AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2008 > November > 18
Tuesday, November 18, 2008
Is the Peavy thing over? We think not
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Hello, it’s good to be back and all that. Froze my butt off watching my Jayhawks get their butts whipped by Texas at Lawrence, but the trip was worthwhile because I saw my brother’s family, spent time with old friends, and got my fix of Gates BBQ in Kansas City.
Now, where were we?
Oh, yes, the Jake Peavy saga. So, anything happen while I was out of town? (Actually, I got the call from Frank Wren about the Braves bailing out on the Peavy deal on Friday afternoon as I stood in a Blockbuster video store in K.C., getting movies for my nephew who just had ACL knee surgery.)
Anyway, a lot of team officials and agents I spoke with out at the GM meetings two weeks ago thought that Peavy would be the first domino to fall in the offseason game pitching musical chairs.
Wrong.
Looks like the first to fall is Ryan Dempster, about to re-up with the Cubs for four years at about $13 mill per.
This development today coming just after the Yankees made their two huge offers, to C.C. Sabathia (six years and a cool $140 million, give or take a few mill) and A.J. Burnett (five years, $80 million, though a Yankees official has disputed that figure; I’m guessing it was probably more like four years an an option. But Boston is also after Burnett, so it’s probably only a matter of time until there is a five-year offer on the table if there isn’t now.)
Anyway, as you can see, the price of front-line pitching ain’t getting any cheaper, folks. In fact, this top-tier free-agent spending might be the only place in America that doesn’t seem to be affected by the real-world economic meltdown.
Anyway, with Dempster off the market, and Sabathia never in the Braves’ price range, and Burnett eyeing a five-year, $16 mill-per-season offer from the Yankees, it looks like the Braves’ best shot at landing a No. 1-caliber starting pitcher might be this right-hander that payroll-purging San Diego is offering.
Dude named Peavy.
No, but seriously….
Since Matt Cain is not available (sorry, folks) and neither, probably, is Zack Greinke (sorry again, folks), and since Derek Lowe’s represented by Scott Boras and thus not likely to sign for, oh, at least a month or two, and with the Yankees looking for at least two starters and other big-market teams including the Dodgers, Mets and Angels looking for at least one, you can see where the free-agent market might not be the easiest place for a team with any sort of payroll restrictions to fill its needs.
Which is why Peavy made the most sense for the Braves, and still does, if you ask me. And no, I don’t believe that the Braves have shut the door on this potential blockbuster.
And no, Peavy has not told friends he doesn’t want to pitch for the Braves. He and his agent gave the Padres a list of five teams for which Jake would considering waiving his no-trade clause in a potential deal, and since they made that list nothing has changed about the city of Atlanta, its location in proximity to Peavy’s native Alabama, or its franchise and its chances, whatever they might be, of contending for a playoff spot next season.
Of course, one other team on that list is the Chicago Cubs, who I’m figuring would be less inclined, not more, to sweeten their original offer for Peavy, now that Dempster’s back in the fold.
And the Yankees? Folks, with the money they have to throw around, do you really think there’s a good chance that a. They would give up their best young pitchers in a deal for Peavy, and b. that Peavy would reverse course and suddenly decide that, hey, living in Gotham for half the year might not be so bad after all? Come on.
Yes, to me a Braves-Padres deal still just makes too much sense for it not to happen.
And by the way, those of you who are happy the Braves didn’t trade Yunel Escobar to San Diego for Peavy, don’t get too excited. As much as I like Yunel and believe he might become a very good to great all-around major league shortstop, I also know that if the Braves were willing to trade him for Peavy, there’s probably a good chance his name will or already has come up in another trade proposal this winter.
One way or another, I think the Braves will deal either Escobar or Kelly Johnson in a trade to fill one of their primary needs, whether that’s for a starting pitcher or to get a power-hitting outfielder like Ryan Ludwick.
Once the anger and/or frustration between Braves and Padres officials simmers a bit and cooler heads prevail, and once Padres GM Kevin Towers realizes that he can’t keep asking the salesman to keep adding accessories after the price for the car has already been agreed upon (just easing to offseason analogy mode; stick with me folks, just got back from a brief vacation), then I do believe this deal can and probably will still get done.
As I said, just makes too much sense for both teams. Braves need an ace, and will have to outbid the Yankees and others for a pitcher comparable to Peavy, who’s going to get paid $63 mill over the next four seasons or $81 mill for the next five, depending on whether his option is exercised.
You want Dempster at $13 mill per season for four years, or A.J. Burnett (check out his year-by-year innings totals) at $16 mill per season for five years, or the 27-year-old 2007 NL Cy Young Award winner, Peavy, at just under $16 mill per season for four years or just over $16 mill per season for five.
Yes, you have to give up some very good talent, including Escobar, to get Peavy, but you’re going to pay him $1 mill less over five seasons than what Burnett could make if he takes that offer from the Yankees (and that’s just a first offer, it might go higher when other teams bid for A.J.).
Just call up their stats and tell me which pitcher you want at the top of your rotation over the next five seasons. And no, I don’t mean compare their stats simply from this season. At least look back two or three years to get a representative sample of their work.
By the way, Peavy held batters to a .229 average this season, including .194 by right-handers (second in the NL) and .184 by all hitters with runners in scoring position (third in the league). Peavy’s 8.6 strikeouts per nine innings ranked fourth in the NL this season, just ahead of Dan haren (8.58), and this wasn’t one of Peavy’s best seasons.
I see a lot of names thrown about here of alternatives that would cost the Braves a lot less, including even the likes of Brad Penny. Nevermind that the Dodgers didn’t want him back after the way he handled things this year. Do you people realize he’s pitched 200 innings just once in the past seven seasons, and never struck out 150 in that span?
That he had a 6.27 ERA this season, and that left-handers batted .328 against him, and that all hitters batted an unsightly .375 against with runners on base, worst among NL starters? Please. Can we never bring that option up again this winter?
As for Lowe: Hey, I’m with you. Many Braves came to me at the end of the season and said he’s the guy they hoped the Braves would pursue hardest (this was before any of them knew Peavy would be available).
But as I mentioned, he’s repped by Scott Boras. Now, Wren and Boras actually have a good relationship, nothing like John Schuerholz and Boras. But can the Braves wait around for a month or more and hope that they land Lowe, while most of the other top-of-rotation starters available start to get signed or traded?
Regarding Lowe. I hear a lot of folks here talk about how dependable he is (and they’re right, he doesn’t go on the DL, doesn’t miss starts) and what a horse he is.
That’s fine. But do you realize how much more dominant Peavy is than Lowe? In the past five seasons, Lowe is 68-60 with a 3.91 ERA, .264 opponents’ average and 668 strikeouts with 285 walks in 1,033-1/3 innings, while being provided with 5.4 support runs per nine innings pitched.
In that same period, Peavy is 68-43 with a 2.92 ERA, .225 opponents’ average and 1,007 strikeouts with 290 walks in 960-2/3 innings, while getting 4.97 support runs per nine innings.
In that period Peavy had an ERA that was a full run lower, and got run support a half-run lower per nine innings pitched, yet had the same number of wins and 339 more strikeouts with only five more walks in 73 fewer innings, most of the innings difference coming this year as a result of Peavy’s month on the DL.
Their numbers really aren’t even close. Peavy’s a different level of pitcher, but Lowe, who’s 35 (eight years older than Peavy), will likely get a salary comparable to Peavy’s on average over the next three or four years via free agency.
Diversions: Saw Role Models and laughed out loud at least a half-dozen times, always a good sign. Really is a hilarious movie. That made it two very good ones in a week for us, including RocknRolla…. The Shield is getting ridiculously tense and great leading up the series finale. I have no idea what’s gonna happen to my man Vic Mackey, but I’m thinking it’s probably not going to be pleasant…. Meanwhile, Sons of Anarchy, Prison Break and Entourage all are building toward much-anticipated finales. Great time to have a DVR, I tell you what. Particularly with college hoops starting up. Gotta watch games live, at least I do. Can any of you watch a game after the fact? Me, I’ve got a hard time doing that.
A tune: Nobody sings this one like Johnny, but the Whiskeytown cover on the second disc of their expanded Strangers Almanac is mighty fine.
”I STILL MISS SOMEONE” by Johnny Cash
At my door the leaves are falling
A cold, wild wind has come
Sweathearts walk by together
And I still miss someone
I go out on a party
And look for a little fun
But I find a darkened corner
because I still miss someone
Oh, no I never got over those blue eyes
I see them everywhere
I miss those arms that held me
When all the love was there
I wonder if she’s sorry
For leaving what we’d begun
There’s someone for me somewhere
And I still miss someone
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