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Wednesday, December 10, 2008
CC to NY, now AJ to ATL?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Las Vegas — Now that the first huge domino named CC has fallen, the Braves hope the one named A.J. will fall soon. Provided it falls toward Atlanta.
CC Sabathia and the Yankees have reportedly agreed to the framework of an seven-year, $160 million contract — framework as enormous as the 6-7, 300-pound Sabathia himself — other free agents should start getting serious about their own future destinations.
So how does the Sabathia deal with the Yankees, reached sometime during Yankee GM Brian Cashman’s visit Tuesday night to Sabathia’s Northern California home, affect the Braves’ chances of beating out the Yanks and other suitors for the services of Burnett?
Well, there’s two ways of looking at it. I tend to think it improves the likelihood, unless another team comes in and raises the ante even further than the Yankees did when Cashman made Burnett what was believed to be a four-year, $64 million offer on Tuesday, which is $4 mill more than the Braves’ offer made to Burnett last week.
That initial Braves offer might be worth more just based on the cost of living in New York compared to Atlanta. That said, I’ve got to believe the Braves will consider raising it, if necessary, and perhaps turning a fifth-year option from that offer to a fifth-year guarantee and perhaps increasing the per-season average for a total of $80 mill. It was reported elsewhere this morning that the Braves have already done that, though I haven’t gotten it confirmed from any reliable source on either side.
The Braves indicated all along they would be willing to improve their already rather large offer in order to assure they land Burnett, one of the few remaining pitchers that comes close to fitting the “ace” label.
The others are Derek Lowe, a Scott Boras client that most believe is eventually headed to Boston or the Yankees, Ben Sheets, who has never won more than the 13 games he won this season for Milwaukee, and has not totaled as many as 160 strikeouts or 200 innings since 2004. Braves haven’t shown much, if any, real interest in him.
Oh, and don’t forget Jake Peavy, the rumor-a-minute machine who was the target of the Braves’ attentions for more than six weeks this offseason before the frustrated Braves pulled out of stalled trade negotiations with the Padres for the 2007 NL Cy Young Award winner.
If he doesn’t go to the Cubs in a multi-team deal that may or may not be close, depending which report you read or who you ask, then perhaps — hey, we said perhaps - the Braves could revisit that if Burnett falls through.
And sure, the Yankees could raise their offer to A.J., too. But ask yourself this: Even the Yankees, with their apparent ability to print money in a vault beneath Yankee Stadium, might be uncomfortable going five guaranteed years with Burnett on top of seven guaranteed with Sabathia.
Insurers don’t go beyond three years on these contracts, though teams can renew after any year. In other words, the Braves could sign Burnett to a five-year deal, then renew their three-year policy after the first year if he stays healthy, so they’d be covered through the fourth season. And so on.
But just what if, what if, the Sabathia got hurt halfway through that contract, a major injury. Same for Burnett. Oh, that’d be a lot of money committed for a long time to pitchers potentially not as good as they were when those deals were handed out.
Burnett’s agent, Darek Braunecker, who met for the first time face-to-face with Braves GM Frank Wren on Tuesday (their previous conversations were over the phone) has said his client probably wouldn’t sign before the Winter Meetings in Vegas adjourn Thursday.
I don’t know that the Sabathia signing with affect that at all, since Burnett’s agent has indicated that another team might raise its interest level in A.J. after the resolution of other unnamed developments it was monitoring.
Perhaps that meant that a team with interst in Sabathia might raise its interest level in Burnett if Sabathia signed with the Yankees. I’m not sure. Maybe we’ll know more later today if Braunecker elaborates.
In the meantime, let’s consider for a moment the enormity of the Sabathia contract, the most lucrative deal in major league history for a pitcher. Did the man pick the right time to churn out brilliant, clutch performances on short rest, or what? With free agency waiting, he pitched like a man possessed for Milwaukee down the stretch this season, after being traded from Cleveland.
Now he gets the deal of his lifetime, or the lifetime of pitcher who’s lived until now.
Just consider, Sabathia will make more during this deal than Greg Maddux, who retired Monday, made during his entire, spectacular 23-year career. Maddux made about $154 million and won 355 games, recording 109 complete games and 3,371 strikeouts in 5,008-1/3 innings and 740 starts.
Sabathia, 28, has 117 career wins and 1,659 innings.
After going 17-10 with 251 strikeouts in 253 innings this season, he would have to average 16.5 wins and 223 innings for the next 15 seasons to match Maddux.
OK, a tune: Got to keep this blog short because we have a BBWAA meeting at 9 a.m. Vegas time. We’ll be back shortly. Enjoy the music. (I live Glen Campbell’s cover of this song best.)
”GALVESTON” by Jimmy Webb
Galveston, oh Galveston
I still hear your sea winds blowing
I still see her dark eyes glowing
She was twenty-one
When I left Galveston
Galveston, oh Galveston
I still hear your sea waves crashing
While I watch the cannon flashing
And I clean my gun
And I dream of Galveston
I still see her standing by the water
Standing there, looking out to sea
And is she waiting there for me?
On the beach where we used to run
Galveston, oh Galveston
I am so afraid of dying
Before I dry the tears she’s crying
Before I see your sea birds flying
In the sun, at Galveston
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