AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2008 > December > 03
Wednesday, December 3, 2008
What of the Vazquez trade? I think….
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
I’ve known aces. Aces have been friends of mine (OK, that’s a stretch). And you, Javier Vazquez, are no ace.
That said, Vazquez is a definite middle-rotation upgrade for a Braves team that didn’t have any pitcher work 200 innings last season and had only one (Jair Jurrjens) work as many as 150 innings as a starter.
Say what you (or Ozzie Guillen) will about Vazquez — that he’s soft, that he’s not a big-game pitcher, etc. — but he is a workhorse who’s as much of a lock as anyone in baseball to give you 200 innings, 190 or more strikeouts and double-digit wins, year after year after year.
And if the Braves land an ace of the A.J. Burnett or Jake Peavy ilk, then this rotation looks pretty solid with one of them at the top and Jair Jurrjens and Vazquez in the 2-3 slots in either order, particularly if top-rated pitching prospect Tommy Hanson is in the back of the rotation by mid-summer, which I think he will be (and it won’t surprise me if he makes it out of spring training).
Vazquez, who’s getting his physical as I write this and is expected to be introduced at a Thursady morning press conference at Turner Field.
He got in Guillen’s doghouse last year with the Sox and Ozzie said he couldn’t trust Vazquez in a big game. Hey, it happens. A few guys, including a pitcher or two I can think if, have gotten in the Braves’ doghouse, it’s just that Leo Mazzone or Bobby Cox (or most other managers or pitching coaches) would never throw them under the bus by naming them publicly.
We like Ozzie a lot, but hey, he can be a bit brutal on a player now and then. That’s how he rolls.
But anyway, like I said, as long as Braves and Braves fans aren’t expecting Vazquez to be an ace, things will be fine (and yes, I know that $11.5 mill each of the next two seasons might indicate he should be an ace to some of you, but you might want to look closer at what proven pitchers are getting these days. It’s actually not out of line for a guy who’s durable and can win at least 10-12 games and perhaps 15-18 with good run support and a solid bullpen.
And Braves officials aren’t expecting him to be an ace, though they do believe that Vazquez will benefit greatly from getting out of the White Sox’ hitter-friendly ballpark and back to the National League, where he broke in with the Montreal Expos and once appeared to be an ace-in-the-making.
In his last three years with the Expos (2001-03), Vazquez was 39-36 with a 3.52 ERA and .245 opponents’ average in 100 starts, piling up 628 strikeouts in 684-2/3 innings in that three-season span.
In five seasons since then, he’s pitched for three teams (Arizona, Yankees, W. Sox) and compiled a 63-61 record and 4.50 ERA with a .257 opponents’ average with 939 strikeouts in 1041-1/3 innings.
In the last three seasons with the Sox, he’s 38-36 with a 4.40 ERA and 77 homers allowed in 627-2/3 innings over 98 starts. Hardly the stuff of aces, though certainly consistent with the innings and strikeouts.
Since I’m pressed for time here (got to get back down to the office downtown for another training class), I’ll reiterate what I said about the trade last night after I learned the details — Vazquez and lefty reliever Boone Logan to the Braves for four young players including mashing catching prospect Tyler Flowers, infielder Brent Lillibridge and a couple of minor leaguers, third baseman Jon Gilmore and promising rookie-league lefty Santos Rodriguez.
As I said last night, I’ve never been a big Vazquez guy, just don’t think he’s a big-game pitcher. But as a No. 3 (that’s where I’d have him, after Jurrjens), I think he’s very solid, a 200-innings, 200-strikeout guy who’s still only 32. Very consistent, solid but not spectacular.
Now, if the Braves had given up Morton or any other solid, advanced pitching prospect, I’d have serious questions about the deal.
But fact of the matter is, they gave up one legit, big-time slugging prospect in Flowers, who was never going to play for the Braves while McCann was here. Lillibridge didn’t impress me in 2008, and I don’t think he’ll be more than a backup/utility type. I hope I’m wrong, as he’s a good dude.
Gilmore was the 33rd overall pick in the 2007 draft, a third baseman who’s a long way from being a major leaguer and not what anyone has called a sure thing.
The young lefty, Rodriguez, just based on his numbers and what Chicago scouts who saw him in instructional league say, could be a real stud eventually. Great arm. So that one could bite the Braves in the butt someday in a few years.
Flowers is the guy, though, that I really think he could end up being a major league power guy. However, he’s probably going to the right league, since he’ll be able to DH if he can’t catch or the Sox decide he’s too big to catch or too much of a hitter to not have DHing in a couple years.
I knew Braves would trade him eventually, but thought they’d move him in a trade for an ace or impact position player later in the year or next season. But when you’re desperate to get two quality pitchers, you’ve got to trade a piece or two you’d prefer to keep, and Braves were/are desperate for two starting pitchers.
They got a good, durable one, not a great one. If they can pull off a deal to get a Burnett or Peavy, they will have accomplished their pitching mission and dramaticaly upgraded a rotation that was a patchwork mess the past two years.
But if they don’t get another, true ace and have to go with Jurrjens and Vazquez at the top of the rotation … well, that would not be good. And I really don’t think that will be the case.
Keep in mind, the Braves have money to spend, and I’m told they are going to make a very competitive offer real soon for Burnett, probably even guarantee the fifth year to lessen the likelihood of him waiting around for one of the teams spurned by CC Sabathia to make him (Burnett) a desperation offer.
The Braves can probably go $15-16 mill a year in a five-year deal for Burnett. They’re in a good position relative to most teams, because with this economy suppressing some expected free-agent salaries, it’s a good time to be a buyer.
Having $40 mill to spend (or whatever the Braves have and are willing to spend) is a little like being a first-time home buyer right now, with a down payment socked away and no home you have to sell before you move in to a new one. The Braves can afford to sign Burnett and also perhaps sign a power-hitting free agent outfielder or trade for one with a big salary.
OK, gotta go now. Just wanted to get this up before yesterday’s blog crashes under the weight of all the trade-driven passionate comments.
We might carry over yesterday’s sidetracked R.E.M. discussion, too.
In fact, yes, I think we’ll do that now:
R.E.M. list, Pt. 2: By popular demand, we follow up our Top 10 list of top IRS-label R.E.M. songs from their 1982-1987 era, with a top dozen from the 20-year Warner Bros. era (1988 to present).
Much as it was next to impossible to pick 10 from the incredibly rich IRS years it was also difficult to limit it to a dozen from the Warner Brothers era. So we went with a baker’s dozen. Once you start going through the albums, you realize there were more great songs there than you might recall.
Feel free to give us your own 13. Here’s mine, in no particular order:
Man on the Moon; What’s the Frequency, Kenneth?; Country Feedback; How the West Was Won and Where It Got Us; Turn You Inside-Out; E-Bow the Letter; Walk Unafraid; Electrolite; All the Way to Reno; Bad Day; Mansized Wreath; Hollow Man; Losing My Religion.
“U.S. STEEL” by Tom Russell
Homestead Pennsylvania, the home of the U.S. Steel
And the men down at the Homestead Works
Are sharing one last meal
Sauerkraut and kilbassa, a dozen beers or more
A hundred years of pouring slab,
They’re closing down the door
And this mill won’t run no more.
There’s silence in the valley, there’s silence in the streets
There’s silence every night here upon these cold white sheets
Were my wife stares out the window with a long and lonely stare
She says “you kill yourself for 30 years but no one seems to care”
You made their railroads rails and bridges, you ran their driving wheels
And the towers of the Empire State are lined with Homestead Steel
The Monongahela valley no longer hears the roar
There is cottonwood and suemacway inside the slab mill door
And this mill won’t run no more.
