AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2008 > October
October 2008
Put this Series out of its misery
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
This World Series certainly has gone to hell in a handbasket, hasn’t it?
It had such promise, such freshness. The upstart, youthful Tampa Bay Rays having triumphed over super powers Boston and New York to win the AL East. The Phillies, trying to bring Philly its first pro-sports title in a quarter-century, or at least since Rocky.
But rain, cold, an antiseptic dome, poor umpiring, post-8:30 p.m. starts and midnight-or-later finishes, one absurd post-10 p.m. start, a couple of slumping Tampa Bay sluggers, and more face time for Bud Selig than for David Price have all conspired to turn this into the World Series that most people outside of Tampa-St. Pete would just like to see end as soon as possible.
And if you’re a baseball fan who doesn’t want to admit you’re not interested in this World Series, well, don’t be ashamed. Plenty of major league players feel the same way.
Take Braves free-agent reliever Will Ohman, for instance.
“I’m as far away from game right now as can possibly be — I’m not even tivo’ing the Series,” Ohman said this afternoon, when I called him at his home in Mesa, Arizona, to ask him about free agency and other matters.
He said if he walks in a room and a postseason game is on, he’ll watch. Other than that, he’s not paying any attention.
As for free agency, he said he nor his agent hasn’t heard a thing from the Braves, as far as he knows. But before anyone jumps to any conclusions and assumed the Braves have decided their best left-hander (and most dependable reliever, period) from last season is too expensive to keep, don’t.
The 15-day free-agent filing period begins the day after the World Series, and in that period a team retains exclusive negotiating rights to its own free agents. Other teams can call, but they’re not supposed to talk contract.
(But plenty do, routinely. As long as both sides agree to keep it quiet, teams generally don’t get in any trouble for talking dollars with other teams’ free agents before they’re supposed to.)
Anyway, he’s heard a couple of other teams that might be interested, but nothing yet from the Braves.
Ohman reiterated what he said several times from before the July 31 no-waiver trade deadline through the end of the season: He hopes the Braves make him an offer. He enjoyed his time in Atlanta, and particularly playing for Bobby Cox, and would like to return if the Braves make a competitive offer.
His experience with the Braves was far better than the one he had for several years in Chicago with the Cubs, who traded him to Atlanta at last year’s Winter Meetings in Nashville.
“I loved it there,” Ohman said of Atlanta. “The only downsides are location, just because it makes it harder to see my family [in Arizona], and the other one is not knowing if Bobby is going to be back beyond next year. So there’s a little uncertainty in what was a certain world down there.
“But if those are the two knocks, it’s not bad. Everything else I loved. The guys on the team, the stadium, the fans … everything was good.”
Ohman also, by the way, gave a ringing endorsement to the possibility of trading for Jake Peavy. He has heard all those rumors, and said it would be a huge pickup for the Braves, to get an ace under contract for four more years, or five if the option is picked up.
“They you could sign Derek Lowe,” he said. “Imagine that potential rotation in 2010 - Hudson, Jurrjens, Peavy, Lowe ….”
With that, Ohman was back to his current occupation - playing Mr. Mom, as he put it. He sent his wife Allyson on a three-day trip to an Arizona resort in another part of the state,
“Sent her to a hotel and spa,” he said. “I get all my road trips during the season, so she gets a three-day trip when I get back.”
He told Allyson not to worry, that he’d take care of their twins, Jack and Annabel, who are about to turn 3.
“I have lots of kids,” said Ohman, who interrupted the phone call to tell his son that he’d banged away enough on the piano and that it was time to get ready for his nap.
Wait, he has “lots” of kids?
“Well, it’s just two,” Ohman said. “But it’s a lot. It’s just me here with them. It’s amazing the amount of work involved with it. Got to get ‘em up, get em ready for school, everything.”
OK, that’s it for this one. Gonna keep it short today, folks. I have a feeling. We’re about to get busy if this Series ends tonight. Free agency is going to be interesting in more ways than one for the Braves, who are starting to find out which players and pitchers are not having options picked up or who are opting out of options and becoming free agents.
The new Ryan Adams CD, Cardinology, is very good. Not as good, as say, Hearbreaker or his stuff with Whiskeytown, but very good. Mostly rootys tunes, a couple of semi-rockers.
Going to see the movie Rachel Getting Married right now, before tonight’s “game.” Anybody seen that movie yet? I’ll let you know what I think. Oh, and has anyone seen Pride and Glory yet? I’ve seen mostly modest or worse reviews. That’s too bad, with that cast I thought it’d be a great flick.
“PIDGIN ENGLISH” by Elvis Costello
There’s a young girl with her old man who’s too sick to mention
She’ll be turning twenty seven as she draws her widow’s pension
But he couldn’t catch a common cold he couldn’t get arrested
Too terrified to answer back
Too tired to have resisted
Many hands make light work
Shorthand makes life easy
When he’s out on night work
Make sure no one sees me
It all ends up in a slanging match with body talk and bruises
A change is better than a rest
Silly beggars can’t be choosers
One of a thousand pities you can’t categorize
There are ten commandments of love
When will you realize
There are ten commandments of love
I believe, I trust, I promise, I wish love’s just a throwaway kiss
In this Pidgin English
If you’re so wise use your lips and your eyes
Take it to the bridge she sighs
You go cheep cheep cheep between bullseyes and bluster
Stiff as your poker face
Keener than mustard
From your own back yard to the land of exotica
From the truth society to neurotic erotica
Silence is golden
Money talks diamonds and ermine
There’s a word in Spanish
Italian and German
In sign language, morse code, semaphore and gibberish
Have you forgotten how to say it
In your Pidgin English?
One of a thousand pities you can’t categorize
There are ten commandments of love
When will you realize
There are ten commandments of love
I believe, I trust, I promise, I wish love’s just a throwaway kiss
In this Pidgin English
P.S. I love you
Jack and Annabel, twins
Permalink | Comments (712) | Post your comment |
What to make of latest Smoltz story?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Philadelphia — Things to ponder while marveling at how quickly a story hinting at a possible new address for John Smoltz will inevitably mushroom in the internet era, and wondering if some folks will stop the “AL is superior” mantra if Philly becomes the fourth NL team in eight years to win the World Series.
First, the Smoltz matter.
The bearded Braves icon continues his rehab and hopeful comeback from shoulder surgery, and Smoltz said late Saturday he wasn’t aware of a New York Daily News story in which one of his agents was quoted saying Smoltz might entertain a midseason return with a playoff contender ala Roger Clemens.
Smoltz had a $12 million option for 2009 that didn’t vest, and he’ll become a free agent soon after the World Series. But Braves general manager Frank Wren said nothing had changed in their minds after a previously agreed-to plan.
That plan was for Wren and Smoltz to address the contract matter later this winter, only after the 41-year-old pitcher progresses in his recovery to the point of deciding whether he can pitch again in the major leagues.
“I know nothing about [the Daily News story],” Smoltz said in a text message. “It’s news to me.”
Keith Grunewald, one of Smoltz’s agents in the Career Sports and Entertainment, was asked by a Daily News reporter about the possibility of Smoltz making a Clemens-like dramatic reentry at midseason to help a contending team reach the playoffs.
“That’s not a bad approach to say who is winning and who can he help?” Grunewald told the paper. “There will be injuries and poor performance around the league, so that will be part of it. … He won’t be ready for the beginning of the season, but we’re thinking May or June and he could make an impact like Roger Clemens a couple of years ago to help make a run at a playoff spot.”
Grunewald also was quoted saying, “John’s made it clear he’d love to finish his career in Atlanta, but that depends on what [Wren] and the guys want to do.”
Much was made of the story, which was picked up by numerous online baseball rumor sites, including news outlets and blogs. Some interpreted it to mean Smoltz was getting antsy and pondering a move, but he refuted that Saturday.
He said nothing had changed in his desire to stay with the Braves and his approach this offseason. He plans to increase the intensity of his throwing workouts soon as he moves closer to the time when he’ll make a decision.
Smoltz has told Braves officials and others that his initial workouts this winter went very well, and his follow-up visits with surgeon James Andrews have produced nothing but positive reports.
But the pitcher stood by his previously stated plan of not offering any public pronouncements of his progress, and said he’s about to move into a period of relative isolation as he focuses on his comeback bid.
“Nothing has changed,” he said of his plans. “I am disappearing and doing my thing, whatever that is. There will be no quotes from me on anything because there is nothing to report.”
Smoltz said repeatedly this year that he hopes to finish his career with the Braves, the only major league team he’s ever pitched for.
Wren said Saturday, “”John and I, the last time we talked, we agreed that when he got deeper in the winter we would talk [about a possible contract].”
Wren said last month that if Smoltz can pitch again and wants to pitch, the Braves want him back with the only major league team he’s ever played for.
Asked Saturday if that were still the case, Wren said, “That’s exactly right.”
Molly Fletcher, another of the team of agents who represents Smoltz, said today (Sunday): “Everybody is monitoring John’s progress, which has been tremendous. And we’re certainly sensitive to our relationship with the Atlanta Braves.”
The Braves have given no indication of the value of contract they might offer Smoltz, a probable future Hall of Famer and the only pitcher to record at least 200 wins and 150 saves. He also surpassed 3,000 career strikeouts in 2008 before his season was cut short by throbbing pain in his shoulder.
“We have a fantastic relationship with the Atlanta Braves,” Fletcher said, “and it’s important to us that that continue. At the same time, John’s going to be in a position to have some choices, and he wants to evaluate those choices when the time is right.
“He’s going to have choices. But we’re incredibly sensitive and respectful to our relationship to Frank and the team.”
Smoltz finished the season 3-2 with a 2.57 ERA in six games (five starts), with 36 strikeouts in 28 innings. He was 3-1 with a microscopic 0.78 ERA and two 10-strikeout games in four starts before pain forced him out of a rough start at New York, his last before a one-month stint on the disabled list.
He tried to come back as a closer, but the pain returned in his lone relief appearance.
Serious damage to his labrum and rotator cuff were addressed in June shoulder surgery, the fifth operation Smoltz has had on his pitching arm, including “Tommy John” ligament-transplant elbow surgery and three other elbow procedures.
Smoltz was told before and after the operation that there was no guarantee he would pitch again, but so far he and his representative say reports have been positive from Andrews.
Another World Series title for NL East? Do people realize that after winning Game 3 against Tampa Bay on a bases-loaded infield dribbler hit by Carlos Ruiz at 1:47 a.m. Sunday, the Phillies are two wins from being the fourth NL team to win the World Series since 2001.
The other three were Arizona (’01), Florida (’03) and St. Louis (’06). Three AL teams have won the Series in that period: Anaheim, Boston (twice) and Chicago.
A Phillies World Series title would be the second for an NL East team in six years. The only other division with two championships in the past eight years is the AL East, both its titles won by the Red Sox in ’04 and ’07.
Going back a little further (required in order to bring Atlanta into the conversation), a Phillies World Series title would be the fourth for an NL East team in 14 years, after the Braves (1995) and the Marlins (’97 and ’03).
Speaking of the Braves, they had a mark erased from the postseason record book in Game 3 when Tampa Bay stole four bases (three by budding superstar B.J. Upton) to raise its postseason total to 22, surpassing the previous record of 20 set by Cincinnati in 1975 and matched by the ’92 Braves.
Otis Nixon stole eight bases (in nine attempts) for the Braves in 13 games in the ’92 postseason, and Deion Sanders was 5-for-5 in steals, all of his in four games during the World Series loss against Toronto.
During the ’92 regular season, the trio of Nixon, Sanders and Ron Gant totaled 99 stolen bases in 136 attempts, including 41 steals for Nixon and 32 for Gant. Yes, the Braves did run some way back in the day.
Can the Rays win this Series? Of course. But to do so, they’re almost certainly going to need more than they’ve gotten so far from middle-of-the-order hitters Carlos Pena and Evan Longoria.
What they’ve gotten so far from those two is nothing. Zilch. Well, other than a towering fly from Longoria on Saturday night, which appeared like a sure home run before the wind stalled the moon shot as it climbed into the cool night air.
In the end, it was just a loud out.
The reversal of fortunes for Longoria and Pena during this postseason has been startling, and simultaneous. In four ALCS games against Boston from Oct. 11 to Oct. 16, Longoria was 6-for-17 with two doubles, four homers and seven RBI, including a homer in each game.
In the five games since, Longoria is 1-for-18 with one double and two RBI, including 0-for-12 with six strikeouts and no walks in the World Series.
Pena, meanwhile, was 7-for-17 with a double, three homers and six RBI in that four-game period Oct. 11-16. In five games since, he has gone 0-for-17 with one RBI and seven strikeouts.
To summarize: Longoria and Pena were a combined 13-for-34 with seven homers and 13 RBI in four games Oct. 11-16, and in five games since then, they’re a combined 1-for-35 with three RBI and 13 strikeouts.
Speaking of amazing stats….After three World Series games, Phillies hitters had as many wins as hits with runners in scoring position. Before the game-ending chopped dribbler that gave them the win in Game 3, Philly hitters were 1-for-33 with runners in scoring position.
They are 6-for-51 (.118) with one homer with runners on base, and 18-for-49 with four homers with none on base, including solo homers in Game 3 by Ruiz, Chase Utley and Ryan Howard off Matt Garza, the 24-year-old Rays ace, who was outdueled by Phillies old man Jamie Moyer, who’ll be 46 next month.
The Phillies have a 2-1 series lead despite being 2-for-33 with RISP, 0-for-11 with RISP and two outs, and 3-for-22 in the late innings of close games.
The homer by Howard was his second in 15 career postseason games, and his first since he went deep against Colorado in the 2007 division series in his second playoff game.
The big first baseman had been 11-for-44 with three doubles and three RBI in 12 playoff games between homers.
”TALK OF THE TOWN” by The Pretenders
Such a drag to want something sometime
One thing leads to another I know
Was a time wanted you for mine
Nobody knew
You arrived like a day
And passed like a cloud
I made a wish, I said it out loud
Out loud in a crowd
Everybody heard
‘twas the talk of the town
It’s not my place to know what you feel
I’d like to know but why should I?
Who were you then, who are you now?
Common laborer by night, by day highbrow
Back in my room I wonder, then I
Sit on the bed, look at the sky
Up in the sky
Clouds rearrange
Like the talk of the town
Maybe tomorrow, maybe someday
Maybe tomorrow, maybe someday
You’ve changed your place in this world
You’ve changed your place in this world
Oh but it’s hard to live by the rules
I never could and still never do
The rules and such never bothered you
You call the shots and they follow
I watch you still from a distance then go
Back to my room, you never know
I want you, I want you but now
Who’s the talk of the town?
Permalink | Comments (654) | Post your comment |
Which Braves prospects are untouchable?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Philadelphia — I’m in chilly Philly and Braves officials are not. But neither are officials from most other teams, save for the participating Phillies and Rays.
Gone is the day when all major league teams sent all their top officials to the World Series to mingle and start talking about potential trades and free agents.
In fact, I’m not aware of any team that sent its brass to this World Series. With the general managers meetings coming up next week in Dana Point, Calif., earlier than those meetings were held in past years, most teams decided to prepare for that instead of coming to the World Series.
Which is my long way toward getting to the fact that I talked to Braves GM Frank Wren on the phone this morning, me in my Philly hotel room, him not. (I’m out at the ballpark now, about to try to find Willy Aybar when they open the Tampa Bay clubhouse, see if he’ll talk to me for a story.)
As you can imagine, the subject of Jake Peavy came up in my conversation with Wren.
Specifically we talked about the latest development, wherein Wren was asked this week about speculation that he might trade multiple top prospects and either Yunel Escobar or Kelly Johnson for Peavy, the San Diego ace who’s suddenly the best available pitcher this winter not named CC (suddenly, meaning when the season ended nobody suspected the Padres would be shopping Peavy, who has four years and $59 million left on a very reasonable (relatively speaking, of course) contract, plus a fifth-year option at $22 mill with a $4 mill buyout).
Anyway, most of the speculation had come from a couple of media outlets quoting anonymous officials from teams other than the involved Padres or Braves. And Wren pointed out that most of the speculation was flat-out wrong. I asked him about all that this morning, trying to get a little more out of him. I got a little. But not much.
I asked if anything had changed since the day after the regular season ended, when Wren said that he had no intention of trading the top-tier prospects from a group he considers to be the next wave of talent that will infuse the Braves over the next three seasons.
No, he said. Nothing had changed, despite the fact that Peavy became available since then. Wren hasn’t and wouldn’t acknowledge this morning that the Braves are pursuing Peavy, but they are.
They just aren’t doing so with the top-layer prospects that some have suggested they are offering, including top pitching prospect Tommy Hanson and five-tool outfielder Jason Heyward.
“What I told you that day still holds,” Wren said, referring to his comments after the season ended, about not trading his top prospects. “There are certain guys we’re not going to move in any deal, because we think they are part of this next wave. And there’s other guys … we would be open to moving.”
Hanson and Heyward, along with 17-year-old pitcher Julio Teheran, are known to be on the Braves’ off-limits list. It’s believed that first baseman Freddie Freeman and center fielders Jordan Schafer and Gorkys Hernandez have close to that same “untouchable” status.
But Wren wouldn’t specifically say who’s on that list. He did mention that the Braves are fortunate to have enough quality depth in their system to still pursue trades that could fill one or more of their three primary offseason objectives: Acquire two proven starting pitchers and a power-hitting outfielder.
It’s not known how many could be available for trade, but certainly there are several available and attractive to other teams from a group that includes the likes of right-handed pitchers Charlie Morton and Kris Medlen (either could probably be plugged into the San Diego rotation, something Towers has said he’s looking for in any deal for Peavy), Stephen Marek and James Parr; lefties Cole Rohrbough, Jeff Locke and Scott Diamond; catcher Tyler Flowers; and infielders Brandon Hicks, Travis Jones and Eric Campbell.
Again, Wren wouldn’t say how many or give any names — understandable considering he doesn’t want Braves prospects trying to figure out who among them is untouchable, and doesn’t want to show his hand prematurely to other teams.
“There’s a group of players we’re not going to move under any circumstances,” Wren said. “They are a core group of players we’re just not going to move.
“Fortunately for us, we’ve got a lot of depth. Outside of our core, we’ve got a lot of depth to make moves. We can make significant moves without touching that core.”
Once this World Series is over, things could start getting interesting fairly quickly, folks.
If not Peavy…. We know how Chipper Jones feels about A.J. Burnett, after his quotes here last week about the potential Toronto free agent. Jones loves Burnett’s swagger and stuff and the fact he’s a strikeout pitcher and “bulldog” who goes to the mound looking to throw a complete-game shutout, like Peavy does.
So what would it cost to sign Burnett, who’s expected to opt out of the final two $12 mill option years of his contract and become a free agent next week? I’m told that the Blue Jays are going to make him a take-it-or-leave-it offer of about four years and $54 million, basically two $15 mill years on top of the $12 mill option years.
That would virtually assure he’ll opt for the “leave it” rather than “take it” and he’ll hit the open market. It’ll be interesting to see where the bidding goes, but I’d bet he’ll get at least a four-year offer worth $60-64 million, and perhaps significantly more.
Not quite sure if the Braves as an organization like him as much as Chipper does, but I do know Wren has known A.J. since the pitcher was drafted by the Marlins when Wren was Florida’s asst. GM.
This just in … Yankees to spend big bucks…. But you already knew that.
I only bring it up because I’m smiling as I stare at the back page of today’s NY Daily News (bought it by mistake, thought I was buying Philly Daily News). It’s a full-page cartoon drawing of Hank Steinbrenner holding a piggy bank with the Yankees’ logo on it. He has a crazed smile, a cig hanging out of his mouth and a hammer in his hand (you know, to break the bank).
The headline reads, “Hanky Banky” and the subhead says, “Expect Baby Boss to spend like a piggy in offseason.”
Gotta love the tabs.
McMurtry coming to Atlanta: The Man is coming to Atlanta, to the little Red Light Cafe in midtown. James McMurtry live will change your life (or at least make it a lot better for a couple hours).
”RACHEL’S SONG” by James McMurtry
Must be a cold front coming
Cause I saw the eastbound C&O
And the coal cars were dusted with a half inch of snow
And that boy’ll drive me crazy
Don’t know what I’ll do with him
School will be out tomorrow if that cold front moves in
Calling out
To the dying daylight
The shadows of the mountains
Bringing on the night
The old folks like to whisper
He favors your side in his face
When he gets a little older
He’s going to lead a merry chase
When I’m all alone it’s all right
It isn’t going to wound my pride
If anyone can claim they’re all right
So can I
I wrecked the El Camino
Would have been DWI
So I just walked off and left it
Laying on its side
The troopers found it in the morning
And they said it’s purely luck I wasn’t killed
I probably ought to quit my drinking
But I don’t believe I will
When I’m all alone it’s all right
It isn’t going to wound my pride
If anyone can claim they’re all right
So can I
He used to ask about you
About a million times a day
I got so tired of trying to answer
I just turned my head away
Now he don’t pay me much attention
He’s not asking anymore
I guess he’d probably know you
If you walked back in the door
Calling out to the empty night
Watching as the snowflakes
Come dancing round the light
Dancing up against the window
It’s like they’re peeking through the glass
And they hover for a moment
And then they fall on past
Calling out
Permalink | Comments (360) | Post your comment |
Jake could make for J-heavy rotation
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
A few things while pondering how a rotation with Jake, Jair and Jorge would be in J-overload if Jo-Jo were also to join (realizing, of course, his name actually has nothing to do with why Jo-Jo Reyes could be left out of said rotation).
Oh, by the way, folks: Nice job crashing the previous blog with comment clog, for the second time in a week. You guys do realize it’s the offseason, right? (We kid. Participation and passion are always welcome.)
We’ll keep this entry brief (we always say that, seldom follow through) and let you folks have at it. Because if you’re going to make predictions on the World Series we’ve got to have them in quickly, since making a prediction after one team falls behind, say, 5-0 in the first two innings of Game 1 will not carry much weight.
I’m going with Cole Hamels to win the battle of stellar young lefties tonight against Scott Kazmir, and Hamels’ Phillies taking the World Series in seven games. Yes, goin’ the distance.
I’ll be up in Philly for Games 3, 4 and, provided its necessary, Game 5. We’ll have a good chunk of the AJC sportswriting staff in Philly this weekend, with a few across the street from Citizens Bank Park at the Falcons-Eagles game.
But for the first two games, I’ll be watching on TV, just like you all. Then watching Sons of Anarchy on DVR tonight after Game 1.
We’ll stay on top of any developments in the Peavy saga and report them as soon as we get anything, obviously. I say this because sometimes I get e-mails from people asking me what’s happening, what do I know, etc, as if I’m keeping the best stuff to myself, out of the paper and off the blog.
Speaking of pitching, or lack thereof, I forgot to mention this the other day when I found this while pillaging through team-by-team pitching totals: Do you realize the Braves were the only NL team without at least two starters who pitched 150 innings this season?
Jair Jurrjens had 188-1/3, and Hudson was next at 142. Jorge Campillo pitched 158-2/3 innings, but only 137 came as a starter.
That’s amazing. And for a team that for so long led the league with three and sometimes four starters who pitched 200 innings, many of them topping 220 back in the day, which really wasn’t long ago.
One other unrelated note: Because I’m going to the GM meetings in two weeks, I had to do the absentee voting thing today. Folks, I stood in line for two hours. Two hours! That’s what happens when Dekalb County has just one place to do absentee voting before next week.
I love that so many people are doing their civic duty and all, but two hours was absolutely excruciating for someone with no patience (that’d be me).
By the way, I’ll break with blog rules and share with you how I voted: Yes, on both measures involving the Homestead Exemption.
This just in: McCann is good. Got an e-mail today from someone connected with the 2009 Bill James Handbook, which just ranked Brian McCann in its Top 25 players under age 30.
The Braves’ 24-year-old catcher is 22nd, one spot behind Stephen Drew, and just ahead of Miguel Cabrera. Not bad company, I’d say.
James ranked the Braves ninth for overall young talent on the major league roster, up from 16th a year ago. They were ranked just ahead of the Boston Red Sox.
The top 10 teams: 1. Minnesota, 2. Arizona, 3. Tampa Bay, 4. Florida, 5. Kansas City, 6. Milwaukee, 7. Cleveland, 8. Colorado, 9. Atlanta, 10. Boston.
Here’s a couple things from the press release: “…. The Braves ranked 16th in our survey last year, but shot up the list due to a solid year by McCann and the emergence of Jurrjens, Yunel Escobar, and others (Gregor Blanco, Jorge Campillo, Martin Prado, Jo-Jo Reyes, Josh Anderson.) Francoeur and Kelly Johnson are still young players. They just need for some of these guys to pump up the volume.”
And from an explanation of the rankings: “To achieve his inventory, James first eliminates from the list all players who were 30 years old or older in 2008. He employs two widely used statistics — “Runs Created” for position players and “Runs Allowed” for pitchers-as the basis for comparison. He makes several adjustments, including for injuries suffered during the year and the differences in predictability between pitchers and position players, and then takes into account the number of years the player should be at his peak performance.
(Blogmaster note: If you notice, everybody on this list is 26 or younger, so it appears that age was also taken into account, with the younger players given credit for their youth, more or less. If Josh Hamilton were on the list, he’d be the oldest, at 27.)
James’ Top 10 young players (and their ages): 1. Prince Fielder (24), 2. Hanley Ramirez (24), 3. Tim Lincecum (24), 4. David Wright (25), 5. Ryan Braun (24), 6. Dustin Pedroia (24), 7. Matt Kemp (23), 8. Francisco Rodriguez (26), 9. Jose Reyes (25), and 10. Nick Markakis (24).
The next 15: 11. Joakim Sorian (24), 12. Ryan Zimmerman (23), 13. Cole Hamels (24), 14. Troy Tulowitzki (23), 15. Felix Hernandez (22), 16. Jon Lester (24), 17. Evan Longoria (22), 18. John Danks (23), 19. Adrian Gonzalez (26), 20. James Loney (24), 21. Drew (25), 22. McCann, 23. Cabrera (25), 24. Grady Sizemore (25), 25. Joey Votto (24).
The 3B is excited about moves: I’ve talked to several Braves players who’ve closely followed the reports of potential offseason moves the team could make, including Chipper Jones. It’s the offseason, and you might have heard the old dude keeps an eye on the blog and other sources of info.
I quoted him in a story about Peavy earlier this week (you can find it on our Braves page at AJC.com), but here’s another quote from Chipper that didn’t make it in the story.
I asked him about the rumors of what the Braves might do, and Frank Wren stating they’re going after two proven starting pitchers and a power-hitting outfielder:
“It’s nice that there’s at least smoke, and we’re gonna make some hay,” Jones said, seamlessly blending two figures of speech into one. “Whether it’s free agent market or via trade, nice that we’re gonna be active.
“That’s good. It’s an exciting time,” he said, then again revealed his fondness for Braves/MIB denizens. “It keeps our fans reading the papers, reading the blogs to see what might be on the horizon. The Braves have said they want to make a splash.
“We need pitching, no doubt about that. There’s some good ones out there, some marquee names that are out there. Don’t know if we’ll be able to afford the really big names, but there’s enough out there that getting a couple of them can make us a contender next year.”
He went on to talk about Peavy and about A.J. Burnett, and that stuff’s in the story I wrote. Here it is again, in case you missed it:
“I don’t think the organization can survive too many more Teixeira trades,” Jones said. “Don’t get me wrong, it’s great to get a guy like Tex and have him produce the way he did. But what you give up for such a short-term fix can set your minor league organization back quite a bit. And it did. We don’t have a lot of prospects at the higher levels. We have a ton at the lower levels.
“You want to be very careful you don’t stunt the growth of your minor league system by trading away all the good ones for a short-term fix. Now this Peavy thing, it’s not a short-term fix. Getting a guy in his prime for four or five years, at or velow market value…
“There’s no doubt [the Braves need an ace]. If he was in the last year of his contract coming up, this would be the same scenario [as Teixeira]. But this is a lot different. You’re looking at a guy who’d be your opening-day starter for the next year four years.
“He’s one of those guys you don’t particularly like facing. And he’s a good guy, he’d fit right in with the guys [on the Braves]. He’s a golfer, a hunter, from the country, just like us. I think Atlanta would be a perfect fit for him.”
He went on to say this about Peavy and Burnett:
“There’s some names out there that are very appealing to me,” Jones said. “I like a guy like A.J. Burnett. I’ve always dreaded facing that guy, with the Marlins and whatnot. A.J. is a bulldog. Peavy’s a bulldog.
“Those guys, they take the mound, they want to stick it to you, and they’re competitors, not afraid to show emotions, stuff like that. I think that’s great. They’re not showing anybody up, they just want to win.
“I think that, at times, is something we’ve been missing, that guy who’s going to walk out on the mound, and when he walks on the mound he’s looking to throw a complete-game shutout. That kind of competitive spirit would be good for this clubhouse and this team.
“And they’re both strikeout pitchers. We all know that’s what wins in the postseason. You get two power arms like that, you’ve got a formula for not just being built for 162 games, but for a short series.”
Speaking of Chipper…. He’s hosting his annual Chiper Jones Invitational Golf Tournament Nov. 3 at Bear’s Best Atlanta Golf Course, with proceeds to benefit the Cystic Fibrosis Foundation.
You can help raise funds by participating in the raffle at www.netRaffle.org. A grand prize winner will be invited to play with three of his or her friends in the tournament and receive four tickets to the banquet/acution on Nov. 2.
Raffle tickets are $2 each and there’s a minimum five-ticket purchase. The raffle closes on Monday (Oct. 28) at 9 a.m.
No kidding: They just showed the national anthem being performed … by the Backstreet Boys. Really, Tampa Bay? The Backstreet Boys?
Oh, well. Enjoy the game, folks.
“TUESDAY’S GONE” by Allen Collins & Ronnie Van Zant
Train, roll on, on down the line.
Won’t you, please, take me far away.
Now I feel the wind blow outside my door.
Means I’m, I’m leaving my woman at home.
Tuesday’s gone with the wind.
Oh, my baby’s gone with the wind.
And I just don’t know, oh, where I’m going.
I just want to be left alone.
Well, when this train ends I’ll try again
Oh, but I’m leaving my woman at home.
Tuesday’s gone with the wind.
Tuesday’s gone with the wind.
Tuesday’s gone with the wind.
My baby’s gone with the wind.
Train, roll on, Tuesday’s gone.
Train, roll on many miles from my home.
See I’m, I’m riding my blues away, yeh.
Tuesday, you see, she had to be free.
Lord, but somehow I’ve got to carry on.
Tuesday’s gone with the wind.
Tuesday’s gone with the wind.
Tuesday’s gone with the wind.
My baby’s gone with the wind.
Train, roll on ‘cause my baby’s gone…
I’m riding my blues away, baby
turn around my blues
ride on, train, ride on, train
ridin’ my blues, babe
come back to me, babe
come back to me
oo-oo-oo-oo-oo-ooh train….
Permalink | Comments (422) | Post your comment |
Peavy waits, Beckett wins, Joba detoxes
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
No doubt, TBS had a bad Saturday with its nightmare technical glitch that caused us to miss most of the first inning of ALCS Game 6. And yes, we at AJC.com had a bad Saturday with technical problems that knocked this blog out, coincidentally just after the TBS glitch, and kept it down much longer than TBS was away from the game.
But as bad a day as it was for TBS and for us, it was worse for New York Yankees officials. Yes, the Yankees.
Not only did their arch rival Red Sox further solidify themselves as the clutch team of the early 21 century, coming back from a 7-0 seventh-inning deficit in Game 5 to force Game 6 (which Boston won Saturday), but the Yankees also learned the young pitcher the Yanks are grooming as an ace, Joba Chamberlain, was arrested at 1 a.m. Saturday in Nebraska for DUI, speeding, and open container.
So, while Boston ace Josh Beckett was showing Tampa Bay’s so-called “Big Game” James Shield what it meant to truly be a big-game pitcher, Chamberlain was holed up in something called Cornhusker Place Detox in Lincoln, Neb., which sounds more like a place ‘Husker football fans might have been sent during the Bill Callahan coaching tenure.
The horror.
By the way, I couldn’t help but wonder if Brian Cashman might have made an early morning phone call to San Diego on Saturday, before the news broke. Imagine Padres GM Kevin Towers being awakened, fumbling for his phone at 7 a.m. Pacific time.
The call might have gone like this:
“Hello,” Towers answers with raspy, sleepy voice.
“Good morning, Kevin,” says the caller. “This is Brian. Cashman. Sorry to wake you, but I knew you’d probably be up soon and going for a jog on the beach before settling in to watch college football games. So I didn’t want to bother you later.
“Anyway, look. I’ve been thinking about our chat last week about Jake. And you know what, that proposal you had involving Joba Chamberlain and prospects might not have been as unfair as I indicated at the time. I mean, we really love Joba and there’s almost no way we’d trade him. But….”
OK, that was my blog introduction on a day when we don’t have any new developments to report in the matter that hangs over Braves Nation: Peavy. Jake Peavy. Jake Freakin’ Peavy.
To say that Braves fans want GM Frank Wren to trade for Peavy, to bring the San Diego ace from Alabama back “home” to Atlanta and have him start the next four (at least) Opening Days for the Braves, would be a gigantic understatement.
Akin to saying Bear Bryant was revered in ‘Bama. Something like that.
You don’t believe me? Look at the poll on our AJC.com Braves page. The question: Should the Braves acquire Jake Peavy from the Padres? The answer choices are: “Yes,” “No,” or “Someone else.”
(OK, so the choices are quite a bit simpler than the execution and don’t take into account what the cost might be for said acquisition, and yes, that last option, “someone else,” seems a bit awkward for an answer to the question “Should the Braves acquire Jake Peavy from the Padres. But you know what it meant, so stop picking nits and go with it.)
(By the way, just so folks here know, I don’t write the poll questions. Occasionally in the past, they asked me submit a poll question, but the last time I did was months ago. Not saying the polls are good, bad or in-between, just saying I don’t write them, so that some of you might stop asking me.)
Anyway, back to this particular poll question (and by the way, say what you will, but our Braves polls generally get pretty big damn responses).
As of 12:25 p.m. Sunday, there were 5782 “yes” votes, 368 “no” votes, and 154 “someone else” votes. Folks, that’s 91.7 percent “yes” responses. Wow.
Then it’s decided. Frank Wren, get it done or let down roughly nine out of 10 Brave fans. (Man, that’s the kind of pressure that could end up putting a person in Cornhusker Place Detox.)
But seriously, I’m guessing it’s about 95-percent chance the Padres trade Peavy before this year’s July 31 deadline, and about 90 percent that it’s done this winter. OK, make that 92-percent chance it’s done this winter.
And I’ll go with — now this is really just speculating here — 65-percent chance it’s done before the winter meetings Dec. 8-11 in Las Vegas.
Speaking of Vegas, I’d say odds that the Braves get Peavy are at least as good as they are for any other team, and probably better. I believe that because of the “hometown” thing.
Atlanta ain’t Mobile, but it’s sure a hell of a lot closer, literally and figuratively, than New York is. Or St. Louis, for that matter. I do think the Cardinals have the second-best chance of getting him. Houston would, because Peavy would like to pitch alongside his hunting buddy Roy Oswalt and give the Astros the best 1-2 pitching tandem in all of baseball. Yes, all of baseball.
But do you really think the Astros are going to both part with the prospects and pay the $63 mill that Peavy’s owed over the next four years (or $81 mill for five years), when they already owe Oswalt a guaranteed $45 million over the next three seasons, plus either a $16 mill option in 2012 or $2 mill buyout?
Folks, they are the Astros, not the Yankees. I just can’t see them tying up $110 million in two starting pitchers over the next four seasons, both of whom have had at least some arm concerns, though neither has had surgery.
(And speaking of that, in regards to the concerns some have raised on the blog about Peavy’s elbow issues: People, in this day and age, seriously, how many pitchers 25 and older haven’t had arm problems, or at least some concerns? Goes with the territory.)
Again, most of you are right in that the Braves are undoubtedly going to have to have to give up multiple talented players/prospects to get Peavy. You just don’t get an in-his-prime ace, one of the best 10 in the game (and many in baseball would say he’s in the top five) and a guy who’s under a reasonable contract for the next four or five years, without giving up talent in return.
But I also think the Braves can get it done without giving up either of the “untouchables,” OF Jason Heyward or 17-year-old pitcher Julio Teheran, and probably without giving up future Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman.
Gan they do it without giving up Tommy Hanson, a potential Braves starter in 2008? That, I don’t know. Maybe they could pull it off with a package that includes two of the Braves’ other best five or so pitching prospects (they have a handful of real good ones), but that might be only if the Padres get Yunel Escobar as the centerpiece of that deal.
I don’t know if the Braves will do that. I’ll be they’re a little more willing amenable to an Escobar trade now than a year ago. Not to throw the shortstop under the bus, but he showed some aspects of his temper, and some borderline surliness, this season that appeared to be a regression to his minor-league attitudinal problems, at least that’s the way I interpreted it.
Personally, I think Yunel is an extremely talented player and a guy who’s great to have on the team and in the clubhouse when things are going well. But he seems to have a bit of an nasty edge that shows in the face of adversity, both on the field when things don’t go his or his team’s way, and in the clubhouse when he’s dealing with injuries or other unpleasantness that goes with the business of baseball.
But I know the Braves still see him as a potential All-Star shortstop, a guy with a ton of talent. And that cannon of an arm … well, you don’t find many of those in the game. I’ve seen three — Shawon Dunston, Rafael Furcal, and Yunel. The Braves not absolutely not trying to move Escobar. They’d much prefer to keep him.
However, Kevin Towers mentioned that the Padres, in a deal for Peavy, would probably be looking for a couple of major-league ready young pitchers and, after that, probably a middle infielder.
Does Kris Medlen fit the bill of near major-league ready? Maybe so, since he’s been mentioned as a possible Braves starter at some point in 2009. And how about Stephen Marek, the hard-throwing reliever the Braves got from the Angels as the overlooked-but-talented other piece in the Tex/Kotchman trade? No one would be surprised if he won a spot in the Braves’ bullpen in 2009.
So how ‘bout Medlen, Marek and Escobar for Peavy? The Padres would be getting a big upgrade at shortstop, with Escobar replacing Khalil Greene. I should say, I only think the Braves would do such a deal involving Escobar if they were either getting Greene along with Peavy, or had another shortstop possibility lined up in another trade. Greene would seem more likely in that scenario.
Or maybe the Padres like Braves 2B Kelly Johnson to have him be the middle infielder Towers seeks along with two young pitchers. I haven’t heard that yet, haven’t heard whether the Padres see Yunel or Kelly as a sought-after target.
These things should start to firm up in the next week or weeks, perhaps even sooner. You never know when it comes to Towers. He might try to play one team off another and drive up the price for Peavy, or he might decide that he’d like to move his guy now before the free-agent aces hit the market.
But he surely also knows the Braves would much prefer to trade for Peavy than try to fill their No. 1-starter need with a free agent.
Diversions: Tonight (Sunday) is one of those nights when technology is our friend. Specifically, the DVR and/or OnDemand television. Because we’ve got Game 7 of the ALCS, a riveting episode of the outstanding show Mad Men on AMC, plus another episode in what’s become a solid season (after a slow start) of Entourage. Speaking of Mad Men, the season’s ending and I’m not ready to let go of bodacious Joan Holloway. Oh my, the best thing to look at on TV…. Saw a really good movie on DVD this week, called Boy A. About a kid who goes to jail as adolescent for his part in the murder of a young girl, then is paroled years later, in his early 20s, and takes a new name and job in another part of the country. Eventually word gets out about his past, and, well, it’s a wrenching story, man. Fine moviemaking.
Musically speaking…. New Hank III album (called “Damn Right, Rebel Proud”) coming out Tuesday. Anybody heard anything from it yet? Can do so here: http://www.curb.com/artists/hw3/amazonpromo_rebelproud/
Listening a lot to the new Okkervil River CD “The Stage Names,” which isn’t quite as good as their last one, “The Stand Ins,” or “Black Sheep Boy” before that. But that’s only because those two were grade-A albums. This latest album, I’d give a B-plus. Great band. Speaking of literate, all-hands-on-deck bands, when is Arcade Fire going to release a new CD?
The recently dormant alt-country band Giant Sand is back with a cool CD, “Provisions,” released about a month or so ago. I didn’t even know they were still around until I stumbled upon the CD this past week. It’s typically experimental, trippy, mostly mellow, and fit for, oh, a dive bar in the Mojave desert. But if you’ve heard them before and dug ‘em, you’ll like this one. Got a lot of Calexico in them, but not as accessible. By the way, get the recently released Calexico album if you’ve liked any of their previous stuff. It’s strong.
Can I just say (of course I can) that the world is a better place when two tough women, Chrissie Hynde and Lucinda Williams put out new music in an eight-day span. Love the new CDs by Hynde’s reconfigured Pretenders and the ever-stellar Lucinda….
Oh, and these remastered and expanded Creedence Clearwater Revival CDs well worth the price, even if you have the stuff already. I’ve been playing “Green River” and “Cosmo’s Factory” a lot. What a great band. Americana/Al-country decades before anyone ever came up with those labels. Don at Ella Guru had a few cheaply priced copies of the CCR remasters last week. Don’t know if he still does.
R.I.P. Levi Stubbs, golden-voiced lead singer of the Four Tops. He died Friday.
”LEVI STUBBS’ TEARS” by Billy Bragg
With the money from her accident
She bought herself a mobile home
So at least she could get some enjoyment
Out of being alone
No one could say that she was left up on the shelf
It’s you and me against the World kid she mumbled to herself
When the world falls apart some things stay in place
Levi Stubbs’ tears run down his face
She ran away from home with her mother’s best coat
She was married before she was even entitled to vote
And her husband was one of those blokes
The sort that only laughs at his own jokes
The sort that war takes away
And when there wasn’t a war he left her anyway
Norman Whitfield and Barrett Strong
Are here to make right everything that’s wrong
Holland and Holland and Lamont Dozier. too
Are here to make it all okay with you
One dark night he came home from the sea
And put a hole in her body where no hole should be
It hurt her more to see him walking out the door
And though they stitched her back together they left her heart in pieces on the floor
When the world falls apart some things stay in place
She takes off the Four Tops tape and puts it back in its case
When the world falls apart some things stay in place
Levi Stubbs’ tears run down his face
Enough postseason, let’s get to Peavy
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
So I’m getting the distinct impression that most of you on the Braves/MIB blog would like to be done already with this postseason so we can get on to important stuff: the Braves’ pursuit of starting pitchers and a power-hitting outfielder.
Or rather, their pursuit of Jake Peavy and, yeah, whatever else.
Yes, a bit of Peavy Mania has hit the Braves/MIB blog, or is that just me trying to drive up online traffic, as one commenter here said after I first mentioned a little over a week ago that I thought the Braves should and surely would make a big push for Peavy?
It wasn’t idle speculation, folks. The Braves would love to have Peavy, and are exploring what it will take to get the hard-throwing right-hander.
Now, I don’t know if they discussed with Padres GM Kevin Towers the parameters of a proposal yet; I don’t think they have. But they’ve let Towers know they’re interested, and he’s made it clear Peavy can be had for the right price.
The man is 27 years old, was a unanimous winner of the 2007 NL Cy Young Award, has averaged 192 innings and 194 strikeouts in six full seasons in the majors, and is under contract through 2011. Ace in prime. Plain and simple.
Peavy will make $11 million in 2009, $15 million in 2010, $16 million in 2011 and $17 million in 2012. There’s also a big $22-million team option for 2013, with a $4 million buyout.
Other teams will surely make strong offers, too. But as I said before, the Braves have a potentially significant advantage in that Peavy is an Alabama boy, born and raised, and he and his wife and kids make their offseason home in ‘Bama, not in San Diego.
Translated: Can’t take the South out of this dude, who grew up loving the Braves and in the past has told friends how much he’d like to pitch for Atlanta.
And I’m not just talking about telling friends that years ago (though he did that, too.)
I received an e-mail couple days ago from a guy from Alabama. I agreed to leave out his name and hometown (only way he’d let me use this e-mail), but I’ve got every reason to believe it’s legit. The guy said he and his buddies stay in contact with Peavy, and have for years since the latter went off to forge a career.
He said he spent some time with Peavy this past season, and that the subject of the Braves came up then, as it had in the past with Peavy and his friends. The guy said he asked Peavy about playing for Atlanta, and the pitcher “said it was something that he had always wanted to do, and made it sound like that was his #1 option when his contract was up.” (That’s taken directly from the guy’s e-mail.)
Now, all this was before the Padres owner’s divorce and before the team went in the toilet on the way to 99 losses. They weren’t that bad at the time when this guy said he talked to Jake. Back then, a trade to the Braves or any team wasn’t being discussed.
This guy said in the e-mail that if the Padres hadn’t signed Peavy to his big contract a year ago, Peavy told him he probably would have eventually signed with the Braves after his arbitration years were up, even if it meant signing a below-market contract. (This guy insisted Peavy was becoming a little upset with the Padres — that is, until they finally came through with the big contract.)
Now, months later, Towers says he’ll listen to offers for Peavy.
The guy who said he’s an old friend of Peavy’s tells me that Peavy “wants to be closer to his and his wife’s family, and also has a phenomenal hunting camp in Camden, Alabama, where he spends a lot of time in the off season. So there is no doubt in my mind he would waive his no trade to [go to] Atlanta, and my guess is that he wouldn’t waive it to an American League team, even if his agent is saying that.”
(This, the e-mailer told me, is because Peavy likes the NL game, that he likes hitting and being into the whole game.)
OK, I know there will be some out there who question the validity of this e-mailer’s identity and friendship with Peavy. I did, too, initially. But like I said, he gave details and reasons why I believe this guy is on the up-and-up.
If this guy’s pulling my leg, he’s doing it well, and sure put a lot of effort into it.
If he’s sincere; well, you can understand why I thought it was worth sharing with you all. Besides, it should boost online traffic (wink).
For a Braves team with more than $40 mill to spend on additions for 2009, Peavy’s backloaded contract could work well because it would allow them to sign or trade for another starting pitcher and outfielder, and bring back one or more from the pitching group of Mike Hampton and, if they can pitch again, John Smoltz and/or Tom Glavine.
Hampton isn’t a slam-dunk, by any means. I get the impression he will consider all his options. In other words, as much as he’s liked pitching for the Braves (when healthy) and as much as they would like to have him back (healthy), he’s not going to take a clearly inferior offer from them over a better offer from another team, regardless of what was said publicly late in the season.
With Smoltz and Glavine, it’s still way too early to know if they’re going to be able to pitch again. Might not be until late December or January before we know, though it could obviously be a lot sooner if they struggle once they ramp up the intensity of throwing workouts later this winter.
But back to Peavy, who could be the answer to the Braves’ “ace” dilemma for quite some time.
Getting an in-his-prime ace like this cat, who’s averaged 13 wins over six full seasons for some lackluster (and some plain bad) San Diego teams, a guy with a sub-2.90 ERA in four of the past five seasons, is only a legit possibility because the retooling Padres might shed his salary if they get several good young players and/or solid prospects in return.
Peavy’s their all-time strikeout leader, and has iconic potential in San Diego, but if a team approaches Towers with an offer for Peavy that includes several young, inexpensive, potential impact players, and particularly a pitcher or two, he’ll surely listen. That’s become clear.
Braves GM Frank Wren said two weeks ago that the Braves might be able to make a trade — he wasn’t talking about Peavy, but just in general terms — using some of the Braves’ quality pitching depth in the minor league system. They don’t want to trade top pitching prospect Tommy Hanson or slugging prospects Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman, but perhaps the Braves — and this is just me speculating — might be willing to include one or two arms from the group that includes Cole Rohrbough, Jeff Locke, Kris Medlen, Scott Diamond and Todd Redmond, plus perhaps one from the group of position player prospects including Brent Lillibridge, Tyler Flowers, Brandon Jones, or perhaps even one of their top young center-field talents, Gorkys Hernandez or Jordan Schafer.
I’m not talking about four or five of those guys, but perhaps two or three of the good ones. And maybe, just maybe, the Padres, who are unsettled at second base, would be interested in Kelly Johnson, whose gappers would yield a ton of extra-base hits in Petco Park.
Anyway, in another week or two we might be able to do more than speculate. We might start to get a better idea of whether the Padres are really going to trade Peavy, and just how determined the Braves are to bring to Atlanta the Alabama native son.
Hey, these Phillies are pretty good: After getting their butts handed to them all season by the Phillies, at least the Braves might be able to take some solace knowing Philadelphia is headed to the World Series.
I’ll go even further than that. I think the Phillies, up 3-1 in the NLCS against the Dodgers before Wednesday’s Game 5, are going to win the World Series, regardless of whether they face the Tampa Bay Rays or Boston Red Sox.
(You should know, given my recent record in prognostication, you might want to make up your own mind before making any wagers.)
Anyway … early in the season, when National League hitters had something like six of the top seven OPS figures in baseball and the two leagues had virtually identical ERAs, I said perhaps the AL’s recent dominance was finally waning, the talent pool was more evenly divided again, and that the NL would finally snap its skid in the All-Star Game and get home-field advantage for the World Series.
That didn’t happen, but it won’t matter. Because with Josh Beckett and Big Papi at less than 100 percent, the Red Sox aren’t the powerhouse they were last fall. And the Rays, for all their magical success this season, are awfully young and inexperienced, especially in the starting rotation, to expect them to hold up under the glare of the World Series.
So mark it down now: The next World Series champion comes from the NL East.
Unless the Dodgers win Wednesday. Then all bets are off.
No, just kidding. The Phillies are going to win the World Series. Shane “I Need a Nice Hawaiian Punch” Victorino will be fitted for a World Series ring. Ryan Howard is going to come through on the biggest stage, before he is crowned NL MVP (that voting was done before the postseason started, and I think he’ll edge out Albert Pujols, though an equally strong case can be made for either.)
Now this is a dubious draft record: Plenty of talk here recently about the lack of top-flight pitchers who’ve been drafted and developed by the Braves. Of course, part of that has to do with the fact they didn’t pick high in the draft for a lot of years when they were winning 14 consecutive division titles.
Sort of along those same lines, consider the New York Yankees’ recent record of drafting position players. The New York Times noted that, according to a study by ESPN.com, the only position player drafted by the Yankees from 1997 to 2005 has compiled as many as 200 at-bats in the major leagues. Think about that. It’s pretty amazing.
That player? Andy Phillips, who’s no longer a Yankee.
Diversions: Just finished listening to the new Lucinda Williams CD, Little Honey. Good, not great, sorry to say. Last year’s West was better, and this isn’t anywhere near as good as her best including Car Wheels On a Gravel Road. I’ve only listened once. Maybe it’ll grow on me more with repeated listens. But that’s my initial impression.
Johnny Cash’s expended two-CD, one-DVD version of Live at Folson Prison was out today, but Don at Ella Guru hadn’t gotten his UPS shipment when I stopped by his store at noon, and I didn’t see the thing at Best Buy…. New Hank III CD out next Tuesday.
Meanhile, the more I listen to The Hold Steady Stay Positive CD the more I’m convinced it’ll be in my Top 5 at year’s end. The strange thing about it is, the very best songs on a stellar-from-start-to-finish CD are actually the three “bonus” songs that are on one 11-minute track at the end of the CD (I just read that only one of the three is included on the vinyl version; don’t know about downloading at ITunes or whatever, or if they maybe put the three together so they can’t be shared.) Anyway, this is one of those three great bonus songs at the end of an amazing album.
“TWO-HANDED HANDSHAKE”; by The Hold Steady
His two-handed handshake
Says he’s so glad to meet you
His one silver earring
Says he parties on weekends
He churns through the channels
When he’s watching the TV
He recites lines from movies
When he’s trying to be funny
Guys, it’s like we’re not even trying
Yeah, she danced with that one guy
She must know we’re watching
It seems like less people
Than were here just last weekend
She’s still pretty pi$$ed
About her ex’s new trick
There were stares
And glares and names
Girls, you know you’re not really helping
I don’t think that you’ll find love
In some bathroom at some club
I know some kids who didn’t come back
We had on Fridays
We’re pirates at port
We go in and we get high,
Two at a time
We get drunk on the sports
We’re falling into bed
With our television sets
We’re watching movies
That we’ve already seen
Guys, it’s like we’re not even trying
You dress like contestants
At some desparate pagaent
You fall asleep in your makeup
You wake up with a blemish
You’re making up your mind
About the drinks after work
It’s such a goss at the office
Girls, you’re gonna find someone
You don’t have to rush it
You’re too young to force your crushes
You don’t have to rush it
You’re too young to fake your crushes
Oooh
Guys, I’m pretty sure that we can put it back together
And girls, you gotta try to be nice to one another
Guys, I’m pretty sure that we can put it back together
And girls, you gotta try to be nice to one another
I don’t think we’ll get the truth
From kids with stickers on their boots
I know some kids who didn’t come back
From the plywood painted black
We gotta try a little harder
We gotta be a little better
We gotta pull it back together
Bobby Cox on TV’s “CSI” … sort of
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
So I’m relaxing last night, enjoying a needed slow week away from Braves news, watching the season premiere of CSI, when this random, improbable line is delivered by an actor in one of my favorite TV dramas:
“I can’t believe Bobby Cox is still managing.”
I had to go back (I was watching on DVR) to make sure I heard what I thought I heard.
Yes, in the middle of the season’s first episode, the corrupt cop who killed Warrick sits down in a hotel room, with what appears to be a Dodgers-Braves game playing on the TV, and that’s the first line he utters to the cop in the next room, the cop who the corrupt cop is ostensibly hiding and protecting (but actually is planning to kill).
Anyway, it was a surreal moment, and for a second I had to make sure I hadn’t been dreaming.
Anyway, hope things are going well for all the denizens out there in the short lull between the regular season and baseball’s version of the NASCAR “silly season,” in which large contracts are to be handed out and trades consummated.
Anything but silly for the parties involved, and all of us who spend so much time either watching, writing about, reading about, or simply enjoying baseball.
Looking forward to seeing whether the Phillies can take this NLCS and whether the Rays can give the seasoned Red Sox a run in the ALCS. In the meantime, I’ve spent most of an off week running around doing errands and fixing stuff in my house, normal-life stufrf that I don’t have time to do from early February until at least the first week of October.
Speaking of schedule, you guys notice how much later it starts next year? Opening day isn’t until April 6, a full week later than this past season’s March 30 Braves opener.
And yet we go to Dark Star at the same time. Pitchers and catchers report Feb. 14, full-squad reports Feb. 17, first full-squad workout is 18th. Yes, that means nearly an extra week immersed in Disneyfication.
But hey, no need to start with the cynicism now. I’ve vowed to cut back the frequency of my snide comments about that place. No, really, I’ve made that vow. To myself. But only myself. Which means it’ll be easy to break….
Speaking of the 2009 season, I noticed a comment here today from one of the denizens, a guy wondering whether the stock market decline and general state of the economy might have an impact on the Braves’ stated plans to raise payroll (by an unspecified amount).
So I took your concern straight to the man who would know, CEO Terry McGuirk. I asked him if the economy might have caused Liberty Media to reconsider and if there might be any changes to that plan to raise payroll, which GM Frank Wren discussed the day after the season ended.
And here’s the e-mail response I got from McGuirk a few minutes ago: “No changes. Full speed ahead.”
So there you have it, folks. Straight from the horse’s mouth, so to speak. No changes to the plan to raise payroll (by an unspecified amount).
Andruw in Atlanta: Watching baseball on TV, like the rest of us. That’s what Andruw Jones is doing these days.
The L.A. Times’ Dylan Hernandez caught up with the former 10-time Braves Gold Glove center fielder and Dodgers first-year bust at his suburban Atlanta home this week.
Jones was moved to the 60-day DL on Sept. 13, after hitting .158 with three homers and 76 strikeouts in 209 at-bats for the Dodgers in an epic career free-fall.
More than anything, the move was a way to open a spot on the 40-man roster, since the Dodgers had no intention of having Jones on their postseason roster after his woeful performance. Yes, he had knee problems all season, and had one knee ‘scoped before the All-Star break.
But folks, believe me when I tell you, Jones played with similar knee pain in recent seasons with the Braves. He played hurt more than anybody else in the lineup, and played quite well.
But not this year. Whether age, weight and/or accumulation of injuries, his bat slowed down and pitchers exploited his inability to get to breaking balls away and his inexplicable tendency to “bail out” on swings more than ever before.
He was a first-year disaster for the Dodgers, after the signed him to a two-year, $38.2 million contract that left many of us with jaws agape when it was first announced during last year’s Winter Meetings in Nashville.
After the Dodgers moved him to the 60-day DL last month, Andruw asked manager Joe Torre and GM Ned Colletti if he could leave the team rather than get in others’ way in the training room.
That, plus, “I don’t want to jinx them,” Jones said in the Times article, referring to the Dodgers, who rolled over the Brewers in the division series but dropped NLCS Game 1 against the Phillies and Utley/Burrell.
Andruw has a sophisticated batting cage and gym in his home here in the ‘burbs, and he said he’s getting his knee ready to play winter ball in the Dominican Republic in December, which would be the first winter-ball experience for the Curacao native since 1996.
To me, this falls squarely under the category of desperate times calling for desperate measures. Good choice by Andruw to play winter ball, if you ask me.
“I had a bad season and a terrible season back-to-back,” he told the Times. “I have to have a great season and show people I have baseball left in me.”
If he plans to get another significant contract, he’s going to have to show he’s not washed up at 31.
Andruw told the Times that the Dodgers should try to re-sign Manny Ramirez, but added, “If they sign him, there’s going to be another issue. We’ll still have me and Juan Pierre. [Andre] Ethier has to play. Matt Kemp’s going to have to play.”
“After they win the World Series, it’s going to be interesting,” he said, adding that he expects to be the Dodgers’ every-day center fielder next season. “I’m an every-day guy or I need to move out,” he said.
Yeah, I’m sure the Dodgers would have no problem moving him and that $18 mill salary in 2009.
Uh, about that offer for the Cubs…. You think maybe Tribune Co. wishes it had pulled the trigger and sold to Mark Cuban or one of the other suitors who were prepared to pay $1 billion or more for the team, Wrigley Field and the whole operation lock, stock and barrel earlier this year?
Between the collapse of the economy and the collapse of the Cubs in the first round of the postseason, the price tag might have dropped quite a bit in recent weeks. Speculation is that Tribune will have no choice but to wait a while for the stock market and economy to recover a bit, that or take quite a bit less than those preliminary offers they were mulling from several potential ownership groups.
“Yeah, it’s going to affect the deal structure,” Cuban said to Chicago reporters on Thursday, before his Dallas Mavericks played the Chicago Bulls in an exhibition game at Chicago. “Because of the way the deal was originally meant to be structured, it’s going to create a challenge. So it’ll certainly have an impact. Anytime the cost of capital goes up, the cost of assets goes down. Which is what you’re seeing in the stock market….
“In a market like this, when there’s so much uncertainty and IBM and General Electric don’t know how much they’re going to pay on a loan, Mark Cuban doesn’t know, either. Six months ago, you could say: ‘Here’s how much this debt is going to cost you. Here are the terms that are available. Yes or no?’ Now you can’t do that anymore. Even if we wanted to close the day after tomorrow, the banks might not be able to close. There’s that uncertainty that gets involved. So that just changes the tenor of it.”
Those screams you just heard were the Tribune Co. executives and baseball executives who thought it would be wise to make this sale proceed at the same pace — glacial — that most such transactions or rules changes occur in baseball.
Peavy speculation: While teams wait for the postseason to conclude so the silly season can begin in earnest, Padres GM Kevin Towers’ recent comments that he might listen to potential offers for ace Jake Peavy has predictably led to speculation the deep-pocketed Yankees will be potential players in the matter.
Peavy’s agent, Barry Axelrod, told the Bergen Record of New Jersey on Thursday that Peavy’s first choice is to be on a winning team with the Padres, but that if they were going into rebuilding mode for three or four years, that’s now what his client “signed on for.”
Axelrod said if the Padres wanted to trade him, Peavy would consider waiving his no-trade clause, depending upon the location. The agent told The Record that there were “three teams in the AL that could entice him.”
“Any kid, you’d imagine, always thinks about wearing the pinstripes some day,” Axelrod told the paper. “But it’d be a pretty significant move for him.”
Folks, I’ll repeat what I said earlier this week: Peavy is an Alabama native, a country boy who goes home and lives in ‘Bama with his wife and kids once the season ends.
He grew up loving the Braves, and I’m guessing Peavy would waive his no-trade clause in a heartbeat if the Braves made an offer for him that entices the Padres. Now it’s just a matter of how serious the Padres are about dealing him, and whether the Braves would be willing to give up at least one of their top pitching prospects and probably another young player and lesser prospects.
Haven’t heard anything new on the matter, but didn’t expect to just yet. But I do think the Braves are, or will, explore the opportunity to acquire Peavy, a bonafide ace who’s in the prime of his career and signed to a reasonable contract for a pitcher of his ilk.
Peavy will make $11 million in 2009, $15 million in 2010, $16 million in 2011 and $17 million in 2012. There’s also a $22-million team option for 2013, with a $4 million buyout. That’s a total of $63 mill he’s owed, including the buyout.
For him to agree to waive that no-trade to go to the Yankees, you can bet your butt that Peavy and his agent would demand at least that the Yankees pick up the $22 million option, assuring the right-hander of $81 mill over five seasons.
But I think there’d be a reasonable chance he’d come to the Braves without making them guarantee the option year. I could be wrong, but that’s my take on the situation, just from afar and from what I’ve heard of those who know Peavy and understand how much he likes being back home.
For a Braves team with what’s believed to be more than $40 mill to spend on additions for 2009, Peavy’s backloaded contract could work because it would also allow them to sign or trade for another starting pitcher and outfielder, and bring back one or more from the veteran group that includes Mike Hampton and the two veterans uncertain about comebacks from surgeries, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine.
Peavy averaged 13 wins over six full seasons with mostly mediocre San Diego teams. He posted sub-2.90 ERA in four of the past five seasons.
Alright, time to post this. We’ve got Game 2 of the NLCS starting as I type.
A tune to take us out, one of my favorites from a guy who’s a legend himself:
”UNKNOWN LEGEND” by Neil Young
She used to work in a diner
Never saw a woman look finer
I used to order just to watch her float across the floor
She grew up in a small town
Never put her roots down
Daddy always kept movin’, so she did too.
Somewhere on a desert highway
She rides a Harley-Davidson
Her long blonde hair flyin’ in the wind
She’s been runnin’ half her life
The chrome and steel she rides
Collidin’ with the very air she breathes
The air she breathes.
You know it ain’t easy
You got to hold on
She was an unknown legend in her time
Now she’s dressin’ two kids
Lookin’ for a magic kiss
She gets the far-away look in her eyes.
Somewhere on a desert highway
She rides a Harley-Davidson
Her long blonde hair flyin’ in the wind
She’s been runnin’ half her life
The chrome and steel she rides
Collidin’ with the very air she breathes
The air she breathes.
Permalink | Comments (600) | Post your comment |
Alabama son Peavy to pitch for Braves? It’s possible
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
He’s 27 years old, was a unanimous winner of the 2007 NL Cy Young Award, has averaged 192 innings and 194 strikeouts in six full seasons in the majors, and is under contract through 2011.
I don’t know, but it seems like the only way Jake Peavy could be a more perfect fit for the pitching-hungry Braves would be if he were a native Southerner.
What’s that? He was born in, raised in, and still lives in Alabama?
Well, hell, then what’s the holdup? Get that boy in a Braves uni, stat.
OK, so it’s not going to be that easy. But for all the denizens out there who believe your Braves don’t have a chance of prying Peavy out of San Diego and bringing home this native son — hey, he’s practically that — to pitch in Atlanta, well, don’t be so quick to dimiss the notion.
The Braves are holding organizational meetings this week at Dark Star (aka Lake Buena Vista, Fla.) and you can bet that Peavy’s name is going to be discussed, as in, how serious are the Padres about the possibility of trading him, and what will they want in return?
For a team that’s publicly stated it will use its assets however necessary to fill its primary needs — two starting pitchers and an outfielder with some power — rest assured the Braves will talk about how much of those assets, how many young players and/or prospects, it would take to get Peavy from the Padres.
What do you think, is that something most of you would get behind? I’m guessing most of you would.
Peavy will make $11 million in 2009, $15 million in 2010, $16 million in 2011 and $17 million in 2012. There’s also a big ol’ $22-million team option for 2013, with a $4 million buyout.
For a Braves team with more than $40 mill, perhaps more than $45 mill, to spend on additions for 2009, Peavy’s backloaded contract would work well because it would also allow them to sign or trade for another starting pitcher and outfielder, and bring back whichever ones they can or want to from the pitching group of Mike Hampton and the two still-not-sure-if-they-can-pitch-agains, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine.
The notion of getting an in-his-prime ace like Peavy, who’s averaged 13 wins over six full seasons with mostly mediocre San Diego teams, a guy who posted sub 2.90 ERA in four of the past five seasons, became a legitimate possibility after Padres GM Kevin Towers said last week that no one was untouchable, not even Peavy.
That’s because the Padres have ever-present payroll restrictions and are coming off a wholly disappointing 99-loss season, and Towers said they want to get younger.
Peavy’s plenty young, and they’d much prefer to keep their all-time strikeout leader, but if a team approaches towers with an offer for Peavy that includes several young, inexpensive, potential impact players, he’ll listen.
The Braves have a couple of potential big advantages over, say, the big-market teams in New York. For one, they have more quality pitching depth in their minor league system that they might be willing to part with (GM Frank Wren said last week that the Braves might be able to make a trade using some of that pitching, without trading top prospect Tommy Hanson).
Secondly, and this is a potential deal-maker or breaker: It’s quite possible that Peavy might not approve a trade to a New York team. Folks, the dude plays baseball in San Diego and yet chooses to make his residence in Semmes, Ala.
The season ends and he leaves sun-kissed SoCal to winter with the wife and kids in ‘Bama. So, you think this country boy just might be more inclined to approve a trade to the team he grew up loving, the Braves, than, say, the Yankees?
I’m thinking that’s a good bet.
The Braves lost their ace, Tim Hudson, when the Alabama native and former Auburn standout had Tommy John surgery that will likely sideline Hudson for all but the last month of the 2009 season, and possibly the entire season.
That made it imperative that the Braves this winter find a replacement No. 1 starter to replace Hudson, whose four-year, $47 million contract extension runs through 2009 (there’s a $12 mill option for 2010, with a $1 mill buyout).
Now comes the tantalizing possibility of Peavy, who, by the way, was set to pitch for Auburn before he signed with the Padres out of high school (St. Paul’s Episcopal) in 1999. He was a modest 10-11 in 27 starts this season, but that record is more indicative of the Padres’ anemic run support than anything else.
Peavy had an outstanding 2.85 ERA and a solid 1.180 WHIP (walks-plus-hits per inning pitched) that was right at his career mark. He received just under 3.7 support runs per nine innings pitched, a woeful figure that included eight starts in which the Padres scored one or no runs while he was in the games.
If Peavy is indeed available, the Braves should make a serious attempt to get him, provided they’re comfortable with his health.
When I asked someone in the organization, the response was anything but dismissive of the possibility of making a run at Peavy, if the Padres would deal him.
While they don’t want to mortgage the future by trading away top prospects such as Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Jordan Schafer and Hanson, the Braves have plenty of other prospects, especially pitchers, who might interest Towers enough to make a deal.
They don’t want to give up a pitcher such as Hanson or Kris Medlen, or an outfielder such as Gorkys Hernandez or Schafer, but perhaps the Braves would bite the bullet if that’s what it took to get Peavy, who’s no ordinary ace. Maybe — and I’m just throwing out ideas here — the Padres would be interested in Kelly Johnson, since they’re not certain about their second base position next season and like good OBP guys who can drive balls to the gaps.
(If I’m the Braves, I wouldn’t want to give up Johnson unless absolutely necessary. I really do think he can be one of the best hitting second basemen in baseball next season, and that there’s a good chance he’ll become less streaky.)
If they move a Johnson or another young player off the current team, then the Braves would have another need to fill. But again, Peavy is a special talent. A serious ace. He is one of the eight or 10 bonafide, true “No. 1” pitchers in baseball, a pitcher you hand the ball to and expect to win every time.
He’s got nasty stuff and a hard-nosed demeanor and work ethic. The whole package, if you ask folks who should know, including Don Sutton.
The drawback, or potential red flag: Elbow.
He had an elbow scare in May that sidelined him four weeks, but an MRI showed no ligament damage and Peavy bounced back from that to record 13 quality starts in his last 18 games.
In seven of his 13 starts after July 4, he allowed one or no runs in seven or more innings, including an Aug. 31 start against Colorado in which he threw eight scoreless innings of five-hit ball with 13 strikeouts and two walks.
He only made two starts in September, missing some time to witness the birth of his third child. The Padres were cautious bringing him back from that slowly, since they were out of postseason contention and because of the earlier elbow problems.
Peavy also missed six weeks for a strained flexor tendon in that forearm/elbow in 2004, when he went 15-6 with a 2.27 ERA in 27 starts with 177 strikeouts in 163-1/3 innings.
In each of the next three seasons, he recorded over 200 innings and at least 215 strikeouts, including 223-1/3 innings with a league-high 240 strikeouts in 2007, when he finished 19-6 with a 2.54 ERA and won the Cy Young Award.
I went back to early in the 2006 season to find where Peavy really struggled for any significant period. Then I checked his stats since then, to compare him with some other of the game’s elite aces.
Beginning with July 26, 2006, Jake Peavy is 36-20 with a 2.63 ERA, with a .215 opponents’ average, 490 strikeouts and 154 walks in 474-1/3 innings.
In that same period, Brandon Webb is 44-22 with a 3.36 ERA, with a .239 opponents’ average, 436 strikeouts and 160 walks in 535-2/3 innings.
In that same period, Johan Santana is 38-21 with a 2.82 ERA, with a .224 opponents’ average, 528 strikeouts and 134 walks in 536 innings.
In that same period, CC Sabathia is 41-22 with a 2.91 ERA, with a .247 opponents’ average, 540 strikeouts and 113 walks in 585-1/3 innings.
CC is an absolute horse, a pitcher any team would love at the top of its rotation. But speculation is that his stretch-drive performance with the Brewers could net him a free-agent contract worth at least $100 million over the next five years, and perhaps $150 mill over the next seven years.
Peavy is owed $59 million over the next four seasons, and $63 million when the buyout of his 2012 salary is included. He’s not as durable as those four listed above, and there is some concern that his pitching mechanics will lead to more serious elbow problems.
But if the Braves want a seriously dominant ace, at a relatively affordable price, they’d best kick the tires of the Southern boy. If the Padres are seriously considering trading him, then the Braves should seriously consider making it happen. Look over his recent MRI with a fine-tooth comb. Three times.
Then, if it comes to that, if a trade can be worked out, have him undergo another MRI with Braves doctors. Have James Andrews look that baby over (Doc Andrews should be giving the Braves a bulk discount this year anyway, right?)
The answer to the Braves’ biggest pitching problem could come from not far away. A serious, dominating, intimidating ace - and from just up the road.
Diversions: The first folks who get the new CDs by Lucinda Williams (Little Honey) and The Pretenders (Break Up the Concrete, both to be released Tuesday, Sept. 7, should provide us with reviews. I saw four-star reviews of each in the new Rolling Stone. One review said it’s the best that Chrissie Hynde and her revamped band have produced in quite a while, and Lucinda’s album supposedly sounds a lot more like her seminal Car Wheels On a Gravel Road than her most recent stuff. Chrissie and Lucinda can rule my world anytime…. RS also gave 4-1/2 stars to Vol. 8 of Bob Dylan’s Bootleg Series, also out Tuesday…. It went unnoticed by the baseball world, but Hank Aaron and Barry Bonds were at the same party on Saturday, and it was right here in Atlanta. Yes, according to the AJC’s story by Richard Eldredge, the past (and always) legendary home-run king and Sir Cranium were among guests at an event to celebrate the opening of Atlanta director Tyler Perry’s new movie studio in the southwest part of the city. Oprah Winfrey, Will Smith and Louis Gossett Jr., were among the many other distinguished invited guests. Your Crusading Everyman was not…. I did, however, attend a pretty cool event at Road Atlanta that day. Petit Le Mans. Anyone who says race-car drivers aren’t athletes should consider what those guys do on that winding course in that 1,000-mile or 10-hour race….. Here’s an out-of-the-mainstream rock album I’ll strongly recommend: Self-titled CD by the L.A.-based band Low Vs Diamond. Reminds me of Interpol and Echo and the Bunnymen.
A tune to close: Saw this band Friday at The Earl. ‘Twas a stellar rock show. When they began to play this angry, roiling, perfect blast of tuneage, the place about exploded:
“THE RAT” by The Walkmen
You’ve got a nerve to be asking a favor
You’ve got a nerve to be calling my number
I know we’ve been through this before
Can’t you hear me, I’m calling out your name?
Can’t you see me, I’m pounding on your door?
You’ve got a nerve to be asking a favor
You’ve got a nerve to be calling my number
Can’t you hear me, I’m bleeding on the wall?
Can’t you see me, I’m pounding on your door?
Can’t you hear me when I’m calling out your name?
When I used to go out, I would know everyone that I saw
Now I go out alone if I go out at all
When I used to go out I’d know everyone I saw
Now I go out alone if I go out at all
When I used to go out I’d know everyone I saw
Now I go out alone if I go out at all
You’ve got a nerve to be asking a favor
You’ve got a nerve to be calling my number
I’m sure we’ve been through this before
Can’t you hear me, I’m beating on your wall?
Can’t you see me, I’m pounding on your door?
Permalink | Comments (663) | Post your comment |
Looking at this Braves winter and beyond
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Settling into the offseason, which began earlier for the Bravos that it once did. Again. But really, it’s been enough years (three) of them not making the postseason that it no longer feels strange seeing them as one of the 22 teams on the outside looking in, rather than the eight inside, where everybody wants to be.
Anyway, the Braves are now scattered to the corners of North and South America and the Caribbean, done with baseball for a while (until Fall League or Winter League assignments, for some).
And while I’d prefer covering a team immersed in the playoffs at this point, after a few years of no postseason, at least it’s allowed me to catch up on a bunch of great returning TV series and a couple of new ones, including Sons of Anarchy. Love that show, though they shouldn’t have all the dudes in SOA riding with those windshields on their bikes. The Mayans’ bikes looked much badder in the last episode, no windshields, just a lot of ape-hanger bars on those Harleys.
Oh, and The Shield remains one of my favorite shows. Outstanding. Tense and gritty as ever. But can anyone seriously keep up with the feud between the Mexicans and Salvadorans that began at the end of last season and has been the focus of this season?
Damn, I find myself pausing the DVR sometimes just to try to think it through. I feel almost senile watching it, at times. Oh, well, we all just want to see what happens to Vick and Shane anyway, right?
Now, where were we?
I said on the radio yesterday that the Braves are still regarded as one of the elite major league franchises by most people who’ve been in or around the game for a while. They really are, though I know that might seem hard to believe for some frustrated fans.
But I added this, and I really believe it: They’d better get this thing turned around in the next year or two or the Braves’ brand, as the suits call it, will lose a lot of its cache quickly. That process already began, what with them not being on TBS nightly like they were back in the day, and now missing the playoffs once, twice, three times straight.
The memory of the Big Three pitchers and the run of divisional dominance and decade-and-a-half of regular-season excellence … all of that will start to slip from the national sports conscience. It already has, to a degree. No question.
But it’s still only three years. This isn’t like the Miami Dolphins or New York Knicks going from perennial contenders to laughingstocks. It’s a long way from that. But if they don’t put the brakes on this and get it turned around….
Well, enough doomsday scenarios. GM Frank Wren and the rest of the front office believes the Braves can be contenders next year by filling a few big needs, if they fill them properly. There are plenty, perhaps a majority, of pundits and fans who think otherwise, that the Braves have a two- or three-year rebuilding project before they get back to the postseason.
Me, I feel like Wren could be right — but only if the Braves do it right, if they get two legit proven starting pitchers, whether that’s sign reliable Derek Lowe to be an ace and trade for a potential stellar No. 2 starter like a Matt Cain (15-30 the past two seasons with the Giants, but pitched well enough to legitimately have been 30-15 in that span with good run support on a good team).
Or trade for a big-time No. 1 starter, a guy that perhaps we don’t even know right now will be on the trade block. Yes, I’m talking about a Roy Oswalt type of guy. You never know. The Braves traded for Tim Hudson in the prime of his career, didn’t they? And they have more than enough payroll room to take on Oswalt’s salary, and enough prospects and/or a young, cheap player to trade to a Houston team that might be looking toward the future.
Then there are the Marlins. With 17 players eligible for arbitration, keep an eye on Fredi Gonzalez’s team. I know they’d prefer to trade outside the division, but the Marlins might find irresistible a Braves offer for one of their talented young pitchers, or perhaps left fielder Josh Willingham (if the Braves didn’t spend any more than his salary in LF, they could have more to spend on pitching, starting or otherwise).
Again, I’m just tossing stuff out there, because chances are at least one of the moves the Braves make will be one that’s from out of left field.
Speaking of left field, they’ve got to get a guy with at least 25-30 homer potential next season, to hit fourth behind Chipper on a daily basis (or at least as daily a basis as Chipper’s in there, probably a 120-135 days. Makes it even more important to have that big bat when Chipper’s not in there, which they didn’t have this year once they traded Teixeira. And Teixeira didn’t hit much during April and May to begin with.)
OK, but we’ve got a lot of time to talk about this stuff. Moves generally don’t start happening until after the postseason, save for some players re-upping with current teams or some scattered trade rumors.
Hot Stove is going to be stoked this winter, folks. No doubt about that. Braves are going to be in the middle of a lot of rumors, some of them legit.
Future does look promising: Talking to Wren on Monday, he reiterated what he’s said before about the depth and quality in the minor league system and how the Braves need to fill some needs now through free agency or trades until they start to get another steady flow of impact-type players from their system.
He acknowledged they haven’t produced any of their own impact-type players from the organization since the crop of “Baby Braves” came up in 2005 (and, we might add, most of those guys, with the exception of Brian McCann, haven’t enjoyed the sort of career ascendance the Braves hoped they would.)
Most of the Braves’ top minor-league talent is still a year or more away, though a couple of them — CF Jordan Schafer, pitcher Tommy Hanson perhaps? — could be here sooner.
But Wren’s not just blowing smoke up the blog when he says the Braves have a lot of talent in their system at the Double-A level and lower.
Perusing the new issue of Baseball America that just arrived at offseason Braves/MIB Blog Headquarters (aka my house in Atlanta), a few familiar names jumped out from the magazine’s list of Top-20 prospects in each minor league.
A few of these guys could be in the Braves’ lineup, Schafer as soon as next season, OF Jason Heyward, 1B Freddie Freeman by 2011, OF Gorkys Hernandez maybe 2011 (it’s not difficult to imagine a Braves of Schafer, Heyward and Hernandez.
Anyway, here are Braves who made the BA lists:
TRIPLE-A: Charlie Morton was the No. 9 prospect in the International League, where he didn’t up a home run in 12 starts before he was promoted to the majors. Folks, don’t let the impression you got of Morton with Atlanta spoil it for you; the kid is extremely talented, but that shoulder-blade thing sapped him of his velocity up here and he wasn’t the same pitcher I saw last fall in Arizona or that minor league opponents saw this early summer. We saw him throw about 91-93 in the majors most of the time, about 4-5 mph off his best.
He’ll be back next year on top of his game, I have a feeling. Needs to strengthen the shoulder and do the type of specific workouts he hasn’t done in the past, to withstand the rigors of pitching many innings at a high level.
OF Brandon Jones was the No. 17 prospect in the International League. Not sure what to make of his future, since he’s not talked about by the Braves the way he was in the past and had a underwhelming year in the minors. Wren said Monday that the nagging shoulder injury that brought Jones home early from the Mexican Winter League probably robbed him of some power all season.
We’ll see. Maybe he was saying that for the benefit of other teams that might be interested in trading for him, or maybe it’s just the truth. We’ll see.
By the way, check out the names from BA’s top 10 International League prospects list five years ago: 1. Jose Reyes, 2. Justin Morneau, 3. Victor Martinez, 4. Chase Utley, 5. Freddy Sanchez, 6. Adam LaRoche, 7. Brandon Claussen, 8. Cliff Lee, 9. Jeremy Guthrie, 10. Coco Crisp.
DOUBLE-A: Tommy Hanson came in at No. 9 on the Southern League list, despite only being promoted to the league from high-A Myrtle Beach in June and struggling initially to make the adjustment. But man, did he ever make it.
Beginning with his 14-strikeout no-hitter June 25 vs. Birmingham, Hanson went on a 5-1, 1.41 ERA tear in which he recorded 79 strikeouts in 57 innings. This after starting out the season at Myrtle by going 3-1 with an 0.90 ERA in seven starts, with 49 strikeouts (11 walks) in 40 innings.
For the season, Hanson led full-season minor league pitchers with a 2.41 ERA and 163 strikeouts. Dude throws a 91-94 mph fastball with excellent life, the scouts say, and he honed a devastating slider that he first broke out for game action in that no-hitter.
CF Jordan Schafer slipped to No. 13 prospect in the Southern League after entering the season as the Braves’ No. 1-rated prospect and heir apparent to Mark Kotsay in CF. That’s what a 50-game early season suspension for suspected HGH use will do for you.
It set him back, but Schafer still finished the season hitting .269 with a .378 OBP and .471 slugging, and a strong last two months upped his totals 18 doubles, 10 homers and 12 stolen bases in 297 at-bats. I talked to Mississipi manager Phil Wellman about Schafer when Wellman was up with Atlanta in September, and he said the kid really impressed him in the last two months of the season, after trying too hard initially to make up for the lost 50 games.
Here’s what Frank Wren said Monday about him: “The last two months of the season put him back in a top prospect position. Put it this way: He’s better than most of the competitors in the league he played in… He’s in the group of those who will be challenging for a job [with Atlanta in spring training]. Whether he’s in the final mix, I don’t know yet. But he’s put himself back in that position.”
Me, personally? If I had to guess, I’d say Schafer is going to be in center field on opening day. There, I said it.
By the way, BA’s top 10 list of Southern League prospects in 2003 included: Miguel Cabrera, J.J. Hardy and Dan Haren, among others.
High CLASS-A: 20-year-old CF Gorkys Hernandez was one of the youngest players in the Carolina League, and one of the best. He was rated the No. 3 prospect in a league in which 22-year-old former Georgia Tech catcher Matt Wieters was No. 1 (Wieters is also BA’s Minor League Player of the Year for all levels, and the cover boy on the issue before this one of the so-called Bible of the Sport).
The little synopsis of Hernandez said he was the best defensive OF in the league and that his overall skills rated second only to Wieters’. The description of Hernandez ended: “A five-tool athlete with above-average speed that translates equally well the outfield and basepaths, Hernandez projects as a big-league leadoff hitter with 40-steal potential.”
Don’t know about five tools (he’s not a power hitter), but four tools should certainly be enough to establish him as a Braves cornerstone-type player in a few years, if they don’t trade him before then.
Myrtle Beach SS Brandon Hicks was rated the No. 13 prospect in the Southern League.
Low CLASS-A: Big Jason Heyward came in at No. 2 on the lists of South Atlantic League prospects, with Rome roommate Freddie Freeman at No. 10. Heyward hit .323 (third in the league) with a .388 OBP (fourth in the league), and the Henry County High graduate had 27 doubles, six triples, 11 homers, 15 steals and 52 RBI. The 19-year-old was the top-rated position-player prospect in the league, with Giants pitcher Madison Bumgarner rated as the No. 1 overall prospect in the league.
“Scouts love Heyward’s 6-foot-5, 220-pound frame,” BA wrote. “With his sweet lefthanded swing that projects to produce significant power numbers, he attracts comparisons to a young Dave Parker.” (Personally, I think he looks very similar to a youth Derrek Lee. I was covering the Marlins when they got D-Lee from San Diego, and his long limbs, narrow waist and V-shaped back back then are what Heyward looked like when I saw him last spring. D-Lee filled out to about 240 pounds.)
(By the way, did you guys happen to know that Heyward’s parents both went to Dartmouth? Well, you do now.)
Freeman had a the breakthrough year for the Braves, shooting up their prospects chart with his .316/.378/.521 with 33 doubles, seven triples, 18 homers and 95 RBI. Like Heyward, he doesn’t strike out much. Great plate discipline. And Freeman is regarded as a very good defensive first baseman, in addition to the impressive hitting.
Also on the top 20 South Atlantic League list from the Rome team were a couple of the Braves’ top pitching prospects, 13. Jeff Rohrbaugh and 14. Jeff Locke, and outfielder Cody Johnson at No. 20.
Oh, and if you want to see an interesting prospect list, look at the 2003 BA top 10 from the South Atlantic League: 1. B.J. Upton, 2. Scott Kazmir, 3. Cole Hamels, 4. Jeff Francoeur, 5. Jeremy Hermida, 6. Hanley Ramirez (are you kidding me? No. 6?), 7. Fausto Carmona, 8. Merkin Valdez, 9. Scott Olson, 10. Mike Hinckley.
OK, I’m gonna leave it at that, not get into the Rookie League lists and all. It’s getting late.
Diversions: Rewarded myself with an end-of-season CD buying binge this week. In one day picked up a haul that included: The mighty Otis Redding’s reissued Live In London & Paris; Okkervil River’s The Stand Ins (I like it, but not quite as much as their last two); Teddy Thompson’s A Piece of What You Need (Richard Thompson’s son has become quite a performer in his own right); Gentleman Jesse’s self-titled debut CD (folks, I can’t recommend this brilliant recording from an Atlanta band high enough for any of you who like, say, early Joe Jackson or Nick Lowe, or just great low-fi rock with pop hooks and a punk ‘tude); Cold War Kids’ Loyalty to Loyalty (I like it a lot, but not as much as their great debut CD, which everyone should have); Creedence Clearwater Revival’s Green River (remastered just-released 40th anniversary edition of a classic); Carrie Rodriguez’ She Ain’t Me (if you’ve never heard of her, you should remember the name - it’s terrific); Tom Morello: The Nightwatchman’s The Fabled City (even better than his solo debut, this one’s political/protest rock revved up a bit and produced by Atlanta’s own producer-to-the-stars Brendan O’Brien; Freedy Johnson’s The Trouble Tree (1990 debut by the Kansas troubadour); Uncle Tupelo’s Still Feel Gone (remastered version of their seminal second album); The Rosebuds’ Night of the Furies (love the Rosebuds from N.C., one of the most underrated rock bands anywhere), and Elvis Costello’s Imperial Bedroom (the two-disc, expanded version of one of his must-have masterworks, which I’ve now bought in five or six different forms, from LP and cassette to CD, to expanded single-disc CD, to this even-more-expanded opus. I’m a sucker, but it’s terrific.)
OK, a tune to wrap it up. This song has always done it for me, but sometimes more than others. As I get older, more than ever. If you don’t know or have a “Martha,” I bet you will. Met mine in Fort Lauderdale. She lived in Sausalito, Calif., last time I spoke with her. My ex-wife was absolutely convinced I stayed in contact with this girl in the years when I never did. Dammit.
”MARTHA” by Tom Waits
Operator, number, please:
it’s been so many years
Will she remember my old voice
while I fight the tears?
Hello, hello there, is this Martha?
this is old Tom Frost,
And I am calling long distance,
don’t worry ‘bout the cost.
‘Cause it’s been forty years or more,
now Martha please recall,
Meet me out for coffee,
where we’ll talk about it all.
And those were the days of roses,
poetry and prose and Martha
all I had was you and all you had was me.
There was no tomorrows,
we’d packed away our sorrows
And we saved them for a rainy day.
And I feel so much older now,
and you’re much older too,
How’s your husband?
and how’s the kids?
you know that I got married too?
Lucky that you found someone
to make you feel secure,
‘Cause we were all so young and foolish,
now we are mature.
And those were the days of roses,
poetry and prose and Martha
all I had was you and all you had was me.
There was no tomorrows,
we’d packed away our sorrows
And we saved them for a rainy day.
And I was always so impulsive,
I guess that I still am,
And all that really mattered then
was that I was a man.
I guess that our being together
was never meant to be.
And Martha, Martha,
I love you can’t you see?
And those were the days of roses,
poetry and prose and Martha
all I had was you and all you had was me.
There was no tomorrows,
we’d packed away our sorrows
And we saved them for a rainy day.
And I remember quiet evenings
trembling close to you…
Services »
