AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2008 > October > 19 > Entry
DEL.ICIO.USPeavy waits, Beckett wins, Joba detoxes
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
No doubt, TBS had a bad Saturday with its nightmare technical glitch that caused us to miss most of the first inning of ALCS Game 6. And yes, we at AJC.com had a bad Saturday with technical problems that knocked this blog out, coincidentally just after the TBS glitch, and kept it down much longer than TBS was away from the game.
But as bad a day as it was for TBS and for us, it was worse for New York Yankees officials. Yes, the Yankees.
Not only did their arch rival Red Sox further solidify themselves as the clutch team of the early 21 century, coming back from a 7-0 seventh-inning deficit in Game 5 to force Game 6 (which Boston won Saturday), but the Yankees also learned the young pitcher the Yanks are grooming as an ace, Joba Chamberlain, was arrested at 1 a.m. Saturday in Nebraska for DUI, speeding, and open container.
So, while Boston ace Josh Beckett was showing Tampa Bay’s so-called “Big Game” James Shield what it meant to truly be a big-game pitcher, Chamberlain was holed up in something called Cornhusker Place Detox in Lincoln, Neb., which sounds more like a place ‘Husker football fans might have been sent during the Bill Callahan coaching tenure.
The horror.
By the way, I couldn’t help but wonder if Brian Cashman might have made an early morning phone call to San Diego on Saturday, before the news broke. Imagine Padres GM Kevin Towers being awakened, fumbling for his phone at 7 a.m. Pacific time.
The call might have gone like this:
“Hello,” Towers answers with raspy, sleepy voice.
“Good morning, Kevin,” says the caller. “This is Brian. Cashman. Sorry to wake you, but I knew you’d probably be up soon and going for a jog on the beach before settling in to watch college football games. So I didn’t want to bother you later.
“Anyway, look. I’ve been thinking about our chat last week about Jake. And you know what, that proposal you had involving Joba Chamberlain and prospects might not have been as unfair as I indicated at the time. I mean, we really love Joba and there’s almost no way we’d trade him. But….”
OK, that was my blog introduction on a day when we don’t have any new developments to report in the matter that hangs over Braves Nation: Peavy. Jake Peavy. Jake Freakin’ Peavy.
To say that Braves fans want GM Frank Wren to trade for Peavy, to bring the San Diego ace from Alabama back “home” to Atlanta and have him start the next four (at least) Opening Days for the Braves, would be a gigantic understatement.
Akin to saying Bear Bryant was revered in ‘Bama. Something like that.
You don’t believe me? Look at the poll on our AJC.com Braves page. The question: Should the Braves acquire Jake Peavy from the Padres? The answer choices are: “Yes,” “No,” or “Someone else.”
(OK, so the choices are quite a bit simpler than the execution and don’t take into account what the cost might be for said acquisition, and yes, that last option, “someone else,” seems a bit awkward for an answer to the question “Should the Braves acquire Jake Peavy from the Padres. But you know what it meant, so stop picking nits and go with it.)
(By the way, just so folks here know, I don’t write the poll questions. Occasionally in the past, they asked me submit a poll question, but the last time I did was months ago. Not saying the polls are good, bad or in-between, just saying I don’t write them, so that some of you might stop asking me.)
Anyway, back to this particular poll question (and by the way, say what you will, but our Braves polls generally get pretty big damn responses).
As of 12:25 p.m. Sunday, there were 5782 “yes” votes, 368 “no” votes, and 154 “someone else” votes. Folks, that’s 91.7 percent “yes” responses. Wow.
Then it’s decided. Frank Wren, get it done or let down roughly nine out of 10 Brave fans. (Man, that’s the kind of pressure that could end up putting a person in Cornhusker Place Detox.)
But seriously, I’m guessing it’s about 95-percent chance the Padres trade Peavy before this year’s July 31 deadline, and about 90 percent that it’s done this winter. OK, make that 92-percent chance it’s done this winter.
And I’ll go with — now this is really just speculating here — 65-percent chance it’s done before the winter meetings Dec. 8-11 in Las Vegas.
Speaking of Vegas, I’d say odds that the Braves get Peavy are at least as good as they are for any other team, and probably better. I believe that because of the “hometown” thing.
Atlanta ain’t Mobile, but it’s sure a hell of a lot closer, literally and figuratively, than New York is. Or St. Louis, for that matter. I do think the Cardinals have the second-best chance of getting him. Houston would, because Peavy would like to pitch alongside his hunting buddy Roy Oswalt and give the Astros the best 1-2 pitching tandem in all of baseball. Yes, all of baseball.
But do you really think the Astros are going to both part with the prospects and pay the $63 mill that Peavy’s owed over the next four years (or $81 mill for five years), when they already owe Oswalt a guaranteed $45 million over the next three seasons, plus either a $16 mill option in 2012 or $2 mill buyout?
Folks, they are the Astros, not the Yankees. I just can’t see them tying up $110 million in two starting pitchers over the next four seasons, both of whom have had at least some arm concerns, though neither has had surgery.
(And speaking of that, in regards to the concerns some have raised on the blog about Peavy’s elbow issues: People, in this day and age, seriously, how many pitchers 25 and older haven’t had arm problems, or at least some concerns? Goes with the territory.)
Again, most of you are right in that the Braves are undoubtedly going to have to have to give up multiple talented players/prospects to get Peavy. You just don’t get an in-his-prime ace, one of the best 10 in the game (and many in baseball would say he’s in the top five) and a guy who’s under a reasonable contract for the next four or five years, without giving up talent in return.
But I also think the Braves can get it done without giving up either of the “untouchables,” OF Jason Heyward or 17-year-old pitcher Julio Teheran, and probably without giving up future Braves first baseman Freddie Freeman.
Gan they do it without giving up Tommy Hanson, a potential Braves starter in 2008? That, I don’t know. Maybe they could pull it off with a package that includes two of the Braves’ other best five or so pitching prospects (they have a handful of real good ones), but that might be only if the Padres get Yunel Escobar as the centerpiece of that deal.
I don’t know if the Braves will do that. I’ll be they’re a little more willing amenable to an Escobar trade now than a year ago. Not to throw the shortstop under the bus, but he showed some aspects of his temper, and some borderline surliness, this season that appeared to be a regression to his minor-league attitudinal problems, at least that’s the way I interpreted it.
Personally, I think Yunel is an extremely talented player and a guy who’s great to have on the team and in the clubhouse when things are going well. But he seems to have a bit of an nasty edge that shows in the face of adversity, both on the field when things don’t go his or his team’s way, and in the clubhouse when he’s dealing with injuries or other unpleasantness that goes with the business of baseball.
But I know the Braves still see him as a potential All-Star shortstop, a guy with a ton of talent. And that cannon of an arm … well, you don’t find many of those in the game. I’ve seen three — Shawon Dunston, Rafael Furcal, and Yunel. The Braves not absolutely not trying to move Escobar. They’d much prefer to keep him.
However, Kevin Towers mentioned that the Padres, in a deal for Peavy, would probably be looking for a couple of major-league ready young pitchers and, after that, probably a middle infielder.
Does Kris Medlen fit the bill of near major-league ready? Maybe so, since he’s been mentioned as a possible Braves starter at some point in 2009. And how about Stephen Marek, the hard-throwing reliever the Braves got from the Angels as the overlooked-but-talented other piece in the Tex/Kotchman trade? No one would be surprised if he won a spot in the Braves’ bullpen in 2009.
So how ‘bout Medlen, Marek and Escobar for Peavy? The Padres would be getting a big upgrade at shortstop, with Escobar replacing Khalil Greene. I should say, I only think the Braves would do such a deal involving Escobar if they were either getting Greene along with Peavy, or had another shortstop possibility lined up in another trade. Greene would seem more likely in that scenario.
Or maybe the Padres like Braves 2B Kelly Johnson to have him be the middle infielder Towers seeks along with two young pitchers. I haven’t heard that yet, haven’t heard whether the Padres see Yunel or Kelly as a sought-after target.
These things should start to firm up in the next week or weeks, perhaps even sooner. You never know when it comes to Towers. He might try to play one team off another and drive up the price for Peavy, or he might decide that he’d like to move his guy now before the free-agent aces hit the market.
But he surely also knows the Braves would much prefer to trade for Peavy than try to fill their No. 1-starter need with a free agent.
Diversions: Tonight (Sunday) is one of those nights when technology is our friend. Specifically, the DVR and/or OnDemand television. Because we’ve got Game 7 of the ALCS, a riveting episode of the outstanding show Mad Men on AMC, plus another episode in what’s become a solid season (after a slow start) of Entourage. Speaking of Mad Men, the season’s ending and I’m not ready to let go of bodacious Joan Holloway. Oh my, the best thing to look at on TV…. Saw a really good movie on DVD this week, called Boy A. About a kid who goes to jail as adolescent for his part in the murder of a young girl, then is paroled years later, in his early 20s, and takes a new name and job in another part of the country. Eventually word gets out about his past, and, well, it’s a wrenching story, man. Fine moviemaking.
Musically speaking…. New Hank III album (called “Damn Right, Rebel Proud”) coming out Tuesday. Anybody heard anything from it yet? Can do so here: http://www.curb.com/artists/hw3/amazonpromo_rebelproud/
Listening a lot to the new Okkervil River CD “The Stage Names,” which isn’t quite as good as their last one, “The Stand Ins,” or “Black Sheep Boy” before that. But that’s only because those two were grade-A albums. This latest album, I’d give a B-plus. Great band. Speaking of literate, all-hands-on-deck bands, when is Arcade Fire going to release a new CD?
The recently dormant alt-country band Giant Sand is back with a cool CD, “Provisions,” released about a month or so ago. I didn’t even know they were still around until I stumbled upon the CD this past week. It’s typically experimental, trippy, mostly mellow, and fit for, oh, a dive bar in the Mojave desert. But if you’ve heard them before and dug ‘em, you’ll like this one. Got a lot of Calexico in them, but not as accessible. By the way, get the recently released Calexico album if you’ve liked any of their previous stuff. It’s strong.
Can I just say (of course I can) that the world is a better place when two tough women, Chrissie Hynde and Lucinda Williams put out new music in an eight-day span. Love the new CDs by Hynde’s reconfigured Pretenders and the ever-stellar Lucinda….
Oh, and these remastered and expanded Creedence Clearwater Revival CDs well worth the price, even if you have the stuff already. I’ve been playing “Green River” and “Cosmo’s Factory” a lot. What a great band. Americana/Al-country decades before anyone ever came up with those labels. Don at Ella Guru had a few cheaply priced copies of the CCR remasters last week. Don’t know if he still does.
R.I.P. Levi Stubbs, golden-voiced lead singer of the Four Tops. He died Friday.
”LEVI STUBBS’ TEARS” by Billy Bragg
With the money from her accident
She bought herself a mobile home
So at least she could get some enjoyment
Out of being alone
No one could say that she was left up on the shelf
It’s you and me against the World kid she mumbled to herself
When the world falls apart some things stay in place
Levi Stubbs’ tears run down his face
She ran away from home with her mother’s best coat
She was married before she was even entitled to vote
And her husband was one of those blokes
The sort that only laughs at his own jokes
The sort that war takes away
And when there wasn’t a war he left her anyway
Norman Whitfield and Barrett Strong
Are here to make right everything that’s wrong
Holland and Holland and Lamont Dozier. too
Are here to make it all okay with you
One dark night he came home from the sea
And put a hole in her body where no hole should be
It hurt her more to see him walking out the door
And though they stitched her back together they left her heart in pieces on the floor
When the world falls apart some things stay in place
She takes off the Four Tops tape and puts it back in its case
When the world falls apart some things stay in place
Levi Stubbs’ tears run down his face
Comments
Commenting is now closed for this entry.
By keylargo
October 19, 2008 1:52 PM | Link to this
WTBS and the Atlanta Journal - Constitution partners in technical difficulties.
By brian
October 19, 2008 2:01 PM | Link to this
I really hope the braves trade for peavy. DOB, what would the braves do to add another pitcher, would it be through another trade or free agency?
By Mr. Grits
October 19, 2008 2:09 PM | Link to this
Hey DOB, this is off topic (sorry denizens) but were you present for Friday night’s Ryan Adams debacle at Encore Park?
By Efrim
October 19, 2008 2:31 PM | Link to this
blog broken again?
By McFann Ô
October 19, 2008 2:35 PM | Link to this
Thanks for the new Blog, Chief!
By David O'Brien
October 19, 2008 2:55 PM | Link to this
Mr. Grits, no, but I meant to mention that in the blog. Thanks for reminding me.
I had a buddy, a former Braves beat writer, in fact, who told me Friday that he and two other folks were coming to town for the show and that they had an extra ticket if I wanted to go.
I debated, but backed out. Told him thanks, but no thanks, because as much as I dig Ryan Adams’ music, particularly his Whiskeytown stuff but also almost all of his solo stuff, I had seen him twice live and was disappointed both times. Once he was wasted and antagonized the crowd the whole night, pausing forever between songs to reply to guys yelling requests or other crap to him, and the other time was a weird solo show six years ago at Tabernacle where he played acoustic stuff and brought out a turntable and played Madonna records and bad metal and … well, it was a strange show. (If anyone was at the show, maybe they can fill in the blanks here, because I’ve forgotten the details.)
Anyway, I skipped it this time, because I like his music and don’t like it stained repeatedly by bad experiences at his concerts. Low and behold, my buddy sends me an e-mail Friday night explaining to me that my hunch was a good one, because Ryan Adams up and quit after eight songs because he lost his voice. Were you there? is that what happened?
I gotta say, of the hundreds of rock shows/concerts I’ve seen over the years, I can’t recall a marquee performer quitting after eight songs. What was the reaction?
Springsteen, in his 50s, can sing at full voice for three hours a night and never pull the plug early, but half-his-age Ryan Adams can’t make it through a 90-minute or two-hour show (or whatever Ryan was planning to play)?
Hey, plenty of performers cancel shows ahead of time and usually make up the date later. But pull the plug mid-show? Did he offer refunds or announce a makeup date, anything at all?
By True Braves Fan
October 19, 2008 2:56 PM | Link to this
DOB: Excellent analysis of the Peavy situation. Is there any chance the Braves will make an offer to Furcal? Escobar and Furcal would make a great middle infield for the Braves. Expect Chipper to play about 125 games next year, and Prado the rest at 3B. I still have feeling that Casey will be more than adequate at 1B.
By David O'Brien
October 19, 2008 2:57 PM | Link to this
Efrim: No, but thanks for your concern.
By Mitchie-san
October 19, 2008 3:01 PM | Link to this
Whoa….I didnt know what to do there for a minute….Im dazed….Glad its back!
Oh, Go Rays.
By Yars
October 19, 2008 3:06 PM | Link to this
The reality is, we need Peavy. That being said, we need to hang onto KJ. We also don’t need to trade away Escobar in the package. I think Greene is way over-rated & makes too much $$$. If we do get Peavy, maybe it will be through a 3 team trade. Prado is not an everyday 2B. He excels in the utility role. Hell, maybe the Padres could see him as an everyday player. We also need to remind ourselves that we need a decent player backing up Chipper when he misses his usual 20-30 games next season. I think we have a shot at Peavy without having to give up KJ and/or Escobar. now playing: lucid dreams by franz ferdinand.
By David O'Brien
October 19, 2008 3:09 PM | Link to this
Speaking of a “Casey” at first base, isn’t it stunning how quickly Sean Casey fell off the radar in Boston. I had forgotten he was even on their roster until he pinch-hit the other night. Says something about Casey’s stock that the Red Sox went instead with Kotsay, who’d played so little at first base, when Lowell went down and Youkilis moved from 1B to 3B.
Kotsay, by the way, has played very solid defensively over there. Pretty impressive, seeing him make scoops and range right for grounders, etc, when he’d played the position so little.
By David O'Brien
October 19, 2008 3:11 PM | Link to this
Oh, and we just got an explanation for the blog outage. Turns out there is apparently a limit to how many comments a post will hold before it goes kaput. And as we neared 1,000 last night, that point was reached.
By Efrim
October 19, 2008 3:11 PM | Link to this
Go Rays indeed.
By Wayne
October 19, 2008 3:14 PM | Link to this
Should be a great game in Tampa tonight. I am stuck in the Cincinnati airport, trying to get home. Delays so far of 3.5 hrs and counting. Glad the blog is back up!
Escobar/Medlen/Marek I don’t believe would be enough. Might have to add in another lower level arm, with a large upside. If you added Locke and Greene to that deal, I see it as being a big win.
While I love Escobar, I prefer a true ace to a strong armed SS. Greene would be acceptable for a year, which would give us time to evaluate Lillibridge. If he ends up not making the cut, then we could deal with SS in 1 year.
By mbatl
October 19, 2008 3:23 PM | Link to this
Just got reminded of this on another site… what Khalil Greene did in SD in 2007 was pretty remarkable: 27 HR, 44 doubles, 97 RBI, in that vast hitters’ wasteland, is pretty impressive - for a shortstop, no less. And he’s a good defensive SS.
I know the OBP was awful and he didn’t have the same success in ‘08; but if we got him for Escobar as part of the Peavy deal, I’d be okay giving him a shot for a year at SS.
If we could give up Escobar, Marek and Medlen (and maybe some low-level guys) and not give up Hanson, Schafer, Heyward, Hernandez, Rohrbough or Freeman… I’d do that in a second.
I guess I’d rather have Escobar at SS than K. Greene; but I’d rather have Greene at SS and Peavy on the mound every fifth day.
By ForceSaberz
October 19, 2008 3:25 PM | Link to this
DOB, thanks for the update man. It’s exciting that we are one of the top contenders for Peavy’s services next year. Few questions for you that you may have addressed on past blogs but I am a bit out of touch with:
1) Can you just post quick what’s so special about Hanson, Jason Heyward,and Julio Teheran? Sounds like they are some big talent, but their names don’t mean much to me without a discription of what makes them potential studs in the future. How come we would potentially give up Hanson over the other 2 pitchers considering Hanson sounds like the only one ready to pitch next season (when we have a lack of starting pitchers currently)
2)Any ideas, if we get peavy, what a potential starting rotation would be like next year? Besides Peavy and Jurrjens would we have any definate starters?
3) If a Peavy trade worked out would we still be able to pursue Derek Lowe? Or would he be out of our price range?
4) Any thoughts so far on bringing Hampton back? Is that decision based upon whether we need him or not? Considering he is finally seemingly healthy I think he could be a solid back of the end rotation guy that we could get cheap b/c of his past. Make his contract incentive based and it could work well.
5) Off pitching related but who is playing 1B for us in 2009? Is the guy we got from the angels still with us next year?
6) How much longer do you think Chipper will be with us? I love the guy but he just seems to no longer be someone we can rely on to always be there. When does his contract come up?
7) Lastly who is your pick for tonight?? I am rooting hardcore for the rays, but those youngsters have to be rattled after the past 2 games. Like Beckett, I don’t think Lester will have 2 bad games in a row :-(
By ForceSaberz
October 19, 2008 3:25 PM | Link to this
DOB, thanks for the update man. It’s exciting that we are one of the top contenders for Peavy’s services next year. Few questions for you that you may have addressed on past blogs but I am a bit out of touch with:
1) Can you just post quick what’s so special about Hanson, Jason Heyward,and Julio Teheran? Sounds like they are some big talent, but their names don’t mean much to me without a discription of what makes them potential studs in the future. How come we would potentially give up Hanson over the other 2 pitchers considering Hanson sounds like the only one ready to pitch next season (when we have a lack of starting pitchers currently)
2)Any ideas, if we get peavy, what a potential starting rotation would be like next year? Besides Peavy and Jurrjens would we have any definate starters?
3) If a Peavy trade worked out would we still be able to pursue Derek Lowe? Or would he be out of our price range?
4) Any thoughts so far on bringing Hampton back? Is that decision based upon whether we need him or not? Considering he is finally seemingly healthy I think he could be a solid back of the end rotation guy that we could get cheap b/c of his past. Make his contract incentive based and it could work well.
5) Off pitching related but who is playing 1B for us in 2009? Is the guy we got from the angels still with us next year?
6) How much longer do you think Chipper will be with us? I love the guy but he just seems to no longer be someone we can rely on to always be there. When does his contract come up?
7) Lastly who is your pick for tonight?? I am rooting hardcore for the rays, but those youngsters have to be rattled after the past 2 games. Like Beckett, I don’t think Lester will have 2 bad games in a row :-(
By RRR
October 19, 2008 3:30 PM | Link to this
Funny, but I noticed the same things about Yunel this year, and wondered if he was a Braves “type” guy, considering other such cases in the past. Too bad, too. He’s got lot’s of upside, but…. I’ll be honest here about another player, and pardon me if he’s been mentioned as part of a trade, but frankly, the blog gets so darn long, I blanch at reading it, but Frenchy would seemingly fit well as “bait” for Jake, no? After all, Giles is getting a bit long in the tooth. Just a thought.
By McFann Ô
October 19, 2008 3:37 PM | Link to this
DOB—
Wow. I didn’t realize we had that many posts on that Blog!
Come to think of it, the last time a Blog blew up was sometime back in December, and I think that was when we were purposely making it reach 1,000 posts (posting things like “984?”). Shortly after we got there: blewie.
GO RAYS!!!
But please, whoever wins, BEAT THEM FILLIES!!!
By BosnianBaller
October 19, 2008 3:38 PM | Link to this
If we were to trade escobar for greene in that peavy trade then we would need yet another bat.Could Francouer be traded instead.He could play centerfield for the Padres.When you look at it we have 4 SP needs and everybody except Kotchman,Chipper,and Mccann could get moved from our everyday line up.Looks like it’s going to be a busy off-season
By BosnianBaller
October 19, 2008 3:42 PM | Link to this
You guys have to agree with me and say that Yunel was way overhyped coming into the season.Some analysts even said he was the best SS in the N.L. East.He’s still young and could develop into a good player,but I expected more from him this year
By Couch Tater
October 19, 2008 3:49 PM | Link to this
Congrats DOB on the bonus you will receive for getting over 1000 posts. I hope for the Rays sake they win tonight, otherwise the 7-0 lead in game 5 will stick with those guys for a long time. On the other side I,m pulling for Kotsay to get to the World Series. From all I read, he,s a good guy and a team guy.
By NickC
October 19, 2008 3:54 PM | Link to this
ForceSaberz,
Heyward - he has all five tools in abundance and his ceiling is the hall of fame. The reason we got him in the draft was because high school pitchers were so afraid of him they walked him so much and consequently other teams scouts couldn’t get a good report on him. He’ll be in the top 10 prospects in baseball next year and there will be no-one at his level (high A) above him.
Teheran - as a skinny 16 year old he could throw in the mid 90s. Obviously his peak is a long way away, but when his body fills out it will be a frightening pitch.
Hanson - samples of his outings so far include striking out 13 in 5 innings, pitching a no hitter at AA, being perfect through 5 innings in the playoffs, and last night striking out 9 in 4 hitless innings. He has 4 plus pitches and isn’t afraid to throw them.
Besides Peavy and Jurrjens, I’d guess Campillo would have a shot, but if we’re looking to get at least two starters this winter and in addition have the possibility of Glavine/Hampton/Smoltz it’s possible he finds himself in a spring training contest with Reyes and Morton.
Kotchman will be our 1st baseman this year, and probably until Freeman makes it up in 2011.
By David O'Brien
October 19, 2008 3:55 PM | Link to this
BosnianBaller, I don’t agree he was overhyped. I think Escobar is a very talented player who was slowed by injuries for much of the season. And I don’t think a single reputable source called him the best, or even potentially the best, shortstop in the NL East, a division that has three of the best all-around shortstops in baseball (Ramirez, Reyes, Rollins).
By NickC
October 19, 2008 3:58 PM | Link to this
BosnianBaller, find me one article saying Escobar was the best SS in the NL East.
He was against Hanley, who is one of the top 5 players in the game, Rollins, last year’s MVP and Jose Reyes. Not even Escobar would argue that.
By David O'Brien
October 19, 2008 4:00 PM | Link to this
ForceSaberz: Geez, if I get started now I might be able to knock out all those questions before the 8 p.m. ALCS Game 7.
Or I can go enjoy the last couple hours of this beautiful day on the bike and try to get a bit of exercise on the treadmill.
Let me start with your No. 5: “Who is playing 1B for us in 2009? Is the guy we got from the angels still with us next year?”
Uh, yes. That guy, Casey Kotchman, the Braves got from the Angels is still with “us” for next year. He’ll be manning first base, barring unforeseen development.
By scottbravesfan
October 19, 2008 4:00 PM | Link to this
I hope the Rays can get the win tonight and go ahead and win the world series. I know I do not want the Phillies to win the series because their fans are annoying.
By Wayne
October 19, 2008 4:06 PM | Link to this
Mates: I have been thinking about our potential rotation for 2009. So far, no strong lefties on the list. Hampton/Glavine are long shots to be here, and to be successful. JoJo is a huge question mark, although I love his upside.
Could we be looking at adding a FA lefty to the rotation? While I like the idea of Peavy (if), Jurrjens, Hanson, Morton, Campillo and later Hudson, I don’t think it prudent to go without a single lefty in the rotation. If we don’t go out and sign a lefty FA pitcher, then Hampton’s stock might increase?? Not really too many lefties out there.
1.5 more hours to go. Will my battery hold out?
By Taylor S
October 19, 2008 4:07 PM | Link to this
DOB… please put my mind at ease. No way Wren gives up Esco and Hanson right ? Peavy is a good pitcher but if the price gets too high Wren needs to just walk away.
By Corey
October 19, 2008 4:10 PM | Link to this
The Padres want to drop Greene’s salary, so I expect him to be part of any Peavy deal. And, they’re not going to let Peavy go unless they get a top pitching prospect. Look for Escobar, Tommy Hanson & another minor league pitcher for Peavy & Greene.
By Wayne
October 19, 2008 4:13 PM | Link to this
Should be a great game tonight. Too bad I will be on an airplane for the the first hour of it. Thank you Delta!
It’s going to be darned interesting to watch the development of a dozen or so of our prospects this year. We have a long list of very good arms to keep and eye on, not to mention a half dozen or more bats.
By Wayne
October 19, 2008 4:18 PM | Link to this
Forcesaberz: Silence is golden…. duct tape is silver…
You shouldn’t ask more than 1 question at a time (2 if you are feeling lucky)! Did you just win the lottery?
By Wilson
October 19, 2008 4:20 PM | Link to this
Any chance the Braves jump into the Furcal sweepstakes if Escobar is sent to SD?
By Wayne
October 19, 2008 4:20 PM | Link to this
Random I have heard that you are ugly, and your mama dresses you funny! (feel better now?)
:-)
By Wayne
October 19, 2008 4:26 PM | Link to this
Wilson: If Escobar is sent to SD for Peavy, the likelihood that Greene will be included is high. Besides, Furcal doesn’t fit the need of being a starting pitcher or a power hitting outfielder.
Of course the Braves could change their minds, but I am doubtful they will.
Some have suggested moving KJ to the outfield, but that is not a smart move either, as he would not be quite so valuable as an outfielder.
Just my thoughts…
(battery at 32%)
By NickC
October 19, 2008 4:27 PM | Link to this
If we send Escobar for Peavy, we’ll probably get Greene too.
Even if we don’t, we’d have $30m-35m, still needing a good starter and a power bat. I think Furcal would be considered too much of an injury risk and eat into our budget too much for him to be considered. A fully fit Furcal would be ideal though.
By DHD
October 19, 2008 4:37 PM | Link to this
I think we should pick up Lowe and Dunn after we acquire Peavy. With everybody else coming back except for whoever we trade to get Peavy, we should be good to go. Don’t we get insurance money for Hudson next year?
By Couch Tater
October 19, 2008 4:39 PM | Link to this
Wayne- Probability that Peavy will be in our 2009 battery at 50%.
By Lew
October 19, 2008 4:44 PM | Link to this
DOB-Got to agree with you about Yunel. I hardly think a .288 BA with a .366 OBP, 24 2b, 2 3b and 10HR is bad for a young player who missed 16 games with injuries and lost production as a result for a while-kind of hard to generate any pop with a torn up shoulder. n He certainly did NOT have anything approaching a Sophomore Slump to my way of thinking. When healthy, his average was consistently over .300 and he was a most reliable on base guy in the lineup. Hit for more power (as you predicted) than I thought he would, too-especially with the shoulder issues.
Force Saberz-I’d like to expound on the Teheran evaluation a bit. What was said earlier about him was true. He does throw in the mid 90’s, but because he is so young, he is probably a good bet for eventually hitting 100mph. He also has control of four pitches right now (the curve needs a bit of work)-including good breaking pitches and, I believe, a change up. Much, much potential-some think he is another Johan Santana in the making. Hard to tell this early in the game of course, but there are tons of upside to this kid. I wouldn’t let go of him for much of any reason, myself. He seems to be a franchise type pitcher-at least potential -wise.
Also, from what I hear, his head is tied on straight. He comes from a baseball family and realizes the pitfalls attendant on young guys with much $$$$$. I’m betting he will develop without visiting rest homes in Rural Nebraska, like certain Yankee pitchers seem to be.
By Wayne
October 19, 2008 4:46 PM | Link to this
Would the Braves organization be able to reign in a player such as Milton Bradley? Would he be able to stay healthy throughout a full season.
He wants a multi-year contract. If the Braves thought that he would fit into the clubhouse, we could possible sign him for 3-4 years without a no-trade after the first or second year. How much would it cost.
I have read that he is supposed to be a clubhouse cancer. Where is Paul Harvey, when we need “the rest of the story?”
By BosnianBaller
October 19, 2008 4:50 PM | Link to this
Peter Gammons said on the night the braves played the Nationals on opening night on ESPNEWS that Escobar in his opinion was going to be the best SS in the NL East.Also John Kruk predicted that the Braves were going to the series and called Escobar the real deal.I’ll try to find the article.I wouldn’t be making stuff up for no reason.
By Wayne
October 19, 2008 4:50 PM | Link to this
Tater Let’s just hope “The Price is Right!”
By Jake
October 19, 2008 4:50 PM | Link to this
I don’t like to speculate to much about these trade scenarios but i hope we don’t give up Escobar. I would like to see him play a full season for the Braves healthy and see what he could do. I mean Greene is not that much of an upgrade from Lilli at this point. I’m not really ready to give up KJ either but I feel like his potential backup is better than that of Escobar’s. Personally I thought San Diego would want KJ more than Esco simply because he has been up longer and has more power potential. Either way I hope Wren doesn’t give up to much for Peavy. I trust that he won’t.
On another note it will be interesting to see what happens to Manny. I don’t think the Braves will really show that much interest but I don’t think he’ll get as much as what he thinks he will. That’s not to say he won’t get the money but i don’t think he will get the years he is asking for. Boras didn’t have a real great year last year, it will be nice to see what his clients get this offseason.
By Wayne
October 19, 2008 4:55 PM | Link to this
As much as I would love to get Peavy, I would prefer to pass on him if the price includes any of these players: Hanson, Heyward, Teheran, or Freeman.
Others are expendable, including our beloved Escobar, KJ and Francoeur.
By Lew
October 19, 2008 4:57 PM | Link to this
I would not advocate picking up Rafael Furcal. Like with other ex Braves, we tend to look at their better performances and think that’s what we’ll still get years after the played for us. Raffy was good, but……
First of all, I could make a case of his salary being anywhere from $12-15 mil a year. He has missed 150 games the past two years and has back problems, which are notoriously a recurring issue. He also has not been the fielder since leaving that he was in Atlanta, having made 50 errors in 2 1/2 seasons with the Dodgers. He has much wear and tear on him despite being only 31.
Not exactly who we should be looking to sign, IMO-too expensive, too injury prone and too erratic on defense.
By Bobby's Cox
October 19, 2008 5:01 PM | Link to this
I don’t see Yunel or KJ going to San Diego.
The Braves would be foolish to trade Yunel to anyone, let alone San Diego for Green. That would be a downgrade. Green? Are you kidding me? Dude hit .213 this year, and struggles every year to hit over .240.
DOB has mentioned that San Diego is undecided at 2nd, but I’m not so sure they are. Adrian Gonzalez’s brother, Edgar Gonzalez, had a pretty decent year and showed at times he could be a .300 hitter. If San Diego trades Peavy, and replaces Edgar at 2nd, then what motivation will Adrian have to stay in San Diego?
I may be looking to deep into this. Afterall, Adrian is playing in his hometown, and San Diego already had to disrupt brotherly love after dropping Marcus Giles. But I don’t see San Diego taking Johnson if they could choose between he and Yunel, and Yunel shouldn’t even be on the table to trade. After all, the Braves best replacement infielder is a 2nd baseman, although it pains many to admit.
Please Wren, if you pull this off and have to trade a few good prospects like Hanson (which I still think is a mistake), please don’t trade Yunel for Green….Pleaes don’t turn this team into san diego’s weak hitting team.
By Couch Tater
October 19, 2008 5:03 PM | Link to this
Wayne- On another front, I hope you guys will seriously consider Dabo Swinney . I think he is your kind of guy and will prove to be a great head coach.
By THB
October 19, 2008 5:05 PM | Link to this
I guess it comes down to this:
Is it worth giving up Escobar to get Peavy if it saves prospects to go out and get Magglio Ordonez, as long as we get K. Greene back?
Is a team with Peavy, K. Greene, and Magglio better than Peavy and Escobar, but B. Jones in the outfield? I think so, and then we could go out and sign one of O.Perez or Lowe.
By Bobby's Cox
October 19, 2008 5:08 PM | Link to this
Please don’t sign furcal.
Besides being injury prone, Yunel is years ahead of where Furcal was when he started his career, and possibly now as well.
Furcal’s defense, as shown against Philly in the NLCS, is still shaky. Look at their fielding stats.
Furcal
Escobar
Dumping Yunel would be one HUGE mistake, either if they got Green in return, or if they signed Furcal.
By BosnianBaller
October 19, 2008 5:09 PM | Link to this
Here is the Peter Gammons blog from March.I’m not an insider on ESPN,but I remember him talking about Escobar as the best SS in the N.L. East.It could be in the article I got it off ESPN.com
http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?name=gammonspeter&month=3&year=2008&action=login&appRedirect=http%3a%2f%2finsider.espn.go.com%2fespn%2fblog%2findex%3fname%3dgammonspeter%26month%3d3%26year%3d2008
Predicting a Braves-Indians Series
Friday, March 28, 2008 | Print Entry
Predictions have no currency; they are non-fiction, radio-TV shock-jock stuff.
One can spend six weeks roaming spring training and believe that the Braves and Red Sox may well be the best teams in their leagues, but we all know what happens if John Smoltz, Mike Hampton and Chipper Jones get hurt. The Red Sox may be the favorites to win the World Series for the third time in five years (the house postgame show Tuesday opened with “Red Sox Nation’s dreams of a 162-0 season are still alive”), but if anything happens to Josh Beckett or Jason Varitek, they, as Dylan once said, ain’t goin’ nowhere.
Think back to the opening week of 2007. The Diamondbacks and Rockies were coming off the worst records in the National League. By the end of the year, they tied for the most wins in the league, and the very talented Rockies, who had never won more than 83 games, earned their way to the World Series. On Opening Day, the Rays were trying to send Carlos Pena to Durham, but one injury later, he was put on the roster, hit 48 homers and was ninth in the MVP voting.
To continue reading this article you must be an Insider.
By Desibrave
October 19, 2008 5:14 PM | Link to this
DOB How about we trade for Jake Peavy and then lure Oswalt to come join his friend here in ATL? We may have to loose a bunch of our prospects but imagine this rotation for the next decade
* Tim Hudson Jake Peavy Roy Oswalt Jair Jurgens *
We can re live the 90s (this time we can do better by winning World series a few more times)
By Deep Throat
October 19, 2008 5:14 PM | Link to this
“A few NL teams are hardest after Peavy with the Braves the apparent early front-runner. Several executives said the Padres were doing a lot of background work last week on outfielder Jordan Schaefer, a recent top Atlanta prospect whose reputation has taken a huge hit because of an early season HGH-related suspension.”
NY Post
By Wayne
October 19, 2008 5:15 PM | Link to this
Tater I like what I saw of the guy last night. I was NOT impressed by the AD being on the sidelines though. If I were Swinney, I would have handed him the clipboard, and said, “Either coach, or get off the sidelines!”
I loved it when he made that player go back out on the field, and RUN off, not trot off the field.
At least McFann hasn’t come on to rub it in too much!
Flight is leaving in 20 minutes, only 4+ hours late! Wow, what was I complaining about.
In my absence, Go Rays!
By Chopdawg
October 19, 2008 5:15 PM | Link to this
Can’t think of a better SP option than Peavy; who’s our SS, with Yunel gone? Infante & LilBridge battle it out at Disney for the starting job?
CHOP
By Bobby's Cox
October 19, 2008 5:15 PM | Link to this
DOB
I was trying to access the old bloggage to see if you got my post about food recommendations if you go to the GM meetings in Dana Point.
Are you going to the meetings, and if so, did you read my post? I’d be glad to re-post the restaurants again for you.
By Steve from OH
October 19, 2008 5:24 PM | Link to this
Bobby’s Cox:
Amen to that 5:01. I think trading Schafer, Heyward, Freeman, Hanson, Esco or KJ is a mistake.
I mean, think about it. You would trade either our starting SS, who has star potential, and is already a good player, plus a potential #2 starter that will in all likelihood be with the team by the all-star break, and have the Pads asking for a prospect that WILL be starting in CF at some point next season? Gimme a break.
Like I said, offer Gorkys, Flowers, Reyes, Redmond, and Medlen. If they want to negotiate further, tell them Marek or Valdez and Parr are on the table. Rohrbough could also be had, but not in a 6-player deal.
Also, think about this: we’ve got 40MM to spend (roughly), and we’d tie up 6.5MM of it in Greene, when we could pay Yunel 400K? Makes zero sense. An offense without Yunel is a bad one considering we’ve got absolutely no idea who’s going to be manning LF (if we give up a huge bounty for Peavy, how are we going to fill LF, I wonder?), Josh Anderson in center, a right fielder in Jeff Francoeur who could easily repeat this season…and you’d put a .300 OBP guy at SS? Our offense would be Chipper, KellyJ and B-Mac. We’d score five runs all season.
Make an offer for Peavy on our terms. If DePodesta/Towers don’t like it, walk away. We can fill our needs in other places. Don’t get me wrong, I love the thought of having Jake Peavy on the team, but I think it will cost way, way too much to get him. It will blow a hole in the ‘09 Braves and the Braves of the future.
By Josh P.
October 19, 2008 5:24 PM | Link to this
Interesting link Deep Throat
The best part is the reference to the Dodgers considering fielding offers on Russell Martin. Sounds like a classic Colletti move.
By Couch Tater
October 19, 2008 5:35 PM | Link to this
Oh, and Wayne read Milton Bradley’s New York Times blog dated 7/7/08 and the comments thereafter.
By Josh P.
October 19, 2008 5:41 PM | Link to this
I’m ok (but not thrilled) with Atlanta dealing one of Yesco, Hanson, and Schafer, but I’m hoping that Wren won’t succumb to the temptation of including 2 of those players. I would love to get Peavy, no doubt, but creating multiple holes to fill another doesn’t make sense for a mid-tier payroll team, even though Peavy is very affordable considering the caliber pitcher he is.
Coming down to trading one of those three, I would have to go with Schafer. I know it would sting, but he is the most expendable of the 3 imho. Darn your horrible 2008’s Brandon Jones & Brent Small-bridge!
I’m holding out hope that Towers & DePodesta will try to get cute and take like 6 guys from the 2nd level of Brave’s prospects. If we could get him while holding on to our Top-5, I’ll do Wren’s laundry for a year.
By Coach (Skip will be missed)
October 19, 2008 5:41 PM | Link to this
I had heard that the Padres were wanting two pitchers and an everyday center fielder? but not an infielder.
By Philliesuk
October 19, 2008 5:45 PM | Link to this
I understand that I will be in the minority here, but I wouldn’t be that disappointed if Escobar is included in the deal. I certainly wouldn’t be that happy with Khalil Greene, but what about trying to sign back Furcal? Wouldn’t it be nice to have a true lead-off hitter again?
By McFann Ô
October 19, 2008 5:47 PM | Link to this
Ah yeah! Well, how ‘bout them Jackets??
(Sorry, Wayne. Saw your 5:15 and I couldn’t resist!)
Anyway, yer prob’ly on the plane b’now, but have a safe flight!!
4+ hours…yowzah.
By Steve from OH
October 19, 2008 5:50 PM | Link to this
Coach, Ken Rosenthal seems to think the Pads want middle infield help in exchange for Peavy.
He also mentions that rival GMs feel that health is a major concern in a prospective deal for Peavy. Hopefully this drives the price down.
By John J.
October 19, 2008 5:50 PM | Link to this
A prospect is a prospect, maybe great, maybe not. Peavy IS the real deal, right now! Get him if you can!
By Josh P.
October 19, 2008 5:53 PM | Link to this
Coach - there’s been seperate reports, one citing the CF & 2 pitchers you mentioned, and another mentioning middle IF & pitching. Both came from quotes/interviews with Towers, so I guess they want “all of the above”?
By Josh P.
October 19, 2008 5:53 PM | Link to this
Coach - there’s been separate reports, one citing the CF & 2 pitchers you mentioned, and another mentioning middle IF & pitching. Both came from quotes/interviews with Towers, so I guess they want “all of the above”?
By Wilson
October 19, 2008 5:54 PM | Link to this
Wayne, I agree SS is not a priority as is pitching and a power OF, but I figure if we trade Escobar (assuming Greene isn’t returned although I know he likely would be) then SS would become a priority with the other needs. I know I’m probably thinking too much into this, but I’d be OK with sending Escobar to SD, then going after Furcal, and if we can’t get him just to let Lillibridge take over next year. I’m not a big fan of Greene (although I wouldn’t be terribly upset with getting him), and I think Lillibridge can give us as much as Greene would next year but with a bigger upside. I figure with us trading for Peavey and from what I’ve heard of understood Wren want to trade for the OF bat, then that could presumably give us a good bit of money left to chase a pitcher and still afford Furcal. Like I said though, I’m probably over-thinking this a good bit and letting fantasy replace reality in some aspects.
By Efrim
October 19, 2008 5:57 PM | Link to this
I think either Escobar or Hanson has to be in the deal. And I have a feeling that Towers is asking for both. It sounds like CF is no longer something they want, Pitching and middle infield is. Even though you don’t want to, Escobar probably has to be in this deal if we want Peavy. Keeping Hanson is probably going to be difficult as well. If the Braves are intent on not trading their top six prospects(Heyward, Hanson, Teheran, Freeman, Hernandez, Schafer), then you’ll probably have to offer Escobar, and 3-4 prospects from the next tier. Not the six I just mentioned. And the next tier I am talking about aren’t Reyes, Lillibridge and Jones. It’s probably Flowers, Locke, Rohrbough, Medlen, Cody Johnson, Luis Sumoza, and Stephen Marek. 3-4 of those guys. Even then, it might not be enough.
By P-Town Brave
October 19, 2008 6:00 PM | Link to this
Steve from OH
Amen brother…agree w/ you on all points…
If anything our 1 and only position of strength is 2b because of Prado…
I mean we have all these CF, but not a one of them has proven to be consistent…
I just can’t see giving up on Yunel when a lot of us can see what he can become…Look at the Red Sox…their SS position has been a revolving door since they gave up on Hanley too soon and traded him…
And yes, before you say it, I know they got Josh Beckett in that deal.
I agree w/ all of your proposed players in the deal except I may be willing to give them Schafer for a couple players less…
Like I said before, not completely sold on him and actually believe Gorkys may become a better player…
We’ll just have to wait and see…
I’m just happy to be having these conversations because we have so much talent in the minors…its great to know we’ll either be able to make these trades to get better and/or we’ll have the future stars needed to compete.
By mbatl
October 19, 2008 6:05 PM | Link to this
With Greene here (and he’d be here only 1 year), Lillibridge could spend most of the season at Gwinnett learning how to hit a breaking ball, and maybe be ready in 2010. (I’m really not lobbying for Greene, but it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world).
By Steve from OH
October 19, 2008 6:10 PM | Link to this
Efrim, I think you’re overvaluing Peavy a little. I think there’s no doubt that the Padres will ask for that package, but they won’t (or shouldn’) get it. I’d say a realistic deal will look something like:
Esco, Flowers, Reyes, Redmond and Valdez. I’d be ok with that deal.
I’m not saying the initial conversations won’t be something like “You want Peavy, eh? Well, how about Schafer, Escobar, Hanson and Marek?,” to which I hope Frank Wren would reply: “are you drunk?”
By P-Town Brave
October 19, 2008 6:10 PM | Link to this
Wilson
How would you figure that?
Peavy is getting around 11.5M in 09
Furcal will get 12M at the least and most likely more
That leaves us 21.5 to get a bat and another front line pitcher….we would then have to choose which our bigger focus is because I don’t think you’re getting too much w/ that amount left…
There is no sense in trading to create more holes…we already have enough problems…lets try to keep our holes centered to #1 SP, #2 SP, and LF.
By Josh P.
October 19, 2008 6:12 PM | Link to this
Escobar or Hanson…that is a hard decision. If it’s both or no deal the Braves are better off moving on to something else I think. Once again, if I had any faith that Lillibridge could bounce back, I’d feel a lot better about the team dealing Escobar. Whatever the centerpiece may be, the Braves have the players to build a very attractive package with the players you listed, Efrim .
If Escobar goes and we get Greene back, I’m more worried about the payroll implications on 2009 than production. Greene has been fairly decent away from the black hole of Petco Park for most of his career.
By Steve from OH
October 19, 2008 6:17 PM | Link to this
P-Town Brave:
Oh, yes. I would much rather give up Schafer than Escobar, and I would gladly give up Schafer if he was the centerpiece of a deal of reduced size. But not Schafer and Hanson or Schafer and Escobar or Escobar and Hanson together, ya dig?
I mean, I really hate to see Anderson/Blanco manning CF, but they’re ok as a stopgap for Gorkys. The Braves would probably have to rush him (i.e. start him in AA next season), which might be a bad thing for the young kid. But I’m sure they’ll cross that bridge when they get to it.
And I don’t think Lilly and B-Jones have as bad of a trade value as many of you think they do. I mean, it’s not as high as it would have been last offseason, but it’s not terrible, I’d say. I’ll bet a lot of clubs are still interested in B-Jones.
By Bobby's Cox
October 19, 2008 6:20 PM | Link to this
Steve,
Nice to see we’re on the same page again. Well, except for 1 small minor detail. It has to do with Gorkys. Not so sure the Braves should trade that guy, but all the others you posted are fine with me.
Man, the Braves really took it to Detroit in that Renteria trade didn’t they?
Escobar is a superstar. DOB is right that he was slowed by a few injuries this past year, but his stats were still good, and I, for one, like his passion and attitude. When they start winning again, no one will be having more fun than Yunel.
If what others posted about SD are true, that they want 2 pitchers and a ML ready CF, then it looks like it will be Schafer (gulp) and a bunch of negotiating over the pitchers. Could Wren negotiate Parr & Morton, or Morton & Medlen? Maybe even throw in hometowner Campillo (from bordertown Tijuana)? As much as I don’t want to see Schafer play in SD, I could live with that.
By Efrim
October 19, 2008 6:22 PM | Link to this
Steve from OH
I can’t wait to see what the Padres actually do get for this guy. I really think they are getting a lot more than what some people here think. Padres are in the drivers seat here. Tons of teams want this guy.
By Bobby's Cox
October 19, 2008 6:23 PM | Link to this
Oh, yes. I would much rather give up Schafer than Escobar, and I would gladly give up Schafer if he was the centerpiece of a deal of reduced size
Nicely said. Amen.
By McFann Ô
October 19, 2008 6:23 PM | Link to this
From the Cubs’ website First-base coach Matt Sinatro was in charge of the Cubs catchers and had to do a little fine-tuning with the young Soto when he reported in Spring Training. Sinatro noticed that when Soto threw to get a runner, his upper body would lunge out quicker than his feet. They had to tweak his mechanics, especially his footwork, to get him more balanced and in a better position to throw.
Cann we just barrow Mr. Sinatro in Spring Training next year??
I mean uh…Which coach of the Braves is in charge of doing that?
Hmm…that’s 2 Q’s…Guess I’m feeling lucky! (For a change.)
By McFann Ô
October 19, 2008 6:28 PM | Link to this
From that same article I mentioned in my last post …Soto did survive his share of head-on collisions.
Yeah, well…Don’t rub it in, Carrie!
By McFann Ô
October 19, 2008 6:32 PM | Link to this
OK OK, sorry about the rush of posts from this blogger, but I got one more Q, and would really appreciate an answer:
The NL ROY is gonna be announced on Nov. 10. Does anybody know the date that the NL Silver Sluggers are going to be announced?
Thanks!
I gotta take a break, now. My shoulder’s givin’ me heck!
By Mitchie-san
October 19, 2008 6:36 PM | Link to this
Does Infante have any trade value? I have to say he is more proven than Escobar, but Infante has probably shown the best he can do.
Oh, Sundays are usually my days to go catch the Honolulu Sharks play, but I am at work today…so no new videos. Maybe tomorrow since I am off.
By Steve from OH
October 19, 2008 6:40 PM | Link to this
Bobby’s:
Well, the way I see it, it’s either Schafer or Gorkys and Schafer is much closer to ML-ready (and therefore less of a risk), so I’d say I’ll grit my teeth and give up Gorkys. I really don’t like giving up Flowers either, but we’re going to have to give up someone good. Hopefully not too many someones.
Efrim:
I hope they don’t get what you think they’ll get from us. I’m not sure too many teams have as much to give up as us. New York doesn’t. Houston doesn’t. The Dodgers would be selling their farm. Same for St. Louis.
Boston could do the deal, though. I worry about them.
By James Munson
October 19, 2008 6:44 PM | Link to this
Not really keen on the idea of having Greene as the everyday SS next season and beyond. Although, this time next year after an amazing season by Greene, id be eating my words. I know the Pads will want to move him because they arent seein eye to eye on some injury????? Something, but his numbers from 07 were amazing. 08, not so much. The way i see it if they offer Peavy and Greene, we could take a chance and offer Escobar, and 2 prospects, not one of our top-tier guys because they are already getting Escobar, just about to start his second full year. Not only that, we are picking up both Peavy and Greene’s contracts. On the other hand, we could offer a 4-5 prospect deal for just Peavy, including say Hanson and Hernendez/Schaffer plus other lower level prospects. I think we just need to wait and see what the Pads are looking for. Now, depending on what we give up, either Kelly or Escobar, or just prospects, I think that will decide who we go after to play LF. Theres already the feeling out there that we need the bt in LF to be right handed and rightfully so. However, if we were to trade Kelly, I think the Braves will feel less pressure to make that bat righthanded, seeing as how we just lost a lefthanded bat. That opens the door to Dunn, who I prefer over Burrell and Baldeli(Who ppl have broght up on these blogs. And were worried about Furcal being injury prone? This guy is as bad as Hampton. Yes, i know he was highly touted, but lets not take a chance.) With Dunn, yes he hits .240-.250, but he has hit 40 homers in each of the past 4 seasons, thats power and pretty consistant. DOB, any idea who the Braves would look at in a trade? I think the hull wed have to give up for Maggs would be too high, and I have a feeling the Tigers would want a little payback for the Renteria-Jurrjens trade. Maybe Dye???
By Josh P.
October 19, 2008 6:47 PM | Link to this
Steve
Yeah I think Brandon J still holds some value. Not as much as this time last year, but he is still valuable. He hit ok after the break (.750-ish OPS if memory serves) and raked the last month or so. I think his nagging injuries are most likely to blame and hopefully he rebounds if he’s still in the system next season. I don’t understand Lillibridge’s trainwreck of a season at all. He played great D in Atlanta, so there’s that.
By Efrim
October 19, 2008 6:52 PM | Link to this
Steve from OH
Boston could do the deal, though. I worry about them.
Bingo. And do you think Peavy would veto a trade to that team? I know their in the AL, but come on. Red Sox could offer just as much as the Braves. But I doubt they would end up meeting the Padres demands. I mean, do they even need the guy? They could very well be on their way to back to back World Series Championships.
By Josh P.
October 19, 2008 7:00 PM | Link to this
Hmm, I stand somewhat surprised on Small Bridge. He had a decent 2nd-half in 143 ABs at Richmond (relative to his 1st-half, that is). It was mostly fueled by a torrid stretch in July, though. The talent is there but hopefully he can rebound.
As much as I want Peavy, (and to be honest if we give up too much to get him I’ll still be happy we have him), maybe the best scenario for the Braves involves pursuing their big bat on the trade market, and making their pitching acquisitions in Free Agency…Frank Wren is in a pickle!
By Yunel Lillibridge
October 19, 2008 7:04 PM | Link to this
Trading YUNEL ESCOBAR would be a HUGE mistake. Package KJ and/or Lillibridge in the deal, and plug Prado in at 2B. Yunel is a stud in the making, trading him leaves too big a hole at SS, and Khalil Greene is NOT the answer.
Yunel had a solid season in ‘08 and showed flashes of greatness in between injuries. He was starting to drive the ball into the outfield and over the fence more late in the season before he tweaked his hamstring, and there are few in baseball with a better line drive swing and who can take the ball the other way like Escobar (though our own Prado is right up there in this respect as well - even BC said so). Escobar projects to hit for much more power than Prado, however. Escobar will hit 15-20 HR, bat .300, and continue to draw a lot of walks with his pateince and already impressive knowledge of the strike zone in the next couple of years.
Then you look at his defense… yea he made his fair share of errors, but how many balls did he get to behind the bag and DEEP in the hole at SS only to gun the baserunner down at first. His range and arm in the field are already All-Star caliber, and his aforementioned offense I think will reach that level in the very near future.
Lastly, people say his “bad” attitude came back at times on the field and in the clubhouse. It’s not a bad attitude, but a passion. And it’s that passion that makes him so great! He WANTS to be in the lineup everyday, and simply gets frustrated when sidelined by injury. He takes it harder than most because he wants to be in there so badly, unlike our beloved Chipper who finds any excuse to sit out. This kid Yunel is “ballplayer”, folks - one with a passion for the game unsurpassed by any other. I guess fleeing your native country and riding to America in a small boat to follow your dream of playing professional baseball in the Bigs will do that to a guy. Quite frankly, the lethargic Braves need more of that passion, not less. #19 should be as untouchable in a trade as Brian Mccann.
By Roman Gal
October 19, 2008 7:14 PM | Link to this
I wonder if Lillibridge’s problems this year were an effect of his wrist injury last year that kept him out of winter ball.
By THB
October 19, 2008 7:16 PM | Link to this
I think we would be a better team if we traded Escobar, Medlen, and Gorkys for Peavy and K.Greene, and then went out and got Magglio for Flowers, Locke, and Hicks, and topped it off with an Oliver Perez signing. We would keep Schafer, Hanson, Heyward, Rohrbough and Freeman. We’d have a rotation of Peavy, Perez, Jurrjens, Hampton/Campillo, Hanson/Morton which is very good. We’d have a lineup of Schafer/Anderson, Kelly, Chipper, Magglio, McCann, Kotchman, Franceour, K.Greene.
I would say that’s doable and somewhat realistic.
By Roman Gal
October 19, 2008 7:31 PM | Link to this
The way I think of this trade and how much is possibly too much to give up for the guy is to look at what our line-up in 5 years might look like…
I envision:
1B: Freeman
2B: Johnson
SS: Escobar
3B: Jon Gilmore or Eric Campbell
LF: Heyward
CF: Schafer
RF: Frenchy
C: McCann
You try your hardest not to trade any of those guys…but you absolutely don’t include more than one.
Guys like Gorkys, Flowers, and Rohrbaugh would be considered top prospects in most other organizations, and I think a deal centered around those guys could get it done. And if FW can convince Towers that Lillibridge’s season was bad because of injuries, then we’re in business.
By mbatl
October 19, 2008 7:33 PM | Link to this
Sounds good, and fairly reasonable, to me, THB.
I’m not sure that Peavy, Greene, Maggs and O. Perez (plus Hampton, and maybe Smoltz) would fit in the budget as it’s been described (sounds like well over $50 mil in new contracts), but the team you put together sounds great, and if we could do that and protect the top 6 or so prospects, I’d be thrilled.
And, I’ve never heard that Wren has a hard topline budget number… if the deals made sense, I have a feeling we could make them.
By derek
October 19, 2008 7:34 PM | Link to this
This is just a ? now dont yell at me lol. But what about chipper moving to 1b? i know we dont really have anyone to fill in at third but, would he be less injury prone?? idk just asking have chip play 1b til flowers gets here?
thoughts…
By Efrim
October 19, 2008 7:39 PM | Link to this
THB
If we could do what you proposed at 7:16, then where do I sign? But I am not too sure Medlen would be enough pitching for the Padres. I think their focus has moved(or always was), to pitching and middle infield.
By BosnianBaller
October 19, 2008 7:41 PM | Link to this
Make the trade.How many of our prospects the last few years acctually turned out to be great players? 2 (McCann and Wainwright)
By Jeff
October 19, 2008 7:42 PM | Link to this
Trading Esco or Hanson would be a stupid mistake, those two should be among the untouchables, IMHO.
It would make more sense to put together a package including Schafer and/or KJ before either of those two.
By Steve from OH
October 19, 2008 7:50 PM | Link to this
Efrim:
THB’s proposal could work if we threw in (or the Pads would accept) Redmond and Reyes or a younger prospect. And maybe try B-Jones in the Tigers trade in place of one of those guys (Flowers/Locke).
That would be a good offseason.
By Efrim
October 19, 2008 7:52 PM | Link to this
BosnianBaller
Make the trade.How many of our prospects the last few years acctually turned out to be great players? 2 (McCann and Wainwright)
With all due respect, that is a terrible way to run your organization. You’ll end up like the Astros if you act like that.
By Random
October 19, 2008 7:54 PM | Link to this
Wayne — you can’t believe everything my mom says. She’s old and bitter.
By ncscoots
October 19, 2008 7:55 PM | Link to this
I’m not going to comment again on the possibility of including Escobar in a Peavey trade…I’ll just start frothing at the mouth again, and it’s not a sight to which I would subject the blog more than once, LOL.
Frankly, there’s no good answer to “what should be in the package?”. The Braves and bloggers are going to feel the pain, one way or another, because (in Efrim’s classic words) he’s not coming for peanuts and bubblegum. I don’t think there is any way to make a package that doesn’t hurt the Braves, at some point. Whether that hurt comes in 2009 or the future remains to be seen. I’ve read all the proposals put forth here, and considered a few of my own design, and every one of them (that I think might actually go) makes me blink.
Of course, NOT getting a Peavey-type player will hurt the team, too, so it may just be pick-your-poison. Good luck, Frank. You’ll need it, buddy.
By Steve from OH
October 19, 2008 7:59 PM | Link to this
Jeff, I agree that trading Esco and Hanson would be a mistake. Trading Hanson would be a bigger mistake than many think: 4 quality pitches, fastball sits at 94, tops at 96, I’ve heard M-Braves announcers say he has a “devastating” slider. I mean, look at his AFL outings. Those games are against some of the elite prospects in the upper minor leagues.
Also, if we’re in the hunt for pitching, it doesn’t make too much sense to trade away a guy that will (almost certainly) be in the rotation at some point next season, especially considering his ceiling.
By Jake
October 19, 2008 8:01 PM | Link to this
Depending on when and if this trade goes down will help to figure which players are more expendable in a trade. What I mean is if the Padres are patient when it comes to trading Peavy it could give the Braves some time to see what happens in free agency and see what we bring in via that route. That could better help us see who is actually expendable. I still say if you are going to trade one or the other you trade KJ because he is the only one we have a decent backup plan for. Jake Peavy in our rotation will always sound good but what good is it if you give up one of our most consistent hitters on a team that already struggled offensively. No matter how good the pitcher is you aren’t going to win a game for him if you don’t score. The guy went 10-11 with a 2.85 ERA while someone like Ted Lilly went 17-9 with a 4.09 ERA. It always helps when your team can score some runs.
By BosnianBaller
October 19, 2008 8:02 PM | Link to this
Efrim
I’m not saying lets sell everyone in our farm like the Yankees,but the Braves have won most of the trades for proven players like the Hudson trade.
By derek
October 19, 2008 8:03 PM | Link to this
What about trading for Carl Crawford? hes fast and not that expensive i believe..? He doesnt have a lot of power like Dunn. WE need some speed and it looks like we will get it with anderson and with Crawford. maybe i just want him cuz his last name is part of my family lol idk But power mite be more important idk. I do know like basketball i would rather have 5 ppl average double figures than 2 30’s and a few around 10 well apply that baseball. I would like to have multiple high average bats as opposed to low average lots of power.. The more ppl get on the better chance we have to score runs. They can get on base ,steal and put pressure on the other team.
if anyone has msn add me and fill me in on stuff please derek_kauffman@hotmail.com
By caballo muerto
October 19, 2008 8:07 PM | Link to this
GO RAYS!
By Pete H.
October 19, 2008 8:08 PM | Link to this
Personally, I think the Pads would rather have Kelly than Yunel, and since we have Prado, not a problem. Hate to see him go, but that’s life. It’s the rest that will hurt. Schafer and Morton and probably Parr and perhaps B. Jones would be a fair deal. Let’s see what others offer.
The Dodgers and Red Sox are supposedly hot for Peavy, and they have prospects and ML players to spare that are at least as good as what we have to offer.
We might have to offer an extra player to not take Greene.
If they really want Escobar, we can get by with Lillibridge. As long as we add a really good bat in LF.
I’d talk to the Astros too. They’re so short of really good prospects, they are probably ready to blow up the team, and we might be able to get Oswalt and Lee for a major haul of prospects and younger players. They are earning top dollar, so it would hurt any FA signing ability, but those two would sure look nice in Atlanta.
By David O'Brien
October 19, 2008 8:11 PM | Link to this
Wilson: What Nick and Wayne said at 4:26 & 4:27 is pretty much the way I see it right now, regarding Furcal.
By derek
October 19, 2008 8:15 PM | Link to this
“PICK YOUR POISION”
By Efrim
October 19, 2008 8:15 PM | Link to this
Bosnian Baller
I’m not saying lets sell everyone in our farm like the Yankees,but the Braves have won most of the trades for proven players like the Hudson trade.
See, everyone keeps bringing that trade up, but a fleecing like that doesn’t happen all of the time. Yes, I know, Jurrjens/Hernandez for Renteria. But the Rangers didn’t get fleeced. Or at least that is what every talent evaluator says.
By David O'Brien
October 19, 2008 8:16 PM | Link to this
Bobby’s Cox, saw the restaurants and thanked you, but now I can’t access them either because that blog is somewhere in the ether. So if you could post ‘em again, or e-mail them to me, either way, that’d be cool.
I asked in the blog too whether you knew if the Coach House is still open in San Juan Cap. We used to see some great shows there in the year I lived in Newport Beach in late 80s.
By cameron
October 19, 2008 8:18 PM | Link to this
Ok here is what I think. The Braves should trade for Jake Peavy, and really push hard to get Adrian Gonzalez, in a deal centering around Casey Kotchman. Sign Adam Dunn, Sign Derek Lowe. And go after Oliver Perez. I know Kotchman is young and cheap but look at the numbers Gonzalez puts up, 30+ homeruns, 100+ rbis. And if you have to give up Johnson or Escobar, go all out. Get Peavy, Gonzalez, Greene for your choice of players that it would take(with reason, I really dont want to give up Hanson, or the other top prospects) but think of that lineup for 2009.
Now the Pitching Rotation. 1. Jake Peavy
2. Tim Hudson
3. Derek Lowe
4. Jair Jurrjens
5. Oliver Perez
I dont know what you all think about that, but that is a scary team. With Dunn behind chipper think of the pitches he would get to hit. And just think of the lineup in general. Jones, Dunn, Gonzalez, McCann, Francoeur. Thats scary to me.
By derek
October 19, 2008 8:19 PM | Link to this
Hey I agree If we can get Peavy and somehow Oswalt Im sure they(Hunting Buddies) both would like that lol. Idk about lee though..but who knows.
By McFann Ô
October 19, 2008 8:20 PM | Link to this
OK, I’m gonna to guess that the NL Silver Sluggers will be announced on November 7.
By Jake
October 19, 2008 8:22 PM | Link to this
I hope the Rays beat the Red Sox. I know they are down a run already. I know all the experts say that MLB would rather have the red sox in the world series for ratings but I for one get tired of seeing the same team over and over again. The Rays are actually a pretty exciting team to watch. Upton and Longoria have put on quite a show this offseason.
By Tim
October 19, 2008 8:23 PM | Link to this
Okay if we trade Escobar in the Peavy trade and get Greene back in return we could think trade Greene to the Cardinals since they seem to really, really want him. Spend the money we would have used on a #1 starter to bring Furcal back to Atlanta. We need a legit leadoff man and we haven’t had it since Furcal left. Sign a Jon Garland or Paul Byrd type innings eater. Trade for a LF. Maybe Delmon Young or Josh Willingham? But who knows what is gonna happen. I really hope that September KJ had was him finally turning the corner to be a consistently good hitter.
By Mitchie-san
October 19, 2008 8:26 PM | Link to this
I have a strage feeling that we might flip Peavy for a surprise outfielder with power and then grab a couple pitchers off the free agent list……..hmmm…..
By BravesFan79
October 19, 2008 8:28 PM | Link to this
Anyone wanting to trade Escobar is a Moron! Us NOT having Escobar in the first half of 2007 was the reason why we didnt win the division in 2007. Dont believe me? Replace all the at bats Woodcrap got with Escobars #’s……all the games it looked like a AAA lineup with Orr, Woodcrap, Andrew, and Thorman. Remember when we we 10 games over .500 and then Chipper got hurt…. thats when we started dropping. Because we had Woodcrap starting games, and not Escobar.
Bur enough about the terrible mistake make by Cox to leave a .350 spring training hitting Escobar off the team for a lifetime .180 hitter in Chris Woodcrap.
This past season alot of fans jumped on him when his production went down. I warned pple on here that us letting Pena go was a TERRIBLE move, not only because Corky sucked, but because i knew it would make Escobar go into a slump.
Imagine you were playing in Japan, and the only person on the team that you could talk english to was your friend since u were little. Then out of nowhere they cut him…in favor of keeping a less talented player. Would this not p** you off? Make you care a little less about the team? I could tell in his attitude in the days/weeks after that sometimes his heart just wasnt in the game….and it showed in his performance. Add injuries to that, and it makes for a bad season. And he STILL was better than average among NL shortstops.
Escobar is a emotional player who wears his heart on his sleave, give me 10 MORE of him please!!
Trading this future all star is a BIG TIME mistake!
Best solution: keep all infielders and add Renteria as backup SS… and let Escobar play 3rd whenever Chipper needs a rest. Having such a strong infield will help offset the fact we have a average at best outfield.
By ncscoots
October 19, 2008 8:28 PM | Link to this
Unfortunately, the Tex trade may have some impact on any potential Peavy trade. As big a fan of Escobar as I am, I could live with his inclusion were Andrus still in the system.
But he isn’t, and players such as Lillibridge and Hicks are. Lillibridge may rebound (I still like the kid, but he’s making it tough), but I’m confounded as to how Hicks made it to any “top” lists. He must have something that I haven’t seen, I guess; not an unknown circumstance.
By derek
October 19, 2008 8:29 PM | Link to this
One problem Cameron Husdon aint pitching til August if we are lucky so who would be the other starter?. I would like to sign Peavy and Lowe too!
By James Munson
October 19, 2008 8:30 PM | Link to this
Who are some of the big outfield free agents this offseason? And any idea who is being dangled? I know Holliday, and I say NO!!! But anyone else?
By Ron Roberts
October 19, 2008 8:32 PM | Link to this
Folks, ask yourselves this: What’s a more important piece to making it to the playoffs - a starting SS w/good range and a cannon arm or an ace starting pitcher?
At the end of the day, you have to give up something to get something tangible, and if it takes giving up Yunel to get Jake Peavy, I say you do it, because you can fill the middle infield vacancy in many other fashions.
Khalik Greene comes with the package.
KJ moves to 2B and/or you snage a free agent SS/2B who’s merely serviceable at the plate but good defensively.
KJ came up a SS if memory serves, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that we keep that in mind if/when pursuing a free-agent middle infield acquisition.
Bear in mind, that if we add Peavy, we go with an opening day rotation of Peavy, Jurrjens, Campillo, (Hampton/Glavine), and Morton/Hanson/Parr/Reyes - and no matter which of the options we go with, it’s a very good and deep rotation.
If so, we still have about $25-28 million to acquire the power-hitting OF and the percieved SS/2B we’d need if we dealt Yunel, and still have plenty to consider pursuing another big-name starter if we chose to let Hampton/Glavine go.
By derek
October 19, 2008 8:32 PM | Link to this
Hey that made me think! TIm maybe just maybe we could sell Greene to Cardinals and a few prospects to get Wainwright back??
By cabravesfan
October 19, 2008 8:33 PM | Link to this
cameron
not gonna happen dude- Gonzalez is young, cheap, a southern california native and, as you pointed out, their best player- and it isn’t close…
(as much as i like the thought…)
By cameron
October 19, 2008 8:39 PM | Link to this
* derek *
That would be the rotation around august. but still without hudson lets say it would be
(or sign Hampton back if proved healthy)
thats still a killer rotation 1-3 and oliver can be great also.
By brian
October 19, 2008 8:44 PM | Link to this
I still see the Braves doing all they can do to keep Hanson as they should. That will probably mean Schafer is gone as part of a Peavy trade - Schafer, Medlin, and KJ would not surprise me at all. If Escobar is in the trade it will probably be Escobar and Parr/Medlin plus a lesser prospect.
By Tomas
October 19, 2008 8:45 PM | Link to this
DOB,
I haven’t seen Hanson pitched, but in your profesional opinion, who would prefer to keep Tommy Hanson, or Charlie Morton. If Hanson seems to be the better pitcher, then Morton would be the one included in the Peavy deal. First off they want major league ready starters, and last time I checked Hanson was in double A, and Morton was in the majors.
Plan A.
The Braves trade Freddy Freeman, Brent Lillibridge, Charlie Morton, and Gorkys Hernandez in exchange for Jake Peavy.
Plan B.
The Braves trade Kelly Johnson, James Parr, and Brent Lillibridge for Peavy
Plan C.
The Braves trade Yunel Escobar, Tommy Hanson, and Brandon Jones for Khalil Greene, and Jake Peavy.
At first I would never agree to plan C, but I’m starting to get around the idea. I know one thing Khalil Greene is for me one of the best shortstops defensively, has occasional power(has at least 10HR when he has played 100 games), and Peavy is one of the best pitchers in the game, is under club control for at least 3 or 4 years and he is under market value.
It can either go great( Khalil Greene only makes 11errors, plays 150 games, hits 250 with 15 homers, and 70 RBI’s, and Peavy makes 30 starts, wins 17, with a 3.05ERA) or awful (Greene pulls an andruw on us and continues to decline, hits 205, with 10 homers and 50 rbi’s in 135 games, and Peavy has 5 starts pitches great but needs Tommy John surgery, and misses the whole season). I say what the hell, and leave it to the baseball gods that the Braves will not have the same luck they had this year.
One thing is for sure, the Braves wont get peavy without trading Freddy Freeman, Jordan Schafer, Charlie Morton, Yunel Escobar, Jayson Heyward, Gorkys Hernandez, Brent Lillibridge, Tommy Hanson, or Kelly Johnson. 1 or 2 of thos guys needs to be included in a deal to make the package good enough, and Towers to agree.
By ncscoots
October 19, 2008 8:47 PM | Link to this
And, if Jake Peavy happens to read the blog (and why wouldn’t he, LOL? Maybe he’d like to see what we think he’s worth), my apologies, my man. Some psychological quirk has had me misspelling your name on occasion. I think it occurs when Escobar is mentioned, but I can’t be sure. :-)
By derek
October 19, 2008 8:48 PM | Link to this
Tim Sounds good! I like Hampton u know. so i hope he gets one of the starting pos. if healthy.
By derek
October 19, 2008 8:48 PM | Link to this
Tim Sounds good! I like Hampton u know. so i hope he gets one of the starting pos. if healthy.
By cameron
October 19, 2008 8:49 PM | Link to this
* cabravesfan *
Yes I know but there has been a lot of talk about Gonzalez being traded also, but more than likely in a seperate trade to get more back, just blow them away with an offer for Gonzalez and Peavy and see if you can get it done? If I was the GM id be going for that. No one could pitch to that lineup if it was Jones, Dunn, Gonzalez, McCann, Francoeur. the odds of them comin up down in the 9th inning would be great seeing thats 3-7 in the order, and if we keep Kelly, look what he proved late in the season, you couldnt keep him off the bases, thats 2-7 scary. you get peavy, lowe, JJJ, oliver, and get hudson back late and i cant see any of you saying that team wouldnt be killer.
By ncscoots
October 19, 2008 8:56 PM | Link to this
KJ came up a SS if memory serves, so it’s not out of the realm of possibility that we keep that in mind
Spoken like a man who never saw him play SS in the minors, LOL.
I’m a big Kelly fan, but, have mercy, the kid could make your heart stop at SS. Terrible fields, I know, but still…
Believe me, that’s a notion you want to file away for another day. And hope that day never comes, LOL.
By Steve from OH
October 19, 2008 9:00 PM | Link to this
Tomas:
Yuney and Tommy! The horror!
The most I would give up for ‘ol Peaves (who I would very much like to have as a Brave, btw) is Schafer, Redmond, Reyes/Medlen/Parr, and Flowers.
I’m not giving up anything more. Well, maybe a little, but nothing like KJ or Yuney or anything on top of that.
Oh, and I see this offseason as an excellent opportunity for FW to sell high on Parr. Don’t see him in our future plans. I think he would thrive (or at least not suck, lol) at Petco. Same for Reyes (well, be a decent #4, at least).
By MGL
October 19, 2008 9:07 PM | Link to this
If you keep in mind that the Padres are trying to save money, it makes sense that they would want to try to add Greene into the trade and pick up Escobar. This saves another $6M on top of Peavy. It also makes sense that they would prefer Escobar over Kelley as I believe that Kelley is arbitration eligible this year where Escobar will only be arb eligible after next year if he is a “super 2” which he might be. The arb difference could be worth a few Million. That being said, I’m surprised that Prado does not come up in the conversation since he gets so much love on the blog.
Also, the Padres are pobably not after Tehan, Hayward, Freeman, etc as they are all at least a couple of years away. In all likelihood, they want MLB ready or near ready players.
By David O'Brien
October 19, 2008 9:07 PM | Link to this
mitchie-san, that (8:36) is the most out-of-left-field idea of the week. I mean, really. You’re not serious, right?
By cabravesfan
October 19, 2008 9:07 PM | Link to this
Cameron
I said i liked the thought- He would be tremendous in our lineup…I just don’t see it happening- they need to have something to build around and he is very popular in san diego (where did you see the rumors that the pads were thinking about trading him? that would be interesting, if true)
By McFann Ô
October 19, 2008 9:09 PM | Link to this
Steve—
I agree with your package for Peavy. That’s as high as I would go, too. It would be a shame to lose Schafer (from what I’ve heard), but I’d rather lose him than Johnson or Escobar.
By flange1
October 19, 2008 9:15 PM | Link to this
Bravesfan79,
Still on the Pena kick? Dude give it a rest. That argument was stupid the first time you put it out.
Now after 75 more times, it is even more absurd.
By f.n. hale
October 19, 2008 9:18 PM | Link to this
*DOB * I suspected a traffic jam last night so I’m not surprised. Good thing we dropped the Howard/Utley deal or it would have been down sooner.
Do you really think the ‘stros would have the best top of the rotation with Peavy/Oswalt would be the best in b’ball? I really like both guys but the two teams \playing tonight would certainly be able to present a good argument. I think Boston would certainly be ahead if you included a 3rd guy, but top two, hmm.
Also, I agree with you on Yunel. I was a little concerned about his ‘tude last year. Not necessarily something that couldn’t be corrected, but you want to see a guy have a little better control than he showed. Having said that, he put up pretty good numbers for a second year guy and showed some brilliance in the field.
By favreiszeus
October 19, 2008 9:21 PM | Link to this
For all the KJ bashers out there - look at his stats side to side with Pedroia’s.
I think everyone can agree that Pedroia is one of the premier 2b’s in the game, and I was startled to find that KJ had significantly better offensive production (HR/RBI) last year compared to the ROY with identical ABs.
2007 - KJ - 521 AB; 16 HR, 68 RBI 9 SB DP - 520 AB; 8 HR, 50 RBI 7 SB
This year, Pedroia edged him by 5 bombs and 14 RBI, but at the end of the day, 14 RBI less than the Sawx 2b is nothing to be ashamed of imo.
I will agree though that KJ is one of the more tepid guys to watch putt around the diamond and his defense is substantially worse than DP’s, but with a power LF in the lineup, we could plug KJ in the 8 slot and expect .280/15/85 (aka Pedroia-esque numbers minus the avg.) - which I will take any day of the week…….
The last point is that runs produced is the most important stat to me. That is why Ryan Howard is such an animal - the dude knocks in an insane amount of runs. If you look at it from a run production level, KJ is definitely in the same league as DP, but the respective opinions of the two players in each team’s fan base couldn’t be more dissimilar.
By StingerSplash
October 19, 2008 9:24 PM | Link to this
Got to say this about the Red Sox radio broadcast … the bumper music is cool. Last night they busted out some Primus. Just now, it was Led Zeppelin’s “Ramble On”. They had some Deep Purple earlier this evening.
By StingerSplash
October 19, 2008 9:31 PM | Link to this
Were the season premieres of The Simpsons and Family Guy tonight? Anybody got reviews of those?
By Brian
October 19, 2008 9:34 PM | Link to this
As I, for mysterious reasons, have become the red-headed step child on this blog by some, I’ll try to make this quick! I agree with DOB that we could get Peavy without giving up Heyward. Hanson is a question because if Escobar is in the trade they may be able to trade a Rourbough type P. along with Schafer etc. FW is pretty smooth
By Couch Tater
October 19, 2008 9:35 PM | Link to this
Steve I could see Omar Infante in a deal. His stock is up. He could be an everyday player. (and I would like to see him get that chance somewhere.)
By N Nine
October 19, 2008 9:42 PM | Link to this
I agree.
If padres want one of the better prospects, they should be forced to include Adrian Gonzalez for either Kotchman/Freeman.
By Tomahawkin
October 19, 2008 9:44 PM | Link to this
I know Its way too early to think about this, but If Yunel Is dealt would anyone entertain the Idea of bringing back Edgar Renteria back…?
If Detroit is gonna cut payroll, I wouldn’t mind seeing Edgar Renteria back in the “A”…We really missed him in the 2 hole last year, plus he used to kill the Phillies, especially in clutch situations…
Granted his defense is nowhere near the caliber it was 10 years ago when he was on that 97 Marlins World series team…
Thoughts?
Oh Yea, Go Rays!
By Tomas
October 19, 2008 9:45 PM | Link to this
I have a friend(who is a die hard yankee fan) and tells me to pray the Yankees get CC, because if not they would get Peavy. He tells me Melky Cabrera, Ian Kennedy, and Phillip Hughes, is a much better package than Yunel Escobar, Tommy Hanson, and Jordan Schaefer. I off course told him to shut up. I told him the Yanks would have to trade Robinson Cano, Phillip Hughes, and Brett Gardener in order to have a competitive package to get Peavy. He tells me to shut up. I personally don’t think the Yanks have such a rich farm as the Braves have.
By cameron
October 19, 2008 9:58 PM | Link to this
I was reading around on some websites and i thought this was a pretty good idea. The Yankees was in on Peavy but he doesnt want to go to the AL. The Yanks also need a 1st baseman more than anything. How bout a 3 was deal with the Yankees. I really dont think how it could go but it sounds fun to talk about. Say, Maybe something like Miranda, Igawa and Veras (or Bruney) to SD (along with about 3-4 prospects from ATL) and Ian Kennedy to ATL (who also get Peavy) and maybe Adrian González to the Yankees since they need a 1B? Braves get Peavy, and Ian Kennedy, and it might not take a lot or none of the Braves top prospects or Escobar or Johnson because the Yankees are throwing in prospects too? something to think about? what to you think?
By cabravesfan
October 19, 2008 10:01 PM | Link to this
Thomas
you are forgetting that Peavy has a full no trade clause in his deal and has expressed no desire to go to the Yankees or any other AL team (I believe he has stated this but I may be wrong on that) so it wont matter what the yanks offer if Peavy says no…
By Mitchie-san
October 19, 2008 10:03 PM | Link to this
Hee-Hee…C’mon DOB …..There are so many other ridiculous ideas on here, I felt left out!
By Steve from OH
October 19, 2008 10:07 PM | Link to this
Tomas:
They don’t. Cashman has been building that system little by little the past few years. I don’t see the Yanks getting involved because it would destroy all of that (re)building of the farm. They’ve got the pieces, but it would take almost ALL of their available pieces to complete the deal. Of course, the Yanks can absorb such a blow with the payroll of a small country. The Braves, on the other hand….
By McFann Ô
October 19, 2008 10:09 PM | Link to this
N Nine If padres want one of the better prospects, they should be forced to include Adrian Gonzalez for either Kotchman/Freeman.
Oooo! Yeah! But I doubt they’d part with him.
GO RAYS!!! Night, all!
By David O'Brien
October 19, 2008 10:10 PM | Link to this
cabravesfan: correct. That’s why this is such an unusual and favorable case for the Braves, because Peavy’s already under a long-term contract and has no desire to play in New Yorki, and has the no-trade clause to prevent that from happening.
People should be able to grasp that, and I think the vast majority of folks here do.
By Couch Tater
October 19, 2008 10:14 PM | Link to this
Heckuva at bat by Pedroia.
By Steve from OH
October 19, 2008 10:15 PM | Link to this
Couch Tater, if we could include Infante instead of Escobar in a reasonable deal that doesn’t include Tommy Hanson (it could include Schafer, I guess), I would wash AND wax Frank Wren’s car for a year.
And, for all of you Prado lovers out there, that would give ‘ol Nitram some more PT. Just something to think about.
By f.n. hale
October 19, 2008 10:16 PM | Link to this
Haven’t seen it mentioned anywhere, but would the Mariners consider looking at offers for Felix Hernandez? They are a really bad team and, I think need to make wholesale changes and could swap Felix for several top notch prospects, couldn’t they? I would have concerns about his health as he has thrown nearly 600 innings the last 3 years and is only 22, but he may be one of the top 5 or 6 right handers in baseball. If they would consider it, I’ve got to believe he would be a peso or two cheaper than Peavy, wouldn’t he?
By David O'Brien
October 19, 2008 10:24 PM | Link to this
f.n.hale, no doubt in my mind the ‘Stros would have the toughest top-of-the-rotation tandem in baseball if they had Oswalt and Peavy. You’re talking about a two-time 20-game winner (Oswalt) who’s 31, and a 27-year-old (Peavy) who in 2007 was a unanimous winner of the Cy Young Award, and the fourth pitching triple-crown winner (league leader in wins, strikeouts, ERA) in the past 40 years. In the past five years, Peavy’s posted ERAs of 2.27, 2.88, 4.09, 2.54 and 2.85.
Do you realize that in the past five years, Peavy has 1010 strikeouts in 968-2/3 innings?
By f.n. hale
October 19, 2008 10:24 PM | Link to this
McFann rumor has it the Padres have a guy, I think at double A that they like better than A. Gonzalez. They could be just blowing smoke as he’s a stud, only 26 and relatively cheap, but if the rumor is true, Kotchman might suit their needs during a rebuilding year. Not that I don’t like Kotchman, I do, but I think Gonzales would be an upgrade.
By cabravesfan
October 19, 2008 10:28 PM | Link to this
DOB
I am assuming by “correct” you mean the part about Peavy saying he didn’t want to play in NY… and i am sure most here are aware of the no trade clause- didn’t mean to imply otherwise- that comment was meant for Thomas
By N Nine
October 19, 2008 10:33 PM | Link to this
Heck of series going on in T.B. By far the best playoff series this year.
One of Greg Maddux’s teammates feels he’ll retire. Maddux could return to the Padres as a player/coach (specifically, he’d prefer a bench coach gig)
The current frontrunners appear to be the Braves, with possible centerpieces including Yunel Escobar, Tommy Hanson, and Jason Heyward mlbtrms
well we said this offseason will be active! so far so true and world series hasn’t even started yet.
Fasten your seat belts please….
By David O'Brien
October 19, 2008 10:35 PM | Link to this
cabravesfan: Yes, I was just agreeing with you on both accounts regarding Peavy vis-a-vis the no-trade and NY.
By Richie
October 19, 2008 10:35 PM | Link to this
f.n. hale
You are talking about Kyle Blanks. Dude, is like 6’6 270, a RH’d monster of a man. He hit .325 20HR 107RBIs in Double A San Antonio, he is in the Winter League, hitting .300 with 0HR 7Rbis right now. The man child just turned 22 last month.
By f.n. hale
October 19, 2008 10:38 PM | Link to this
DOB no doubt they’re both studs and no, I didn’t realize Peavy had that kind of SO #’s, but Dice-K and Beckett are pretty danged formidable and Shields and Kaz, may not have had the long term success yet but are both pretty highly rated amongst organizations, or so I hear. I wouldn’t mind going to war with any of the above.
What is the general consensus amongst the folks here about Tim Hudson, when he’s healthy. Man, when that guy has his command, I think he’s danged near unhittable. Of course that could be said about a few other guys, but I think Hudson’s stuff is as good as it gets. Dude gets unbelievable movement sometimes.
By Richie
October 19, 2008 10:40 PM | Link to this
Question Bloggers, some left a link for those who wanted to get into baseball as a profession, on the previous blog, which is no longer up. I may not be phrasing this correctly but I am interested in looking at that link and website. Is it possible to re-post it here? If you have it, I’d greatly appreciate it.
By Jason
October 19, 2008 10:40 PM | Link to this
David, Try the new one by Dr. Dog—-Fate. It’s great.
By Efrim
October 19, 2008 10:43 PM | Link to this
Ya had a feeling Aybar was going to do something there….
Good for him.
GO RAYS!!!
By Couch Tater
October 19, 2008 10:43 PM | Link to this
Jeff Ridgeway!!!
By N Nine
October 19, 2008 10:44 PM | Link to this
Few days ago Peavy’s agent gave a list of teams that Peavy would accept to GM Towers. This list included Braves,Cards,Astros, and Dodgers. Yes not Yankees anywhere on the list. We can rest on the fact Yankees will not interfere with the Braves. Dodgers are behind since they share the division. Astros apprently don’t matchup well on their young kids. It might be Cards vs Braves at this moment.
DOB Any chance Braves might get A. Gonzalez in the deal. What do you think? I know im getting ahead of myself since this is centered around peavy…
By StingerSplash
October 19, 2008 10:44 PM | Link to this
1978: Bucky F. Dent. 2008: Willy F. Aybar?
By N8
October 19, 2008 10:46 PM | Link to this
Boy, that Aybar for Ridgeway trade sure looks good about now, doesn’t it.
Yikes.
By N Nine
October 19, 2008 10:49 PM | Link to this
Is that Willy Aybar or Willie Harris?
By Joe
October 19, 2008 10:52 PM | Link to this
How about The Braves send Kelly Johnson, Yunel Escobar and Jojo Reyes to The Padres for Jake Peavy and Khalil Greene.
By f.n. hale
October 19, 2008 10:54 PM | Link to this
Have a game, Willy Aybar!!!
I need some personal advice here, if you guys don’t mind. My HD T.V. in the living room went out today. Can’t go back to standard def so I’m watching the game in the bedroom. Wifey has to work in the A.M. and is tossing and turning and sighing. I think her body language is saying “turn off the f.n. t.v.”. What should I do? a) turn off t.v. and go to sleep, b) go to guest room and watch standard def (both options score points for future) or c) tell her the tossing and turning is disturbing my concentration and I’ll need her to head upstairs before the next inning (will score exactly 0 points for future). My wife doesn’t have much of a sense of humor when she’s trying to sleep, if that helps. Uh Oh, another sigh.
By 22oz
October 19, 2008 10:57 PM | Link to this
Its the bottom of the 7th in Game 7 of the ALCS. Your team is up by 2 in an intense nailbiter trying to get into your first World Series. The crowd has been great and into the game all night. Time to play Day-O!
Skip Caray is rolling in his grave.
By StingerSplash
October 19, 2008 10:59 PM | Link to this
I know we try to stay away from hot burner on the stove topics such as religion, politics, et al, but … with all that money Sen. Obama raised, he couldn’t pay for someone to proofread his ads? I just saw his TV spot where he attacks Sen. McCain for voting with the President on 90 percent of the votes and uses McCain’s line “If you wanted to run against President Bush, you should have run four years ago” and sources it to … the presidental debate. Presidental, not presidential.
By Couch Tater
October 19, 2008 11:02 PM | Link to this
f.n. hale- Trade her for Jeff Ridgeway.
By Josh P.
October 19, 2008 11:04 PM | Link to this
f.n. hale gotta go with (B), buddy. My crappy cable company doesn’t have TBS on it’s HD tier so I’m stuck in standard def anyway, but you’ll be kicking yourself if you choose a, and she’ll be kicking you if you choose c…
By StingerSplash
October 19, 2008 11:06 PM | Link to this
Joe,
I don’t think young Mr. Reyes fills the bill as major league ready for the Padres’ needs, despite his nearly two years of service with the big club. He’s clearly proven he is not a ready for prime time pitcher. A package of Hanson-Escobar-Heyward (a similar prospect, if there is one) might be too much to part with. But to get Peavy, I think the Braves need to think long and hard about parting with some of the top-tier talent waiting in the wings.
By Brian
October 19, 2008 11:06 PM | Link to this
SingerSplash- Did you just say all that? You’re gonna have to go sit in the corner now!
By Tomas
October 19, 2008 11:08 PM | Link to this
DOB, cabravesfan,
I don’t know if what i’m going to tell you is true or not, but I read that Peavy’s agent said he would waive his no trade clause for three american league teams, stating “every kid has the dream to wear pinstripes one day”. That mean the Yankees are one of the teams he’d consider to play for, Boston after the rumors this week, and who knows which is the other american league team.source.
Hey I hope DOB, cabravesfan, you’re right, but Peavy has never said he won’t play for the yankees.
By Steve from OH
October 19, 2008 11:11 PM | Link to this
fn hale:
take B buddy.
By cabravesfan
October 19, 2008 11:12 PM | Link to this
f.n.hale
tell her she should appreciate the fact that you are home with her and not drinking at a bar somewhere and won’t stumble into bed trashed at 2 a.m and that she should just learn to like baseball and that play-offs are a perfectly acceptable reason to show up late to work the next day…(of course I can say that becasue it is only 8:00 out here)
By Josh P.
October 19, 2008 11:22 PM | Link to this
David Freaking Price!!!!
By f.n. hale
October 19, 2008 11:27 PM | Link to this
Richie I didn’t do the research, but I figured if true, the minor league guy must be something for them to like him better than A. Gonzales.
By N Nine
October 19, 2008 11:27 PM | Link to this
Drew strikes out with bases loaded ouch. Contrary to past the leaders are killing the team. The Captain Varitek hitting .053 and Papi @ .154.
By 22oz
October 19, 2008 11:28 PM | Link to this
fnhale You could have solved this problem earlier if you had fed her wine and turkey for dinner.
By Tomas
October 19, 2008 11:30 PM | Link to this
David Price has such a great future upon him. Imagine that is what the Pirates wanted in exchange for Bay(with other prospects). Lefty, 95mph fastball, and a very slider, and changeup, with impecable control. It doesn’t get much better than that.
By Jake
October 19, 2008 11:36 PM | Link to this
Boy Bay caught a break. I could tell from at home his bat went. Most of the time I honestly can’t tell but that one was easy now Bay gets a walk.
By Steve from OH
October 19, 2008 11:42 PM | Link to this
All right! Rays win!
By N Nine
October 19, 2008 11:42 PM | Link to this
congrats to Rays now go beat the phillies!!
By caballo muerto
October 19, 2008 11:42 PM | Link to this
BEAT THOSE STINKING PHILTHIES!
By f.n. hale
October 19, 2008 11:44 PM | Link to this
Jeff Ridgeway?? - dude, been married 23 years so no mid-level prospects.
cabravesfan, she’s a California girl so maybe you know better than me, but somehow I don’t think that’s the answer. I’m thinking C but I need to hide sharp objects first just in case. Maybe I can hold on, there’s only 2 outs to go.
By Jake
October 19, 2008 11:46 PM | Link to this
Let’s go Rays!!! Go beat them Phillies. Maybe the time off will mess with the Phillies mojo. We know what happened the last time the Phillies played in a dome in the World Series.
By Lew
October 19, 2008 11:47 PM | Link to this
Rays win in St. Pete and the Bucs just won in Tampa on National TV. Glad I’m not driving on I 275 or Hwy. 19 right about now. A great night in the Bay Area. Almost wish I still lived there. What a year for the Rays.
By StingerSplash
October 19, 2008 11:47 PM | Link to this
Phillies in six. But this will be a fun series. Good young starting pitching (except for Jamie Moyer, who is adequate ancient pitching, having first appeared during the Paleozoic Era), good lineups with power and speed (how bout a Carlos Pena-Pat Burrell 30-yard dash to determine a WS winner? No?), deep bullpens, wily, crafty managers. OK, at least one of them is, and the other is Charlie Manuel. Actually, I shouldn’t sell Charlie so short. He’s done a pretty good job in Philly. But I think the Phillies are just a smidgen better.
By f.n. hale
October 19, 2008 11:48 PM | Link to this
Game over - problem solved. Thanks for help David Price and others here.
Man ump rung up Drew and Kotsay on that same pitch six inches off the plate.
By cabravesfan
October 19, 2008 11:52 PM | Link to this
fn hale- I’m a california girl too but not sure if that would work on me- I would be watching the game while you went out and got a new HD TV for me so maybe I’m not the best person to offer advise:)
By StingerSplash
October 20, 2008 12:06 AM | Link to this
In Tampa, they’re popping champagne bottles. At Fox Sports HQ, they’re opening bottles of whiskey and scotch, anything to dull the pain from the ratings of a Tampa Bay-Philly World Series. You know, you just know, a Boston-L.A. Series had Fox Sports just drooling. Their worst nightmare was Tampa-Philly.
By Bo
October 20, 2008 12:16 AM | Link to this
Congrat to RAYS…and Aybar. Last to first, maybe they’ll win it all. GO RAYS!!!!
Get Peavey asp….
Great to see a mgr. make the right pitching moves and not pick his nose.
By David O'Brien
October 20, 2008 12:18 AM | Link to this
That was refreshing to see. The Rays really appreciate this and aren’t acting too cool to enjoy it.
Nice to see all those young guys really enjoying playing together. That exuberance seemed so genuine afterward, when they came sprinting in from the outfield, Crawford and Upton, and dove onto the pile. Good stuff.
And also, I think we’re getting a better idea of why the Braves wanted Aybar in the first place, aren’t we? Shame he couldn’t have been healthy and of the right mind to do this with Atlanta.
By David O'Brien
October 20, 2008 12:23 AM | Link to this
f.n.hale, the pitch to Kotsay was a strike, or at least way too close to take. Looked like it was right on the black to me. Nasty pitch. Outstanding pitch.
By David O'Brien
October 20, 2008 12:30 AM | Link to this
For all those asking in various ways about Adrian Gonzalez and whether I think the Braves will trade for him: No. No, I don’t. Actually, no. Glad you asked: no. Well, no. What I’m saying is, no.
By David O'Brien
October 20, 2008 12:35 AM | Link to this
That game, and postgame celebration, were refreshing to see. The Rays really appreciate this and aren’t acting too cool to enjoy it.
Nice to see all those guys really enjoying playing together. The exuberance seemed genuine afterward, when they came sprinting in from the outfield, Crawford and Upton, and dove onto the pile. Good stuff. And David Price … that’s some serious talent. He’s got great stuff and seems like a very bright kid.
Oh, and I think we’re getting a better idea of why the Braves wanted Aybar in the first place, aren’t we? Shame he couldn’t have been healthy and of the right mind to do this with Atlanta.
By richbrave
October 20, 2008 12:39 AM | Link to this
Because of the phrasiology I would have to post a “yes” to the question. It’s the price I would want considered. He is not worth the top minor leaguers on the farm if he walks on water. Do NOT bet the farm on one high priced arm. $$$$ yes, current players - yes, top future players NO.
By jj
October 20, 2008 12:40 AM | Link to this
Drew went around and ump rung him up. Great call , great game.
By N Nine
October 20, 2008 12:47 AM | Link to this
DOB was that a no? Kotchman is a valued player but not even consider other options??
By gary
October 20, 2008 12:54 AM | Link to this
Edgar Renteria is an available free agent to replace Escobar if he is traded. Renteria has stated in the past that he’d love to come back to Atlanta.
By Veer
October 20, 2008 12:55 AM | Link to this
Guys, If Esco is included in the trade for Peavy then our offense will have big holes. 1) you trade esco and get weak at SS 2) in trading our prospects for Peavy it doesnt leave much room to trade for a OF this off season.
I feel our offense might be very weak next year. You have Franceour who stinks and then you might have to go with Greene or Lil bridge??.
As far as free agent OF’s… well Burrell and Dunn neither impress me. Do we really need a 240 hitter with 30-40 hrs? The guy i would go for is Ibanez but he alone will not fix our offensive problems.
By Veer
October 20, 2008 1:06 AM | Link to this
What I think will take to get Peavy. We have to look at from S.D’s prespective.
1)They would like to dump Greene and get a SS in return- Esco is your guy. 2) They want a CF- Schafer seems to be the guy 3) They want young pitching- Morton, Hanson and Medlen seem to be the candidates.
2 possible trade routes that should get us Peavy
A) Esco, Schafer, Morton and Mendlen B) Hanson, Schafer, Morton and B.Jones
By Veer
October 20, 2008 1:06 AM | Link to this
What I think will take to get Peavy. We have to look at from S.D’s prespective.
1)They would like to dump Greene and get a SS in return- Esco is your guy. 2) They want a CF- Schafer seems to be the guy 3) They want young pitching- Morton, Hanson and Medlen seem to be the candidates.
2 possible trade routes that should get us Peavy
A) Esco, Schafer, Morton and Mendlen B) Hanson, Schafer, Morton and B.Jones
By David O'Brien
October 20, 2008 1:08 AM | Link to this
N Nine, the Braves are trying to get two starting pitchers and a power-hitting outfielder. They traded for a first baseman on July 31. They have three major needs, as they see it. First base isn’t among them. Not a need. Not a major need, nor a secondary need.
By Tomahawkin
October 20, 2008 1:09 AM | Link to this
Gary If Esco Is traded I like the Idea of bringing back Renteria at a 2 year 9-10 million clip while we develop a future SS in the Minors….
Veer I like the Idea of going after Ibanez or maybe even Bobby Abreu, even though I think that Abreu will be a little more expensive to get…
By BravesFan79
October 20, 2008 1:10 AM | Link to this
flange1:
So you Really think that emotion dosent play a part in sports like it does life? Did Smoltz not talk to a psychiatrist to get him back on track?? Did Kotchman not slump badly when his mother was in the hospital??
So your going to tell me there was absolutely NO correlation bt letting Pena go and the start of Escobars slump?? Did you not pay close enough attention to the games to tell Escobar just didnt have his heart in the next 50 or so games after letting Pena go?
I think you just dont wanna admit that you were wrong when you said the Braves needed the “defensive specialty” of Corky. HAHA….. well you were wrong, and u were wrong about escobar… just look at his numbers/errors in the next 50 or so games after the trade.
Escobar is a good fielding, all around .330 hitter. To me hes better than Furcal. Yea you know… furcal… the master of the homerun….. i mean popup.
But im so glad that most of this blog wants to replace a future all star SS thats still cheap… with some .220 hitting rookie.
And while i love the idea or bringing back Renteria as a BACKUP….. he just dosent have thefielding range anymore to play everyday.
Bottom line… we cant afford to loose Escobars bat in the lineup. Not with the weak hitting outfield we currently have!
By Veer
October 20, 2008 1:22 AM | Link to this
Tomahawkin- Abreu wouldnt be a bad choice either.
Lets just say that we do indeed get Peavy and another FA starter. We would be loaded with SP but our offense would be horrible.
I can imagine alot of frustrating offensive games next yr. I mean Another year of Franceour and possibly a retarded Shortstop with Greene. Chipper missing 42 games next yr and Mac cant catch everyday.
Just imagine all the frustrating at bats from Greene/LilBridge and Franceour. What worries me is that Peavy trade will mean we wont have chips left to trade for Mags or a decent OF.
By BravesFan79
October 20, 2008 1:22 AM | Link to this
If we dont land Peavy i hope we go HARD after Roy Halladay. Dudes the top pitcher in the AL in my eyes.
Hes like the AL’s version of Smoltzie.
So am i the ONLY Braves fan pulling for the Phillies? I just dont think the Rays deserve it……im glad they got to the big dance… but can you honestly say their fans deserve it the way the phillies, reds, cardinals type (you know… TRUE baseball fans) would?
I just hate all florida baseball teams. I hated the marlins when they were in the WS, and i hate the D Rays. Neither of them deserve a title.
Now the RedSox in 2004 Deserved their title, the Cardinals recently Deserved their long awaited title. As for Tampa Bay….. there fans dont deserve jack sht… because there not true fans. Wait i take that back…. i guess around 10,000 of them are.
By BA
October 20, 2008 1:40 AM | Link to this
Price had that Smoltz look in his eyes…kind of Joey Devine in an alternate universe. Reminded me of Avery, too- in the glory days. And speaking of the Astros, will you guys please stop this Oswalt/Peavy talk? It makes my stomach turn.
DOB, I wish they would do it for Escobar/Medlen/Marek, but I bet they’ll want more. I’d be willing to add Schafer or Flowers, because Flowers is blocked and I really like Gorkys Hernandez.
Gary, I would absolutely prefer to bring Renteria back over Furcal or Greene.
Wren should trade for Edwin Jackson (or one of their starters), because I bet that kid Price is in the Tampa rotation next year.
But the bottom line on Peavy, for me, is that if they want Escobar OR Johnson you’ve got to pull the trigger, because in post-roids baseball, pitching is more valuable than ever, and like somebody said the other day, we did just fine with Rafael Belliard playing every day at short. The Braves have had some strong lineups in recent years, and they won squat for lack of pitching.
By Tomahawkin
October 20, 2008 2:24 AM | Link to this
BravesFan79 I’m also rolling with the phillies. Since I’m a regular poster on the Philly.com/Phillies Forum I’m pulling for them just to show those clowns on ESPNY that the N.L. East is on point…
Plus One of my boyz is a huge Phillies fan…
By ccrider
October 20, 2008 2:43 AM | Link to this
PANIC ALERT! The Braves will not make a trade they think will weaken their team next year or in the future. First everybody quoted 2 near ready starting pitchers and a shortstop, then it was that grouping with a centerfielder thrown in. Let’s look at both teams needs and the meeting point in the middle. Braves needs: 2 Starting Pitchers and a left fielder. San Diego 2 young starters and middle infield and/or centerfield help. If, the Braves want to contend next year as Frank Wren as stated, he will not include Hanson(WHO is the best pitching prospect to come through the system in years), Schafer( WHO is the best centerfield prospect in the system and will be starting opening day as DOB and I believe), NOR Heyward, Freeman or Teheran. So, what will San Diego take to fill their needs, PITCHING: TWO OF Morton, Medlin, Redmond, Rohrborough, Reyes, Marek, Diamond or Locke. CF Gorky(We need Schafer now and they don’t), Middle Infield: Probably a shortstop: Escobar is in play, but the pitching options are reduced: No Morton or Rohrborough. In SUMMARY: IT makes no sense for the Braves to give up Hanson, who has the stuff to be a Cheap No.1 starting pitcher for Peavy at $15 mill a year, 2nd if the Padres want a CF they get the one further away because they are rebuilding not us. Middle infield: Escobar is expendable but becomes the centerpiece, Greene does not comeback in the trade! THE Braves have other needs to fill, the Padres can trade him to another team willing to take the risk for 1 year. Shortstop is filled with either a combo of Infante starting and Lillibridge as a late inning replacement or Renteria being signed with Lillibridge as a late inning replacement. Hicks is on the fast track plays great defense, hits with power and for RBI’s. Just needs to cut down on the strikeouts. FINAL TRADE: Escobar, Gorky, Medlin, Redmond and maybe Reyes thrown in to look better. We fill their needs while preserving the players to make us competitive now and in the future OR WE SHOULD NOT MAKE THE TRADE!
By TommyP
October 20, 2008 7:33 AM | Link to this
Right team, Wrong Pitcher
15 Oct Last week I talked about how the “Peavy to Atlanta” rumors need to stay just that….rumors.
To recap, I surmised that the cost of prospects plus his potential for injury (also, will he be as dominant outside of San Diego?) due to those violent mechanics would prove to be too costly for the Braves.
His salary is VERY affordable for an ace pitcher in these economic times but I feel the aforementioned issues make him a very risky acquisition.
So who is the guy that Atlanta should aggressively pursue?
Well, he does play in San Diego but it’s not Peavy.
Chris Young.
I can hear the comments now. ”Are you out of your mind??? Chris Who over Peavy????”
Before I go any further, I am not assuming that the Pads are in a Florida Marlin-type firesale to clear salary. I’m just assuming that Young isn’t untouchable.
Let’s break Young down into the three categories I did last week with Jake Peavy.
Cost in $
Young’s salaries for the next few years?
2009: $4.5 million 2010: $6.25 million 2011: $8.5 million club option VERY affordable contract.
You can’t get very much in the pitching market nowadays for 4 and a half million dollars, I assure you. (Carlos Silva signed a 4 year-$48 million contract last year) Even if Young was getting that 2011 salary annually in his current deal, he’d still be a quality starter.
Cost in Players This part is difficult to gauge. How much does San Diego value Chris Young in terms of player-return?
I would imagine San Diego would be asking for a major league ready position player and 1-2 mid-level prospects but not anyone’s top prospects.
Upside Let’s take a look at what Young has done in his major league career: 2005 (w/Texas): 12-7 record, 164.2 IP, 162 hits, 45 BB, 137 K, 4.26 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and a .252 BAA. 2006 (w/S.D.): 11-5 record, 179.1 IP, 134 hits, 69 BB, 164 K, 3.46 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and a .206 BAA. 2007: 9-8 record, 173.0 IP, 118 hits, 72 BB, 167 K, 3.12 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and a .192 BAA. 2008: 7-6 record, 102.1 IP, 84 hits, 48 BB, 93 K, 3.96 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and a .221 BAA. You might be saying that he benefitted greatly from Petco. While his last two years have been significantly better in San Diego, his first year with the Pads shows he pitched much better on the road. (in Texas he was slightly better on the road)
Let’s look at this past year a little more closely.
He missed a chunk of games this year due to two injuries.
His first injury put him out for awhile as he was hit in the face with a ball off the bat of Albert Pujols. Ouch.
He later missed time due to a strained forearm which undoubtedly occurred due to being out for so long and perhaps being rushed back too soon.
Overall, he pitched once in July and twice in August.
When he came back in September, he was knocked around in his initial return vs. the Dodgers. But take a look at his final 4 starts of the season: 9/7: 9.0 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K. 9/13: 7.0 IP, 7 hits, 3 ER, 1 BB, 9 K. 9/20: 7.0 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 4 BB, 5 K. 9/27: 6.0 IP, 5 hits, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K. Impressive finish to an injury-riddled campaign.
That’s 29 IP, 16 hits, 5 ER, 5 BB, 24 K, 1.55 ERA, 0.72 WHIP and a .155 BAA over his final 4 starts.
Will Young get better? Depends on where he pitches his home games but it’s definitely not unrealistic to believe he still hasn’t reached his peak.
Leaving San Diego will definitely hurt the numbers some but Turner Field isn’t a bad place to pitch in, either.
Add to the fact that in 2 of his 4 seasons that his road ERA was better than his home ERA and you can probably dismiss him as solely as “Petco Product.”
As far as injuries (which I always consider when talking about “upside”), Young has been pretty much injury-free so far. The injury inflicted by Pujols was a freak one and the strained forearm very well could have been attributed to his arm not being in mid-season shape when he returned. His workload has been fine. Seasons of 164.2, 179.1, 173.0 and 102.1 IP do not show a pitcher that’s been overworked over the years.
Verdict Young is extremely affordable in salary for 3 more years, it shouldn’t cost a huge amount in terms of what you’re giving up, and there’s definitely upside there as he’s still young (29 years old) and hasn’t been overworked over his young major league career.
You have to LOVE the fact he doesn’t put many guys on base and, while not considered a strikeout pitcher, he’s close to averaging a K per inning in his last 3 seasons.
If I’m the Braves and after your initial lowball offer for Peavy is quickly shot down, I’d go very hard after Chris Young.
By TommyP
October 20, 2008 7:53 AM | Link to this
Right team, Wrong Pitcher
15 Oct Last week I talked about how the “Peavy to Atlanta” rumors need to stay just that….rumors.
To recap, I surmised that the cost of prospects plus his potential for injury (also, will he be as dominant outside of San Diego?) due to those violent mechanics would prove to be too costly for the Braves.
His salary is VERY affordable for an ace pitcher in these economic times but I feel the aforementioned issues make him a very risky acquisition.
So who is the guy that Atlanta should aggressively pursue?
Well, he does play in San Diego but it’s not Peavy.
Chris Young.
I can hear the comments now. ”Are you out of your mind??? Chris Who over Peavy????”
Before I go any further, I am not assuming that the Pads are in a Florida Marlin-type firesale to clear salary. I’m just assuming that Young isn’t untouchable.
Let’s break Young down into the three categories I did last week with Jake Peavy.
Cost in $
Young’s salaries for the next few years?
2009: $4.5 million 2010: $6.25 million 2011: $8.5 million club option VERY affordable contract.
You can’t get very much in the pitching market nowadays for 4 and a half million dollars, I assure you. (Carlos Silva signed a 4 year-$48 million contract last year) Even if Young was getting that 2011 salary annually in his current deal, he’d still be a quality starter.
Cost in Players This part is difficult to gauge. How much does San Diego value Chris Young in terms of player-return?
I would imagine San Diego would be asking for a major league ready position player and 1-2 mid-level prospects but not anyone’s top prospects.
Upside Let’s take a look at what Young has done in his major league career: 2005 (w/Texas): 12-7 record, 164.2 IP, 162 hits, 45 BB, 137 K, 4.26 ERA, 1.26 WHIP and a .252 BAA. 2006 (w/S.D.): 11-5 record, 179.1 IP, 134 hits, 69 BB, 164 K, 3.46 ERA, 1.13 WHIP and a .206 BAA. 2007: 9-8 record, 173.0 IP, 118 hits, 72 BB, 167 K, 3.12 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and a .192 BAA. 2008: 7-6 record, 102.1 IP, 84 hits, 48 BB, 93 K, 3.96 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, and a .221 BAA. You might be saying that he benefitted greatly from Petco. While his last two years have been significantly better in San Diego, his first year with the Pads shows he pitched much better on the road. (in Texas he was slightly better on the road)
Let’s look at this past year a little more closely.
He missed a chunk of games this year due to two injuries.
His first injury put him out for awhile as he was hit in the face with a ball off the bat of Albert Pujols. Ouch.
He later missed time due to a strained forearm which undoubtedly occurred due to being out for so long and perhaps being rushed back too soon.
Overall, he pitched once in July and twice in August.
When he came back in September, he was knocked around in his initial return vs. the Dodgers. But take a look at his final 4 starts of the season: 9/7: 9.0 IP, 2 hits, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K. 9/13: 7.0 IP, 7 hits, 3 ER, 1 BB, 9 K. 9/20: 7.0 IP, 2 hits, 0 ER, 4 BB, 5 K. 9/27: 6.0 IP, 5 hits, 1 ER, 0 BB, 5 K. Impressive finish to an injury-riddled campaign.
That’s 29 IP, 16 hits, 5 ER, 5 BB, 24 K, 1.55 ERA, 0.72 WHIP and a .155 BAA over his final 4 starts.
Will Young get better? Depends on where he pitches his home games but it’s definitely not unrealistic to believe he still hasn’t reached his peak.
Leaving San Diego will definitely hurt the numbers some but Turner Field isn’t a bad place to pitch in, either.
Add to the fact that in 2 of his 4 seasons that his road ERA was better than his home ERA and you can probably dismiss him as solely as “Petco Product.”
As far as injuries (which I always consider when talking about “upside”), Young has been pretty much injury-free so far. The injury inflicted by Pujols was a freak one and the strained forearm very well could have been attributed to his arm not being in mid-season shape when he returned. His workload has been fine. Seasons of 164.2, 179.1, 173.0 and 102.1 IP do not show a pitcher that’s been overworked over the years.
Verdict Young is extremely affordable in salary for 3 more years, it shouldn’t cost a huge amount in terms of what you’re giving up, and there’s definitely upside there as he’s still young (29 years old) and hasn’t been overworked over his young major league career.
You have to LOVE the fact he doesn’t put many guys on base and, while not considered a strikeout pitcher, he’s close to averaging a K per inning in his last 3 seasons.
If I’m the Braves and after your initial lowball offer for Peavy is quickly shot down, I’d go very hard after Chris Young.
By Deep Throat
October 20, 2008 8:57 AM | Link to this
If Esco Is traded I like the Idea of bringing back Renteria at a 2 year 9-10 million clip while we develop a future SS in the Minors
Oh God. Why can’t some people here just get over Furcal and Renteria already? They’re gone and not coming back. Look at Renteria’s offensive stats this season. Bring him back, are you kidding me? And please don’t say the “he’s an NL player” BS.
I like Renteria but the last thing the Braves need are more weak-hit grounders rolling through the hole because Renteria has the range of a sloth in moving towards his third base side.
Keep Escobar. But if the Braves must to get Peavy, just accept Greene for a year. His slugging percentage outside Petco is outstanding.
By JC from UT
October 20, 2008 9:22 AM | Link to this
DOB: If the Peavy trade does not go through, is there a plan B to fall back on? Is FW looking at other starters to offer a similar package for? Is there a next tier down starter available who FW could get for less prospects? Say Aaron Harang (or was his injury last season to worrysome?) Or Jamie Guthrie, Andy Sonnsestine. I realize the last two are not #1 starters but is it so bad to have 2-3 #2 starters than a rotation of #4 starters?
By DAP
October 20, 2008 9:24 AM | Link to this
if escobar is demanded by the padres for peavy, i would walk away. we need pitching, but we dont need to make our team weaker in one area to make it stronger in another. escobar is too important to this team winning. i dont want to trade KJ either, but out of our middle infielders, KJ is expendable, escobar is not.
By Random
October 20, 2008 9:25 AM | Link to this
DOB: “no doubt in my mind the ‘Stros would have the toughest top-of-the-rotation tandem in baseball if they had Oswalt and Peavy. You’re talking about a two-time 20-game winner (Oswalt) who’s 31”
DOB: “Come on, man. As faulty a stat as RBI can be, wins is an even more flawed way to judge pitchers. It’s so heavily dependent upon run support and other factors, including defense and overall level of team play.”
8->
By Shaun
October 20, 2008 9:39 AM | Link to this
Random, going back to a post on the last blog about RBI and RBI percentage or RBI per baserunner, whatever you want to call it.
Judging hitters even by RBI percentage (even if you take away homers) is not a good way to judge. It favors players who hit more homers. Even if you take away homers, you aren’t taking away, say, runners on first driven in by a homer.
If a guy hits two homers with runners on first each time but makes an out his other three times to the plate, he gets less credit than a guy who hits three solo homers and gets on base every time up. This is why RBI or RBI percentage or other runners batted in should not be weighed very heavily.
By Cherokee
October 20, 2008 9:44 AM | Link to this
Esco, Flowers, Reyes, Redmond and Valdez. I’d be ok with that deal.Steve
why would anybody take Reyes at this point?
By McFann Ô
October 20, 2008 9:50 AM | Link to this
CONGRATS TO THE RAYS!!! Now BEAT THEM FILLIES!!!
Rays get home-field advantage! Maybe that final play of the AGS wasn’t so bad after all……
Yeah, I don’t think the Pads are gonna trade Gonzalez. (DOB, your 12:30 was really funny!)
F.N. Hale—
Yeah, Gonzalez would be an upgrade, but there’s no way they let him go—so there’d be be no point in asking for him, (kinda like the Pads asking for McCann). And the Braves have Kotchman, so first base isn’t a hole.
By McFann Ô
October 20, 2008 9:52 AM | Link to this
BTW—Anybody know what “9=2” means?
Thanks.
By Patrick
October 20, 2008 9:53 AM | Link to this
DOB,
Have you heard anything about the Braves interest in brining back Will Ohman?
By Shaun
October 20, 2008 9:57 AM | Link to this
Oh, and I think we’re getting a better idea of why the Braves wanted Aybar in the first place, aren’t we? Shame he couldn’t have been healthy and of the right mind to do this with Atlanta.
Yes. Where are all those who thought trading Betemit was one of the worst moves Schuerholz made?
By Steve from OH
October 20, 2008 9:59 AM | Link to this
Cherokee:
Becuase he’s a 23 year old left handed SP with good stuff? Not saying his trade value is sky-high, but it’s not as low as many here believe, IMO.
By Random
October 20, 2008 10:00 AM | Link to this
flange1: “Bravesfan79,
“Still on the Pena kick? Dude give it a rest. That argument was stupid the first time you put it out.
“Now after 75 more times, it is even more absurd.”
I dunno — it makes sense to me.
8-)
But I do hope that the Devils make the Fillies CRY like schoolgirls. Cry, cry, cry …
By DAP
October 20, 2008 10:04 AM | Link to this
mcfann from what ive heard, the rays manager, john madden is a fan of the new math in baseball stats. he told the rays at the beginning of the season that he wanted 9 more wins out of the offense, 9 more out of the defense, 9 more out of the pitching…i think that was all.
anyways, you know all the stats shuan and steve throw around abouthow many wins a particular player is worth over a season…thats what madden was talking about. he wanted 9 more from every facet of the game, hitting, defense, and pitching, and the figured it would get them into the playoffs, which is 8 teams. so 9=8 became a catchphrase. now that they are going to the world series, its 9=2. get it?
By Cherokee
October 20, 2008 10:06 AM | Link to this
I have a strage feeling that we might flip Peavy for a surprise outfielder with power and then grab a couple pitchers off the free agent list……..hmmmMitchie
thats pretty damn strange alright, and pretty damn stupid too. If they get Peavy i can absolutely guarantee they won’t be stupid enough to waste him on an outfielder. Nobody in their right mind would do so.
By Shaun
October 20, 2008 10:07 AM | Link to this
World Series Pick: Rays in 6. A Hamels start should be the only one in which the Phillies have a clear edge. And maybe they get a break or two in another game as close games decided late favor the Phillies’ bullpen. The pitching matchups favor the Rays.
By Threadkiller
October 20, 2008 10:10 AM | Link to this
I know i’m in the minority here but I do not like the idea of getting Peavy. First of all FW and the braves sound desperate! The Braves deseration will lead to giving up too much to get Peavy. Look at what we will give up for Peavy! Look at what we gave up for Tex! So if we deal for Peavy, that will mean in the last 2 years we have just traded away just about an entire minor league team for two guy’s, one of which is no longer here! There is plenty of talent on the free agent market! Make a serious run for Dunn and Lowe. Then wait to see what the Marlins and other teams do with their Arbitation players. Btw, since the Ray’s won last night! How did they get Price? This young stud will be a starter next year. We all know the answer!
By Shaun
October 20, 2008 10:13 AM | Link to this
Random, it’s fairly difficult to win 20 games in back-to-back years without being at least pretty good. But it’s not so difficult for a great pitcher to win under 20 games when playing for a mediocre or bad team.
By Richie
October 20, 2008 10:17 AM | Link to this
We can try to trade Reyes for Scott Olsen. The trade helps both parties. Olsen is arb-eligible and we can take on his salary increase plus he is ML ready, and would help create a younger rotation. A little erract but you get him out of that FLorida smog and I think we have oursleves a very good young left handed pitcher, and pair him with Jair and we will have a very good combo, plus Peavy or whatever ace we go after and that is a nice 1-2-3 rotation there . The Marlins get a lefty with a high ceiling, with little Major League service on him, which means should he get better, they can trade him
By Lew
October 20, 2008 10:19 AM | Link to this
To those who are espousing the acquisition of Chris Young from Sand Diego and quote how cheap is salary is-THAT is exactly the reason they will trade Peavy and NOT Young. They can afford Young at half of Peavy’s pretty cheap contract. Stop and think y’all-what would be the equity of them trading the cheaper good guy when they need to knock off salary and still act like they care about winning. Makes ZERO sense they would trade Young instead of Peavy. None.
By McFann Ô
October 20, 2008 10:24 AM | Link to this
Thanks, DAP!
So now let’s say 9=1, right? ‘Cause only one team will be the winner!
BEAT THEM FILLIES!!
Hopefully the week-off will come back to haunt the Fillies!
By Original Jon
October 20, 2008 10:31 AM | Link to this
DAP I think John Madden is in football buddy. I think you mean Joe Maddon. LOL.
By DAP
October 20, 2008 10:33 AM | Link to this
for those you you picking the phils to win the series…do you think the phillies are better than the red sox? i dont think anyone would say that. then why do some people seem to think the phils are a better team than the rays, who have proven that they are a better team than the red sox?
i think its really going to be a stretch for the phils to win this series. the rays are putting out some very good pitching. garza looks real good right now. kazmir, shields…these guys are the real deal, and if theyve got price in that bullpen hurling like he can, they are dangerous.
By TommyP
October 20, 2008 10:45 AM | Link to this
Lew: I noted “assuming he’s not untouchable.”
Towers has said that nobody on the roster is untouchable.
The only player they’ve mentioned that they doubt they’d ever deal is Gonzalez. (or Hoffman for that matter)
The Braves BETTER ask about the guy ‘cause how do we know how much salary they are cutting? Is it a Marlin-type salary slash to attract new ownership?
I’m thinking the Braves are going to be wise and “Schuerholzian” (like that term?) and low-ball on the Peavy offer. Follow that offer with a similar one for Young and you might strike a deal.
They’re not dealing Giles (picking up his $9 million option for this year but could deal him at the Break) or Hoffman.
That leaves Khalil and C.Young as the next two highest salaries.
Is ridding Peavy and Khalil enough of a salary slash?
Or do they want to go “all in” as Buster Olney pontificated?
Remember, Khalil’s trade value is pretty poor right now.
Giles is a 10 and 5 guy, i believe.
Especially under the potential new ownership, we don’t know how far they want to take this.
By DAP
October 20, 2008 10:51 AM | Link to this
original jon haha, youre right! i get those two names mixed up pretty easily, im sure you can understand why. im bad with names anyway, and when two are really close…there’s no hope for me.
By Cherokee
October 20, 2008 10:55 AM | Link to this
but can you honestly say their fans deserve it the way the phillies, reds, cardinals type (you know… TRUE baseball fans) would? I just hate all florida baseball teams. I hated the marlins when they were in the WS, and i hate the D Rays. Neither of them deserve a title. 79
are you posting from a mental institute? With your Pena crap and this current nonsense you seriously need some help there fella
By Random
October 20, 2008 10:56 AM | Link to this
“Maybe that final play of the AGS wasn’t so bad after all……”
Would that be “All Gar Stame” or “All Game Star”?
American Gerbil Society? Army General Staff? Adolescent Guidance Services? Any Given Sunday?
;->
Shaun: “Judging hitters even by RBI percentage (even if you take away homers) is not a good way to judge. It favors players who hit more homers.”
Well, duh — of course it does! And that’s because — as you yourself have said — HR-hitters are more valuable than singles hitters.
MVP — get it?
And there is only .008 difference between Howard’s and Utley’s SLG (.543 v .538), so what’s your point there, anyway? Surely you’re not saying that it’s significant that Howard showed 1.5% more power than Utley, and that explains why Howard drove in 20+% of baserunners while Utley drove in 16-%?
Bottom-line — Howard seems to have been a more productive hitter than Utley.
“If a guy hits two homers with runners on first each time but makes an out his other three times to the plate, he gets less credit than a guy who hits three solo homers and gets on base every time up.”
First off — we don’t need hypotheticals. We can use the following real life example:
If a guy drives in 98 of 483 baserunners (20.29%), he is a more valuable hitter than a guy who drives in only 71 of 444 baserunners (15.99%). Nothing hypothetical about that.
Second — what do you mean “credit”? “Credit” for what? Could you be any vaguer?
In your scenario, the first guy is batting .400/.400/1.600; the second guy is batting .600/1.000/2.400. Looks right to me that the first guy would get less “credit”, at least for AVG/OBP/SLG.
On the other hand, the first guy would’ve driven in 2 of 2 baserunners (100%), while the second guy would’ve driven in 0 of 0 (0%). Not a fair comparison, but whatever “credit” there was would accrue to the first guy, as far as productive hitting. So what does the first guy get less credit for, as far as OBI% goes?
“This is why RBI or RBI percentage or other runners batted in should not be weighed very heavily.”
Please stop conflating arguments and lumping RBI totals (a counting stat dependent on so many factors other than the batter’s abilities), RBI percentage and OBI percentage together.
You know very well that these are totally different stats. You deliberately muddy the waters when you treat them all the same.
By Shaun
October 20, 2008 10:59 AM | Link to this
Threadkiller, do we know yet what the Braves gave up for Teixeira? We hear it a lot but it’s still pretty early to evaluate that trade. Also, lets wait and see a) if the Peavy deal is actually made and b) what the Braves give up before we start blasting it.
How did the Rays get Price? Well, the short answer is they stunk the year before.
Lew, right on about Young. Also, Young is older and, while solid, is likely never going to be a Cy Young candidate.
DAP, well, I can’t speak for the folks picking the Phillies but their thinking could be the Phillies bullpen and offense. If the Phillies outstanding offense can overcome the Rays’ pitching and defense and their starting pitching can limit mistakes, they could win it. I could definitely see a scenario in which the Phillies win it, namely if there are lots of close games.
But I’m with you. The Rays have more good arms and I think their defense is better; things which matter a great deal in the post-season.
By StingerSplash
October 20, 2008 11:06 AM | Link to this
My next question is this — did the Rays just turn the whole notion of experience on its head? They put their least experienced pitcher, and maybe the pitcher with less major league experience than any player this postseason, and put him on the mound in the most crucial of all spots against a team that was playing in the ALCS for the fourth time since 2003 and had won two World Series in four years. Maybe talent > experience. I guess we won’t find out the answer of how Philly fans would have welcomed J.D. Drew during the World Series. He might have had to go to home plate in full body armor.
By McFann O –[brr!]
October 20, 2008 11:11 AM | Link to this
Random Would that be “All Gar Stame” or “All Game Star”? American Gerbil Society? Army General Staff? Adolescent Guidance Services? Any Given Sunday?
LOL!! My bad! I meant ASG.
Actually, we do have two Gerbils…
So OK: Maybe that final play of the ASG wasn’t so bad after all!
Thanks, Mr. I-was-perfect-in-saves-in-the-regular-season-but-still-cost-my-team-home-field-advantage-in-the-World-Series Lidge!!
The Rays have the edge?? Righteous!! BEAT THEM FILLIES!!
By Cherokee
October 20, 2008 11:11 AM | Link to this
Becuase he’s a 23 year old left handed SP with good stuff? Not saying his trade value is sky-high, but it’s not as low as many here believe, IMOSteve
Unfortunately it’s not your opinion that matters. It’s the other teams opinion and there is no reason in the world that another team should desire Reyes and his stinking major league performance so far enough to include him in a trade for a proven # 1, unless it is basically as a throwin. Guys like he and Lilly have next to no value to another team after their poor performance. They are currently more valuable to the Braves in case they might bpunce back than they are to another team that should be able to get a more promising guy. It’s not really about who is gonna end up being the best cause there is no way to know that. It is about perceived promise and right now Reyes is definitely lacking in that regard.
By Original Jon
October 20, 2008 11:12 AM | Link to this
DAP its all good buddy, i thought it was quite funny myself. I had this immediate visual of John Madden and his Tough Actin Tinactin commercials and him trying to coach a baseball team. HAHA.
By Lee in S GA
October 20, 2008 11:16 AM | Link to this
The Rays pitching is better but as we have seen in the past, the best team does not always win the W.S. Cheering for the Rays to win but I could see the Phillies pulling it out in 6 or 7. It would be something if Aybar wins the MVP and if the Rays win it all he may just do that.
By Efrim
October 20, 2008 11:20 AM | Link to this
Shaun
Threadkiller, do we know yet what the Braves gave up for Teixeira? We hear it a lot but it’s still pretty early to evaluate that trade.
This is kind of off subject, but you don’t invest in the theory of TINSTAPP, do you?
By DAP
October 20, 2008 11:24 AM | Link to this
shaun i agree that the phils COULD win. i think if they hit homers late in games, which is definetly something they can do, then they have a chance, but the rays, as i see it, are a much better team.
all those years of being the worst team in the majors and getting the #1 pick in the draft has all come to fruition at once for them.
By Mr. Grits
October 20, 2008 11:27 AM | Link to this
Sorry DOB, I got sidetracked yesterday. On Ryan Adams, you’ve probably heard by now but he played 13 songs, one hour, complained a few times that he was losing his voice (sounded fine, actually), then abruptly apologized and quit at 9:45. People thought he was joking and we all stood around waiting to see what the deal was. Finally after 15 minutes or so the roadies started breaking down the stage and the lights came on. Nobody from the band or management came back out to explain or anything. What the band played sounded fantastic, which made the early exit all the more disappointing. RA played an absolutely inspired guitar solo during Wonderwall. The drummer posted an apology on the band blog that night. I guess you’re right, this is what you get with Ryan.
By rammerjammer
October 20, 2008 11:29 AM | Link to this
“First of all FW and the braves sound desperate!”Threadkiller
Correct. The Braves ARE desparate.
They will have to overpay to get Peavy because a) he’s still more affordable than any other available #1 starter, b) the Braves HAVE to get a #1 starter, and c) the Padres don’t HAVE to trade Peavy.
By Random
October 20, 2008 11:35 AM | Link to this
Shaun: “Random, it’s fairly difficult to win 20 games in back-to-back years without being at least pretty good. But it’s not so difficult for a great pitcher to win under 20 games when playing for a mediocre or bad team.”
Ahhhhh, yes — trying to get back in the good graces, eh?
Good luck, kid!
Lew October 20, 2008 10:19 AM — Well said!! My thoughts exactly.
By David O'Brien
October 20, 2008 11:36 AM | Link to this
TommyP, you sure wasted a lot of keystrokes talking about a guy (Chris Young) the Padres aren’t trading. Yes, he’s very affordable. One reason he’s not being traded.
Now, back to monitoring/waiting for developments in the real world, the pursuit of a genuine ace — Peavy.
By Bobby's Cox
October 20, 2008 11:39 AM | Link to this
MGL
I was also wondering why no one mentioned Prado as a possible trade target for San Diego. It’s been discussed that the Pads are looking either for a ML ready CF, or a ML Ready middle infielder. If it’s a ML Ready middle infielder, Prado fits the bill.
Frankly, I’d rather have the Braves give away KJ, but I’m in the minority. It would hurt my heart if it were the other way around. KJ hitting more than 2 months out of the year next year, obviously, would change my opinion.
By Anders
October 20, 2008 11:41 AM | Link to this
Efrim
How ‘bout them Rangers?
Also, I guess your seeing all those reports in NY that the Yanks are going all out this off season? I told you guys Hankenstein will load up.
Peavy may not want to come to the big city but the Padres aren’t obligated to give him to the Braves or Astros if they can make a better deal elsewhere. I think this all starts with Peavy giving the Padres a list of teams he’d accept a trade to. Not the other way around. If he limits the list to a select few then they’ll advise him a trade is unlikely.
What if the Yanks offer Hughes and Cano plus? That’s a nice deal for the Padres. they could move Cano along for another piece if they don’t want him.
As for the Yanks saying Hughes is untouchable - bull. If they learned one thing this year it’s that landing a proven commodity is the right move over waiting on prospects. (i.e. Santana)
At the very least the Padres will use the Yanks to drive up the price.
By David O'Brien
October 20, 2008 11:42 AM | Link to this
My next question is this: did the Rays just turn the whole notion of experience on its head?StingerSplash
I don’t know, didn’t the Marlins already do that in 2003, when they beat the Yankees in the World Series? The Marlins didn’t have much more experience than these Rays had, and certainly it was dwarfed by the experience of their Yankeee counterparts in that series.
By David O'Brien
October 20, 2008 11:47 AM | Link to this
Lew, I just saw that you addressed the Chris Young thing before I did. Oh, well, consider mine a seconding of your comment.
By ncscoots
October 20, 2008 11:57 AM | Link to this
Bobby’s, I wouldn’t be all that jacked about seeing Prado go west, either, unless Willie Aybar magically re-appears at the Braves’ door. I know we’ve knuckled about Prado vs. Johnson before, but I certainly think Martin is a valuable member of the squad.
By Braveheart
October 20, 2008 11:57 AM | Link to this
I was also wondering why no one mentioned Prado as a possible trade target for San Diego. It’s been discussed that the Pads are looking either for a ML ready CF, or a ML Ready middle infielder. If it’s a ML Ready middle infielder, Prado fits the bill.
There you go again with the irrational Martin man crush …… maybe it’s because Wren wants to negotiate the trade without being laughed at …… martin would be a throw-in at best …… if towers demanded martin as a central trade figure, it would take wren all of a half second to say see ya martin …… then wren would get off the phone and roll on the floor laughing his a@@ off at the feebleness of towers’ mind
By Cheyenne
October 20, 2008 11:57 AM | Link to this
My next question is this — did the Rays just turn the whole notion of experience on its head?
Short Series = Crap Shoot. no matter where or when.
By Lew
October 20, 2008 12:03 PM | Link to this
TommyP-Chris Young would not be the pitcher I would look for to anchor our rotation in the future. Peavy, while there are worrisome (to me, anyway) issues, would be. Were we to get Young instead (who is also older than Peavy, as well as not as good), we would STILL need two top of rotation pitchers. Young is a number three at best-IF that high in the rotation. He is NOT an Ace. I would not target his acquisition unless we were desperate, because we couldn’t get anyone better. I’m betting we can.
By Random
October 20, 2008 12:05 PM | Link to this
BravesFan79: “So am i the ONLY Braves fan pulling for the Phillies? I just dont think the Rays … fans deserve it the way the phillies, reds, cardinals type (you know… TRUE baseball fans) would … As for Tampa Bay….. there fans dont deserve jack sht… because there not true fans.”
Well, Fillies phans deserve as much misery as can legally be given to them. They are horrendous.
But forget the fans — all fans are parasites, in some respects.
The Devils team is more deserving than the Fillies team, imo. And those are the guys actually playing.
By Anders
October 20, 2008 12:09 PM | Link to this
Give the Rays full credit for a solid series but lets be honest, if Beckett was himself and Lowell is healthy I think the Sox win. Kotsay proved to be a little light in the big hit department. Lowell was just the opposite last year. As for Beckett, well if you’re reading this blog no explanation should be necessary. That’s all part of the deal but I don’t view this like the Rays slayed the mighty Red Sox at full force.
By Efrim
October 20, 2008 12:10 PM | Link to this
Anders
I can’t imagine the Yanks dealing Cano and Hughes for Peavy. Look real bad on their part. Plus, he doesn’t want to pitch for them.
And the Rangers are very good. But Cups aren’t won in October.
By David O'Brien
October 20, 2008 12:12 PM | Link to this
To folks who think Yankees money can wedge them into the middle of every trade scenario or free-agent pursuit they want to be in, consider this from Oct. 16 L.A. Times:
“[Peavy’s agent Barry] Axelrod said he recently gave Towers a list of teams to which Peavy might consent to being traded. On that list were the Dodgers, Atlanta Braves, Chicago Cubs, Houston Astros and St. Louis Cardinals.”
Semmes, Ala., native. Full no-trade clause.
For once, Yankees are on outside looking in. And greasing the bouncer won’t get them past the velvet rope on this one.
Next.
By DAP
October 20, 2008 12:23 PM | Link to this
anders lets be honest, if Beckett was himself and Lowell is healthy I think the Sox win. Kotsay proved to be a little light in the big hit department.
i think youre pretty much right, but remember in game 5 when the red sox were facing elimination, kotsay had the 2-out double and scored the tying run. id say he definetly made a good contribution to that red sox team, at least as much as he was expected to.
not having lowell and manny made the red sox a much weaker team, i think.
i honestly dont think beckett made that much of a difference. he was good and won one of his starts, and though he got rocked in his first one, even if he had won that start, i think the rays still would have taken it to 7 games, because the game where they were up by 7 and lost it, their guard was down because they thought they were about to win. had they been 2-2 in the series, they woudnt have lost that game.
but yes, the red sox were a weaker team without manny and lowell. if they had those two guys, i think they would have had a much better chance.
By David O'Brien
October 20, 2008 12:23 PM | Link to this
That’s all part of the deal but I don’t view this like the Rays slayed the mighty Red Sox at full force.Anders
And two weeks from now, if the Rays win the World Series, few people outside Red Sox nation will remember or care whether the Sox were at full strength.
No one cares whether a team had injuries in a postseason series. History isn’t kind to the team with injuries. Just doesn’t matter.
Rays beat them, and did it after Sox overcome a 7-0 deficit in seventh inning to win Game 5, then won Game 6. Pretty impressive to stop that momentum.
By Nate
October 20, 2008 12:25 PM | Link to this
So would the Padres or anyone else be interested in Anderson, Blanco, or Prado? Do any of these guys have positive trade value?
My guess is that other teams are gonna view all three of these guys as slightly better than replacement level, but not enough that anyone is gonna come calling. Can’t see the Padres being excited about acquiring any of these guys.
By David O'Brien
October 20, 2008 12:27 PM | Link to this
One more thing: This series was a continuation of the regular-season series between the teams.
The Rays won 10 of 18 against the Red Sox this season, including seven of the last nine games.
Since June 30, the Rays have won 11 of 16 games against the mighty Sox.
By Lew
October 20, 2008 12:32 PM | Link to this
I’d like to point out something else about Chris Young, We need to acquire pitchers who are innings eaters, otherwise we end up with our typical way overused bullpen. This will again result in (just like the past several years) major stress on our entire rotation and will give us yet another bullpen with blown out arms that are (as we’ve repeatedly seen) not effective.
Look at Chris Young’s career. Yes, he has a decent ERA. Yes, his BA against is excellent. Yes, he has the requisite 2-1 K to BB ration, but……
He has pitched an average of 5 innings per start throughout his entire career (I’m underwhelmed). He has NEVER pitched close to 200 iP. He had twelve less starts in 08 as compared to the three previous years - Just what is THAT all about?
He has (over the past 3 seasons), a 2.95 ERA at home in San Diego, with it’s overly spacious pitcher’s park, yet had an ERA of almost a full run per game (3.87) away from SD. He is a dreadful pitcher the second half of the season. The past three seasons, he had 19 wins in April, May and June. He had 8 wins from July through the end of the season. His ERA pre- All Star is 2.96. His post- All Star ERA is 4.13. He gives up more HR on the road. He issues more BB on the road. He gives up more runs on the road.
Face it y’all. We need innings eaters at the top of our rotation that can pitch effectively the ENTIRE season, not just the beginning (The Anti-Tex?). He ain’t one of them.
By Efrim
October 20, 2008 12:36 PM | Link to this
No one cares whether a team had injuries in a postseason series. History isn’t kind to the team with injuries. Just doesn’t matter.
So true. In 20 years, no one will remember that Josh Beckett was less than 100%. Or that Mike Lowell wasn’t around. Injuries are apart of the game. B.J. Upton isn’t complaining about his shoulder that needs to get operated on in a month.
By Taylor S
October 20, 2008 12:36 PM | Link to this
DOB.. I think some of your comments may have been misrepresented on mlbtraderumors.com. It seems they have you suggesting Escobar, Kelly Johnson AND Hanson could all be traded in a package for Peavy. Did I miss something? The way I understood your blog was one of the three? There are a lot of Braves fans freaking out.
By Shaun
October 20, 2008 12:42 PM | Link to this
Random, if homeruns are basically the only thing a player does better than another player, his RBI or his baserunners driven in and percentage are going to be skewed and may indicate that a player is more productive than he really is.
You still are either ignoring this point or you just aren’t reading it: A guy who hits lots of homers is going to drive in a higher percentage and total number of runners than a guy who is better at getting on base and getting hits of all kinds. You see, it’s easier to drive in a run from first on a homer than on a single or a double.
If a player hits 48 homers for a team with a good offense, chances are he’s going to drive in more runs than a guy who hits 33 homers…even if the guy with 33 homers has a significant edge in hits, doubles, times on base, on-base percentage, batting average, defense and baserunning.
By Lee in S GA
October 20, 2008 12:42 PM | Link to this
not having lowell and manny made the red sox a much weaker team, i think.
A little surprised Manny has not held a press conference and said these very same words. Well he probably would have left Lowell’s name out of the comment.
Anders After the Braves’ injury plague season, please don’t start on what might have been.
By David O'Brien
October 20, 2008 12:43 PM | Link to this
Just got a release from MLBPA, their Players’ Choice award winners for outstanding pitchers in each league: Lincecum and Cliff Lee.
Finalists were Lincecum, Sabathia and Webb in the NL, and in the AL: Halladay, Lee and Francisco Rodriguez.
By the way, the finalists for outstanding player in the NL: Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, and none other than Chipper Jones (Hmm … Howard. I guess the MLBPA didn’t get someone’s statistical analysis packet in time).
In the AL, finalists for outstanding player are Josh Hamilton, Justin Morneau and Dustin Pedroia.
Oh, and players’ choice NL Rookie of the Year finalists include Soto, Votto, and our boy Jurrjens.
By Shaun
October 20, 2008 12:48 PM | Link to this
So am i the ONLY Braves fan pulling for the Phillies? I just dont think the Rays … fans deserve it the way the phillies, reds, cardinals type (you know… TRUE baseball fans) would … As for Tampa Bay….. there fans dont deserve jack sht… because there not true fans.
So, I suppose the Braves’ fans didn’t deserve jack in 1991?
By mbatl
October 20, 2008 12:48 PM | Link to this
To those saying we should get A. Gonzalez as part of the deal: IF the Padres wanted to trade AG (and I’ve seen no indication that they do), they’d be foolish to include him in a deal to Atlanta.
SD’s hands are tied in dealing Peavy, to the list of teams he’d approve. No such restrictions on dealing AG.
Some other team (such as the Yankees or Angels - whoever loses out on the Tex sweepstakes) would likely give much more than we would as an add-on to the Peavy deal, because they would really need a 1B. But again, there is NO INDICATION that they want to trade him anyway.
As to the WS: I’m gonna go with the Phillies in 7. I just don’t think the Rays can continue to hit home runs like they have in the ALCS (16 in 7 games), and the Phillies have the better offense and better bullpen. Starting pitching nod goes to the Rays, so we’ll see how that theory (that aces win championships) holds up. Should be a good series.
By Brian
October 20, 2008 12:50 PM | Link to this
Man, what about all these Jake Peavy trade rumors these days? Come on, let’s talk about it!
By Anders
October 20, 2008 12:51 PM | Link to this
DOB
*For once, Yankees are on outside looking in. And greasing the bouncer won’t get them past the velvet rope on this one.
Next.*
Yep, and the Mets had no chance not to mention no prospects to get Santana at just about this same time last year. Just saying - negotiations are tricky things that take funny twists and turns.
As for the Rays. I agree what they did was impressive. And I agree you play with what you bring, I was just saying that the Sox were nicked up in a couple of key spots that really helped them dominate last off season - no big deal.
Lastly, has anyone ever met an actual Rays fan? I haven’t. Sorry, but watching all those people going wild last night like they’ve waited all theses years for this when they couldn’t get 15,000 to a game back in mid July was a little nauseating. I feel good for the players but must of those fans are absolute front runners that will go back to the beach the next time the Rays are more than 5 games out of first place again.
By Shaun
October 20, 2008 12:51 PM | Link to this
Hmm … Howard. I guess the MLBPA didn’t get Shaun’s statistical analysis packet in time.
Because consensus says so, it must be correct, in spite of the evidence.
By David O'Brien
October 20, 2008 12:52 PM | Link to this
Taylor S, I didn’t suggest Escobar, Kelly and Hanson, whatsoever. In fact, I suggested that if Escobar OR Kelly was the centerpiece of a deal, perhaps the Braves could avoid including the likes of Hanson (and obviously not Heyward). I said maybe they could do a deal involving a Medlen and Marek with Escobar. (And I’ll make this addendum now: maybe you sub Morton for Medlen.)
If they read the blog closely, anyone can see I never said Escobar, Kelly and Hanson, or anything even remotely like that. But whatever. I don’t get too stressed about what’s picked up and sometimes rephrased or misrepresented by trade-rumor sites.
By Wayne
October 20, 2008 12:53 PM | Link to this
DOB And greasing the bouncer won’t get them past the velvet rope on this one
Love it!
Gotta say about the Phillies, that there are a few players on that team that I wouldn’t mind having on my team. I also like the way they try to intimidate other teams (exactly what they did to the Braves). Dodgers were having none of that though.
Just would be hard as a Braves fan to justify pulling for one of our largest rivals.
Too much like Isiah and Magic kissing.
By rammerjammer
October 20, 2008 12:54 PM | Link to this
Speculation:
Peavy and Greene for Escobar, Schafer, Medlin, Reyes and Marek.
By David O'Brien
October 20, 2008 12:55 PM | Link to this
I was adding the rookie award to this comment when it got taken down inadvertently, which is reason it looks like Shaun’s responding before the actual comment was posted. It was up briefly. Anyway, here it is in full:
Just got a release from MLBPA, their Players’ Choice award winners for outstanding pitchers in each league: Lincecum and Cliff Lee.
Finalists were Lincecum, Sabathia and Webb in the NL, and in the AL: Halladay, Lee and Francisco Rodriguez.
By the way, the finalists for outstanding player in the NL: Ryan Howard, Albert Pujols, and none other than Chipper Jones (Hmm … Howard. I guess the MLBPA didn’t get someone’s statistical analysis packet in time).
In the AL, finalists for outstanding player are Josh Hamilton, Justin Morneau and Dustin Pedroia.
Oh, and players’ choice NL Rookie of the Year finalists include Soto, Votto, and our boy Jurrjens.
By Anders
October 20, 2008 12:57 PM | Link to this
Efrim
The Yanks have really soured on Cano. Great talent, bad work ethic and very non chalant. As for Hughes, can they continue to wait for him to develop? Mussina is retiring. Pettitte if he comes back is a shell of himself. Wang is coming off injury. Joba is not the lock down they want everyone to believe he is. Sabathia doesn’t want to come to NY either. No way they make AJ Burnett their big move. The Yanks are gonna come hard this off season.
Peavy absolutely has a full no trade, but he doesn’t have a must trade. The Padres have some leverage in this too.
By Bobby's Cox
October 20, 2008 12:58 PM | Link to this
Braveheart,
My last post was in no way meant to stir debate. After many, heated, passionate, arguments regarding 2nd base this year, I in one way want to bring that up this postseason.
All I’m saying is, 2nd base is a position of strength for the Braves, and if KJ & Escobar is being talked about as trade pieces, then you might as well consider Prado there too. A few months ago, both players on this blog were talked about as trade pieces, and I would think the Braves front office would feel comfortable with either guy next year, if one had to be included in a deal to get Peavy. That’s all man. But no, my man crush could not help itself and forced me to type that my heart would be hurt. Hey, I acknowledged I’d be in the minority, so let’s leave it there and hope Houston doesn’t land Peavy.
By ccrider
October 20, 2008 1:00 PM | Link to this
A Plea to Frank Wren: I really want Jake Peavy to be a Brave. I have been a Braves fan since the they moved to Atlanta and grew up here 10 miles from where they built the old Atlanta/Fulton County Stadium. I know this may be Bobby Cox’s last year managing. BUT!!!! IF, the Braves are going to be successful beyond next season DON”T, I repeat Don’t include in this trade Hanson, Schafer, Heyward or Freeman, Morton or Teheran. The Braves would be taking on the salary and the injury risk. Escobar, Kelly Johnson, Prado, Gorky, Flowers, Rohrborough, Diamond, Medlin, Marek, Cody Johnson Etc. Etc.: the farm system is filled with high potential position players and Pitchers. Peavy would be great to have, but trading away the building blocks of the future will only set us back. Peavy’s ERA away from San Diego indicates questions of his greatness in another location and that alone should give pause to trading away the afore mentioned young players. Frank Make the trade on your terms not San Diego’s, or don’t make at all!
By Lew
October 20, 2008 1:01 PM | Link to this
Anders- The Rays won more games than all but one team in the AL and only one other in the NL won as many-and both of those other teams, the Angels and the Cubs, departed the playoffs after round one.
The Rays lost Longoria and Crawford, two of their best players for several weeks during the pennant stretch. They lost their closer several times this season, inckuding for the playoffs, yet they are still in the series. Sounds like the Mets, actually and they got nowhere near the series.
Your point is?
By Shaun
October 20, 2008 1:05 PM | Link to this
I suppose most people would rather have a firstbaseman who, the only thing he did really well was hit homers….versus a secondbaseman who got more hits, got on base more times and more often, who hit a lot more doubles, who stole a lot more bases at an impressive rate and who played better defense. I suppose the firstbaseman is more valuable to most people and we should just accept that and ignore all the things the secondbaseman does better.
By TennesseePaul
October 20, 2008 1:05 PM | Link to this
Boston ace Josh Beckett was showing Tampa Bay’s so-called “Big Game” James Shield what it meant to truly be a big-game pitcher
Lame. Boston’s ace has been anything but a big game pitcher this post season. He was hot in previous post seasons no doubt, but I don’t think James Shields was shown up. Shields kept his team in it through five, just as Becket. The score was tied 2-2 going into the sixth. Big Game Beckett was yanked, Shields wasn’t. That was the difference. That and in the ALCS Shields pitched 13 innings over 2 games with a 3.46 ERA. Mr. Boston Big Game put on a show himself. A real clinic: 2 games, 9.1 innings 9.64 ERA. Again, I know Beckett has shown up in the past, but not this post season. In this post season Big Game Beckett was lacking. Practically no where to be found: 3 games, 14.3 innings, 8.79 ERA. Shields, on the other hand, gave his team this post season: 3 games, 19.1 innings, 3.72 ERA.
Kris Medlen might interest the Padres, but I don’t think he is Major league ready. And I’m pretty sure the Padres wouldn’t think so either. The guy has thrown only 189.1 innings in the minors. And this season he set his professional IP mark in a single season: 120.1 innings. Prior to that it was 2006: 22 innings. 2007: 47 innings. This was his first season as a starter as well. If they trade Peavy I’m thinking they might want someone who can help cover his average 194 innings pitched per season a little more than a guy with 17 minor league starts to his name. Marek might interest the Padres as well. He has enough Minor league experience to make the move to the majors and he has shown himself to be a capable starter and reliever granting some versatility for the Padres.
But I would think with Towers stated copyright infringement of Bobby Cox (Pitching, Pitching, Pitching and more Pitching) that a deal of Yunel, Marek and Medlen would not be enough. I would think more pitching would be requested as Marek and Medlen don’t really replace Peavy for 2009 or beyond. Perhaps Morton if they want a fragile minded soul. At any rate, I’d imagine the Padres will ask for Escobar and/or Hanson in a deal. If the deal centers on Escobar it’d probably have to include more than two minor league relievers. Perhaps a fourth minor leaguer with high upside lower in the system. Flowers or something.
Personally I’d hold on to Hanson. This team needs pitching as well. And pitching beyond next season. Escobar would be a hard one to lose, but who knows, if Green comes back or not perhaps the Braves re-examine Furcal. He has his short comings as well, but he isn’t a terrible idea to replace Escobar.
Oh yeah, GO RAYS!!! Awesome game last night. I’m glad a low budget team knocked off the Red Sox. This should be an exciting World Series. It’ll be wrought with so much history and tradition of losing!
By Steve from OH
October 20, 2008 1:07 PM | Link to this
Peavy not likely to end up in New York.
By mbatl
October 20, 2008 1:07 PM | Link to this
DOB, yeah, Tim Dierkes at MLBTR kinda’ mis-paraphrased (?) you: his exact quote:
“David O’Brien figures the Braves will have to surrender Yunel Escobar, Kelly Johnson, Tommy Hanson to get it done.”
Makes it sound like you suggested all three, which of course you didn’t.
MLBTR is a great site in that they pull a lot of info from a lot of sites… but sometimes I think they don’t bother to carefully read the sites that they reference, and are a little sloppy in summarizing things.
By Lew
October 20, 2008 1:10 PM | Link to this
Anders-To answer your question, “Has anyone ever seen a Rays’ fan”-Yes, quite a few of them. You won’t find them in New York, especially in the Chop Shop that is Queens. You would likely have to travel to Tampa/St.Pete.
For that matter, I’M a Ray’s fan-despite the Braves being my favorite team. I lived in ST. Pete for 12 years. I was at the opening of Tropicana Field, before their even WAS a Rays team. I still have a Rays hat from the FIRST shipment of Rays merchandise and wore it to the Olympics in Atlanta (my son wore a BRaves’ hat). My Doctor, who is a good friend and a baseball fan (also from Philly), has had season tickets since the beginning. They have played to sold out stadiums frequently this season.
Yes, there are Rays’ fans. Not nearly as obnoxious and overbearing as Mets’ fans, to be sure, but there ARE Rays’ fans.
By Braveheart
October 20, 2008 1:10 PM | Link to this
Lastly, has anyone ever met an actual Rays fan? I haven’t. Sorry, but watching all those people going wild last night like they’ve waited all theses years for this when they couldn’t get 15,000 to a game back in mid July was a little nauseating. I feel good for the players but must of those fans are absolute front runners that will go back to the beach the next time the Rays are more than 5 games out of first place again.
I felt the same way about your Rangers in 1994. No one in that city gives two sh!ts about the Rangers outside of the 20,000 that show up 40 times a year at MSG. But they win the Stanley Cup and everyone and their mother pretends to be a crazy lifelong Rangers fan at the tickertape parade.
Then they made the mistake of going on strike the next winter and everyone but those loyal 20,000 nutjobs at MSG forgot all about the Rangers just as fast as they had suddenly remembered them the summer before.
By Efrim
October 20, 2008 1:11 PM | Link to this
Anders
Peavy absolutely has a full no trade, but he doesn’t have a must trade. The Padres have some leverage in this too.
So come out and say it, you think he’ll be a Yankee….
If the Braves wanted him, they could have him tomorrow. I’m not so sure you could say that about anyone else. There are “yea but” for every team except the Braves.
I will agree with you that negotiations do take twists and turns at times, but this seems to be a little different.
By McFann O –[brr!]
October 20, 2008 1:15 PM | Link to this
BravesFan79 So am i the ONLY Braves fan pulling for the Phillies?
Probably.
Random Fillie phans…
LOL…
The guy who discovered phosphate musta been a “Philly phan”…
Go Rays!! BEAT THEM FILLIES!!
By TennesseePaul
October 20, 2008 1:16 PM | Link to this
Now that I’m catching up on the posts, JoJo Reyes wouldn’t be on my untradable list either. Perhaps the Padres would be interested in him. And maybe even moving the guy back to his native state would help…
By Lew
October 20, 2008 1:17 PM | Link to this
Shaun-Dude, not to start another Shaun fest, but….. Evidenece is having a dead body with a knife sticking out of it’s heart. All it is evidence of is that there is a dead body with a knife sticking out of it and that it is likely it was murdered. That evidence does nothing to tell you who the body was, who killed them, where they got the knife and when it may have happened. Evidence is always open to interpretation-by anyone except you.
By DAP
October 20, 2008 1:20 PM | Link to this
anders Peavy absolutely has a full no trade, but he doesn’t have a must trade. The Padres have some leverage in this too.
yeah, they do, but barely. peavy doesnt want to play in the AL, or in new york. he also doesnt want to play in san diego if they are rebuilding. he will get his money either way. so if he has to choose between playing two places he doesnt mant to play, would he stay in san diego where he is comfy, or go to new york, where he doesnt want to be. i think hed be fine with staying if that was his choice.
also, i dont think the pads have much of a choice to keep peavy. they need and want salary releif, and he is their highest paid player. they cant keep im and still reach the goals they have right now.
also, it isnt likely that the pads will get such a better offer from the yanks than they would the braves or cards that they would want to trade to the yanks or nobody.
yeah, the pads have a little leverage, but not enough to really consider it important.
By McFann O –[brr!]
October 20, 2008 1:20 PM | Link to this
BTW, Bravesfan79—
You’re rooting for the Fillies?? TRAITOR!!
By Deep Throat
October 20, 2008 1:26 PM | Link to this
So would the Padres or anyone else be interested in Anderson, Blanco, or Prado? Do any of these guys have positive trade value?
No one wants Blanco or Prado. Blanco isn’t even seemingly in this team’s plans for 2009, indeed Mark Bowman wrote that he has to earn a spot again next season. And why not? Blanco played a full season and put up an OPS in 2008 Jeff Francoeur territory.
Francoeur, 2008: .653 OPS
Blanco, 2008: .676 OPS
Anderson might have some value, but not much. I can’t imagine many teams viewing him as much more than a fourth outfielder right now.
By Braveheart
October 20, 2008 1:42 PM | Link to this
Evidenece is having a dead body with a knife sticking out of it’s heart. All it is evidence of is that there is a dead body with a knife sticking out of it and that it is likely it was murdered.
Doesn’t mean he was murdered ….. could’ve been suicide …….. or an accident …..
By flange1
October 20, 2008 1:43 PM | Link to this
Bravesfan79,
I will again restate- the Pena trade causing Escobar to pine away for his friend is absurd.
For 1 game, I might buy it, but not for 50.
If you remember, DOB asked him the question a couple of times in a couple of ways and he responded that it was that big a deal.
In fact if I remember correctly, he had not even talked to Pena a few days after the trade.
Further, if you recall, Pena was waived again by the Royals and went unclaimed. They put him at AAA.
So every team in the majors had the chance to get him and passed.
I did say take Corky over Pena, and I really don’t have any problem with that statement then or now.
And no I can’t root for the Phillies to do anything but beat the Mets.
They might be a better team but I am pulling for the Rays.
By Jim
October 20, 2008 1:46 PM | Link to this
The immediate and near-term future of the Braves starting staff would include Jair, Hanson, and Morton if neither or both are not traded and the possible additions of Peavy, Hampton, and someone like Lowe and the possible retention of Hudson beyond his injury year. I haven’t seen Peavy or Hanson pitch enough to know if they are primarily a ground-ball pitchers (with a high K ratio) or not but in any case one key to good pitching is good defense. An outfield of JF in right and Anderson or Schafer in center with an unknown at this point in left seems to be at least adequate defensively. The infield as it now stands has good defense at short and first, adequate but declining defense at third and improving but below average defense at second (Prado is no more than average either from what we have seen so far). A strength of this year’s team was infield depth that became very important with injuries that limited the playing time of Chipper and Yunel. Losing Yunel weakens the offense next year, but particularly weakens the defense. As far as the suggested possible replacements, we have Lilibridge — offensively challenged and has not shown he will ever be more than a backup reserve infielder; Furcal — a possible valuable offensive contributor, but if you were watching the NLDS it was obvious he could not bend over far enough any more to field reachable balls to his right and left — a big downgrade defensively from Yunel; Renteria — will be two years removed from his career offensive year in ‘07 and does not have the range or arm to be an adequate SS any longer; Greene — best defensive option other than Yunel, but not quite as good defensively and not nearly the offensive player (except possibly for power) — Ks too much and too low an OBP to match with Francouer and possibly Diaz in the same lineup. Neither Furcal nor Renteria is a good option for SS, and a trade whose principals are Peavy and Greene for Yunel and Hanson may not be to our advantage in a year’s time. If a third prospect like Schafer were included, it would likely be one-sided the other way. If Hanson develops to be close to the pitcher that Peavy is now, then keeping him and not trading for Peavy can only help long-term when we may need to use the salary savings to add to a stronger WS contender than the one we will likely field next year.
By JasonInFL (formerly ME)
October 20, 2008 1:50 PM | Link to this
DOB, you probably hate these types of questions, but if you were a betting man; what would you place for odds of the Braves getting Peavy based on what you not only hear but see from team reps?
By McFann O –[brr!]
October 20, 2008 1:50 PM | Link to this
Anders Lastly, has anyone ever met an actual Rays fan? I haven’t.
To be honest, I had never met a Mets fan until I came on here.
Later!
By McFann O –[brr!]
October 20, 2008 1:55 PM | Link to this
And no I can’t root for the Phillies to do anything but beat the Mets.
I can’t root for them to do anything but lose. When they play the Mets, it’s like, “Ugh…Brussels sprouts or cauliflower?”
OK, this time I mean it: Later!
Go Rays! BEAT THEM FILLIES!!
By David O'Brien
October 20, 2008 1:57 PM | Link to this
Happy Birthday, Tom Petty (58) and Snoop Dogg (37).
By Burnett to the Braves in 2009
October 20, 2008 1:58 PM | Link to this
Wouldn’t it make more sense to sign Burnett to 5 years and 85 million than to trade prospects for Jake Peavy who is signed at 4 years and 63 million? I think our farm, or Yunel Escobar is worth that extra year and 22 million. Aren’t they both injury prone? And Burnett has pitched in the AL EAST while Peavy has pitched in the NL WEST……..
By Shaun
October 20, 2008 2:01 PM | Link to this
Lew, so I guess knowing that a guy gets on base more often and at a higher rate, gets more hits, gets more doubles, steals a lot more bases at a higher rate…all that evidence should all be ignored.
By beekay
October 20, 2008 2:05 PM | Link to this
Why doesn’t Ed Mejia ever get any love on this blog. He hit 47 doubles, 21 dingers and 93 RBI’s for the Pelicans. He is never mentioned as a top prospect. I saw the guy play against the Potomac Nationals in the playoffs and he hit 2 bombs that broke tree branches behind the fence.
By Lew
October 20, 2008 2:07 PM | Link to this
Braveheart-Absolutely correct. You made my point, too-there’s evidence and then there’s evidence. It is all open to interpretation. By all except Shaun, to whom it says one thing and no one else’s interpretation will be allowed.
By David O'Brien
October 20, 2008 2:08 PM | Link to this
Wouldn’t it make more sense to sign Burnett to 5 years and 85 million than to trade prospects for Jake Peavy who is signed at 4 years and 63 million?Burnett
Given AJ’s injury history, no.
He’s pitched 200 innings once in three seasons and twice in the past six seasons, and in that six-year span he’s had seasons with 120, 135-2/3 and 165-2/3 innings.
That’s a guy you want to pay $85 mill (your estimate) over five years?
By Roman Gal
October 20, 2008 2:08 PM | Link to this
Lastly, has anyone ever met an actual Rays fan? Anders
Actually the members of one of my favorite bands (We the Kings) are huge Rays fans. When I was at their concert a few weeks ago and met them, they were all giddy they had gotten into the playoffs.
By Josh P.
October 20, 2008 2:08 PM | Link to this
Deep Throat
I think it’s a bit deceiving to lump Blanco’s 2008 with Frenchy’s 2008 based on OPS.
Blanco’s OBP was a solid .366; Francouer had a putrid mark of .294.
Francoeur is the superior talent, but Blanco did a lot more to help the Braves win in ‘08 than Frenchy did. I am probably going to regret this, but Blanco’s Value Over Replacement player was 1.0, versus -17.3 for Francoeur.
By Random
October 20, 2008 2:12 PM | Link to this
Shaun: “You still are either ignoring this point or you just aren’t reading it: A guy who hits lots of homers is going to drive in a higher percentage and total number of runners than a guy who is better at getting on base and getting hits of all kinds. You see, it’s easier to drive in a run from first on a homer than on a single or a double.”
I’m not ignoring it — I get it. And to me, that is exactly what makes the first guy more valuable than the second guy.
“A guy who hits lots of homers [and drives] in a higher percentage and total number of runners” IS MORE VALUABLE “than a guy who is better at getting on base and getting hits of all kinds.”
And that’s because the second guy has no control at all over what subsequent batters do. The first guy doesn’t either, but it doesn’t matter because he has controlled his own fate by hitting homers and driving in a higher percentage of baserunners.
The second guy is “likely” to be stranded on base at a much higher rate than the first guy.
“if homeruns are basically the only thing a player does better than another player, his RBI or his baserunners driven in and percentage are going to be skewed and may indicate that a player is more productive than he really is.”
Lemme put it another way:
Howard had 700 PAs, Utley 707. Sure, Howard made 464 outs, 23 more than Utley’s 441, but he also drove in 27 more baserunners than did Utley.
And he drove them in at a higher rate — 20.29% vice Utley’s 15.99%. That was not just number one on the Fillies — it was number one in the NL (of all with at least 500 PAs).
And it’s not because of a difference in power (now you’re the one who seems not to be listening) — their SLGs were virtually identical.
Howard showed 1.5% (.543 v .538 SLGs) more power than Utley, yet was 26.9% more productive in driving in baserunners (20.29% v 15.99% OBI%s).
Plus, if it were solely attributable to power, one would expect the highest OBI% differential for baserunners on 1st base, less of a differential for baserunners on 2nd base, and even less for baserunners on 3rd base.
That is not the case. Howard drove in 11.2% of runners on 1st while Utley drove in 7.5%, a 3.7 OBI %age point differential.
However, Howard drove in 24.7% of runners on 1st while Utley drove in 14.3%, a 10.4 OBI %age point differential. Howard was more than twice as productive driving in runners from 2nd than from 1st; Utley was less than twice as productive. You can not “blame” that on Howard’s power “advantage” (.543 v .538 SLG). (With baserunners on 3rd, Howard OBI% = 34.8%, Utley = 37.4%).
“If a player hits 48 homers [and is more productive at driving in baserunners]… , chances are he’s going to drive in more runs than a guy who hits 33 homers [and is less productive at driving in baserunners] … even if the guy with 33 homers has a significant edge in hits, doubles, times on base, on-base percentage, batting average, defense and baserunning.”
Hits do not win ball games, doubles do not win ball games, times on base do not win ball games, on-base percentage does not win ball games, batting average does not win ball games, defense does not win ball games, baserunning does not win ball games — RUNS win ball games.
All of those others may be excellent predictors or indicators of how many runs a team will produce (or not allow), but when you can look at actual runs produced you don’t need to look at secondary indicators or predictors.
Howard drove in baserunners more productively than any one else on his team or in his league. Why look at second and third derivatives and re-integrate them back to hypotheticals when you can judge reality for yourself?
By David O'Brien
October 20, 2008 2:17 PM | Link to this
Shaun, are you still trying to convince someone, anyone, that Chase Utley was more valuable to the Phillies this season than Ryan Howard? Oh, you are? OK. Just checking. Feel free to continue.
You’ve got plenty of time to get your Don Quixote act ready for the release of the NL MVP voting in November, when Chase Utley will be lucky to crack the top 10 and Howard will finish in the top two (as I’ve said, I’d give the edge to Pujols over Howard if I were voting, but I’m not).
OK, keep flailing away.
Oh, and stolen bases, avg and OBP — yeah, those are of utmost importance when comparing a second baseman to one of the premier home-run hitters in baseball.
(I’m getting pulled back in, ain’t I? Like Pacino in Godfather III…)
And any chance Utley had of finishing high in the MVP voting went by the wayside when he was overshadowed by teammates during the Phillies’ stretch drive. Dude just slipped to dramatically after the first three months to warrant serious MVP consideration.
Gotta produce when team needs you most to get most “valuable” player consideration.
By DAP
October 20, 2008 2:17 PM | Link to this
josh p. I am probably going to regret this, but Blanco�s Value Over Replacement player was 1.0, versus -17.3 for Francoeur.
that made me laugh. a player with no power is ok if they get on base alot like blanco did, but really, its only ok on a team that isnt that good. a good teamneeds thier leadoff hitter to get on at a .370 clip, steal bases, and slug at least .400.
By Braveheart
October 20, 2008 2:23 PM | Link to this
Happy Birthday, Tom Petty (58) and Snoop Dogg (37).
How the hell is Snoop 37 already? Seems just like yesterday when he was telling the old hag:
I says I’m nineteen, she says, “Stop lyin!” I says, “I am, go ask my mother, And with your wrinkled *, I can’t be your lover”
By Reader
October 20, 2008 2:26 PM | Link to this
Rohrbough, Hanson, Hernandez for Peavy? Would that do it? Probably. DOB, would you do that if you were the Braves?
By Lee in S GA
October 20, 2008 2:26 PM | Link to this
Lastly, has anyone ever met an actual Rays fan? Anders
There is one in my household, my son.
By Burnett to the Braves in 2009
October 20, 2008 2:34 PM | Link to this
That’s a guy you want to pay $85 mill (your estimate) over five years?
Pay for future peformance, not the past. Wouldn’t all those innings Peavy has pitched make him less attractive?
By Anders
October 20, 2008 2:36 PM | Link to this
Efrim
I honestly think it’s less likely Peavy will be a Yankee, but I think Towers wouldn’t be doing his job if he doesn’t use them to drive up the price. Why give him away in November when you could wait until July to see who’s desperate? Kind of like the Braves did with Tex.
As for DOB’s Grease comments. You know the old saying - “One man’s grease is another man’s home town discount”. Well at least that’s an old saying up here where we have lots of grease and no home town discounts!
BTW- I was kidding about the Rangers earlier. You’re right about October. Plus, the Rangers are playing over their heads a bit in my opinion. Playoff team, yes. Top 5 team - doubtful.
By Random
October 20, 2008 2:37 PM | Link to this
flange1 — I don’t want to argue your overall point, but the following is exactly what I’d’ve liked DOB to have done at the time, and it is exactly what he did not do at all. It is, in fact, revisionist.
“If you remember, DOB asked him the question a couple of times in a couple of ways and he responded that it was [not?] that big a deal.”
If DOB did ask him, he did not report the results or content of that interview here.
“And no I can’t root for the Phillies to do anything but beat the Mets… They might be a better team but I am pulling for the Rays.”
I’m with you there, at least.
PS: Thanx, McEff. (And phosphene.)
By Epinephrine
October 20, 2008 2:40 PM | Link to this
I think its becoming pretty clear we are going to have to give up either Hanson or Schafer to get this done. Pretty high price. But I just don’t see any way around it. Like it or not, this team absolutely needs someone like Peavy atop the rotation. With Smoltz uncertain, there has to be someone that we can absolutely rely on to break losing streaks and restore confidence. Peavy can be that guy. If we sign another legit pitcher in addition to trading for Peavy, the terrible spells this team has become accustomed to may be on the way out.
By ncscoots
October 20, 2008 2:41 PM | Link to this
And maybe even moving the guy [JoJo Reyes] back to his native state would help
Unfortunately, as the year went on, his native state appeared to be “brain-dead”.
By DAP
October 20, 2008 2:43 PM | Link to this
burnett to the braves
the thing is, peavy has pitched alot of innings because he has been healthy.
burnett has not pitched alot of innings because he has been hurt alot.
the fact that burnett doesnt have as many innings on his arm is not a good thing.
By Anders
October 20, 2008 2:46 PM | Link to this
I stand corrected. It’s been 3 hours and we’ve identified 12 Tampa Rays fans. Is it possible these are the same guys who were actually attending Rays games before the 4th of July?
The highlight of the Rays making the WS for me will be the daily updates from Hankenstein who resides and works in the Yankees offices in Tampa. The NY media will be relentless for one of his ridiculous comments or possible mantras. Yum-yum. How long before Hank says the Rays couldn’t have done this without the money they receive from the Yanks via revenue sharing? I say by game #2.
By Shaun
October 20, 2008 2:51 PM | Link to this
DOB, I’m not arguing that Utley will finish in the top 10 and that Howard won’t finish in the top two. I’m arguing that Howard wasn’t the most valuable player on his team and should not win the award. I don’t care what the BBWAA thinks. I only care about the truth.
The only good thing about the voting is that the right guy should win the award—Albert Pujols. It’s just a shame that Howard will get serious consideration. Nothing against him. I’d rather have Howard than Casey Kotchman. But he was not close to the second most valuable player in the league in 2008. That’s just the objective truth.
Random, I’ll take the guy who got on base a lot more, has almost as much power, is the better baserunner and is the better defensive player. You can take the guy who racks up homeruns and RBI in between making outs more often than Adam LaRoche.
By James Munson
October 20, 2008 2:53 PM | Link to this
Question: When did Rocco Baldelli fall into the “Power Hitting outfielder” category? The poll on the braves page on ajc is sayin we want him more than Manny, Abreu and someone else I think. Lets not take a risk on another injury prone guy please!!
By flange1
October 20, 2008 2:55 PM | Link to this
Random,
Thanks for catching my typo! I do believe that DOB reported here he asked Escobar about Pena leaving and Escobar “shrugged his shoulders” and said it was no big deal and that he had not spoken with Pena since he left the team (the interview was 3-5 days after Pena had left the team.)
DOB, am I correct or am I dreaming?
By Wayne
October 20, 2008 2:56 PM | Link to this
rammer I suspect if you take Greene and his 6.5 million salary off their hands, the price would actually fall for Peavy a bit.
By Roman Gal
October 20, 2008 2:58 PM | Link to this
*Rohrbough, Hanson, Hernandez for Peavy? Would that do it? * Reader
No. They won’t (or shouldn’t) trade Hanson and Rohrbough.
By Shaun
October 20, 2008 3:05 PM | Link to this
Oh, and stolen bases, avg and OBP — yeah, those are of utmost importance when comparing a second baseman to one of the premier home-run hitters in baseball.
That’s why Adam Dunn will get significant consideration for MVP, huh? That’s why Carlos Delgado will get more consideration than David Wright or Carlos Beltran or Jose Reyes?
If the voters rank Howard second, in order to be consistent, they must rank Delgado pretty high…ahead of his likely more deserving teammates.
By DAP
October 20, 2008 3:07 PM | Link to this
anders i guess finding rays fans on a braves blog is about as rare as finding mets fans….
By Random
October 20, 2008 3:11 PM | Link to this
Shaun — Allow me to rephrase a bit to sharpen my point a little:
Hits do not win ball games, doubles do not win ball games, times on base do not win ball games, on-base percentage does not win ball games, batting average does not win ball games, defense does not win ball games, baserunning does not win ball games — RUNS win ball games.
All of those others may be excellent contributors, predictors or indicators of how many runs a team MIGHT produce (or might not allow), but when you can look at actual runs actually produced you don’t need to look at secondary indicators or predictors.
By Efrim
October 20, 2008 3:11 PM | Link to this
Kevin Goldstein, from Baseball Prospectus, had a nice little piece in his Monday Ten Pack about Tommy Hanson:
I remain massively confused as to why Hanson doesn’t get talked about when most discuss the top pitching prospects in the game. For some reason, he’s relegated to Group B, on the fringes of the discussion. That’s despite the fact that he had one of the most dominating seasons put up by any pitcher at any level this year, and he also proved himself at Double-A, and he now has the scouting reports to match the numbers. Now, he’s proving he belongs in that group in Arizona as well. With nine strikeouts in four no-hit innings on Saturday, Hanson extended his scoreless streak to 8 2/3 innings in three games, during which he’s allowed just one hit and struck out 14. Right-handers against him are 0-fo-20 with 12 strikeouts. Don’t make the same mistake as other observers—this guy is one of the best out there.
By ncscoots
October 20, 2008 3:11 PM | Link to this
As far as the number of innings Peavy has thrown, I daresay John Smoltz logged as many, or more, during his first six full seasons. That didn’t stop him from throwing another 2000 or so afterward. And Peavy has never had one of those 260-inning years, so it’s not as if he has been overworked in any one season.
By Shaun
October 20, 2008 3:15 PM | Link to this
Gotta produce when team needs you most to get most “valuable” player consideration.
Kind of like throughout half a season?
By don
October 20, 2008 3:18 PM | Link to this
From the sounds of a lot of these posts, it is obvious that many didn’t learn from the Teixeira fiasco.
Only a fool would empty what is left of the prospect pool to get Peavy who may or may not produce.
By David O'Brien
October 20, 2008 3:19 PM | Link to this
Just read an outstanding story on Barry Zito in the September issue of Play, the New York Times Sports Magazine. Written by Pat Jordan. If you can still find it online, well worth the read. Very interesting stuff….
HANSON is PLAYER OF WEEK IN AFL:
This should be posted soon on our website:
Braves pitching prospect Tommy Hanson was named Pitcher of the Week for the second week of the Arizona Fall League.
Hanson, a right-hander playing for the Mesa Solar Sox, won both his starts and allowed only one hit in 6.2 innings. In his last start on Saturday, Hanson struck out eight of the first nine batters he faced.
Overall, he has allowed just the one hit in 8.2 innings, a one-out single in his first start. He is 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA, and has 14 strikeouts with three walks.
Hanson, who pitched at Riverside (Calif.) Community College, was the Braves’ 22nd-round selection in the 2005 draft.
After starting 2008 at Class A Myrtle Beach, where he was 3-1 with a 0.90 ERA in seven starts, Hanson was promoted to Class AA Mississippi. He went 8-4 with a 3.03 ERA in 18 starts, including a no-hitter. He struck out 114 in 98 innings while allowing only 70 hits.
Beginning with his 14-strikeout no-hitter June 25 vs. Birmingham, Hanson went on a 5-1, 1.41 ERA tear in which he recorded 79 strikeouts in 57 innings.
For the season, Hanson led full-season minor league pitchers with a 2.41 ERA and 163 strikeouts.
(By the way, he throws a 91-94 mph fastball with excellent life, and he honed a devastating slider that he first broke out for game action in that no-hitter.)
By jrjags
October 20, 2008 3:21 PM | Link to this
Here’s a Baseball America update from the AFL. I think Hanson has to be edging up toward the Heyward-Teheran status.
Atlanta prospect Tommy Hanson turned in his third straight dominating performance on Saturday for the Mesa Solar Sox against visiting Peoria Saguaros. Hanson struck out eight of the first nine batters he faced. The only Saguaro to reach base during Hanson’s four-inning stint was Mike Baxter (Padres), who was hit by a pitch with one out in the fourth.
Hanson’s performance drew raves from players and coaches on the Saguaro bench, including several players who had faced him earlier this season in the Carolina League.
The 22-year-old right-hander has not given up a run in his first three starts and has yielded only one hit in 8 2/3 innings with 14 strikeouts.
Hanson was helped in his latest start by teammate Matt Young (Braves), who broke open a scoreless tie in the fourth inning by driving in three runs with an inside the park homerun off Saguaro reliever Justin Fiske (Cardinals). Baxter attempted a diving catch of Young’s sharp line drive, and the ball rolled all the way to the center field fence while Young easily circled the bases.
By Shaun
October 20, 2008 3:22 PM | Link to this
I suppose Mark Teixeira deserves almost as much consideration as anyone for Braves MVP. He was only three homers off the team lead and second in RBI. Apparently that’s what matters most. Or maybe Kelly Johnson should be the team MVP since he hit a bunch of homers and had a bunch of RBI after the All-Star break. Apparently performing well in half a season is a key criterion, too.
By BA
October 20, 2008 3:25 PM | Link to this
No self-respecting grown man should use the phrase “yum-yum”. But then, no self-respecting man would root for the choking dog Mutts, either.
“Yum-yum”? queer.
By Caleb
October 20, 2008 3:26 PM | Link to this
DOB, if Escobar or Kelly Johnson was included in a deal for Peavy, which one of the two would you prefer giving up if you were making the trade?
By David O'Brien
October 20, 2008 3:29 PM | Link to this
If the voters rank Howard second, in order to be consistent, they must rank Delgado pretty high…ahead of his likely more deserving teammates.Shaun
No, they must not. And won’t. Because, see, voters use judgment and weigh factors as they judge to be important. They’re not slaves to numbers, like some stat-obsessed observers who don’t take into account timing and the human element, but instead rely far too much on things like VORP.
Welcome to the real world, Shaun. Now go back to park-adjusting your own personal MVP list. Maybe you can e-mail Chase an award of some kind.
By David O'Brien
October 20, 2008 3:30 PM | Link to this
Nothing against him. I’d rather have Howard than Casey Kotchman. Shaun
Brilliant. That’s insight we only get from you.
By BA
October 20, 2008 3:35 PM | Link to this
Shaun, look up the word “intangibles”- They exist.
By Shaun
October 20, 2008 3:36 PM | Link to this
Random, so outs do not have a vital relationship to run scoring? Try telling that to a major league pitcher.
By David O'Brien
October 20, 2008 3:36 PM | Link to this
Random, actually I did ask Yunel about it, twice. The day it happened, he didn’t want to talk about it. He was upset.
A little over a week later, I asked him if he’d talked to Pena since he was traded. He had not. He wasn’t worried about that, only about getting healthy.
Yunel speaks very little English and declined doing most interviews, even with a translator, after his injuries began to mount. He got frustrated being out of the lineup and not being able to stay healthy.
But honestly, other than you (or whoever it was that brought it up on the blog), it’s not been an issue discussed anywhere I know of.
No one in the clubhouse (his teammates, including a couple others who are close to him), wouldn’t give any credence to Pena’s absence affecting Yunel’s performance. I asked two or three players and a member of the coaching staff. They all scoffed.
But let’s talk about it for the next year or two, OK. It’s really important.
By Efrim
October 20, 2008 3:37 PM | Link to this
I think the Padres want Yunel Escobar over Kelly Johnson. Johnson is a free agent sooner, and the Padres already have a 2b prospect in house, Matt Antonelli(Although his star has fallen a bit). Not to mention, I think they have soured a bit on Khalil Greene.
By Steve from OH
October 20, 2008 3:37 PM | Link to this
So…I think we can tell the Pads to forget about Hanson, eh?
By Dan
October 20, 2008 3:38 PM | Link to this
DOB
Think it is possible that the Braves are packaging Escobar, KJ, Hanson and Gorkys for Peavy, Khalil Greene, and a couple of prospects?
Someone on “talking chop” claims to have a source who provided this information.
By Shaun Still Doesn't Get It
October 20, 2008 3:38 PM | Link to this
Howard led his team to the payoffs down the stretch - Utley didn’t.
By Random
October 20, 2008 3:44 PM | Link to this
Shaun: “I’ll take the guy who got on base a lot more, has almost as much power, is the better baserunner and is the better defensive player. You can take the guy who racks up homeruns and RBI in between making outs more often than Adam LaRoche.”
I think I may have identified the problem in your approach.
OF COURSE, I’d also “take the guy who got on base a lot more, has almost as much power, is the better baserunner and is the better defensive player” — FOR NEXT YEAR. Odds are that he’d be more valuable to your team than “the guy who racks up homeruns and RBI in between making outs more often than Adam LaRoche.”
But we’re not trying to predict next year — we are looking at what actually happened this year (2008). And this year, Howard seems to have been a more productive hitter than Utley, despite his many flaws and Utley’s manifold statistical superiorities.
All of Utley’s getting on base, etc, this year simply was not as valuable to the Fillies as Howard’s contributions. For all of Utley’s on-base-gettin’ and better baserunnin’, he only scored 8 more runs (7.6% more) than Howard (113 v 105).
And for all of Howard’s out-makin’, he drove in 27 more baserunners (38% more) than Utley (98 v 71), and was 26.9% more productive in so doing.
RUNS win games, not OBP, OPS, etc.
Let me repeat in closing: OF COURSE, I’d also “take the guy who got on base a lot more, has almost as much power, is the better baserunner and is the better defensive player” — FOR NEXT YEAR. Odds are that he’d be more valuable to your team than “the guy who racks up homeruns and RBI in between making outs more often than Adam LaRoche.” But we’re not trying to predict next year — we are looking at what actually happened this year (2008).
PS: Anytime you’re ready, you may specifically address the specific points of my 2:12 PM comment. Otherwise, you’ll just seem to be throwing in the towel.
PPS: It just occurred to me — seein’ me and Shaun argue must be for DOB what watching a Fillies-Mets game is like for McFann. (And I’m probably the Brussels sprouts! Ugh, indeed!)
8-)
By David O'Brien
October 20, 2008 3:46 PM | Link to this
ME: Gotta produce when team needs you most to get most �valuable� player consideration.
SHAUN: Kind of like throughout half a season?
ME: Yes, when that half season is the half when the team played its best ball and captured a previously tight three-way division race.
SHAUN: I suppose Mark Teixeira deserves almost as much consideration as anyone for Braves MVP.
ME: No, in large part for precisely the reason stated above: He did not perform at his highest level when the Braves needed him most, early on when they had so many injuries and were falling behind in the standings.
Hey, dude, you just view the game differently than most in the game and on the periphery of the game. That’s all. Really not a reason to lose your bearings.
You have a solely sabermetrics-defined point of view. See, sabermetricians have a very prominent and valuable role in evaluating talent for clubs, but your problem is you don’t have the ability, or should I say willingness, to weigh other factors in, to use numbers as part of an overall evaluation process.
You eliminate the human element from the game. Fatal flaw that undermines your credibility in many cases, like this one.
You will never be a very good judge of the real game and how it’s played because of that.
When awards are announced, year after year, you will always be left scratching your head, flailing at windmills, patting yourself on the back and wondering why others aren’t as smart as you.
Same thing when the biggest contracts are given to the power hitters, you won’t understand why. Why won’t Utley be paid like Ryan Howard over the next 10 years? Why, why, why?
Because, Shaun, in the real baseball world things don’t work like they do in your fantasy-like cocoon of player evaluation.
By Shaun
October 20, 2008 3:46 PM | Link to this
DOB, the real world where outs have little or no relationship to run scoring? Where defense and baserunning have no influence on the game? What a wonderful world.
By Efrim
October 20, 2008 3:47 PM | Link to this
Dan
I saw that too. I doubt the Braves would trade their starting middle infield, best pitching prospect and potential CF for Peavy. Isn’t Greene more of a salary dump? I can’t imagine he would have too much value for 6.5 million.
By Jim
October 20, 2008 3:48 PM | Link to this
If some combination including one or more of Escobar, Hanson, Schafer, KJ is needed from the Braves to make a possible Peavy deal happen, what are the names of the players that the Astros and Cardinals would have to include in a package for Peavy? What other trades might Towers be tempted to take from these other teams that the Braves would have to meet or top? Can we compare alternative Brave offers with the competing offers from other teams in the mix?
By Steve from OH
October 20, 2008 3:49 PM | Link to this
Dan, not only does that trade make zero sense, but we’d be the losers of that deal, no matter what prospects come back. We’ basically be trading our (very good) starting SS and 2B, and a future #2 for…Jake Peavy and change. No.
No offense, man, but I just think that is dumb.
By Shaun
October 20, 2008 3:56 PM | Link to this
Random, you are under the assumption that making an out is meaningless to run production, creation, whatever you want to call it. But outs cost a team. Outs eventually run out, so every out a hitter makes one on offense decreases his team’s scoring. Every time a hitter gets on base, he’s increasing his team’s chance to score, even if he’s not the actual player who scores or drives in the run.
Howard led his team to the payoffs down the stretch - Utley didn’t.
Pujols didn’t and he should and probably will win it.
By flange1
October 20, 2008 3:56 PM | Link to this
The Peavy trade (to be) has been very entertaining! It is fun to try to come up with packages that might be tempting for the Braves and for the Padres.
The more I think about it and read, I think Escobar will be the centerpiece of the trade.
I think the Braves will try to add Redmond and Medlin and think that is enough, but the Padres will ask for more.
The Braves will offer JoJo and the Padres will want more.
The Braves will offer Marek and the Padres will stall.
I think they will have to include Rorbaugh to get the deal done.
By Efrim
October 20, 2008 3:58 PM | Link to this
Jim
Among the teams that Jake Peavy mentioned he would like to be traded too, the Cardinals and Dodgers are the only teams that would be able to meet their demands. But the Braves could beat either of their deals. Cubs and Astros have nothing to offer that would make any sense.
Obviously, if Peavy were willing to go to the AL, the Red Sox and Rangers would have plenty to offer. But it has already been stated that Peavy doesn’t want to go there.
By Dan
October 20, 2008 4:00 PM | Link to this
I agree, just wanted to see if there was any validity to that rumor.
By Deep Throat
October 20, 2008 4:04 PM | Link to this
Escobar AND Johnson may be the only realistic-sounding trade for Peavy I wouldn’t do. No way you trade them both and count on some nightmare duo of Infante-Prado in the middle infield.
Aside from that: GET PEAVY WREN!
By Shaun
October 20, 2008 4:05 PM | Link to this
Random, by your logic, Chipper should not even finish in the top 30 in the NL MVP voting.
Chipper ranked 41st in the NL in RBI and 36th in runs. He ranks 37th in Others Batted In Percentage.
Are you going to concede that Chipper was not one of the 30 most valuable players in the league?
“I think I may have identified the problem in your approach.” You think outs (among other things) have no relationship to runs or value.
By Random
October 20, 2008 4:08 PM | Link to this
Shaun: “so outs do not have a vital relationship to run scoring? Try telling that to a major league pitcher.”
I’m not sure what you mean, but I’ll take a stab at it with this counterexample.
Hits have a very “vital” relationship to scoring. Walks/OBP also have a very “vital” relationship to scoring, as does baserunning, and slugging.
But hits are not runs. Walks, OBP, OPS, steals, etc, are not runs.
Runs are runs.
Why look at stuff that only has a relationship to runs, “vital” though that relationship might be, when you can actually look at runs?
We’re not trying to predict anything here, whether based on vital relationships or not, we’re trying to look at what actually happened.
And based on what actually happened, Howard seems to have been more valuable to the Fillies than Utley.
“so outs do not have a vital relationship to run scoring? Try telling that to a major league pitcher.”
Another stab — you know full well that there are many situations in baseball when a manager would delightfully trade an out for a run.
“so outs do not have a vital relationship to run scoring? Try telling that to a major league pitcher.”
What DO you mean? I think I still might not be getting it.
DOB: “But let’s talk about it for the next year or two, OK. It’s really important.”
Thanks for the history; bear in mind, though — it wasn’t me who brought it up.
Shaun: “I suppose Mark Teixeira deserves almost as much consideration as anyone for Braves MVP.”
Gettin’ kinda p!ssy, aren’t you? Do you always stoop to words when the numbers let you down?
(Just Kidding, okay?)
Efrim: “Kevin Goldstein, from Baseball Prospectus, had a nice little piece in his Monday Ten Pack about Tommy Hanson:
“I remain massively confused as to why Hanson doesn’t get talked about when most discuss the top pitching prospects in the game. For some reason, he’s relegated to Group B, on the fringes of the discussion.”
That may be due to what I think is the Braves general practice of really talking up the prospects they are looking to trade, and not talking to much about the keepers.
By Shaun
October 20, 2008 4:09 PM | Link to this
Let’s see, Chipper ranked lower than 30th in the league in RBI total, run total, RBI by percentage. I guess he didn’t produce runs very well. Also he failed to lead his team to the playoffs down the stretch. How will he ever finish in the top 10 in the MVP voting?
By ncscoots
October 20, 2008 4:10 PM | Link to this
Hanson just doesn’t get it, does he? Doesn’t he realize that every scoreless inning he throws in the AFL just makes the Braves more reluctant to give him up and the Padres more insistent on getting him? Jeez. Somebody tell the kid to get with the program and give up a dang run or two, fercrissake, and stop making it so tough on everybody.
And maybe it’s time to retire the “Tommy” moniker for this guy. I believe he’s about shown that he’s just a little bit grown up. “Tom” or “Thomas” or “Stud-Monster” might do, but let that pre-pubescent “Tommy” adios. He’s outgrown it.
By Efrim
October 20, 2008 4:12 PM | Link to this
Flange1
I think they will have to include Rorbaugh to get the deal done.
Before this season started, people said Cole Rohrbough had more upside than Hanson. After going through 2008, I think Hanson passed him on the depth chart. Rohrbough is still damn good. A lot of injuries derailed him this year, but he is probably right there with Hanson. Knuckle-curves are tough to control, so I am guessing that might be another reason Hanson passed him, as that knuckle-curve is Rohrbough’s best pitch.
Maybe that might be what gets the Padres to lay off Hanson. Adding Rohrbough to the mix might get the deal done. Also, it depends how they view Tyler Flowers. If they view him as Catcher, then I am not sure why they wouldn’t want him included. If they think he can’t hack it at Catcher in the bigs, then he probably doesn’t make much sense because of Kyle Blanks presense in the system……as well as Adrian Gonzalez(obviously).
By David O'Brien
October 20, 2008 4:12 PM | Link to this
ME: Gotta produce when team needs you most to get most valuable player consideration.
SHAUN: Kind of like throughout half a season?
ME: Yes, when that half season is the half where the team played its best ball and prevailed in a previously tight three-way division race.
SHAUN: I suppose Mark Teixeira deserves almost as much consideration as anyone for Braves MVP.
ME: No, in large part for precisely the reason stated above: He did not perform at his highest level when the Braves needed him most, early on when they had so many injuries and were falling behind in the standings.
Hey, Shaun, you just view the game differently than most in the game and on the periphery of the game. That’s all. Really not a reason to lose your bearings.
You have a solely sabermetrics-defined point of view. See, sabermetricians have a very prominent and valuable role in evaluating talent for clubs, but your problem is you don’t have the ability, or should I say willingness, to weigh other factors in, to use numbers as part of an overall evaluation process.
You eliminate the human element from the game. Fatal flaw that undermines your credibility in many cases, like this one.
You will never be a very good judge of the real game and how it’s played because of that.
When awards are announced, year after year, you will always be left scratching your head, flailing at windmills, patting yourself on the back and wondering why others aren’t as smart as you.
Same thing when the biggest contracts are given to the power hitters, you won’t understand why. Why won’t Utley be paid like Ryan Howard over the next 10 years? Why, why, why?
Because, Shaun, in the real baseball world things don’t work like they do in your fantasy-like cocoon of player evaluation.
By McFann O –[brr!]
October 20, 2008 4:14 PM | Link to this
Random PPS: It just occurred to me — seein’ me and Shaun argue must be for DOB what watching a Fillies-Mets game is like for McFann.
LOL! You’re prob’ly right!
; )
By sri
October 20, 2008 4:16 PM | Link to this
Damn.. Shaun you are relentless are’nt you.. Let me add some more fuel to the fire.. From what I understand, if you were to pick 8 players to fill out a batting lineup, you would want them to be all Chase Utley rather than Ryan Howard. I think we all agree with that (even Random). But we are not talking about such a hypothetical team.
Would you reverse Utley and Howard in the batting order? I agree with what Random said in his 3:44 post.
By Shaun
October 20, 2008 4:16 PM | Link to this
voters use judgment and weigh factors as they judge to be important. They’re not slaves to numbers, like some stat-obsessed observers who don’t take into account timing and the human element
Basically the voters like to keep the term “value” vague so that they can’t be proven wrong (or right).
By Efrim
October 20, 2008 4:18 PM | Link to this
Random
That may be due to what I think is the Braves general practice of really talking up the prospects they are looking to trade, and not talking to much about the keepers.
I don’t think the Braves need to talk up Hanson. He is one of the best pitching prospects in the game, hands down.
By mbatl
October 20, 2008 4:19 PM | Link to this
Shaun, did you agree with Rollins as MVP last year?
By flange1
October 20, 2008 4:19 PM | Link to this
Shaun, Random and others,
Please continue your discussions, but why get so worked up about MVP awards? It is like All Star voting and Oscar voting, it is subjective!
If you are trying to convince each other how the award voters SHOULD vote and the methodology they SHOULD use, fine.
If you are trying to determine a ranking of the best players in the game based on certain criteria, fine.
But to argue about the stupid MVP award that is voted on by subjective writers that vote for who they want because that is what they want to do, isn’t that just arguing for the sake of arguing?
By David O'Brien
October 20, 2008 4:21 PM | Link to this
Just got off phone with Peavy’s agent. Nothing happening right now, as far as Padres approaching them about any imminent deal or whatnot. Peavy’s been out of town and so has the agent, and they haven’t talked at length about it yet since all this stuff happened last week, when Padres made it clear things had changed and that they’d listen to offers for Peavy.
By Shaun Still Doesn't Get It
October 20, 2008 4:21 PM | Link to this
Howard led his team to the payoffs down the stretch - Utley didn’t.
Pujols didn’t and he should and probably will win it.
Your entire freaking mind - numbing rant has been Howard vs Utley - why do you bring this up? Dodgeball anyone?
BTW - I deliberately typed PAYOFFS because that is what making it to the PLAYOFFS entails. Without Howard’s production during the stretch - his team may NOT have made it.
By Original Jon
October 20, 2008 4:22 PM | Link to this
Hey, I dont think I would lose much sleep if Morton was added in a deal for Peavy. How bout Schafer, Morton, Yunel and Scott Diamond for Peavy and Greene.
Padres get a Major League Pitcher in Morton, middle infield help in Yunel, one of our top prospects in Schafer and Scott Diamond went 15-and-3 with a 2.89 ERA between Rome and Myrtle Beach this year. Not a bad package really, if they want some more, give them Medlen and call it a day.
By Jim
October 20, 2008 4:23 PM | Link to this
Effrim,
The question is who on these teams would be targeted by the Padres. Would a Dodger package have to include Kershaw or Kemp? Would the Cardinals structure a deal around Rasmus? If we compare the names being discussed from the other teams, we might better comne up with packages from the Braves that would be competetive and may not include Hanson or Yunel. I don’t think the Cardinals have a young pitcher almost ML ready that compares with Hanson. I’m not sure what’s in the Dodger System after Kershaw. Are Rohrbaugh, Medlen, Locke, etc. equivalent to the top minor league pitching talent in the Cardinal or Dodger system?
By jrjags
October 20, 2008 4:25 PM | Link to this
There’s no way the Braves would package both Kelly and Yunel. The Peavy trade is about making the team competitive immediately. There’s no way you can trade the middle ifield and upgrade the team.
If the Padres were to want Yunel in the deal, what about making Infante the everyday shortstop? Prado can be a viable backup at 2B, SS, and 3B. Infante doesn’t have a great bat, but it’s enough for a NL shortstop.
By flange1
October 20, 2008 4:26 PM | Link to this
Efrim,
EXACTLY! Last year at this time Rorbaugh was the guy we were talking about, Hanson had slipped a bit.
Rorbaugh got hurt this year and slipped a bit in the press.
I sure don’t want to give him up either, but I think the Padres will push for our second best upper level pitcher.
I would love to make the deal with Esobar, Redmond, Medlin and Tyler Flowers. Heck I would change G Hernandez for Flowers if pushed and we got back K Greene too.
Maybe I have read too much into Towers remarks, but I think he would rather have the pitchers than Flowers or G Hernandez.
By Original Jon
October 20, 2008 4:28 PM | Link to this
Or maybe the Pads will take this offer for Peavy and Greene. (only reason I keep mentioning Greene is because the Pads are going to want anyone who takes Peavy to take Greene in a deal as well to free up more money, also they are looking for a middle infielder and for some reason, Yunel seems most likely to go.)
Pads get: Yunel Escobar, Jordan Schafer, Cole Rohrbough, Scott Diamond and Charlie Morton.
Braves get: Peavy and Greene
What do you think of that DOB
By Shaun
October 20, 2008 4:33 PM | Link to this
Random, so if runs are runs, please tell me why Chipper is probably going to finish at least in the top 10 in the NL MVP voting? Chipper who doesn’t rank in the top 30 in RBI, Runs, RBI percentages.
I can see what you are saying about run potential versus actual runs. But it seems the voters aren’t going to count potential versus actual runs against Chipper among others players.
Here’s how I view it (and how the voters view it for some players, it seems): MVP is an individual award. If a player gets on base a lot and slugs well, it’s not his fault that his teammates don’t take advantage by scoring him or getting on base in front of him.
But the voters are inconsistent here: They are going to refuse to put a player like Utley higher than Howard it seems because of actual vs. potential runs yet they are going to give Chipper lots of votes for potential runs (if indeed they are voting for Howard because of homers and RBI).
By Efrim
October 20, 2008 4:35 PM | Link to this
Jim
Dodgers aren’t going to be trading Clayton Kershaw. That is a certainty. Cards have Rasmus, who is considered by most, to be better than Jordan Schafer, in terms of upside. They don’t have much pitching though, which is why they don’t really match up.
Dodgers have James McDonald, who probably is equal to Tommy Hanson. They also have Chin-Lung Hu, who is a SS. I would think they could build a package around them. But with so many changes upcoming for the Dodgers, I am not sure they can get fully involved with a Peavy trade. Hu should probably be kept if they don’t plan on signing Furcal.
By Random
October 20, 2008 4:35 PM | Link to this
Shaun: “you are under the assumption that making an out is meaningless to run production, creation, whatever you want to call it.”
No, no, no, Shaun — I’m not assuming anything.
There’s nothing to assume — we are not trying to predict future performance, we are looking at what actually happened in 2008.
No assumptions — just post mortems. The Fillies made over 4000 outs this season — we can take a look at every one and analyze it. We can look at every Fillies baserunner — who scored, who didn’t and why.
We don’t have to guess — we don’t have to assume. We certainly don’t have to rely on predictive statistics when we have facts to examine.
Howard drove in 20.29% of his baserunners; Utley drove in 15.99% of his. In about the same number of plate appearances, Utley scored only 8 more runs than Howard, while Howard drove in 27 more baserunners than Utley (38 more RBI).
No need to assume, or predict, or discuss increased or decreased chances of this or that — just study and compare the actual record of their actual performances. No need to guess — you can look it up. Evey game, every plate appearance. Then decide who was more valuable.
“But outs cost a team.”
Outs do not lose ball games — each team gets the same number of outs (if they need them all).
RUNS win ballgames. There is no need to look at the indirect relationship between outs and decreased chances of getting runs when you can look at actual runs.
The games have already been played — no predictive relationships are required to evaluate past performance.
By TommyP
October 20, 2008 4:37 PM | Link to this
Lew and DOB: We agree to disagree.
I don’t want to gut the farm (again!) for one player…with that one player being the one pitcher that scouts would make the poster boy for “violent mechanics.”
Go make a play for Sabathia and save the prospects if you HAVE to have an ace.
I just prefer spending that $40+ million on filling several holes with quality players and still having most of the Braves future in the Atlanta farm system.
Lew: I don’t think you read my whole Chris Young debate with the way you spoke of some stats.
You asked about this year’s stats. Again, he was hit in the face by a ball off the bat of Pujols and then had a strained forearm not long after returning.
Road ERA was better on the road 2 out of his 4 years.
Is he an ace? Never said he was. Is Scott Kazmir an ace?
But he’s a quality arm that looks to have a lot more mileage left.
I want to have a quality arm in slots 1-5, not just 1 or 2.
Hey…if y’all are crazy about throwing away another king’s ransom for a guy that is destined to blow his arm out and cripple the financial flexibility of the team, to each his own.
I just would rather get quality arms with added upside and not quite the huge salaries.
Part of dealing for players is projecting.
That’s MY “real world.” (a waste of keystrokes? that’s like the pot….er, nevermind)
By Josh
October 20, 2008 4:38 PM | Link to this
Original Jon I’m not DOB but I think that’s about what it will take, in my layman’s opinion. If it’s more I think Wren moves on to something else
By Anders
October 20, 2008 4:42 PM | Link to this
Efrim
How about Greene and Peavy for Hughes and Cano with some other stuff on both sides? Yes, Greene would be a salary dump and isn’t that why small market teams actually do like that the Yanks exist from time to time?
Now I know Peavy didn’t include the Yanks on his list but Towers can say “Oh well, I’m not giving you away. My best deal is to the Yanks. I’ll see you down in the Gaslamp district this spring and you can be the core of our 3 year rebuilding project. Have a nice Christmas”.
Then Peavy can relent on his team choices or one of his reported present selected suitors could up the ante. The Padres lose nothing for this play. They still have Peavy to deal when they want.That’s how I’d play it if I was Towers.
By cameron
October 20, 2008 4:44 PM | Link to this
I still think that the Braves should Send Kotchman, Escobar, Rohrborough, Medlin, Morton(or a package similar that that) to the Padres for Peavy, Gonzalez, Greene. Sign Derek Lowe. Sign Adam Dunn/or Magglio Ordonez. Sign Will Ohman. Sign Mike Hampton. And go win the World Series.
Lineup!
1. Anderson/Schafer
2. Johnson
3. Jones
4. Dunn/Ordonez
5. Gonzalez
6. McCann
7. Francoeur
8. Lillibridge/ Greene
9. Peavy
Bench!
Omar Infante
Brent Lillibridge/ Kahlil Greene
Greg Norton
Martin Prado
Matt Diaz
Gregor Blanco
Etc.
Rotation!
1. Jake Peavy
2. Derek Lowe
3. Jair Jurjjens
4. Oliver Perez
5. Tommy Hanson
By August You Have
1. Peavy
2. Hudson
3. Lowe
4. Jurrjens
5. Perez
Bullpen!
John Smoltz
Peter Moylan
Will Ohman
Rafael Soriano
Mike Conzalez
Ect.
Think of that team. No one could stop the Braves. The pitching would be unreal. Peavy, Lowe, Jurrjens are great. Perez can be great. And Hanson could be ready to step up and show his ace form. By august you throw in Hudson and we are unbeatable. And then the lineup with Jones, Dunn/Ordonez, Gonzalez, McCann, Francoeur is a power threat 3-7. If Johnson can show the same as he did the last couple months of the season we could be REALLY solid 2-7. Thats almost a 100% chance these guys come up in the 9th inning if we are down.
And if we cant get Adrian Gonzalez from the Padres just get Greene and Peavy, and replace Kotchman in the linup and its still a great lineup. But I really want Gonzalez.
By My Sources Tell Me
October 20, 2008 4:46 PM | Link to this
My inside, exclusive sources tell me that the random nobody blogger on TalkingChop.com telling of a specific Braves’ offer for Jake Peavy being “on the table” has no real or credible sources and made it all up.
That is all.
By flange1
October 20, 2008 4:47 PM | Link to this
TommyP,
I hear what you are saying, but who would you choose to spend the money on?
Josh and Original Jim, If it takes that much to get Peavy, I don’t thing the Braves will do that deal. They will not give up Escobar, Morton and Schafer in any deal. Sorry, I don’t think they will! :) (Really, I can’t see into the future!! LOL)
By Efrim
October 20, 2008 4:47 PM | Link to this
Flange1
I think we have to include someone with upside like Rohrbough in this deal. If pitching is what the Padres desire and we don’t want to give up Hanson, then we’ll have to give up Rohrbough and others, I would think. Plus SD said they wanted pitching that would be ready for next year. So I am sure Morton would have to go.
By Jim
October 20, 2008 4:49 PM | Link to this
Shaun,
I can’t get excited about who is going to be the MVP this year, but I doubt if Chipper finishes in the top 10. Those ahead of him in the voting might include: Pujols, Howard, Utley, Soto, Soriano, Delgado, Wright, Beltran, Braun, Fielder, CC Sabathia, Manny, Martin, Webb, Berkman, Holliday, Santana, Lidge, H. Ramirez. Chipper’s lack of runs produced and the Braves’ miserable record will weigh against him. I would not be surprised if McCann got the most MVP consideration (little) of any Brave.
By BravesFan79
October 20, 2008 4:52 PM | Link to this
Cherokee: what are you doing back in the south, i thought we kicked your azzez to the desert out west. Don’t worry man, next time im out that way ill buy some hemp necklaces from you to help you and and family out.
By Efrim
October 20, 2008 4:53 PM | Link to this
Anders
Peavy is getting traded before 2010. His salary starts to get higher and the Padres need to payroll. It would be of the Padres best interest to deal Peavy either this offseason, during the 2009 season, or after next season. But I am not sure Peavy’s value will ever be higher than it is right now, so I think Towers realizes this and will deal him in the next month.
By Wayne
October 20, 2008 4:57 PM | Link to this
Original Jon I think that is too much, but what do I know?
My brain hurts from thinking too much about Jake Peavy, and what it would take to get him from the Padres. I think from this point on, I will just wait and see if Frank Wren calls me for my opinion. Otherwise, I will just wait for them to “git ‘er done”.
By Shaun
October 20, 2008 4:59 PM | Link to this
You eliminate the human element from the game. Fatal flaw that undermines your credibility in many cases, like this one.
How am I eliminating the human element? You and others continue to criticize without explanation.
That’s just a convenient way to get around having anyone answer for the concept of who is most valuable.
Last time I checked it’s a human that I’m saying is not as valuable as his teammate who will likely finish behind him in the voting. It’s a human that made outs more often and wasn’t as good at playing defense or running the bases. So how am I removing the human element?
By Wayne
October 20, 2008 5:02 PM | Link to this
What is all this MVP talk? Heck, everyone knows that David Wright will win the MVP in a landslide. He also is projected to be elected the next president of the US by “wright-in” vote.
Another unfounded rumor has him being the odds on pick for the Cy Young award also.
By Anders
October 20, 2008 5:02 PM | Link to this
Cameron
Just the sheer write down costs for the existing players jerseys in the Braves store at the Ted makes your 4:44 post financially impractical for the Braves!
By Random
October 20, 2008 5:03 PM | Link to this
flange1: “But to argue about the stupid MVP award that is voted on by subjective writers that vote for who they want because that is what they want to do, isn’t that just arguing for the sake of arguing?”
Nah, me & Shaun aren’t arguing about the MVP award (though DOB and Shaun and others seem to be).
Me & Shaun are arguing about how to evaluate a player’s performance and his value to the team in winning ball games.
I think it’s worth it — it’s not just Ars gratia artis type arguing. I think we’re getting somewhere. We’ll see.
ShAan: “‘I think I may have identified the problem in your approach.’ You think outs (among other things) have no relationship to runs or value.”
The analytical tools you are using are appropriate for predicting future performance based on past performance — however, they are not appropriate in measuring and evaluating actual past performance.
So, I guess I’ll tentatively concede to your accusation — “outs (among other things) have no relationship to runs or value” WHEN EVALUATING ACTUAL PAST PERFORMANCE AND NOT PREDICTING FUTURE PERFORMANCE.
By Original Jon
October 20, 2008 5:03 PM | Link to this
Cameron Dude, you are living a pipe dream with that Team buddy, no way in he|| that ever happens, never. But keep up the good fight with that dude.
By Braveheart
October 20, 2008 5:03 PM | Link to this
I still think that the Braves should Send Kotchman, Escobar, Rohrborough, Medlin, Morton(or a package similar that that) to the Padres for Peavy, Gonzalez, Greene.
I just put that trade into MLB2K8 on my XBOX360. Not only did I get rejected. My 360 told me I am quite possibly a ‘tard.
By Josh P.
October 20, 2008 5:05 PM | Link to this
flange1 hahaha here I was expecting a psychic report of the trade. That scenario in discussion, to me, is right on the fence of too much/just right. It would be hard to make that decision. As has been said many times, I don’t envy Mr. Wren!
By Original Jon
October 20, 2008 5:06 PM | Link to this
Wayne That is actually a good stand to take, I dont blame ya one bit.
By Mike
October 20, 2008 5:08 PM | Link to this
First…Shaun, ur a moron, if you still don’t get it you might want to let it go. Second, everyone please stop suggesting Oliver Perez for the Braves. He’s not very good, melts down once every three starts, and has Boras for an agent. Lastly, everyone needs to chill. The offseason hasn’t even officially started yet, and I hear people talking about how we’re already screwed. With the right moves the Braves will be back in the hunt next year. Peavy would be a hell of a start, but there is much more work to do.
By Lew
October 20, 2008 5:09 PM | Link to this
Twelve Rays fans bound to celebrate much more than 4 million Mets’ fans this Post Season, for sure. Ain’t life a b!tch?
By Anders
October 20, 2008 5:11 PM | Link to this
Efrim
At most I meant trade him by July. But at the very least Towers needs to show some leverage to the market if he wants to up the ante. He puts the brakes on publicly and waits to see how the market and/or Peavy reacts.
Maybe he gets what he’s looking for and makes a quick deal - very possible.
I’m suprised how many on here would willingly give up Escobar. I know he didn’t have the year many expected, but he’s playing one of the toughest positions, especially for a young guy. I still think he’ll be a better version of Alfonso Soriano.
By N8
October 20, 2008 5:11 PM | Link to this
DOB
“Happy Birthday, Tom Petty (58) and Snoop Dogg (37).”
Slow down there big fella. Shaun just emailed me and stated that according to sabermatics, Snoop Dogg is actually 10 years OLDER than Tom Petty.
Weird, huh?
I guess some things just aren’t as the seem.
By David O'Brien
October 20, 2008 5:12 PM | Link to this
Braveheart, you crack me up.
Original Jon, it might take something like that to get it done, just don’t know if Frank’s willing to go that far. Padres have to get a bounty, though, or they completly lose the faith of a fan base already upset that they’re even pondering (leaning toward) trading Peavy.
By Random
October 20, 2008 5:13 PM | Link to this
Shaun — gotta run; will address your 4:33 PM later. (I suspect though that the main reason Chipper’s going to get some MVP votes is because he’s so damn good lookin.)
By BravesFan79
October 20, 2008 5:21 PM | Link to this
So, I suppose the Braves’ fans didn’t deserve jack in 1991? The Braves had already been around for decades before the 91 season. The rays have been around since what…..10 years maybe? The city doesn’t support them and they don’t deserve jack sht. I however give them credit for suckering Stan Kasten of the Nats into taking their garbage… aka Elijah (im gonna beat u 17 year old woman that had my 6th illegitimate child) Dukes.
I guess Black athletes arent helping the fact that overall blacks now leave over 70% of their kids with no fathers.
Carlos Mencia on Kanye (i should be in the bible) lol West.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7pFLa3XHcHM
By Anders
October 20, 2008 5:22 PM | Link to this
Wayne
Ah yes, the requesite David Wright snide remark. Well, since you brought him up let’s review his 2008 numbers. Avg. - .302 , HR’s -33, RBI - 124, OBP - .390.
Top 10 in BA, RBI, BB,SLG, HR, R, OBP, OPS. Not a bad off year if you ask me. Not an MVP for sure but you’d be wetting yourself if you had a 25 year old guy with those numbers.
By Coach (Skip will be missed)
October 20, 2008 5:25 PM | Link to this
Peavy for President, Peavy wears a red cape blue and suit with an S on on it, Peavy for an Oscar award, blah blah blah.
Give me a frigging break already!
By BravesFan79
October 20, 2008 5:28 PM | Link to this
Hey i got a GREAT idea! Lets replace a inexpensive all star caliber SS that hits around .330 with THIS GUY!
.213 10HR 35 RB 30 Runs in 2008…..AKA Kahlil Greene
Do yall also suggest we bring back Chris Woodward?? Dont forget about the once a week defensive specialist Corky either!! How could we live without our defensive stopper? lol…
By TDub
October 20, 2008 5:30 PM | Link to this
cameron, put the crack pipe down. Seriously.
By rammerjammer
October 20, 2008 5:32 PM | Link to this
Wayne, “rammer I suspect if you take Greene and his 6.5 million salary off their hands, the price would actually fall for Peavy a bit.”
I hope you’re right. No doubt they’ll want - maybe, insist - on Hanson, but he HAS to be off-limits with his AFL stint and his overall body of work in the minors. Spring training should really be interesting.
Since SD won’t get Hanson (I hope), I was thinking we may have to throw in an extra arm to compensate. None of the pitchers I proposed were “can’t miss,” types, so that risk - combined with taking Greene off their hands - may make the deal more tempting.
I’m sure I’m wrong about exactly who we’d trade along with Escobar - who I think is a lock to go - but I think it would include someone to plug in the rotation now (Reyes?), and 1-2 promising prospects (Medlen, Marek, et al).
Either way, if we can get Peavy - and keep Hanson and Morton - that’s a deal I like.
By flange1
October 20, 2008 5:33 PM | Link to this
Braveheart, Great post at 5:03!
Bravesfan79, you like to bring the same subjects up over and over, dude, get some new material!
Anders, as you say a great “off” year for David Wright. Why are so many folks in NY calling for him to be traded because he chokes in pressure situations? That is a terrible label to give a nice kid. CHOKER… Bummer for you Mets fans and for him.
Random, got it, and your Chipper line at 5:13 is pretty good too!
By P-Town Brave
October 20, 2008 5:36 PM | Link to this
And then there were two
St. Louis Post Dispatch reports:
From Bernie with the Cardinals…
They’re not a serious player for Peavy at this point.
Monday, I talked to multiple sources in the organization who downplayed the Cardinals-Peavy connection. I was told that the Cardinals and Padres have had only one conversation concerning Peavy, and the discussion didn’t lead to any follow-up negotiations. And so the chances of the Cardinals getting Peavy appear to be pretty cold right now.
Why the Cardinals won’t make a serious run for Peavy is left to the imagination.
It could be Peavy’s contract, which isn’t prohibitive, unless Cardinals management believes they’ve already tied up too much long-term money in deals with Chris Carpenter and Kyle Lohse.
It could be the unwillingness to part with the load of prospects that the Padres reportedly are seeking in exchange for Peavy.
Or it could be a combination of both factors.
But for now, the message is clear: don’t expect the Cardinals to make a push for Peavy. The conversation between the Cardinals and Padres didn’t ignite, and now other teams have apparently moved into better position to get him.
By flange1
October 20, 2008 5:44 PM | Link to this
Interesting post on MLBtraderumors, saying the Cards are probably out of the Peavy sweepstakes.
The Astros probably don’t have the players either.
So we have the Braves, the Cubs and the Dodgers.
The Dodgers HATE to trade their prospects.
Do the Cubs have pitching in AAA? I don’t know. I guess they could include the 2 Shauns…..
Maybe Anders is right the Padres need to get Milwaukee, the Yankees and the Sox interested or the Braves could get the same kind of discounted deal the Mets got for Santana.
By Steve from OH
October 20, 2008 5:49 PM | Link to this
Scoots, I’ll go with “stud-monster.” If we give “stud-monster” up, I may have an aneurysm.
Efrim, I’d give up Rohrbough in a deal for Peavy. How about Rohrbough, Hernandez, Flowers and Redmond? Can add Reyes and/or Infante/Prado too if they want another ML-Ready pitcher or an infielder. I know it’s light on ML-ready infielders and pitchers, but they’re getting a pretty doggone good package of prospects in that deal IMO.
Keeps Hanson and Schafer in the system, along with J-Hey, Teheran, Freeman, and Locke. And our middle infield. And Morton.
By McFann O –[brr!]
October 20, 2008 5:49 PM | Link to this
Anders—
Did someone say that was an “off-year”?
OK, maybe we don’t have a 25 year old with those numbers. But we do have a 24 year old with these numbers:
.301 AVG—23 HR—87 RBI—42 2B—.373 OBP—.523 SLG
Not too shabby. I wouldn’t say MVP of the whole league (the RBI should have been a much higher number). But not bad numbers, considering his position.
By Coach (Skip will be missed)
October 20, 2008 5:49 PM | Link to this
Lets see. So far, the Padres want two pitchers, a short stop, center fielder, My right arm, the kitchen sink and the entire Braves farm system. So far…
Get a damn grip, people. What if Peavy gets traded elsewhere? Then what. The Padres have won exactly what with Jake Peavy? two divisions. That sounds about right for the Braves. Our Braves are good at winning their division and not much else. No wait, that all ended back in 2005, didn’t it?
Never mind.
By observer
October 20, 2008 5:52 PM | Link to this
DON’T GIVE UP ESCOBAR PERIOD! Just one more comment. If I am not mistaken (which I am not) back when we played the cubs people were livid that Esco didn’t make a bigger stink when he got hit. But NOW you wan’t to talk about the kids attitude?! Puulleeaasse, its just a lose lose situation with you all. When he plays with passion you bh. When he doesn’t get mad enough you bh. Give it a rest already. Soon to be ALL-STAR PLAYER you are trying to get rid of for a guy that knowing our luck will need surgery by June
By Tomas
October 20, 2008 5:54 PM | Link to this
I hope Wren doesn’t trade Hanson. First i’d trade Freeman, Schafer, Morton, Escobar, Kris Medlen, James Parr, Jo-jo Reyes, Lillibridge, Todd Redmond, Tyler Flowers, Kelly Johnson, Gorkys Hernandez, or Brandon Jones. Hanson, Jurrjens, Tejeran, and Heyward are untouchable.
By Steve from OH
October 20, 2008 6:01 PM | Link to this
Coach:
Yeah, but wouldn’t you if you were the Pads? They’re not going to get that (well, they shouldn’t, anyway). Have you seen my ridiculous lowball offers?
The way it looks, a few teams are dropping out of the rece, so we may get a relative bargain on the whole thing.
By BravesFan79
October 20, 2008 6:18 PM | Link to this
Anders: Kinda sad when one of the few people that also sees what i see in Escobar is a Mets fan.
Escobar is a better offensive player than most of our outfield….and a better defensive SS than most in the NL. Yet everyone cant wait for our offense to resemble the Padres offense. wow. If anything Escobar should be on that untouchable list. The guy has fire in his veins.
By Braveheart
October 20, 2008 6:26 PM | Link to this
An article about the Johnny Cash Flower Pickin’ Festival in Starkville, Mississippi last weekend:
http://www.nytimes.com/2008/10/20/us/20land.html?ref=us&pagewanted=all
By Bobby's Cox
October 20, 2008 6:27 PM | Link to this
Would San Diego bite on Jeff Francoeur?
How’s that for a low ball offer?
By A-ville Ranger
October 20, 2008 6:27 PM | Link to this
The more I think about a trade for Peavy the more wary I am.Given Jake’s history, mechanics, and the fact Padres management know his arm better than our guys do.My inclination would be to look elsewhere.
Would he be on the market if their management had confidence in his ability to pitch 200 innings a year for the balance of his contract ? I don’t believe he would be.
If we jump into this wide-eyed and ignore the obvious we deserve whatever happens.Now IF a cold eyed assessment deems the risk small of continued or worsening arm problems,I’m on board.
By Coach (Skip will be missed)
October 20, 2008 6:31 PM | Link to this
Steve, the Braves are over the damn barrel, so to speak. Kevin Towers is in the drivers seat. I suspect that if this trade does go down, the Braves are going to get raped, much like they did with the Teixeira trade. they are going to give up five players, bare minimum.
And NO, not for one second do I believe the Braves are including Yunel Escobar in this. That is patently crazy.
By Steve from OH
October 20, 2008 6:44 PM | Link to this
Coach, if that is the case, and the Pads want too much, then we walk away. Plain and simple.
By mbatl
October 20, 2008 6:49 PM | Link to this
Coach, how are the Braves “over the damn barrell?” We don’t have to have Peavy; in fact, 2 weeks ago, far as I know, his name wasn’t even on the radar.
I have my opinions about what we should give up, as does every other blogger, but I don’t see how we’re in a bad position just for looking into it. If the Pads demand too much, we simply pass and move on to the next opportunity.
I don’t think Towers is in the drivers’ seat at all, btw. I think he’s under orders to try to move Peavy’s contract off the books, and he has only a handful of potential trading partners. If anyone is over a barrell, it’s him.
By cameron
October 20, 2008 7:10 PM | Link to this
I mean maybe not those exact players are the ones that should be traded. But what im getting at is the Braves should trade who they need to, to get Peavy, Gonzalez, and Greene. If they can get it done. It wouldnt hurt trying atleast. Im just saying the that would be a h*ll of a team. And im not saying it is, or could be reality. Im saying thats what I would love to see. And I dont think any of you could say that team wouldnt be unstopable. Just a dream i guess. You all say the Braves should get Peavy, and another pitcher, so that other pitcher could be Derek Lowe. And getting Oliver Perez for cheap wouldnt be unreasonable either. So the Pitching part could happen right? And we need a powerful LF so Dunn could be that player also? The only part that you all say WILL NOT happen is the part about getting Gonzalez. Throw in a few more prospects and see if you can get it done, it would be worth a shot to see if they would let Gonzalez go for Kotchman and maybe 2 more prospects. So it isnt crazy to think that way. Maybe there isnt a possible way it could happen. But we could get Peavy, Dunn, Lowe, easily and that could be highly possible if the braves paid lowe and dunn enough. Im just saying that would be a good team if it could work. Maybe not.
By Wayne
October 20, 2008 7:11 PM | Link to this
The more I think about how excited I am about our top 20 or so prospects, the less excited I am for the Braves to move any of the elite in a trade for “he who must not be named.”
Let’s go hard for a two year option in left field (KJ for Mags Orgonez) and sign a couple of free agent pitchers. Have a true open audition in the spring, and put the best 5 out there.
I hope one of our pitching acquisitions is a lefty.
By flange1
October 20, 2008 7:14 PM | Link to this
Coach and Bravesfan79,
It seems that both of you are not interested in trading for Peavy.
Cool with me.
So tell me, understanding where the BRaves are right now and that they want to be competitive in 2009,
Who should the Braves target?
In my opinion all of this Peavy discussion is bringing ideas about how to improve the team.
With Hudson gone, we have no #1 and actually no #2 starter, to compete, those slots have to be filled by someone.
ANd Bravesfan79, Halliday is not on the market. The Jays have said that so don’t start there!
By Coach (Skip will be missed)
October 20, 2008 7:18 PM | Link to this
Steve, I’m not totally opposed to the idea of trading for Jake Peavy. I’m more ambivalent to the idea. Peavy is an ace type pitcher, no question. He is also a sore armed hurler coming off his worst full season. His 2.85 ERA was great, but the 10-11 record not so good. In fairness, the Padres offense was even worse than the Braves.
I think that Peavy is the ultimate high risk/high reward pitcher. He could win twenty games or his arm could fall off at any time. Again, in fairness, Peavy is under contract through at least 2012 at a bargain price.
What bothers me isn’t Jake Peavy. It’s the idea that the Braves are somehow expecting this one trade to put them back into playoff contention. Believe me, it won’t.
Right now, the rotation consists of Jair Jurrjens and a bunch of what if’s. The entire outfield is also in question. The offense is dysfunctional and the team has little speed outside of Josh Anderson.
The Braves have money to spend. But it doesn’t address the question of how the team is going to rebuild itself. Jake Peavy will help in the long run but only if the Braves don’t end up trading the wrong players.
In other words, don’t put all your eggs in one basket.
By mbatl
October 20, 2008 7:26 PM | Link to this
What bothers me isn’t Jake Peavy. It’s the idea that the Braves are somehow expecting this one trade to put them back into playoff contention.
Where does that come from? Have the Braves, or even any blogger, suggested that Jake Peavy alone is all the Braves need?
By ncscoots
October 20, 2008 7:38 PM | Link to this
I love it when people who couldn’t load film, let alone understand the viewing thereof, start blathering about the problems with a pitcher’s mechanics. Politicians talking about the price of milk has about as much relevance.
The guy has had one (1) DL stint in his major league career, and, even in that year, made 25+ starts. You want to make a case for a Peavy trade being a bad thing, at least come up with a reason that doesn’t make you look like a complete and utter dolt.
And, Coach, no, I’m not talking about you, LOL.
By THB
October 20, 2008 7:49 PM | Link to this
I think the Padres would bite at a trade for Peavy and Greene if we offered Escobar, Medlen, Flowers, and Gorkys. That’s an excellent ML-proven SS, top 50 prospect in Gorkys, excellent catching prospect, and a very good pitching prospect. Maybe we switch Flowers with Rohrbough. Please remember that we would be able to after Magglio Ordonez if we saved some prospects. Only problem with getting Greene back is it may affect who we get for a FA pitcher and LH reliever. I’d like to see us go after Oliver Perez for cheaper than Lowe, Dempster, or Burnett. Perez could go for something like 12 million.
We will be able to compete next year, but it won’t be easy.
By Billy Walsh
October 20, 2008 8:01 PM | Link to this
I could totally see the brewers getting involved…they have the farm system to do it. If Towers is smart, he will ask for either Hanson or Heyward as the main chip in a trade for Peavy. If this was a Padre blog, what would you guys and gals ask for from the braves? Coach, I totally agree with not gutting the farm for Peavy. However, I dont see free agency as a viable solution either. C.C. is probably going to the West Coast, Lowe will probably be a Yankee, and the rest of the FA class have too many question marks (Burnett is a always hurt, Sheets has the same problem, and Perez is a nut job). That puts the braves in a tough spot. Any trade involving a Peavy or a Greinke(if hes a available) will require quality not quantity. Did anyone hear the new Ryan Adams disc? Will Ari take the head studio job?
By Lew
October 20, 2008 8:20 PM | Link to this
TommyP-Dude, I hear what you’re saying about Chris Young, but the guy is a 5 inning, number four starter-probably a good number four starter, but that’s what he is, nonetheless. We already have a number four starter (or more than one, in all likelihood) and don’t need another. We need a number one and number two starter, or a number one and number three. Young just is not the guy we need.
As for the ERA-Dude, I got the fact that his road ERA for the past three years combined is almost a full run per nine over his home ERA right out of Baseball Reference.Com-check it out if you doubt me. Look to the splits.
Anyway, we need someone (two someones, in fact) who can go 7 innings a start. That is NOT Young, who throughout his career, encompassing 117 starts, averages exactly 5.05 IP per start. Not good enough, sorry.
By Lew
October 20, 2008 8:23 PM | Link to this
Shaun-You’re removing the human element because you act like an Android.
By Shaun
October 20, 2008 8:30 PM | Link to this
Lew, why am I acting like an android? Because I don’t accept this vague and relativistic notion of the meaning of value? Because I rely on facts rather than subjectivity?
By Coach (circa 1992 offseason)
October 20, 2008 8:32 PM | Link to this
I think the Braves would be crazy to go after Greg Maddux! The guy has already pitched over a thousand innings in his career! The ultimate high-risk/high-reward pitcher- he could win twenty games (for the next TEN years) or his arm could fall off.
Too many baskets for your eggs.
By N8
October 20, 2008 8:34 PM | Link to this
mbatl
“Where does that come from? Have the Braves, or even any blogger, suggested that Jake Peavy alone is all the Braves need?”
Not to speak for my fellow statesman, but what I think that he’s getting at, is the fact that we are all under the assumption that this team is gonna get “fixed” via our farm system.
Either by:
A) USING the guys in the system (Hanson, Heyward, Shafer, etc….), to fix the problem by PLAYING them now (2009) or in the near future (2010).
or
B) Using them in trades to upgrade all of the areas of need. Of course, if Wren uses ALL of them (highly unlikely), to acquire Peavy, what is left that can net us some MLB ready players?
I believe what Coach is getting at, is that we might be better off using those guys as trade bait for “lesser” player(S), that can be upgrades at multiple positions than putting all of our “eggs” (prospects), into one basket (Peavy).
Even coach has to admit that Peavy is an upgrade over EVERY pitcher in our rotation plans. Provided he is healthy in 2010, he’ll probably even be an upgrade over Hudson when he’s returned from TJ surgery.
But we have the money to spend in free agency AND the prospects to trade for other parts.
Why not target two #2 or #3 starters (if not 3 of them), along with finding an everyday POWER hitting LF, and some more bullpen help, rather than acquiring a true #1 starter? Last time I checked, the goal was to make the TEAM better.
The Padres were just as awful as us last year WITH Peavy.
So, unless Wren thinks that he can pry Peavy away from the Pads (at our asking price), and STILL add another starter (or two), along with a LF and some bullpen help, I think he should just lay low.
Unless of course, he wants to drive the price up for other teams, thus making the Mets or other teams drain their system more?
He wouldn’t do that, would he?
By Lew
October 20, 2008 8:48 PM | Link to this
Shaun-No, you act like an adroid because you have your own programming, complete with firewalls and take nothing any inputting human has to say into consideration. You keep asking for proof-of what? What is this undeniable truth you can’t make us see? Many of us believe that run production is more important that OBP. You don’t. It doesn’t make us wrong or you right that you refuse to agree with anyone else, or believe that our rational is just as viable as your’s is.
We’ve given you plenty of good, logical reasons why we feel run production is key to winning a game. You just refuse to admit any validity to those arguments. I reiterate-your stubborn and glacial refusal to believe anyone’s logic but your own doesn’t make you right. It just adds credence to the fact that most here think you an arrogant, inflexible machine.
Dude-You’ve been ranting like a fool for going on three weeks now on a topic most of us tired of a long time ago. We have told you so on numerous occasions. If you haven’t talked us into changing our views in three weeks, I can tell you pretty definitively that you;re not going to. Quit ranting or find a new topic. You really are sounding like And Idiot that is hoping if you bludgeon us with your “truth” long enough, we will all agree with you just so you’ll shut up. We won’t.
By richbrave
October 20, 2008 8:50 PM | Link to this
COACH:
I’m with you. Don’t bet the farm AND/OR the infield on an iffy pitching arm. It will NOT solve the problems facing this team. Eat the pain and let the farm develop.
Buy a FA arm outright, or with existing players added(DIAZ/ANDERSON or both for example). ESCOBAR should stay, and we should have a #2 hitter like RENTERIA was in ‘07. Is that player PRADO.? Our other hitting need is in the 5 hole and a rental CF’r is needed there. Put JOHNSON in left. Install PRADO at the 2’s for ‘09 and see if he continues to develop with the bat and especially in the field. Buy a FA back-up catcher for ‘09, ESTRADA, BARRETT, whoever.
Farm hands other than those who are marginal should be off limits this time around. Our days of being able to give away the future for the now are OVER. Rebuilding is just that - rebuilding, and it’s painful. Listen to WREN and stay the course. We should get two excellent picks in this draft also. In ‘11 BRAVES should be back on the rise with at least one of those plus HEYWARD, FREEMAN, SCHAFER, HERNANDEZ, HANSON, MORTON, JULIO, TEHREN,FLOWERS.
CHIP can finish out his career in style, and THEN(‘11) we can trade farm hands to fill the one or two holes we have at that time.
By Shaun
October 20, 2008 8:53 PM | Link to this
DOB, as far as me having a fantasy baseball perspective, I’d want Howard over Utley in a fantasy league because fantasy leagues overvalue homers, RBI and one-dimensional players. The players valued in fantasy baseball are the players valued by the BBWAA as opposed to the players who actual have value in helping their real teams win.
By Coach (I'm a belligerent boob)
October 20, 2008 8:55 PM | Link to this
If Cox hadn’t rejected that Betemit for Sabathia trade a few years back, we wouldn’t be in this position.
We could’ve had Howard Johnson.
Fool me once, can’t fool me again.
By Coach (Skip will be missed)
October 20, 2008 8:59 PM | Link to this
That’s funny, I remember feeling as if the Braves had won the lottery when they signed Greg Maddux. I felt the same way when the trade for Fred McGriff went down.
However, when the Braves traded for J.D.Drew, I had that o no I’m gonna puke feeling. I got really upset when Mark Teixiera became a Brave and I’m getting the urge to run screaming every time Jake Peavy comes to mind.
By BravesFanChris24
October 20, 2008 9:03 PM | Link to this
I am glad it’s Rays/Phillies as it should be about and even match up. I hope Rays wins it all as they deserve it and would make the most sense from the whole story of this season for them.
As far as Peavy goes. I hope Braves get the deal done. I also hope it happens sooner than later and not drag out if possible.
By mbatl
October 20, 2008 9:04 PM | Link to this
Why not target two #2 or #3 starters (if not 3 of them), along with finding an everyday POWER hitting LF, and some more bullpen help, rather than acquiring a true #1 starter? Last time I checked, the goal was to make the TEAM better.
N8, got any names, as far as the 2 (or 3!) #2/3 starters go? I’m really on board with that idea, but am not aware of anyone giving away #2 starters on the cheap.
Glad to hear back from you, btw.
By jrjags
October 20, 2008 9:09 PM | Link to this
Coach,
How will we get raped again like we did with Teixera? Towers has almost no leverage at all with Peavy. He either trades him or he doesn’t. He can’t bid teams against one another because Peavy has a full no-trade clause. It doesn’t matter what some other team offers if Peavy doesn’t approve the trade. He’s given a list of five teams. None of them except the Dodgers can come close to matching anything the Braves can offer, low level or major league ready. And for the Dodgers, their best pitching prospect is Kershaw. No way they trade him. The packages the Braves would compete against won’t be at the level of the Teixera deal. We’d have to give up some prospects, yes, but give up the farm, no. If we’re patient like the Mets were last year, we could wind up getting a somewhat discounted deal…Towers has little leverage outside of refusing to trade him, and if that happens, we move on.
By Shaun
October 20, 2008 9:14 PM | Link to this
Lew, what do you mean by run production? You mean an individual hitters RBI? Well, no, I don’t think that is the same thing as run production.
And the discussion is about the MVP. And the MVP isn’t just about run production (or it should not be). It’s about every aspect of the game. It’s not about one part of the season.
Sorry if I don’t accept the consensus as truth but it’s not. An individual’s RBI total is not the same as his production no matter how many people wish it were.
Sorry if I don’t bring up what the MLBPA and members of the BBWAA say as proof that my views are correct. Sorry if I actually provide the facts.
Sorry if when the discussion around baseball turns to the NL MVP, there are going to be people a lot smarter than I who are going to agree that Howard should not finish in the top two.
By Steve from OH
October 20, 2008 9:14 PM | Link to this
Coach, I agree with you on Peavy. He would be a wonderful addition, no doubt, but I think it compromises not only all of our other offseason moves but our future as well. But man, would I love to have Peavy…
If I’m the GM, I made a somewhat lowballish offer, but not terribly unrealistic, like Gorkys, Flowers, Rohrbough, Redmond, Reyes. I tell Towers that’s our final offer, and then wander off for a while investigating other options. If he can’t find a better deal, he’ll come crawling back to us, and we’ll be in the driver’s seat, and maybe we can negotiate a little from there. If he finds a better deal, fine, becuase that same deal would probably cost us too much anyway. Make an offer for Magglio, and sign a free agent pitcher. If we don’t get Peavy, then we can either try to sign another pitcher of lesser cost or trade for someone cheaper. In either case, we keep Morton and Hanson in the fold, both of whom I believe will have a positive impact next season, especially Hanson.
Also, why package Yuney with prospects when we could just as easily trade him straight-up for a different (but good) pitcher? Not advocating this, but it’s just a thought that kind of occured to me just now…
Lew, your Shaun-bashing is getting about as old as the Howard/Utley debate. I enjoy all of you guys’ (both Shaun and Lew) posts very much, but can we please move on? Por favor?
By Marsalis Wallace
October 20, 2008 9:18 PM | Link to this
I find the overuse of the term “rape” here to be extremely offensive.
By N8
October 20, 2008 9:20 PM | Link to this
mbatl
“N8, got any names, as far as the 2 (or 3!) #2/3 starters go? I’m really on board with that idea, but am not aware of anyone giving away #2 starters on the cheap…..Glad to hear back from you, btw.”
Thanx. Good to be back and now that my Chiefs season is over (actually was over in June. LOL!), it’s good to be back blogging and thinking baseball.
As far as names? No. None really come to mind. But keep in mind that NOBODY saw JJJ coming last year either. Add to that, since I live up north, it’s amazing listening to Twins fans moaning and Groaning about giving away Garza.
If the scouts do their job, and Bobby is as good as the world thinks he is at getting the most out of player, I’m sure there are some bargains to be had out there for Wren to get the better end of….like the Renteria trade.
Time to sell high, and by low, rather than the opposite (like we did with Tex).
Just my opinion.
That being said, I’m not gonna pizz and moan if we get Peavy, so long as he stays healthy, and the 3 or 4 guys we give up, don’t turn into HOF guys, and Peavy leads us to the playoffs again.
If only I (and Wren) had a crystal ball, huh?
By Tomas
October 20, 2008 9:23 PM | Link to this
DOB, would the SD take a deal where they don’t take Heyward, Tejeran, Hanson, or Freeman?
How about if the Braves offered Yunel Escobar, Jordan Schaefer, Kris Medlen or Charlie Morton, and Brandon Jones in exchange for Jake Peavy, and Khalil Greene taking full responsability of both players salaries. It includes a CF, a SS, a major league ready SP, and another bat to maybe replace Brian Giles.
If i’m the Padres, i’d take that deal, and if i’m Wren, I would not trade, Hanson, Tejeran, or Heyward for anything(those guys are the promising future of the organization).
By N8
October 20, 2008 9:26 PM | Link to this
Steve from OH
“Also, why package Yuney with prospects when we could just as easily trade him straight-up for a different (but good) pitcher? Not advocating this, but it’s just a thought that kind of occured to me just now…”
Precisely the point I was trying to make to mbatl.
Like I told him, I really don’t have any “targets” off the top of my head. But that’s what the scouts and Wren are paid for.
Besides. I have no way of knowing who is a “Bobby” kind of guy in the club-house, to make a real assumption on who we should go after.
By mbatl
October 20, 2008 9:36 PM | Link to this
Yes! Let’s trade Yunel straight-up for a different (but good) pitcher
Really, guys, I’m on board with that… just would like to know the pitchers last name before we complete the deal. (and, I guess we don’t really want Jake Peavy. okay.)
By Tomas
October 20, 2008 9:39 PM | Link to this
DOB, you need to do something about the AJC poll. Who would you rather see in a Braves uniform next year, Bobby Abreu, Rocco Baldelli, Jacque Jones, or Manny Ramirez. What the hell is Jacque Jones doing in that poll, why not Pat Burrel, Magglio Ordoñez, or Adam Dunn, I’d even prefer Raul Ibañez, or Juan Rivera than Jaque Jones. Also why Rocco Baldelli, everybody knows he can’t play everyday because of his mitochondrian disorder. Really talk some sense to your collegues in AJC.
By Nelson
October 20, 2008 9:41 PM | Link to this
I’m Cuban and if the Braves trade Yunel they will lose a fan on me. It was more than enough when they preferred the fat cow of corky Miller (almost never played) over Bryan Peña, it will be an offense to us.Like it was to Escobar!!! The attitude problem (if any) as DOB says is because in this team players on slump play every day, sinking the team to the bottom of the Ocean, and he plays a dynamic baseball not the extra-boring way Bobby use to. If the Braves keep on trading explosive players like him, they will wait more than 100 years before they win another WS, because the curse of Yunel with add to the curse of David Justice!!!!.
By Greg in TN
October 20, 2008 10:00 PM | Link to this
Evening denizens…
The debate continues on Planet Braves in terms of whether or not Frank Wren and Kevin Towers should make a deal concerning Jake Peavy (who’s gotten so much blog attention that maybe we ought to just shorten it to JP), and if so, who should we be sending to San Diego to complete the deal.
Meanwhile, the World Series makes it’s first foray into St. Pete with the Rays punching their ticket after a seven-game battle with the Red Sox. Shades of 1991? Maybe so. Regardless, this is great for the game of baseball even if Fox executives are moaning and groaning about a near miss ratings bonanza that they could have gotten with the Sox and Dodgers, or the Sox and the Cubs.
Tampa/St. Pete will have an interesting few months ahead with the Series beginning Wednesday night on the Gulf Coast and with the Super Bowl at Raymond James Stadium in February.
By Shaun's Epiphany
October 20, 2008 10:04 PM | Link to this
An Urgent Message From the Deity of the Internet!
Commandment #1 Thou shalt not p!ss off the Internet..
Commandment #2 If thou doest, thou shalt be smitten with the everlasting plague of scorn, disbelief, and, quite possibly, severely decreased bandwidth as a result of these sinful actions..
By Shaun's Epiphany Pt. 2
October 20, 2008 10:30 PM | Link to this
One more message from the Deity of the Internet!
When thou dost continually protest thy untenable position on an argument, then thou dost appear to the denizens like the bleating of a lamb..
Lambs are regularly led to slaughter..
Thou shouldst consider this for righteousness sake..
By Brian
October 20, 2008 10:40 PM | Link to this
Nelson- PLEASE, lets not play the race card! I love Escobar and I’m sure there isn’t one person on this blog who wants to see him traded. He will be a superstar in my opinion but you have think that if the Padres ask for him and the Braves can keep Hanson, they’ll do it. I gaurantee FW will do everything to keep Escobar but this is Peavy, a CY Young pitcher. I agree on Pena over Miller because I liked him alot too!
By Daybed Wagmoe
October 20, 2008 10:41 PM | Link to this
It’s the idea that the Braves are somehow expecting this one trade to put them back into playoff contention. Coach
Uh, yeah — caused it’s freakin’ JAKE PEAVY!!!
Not only will that guy win 25 games with a sub-1.00 era, he’ll also hit 20 homers and drive in 75-80 rbi…as a pitcher!
you don’t expect a guy like that to catapult them into playoff contention? geez…well, whatever dude.
By David O'Brien
October 20, 2008 10:44 PM | Link to this
Just got back in, and the first post I read (from bottom up) is Shaun’s Epiphany Pt. 2. I’m sorry, but that’s just funny.
By David O'Brien
October 20, 2008 10:46 PM | Link to this
Nelson, duly noted. I do love the passion.
By AceCometh
October 20, 2008 10:48 PM | Link to this
It’s pretty sad when a player can be considered a legit MVP candidate for having ONLY a good second half. It would make much more sense if MVP candidates were valuable players for the ENTIRE season. Albert Pujols should win MVP in the NL, not Ryan Howard.
By Tim McCarver (I once caught Bob Gibson you know)
October 20, 2008 10:48 PM | Link to this
Key Largo The other night we discussed other Jone’s who could play centerfield better than Andrew, who some idiots were wanting to reacquire. I suggested Pac Man Jones and you came up with Tom Jones. Here are some additional Joneses who could outhit Andrew at this juncture.
Jesus Jones (singer from the 90’s) Jerry Jones (Egotistical Cowboy’s Owner) Starr Jones (Fat Black talk-show host) Buckshot Jones (Former NASCAR racer) Me and Mrs. Jones (Billy Paul, 70’s hit) James Earl Jones (“this is CNN”) Shirley Jones (Partridge Family MILF) Catherine Zeta Jones (Hollywood Starlet) Indiana Jones (Big Screen Hero) Davy Jones (Lead singer of Monkees) etc.
By David O'Brien
October 20, 2008 10:49 PM | Link to this
The players valued in fantasy baseball are the players valued by the BBWAA as opposed to the players who actual have value in helping their real teams win.Shaun
And here I was thinking fantasy leagues were a waste of time….
By David O'Brien
October 20, 2008 10:54 PM | Link to this
Shaun, my man, I was gone for nearly five hours and come back and, unbelievably, you’ve been ranting and raving for most of that time about a subject that really, bottom line, matters little if any for most of our audience.
Dude, I went to the newly located (and expanded) Criminal Records in Little Five Points and found a nearly pristine copy of Isaac Hayes’ classic “Black Moses” double LP on vinyl. The one with the man on the cover in his shades wearing a hood.
It might do you a world of good to sit down with this music on a big pair of headphones and … chiiiiilllll.
By David O'Brien
October 20, 2008 10:56 PM | Link to this
Braveheart, thanks for the Man in Black article. I didn’t even know they had that flower-picking festival over there. Interesting stuff. Coincidentally, that was my other purchase tonight — the Cash Live at Folson Prison three-disc box set, with two CDs and a DVD. Gonna be good listening/viewing.
By Random
October 20, 2008 10:58 PM | Link to this
Shaun: “so if runs are runs, please tell me why Chipper is probably going to finish at least in the top 10 in the NL MVP voting?”
Because Chipper was batting .400 on Jun 18, later in the season since I don’t know who or when (‘cause I really don’t know and I’m too tired to look it up), and held on even after the departure of Texeira and his protective presence behind him to win the batting crown. That’s probably the biggest reason.
That and the other biggest reason I mentioned previously.
More later (maybe).
PS: to further comment on your earlier charge:
Shaun: “you are under the assumption that making an out is meaningless to run production, creation, whatever you want to call it.”
No — I specifically addressed that in my 2:12 PM comment.
Namely, yes, in about the same number of plate appearances, Howard made 23 more outs than Utlay (5.2% more).
And yet he also drove in 27 more baserunners (38.0%) more, and he was 26.9% more productive in doing so (comparing OBI%s of each).
Now, that’s VALUE!!!
PPS: flange1 — thanx!
By Jake
October 20, 2008 11:05 PM | Link to this
I was just on the Padres website reading their mailbag and to say they have lofty dreams would be an understatement. One of their fans suggested Peavy and Greene for Yunel, Hanson, Schafer, Reyes and lower level prospects. Their beat writer suggested a trade of Peavy and Greene for Yunel, Jurrjens, and Schafer.
By A Blogger's Prayer
October 20, 2008 11:12 PM | Link to this
doG,
Grant me the Serenity to read Shaun’s comments,
The Courage to ignore them,
And the Wisdom not to respond.
By cabravesfan
October 20, 2008 11:21 PM | Link to this
Their beat writer suggested a trade of Peavy and Greene for Yunel, Jurrjens, and Schafer.
Wow- if they think the Braves are going to trade JJ (not to mention Yunel and Schafer also) for anything the Pads fans are going to be very disappointed
(I am also amoung those who pretty much consider Yunel untouchable but not as much as JJ)
By A Blogger's Prayer
October 20, 2008 11:21 PM | Link to this
Just kidding, kidding — NOT piling on Shaun.
By keylargo
October 20, 2008 11:24 PM | Link to this
TMac
You could add Bert Jones LSU/Colts quarterback; Joans Baez (DOB would like this move), Joans of Arc (she’s dead but will drive in just as many in the clutch), Barnaby Jones, Cleon Jones (Mets all time great).
I know this is hard to read, but it is much more interesting than Utley/MVP talk.
By Random
October 20, 2008 11:28 PM | Link to this
DOB: *”Shaun … you’ve been ranting and raving … about crap that really, bottom line, means nothing to our audience here.”
That’s simply not true.
Take your own advice, “Chief” — if you don’t like it, skip it, as so many of us skip your oh-so-hip and pretentious musical blatherings.
Easy enough to do.
By Nelson
October 21, 2008 12:04 AM | Link to this
It is not about race! Justice is not Cuban and I felt the same way when they traded him, it was like removing the Braves’ heart, after that this team is not the same anymore, and what I see if that every time they have a player with hot blood, they don’t like it at all. Why? :Because of Bobby, let’s face that!!!. I tell you more with the Justice trade they not only screwed the Braves but also Justice career, or you don’t remember when he was inducted to the Braves hall of fame, he loved the Braves!! Sorry, but I don’t like the way they are building the Team, ask Ron Gant if he agree with me or not?
By David O'Brien
October 21, 2008 12:56 AM | Link to this
Tim McArver: Come on, Shirley Jones? I draw the line at Shirley Jones.
By brent a.
October 21, 2008 1:00 AM | Link to this
Shaun,
why not just exchange e-mails with some people and/or get a (chat) room?
By David O'Brien
October 21, 2008 1:02 AM | Link to this
Random: Thanks, but no, I’ll actually probably continue to read every word of every comment Shaun posts. Yours, on the other hand, have taken an increasingly obvious tone towards me, so that’ll make it easy for me to skip over those. And Johnny Cash = pretentious. That’s a new one for me. Or was it Isaac Hayes = pretentious? Either way, thanks for letting me know where you stand on that stuff.
By David O'Brien
October 21, 2008 1:23 AM | Link to this
By the way: Shaun, immediately after posting that comment, the one re-posted by Random (who’s become the expert at doing that with everyone’s posts, constantly), I realized I’d gone a bit overboard with the wording of it, and softened it to reflect how I meant to come across. I really was just busting your chops, as we’re inclined to do toward the end of the day.
You know I meant no harm. You get me fired up, but the mere fact that I can’t avoid responding to you should tell you something about the fact I find your arguments compelling. I really do strongly disagree with your stances on MVPs and such, but you support your arguments and don’t back down. That’s admirable.
And you never make it personal. And I hope you don’t think I was making it that way with you.
Random, on the other hand, has made his position known. With him, it’s personal. So I cross that one off the list. No need to respond to those folks. Don’t pay me enough to do that.
By David O'Brien
October 21, 2008 1:26 AM | Link to this
Those from other blogs or who cover other teams who are suggesting the Braves might/should trade Jurrjens in a deal for Peavy, I can only suspect they’re making those suggestions because they don’t understand how special Jurrjens is and how the Braves view him.
If any of you are concerned the Braves might trade him in a deal for Peavy, I would say with a great deal of confidence that you don’t need to worry about that.
By Mike in LA
October 21, 2008 1:36 AM | Link to this
How bout the Braves using some of these prospects that are being thrown around on the blog here to trade for Magglio Ordonez and Justin Verlander. I think it would take just about the same type of prospects to acquire Peavy as it would those two and that would kill two needs with one trade. I don’t think its unreasonable to think the Tigers wouldn’t trade those two given that they want to dump Magglio’s salary. I also read that the Cubs want to make a run at Manny, and if they were to do that they would need to dump Alfonso Soriano’s salary. Hell, if they are just going to give Soriano away why not put him in Atlanta behind Chipper Jones.
By Tomahawkin
October 21, 2008 1:53 AM | Link to this
Nelson While I do understand your Previous rants about the heart of the braves being traded, and your referral to Ron Gant’s departure…I just have to chime in on that baseball is a business and the reason Ron Gant was released was because he was owed alot of money to miss 18 months because of the off road dirtbike incident…
And also if you go to that point in time 94-95 we had several up and coming outfielders ( Klesko, Tony Tarasco, and in 95-96 Jermaine Dye, and A. Jones) who were ready to compete for jobs at the major league level…for a hella lot cheaper rate than paying Ron Gant’s contract, which I believe that he was owed 4-5 million for the 94 season, but don’t quote me on that….
By N Nine
October 21, 2008 1:54 AM | Link to this
Mike in LA, Don’t get me wrong i like verlander but he is not the 2007 CY Winner. Magglio would look great in the lineup. For the most part he stays healthy. Wonder what tigers want for him.
Dob glad Jurrjens will be here for a while! I’m not sure if anyone brought this up but traderumors has you saying KJ,Yunel,and Hanson for peavy would get it done. I don’t think you ever said that especially with Hanson. KJ would fit great as our second baseman!!
By Tomahawkin
October 21, 2008 2:11 AM | Link to this
Mike In LA No way Soriano comes to Atlanta…Soriano isn’t worth the money he’s making just because he had a “Contract Year” before he got all that money to sign with the Cubs…
The dude hasn’t stolen more than 19 bases since he got his big payday 2 years ago, granted he’s been injured off-and-on, but he is not worth 15 million plus for a soon-to-be 33 year old whose speed and defense will be on the decline. Added to that he has been known to be a very selfish player…
By cameron
October 21, 2008 2:12 AM | Link to this
Braves get Jake Peavy and Khalil Greene
Padres get Yunel Escobar SS, Gorkys Hernandez CF, Tyler Flowers C, Cole Rohborough SP, Kris Medlen SP, Brandon Jones OF
what do u think?
By ccrider