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Thursday, January 29, 2009
Can Braves afford Abreu? Ohman? Glav?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
As the Braves’ voluntary early pitching camp gets underway, it’s time to assess the team’s remaining priority (besides signing Will Ohman, the blog hopes) as we taxi on the runway before spring training.
That remaining priority (well, in addition to Ohman and possibly trying to reach an agreement with Tom Glavine) would be the acquisition of a proven, run-producing outfielder. Or has anyone forgot that Braves outfielders hit a putrid 27 homers last season and didn’t do anything else well offensively as a group, either?
Or do some of you really believe the Braves will sign Andruw and call it a day? They might sign Andruw to a minimum-salary contract, especially if he’d take a minor league deal (but he and agent Scott Boras have both indicated he would not). But then he’d still have to win a job in camp, and there are some in the organization who doubt he could do that.
While the Braves say there’s no urgency to land another quality outfielder (one not named Andruw), and that they can afford to be patient and wait until spring training or even into the regular season before deciding whether to pull the trigger on a deal for an outfielder, we have reasons to believe they’d prefer to do it soon, before we head to Dark Star.
We think they’d like to make it one of these guys, maybe in this order of preference 1. Bobby Abreu (we’ll explain), 2. Xavier Nady or Nick Swisher (both Yankees, one or the other expected to be traded), and 4. (there can’t be a No. 3 if two guys are tied for No. 2) Adam Dunn, whose asking price (reportedly $14 mill per year) is still way, waaay above what the Braves have to spent.
Before we do a quick breakdown of that quartet, we should probably say that the Braves are only going to add one if it’s possible to sign him or make a trade that would fit in the approximate $5-9 million the team might have remaining to spend (the range is in part because we don’t know whether the Braves might go a few million over if it would really help them solidify the roster, and, frankly, because we don’t even know the exact payroll figure they’re aiming for to begin with).
If they can’t sign or trade for someone that fits the payroll, the Braves might decide to sign Glavine and possibly Ohman and then consider Brandon Jones or Josh Anderson for a platoon with Matt Diaz (Anderson hit .341 in 91 at-bats vs. right-handers last season, .200 in 45 at-bats vs. lefties).
That’s assuming that they have a CF they’re comfortable with other than Anderson, with Jordan Schafer and Gregor Blanco as primary options. (Hey, we’re throwing out a lot of ideas here, because manager Bobby Cox will surprise you sometimes with spring decisions — for instance, at this time a year ago, who thought Blanco would make the team and Anderson would spend most of the season at Triple-A?)
Hey, I didn’t say I endorse these options, but just that I think these are options they might consider.
Before we get into a breakdown of the four veteran outfielders listed above, let me add that the Braves would like to have enough money to sign Glavine and/or Lebowski (Ohman), too, but whether Glavine and the Braves can agree to a deal remains to be seen, and Ohman’s had a deal on the table from the Braves since November and hasn’t taken it yet.
Let’s assume they could get both of those guys for, say, $4.5 mill combined in 2009 (I know, big assumption). Would the Braves do that plus spend, say, $4.5 million or even $5 mill on an outfielder? Swisher is owed $5.3 mill in 2009, with two years left on his contract after that.
Nady just signed a one-year, $6.55 million deal, so if the Braves could trade for him, it’d presumably eat up most of what they have left and might not allow them to sign Glavine or Ohman. That’s on top of whatever pitcher or pitching prospect they’d have to trade to pry him from the Yankees. And remember, Nady is a Scott Boras client, thus almost certain to walk as a free agent next winter.
Well, I already gave some of the stuff I was going to put in the breakdown. Oh, well, here it is anyway, the pros and cons of those in that quartet. In reverse order.
Adam Dunn — Pros: Huge power, obviously; he’s hit 40 or more homers in five consecutive seasons, totaling 501 RBI in that stretch. Good plate discipline and patience, as evident by more than 100 walks ever season in that five-year stretch, and a .386 or higher OBP in four of those five seasons.
Cons: The 6-foot-6 man-mountain moves like a mountain in the outfield. In other words, not good defensively. At all. Also strikes out an awful lot (1,256 strikeouts in 3,871 career at-bats) and has a .225 career average in nearly 1,000 at-bats with runners in scoring position, albeit with a .416 OBP. Hit just .195 with 60 strikeouts in 154 at-bats vs. lefties in ‘08. And the biggest drawback: Salary. He apparently hasn’t received the memo about the awful economy diminishing the market price for corner outfielders. We’ll see if he has to re-assess in the next few weeks, but I’d be surprised if he got $10 million per season in a three- or four-year deal, much less the $14 million he reportedly wants.
Nick Swisher — Pros: He’s only 28, and the switch-hitter is under a reasonable contract for three more years ($5.3 million this season, $6.75 million in 2010, $9 million in 2011, and $10.25 million club option for 2012 with a $1 mill buyout). Before his career-worst season for the White Sox in 2008, he had a .361 career OBP and 80 homers in 1,617 at-bats in parts of four seasons with Oakland, and he’d totaled 60 doubles, 57 homers and 173 RBI during the 2006-07 seasons. Swisher has the versatility to play adequate defense at three OF positions and 1B, though he’s probably a bit of a stretch in CF.
Cons: That contract no longer looks quite as attractive as it did before the market price for OFs took a dive this winter. It’s $22 mill for the next three years with the buyout. And that 2008 season wasn’t just below-average, it was awful. He hit .219 with a .332 OBP in 153 games, but did have 24 homers. And the Braves would probably have to trade at least prospect or two to get him.
Xavier Nady — Pros: Strong defensive outfielder who’s coming off a career-best offensive season, including a .305 average with 25 homers, 37 doubles, 97 RBI, .357 OBP and whopping .510 slugging percentage in 555 at-bats for the Pirates and Yankees, including a .307 average with RISP and .333 with RISP and two outs. Nady hit .317 with an .886 OPS vs. lefties. He can play all three OF positions and 1B.
Cons: His $6.55 mill salary in 2009, his last season before free agency, would eat up most or all of the remaining funds the Braves have. Plus, they’d probably have to give up a pitcher or solid prospect to get him, and then would have him just one season before he’s up for free agency.
Bobby Abreu — Pros: If someone had told you five months ago that free agent Abreu might be available for $6 million or less in a one-year contract, you wouldn’t have believed them. I mean, he made nearly $58 million over the past four seasons. This is a guy who has a .300 career average with a .405 OBP and .498 slugging percentage, who as driven in 100 or more runs in six consecutive seasons and totaled at least 20 homers in eight of 10 seasons. Yes, he’s 35 and isn’t half the defensive outfielder he once was (actually, he’s just serviceable in the outfield these days), but he’s coming off a 2008 season in which he batted .296 with a .371 OBP, 39 doubles, 20 homers, 100 RBI and 100 runs scored. He’s got almost as many RBI (201) over the past two seasons as Dunn (205), and has more extra-base hits (123) in the past two seasons as Nady (107), with an .818 OPS that’s not too far off Nady’s .840 (Nady has 169 RBI in that two-year span). Oh, and just FYI, Abreu is old but has 47 steals in the past two seasons, which is 20 more than the combined totals of Swisher, Dunn, Nady and Jermaine Dye during that period (just thought we’d throw in Dye for fun).
Cons: He’s 35. He’s a RF who hasn’t played LF since 1997, but could presumably make the switch without difficulty, assuming the Braves are set on a slimmed-down Francoeur in RF).
OK, that’s it for now. Looking forward to pitching camp tomorrow. Expect to see phenom Tommy Hanson out there, but not certain who else will be stopping by during the camp, which runs through Feb. 6. It’s open to media from 9:30 a.m. to noon tomorrow and during Feb. 2-6, for those wondering when they might be able to get an autograph or two outside from pitchers arriving or leaving.
We’ll close with one of the many fine tunes from The Baseball Project CD that came out last year, “Volume One: Frozen Ropes and Dying Quails.” The Baseball Project is a quartet of alt-rockers who are all big baseball fans, including R.E.M.’s Peter Buck and the great Steve Wynn (who wrote most of the lyrics). This is the tale of their pal Jack McDowell, the former pitcher.
“THE YANKEE FLIPPER” by The Baseball Project
He’s a friend of the Smithereens, an old pal of Eddie Vedder.
For a good few years there weren’t any pitchers better.
He loved R.E.M. and he played a Rickenbacker guitar, but for a night on the town with Mike Mills you get hit pretty hard._
Mike and I met up with Dennis Diken and Black Jack somewhere.
As this was New York City, you may have heard they have a few bars there.
Jack loved the Replacements, and we drank enough that we became them.
Two guitars, bass and drums — yeah our line-up was the same then.
He was crowned the Yankee Flipper by the foul ball of fame.
He gave 50,000 fans the finger, but we’d like to share a little bit of the blame.
It was Spike and Mike and Black Jack and me.
I’m told Jack ended up on the cold tiles of the floor, with his mom who was visiting banging on the bathroom door.
Next time he took the mound was not a pretty sight, and I’ve always figured it had a lot to do with that night.
The photos filled every front page of the morning editions.
Now he’s the poster boy for a grand baseball tradition.
Templeton, Tejada, Billy Martin and Albert Belle — from old Hoss Radbourne all the way to David Wells.
