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December 2008
Let’s reflect on recent Braves
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Frisco, Colo. _ Mid-vacation greetings from 9,097 feet up in the Rockies, where the snow is deep, the slopes terrific and the sun was bright in a cloudless sky this afternoon at Breckenridge.
The wrists and the rest of my body have survived several days of snowboarding, first at Steamboat Springs (unbelievable powder after 22 inches of snow fell in 24 hours) and then at A-Basin, with our last day on the board set for tomorrow at Copper Mountain.
The only casualty so far was the poor woman I barreled over while out of control on a blue-black run on our first day at Steamboat, (she spoke Spanish, no English, but the universal language of moaning as she pointed to her left leg was enough for us to summon the ski patrol to help her out.)
Anyway, I swore I wouldn’t file anything while on vacation this time, but I just couldn’t bear to see the blog dormant any longer. So I decided to post a quickie that I think might draw an opinion or two from the majority of you out there.
(Oh, before I forget, if you’re ever out this way and you’re a pancake nut like me, you can’t do any better than Winona’s in Steamboat Springs or Log Cabin in Frisco, both restaurants located on the little main streets in those respective towns. The cinnamon rolls at Winona’s are also ridiculously ginormous and delicious.)
(Wait, gotta make one other restaurant recommendation — Mazzola’s Majestic Italian Diner in Steamboat. You don’t expect to find such a great Italian joint in the middle of a relatively isolated Colorado town known for ski slopes and ranches.)
(Then there’s the hot springs at Strawberry Park, where you can step from a 108-degree natural pool into the 45-degree stream that runs alongside it. Yowza… But that’s another story. By the way, triple-paragraph parenthesis, a new record.)
OK, so back to the blog, which we’re going to write while we listen to some old Neil Young with a fire blazing here in the condo. (Neil, Bon Iver, James McMurtry and Uncle Tupelo have provided much of our soundtrack out here. Some stuff just sounds particularly good in the mountains, as does watching “The Shining” on DVD last night, with “Fargo” on tap for tonight.)
I started covering the Braves in 2002, and it’s not been the best seven-year period in recent Braves history, to say the least. They lost in the first round of the playoffs each of the first four seasons I covered them, and they haven’t participated in the postseason since.
But despite the relatively mediocre overall results in that span, we’ve seen some pretty remarkable performances, for and against the Braves. Randy Johnson’s perfect game at Turner Field, Chipper Jones’ 400th homer and, of course, John Smoltz’s 3,000th strikeout and 200th win come to mind.
There were plenty of others, both individual-game performances and seasonal work.
There was Chipper’s three-homer game at RFK Stadium in 2006, Willie Harris’ 6-for-6, two-triple, six-RBI game against the Cardinals in 2007, Arizona pitcher Micah Owings’ 4-for-5, two-homer, six-RBI game at Turner Field, and this past season there was Mark Kotsay’s cycle against the Cubs (only the fifth Brave to hit for the cycle) and Jeff Francoeur’s two-homer, seven-RBI game at the new D.C. ballpark (before his season turned sour).
There were a bunch of dominant pitching performances by Smoltz and Tim Hudson in recent years, Smoltz doing it both as a closer and starter. For seasonal superlatives, there was Smoltz’s 55 saves in 2003, and his 211 strikeouts in 232 innings in 2006.
Among hitters, there was Andruw Jones’ 51-homer, 128-RBI season in 2005, when he was MVP runner-up, and his 41-homer, 129-RBI season in 2006. And who can forget Javy Lopez’s 2003 season, in which the catcher hit .328 43 homers and 109 RBI with a 1.065 OPS, all while skipping batting practice for most of the season because one day during an early slump he hit some soft-tossed baseballs in the indoor batting cage and had a huge day, so he decided to keep that routine.
There was Chipper’s batting title (.364, with a .470 OBP) at age 36 in 2008, following a 2007 season when he hit .337 with 42 doubles, 29 homers, 102 RBI and a .425 OBP to finish sixth in the MVP voting.
We can’t forget Francoeur’s auspicious 2005 arrival, when he hit .300 with 20 doubles, 14 homers, 45 homers (and only 11 walks) in 70 games and made the cover of Sports Illustrated (“The Natural”).
And let’s not overlook the general excellence of young Brian McCann, who is easy to take for granted instead of being appreciated as one of the best hitting catchers to come along in at least a couple of generations.
McCann has a .297 career average and .859 OPS, along with two Silver Slugger awards and three All-Star recognition in all three full seasons in the bigs. He has 80 doubles in the past two seasons, and he’s averaged nearly 22 homers and more than 90 RBI in his three full seasons. Heap is very good, folks.
OK, that’s just the stuff I can think of off the top of my head, since I didn’t bring a media guide or anything else with me on vacation (stats are available at a million places online, of course.)
I know I’ve missed some individual and team moments, some great performances, etc. So let’s hear from you folks which ones stand out for you, which were your favorites, which ones you think were underappreciated or overrated or whatever, be they from the ones I mentioned or others.
Yes, I know you’re all waiting for the Braves to make a move or two to bolster this team for 2009, but can’t tell you that I’m hearing anything right now, simply because I’ve been out of the loop for a week now and not making any calls. Things have been awful slow for most teams this past week or so anyway.
But since I’m off through Jan. 3, there should be something significant for Carroll to cover before then. Something big usually happens when she’s got the team, but it’s been a while and she’s overdue for a Braves headline-making story.
In the meantime, let’s hear your thoughts on what’s stood out these past five or six years. Like I said, as bad as it’s been at times, there have certainly been some memorable performances, too.
Oh, and everybody have a safe and happy New Year. Talk to ya soon.
“PARIS” by James McMurtry
When you land in Paris and they wave you right through
Though your passport picture, doesn’t look much like you
They don’t look at your luggage, they don’t look at your face
‘Cause you pose no danger and you’re such a disgrace
You go out walking down the Champs D’Elysees
And your spirits are sinking, it can happen that way
When you do your best Bogart and they don’t seem to care
They walk right down the sidewalk like you ain’t even there
Lookin’ in the wrong direction
Seein’ it from the inside out
The way you couldn’t wait for Christmas
The way you used to twist and shout
It must be the jet lag, you hope it’ll pass
You check your reflection in the store front glass
Kinda gray at the temples, kinda goes with the hat
Kinda round in the middle but it ain’t even that
It’s nothing you can see, it’s nothing you can smell
But you pose no danger and man they can tell
Lookin’ in the wrong direction
Seein’ it from the inside out
The way you couldn’t wait for Christmas
The way you used to twist and shout
You see it in the mirror in the morning
You feel it in the middle of the night
Sleeping with your eyes wide open
Waking with the shades drawn tight
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Braves’ stockings lacking; our top CDs of 2008
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Braves general manager Frank Wren is hitting the Colorado slopes with his family this week, but I think it’s probably safe to assume his crackberry will be on his person at all times, just in case.
He would’ve preferred to have most of the offseason heavy lifting done by now, but Wren did warn us early on he might not be able to get the outfield bat he sought until spring training or even during the season.
But a top starting pitcher and a run-producing outfielder? The Braves didn’t anticipate going to the new year with both those priority needs unresolved.
There’s no reason to sugarcoat it: This has been a difficult, troublesome offseason for the Braves, whose trade talks for Jake Peavy stalled, whose big offer to A.J. Burnett fell short, and whose nearly finalized deal for leadoff man Rafael Furcal fell apart after the Braves said Furcal and his agent reneged on a “gentleman’s agreement” (the agent says there was no agreement, despite the Braves saying they faxed, at the agent’s request, a “term sheet” — considered the final step in a deal, after all terms have been negotiated).
Anyway, that’s done and there’s nothing the Braves can do about it. There’s still time for the Braves to make a couple of moves and fill their needs. No, there really is.
But the Furcal thing was a figurative punch to the gut for the Braves. Furcal re-signed with the L.A. Dodgers, and it became quite apparent that was where he wanted to be all along, despite whatever might have been said about him wanting to come back to play again for Atlanta and Bobby Cox.
The reason that deal falling through was so difficult to take for the Braves was not just because they thought they had their leadoff inconsistency erased with the return of one of the majors’ best top-of-the-order hitters, but also because the addition of Furcal would’ve given the Braves the flexibility to move in a few different directions this winter, depending on what other trade possibilities presented themselves.
They could’ve played Furcal at shortstop or moved him to second base and had Yunel Escobar stay at shortstop, with Kelly Johnson either going to the outfield or possibly traded in a later deal for a starting pitcher or a power-hitting outfielder.
Other, more radical options might have been considered, too, such as asking Chipper Jones if he’d consider moving to first base if a team was interested in trading for Casey Kotchman. Escobar has third-base experience, having played there when he was first brought up from the minors to fill in for an injured Chipper in 2007.
(Could you imagine the number of screaming throws made to first base in every game from a left side of the infield consisting of third baseman Escobar and shortstop Furcal, two of the strongest-armed infielders in the majors? Whoever handled first-base duties in that scenario would’ve needed a specially padded glove.)
Alas, Furcal’s not coming, so we’re only left to wonder what might have happened, who might have been subsequently traded, etc.
And now, the Braves are trying again to land a run-producing outfielder, and still have indicated no interest in the likes of Adam Dunn and Pat Burrell. Might that change due to circumstances? Perhaps, but I’ve heard nothing to make be think it has changed yet. We’ll see in the coming weeks.
I also haven’t heard that the Braves have expressed any serious interest in Derek Lowe or any interest at all in Ben Sheets, but if they still see getting a true “ace” to be a priority, well, it wouldn’t surprise me at all if they at least monitored the Lowe situation to see whether his asking price drops the way some believe it will, and also how serious the Red Sox and/or Yankees might go after Lowe.
As I mentioned a couple of days ago, the Braves are still squarely in the bidding for 33-year-old Kenshin Kawakami, a former winner of Japan’s Cy Young Award equivelent and a right-hander projected as a middle-rotation starter in the majors.
If the Braves could land him, they’d still lack an ace, but would presumably have three quality starters in Jair Jurrjens, Javier Vazquez and Kawakami, with the last couple of spots up for graps among the likes of Charlie Morton, Tommy Hanson, Jorge Campillo and, if he returns to pitch and returns the Braves, John Smoltz by perhaps May or June. And also, if he pitches again, Tom Glavine.
I still believe they really need to do all they can to get an ace, whether that’s Jake Peavy (which seems increasingly unlikely), or Lowe, or someone who might be available that we don’t even know about yet.
Just as we didn’t see the Furcal thing coming, it’s hard to predict what turn this unusual Braves offseason will take next. Wren has indicated that he’s not going to be as forthcoming henceforward with information regarding whom the Braves might have interest in, as he believes such information might have worked against the Braves so far this offseason.
In other words, it sounds like he’s determined to keeps things closer to the vest, more like the way John Schuerholz always ran such a tight ship (although in this day and age, that’s probably easier said than done).
So tell me, what do you think the Braves should do in terms of big moves the rest of the winter, and what do you think they will do? And remember, what might seem far-fetched to some might actually be within reason, given that the Braves are one of a handful of teams that actually have quite a bit of money to spend in a market that might end up including some bargains due to the lousy real-world economy that appears to finally be spilling over into baseball.
Before we go: Taking some vacation time (it began Saturday, despite this blog) and headed to Colorado on Christmas Dau. But before we go, as promised, our annual list of my top 50 CDs of the year. My rules are simple: It’s got to be a CD I possess in its entirety, not something I simply heard or read was good, not one I downloaded one or two songs from or heard on the radio.
Yes, that means there are going to be some good or even great ones that I missed, that I didn’t procure (so far) or decided I didn’t want to spent full suggested retail price on without hearing on a listening station or whatever. Some not listed here got great critical reviews, but I just didn’t like ‘em. Or there might be one or two I just forgot came out this year or overlooked when I was going through my stacks of music today trying to come up with this list.
Also, I’m aware that the Drive-By Truckers and James McMurtry CDs didn’t show up on many best-of-2008 lists in major music magazines or websites, or at least weren’t ranked highly. Doesn’t matter to me. They should have been. (Keep in mind, some of those lists included the entirely mediocre Guns n’ Roses CD in the top 25 or whatever, which is just ridiculous.)
My favorite country CD of the year: Alabaman Jamey Johnson’s hard country, old-school record, The Lonesome Song (just got this recently, and it’s so good I had to move it ahead of Hayes Carll’s Trouble In Mind.)
Favorite R&B CD: Raphael Saddiq’s The Way I See it. Has an authentic Motown or Stax vibe to it.
Favorite CD by an Atlanta band: Probably Deerhunter’s Microcastle, but only by a nose over the strong Gentlemen Jesse debut. Another great year for Atlanta bands, with CDs by the Whigs, the Selmanaires, Dead Confederate, and Anna Kramer & the Lost Cause all good enough for consideration on my list (though they didn’t make it).
Without further ado, the Top 50 of 2008:
Album of the Year: My Morning Jacket, Evil Urges; 2. Bob Dylan, Tell Tale Signs, Bootleg Series Vol. 8; 3. Drive-By Truckers, Brighter Than Creation’s Dark; 4. James McMurtry, Just Us Kids; 5. TV On The Radio, Dear Science; 6. Nick Cave & The Bad Seeds, Dig!!! Lazurus Dig!!! 7. Kings of Leon, Only By the Night; 8. Deerhunter, Microcastle; 9. The Hold Steady, Stay Positive, 10. R.E.M., Accelerate; 11. Jamey Johnson, The Lonesome Song; 12. Hayes Carll, Trouble In Mind; 13. Okkervil River, The Stand-Ins 14. Ryan Adams & The Cardinals, Cardinology; 15. The Raveonettes, Lust Lust Lust; 16. Gentleman Jesse, Introducing Gentleman Jesse and His Men 17. Santogold Santogold 18. Allison Moorer, Mockingbird; 19. Fleet Foxes, Fleet Foxes; 20. The Raconteurs, Consolers of the Lonely;
No. 21. Portishead, Third; 22. Raphael Saddiq, The Way I See It; 23. The Magnetic Fields, Distortion; 24. Beck, Modern Guilt; 25. Lucinda Williams, Little Honey; 26. Bon Iver, For Emma, Forever Ago; 27. Jenny Lewis, Acid Tongue; 28. Girl Talk, Feed The Animals; 29. Calexico, Carried to Dust; 30. The Black Keys, Attack & Release; 31. Wolf Parade, At Mount Zoomer; 32. Sun Kil Moon, April; 33. Conor Oberst, Conor Oberst; 34. Nas,Untitled; 35. The Roots, Rising Down; 36. Elbow; The Seldom Seen Kid; 37. John Mellencamp, Life, Death, Love & Freedom; 38. Black Kids, Partie Traumatic; 39. Mates of State, Re-Arrange Us; 40. Metallica, Death Magnetic;
No. 41. No Age, Nouns; 42. She & Him, Volume One; 43. Mudcrutch, Mudcrutch; 44. Q-Tip, The Renaissance; 45. Aimee Main, @#%&*! Smilers; 46. Blitzen Trapper, Furr; 47. Pretenders, Break Up The Concrete; 48. Susan Tedeschi, Back To The River; 49. North Mississippi Allstars, Hernando 50. The Gutter Twins, Saturnalia.
MERRY CHRISTMAS, EVERYBODY
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Time for Braves to reassess?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
It’s 70 degrees with high humidity here in Atlanta one week before Christmas, which somehow seems appropriate weather for this end-is-near sort of vibe around the ol’ Braves/MIB blog the past couple of days.
Hey, just so we’re clear, I don’t blame many of you for feeling quite concerned and upset about the way this offseason has gone thus far, though the cataclysmic characterization of things by some here might be going a bit overboard.
Anyway, what are the Braves to do? Well, believe it or not, there still is time to make significant moves, especially for a team that has a little (or lot) more money to spend than most other teams not based in New York or L.A.
And folks, don’t think that this economy isn’t going to affect some of the remaining free agents. Prices are coming down in January, and the Braves have money to spend. So that’s the “silver lining” in this mess that’s occurred so far — they haven’t committed much money to newcomers, so the Braves still have plenty to spend on what could be some relative bargains.
That said, it would seem that if the Braves are still set on contending in 2009, it would appear they’re going to have to change course on a few guys that they previously had little if any interest in. Derek Lowe and Ben Sheets being the ones that come to mind among pitchers, and Jermaine Dye among hitters.
Among hitters, I just don’t think the Braves have any desire to give a three-year or whatever contract to a poor defensive outfielder like Pat Burrell or Adam Dunn. Not that they couldn’t use the homers (they obviously could), but I don’t think they want to go long-term with a guy who’d block one of the younger outfielders a year or two from now, namely Jason Heyward, their top position-player prospect.
What if, just what if, Francoeur were to get his career back on track in 2009? Then a year or two from now, when Jordan Schafer or Gorkys Hernandez is in CF and Francoeur’s a fan-favorite again in RF, do you just assume you’d be able to shed the salary of a Burrell or Dunn and open a spot for Heyward?
If the Braves are thinking long-term (and they are), they’ve got to plan accordingly, to have room for the prospects they’re grooming now in a farm system is back to a healthy state with a lot of legit prospects who’ll be in the upper tiers this year, not a farm system where most of the best prospects are in rookie or A-ball the way they were a year or two ago after the Teixeira trade.
Heyward and Hanson might be the most talented homegrown prospects in the Braves’ system since Andruw Jones, and the Braves are going to make sure the path is not blocked for these guys and probably a few other top prospects.
So what to do for a bat? There are always trades we don’t get wind of beforehand, guys we aren’t aware are being shopped by other teams. The Braves have had talks with the Cardinals about Rick Ankiel and, before that, about Ryan Ludwick. I think the Ludwick stuff is dead, but Ankiel is still out there.
There are others, too, that are known to be on the block. But I keep coming back to Dye in recent days. Because, despite the Braves’ lack of interest previously this winter, he does make a lot of sense in their current situation.
He’s owed $11.5 mill in 2009, with a $12 mill mutal option for 2010 that includes a $1 mill buyout. He ain’t cheap, but hey, despite a lot of nagging injuries, he’s still had over 500 at-bats in five consecutive seasons while averaging about 33 homers homers and 110 RBI that span.
Thirty-three homers? That’s six more than all Braves outfielders combined in 2008. I must say, the longer I look at his numbers and contract, the more I don’t understand why the Braves don’t push hard to get him in a trade.
Getting back to Lowe: An assistant to uberagent Scott Boras said at the Winter Meetings that the Braves had called about Lowe a while back, so it probably was never the “zero interest” that some reports have claimed the Braves had in Lowe.
And now that he’s the only free agent left who could be called a durable ace, the Braves have to decide if getting an ace is an utmost priority. Go after him, roll the dice on Sheets, or pull off a trade where it’s looked like they couldn’t before, for Jake Peavy or Zack Greinke or someone a cut below that.
That, or go forward hoping that a rotation with mid-rotation guys like Jair Jurrjens and Javier Vazquez can be bolstered by the likes of Charlie Morton and top prospect Tommy Hanson, and, possibly, the Bearded Icon (John Smoltz) and/or Tom Glavine.
But that can be a road filled with peril, relying on unproven or surgically repaired veterans, a road the Braves have had a few bad experiences on in recent years. The injuries of recent seasons are, of course, the reason the Braves have steered clear of Sheets this winter.
The guy struggled mightily in his last few starts in September and couldn’t pitch in the postseason because of a throbbing elbow, so you tell me, is that a risk worth taking? Never won more than 12 games before winning 13 this year, despite immense and undeniable talent.
But with the market so thin for him, at least so far this winter, perhaps the Braves could get him on a two year or one season-plus-option deal. If so, probably would be worth the gamble, if they’re not going after Lowe.
That is, unless the Braves really don’t believe Sheets can help them out, or aren’t confident enough to bring him in and potentially go through more of the injured-pitcher drama they’ve dealt with seemingly every day for two years.
The other thing is, if there’s any sort of thought within the organization — and I’m just thinking aloud here, not anything whatsoever that I’ve heard indicated by any Braves people — that they probably aren’t going to be able to win the division or wild card in 2009 and don’t believe it’s worth giving a big salary to Sheets even for a year because he’s not going to make the difference.
But again, I’ve heard nothing from anyone in the organization to make me believe they’re thinking like that, as though they can’t contend for a playoff berth.
A blog regular sent me this: This guy’s in the mortgage biz, and he said what agent Paul Kinzer allegedly did to the Braves, taking their negotiated offer to the Dodgers to get more from them, was like what he sees in his own industry. He e-mailed me: “I knew they were playing us, btw. When I see Kinzer — and I will see him — he will get a glass of something spilled on him…whoops! :). He did what people do to me. They will take my Good faith and then shop everyone and say can you ‘beat this’.
(I didn’t have the heart to tell him, those in the mortgage business are probably only slightly above agents — or journalists, for that matter — on the public-opinion scale.)
Oliver Perez note: Lot of people here have recommended Braves go after Oliver Perez, despite the huge five-year contract that Boras is looking for. Well, I crunched some numbers today on the lefty Perez, noted Braves-killer that he’s been in recent years.
Get this: Perez is 5-2 with a 3.39 ERA in 10 starts against the Braves since the beginning of the 2006 season.
Against everyone else in that period, he’s 23-28 with a 4.70 ERA in 75 starts.
Folks, if I may say so myself, that’s remarkable.
And here’s one more stunning Perez stat from that three-season period. He’s 1-3 in nine starts against the Phillies despite a 3.38 ERA and .209 opponents’ average. His teams have scored just 2.25 runs per nine innings he’s pitched in those games against the Phillies, including two runs or fewer while he was in all nine games.
That said, 23-28 with a 4.70 ERA in 75 starts against teams other than Atlanta is pretty alarming, no?
Speaking of cow races: Before the other blog crashed, a person with the screen name STH made a comment about cow races. Coincidentally, I had a great experience at a cow-race event this week.
I went to the races outside Atlanta, near Between, Ga., a couple of days ago. If you’re not familiar with it, it’s a private cow track, and there’s a BBQ stand on the edge of the property that has incredible pulled pork, cooked with wood, the real way. And great sweet tea for 50 cents a glass, so sweet it tastes like waffles with syrup. The best.
And the gorgeous girl behind the counter was wearing little cutoff jean-shorts — imagine that, a week before Christmas. But hey, it was nearly 70 degrees. They don’t normally race the cows this time of year, but it’s been so warm they decided to call all neighboring farms and put together a special Christmas Cow Carnival, with races and a few good country bands.
Great music, great BBQ, great cow races. The kind of stuff that drives this blog!
Speaking of good music: Going to post the top-25 CDs list in next couple of days, before I go on vacation. STH, you’ve been warned. By the way, you weren’t kicked off any blog. It just crashed. Sorry to disappoint the martyr in you.
“BACKSTABBERS” by the O’Jays (written by Leon Huff, Gene McFadden, John Whitehead)
What they do
They smile in your face, all the time they wanna take your place the back stabbers
(back stabbers)
They smile in your face, all the time they wanna take your place the back stabbers
(back stabbers)
All you fellows, who have someone, and you really care, yeahhhhhhh, yeah, yeah
Then it’s all of you fellows who better beware, yeah, yeah
Somebody’s out to get your lady
A few of your buddies they sure look shady
Blades are long, clenched tight in their fists
Aimin’ straight at your back
And I don’t think they’ll miss
What they do!
They smile in your face
All the time they want to take your place
The back stabbers (back stabbers)
I keep gettin’ all these visits, from my friends, yeah,
(What they doing to me)
They come to my house again and again and again and again, yeah
So are they there to see my woman
I don’t even be home but they just keep on comin’
What can I do to get on the right track
I wish they’d take some of these knives off my back
What they do
They smile in your face
All the time they want to take your place
The back stabbers (back stabbers)
Low down… dirty…
What they do!
They smile in your face
Smiling faces… smiling faces sometimes
(Back stabbers)
They smile in your face
I don’t need… low down, dirty ba&&ards
(Back stabbers)
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Furcal matter handled smoothly, eh?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
I’m at least as tired as most of you of waiting for Rafael Furcal and his agent to tell us something, so I’m resorting to the one guaranteed way to get an answer quickly — write a new blog about how tedious this whole thing has become.
Within minutes of me posting this, we can probably count on a decision that will make whatever I write here a moot point. So blah blah blah, Gabba Gabba Hey (wait, where did that Ramones reference come from? Joey Ramone, rest in peace.)
Anyway, so I can’t remember a day of he said/he said quite as tumultuous as Tuesday, when the Braves and most of us in the baseball-reporting business were led to believe, assured even, that the Braves and Rafael Furcal had come to an informal agreement — a “gentlemen’s agreement” if you will — that he would sign a three-year contract with the Braves that included a vesting option.
The prodigal-son leadoff man was going to prove, once again, than you can go home — literally, as he has a house in Atlanta’s north-of-the-Perimeter ‘burbs.
But a funny thing happened on the way to his supposed physical. Well, not so funny if you’re the Braves or us who spent about 16 hours yesterday tethered to laptops and cell phones, waiting for a decision so we could carry on with other parts of our lives.
Somewhere along the way, between phone calls unreturned by his agent and silence emanating from the Braves’ unsure (and probably more than a bit miffed) front office, said agent was continuing to negotiate with the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Not going to go through the explanation the agent gave a few folks about what happened, since it was his quote the night before to Ken Rosenthal that had begun this whole thing in the first place. If not for those comments from the agent, none of us would have been pursuing this story under the impression that a deal was immiment, and I’m sure that certain people close to the situation wouldn’t have assured all of us individually that a deal was imminent.
Because when that many people think a deal is imminent, and are certain enough of it to tell reporters as much, well, there’s a reason. Someone who either makes the decision or works for the person who makes the decision had led them to believe that a deal was imminent.
Guess it’ll be left to all of us to put 2 and 2 together and decide who was most likely the person who might have either spoke too soon or decided that, you know what, there might be more money to be had out there if we don’t finalize this thing just yet.
Anyway, as I sit here at 11:30 a.m. waiting for callbacks or for an e-mail telling me the deal is officially done, I’m still thinking that Furcal is coming to the Braves. But I don’t feel nearly as sure as I did 24 hours ago.
Still, I’m not buying what I read in one report that Furcal strongly favors a return to the Dodgers. I think he definitely wouldn’t mind staying with them, but from everyone I’ve talked to in the past three years, including Furcal himself on several occasions, he has always missed the Braves and Bobby Cox.
It’s not the same team that he left after the 2005 season. Many of those Braves are gone. But some of his favorite, some of his friends, are still here, including guys like John Smoltz (well, maybe), Chipper Jones, Cox, Terry Pendleton, Eddie Perez, Tom Glavine, and several young players he got to know when they were rookies during the 2005 season.
And many more of his former teammates and/or friends still live in the Atlanta area, where Furcal was always comfortable. He plays winter ball in his native Dominican Republic and has many relativesl there. You don’t think Furcal would like to be a few hours closer to the D.R.?
Yes, he knows Cox could be gone after this season. And a few of the other guys he’s close to could be gone, some perhaps even sooner than Cox.
And hey, maybe all that, plus the warmer weather and the whole Southern California/L.A. vibe (Furcal is a cool dude, no doubt) and a manager (Joe Torre) who’s a lot like Cox, are among the many reasons he’d probably like to keep playing home games at Chavez Ravine, too. His other home is in the Los Angles area, after all.
On the other hand, the Braves’ three-year offer with a fourth-year vesting option is clearly better than the Dodgers’ two-year offer with a third-year vesting option. Even if the Dodgers improved that offer sometime last night (not sure if they did yet) to make it a three-year guarantee, it wasn’t likely they’d include a fourth-year vesting option easily attainable, as the Braves’ option is if Furcal stays reasonably healthy and doesn’t miss more than about 30 games in 2011.
Assuming both offers are worth about $10 mill annually, but the Braves’ deal might include a fourth season at that rate, the Atlanta offer is clearly better, particularly if Furcal decided to sell his L.A. home and consolidate again in Atlanta, where the cost of living is far lower than Southern California.
But who knows? Again, maybe Furcal likes it out there even more than I thought. Maybe he digs being able to drive with the windows down or the top off almost any day, and likes the scenery out there (who wouldn’t). And, hey, maybe he figures that both cities have hellish traffic so that part’s a wash.
And maybe the genial Torre is Cox, or a close-enough facsimile for Furcal, who adores “6” but, like I said, also knows he might not be around much longer in Atlanta. And did I mention the scenery? Yes.
Oh, what a tangled web we weave (particularly agents).
OK, that should about do it. Expect an announcement within minutes of this being posted. Thank me later for pushing this matter to resolution.
Diversions: If you don’t have an Oxford American magazine subscription, then I’d recommend get thee to the bookstore and procure the new issue. It’s their annual Southern Music CD, and this time it’s a 10th-anniversary double-CD. This issue and this CD are always terrific, but this year’s is particularly strong, with everyone from Jerry Lee Lewis (who’s on the cover) to Lucinda Williams, Neko Case to Little Walter, Richard Hell to Erma Franklin (Aretha’s sister). Sublime blues, country, rock, and everything in-between.
And here’s a song by a legendary band not from the South.
”SWINGIN’ PARTY” by The Replacements (Paul Westeberg)
Bring your own lampshade, somewhere there’s a party
Here it’s never endin’, can’t remember when it started
Pass around the lampshade, there’ll be plenty enough room in jail
If bein’ wrong’s a crime, I’m serving forever
If bein’ strong’s your kind, then I need help here with this feather
If bein’ afraid is a crime, we hang side by side
At the swingin’ party down the line
At the swingin’ party down the line
Pound the prairie pavement, losin’ proposition
Quittin’ school and going to work and never goin’ fishin’
Water all around, never learned how to swim now
If bein’ wrong’s a crime, I’m serving forever
If bein’ strong’s your kind, then I need help here with this feather
If bein’ afraid is a crime, we hang side by side
At the swingin’ party down the line
At the swingin’ party down the line
Bring your own lampshade, somewhere there’s a party
Here it’s never endin’, can’t remember when it started
Pass around the lampshade, there’ll be plenty enough room in jail
If bein’ wrong’s a crime, I’m serving forever
If bein’ strong is what you want, then I need help here with this feather
If bein’ afraid is a crime, we hang side by side
At the swingin’ party down the line
At the swingin’ party down the line
Catch you down at the swingin’ party down the line
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Might Furcal move trigger another trade?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
To make their first major move this winter, the Braves called on an old friend. Now, will signing Rafael Furcal — assuming they get that done — trigger another, possibly bigger move?
And hey, if you’re going to have a lineup regular with back issues, I guess you might as well make it a cannon-armed shortstop who’s one of the best leadoff hitters in the league.
That way, it’ll provide us with a guarantee of big stories, either about Rafael Furcal’s triumphant return to Atlanta to win Comeback Player of the Year award and lead the Braves back to the postseason, or about what a questionable move it was to bring him here after his back gives out in spring training, or — and this is probably more likely — something in between those extremes.
We’re assuming you all have heard that the Braves seem to be on the verge of signing Furcal, 31, though they haven’t announced anything and won’t until after he passes a physical Wednesday or Thurday. Considering he had back surgery in July, that’s not the given that it is in most of these cases, but I’d be surprised if he doesn’t pass it.
(There was also word this afternoon from Furcal’s agent, Paul Kinzer, that nothing had been finalized yet, that the Dodgers were still going to have a chance to surpass the Braves offer, though L.A. GM Ned Colletti has indicated three years might be his limit on Furcal; the Dodgers had offered two plus a vesting option. If they don’t surpass the Braves’ offer, I can’t see Furcal turning down chance to return to Atlanta, where he loved everything about his experience here and still has a lot of friends on the team and/or living in the area around his suburban Atlanta home.)
(Oh, and just so you know, his surgery was a procedure similar to the one that Mark Kotsay had in March 2007, and we saw Kotsay play very well early last season for the Braves before going on the DL for more than a month due to a recurrence of back issues.)
So, assuming Furcal passes his physical and signs the three-year deal with a vesting option, then what’s next for the Bravos?
First, let me say it’s a move that gives them an offensive catalyst who sparks a lineup and drives pitchers nuts on the bases, a serious stolen-base threat (provided the back allows it these days). Braves just haven’t had that type of guy since he left.
But are they getting him to play SS or 2B? He’s only played one game at second base in the past six seasons, and my first reaction is, he ain’t ready to move there permanently at age 31, where his cannon arm would seem almost wasted.
On the other hand, a double-play combo of Yunel Escobar and Rafael Furcal would be potentially one of the most athletic, dynamic keystone combos you’d ever see, not to mention perhaps the strongest couple of arms any middle infield ever featured.
But would the Braves really be bringing back Furcal if they planned on keeping Escobar? I have doubts. Sure, they could just trade 2B Kelly Johnson or move him to left field, but given the doubts that Bobby Cox and Frank Wren have expressed about K.J. moving back to the outfield, I don’t know.
Trade Kelly? Yeah, they could, but I haven’t heard him connected to any trade rumors this winter involving a top starting pitcher.
The only reason that makes more sense is because of Furcal’s back and the fact that Martin Prado’s best position is second base. Follow me here: Braves trade Kelly Johnson and play Furcal at second base. Then if he gets hurt, they plug in Prado.
Or they play Furcal at shortstop and Escobar at second base (I wonder how Yunel would greet that move?), then if Furcal gets hurt they move Escobar back to SS and plug Prado in at 2B. In that scenario, the Braves could trade Kelly or move him to left field to be the run-producing OF they haven’t been able to acquire yet this winter.
Oh, the intrigue.
An Escobar trade, though, seems more likely. We’ve all heard the rumors this winter, including the big one that consumed the Braves for more than six weeks, the Jake Peavy debacle … er, negotiations, with the San Diego Padres.
Talked to someone in San Diego late last night who still had doubts whether Peavy would even waive his no-trade clause to come to Atlanta, despite the fact the Alabama native had the Braves on his initial list of five teams he wouldn’t mind being traded to.
Maybe Jake’s reported concerns about going to a team that was Escobar-less and might not be able to compete in the East would be alleviated by the addition of Furcal? I don’t know. With Jake, does anybody know other than his agent?
But as I’ve said all along, the Peavy-to-Braves deal makes too much sense for both teams to let anything other than a Peavy refusal prevent it from happening. I still feel that way, despite Sandy Alderson telling the San Diego Union-Tribune last night that they anticipate having Peavy on opening day.
The other big pitcher the Braves have talked to with Escobar in the mix was Zack Greinke of the Royals, but K.C. seems reluctant to deal him. Still, he’s gone from Kansas City in two years as a free agent, almost certainly. So if Royals GM Dayton Moore might realize a deal for a potential All-Star shortstop (and yes, Escobar is just that, folks, particularly in the American League) who’d be under contractual control for a few more years makes sense.
But we’ll see.
In the meantime, there’s no doubt the Braves just got a lot better in the leadoff role, provided Furcal is healthy.
They haven’t made the postseason for three years since Furcal left (and they made it every season while he was here). He’s hardly the only reason for that, as pitching injuries and budget constraints undermined the Braves.
But the Furcal departure after 2005 left a hole the Braves have had mixed results filling. At times, the likes of Escobar, K.J. and Gregor Blanco did fine for a week here, even a month there, in the leadoff role.
But over the course of a season, none have come close to the leadoff man that Furcal was, with his speed/power combo to go with a healthy OBP and ability to work counts and give hitters behind him a good, early look at a pitcher’s stuff.
Furcal, 31, has a .286 career average and .352 on-base percentage with 83 homers, 788 runs, 418 RBI and 259 stolen bases in 1,150 games.
He played only 37 games during the 2008 season, but had a .357 average with 19 extra-base hits including five homers, 16 RBI and eight stolen bases, along with a .439 OBP, his highest since his .394 in his 2000 Rookie of the Year season.
Furcal played in each of the Dodgers’ first 32 games, and didn’t return until the last week of the season. The Dodgers were 18-14 with him playing in those first 32 games, then lost five of six games and 24 of the next 37 without him.
He hit .285 with a .348 OBP and 100 stolen bases in 453 games in his last three seasons with the Braves through 2005, and hit .293 with a .362 OBP and 70 steals in 333 games over the past three seasons.
He’s posted better numbers than ever in the past three seasons - when he’s played. Problem is that he’s played 138 and 36 games in the past two seasons, after playing 154 or more in four of the previous five seasons.
Here’s how his replacements have fallen short of filling Furcal’s shoes:
Last year with the Dodgers, he hit .353 with a .434 OBP in 139 at-bats as a leadoff man. Juan Pierre was the only Dodger with as many as 200 at-bats in the role, and Pierre hit .261 with a .293 OBP.
(For the Braves in 2008, Escobar hit .285 with a .358 OBP in 158 at-bats in the leadoff role; Gregor Blanco hit .252 with a strong .371 OBP in a team-high 234 at-bats in the role, but had 51 strikeouts and only nine extra-base hits for a .299 slugging percentage.)
In Furcal’s last season with the Braves in 2005, he hit .285 with a .348 OBP and 54 extra-base hits (12 homers) and 58 RBI in 615 at-bats in the leadoff role. No other Braves player had more than 22 at-bats at leadoff that year.
In 2005, Braves leadoff hitters ranked third in the league in runs (113), average (.295) and slugging (.439), and fourth in OBP (.439).
In 2008, Braves leadoff hitters were tied for 12th in runs (94) and ranked 11th in average (.273), 14th in slugging (.375) and tied for third in OBP (.356).
Furcal will be welcome back with open arms at the top of the order. Now just cross your fingers and hope his back holds up.
Let’s hope the pictures from Furcal’s X-rays or MRI look better than pictures of Tony Curtis’ (allegedly) surgically enhanced face in those ClearChoice Dental Implant Center newspaper ads where he’s wearing a beret.
”THE MOON’S A HARSH MISTRESS” by Jimmy Webb
See her how she flies
Golden sails across the sky
Close enough to touch
But careful if you try
Though she looks as warm as gold
The moon’s a harsh mistress
The moon can be so cold
Once the sun did shine
Lord, it felt so fine
The moon a phantom rose
Through the mountains and the pines
And then the darkness fell
And the moon’s a harsh mistress
It’s so hard to love her well
I fell out of her eyes
I fell out of her heart
I fell down on my face
Yes, I did, and I — I tripped and I missed my star
God, I fell and I fell alone, I fell alone
And the moon’s a harsh mistress
And the sky is made of stone
The moon’s a harsh mistress
She’s hard to call your own.
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Whither Smoltz? Who is Kawakami?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
We’re back from Sin City, and fairly certain that soon I’m going to have an entire day off. No, seriously. It’ll happen. Christmas is right around the corner.
But we know that exasperated, frustrated Braves fans are in no mood to hear complaints. Not when the fate of the franchise, or at least the 2009 season, could rest on whether or not Frank Wren and his men (good name for a rock band, by the way) are able to lock down an ace and a run-producing outfielder between now and opening day, and preferably yesterday.
Got some news for you on the pitching front, a day after the Braves lost potential No. 1 starter A.J. Burnett to the Yankees, where he can operate in the shadow (literally and figuratively) of CC Sabathia, whose $161 mill contract for seven years was about double the $82.5 mill the Yankees will shell out to A.J. over five years.
Think about it: $243.5 mill for two pitchers whose 214-149 combined won-loss record is about the same as John Smoltz’s 210-147 record — minus Smoltz’s 154 saves, of course. And 15 wins and 194 strikeouts in the postseason. (Sabathia has two postseason wins and 15 strikeouts; Burnett has no postseason experience.)
Anyway, where were we? Oh, yes. Pitching news. And no, it’s not about Smoltz, because I don’t have an update on the Bearded Braves Icon. Well, other than to say I’ve gone from 99-percent certain he’ll be back with the Braves to about 80-percent certain, given what his agent said at the Winter Meetings about him having options, and given the interest level that teams including the Red Sox have indicated they have, along with the wait-and-see approach the Braves are taking, not willing to commit a roster spot or guaranteed contract to Smoltz until they’re reasonably certain he can pitch at a major league level in 2009.
Folks, I’m not saying this is going to get ugly in Braves Nation, but there’s at least the potential of that, if another team offers Smoltz a major league contract and the Braves do not, or another team offers him what he might consider to be a fair salary and the Braves do not (whatever the Braves offer, it’s probably going to be a relatively low salary with incentives).
But that’ll all be resolved, one way or another, a little later this winter. Smoltz threw off the mound for the first time just over a week ago, so it’s still too early for the Braves to feel comfortable enough to offer him a contract.
Which brings us back to the original point of today’s post, the news I wanted to bring you: The Braves are interested in another Japanese pitcher, and this one isn’t a prospect who’d take a year or two to reach the majors like Junichi Tazawa, the 22-year-old the Braves bid for recently but lost to the Red Sox.
This time it’s 33-year-old Kenshin Kawakami, a right-hander who in 2004 won both the Central League MVP award and the Sawamura Award, the Japanese equivelent of the Cy Young Award.
A former Japanese Central League rookie of the year and a three-time Gold Glove winner, Kawakami has pitched 11 seasons or the Chunichi Dragons and is a free agent who won’t require any compensation or posting fee from whichever major league team signs him.
He has a 112-72 career record and 3.22 ERA, led his league in strikeouts in 2006, and had a career-best strikeout rate in 2008, when he totaled 113 strikeouts with 30 walks in 117-1/3 innings during the regular season.
The Braves are competing for his services along with some of the usual suspects including the Red Sox, Angels, Dodgers and Orioles. But before you see Boston mentioned and assume he’ll follow Tazawa and join Dice-K in Beantown, it’s worth noting that the Braves are particularly motivated to improve their rotation.
I’m told that if there’s a favorite to land his services, it might be Baltimore.
“We had a very productive conversation with the Braves during the Winter Meetings,” said Kawakami’s agent Dan Evans, a former major league GM. “They made a very solid presentation and Frank Wren demonstrated a very good feel for Japanese baseball. That won some points [with Kawakami].”
We should be clear up front: Kawakami is not projected to be a No. 1 starter, but scouts say he could fill a No. 2 or No. 3 role for many major league rotations, or a No. 4 spot for a loaded rotation.
In other words, he might be better than Javier Vazquez.
For some context, consider that Kawakami is six months younger than Hiroki Kuroda, who came from Japan a year ago and went 9-10 with a 3.73 ERA for the Dodgers in 2008 in 31 starts and 183-1/3 innings.
Kawakami and Kuroda both pitched in Japan’s Central League. In their last three years before free agency, Kuroda went 40-26 with a 2.86 ERA and Kawakami was 38-20 with a 2.81 ERA. Kuroda had a 103-89 career record and 3.69 ERA in Japan.
Kawakami was the highest paid starter for the traditionally strong Chunichi Dragons, and the team’s Game 1 starter in the past five consecutive postseasons.
He’s regarded as a wily, crafty veteran whose fastball tops out at about 90 mph (if you believe one scouting report I saw), or 93 mph (if you believe his agent). He throws a slow curveball and a very good cutter, scouting reports say. Kawakami has a reputation as a big-game pitcher who challenges hitters.
So there you have it. It’s probably best not to get your hopes up too high in this season of being left at the altar. But at least it appears the Braves are turning over every rock trying to strengthen a rotation. They had better continue to do so.
Atlanta starters ranked 11th in the NL with a 4.60 ERA in 2008, and remarkably had only one pitcher work as many as 145 innings in a starting role (Jair Jurrjens) and none work 200 innings.
Still haven’t heard if the Braves might try to revive the Jake Peavy negotiations, but to get any semblance of a true No. 1 starter it’s either Peavy, roll the dice on Ben Sheets, overpay for Scott Boras client Derek Lowe, or somehow work a trade for an ace we don’t currently know to be available.
Diversions: Bunch of good movies coming out, and I can’t wait to see two that are getting a ton of Oscar buzz— The Wrestler with Mickey Rourke and Gran Torino starring and directed by Clint Eastwood. Those two haven’t opened in Atlanta yet, but two others I want to see, Frost/Nixon and Slumdog Millionaire have, and I’m gonna hopefully see both this week. Anybody got a review of any of those yet?… Oh, and did you see the new TNT show Leverage with Timothy Hutton? I watched the first episode last night and was pleasantly surprised. Very entertaining. I’ve got the second episode on DVR, haven’t watched yet. Hopefully it’s as good as the opener.
Christmas music, if we must: Don’t know how you all feel, but I have an approximate 24-hour window during which I might actually enjoy Christmas tunes, and that’s from noon Christmas Eve to noon Christmas Day.
During that time, and scattered other moments in December, give me Christmas tunes by Elvis Presley, Johnny Cash, James Brown, Dean Martin, Frank Sinatra, and the absolute best, most rockingest two Christmas albums ever recorded, Phil Spector’s A Christmas Gift For You with his trademark wall-of-sound production and soulful singing by the Ronettes, the Crystals, Darlene Love and other sensational girl groups, and Christmas A Go-Go with Keith Richards doing “Run Rudolph Run,” the Ramones’ “Merry Christmas (I Don’t Want to Fight Tonight)” and Soupy Sales (yes, Soupy Sales) doing “Santa Claus is Surfin’ To Town.” Ah, tradition.
Folks, if you’ve never heard that Spector Christmas creation, you’ve never heard cool Christmas songs. The man was a genius before he lost his mind. That album is terrific. Yes, a terrific Christmas album. You can order it on Amazon.com. You won’t regret it.
The following is not a Christmas song, just a great song:
”CALEB MEYER” by Gillian Welch
Caleb Meyer, he lived alone
In them hollarin’ pines
Then he made a little whiskey for himself
Said it helped pass the time
Long one evening in back of my house,
Caleb come around
And he called my name ‘til I went out
with no one else around
Caleb Meyer, your ghost is gonna
wear them rattlin’ chains.
but when I go to sleep at night,
Don’t you call my name
Where’s your husband, Nellie Kane
Where’s your darlin gone?
Did he go down off the mountain side
and leave you all alone?
Yes, my husband’s gone to Bowlin’ Green
to do some business there.
Then Caleb threw that bottle down
and grabbed me by my hair.
Caleb Meyer, your ghost is gonna
wear them rattlin’ chains.
but when I go to sleep at night,
Don’t you call my name.
He threw me in the needle bed,
across my dress he lay
then he pinned my hands above my head
and I commenced to pray.
I cried My God, I am your child
send your angels down
Then feelin’ with my fingertips,
the bottle neck I found
I drew that glass across his neck
as fine as any blade,
and I felt his blood pour fast and hot
around me where I laid.
Caleb Meyer, your ghost is gonna
wear them rattlin’ chains.
But when I go to sleep at night,
Don’t you call my name
Caleb Meyer, your ghost is gonna
wear them rattlin’ chains.
But when I go to sleep at night,
Don’t you call my name.
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This isn’t what Braves planned
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Las Vegas — There was a time when the Braves didn’t have to worry about whether a player would waive a no-trade clause to come to Atlanta. A time when the Braves would go dollar-for-dollar with the Yankees or anyone else. A time when seemingly every pitcher wanted to be a Brave.
That time has passed.
Players do not want to come to Atlanta the way they used to want to come to Atlanta. Especially pitchers. It’s still more attractive than a majority of the 30 teams in baseball, but not necessarily more attractive, or even as attractive, as a handful or more big-money, big-market teams competing for top players.
Much of that has to do with the facts that A., the Braves have missed the postseason for three years running, and will have to knock off the defending World Series champions and/or the new-stadiumed, deep-pocketed N.Y. Mets to get to the playoffs in 2009; and 2., the Braves are competing against a few teams, one in particular (hint: pinstripes), that are spending far more money than the Braves.
If the Braves’ payroll is arbitrary and not set by ownership, then I’d suggest it might be time to raise it about $10 million above whatever that private payroll figure was that Braves officials had in mind. That, or realize that it’s going to take a confluence of favorable events to get the Braves into the postseason next year, because they just aren’t going to have a combination of rotation/bullpen/lineup that stacks up against the Mets and Phillies without getting at least one more top-notch starting pitcher and another big bat to help out Chipper Jones and Brian McCann.
The Yankees overnight became the first team to guarantee a fifth year for Burnett, Peter Gammons reports. That’s the length of contract Burnett’s agent had said would be there for his client, now it is. I thought all along that the Braves would be willing to guarantee that fifth year, too, but now I’m not sure if they will. We might soon know if they did, probably after Burnett signs with the Yankees.
This is history most of you already know, but here goes: Until five or six years ago, the Braves were in the top five consistently in major league league payroll, and sometime in the top three, very close to the Yankees’ spending levels. They’ve spent between one-third and one-half of what the Yankees have spent in payroll during the past five seasons, and the divide is only growing with every new contract the Evil Empire hands out as it pursues market saturation of pitching talent.
The Braves, then owned by Time Warner, cut back their spending earlier this decade, while the Yankees literally doubled their payrolls from those days when they and the Braves used to have payrolls just over $100 mill (it really wasn’t long ago, believe it or not).
Don’t get me wrong: The Braves aren’t some sort of woebegone, hopeless franchise with no hope of drawing any free agents; they’re just not one of the top draws for the top free agents anymore. That’s the big difference that a lot of long-time fans are struggling to accept, or are angrily accepting.
Bobby Cox might retire after next season, and players know that. There’s that uncertainty, plus no reason to believe that payroll will rise significantly in the future to give the Braves the power to compete for most top free agents.
What they do have is a rebuilt farm system that’s once again regarded as one of baseball’s best, and plenty of payroll flexibility in the future, as only Brian McCann is signed beyond 2009. But until they get back to the postseason, until they show players they can win again, I don’t know how much a farm system and future payroll flexibility matter to attractive free agents and players with no-trade clauses.
And whereas the Braves of old would have been the ideal destination for a country boy from Alabama who grew up cheering for them, it’s now a team that, according to a couple of people I know who have talked to Peavy, does not excite him because he doesn’t think they are on a level with the Mets and Phillies and he’s had enough of losing with the Padres.
If it’s any consolation, Braves fans should at least know that Peavy doesn’t appear at all to be the type of guy who’d want to come in and put the Braves on his back and lead them back to prosperity, like their aces of old. Instead, it now appears pretty clear that he’d prefer to go to Chicago — so much for that Southern Boy-wants-to-go-home notion — and pitch for an already formed playoff team.
Now, we’ll soon find out if A.J. Burnett prefers the Yankees and the juggernaut they’re assembling for their first season at new Yankee Stadium, over a return to the NL with the Braves, who may or may not match the Yankees’ contract offer, but, so far at least, have been very close (the Braves’ first offer, four years and $60 mill with an option for a fifth year) was already far longer and richer than they would have envisioned spending on Burnett a couple of months ago, when they were optimistic about their chances of landing Peavy, the 2007 Cy Young Award winner from Mobile, who was owed $63 mill over the next four seasons or $81 over the next five, either figure not out of line for a pitcher of his ilk.
But here we are, 2-1/2 months into the offseason, wrapping up the Winter Meetings this morning, and the Braves have so far this offseason acquired Javier Vazquez, a good middle-rotation starter but no ace, and backup catcher Dave Ross, and a couple of promising but unaccomplished lefty relievers.
The outlook could change in a hurry. Maybe the Braves suddenly decide, “You know what? We really, really need Burnett or Derek Lowe, or Ben Sheets, so let’s match or surpass any offer for at least one of those guys.” Then the Braves have a guy who, if healthy, can go toe-to-toe most nights with any other team’s ace, a guy who could set the tone for the rest of a rotation that would suddenly look pretty solid.
But so far, the outlook isn’t exactly splendid for Los Bravos.
”THERE SHE GOES, MY BEAUTIFUL WORLD” by Nick Cave
The wintergreen, the juniper
The cornflower and the chicory
All the words you said to me
Still vibrating in the air
The elm, the ash and the linden tree
The dark and deep, enchanted sea
The trembling moon and the stars unfurled
There she goes, my beautiful world
There she goes, my beautiful world
There she goes, my beautiful world
There she goes, my beautiful world
There she goes again
John Wilmot penned his poetry
riddled with the pox
Nabokov wrote on index cards,
at a lectern, in his socks
St. John of the Cross did his best stuff
imprisoned in a box
And Johnny Thunders was half alive
when he wrote Chinese Rocks
Well, me, I’m lying here,
with nothing in my ears
Me, I’m lying here, with nothing in my ears
Me, I’m lying here, for what seems years
I’m just lying on my bed
with nothing in my head
Send that stuff on down to me
Send that stuff on down to me
Send that stuff on down to me
Send that stuff on down to me
There she goes, my beautiful world
There she goes, my beautiful world
There she goes, my beautiful world
There she goes again
Karl Marx squeezed his carbuncles
while writing Das Kapital
And Gaugin, he buggered off, man,
and went all tropical
While Philip Larkin stuck it out
in a library in Hull
And Dylan Thomas died drunk in
St. Vincent’s hospital
I will kneel at your feet
I will lie at your door
I will rock you to sleep
I will roll on the floor
And I’ll ask for nothing
Nothing in this life
I’ll ask for nothing
Give me ever-lasting life
I just want to move the world
I just want to move the world
I just want to move the world
I just want to move
There she goes, my beautiful world
There she goes, my beautiful world
There she goes, my beautiful world
There she goes again
So if you got a trumpet, get on your feet,
brother, and blow it
If you’ve got a field, that don’t yield,
well get up and hoe it
I look at you and you look at me and
deep in our hearts know it
That you weren’t much of a muse,
but then I weren’t much of a poet
I will be your slave
I will peel you grapes
Up on your pedestal
With your ivory and apes
With your book of ideas
With your alchemy
O Come on
Send that stuff on down to me
Send that stuff on down to me
Send that stuff on down to me
Send that stuff on down to me
Send that stuff on down to me
Send it all around the world
Cause here she comes, my beautiful girl
There she goes, my beautiful world
There she goes, my beautiful world
There she goes, my beautiful world
There she goes again
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CC to NY, now AJ to ATL?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Las Vegas — Now that the first huge domino named CC has fallen, the Braves hope the one named A.J. will fall soon. Provided it falls toward Atlanta.
CC Sabathia and the Yankees have reportedly agreed to the framework of an seven-year, $160 million contract — framework as enormous as the 6-7, 300-pound Sabathia himself — other free agents should start getting serious about their own future destinations.
So how does the Sabathia deal with the Yankees, reached sometime during Yankee GM Brian Cashman’s visit Tuesday night to Sabathia’s Northern California home, affect the Braves’ chances of beating out the Yanks and other suitors for the services of Burnett?
Well, there’s two ways of looking at it. I tend to think it improves the likelihood, unless another team comes in and raises the ante even further than the Yankees did when Cashman made Burnett what was believed to be a four-year, $64 million offer on Tuesday, which is $4 mill more than the Braves’ offer made to Burnett last week.
That initial Braves offer might be worth more just based on the cost of living in New York compared to Atlanta. That said, I’ve got to believe the Braves will consider raising it, if necessary, and perhaps turning a fifth-year option from that offer to a fifth-year guarantee and perhaps increasing the per-season average for a total of $80 mill. It was reported elsewhere this morning that the Braves have already done that, though I haven’t gotten it confirmed from any reliable source on either side.
The Braves indicated all along they would be willing to improve their already rather large offer in order to assure they land Burnett, one of the few remaining pitchers that comes close to fitting the “ace” label.
The others are Derek Lowe, a Scott Boras client that most believe is eventually headed to Boston or the Yankees, Ben Sheets, who has never won more than the 13 games he won this season for Milwaukee, and has not totaled as many as 160 strikeouts or 200 innings since 2004. Braves haven’t shown much, if any, real interest in him.
Oh, and don’t forget Jake Peavy, the rumor-a-minute machine who was the target of the Braves’ attentions for more than six weeks this offseason before the frustrated Braves pulled out of stalled trade negotiations with the Padres for the 2007 NL Cy Young Award winner.
If he doesn’t go to the Cubs in a multi-team deal that may or may not be close, depending which report you read or who you ask, then perhaps — hey, we said perhaps - the Braves could revisit that if Burnett falls through.
And sure, the Yankees could raise their offer to A.J., too. But ask yourself this: Even the Yankees, with their apparent ability to print money in a vault beneath Yankee Stadium, might be uncomfortable going five guaranteed years with Burnett on top of seven guaranteed with Sabathia.
Insurers don’t go beyond three years on these contracts, though teams can renew after any year. In other words, the Braves could sign Burnett to a five-year deal, then renew their three-year policy after the first year if he stays healthy, so they’d be covered through the fourth season. And so on.
But just what if, what if, the Sabathia got hurt halfway through that contract, a major injury. Same for Burnett. Oh, that’d be a lot of money committed for a long time to pitchers potentially not as good as they were when those deals were handed out.
Burnett’s agent, Darek Braunecker, who met for the first time face-to-face with Braves GM Frank Wren on Tuesday (their previous conversations were over the phone) has said his client probably wouldn’t sign before the Winter Meetings in Vegas adjourn Thursday.
I don’t know that the Sabathia signing with affect that at all, since Burnett’s agent has indicated that another team might raise its interest level in A.J. after the resolution of other unnamed developments it was monitoring.
Perhaps that meant that a team with interst in Sabathia might raise its interest level in Burnett if Sabathia signed with the Yankees. I’m not sure. Maybe we’ll know more later today if Braunecker elaborates.
In the meantime, let’s consider for a moment the enormity of the Sabathia contract, the most lucrative deal in major league history for a pitcher. Did the man pick the right time to churn out brilliant, clutch performances on short rest, or what? With free agency waiting, he pitched like a man possessed for Milwaukee down the stretch this season, after being traded from Cleveland.
Now he gets the deal of his lifetime, or the lifetime of pitcher who’s lived until now.
Just consider, Sabathia will make more during this deal than Greg Maddux, who retired Monday, made during his entire, spectacular 23-year career. Maddux made about $154 million and won 355 games, recording 109 complete games and 3,371 strikeouts in 5,008-1/3 innings and 740 starts.
Sabathia, 28, has 117 career wins and 1,659 innings.
After going 17-10 with 251 strikeouts in 253 innings this season, he would have to average 16.5 wins and 223 innings for the next 15 seasons to match Maddux.
OK, a tune: Got to keep this blog short because we have a BBWAA meeting at 9 a.m. Vegas time. We’ll be back shortly. Enjoy the music. (I live Glen Campbell’s cover of this song best.)
”GALVESTON” by Jimmy Webb
Galveston, oh Galveston
I still hear your sea winds blowing
I still see her dark eyes glowing
She was twenty-one
When I left Galveston
Galveston, oh Galveston
I still hear your sea waves crashing
While I watch the cannon flashing
And I clean my gun
And I dream of Galveston
I still see her standing by the water
Standing there, looking out to sea
And is she waiting there for me?
On the beach where we used to run
Galveston, oh Galveston
I am so afraid of dying
Before I dry the tears she’s crying
Before I see your sea birds flying
In the sun, at Galveston
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Maddux will be missed; could Ankiel be a Brave?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Las Vegas — He walked among us as just another guy, with an rather unimpressive physique and a wonderful whacked-out, self-deprecating sense of humor.
But atop the pitcher’s mound, Greg Maddux was not just another guy. Or even just another major league ace.
He was a pitching god. The best I’ve ever seen. An absolute master. The smartest, craftiest, and most aware baseball player - not just pitcher - that I ever had the privilege of covering or just watching.
Oh, and did I mention, a joy to be around? He really was. Made you glad you did something like this for a living, he was that special.
And yes, there was that penchant for sick humor and practical jokes, most of them unfit to be discussed here (teammates knew not to reach into the bin of sanitary socks without looking first, for Maddux was known to leave something, uh, unsanitary).
I could tell you about how he (allegedly) urinated in the hot tub when he was a young Cubs pitcher, that story told to me years ago by Andre Dawson, who was in the big tub with a couple of other Cubs veterans when young Maddux informed them that he’d relieved himself in it a few minutes earlier.
Most of the stories are funnier, but also more offensive.
Maddux was the neighbor most of us would probably like to hang out with, to watch a ballgame and have a beer with.
It was remarkable to think that one who was capable of being so immature (in a good way) at times, could be so ferocious and dedicated when it came to pitching, and so brilliant when discussing any aspect of the game, not just pitching.
He was a relentless competitor, pitching through aches and seldom producing less than an exemplary, often overwhelming, performance.
“Greg Maddux is the best artist I ever saw paint a baseball game,” the Hall of Fame pitcher Don Sutton told me this morning. “And the most secure, confident-within-himself pitcher I watched work.
“Some of the things he could forsee happening in a game, and the ways he could manipulate hitters, I’ve never seen anyone else do. I wish I could have played with him - through osmosis, I probably would have won 50 more games. He may be the smartest baseball man I’ve ever been around.”
Sutton was a Braves broadcaster, of course, during the Big Three heyday of Braves pitching, when Maddux, Glavine and Smoltz ruled the roost in the majors’ best rotations, year after year after year.
“That group there in Atlanta was amazing,” Sutton said. “They would watch every pitch and dissect, which you don’t see other pitching staffs do. Maddux, Smoltz and Glavine made each other better.
“In my mind, the Phi Beta Kappa of the group was Maddux. He was absolutely brilliant.”
Well said, Don.
Yes, the broke the mold when them made Maddux. I don’t expect to ever see another pitcher as great as him, much as I don’t expect to see a basketball player as great as Michael Jordan.
I am certain I will never know another pitcher as smart and unassuming, and with such a sense of humor.
I filed a long story that should be posted at our website soon, but here’s a few other Maddux quotes that didn’t make it in the story.
Maddux on:
His years with the Braves: ”Very special. We won all 11 years I was in Atlanta. They won before I got there and won every year I was there. And just to be around that atmosphere … I remember Bobby talking about in spring training, that we were getting ready for the postseason. We weren’t getting ready for the season, we were getting ready for the postseason. We did a little bit less in spring training because we knew our season was going to be seven months, not six.
“We had that winning attitude back in February. Bobby, thank you, for everything you taught me about the game. Leo as well, and all the coaches. I just had a lot of coaches that taught me so much about the game, that hopefully I’ll use in the future and pass down as time goes on.”
On whether he ever wondered what might’ve been if he never left Chicago:: “A little bit. Not a whole lot. You know, when I left Chicago I was not ready to leave. Buy sometimes the grass is greener on the other side. You know, I got a chance to win in Atlanta, and win a lot.
“To share that with guys like Smoltzy, Glav, Avery, Kevin Millwood, all the guys I had a chance to pitch with … it was pretty cool. And just to go there and actually learn how to have fun, and to play golf between starts. Smoltz always had something set up [to play golf]; that was pretty cool.
“To meet people from all over the country on the golf course, and at the same time win ever year, and to have such an enjoyment to go to the park every day. I think winning creates that, and it was nice to be a part of that.”
On possibly coaching or managing in the future: “You know, I might. Right now I want to take a year off and spend time with the family, do things that I haven’t been able to do because of baseball, and see if I like it. I assume I’ll like it, but I also don’t know how bad I’m gonna miss the game.
“I mean, baseball is all I know. I don’t really know a whole lot about anything, but I think I know a few things about baseball. I’m gonna miss it, and hopefully I don’t miss it too much. I haven’t gotten to that point yet. Right now it’s kind of a long offseason for me, doing things I’ve done for the last 20 offseasons. Nothing’s really different for me [yet].
On the Braves-Mets rivalry and games at Shea Stadium: “It was fun. It was always fun to go to New York. We had Chipper on our team, and Chipper always used to do big things there. It was fun watching the guys play there, and it was also fun being part of it.
“Shea Stadium is one of the best places to play baseball, and especially when the Mets were good. For us to go there, I’ll just never forget it. There was a smell, there were just some things about Shea Stadium that felt like, this is a pretty cool place to be.”
On his amazing run in the ‘90s:: I guess you just get locked in. You’re comfortable with what you’re trying to do with the baseball…. There weren’t too many pitchers that threw the way I threw, and hitters didn’t see it a lot. I think that was a big advantage at the time. You know, you just kind of have a couple of good games and start on a roll from there.”
On learning from Tom Glavine:: “I think probably the biggest thing I learned pitching alongside Glavine, was to realize you don’t have to be 100 percent to win. You have to take the ball and you have to go out there. That’s what he taught me. Because before I got to Atlanta, I had always felt pretty good. Physically, it was no big deal making a start.
“Sometimes it’s really easy to say, I need another day or two. But in Atlanta, we pitched. I think Tommy led the way with that. He showed everybody that if you go out there, if you could throw the ball over the plate you had a chance to win, no matter how bad you felt. That’s probably one of the biggest things I learned from Glav, was how to compete when you’re not feeling your best.”
On pitch movement: “I was just very fortunate. When I was 15 or 16 years old, I had a pitching coach, Ralph Medar, who taught me that movement was more important than velocity. And I believed him. I don’t know why I believed him, but I believed him. At a young age, he taught me about movement and started learning how to pitch. I wasn’t learning how to throw; I threw hard enough. But I learned that movement was more important than velocity, and changing speeds was more important than velocity, and location was more important than velocity…. It just kind of went from there.”
On what he’d think about being called the Greatest Living Pitcher, after someone mentioned to him that Joe DiMaggio used to request that he [DiMaggio] be referred to as the Greatest Living Ballplayer in his latter years before he died:
“Well, it’d be a nice compliment. I’m very proud of what I did on the baseball field, but I never really considerd myself as things like that. I like to think I’m the same person I was 20 years ago. Just a few things have changed. But as far as how I think of myself, I don’t think of myself that way.”
On what he’d do to improve the game if he were King of Baseball for a day:
“There’s really not a lot you can do to improve it. The game is almost perfect the way it is. I think this game’s played now the way it was played 100 years ago. I think that’s the beauty of it. It might just be a little faster, that’s about it. But I think the game itself, there’s really nothing wrong with it. Players are probably better now than they were before, but they’ll probably be better in 20 years than they are now. That’s just the way it is. It’s hard to change something that’s pretty close to perfect.
His thoughts about the Hall of Fame in five years: I don’t really have any thoughts right now at this moment. There’s a lot of good players in there. I don’t really have any thoughts. I know my son’s got a tournament there [in Cooperstown, N.Y.] next summer. I’m looking forward to going there to watch him play, and hopefully get a chance to look around.”
On one of the secrets of his success; “I would like to think my wife. Part of why I had so much success on the field was, for me, everything was very simple for me at home. If I got home late after a road trip, I was allowed to sleep in. On days I was pitching, I was left alone and had lunch made for me at 2 o’clock before I went to the park. I had everything taken care of me away from the park, so the only thing I had to worry about anything was when I was on the mound. For that I thank you [look at his wife, Kathy, in the front row].
Then Maddux drew laughs when he added that he hoped his wife would continue making him lunch every day for a while.
On what he’ll miss most now that he’s retired: “I’ll miss the game. I’ll miss all of it. I’ll miss pitching. I’ll miss hitting, running the bases. I’ll miss sitting on the bench and trying to get what pitch is coming next and where it’s going to be hit. I’ll miss those kinds of things.
“Obviously I’ll miss the four days off between starts and I’ll miss hanging out with the guys. I really enjoyed playing golf on the road over the years with the guys. That made it even more enjoyable when you’d go to the ballpark, because you’d have a break from just sitting in your hotel room all day waiting for the game to start.
“I’ll miss the plane flights, and the poker games on the flights. That was fun. Just hanging out with the guys. Spring training was always fun. Spring training, to me, was a blast. Spring training is where you get to go and do baseball stuff. Down in Orlando we’d spend a lot of time going to amusement parks with the family, taking the kids to do all that.
“So many things that go in baseball have nothing to do with the first through ninth innings that I’ll miss. And I’m sure as time goes by, I’ll miss them even more.”
His closing remarks at the news conference: “Again, I just want to say thank you for everything. The game has given me and my family so much, that I just want to say thank you. And the one thing I hope is, I hope that I gave back. I played the game the way I want my teammates to play it. Again, thank you for everything. I’ll miss it. Thanks you.”
Me, I’ll really miss Greg Maddux. The game will miss him. Everything about him. Bet you all feel the same.
OK, back to the meetings: We’re in a bit of a holding pattern regarding the pitching pursuit, waiting for an A.J. Burnett decision. But I am hearing things that lead me to think that the free agent right-hander might make a decision this week and not necessarily wait for CC Sabathia to decide first.
We’ll see about that. I’d guess it’ll take a guaranteed five-year offer from the Braves to make that happen, for otherwise A.J. seems more likely to wait and see if Sabathia spurns the Yankees and Brian Cashman decided to throw more money and a guaranteed fifth year at A.J. in order to make sure the Yanks aren’t shut out by the few aces available.
The Braves last week offered A.J. a four-year deal with a fifth-year option, worth at least $15 mill annually. They’ve given off signals that they would make that fifth-year guaranteed if that’s absolutely necessary to get Burnett signed, but they obviously would prefer to avoid that, given his DL stints for elbow and shoulder soreness in the past.
Insurers generally only insure contracts for three years, and clubs have to renew the policy after that period, provided the player is healthy. If a pitcher got hurt in, say, the third year of a five-year guaranteed deal worth $15 mill annually, well, that would be a potentially big blow for a team that has any sort of payroll restrictions (i.e., probably any team not named the Yankees).
The power-bat pursuit: Though Frank Wren has indicated the Braves might not make a deal for a run-producing outfielder until spring training or even during the season, there are indications they could get it done before then with a Cardinals outfielder not named Ludwick.
How does Rick Ankiel sound? The former lefty pitcher-turned-center fielder is available, and the Cardinals are said to prefer trading him instead of Ludwick because Ludwick will still be cheap for several more years. Braves would probably have to give up at least Kelly Johnson to get Ludwck, and the Cardinals might even demand Yunel Escobar.
But not for Ankiel, who’s eligible for free agency after the 2009 season, and a Scott Boras client the Cardinals probably have no confidence they could afford to re-sign.
The Braves might prefer Ankiel over Ludwick anyway, since Ludwick’s 37-homer, 113-RBI season in 2008 was far and away his career best, and at age 29. The Braves, like other teams, have questions as to whether Ludwick could reasonably be expected to replicate that sort of performance, given that his previous bests in an injury-slowed big-league career were 14 homers and 52 RBI in 2007.
Ankiel has 36 homers and 110 RBI in 584 at-bats over two seasons since returning to the majors as an outfielder, after his promising pitching career went awry several years ago when he could no longer throw strikes consistently.
There is plenty of reason to believe Ankiel will continue developing as a hitter after batting .264 with 25 homers and 71 RBI in 120 games last season. And the other important thing that separates him from most available outfielders: He is strong defensively, in center and right field (and presumably in left, though he’s played that the least for St. Louis).
But he’s eligible for free agency after the upcoming season, which is why the Cardinals, looking for pitching in return, don’t really expect to get a promising starter for Ankiel. Maybe that take a proven young reliever as the principle in a deal?
The Braves could pencil in Ankiel for CF or LF in 2009, and could have him or Jordan Schafer ready to play RF if, for whatever reason, Jeff Francoeur doesn’t bounce back from his poor 2008 season and gets dealt eventually.
Cox said Monday that he thinks Francoeur will bounce back and drive in 100 runs, etc. But hey, what else is he going to say?
Frank Wren reiterated Monday that team officials see LF Matt Diaz fitting on the Braves in some capacity.
Thinking aloud here, maybe Ankiel could move between a couple of outfield positions and Diaz could play a lot against lefties (Ankiel hit .224 with a .716 OPS against lefties, compared to .279 with an .891 OPS against righties).
The Braves continue to express interest in Seattle free agent corner outfielder Raul Ibanez, 36, a .286 career hitter with more than 20 homers in each of the past four seasons, 30-plus doubles for seven straight seasons, and 338 RBI in the past three seasons.
Problem is, Ibanez is getting plenty of other interest from some big-market teams, and could end up commanding a deal as long as three years and for perhaps $10 mill or more annually. That’s more years and dollars than the Braves want to pay for a merely serviceable defensive player of his age.
Also hearing Brewers shortstop J.J. Hardy and free agent Rafael Furcal still being mentioned in connection with the Braves again, which leads me to believe the Braves are indeed still at least talking to teams interested in Escobar or deals that might possibly include him.
(Personally, I’d trade him for nothing short of an ace pitcher.)
And though I’ve heard nothing about them revisiting talks for Jake Peavy, wouldn’t surprise me if Padres GM Kevin Towers came knocking at Frank Wren’s door (or at least ringing his cell) if things stay stalled with other teams that seem to be getting colder on Peavy all the time.
One way or another, I’m really starting to get a feeling that Escobar could be traded this winter.
Blogmeister addendum: Right after I wrote that last sentence about Escobar, Cox provided this quote that could certainly be viewed as a reason to believe the Braves won’t trade Escobar:
“I think he’s a special talent, and I certainly want him on our team,” Cox said. “He’s as good a shortstop as we’ve ever had here. He can do so much. He’s going to hit right at .300, I think, ever year. He’s got the type of mechanics that allows me to say that. He stays inside the ball so well, and he’s an extremely gifted shortstop. A pair of the best hands you’d ever see, and he’s got a great arm. And he’s strong. If he wants to, he could hit in the 20s [home runs].”
”THE HIGHWAYMAN” by Jimmy Webb
I was a highwayman
Along the coach roads I did ride
With sword and pistol by my side
Many a young maid lost her baubles to my trade
Many a soldier shed his life blood on my blade
The bastards hung me in the spring of ‘25
But I am still alive
I was a sailor
I was born upon the tide
And with the sea I did abide
I sailed a schooner ‘round the horn to Mexico
I went aloft to furl the mainsail in a blow
And when the yards broke off they said that I got killed
But I am living still
I was a dam builder
Across the river deep and wide
Where steel and water did collide
A place called Boulder on the wild Colorado
I slipped and fell into the wet concrete below
They buried me in that great tomb that knows no sound
But I am still around.
I’ll always be around, and around, and around, and around, and around…
I’ll fly a starship
Across the Universe divide
And when I reach the other side
I’ll find a place to rest my spirit if I can
Perhaps I may become a highwayman again
Or I may simply be a single drop of rain
But I will remain
And I’ll be back again
and again, and again, and again, and again….
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Braves await decision from A.J.
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Now what?
Well, we take a deep breath and wait.
The Braves made the first big offer to A.J. Burnett, a four-year deal with a fifth-year option and salaries that average out to about $15 mill per season if the deal is maximized by the vesting option.
Now, the Braves can’t do much else on the pitching-ace front until they get an answer from Burnett, who was expected to get an offer from the Yankees by today, if he doesn’t have one already.
At noon today I talked on the phone with A.J.’s agent, Darek Braunecker, who said he planned to meet with teams during the Winter Meetings that start Monday in Las Vegas.
He wouldn’t say how many offers had been made or how many teams were still involved, but did reiterate the Braves are “still squarely in the mix. We’ll continue dialogue with them at the appropriate time…. We’re not commenting on offers. Anything related to offers, we’re refraining from commenting on.
“Numerous offers, that’s the best way to characterize it… I can’t tell you that a decision is imminent, but we are progressing. We’re advancing in the process.”
We do know all the offers are from teams within driving distance of Burnett’s suburban Baltimore home. His wife, who is from that area, doesn’t fly and it was worked into his Toronto contract that the Blue Jays provided first-class ground transportation for his wife to make eight trips per season.
The first time Burnett went through free agency, there were more than 20 teams interested. This time he and his agent eliminated a lot of teams right off the bat because of location.
Hey, if you’re going to limit your market, sure is nice to have teams in New York, Philly, Baltimore, Toronto and Atlanta within reasonable driving distance of either your suburban Baltimore home and/or Burnett’s hometown of North Little Rock. A few of those teams are known to spend a little coinage.
The Yankees, Phillies, Orioles and Blue Jays were all expected to compete with the Braves for Burnett’s services, and some in the industry believe the Braves’ big initial offer put them alongside the Yankees in the lead in this potential sweepstakes (the Yankees have to be considered a front-seat occupant, regardless, simply because at any time they could blow away the Braves’ offer if they wanted to).
Braunecker said don’t believe what some have written about Toronto being “out of it” with Burnett after comments made Thursday by the Blue Jays GM indicating they believe they’re going to lose him to another team.
“Toronto is not out of it,” Braunecker said emphatically. “They may be a little surprised by where the market stands today versus where they anticipated it being a month ago, but by no means are they out of it. Fact of matter is, it’s a place that A.J. loved, and they’ve indicated to us they’ll be as creative as can [contract-wise] to bring him back.”
Will Burnett’s decision come down to money alone? Would Burnett and his agent consider the difference in cost of living between New York and Atlanta, or just take the highest offer?
We don’t know. But we do know Burnett wants to go to a team that has a chance to contend, and his agent said the Braves helped themselves in that regard with the trade this week for durable veteran starter Javier Vazquez.
“No question about it,” Braunecker said. “To me, for any free agent who believes winning is important, the Atlanta Braves should become a more appealing club now, because I think Javier Vazquez makes them a better club. That’s my personal opinion, and A.J. would echo those same sentiments. By all means, [Atlanta] is a more appealing situation today than it was two days ago.”
But what if Philly were to step up with a similar offer? One could certainly argue the Phillies are better equipped to win the East in ’09 than the Braves.
Then again, the Phillies might not be willing to pay anywhere near what the Braves offered for Burnett, which, if people will consider closely, is really a lot of money and years for a pitcher who’d never won more than 12 games before this season, a pitcher who’s missed time for elbow surgery, shoulder soreness and other injuries, and whose big seasons were the ones just before free agency.
(By the way, I believe the guaranteed years of the deal probably have higher average annual salaries than the option year, but am not certain of that. But it would explain why the first four years could average out to close to $16 mill per, not $15 mill.)
The Braves, frankly, are in desperate need of an ace. The World Champion Phillies are not. Burnett, when healthy like he was in 2008, is absolutely an overpowering ace.
So, the Braves wait.
They can’t exactly make a trade or a free-agent offer for a lesser pitcher, a guy not really an ace but the closest they might get after A.J., until they hear from A.J., right?
Let’s face it, you don’t want to sign Jon Garland and then find out that Burnett was about to say “yes” to your offer.
Will Burnett sign this weekend? Probably not. During next week’s Winter Meetings in Vegas? Perhaps. But it might take even longer than that.
Don’t know if it’ll be come full-fledged bidding war, but if the Yankees believe there’s a good chance they might lose out on CC Sabathia or Derek Lowe, then I’d expect Brian Cashman to step up and open the Yankee vault for Burnett.
When I asked a Yankees scout yesterday if he thought their team could afford both CC and A.J., he said, “Probably.” But at the same time, he pointed out how surprised he was that the Yankees hadn’t offered arbitration to Bobby Abreu, and how that made it clear to him that this horrendous economy was even having some effect on the
So the Braves give A.J. time to decide. No deadlines. And, of course, keep working the phones with other teams and player agents (and meeting face-to-face with them next week in Vegas) to explore other possibilities, letting other free agents know they’re interested (without making an offer yet) and talking to other teams about what it might take to get this pitcher or that hitter.
Lot of people ask me if the Braves might get back in the Jake Peavy negotiations. I still don’t think the door is as closed on those talks as the Braves say publicly, but I’ll take them at their word when they say there have been no discussions in more than three weeks.
And no, the Padres didn’t call the Braves before or after they traded shortstop Khalil Greeen to St. Louis, to see if Atlanta would revisit the last offer the Braves made for Peavy that included Yunel Escobar as the centerpiece.
The Braves say the Greene matter has no effect at all, no impact, on them or their offseason plans. In other words, they say it didn’t stoke the embers on the Peavy trade.
Again, I’m not certain that couldn’t change at any moment with a call from Padres GM Kevin Towers, who hasn’t had one of the more resoundingly successful offseason in GM history, for sure, and could certainly use a face-saving move about right now.
Oh, yes, a hitter: Amid all the pitching-centric news with the Braves, they continue to search for a power-hitting outfielder who fits their needs, a guy who doesn’t necessarily have to hit 40 home runs but does have to be a run-producer and be able to play adequate defense, and preferably better than adequate (but that’s admittedly tough to find).
They’ll take a guy who hits 20-25 homers if he’s a run-producer, a guy who scores runs and drives in a lot of runs. Even though they got a pathetic 27 homers from their outfield last year, the Braves haven’t made home runs the single most important stat they’re looking for in an outfielder.
But the guy does have to have power. And there aren’t a bevy of such players available who aren’t either owed a ton of money, are incapable of playing respectable defense, or looking to break the bank with long-term contracts.
“I don’t know,” Wren said yesterday, when I asked him about the prospects of getting that hitter anytime soon. “The tough part is there’s a very limited number of them.
“Pitching’s most important, but we do need another run-producing bat. It may come down to something that happens even during spring training or during the season. We’re focused on trying to do something obviously before that and putting our team together, but we’re not going to do something just for the sake of doing something.”
They could trade Kelly Johnson for St. Louis outfielder Ryan Ludwick, whose 37-homer season in 2008 contrasted sharply with his injury-plagued past seasons. He’s a gamble, and the Braves are reluctant to trade Johnson, who they really believe can be a well-above-average second baseman defensively, and one of the best hitting second basemen in all of baseball.
But if they don’t think they can get a power bat anywhere else, well, it wouldn’t surprise me if they pull the trigger on that deal, particularly if the Cardinals sweeten the pot just a bit with another young player or prospect.
Martin Prado will never be the hitter Johnson is, but he’s a solid defensive second baseman and a good line-drive hitter who plays the game the right way, has plenty of versatility, and could probably hold down the fort at second base for a season, or until the Braves could get a better player there.
Diversions: Couple of fine Texan singer-songwriters playing Atlanta in the next week, the venerable Delbert McClinton on Saturdy at Variety Playhouse and talented young troubadour Hayes Carll on Thursday at the Five Spot, just a couple hundred feet away from Variety and an intimate little joint that should be a great place to see Carll. Hopefully I’m back from Vegas on Thursday in time to make it out to that one.
The Shield finale: The latest issue of Entertainment Weekly had a brief Q&A with the creator of the sensational TV show The Shield, regarding a few points in the recent series finale. Since it’s stuff we discussed here with a bunch of big fans of the show (myself included) after the finale aired, I thought I’d give you two of the questions and answers that were particularly pertinent to our blog discussions.
EW interviewer: I understand Shane committing suicide, but did he have to take wife Mara and son Jackson with him?
Shawn Ryan: “To us, it made sense. It wasn’t fun to write. But in terms of the overall arc of the show, it felt like the place it should go.
EW interviewer: At the end, Vic left his desk job with his gun. Where was he racing off to?
Shawn Ryan: “We’ve always viewed Vic as a shark. He’s someone who, in order to survive, has to move forward. Is he going to search for his kids? Is he going to pursue his own sort of police work on his own time? Is he going to do something postal? I don’t know. But I do think the shark swims forward.”
(Me: Well said, regarding Vic. Love the analogy.)
Now, a tune: This one of my favorites from a brilliant, criminally underrated blues/rock singer-songwriter and guitarist who put out a rich body of work before he died of lung cancer at age 46 in 2005.
“LIVING WITH THE LAW” by Chris Whitley
Brother runnin’ powder money
Daddy’s somewhere on a drunk
In the hours, after washing
I do my dreaming with a gun
Well I come down from the country
Find a lesson in the draw
There ain’t no secrets in the city
It’s hard living with the law
They got machines, mama I can’t figure
They got a romance made for doing time
Send me out child, running outside
Out along a world of crime
Gonna swing my scythe, got a hand upon the handle
Gonna shade my children ways I understand
Milk the trigger, kill the hunger
Staring down this broken land
So fetch on up your greasy apron
Spread your lover in the straw
Hear me baby, I’m nearly crazy
It’s hard living with the law
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What of the Vazquez trade? I think….
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
I’ve known aces. Aces have been friends of mine (OK, that’s a stretch). And you, Javier Vazquez, are no ace.
That said, Vazquez is a definite middle-rotation upgrade for a Braves team that didn’t have any pitcher work 200 innings last season and had only one (Jair Jurrjens) work as many as 150 innings as a starter.
Say what you (or Ozzie Guillen) will about Vazquez — that he’s soft, that he’s not a big-game pitcher, etc. — but he is a workhorse who’s as much of a lock as anyone in baseball to give you 200 innings, 190 or more strikeouts and double-digit wins, year after year after year.
And if the Braves land an ace of the A.J. Burnett or Jake Peavy ilk, then this rotation looks pretty solid with one of them at the top and Jair Jurrjens and Vazquez in the 2-3 slots in either order, particularly if top-rated pitching prospect Tommy Hanson is in the back of the rotation by mid-summer, which I think he will be (and it won’t surprise me if he makes it out of spring training).
Vazquez, who’s getting his physical as I write this and is expected to be introduced at a Thursady morning press conference at Turner Field.
He got in Guillen’s doghouse last year with the Sox and Ozzie said he couldn’t trust Vazquez in a big game. Hey, it happens. A few guys, including a pitcher or two I can think if, have gotten in the Braves’ doghouse, it’s just that Leo Mazzone or Bobby Cox (or most other managers or pitching coaches) would never throw them under the bus by naming them publicly.
We like Ozzie a lot, but hey, he can be a bit brutal on a player now and then. That’s how he rolls.
But anyway, like I said, as long as Braves and Braves fans aren’t expecting Vazquez to be an ace, things will be fine (and yes, I know that $11.5 mill each of the next two seasons might indicate he should be an ace to some of you, but you might want to look closer at what proven pitchers are getting these days. It’s actually not out of line for a guy who’s durable and can win at least 10-12 games and perhaps 15-18 with good run support and a solid bullpen.
And Braves officials aren’t expecting him to be an ace, though they do believe that Vazquez will benefit greatly from getting out of the White Sox’ hitter-friendly ballpark and back to the National League, where he broke in with the Montreal Expos and once appeared to be an ace-in-the-making.
In his last three years with the Expos (2001-03), Vazquez was 39-36 with a 3.52 ERA and .245 opponents’ average in 100 starts, piling up 628 strikeouts in 684-2/3 innings in that three-season span.
In five seasons since then, he’s pitched for three teams (Arizona, Yankees, W. Sox) and compiled a 63-61 record and 4.50 ERA with a .257 opponents’ average with 939 strikeouts in 1041-1/3 innings.
In the last three seasons with the Sox, he’s 38-36 with a 4.40 ERA and 77 homers allowed in 627-2/3 innings over 98 starts. Hardly the stuff of aces, though certainly consistent with the innings and strikeouts.
Since I’m pressed for time here (got to get back down to the office downtown for another training class), I’ll reiterate what I said about the trade last night after I learned the details — Vazquez and lefty reliever Boone Logan to the Braves for four young players including mashing catching prospect Tyler Flowers, infielder Brent Lillibridge and a couple of minor leaguers, third baseman Jon Gilmore and promising rookie-league lefty Santos Rodriguez.
As I said last night, I’ve never been a big Vazquez guy, just don’t think he’s a big-game pitcher. But as a No. 3 (that’s where I’d have him, after Jurrjens), I think he’s very solid, a 200-innings, 200-strikeout guy who’s still only 32. Very consistent, solid but not spectacular.
Now, if the Braves had given up Morton or any other solid, advanced pitching prospect, I’d have serious questions about the deal.
But fact of the matter is, they gave up one legit, big-time slugging prospect in Flowers, who was never going to play for the Braves while McCann was here. Lillibridge didn’t impress me in 2008, and I don’t think he’ll be more than a backup/utility type. I hope I’m wrong, as he’s a good dude.
Gilmore was the 33rd overall pick in the 2007 draft, a third baseman who’s a long way from being a major leaguer and not what anyone has called a sure thing.
The young lefty, Rodriguez, just based on his numbers and what Chicago scouts who saw him in instructional league say, could be a real stud eventually. Great arm. So that one could bite the Braves in the butt someday in a few years.
Flowers is the guy, though, that I really think he could end up being a major league power guy. However, he’s probably going to the right league, since he’ll be able to DH if he can’t catch or the Sox decide he’s too big to catch or too much of a hitter to not have DHing in a couple years.
I knew Braves would trade him eventually, but thought they’d move him in a trade for an ace or impact position player later in the year or next season. But when you’re desperate to get two quality pitchers, you’ve got to trade a piece or two you’d prefer to keep, and Braves were/are desperate for two starting pitchers.
They got a good, durable one, not a great one. If they can pull off a deal to get a Burnett or Peavy, they will have accomplished their pitching mission and dramaticaly upgraded a rotation that was a patchwork mess the past two years.
But if they don’t get another, true ace and have to go with Jurrjens and Vazquez at the top of the rotation … well, that would not be good. And I really don’t think that will be the case.
Keep in mind, the Braves have money to spend, and I’m told they are going to make a very competitive offer real soon for Burnett, probably even guarantee the fifth year to lessen the likelihood of him waiting around for one of the teams spurned by CC Sabathia to make him (Burnett) a desperation offer.
The Braves can probably go $15-16 mill a year in a five-year deal for Burnett. They’re in a good position relative to most teams, because with this economy suppressing some expected free-agent salaries, it’s a good time to be a buyer.
Having $40 mill to spend (or whatever the Braves have and are willing to spend) is a little like being a first-time home buyer right now, with a down payment socked away and no home you have to sell before you move in to a new one. The Braves can afford to sign Burnett and also perhaps sign a power-hitting free agent outfielder or trade for one with a big salary.
OK, gotta go now. Just wanted to get this up before yesterday’s blog crashes under the weight of all the trade-driven passionate comments.
We might carry over yesterday’s sidetracked R.E.M. discussion, too.
In fact, yes, I think we’ll do that now:
R.E.M. list, Pt. 2: By popular demand, we follow up our Top 10 list of top IRS-label R.E.M. songs from their 1982-1987 era, with a top dozen from the 20-year Warner Bros. era (1988 to present).
Much as it was next to impossible to pick 10 from the incredibly rich IRS years it was also difficult to limit it to a dozen from the Warner Brothers era. So we went with a baker’s dozen. Once you start going through the albums, you realize there were more great songs there than you might recall.
Feel free to give us your own 13. Here’s mine, in no particular order:
Man on the Moon; What’s the Frequency, Kenneth?; Country Feedback; How the West Was Won and Where It Got Us; Turn You Inside-Out; E-Bow the Letter; Walk Unafraid; Electrolite; All the Way to Reno; Bad Day; Mansized Wreath; Hollow Man; Losing My Religion.
“U.S. STEEL” by Tom Russell
Homestead Pennsylvania, the home of the U.S. Steel
And the men down at the Homestead Works
Are sharing one last meal
Sauerkraut and kilbassa, a dozen beers or more
A hundred years of pouring slab,
They’re closing down the door
And this mill won’t run no more.
There’s silence in the valley, there’s silence in the streets
There’s silence every night here upon these cold white sheets
Were my wife stares out the window with a long and lonely stare
She says “you kill yourself for 30 years but no one seems to care”
You made their railroads rails and bridges, you ran their driving wheels
And the towers of the Empire State are lined with Homestead Steel
The Monongahela valley no longer hears the roar
There is cottonwood and suemacway inside the slab mill door
And this mill won’t run no more.
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Hampton is gone, while Peavy is …
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Come back … no, good riddance … Please stay, we need you … no, please just go.
Does that pretty much summarize the polarizing presence that was Mike Hampton?
While most of his Braves teammates, and apparently a third of our readers, wanted Mike Hampton back, the poll on our AJC.com Braves page indicates that fully two-thirds of voting fans were pleased to see the injury-plagued lefty hit the road.
More than anything else, I think that says something about Hampton’s personality - teammates knew him well, and all of them I talked to really liked having him around, despite the fact he was hurt and/or recovering from surgeries for most of the time for the past three seasons.
Most fans only know what they’ve read or heard about him, that he was a nice guy with a great sense of humor and a body that repeatedly broke down.
I think fans have good reason for being glad Hampton is gone.
Hear me out. In the past I’ve said I hoped he’d be back, but admittedly that was largely for selfish reasons: Folks, Mike Hampton is a great quote and was good for at least one laugh a day — and usually several — with a putdown directed at a teammate or one of the broadcasters or beat writers.
But let’s be honest: What were the chances that Hampton was going to remain as fit and effective in 2009 as he was in the second half of the 2008 season, after it took him nearly three full years between major league starts to get healthy.
To refresh memories: Hampton did not make a start, not a single major league start, between Aug. 19, 2005 and July 26, 2008. Two elbow surgeries and various back, leg and side injuries sidelined him for 35 months.
He was with the Braves for six seasons, and was DL’d for about half of that period.
The Braves wanted him back, but not to fill one of their top-of-the-rotation spots. GM Frank Wren made that clear the day after the regular season ended, when I asked him if Hampton, John Smoltz or Tom Glavine would possibly be one of the two proven, veteran pitcher he sought to add this winter.
No, Wren said. If any or all of those three veterans returned in 2009, they would be in addition to the two frontline pitchers the Braves hoped to land. The Braves weren’t counting on any of the trio to fill a frontline rotation spot, one of the two spots they’d still like to fill in order to slot Jair Jurrjens in the No. 3 position where such a talented-but-young pitcher would ideally fit in a strong starting rotation.
Have things changed since then? Perhaps. The market clearly isn’t what the Braves hoped it might be vis-à-vis the pursuit of two frontline starters. There were only a handful of free agents available who fit the bill or even came close, and there were more than a few teams in pursuit of those limited arms.
One of them is already gone, Ryan Dempster having re-upped with the Cubs.
And he was one of those who “came close” to fitting the bill more than actually fitting it fully, given that, before going 17-6 with a 2.96 ERA in 206-2/3 innings in 2008, five seasons had passed since Dempster started more than 20 games, won more than five or pitched as many as 116 innings (he was hurt or relieving in the interim).
The remaining field includes CC Sabathia, whose price tag puts him out of the Braves’ range (they’re not going to commit approximately one-quarter of their annual payroll to a starting pitcher, even if Sabathia’s the best one available and arguably one of the best three or four starters in the game.)
That leaves some guy named Jake Peavy (you didn’t think we could go another whole blog without talking about him, did you?) and free agents A.J. Burnett and Derek Lowe as reliable front-line starters who are clearly available.
The Braves have inquired about a few other aces - most notably Houston’s Roy Oswalt and San Francisco’s Matt Cain - to see if they might be available, and so far haven’t received favorable replies in those pursuits.
As for Lowe, the market for the 35-year-old innings-eater is lined with deep-pocketed pursuers including the Red Sox, his old team. The Scott Boras client could end up getting a four- or five-year contract worth perhaps than $15 million annually.
Lowe, a Type A free agent who was offered arbitration by the Dodgers, has indicated that going to a winning team is his main priority, a team with a chance to be in the playoffs every year for the length of his contract. If the Red Sox really want him, it’s hard for me to envision another team except possibly the Yankees getting between Lowe and a reunion with Boston.
Those two might be the only ones comfortable spending the kind of dollars it’ll take to sign Lowe, who, let’s face it folks, has a 126-107 career record (and 85 saves) with a 3.75 ERA, very good numbers but hardly world-beater stuff.
We’re talking about a guy who has been more than three games above .500 just once in the past five seasons, when he was 16-8 with a 3.63 ERA for the Dodgers in 2006. He’s 26-25 over the past two seasons, albeit with a strong 3.24 ERA in 2008.
In Lowe’s last season with the Red Sox in 2004, he was 14-12 with a 5.42 ERA. And in his first with the Dodgers in 2005, he was 12-15 with a 3.61 ERA and allowed 28 homers.
Reliable, undoubtedly (after Tom Glavine got hurt last year, it left Lowe as the only active major league pitcher with 10-plus seasons and no DL stints). But if you’re the Braves, is this the the guy you want to give the largest contract you ever gave a pitcher?
Probably not, which is probably why we’ve heard no indications they’re actively pursuing him, despite the near-unanimous view expressed by Braves players at the end of last season that Lowe was the guy, or one of the two or three, the Braves should go after hardest.
That was probably a reflection both of the players’ frustrations over the litany of injuries that have left the Braves’ rotation a patchwork unit for the past few seasons, and of the fondness that most players have for Lowe. They wanted a guy they could count on for 200 innings, and hey, he’s a good dude, too.
But do you throw that kind of money at Lowe, who’ll be 36 in June, has never struck out 150 batters, and hasn’t won more than 16 games since his back-to-back seasons of 21-8 and 17-7 in 2002-03. Or do you cross your fingers and throw similar money at Burnett, who’ll be 32 in January and went 18-10 with an AL-leading 231 strikeouts in 221-1/3 innings last season after missing starts for shoulder and elbow issues the previous two seasons?
I’m hearing the Braves are choosing the latter, in part because they have a much better shot at landing Burnett than Lowe, and partly because they want a power arm who can dominate opponents to be the guy at the top of a rotation that includes budding stalwart Jair Jurrjens and, well, fill in the blanks.
The Braves made a strong push for Jake Peavy that lasted about six weeks, many hours spent talking to Padres GM Kevin Towers about what it would take to get the 2007 Cy Young Award winner and Alabama native. But those talks stalled and the Braves announced they were pulling out three weeks ago.
There have been no discussions between the parties since, though Towers continues to discuss openly why he thinks Peavy might not go to the Braves — their old policy against no-trade-clauses, for one thing — and about how close the Braves and Padres seemed to be in a deal, etc.
To many this is a sign that Towers sees what others do, that the Braves’ four-player offer, including Yunel Escobar and center-field prospect Gorkys Hernandez, is a far better deal than he’s been offered by any other team for Peavy, who is signed to a reasonable contract over the next four or five years, but who comes with some concerns about his elbow and violent delivery, not to mention the questions starting to arise about his silence and inaccessibility to reporters and others all winter while his future has been discussed at length and while rumors fly that he likes this team, doesn’t like that one, might not like the Braves anymore, etc.
Do I think the Peavy-Braves thing is dead? No, but I’m not as confident as I was a few weeks ago that the Braves and Padres would get the deal done. The ham-fisted way that this thing has been handled has undoubtedly added obstacles to what should have been a relatively easy deal to get done.
From what I hear, Towers kept coming back to the table asking for more, and the Braves got tired of waiting and trying to satisfy his demands, when it didn’t seem that any other team was offering a package that would justify the Braves having to sweeten their own offer.
The Braves have serious need for pitching, and knew that if they waited and waited for Towers and Peavy as the Winter Meeting approached, they might miss out on one or more of the few other pitchers available, particularly after Dempster re-upped with the Cubs, taking that option off the board.
They’re in heavily in the Burnett sweepstakes, and the Braves have kicked the tires on other, lesser pitchers (remember, they still want to add two starters to add to the top half of the rotation if at all possible, and that never included Hampton, Smoltz or Glavine).
Oh, and that brings us back around to Hampton, and the personality thing that I was getting at when I begin this rambling monologue.
Just as personality is a reason that so many Braves want Lowe - they talk to him, they talk to others who know him, and they all get the impression he’s a great dude - it also colored their desire to bring back Hampton, just as it made many of us in the media hope the Braves would have a spot for him.
But facts are facts, and the prospect of going through another injury-plagued season with Hampton — the whole he’s hurt, he’s rehabbing, he’s got one more rehab start possibly, blah blah blah — was arguably not worth the potential of getting a solid six or seven innings out of him most starts if he was healthy.
Just consider this: The Braves paid him $48.5 million over six seasons, during which he made 85 starts and went 35-24 with a 4.10 ERA in 509-2/3 innings.
That works out to about $570,000 per start, $1.39 million per win, $95,160 per inning, although insurance paid portions of his salary while he was on the DL.
Hampton made $84.5 million during that six-year stretch, the rest paid by the Colorado Rockies and Florida Marlins as part of the three-team trade that brought him to Atlanta in November 2002, including a $6 million buyout of a 2009 option. That’s $84.5 million for 85 starts and a whole lot of rehab.
He signed a then-record eight-year, $121 million contract with Colorado before the 2001 season, and was traded after two disappointing seasons.
After going 63-31 with a 3.30 ERA in 133 starts over the four seasons before he signed the huge contract, Hampton went 56-52 with a 4.81 ERA in 147 starts during the eight-year deal. Or, about $910,000 per start for the past eight years.
While I know plenty of folks out there are skeptical — hey, my e-mail makes that clear — of his supposed desire to be closer to his kids as a reason he took the Houston offer, keep in mind he’s going through a divorce and the kids are going to be with their mother in Arizona. Moving them to Atlanta: Not an option.
The Diamonbacks didn’t want him, or he’d have gone there. And, let’s face it, Hampton, at 36 and still a North Florida country boy at heart, might also just have felt more comfortable in Houston, around his old buddies including Craig Biggio and Jeff Bagwell, who still live out there.
Besides, when you’ve made $121 million, even if you’re going to lose a lot of that in a divorce, you’ve probably still got plenty in the bank to make it easy to take a little less to pitch for one team (Astros) than was offered by another (Braves).
I was assured by two people close to the situation that the Braves actually offered more in a one-year proposal than the Astros, who are giving him a $2 mill contract with incentives that could add another $2 mill to the total if he makes enough starts.
But in the end, it didn’t matter. Hampton was more comfortable with Houston.
C’est la vie. Let’s just not make it out as though that puts a huge blow in the Braves’ offseason plans. They made it clear from the start that, whether or not he returned, he was not going to be one of the two pitchers they hoped to land this winter. He was going to be a back-of-the-rotation guy.
Those guys are important, particularly for a team that’s been undercut by its injury-plagued rotations for the past couple of seasons.
But Hampton was not going to make or break the season.
And as for any quaint notion of “loyalty,” on the part of a player and/or team, people, you should all know by now you’re just setting yourself up for repeated disappointment if you even remotely expect it in this day and age. Some might talk about it, but when it comes down to making a decision … well, we’ll leave it at that.
It’s a two-way street, and these days neither lane is traveled very often at all.
Not getting Hampton wasn’t a season-maker, not at all. But not getting a Peavy, Burnett or Lowe, someone of that ilk … now that’s the kind of thing that can definitely make or break a season.
Those who keep asking about the likes of Ben Sheets and Randy Johnson, keep in mind that Sheets is a gifted pitcher whose injury history makes him too unreliable to give a big contract as a No. 1 starter (he never won more than 12 games before this season), and Big Unit has serious back issues that would seem to make him a bad fit for Frank Wren’s plan to move forward with a reliable ace for the next several years or more.
Also, and we can discuss this more in the comments below, not adding any power to the outfield, is something elose that could seriously undermine the Braves’ chances in 2009. Which is why they continue quietly pushing to add a power bat, including some trade discussions we’ve heard about (Ryan Ludwick, possibly Jermaine Dye) and plenty we have not.
At next week’s Winter Meetings in Las Vegas, I would anticipate things starting to become clearer, dominoes beginning to fall, for the Braves and around baseball in general.
Now, just a few other things:
Rickey likes Rickey in HOF: Got my Hall of Fame ballot sitting here (I became eligible to vote four years ago after my 10th year in the BBWAA, but the AJC doesn’t permit us to vote), and Rickey Henderson jumps off the page. His first year on ballot, and he’s sure to get in right away.
Among the holdovers from last year’s ballot, I’m sure Jim Rice will finally make it in this year. He was named on 392 ballots (72.2 percent) last year, just 16 votes shy of the 75 percent required for election.
It’s Rice’s 15th and final time on the ballot this year.
Folks, while we all have a sentimental spot for Dale Murphy and can make a decent case for his selection to the Hall (he’s a long way from getting there), the case for Rice is far, far stronger.
The longtime Boston Red Sox publicist Dick Bresciani has made the case for Rice for years. Among the high points: Rice ranked among the top five in American League MVP voting in 1975, ‘77, ‘78, ‘79, ‘83, and ’86, the only player to among the top five in AL voting at least five times between 1963-2005.
He is one of only 16 ever to place among the top five in MVP voting at least six times. Of the 12 Hall-eligible players on that list, 11 are in Cooperstown, including eight elected on the first ballot. Rice is the lone exception.
Diversions: The Pogues, with their brilliant original lineup including Shane MacGowan (like Keith Richards, he’s apparently impervious) is set to play the Tabernacle in Atlanta on March 9. One of the few bands among my favorites that I’ve never seen, since they so rarely toured the United States…. By the way, Ray Davies is playing a solo show tonight at Variety Playhouse, but I’d like to get over to The EARL tonight to see this intriguing new band O’Death (I know, sensational name).
I meant to ask before, was anyone who reads this blog at the Finest Worksongs REM tribute by Athens bands in September 2006, at the 40-Watt Club in Athens? I’ve been playing the CD from that show, and particularly dig Patterson Hood’s cover of “Second Guessing” and the intro story about first seeing R.E.M. in Oxford, Miss. Modern Skirts’ cover of “Perfect Circle” is also outstanding.
My early Oscar pick for Best Actor: Sean Penn in Milk. Remarkable. But I hear that a surprising nominee could be Mickey Rourke as a washed-up wrestler in the soon-to-be-released The Wrestler. Seriously.
R.E.M. list, Pt. 2: By popular demand, we follow up our Top 10 list of top IRS-label R.E.M. songs from their 1982-1987 era, with a top dozen from the 20-year Warner Bros. era (1988 to present).
Much as it was next to impossible to pick 10 from the incredibly rich IRS years it was also difficult to limit it to a dozen from the Warner Brothers era. So we went with a baker’s dozen. Once you start going through the albums, you realize there were more great songs there than you might recall.
Feel free to give us your own 13. Here’s mine, in no particular order:
Man on the Moon; What’s the Frequency, Kenneth?; Country Feedback; How the West Was Won and Where It Got Us; Turn You Inside-Out; E-Bow the Letter; Walk Unafraid; Electrolite; All the Way to Reno; Bad Day; Mansized Wreath; Hollow Man; Losing My Religion.
OK, a tune to close: To finish this rambling essay, let’s go to the well that is Waits:
“BLACK WINGS” by Tom Waits
Take an eye for an eye
Take a tooth for a tooth
Just like they say in the Bible
Never leave a trace or forget a face
Of any man at the table
When the moon is a cold chiseled dagger
Sharp enough to draw blood from a stone
He rides through your dreams on a coach
And horses and the fence posts
In the midnight look like bones
Well they’ve stopped trying to hold him
With mortar, stone and chain
He broke out of every prison
Boots mount the staircase
The door is flung back open
He’s not there for he has risen
He’s not there for he has risen
Well he once killed a man with a guitar string
He’s been seen at the table with kings
Well he once saved a baby from drowning
There are those who say beneath his coat there are wings
Some say they fear him
Others admire him
Because he steals his promise
One look in his eye
Everyone denies
Ever having met him
Ever having met him
He can turn himself into a stranger
Well they broke a lot of canes on his hide
He was born away in a cornfield
A fever beats in his head like a drum inside
Some say they fear him
Others admire him
Because he steals his promise
One look in his eye
Everyone denies
Ever having met him
Ever having met him
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