AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2008 > December > 16
Tuesday, December 16, 2008
Might Furcal move trigger another trade?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
To make their first major move this winter, the Braves called on an old friend. Now, will signing Rafael Furcal — assuming they get that done — trigger another, possibly bigger move?
And hey, if you’re going to have a lineup regular with back issues, I guess you might as well make it a cannon-armed shortstop who’s one of the best leadoff hitters in the league.
That way, it’ll provide us with a guarantee of big stories, either about Rafael Furcal’s triumphant return to Atlanta to win Comeback Player of the Year award and lead the Braves back to the postseason, or about what a questionable move it was to bring him here after his back gives out in spring training, or — and this is probably more likely — something in between those extremes.
We’re assuming you all have heard that the Braves seem to be on the verge of signing Furcal, 31, though they haven’t announced anything and won’t until after he passes a physical Wednesday or Thurday. Considering he had back surgery in July, that’s not the given that it is in most of these cases, but I’d be surprised if he doesn’t pass it.
(There was also word this afternoon from Furcal’s agent, Paul Kinzer, that nothing had been finalized yet, that the Dodgers were still going to have a chance to surpass the Braves offer, though L.A. GM Ned Colletti has indicated three years might be his limit on Furcal; the Dodgers had offered two plus a vesting option. If they don’t surpass the Braves’ offer, I can’t see Furcal turning down chance to return to Atlanta, where he loved everything about his experience here and still has a lot of friends on the team and/or living in the area around his suburban Atlanta home.)
(Oh, and just so you know, his surgery was a procedure similar to the one that Mark Kotsay had in March 2007, and we saw Kotsay play very well early last season for the Braves before going on the DL for more than a month due to a recurrence of back issues.)
So, assuming Furcal passes his physical and signs the three-year deal with a vesting option, then what’s next for the Bravos?
First, let me say it’s a move that gives them an offensive catalyst who sparks a lineup and drives pitchers nuts on the bases, a serious stolen-base threat (provided the back allows it these days). Braves just haven’t had that type of guy since he left.
But are they getting him to play SS or 2B? He’s only played one game at second base in the past six seasons, and my first reaction is, he ain’t ready to move there permanently at age 31, where his cannon arm would seem almost wasted.
On the other hand, a double-play combo of Yunel Escobar and Rafael Furcal would be potentially one of the most athletic, dynamic keystone combos you’d ever see, not to mention perhaps the strongest couple of arms any middle infield ever featured.
But would the Braves really be bringing back Furcal if they planned on keeping Escobar? I have doubts. Sure, they could just trade 2B Kelly Johnson or move him to left field, but given the doubts that Bobby Cox and Frank Wren have expressed about K.J. moving back to the outfield, I don’t know.
Trade Kelly? Yeah, they could, but I haven’t heard him connected to any trade rumors this winter involving a top starting pitcher.
The only reason that makes more sense is because of Furcal’s back and the fact that Martin Prado’s best position is second base. Follow me here: Braves trade Kelly Johnson and play Furcal at second base. Then if he gets hurt, they plug in Prado.
Or they play Furcal at shortstop and Escobar at second base (I wonder how Yunel would greet that move?), then if Furcal gets hurt they move Escobar back to SS and plug Prado in at 2B. In that scenario, the Braves could trade Kelly or move him to left field to be the run-producing OF they haven’t been able to acquire yet this winter.
Oh, the intrigue.
An Escobar trade, though, seems more likely. We’ve all heard the rumors this winter, including the big one that consumed the Braves for more than six weeks, the Jake Peavy debacle … er, negotiations, with the San Diego Padres.
Talked to someone in San Diego late last night who still had doubts whether Peavy would even waive his no-trade clause to come to Atlanta, despite the fact the Alabama native had the Braves on his initial list of five teams he wouldn’t mind being traded to.
Maybe Jake’s reported concerns about going to a team that was Escobar-less and might not be able to compete in the East would be alleviated by the addition of Furcal? I don’t know. With Jake, does anybody know other than his agent?
But as I’ve said all along, the Peavy-to-Braves deal makes too much sense for both teams to let anything other than a Peavy refusal prevent it from happening. I still feel that way, despite Sandy Alderson telling the San Diego Union-Tribune last night that they anticipate having Peavy on opening day.
The other big pitcher the Braves have talked to with Escobar in the mix was Zack Greinke of the Royals, but K.C. seems reluctant to deal him. Still, he’s gone from Kansas City in two years as a free agent, almost certainly. So if Royals GM Dayton Moore might realize a deal for a potential All-Star shortstop (and yes, Escobar is just that, folks, particularly in the American League) who’d be under contractual control for a few more years makes sense.
But we’ll see.
In the meantime, there’s no doubt the Braves just got a lot better in the leadoff role, provided Furcal is healthy.
They haven’t made the postseason for three years since Furcal left (and they made it every season while he was here). He’s hardly the only reason for that, as pitching injuries and budget constraints undermined the Braves.
But the Furcal departure after 2005 left a hole the Braves have had mixed results filling. At times, the likes of Escobar, K.J. and Gregor Blanco did fine for a week here, even a month there, in the leadoff role.
But over the course of a season, none have come close to the leadoff man that Furcal was, with his speed/power combo to go with a healthy OBP and ability to work counts and give hitters behind him a good, early look at a pitcher’s stuff.
Furcal, 31, has a .286 career average and .352 on-base percentage with 83 homers, 788 runs, 418 RBI and 259 stolen bases in 1,150 games.
He played only 37 games during the 2008 season, but had a .357 average with 19 extra-base hits including five homers, 16 RBI and eight stolen bases, along with a .439 OBP, his highest since his .394 in his 2000 Rookie of the Year season.
Furcal played in each of the Dodgers’ first 32 games, and didn’t return until the last week of the season. The Dodgers were 18-14 with him playing in those first 32 games, then lost five of six games and 24 of the next 37 without him.
He hit .285 with a .348 OBP and 100 stolen bases in 453 games in his last three seasons with the Braves through 2005, and hit .293 with a .362 OBP and 70 steals in 333 games over the past three seasons.
He’s posted better numbers than ever in the past three seasons - when he’s played. Problem is that he’s played 138 and 36 games in the past two seasons, after playing 154 or more in four of the previous five seasons.
Here’s how his replacements have fallen short of filling Furcal’s shoes:
Last year with the Dodgers, he hit .353 with a .434 OBP in 139 at-bats as a leadoff man. Juan Pierre was the only Dodger with as many as 200 at-bats in the role, and Pierre hit .261 with a .293 OBP.
(For the Braves in 2008, Escobar hit .285 with a .358 OBP in 158 at-bats in the leadoff role; Gregor Blanco hit .252 with a strong .371 OBP in a team-high 234 at-bats in the role, but had 51 strikeouts and only nine extra-base hits for a .299 slugging percentage.)
In Furcal’s last season with the Braves in 2005, he hit .285 with a .348 OBP and 54 extra-base hits (12 homers) and 58 RBI in 615 at-bats in the leadoff role. No other Braves player had more than 22 at-bats at leadoff that year.
In 2005, Braves leadoff hitters ranked third in the league in runs (113), average (.295) and slugging (.439), and fourth in OBP (.439).
In 2008, Braves leadoff hitters were tied for 12th in runs (94) and ranked 11th in average (.273), 14th in slugging (.375) and tied for third in OBP (.356).
Furcal will be welcome back with open arms at the top of the order. Now just cross your fingers and hope his back holds up.
Let’s hope the pictures from Furcal’s X-rays or MRI look better than pictures of Tony Curtis’ (allegedly) surgically enhanced face in those ClearChoice Dental Implant Center newspaper ads where he’s wearing a beret.
”THE MOON’S A HARSH MISTRESS” by Jimmy Webb
See her how she flies
Golden sails across the sky
Close enough to touch
But careful if you try
Though she looks as warm as gold
The moon’s a harsh mistress
The moon can be so cold
Once the sun did shine
Lord, it felt so fine
The moon a phantom rose
Through the mountains and the pines
And then the darkness fell
And the moon’s a harsh mistress
It’s so hard to love her well
I fell out of her eyes
I fell out of her heart
I fell down on my face
Yes, I did, and I — I tripped and I missed my star
God, I fell and I fell alone, I fell alone
And the moon’s a harsh mistress
And the sky is made of stone
The moon’s a harsh mistress
She’s hard to call your own.
