AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2008 > October > 14
Tuesday, October 14, 2008
Enough postseason, let’s get to Peavy
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
So I’m getting the distinct impression that most of you on the Braves/MIB blog would like to be done already with this postseason so we can get on to important stuff: the Braves’ pursuit of starting pitchers and a power-hitting outfielder.
Or rather, their pursuit of Jake Peavy and, yeah, whatever else.
Yes, a bit of Peavy Mania has hit the Braves/MIB blog, or is that just me trying to drive up online traffic, as one commenter here said after I first mentioned a little over a week ago that I thought the Braves should and surely would make a big push for Peavy?
It wasn’t idle speculation, folks. The Braves would love to have Peavy, and are exploring what it will take to get the hard-throwing right-hander.
Now, I don’t know if they discussed with Padres GM Kevin Towers the parameters of a proposal yet; I don’t think they have. But they’ve let Towers know they’re interested, and he’s made it clear Peavy can be had for the right price.
The man is 27 years old, was a unanimous winner of the 2007 NL Cy Young Award, has averaged 192 innings and 194 strikeouts in six full seasons in the majors, and is under contract through 2011. Ace in prime. Plain and simple.
Peavy will make $11 million in 2009, $15 million in 2010, $16 million in 2011 and $17 million in 2012. There’s also a big $22-million team option for 2013, with a $4 million buyout.
Other teams will surely make strong offers, too. But as I said before, the Braves have a potentially significant advantage in that Peavy is an Alabama boy, born and raised, and he and his wife and kids make their offseason home in ‘Bama, not in San Diego.
Translated: Can’t take the South out of this dude, who grew up loving the Braves and in the past has told friends how much he’d like to pitch for Atlanta.
And I’m not just talking about telling friends that years ago (though he did that, too.)
I received an e-mail couple days ago from a guy from Alabama. I agreed to leave out his name and hometown (only way he’d let me use this e-mail), but I’ve got every reason to believe it’s legit. The guy said he and his buddies stay in contact with Peavy, and have for years since the latter went off to forge a career.
He said he spent some time with Peavy this past season, and that the subject of the Braves came up then, as it had in the past with Peavy and his friends. The guy said he asked Peavy about playing for Atlanta, and the pitcher “said it was something that he had always wanted to do, and made it sound like that was his #1 option when his contract was up.” (That’s taken directly from the guy’s e-mail.)
Now, all this was before the Padres owner’s divorce and before the team went in the toilet on the way to 99 losses. They weren’t that bad at the time when this guy said he talked to Jake. Back then, a trade to the Braves or any team wasn’t being discussed.
This guy said in the e-mail that if the Padres hadn’t signed Peavy to his big contract a year ago, Peavy told him he probably would have eventually signed with the Braves after his arbitration years were up, even if it meant signing a below-market contract. (This guy insisted Peavy was becoming a little upset with the Padres — that is, until they finally came through with the big contract.)
Now, months later, Towers says he’ll listen to offers for Peavy.
The guy who said he’s an old friend of Peavy’s tells me that Peavy “wants to be closer to his and his wife’s family, and also has a phenomenal hunting camp in Camden, Alabama, where he spends a lot of time in the off season. So there is no doubt in my mind he would waive his no trade to [go to] Atlanta, and my guess is that he wouldn’t waive it to an American League team, even if his agent is saying that.”
(This, the e-mailer told me, is because Peavy likes the NL game, that he likes hitting and being into the whole game.)
OK, I know there will be some out there who question the validity of this e-mailer’s identity and friendship with Peavy. I did, too, initially. But like I said, he gave details and reasons why I believe this guy is on the up-and-up.
If this guy’s pulling my leg, he’s doing it well, and sure put a lot of effort into it.
If he’s sincere; well, you can understand why I thought it was worth sharing with you all. Besides, it should boost online traffic (wink).
For a Braves team with more than $40 mill to spend on additions for 2009, Peavy’s backloaded contract could work well because it would allow them to sign or trade for another starting pitcher and outfielder, and bring back one or more from the pitching group of Mike Hampton and, if they can pitch again, John Smoltz and/or Tom Glavine.
Hampton isn’t a slam-dunk, by any means. I get the impression he will consider all his options. In other words, as much as he’s liked pitching for the Braves (when healthy) and as much as they would like to have him back (healthy), he’s not going to take a clearly inferior offer from them over a better offer from another team, regardless of what was said publicly late in the season.
With Smoltz and Glavine, it’s still way too early to know if they’re going to be able to pitch again. Might not be until late December or January before we know, though it could obviously be a lot sooner if they struggle once they ramp up the intensity of throwing workouts later this winter.
But back to Peavy, who could be the answer to the Braves’ “ace” dilemma for quite some time.
Getting an in-his-prime ace like this cat, who’s averaged 13 wins over six full seasons for some lackluster (and some plain bad) San Diego teams, a guy with a sub-2.90 ERA in four of the past five seasons, is only a legit possibility because the retooling Padres might shed his salary if they get several good young players and/or solid prospects in return.
Peavy’s their all-time strikeout leader, and has iconic potential in San Diego, but if a team approaches Towers with an offer for Peavy that includes several young, inexpensive, potential impact players, and particularly a pitcher or two, he’ll surely listen. That’s become clear.
Braves GM Frank Wren said two weeks ago that the Braves might be able to make a trade — he wasn’t talking about Peavy, but just in general terms — using some of the Braves’ quality pitching depth in the minor league system. They don’t want to trade top pitching prospect Tommy Hanson or slugging prospects Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman, but perhaps the Braves — and this is just me speculating — might be willing to include one or two arms from the group that includes Cole Rohrbough, Jeff Locke, Kris Medlen, Scott Diamond and Todd Redmond, plus perhaps one from the group of position player prospects including Brent Lillibridge, Tyler Flowers, Brandon Jones, or perhaps even one of their top young center-field talents, Gorkys Hernandez or Jordan Schafer.
I’m not talking about four or five of those guys, but perhaps two or three of the good ones. And maybe, just maybe, the Padres, who are unsettled at second base, would be interested in Kelly Johnson, whose gappers would yield a ton of extra-base hits in Petco Park.
Anyway, in another week or two we might be able to do more than speculate. We might start to get a better idea of whether the Padres are really going to trade Peavy, and just how determined the Braves are to bring to Atlanta the Alabama native son.
Hey, these Phillies are pretty good: After getting their butts handed to them all season by the Phillies, at least the Braves might be able to take some solace knowing Philadelphia is headed to the World Series.
I’ll go even further than that. I think the Phillies, up 3-1 in the NLCS against the Dodgers before Wednesday’s Game 5, are going to win the World Series, regardless of whether they face the Tampa Bay Rays or Boston Red Sox.
(You should know, given my recent record in prognostication, you might want to make up your own mind before making any wagers.)
Anyway … early in the season, when National League hitters had something like six of the top seven OPS figures in baseball and the two leagues had virtually identical ERAs, I said perhaps the AL’s recent dominance was finally waning, the talent pool was more evenly divided again, and that the NL would finally snap its skid in the All-Star Game and get home-field advantage for the World Series.
That didn’t happen, but it won’t matter. Because with Josh Beckett and Big Papi at less than 100 percent, the Red Sox aren’t the powerhouse they were last fall. And the Rays, for all their magical success this season, are awfully young and inexperienced, especially in the starting rotation, to expect them to hold up under the glare of the World Series.
So mark it down now: The next World Series champion comes from the NL East.
Unless the Dodgers win Wednesday. Then all bets are off.
No, just kidding. The Phillies are going to win the World Series. Shane “I Need a Nice Hawaiian Punch” Victorino will be fitted for a World Series ring. Ryan Howard is going to come through on the biggest stage, before he is crowned NL MVP (that voting was done before the postseason started, and I think he’ll edge out Albert Pujols, though an equally strong case can be made for either.)
Now this is a dubious draft record: Plenty of talk here recently about the lack of top-flight pitchers who’ve been drafted and developed by the Braves. Of course, part of that has to do with the fact they didn’t pick high in the draft for a lot of years when they were winning 14 consecutive division titles.
Sort of along those same lines, consider the New York Yankees’ recent record of drafting position players. The New York Times noted that, according to a study by ESPN.com, the only position player drafted by the Yankees from 1997 to 2005 has compiled as many as 200 at-bats in the major leagues. Think about that. It’s pretty amazing.
That player? Andy Phillips, who’s no longer a Yankee.
Diversions: Just finished listening to the new Lucinda Williams CD, Little Honey. Good, not great, sorry to say. Last year’s West was better, and this isn’t anywhere near as good as her best including Car Wheels On a Gravel Road. I’ve only listened once. Maybe it’ll grow on me more with repeated listens. But that’s my initial impression.
Johnny Cash’s expended two-CD, one-DVD version of Live at Folson Prison was out today, but Don at Ella Guru hadn’t gotten his UPS shipment when I stopped by his store at noon, and I didn’t see the thing at Best Buy…. New Hank III CD out next Tuesday.
Meanhile, the more I listen to The Hold Steady Stay Positive CD the more I’m convinced it’ll be in my Top 5 at year’s end. The strange thing about it is, the very best songs on a stellar-from-start-to-finish CD are actually the three “bonus” songs that are on one 11-minute track at the end of the CD (I just read that only one of the three is included on the vinyl version; don’t know about downloading at ITunes or whatever, or if they maybe put the three together so they can’t be shared.) Anyway, this is one of those three great bonus songs at the end of an amazing album.
“TWO-HANDED HANDSHAKE”; by The Hold Steady
His two-handed handshake
Says he’s so glad to meet you
His one silver earring
Says he parties on weekends
He churns through the channels
When he’s watching the TV
He recites lines from movies
When he’s trying to be funny
Guys, it’s like we’re not even trying
Yeah, she danced with that one guy
She must know we’re watching
It seems like less people
Than were here just last weekend
She’s still pretty pi$$ed
About her ex’s new trick
There were stares
And glares and names
Girls, you know you’re not really helping
I don’t think that you’ll find love
In some bathroom at some club
I know some kids who didn’t come back
We had on Fridays
We’re pirates at port
We go in and we get high,
Two at a time
We get drunk on the sports
We’re falling into bed
With our television sets
We’re watching movies
That we’ve already seen
Guys, it’s like we’re not even trying
You dress like contestants
At some desparate pagaent
You fall asleep in your makeup
You wake up with a blemish
You’re making up your mind
About the drinks after work
It’s such a goss at the office
Girls, you’re gonna find someone
You don’t have to rush it
You’re too young to force your crushes
You don’t have to rush it
You’re too young to fake your crushes
Oooh
Guys, I’m pretty sure that we can put it back together
And girls, you gotta try to be nice to one another
Guys, I’m pretty sure that we can put it back together
And girls, you gotta try to be nice to one another
I don’t think we’ll get the truth
From kids with stickers on their boots
I know some kids who didn’t come back
From the plywood painted black
We gotta try a little harder
We gotta be a little better
We gotta pull it back together
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