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Friday, November 7, 2008
Pondering a Jake for Yunel, Gorkys, Charlie….
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
A few thoughts while packing (again) for a trip to Arizona tomorrow to see Tommy Hanson and other Braves prospects in the Fall League, and thinking that FX’s The Shield and Sons of Anarchy are better than anything on the big networks, and, oh yeah, pondering the Braves possibly including center-field prospect Gorkys Hernandez and pitcher Charlie Morton along with Yunel Escobar (the centerpiece from Atlanta’s end) and another, lesser prospect in the trade for San Diego Padres ace Jake Peavy.
Maybe you’ve heard the Braves are pursuing Peavy, yes? There’s been a little written about it recently.
But seriously, the inclusion of Hernandez in the past couple of days was a development we thought would probably eventually occur, since the Braves had made it known they were flatly refusing to include either of their top two prospects, pitcher Tommy Hanson and outfielder Jason Heyward.
And since the Padres need young outfield depth in addition to pitching, it seemed inevitable that Jordan Schafer or Hernandez would have to be included eventually, since the Braves didn’ want to three or four of their top pitching prospects not named Hanson to the Padres along with Escobar.
So they’re going from a positions of strength, center field and pitching, in addition to the painful but apparently no-way-around-it part of the deal, Escobar. (Braves would probably prefer to trade second baseman Kelly Johnson, whom they could replace from within, but the Padres want Escobar badly.)
Schafer and Hernandez are both center fielders, and both were among the Braves’ top-five prospects entering the 2008 according to Baseball America. Schafer will slip from his No. 1 perch when the new list is out, after his 50-game suspension for alleged HGH use last season.
But he’s still regarded by the Braves as a potential future All-Star, just as Hernandez is. While Hernandez has more speed (blazing, blazing speed) and range, and probably a slightly stronger arm, Schafer is a couple of years ahead of him in development, has more power, and might legitimately be ready to play CF for the Braves in 2009.
Charlie Morton might develop into a top-half-of-rotation starter in the future, but for now his confidence and aggressiveness are far behind his stuff. Let’s just say, there are plenty more questions about him, in the eyes of those who’ve seen both, than there are about Hanson.
The irony is that trading Escobar to the Padres is, according to Peavy’s agent, something that could possibly affect the Alabama native’s decision on whether to waive his no-trade clause and agree to a trade to the Braves.
At least that’s what agent Barry Axelrod indicated to the San Diego Union-Tribune’s Tom Krasovic. Axelrod told the Padres beat writer that the Padres had not yet asked for approval on a trade, but in preparing for that request that could come soon, he and Peavy have been evaluating potential trade partners.
Peavy’s knows the World Series-winning Phillies and big-payrolled Mets are in the East with the Braves, and he wants to make sure he goes to a competitive team, not just one located close to the house he keeps in his hometown of Semmes, Ala.
“One of the things we will want to look at some point is, ‘Who are you giving up? How much are you weakening your team to make this deal?’” Axelrod told the San Diego newspaper. “If Team X trades three starting pitchers and a starting shortstop to get Jake Peavy, that lessens their chance of being a successful team.”
In the midst of these developments the past couple of days, there were hints and statements from San Diego Padres’ officials that the Cubs had moved even or ahead of the Braves in the race for Peavy. And that an unnamed third team was also in the mix (widely believe to be the Dodgers, although there remain many skeptics who don’t believe Towers would actually trade Peavy to the division rival from just up the freeway, and that he’s only using the Dodgers to leverage more talent out of the Braves or Cubs in a trade).
Before we go any further, let me point out that Axelrod is also a close friend of Padres GM Kevin Towers, and also used to represent the manager. Towers, by the way, said this week that there’s very little chance he doesn’t trade Peavy this winter, that “the train has left the station.”
I point this out, about their friendship, because it’s raised eyebrows in the past and I heard some mention it again during the GM meetings.
Anyway, I asked Axelrod this morning if he could clarify the comments he made to Krasovic, a veteran reporter most of us refer to as “Kras.”
Axelrod took the time to send me an e-mail explaining:
“In my conversation with Kras,” Axelrod wrote, “he asked if there had been any approval in advance of trades to any team, as had been reported in some media. I told him that there had not been and that the reason for that is that we would want to fully analyze any potential destination team in terms of a variety of factors (ownership, management, farm system, ballpark, training staff, etc.), which would include the winning prospects for the team.
“Obviously, the personnel in the lineup would be a factor and that can’t be analyzed until we know who might be included in the trade going back to the Padres. The reference to Escobar was by example only. If you read the full quote, I said something about a team giving up three starting pitchers and a starting shortstop which would materially alter the makeup of that team after the trade. I could just have easily used Kershaw and Billingsley with the Dodgers or Harden and DeRosa of the Cubs. I was just explaining by using an example. I did not mean to infer that the Braves would not be acceptable if Escobar were no longer there.”
He added: “I have said that in some ways this situation is like free agency for Jake and that we are approaching it that way. By that, I mean that he has some choice in where he ends up and, in order to make that choice most prudently, we should take the opportunity to examine any situation where he might eventually end up. That is why we would look at team makeup and have an opinion on it. It would be unusual in a normal trade situation, but this is a situation where there is a full no trade involved, which makes it a little different.”
I also asked him if he thought the Cubs had assumed “the lead” in the race for Peavy and whether negotiations with the Braves had reached a standstill.
“I don’t know which team has the lead here and that is not in our control,” he replied. “Once the Padres tell us they have something on the burner and ask for approval, we will know who the leading contender is, but that has not happened.
“I don’t think talks are at a standstill. I know that Towers was talking to teams right up to the end of the GM meetings and my impression is that the Braves were one of the teams.”
Inside the Braves’ offices, if this deal falls through, I wonder if some might be uncomfortable about Peavy’s agent and Towers’ friend Axelrod having a potentially significant level of influence on this situation.
Of course, Peavy certainly has that right, as a guy with a full no-trade clause. But the appearance, well, you can see where it might not sit well with some.
It’s become obvious that if the Braves included Hanson, this deal would have been done. But the Braves aren’t going to include Hanson, who could well be the No. 1 pitching prospect in all of baseball, and is projected to be an eventual top-of-the-rotation starter by the Braves.
For now, they see him as possibly part of a dream rotation in 2010 that would include Peavy, another veteran (probably free agent) to be acquired this winter, Tim Hudson, Jair Jurrjens and Hanson.
And while Axelrod and Peavy might rightly assume the Braves would not be as good up the middle defensively if Escobar is traded, I’m guessing that the Braves would surely intend to replace Escobar with another proven shortstop, not by plugging the gap with Omar Infante, Martin Prado or Brent Lillibridge.
The Braves have replaced shortstops in the past, acquiring Edgar Renteria for 2007 after Rafael Furcal left as a free agent, them handing the reins to Escobar in 2008 after trading Renteria to Detroit for the aforementioned Gorkys Hernandez and Jurrjens.
They probably believe they could do it again, acquiring either a free agent (Renteria’s available, as are Orlando Cabrera and Caesar Izturis or, if they want to spend bigger, Furcal) or by trading for someone like Julio Lugo, J.J. Hardy or Maicer Izturis. This time, the Braves have more money to spend than they had in the recent past when they had to replace a shortstop.
Would any of them be as good as Escobar? Maybe. Maybe not. Maybe one would be better, at least for 2009. You don’t know. But as much as I like Escobar and believe, as the Braves do, that he’s a potential future All-Star, let’s not act as though his offense is irreplaceable. Look at the numbers.
If the Padres are angling to get Hanson in the deal instead of Escobar, it’s almost certainly not going to work. Everything I’ve heard is that the Braves are flat-out not going to trade Hanson. Can’t say that I blame them. You don’t trade potential No. 1 starters who are so close to being ready (you think Detroit would ask for a do-over on the Jurrjens trade?).
While it’s still early in the offseason and the free-agent filing period hasn’t even ended, the problem with the Peavy thing potentially dragging out is that it’s the key piece for the Braves, who need to move on to trying to secure another No. 1-caliber pitcher if they aren’t going to get Peavy.
The Braves can’t go full-bore into those other pitchers if they think they’re going to land Peavy, or even if they believe there’s a good chance they will.
Personally, I still get the impression that Atlanta is the favorite, because the names I hear thrown around connected to the Cubs’ bid just don’t strike me as a more attractive package for the payroll-slashing Padres.
But who knows how the Padres view it? So much posturing, so many leaks from so many different media members’ sources, some with agendas, some lacking actual knowledge and merely speculating.
One minute, the Braves are the leading suitor. Next the Dodgers. Then the Cubs.
It will end soon. It must. Mustn’t it? Please, let it end.
“SWEET THING” by Van Morrison
And I will stroll the merry way
And jump the hedges first
And I will drink the clear
Clean water for to quench my thirst
And I shall watch the ferry-boats
And they’ll get high
On a bluer ocean
Against tomorrow’s sky
And I will never grow so old again
And I will walk and talk
In gardens all wet with rain
Oh sweet thing, sweet thing
My, my, my, my, my sweet thing
And I shall drive my chariot
Down your streets and cry
‘Hey, it’s me, I’m dynamite
And I don’t know why’
And you shall take me strongly
In your arms again
And I will not remember
That I even felt the pain.
We shall walk and talk
In gardens all misty and wet with rain
And I will never, never, never
Grow so old again.
Oh sweet thing, sweet thing
My, my, my, my, my sweet thing
And I will raise my hand up
Into the night time sky
And count the stars
That’s shining in your eye
Just to dig it all an’ not to wonder
That’s just fine
And I’ll be satisfied
Not to read in between the lines
And I will walk and talk
In gardens all wet with rain
And I will never, ever, ever, ever
Grow so old again.
Oh sweet thing, sweet thing
Sugar-baby with your champagne eyes
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