AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2009 > January > 20
Tuesday, January 20, 2009
Finally, some Brave optimism in ‘09
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Good morning on this historic Tuesday, when standing in that humongous crowd on the mall in Washington makes those temps in the 20s up in D.C. feel better than ours in the 20s (with strong winds) here in Atlanta. I ‘bout froze when I walked to the curb to get my garbage can while ago.
Anyway, just 25 days till pitchers & catchers report, and Braves I’ve talked to sure feel better about the team’s situation than they did a few weeks ago. Whether or not Frank Wren gets another bat before spring training, they’ll go to Dark Star believing they’ve got a chance to compete in the division.
Before they got Derek Lowe (and Kenshin Kawakami), the Braves couldn’t realistically expect to stay in the division race with the likes of the World Series champion Phillies and the Mets.
Now, they can. Provided their key pitchers and their two best hitters, Chipper and McCann, can stay healthy (OK, make that reasonably healthy for Chipper), I could see this team staying in contention deep into the second half of the season.
But several things are going to have to go their way for it to happen.
They’re going to need better production from a few others, including Jeff Francoeur and Casey Kotchman.
They’re going to need more consistency from Kelly Johnson and Yunel Escobar.
And they’re going to need a lot more offense from the outfield, whoever’s out there.
Which brings us to the biggest remaining needs. There are two, in my opinion, but I’m not sure that the Braves view re-signing Will Ohman or getting another equally proven veteran lefty in the ‘pen to be a crucial need. I sure do.
They do concur about the need for another bat, though the Braves indicate they could wait until spring training or even during the season to make that move. Could this be posturing? Perhaps.
By that I mean, the Braves may want other teams to believe they’re in no hurry now, that their beefed-up pitching staff puts them in position to wait and evaluate what they’ve got in their organization first, not capitulate and give the Yankees what they want now for Xavier Nady or Nick Swisher, or give another team what they want in a trade right now — the Orioles and 2B Brian Roberts, for instance.
Roberts was first mentioned Sunday as a Braves possibility by FoxSports’s Ken Rosenthal, who suggested they could move K.J. to left field in that scenario, making Roberts the leadoff man in a situation similar to the one envisioned when they were close to signing Rafael Furcal. (In the past two seasons, Roberts has 127 extra-base hits, 171 walks, 90 stolen bases, 210 runs and 114 RBI — not bad, eh?)
It’s a possibility, though at this point I’d say it’s not likely. But that could change at any time, with one phone call that changes the playing field and perhaps lowers the asking price. Keep in mind, the Braves had a deal for Roberts a couple of winters ago, before it was quashed by Orioles ownership. But back then he had a few seasons before free agency; now he’s got just one.
(Between you and me, heere’s something to keep in mind: Rosenthal was once an Orioles beat writer, including the year when Frank Wren was GM there. His sources with both teams are solid.)
But just to finish on the point: Maybe it’s posturing on the Braves part, and maybe they still are determined to add a bat now, before spring training. But I really do get a feeling that they’re willing to start the season, or at least go to spring training, with what they have and see what kind of progress a lot of their young players have made before deciding to give up significant prospects or adding another significant salary to the payroll.
Whether that’s a wise move is another story.
Speaking of Ohman: When I talked to him late last week, he was still hopeful of returning to the Braves, and said the initial offer they made him in November was still on the table. He reiterated that if all things are equal, or close, he wants to return to the Braves, and their recent moves have met with approval.
“I thought we were going to be extremely competitive,” he said. “With what’s happened in the past week, I think that’s even more likely.”
Why hasn’t he already signed, then? Because, folks, things have been moving so slowly for his segment of the free-agent market, and he was still getting offers trickling in from other teams, and didn’t want to sign before being reasonably sure of what might be offered.
This free-agent markets has been moving from position to position, or from player to player — a handful of teams suddenly make offers for this pitcher or that one, and then he takes an offer and signs. Then a bunch of teams make offers for another player, and he signs, etcetera.
My gut feeling is that Ohman comes back to the Braves, but that’s based only on the fact I know he wants to be here. He didn’t say this, but I get a feeling if they had increased his initial offer he would have signed by now. (And no, I don’t know what that offer was.)
Glavine toes slab again: Tom Glavine is supposed to throw off the mound again today, after making his return to the hill with a 15-pitch session Friday. We’ll let you know later today what he says about the latest session.
If Glavine can make it back, that sure would be a nice option for that fifth-starter role out of spring training, don’t you think? I’m guessing the contract would be for about a quarter of the $8 mill he made last season, and being in the fifth spot could give Glavine a chance to get extra rest and skip a turn from time to time, perhaps increasing the likelihood he could stay healthy.
Then again, the Braves have plenty of other options if he doesn’t make it back or if he doesn’t like the offer they make him. (By the way, can anyone really imagine him finishing his career with, say, the Nationals? Really?)
Andruw projections: While Scott Boras considers offers for Andruw Jones (hey, Boras said eight teams called Friday about his client) and the Braves consider whether they really even want him, I’ll repost the Bill James Handbook projection for that I mentioned this weekend.
In the new Handbook, James projects a .233/.328/.445 season with 16 homers and 50 RBI in 301 at-bats for Jones, though you’ve got to wonder exactly how one would come to any sort of projection for a hitter with such a seemingly unprecedented recent history as Andruw’s.
By that, I mean a guy who’s only 31 and totaled 92 homers and 257 RBI during the 2005-2006 seasons, but who fell off the face of the earth (figuratively speaking, of course) since then.
We’re talking .222/.311/.413 in 2007 with the Braves, and .158/.256/.249 with just three homers and 209 at-bats for the Dodgers in 2008.
To James’ credit, he cites his completely off-the-mark projection for Jones in last year’s handbook as an example in the good-and-bad projections section of the new book. A year ago, James and his staff projected Jones would hit .253 with 34 homers and 103 RBI for the Dodgers in 2008.
Yikes.
“Man, that has to be the worst projection we ever published,” James writes in the new book. “From now on, we will refer to the inexplicable loss of all ability in mid-career as ‘pulling an Andruw on us.’ He was one of my favorite players, too.”
A lot of people on the Braves/MIB blog probably know how you feel, Bill.
Rating young talent: Also in the new James Handbook, he rates the young talent for each organization. The Braves are ninth, just behind Colorado and ahead of Boston. He bases his ratings only on proven young players who are on major league rosters, not on prospects or other unproven players.
“The Braves ranked 16th in our survey last year, but shot up the list due to the solid year by McCann and the emergence of Jurrjens (34th on our list), Yunel Escobar (103rd) and others (Gregor Blanco, Jorge Campillo, Martin Prado, Jo-Jo reyes, Josh Anderson). Francoeur and Kelly Johnson are still young players. They just need for some of these guys to pump up the volume.”
(Blogmeister note: Campillo is a “young” player? He was a 29-year-old rookie. By the way, someone on the blog mentioned Blanco being out of minor-league options; he’s not.)
Anyway, James rates Minnesota first for young talent, followed by Arizona, Tampa Bay, Florida, Kansas City, Milwaukee and Cleveland in the seventh spot.
In his list of 25 individual young players, he rates Prince Fielder first, followed by Hanley Ramirez, Tim Lincecum, blog favorite David Wright and Ryan Braun. McCann is ranked 22nd, the only Brave in the top 25.
Best movies of the year: During the long weekend I got to see Mickey Rourke’s tour-de-force performance in The Wrestler and Kate Winslet and Leo DiCaprio’s fine work in a wrenching, thought-provoking Revolutionary Road. Now I’m ready to name my best of 2008. (Though I haven’t seen Frost/Nixon, I think I’ve seen all the other Oscar favorites.)
Best picture: Slumdog Millionaire; 2. The Reader; 3. The Dark Knight; 4. Gran Torino; 5. Revolutionary Road; 6. The Wrestler; 7. Milk; 8. Redbelt.
Best actor: Rourke (ahead of Sean Penn and Clint Eastwood, who were good enough to win most years).
Best actress: Winslet in either The Reader or Revolutionary Road. She had the kind of year that Philip Seymour-Hoffman had in 2007, when he was in three great movies (The Savages, Charlie Wilson’s War and Before the Devil Knows You’re Dead.)
Speaking of best-of lists: Upon further review and/or late purchases, there were four other CDs that should’ve made my 2008 top 50: Carrie Rodriguez “She Ain’t Me”, Delta Spirit “Ode To Sunshine,” Martha Wainwright “I Know You’re Married But…” and The Walkmen “You & Me.” And if I’d included live albums, The Clash “Live at Shea Stadium” and Chuck Brodsky “Two Sets” would have been on the list.
A tune to finish: This goes out to my man Pete Van Wieren, who’s a big W. Ward fan (I’m not kidding). Pete, we’re really gonna miss you down at Dark Star. And all season long.
”CHINESE TRANSLATION” by M. Ward
I sailed a wild, wild sea
Climbed up a tall, tall mountain
I met a old, old man
Beneath a weeping willow tree
He said now if you got some questions
Go and lay them at my feet_But my time here is brief
So you’ll have to pick just three
And I said
What do you do with the pieces of a broken heart
And how can a man like me remain in the light
And if life is really as short as they say
Then why is the night so long
And then the sun went down
And he sang for me this song
See I once was a young fool like you
Afraid to do the things
That I knew I had to do
So I played an escapade just like you
I played an escapade just like you
I sailed a wild, wild sea
Climbed up a tall, tall mountain
I met an old, old man
He sat beneath a sapling tree
He said now if you got some questions
Go and lay them at my feet
But my time here is brief
So you’ll have to pick just three
And I said
What do you do with the pieces of a broken heart
And how can a man like me remain in the light
And if life is really as short as they say
Then why is the night so long
And then the sun went down
And he played for me this song
