AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2008 > December > 18
Thursday, December 18, 2008
Time for Braves to reassess?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
It’s 70 degrees with high humidity here in Atlanta one week before Christmas, which somehow seems appropriate weather for this end-is-near sort of vibe around the ol’ Braves/MIB blog the past couple of days.
Hey, just so we’re clear, I don’t blame many of you for feeling quite concerned and upset about the way this offseason has gone thus far, though the cataclysmic characterization of things by some here might be going a bit overboard.
Anyway, what are the Braves to do? Well, believe it or not, there still is time to make significant moves, especially for a team that has a little (or lot) more money to spend than most other teams not based in New York or L.A.
And folks, don’t think that this economy isn’t going to affect some of the remaining free agents. Prices are coming down in January, and the Braves have money to spend. So that’s the “silver lining” in this mess that’s occurred so far — they haven’t committed much money to newcomers, so the Braves still have plenty to spend on what could be some relative bargains.
That said, it would seem that if the Braves are still set on contending in 2009, it would appear they’re going to have to change course on a few guys that they previously had little if any interest in. Derek Lowe and Ben Sheets being the ones that come to mind among pitchers, and Jermaine Dye among hitters.
Among hitters, I just don’t think the Braves have any desire to give a three-year or whatever contract to a poor defensive outfielder like Pat Burrell or Adam Dunn. Not that they couldn’t use the homers (they obviously could), but I don’t think they want to go long-term with a guy who’d block one of the younger outfielders a year or two from now, namely Jason Heyward, their top position-player prospect.
What if, just what if, Francoeur were to get his career back on track in 2009? Then a year or two from now, when Jordan Schafer or Gorkys Hernandez is in CF and Francoeur’s a fan-favorite again in RF, do you just assume you’d be able to shed the salary of a Burrell or Dunn and open a spot for Heyward?
If the Braves are thinking long-term (and they are), they’ve got to plan accordingly, to have room for the prospects they’re grooming now in a farm system is back to a healthy state with a lot of legit prospects who’ll be in the upper tiers this year, not a farm system where most of the best prospects are in rookie or A-ball the way they were a year or two ago after the Teixeira trade.
Heyward and Hanson might be the most talented homegrown prospects in the Braves’ system since Andruw Jones, and the Braves are going to make sure the path is not blocked for these guys and probably a few other top prospects.
So what to do for a bat? There are always trades we don’t get wind of beforehand, guys we aren’t aware are being shopped by other teams. The Braves have had talks with the Cardinals about Rick Ankiel and, before that, about Ryan Ludwick. I think the Ludwick stuff is dead, but Ankiel is still out there.
There are others, too, that are known to be on the block. But I keep coming back to Dye in recent days. Because, despite the Braves’ lack of interest previously this winter, he does make a lot of sense in their current situation.
He’s owed $11.5 mill in 2009, with a $12 mill mutal option for 2010 that includes a $1 mill buyout. He ain’t cheap, but hey, despite a lot of nagging injuries, he’s still had over 500 at-bats in five consecutive seasons while averaging about 33 homers homers and 110 RBI that span.
Thirty-three homers? That’s six more than all Braves outfielders combined in 2008. I must say, the longer I look at his numbers and contract, the more I don’t understand why the Braves don’t push hard to get him in a trade.
Getting back to Lowe: An assistant to uberagent Scott Boras said at the Winter Meetings that the Braves had called about Lowe a while back, so it probably was never the “zero interest” that some reports have claimed the Braves had in Lowe.
And now that he’s the only free agent left who could be called a durable ace, the Braves have to decide if getting an ace is an utmost priority. Go after him, roll the dice on Sheets, or pull off a trade where it’s looked like they couldn’t before, for Jake Peavy or Zack Greinke or someone a cut below that.
That, or go forward hoping that a rotation with mid-rotation guys like Jair Jurrjens and Javier Vazquez can be bolstered by the likes of Charlie Morton and top prospect Tommy Hanson, and, possibly, the Bearded Icon (John Smoltz) and/or Tom Glavine.
But that can be a road filled with peril, relying on unproven or surgically repaired veterans, a road the Braves have had a few bad experiences on in recent years. The injuries of recent seasons are, of course, the reason the Braves have steered clear of Sheets this winter.
The guy struggled mightily in his last few starts in September and couldn’t pitch in the postseason because of a throbbing elbow, so you tell me, is that a risk worth taking? Never won more than 12 games before winning 13 this year, despite immense and undeniable talent.
But with the market so thin for him, at least so far this winter, perhaps the Braves could get him on a two year or one season-plus-option deal. If so, probably would be worth the gamble, if they’re not going after Lowe.
That is, unless the Braves really don’t believe Sheets can help them out, or aren’t confident enough to bring him in and potentially go through more of the injured-pitcher drama they’ve dealt with seemingly every day for two years.
The other thing is, if there’s any sort of thought within the organization — and I’m just thinking aloud here, not anything whatsoever that I’ve heard indicated by any Braves people — that they probably aren’t going to be able to win the division or wild card in 2009 and don’t believe it’s worth giving a big salary to Sheets even for a year because he’s not going to make the difference.
But again, I’ve heard nothing from anyone in the organization to make me believe they’re thinking like that, as though they can’t contend for a playoff berth.
A blog regular sent me this: This guy’s in the mortgage biz, and he said what agent Paul Kinzer allegedly did to the Braves, taking their negotiated offer to the Dodgers to get more from them, was like what he sees in his own industry. He e-mailed me: “I knew they were playing us, btw. When I see Kinzer — and I will see him — he will get a glass of something spilled on him…whoops! :). He did what people do to me. They will take my Good faith and then shop everyone and say can you ‘beat this’.
(I didn’t have the heart to tell him, those in the mortgage business are probably only slightly above agents — or journalists, for that matter — on the public-opinion scale.)
Oliver Perez note: Lot of people here have recommended Braves go after Oliver Perez, despite the huge five-year contract that Boras is looking for. Well, I crunched some numbers today on the lefty Perez, noted Braves-killer that he’s been in recent years.
Get this: Perez is 5-2 with a 3.39 ERA in 10 starts against the Braves since the beginning of the 2006 season.
Against everyone else in that period, he’s 23-28 with a 4.70 ERA in 75 starts.
Folks, if I may say so myself, that’s remarkable.
And here’s one more stunning Perez stat from that three-season period. He’s 1-3 in nine starts against the Phillies despite a 3.38 ERA and .209 opponents’ average. His teams have scored just 2.25 runs per nine innings he’s pitched in those games against the Phillies, including two runs or fewer while he was in all nine games.
That said, 23-28 with a 4.70 ERA in 75 starts against teams other than Atlanta is pretty alarming, no?
Speaking of cow races: Before the other blog crashed, a person with the screen name STH made a comment about cow races. Coincidentally, I had a great experience at a cow-race event this week.
I went to the races outside Atlanta, near Between, Ga., a couple of days ago. If you’re not familiar with it, it’s a private cow track, and there’s a BBQ stand on the edge of the property that has incredible pulled pork, cooked with wood, the real way. And great sweet tea for 50 cents a glass, so sweet it tastes like waffles with syrup. The best.
And the gorgeous girl behind the counter was wearing little cutoff jean-shorts — imagine that, a week before Christmas. But hey, it was nearly 70 degrees. They don’t normally race the cows this time of year, but it’s been so warm they decided to call all neighboring farms and put together a special Christmas Cow Carnival, with races and a few good country bands.
Great music, great BBQ, great cow races. The kind of stuff that drives this blog!
Speaking of good music: Going to post the top-25 CDs list in next couple of days, before I go on vacation. STH, you’ve been warned. By the way, you weren’t kicked off any blog. It just crashed. Sorry to disappoint the martyr in you.
“BACKSTABBERS” by the O’Jays (written by Leon Huff, Gene McFadden, John Whitehead)
What they do
They smile in your face, all the time they wanna take your place the back stabbers
(back stabbers)
They smile in your face, all the time they wanna take your place the back stabbers
(back stabbers)
All you fellows, who have someone, and you really care, yeahhhhhhh, yeah, yeah
Then it’s all of you fellows who better beware, yeah, yeah
Somebody’s out to get your lady
A few of your buddies they sure look shady
Blades are long, clenched tight in their fists
Aimin’ straight at your back
And I don’t think they’ll miss
What they do!
They smile in your face
All the time they want to take your place
The back stabbers (back stabbers)
I keep gettin’ all these visits, from my friends, yeah,
(What they doing to me)
They come to my house again and again and again and again, yeah
So are they there to see my woman
I don’t even be home but they just keep on comin’
What can I do to get on the right track
I wish they’d take some of these knives off my back
What they do
They smile in your face
All the time they want to take your place
The back stabbers (back stabbers)
Low down… dirty…
What they do!
They smile in your face
Smiling faces… smiling faces sometimes
(Back stabbers)
They smile in your face
I don’t need… low down, dirty ba&&ards
(Back stabbers)
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