AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2008 > November > 05
Wednesday, November 5, 2008
Eating, observing, waiting for Peavy deal
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Dana Point, Calif. _ A few thoughts while contemplating how well-heeled and privileged anyone automatically looks while sitting at white-umbrella’d tables on the St. Regis dining veranda, out there on the immaculately manicured lawn behind this stately oceanfront resort, where I just saw major league-team officials dining (you dine there, you don’t simply eat) while I scarfed a $5 bag of potato chips and a $5 coffee from the absurdly overpriced coffee shop off the main lobby.
I know, you have no pity. After all, if you’re like me you’d rather have the Big Mama burrito I had for breakfast at the dive bar/restaurant at the Dania Beach Wharf, where fishing boats were pulling out of the harbor and a gorgeous SoCal waitress with no makeup and her hair pulled up in a rubber band kept my coffee cup full while I read the paper and ate (you eat there, you don’t dine).
Anyway, it’s a new day in America, but not much if anything has changed for baseball teams and top free agents, who are basically recession- and depression-proof, as we’re about to find out when Manny Ramirez and CC Sabathia land multi-year contracts worth more than $25 million annually, and Mark Teixeira gets something comparable or his agent (and Manny’s) isn’t Scott Boras.
But most of you probably want to know about the Braves and not about guys (Manny, CC, Tex) they aren’t going to sign, right?
OK, not much new to report on the Jake Peavy front. Waiting to talk to Frank Wren and hopefully Kevin Towers later today, but not expecting anything to have changed, to tell you the truth.
Despite what you might hear about they’re being seven teams — the Angels and Yankees along with the five previously named NL teams — that could be in the running, Towers has told a couple of people that it’s three teams in the Peavy race right now, and that he’s well into negotiations with two of them.
The Braves are one of those teams, and I think the Cubs are the other, though I’m not certain of that. Might also be the Dodgers, though I still find it hard to believe he’d trade Peavy to San Diego’s NL West rival just up the freeway.
The consensus among folks I talk to is that the Braves have been and still are the favorites to land the Alabama native and 2007 Cy Young Award winner, though it will likely cost them shortstop Yunel Escobar and a package of a few other prospects including at least two pitchers not named Tommy Hanson (Braves aren’t trading Hanson, period.)
While I’m thinking about it, let me reiterate a few things I’ve heard in the past couple days: 1. The Braves will NOT trade both Escobar and Kelly Johnson this offseason, though that doesn’t mean they wouldn’t trade one. 2. Braves might have gotten a casual inquiry or two about Jeff Francoeur, but they have not, repeat not, so far talked trade with any team about the right fielder. So don’t believe those rumors. Sure, that could change, but so far there’s been nothing doing on that front, and it sounds like Braves fully expect to have Francoeur in RF when the 2009 season begins. 3. The Braves met with Mike Hampton’s agent Tuesday, and both sides understand Hampton will see what else is out there but would like to come back to Atlanta if he doesn’t get as good or better offer from a team closer to his kids in Arizona. 4. There’s a couple other Japanese pitchers who are about to become free agents and might have interest from the Braves, but these are guys in their early 30s, who’ve gone through the eight years in the Japanese professional league to get their free agency (as opposed to Junichi Tazawa, 22, who the Braves just made a multi-year offer, a right-hander who’s going straight from Japan’s industrial league to America, which doesn’t sit well with Japanese pro-league folks, by the way). Oh, and 5. The new Q-Tip solo CD is supposed to be outstanding, as good as his best work back in the day with Tribe Called Quest.
OK, where were we?
Would a package of Escobar and, for instance, pitchers Kris Medlen and Charlie Morton, plus perhaps a lesser prospect, get the Peavy deal done? I’m going to go out on a limb and say probably so, because Escobar is regarded highly around baseball. More highly than some Braves fans might realize, folks who got a little turned off at times during his injury-plagued and occasionally temper-flaring season.
He’s got a cannon arm, great hands, a passion to play, and natural power that’s going to (probably) translate to 15-25 homers a season and a ton of doubles, in addition to a high average and OBP.
But there’s still that “probably” in there. It’s not a slam-dunk that Escobar is going to be an elite all-around shortstop you can build around. I’d bet that he will be, but it’s not guaranteed.
And even if he does become that, and one of the pitchers they trade becomes a solid major league starter, well, you know what? That’s a price you’re going to have to pay to get a 27-year-old ace in his prime, a Cy Young Award winner in 2007 who many believe to be one of the 10 best starters in baseball.
Only question about Peavy, and I mean the only question, is whether his elbow can hold up to that violent delivery for the rest of his contract. But hey, how many pitchers in baseball can you say aren’t at risk to have a season-ending injury and require surgery? Guys whose mechanics were described as flawless in the past, such as Mark Prior, have been constantly injured, while guys with unorthodox mechanics, such as Tim Lincecum, haven’t had any health woes.
John Smoltz has as pretty and consistent a delivery as anyone, and he’s had five arm surgeries.
Peavy’s had a couple of stints on the DL for elbow soreness, including one before the All-Star break last season. But he hasn’t had surgery and his MRI was reportedly clean (I know, I know, some of you are saying the MRI doesn’t show everything every time, but it does almost always show ligament tears that require Tommy John surgery; just ask Tim Hudson, who didn’t have any significant elbow pain when he went in for an MRI that showed not one, but two, ligament tears, necessitating the Tommy John surgery that’s likely to sideline him until at least late August and possibly the entire 2009 season).
We can assume the Braves would give him another MRI and examine it very closely, given the investment they’d be putting in him and the players they’d be giving up to get him.
Is he damaged? People, just look at how well Peavy pitched when he got back from the DL. If he was hurt, he’s a helluva pitcher when he’s hurt.
Denizens of Braves/MIB, here’s what it comes down to: Jake Peavy on a competitive team should be good for 15-20 wins, 200 innings and 200 strikeouts, on average, for the duration of his contract, whether that’s four years and $63 million of five years at $81 if the option is exercised.
And ask yourself this question: How many teams have won championships in recent years without a bonafide No. 1 starter, a guy you can turn to for Game 7 and say, “Here, now go hold the other team to one or no runs, dude.”
If Braves are serious about returning to the playoffs after a three-year absence, and doing some serious damage when they get to the playoffs, then they need a No. 1 starter. And unless they think they can pay the going rate for an A.J. Burnett (he’s injury prone and will probably get a four-year contract worth at least $68 million; who would you rather have?) or roll the dice on Ben Sheets (he’s so injury prone, he hadn’t won more than 12 games in a season before this one), or get into a bidding war for Derek Lowe, who’s getting up there in years and isn’t the No. 1 the way that Peavy is a No. 1 … well, you get my point.
Gotta do it, don’t you? Long as you don’t have to give up Hanson or Jason Heyward, or multiple prospects from the group that includes your Schafers and Gorkys Hernandezes and Freddie Freeemans, it other words as long as it’s not a system-purging deal, the Braves have to pull the trigger on Peavy if they’re not sure they can get another affordable, legit No. 1.
OK, let me know what you think about that, while I go roam the marble-floored hallways of this posh resort in my Chuck Taylors, looking for crumbs of news (or crumbs from the entrees they were dining on out on the veranda while ago).
GOIN’ OUT WEST by Tom Waits
Well I’m goin’ out west
Where the wind blows tall
‘Cause Tony Franciosa
Used to date my ma
They got some money out there
They’re giving it away
I’m gonna do what I want
Do what I want
And I’m gonna get paid
Little brown sausages
Lying in the sand
I ain’t no extra baby
I’m a leading man
Well my parole officer
WIll be proud of me
With my Olds 88
And the devil on a leash
My Olds 88
And the devil on a leash
Well I kno karate, Voodoo too
I’m gonna make myself available to you
I don’t need no make up
I got real scars
I got hair on my chest
I look good without a shirt
Well I don’t lose my composure
In a high speed chase
Well my friends think I’m ugly
I got a masculine face
I got some dragstrip courage
I can really drive a bed
I’m gonna change my name
To Hannibal or maybe
Just Rex
Change my name to Hannibal
Or maybe just Rex
I’m gonna drive all night
Take some speed
I’m gonna wait for the sun
To shine down on me
I cut a hole in my roof
In the shape of a heart
And I’m goin’ out west
Where they’ll appreciate me
Goin’ out west
Goin’ out west
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