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Sunday, January 11, 2009
T. Hanson, D. Lowe … continued
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Blogmeister note: Just reposting this blog until I can get a new one up, since other one crashed at around 1,000 posts, as usual. Carry on….
In the aftermath of Thursday’s John Smoltz terminus in Terminus (that was the original name of Atlanta), as Smoltz stories were splashed all over the newspaper waiting at the end of my driveway, it was interesting to see the cover of the Baseball America issue waiting in my mailbox.
The cover boy is none other than Tommy Hanson, possibly the most talented pitching prospect to come through the Braves system since … well, a long time.
Hanson is the top-rated Braves prospect by BA, which has its top 10 prospects list for every National League East team in this new issue. The cover reads, “Righthander Tommy Hanson dominates on his way to Atlanta and ascends to the top of the Braves’ prospect list.”
Most of you have already seen the list, but for those who haven’t: 1. Hanson, 2. OF Jason Heyward, 3. OF Jordan Schafer, 4. OF Gorkys Hernandez, 5. 1B Freddie Freeman, 6. LHP Cole Rohrbough, 7. LHP Jeff Locke, 8. RHP Julio Teheran, 9. RHP Kris Medlen, 10. RHP Craig Kimbrel.
I wouldn’t disagree with that list, from what I’ve seen with my own eyes and heard from scouts and team officials, though I do think Hanson and Heyward are probably interchangeable in the top two spots, and Schafer and Hernandez could probably go in either order in the next two.
Which brings us to this year’s starting rotation, which I think will include Hanson at some point, probably sooner than later (i.e., I think he’ll be up by early summer).
But that’s not what most of you want to know right now. Right now, you want to know who’s going to hold down the No. 1 spot, since an opening-day assignment for Javier Vazquez does not exactly get the pulses jumping across Braves Nation. Not that he’s bad, he’s just not a No. 1, not your classic opening-day starter.
Derek Lowe, he’d be a signigicant upgrade in that role, and provide the Braves a 200-inning veteran who could be penciled in for 15 or more wins. Check out what the sinkerballer did last year in L.A., with that slipshod infield defense _ 14-11 with a 3.24 ERA in 211 innings, including 6-1 with a 1.27 ERA in his last 10 starts.
The Braves’ infield defense should rank among the NL’s top third, at least, with SS Yunel Escobar and Gold Glove-caliber 1B Casey Kotchman. Chipper’s still a solid defensive player, and baseball people will tell you Kelly Johnson isn’t the liability some here make him out to be.
Now, whether the Braves could provide enough run support to boost Lowe’s win totals, that’s another story.
But anyway, Lowe and his agent, Scott Boras, visited for about five hours — yes, five hours — on Thursday with Braves staff and officials at Turner Field, a group that included GM Frank Wren, manager Bobby Cox, pitching coach Roger McDowell and CEO Terry McGuirk. Lowe was accompanied by Boras and one of the powerful agent’s top assistants.
From all accounts, everyone came out of the marathon session feeling good about the potential match of Lowe and the Braves, though until the Braves made their offer, which was expected today, it probably won’t be clear just how good a chance they have of landing the best available unsigned free agent.
The Braves pulled out the stops, from what I hear, preparing a video presentation for Lowe and Atlanta-would-love-to-have-you messages from several country music stars (he’s a big country fan) including Alan Jackson.
McDowell talked to him at length, as did Cox, who’s known Lowe since they were on a touring all-star team that went to Japan eight years ago. The Braves emphasized their strengths, including the pitching depth in their minor league organization, and also noted their weaknesses and how Lowe could help shore up a big one.
It’s almost certainly going to take a four-year deal, perhaps with a vesting fifth-year option, for the Braves to get the 35-year-old Lowe, who is also being pursued by the Mets and Phillies, with at least a couple of other teams expected to make bids.
The Mets already had floated a three-year, $36 mill offer for the right-hander, but Boras last week indicated that offer was never formally presented and that GM Omar Minaya knew it wouldn’t be enough for Lowe.
The Braves were expected to make an offer today, but they’re in lockdown mode right now regarding comments about potential targets, after so many pursuits this winter already blew up in their faces. They want Lowe, and badly. The Braves know they probably need him and another, lesser piece or two added to their current roster to have any shot of competing for a playoff spot out of a tough division.
Would four years at $15 mill per year get it done? Not sure. But it just might, considering no other offers have surfaced for Lowe. But if the Braves wait around for long and allow, say, the Chicago Cubs to get involved after their ownership situation is resolved, then the price could certainly rise.
You might have heard, Boras is pretty good and drumming up higher bids than anyone thought possible for his clients, but I’ve got to think that even he’d be hard-pressed to get much more than the above figures for Lowe in this economy.
Lowe’s a Fort Myers, Fla., resident, primarily because that’s where his ex-wife lives with their kids. He’s recently remarried, to a former Los Angeles television-news personality, and whether or not she’d be big on Atlanta, or whether that’s a big factor, is unclear. The glamour of New York and all that, you know.
Since he’s a Boras client, this could drag out. Then again, it’s already the second week of January, and even a Boras client has got to start getting a little itchy at this point, wanting to know where he’s going to be moving in a few months and where he’ll be going to spring training next month.
Ironically, ot coincidentally, or whatever, Lowe and Smoltz are two of only three pitchers in history to have a 20-win season and a 40-save season (Dennis Eckersley’s the other), and Smoltz’s signing with Boston might have improrved the chances that Lowe ends up in Atlanta.
Because not only are the Red Sox seemingly less likely to get in the Lowe bidding now, but the Braves are also probably a little more desperate than they were a couple of days ago, when they’d already scheduled the Lowe visit and had no idea it would come on the day that Smoltz’s momentous decision would be the talk of Atlanta.
Stay tuned. The Lowe matter could be interesting in the coming days.
Kawakami update: Heard today (Saturday) from someone who would know that the Braves have reached an agreement with the the 33-year-old former winner of the Japanese equivelent of the Cy Young Award, and it looks like a deal could be announced in the next few days provided he passes a physical Monday.
Other teams that were considered to be among four finalists for Kenshin Kawakami are now saying they’ve been led to believe he’s going to the Braves. And to think, less than two weeks ago Japanese papers were reporting that Kawakami had narrowed his list to three finalists and that the Braves weren’t one of them.
Kawakami, a wily right-hander, is projected as a solid middle-rotation starter in the majors at this stage of his career.
He isn’t likely to be an innings-eater at this stage of his career. Although Kawakami pitched a career-high 215 innings in 2006, he totaled 167-1/3 innings in 2007 and only 117-1/3 in 2008, when he missed time with a back strain and reportedly had shoulder soreness.
He was part of a six-man this past season in Japan, pitching basically once a week. (Conditioning for pitchers in Japan hasn’t been considered as crucial as it is in the States. Japanese teams sometimes use six-man rotations, and most Japanese pitchers make fewer than 30 starts.)
Can he help the Braves? Unquestionably. If they could land Lowe or trade for something at least close to a top-of-the-rotation starter, the addition of Kawakami to a rotation that already includes Jair Jurrejens and Javier Vazquez, with several others competing for a fifth spot and Tommy Hanson waiting in the wings … well, things could get a lot more optimistic in a hurry.
But until they also land a Lowe or someone else of a top-half-of-rotation quality, the Braves still have a major question mark in that rotation, not to mention the glaring need for another outfield bat.
No updates on that — I mentioned the lockdown mode at Braves offices — but they’re still exploring and talking about free agents and trade targets, including bigger names that suddenly seem more affordable, such as Adam Dunn.
They like Xavier Nady, and the Yankees want to trade Nady instead of Nick Swisher, but Boras represents Nady and teams know that means he’ll go to free agency at the end of the 2009 season when his contract’s up. Can’t see the Braves, or any team, giving up significant talent to get Nady in a one-year rental, but if than Yankees would take less than expected in return, it’s possible.
The Yankees’ Nick Swisher isn’t as good as Nady but might be more attractive to many teams (not necessarily the Braves) because he’d be under a team’s control for three or four more years. But that’s the same reason the Yankees seem less likely to trade him.
Wren speaks: In case you guys missed it last night, I posted some comments from Wren on the Smoltz matter after the GM called me back at about 8 p.m.
This is what he said:
“We appreciate all John’s done for us over the years. We’ve been very consistent since the end of the season — I stated that our mission, our goal, was to rebuid our pitching staff, and once we had a good understanding and knowledge of how far the rehab had gone with John and Tommy, we would make them an offer. We followed up with that and made an offer prior to Christmas to John.”
On the Braves offering less guaranteed money than Red Sox:
“I just think there’s still a lot of information we don’t have, from standpoint that John himself will tell you he’snot going to be able to pitch until June. That’s still five or six months of rehab. We just don’t know if he’ll be able to pitch again. We hoped he could. Our offer was indicative of that, that unknown.”
“We’ve always had the same feeling — if John could pitch, we wanted him back. And I think our offer was such, if John could pitch … it was a similar incentive-based offer that if he could pitch he would make a similar amount. Probably the biggest difference was if he can’t pitch, he would make more in Boston. If he can pitch he’d make the same in both places. And a lot of that is based on when he can pitch and how much of the season is lost.”
On whether the Red Sox could afford to guarantee more, etc:
“Yes, but it was never that we didn’t want John back or a lack of respect for John. Our priority was to have a pitching staff that would allow us to go into the season not concerned about rehabs and injuries and the things that set us back in 2008. And that still stands.”
On how tough this kind of thing is for a GM:
“No question. Anybody that sits in this chair will tell you the most difficult decision you make are with aging stars, plain and simple. Because you respect them, you want them to be a part of your organization forever. But the reality is, they’re getting older and they’re not the same.”
”BIG IRON” by Marty Robbins
To the town of Agua Fria rode a stranger one fine day
Hardly spoke to folks around him didn’t have too much to say
No one dared to ask his business no one dared to make a slip
for the stranger there among them had a big iron on his hip
Big iron on his hip
It was early in the morning when he rode into the town
He came riding from the south side slowly lookin’ all around
He’s an outlaw loose and running came the whisper from each lip
And he’s here to do some business with the big iron on his hip
big iron on his hip
In this town there lived an outlaw by the name of Texas Red
Many men had tried to take him and that many men were dead
He was vicious and a killer though a youth of twenty four
And the notches on his pistol numbered one an nineteen more
One and nineteen more
Now the stranger started talking made it plain to folks around
Was an Arizona ranger wouldn’t be too long in town
He came here to take an outlaw back alive or maybe dead
And he said it didn’t matter he was after Texas Red
After Texas Red
Wasn’t long before the story was relayed to Texas Red
But the outlaw didn’t worry men that tried before were dead
Twenty men had tried to take him twenty men had made a slip
Twenty one would be the ranger with the big iron on his hip
Big iron on his hip
The morning passed so quickly it was time for them to meet
It was twenty past eleven when they walked out in the street
Folks were watching from the windows every-body held their breath
They knew this handsome ranger was about to meet his death
About to meet his death
There was forty feet between them when they stopped to make their play
And the swiftness of the ranger is still talked about today
Texas Red had not cleared leather fore a bullet fairly ripped
And the ranger’s aim was deadly with the big iron on his hip
Big iron on his hip
It was over in a moment and the folks had gathered round
There before them lay the body of the outlaw on the ground
Oh he might have went on living but he made one fatal slip
When he tried to match the ranger with the big iron on his hip
Big iron on his hip
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