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Tuesday, November 11, 2008
Braves losing patience in Peavy watch
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Mesa, Ariz. _ Many are peeved waiting for Peavy, or rather waiting for Padres GM Kevin Towers to make a decision on where to trade San Diego’s ace Jake Peavy, to the Braves or Cubs (anyone who really believes Towers might decide that no offer suits his fancy and he’ll retain Peavy, there’s a guy who’s got some oceanside property here in Mesa for you to consider buying sight unseen).
Hey, the Braves are getting antsy, too, because of the Thursday deadline when teams’ exclusive 15-day negotiating window with their own free agents expires, and other teams can start making formal financial offers to any free agents on the market. That’s when the Braves want to be ready to make their best offers to land at least one free-agent pitcher, and perhaps two if they don’t think they’re getting Peavy.
They’ve made a very strong offer, which is believed to include top young shortstop Yunel Escobar, as well as either of their prized center-field prospects, Jordan Schafer or Gorkys Hernandez, and either starter Charlie Morton or frustraing-but-talented lefty Jo-Jo Reyes. The Padres have been holding out hope of squeezing top pitching prospect Tommy Hanson from the Braves, but that’s not going to happen.
They seem resigned to that fact now, and might just be trying to squeeze one more young pitching prospect out of the Braves’ system, possibly lefty Cole Rohrbough or lefty Jeff Locke, who are both top-10 Braves prospects.
The Braves have interest in, among other free-agent starters, Derek Lowe, Ryan Dempster and A.J. Burnett, and you can assume the Braves will be ready to up the intensity level trying to land one of them if they think they’re not going to get Peavy.
But it’s still only Tuesday, denizens of the Braves/MIB blog.
So put aside the emotions for a second, and consider what a Peavy acquisition could mean for the Braves for the next four or five seasons. (Yes, I still believe Braves are going to get him, and the Cubs are more leverage than anything else. If I’m wrong, it won’t be the first time.)
People, facts are facts: Peavy is 27 and had ERAs of 2.88 or lower in four of the past five seasons, including three consecutive seasons or 200 or more innings before missing a month in 2008 with a strained elbow.
He’s already the Padres’ career strikeouts leader and he’s signed to an affordable contract worth $59 million over the next four seasons, plus a $22 million option in 2013 or $4 million buyout.
He was a unanimous choice for the 2007 Cy Young Award, when he was 19-6 with a 2.54 ERA and 240 strikeouts with 68 walks in 223-1/3 innings (folks, that’s a season like the Braves used to get from members of their Big Three back in the day).
And his MRI when he went on the DL this season was reportedly clean, just like the one he got when the Padres signed him to his long-term contract a year ago.
Forget, for a moment, the frustration that some Braves fans are feeling because of the way this has dragged on, and the reluctance many feel about parting with the undeniably talented shortstop Yunel Escobar, and consider this bottom-line fact:
Peavy’s an elite starting pitcher, one of fewer than a dozen guys with legit No. 1-caliber talent and presence. Sure, every team has a pitcher in its No. 1 position, but only about a third of MLB teams have a pitcher in that spot who is an intimidating force that can set the tone for a series by completely dominating the opposition on a regular basis, who can reach back to make a pitch for a huge strikeout when it’s absolutely needed, time and time again.
Some here have compared Peavy to Tim Hudson, or rather the Hudson who was the American League’s winningest pitcher in the five years before Huddy came to the Braves. It’s a legit comparison.
Peavy has slightly better overall numbers over a five-year span, but the huge difference: The contract.
Huddy was going to be a free agent a year after the trade, and had issued a deadline of March 1 to get an extension done or said he wouldn’t negotiate during the season. He kept that demand in place after being traded to the Braves, who signed him to a four-year, $47 mill extension at the deadline.
Peavy is signed for four more years with an option for a fifth. Signed to a deal the Braves couldn’t dream of offering to a comparable level of free-agent pitcher and even expect to be among the highest bidders.
While I agree with a few denizens who believe the Braves’ offer is clearly better than the Cubs’ offer it’s also wrong to dismiss an offer that includes left-hander Sean Marshall, who is said to be part of the Cubs’ package and is the best pitcher being offered to the Padres by anyone.
The Braves lost their ace, Hudson, when he had Tommy John surgery that will likely sideline Hudson for all but the last month of the 2009 season, and possibly the entire season. (They have a $12 mill option on his contract for 2010, when the Braves envision a potentially overwhelming rotation of Peavy, Hudson, a free agent they sign this winter, Jair Jurrjens and Tommy Hanson.
That’s a rotation with quality and depth to potentially compare with some of the dominant Braves rotations of the 1990s.
Losing Hudson made it imperative that the Braves this find a replacement No. 1 starter to replace him. Peavy happens to be a fellow Alabama native (yes, Hudson was born in Georgia, but only because there was no hospital in his Alabama hometown).
Peavy, by the way, was set to pitch for Auburn, like Hudson did, before Peavy signed with the Padres out of high school (St. Paul’s Episcopal of Mobile) in 1999.
He was a modest 10-11 in 27 starts this season, but that record is more indicative of the Padres’ anemic run support than Peavy’s performance. He had a 2.85 ERA and a solid 1.180 WHIP (walks-plus-hits per inning pitched) that was right at his career mark.
He received just under 3.7 support runs per nine innings pitched, including eight starts in which the Padres scored one or no runs while he was in.
Peavy’s got the dominant stuff and hard-nosed attitude, and by all accounts he’s a hard worker who sets a great example for teammates to follow. The whole package, according to a lot of people who should know, including Don Sutton.
Yes, that elbow is an undeniable cause for some concern. In May a sore elbow sidelined him four weeks. But when he came back, he recorded 13 quality starts in his last 18 games. If he was pitching with a damaged elbow, he pitched well.
In seven of his 13 starts after July 4, he allowed one or no runs in seven or more innings, including an Aug. 31 start against Colorado in which he threw eight scoreless innings of five-hit ball with 13 strikeouts and two walks.
He only made two starts in September, missing time to witness the birth of his third child. The Padres were so far out of contention, they were cautious bringing him back from that, especially in light of the earlier elbow issues.
Peavy also missed six weeks for a strained flexor tendon in that forearm/elbow in 2004, when he went 15-6 with a 2.27 ERA in 27 starts with 177 strikeouts in 163-1/3 innings.
In each of the next three seasons, he pitched over 200 innings with at least 215 strikeouts, including 223-1/3 innings with a league-high 240 strikeouts in 2007, when he finished 19-6 with a 2.54 ERA and won the Cy Young Award.
Out of curiosity, I went back through his day-by-days to early in the 2006 season to find a point where Peavy really struggled for any significant period. Then I checked his stats since, to compare him with some other relevent starters.
Since July 26, 2006, here are those results:
Jake Peavy has gone 36-20 with a 2.63 ERA, with a .215 opponents’ average, 490 strikeouts and 154 walks in 474-1/3 innings.
Brandon Webb is 44-22 with a 3.36 ERA, with a .239 opponents’ average, 436 strikeouts and 160 walks in 535-2/3 innings.
Johan Santana is 38-21 with a 2.82 ERA, with a .224 opponents’ average, 528 strikeouts and 134 walks in 536 innings.
CC Sabathia is 41-22 with a 2.91 ERA, with a .247 opponents’ average, 540 strikeouts and 113 walks in 585-1/3 innings.
A.J. Burnett is 36-23 with a 3.94 ERA, with a .239 opponents’ average, 472 strikeouts and 182 walks in 473 innings.
Tim Hudson is 32-21 with a 3.56 ERA, with a .257 opponents’ average, 273 strikeouts and 122 walks in 448 innings.
Derek Lowe is 35-26 with a 3.41 ERA, with a .250 opponents’ average, 343 sstrikeouts and 118 walks in 490-2/3 innings.
Ryan Dempster is 19-17 with 35 saves in 42 opportunities and a 3.59 ERA, with a .239 opponents’ average, 265 strikeouts and 121 walks in 303 innings.
Opening Sunday, again: For the second year in a row, the Braves have had their opening day game moved up a day to make it the national opening-night broadcast game on Sunday, April 5, at Philly against the World Series champs.
The game had been scheduled for Monday afternoon, April 6. The move was done without the Braves’ knowledge, since they aren’t required to approve a move of a road date within a series.
It means for the second year in a row, the Braves will scramble to move from Florida spring training to Atlanta for their final two exhibition games (against Detroit April 4-5) and then fly to Philly for the opener without a day off before the season begins.
Last year, the same scenario played out in Washington, where the Braves lost opening night, after playing two exhibition games at Atlanta the previous two days and not getting to work out on the new field at D.C.
This time it’s slightly better, in that the Braves were already scheduled to open the season with a series at Philly. Last year, the Braves were scheduled to open at home, and the Washington game was a special one-game opener created by taking a game out of a series at D.C. scheduled for later that month.
So this time around, at least the Braves won’t be playing three games in three different cities in three days, and playing opening night at D.C. one day and a home opener in Atlanta the next.
Still, it hardly seems ideal, going straight from two exhibition games in Atlanta to opening the next night on the road, without a day to work out before the season kicks off.
Then again, baseball didn’t ask the Braves about it. They told them they were dong it, after already making the schedule change. Baseball has that right.
“We were notified by MLB this week of the date and time change of Opening Day,” GM Frank Wren told me by e-mail yesterday, and I should make clear he wasn’t and didn’t complain about the move, just answered my question about it. “In the case of a road game, we would not have control over the change.”
He added, “The change will not affect our exhibition games with the Tigers.”
The rest of baseball will open the day after the Braves-Phillies opener.
The Braves, who had been scheduled to have an off day in the series at Philly on April 7, will instead play the three-game series April 5, then have a day off April 6 (other teams’ opening day), then finish the series April 7-8 (day game on 8th), then have another day off April 9.
Atlanta’s home opener is scheduled for Friday, April 10 vs. the Nationals.
Let it end, please: No, not the Peavy thing (though that, too). I’m talking about the incessant voice in my head that’s been singing Gordon Lightfoot’s “Carefree Highway” ever since I rode by the junction of Carefree Highway and I-17 Sunday on my ride up to Jerome, Ariz.
Maybe I can exorcise it by using the lyrics to another Lightfoot song that I actually loved back in my youth, when Top-40 was cool.
”SUNDOWN” by Gordon Lightfoot
I can see her lyin’ back in her satin dress
In a room where ya do what ya don’t confess
Sundown ya better take care
If I find you been creepin’ ‘round my back stairs
Sundown ya better take care
If I find you been creepin’ ‘round my back stairs
She’s been lookin’ like a queen in a sailor’s dream
And she don’t always say what she really means
Sometimes I think it’s a shame
When I get feelin’ better when I’m feelin’ no pain
Sometimes I think it’s a shame
When I get feelin’ better when I’m feelin’ no pain
I can picture every move that a man could make
Getting lost in her lovin’ is your first mistake
Sundown ya better take care
If I find you been creepin’ ‘round my back stairs
Sometimes I think it’s a sin
When I feel like I’m winnin’ when I’m losin again
I can see her lookin’ fast in her faded jeans
She’s a hard lovin’ woman, got me feelin’ mean
Sometimes I think it’s a shame
When I get feelin’ better when I’m feelin’ no pain
Sundown ya better take care
If I find you been creepin’ ‘round my back stairs
Sundown ya better take care
If I find you been creepin’ ‘round my back stairs
Sometimes I think it’s a sin
When I feel like I’m winnin’ when I’m losin’ again
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