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November 2008
Braves fans, it just feels late
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
It’s Thanksgiving and we’re all thankful for something, most of us for a whole lot. So have a good one, everybody, and try to be thankful for what you have despite these rough times.
We’re glad you come here to the Braves/Man In Black blog, whether it’s once in a while or all the time. We really are. All of you. Well, most of you (smile).
Now, on to biz, though we’ll hurry through because we’ve got three eating stops to make on the bike before 5 p.m. (yes, thankful it’s warm enough to motor around a traffic-free city on the bike at Thanksgiving).
Since the other blog was getting close to the magic crash number (it tends to stagger, then bend and break around 1,000 comments) we figured we should get up a clean slate since I know a lot of you are going to get tired of eating and watching some bad football at some point. So when that holiday family dysfunction gets too dysfunctional, post a comment or two. Don’t cost nothin’ (reference to the movie we recently debated here).
And speaking of the movie Animal House, they’re showing another comedy I personally rate even higher, The Big Lebowski, twice today at the Plaza Theatre on Ponce in Atlanta.
Where were we? Oh, the Braves. Yes. Hey, it’s Thanksgiving and some of you act as though the offseason is basically over and has been an abject failure for the Braves. Folks, you’re getting waay ahead of yourselves.
The offseason has barely begun. It just feel like it’s been excruciatingly long and fruitless because the Braves immediately were immersed in the Jake Peavy Saga, before most other teams even started whipping up rumors and talking to free agents and other teams about trades.
Keep in mind, it’s not even Dec. 1, the deadline for teams to offer arbitration to their free agents. Until that day, players such as Edgar Renteria and a bunch of other Type A free agents aren’t going to be signed by other teams, because those teams want to wait to see if said players are offered arbitration.
Why would a team sign a Renteria today and give up a first-round draft pick as compensation to the Tigers (who’d also get a sandwich pick as compensation) if they can wait until Monday (Dec. 1) and sign him without giving up compensatory pick if, as expected, the Tigers don’t offer arbitration? Makes no sense.
Several pitchers are in that same situation, less-than-dominant but still classified as Type-A free agents including Oliver Perez, Jamie Moyer Brad Penny, Randy Wolf, Randy Johnson. Even Ben Sheets, who’d get more than Milwaukee would care to pay him if the Brewers offered arbitration and he accepted it.
So just try to relax, folks. If the Braves are going to sign anyone like that, it was never going to be until at least next week. And most of those guys will wait until the Winter Meetings a week later in Las Vegas.
If you’re a free agent and you came this far, chances are your agent is going to urge you to wait until the buying frenzy begins and dominoes start falling in Vegas (along with some writers’ checking-account balances, I’m guessing.)
Meanwhile, the Braves are, as A.J. Burnett’s agent said, one of six teams “fully engaged” in talks for the Toronto right-hander. They’ve expressed interest in Derek Lowe and already tried to lure Ryan Dempster. Lowe is a Boras client, which means he probably won’t sign for a month or more, and Dempster re-upped with the Cubs, as most people figured all along that he would.
Is there risk in offering a four- or five-year contract to Burnett, which is what it’s going to take, probably for at least $15 mill annually, to sign him? Sure there is. Like Ben Sheets, he’s had plenty of DL stints throughout his career and, like Sheets, never won more than 12 games before this season. By the way, isn’t that amazing, that two veterans who never won more than 12 games in a season before 2008 are so highly sought as free agents?
(Well, wait, actually I haven’t heard of a great deal of interest yet in Sheets … but you get my point.)
But that’s what happens where there are a bunch of pitching-needy teams with money to spend and so few top-shelf type of pitchers available. And before anyone dismisses Burnett on that count, don’t try to tell me that a guy who goes 18-10 and leads the AL with 231 strikeouts in 221-1/3 innings isn’t top-shelf, particularly when he won 18 games for a team that plays in a division with the Red Sox, Yankees and pennant-winning Rays.
In his last 19 starts beginning June 24, he went 12-3 with a 3.12 ERA and 141 strikeout with 40 walks in 130 innings. In his last 15 starts, he had nine wins, 11 quality starts and 113 strikeouts in 102-2/3 innings, a 15-game stretch that included nine starts against the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees.
Realistically, if Burnett had pitched for an NL East team the way he pitched this year for Toronto, don’t you think he could’ve been a 20-game winner?
Not saying he’s not flawed, but he had Tommy John surgery four years ago, and scar-tissue breakup two years later in the elbow. Almost every pitcher who has TJ surgery will tell you they get scar-tissue breakup, it’s just that most of them usually get it during the months-after recovery period; Burnett’s came later, and scared a lot of people including him.
Dr. James Andrews told him after a fearful visit that it was nothing to be alarmed about, and Burnett’s had no problems with the elbow since. Folks, we could make a list of 40 accomplished major league pitchers who’ve had TJ surgery and never had another problem with their elbows.
Not saying Burnett won’t, but these days, more pitchers don’t have recurrences of elbow problems after TJ surgery than pitchers who do. Burnett’s also had a couple of shut-down periods for shoulder soreness in the past few years, but the Blue Jays said they were only being cautious bringing him back slowly from those DL stints because he’d had a big workload leading up to those periods and/or they were out of contention at the time. MRIs of his shoulder have been fine.
But yes, there are risks with such an injury-plagued pitcher, to get back to that issue we were discussing. Risks with him, Jake Peavy, for any pitcher with some mileage and especially those with multiple DL stints in the past.
But to use a cliché, you can’t swim in the waters with the big boys without taking risks. It’s the price of doing business in this industry.
If you want to compete now, you’ve got to fill holes, not cross fingers and hope that your own homegrown players continue to develop and fill those holes in a couple of years or more.
Sometimes, you can’t sit on the sideline and wait for kids to develop in a year or two. For instance, if you’re a GM whose former perennially contending team has missed the postseason three straight years, and some folks are getting antsy with attendance declining and those inroads you made with rejuvenated fans a few years ago now showing some erosion, and with a horrible economy ready to exacerbate that erosion should your team struggle out of the gate again.
And just to reiterate, I don’t believe the Braves are completely out of the Jake Peavy sweepstakes, as it were. Regardless of what’s said publicly, until he’s traded to another team I’m not going to believe the Braves are entirely out of it.
If they’re not, it would sure explain why they’re slow to trade for, say, a Ryan Ludwick or Jermaine Dye or another other outfield power bat (that’s a need they’d rather fill via trade that through a multi-year contract). Because the Braves don’t intend to trade Yunel Escobar and Kelly Johnson in the same offseason, don’t intend to start over with two new middle infielders at spring training.
So of there’s any chance they could still get Peavy in a deal with Escobar as the centerpiece, then they’d not want to deal Kelly Johnson for Ludwick, as was discussed at the GM meetings. As you can see, this is complicated. These are moving parts that are all part of the offseason process for the Braves, and so much depends, potentially, on the Peavy deal.
That’s why it was so frustrating for the Braves when Kevin Towers kept coming back to the table asking for another prospect, every time the deal looked like it might get done. And probably why the Braves announced publicly they were pulling out, to put pressure on Towers to get a deal done.
That’s just me speculating there. But think about it: If that’s not the case, why wouldn’t the Braves have just quietly stopped negotiating with Towers for Peavy, rather than announcing it publicly, which is so unlike the Braves’ usual policy of keeping almost everything private in all negotiations?
But anyway, the bigger point is that, as I said, it’s still early in the process. The Braves have a lot of oars in the water, many more than just the ones that are leaked (those leaks usually come from the other team involved or from agents, not from the Braves).
Oh, by the way, for those who don’t mind the potential salary and wait involved with signing a proven client of Scott Boras, but cringe at the thought of signing the injury-plagued Burnett, consider this comparison.
Since the beginning of the 2007 season, Lowe is 26-25 with a 3.55 ERA, .250 opponents’ average and 294 strikeouts (104 walks) in 410-1/3 innings. He received 4.8 support runs per nine innings pitched in that span.
In that same period, Burnett is 28-18 with a 3.93 ERA, .234 opponents’ average and 407 strikeouts (152 walks) in 387 innings. He received 5.0 support runs per nine innings pitched in that span.
For the record, in that same period, Peavy is 29-16 with a 2.61 ERA, .215 opponents’ average and 403 strikeouts (125 walks) in 389 innings, with 4.9 support runs per nine innings. And a Cy Young Award.
Diversions: For me, the DVR is neck-and-neck with the Ipod shuffle mode for most significant technological developments of the past decade, or however long they’ve been around. Just worked out and this song list popped up on the shuffle: “Car Wheels on a Gravel Road” by Lucinda Williams, “Let Down” by Radiohead, “Don’t Take Your Guns to Town” by Johnny Cash, “Glass” by Gang of Four, “” by The Selmanaires, “Somewhere On Skid Row” by Merle Haggard, “Cherry Bomb” by John Mellencamp, “Don’t Say Nuthin’” by The Roots, “Magic Trick” by M. Ward, and “Straight To Hell” by Hank III (not quite as great as the Clash song by the same name, but brilliant nonetheless).
An R.E.M. top 10: I was inspired by uga-brave and Braveheart’s late-night blogging Wednesday, so I thought I’d come up with my own top 10 list of R.E.M. songs from their earlier years, from their albums on IRS. A few of these were on the jukebox at Louise’s West, our favorite dive bar during college in Lawrence, Kan., where I was immediately hooked on Athens’ favorite sons after seeing them play on campus in 1983, not long after Murmur was released.
Feel free to give us your own R.E.M. top 10, but keep it to the IRS years if you can. We’ll do another top 10 of their more recent stuff later.
My favorite 10 from IRS years: 1. Begin The Begin, 2. Sitting Still, 3. So. Central Rain, 4. I Believe, 5. Radio Free Europe, 6. Harborcoat, 7. Driver 8, 8. Carnival of Sorts (Box Cars), 9. 7 Chinese Brothers, 10. Pretty Persuasion.
(“The One I Love” isn’t on my list simply because it was too ubiquitous. I just heard it too damn many times, but it’s a terrific song, as were at least 25 others that could make this list. “It’s the End of the World” doesn’t make my list. Always felt like more of a novelty song. I’m sure many will disagree, since it’s one of their most popular.)
OK, a tune: Stipe has written some strong lyrics, but he’s so often been arcane or cryptic, especially back in the day. The lyrics weren’t as crucial to me when it came to R.E.M. as they are for most of my favorite rock artists. For instance:
”CRIME IN THE CITY” by Neil Young
Well, the cop made the showdown
He was sure he was right
He had all of the lowdown
From the bank heist last night
His best friend was the robber
And his wife was a thief
All the children were killers
They couldn’t get no relief
The bungalow was surrounded
When a voice loud and clear
Said, Come on out with your hands up
Or we’ll blow you out of here.
There was a face in the window
The TV cameras rolled
Then they cut to the announcer
And the story was told.
The artist looked at the producer
The producer sat back
He said, What we have got here
Is a perfect track
But we don’t have a vocal
And we don’t have a song
If we could get these things accomplished
Nothin’ else could go wrong.
So he balanced the ashtray
As he picked up the phone
And said, Send me a songwriter
Who’s drifted far from home
And make sure that he’s hungry
Make sure he’s alone
Send me a cheeseburger
And a new Rolling Stone.
Yeah.
There’s still crime in the city,
Said the cop on the beat,
I don’t know if I can stop it
I feel like meat on the street
They paint my car like a target
I take my orders from fools
Meanwhile some kid blows my head off
Well, I play by their rules
That’s why I’m doin’ it my way
I took the law in my hands
So here I am in the alleyway
A wad of cash in my pants
I get paid by a 10-year-old
He says he looks up to me
There’s still crime in the city
But it’s good to be free.
Yeah.
Now I come from a family
That has a broken home
Sometimes I talk to Daddy
On the telephone
When he says that he loves me
I know that he does
But I wish I could see him
I wish I knew where he was
But that’s the way all my friends are
Except maybe one or two
Wish I could see him this weekend
Wish I could walk in his shoes
But now I’m doin’ my own thing
Sometimes I’m good, then I’m bad
Although my home has been broken
It’s the best home I ever had
Yeah.
Well, I keep gettin’ younger
My life’s been funny that way
Before I ever learned to talk
I forgot what to say
I sassed back to my mom
I sassed back to my teacher
I got thrown out of Bible school
For sassin’ back at the preacher
Then I grew up to be a fireman
Put out every fire in town
Put out anything smokin’
But when I put the hose down
The judge sent me to prison
He gave me life without parole
Wish I never put the hose down
Wish I never got old.
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Hanson tops off an overwhelming year
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Sure, we knew that Tommy Hanson could dominate Single-A and Double-A hitters, after a 2008 season in which the Braves’ top-rated pitching prospect went 11-5 with a 2.41 ERA in 138 innings between Myrtle Beach and Misssissippi.
Dude had 163 strikeouts and 52 walks in 138 innings and led minor league starters with a .175 opponents’ average. Oh, and threw a 14-strikeout no-hitter in Double-A.
But what would the 6-foot-6 right-hander do against prospects of his ilk out in the Arizona Fall League, where many teams send their most promising youngsters, some of whom have already had a cup of coffee in the majors?
Well, Hanson was about as dominant against them as he was against the poor kids down at Myrtle Beach.
I mean, they told me out in Arizona a couple weeks ago that they rarely, if ever, had seen such man-against-boys performances as the ones that Hanson turned in most every start for the Mesa Solar Sox, with a dozen or so scouts sitting in the stands behind home plate armed with radar guns.
Hanson went 5-0 with a 0.63 ERA in seven regular-season AFL starts, then gave up one run and three hits in five innings of Saturday’s championship game before his bullpen blew a lead in Mesa’s loss to the Phoenix Desert Dogs.
Including the title game, Hanson finished 5-0 with a 0.74 ERA and stunning 64 strikeouts in 36-2/3 innings, with only 13 hits, 10 walks and three earned runs allowed.
Please keep in mind he was facing fairly advanced young hitters only a step away from the big leagues, not Class-A and Double-A lineups that might have included three or four hitters with little chance of ever seeing a major league field.
He overwhelmed them to such a degree that Hanson could win the Arizona Fall League MVP award. No pitcher has ever won that honor, I’m told. It’ll be announced in a litte over a week at the Winter Meetings in Vegas.
Everyone who saw him out got a good idea quickly as to why the Braves refused to trade him to San Diego in a Jake Peavy deal, and why they consider Hanson off-limits altogether. Him and big outfielder Jason Heyward might well be the most talented prospects the Braves have developed since Andruw Jones. Seriously.
I think we’ll see Hanson by mid-summer in Atlanta, and it wouldn’t shock me if he makes a strong bid for an opening day rotation spot this spring in big-league camp at Dark Star. But we’ll see.
A lot of that probably depends on what the Braves are able to do this winter, if they’re able to acquire the two proven starters they seek, on top of whether Mike Hampton and/or Tom Glavine and/or John Smoltz returns, though Smoltz might be headed to the bullpen if he’s back.
For now, thought I’d share with you a few parts of my interview with Hanson from last month’s trip out to Arizona, stuff that didn’t get in my story or on the blog previously.
Tommy Hanson on…
The confidence and maturity that Mesa (and Myrtle Beach) manager Rocket Wheeler said he’s seen in him since Hanson first was promoted from Rome to Myrtle in 2007 and got knocked around a bit initially:
“Yeah, exactly. I was a little bit unsure last year [2007]. But after I got hit around a little bit, I just said, forget it, I’m just going to go out and pitch and do what I’ve always done. And it seems to be working out.”
On starting the 2008 season with five no-hit innings with 13 strikeouts in Myrtle’s season opener:
“I didn’t know if I was capable of doing that. That was just one of those days where everything was working out. I never would have guessed I would have done that. But that was just one of those times … pretty much all year this year I’ve been real confident with all my pitches.”
On how far he’s come in one year’s time:
“Well, with all my pitches I feel like I can throw them for strikes when I need to. Last year I wasn’t real consistent, so I’d say when it comes to that, I’ve come a long ways. Now really all I’m working on is my changeup, trying to get that down and just keep doing what I’m doing.”
On the slider he broke out for the first time in a couple of years during his June no-hitter for for Mississippi:
“I was working on it a little before that game, and that was the game where [Mississippi pitching coach Derek] Bothello said, ‘You know what, just throw it whenever you feel like throwing it.’ So that was really the first time they let me have my slider back and let me throw it whenever I wanted to.
“I threw it quite a bit [in that game]. I threw my slider quite a bit growing up; I didn’t really throw a curveball. I just felt a lot more comfortable with my slider at the time. I feel good with curveball now, too, but it just feels like [the slider] is an easier pitch to throw. It’s not a feel pitch, you throw it just like your fastball.”
So that’s been your “out” pitch lately?
“I don’t know. Different days it’s either my curveball or my slider. Just depends. But I’d say the most consistent one is my slider.”
On handling all the attention he’s getting:
“I’m out here just to work on stuff. I’m not going to let that bother me or affect me, what I do each day when I go out there. Every day I come out here I just want to get better, so I can pitch in the major leagues. I mean, what I’m doing out here. I know I’ve got to get better, so that’s what my focus is.”
Has your success this year made you even hungrier to get to the majors?
“Yeah, I just feel closer. Just a couple of little things I want to work on. I feel closer, so I’m ready to just keep working hard and hopefully it happens soon.”
On Braves GM Frank Wren telling him, in person out in Arizona, that he wouldn’t be traded:
“It’s definitely a good feeling, him telling me that. I signed with the Braves, I want to stay with the Braves. So it’s good that they want me to stay here, too. So it’s definitely a good feeling. [Wren] pulled me aside and told me that. It was definitely good to hear.”
What’s been the highlight of the year for him?
“I’d say the no-hitter, but I’d also say winning the league with the team in Missisippi. Because they started out not doing too hot [Hanson was promoted there in May]. I kind of got to watch a team go from, you know, where everybody was down, to the stage everybody was getting confidence, and then everybody was playing well and we ended up winning the league.
“Personal [high point] was throwing that no-hitter, but overall, winning the league was definitely a highlight.”
On his chances of making the big-league club out of spring training:
“I don’t know. That’s kind of up to them. The goal for me is always to pitch in Atlanta; it’s not to pitch at a certain level in the minor leagues. So whenever they think I’m ready, hopefully I’ll be ready and go from there.”
On how nice it was not having to face Mesa catcher Tyler Flowers in the Fall League. Flowers, another Braves prospect, led the league with 12 homers.
[Hanson laughs.]”Definitely. I mean, you saw what Flowers did in batting practice. He has unreal power. He hits the crap out of the ball, and I love him behind the plate. He does a great job behind the plate. It’s like we’re always on the same page, and he’s a huge target back there, too, so it kind of makes it look a little closer.”
Leaving them out there: Don’t know if anyone referred to this stat previously, but I just noticed it in a Peter Gammons file from a week or two back and it brought home a point we’ve made previously.
It wasn’t just that Jeff Francoeur had such a disappointing season, it was the fact that he was left to hit in the middle of the order for so long and left in the lineup day after day after day. The end result was a remarkable number of wasted scoring opportunities.
And here’s the stat and spells it out. Gammons got it from Rob Tracy at the Elias Sports Bureau.
Hitters who came to bat with the most runners on base: 1. Justin Morneau, 558; 2. Garrett Atkins, 515; 3. David Wright, 508; 4. Mark Teixeira; 5. Carlos Beltran, .498; 6. Jeff Francoeur, 494; 7. Ryan Howard, 483; 8. Carlos Delgado, 480.
So I took that stat and went and looked at what all those guys hit with runners on base and how many RBI they finished with in 2008.
The envelope, please:
Morneau: .330 with runners on, 129 RBI.
Atkins: .256, 99 RBI.
Wright: .290, 124 RBI.
Teixeira: .303, 121 RBI.
Beltran: .283, 112 RBI.
Francoeur: .203, 71 RBI.
Howard: .309, 146 RBI.
Delgado: .285, 115 RBI.
Wow. That’s just ugly.
Reiterating, Braves need OF power: It’s been a while (seems like a very long while) since the Braves’ season ended, so this would be a good time to remind everyone that all Braves outfielders - all of them, starters and part-timers and everyone else - combined for a not-at-all-grand total of 27 homers, which was the worst in the majors and less than half of the NL team average (63) for outfield homers.
Ten NL teams had 60 or more, and six NL teams had 73 or more homers from outfielders. And the Braves had … 27. Twenty-seven. The Braves had a majors-low .367 slugging percentage from their outfielders, and only the Nationals (196) and Mariners (199) had fewer RBI from outfielders than the Braves (212).
So while so much attention is focused on the Braves acquiring starting pitching, their other stated offseason priority is a power-hitting outfielder.
My understanding is that all available options not named Manny have been or are still being considered, but the Braves are hoping to either sign or trade for an affordable bat without any long-term commitment. That’s why names like Seattle free agent Raul Ibanez and St. Louis trade-bait Ryan Ludwick keep coming up.
It’s apparent the Braves are planning to move forward with Matt Diaz, in the fold (Frank Wren made a comment the other day about how committed Diaz is and how good a shape he’s getting himself into this offseason), so I’m assuming he’s going to have some LF duties, perhaps even be in a platoon arrangement depending upon which other bad the Braves can acquire this winter.
That would make some sense with either Ludwick (if he’s not a one-season wonder?) or Ibanez. Both had great seasons last year as every-day players, but Ludwick has had an injury-plagued past and has been much more effective against right-handed pitchers, while Ibanez is 36, and has also been much more potent vs. righties in his career.
Both might benefit from a platoon arrangment, or at least a semi-platoon type of deal, which would also assure the Braves a powerful, experienced bat for pinch-hitting, regardless of who was playing LF at the time.
Ibanez has a .293 career average and .949 OPS vs. right-handers, and a .268 average and .734 OPS vs. lefties. Two years ago in 2007, he hit .305 with an .899 OPS vs. righties, and .256 with a .650 OPS vs. lefties (last season the splits were much more even).
Ludwick erupted for a 80 extra-base hits (37 homers) and 113 RBI in his breakout 2008 season, his first healthy season in the majors. He hit .266 with 15 homers and a .929 OPS vs. lefties, and .316 with 22 homers and a .984 OPS vs. righties. The man raked vs. just about everyone.
But in 2007, Ludwick hit just .221 with three homers and a .684 OPS in 122 at-bats vs. lefties, and .298 with 11 homers and a .909 OPS in 181 at-bats vs. righties.
For his career, Ludwick has a .296 average and .893 OPS vs. righties, and .233 average and .797 OPS vs. lefties.
Yes, despite being a right-handed hitter, he’s got a batting average 63 points lower and an OPS nearly 100 points lower against righties than against lefties. So throw out the book on righty-lefty matchups and go with actual results.
While Ludwick might be a gamble if the Braves have to give up a significant player to get him, he’s less a gamble if they have a solid potential platoon partner, or at least partial platoon, if you will. Ludwick has alwas raked against righties.
Enter Diaz.
While not a big power threat against lefties or righties, Diaz usually has produced loads of line-drive hits and a high average, particularly against lefties.
His .309 career average includes a .328 mark with 18 homers and an .869 OPS in 478 at-bats vs. lefties, compared to .288 average with five homers and a .706 OPS in 431 at-bats vs. righties.
In 2007, Diaz’s .338 overall average included a robust .356 with a .964 OPS in 188 at-bats vs. lefties, and .318 with a .756 OPS in 170 at-bats vs. righties.
By the way, Diaz might even have a role if the Braves were to pony up for a big slugger, like Adam Dunn, who could stand to sit against some particularly tough left-handers.
Dunn last season hit .253 with 30 homers and a .951 OPS in 363 at-bats vs. right-handers, and .195 with 10 homers, a .773 OPS and 60 strikeouts in 154 at-bats vs. lefties.
On the other hand, Jermaine Dye, another big bat the Braves have at least discussed, hits both righties and lefties about equally well. Only reason you’d sit him is to rest his old bones from time to time in hopes of keeping him healthy.
Well, that and the fact he’s gotten pretty bad defensively. Of course, pretty bad is relative, considering Dunn is absolutely brutal in the outfield by comparison.
Ibanez might be not only the oldest and cheapest (considering salaries and/or talent Braves would have to give up for Ludwick or other possible trade targets), but in my view, also the best option for the Braves. If the bidding doesn’t get too absurdly high for the veteran Ibanez, he’d probably be a great pickup for the Braves.
Back to L.A. — For the boys in Entourage, that is. For those who watched the season finale last night, that was a great way to wrap up the season, wasn’t it? Loved the scene where Scorcese appeared on the other end of the phone, and suddenly our man’s fortunes completely turned.
No, I didn’t see the 24 movie, but have it on DVR. I’m assuming it’s worth watching for any of us who’ve followed the show, though I gotta admit the previews didn’t look too fresh or thrilling, and I fell asleep after 10 minutes when I tried to watch it last night/this morning well after midnight.
Not excited about that the way I am about upcoming first-season finale of Sons of Anarchy and the much, much anticipated series finale of The Shield. Or, for that matter, as excited as I am to watch my Jayhawks play Washington tonight on ESPN2. Hoops is here.
Not your dad’s Deerhunter: Because for most of us, probably that Deerhunter was the terrific, harrowing 1978 movie — and it was actually three words, The Deer Hunter — starring Robert De Niro and Christopher Walken. I was 15 when it came out, so I couldn’t see it in the theatre. I remember the first time I saw it years later, that Russian roulette scene … wow.
Anyway, we’re talking about Deerhunter, the Atlanta band that’s had a hardcore following among the punk/alt-rock crowd for years, but now is reaching a far bigger audience with its latest CD, Microcastle. Not raw and punk like the stuff that built them a following around Atlanta, but more listenable, in my opinion. Sure to get them a bigger audience, which they deserve.
For some frame of reference for this new CD, the frequent comparisons I’ve seen are to Sonic Youth and My Bloody Valentine. While those are accurate, I like the refence a Braves/MIB blogger made a few days ago, comparing this CD to Velvet Underground. The more melodic tunes by VU, that is.
I also hear some straight-ahead early rock n’ roll influence, buried beneath the various noises and feedback. Great stuff. Fine album…..
Speaking of fine albums, I can’t believe how much Kings of Leon’s Only By The Night has grown on me. Realize I must have let their pedestrian performance on SNL, before I’d ever heard the album, affect my initial reaction upon listening to the entire album the first time. Because now I find myself playing the damn thing every couple of days. Tunes that lodge in the brain. Love it. Will definitely be on my best-of list at year’s end.
Meanwhile, anyone heard Guns n’ Roses (or should we just say Axl Rose’s?) Chinese Democracy that hits the stores (or store; I think they’re only selling it at Best Buy) this week. I know it’s been available for download, but I haven’t heard it. If you have, let us know what you think.
And finally — damn, we sure rambled didn’t we — a tune: When FSU safety Myron Rolle won a prestigious Rhodes scholarship this weekend, it reminded me that one of my favorite singer/songwriters, Kris Kristofferson, was also a Rhodes Scholar. Here’s one of his many great tunes, this one with a spoken-word intro that gets better the older and croakier Kristofferson gets.
”TO BEAT THE DEVIL” by Kris Kristofferson
A couple of years back, I come across a great and wasted friend of mine in the hallway of a recording studio; and while he was reciting some poetry to me that he’d written, I saw that he was about a step away from dyin’ and I couldn’t help but wonder why. And the lines of this song occurred to me. I’m happy to say he’s no longer wasted and he’s got him a good woman. And I’d like to dedicate this to John and June, who helped show me how to beat the devil.
It was winter time in Nashville, down on music city row.
And I was lookin’ for a place to get myself out of the cold.
To warm the frozen feelin’ that was eatin’ at my soul.
Keep the chilly wind off my guitar.
My thirsty wanted whisky; my hungry needed beans.
But it’d been of month of paydays since I’d heard that eagle scream.
So with a stomach full of empty and a pocket full of dreams,
I left my pride and stepped inside a bar.
Actually, I guess you’d could call it a Tavern:
Cigarette smoke to the ceiling and sawdust on the floor;
Friendly shadows.
I saw that there was just one old man sittin’ at the bar.
And in the mirror I could see him checkin’ me and my guitar.
An’ he turned and said: “Come up here boy, and show us what you are.”
I said: “I’m dry.” He bought me a beer.
He nodded at my guitar and said: “It’s a tough life, ain’t it?”
I just looked at him. He said: “You ain’t makin’ any money, are you?”
I said: “You’ve been readin’ my mail.”
He just smiled and said: “Let me see that guitar.
“I’ve got something you oughta hear.”
Then he laid it on me:
“If you waste your time a-talkin’ to the people who don’t listen,
“To the things that you are sayin’, who do you think’s gonna hear.
“And if you should die explainin’ how the things that they complain about,
“Are things they could be changin’, who do you think’s gonna care?”
There were other lonely singers in a world turned deaf and blind,
Who were crucified for what they tried to show.
And their voices have been scattered by the swirling winds of time.
‘Cos the truth remains that no-one wants to know.
Well, the old man was a stranger, but I’d heard his song before,
Back when failure had me locked out on the wrong side of the door.
When no-one stood behind me but my shadow on the floor,
And lonesome was more than a state of mind.
You see, the devil haunts a hungry man,
If you don’t wanna join him, you got to beat him.
I ain’t sayin’ I beat the devil, but I drank his beer for nothing.
Then I stole his song.
And you still can hear me singin’ to the people who don’t listen,
To the things that I am sayin’, prayin’ someone’s gonna hear.
And I guess I’ll die explaining how the things that they complain about,
Are things they could be changin’, hopin’ someone’s gonna care.
I was born a lonely singer, and I’m bound to die the same,
But I’ve got to feed the hunger in my soul.
And if I never have a nickle, I won’t ever die ashamed.
‘Cause I don’t believe that no-one wants to know.
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Braves still shopping for a Big Dog
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The leaves are off the big ol’ oak tree I’m looking at in my front yard. Thanksgiving is just a week away. And the Braves haven’t filled any of their three stated top-priority needs — power-hitting outfielder and two additional, proven starting pitchers (not Smoltz, Glavine, Hampton or Tommy Hanson, though one or more of those fellas is likely to be on the 2009 pitching staff at some point, and it really wouldn’t shock me if that last one, young Hanson, is on it from opening day).
The denizens of the Braves/Man in Black blog, and plenty of other, less-fortunate Braves fans, are understandably growing impatient. But while some of you are already turning attention to comparatively little dogs — can I interest you in a Randy Wolf, an Oliver Perez, or a rejuvenated Mike Hampton (no, really….) — the Braves are still aiming for a Big Dog.
Jake Peavy fits that description. So does A.J. Burnett. Maybe Andy Pettitte (hey, he’s 36, but has 14 or more wins and more than 200 innings in each of the past four seasons, and in seven of the past nine).
And certainly, a very Big Dog is Roy Halladay, who it’s rumored might possibly be available for trade, though I find that a bit hard to wrap my brain around and accept as a strong possibility.
Still, veteran scribe Dan Graziano of the Newark Star-Ledger has heard the Blue Jays might explore the market for 2003 Cy Young Award winner. If so, you can be assured the Braves would be in the line of teams interested in Halladay, who has two years and $30 mill left on his contract.
The epitome of a “horse” pitcher, Halladay won 20 games this season and has churned out 52 wins and 691-1/3 innings over the past three seasons while finishing in the top five in AL Cy Young Award voting each year. No one has been as effective and durable as him these past three years. Repeat, no one.
Again, I have doubts about whether the Blue Jays would really trade their 31-year-old ace, but if they do you can bet the asking price in a trade would be comparable to what the Padres want for Peavy, if not greater.
Which brings us back to Peavy….
I don’t care what’s been said, what water has flowed under, through and around the bridge that was Braves-Padres negotiations, I still believe this deal is going to get done. As ham-fisted as this thing has been handled from San Diego’s end, the fact remains, they almost have to trade the 2007 Cy Young Award winner now, given the state of their payroll-purging franchise and GM Kevin Towers’ statement two weeks ago about how the train had left the station, in regards to the possibility of the Padres keeping Peavy, etc.
The Braves need him. The Padres need to trade him. The Braves have offered the best package for Peavy including a very good young, affordable player in shortstop Yunel Escobar, who could turn out to be a star and will almost certainly be no less than a solid major leaguer for many years to come. They would also likely give up center-field prospect Gorkys Hernandez, who is at least two years away but who has legitimate big-time potential, according to every scout I’ve talked to and opposing managers in the low-level minors.
The Cubs have Ryan Dempster now, and thus less need to meet Towers’ asking price for Peavy.
If the Braves pull it off, they’ll do so without parting with top-rated pitching prospect Tommy Hanson (one more time, folks: Hanson isn’t getting traded) and apparently without parting with center-field prospect Jordan Schafer, who might not have quite as high a “ceiling” as Hernandez, but who could be ready to take over in center on opening day and also has star potential, in the eyes of Braves officials and a few scouts I talked to last fall when he was tearing up the Arizona Fall League (months before his reputation was tarnished a bit by the 50-game suspension for alleged use of human growth hormone).
Schafer struggled initially in his return from the suspension, but played very well in the last couple of months of the season at Double-A Mississippi, reestablishing his status within the organization and his spot on the organizational ladder. He also helped himself by agreeing to play winter ball in Mexico, hardly a glamorous assignment (Josh Anderson declined to play winter ball; I don’t know if that will do anything to his candidacy or not, but also keep in mind that Schafer last spring impressed Bobby Cox and Braves teammates with his play and his attitude during spring training, when Cox said he’d be comfortable with the kid in center field if something happened to Mark Kotsay).
Schafer hit .276 with one homer and nine steals in 27 games with Navojoa — “He was playing well,” GM Frank Wren told me — before injuring a middle-finger tendon last week and returning home to be checked out. There was no break, but he’s done with winter ball — going to rest for three weeks, then rehab for a few weeks. Should be fine for spring training, Wren said.
Trading Escobar would open a big hole, no doubt, and the Braves aren’t inclined to turn his job over to anyone in the organization. They like Omar Infante in a utility role, Martin Prado’s weakest defensive position is shortstop, and Brent Lillibridge simply hasn’t shown he can hit major league pitching well enough to turn a starting job to him.
But it’s easier for team with a budget to replace a shortstop in this market than it is to acquire a free-agent pitching ace, and Escobar is one of the few young, affordable and extremely attractive players the Braves have who they’re willing to entertain offers for to get that ace pitcher or a slugging OF (Brian McCann, Jair Jurrjens, Hanson, OF prospect Jason Heyward _ those are guys teams would love to get, but they aren’t going anywhere).
There are plenty of potential shortstop replacements, though all have a flaw or two and a few would be very pricey, including former Brave Rafael Furcal, who would cost at least $10 mill per season in a multi-year deal, and perhaps closer to the three-year, $39 mill deal he just played out. Other free agents include aging-but-still-intriguing former Brave Edgar Renteria (great in the clubhouse, played very well for Braves in 2007, and not well at all for Detroit in 2008), Orlando Cabrera and Cesar Izturis, and trade possibilities including Julio Lugo (plenty of warts), Jack Wilson (a wart or two), Maicer Izturis and J.J. Hardy.
Whether the Braves trade Escobar for Peavy or not, their willingness to include him in the deal tells me the Braves would probably trade him in another big deal if this protracted Peavy negotation finally is irretrievably broken (ouch, I just had a personal divorce flashback typing that sentence.)
But this thing is not broken, or at least I don’t think it is. Wren told me he hasn’t spoken with Towers since the Braves announced Friday they were pulling out of their active pursuit of Peavy and turning attention toward other potential trades and free-agent negotiations.
Still, I don’t think it’s over. Not by a long shot.
And the fact that we’ve gone more than an entire day without hearing anything out of San Diego regarding Peavy, that only raises my antennae a bit and makes me wonder if something _ oh, OK, I’ll stop talking about it. But I’m just saying, when you least expect it ….
Wren on talks: After Ryan Dempster re-upped with the Cubs and the Yankees were said to be preparing a five-year, $80 mill offer for Burnett, I asked Wren on Tuesday night if the Braves were any closer to getting a pitcher or outfielder.
“We’re continuing to explore every opportunity,” he said. “We made some calls today, talked to some agents, also talked to some clubs about possibilities. We have a lot of conversations going on. I can’t say at this point how hopeful we are with any of them.”
Was he at all alarmed by the seemingly thin-and-getting-thinner availability of top-of-rotation starting pitchers?
“Not at this point,” he said. “There’s still guys out there that we like. I don’t see, in talking to representatives [agents], that anything is going to happen real quickly.”
As for the possibility of re-signing lefty Mike Hampton, Wren said, “We’ve had some discussions with him, some talks about an offer. Real good dialogue…. I don’t expect anything to happen [with Hampton and another team] before we at least have a chance to talk to him. We’ve had a number of conversations.”
And on re-signing Smoltz and/or Glavine, both attempting surgery comebacks, Wren said, “There’s no timetable. Just continuing to watch their rehab. A lot of it will depend on the progression and when they get to point of where you have a more educated idea” of whether they will be able and ready to pitch.
Wren said he talked to Smoltz recently “for quite a while. He’s happy with his progress.”
(I asked Wren again late this morning, as I wrote this blog, if any of those situations had changed, if any deal seemed imminent, if he’d had contact with Towers, etc, since we talked Tuesday night, and he said nothing had changed.)
Chipper’s contract: Veteran Chipper Jones isn’t signed beyond the 2009 season, and told me in October he expected to get together with his agent and Wren about a possible extension at some point in the offseason.
When I asked Frank about that this week, he said, “Our focus right now is trying to get our club put back together. If there’s anything we need to do with guys under contract, we’ll look at that once we have everything else in play.”
By the way, the Braves have six arbitration-eligible players: Omar Infante, Casey Kotchman, Jeff Francoeur, Kelly Johnson, Mike Gonzalez and Matt Diaz. The tender date is Dec. 12, and the Braves don’t appear to have any cases for non-tender consideration, like, say, Marcus Giles a few years ago.
Outfield targets: The Braves, of course, aren’t saying who they’re targeting in the power-hitting outfield market, but we do know their talks with the Cardinals about 37-homer man Ryan Ludwick aren’t dead.
Another one that we mentioned late in the 2008 season, Seattle free agent Raul Ibanez, has also drawn interest from the Braves. He’s 36, but has hit at least .280 with a .345 OBP for the past eight seasons and totaled at least 20 homers and 100 RBI for each of the past three seasons.
Great clubhouse guy, good character, fits the Braves’ mold in that regard, and wouldn’t command a long-term deal. He only made $5.5 mill last season and hit .293 with 43 doubles, 23 homers, 110 RBI and a .358 OBP, the fifth consecutive season with a plus-.350 OBP and seventh in a row with more than 30 doubles.
He’s solid, folks, and the Braves are one in a field of suitors that could include the Phillies, Mets, Cubs, Cardinals and Rangers, among others.
Diversions: First, The Sopranos and The Wire were put to rest at HBO, and now The Shield is coming to an end at FX. What promises to be a deliciously, impossibly tense 90-minute series finale next next. I don’t want it to end, man. It’s too good. What must we do to get a Vic Mackey spinoff? (Or do you folks believe that’s going to be impossible, that our very bad man is going to meet his maker in the finale? Oh, the drama.) And we’re also drawing to a season’s end with the excellent Sons of Anarchy, which better be brought back for a second season or else I’ll march on FX headquarters with a blow torch like the one they used to burn off the SOA tattoo from a banished member’s back earlier this season. All I can say is, 24 had better bring something fresh and real to the table after its ridiculously long sabbatical, or it’s going to pale next to what we’ve had on FX.
A tune: Listening to the Cash/Dylan bootleg that one of our denizens was kind enough to burn for me a while back. Never tire of this thing, and can’t believe they never released this as a proper album. It’s incredible.
Anyway, I’m on another Cash jag lately. Here’s another that J.R. wrote himself, which contains one of my favorite lines ever (“I met here accidentally in St. Paul, Minnesota”).
”BIG RIVER” by Johnny Cash
Now I taught the weeping willow how to cry,
And I showed the clouds how to cover up a clear blue sky.
And the tears that I cried for that woman are gonna flood you Big River.
Then I’m gonna sit right here until I die.
I met her accidentally in St. Paul, Minnesota.
And it tore me up every time I heard her drawl, Southern drawl.
Then I heard my dream was back Downstream cavortin’ in Davenport,
And I followed you, Big River, when you called.
Then you took me to St. Louis later on, down the river.
A freighter said she’s been here but she’s gone, boy, she’s gone.
I found her trail in Memphis, but she just walked up the block.
She raised a few eyebrows and then she went on down alone.
Now, won’t you batter down by Baton Rouge, River Queen, roll it on.
Take that woman on down to New Orleans, New Orleans.
Go on, I’ve had enough; dump my blues down in the gulf.
She loves you, Big River, more than me.
Now I taught the weeping willow how to cry, cry, cry
And I showed the clouds how to cover up a clear blue sky.
And the tears that I cried for that woman are gonna flood you Big River.
Then I’m gonna sit right here until I die.
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Is the Peavy thing over? We think not
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Hello, it’s good to be back and all that. Froze my butt off watching my Jayhawks get their butts whipped by Texas at Lawrence, but the trip was worthwhile because I saw my brother’s family, spent time with old friends, and got my fix of Gates BBQ in Kansas City.
Now, where were we?
Oh, yes, the Jake Peavy saga. So, anything happen while I was out of town? (Actually, I got the call from Frank Wren about the Braves bailing out on the Peavy deal on Friday afternoon as I stood in a Blockbuster video store in K.C., getting movies for my nephew who just had ACL knee surgery.)
Anyway, a lot of team officials and agents I spoke with out at the GM meetings two weeks ago thought that Peavy would be the first domino to fall in the offseason game pitching musical chairs.
Wrong.
Looks like the first to fall is Ryan Dempster, about to re-up with the Cubs for four years at about $13 mill per.
This development today coming just after the Yankees made their two huge offers, to C.C. Sabathia (six years and a cool $140 million, give or take a few mill) and A.J. Burnett (five years, $80 million, though a Yankees official has disputed that figure; I’m guessing it was probably more like four years an an option. But Boston is also after Burnett, so it’s probably only a matter of time until there is a five-year offer on the table if there isn’t now.)
Anyway, as you can see, the price of front-line pitching ain’t getting any cheaper, folks. In fact, this top-tier free-agent spending might be the only place in America that doesn’t seem to be affected by the real-world economic meltdown.
Anyway, with Dempster off the market, and Sabathia never in the Braves’ price range, and Burnett eyeing a five-year, $16 mill-per-season offer from the Yankees, it looks like the Braves’ best shot at landing a No. 1-caliber starting pitcher might be this right-hander that payroll-purging San Diego is offering.
Dude named Peavy.
No, but seriously….
Since Matt Cain is not available (sorry, folks) and neither, probably, is Zack Greinke (sorry again, folks), and since Derek Lowe’s represented by Scott Boras and thus not likely to sign for, oh, at least a month or two, and with the Yankees looking for at least two starters and other big-market teams including the Dodgers, Mets and Angels looking for at least one, you can see where the free-agent market might not be the easiest place for a team with any sort of payroll restrictions to fill its needs.
Which is why Peavy made the most sense for the Braves, and still does, if you ask me. And no, I don’t believe that the Braves have shut the door on this potential blockbuster.
And no, Peavy has not told friends he doesn’t want to pitch for the Braves. He and his agent gave the Padres a list of five teams for which Jake would considering waiving his no-trade clause in a potential deal, and since they made that list nothing has changed about the city of Atlanta, its location in proximity to Peavy’s native Alabama, or its franchise and its chances, whatever they might be, of contending for a playoff spot next season.
Of course, one other team on that list is the Chicago Cubs, who I’m figuring would be less inclined, not more, to sweeten their original offer for Peavy, now that Dempster’s back in the fold.
And the Yankees? Folks, with the money they have to throw around, do you really think there’s a good chance that a. They would give up their best young pitchers in a deal for Peavy, and b. that Peavy would reverse course and suddenly decide that, hey, living in Gotham for half the year might not be so bad after all? Come on.
Yes, to me a Braves-Padres deal still just makes too much sense for it not to happen.
And by the way, those of you who are happy the Braves didn’t trade Yunel Escobar to San Diego for Peavy, don’t get too excited. As much as I like Yunel and believe he might become a very good to great all-around major league shortstop, I also know that if the Braves were willing to trade him for Peavy, there’s probably a good chance his name will or already has come up in another trade proposal this winter.
One way or another, I think the Braves will deal either Escobar or Kelly Johnson in a trade to fill one of their primary needs, whether that’s for a starting pitcher or to get a power-hitting outfielder like Ryan Ludwick.
Once the anger and/or frustration between Braves and Padres officials simmers a bit and cooler heads prevail, and once Padres GM Kevin Towers realizes that he can’t keep asking the salesman to keep adding accessories after the price for the car has already been agreed upon (just easing to offseason analogy mode; stick with me folks, just got back from a brief vacation), then I do believe this deal can and probably will still get done.
As I said, just makes too much sense for both teams. Braves need an ace, and will have to outbid the Yankees and others for a pitcher comparable to Peavy, who’s going to get paid $63 mill over the next four seasons or $81 mill for the next five, depending on whether his option is exercised.
You want Dempster at $13 mill per season for four years, or A.J. Burnett (check out his year-by-year innings totals) at $16 mill per season for five years, or the 27-year-old 2007 NL Cy Young Award winner, Peavy, at just under $16 mill per season for four years or just over $16 mill per season for five.
Yes, you have to give up some very good talent, including Escobar, to get Peavy, but you’re going to pay him $1 mill less over five seasons than what Burnett could make if he takes that offer from the Yankees (and that’s just a first offer, it might go higher when other teams bid for A.J.).
Just call up their stats and tell me which pitcher you want at the top of your rotation over the next five seasons. And no, I don’t mean compare their stats simply from this season. At least look back two or three years to get a representative sample of their work.
By the way, Peavy held batters to a .229 average this season, including .194 by right-handers (second in the NL) and .184 by all hitters with runners in scoring position (third in the league). Peavy’s 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings ranked fourth in the NL this season, just ahead of Dan haren (8.58), and this wasn’t one of Peavy’s best seasons.
I see a lot of names thrown about here of alternatives that would cost the Braves a lot less, including even the likes of Brad Penny. Nevermind that the Dodgers didn’t want him back after the way he handled things this year. Do you people realize he’s pitched 200 innings just once in the past seven seasons, and never struck out 150 in that span?
That he had a 6.27 ERA this season, and that left-handers batted .328 against him, and that all hitters batted an unsightly .375 against with runners on base, worst among NL starters? Please. Can we never bring that option up again this winter?
As for Lowe: Hey, I’m with you. Many Braves came to me at the end of the season and said he’s the guy they hoped the Braves would pursue hardest (this was before any of them knew Peavy would be available).
But as I mentioned, he’s repped by Scott Boras. Now, Wren and Boras actually have a good relationship, nothing like John Schuerholz and Boras. But can the Braves wait around for a month or more and hope that they land Lowe, while most of the other top-of-rotation starters available start to get signed or traded?
Regarding Lowe. I hear a lot of folks here talk about how dependable he is (and they’re right, he doesn’t go on the DL, doesn’t miss starts) and what a horse he is.
That’s fine. But do you realize how much more dominant Peavy is than Lowe? In the past five seasons, Lowe is 68-60 with a 3.91 ERA, .264 opponents’ average and 668 strikeouts with 285 walks in 1,033-1/3 innings, while being provided with 5.4 support runs per nine innings pitched.
In that same period, Peavy is 68-43 with a 2.92 ERA, .225 opponents’ average and 1,007 strikeouts with 290 walks in 960-2/3 innings, while getting 4.97 support runs per nine innings.
In that period Peavy had an ERA that was a full run lower, and got run support a half-run lower per nine innings pitched, yet had the same number of wins and 339 more strikeouts with only five more walks in 73 fewer innings, most of the innings difference coming this year as a result of Peavy’s month on the DL.
Their numbers really aren’t even close. Peavy’s a different level of pitcher, but Lowe, who’s 35 (eight years older than Peavy), will likely get a salary comparable to Peavy’s on average over the next three or four years via free agency.
Diversions: Saw Role Models and laughed out loud at least a half-dozen times, always a good sign. Really is a hilarious movie. That made it two very good ones in a week for us, including RocknRolla…. The Shield is getting ridiculously tense and great leading up the series finale. I have no idea what’s gonna happen to my man Vic Mackey, but I’m thinking it’s probably not going to be pleasant…. Meanwhile, Sons of Anarchy, Prison Break and Entourage all are building toward much-anticipated finales. Great time to have a DVR, I tell you what. Particularly with college hoops starting up. Gotta watch games live, at least I do. Can any of you watch a game after the fact? Me, I’ve got a hard time doing that.
A tune: Nobody sings this one like Johnny, but the Whiskeytown cover on the second disc of their expanded Strangers Almanac is mighty fine.
”I STILL MISS SOMEONE” by Johnny Cash
At my door the leaves are falling
A cold, wild wind has come
Sweathearts walk by together
And I still miss someone
I go out on a party
And look for a little fun
But I find a darkened corner
because I still miss someone
Oh, no I never got over those blue eyes
I see them everywhere
I miss those arms that held me
When all the love was there
I wonder if she’s sorry
For leaving what we’d begun
There’s someone for me somewhere
And I still miss someone
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One last blog before DOB comes home
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Guess who’s making a cameo…..No, it’s not DOB yet. Really sorry, folks, but he’s got one more big, long off day coming to him today and deservedly so. He’ll be back on-line tomorrow. In the meantime, you guys have been crashing blogs I hear - actually saw for myself on Friday - and I know are itching to be heard.
So let me take a break from a little post-Falcons game brainstorming (weird, I know) and slap a blog up here, so you guys can have a clean slate.
At last check you had blown past 1,000 comments on DOB’s latest blog.
Watching the Jake Peavy trade talk from afar pick up more and more momentum and then totally fizz on Friday was interesting in and of itself. I was surely like most of you, thinking going after Peavy was a great answer to a very pressing need. His age, the finances, the upside, his potential to lead a pitching staff.
But then, as more and more names were thrown onto the pile, and the trade seemed to get bigger and bigger, I, like Mark Bradley, thought pulling the plug was the right thing to do. It actually felt like a relief.
The one little doubt that had crept into the back of my head in the last month was what about the elbow. You can’t predict the future, and maybe the time he missed last year wasn’t the signal of anything. But don’t you think the absolute last thing the Braves need is to trade the house on a guy who comes in and blows out his elbow next year?
Granted, I’d doubt the Braves would have put so much time and effort into this trade if they had serious concerns about his health, but they can’t predict the future either. And look what happened with both Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano. Great deals, yes, but then elbow, elbow, elbow problems.
To me, that makes a guy like Derek Lowe even that much more appealing. He’s a horse. He has never been on the disabled list in 11 seasons. Two more outs in 2007 and he has four straight seasons of 200-plus innings and six out of the last seven. He’s 35. But is that the new 30?
Giving up Yunel Escobar was something you have to do to get a player of Peavy’s caliber. But the likes of Gorkys Hernandez, Charlie Morton, and Blaine Boyer too? And maybe the Padres wanted something even more, with the way things broke down so abruptly.
Yes, I know, to get a big piece you’ve got to give. Just saying there was cause for exhaling on Friday.
And…there’s also that chance that once the dust settles, the Padres call again. It doesn’t sound like the Cubs can offer enough in trade, the Dodgers are all that interested and while the Yankees are, whether Peavy would agree to play in New York. So maybe, the Padres call back, and we get right back into this.
Can’t predict the future, eh?
In the meantime, I throw out a personal vote for Ryan Dempster because this is my blog (for the moment) and I can say what I want. He’s still available after the deadline passed for teams to negotiate with their own free agents. My honorary cousin Phil Rogers of the Tribune says the Cubs offered him $48-$50 million over four years.
But here’s the personal part: I went into the Cubs clubhouse in spring training in 2004, unknown to most everybody in the room except for Greg Maddux, whom I was waiting to interview about spending his first spring training away from the Braves in 12 years.
And Dempster, seeing me standing there by myself, probably looking a little bewildered, came up and introduced himself. Yes, “Hi, I’m Ryan Dempster.” And he asks me where I’m from and what I’m working on.
Unreal. I’m telling you, that doesn’t happen in clubhouses. You’re supposed to know who these guys are, for one thing. And I did. But what an impression that made.
See? It’s years later and I’m still talking about it, and thinking he’d make a great addition to the Braves clubhouse. And OK, OK, there’s got to be a baseball part too. Seems to me he’s on the upswing. Just put up a 17-6 season with a 2.96 ERA for the Cubs in his first year back in the rotation since 2003 with the Reds.
Oh and Phil also writes that the Sox may be dangling Jermaine Dye for a potential trade. Boy, he’d do a thing or two about the Braves power deficit in the outfield. He hit 34 homers and drove in 96 runs last year for the White Sox.
I think the Braves goofed in ever letting him go in the first place.
There, blow that one up and leave the blog? Gotta. It’s time to head up to Flowery Branch…..See how confusing this is. DOB come home!
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Plain to see why Braves won’t trade this one
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Mesa, Ariz. _ Waiting to watch the phenom Kevin Towers wants most but won’t get, Tommy Hanson, pitch for the Mesa Solar Sox against the Surprise Rafters before a crowd of about 57 (including nine scouts, as of 12:25 p.m.) in this Arizona Fall League tilt here at HoHoKam Stadium, and wondering what a pair of Solar Sox might feel like on a cold day. Like, for instance, the day we’ll endure Saturday when we go to the KU-Texas football game in Lawrence, Kan.
I just went back and checked, and it was Oct. 6 when I wrote a blog headlined, “Alabama son Peavy to pitch for Braves? It’s possible.” (And was ridiculed on that blog by a few suggesting we were merely drumming up offseason page hits, but I don’t like saying “Told you so,” so I’ll not do it.)
Anyway, here we are, 37 days later, and Braves Nation’s long nightmare drags on. Actually, it’ll only be a nightmare for most Braves fans if the deal falls through, but I’m sure — judging from responses here — there will be plenty of folks who also bemoan losing prospects, any prospects, all prospects, in any deal including one for a bona fide ace. Goes with the territory.
And there’s also no dismissing the fact that Peavy has had elbow and shoulder soreness in the past, enough to land him on the DL a few times, including once this past May (and that cropped up just five weeks into the season, never an encouraging development).
But all things considered, including the reasonable contract ($63 mill guaranteed over four seasons, or $81 mill over five) and the fact that Peavy’s ERA and strikeouts rank him near the top of major league pitching since he joined the league, and that overwhelming 2007 season that made him a unanimous Cy Young choice, and the fact that he’s from Alabama, grew up a Braves fan and still owns a home and a hunting lodge in ‘Bama … well, this is too good for the Braves to pass up, as long as they don’t give in and fork over the prospects Towers wants most (and they won’t, at least not Hanson or Jason Heyward).
Will they substitute big ol’ slugging catcher Tyler Flowers for highly rated center-field prospect Gorkys Hernandez as part of the package, as Towers has reportedly asked them to do? Possibly, but unlikely according to people I talk to. Because the Braves have so little catching depth in their minor league system, they’d either have to go get a backup or be prepared to turn over catching duties to Clint Sammons if Brian McCann got hurt and was out for any significant length. Can’t see Braves turning to Sammons, who’s just not been much of a hitter at the big-league level.
I think the Braves might be ready before long to bring up Flowers and give him a crack at the job if McCann got hurt. Flowers has continued to develop, after impressing Bobby Cox and others in spring training last year with the big club. He’s raking out here in the ‘Zona Fall League, and that’s obviously why Padres officials have come around to asking for him, I’m sure.
By the way, though Gorkys probably has a slightly higher upside (potential) than Jordan Schafer, I think the Braves are more inclined to give up Hernandez simply because Schafer is at least a year ahead of Gorkys in his development, and probably a couple of years ahead of him. Schafer can be ready this year, right out of spring training, I really believe that. And I think the Braves believe it, whether they say as much or not.
Anyway, Schafer’s done himself a favor by going to Mexico to play winter ball, if you ask me. Because I know in the past, not just with the Braves but other teams I’ve covered, certain players agree to go play winter ball and others don’t, and when tough decisions have to be made later by the front office, a player’s willingness to do whatever it takes to get better and work on deficiencies in his game.
Braves wanted Schafer to get more at-bats after he missed 50 games for his suspension last season, and instead of whining or saying he wanted to go home to work out and relax for the winter after an emotionally difficult season, Schafer said, “No problem,” and packed for the Mexican League, hardly a glamorous assignment.
Good point about economic impact: Buster Olney made a great observation in his ESPN blog this morning, pointing out that some free agents might be eager to take offers quickly this year when the period begins Friday where teams can make offers to all free agents instead of just their own.
The reason some might move quickly: The economy. It’s terrible and getting terrribler (not a word, but should be). Here in Phoenix, the D-Backs just announced they were eliminating about 30 front-office jobs, nearly 10 percent of their work force.
The Padres and D-Backs are slashing player payrolls, and as Buster pointed out, the Dodgers and Giants are obviously aware of this and might be less inclined to spend lavishly if the other two teams in their division are cutting back.
If an agent believes some other clubs might start cutting back as we get towards the new year, then that agent might advise his free-agent player to take the best offer he gets in the next couple weeks and opt for security of the chance to possibly hold out for a better deal only to see the economy continue to erode and more teams be given edicts from ownership to cut payroll.
Oddly enough, this situation might actually help the Braves, who for the first time in a long time have significant money available to spend on free agents or added salaries through trades. I asked Braves CEO Terry McGuirk right after the season whether the economy might have an effect on the team’s spending plans, and he said no, it was full speed ahead.
I asked Frank Wren the same question last week at the GM meetings and he said no, the Braves had no revised their outlook or their spending plans.
So with at least $40 mill available, and perhaps closer to $50 mill, for winter additions to next year’s payroll, the Braves are in position to quickly make a competitite offer or three to a free-agent pitcher or pitchers (or possibly power-hitting outfielder, though I sent they’d prefer to trade for that).
Ryan Dempster, Derek Lowe and A.J. Burnett are among the possible free agents targeted by the Braves, and it wouldn’t surprise me if they make offers to at least two of them by next week, if not by this weekend. This Peavy thing has frustrated the Braves, because it’s taking longer than they’d hoped and they don’t want to miss out on other pitchers or hitters while waiting to see if the Padres will take their offer of shortstop Yunel Escobar and a couple of prospects for Peavy.
They’d like to know if they’re going to get Peavy, because it could add some urgency to the need to get another No. 1-caliber starter if they are not likely to land the San Diego ace.
OK, back to the game here. Solar Sox scored twice in bottom of first to give their ace Hanson a 2-1 lead. I bet you that’ll be enough.
Second inning. Hanson gave up a couple of hits and a run - only the second against him all fall - in the first inning, but now he’s struck out the last two batters, one in the first and the first batter here in the second.
Impressive, yes. He throws hard, people, and he’s 6 feet 6 and mixes up his pitches, changing speeds and using both a hard-biting slider and a pretty big downward curve. Haven’t seen much of the changeup yet that he’s been working on.
We’ll keep you abreast as it goes on. He’s probably not going more than about five innings.
In the second inning, he struck out the first guy, then issued a walk before striking out the next two to end the inning. That’s 34 strikeouts and six walks this fall, folks. He’s completely dominating a league with some of the best prospects in baseball.
Dude sure looks ready to me.
”OUTFIT” by Jason Isbell (Drive-By Truckers)
You want to grow up to paint houses like me,
a trailer in my yard till you’re 23
You want to be old after 42 years,
keep dropping the hammer and grinding the gears.
Well, I used to go out in a Mustang,
a 302 Mach One in green.
Me and your Mama made you in the back,
and I sold it to buy her a ring.
And I learned not to say much of nothing,
and I figured you already know
But in case you don’t or maybe forgot,
I’ll lay it out real nice and slow:
Don’t call what you’re wearing an outfit.
Don’t ever say your car is broke.
Don’t worry about losing your accent,
a Southern Man tells better jokes.
Have fun but stay clear of the needle.
Call home on your sister’s birthday.
Don’t tell them you’re bigger than Jesus,
don’t give it away.
Six months in a St. Florian foundry,
they call it Industrial Park.
Then hospital maintenance and Tech School
just to memorize Frigidaire parts.
But I got to missing your Mama,
and I got to missing you too.
So I went back to painting for my old man,
and I guess that’s what I’ll always do
So don’t try to change who you are boy,
and don’t try to be who you ain’t.
And don’t let me catch you in Kendale
with a bucket of wealthy man’s paint.
Don’t call what your wearing an outfit.
Don’t ever say your car is broke.
Don’t sing with a fake British accent.
Don’t act like your family’s a joke.
Have fun, but stay clear of the needle,
call home on your sister’s birthday.
Don’t tell them you’re bigger than Jesus,
don’t give it away.
Don’t give it away.
Braves losing patience in Peavy watch
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Mesa, Ariz. _ Many are peeved waiting for Peavy, or rather waiting for Padres GM Kevin Towers to make a decision on where to trade San Diego’s ace Jake Peavy, to the Braves or Cubs (anyone who really believes Towers might decide that no offer suits his fancy and he’ll retain Peavy, there’s a guy who’s got some oceanside property here in Mesa for you to consider buying sight unseen).
Hey, the Braves are getting antsy, too, because of the Thursday deadline when teams’ exclusive 15-day negotiating window with their own free agents expires, and other teams can start making formal financial offers to any free agents on the market. That’s when the Braves want to be ready to make their best offers to land at least one free-agent pitcher, and perhaps two if they don’t think they’re getting Peavy.
They’ve made a very strong offer, which is believed to include top young shortstop Yunel Escobar, as well as either of their prized center-field prospects, Jordan Schafer or Gorkys Hernandez, and either starter Charlie Morton or frustraing-but-talented lefty Jo-Jo Reyes. The Padres have been holding out hope of squeezing top pitching prospect Tommy Hanson from the Braves, but that’s not going to happen.
They seem resigned to that fact now, and might just be trying to squeeze one more young pitching prospect out of the Braves’ system, possibly lefty Cole Rohrbough or lefty Jeff Locke, who are both top-10 Braves prospects.
The Braves have interest in, among other free-agent starters, Derek Lowe, Ryan Dempster and A.J. Burnett, and you can assume the Braves will be ready to up the intensity level trying to land one of them if they think they’re not going to get Peavy.
But it’s still only Tuesday, denizens of the Braves/MIB blog.
So put aside the emotions for a second, and consider what a Peavy acquisition could mean for the Braves for the next four or five seasons. (Yes, I still believe Braves are going to get him, and the Cubs are more leverage than anything else. If I’m wrong, it won’t be the first time.)
People, facts are facts: Peavy is 27 and had ERAs of 2.88 or lower in four of the past five seasons, including three consecutive seasons or 200 or more innings before missing a month in 2008 with a strained elbow.
He’s already the Padres’ career strikeouts leader and he’s signed to an affordable contract worth $59 million over the next four seasons, plus a $22 million option in 2013 or $4 million buyout.
He was a unanimous choice for the 2007 Cy Young Award, when he was 19-6 with a 2.54 ERA and 240 strikeouts with 68 walks in 223-1/3 innings (folks, that’s a season like the Braves used to get from members of their Big Three back in the day).
And his MRI when he went on the DL this season was reportedly clean, just like the one he got when the Padres signed him to his long-term contract a year ago.
Forget, for a moment, the frustration that some Braves fans are feeling because of the way this has dragged on, and the reluctance many feel about parting with the undeniably talented shortstop Yunel Escobar, and consider this bottom-line fact:
Peavy’s an elite starting pitcher, one of fewer than a dozen guys with legit No. 1-caliber talent and presence. Sure, every team has a pitcher in its No. 1 position, but only about a third of MLB teams have a pitcher in that spot who is an intimidating force that can set the tone for a series by completely dominating the opposition on a regular basis, who can reach back to make a pitch for a huge strikeout when it’s absolutely needed, time and time again.
Some here have compared Peavy to Tim Hudson, or rather the Hudson who was the American League’s winningest pitcher in the five years before Huddy came to the Braves. It’s a legit comparison.
Peavy has slightly better overall numbers over a five-year span, but the huge difference: The contract.
Huddy was going to be a free agent a year after the trade, and had issued a deadline of March 1 to get an extension done or said he wouldn’t negotiate during the season. He kept that demand in place after being traded to the Braves, who signed him to a four-year, $47 mill extension at the deadline.
Peavy is signed for four more years with an option for a fifth. Signed to a deal the Braves couldn’t dream of offering to a comparable level of free-agent pitcher and even expect to be among the highest bidders.
While I agree with a few denizens who believe the Braves’ offer is clearly better than the Cubs’ offer it’s also wrong to dismiss an offer that includes left-hander Sean Marshall, who is said to be part of the Cubs’ package and is the best pitcher being offered to the Padres by anyone.
The Braves lost their ace, Hudson, when he had Tommy John surgery that will likely sideline Hudson for all but the last month of the 2009 season, and possibly the entire season. (They have a $12 mill option on his contract for 2010, when the Braves envision a potentially overwhelming rotation of Peavy, Hudson, a free agent they sign this winter, Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson.
That’s a rotation with quality and depth to potentially compare with some of the dominant Braves rotations of the 1990s.
Losing Hudson made it imperative that the Braves this find a replacement No. 1 starter to replace him. Peavy happens to be a fellow Alabama native (yes, Hudson was born in Georgia, but only because there was no hospital in his Alabama hometown).
Peavy, by the way, was set to pitch for Auburn, like Hudson did, before Peavy signed with the Padres out of high school (St. Paul’s Episcopal of Mobile) in 1999.
He was a modest 10-11 in 27 starts this season, but that record is more indicative of the Padres’ anemic run support than Peavy’s performance. He had a 2.85 ERA and a solid 1.180 WHIP (walks-plus-hits per inning pitched) that was right at his career mark.
He received just under 3.7 support runs per nine innings pitched, including eight starts in which the Padres scored one or no runs while he was in.
Peavy’s got the dominant stuff and hard-nosed attitude, and by all accounts he’s a hard worker who sets a great example for teammates to follow. The whole package, according to a lot of people who should know, including Don Sutton.
Yes, that elbow is an undeniable cause for some concern. In May a sore elbow sidelined him four weeks. But when he came back, he recorded 13 quality starts in his last 18 games. If he was pitching with a damaged elbow, he pitched well.
In seven of his 13 starts after July 4, he allowed one or no runs in seven or more innings, including an Aug. 31 start against Colorado in which he threw eight scoreless innings of five-hit ball with 13 strikeouts and two walks.
He only made two starts in September, missing time to witness the birth of his third child. The Padres were so far out of contention, they were cautious bringing him back from that, especially in light of the earlier elbow issues.
Peavy also missed six weeks for a strained flexor tendon in that forearm/elbow in 2004, when he went 15-6 with a 2.27 ERA in 27 starts with 177 strikeouts in 163-1/3 innings.
In each of the next three seasons, he pitched over 200 innings with at least 215 strikeouts, including 223-1/3 innings with a league-high 240 strikeouts in 2007, when he finished 19-6 with a 2.54 ERA and won the Cy Young Award.
Out of curiosity, I went back through his day-by-days to early in the 2006 season to find a point where Peavy really struggled for any significant period. Then I checked his stats since, to compare him with some other relevent starters.
Since July 26, 2006, here are those results:
Jake Peavy has gone 36-20 with a 2.63 ERA, with a .215 opponents’ average, 490 strikeouts and 154 walks in 474-1/3 innings.
Brandon Webb is 44-22 with a 3.36 ERA, with a .239 opponents’ average, 436 strikeouts and 160 walks in 535-2/3 innings.
Johan Santana is 38-21 with a 2.82 ERA, with a .224 opponents’ average, 528 strikeouts and 134 walks in 536 innings.
CC Sabathia is 41-22 with a 2.91 ERA, with a .247 opponents’ average, 540 strikeouts and 113 walks in 585-1/3 innings.
A.J. Burnett is 36-23 with a 3.94 ERA, with a .239 opponents’ average, 472 strikeouts and 182 walks in 473 innings.
Tim Hudson is 32-21 with a 3.56 ERA, with a .257 opponents’ average, 273 strikeouts and 122 walks in 448 innings.
Derek Lowe is 35-26 with a 3.41 ERA, with a .250 opponents’ average, 343 sstrikeouts and 118 walks in 490-2/3 innings.
Ryan Dempster is 19-17 with 35 saves in 42 opportunities and a 3.59 ERA, with a .239 opponents’ average, 265 strikeouts and 121 walks in 303 innings.
Opening Sunday, again: For the second year in a row, the Braves have had their opening day game moved up a day to make it the national opening-night broadcast game on Sunday, April 5, at Philly against the World Series champs.
The game had been scheduled for Monday afternoon, April 6. The move was done without the Braves’ knowledge, since they aren’t required to approve a move of a road date within a series.
It means for the second year in a row, the Braves will scramble to move from Florida spring training to Atlanta for their final two exhibition games (against Detroit April 4-5) and then fly to Philly for the opener without a day off before the season begins.
Last year, the same scenario played out in Washington, where the Braves lost opening night, after playing two exhibition games at Atlanta the previous two days and not getting to work out on the new field at D.C.
This time it’s slightly better, in that the Braves were already scheduled to open the season with a series at Philly. Last year, the Braves were scheduled to open at home, and the Washington game was a special one-game opener created by taking a game out of a series at D.C. scheduled for later that month.
So this time around, at least the Braves won’t be playing three games in three different cities in three days, and playing opening night at D.C. one day and a home opener in Atlanta the next.
Still, it hardly seems ideal, going straight from two exhibition games in Atlanta to opening the next night on the road, without a day to work out before the season kicks off.
Then again, baseball didn’t ask the Braves about it. They told them they were dong it, after already making the schedule change. Baseball has that right.
“We were notified by MLB this week of the date and time change of Opening Day,” GM Frank Wren told me by e-mail yesterday, and I should make clear he wasn’t and didn’t complain about the move, just answered my question about it. “In the case of a road game, we would not have control over the change.”
He added, “The change will not affect our exhibition games with the Tigers.”
The rest of baseball will open the day after the Braves-Phillies opener.
The Braves, who had been scheduled to have an off day in the series at Philly on April 7, will instead play the three-game series April 5, then have a day off April 6 (other teams’ opening day), then finish the series April 7-8 (day game on 8th), then have another day off April 9.
Atlanta’s home opener is scheduled for Friday, April 10 vs. the Nationals.
Let it end, please: No, not the Peavy thing (though that, too). I’m talking about the incessant voice in my head that’s been singing Gordon Lightfoot’s “Carefree Highway” ever since I rode by the junction of Carefree Highway and I-17 Sunday on my ride up to Jerome, Ariz.
Maybe I can exorcise it by using the lyrics to another Lightfoot song that I actually loved back in my youth, when Top-40 was cool.
”SUNDOWN” by Gordon Lightfoot
I can see her lyin’ back in her satin dress
In a room where ya do what ya don’t confess
Sundown ya better take care
If I find you been creepin’ ‘round my back stairs
Sundown ya better take care
If I find you been creepin’ ‘round my back stairs
She’s been lookin’ like a queen in a sailor’s dream
And she don’t always say what she really means
Sometimes I think it’s a shame
When I get feelin’ better when I’m feelin’ no pain
Sometimes I think it’s a shame
When I get feelin’ better when I’m feelin’ no pain
I can picture every move that a man could make
Getting lost in her lovin’ is your first mistake
Sundown ya better take care
If I find you been creepin’ ‘round my back stairs
Sometimes I think it’s a sin
When I feel like I’m winnin’ when I’m losin again
I can see her lookin’ fast in her faded jeans
She’s a hard lovin’ woman, got me feelin’ mean
Sometimes I think it’s a shame
When I get feelin’ better when I’m feelin’ no pain
Sundown ya better take care
If I find you been creepin’ ‘round my back stairs
Sundown ya better take care
If I find you been creepin’ ‘round my back stairs
Sometimes I think it’s a sin
When I feel like I’m winnin’ when I’m losin’ again
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Rejuvenated as Peavy watch continues
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Mesa, Ariz. _ My batteries have had a very necessary recharge, folks. Just got back from a great ride up and back to Jerome, Ariz., the self-proclaimed “Hard-Drinking Biker Town With an Artist Problem” (the slogan on T-shirts you can buy up there).
For those not familiar with it, Jerome is an tiny old ghost town at 5,200 feet altitude, literally perched on the side of a mountain. These days it’s full of bars, gift shops, restaurants and art galleries, with an actual population of only about 1,200.
But on a weekend afternoon, there’s probably two or three times that many people in town, what with all the tourists and hundreds of bikers who ride all manner of two-wheeled beasts up the famous two-lane road from Prescott, Ariz. The route has about 120 or so switchback and hairpin curves and extreme grades, unfit for big trucks or anyone afraid of heights (some thousand-foot drops if you look over the edge of the low guardrails).
Anyway, your Crusading Everyman froze his butt off for about an hour at mid-ride. I rented a Harley and rode up from Mesa. Thankfully they gave me rain gear because it began pouring while I was eating lunch in Jerome. Rode down the mountain in heavy rain and 48-degree temps with thunder and lightning (kinda cool experiencing that while literally up in the cloud — but not something I want to do again).
Fortunately it stopped raining before I got back on the main highway to Phoenix (17, the one from Phoenix to Flagstaff), because going at high speeds would’ve been impossible if it hadn’t stopped raining. And fortunately, I bought a heavier pair of gloves at the Harley shop before I took off, because after those got soaked and my hands were freezing, I had to switch back to my older pair, which were nice and dry.
Man, does it smell good in the desert mountains after it rains. Can’t even describe how fresh it smells up there. There’s no better way to experience this big ol’ country of ours than on a motorcycle, I can tell you that. Any of our denizens or other readers who have a bike, wouldn’t you agree? No doubt.
Anyway, I’m here for the Arizona Fall League to do two or three stories on Braves prospects that will run later this week, including a story on the man of the hour, Tommy Hanson, and one of Paul Bunyon-esque catcher Tyler Flowers, who’s tied for the AFL lead with seven homers.
But since they don’t play AFL games on Sunday, and since I had a pretty good feeling nothing would happen on the trade front today, I decided to use the afternoon wisely (but took my laptop in my backpack just in case, with it wrapped in a plastic hotel-room laundry bag anticipating rain).
In the back of my mind the whole ride up there, I was thinking, worrying, “This will be the Sunday when the biggest trade since Tim Hudson goes down, when I get a call two hours outside Phoenix announcing the trade” — so I took my laptop just in case, with my wireless broadband card. Fortunately, didn’t have to use it.
Now, where were we? Oh, yeah, waiting for a possible trade involving Jake Peavy. You’ve perhaps heard the Braves are trying to get the Padres ace? Yes, thought you might have.
Folks, barring some surprising late push from a team that simply overwhelms the Padres with a new offer, it’s going to be the Braves or Cubs who land the 2007 Cy Young Award winner. And since the few other teams Peavy would agree to be traded to seemingly don’t have the package of prospects that they are willing to part with and would satisfy what Padres GM Kevin Towers is looking for, I’m fairly certain it’ll be the Braves or Cubs.
And since the various possible offers from the Cubs that have been reported thus far seem to fall short of the Braves’ likely offer of Yunel Escobar, Gorkys Hernandez or Jordan Schafer, and one or two pitching prospects from a group that might include Charlie Morton, Jo-Jo Reyes, or one of the younger guys (not named Hanson), I’m still of the belief that the Braves are favored over the Cubs to get Peavy.
But I also know that some others think the Cubs moved ahead, for whatever reason. So we’ll see. I do think it’ll happen well before the December 7-11 Winter Meetings in Vegas, and probably before Thanksgiving. But whether it’ll be in the next week, I’m not as certain. But there’s a decent chance.
The Braves would like it to happen yesterday, or last week. In other words, as soon as possible. Because while they are moving forward and discussing other trades and talking to free agents’ representatives, they really need to know whether they’re likely to land Peavy before they start allocating major trade pieces toward other deals, including a power-hitting outfielder.
For instance, if the Braves aren’t going to trade Escobar (or Kelly Johnson, though the Padres seem unlikely to accept KJ as a centerpiece) in a Peavy deal, then they could make a stronger bid for Cardinals OF Ryan Ludwick, whose 37 homers last season were 10 more than all Braves outfielders combined. (Think about that, folks. It’s amazing, really is.)
And if they’re not going to land Peavy, the Braves need to be ready to make substantial offers to a couple of other premier starters, though the bidding is going to be high for any legit No. 1-type starter available, even the injury-plagued ones.
OK, that’s all for now. Try to be patient a little longer, denizens. I think we’re about to finally start seeing some action, or at least some new rumors this week. And if we don’t, well, we can keep questioning the integrity of everyone involved in the current rumors, right? Good. It’s a plan. Ready, break.
Diversions: Bubdylan (one of our denizens) wanted a list of 10 James McMurtry tunes he should download, sans big James’ more political stuff. While some of his protest tunes are my favorites, we can certainly get you that list, Bubdylan. Here’s one gem that fits the bill:
”HURRICANE PARTY” by James McMurtry
The hurricane party’s windin’ down and we’re all waitin’ for the end
And I don’t won’t another drink, I only want that last one again
He gave me such a fine glow, smokin’ slow, now I should probably be homeward bound
There’s just no one to talk to when the lines go down
I guess that in the morning I’ll go lookin’ for my gray-striped cat
My old house can take the weather so I’m not too concerned about that
It was built to take the wind back in nineteen-and-ten when this was one damned fine town
But now there’s no one to talk to when the lines go down
Candles flickered on the back bar and the building was shakin’ with the wind
I bought a whiskey for the gypsy and she turned my leather back into skin
Just a fleeting sense of that rare suspense I once thought made the world go round
But now there’s no one to talk to when the lines go down
Open up your back screen door
Let me see your face once more
My hands are cold and my feet so sore
And I can’t go on this way
And the thoughts come too fast and too many to keep count, best just to let ‘em on through
Now I’m breaking those glass insulators with my old 22
Off the telephone polls as a half dollar rolls across the knuckles of a rodeo clown
There’s just no one to talk to when the lines go down
My one great love, my God, I can feel her still
She ran off to California and now she’s living in those Hollywood Hills
With some bullfrog prince, I’ve not seen her since
Though she calls when he’s out of town
And there’s no one to talk to when the lines go down
Open up your back screen door
Let me in your space once more
I was looking for an easy score
But it just don’t work that way
Some insurance-man biker is yellin’ out for one more beer
But a part-time pirate just can’t get much respect around here
We got our problems too, man we’ll get to you
In just a minute, sit your drunk ass down
Yeah, there’s no one to talk to when the lines go down
Now there’s water up past the wheel wells of my Ford and I don’t guess that it’ll run
But I left a pack of Winston’s on the dash, could you fetch ‘em for me son?
The morning’s first cigarette, that’s as good as it gets all day I should know by now
But there’s no one to talk to when the lines go down
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Pondering a Jake for Yunel, Gorkys, Charlie….
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
A few thoughts while packing (again) for a trip to Arizona tomorrow to see Tommy Hanson and other Braves prospects in the Fall League, and thinking that FX’s The Shield and Sons of Anarchy are better than anything on the big networks, and, oh yeah, pondering the Braves possibly including center-field prospect Gorkys Hernandez and pitcher Charlie Morton along with Yunel Escobar (the centerpiece from Atlanta’s end) and another, lesser prospect in the trade for San Diego Padres ace Jake Peavy.
Maybe you’ve heard the Braves are pursuing Peavy, yes? There’s been a little written about it recently.
But seriously, the inclusion of Hernandez in the past couple of days was a development we thought would probably eventually occur, since the Braves had made it known they were flatly refusing to include either of their top two prospects, pitcher Tommy Hanson and outfielder Jason Heyward.
And since the Padres need young outfield depth in addition to pitching, it seemed inevitable that Jordan Schafer or Hernandez would have to be included eventually, since the Braves didn’ want to three or four of their top pitching prospects not named Hanson to the Padres along with Escobar.
So they’re going from a positions of strength, center field and pitching, in addition to the painful but apparently no-way-around-it part of the deal, Escobar. (Braves would probably prefer to trade second baseman Kelly Johnson, whom they could replace from within, but the Padres want Escobar badly.)
Schafer and Hernandez are both center fielders, and both were among the Braves’ top-five prospects entering the 2008 according to Baseball America. Schafer will slip from his No. 1 perch when the new list is out, after his 50-game suspension for alleged HGH use last season.
But he’s still regarded by the Braves as a potential future All-Star, just as Hernandez is. While Hernandez has more speed (blazing, blazing speed) and range, and probably a slightly stronger arm, Schafer is a couple of years ahead of him in development, has more power, and might legitimately be ready to play CF for the Braves in 2009.
Charlie Morton might develop into a top-half-of-rotation starter in the future, but for now his confidence and aggressiveness are far behind his stuff. Let’s just say, there are plenty more questions about him, in the eyes of those who’ve seen both, than there are about Hanson.
The irony is that trading Escobar to the Padres is, according to Peavy’s agent, something that could possibly affect the Alabama native’s decision on whether to waive his no-trade clause and agree to a trade to the Braves.
At least that’s what agent Barry Axelrod indicated to the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Tom Krasovic. Axelrod told the Padres beat writer that the Padres had not yet asked for approval on a trade, but in preparing for that request that could come soon, he and Peavy have been evaluating potential trade partners.
Peavy’s knows the World Series-winning Phillies and big-payrolled Mets are in the East with the Braves, and he wants to make sure he goes to a competitive team, not just one located close to the house he keeps in his hometown of Semmes, Ala.
“One of the things we will want to look at some point is, ‘Who are you giving up? How much are you weakening your team to make this deal?’” Axelrod told the San Diego newspaper. “If Team X trades three starting pitchers and a starting shortstop to get Jake Peavy, that lessens their chance of being a successful team.”
In the midst of these developments the past couple of days, there were hints and statements from San Diego Padres’ officials that the Cubs had moved even or ahead of the Braves in the race for Peavy. And that an unnamed third team was also in the mix (widely believe to be the Dodgers, although there remain many skeptics who don’t believe Towers would actually trade Peavy to the division rival from just up the freeway, and that he’s only using the Dodgers to leverage more talent out of the Braves or Cubs in a trade).
Before we go any further, let me point out that Axelrod is also a close friend of Padres GM Kevin Towers, and also used to represent the manager. Towers, by the way, said this week that there’s very little chance he doesn’t trade Peavy this winter, that “the train has left the station.”
I point this out, about their friendship, because it’s raised eyebrows in the past and I heard some mention it again during the GM meetings.
Anyway, I asked Axelrod this morning if he could clarify the comments he made to Krasovic, a veteran reporter most of us refer to as “Kras.”
Axelrod took the time to send me an e-mail explaining:
“In my conversation with Kras,” Axelrod wrote, “he asked if there had been any approval in advance of trades to any team, as had been reported in some media. I told him that there had not been and that the reason for that is that we would want to fully analyze any potential destination team in terms of a variety of factors (ownership, management, farm system, ballpark, training staff, etc.), which would include the winning prospects for the team.
“Obviously, the personnel in the lineup would be a factor and that can’t be analyzed until we know who might be included in the trade going back to the Padres. The reference to Escobar was by example only. If you read the full quote, I said something about a team giving up three starting pitchers and a starting shortstop which would materially alter the makeup of that team after the trade. I could just have easily used Kershaw and Billingsley with the Dodgers or Harden and DeRosa of the Cubs. I was just explaining by using an example. I did not mean to infer that the Braves would not be acceptable if Escobar were no longer there.”
He added: “I have said that in some ways this situation is like free agency for Jake and that we are approaching it that way. By that, I mean that he has some choice in where he ends up and, in order to make that choice most prudently, we should take the opportunity to examine any situation where he might eventually end up. That is why we would look at team makeup and have an opinion on it. It would be unusual in a normal trade situation, but this is a situation where there is a full no trade involved, which makes it a little different.”
I also asked him if he thought the Cubs had assumed “the lead” in the race for Peavy and whether negotiations with the Braves had reached a standstill.
“I don’t know which team has the lead here and that is not in our control,” he replied. “Once the Padres tell us they have something on the burner and ask for approval, we will know who the leading contender is, but that has not happened.
“I don’t think talks are at a standstill. I know that Towers was talking to teams right up to the end of the GM meetings and my impression is that the Braves were one of the teams.”
Inside the Braves’ offices, if this deal falls through, I wonder if some might be uncomfortable about Peavy’s agent and Towers’ friend Axelrod having a potentially significant level of influence on this situation.
Of course, Peavy certainly has that right, as a guy with a full no-trade clause. But the appearance, well, you can see where it might not sit well with some.
It’s become obvious that if the Braves included Hanson, this deal would have been done. But the Braves aren’t going to include Hanson, who could well be the No. 1 pitching prospect in all of baseball, and is projected to be an eventual top-of-the-rotation starter by the Braves.
For now, they see him as possibly part of a dream rotation in 2010 that would include Peavy, another veteran (probably free agent) to be acquired this winter, Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens and Hanson.
And while Axelrod and Peavy might rightly assume the Braves would not be as good up the middle defensively if Escobar is traded, I’m guessing that the Braves would surely intend to replace Escobar with another proven shortstop, not by plugging the gap with Omar Infante, Martin Prado or Brent Lillibridge.
The Braves have replaced shortstops in the past, acquiring Edgar Renteria for 2007 after Rafael Furcal left as a free agent, them handing the reins to Escobar in 2008 after trading Renteria to Detroit for the aforementioned Gorkys Hernandez and Jurrjens.
They probably believe they could do it again, acquiring either a free agent (Renteria’s available, as are Orlando Cabrera and Caesar Izturis or, if they want to spend bigger, Furcal) or by trading for someone like Julio Lugo, J.J. Hardy or Maicer Izturis. This time, the Braves have more money to spend than they had in the recent past when they had to replace a shortstop.
Would any of them be as good as Escobar? Maybe. Maybe not. Maybe one would be better, at least for 2009. You don’t know. But as much as I like Escobar and believe, as the Braves do, that he’s a potential future All-Star, let’s not act as though his offense is irreplaceable. Look at the numbers.
If the Padres are angling to get Hanson in the deal instead of Escobar, it’s almost certainly not going to work. Everything I’ve heard is that the Braves are flat-out not going to trade Hanson. Can’t say that I blame them. You don’t trade potential No. 1 starters who are so close to being ready (you think Detroit would ask for a do-over on the Jurrjens trade?).
While it’s still early in the offseason and the free-agent filing period hasn’t even ended, the problem with the Peavy thing potentially dragging out is that it’s the key piece for the Braves, who need to move on to trying to secure another No. 1-caliber pitcher if they aren’t going to get Peavy.
The Braves can’t go full-bore into those other pitchers if they think they’re going to land Peavy, or even if they believe there’s a good chance they will.
Personally, I still get the impression that Atlanta is the favorite, because the names I hear thrown around connected to the Cubs’ bid just don’t strike me as a more attractive package for the payroll-slashing Padres.
But who knows how the Padres view it? So much posturing, so many leaks from so many different media members’ sources, some with agendas, some lacking actual knowledge and merely speculating.
One minute, the Braves are the leading suitor. Next the Dodgers. Then the Cubs.
It will end soon. It must. Mustn’t it? Please, let it end.
“SWEET THING” by Van Morrison
And I will stroll the merry way
And jump the hedges first
And I will drink the clear
Clean water for to quench my thirst
And I shall watch the ferry-boats
And they’ll get high
On a bluer ocean
Against tomorrow’s sky
And I will never grow so old again
And I will walk and talk
In gardens all wet with rain
Oh sweet thing, sweet thing
My, my, my, my, my sweet thing
And I shall drive my chariot
Down your streets and cry
‘Hey, it’s me, I’m dynamite
And I don’t know why’
And you shall take me strongly
In your arms again
And I will not remember
That I even felt the pain.
We shall walk and talk
In gardens all misty and wet with rain
And I will never, never, never
Grow so old again.
Oh sweet thing, sweet thing
My, my, my, my, my sweet thing
And I will raise my hand up
Into the night time sky
And count the stars
That’s shining in your eye
Just to dig it all an’ not to wonder
That’s just fine
And I’ll be satisfied
Not to read in between the lines
And I will walk and talk
In gardens all wet with rain
And I will never, ever, ever, ever
Grow so old again.
Oh sweet thing, sweet thing
Sugar-baby with your champagne eyes
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Eating, observing, waiting for Peavy deal
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Dana Point, Calif. _ A few thoughts while contemplating how well-heeled and privileged anyone automatically looks while sitting at white-umbrella’d tables on the St. Regis dining veranda, out there on the immaculately manicured lawn behind this stately oceanfront resort, where I just saw major league-team officials dining (you dine there, you don’t simply eat) while I scarfed a $5 bag of potato chips and a $5 coffee from the absurdly overpriced coffee shop off the main lobby.
I know, you have no pity. After all, if you’re like me you’d rather have the Big Mama burrito I had for breakfast at the dive bar/restaurant at the Dania Beach Wharf, where fishing boats were pulling out of the harbor and a gorgeous SoCal waitress with no makeup and her hair pulled up in a rubber band kept my coffee cup full while I read the paper and ate (you eat there, you don’t dine).
Anyway, it’s a new day in America, but not much if anything has changed for baseball teams and top free agents, who are basically recession- and depression-proof, as we’re about to find out when Manny Ramirez and CC Sabathia land multi-year contracts worth more than $25 million annually, and Mark Teixeira gets something comparable or his agent (and Manny’s) isn’t Scott Boras.
But most of you probably want to know about the Braves and not about guys (Manny, CC, Tex) they aren’t going to sign, right?
OK, not much new to report on the Jake Peavy front. Waiting to talk to Frank Wren and hopefully Kevin Towers later today, but not expecting anything to have changed, to tell you the truth.
Despite what you might hear about they’re being seven teams — the Angels and Yankees along with the five previously named NL teams — that could be in the running, Towers has told a couple of people that it’s three teams in the Peavy race right now, and that he’s well into negotiations with two of them.
The Braves are one of those teams, and I think the Cubs are the other, though I’m not certain of that. Might also be the Dodgers, though I still find it hard to believe he’d trade Peavy to San Diego’s NL West rival just up the freeway.
The consensus among folks I talk to is that the Braves have been and still are the favorites to land the Alabama native and 2007 Cy Young Award winner, though it will likely cost them shortstop Yunel Escobar and a package of a few other prospects including at least two pitchers not named Tommy Hanson (Braves aren’t trading Hanson, period.)
While I’m thinking about it, let me reiterate a few things I’ve heard in the past couple days: 1. The Braves will NOT trade both Escobar and Kelly Johnson this offseason, though that doesn’t mean they wouldn’t trade one. 2. Braves might have gotten a casual inquiry or two about Jeff Francoeur, but they have not, repeat not, so far talked trade with any team about the right fielder. So don’t believe those rumors. Sure, that could change, but so far there’s been nothing doing on that front, and it sounds like Braves fully expect to have Francoeur in RF when the 2009 season begins. 3. The Braves met with Mike Hampton’s agent Tuesday, and both sides understand Hampton will see what else is out there but would like to come back to Atlanta if he doesn’t get as good or better offer from a team closer to his kids in Arizona. 4. There’s a couple other Japanese pitchers who are about to become free agents and might have interest from the Braves, but these are guys in their early 30s, who’ve gone through the eight years in the Japanese professional league to get their free agency (as opposed to Junichi Tazawa, 22, who the Braves just made a multi-year offer, a right-hander who’s going straight from Japan’s industrial league to America, which doesn’t sit well with Japanese pro-league folks, by the way). Oh, and 5. The new Q-Tip solo CD is supposed to be outstanding, as good as his best work back in the day with Tribe Called Quest.
OK, where were we?
Would a package of Escobar and, for instance, pitchers Kris Medlen and Charlie Morton, plus perhaps a lesser prospect, get the Peavy deal done? I’m going to go out on a limb and say probably so, because Escobar is regarded highly around baseball. More highly than some Braves fans might realize, folks who got a little turned off at times during his injury-plagued and occasionally temper-flaring season.
He’s got a cannon arm, great hands, a passion to play, and natural power that’s going to (probably) translate to 15-25 homers a season and a ton of doubles, in addition to a high average and OBP.
But there’s still that “probably” in there. It’s not a slam-dunk that Escobar is going to be an elite all-around shortstop you can build around. I’d bet that he will be, but it’s not guaranteed.
And even if he does become that, and one of the pitchers they trade becomes a solid major league starter, well, you know what? That’s a price you’re going to have to pay to get a 27-year-old ace in his prime, a Cy Young Award winner in 2007 who many believe to be one of the 10 best starters in baseball.
Only question about Peavy, and I mean the only question, is whether his elbow can hold up to that violent delivery for the rest of his contract. But hey, how many pitchers in baseball can you say aren’t at risk to have a season-ending injury and require surgery? Guys whose mechanics were described as flawless in the past, such as Mark Prior, have been constantly injured, while guys with unorthodox mechanics, such as Tim Lincecum, haven’t had any health woes.
John Smoltz has as pretty and consistent a delivery as anyone, and he’s had five arm surgeries.
Peavy’s had a couple of stints on the DL for elbow soreness, including one before the All-Star break last season. But he hasn’t had surgery and his MRI was reportedly clean (I know, I know, some of you are saying the MRI doesn’t show everything every time, but it does almost always show ligament tears that require Tommy John surgery; just ask Tim Hudson, who didn’t have any significant elbow pain when he went in for an MRI that showed not one, but two, ligament tears, necessitating the Tommy John surgery that’s likely to sideline him until at least late August and possibly the entire 2009 season).
We can assume the Braves would give him another MRI and examine it very closely, given the investment they’d be putting in him and the players they’d be giving up to get him.
Is he damaged? People, just look at how well Peavy pitched when he got back from the DL. If he was hurt, he’s a helluva pitcher when he’s hurt.
Denizens of Braves/MIB, here’s what it comes down to: Jake Peavy on a competitive team should be good for 15-20 wins, 200 innings and 200 strikeouts, on average, for the duration of his contract, whether that’s four years and $63 million of five years at $81 if the option is exercised.
And ask yourself this question: How many teams have won championships in recent years without a bonafide No. 1 starter, a guy you can turn to for Game 7 and say, “Here, now go hold the other team to one or no runs, dude.”
If Braves are serious about returning to the playoffs after a three-year absence, and doing some serious damage when they get to the playoffs, then they need a No. 1 starter. And unless they think they can pay the going rate for an A.J. Burnett (he’s injury prone and will probably get a four-year contract worth at least $68 million; who would you rather have?) or roll the dice on Ben Sheets (he’s so injury prone, he hadn’t won more than 12 games in a season before this one), or get into a bidding war for Derek Lowe, who’s getting up there in years and isn’t the No. 1 the way that Peavy is a No. 1 … well, you get my point.
Gotta do it, don’t you? Long as you don’t have to give up Hanson or Jason Heyward, or multiple prospects from the group that includes your Schafers and Gorkys Hernandezes and Freddie Freeemans, it other words as long as it’s not a system-purging deal, the Braves have to pull the trigger on Peavy if they’re not sure they can get another affordable, legit No. 1.
OK, let me know what you think about that, while I go roam the marble-floored hallways of this posh resort in my Chuck Taylors, looking for crumbs of news (or crumbs from the entrees they were dining on out on the veranda while ago).
GOIN’ OUT WEST by Tom Waits
Well I’m goin’ out west
Where the wind blows tall
‘Cause Tony Franciosa
Used to date my ma
They got some money out there
They’re giving it away
I’m gonna do what I want
Do what I want
And I’m gonna get paid
Little brown sausages
Lying in the sand
I ain’t no extra baby
I’m a leading man
Well my parole officer
WIll be proud of me
With my Olds 88
And the devil on a leash
My Olds 88
And the devil on a leash
Well I kno karate, Voodoo too
I’m gonna make myself available to you
I don’t need no make up
I got real scars
I got hair on my chest
I look good without a shirt
Well I don’t lose my composure
In a high speed chase
Well my friends think I’m ugly
I got a masculine face
I got some dragstrip courage
I can really drive a bed
I’m gonna change my name
To Hannibal or maybe
Just Rex
Change my name to Hannibal
Or maybe just Rex
I’m gonna drive all night
Take some speed
I’m gonna wait for the sun
To shine down on me
I cut a hole in my roof
In the shape of a heart
And I’m goin’ out west
Where they’ll appreciate me
Goin’ out west
Goin’ out west
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Braves serious about Japanese pitcher
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Dana Point, Calif. — While Braves officials continue their pursuit of Jake Peavy, they’re also moving forward on other pitching fronts. Namely one on the other side of the Pacific Rim.
I’m told the Braves have already offered a major league contract to Junichi Tazawa, the Japanese right-hander who’s drawn serious interest from Boston, Seattle and possibly the Cubs and Marlins.
Meanwhile, Mike Hampton’s agent, Mark Rodgers, is here at the GM meetings talking to the Braves and other teams about the injury-plagued veteran left-hander whose stock rose sharply with his second-half performance for Atlanta.
The Braves have exclusive negotiating rights to Hampton for the 15-day period that began the day after the World Series ended, but other teams are free to talk to his representative and express their interest, and believe me, teams frequently break that rule and talk financial terms during that period.
As for Tazawa, you might be saying, why would the 22-year-old free agent choose the Braves over, say, the Red Sox, where his countryman Daisuke “Dice-K” Matsuzaka has thrived and been embraced by Red Sox Nation?
Glad you asked.
That major league contract is one potential big reason. It’s unclear whether other teams were inclined to give him a major league contract, and if they don’t it would be a big plus in the Braves’ corner.
Major league contracts are guaranteed and come with a place on the 40-man roster, and Tazawa would probably have a much better chance of pitching in the majors next season if he signs a major league deal rather than a minor league or split contract with different salaries for time spent in the majors or minors.
Seattle is scheduled to meet with Tazawa during the Japanese Industrial League championship series that starts Nov. 13. It’s unclear when the Red Sox and other teams might meet with him or offer contracts.
The Red Sox had reportedly been the most aggressive team with Tazawa, but this major league offer by the Braves might have changed that perception. Unless the Red Sox have already made an offer that’s been kept secret, which seems unlikely given the veracity with which the Japanese media has covered developments in this story.
One major league team official told me today that Tazawa is comparable to Tim Hudson, but with a better curveball. He was described as a “battler” who has a mid-90s fastball, a split-finger pitch and a big, old-school 12-to-6 curveball (that’s a term that refers to the big downward break of the pitch, as in the 12 and 6 o’clock positions on a clock).
Tazawa’s an unusual case in that he pitched for a company team in Japan and made it known that he didn’t want to be drafted by a Japanese professional team because he wanted to go pitch in the United States, in the majors.
All 12 Japanese pro teams passed on him and now he’ll get his wish, apparently. Next stop, American spring training. But will it be at Dark Star with the Braves, or perhaps Fort Myers with the Sox?
I’m still trying to find out how much the Braves have offered Tazawa, but I’m told by one person familiar with Japanese baseball that was probably comparable to what a high first-round draft pick might get. Of that, I’m just not sure.
Suffice to say, if the Braves could pull off a trade for Peavy and sign Tazawa, they would be off to a rousing start to their offseason. But those are two big “ifs.”
Personally, I still believe the Braves are favorites to land Peavy. Can’t say the same thing about the Japanese pitcher, because I’m just not familiar enough with the situation.
Seems to me that if the Red Sox want him Tazawa bad enough, they’ll have to offer a major league contract now, and they could certainly raise the price if they so desire.
The same can’t be said for Peavy, because a big wallet isn’t going to help land the Padres’ ace. Young talent is going to do that trick. Might be just a matter of whether the Braves are willing to give up shortstop Yunel Escobar and a couple of prospects not named Hanson and Heyward.
Best of a generation: To me there’s little room for debate. Greg Maddux is the best pitcher in a generation, and certainly belongs in the discussion for best pitcher of the past 50 years. Roger Clemens is really the only guy you can mention in his class in the past 25 years, and there is a bit of a stain on Roger’s record, in the eyes of many.
We bring this up because agent Scott Boras announced yesterday that Maddux is leaning strongly toward retiring. Mad Dog, with his four Cy Young Awards and 355 wins and peerless consistency, is apparently ready to ride off into the sunset, though he could undoubtedly get another contract and pick up another 10 wins or so for a decent team with some run support.
Hey, when you’re a mortal-lock first-ballot Hall of Famer in your early 40s, what’s the point? Nothing more to prove.
So what do you guys think? Is he the best of the generation? I mean, several other pitchers had three- or five-year stretches where they were the best in the game, including Pedro, Randy, Johan. But I’m talking about an entire career. Only Clemens has the stats to compare with Maddux.
If he retires he’ll go in the Hall in five years. So here’s the other question: Is there a chance that one of the former Braves Big Three could go in with him?
It’s pretty clear that Smoltz plans to pitch again next season, and the Braves will sign him if he can make it back from shoulder surgery.
But what about Tom Glavine? He’s coming back from shoulder and elbow surgeries, and while he’s progressing, he isn’t throwing yet and hasn’t decided if he’ll pitch again. If he retires, his 300 wins probably assures Glavine of first-ballot Hall election, too.
I asked Glavine this morning, via e-mail, if he’d talked to his pal Maddux recently or had heard that Boras said he’s leaning toward retirement.
“I Hadn’t heard about Greg,” he replied in an e-mail. “It will be interesting to see what he does.”
And how’s Glavine doing?
“I am doing well,” he wrote. “Rehab 3 days a week. I haven’t started throwing yet, probably around Christmas. I feel good about the way things have gone, but won’t really know until I start throwing. I hope things go well and I can play next year, but really have to wait and see.”
“HEART & MIND” by The Clash
My mind say stop, my heart say go
My heart say kill, my mind say no
I don’t know, which way should I choose?
Well I know a man, he’s my friend
But he steals from a family of friends
But I could never tell that man good-bye
I got a heart, I got a mind
But I can’t keep them in time
I got a heart, I got a mind
But I can’t keep them in time
It’s the same for everyone
Stuck between the right and wrong
But you just gonna tell you which way
Someone comes, and someone kills
Someone chews a lot of pills
But you can put your self up to say so
You got a heart, you got a mind
But you can’t keep them in time
You got a hea-ar-art, you got a mind
But you can’t keep them in time
If only I could keep my heart and mind i tact
But sometimes someone’s wise,
Sometimes I want _
I got a heart, I got a mind
But I can’t tell love apart
I got a heart, I got a mind
But I can’t tell love apart
Hea-ar-ar-ar-art, I got a mi-i-i-i-ind
But I ca-a-a-a-an’t keep them in time
I got a hea-ar-ar-ar-art, I got a mi-i-i-i-ind
But I ca-a-a-a-an’t tell love apart
It’s very difficult
We got the keys
To your heart
I got the keys, keys
To your heart, heart
And I got ‘em
On my chain, on my chain
I got the keys
To your heart, heart
And I got ‘em
On my chain, on my chain
I got the keys, keys
To your heart, heart
And I got ‘em
On my chain, on my chain
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Welcome to Peavy Auction, er, GM meetings
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
While recovering from an ear-pummeling night at the Drive-By Truckers show, figured we should file a fresh blog before the early morning flight Monday to California and the GM meetings, a.k.a. the Jake Peavy Auction.
In the immortal words of Tom Waits:
“Well I’m goin’ out west, where the wind blows tall
‘Cause Tony Franciosa used to date my ma”
Now where were we? Oh, Peavy.
I don’t know if a trade will be finalized for the Padres ace this week, but the groundwork could at least be laid as the Braves and other teams ramp up the Peavy negotiations with San Diego GM Kevin Towers.
Oh, while I’m thinking about it, I’d just like to say that if my hearing’s permanently damaged — we awoke this morning thinking it might be — I’m blaming Mike Cooley, as I was standing 15 feet in front of the Truckers guitarist during the concert at Tabernacle, third stop of their “Rock and Roll Means Well” tour with The Hold Steady.
Anyway, that’s the price a middle-ager pays for serious rock from close range.
But back to the GM meetings. Are you good people ready to finally get this offseason market open in earnest, to replace the same old rumors with new developments and actual negotiations? Something tells me you’re (at least) as eager as I am for that.
A warning: We might go four days without anything significant happening at the general managers’ gathering at a posh resort in Dana Point, Calif. These aren’t the Winter Meetings, after all.
That’s where the action really gets going, and that’s not for another month, out in Vegas (where there might be plenty of other action, too. What pagan picked Vegas?)
But there’s reason to pay attention this week, because Braves GM Frank Wren has shown in the past that he’s not shy about pulling the trigger on a deal if the opportunity presents itself. That could happen at any time.
It’s been quite a while since the Braves entered an offseason with as much money to spend (probably more than $40 million) or as many major needs to fill (two proven starting pitchers and a power-hitting outfielder).
So there has been, and will continue to be, a lot of interest and rumors involving the Braves’ push to fill those needs. But they’re also not going to be pressured into making a move quickly out of panic or just to satisfy skeptics.
“We’re prepared to move on something if the opportunity is there,” Wren said when I talked to him Saturday, before he and top assistants headed to Southern California. “I still think people are going to be, to some degree, looking at free-agent market and how that develops, and that’s still a couple weeks away.”
Plenty of teams will be patient and see how the market begins to shape up, and which free agents are offered arbitration by their current teams before a Dec. 1 deadline to do so. By waiting until then to sign some players who aren’t offered arbitration, a team can sometimes avoid giving up a compensatory draft pick.
If a free agent isn’t offered arbitration by his current team, that team doesn’t get compensation, regardless of the free agent’s ranking.
“It’s all part of it,” Wren said of offseason process. “We’ve got some ideas of what we can do and what we want to do, but until we get in that market we won’t know exactly. But we’re prepared. If a trade presents itself in the next seven to 10 days, we’re prepared to make a deal.”
Speaking of free-agent rankings, in case you missed it when I posted the blog comment Saturday regarding Will Ohman: His end-of-season slump dropped him from would-be Class B status, meaning the Braves won’t get compensation if another team signs the lefty reliever.
“We would have liked to have had a draft pick for him, if we don’t re-sign him,” said Wren, who at the July 31 trade deadline said the Braves held onto Ohman in large part because they didn’t get any offers they deemed good enough to forgo a draft pick they might get for Ohman if they lost him as a free agent.
Wren told me Saturday the Braves have interest in re-signing Ohman, as well as their other key free agents, John Smoltz and Greg Norton.
The Smoltz matter has been covered at length here and elsewhere. But just to reiterate: Wren and the Braves plan to wait until later this winter, perhaps not until January, to see if the 41-year-old pitcher, recovering from shoulder surgery, has a better idea whether he’ll be able to pitch next season.
The Braves might also have to wait to see where the market goes for Ohman and other lefties before knowing if they can/will make a competitive offer for the reliever, who has indicated a desire to return if there’s a good offer.
As for Norton, Wren said he’s talked to the veteran pinch-hitter’s agent a couple of times. Sounds to me like that could be a deal that gets done and perhaps relatively quickly, though that’s merely my gut feeling.
In the meantime, the Braves won’t put all eggs in one proverbial basket regarding Peavy, the 2007 Cy Young Award winner who’s under contract for four more years, or five if an option is exercised in 2012 (he’s owed $63 million over four years if that option isn’t exercised, $81 mill over five if it is).
They want him badly, but talks have been at a standstill for more than a week as the Braves have refused to include top prospects including pitcher Tommy Hanson and outfielder Jason Heyward in the multi-prospect/player package the Padres want for a 27-year-old who is a top-tier pitcher by any reasonable standard.
Peavy’s a bonafide ace, an Alabama native who loves the South and grew up a Braves fan and has indicated he’d waive his no-trade clause to come to Atlanta. His only resume blemish: DL stints for elbow soreness — one this season — and an unorthodox delivery that some have described as “violent” and have speculated will make him more prone to major injury.
Regardless, at least a handful of NL teams that Peavy might agree to be traded to have expressed interest, and the Padres were expected to talk this weekend to the Cubs, Brewers and Cardinals to gauge what they might part with to get him.
The Peavy rumors will undoubtedly pick up this week when the GMs convene in Dana Point, which is on the Pacific between Los Angeles and San Diego (by the way, Dana Point is where Peavy mentor Greg Maddux has a home).
Wren will not even acknowledge Peavy discussions, much less provide updates on where the sensitive talks have progressed. But he did say the Braves are approaching the task of filling their offseason needs on many fronts, not focusing all their attention on any one potential blockbuster trade.
“You’ve got to have your plan in place overall,” he said, “which is what we’ve tried to do. We’ve got a good sense of what we want to do.”
He won’t name names, but that could mean if the Peavy deal falls through, the Braves focus even more attention on free agents such as Derek Lowe and A.J. Burnett, whose price tags are likely to surpass the average amount owed to Peavy over the next four seasons, but wouldn’t cost the Braves prospects in a trade.
They could use those prospects they are willing to trade in a deal or deals for a No. 2- or No. 3-type starter and to fill that outfield need, which could become an even bigger priority if the Braves don’t fortify their rotation as well as they hope to through trades or free agency.
So many ways this could go, but keep in mind that some outfielders we might not know about yet could become available in trade when GMs start hashing things out this week over meetings, drinks, rounds of golf, etc.
So, what should we expect out of these meetings?
Wren: “It’s hard to say. I think it could be that a lot happens, or it could be somewhat uneventful. I think a lot of people are ready for something to happen.”
Hanson, Flowers hot in desert: Wren plans to stop off in Arizona on the way back from California next week to see how a few Braves prospects are doing in the Fall League.
Of particular interest will be the aforementioned Tommy Hanson, who’s scheduled to pitch Nov. 6 with Wren and other Braves officials in attendance. Hanson is 3-0 in four starts and has yet to allow a run in 13-2/3 innings, with 19 strikeouts and only three walks and four hits allowed.
The 22-year-old right-hander is continuing the stunning progress he made this year at high-A Myrtle Beach and Double-A Mississippi, where he threw a no-hitter with 14 strikeouts.
“He’s doing very well,” Wren said. “This whole season has been pretty amazing for him.”
Hanson finished the minor league season 11-5 with a 2.41 ERA and 163 strikeouts in 138 innings, and his .175 opponents’ average that led all minor league starters.
Hanson, Flowers and other Braves prospects are playing for the Mesa Solar Sox and manager Rocket Wheeler, who also happens to be the Myrtle Beach manager.
Hanson is doing a blog on his experiences out there. Here’s the most recent entry I could find. Get on their and tell the young man how much you’re looking forward to seeing him pitch for the Braves — or for the Padres (just kidding).
It’s at http://aflbraves.mlblogs.com/
There’s also a link there to “guest blogger” Tyler Flowers’ entry, with a photo of the burly Marietta native.
Speaking of Flowers, he’s absolutely bashing out west. The big boy from the Atlanta ‘burbs, who put on power-hitting displays in major league spring training with the Braves a year ago, is crushing long balls and everything else in Arizona.
The 6-4, 250-pound catcher/first baseman was tied for the AFL league lead with six homers in 12 games before Sunday while hitting a robust .419 (18-for-43) with a .510 OBP and league-best marks in slugging percentage (1.023) and OPS (1.533). Those aren’t typos. He’s going nuts out there.
Twelve of his 18 hits have been for extra bases, including four doubles and two triples (how that big dude has two triples, I’m having a hard time imagining).
Wren also noted the AFL work of Stephen Marek, who’s allowed five hits, no walks and no earned runs in seven innings over seven relief appearances. The hard-throwing right-hander came from the Angels as the largely overlooked part of the Mark Teixeira trade, and it sounds like Marek will compete for a spot in the Braves’ opening day bullpen.
Get to know your doctor: Dr. James Andrews isn’t on the Braves’ payroll. It just seems like he is after a season in which he operated on pitchers John Smoltz, Tim Hudson, Tom Glavine, Rafael Soriano, Peter Moylan, Chuck James … am I forgetting anyone?
Anyway, I thought the denizens might be interested in this story about Andrews that appeared in a trade mag, Fast Company. Here’s the link
Quite a twin bill: The Hold Steady turned in an impressive 90-minute set to open last night’s show, ignoring an early start (just after 7:30 p.m.) and the still-arriving crowd. It’s an outstanding band, if you haven’t heard ‘em, and the Stay Positive CD is one of my favorites this year.
As for the Truckers … well, do they ever disappoint? How can a band lose someone as talented as Jason Isbell and seemingly not miss a beat? Their live shows are, as always, blistering, raging rock-n-roll experiences, and this was certainly no exception.
They ripped it up for just over two hours, and the encore included a sublime, pile-driving, five-guitar cover of Neil Young’s Rockin’ In the Free World, with most of The Hold Steady joining the Truckers for an all-hands-on-deck tour de force that I’m sure they’ll reprise at most stops on this tour.
If you go, don’t dare leave until the end.
”SINK HOLE” by Drive-By Truckers
I’ve always been a religious man, I ‘ve always been a religious man
but I met the banker and it felt like sin, he turned my bailout down
The Banker Man, he let into me, let into me, let into me
The Banker Man, he let into me and spread my name around
He thinks I ain’t got a lick of sense cause I talk slow and my money’s spent
Now, I ain’t the type to hold it against, but he better stay off my farm
Cause it was my Daddy’s and his Daddy’s before
and his Daddy’s before and his Daddy’s before
Five generations and an unlocked door and a loaded burglar alarm.
Lots of pictures of my purdy family, lots of pictures of my purdy family
lots of pictures of my purdy family in the house where I was born.
House has stood through five tornadoes,
Droughts, floods, and five tornadoes.
I’d rather wrastle an alligator than to face the Banker’s scorn
Cause he won’t even look me in the eye
He just takes my land and apologize,
with pen, paper, and a friendly smile, he says the deed is done.
The sound you hear is my Daddy spinning, The sound you hear is my Daddy spinning
The sound you hear is my Daddy spinning over what the Banker done.
Like to invite him for some pot roast beef and mashed potatoes and sweet tea
follow it up with some banana pudding and a walk around the farm
Show him the view from McGee Town Hill
Let him stand in my shoes and see how it feels
to lose the last thing on earth that’s real
I’d rather lose my legs and arms
Bury his body in the old sink hole. Bury his body in the old sink hole
Bury his body in the old sink hole under cold November sky
Then damned if I wouldn’t go to church on Sunday
Damned if I wouldn’t go to church on Sunday
Damned if I wouldn’t go to church on Sunday
and look the Preacher in the eye.
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