AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2009 > January > 04
Sunday, January 4, 2009
Lowe on hill, Andruw in outfield?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Well, hello again, denizens, it’s good to be back from Colorado’s perfectly powdery slopes — with femurs, wrists and my back intact and spirits rejuvenated by a snowboarding vacation.
After the business of baseball slowed to a crawl through the holidays, things figure to pick up substantially this week for many teams including the Braves. What, you thought Frank Wren and staff were done pursuing an ace and an outfielder?
No. What they’ve got right now is not exactly a likely playoff contender, after all.
So, how does Derek Lowe sound as an opening day starter? Could happen.
First, before we go any further, we have to discuss Andruw Jones and the fact that, according to agent Scott Boras, the fallen former Braves star will be a free agent Jan. 15 (assuming he’s not traded before then, probably a safe assumption given that no team seems ready to pay him anywhere near a $5 mill salary, much less give up any talent as part of a trade).
Boras told me today (Sunday) that he worked out this new deal with the Dodgers that would relieve them of most of Jones’ salary commitment this season, helping both parties (Dodgers can spend on other needs, and Jones can try to restart his career elsewhere).
The revised deal will defer much of the $21.1 mill that Jones is still owed from the two-year, $32.2 mill deal he signed with the Dodgers (yes, he’s still owed two-thirds of the total, including a big signing bonus).
The reworked deal reportedly drops Andruw’s salary from the originally scheduled $15 mill to about $5 mill this year, but that’s still more than teams are ready to spend for a player who’s had the worst offensive numbers of any lineup regular in baseball since the second half of the 2006 season.
Andruw’s first (and only) season with the Dodgers was an unmitigated disaster. No, it really was, relatively speaking, of course.
He hit .158 with three homers, 33 hits and 76 strikeouts in 209 at-bats, had midseason knee surgery for cartilage damage, was booed from opening day by Dodger Stadium fans, and was left off the team’s postseason roster.
Over the past two seasons, he’s hit .205 with 25 homers, 108 RBIs and a .297 OBP and .369 slugging percentage in 229 games, with 214 strikeouts and 97 walks in 781 at-bats.
And since his career began to careen off the tracks shortly after the 2006 All-Star break — since July 21, 2006, to be exact — Andruw has done this in 291 games played: .209 average (208-for-993), 46 doubles, 46 homers, 149 RBI, .312 OBP, .401 slugging, 262 strikeouts, 137 walks, four stolen bases.
Let’s repeat that: 291 games, .209 average, .312 OBP, .401 slugging.
Unless the Dodgers find a team to make a trade for Andruw and take on even a portion of the salary he would make under his reworked contract, he’s going to become a free agent Jan. 15, and the Dodgers will pay him the entire amount he’s owed.
Jones would be like any other free agent, able to sign with any team for any amount.
My question for Braves fans is this: Should the Braves consider making him a minimal one-year offer, say $1 mill with incentives? They do, after all, need a right-handed hitting outfielder, and they’d prefer to keep Jordan Schafer in the minors a little longer since he’s only got a little over a half-season of experience above A-ball and none in Triple-A.
If it involved anything more than a minimal offer, I’d suggest that signing Jones would not be a bad idea. (Can’t believe I’m actually saying that, but stay with me here.) Certainly, the Braves shouldn’t give up anything of value in a trade for him. But a minimal free-agent offer could make some sense, long as it wouldn’t force the Braves to waive someone off the 40-man roster. If they could sign Jones to a minor-league contract with assurances he’d be added to the major league roster if he plays well this spring, then yes, I’d do that for sure.
But I don’t know if Jones would accept such a deal. Then again, I also don’t know if he’ll have much choice, particularly if he wants badly to get back to the Braves, which I know he does. Barring some unexpected substantially larger offer from another team, I’ve got to think Jones would take just about any offer from the Braves in order to come home (he still has his home in the north Atlanta ‘burbs) and try to restart his career and try to help Bobby Cox get back to the postseason.
Boras tells me that Andruw’s down to 230 pounds, is playing winter ball again in the Dominican, and fully understands that he’s on the edge of his career, that he must prove himself again and show that he’s not washed up at 31 (32 in April).
Is it worth a gamble? If the gamble’s minimal, and considering that the Braves’ current options (other than the very talented Schafer) are Josh Anderson and Gregor Blanco, then yes, I’d have to say it’s probably worth bringing Jones to spring training to see just how motivated he is to prove he’s not finished and to show the Braves how grateful he is for them taking a chance on him and bringing him home.
What’s the worst that could happen? He’d stink in spring training and the Braves could, once and for all, wash their hands of him. Fans would know they gave him another shot and it didn’t work out.
But if, on the chance that he’s got something left, that he isn’t completely hapless in the face of low-and-away breaking balls and his knee isn’t bad and he isn’t going to collapse on his back leg on most swings, well, hey, then maybe he could be something resembling the 10-time Gold Glove winner he was with the Braves, a guy who piled up 92 homers and 257 RBI during the 2005-06 seasons (was it really only that long ago?)
Hey, don’t get your hopes up. I wouldn’t count on Jones being more than a shell of what he once was. But it’s probably worth a shot.
We’ll see. For now, I don’t know how interested the Braves might be (GM Frank Wren couldn’t comment on the subject today, citing the fact that Jones is still a member of another team).
Now, about Lowe…. If there’s any possible positive spin that can be applied to the Braves’ much-chronicled swings and misses so far this winter, it’s that they still have plenty of money to spend and the price of pitchers and corner outfielders seems to be in steep decline.
If they could get Bobby Abreu or Pat Burrell for a one-year deal at under $10 million, then I’m guessing the Braves will make a bid for one of them.
Their lack of interest in those two and others earlier this winter was in large part due to the long-term commitment that it seemed most free-agent outfielders would get, and the fact the Braves didn’t want to be tied up with one of those guys for three years at more than $10 mill annually when they have several outfield prospects getting closer to the majors.
And then there’s Lowe, unquestionably the best pitcher still available on the market, given that Ben Sheets reportedly has both elbow and shoulder issues that have teams wary of signing the Milwaukee free agent.
Lowe is a proven workhorse and big-game pitcher who’s one drawback is age (well, that and the fact he’s represented by Boras, who you might know as someone who drives a hard bargain). Lowe will be 36 in June.
Otherwise, his resume simply blows away that of, say, A.J. Burnett, who is 4-1/2 years younger but has battled elbow, shoulder and other injuries throughout his career and has a total of three 200-inning seasons and one season with more than 12 wins.
Burnett got a five-year, $82 million contract with the Yankees last month, after the Braves made him an offer believed to be worth $80 million.
If the Braves were willing to throw that kind of money at a pitcher as injury-plagued and relatively unaccomplished as Burnett, then shouldn’t they make at least a four-year-plus-option offer at a similar average salary for Lowe?
The Mets have reportedly prepared a three-year, $36 mill offer for Lowe, but Boras indicated such a proposal was not made and that those figures were far below the market value for Lowe.
The Mets, Phillies and Red Sox might be the Braves’ biggest competitors for Lowe, and signing him would not only give the Braves a legitimate opening-day type of starter (as of now, Javier Vazquez would likely get that assignment), it would also prevent NL East rivals Philly and N.Y. from greatly strengthening their rotations.
If the Braves have any hope of competing in the East, they’ve got to improve a rotation that currently features Vazquez, Jair Jurrjens and a lot of question marks. The Braves seem privately optimistic that John Smoltz, who has looked great in his early mound sessions by all accounts, could be back by April or May, not May or June as has been speculated (this provided the Braves sign the bearded Braves icon, which I’m assuming they will do since to not sign John Smoltz would make seemingly no sense on any level.)
By the way, Lowe and Smoltz are two of the only three pitchers in history (along with Dennis Eckersley) who’ve notched both a 20-win and 40-save season.
Lowe has been one of baseball’s most reliable pitchers since moving to Boston’s starting rotation in 2002, after averaging nearly 70 relief appearances for the Red Sox from 1998 through 2001 including a 42-save season in 2000.
He’s recorded at least 200 innings in five of the past seven seasons, and in the other two he had 182-1/3 and 199-1/3 innings. Last season with the Dodgers, he was 14-11 with a 3.24 ERA in 211 innings.
And for a team that aims to return to the postseason, having Lowe in the fold would certainly be nice if they managed to get to the playoffs. Unlike Burnett and Sheets, who have no postseason experience to speak of, Lowe has plenty.
He’s 5-5 with a save and a 3.33 ERA in 21 postseason games (10 starts), including 4-1 with a 3.07 ERA in his past eight games.
For the World Series champion Red Sox in 2004, he went 3-0 with a 1.86 ERA in four playoff games (three starts), and got decision in the clinching wins in the division series, ALCS (at Yankee Stadium) and World Series.
Point is, he’s been big-game pitcher. Like I said, Sheets and Burnett have zero playoff experience, while Peavy is 0-2 with a 12.10 ERA in two postseaon starts, and Sabathia is 2-3 with a 7.92 ERA in five.
Would Lowe sign with the Braves? Hey, all I know is that he’s spoken very highly of Cox since they were on a Japanese all-star tour years ago, he’s close with Greg Maddux, who’s told him nothing but good things about Cox and his Atlanta experience, and he lives in Florida (Fort Myers, spring training home of the Red Sox).
Boras says that every client he’s had who played for Atlanta has one thing in common: All spoke glowingly of Cox afterwards. Whether Boras is trying to get the Red Sox or another team to give Lowe the deal he wants, I don’t know, but it sounds as if Lowe has definite interest in the Braves if they make a good offer.
We’ll see. But at this point, signing Lowe would sure do a lot to help folks forget what has been an undeniably rough offseason for the Braves. And that starting rotation and bullpen would welcome with open arms another 200-inning workhorse, one with a 126-107 career record (along with 85 saves) and 3.75 ERA, compared to Vazquez’s 127-129 record and 4.32 ERA.
That, or the Braves should see about restarting those Peavy talks now that the Padres have new ownership-in-waiting.
“(SOMETHING’S GOT TO) GIVE PRETTY SOON” by Drive-By Truckers
Way you look at me like that, something’s got to give pretty soon
Throw it on a camel’s back, something’s got to give pretty soon
Living hard to chase the dream, way beyond our ways and means
Yours don’t mean a goddamn thing.
That’s what you said, but, don’t believe it.
That shattered look upon your face, something’s got to give pretty soon.
Swallow, but can’t stand the taste, bark at the wind, chase the moon.
Living fast and drinking lots. List of things we haven’t got.
Tired of life with the have-nots
That’s what you said and I believe it.
Maybe what you need’s for someone to send you flowers
Someone strong and mean who can prove he has the power to
show you more than charm and take you on your way
to where you want to be at the end of the day
and it breaks my heart in two to know it ain’t meant to be
but, it ain’t me. It ain’t me.
And you say it’s these things I do, about me that’s attracted you
so if I started doing something else, what would we have left.
And you say you just want compromise, then act so different all the time.
These reasons why you said goodbye, just another way of telling lies.
Something’s got to give, got to give pretty soon
or else we’re gonna lose the very things that made it bloom
Sitting in silence in a cold and lonely room
while the world goes on around us
Something’s got to give, got to give pretty soon
or else we’re gonna hate each other
and that would be the saddest thing I ever seen.
