sell a book that would otherwise probably not have gotten published (and if it had, it would’ve gone straight to discount bins).
We’ll go out with a tune we’ll dedicate to Ray McGwire:
“HIGHWAY PATROLMAN” by Bruce Springsteen
My name is Joe Roberts I work for the state
I’m a sergeant out of Perrineville barracks number 8
I always done an honest job as honest as I could
I got a brother named Franky and Franky ain’t no good
Now ever since we was young kids it’s been the same come down
I get a call over the radio Franky’s in trouble downtown
Well if it was any other man, I’d put him straight away
But when it’s your brother sometimes you look the other way
Me and Franky laughin’ and drinkin’ nothin’ feels better than blood on blood
Takin’ turns dancin’ with Maria as the band played “Night of the Johnstown Flood”
I catch him when he’s strayin’ like any brother would
Man turns his back on his family well he just ain’t no good
Well Franky went in the army back in 1965 I got a farm deferment, settled down, took Maria for my wife
But them wheat prices kept on droppin’ till it was like we were gettin’ robbed Franky came home in ‘68, and me, I took this job
Yea we’re laughin’ and drinkin’ nothin’ feels better than blood on blood
Takin’ turns dancin’ with Maria as the band played “Night of the Johnstown Flood”
I catch him when he’s strayin’, teach him how to walk that line
Man turns his back on his family he ain’t no friend of mine
Well the night was like any other, I got a call ‘bout quarter to nine
There was trouble in a roadhouse out on the Michigan line
There was a kid lyin’ on the floor lookin’ bad bleedin’ hard from his head there
was a girl cryin’ at a table and it was Frank, they said
Well I went out and I jumped in my car and I hit the lights
Well I must of done one hundred and ten through Michigan county that night
It was out at the crossroads, down round Willow bank
Seen a Buick with Ohio plates behind the wheel was Frank
Well I chased him through them county roads till a sign said Canadian border five miles from here
I pulled over the side of the highway and watched his taillights disappear
Me and Franky laughin’ and drinkin’
Nothin’ feels better than blood on blood
Takin’ turns dancin’ with Maria as the band played “Night of the Johnstown Flood”
I catch him when he’s strayin’ like any brother would
Man turns his back on his family well he just ain’t no good
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Finally, some Brave optimism in ‘09
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Good morning on this historic Tuesday, when standing in that humongous crowd on the mall in Washington makes those temps in the 20s up in D.C. feel better than ours in the 20s (with strong winds) here in Atlanta. I ‘bout froze when I walked to the curb to get my garbage can while ago.
Anyway, just 25 days till pitchers & catchers report, and Braves I’ve talked to sure feel better about the team’s situation than they did a few weeks ago. Whether or not Frank Wren gets another bat before spring training, they’ll go to Dark Star believing they’ve got a chance to compete in the division.
Before they got Derek Lowe (and Kenshin Kawakami), the Braves couldn’t realistically expect to stay in the division race with the likes of the World Series champion Phillies and the Mets.
Now, they can. Provided their key pitchers and their two best hitters, Chipper and McCann, can stay healthy (OK, make that reasonably healthy for Chipper), I could see this team staying in contention deep into the second half of the season.
But several things are going to have to go their way for it to happen.
They’re going to need better production from a few others, including Jeff Francoeur and Casey Kotchman.
They’re going to need more consistency from Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar.
And they’re going to need a lot more offense from the outfield, whoever’s out there.
Which brings us to the biggest remaining needs. There are two, in my opinion, but I’m not sure that the Braves view re-signing Will Ohman or getting another equally proven veteran lefty in the ‘pen to be a crucial need. I sure do.
They do concur about the need for another bat, though the Braves indicate they could wait until spring training or even during the season to make that move. Could this be posturing? Perhaps.
By that I mean, the Braves may want other teams to believe they’re in no hurry now, that their beefed-up pitching staff puts them in position to wait and evaluate what they’ve got in their organization first, not capitulate and give the Yankees what they want now for Xavier Nady or Nick Swisher, or give another team what they want in a trade right now — the Orioles and 2B Brian Roberts, for instance.
Roberts was first mentioned Sunday as a Braves possibility by FoxSports’s Ken Rosenthal, who suggested they could move K.J. to left field in that scenario, making Roberts the leadoff man in a situation similar to the one envisioned when they were close to signing Rafael Furcal. (In the past two seasons, Roberts has 127 extra-base hits, 171 walks, 90 stolen bases, 210 runs and 114 RBI — not bad, eh?)
It’s a possibility, though at this point I’d say it’s not likely. But that could change at any time, with one phone call that changes the playing field and perhaps lowers the asking price. Keep in mind, the Braves had a deal for Roberts a couple of winters ago, before it was quashed by Orioles ownership. But back then he had a few seasons before free agency; now he’s got just one.
(Between you and me, heere’s something to keep in mind: Rosenthal was once an Orioles beat writer, including the year when Frank Wren was GM there. His sources with both teams are solid.)
But just to finish on the point: Maybe it’s posturing on the Braves part, and maybe they still are determined to add a bat now, before spring training. But I really do get a feeling that they’re willing to start the season, or at least go to spring training, with what they have and see what kind of progress a lot of their young players have made before deciding to give up significant prospects or adding another significant salary to the payroll.
Whether that’s a wise move is another story.
Speaking of Ohman: When I talked to him late last week, he was still hopeful of returning to the Braves, and said the initial offer they made him in November was still on the table. He reiterated that if all things are equal, or close, he wants to return to the Braves, and their recent moves have met with approval.
“I thought we were going to be extremely competitive,” he said. “With what’s happened in the past week, I think that’s even more likely.”
Why hasn’t he already signed, then? Because, folks, things have been moving so slowly for his segment of the free-agent market, and he was still getting offers trickling in from other teams, and didn’t want to sign before being reasonably sure of what might be offered.
This free-agent markets has been moving from position to position, or from player to player — a handful of teams suddenly make offers for this pitcher or that one, and then he takes an offer and signs. Then a bunch of teams make offers for another player, and he signs, etcetera.
My gut feeling is that Ohman comes back to the Braves, but that’s based only on the fact I know he wants to be here. He didn’t say this, but I get a feeling if they had increased his initial offer he would have signed by now. (And no, I don’t know what that offer was.)
Glavine toes slab again: Tom Glavine is supposed to throw off the mound again today, after making his return to the hill with a 15-pitch session Friday. We’ll let you know later today what he says about the latest session.
If Glavine can make it back, that sure would be a nice option for that fifth-starter role out of spring training, don’t you think? I’m guessing the contract would be for about a quarter of the $8 mill he made last season, and being in the fifth spot could give Glavine a chance to get extra rest and skip a turn from time to time, perhaps increasing the likelihood he could stay healthy.
Then again, the Braves have plenty of other options if he doesn’t make it back or if he doesn’t like the offer they make him. (By the way, can anyone really imagine him finishing his career with, say, the Nationals? Really?)
Andruw projections: While Scott Boras considers offers for Andruw Jones (hey, Boras said eight teams called Friday about his client) and the Braves consider whether they really even want him, I’ll repost the Bill James Handbook projection for that I mentioned this weekend.
In the new Handbook, James projects a .233/.328/.445 season with 16 homers and 50 RBI in 301 at-bats for Jones, though you’ve got to wonder exactly how one would come to any sort of projection for a hitter with such a seemingly unprecedented recent history as Andruw’s.
By that, I mean a guy who’s only 31 and totaled 92 homers and 257 RBI during the 2005-2006 seasons, but who fell off the face of the earth (figuratively speaking, of course) since then.
We’re talking .222/.311/.413 in 2007 with the Braves, and .158/.256/.249 with just three homers and 209 at-bats for the Dodgers in 2008.
To James’ credit, he cites his completely off-the-mark projection for Jones in last year’s handbook as an example in the good-and-bad projections section of the new book. A year ago, James and his staff projected Jones would hit .253 with 34 homers and 103 RBI for the Dodgers in 2008.
Yikes.
“Man, that has to be the worst projection we ever published,” James writes in the new book. “From now on, we will refer to the inexplicable loss of all ability in mid-career as ‘pulling an Andruw on us.’ He was one of my favorite players, too.”
A lot of people on the Braves/MIB blog probably know how you feel, Bill.
Rating young talent: Also in the new James Handbook, he rates the young talent for each organization. The Braves are ninth, just behind Colorado and ahead of Boston. He bases his ratings only on proven young players who are on major league rosters, not on prospects or other unproven players.
“The Braves ranked 16th in our survey last year, but shot up the list due to the solid year by McCann and the emergence of Jurrjens (34th on our list), Yunel Escobar (103rd) and others (Gregor Blanco, Jorge Campillo, Martin Prado, Jo-Jo reyes, Josh Anderson). Francoeur and Kelly Johnson are still young players. They just need for some of these guys to pump up the volume.”
(Blogmeister note: Campillo is a “young” player? He was a 29-year-old rookie. By the way, someone on the blog mentioned Blanco being out of minor-league options; he’s not.)
Anyway, James rates Minnesota first for young talent, followed by Arizona, Tampa Bay, Florida, Kansas City, Milwaukee and Cleveland in the seventh spot.
In his list of 25 individual young players, he rates Prince Fielder first, followed by Hanley Ramirez, Tim Lincecum, blog favorite David Wright and Ryan Braun. McCann is ranked 22nd, the only Brave in the top 25.
Best movies of the year: During the long weekend I got to see Mickey Rourke’s tour-de-force performance in The Wrestler and Kate Winslet and Leo DiCaprio’s fine work in a wrenching, thought-provoking Revolutionary Road. Now I’m ready to name my best of 2008. (Though I haven’t seen Frost/Nixon, I think I’ve seen all the other Oscar favorites.)
Best picture: Slumdog Millionaire; 2. The Reader; 3. The Dark Knight; 4. Gran Torino; 5. Revolutionary Road; 6. The Wrestler; 7. Milk; 8. Redbelt.
Best actor: Rourke (ahead of Sean Penn and Clint Eastwood, who were good enough to win most years).
Best actress: Winslet in either The Reader or Revolutionary Road. She had the kind of year that Philip Seymour-Hoffman had in 2007, when he was in three great movies (The Savages, Charlie Wilson’s War and Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead.)
Speaking of best-of lists: Upon further review and/or late purchases, there were four other CDs that should’ve made my 2008 top 50: Carrie Rodriguez “She Ain’t Me”, Delta Spirit “Ode To Sunshine,” Martha Wainwright “I Know You’re Married But…” and The Walkmen “You & Me.” And if I’d included live albums, The Clash “Live at Shea Stadium” and Chuck Brodsky “Two Sets” would have been on the list.
A tune to finish: This goes out to my man Pete Van Wieren, who’s a big W. Ward fan (I’m not kidding). Pete, we’re really gonna miss you down at Dark Star. And all season long.
”CHINESE TRANSLATION” by M. Ward
I sailed a wild, wild sea
Climbed up a tall, tall mountain
I met a old, old man
Beneath a weeping willow tree
He said now if you got some questions
Go and lay them at my feet_But my time here is brief
So you’ll have to pick just three
And I said
What do you do with the pieces of a broken heart
And how can a man like me remain in the light
And if life is really as short as they say
Then why is the night so long
And then the sun went down
And he sang for me this song
See I once was a young fool like you
Afraid to do the things
That I knew I had to do
So I played an escapade just like you
I played an escapade just like you
I sailed a wild, wild sea
Climbed up a tall, tall mountain
I met an old, old man
He sat beneath a sapling tree
He said now if you got some questions
Go and lay them at my feet
But my time here is brief
So you’ll have to pick just three
And I said
What do you do with the pieces of a broken heart
And how can a man like me remain in the light
And if life is really as short as they say
Then why is the night so long
And then the sun went down
And he played for me this song
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Andruw’s epic fall from grace
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
It’s finally official: Andruw is a colossal L.A. bust.
Not that he wasn’t by any measure already a Dodgers bust before Thursday night, but it wasn’t until the team officially released him that it became official, since there’s now no way that Andruw Jones will be making some highly improbable comeback to something resembling his former self — not with the Dodgers.
They felt so certain it wasn’t possible that they agreed to eat the remaining $21.1 million of the two-year, $32.2 million contract they gave Jones after the 2007 season, when the Braves didn’t try to re-sign him.
He hit .158 with three homers, 33 hits and 76 strikeouts in 209 at-bats in his first (and, as it turns out, last) season with Los Dodgers.
Let’s see, they got from him 33 hits and three homers for $36.2 million. That works out to about $1.1 million per hit, or $12 million per homer. Even compared to the stock market in the past year or two, that’s a really poor return on one’s investment.
Hey, compared to those returns Mike Hampton was a resounding success in Atlanta.
How has Andruw fallen this far, this fast? Step right up to vote on your favorite explanation: He’s older than he says; he played so hard for so long, he’s 31 with a 50-year-old body; he’s too stubborn to correct fatal flaws in his swing; his immense natural talent couldn’t carry him once he started to break down … Hey, feel free to supply one of your own theories.
But the real question on your minds: Will the Braves take a flier on him and bring him back hoping against hope that he can recapture past glory, or at least keep center field warm until Jordan Schafer takes over? Or, maybe a part-time left fielder? (Yeah, right, like ‘Dru would go for that at 31.)
I’ve got no answer for you, since Frank Wren refused to discuss Andruw today or tonight, even when I e-mailed him one last time after it became official that the Dodgers had dumped him and made him a free agent. (Wren declined to discuss him earlier in the day because he was still technically a member of the Dodgers.)
The Braves and other teams are free to pursue him and could offer him the major league minimum, or a minor-deal deal if he’d take it. But it’s unclear if the Braves would offer him even a minor-league contract, with an invitation to spring training to prove he’s worthy before they bumped someone else from the 40-man roster.
And if they are willing to take that small risk, would he even accept? In a radio interview Thursday with 790TheZone, Jones indicated no interest in a minor-league contract. So maybe the Reds or Mets or some other team will offer him a big-league contract, if he doesn’t get one from the Braves — the team he wants most to play for, according to those who know him.
Jones, who wore a Braves cap at the Georgia Tech basketball game Wednesday, did not return a phone message I left for him tonight.
He’s going to get his remaining $21.1 million from the Dodgers, regardless of whether — or for whom — he plays this season. Nice position to be in, no doubt. But the pride thing, that’s got to be rough. Of course, after going through what he did last year, getting booed lustily from opening day, just getting out of L.A. might feels like huge relief for Jones.
He’s been hitting at Turner Field with old teammates, just as he did last winter after signing with the Dodgers. He’s kept his home in the north Atlanta ‘burbs, probably always will.
But will he play again for the Bravos? I really don’t have a strong feeling about that. If they invite him to camp, I honestly don’t know if he’s got enough left to win a spot. Maybe so. Maybe he’ll surprise us all this year.
If not, this is a story that will have a seemingly inexplicable ending, because I still haven’t heard any good explanation for how a guy could fall this far, this fast, at such a relatively young age, without a serious injury or illness.
I mean, think about it: The Dodgers were willing to eat the rest of contract, all 21.1 million remaining dollars, rather than bring him back. That’s how convinced they were that he was done, or at least that it couldn’t work in L.A.
The Braves didn’t try to re-sign him after the 2007 season, when he won his 10th consecutive Gold Glove but hit just .222 with 26 homers and a .311 on-base percentage — quite a dropoff after hitting .263 average with 92 homers and 257 RBIs during the 2005-2006 seasons, with OBPs of .347 and .363 in those years, along with his fourth and fifth All-Star selections.
It’s been a precipitous decline for the former Atlanta fan-favorite from Curacao, who’ll be 32 in April, an age when the majority of stars these days are still in the prime of their careers.
He’s gone from 2005 major league home run leader and National League MVP runner-up to … this.
And it started long before he went West. He began to falter after the 2006 All-Star break, and since July 21, 2006, Andruw has has hit .209 with 46 homers and a .312 OBP and a .401 slugging percentage in his past 291 games, with 149 RBI, 137 walks and 262 strikeouts in 993 at-bats.
That’s a .209 average and .713 OPS in nearly 300 games and 1,000 at-bats.
The Braves will have a press conference Friday morning to introduce their newest starting pitcher, Derek Lowe. Lowe is a Boras client, too.
With Boras in attendance, might the Braves also announce tomorrow that Jones is back for a second tour with Bobby Cox and the Braves? Maybe those preternatural outfield skills are still there, and Jones can recapture his power stroke, too.
Well, you never know.
But I wouldn’t bet on it.
”IT’S A DREAM” by Neil Young
In the morning when I wake up and listen to the sound
Of the birds outside on the roof
I try to ignore what the paper says
And I try not to read all the news
And I’ll hold you if you had a bad dream
And I hope it never comes true
‘Cause you and I been through so many things together
And the sun starts climbing the roof
It’s a dream
Only a dream
And it’s fading now
Fading away
It’s only a dream
Just a memory without anywhere to stay
The Red River stills flows through my home town
Rollin’ and tumblin’ on its way
Swirling around the old bridge pylons
Where a boy fishes the morning away
His bicycle leans on an oak tree
While the cars rumble over his head
An aeroplane leaves a trail in an empty blue sky
And the young birds call out to be fed
It’s a dream
Only a dream
And it’s fading now
Fading away
It’s only a dream
Just a memory without anywhere to stay
An old man walks along on the sidewalk
Sunglasses and an old Stetson hat
The four winds blow the back of his overcoat away
As he stops with the policeman to chat
And a train rolls out of the station
That was really somethin’ in its day
Picking up speed on the straight prairie rails
As it carries the passengers away
It’s gone
Only a dream
And it’s fading now
Fading away
Only a dream
Just a memory without anywhere to stay
It’s a dream
Only a dream
And it’s fading now
Fading away
It’s only a dream
Just a memory without anywhere to stay
It’s a dream
Only a dream
And it’s fading now
Fading away
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Hey they’re big in Japan
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
We probably should have taken a poll to gauge Frank Wren’s approval rating just after last week’s news that John Smoltz felt a bit miffed over the Braves’ offer to him and had decided to sign with the Boston Red Sox.
Because I’m guessing Wren’s rating would have been rather low that day. And I’ve got to think it’s risen considerably in recent days with the acquisition of free-agent pitchers Kenshin Kawakami and Derek Lowe.
Oh, sure, there are plenty of folks who will criticize one or both signings, who’ll say Kawakami is an unknown commodity (which he basically is) who got too much money, and/or that the Braves should never have given a $60 million, four-year contract to a 35-year-old pitcher, despite the fact that Lowe has been a far more durable and reliable pitcher than A.J. Burnett, for whom the Braves offered $80 million before he signed with the Yankees for $82 million.
But seriously, there were going to be plenty of detractors regardless of what Wren did — if he did nothing and aimed for 2010; or if he “blew up the team” (whatever the hell that means) and aimed for the long-term future; if he pinched pennies and added a cheaper (and less-accomplished) pitcher such as Jon Garland instead of Lowe … in short, some were sure to bitch if he did anything short of trade two middling minor-leaguers for Jake Peavy.
And if he traded two minor leaguers, I can assure you there would have still been a few folks here complaining that he was mortgaging the future for a pitcher whose stats were a product of Petco Park and whose elbow would likely implode and send tissue and muscle flying across rows of fans in his first start for the Braves (yikes, I’m really tired, ain’t I?).
Hey, it’s the nature of the GM position, particularly when opinions are swayed by a largely unpopular move — like, say, letting a fan-favorite Braves icon like Smoltz go over what amounted to a (guaranteed) $3 million difference in offers — and a few other personnel pursuits that didn’t work out this winter, including the Burnett and Peavy matters, plus the Rafael Furcal debacle and the Mike Hampton exit.
Anyway, we’re not here to rehash all that (unless you all want to), but rather to say that this week has been a rollercoaster for Wren and the Braves, and for their fans, many of whom acknowledge going from the depths of despair after Smoltz left to feeling much better about the Braves’ chances with the additions of one of Japan’s top pitchers and the best available free agent on the market.
Braves still have work to do, including getting another hitter and perhaps re-signing Will Ohman for a bullpen that’s got to rely an awful lot on three surgically repaired arms in Soriano, Moylan and Gonzalez in key roles.
But these were big steps, Lowe and Kawakami, if you ask me.
Remember, people, there were observers and evaluators who had Lowe as the second- or third-best free agent starter available entering this offseason, some rating him behind only C.C. Sabathia. Burnett is a more dominant pitcher, when he’s healthy. But he’s healthy far less frequently than Lowe, who is 4-1/2 years older but has averaged 15 wins and 208 innings in seven seasons as a starter since 2002.
Lowe is 106-75 with a 3.79 ERA in 233 starts since 2002, while Burnett is 69-55 with a 3.71 ERA and 164 starts in that period. (Just for comparison’s sake, Peavy is 86-62 in 199 starts since 2002, his rookie season, and Ben Sheets is 75-73 with a 3.60 ERA in 196 starts since ‘02, which was his second season in the majors.)
Lowe is tied with Johan Santana for third-most wins in the majors since 2002 , behind Roys Oswalt (115) and Halladay (113).
He’s good, folks. And durable. While my colleague Jeff Schultz wonders if we might be calling Lowe the next Mike Hampton in a couple of years, I have to ask, where’s the comparison? Hampton already had a string of injuries and a couple of disappointing seasons in Colorado when the Rockies agreed to eat a big chunk of his salary over the remaining six years of his contract so he’d go away.
Contrast that to Lowe, who was 14-11 with a 3.24 ERA in 211 innings last season, and in his final 10 starts he was 6-1 with a 1.27 ERA. And that’s with a Los Dodgers team that had shoddy infield defense and inconsistent run support.
OK, so the Braves are hardly looking like a high-scoring machine at this point. But they do have one of the most highly regarded infield defenses in the NL, with Gold Glove-caliber 1B Casey Kotchman, dynamic shortstop Yunel Escobar, a still-strong defensive 3B in batting champion Chipper Jones, and a serviceable defensive 2B in Kelly Johnson, who’s not regarded by Lowe and his agent, Scott Boras, as anywhere near the defense liability some on this blog claim he is.
In fact, Boras said he considered the Braves’ overall situation, including that infield defense, and told Lowe last month that this was a team he should seriously consider if they made a good offer for him, even though Lowe and his new wife were said to prefer one of the big Northeastern cities initially (she’s a California native and was a TV news personality out there).
Lowe’s visit last week, a five-hour epic that included long talks with Bobby Cox, Roger McDowell, Wren and other Braves officials, swayed him to Boras’ way of thinking. Lowe really liked what he saw and heard, including the rundown on the Braves’ pitching talent in the minor league systen, which Boras had also told him about beforehand.
Boras, who also represents Jair Jurrjens, remarked that pitching prospect Tommy Hanson (not a Boras client) is widely regarded as one of the best three prospects in all of baseball, and the agent was quite familiar with the Braves’ bevy of other pitching prospects and with their outfield prospects including Jordan Schafer, Jason Heyward and Boras client Gorkys Hernandez.
The highest-profile agent in the business spoke about the Braves in more favorable tones than a lot of their frustrated fans have lately.
Sure, some will say he steered Lowe here just because the Braves were desperate and would be willing to give him the biggest contract. But I’m telling you, in conversations with Boras in recent weeks, I really got the impression he believes the Braves are poised for a resurgence over the next several years in large part because of the young players on their current major league roster and the load of prospects bubbling just below the surface, ready to start trickling onto the big-league roster over the next several years.
Think about the Braves’ potential rotation in 2010: Lowe, Jair Jurrjens, Javier Vazquez, Kawakami, and Hanson. If the Braves and Tim Hudson agree to pick up his option for 2010, well, then the Braves, provided everyone else stays healthy, could have a nice trade chip with, say, Vazquez.
And remember, the Braves might have overpaid for Lowe, but they avoided giving him a no-trade clause.
Kawakami’s arrival: I knew covering Kawakami would be a different experience, but it wasn’t until dozens of camera shutters were going off in unison for a minute or so at Wednesday’s press conference that I realized just how different it’s going to be.
Like my man in Jaws said, we’re going to need a bigger boat.
Or rather, a bigger pressbox. The one at Dark Star is going to be jammed this spring, and I’d imagine a spare radio booth or two will have to serve as overflow seating for the many Japanese reporters who’ll be covering Kawakami.
A Japanese reporter told me perhaps 20 reporters would cover him this spring, and maybe 30 people in all, including cameramen and photogs. That number will likely decrease during the season, as the economy in Japan is suffering, too, and their newspapers are cutting back on travel much like ours in the States.
Another moment when I realized how different Kawakami would be: When he said through a translator that he wanted to put “his soul” into all his pitches, and to illustrate he held up a small painting he’d done of — if I understood this correctly — the Japanese character or figure that represents “soul.”
Hey, it looked like a Rohrschach test to me, but Kawakami was clearly proud of it, and hey, it was pretty cool looking.
The dude seems like a good guy, shy and respectful, and genuinely happy to be here. He and his agent said that so many people had come up and introduced themselves and wished him luck these past couple of days, that he was now even more certain of his decision to sign with the Braves.
That Southern hospitality, agent Dan Evans said, was already evident to the 33-year-old pitcher.
I wrote in my story that he ate at the Varsity — “hot dogs, cheeseburgers and Coca-Colas,” he said through a translator — and at Morton’s downtown, and at the steakhouse he was introduced to former Atlanta mayor Andrew Young.
Evans said that Kawakami recognized his name from a sign on Andrew Young Boulevard near their downtown hotel.
Imagine, for a moment, what this must be like for a guy who was a star in Japan, who’d spent all 11 seasons over there with the same Chunichi Dragons team. Gotta admire him for having the stones to come to the U.S. and to a team that’s never had a Japanese player, when he could’ve just gone to one of those that already had or have a Japanese player and already ironed out the potential difficulties in the transition period for a player from that country.
Team meeting Wednesday: Another good move by Wren was to privately contact Braves players who are in Atlanta and invite them to a meeting/discussion at Turner Field on Wednesday, where they can say what’s on their minds and Wren can personally tell them about what the team is doing and how they’re trying to put together a roster that can contend for a playoff berth.
Been a lot of comments, including very public criticism by Chipper Jones, of the team’s moves before this week, including the perceived lack of a concerted effort to retain Smoltz when the Red Sox went after him harder than the Braves did, or at least that’s how it appeared to some Braves.
Anyway, players seemed pleased that Wren reached out to invite them down to talk it out. And that was before the news of the Lowe signing Wednesday morning, which was greeted with universal approval by Braves we talked to today.
Got some especially good quotes from a couple of Braves, including Chipper, who talked to Carroll Rogers, and Kelly Johnson, who I talked with on the phone for a while before the Kawakami news conference.
I’ll just give you their quotes in full, since I’m fading fast and need some food after this 12-hour workday of constant writing, rewriting, and press-conferencing:
Chippper Jones quotes:
On how he felt about the Braves signing Derek Lowe (before Chipper had heard enough to believe it entirely): “I’d feel better than I did 48 hours ago. I still think that can be a really good rotation with John Smoltz in it, but no sense crying over spilled milk. What we got is what we got. We’ve just got to go out there and play better. We were without Smoltzy for a long time last year, so we’re used to that at least. We’ve just got to go out and play better.”
“But I do like — if this is true — I do like having two guys that you can pretty much count on are going to go out there and throw 200 innings [Lowe and Vazquez] because that was a big part of our problem last year. We had too many instances where a starter went three or four innings and the bullpen got overtaxed and overused and ultimately overexposed.”
On Kawakami’s adjustment here: “His whole career he’s thrown in a six-man rotation, I don’t know how that’s going to translate over here because he’s used to a routine. That’s all he’s done his whole career, and now his routine is going to have to change. You always wonder how his arm and his body will adjust to that. But the good thing is if he can’t go, we have other options. We have a [Jorge] Campillo, a Jo-Jo [Reyes], a Charlie Morton, a Hanson. These last couple signings have, if anything, given us depth in the starting rotation.”
(Blogmeister note: Kawakami has actually pitched in a five-man rotation at times in Japan, such as in his 215-inning season in 2006. His innings were down significantly this season because he missed nearly a month for the Olympics and three weeks for a back strain.)
On his impressions of Japanese players who’ve joined the majors over the last decade and if he’s intrigued to have a Japanese player join the Braves: “I don’t think there’s any doubt they can play. I’ve faced Japanese pitchers for years starting with Nomo and Irabu, and Matsuzaka is really good, some of the closers Saito and Sasaki from Seattle Those guys have come over here and done real well, so there’s no doubt that the Japanese players can come over here and contribute well. [Kawakami] won the equivalent of the Cy Young over there. He knows what he’s doing. I would love to see a middle of the rotation that’s going to go out and give us seven innings every time out and keep us in the game. If he does that, he’s going to be very popular here.”
His thoughts on Lowe: “200 innings is the magic number for starters; he’s going to give you that. He’s going to keep you in ball games, he’s going to keep the ball on the ground. He’s a guy who pitches to contact, he relies on contact. He’s not a power strikeout guy, so we’re going to have to play good defense behind him, put the best possible eight guys out there behind him and play good defense. I don’t foresee that being a problem. Our infield is solid.
“However our outfield shapes up looks to be solid, so at least defensively, we’re going to have his back. That’s what you want — top of your rotation, a guy that you know will go out there every fifth day, is going to give you six, seven, eight innings, work fast, keep the ball on the ground, keep you in the game and give you a chance to win. Derek does that.”
So he’s a bonafide ace in your mind? “Yeah, definitely. There’s no doubt. You put him in this staff, he’s a definite No. 1. But I think with his age and his experience, that’s the spot you want him. You want him leading your staff because he’s been around the longest and he’s probably been the most proven.”
Kelly Johnson quotes:
Thoughts on the two signings, on the heels of Smoltz decision: “Big week, huh?
“He [Lowe] seems to be more of a fit in our locker room [than some other unnamed pitchers the Braves could have acquired], just from appearances. I’m a fan of [these two signings]. I think a lot of Lowe, I don’t know one hitter who —- well, there might be some left-handed hitters that can say whatever about him, but he’s a tough pitcher to face because of that sinkerball. I thought we should go after him from the beginning. Good fit for us.
“Kawakami is like Vazquez, doesn’t throw 98 but he’s one of those guys who keeps you off-balance. One of the keys for us is just the durability. I like the look when you’ve got those four guys in the first four spots, and the fifth spot with guys like Jo-Jo, Morton, Hanson, Bennett, Carlyle, Campillo….”
Any concern about possibly having all righty starters? “In my opinion, no, because I feel like a lot of the best left-handed hitters, the Howards and Utleys, seem to do just as well against lefties, I’ve seen Utltey hit a home run against Pedro Feliciano, one of the toughest lefties out there, and I’ve seen Howard do that. I think it’s a little different now. I think the bigger part of lety-right matchups is the bullpen.”
“Durability and giving you seven strong innings is the important thing [for starters].”
On Lowe being a groundball pitcher and the Braves having a solid defensive infield: “I’m lobbying that they keep the grass where it is right now, nice and long and thick.”
On the team in general: “We’ve got a lot of depth everywhere. If you get Frenchy back to where he was, or you get Matt Diaz back to where he was, then you get a surprise out of someone like a Brandon Jones, then all of a sudden you’re the Tampa Bay Rays. If Josh Anderson gets on base all the time, and all he’s stealing 70 bases … hey, this team suddenly is pretty good.”
OK, that’s it for me: I’m wiped out. Been a long freakin’ day, and I’m gonna be sitting in a dentist chair at 7:30 a.m., nine hours from now, being fitted for a crown and having some old fillings replaced.
”BIG IN JAPAN” by Tom Waits
I got the style but not the grace
I got the clothes but not the face
I got the bread but not the butter
I got the winda but not the shutter
But I’m big in Japan I’m big in Japan But heh I’m big in Japan
I got the house but not the deed
I got the horn but not the reed
I got the cards but not the luck
I got the wheel but not the truck
But heh I’m big in Japan I’m big in Japan I’m big in Japan
I got the moon I got the cheese
I got the whole damn nation on its knees
I got the rooster I got the crow
I got the ebb I got the flow
But heh I’m big in Japan I’m big in Japan I’m big in Japan
Heh ho they love the way I do it
Heh ho there’s really nothing to it
I got the moon I got the cheese
I got the whole damn nation on their knees
I got the rooster I got the crow
I got the ebb I got the flow
I got the sizzle but not the steak
I got the boat but not the lake
I got the sheets but not the bed
I got the jam but not the bread
But heh I’m big in Japan I’m big in Japan I’m big in Japan
I’m big in Japan I’m big in Japan
Permalink | Comments (955) | Post your comment |
T. Hanson, D. Lowe … continued
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Blogmeister note: Just reposting this blog until I can get a new one up, since other one crashed at around 1,000 posts, as usual. Carry on….
In the aftermath of Thursday’s John Smoltz terminus in Terminus (that was the original name of Atlanta), as Smoltz stories were splashed all over the newspaper waiting at the end of my driveway, it was interesting to see the cover of the Baseball America issue waiting in my mailbox.
The cover boy is none other than Tommy Hanson, possibly the most talented pitching prospect to come through the Braves system since … well, a long time.
Hanson is the top-rated Braves prospect by BA, which has its top 10 prospects list for every National League East team in this new issue. The cover reads, “Righthander Tommy Hanson dominates on his way to Atlanta and ascends to the top of the Braves’ prospect list.”
Most of you have already seen the list, but for those who haven’t: 1. Hanson, 2. OF Jason Heyward, 3. OF Jordan Schafer, 4. OF Gorkys Hernandez, 5. 1B Freddie Freeman, 6. LHP Cole Rohrbough, 7. LHP Jeff Locke, 8. RHP Julio Teheran, 9. RHP Kris Medlen, 10. RHP Craig Kimbrel.
I wouldn’t disagree with that list, from what I’ve seen with my own eyes and heard from scouts and team officials, though I do think Hanson and Heyward are probably interchangeable in the top two spots, and Schafer and Hernandez could probably go in either order in the next two.
Which brings us to this year’s starting rotation, which I think will include Hanson at some point, probably sooner than later (i.e., I think he’ll be up by early summer).
But that’s not what most of you want to know right now. Right now, you want to know who’s going to hold down the No. 1 spot, since an opening-day assignment for Javier Vazquez does not exactly get the pulses jumping across Braves Nation. Not that he’s bad, he’s just not a No. 1, not your classic opening-day starter.
Derek Lowe, he’d be a signigicant upgrade in that role, and provide the Braves a 200-inning veteran who could be penciled in for 15 or more wins. Check out what the sinkerballer did last year in L.A., with that slipshod infield defense _ 14-11 with a 3.24 ERA in 211 innings, including 6-1 with a 1.27 ERA in his last 10 starts.
The Braves’ infield defense should rank among the NL’s top third, at least, with SS Yunel Escobar and Gold Glove-caliber 1B Casey Kotchman. Chipper’s still a solid defensive player, and baseball people will tell you Kelly Johnson isn’t the liability some here make him out to be.
Now, whether the Braves could provide enough run support to boost Lowe’s win totals, that’s another story.
But anyway, Lowe and his agent, Scott Boras, visited for about five hours — yes, five hours — on Thursday with Braves staff and officials at Turner Field, a group that included GM Frank Wren, manager Bobby Cox, pitching coach Roger McDowell and CEO Terry McGuirk. Lowe was accompanied by Boras and one of the powerful agent’s top assistants.
From all accounts, everyone came out of the marathon session feeling good about the potential match of Lowe and the Braves, though until the Braves made their offer, which was expected today, it probably won’t be clear just how good a chance they have of landing the best available unsigned free agent.
The Braves pulled out the stops, from what I hear, preparing a video presentation for Lowe and Atlanta-would-love-to-have-you messages from several country music stars (he’s a big country fan) including Alan Jackson.
McDowell talked to him at length, as did Cox, who’s known Lowe since they were on a touring all-star team that went to Japan eight years ago. The Braves emphasized their strengths, including the pitching depth in their minor league organization, and also noted their weaknesses and how Lowe could help shore up a big one.
It’s almost certainly going to take a four-year deal, perhaps with a vesting fifth-year option, for the Braves to get the 35-year-old Lowe, who is also being pursued by the Mets and Phillies, with at least a couple of other teams expected to make bids.
The Mets already had floated a three-year, $36 mill offer for the right-hander, but Boras last week indicated that offer was never formally presented and that GM Omar Minaya knew it wouldn’t be enough for Lowe.
The Braves were expected to make an offer today, but they’re in lockdown mode right now regarding comments about potential targets, after so many pursuits this winter already blew up in their faces. They want Lowe, and badly. The Braves know they probably need him and another, lesser piece or two added to their current roster to have any shot of competing for a playoff spot out of a tough division.
Would four years at $15 mill per year get it done? Not sure. But it just might, considering no other offers have surfaced for Lowe. But if the Braves wait around for long and allow, say, the Chicago Cubs to get involved after their ownership situation is resolved, then the price could certainly rise.
You might have heard, Boras is pretty good and drumming up higher bids than anyone thought possible for his clients, but I’ve got to think that even he’d be hard-pressed to get much more than the above figures for Lowe in this economy.
Lowe’s a Fort Myers, Fla., resident, primarily because that’s where his ex-wife lives with their kids. He’s recently remarried, to a former Los Angeles television-news personality, and whether or not she’d be big on Atlanta, or whether that’s a big factor, is unclear. The glamour of New York and all that, you know.
Since he’s a Boras client, this could drag out. Then again, it’s already the second week of January, and even a Boras client has got to start getting a little itchy at this point, wanting to know where he’s going to be moving in a few months and where he’ll be going to spring training next month.
Ironically, ot coincidentally, or whatever, Lowe and Smoltz are two of only three pitchers in history to have a 20-win season and a 40-save season (Dennis Eckersley’s the other), and Smoltz’s signing with Boston might have improrved the chances that Lowe ends up in Atlanta.
Because not only are the Red Sox seemingly less likely to get in the Lowe bidding now, but the Braves are also probably a little more desperate than they were a couple of days ago, when they’d already scheduled the Lowe visit and had no idea it would come on the day that Smoltz’s momentous decision would be the talk of Atlanta.
Stay tuned. The Lowe matter could be interesting in the coming days.
Kawakami update: Heard today (Saturday) from someone who would know that the Braves have reached an agreement with the the 33-year-old former winner of the Japanese equivelent of the Cy Young Award, and it looks like a deal could be announced in the next few days provided he passes a physical Monday.
Other teams that were considered to be among four finalists for Kenshin Kawakami are now saying they’ve been led to believe he’s going to the Braves. And to think, less than two weeks ago Japanese papers were reporting that Kawakami had narrowed his list to three finalists and that the Braves weren’t one of them.
Kawakami, a wily right-hander, is projected as a solid middle-rotation starter in the majors at this stage of his career.
He isn’t likely to be an innings-eater at this stage of his career. Although Kawakami pitched a career-high 215 innings in 2006, he totaled 167-1/3 innings in 2007 and only 117-1/3 in 2008, when he missed time with a back strain and reportedly had shoulder soreness.
He was part of a six-man this past season in Japan, pitching basically once a week. (Conditioning for pitchers in Japan hasn’t been considered as crucial as it is in the States. Japanese teams sometimes use six-man rotations, and most Japanese pitchers make fewer than 30 starts.)
Can he help the Braves? Unquestionably. If they could land Lowe or trade for something at least close to a top-of-the-rotation starter, the addition of Kawakami to a rotation that already includes Jair Jurrejens and Javier Vazquez, with several others competing for a fifth spot and Tommy Hanson waiting in the wings … well, things could get a lot more optimistic in a hurry.
But until they also land a Lowe or someone else of a top-half-of-rotation quality, the Braves still have a major question mark in that rotation, not to mention the glaring need for another outfield bat.
No updates on that — I mentioned the lockdown mode at Braves offices — but they’re still exploring and talking about free agents and trade targets, including bigger names that suddenly seem more affordable, such as Adam Dunn.
They like Xavier Nady, and the Yankees want to trade Nady instead of Nick Swisher, but Boras represents Nady and teams know that means he’ll go to free agency at the end of the 2009 season when his contract’s up. Can’t see the Braves, or any team, giving up significant talent to get Nady in a one-year rental, but if than Yankees would take less than expected in return, it’s possible.
The Yankees’ Nick Swisher isn’t as good as Nady but might be more attractive to many teams (not necessarily the Braves) because he’d be under a team’s control for three or four more years. But that’s the same reason the Yankees seem less likely to trade him.
Wren speaks: In case you guys missed it last night, I posted some comments from Wren on the Smoltz matter after the GM called me back at about 8 p.m.
This is what he said:
“We appreciate all John’s done for us over the years. We’ve been very consistent since the end of the season — I stated that our mission, our goal, was to rebuid our pitching staff, and once we had a good understanding and knowledge of how far the rehab had gone with John and Tommy, we would make them an offer. We followed up with that and made an offer prior to Christmas to John.”
On the Braves offering less guaranteed money than Red Sox:
“I just think there’s still a lot of information we don’t have, from standpoint that John himself will tell you he’snot going to be able to pitch until June. That’s still five or six months of rehab. We just don’t know if he’ll be able to pitch again. We hoped he could. Our offer was indicative of that, that unknown.”
“We’ve always had the same feeling — if John could pitch, we wanted him back. And I think our offer was such, if John could pitch … it was a similar incentive-based offer that if he could pitch he would make a similar amount. Probably the biggest difference was if he can’t pitch, he would make more in Boston. If he can pitch he’d make the same in both places. And a lot of that is based on when he can pitch and how much of the season is lost.”
On whether the Red Sox could afford to guarantee more, etc:
“Yes, but it was never that we didn’t want John back or a lack of respect for John. Our priority was to have a pitching staff that would allow us to go into the season not concerned about rehabs and injuries and the things that set us back in 2008. And that still stands.”
On how tough this kind of thing is for a GM:
“No question. Anybody that sits in this chair will tell you the most difficult decision you make are with aging stars, plain and simple. Because you respect them, you want them to be a part of your organization forever. But the reality is, they’re getting older and they’re not the same.”
”BIG IRON” by Marty Robbins
To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day
Hardly spoke to folks around him didn’t have too much to say
No one dared to ask his business no one dared to make a slip
for the stranger there among them had a big iron on his hip
Big iron on his hip
It was early in the morning when he rode into the town
He came riding from the south side slowly lookin’ all around
He’s an outlaw loose and running came the whisper from each lip
And he’s here to do some business with the big iron on his hip
big iron on his hip
In this town there lived an outlaw by the name of Texas Red
Many men had tried to take him and that many men were dead
He was vicious and a killer though a youth of twenty four
And the notches on his pistol numbered one an nineteen more
One and nineteen more
Now the stranger started talking made it plain to folks around
Was an Arizona ranger wouldn’t be too long in town
He came here to take an outlaw back alive or maybe dead
And he said it didn’t matter he was after Texas Red
After Texas Red
Wasn’t long before the story was relayed to Texas Red
But the outlaw didn’t worry men that tried before were dead
Twenty men had tried to take him twenty men had made a slip
Twenty one would be the ranger with the big iron on his hip
Big iron on his hip
The morning passed so quickly it was time for them to meet
It was twenty past eleven when they walked out in the street
Folks were watching from the windows every-body held their breath
They knew this handsome ranger was about to meet his death
About to meet his death
There was forty feet between them when they stopped to make their play
And the swiftness of the ranger is still talked about today
Texas Red had not cleared leather fore a bullet fairly ripped
And the ranger’s aim was deadly with the big iron on his hip
Big iron on his hip
It was over in a moment and the folks had gathered round
There before them lay the body of the outlaw on the ground
Oh he might have went on living but he made one fatal slip
When he tried to match the ranger with the big iron on his hip
Big iron on his hip
T. Hanson on way, but is D. Lowe?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
On the day after the John Smoltz terminus in Terminus (that was the original name of Atlanta), as Smoltz stories were splashed all over the newspaper waiting at the end of my driveway, it was interesting to see the cover of the Baseball America issue waiting in my mailbox.
The cover boy is none other than Tommy Hanson, possibly the most talented pitching prospect to come through the Braves system since … well, a long time.
Hanson is the top-rated Braves prospect by BA, which has its top 10 prospects list for every National League East team in this new issue. The cover reads, “Righthander Tommy Hanson dominates on his way to Atlanta and ascends to the top of the Braves’ prospect list.”
Most of you have already seen the list, but for those who haven’t: 1. Hanson, 2. OF Jason Heyward, 3. OF Jordan Schafer, 4. OF Gorkys Hernandez, 5. 1B Freddie Freeman, 6. LHP Cole Rohrbough, 7. LHP Jeff Locke, 8. RHP Julio Teheran, 9. RHP Kris Medlen, 10. RHP Craig Kimbrel.
I wouldn’t disagree with that list, from what I’ve seen with my own eyes and heard from scouts and team officials, though I do think Hanson and Heyward are probably interchangeable in the top two spots, and Schafer and Hernandez could probably go in either order in the next two.
Which brings us to this year’s starting rotation, which I think will include Hanson at some point, probably sooner than later (i.e., I think he’ll be up by early summer).
But that’s not what most of you want to know right now. Right now, you want to know who’s going to hold down the No. 1 spot, since an opening-day assignment for Javier Vazquez does not exactly get the pulses jumping across Braves Nation. Not that he’s bad, he’s just not a No. 1, not your classic opening-day starter.
Derek Lowe, he’d be a signigicant upgrade in that role, and provide the Braves a 200-inning veteran who could be penciled in for 15 or more wins. Check out what the sinkerballer did last year in L.A., with that slipshod infield defense _ 14-11 with a 3.24 ERA in 211 innings, including 6-1 with a 1.27 ERA in his last 10 starts.
The Braves’ infield defense should rank among the NL’s top third, at least, with SS Yunel Escobar and Gold Glove-caliber 1B Casey Kotchman. Chipper’s still a solid defensive player, and baseball people will tell you Kelly Johnson isn’t the liability some here make him out to be.
Now, whether the Braves could provide enough run support to boost Lowe’s win totals, that’s another story.
But anyway, Lowe and his agent, Scott Boras, visited for about five hours - yes, five - yesterday with Braves officials at Turner Field, a wide-ranging group that included GM Frank Wren, manager Bobby Cox, pitching coach Roger McDowell and CEO Terry McGuirk. Lowe was accompanied by Boras and one of the powerful agent’s top assistants.
From all accounts, everyone came out of the marathon session feeling good about the potential match of Lowe and the Braves, though until the Braves made their offer, which was expected today, it probably won’t be clear just how good a chance they have of landing the best available unsigned free agent.
The Braves pulled out the stops, from what I hear, preparing a video presentation for Lowe and Atlanta-would-love-to-have-you messages from several country music stars (he’s a big country fan) including Alan Jackson.
McDowell talked to him at length, as did Cox, who’s known Lowe since they were on a touring all-star team that went to Japan eight years ago. The Braves emphasized their strengths, including the pitching depth in their minor league organization, and also noted their weaknesses and how Lowe could help shore up a big one.
It’s almost certainly going to take a four-year deal, perhaps with a vesting fifth-year option, for the Braves to get the 35-year-old Lowe, who is also being pursued by the Mets and Phillies, with at least a couple of other teams expected to make bids.
The Mets already had floated a three-year, $36 mill offer for the right-hander, but Boras last week indicated that offer was never formally presented and that GM Omar Minaya knew it wouldn’t be enough for Lowe.
The Braves were expected to make an offer today, but they’re in lockdown mode right now regarding comments about potential targets, after so many pursuits this winter already blew up in their faces. They want Lowe, and badly. The Braves know they probably need him and another, lesser piece or two added to their current roster to have any shot of competing for a playoff spot out of a tough division.
Would four years at $15 mill per year get it done? Not sure. But it just might, considering no other offers have surfaced for Lowe. But if the Braves wait around for long and allow, say, the Chicago Cubs to get involved after their ownership situation is resolved, then the price could certainly rise.
You might have heard, Boras is pretty good and drumming up higher bids than anyone thought possible for his clients, but I’ve got to think that even he’d be hard-pressed to get much more than the above figures for Lowe in this economy.
Lowe’s a Fort Myers, Fla., resident, primarily because that’s where his ex-wife lives with their kids. He’s recently remarried, to a former Los Angeles television-news personality, and whether or not she’d be big on Atlanta, or whether that’s a big factor, is unclear. The glamour of New York and all that, you know.
Since he’s a Boras client, this could drag out. Then again, it’s already the second week of January, and even a Boras client has got to start getting a little itchy at this point, wanting to know where he’s going to be moving in a few months and where he’ll be going to spring training next month.
Ironically, ot coincidentally, or whatever, Lowe and Smoltz are two of only three pitchers in history to have a 20-win season and a 40-save season (Dennis Eckersley’s the other), and Smoltz’s signing with Boston might have improrved the chances that Lowe ends up in Atlanta.
Because not only are the Red Sox seemingly less likely to get in the Lowe bidding now, but the Braves are also probably a little more desperate than they were a couple of days ago, when they’d already scheduled the Lowe visit and had no idea it would come on the day that Smoltz’s momentous decision would be the talk of Atlanta.
Stay tuned. The Lowe matter could be interesting in the coming days.
Kawakami update: Heard today (Saturday) from someone who would know that the Braves have reached an agreement with the the 33-year-old former winner of the Japanese equivelent of the Cy Young Award, and it looks like a deal could be announced in the next few days provided he passes a physical Monday.
Other teams that were considered to be among four finalists for Kenshin Kawakami are now saying they’ve been led to believe he’s going to the Braves. And to think, less than two weeks ago Japanese papers were reporting that Kawakami had narrowed his list to three finalists and that the Braves weren’t one of them.
Kawakami, a wily right-hander, is projected as a solid middle-rotation starter in the majors at this stage of his career.
He isn’t likely to be an innings-eater at this stage of his career. Although Kawakami pitched a career-high 215 innings in 2006, he totaled 167-1/3 innings in 2007 and only 117-1/3 in 2008, when he missed time with a back strain and reportedly had shoulder soreness.
He was part of a six-man this past season in Japan, pitching basically once a week. (Conditioning for pitchers in Japan hasn’t been considered as crucial as it is in the States. Japanese teams sometimes use six-man rotations, and most Japanese pitchers make fewer than 30 starts.)
Can he help the Braves? Unquestionably. If they could land Lowe or trade for something at least close to a top-of-the-rotation starter, the addition of Kawakami to a rotation that already includes Jair Jurrejens and Javier Vazquez, with several others competing for a fifth spot and Tommy Hanson waiting in the wings … well, things could get a lot more optimistic in a hurry.
But until they also land a Lowe or someone else of a top-half-of-rotation quality, the Braves still have a major question mark in that rotation, not to mention the glaring need for another outfield bat.
No updates on that — I mentioned the lockdown mode at Braves offices — but they’re still exploring and talking about free agents and trade targets, including bigger names that suddenly seem more affordable, such as Adam Dunn.
They like Xavier Nady, and the Yankees want to trade Nady instead of Nick Swisher, but Boras represents Nady and teams know that means he’ll go to free agency at the end of the 2009 season when his contract’s up. Can’t see the Braves, or any team, giving up significant talent to get Nady in a one-year rental, but if than Yankees would take less than expected in return, it’s possible.
The Yankees’ Nick Swisher isn’t as good as Nady but might be more attractive to many teams (not necessarily the Braves) because he’d be under a team’s control for three or four more years. But that’s the same reason the Yankees seem less likely to trade him.
Wren speaks: In case you guys missed it last night, I posted some comments from Wren on the Smoltz matter after the GM called me back at about 8 p.m.
This is what he said:
“We appreciate all John’s done for us over the years. We’ve been very consistent since the end of the season — I stated that our mission, our goal, was to rebuid our pitching staff, and once we had a good understanding and knowledge of how far the rehab had gone with John and Tommy, we would make them an offer. We followed up with that and made an offer prior to Christmas to John.”
On the Braves offering less guaranteed money than Red Sox:
“I just think there’s still a lot of information we don’t have, from standpoint that John himself will tell you he’snot going to be able to pitch until June. That’s still five or six months of rehab. We just don’t know if he’ll be able to pitch again. We hoped he could. Our offer was indicative of that, that unknown.”
“We’ve always had the same feeling — if John could pitch, we wanted him back. And I think our offer was such, if John could pitch … it was a similar incentive-based offer that if he could pitch he would make a similar amount. Probably the biggest difference was if he can’t pitch, he would make more in Boston. If he can pitch he’d make the same in both places. And a lot of that is based on when he can pitch and how much of the season is lost.”
On whether the Red Sox could afford to guarantee more, etc:
“Yes, but it was never that we didn’t want John back or a lack of respect for John. Our priority was to have a pitching staff that would allow us to go into the season not concerned about rehabs and injuries and the things that set us back in 2008. And that still stands.”
On how tough this kind of thing is for a GM:
“No question. Anybody that sits in this chair will tell you the most difficult decision you make are with aging stars, plain and simple. Because you respect them, you want them to be a part of your organization forever. But the reality is, they’re getting older and they’re not the same.”
”BIG IRON” by Marty Robbins
To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day
Hardly spoke to folks around him didn’t have too much to say
No one dared to ask his business no one dared to make a slip
for the stranger there among them had a big iron on his hip
Big iron on his hip
It was early in the morning when he rode into the town
He came riding from the south side slowly lookin’ all around
He’s an outlaw loose and running came the whisper from each lip
And he’s here to do some business with the big iron on his hip
big iron on his hip
In this town there lived an outlaw by the name of Texas Red
Many men had tried to take him and that many men were dead
He was vicious and a killer though a youth of twenty four
And the notches on his pistol numbered one an nineteen more
One and nineteen more
Now the stranger started talking made it plain to folks around
Was an Arizona ranger wouldn’t be too long in town
He came here to take an outlaw back alive or maybe dead
And he said it didn’t matter he was after Texas Red
After Texas Red
Wasn’t long before the story was relayed to Texas Red
But the outlaw didn’t worry men that tried before were dead
Twenty men had tried to take him twenty men had made a slip
Twenty one would be the ranger with the big iron on his hip
Big iron on his hip
The morning passed so quickly it was time for them to meet
It was twenty past eleven when they walked out in the street
Folks were watching from the windows every-body held their breath
They knew this handsome ranger was about to meet his death
About to meet his death
There was forty feet between them when they stopped to make their play
And the swiftness of the ranger is still talked about today
Texas Red had not cleared leather fore a bullet fairly ripped
And the ranger’s aim was deadly with the big iron on his hip
Big iron on his hip
It was over in a moment and the folks had gathered round
There before them lay the body of the outlaw on the ground
Oh he might have went on living but he made one fatal slip
When he tried to match the ranger with the big iron on his hip
Big iron on his hip
Permalink | Comments (930) | Post your comment |
Smoltz is leaving, and that matters
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
To condemn Frank Wren as someone who’s “singlehandedly dismantled the franchise in two years,” as one irate fan did on the last blog, is flat-out wrong. He’s only been on the job 15 months, not two years.
Ba-da-bum.
No, but seriously … folks, Wren has been getting bombarded with over-the-top criticism today for his performance since accepting the Brave reins from legendary GM John Schuerholz just after the 2007 season ended.
Then again, that’s what a seemingly obvious blunder like offering less than half of the guaranteed money that Boston offered to Braves icon John Smoltz will do for your approval rating.
Let’s not forget that Wren traded Edgar Renteria for Jair Jurrjens and Gorkys Hernandez. Traded a rookie reliever whose name 98 percent of you can’t remember right now to Chicago for Will Ohman for Omar Infante.
This fall, he refused to throw in Tommy Hanson or Jason Heyward, the Braves’ best two prospects, with a boatload of other talent in a proposed deal for Jake Peavy, as San Diego wanted. Wise move, given how highly regarded both of those young guys are and how much they could reasonably be expected to do for the Braves in the next decade.
But then things starting going south in Wren’s and the Braves’ trade and free-agent pursuits. Way south. They were turned down by Mike Hampton. Fell short in a bid for Japanese pitcher Junichi Tazawa. Pulled out of their six-week negotiations for Peavy after those talks stalled when the Padres kept changing the playing field.
Then, the Braves were outbid by the Yankees for pitcher A.J. Burnett. Followed by the debacle with shortstop Rafael Furcal, after which Schuerholz called Furcal’s agent’s actions “despicable” and announced the Braves would not pursue any clients of that agency.
It’s been one ugly offseason, folks. Not the kind of winter long associated with the buttoned-down Braves, who once made their moves in stealth fashion and usually got their man in the end.
Three belt-tightened years without a postseason, including two third-place finishes and a fourth place in 2008, will tend to shrink the cache level of your franchise, particularly when one of the game’s winningest managers is at the end of his career and the players that guided the team to 14 consecutive division titles are almost all gone. Braves can’t woo free agents the way they used to.
All that said, the Wren criticism was largely unfair before this Smoltz matter. Not much more he could have done in a few of those previous cases.
But in this one, it’s a bit difficult to defend the Braves’ stance. Not that $2.5 mill guaranteed, with incentives that could’ve pushed it to $10 mill or slightly more (he’d have had to have a vintage Smoltz season to maximize that amount) weren’t a reasonable contract for a 41-year-old coming off shoulder surgery.
But Smoltz is not just a 41-year-old coming off shoulder surgery. He’s an exception, if ever there was one. These decisions have to be made with more than just baseball and bottom-line economics in mind, don’t they? Or maybe not? What do you think?
Me, it just seems like the Braves, after hearing what the Red Sox were offering, probably should have said, “Smoltzie, if we have to match it to keep you, we will.” But, hey, after being bitten by pitching injuries the past few years, the Braves seemed unwilling to go beyond what they deemed a reasonable amount to pay Smoltz.
Surely they must’ve known there would be outcry from a great many Braves fans. And there has been. Man, has there ever. Over 1,000 comments in 12 hours on the previous blog, despite it being filed after midnight. Which is why I’m doing a second one in a 14-hour span.
But in this Smoltz instance, I just think the Braves misread it a bit, or underestimated the level of adoration for Smoltz in this town. He’s the one exception. The $5.5 mill guaranteed is excessive for a 42-year-old coming off shoulder surgery, but the fact that Boston was willing to pay it says all you need to know about Smoltz’s reputation, his track record, what he brings to a team in all respects, etc.
It’s a tough sell to tell many Braves fans that he wasn’t worth at least as much to the only team he’s been on. Even Shaun and J.C. have to understand that this is an extremely exceptional case. A lot of people here can’t understand how spending the extra $3 mill on Smoltz wouldn’t have been worth it.
That’s understandable.
Was it a good baseball move, strictly speaking. Yes, if Smoltz was just another 41-year-old (42 in May) coming off shoulder surgery, and not a true franchise icon in every sense of the word. But he’s not just another 41-year-old coming off shoulder surgery.
He’s John Smoltz. The $3 mill difference could have been covered and consider like a gold watch - albeit an expensive one - for a loyal and overachieving employee at the end of his career. Instead, that $3 mill difference in guaranteed money is viewed by many as a very bad reason not to have kept Smoltz.
He pitched in over 700 games for the Braves, winning 210 and saving 154.
And that didn’t even include the postseason, where he holds the records for wins (15) and strikeouts (194 in 207 innings), even though the Braves haven’t been to the postseason in three years.
This is the last uniformed Brave, other than Bobby Cox, to have been a part of the entire 14-year division-title streak. To have been there for the worst-to-first season and every season since.
He and Chipper Jones, and Cox, have been the faces of the Braves. Now that Mount Rushmore of Bravesdom is losing its bearded face, and how much longer will Chipper and Bobby be around? (Judging from Chipper’s comments today, perhaps not as long as we thought).
Like I asked after midnight, what do you think, Braves fans? Blunder or good business decision? Do you think they should offer Chipper an extension now?
And what’s it going to take for the Braves to have an acceptable offseason in your view? Derek Lowe’s meeting with them today, and my guess is the Braves are making him a bigger offer than they might have 24 hours ago. Just a hunch.
This winter of Braves discontent can’t end soon enough.
“I’M SO LONESOME I COULD CRY” by Hank Williams
Hear that lonesome whippoorwill?
He sounds too blue to fly.
The midnight train is whining low:
I’m so lonesome I could cry.
I’ve never seen a night so long,
When time goes crawling by.
The moon just went behind a cloud,
To hide its face and cry.
Did you ever see a Robin weep,
When leaves begin to die?
That means he’s lost his will to live.
I’m so lonesome I could cry.
The silence of a falling star,
Lights up a purple sky.
And as I wonder where you are,
I’m so lonesome I could cry.
I’m so lonesome I could cry.
Permalink | Comments (970) | Post your comment |
Jolting news about Smoltz
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Editor note: Because of technical problems when commenting on an entry is very high, this is a repeat of David’s last post. So pick up the commenting thread here:
I would not want to be a certain Braves official in the next couple of days, explaining why John Smoltz is not going to be back with the only major league team he’s ever pitched for.
The guess here is that no reason given is going to help the Braves avoid the ire of a large portion of Braves fans who wanted to see John Smoltz retire a Brave, even if it meant committing a guaranteed $5 million or so to the 41-year-old pitcher who’s coming back from shoulder surgery and might not be ready to pitch the first month or more of the season.
It’s John Smoltz, after all. John Freakin’ Smoltz. Four elbow surgeries hadn’t stopped him from forging ahead in his career with the Braves — always the Braves. June shoulder surgery didn’t stop him, when a lot of people thought it would.
But the lack of a contract offer from Atlanta that was anywhere near the value of the one the Red Sox have reportedly offered him — $5.5 million, plus another possible $5 mill in incentives — is going to do what the surgeon’s scalpel and free-agent offers from the likes of the Yankees in previous years could not.
End his career with Atlanta.
He’d pitched in over 700 games for them, winning 210 and saving 154.
And that didn’t include the postseason, where he still holds the career records for wins (15) and strikeouts (194 in 207 innings), even though the Braves haven’t been to the postseason in three years.
This is the last uniformed Brave, other than Bobby Cox, to have been a part of the entire 14-year division-title streak. To have been there for the worst-to-first season and every season since.
He and Chipper Jones, and Cox, have been the faces of the Braves. Now that Mount Rushmore of Bravesdom is losing its bearded face, barring some unforeseen change of heart at the last minute (and Smoltz isn’t the type to do to the Red Sox what Furcal and his agent did to the Braves two weeks ago, when they allegedly reneged on a contract agreement).
No, Smoltz is going. To Boston. To pitch for the Red Sox. Oy.
If the Braves weren’t regarded as much of a playoff contender next year, many fans at least looked forward to Smoltz coming back yet again, defying skeptics, continuing his march up the career pitching charts while providing some memorable afternoon and nights at Turner Field.
He’s 16th on the major league strikeout list, fifth among active pitchers. He ranks among the top three in almost every Atlanta Braves pitching category.
Well, he won’t be moving up those Atlanta charts any higher, apparently. But Smoltz will more than likely pitch for the Red Sox. He’s come this far in his recovery. Anyone who’s seen him defy the odds before, wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him pitching in the postseason for the Red Sox.
If Chief Knockahoma was still around, a tear might be running down his face about now, like the chief in those old “Don’t litter” public-service announcements.
What do you think, Braves fans? Does this surprise you? Do you understand why the Braves might not be willing to make as big a commitment to Smoltz? Should they have not worried about spending a few more mill than they were comfortable spending, when it came to keeping a career Brave of Smoltz’s stature?
Do you think they might want to sign up Chipper Jones to an extension now?
And finally, what’s it going to take now for the Braves to have an acceptable offseason in your view? Because right now, for the Braves this winter has truly become the winter of their discontent.
Whatever Derek Lowe wants, it might be time to sign the check.
“I’M SO LONESOME I COULD CRY” by Hank Williams
Hear that lonesome whippoorwill?
He sounds too blue to fly.
The midnight train is whining low:
I’m so lonesome I could cry.
I’ve never seen a night so long,
When time goes crawling by.
The moon just went behind a cloud,
To hide its face and cry.
Did you ever see a Robin weep,
When leaves begin to die?
That means he’s lost his will to live.
I’m so lonesome I could cry.
The silence of a falling star,
Lights up a purple sky.
And as I wonder where you are,
I’m so lonesome I could cry.
I’m so lonesome I could cry.
Permalink | Comments (118) | Post your comment |
Jolting news about Smoltz
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Editors’ note: Because of technical problems when commenting on an entry is very high, we’ve repeated this entry. So you can pick up the commenting thread on the 1:31 p.m. entry:
I would not want to be a certain Braves official in the next couple of days, explaining why John Smoltz is not going to be back with the only major league team he’s ever pitched for.
The guess here is that no reason given is going to help the Braves avoid the ire of a large portion of Braves fans who wanted to see John Smoltz retire a Brave, even if it meant committing a guaranteed $5 million or so to the 41-year-old pitcher who’s coming back from shoulder surgery and might not be ready to pitch the first month or more of the season.
It’s John Smoltz, after all. John Freakin’ Smoltz. Four elbow surgeries hadn’t stopped him from forging ahead in his career with the Braves — always the Braves. June shoulder surgery didn’t stop him, when a lot of people thought it would.
But the lack of a contract offer from Atlanta that was anywhere near the value of the one the Red Sox have reportedly offered him — $5.5 million, plus another possible $5 mill in incentives — is going to do what the surgeon’s scalpel and free-agent offers from the likes of the Yankees in previous years could not.
End his career with Atlanta.
He’d pitched in over 700 games for them, winning 210 and saving 154.
And that didn’t include the postseason, where he still holds the career records for wins (15) and strikeouts (194 in 207 innings), even though the Braves haven’t been to the postseason in three years.
This is the last uniformed Brave, other than Bobby Cox, to have been a part of the entire 14-year division-title streak. To have been there for the worst-to-first season and every season since.
He and Chipper Jones, and Cox, have been the faces of the Braves. Now that Mount Rushmore of Bravesdom is losing its bearded face, barring some unforeseen change of heart at the last minute (and Smoltz isn’t the type to do to the Red Sox what Furcal and his agent did to the Braves two weeks ago, when they allegedly reneged on a contract agreement).
No, Smoltz is going. To Boston. To pitch for the Red Sox. Oy.
If the Braves weren’t regarded as much of a playoff contender next year, many fans at least looked forward to Smoltz coming back yet again, defying skeptics, continuing his march up the career pitching charts while providing some memorable afternoon and nights at Turner Field.
He’s 16th on the major league strikeout list, fifth among active pitchers. He ranks among the top three in almost every Atlanta Braves pitching category.
Well, he won’t be moving up those Atlanta charts any higher, apparently. But Smoltz will more than likely pitch for the Red Sox. He’s come this far in his recovery. Anyone who’s seen him defy the odds before, wouldn’t be at all surprised to see him pitching in the postseason for the Red Sox.
If Chief Knockahoma was still around, a tear might be running down his face about now, like the chief in those old “Don’t litter” public-service announcements.
What do you think, Braves fans? Does this surprise you? Do you understand why the Braves might not be willing to make as big a commitment to Smoltz? Should they have not worried about spending a few more mill than they were comfortable spending, when it came to keeping a career Brave of Smoltz’s stature?
Do you think they might want to sign up Chipper Jones to an extension now?
And finally, what’s it going to take now for the Braves to have an acceptable offseason in your view? Because right now, for the Braves this winter has truly become the winter of their discontent.
Whatever Derek Lowe wants, it might be time to sign the check.
“I’M SO LONESOME I COULD CRY” by Hank Williams
Hear that lonesome whippoorwill?
He sounds too blue to fly.
The midnight train is whining low:
I’m so lonesome I could cry.
I’ve never seen a night so long,
When time goes crawling by.
The moon just went behind a cloud,
To hide its face and cry.
Did you ever see a Robin weep,
When leaves begin to die?
That means he’s lost his will to live.
I’m so lonesome I could cry.
The silence of a falling star,
Lights up a purple sky.
And as I wonder where you are,
I’m so lonesome I could cry.
I’m so lonesome I could cry.
Lowe on hill, Andruw in outfield?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Well, hello again, denizens, it’s good to be back from Colorado’s perfectly powdery slopes — with femurs, wrists and my back intact and spirits rejuvenated by a snowboarding vacation.
After the business of baseball slowed to a crawl through the holidays, things figure to pick up substantially this week for many teams including the Braves. What, you thought Frank Wren and staff were done pursuing an ace and an outfielder?
No. What they’ve got right now is not exactly a likely playoff contender, after all.
So, how does Derek Lowe sound as an opening day starter? Could happen.
First, before we go any further, we have to discuss Andruw Jones and the fact that, according to agent Scott Boras, the fallen former Braves star will be a free agent Jan. 15 (assuming he’s not traded before then, probably a safe assumption given that no team seems ready to pay him anywhere near a $5 mill salary, much less give up any talent as part of a trade).
Boras told me today (Sunday) that he worked out this new deal with the Dodgers that would relieve them of most of Jones’ salary commitment this season, helping both parties (Dodgers can spend on other needs, and Jones can try to restart his career elsewhere).
The revised deal will defer much of the $21.1 mill that Jones is still owed from the two-year, $32.2 mill deal he signed with the Dodgers (yes, he’s still owed two-thirds of the total, including a big signing bonus).
The reworked deal reportedly drops Andruw’s salary from the originally scheduled $15 mill to about $5 mill this year, but that’s still more than teams are ready to spend for a player who’s had the worst offensive numbers of any lineup regular in baseball since the second half of the 2006 season.
Andruw’s first (and only) season with the Dodgers was an unmitigated disaster. No, it really was, relatively speaking, of course.
He hit .158 with three homers, 33 hits and 76 strikeouts in 209 at-bats, had midseason knee surgery for cartilage damage, was booed from opening day by Dodger Stadium fans, and was left off the team’s postseason roster.
Over the past two seasons, he’s hit .205 with 25 homers, 108 RBIs and a .297 OBP and .369 slugging percentage in 229 games, with 214 strikeouts and 97 walks in 781 at-bats.
And since his career began to careen off the tracks shortly after the 2006 All-Star break — since July 21, 2006, to be exact — Andruw has done this in 291 games played: .209 average (208-for-993), 46 doubles, 46 homers, 149 RBI, .312 OBP, .401 slugging, 262 strikeouts, 137 walks, four stolen bases.
Let’s repeat that: 291 games, .209 average, .312 OBP, .401 slugging.
Unless the Dodgers find a team to make a trade for Andruw and take on even a portion of the salary he would make under his reworked contract, he’s going to become a free agent Jan. 15, and the Dodgers will pay him the entire amount he’s owed.
Jones would be like any other free agent, able to sign with any team for any amount.
My question for Braves fans is this: Should the Braves consider making him a minimal one-year offer, say $1 mill with incentives? They do, after all, need a right-handed hitting outfielder, and they’d prefer to keep Jordan Schafer in the minors a little longer since he’s only got a little over a half-season of experience above A-ball and none in Triple-A.
If it involved anything more than a minimal offer, I’d suggest that signing Jones would not be a bad idea. (Can’t believe I’m actually saying that, but stay with me here.) Certainly, the Braves shouldn’t give up anything of value in a trade for him. But a minimal free-agent offer could make some sense, long as it wouldn’t force the Braves to waive someone off the 40-man roster. If they could sign Jones to a minor-league contract with assurances he’d be added to the major league roster if he plays well this spring, then yes, I’d do that for sure.
But I don’t know if Jones would accept such a deal. Then again, I also don’t know if he’ll have much choice, particularly if he wants badly to get back to the Braves, which I know he does. Barring some unexpected substantially larger offer from another team, I’ve got to think Jones would take just about any offer from the Braves in order to come home (he still has his home in the north Atlanta ‘burbs) and try to restart his career and try to help Bobby Cox get back to the postseason.
Boras tells me that Andruw’s down to 230 pounds, is playing winter ball again in the Dominican, and fully understands that he’s on the edge of his career, that he must prove himself again and show that he’s not washed up at 31 (32 in April).
Is it worth a gamble? If the gamble’s minimal, and considering that the Braves’ current options (other than the very talented Schafer) are Josh Anderson and Gregor Blanco, then yes, I’d have to say it’s probably worth bringing Jones to spring training to see just how motivated he is to prove he’s not finished and to show the Braves how grateful he is for them taking a chance on him and bringing him home.
What’s the worst that could happen? He’d stink in spring training and the Braves could, once and for all, wash their hands of him. Fans would know they gave him another shot and it didn’t work out.
But if, on the chance that he’s got something left, that he isn’t completely hapless in the face of low-and-away breaking balls and his knee isn’t bad and he isn’t going to collapse on his back leg on most swings, well, hey, then maybe he could be something resembling the 10-time Gold Glove winner he was with the Braves, a guy who piled up 92 homers and 257 RBI during the 2005-06 seasons (was it really only that long ago?)
Hey, don’t get your hopes up. I wouldn’t count on Jones being more than a shell of what he once was. But it’s probably worth a shot.
We’ll see. For now, I don’t know how interested the Braves might be (GM Frank Wren couldn’t comment on the subject today, citing the fact that Jones is still a member of another team).
Now, about Lowe…. If there’s any possible positive spin that can be applied to the Braves’ much-chronicled swings and misses so far this winter, it’s that they still have plenty of money to spend and the price of pitchers and corner outfielders seems to be in steep decline.
If they could get Bobby Abreu or Pat Burrell for a one-year deal at under $10 million, then I’m guessing the Braves will make a bid for one of them.
Their lack of interest in those two and others earlier this winter was in large part due to the long-term commitment that it seemed most free-agent outfielders would get, and the fact the Braves didn’t want to be tied up with one of those guys for three years at more than $10 mill annually when they have several outfield prospects getting closer to the majors.
And then there’s Lowe, unquestionably the best pitcher still available on the market, given that Ben Sheets reportedly has both elbow and shoulder issues that have teams wary of signing the Milwaukee free agent.
Lowe is a proven workhorse and big-game pitcher who’s one drawback is age (well, that and the fact he’s represented by Boras, who you might know as someone who drives a hard bargain). Lowe will be 36 in June.
Otherwise, his resume simply blows away that of, say, A.J. Burnett, who is 4-1/2 years younger but has battled elbow, shoulder and other injuries throughout his career and has a total of three 200-inning seasons and one season with more than 12 wins.
Burnett got a five-year, $82 million contract with the Yankees last month, after the Braves made him an offer believed to be worth $80 million.
If the Braves were willing to throw that kind of money at a pitcher as injury-plagued and relatively unaccomplished as Burnett, then shouldn’t they make at least a four-year-plus-option offer at a similar average salary for Lowe?
The Mets have reportedly prepared a three-year, $36 mill offer for Lowe, but Boras indicated such a proposal was not made and that those figures were far below the market value for Lowe.
The Mets, Phillies and Red Sox might be the Braves’ biggest competitors for Lowe, and signing him would not only give the Braves a legitimate opening-day type of starter (as of now, Javier Vazquez would likely get that assignment), it would also prevent NL East rivals Philly and N.Y. from greatly strengthening their rotations.
If the Braves have any hope of competing in the East, they’ve got to improve a rotation that currently features Vazquez, Jair Jurrjens and a lot of question marks. The Braves seem privately optimistic that John Smoltz, who has looked great in his early mound sessions by all accounts, could be back by April or May, not May or June as has been speculated (this provided the Braves sign the bearded Braves icon, which I’m assuming they will do since to not sign John Smoltz would make seemingly no sense on any level.)
By the way, Lowe and Smoltz are two of the only three pitchers in history (along with Dennis Eckersley) who’ve notched both a 20-win and 40-save season.
Lowe has been one of baseball’s most reliable pitchers since moving to Boston’s starting rotation in 2002, after averaging nearly 70 relief appearances for the Red Sox from 1998 through 2001 including a 42-save season in 2000.
He’s recorded at least 200 innings in five of the past seven seasons, and in the other two he had 182-1/3 and 199-1/3 innings. Last season with the Dodgers, he was 14-11 with a 3.24 ERA in 211 innings.
And for a team that aims to return to the postseason, having Lowe in the fold would certainly be nice if they managed to get to the playoffs. Unlike Burnett and Sheets, who have no postseason experience to speak of, Lowe has plenty.
He’s 5-5 with a save and a 3.33 ERA in 21 postseason games (10 starts), including 4-1 with a 3.07 ERA in his past eight games.
For the World Series champion Red Sox in 2004, he went 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA in four playoff games (three starts), and got decision in the clinching wins in the division series, ALCS (at Yankee Stadium) and World Series.
Point is, he’s been big-game pitcher. Like I said, Sheets and Burnett have zero playoff experience, while Peavy is 0-2 with a 12.10 ERA in two postseaon starts, and Sabathia is 2-3 with a 7.92 ERA in five.
Would Lowe sign with the Braves? Hey, all I know is that he’s spoken very highly of Cox since they were on a Japanese all-star tour years ago, he’s close with Greg Maddux, who’s told him nothing but good things about Cox and his Atlanta experience, and he lives in Florida (Fort Myers, spring training home of the Red Sox).
Boras says that every client he’s had who played for Atlanta has one thing in common: All spoke glowingly of Cox afterwards. Whether Boras is trying to get the Red Sox or another team to give Lowe the deal he wants, I don’t know, but it sounds as if Lowe has definite interest in the Braves if they make a good offer.
We’ll see. But at this point, signing Lowe would sure do a lot to help folks forget what has been an undeniably rough offseason for the Braves. And that starting rotation and bullpen would welcome with open arms another 200-inning workhorse, one with a 126-107 career record (along with 85 saves) and 3.75 ERA, compared to Vazquez’s 127-129 record and 4.32 ERA.
That, or the Braves should see about restarting those Peavy talks now that the Padres have new ownership-in-waiting.
“(SOMETHING’S GOT TO) GIVE PRETTY SOON” by Drive-By Truckers
Way you look at me like that, something’s got to give pretty soon
Throw it on a camel’s back, something’s got to give pretty soon
Living hard to chase the dream, way beyond our ways and means
Yours don’t mean a goddamn thing.
That’s what you said, but, don’t believe it.
That shattered look upon your face, something’s got to give pretty soon.
Swallow, but can’t stand the taste, bark at the wind, chase the moon.
Living fast and drinking lots. List of things we haven’t got.
Tired of life with the have-nots
That’s what you said and I believe it.
Maybe what you need’s for someone to send you flowers
Someone strong and mean who can prove he has the power to
show you more than charm and take you on your way
to where you want to be at the end of the day
and it breaks my heart in two to know it ain’t meant to be
but, it ain’t me. It ain’t me.
And you say it’s these things I do, about me that’s attracted you
so if I started doing something else, what would we have left.
And you say you just want compromise, then act so different all the time.
These reasons why you said goodbye, just another way of telling lies.
Something’s got to give, got to give pretty soon
or else we’re gonna lose the very things that made it bloom
Sitting in silence in a cold and lonely room
while the world goes on around us
Something’s got to give, got to give pretty soon
or else we’re gonna hate each other
and that would be the saddest thing I ever seen.
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