AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2008 > October > 14 > Entry
DEL.ICIO.USEnough postseason, let’s get to Peavy
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
So I’m getting the distinct impression that most of you on the Braves/MIB blog would like to be done already with this postseason so we can get on to important stuff: the Braves’ pursuit of starting pitchers and a power-hitting outfielder.
Or rather, their pursuit of Jake Peavy and, yeah, whatever else.
Yes, a bit of Peavy Mania has hit the Braves/MIB blog, or is that just me trying to drive up online traffic, as one commenter here said after I first mentioned a little over a week ago that I thought the Braves should and surely would make a big push for Peavy?
It wasn’t idle speculation, folks. The Braves would love to have Peavy, and are exploring what it will take to get the hard-throwing right-hander.
Now, I don’t know if they discussed with Padres GM Kevin Towers the parameters of a proposal yet; I don’t think they have. But they’ve let Towers know they’re interested, and he’s made it clear Peavy can be had for the right price.
The man is 27 years old, was a unanimous winner of the 2007 NL Cy Young Award, has averaged 192 innings and 194 strikeouts in six full seasons in the majors, and is under contract through 2011. Ace in prime. Plain and simple.
Peavy will make $11 million in 2009, $15 million in 2010, $16 million in 2011 and $17 million in 2012. There’s also a big $22-million team option for 2013, with a $4 million buyout.
Other teams will surely make strong offers, too. But as I said before, the Braves have a potentially significant advantage in that Peavy is an Alabama boy, born and raised, and he and his wife and kids make their offseason home in ‘Bama, not in San Diego.
Translated: Can’t take the South out of this dude, who grew up loving the Braves and in the past has told friends how much he’d like to pitch for Atlanta.
And I’m not just talking about telling friends that years ago (though he did that, too.)
I received an e-mail couple days ago from a guy from Alabama. I agreed to leave out his name and hometown (only way he’d let me use this e-mail), but I’ve got every reason to believe it’s legit. The guy said he and his buddies stay in contact with Peavy, and have for years since the latter went off to forge a career.
He said he spent some time with Peavy this past season, and that the subject of the Braves came up then, as it had in the past with Peavy and his friends. The guy said he asked Peavy about playing for Atlanta, and the pitcher “said it was something that he had always wanted to do, and made it sound like that was his #1 option when his contract was up.” (That’s taken directly from the guy’s e-mail.)
Now, all this was before the Padres owner’s divorce and before the team went in the toilet on the way to 99 losses. They weren’t that bad at the time when this guy said he talked to Jake. Back then, a trade to the Braves or any team wasn’t being discussed.
This guy said in the e-mail that if the Padres hadn’t signed Peavy to his big contract a year ago, Peavy told him he probably would have eventually signed with the Braves after his arbitration years were up, even if it meant signing a below-market contract. (This guy insisted Peavy was becoming a little upset with the Padres — that is, until they finally came through with the big contract.)
Now, months later, Towers says he’ll listen to offers for Peavy.
The guy who said he’s an old friend of Peavy’s tells me that Peavy “wants to be closer to his and his wife’s family, and also has a phenomenal hunting camp in Camden, Alabama, where he spends a lot of time in the off season. So there is no doubt in my mind he would waive his no trade to [go to] Atlanta, and my guess is that he wouldn’t waive it to an American League team, even if his agent is saying that.”
(This, the e-mailer told me, is because Peavy likes the NL game, that he likes hitting and being into the whole game.)
OK, I know there will be some out there who question the validity of this e-mailer’s identity and friendship with Peavy. I did, too, initially. But like I said, he gave details and reasons why I believe this guy is on the up-and-up.
If this guy’s pulling my leg, he’s doing it well, and sure put a lot of effort into it.
If he’s sincere; well, you can understand why I thought it was worth sharing with you all. Besides, it should boost online traffic (wink).
For a Braves team with more than $40 mill to spend on additions for 2009, Peavy’s backloaded contract could work well because it would allow them to sign or trade for another starting pitcher and outfielder, and bring back one or more from the pitching group of Mike Hampton and, if they can pitch again, John Smoltz and/or Tom Glavine.
Hampton isn’t a slam-dunk, by any means. I get the impression he will consider all his options. In other words, as much as he’s liked pitching for the Braves (when healthy) and as much as they would like to have him back (healthy), he’s not going to take a clearly inferior offer from them over a better offer from another team, regardless of what was said publicly late in the season.
With Smoltz and Glavine, it’s still way too early to know if they’re going to be able to pitch again. Might not be until late December or January before we know, though it could obviously be a lot sooner if they struggle once they ramp up the intensity of throwing workouts later this winter.
But back to Peavy, who could be the answer to the Braves’ “ace” dilemma for quite some time.
Getting an in-his-prime ace like this cat, who’s averaged 13 wins over six full seasons for some lackluster (and some plain bad) San Diego teams, a guy with a sub-2.90 ERA in four of the past five seasons, is only a legit possibility because the retooling Padres might shed his salary if they get several good young players and/or solid prospects in return.
Peavy’s their all-time strikeout leader, and has iconic potential in San Diego, but if a team approaches Towers with an offer for Peavy that includes several young, inexpensive, potential impact players, and particularly a pitcher or two, he’ll surely listen. That’s become clear.
Braves GM Frank Wren said two weeks ago that the Braves might be able to make a trade — he wasn’t talking about Peavy, but just in general terms — using some of the Braves’ quality pitching depth in the minor league system. They don’t want to trade top pitching prospect Tommy Hanson or slugging prospects Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman, but perhaps the Braves — and this is just me speculating — might be willing to include one or two arms from the group that includes Cole Rohrbough, Jeff Locke, Kris Medlen, Scott Diamond and Todd Redmond, plus perhaps one from the group of position player prospects including Brent Lillibridge, Tyler Flowers, Brandon Jones, or perhaps even one of their top young center-field talents, Gorkys Hernandez or Jordan Schafer.
I’m not talking about four or five of those guys, but perhaps two or three of the good ones. And maybe, just maybe, the Padres, who are unsettled at second base, would be interested in Kelly Johnson, whose gappers would yield a ton of extra-base hits in Petco Park.
Anyway, in another week or two we might be able to do more than speculate. We might start to get a better idea of whether the Padres are really going to trade Peavy, and just how determined the Braves are to bring to Atlanta the Alabama native son.
Hey, these Phillies are pretty good: After getting their butts handed to them all season by the Phillies, at least the Braves might be able to take some solace knowing Philadelphia is headed to the World Series.
I’ll go even further than that. I think the Phillies, up 3-1 in the NLCS against the Dodgers before Wednesday’s Game 5, are going to win the World Series, regardless of whether they face the Tampa Bay Rays or Boston Red Sox.
(You should know, given my recent record in prognostication, you might want to make up your own mind before making any wagers.)
Anyway … early in the season, when National League hitters had something like six of the top seven OPS figures in baseball and the two leagues had virtually identical ERAs, I said perhaps the AL’s recent dominance was finally waning, the talent pool was more evenly divided again, and that the NL would finally snap its skid in the All-Star Game and get home-field advantage for the World Series.
That didn’t happen, but it won’t matter. Because with Josh Beckett and Big Papi at less than 100 percent, the Red Sox aren’t the powerhouse they were last fall. And the Rays, for all their magical success this season, are awfully young and inexperienced, especially in the starting rotation, to expect them to hold up under the glare of the World Series.
So mark it down now: The next World Series champion comes from the NL East.
Unless the Dodgers win Wednesday. Then all bets are off.
No, just kidding. The Phillies are going to win the World Series. Shane “I Need a Nice Hawaiian Punch” Victorino will be fitted for a World Series ring. Ryan Howard is going to come through on the biggest stage, before he is crowned NL MVP (that voting was done before the postseason started, and I think he’ll edge out Albert Pujols, though an equally strong case can be made for either.)
Now this is a dubious draft record: Plenty of talk here recently about the lack of top-flight pitchers who’ve been drafted and developed by the Braves. Of course, part of that has to do with the fact they didn’t pick high in the draft for a lot of years when they were winning 14 consecutive division titles.
Sort of along those same lines, consider the New York Yankees’ recent record of drafting position players. The New York Times noted that, according to a study by ESPN.com, the only position player drafted by the Yankees from 1997 to 2005 has compiled as many as 200 at-bats in the major leagues. Think about that. It’s pretty amazing.
That player? Andy Phillips, who’s no longer a Yankee.
Diversions: Just finished listening to the new Lucinda Williams CD, Little Honey. Good, not great, sorry to say. Last year’s West was better, and this isn’t anywhere near as good as her best including Car Wheels On a Gravel Road. I’ve only listened once. Maybe it’ll grow on me more with repeated listens. But that’s my initial impression.
Johnny Cash’s expended two-CD, one-DVD version of Live at Folson Prison was out today, but Don at Ella Guru hadn’t gotten his UPS shipment when I stopped by his store at noon, and I didn’t see the thing at Best Buy…. New Hank III CD out next Tuesday.
Meanhile, the more I listen to The Hold Steady Stay Positive CD the more I’m convinced it’ll be in my Top 5 at year’s end. The strange thing about it is, the very best songs on a stellar-from-start-to-finish CD are actually the three “bonus” songs that are on one 11-minute track at the end of the CD (I just read that only one of the three is included on the vinyl version; don’t know about downloading at ITunes or whatever, or if they maybe put the three together so they can’t be shared.) Anyway, this is one of those three great bonus songs at the end of an amazing album.
“TWO-HANDED HANDSHAKE”; by The Hold Steady
His two-handed handshake
Says he’s so glad to meet you
His one silver earring
Says he parties on weekends
He churns through the channels
When he’s watching the TV
He recites lines from movies
When he’s trying to be funny
Guys, it’s like we’re not even trying
Yeah, she danced with that one guy
She must know we’re watching
It seems like less people
Than were here just last weekend
She’s still pretty pi$$ed
About her ex’s new trick
There were stares
And glares and names
Girls, you know you’re not really helping
I don’t think that you’ll find love
In some bathroom at some club
I know some kids who didn’t come back
We had on Fridays
We’re pirates at port
We go in and we get high,
Two at a time
We get drunk on the sports
We’re falling into bed
With our television sets
We’re watching movies
That we’ve already seen
Guys, it’s like we’re not even trying
You dress like contestants
At some desparate pagaent
You fall asleep in your makeup
You wake up with a blemish
You’re making up your mind
About the drinks after work
It’s such a goss at the office
Girls, you’re gonna find someone
You don’t have to rush it
You’re too young to force your crushes
You don’t have to rush it
You’re too young to fake your crushes
Oooh
Guys, I’m pretty sure that we can put it back together
And girls, you gotta try to be nice to one another
Guys, I’m pretty sure that we can put it back together
And girls, you gotta try to be nice to one another
I don’t think we’ll get the truth
From kids with stickers on their boots
I know some kids who didn’t come back
From the plywood painted black
We gotta try a little harder
We gotta be a little better
We gotta pull it back together
Comments
Commenting is now closed for this entry.
By JasonInFL (formerly Maine)
October 14, 2008 7:47 PM | Link to this
Still love your blogs DOB. I have transitioned close to the Dark Star and will be able to see some spring training every year now. Amazing how excited that still makes me at my age (:
Peavy in a Braves uniform would be, well, unbelievable!
By ernesto
October 14, 2008 7:49 PM | Link to this
Peavy and Jair, then there’s not much there.
New slogan for the ‘09 rotation?
By MGL
October 14, 2008 7:51 PM | Link to this
DOB - Thanks for the good stuff. I hope they don’t have to include KJ. What is he likely to make next year?
By keylargo
October 14, 2008 7:52 PM | Link to this
I have to think that the Padres will start the negotiations by asking for our best pitching prospect, Escobar or KJ and someone like Gorkys for Peavy and Greene.
I mean they have the 2007 Cy Young winner who is signed and signed cheap for years. Why would they start out taking our second or third best prospects?
It is not going to be easy, quick or cheap.
By semiballcoach
October 14, 2008 7:54 PM | Link to this
i’d like to see peavy, lowe, and baldelli with the braves next year…don’t fotget that blanco or anderson could be part of a deal, if the braves feel schaefer is ready…do you think there’d be any interest in barrett as a backup catcher?
By AndyA
October 14, 2008 7:56 PM | Link to this
DOB,
Love the “a guy who hunts with Jake stuff.” I’m buying it too. Assuming Wren can land Peavy (I know, still a big assumption) and another 2-3 pitcher from FA, what do you see happening to Hudson after 2009? I think he has a $12M option? Even if they don’t get Peavy, but another #1/2 instead, will there be room to re-sign Huddy assuming all goes well with his rehab next year?
By McFann Ô
October 14, 2008 7:57 PM | Link to this
Thanks for the new Blog, Chief!
Shane “I Need a Nice Hawaiian Punch” Victorino
Haha!
Yeah, I think they’re gonna win it all…’Tis quite a shame…
So, I here and now vow to never again drink Hawaiian Punch, unless I’m in dire need of a drink and that’s the only thing available.
By N Nine
October 14, 2008 7:57 PM | Link to this
Great title! (last post):
The Braves’ advantage comes from the fact that Peavy is an Alabama native, who has told friends in the Atlanta area that he’d welcome the opportunity to pitch for the Braves
Peavy 2.95 ERA since start of 04 season.
*After talking with bench coach Chino Cadahia last month, McCann came away saying that he will spend this offseason putting a greater emphasis on his physical condition.
If he’s able to get in better shape, he’ll likely gain better footwork behind the plate, and more importantly, lessen the fatigue he feels as the season progresses Bowman*
Omar Minaya could have almost $30MM to spend.
Yikes didn’t know George Steinbrenner was that close to us?!??
well at this rate there is going to be a city in Florida named after him. After a nice donation, In honor of Steinbrenner’s continued generosity, the Hillsborough County (Fla.) Commission and the Tampa City Council voted unanimously to recommend changing the name of the Yankees’ Spring Training facility from Legends Field to George M. Steinbrenner Field. They already had a street named after him and George M. Steinbrenner High School will open its doors in 2009 in Hillsborough County, north of Tampa. man, the guy is so rich! He needs to go ahead buy part of the planet.
Peavy-Braves ‘09
By Steve from OH
October 14, 2008 8:00 PM | Link to this
From the last blog…
It’s really a hard argument to win, regardless. I’m sure Luciano Pavarotti has (had) much more training, talent and technical expertise as a vocalist than, say, Roger Daltry circa 1970. But, I’d rather listen to Daltry than Pavarotti.
It’s not an argument that anyone can win, IMO. It’s all based on preference. I like technical wizardry (add that into good songwriting like Savatage and you’ve got a great band), where I do belive Hendrix is a little farther down on the list, and others love the complete package (I love it, too, for the record), where they think he is higher. It’s all good. Nobody’s right or wrong one way or the other. That’s why music is so great.
DOB, I’m not bashing Hendrix at all, not in the least. I’m just coming from (a very crappy) guitar player’s perspective, so I hope you don’t think that I’m some sort of classical music geek or anything (hey, I like to rock, what can I say?). Technically amazing players can have soul, you just might not hear it on the first listen.
Steve Howe? My guitar teacher really likes him, but I’ve never really listened to too much YES!…perhaps I should give them a gander. If anyone wants to hear some straight-up shredding, listen to George Lynch’s studio cut of “Mr. Scary.” I don’t think Hendrix had those chops….
By CharlieAlphaBravo
October 14, 2008 8:03 PM | Link to this
Mmmm…. Peavy.
By 22oz
October 14, 2008 8:03 PM | Link to this
New blog! Good for you DOB. I was gonna say you were obligated to write a new one after taking up so much space in the last one pasting the articles about the greatest guitar players.
By mbatl
October 14, 2008 8:04 PM | Link to this
Interesting stuff on the Yanks’ draft picks. They’ve picked near the end of the draft most of those years, so you might not demand a lot of greatness, but you’d still think they’d come up with something, somewhere.
They have drafted Joba, Ian Kennedy, and Phil Hughes… probably one good pitcher and two mediocre ones.
By Efrim
October 14, 2008 8:06 PM | Link to this
Gorkys Hernandez, Tyler Flowers, Cole Rohrbough and Kelly Johnson?
Yea, I would think about it if I was Kevin Towers. And that is a lot to give up if you were the Braves.
But I would rather trade that package like that, than anything that included Teheran, Hanson, Heyward, Schafer or Freeman.
Maybe that gets it done. I’d be ecstatic if it did.
By macdwolfpack
October 14, 2008 8:06 PM | Link to this
Dave, really appreciate the off-season info, helps get us through to the spring. Please keep it up, especially the trade info.
By Brian
October 14, 2008 8:07 PM | Link to this
When DOB talks, we listen!! Except of course when it comes to his playoff predictions and some of his music. Maybe that’s just me. Screw the campaigns, my eyes will be on Peavy all winter!! I like Baldelli too, but with his health-I don’t know.
By McFann Ô
October 14, 2008 8:11 PM | Link to this
N Nine—
I read that clip from Bowmen on the Braves website. Good to know.
By Steve from OH
October 14, 2008 8:14 PM | Link to this
Great blog, btw. I’m starting to think that we’re going to go hard for Peavy…don’t get my hopes too high, lol.
By Couch Tater
October 14, 2008 8:16 PM | Link to this
…OK, I know there will be some out there who question the validity of this e-mailers…
But, it’s better than telling your friends that your stock tips come from a guy named uga-brave who’s a late night drunken blogger on a Atlanta Braves blog.LOL
As I type Ray’s back to back jacks.
By N Nine
October 14, 2008 8:18 PM | Link to this
could we please leave off KJ on the peavy trade offers
By caballo muerto
October 14, 2008 8:18 PM | Link to this
GO RAYS
By Josh P.
October 14, 2008 8:20 PM | Link to this
Thanks DOB!
Pena to the plate, annndd…WHAMMY
Longoria to the plate. WHAMMY
By CharlieAlphaBravo
October 14, 2008 8:22 PM | Link to this
How about Kelly Johnson, Brandon Jones, and one of the pitching prospects (not Hanson) DOB mentioned earlier? I think that might get it done, and could potentially be a good trade for both teams.
If we needed to sweeten the pot to convince Towers, then we could add a mid-level prospect or draft pick.
I think that would be a reasonable offer for a player of Peavy’s caliber. Unfortunately reasonable may not be good enough. I believe we could even part with Schafer or Hernandez in lieu of Kelly or Brandon, and the trade would still be win-win.
Players that are as perfect a fit as Peavy is for the Braves don’t become available very often, and the Braves must do everything within reason to acquire the services of good ol’ Jake. Anything less would be irresponsible. Foretunately, we’ve got the best in the business working to make that a reality.
And so it begins….
By Coach (Skip will be missed)
October 14, 2008 8:23 PM | Link to this
To the peanut gallery, the last word concerning the cereal man. Yea, Coco Crisp and the 2008 season.
Coco Crisp: 118 games played, 361 at bats , 7 HR’s, 41 RBI, 55 runs scored, 20 stolen bases, .283 BA, .344 OBP, Switch hits.
Mark Kotsay: 110 games played, 402 at bats, 6 HR’s, 49 RBI, 45 runs scored, 2 stolen bases, .276 BA, 329 OBP, bats lefty.
But what’s even funnier, they are now on the same team and both are in tonight’s line up. Kotsay was traded, the Braves outfield is in shambles and Crisp is under contract through 2010.
I rest my case. Dear Frank Wren, you screwed up.
Rays 3 Red Sox batting, BOOM!
By mbatl
October 14, 2008 8:27 PM | Link to this
As I type Ray’s back to back jacks.
Yes, but I’m sure speed, bunting, giving up outs to move runners over must be the keys to success.
By hk
October 14, 2008 8:30 PM | Link to this
… College football division strength by AP raw scores …
http://www.mindspring.com/~hk3/div2008.htm
By Steve from OH
October 14, 2008 8:34 PM | Link to this
Sooo….we should have traded for Crisp instead of Kotsay? Or we shouldn’t have traded for Kotsay? Explain.
By N Nine
October 14, 2008 8:36 PM | Link to this
Brian yes i have to agree with you there. Baldelli has a history with DL’s.
This year’s injury was “different”—Talk spread that he had multiple sclerosis. Instead, extensive tests — conducted across the country, by a variety of specialists — revealed that he was suffering from a mitochondrial disorder, a neuromuscular disease.
He deals with muscle and hamstring pulls mostly.
Here’s a may 2007 article i just show title: D-Rays activate Norton to replace ailing Baldelli
Brian nice low blow on DOB with the playoff prediction. But really wouldn’t most people pick that? How are Angles out of it i have no idea.
By Elvis Ate America
October 14, 2008 8:44 PM | Link to this
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5XF_hxuMMcI
If wonder if I blasted, A little elvis presley, Would they pull me over and attempt to arrest me? I doubt, doubt it, They’ll probably start dancin, Jumpin on my knish and Wiggle and then jiggle and grab on they pelvis, But you know my name, so you never hear no Elvis
Elvis… white trash Elvis… the Memphis flash Elvis… didn’t smoke hash Would’ve been a sissy without Johnny Cash
Elvis… didn’t dodge the draft Elvis… had his own aircraft Elvis… having a laugh On the Lisa Marie in a color photograph
Elvis… under the hood Elvis… with Cadillac blood Elvis… darling bud Flowered and returned to the Mississippi mud
Elvis… ain’t gonna rot Elvis… in a Memphis plot Elvis… he didn’t hear the shot And Dr. King died just across the lot from…
Elvis… vanilla ice cream Elvis… girls of fourteen Elvis… the Memphis spleen Shooting TVs reading Corinthians’s 13
Elvis… with God on his knees Elvis… owned three TVs Here come the killer bees Head full of honey potato chips and cheese
Elvis… the bumper stickers Elvis… the white knickers Elvis… the white wigger Ate at king burger and just kept getting bigger
Elvis… sang to win Elvis… the battle hymn Elvis… the battle to be slim Elvis ate America before America ate him
Elvis… stamps Elvis… necromance Elvis… fans Elvis… psychophants Elvis… the public enemy Elvis… don’t mean knish to Chuck D. Elvis… changed the center of gravity Made it slippy
Elvis… Hitler Elvis… Nixon Elvis… Christ Elvis… Mishima Elvis… Markus Elvis… Jackson Elvis… the pelvis Elvis… the psalmist Elvis… the genius Elvis… generous Elvis… forgive us Elvis… pray for us Elvis… Aaron Elvis… Presley
Elvis was a hero to most, But he never meant knish to me you see, Straight up racist that sucker was, Simple and plain, Screw him and John Wayne
By McFann Ô
October 14, 2008 8:45 PM | Link to this
N Nine could we please leave off KJ on the peavy trade offers
I agree. Let’s keep him.
By f.n. hale
October 14, 2008 8:45 PM | Link to this
DOB, what is the argument that Howard is the MVP? The fact that he had a large number of RBI’s batting behind two absolute monsters in reaching base, or the fact that he had a really good September? I don’t think it would be reasonable to argue that he was the MVP of the Phillies, much less the NL. He had a couple of really bad months this year, unlike Pujols, who is an actual HITTER, not just a guy that is very strong and occasionally makes the ball go a really long way. BTW, Pujols also plays a much better first base. Not saying I wouldn’t want Howard on my team, but, MVP, no freakin’ way.
By TennesseePaul
October 14, 2008 8:46 PM | Link to this
I went to the game last night. My buddy sported a Phillie jersy. I couldn’t believe it. As soon as we met up to head to the game I saw it and said: “What, do you want to be killed tonight?” He just laughed. he’s a Yankee fan who grew up near Phillie as well. So Phillie is his NL team. Neither of us was rowdy or wild. We cheered good plays on both sides. But boy was that an interesting night.
After the Dodgers regained the lead the Dodger thugs begain their march of hatered. Name calling. Bottle throwing. Death threats. Next thing I know the yelling and projectiles had ceased. I turned around and saw we had our own personal security detail standing behind us. And then not one inning later Stairs and Victorino silenced the entire crowd. That was incredible. I’d never been in a place where suddenly 56,800 people died all at the same time. I had to double check Shane’s hit… “That was a home run right?” It was pretty cool.
The Dodgers are through. No way they come back from that and win 3 in a row. Not going to happen. They don’t have that kind of magic.
I’d like to see a 7 game world series. And if these Rays are anything like the ‘91 Braves, it will be one helluva showing. I’d like to see a Dirtbag get the ring as well. But knowing the NL East is the World Champion will make a miserable season a little easier to swallow.
Peavy… I’ll believe it when I see it. It would go a long way towards putting this team back on the right track.
By nolie
October 14, 2008 8:47 PM | Link to this
Steve Howe? My guitar teacher really likes him, but I’ve never really listened to too much YES!…perhaps I should give them a gander.Steve
I recommend that you do. Back in that day Howe was considered right at the top of the heap as far as guitar players went back then. I don’t know if you will really love the YES sound, but Steve was a beast.
By mbatl
October 14, 2008 8:47 PM | Link to this
Lew, great shoutout to Siberian Khatru. One of the all time greats, if you’re into that kinda thing.
By Josh P.
October 14, 2008 8:47 PM | Link to this
Willy Aybar puts the nail in Wakefield’s coffin. I keep thinking back to last year w/ the Indians, but it really looks like the Rays are going to knock the Sox out this year.
By David O'Brien
October 14, 2008 8:49 PM | Link to this
Willy Aybar bomb, Rays up 5-0.
Aybar being exactly the player the Braves thought they were getting, before he went off the tracks with booze and whatever else he was doing during his dark days last summer.
I’m happy for that kid, that he got straightened out this year to help a team possibly get to the World Series. Always seemed like a good guy, just extremely shy and withdrawn, and had the injury immediately upon joining Braves, then another the following spring. Never able to get healthy and comfortable with them. Now, he’s both.
By Daybed Wagmoe
October 14, 2008 8:50 PM | Link to this
All of this Peavy talk is really exciting. I’d love it if they succeed in bringing him to Atlanta, and I’d love it even more if “Peavy” and “Tommy John surgery” are never uttered in the same sentence (after this very one that I’m typing right now, of course).
Go Rays! 5-0 in the 3rd after knocking out Wakefield. I’d be very impressed if they can keep this kind of success going, especially at Fenway. Way to go Willy Aybar!!
By TennesseePaul
October 14, 2008 8:56 PM | Link to this
Speed gets a bad wrap these days it seems. It’s more than steal and bunts. It’s first to third on a single as well.
By Steve from OH
October 14, 2008 8:58 PM | Link to this
Nolie, I’m more familiar with their more popular stuff like “Owner of a Lonely Heart” and “Roundabout,” but I’ve never delved too deep into their collection. Howe has a very nice tone, though.
By Efrim
October 14, 2008 9:02 PM | Link to this
I’d like to keep Kelly Johnson too, but we do have to give up something more than 4 prospects not named Heyward, Hanson, Teheran, Freeman or Schafer…..right?
I mean, if we could do it, great. But I can’t imagine Kevin Towers not getting more sure things. Especially considering what the Orioles and A’s got for Bedard and Haren.
By McFann Ô
October 14, 2008 9:09 PM | Link to this
Wow…Sorry, BostonBravesGirl…I think it’s backfiring!
By David O'Brien
October 14, 2008 9:10 PM | Link to this
DOB, what is the argument that Howard is the MVP? The fact that he had a large number of RBI’s batting behind two absolute monsters in reaching base, or the fact that he had a really good September? f.n.hale
Oh, let’s see.
Led majors with 48 homers and 146 RBI.
From July 1 to the end of the season, he hit .288 with 28 homers and 78 RBI in 79 games, with a .368 OBP and .629 slugging percentage.
And during the Phillies’ 28-13 run in their last 41 games to wrap up the NL East title, Howard hit .300 with 15 homers, 43 RBI and a 1.096 OPS while playing all 41 games.
Yeah, you’re right, “no freakin’ way.” We’ll talk on the day the NL MVP award is announced. You say “no freakin’ way” he wins; I say he finishes first or second in a close race with Pujols.
By the way, after July 1, while Howard was hitting .288 with 28 homers, 78 RBI and a .997 OPS, Chase Utley was hitting .286 with 10 homers, 39 RBI and an .831 OPS (.375 OBP), and Pat Burrell was hitting .230 (yes, .230) with 14 homers, 37 RBI and a .766 OPS.
During the torrid Phils finish beginning Sept. 15, the 41-game stretch when they clinched the NL East, Burrell hit .210 with six homers and 18 RBI and a .391 slugging percentage in 38 games.
By MiamiBeachBravesFan
October 14, 2008 9:18 PM | Link to this
Is it just me, or is Lowe a career regular season slacker, muddling along at barely above .500, who pitches well when the playoff lights shine - only to not finish the job in Game 1 against the Phils. He’s 35 and not the prime pitcher he was back in 2004 when he closed three playoff series for the BoSox.
Peavy? Again, giving away too much for a guy who is a heartbeat away from Tommy John surgery is a mistake the Braves can ill afford to make, especially after the Teixeira debacle.
Sign Smoltz, Glavine, and Hampton. Hell, trade for Maddux after this post season. He could be had for peanuts and a batting donut. Let’s do it like “Space Cowboys” and have them around for one last roundup - that would be awesome!
Really, I’m not kidding! My fanny would be up in The A-T-L for a four game series with that quartet. As for winning baseball? Stranger stories in baseball lore have been written in the past.
Let the pitching pups have one more season of seasoning in the minors before they get their moment in ‘10. Keep our budding position players. Rebuild and enjoy our talented youth. Be the next Tampa Bay Rays or Florida Marlins.
Don’t trade our farm system away.
By Steve from OH
October 14, 2008 9:19 PM | Link to this
Efrim, maybe Peavy is quietly pressuring Towers to move him? That might lower his price a bit…
By MiamiBeachBravesFan
October 14, 2008 9:20 PM | Link to this
PS
Smoltz/Glavine/Hampton/Maddux in ‘09
By McFann Ô
October 14, 2008 9:21 PM | Link to this
Steve from OH—
Owner of a Lonely Heart is a great song!
By THB
October 14, 2008 9:22 PM | Link to this
What does anyone think of going after Oliver Perez in addition to Peavy? Both are 27, Perez is a solid #3 who can definetely be a #2 to pair with Peavy in Jurrjens. We would have money left over to go after a LF, but probably not through trade because we will have to give up a good amount of prospects for Peavy.
By Randy S
October 14, 2008 9:30 PM | Link to this
I don’t know if the rock guitarist discussion is still going on, but I will toss a name into the mix that I haven’t seen yet: Trey Anastasio. Say what you will about Phish (I personally love them) but Trey is an exceptional guitarist, in many styles, including rock. For pure rock, I’d have Hendrix and Page ahead of him, but Anastasio can wail. Flat out.
By 22oz
October 14, 2008 9:33 PM | Link to this
It breaks my heart to see these Red Sox fans quiet.
By mbatl
October 14, 2008 9:34 PM | Link to this
THB, Perez walked 105 batters in 194 innings in 2008 (that’s almost 5 per 9 innings); it’s really his big weakness.
Plus the fact that he’s a Boras client… which means he’d cost more than he’s worth.
I really wouldn’t mind having him on my team, but those are a couple of pretty big drawbacks.
By Efrim
October 14, 2008 9:39 PM | Link to this
Steve from OH
It’s possible, but Kevin Towers is going to be there after that deal is made. Not Jake Peavy. So Towers is going to have to hear it from the media if the return for Peavy isn’t up to their standards.
By f.n. hale
October 14, 2008 9:42 PM | Link to this
DOB, I didn’t mean no freakin’ way he wins. What I meant was, no freakin’ way he should win. Howard’s HR numbers are impressive, for sure, but heck, I could have driven in 100 batting behind the guys he batted behind. The guy had a really good HALF season, and a phenomenal last month, and I don’t disagree that he’ll get a lot of votes, but he wouldn’t get mine. I would argue that he and Burrell were both well behind Utley for team MVP. The guy hit .251 for the year and was 13th in slugging and not even on the radar in OBP in the league. He had an .881 OPS for chrissakes. He struck out more often than Adam Dunn who is the supposed poster boy for all or nothing and he had fewer doubles than any other first baseman in the NL. I love home runs, but I just think OPS is a much better indicator of value as a hitter than RBI’s.
By BostonBravesGirl
October 14, 2008 9:44 PM | Link to this
I wondered if that Aybar was the Braves Aybar; he does have the Sox number, doesn’t he? The Rays have had Wake’s number all year.
Just keep trying, McFann!
By Steve from OH
October 14, 2008 9:44 PM | Link to this
Efrim, that’s true. The real price, at least for me, is gonna be somewhere between the huge haul that the O’s got for Bedard and the “Thorman, Gotay and a bag of balls” deals that many of us want, lol.
I’m thinking Brandon Jones, Tyler Flowers, Reyes, and Rohrbough. Would you do that deal?
By caballo muerto
October 14, 2008 9:48 PM | Link to this
I’m loving this game! GO RAYS!
The downside, listening to Chip Caray is like listening to a 7th grader.
MUTE button
By McFann Ô
October 14, 2008 9:56 PM | Link to this
BostonBravesGirl—
OK! I will!
Hey! Javy Lopez!
; )
By caballo muerto
October 14, 2008 9:59 PM | Link to this
PUMMEL PUMMEL PUMMEL
By BostonBravesGirl
October 14, 2008 10:01 PM | Link to this
caballo muerto, I agree with your comment about Chip Caray 100%. He makes me cringe.
By N8
October 14, 2008 10:03 PM | Link to this
DOB
I’m gonna have to disagree with you.
While Philly has made the Dodgers look like the mediocre “we won the weak west” team that they are, these Rays look un-frickin-beatable right now.
I’m not so sure anybody is beating them in the WS, which it appears they are well on there way to participating in.
They play the same style of ball that the NL teams (including the Phillies) do, only I think they play it better.
Pitcher, defense, speed, speed and more speed and the ever so present “timely” hitting.
On a side note, it’s very nice to see that the rest of the world is starting to admit, and agree with what I’ve been saying for 5+ months…..Tex is overrated. Earlier in the year, I went BACK AND FORTH with BA about a comment I made saying that Tex should have hit 6th in the order while he was in the middle of his typical slow start.
I have to apologize. I gave Tex too much credit. He should have been dropped to 7th in the order. LOL! Just kidding BA, don’t get your panties in a bunch.
Hope somebody enjoys the (ahem) “investment”. Mark it down (no pun intended), in about 5 years whoever he signs with is going to be looking to uload his azz (and ridiculously high salary (in relative terms) - think Jason Giambi - having not won a title with him.
Thank god it won’t be Frank Wren and the Braves.
On another side topic, what are the odds of us making a trade with the Dodgers (with them eating ALL of his money), for Andruw to be our 4th outfielder next year. Maybe he can platoon in LF with Brandon Jones. :-)
By McFann Ô
October 14, 2008 10:04 PM | Link to this
Wow…hard to tell who’s gonna win this one…
Night, all!
By caballo muerto
October 14, 2008 10:04 PM | Link to this
I’m going to miss watching Terry Francona chomping his jawfull of chaw, and spewing it everywhere - NOT!
maybe he should take up nose-picking?
By Brian
October 14, 2008 10:04 PM | Link to this
N Nine- Yeah, that sucks about Baldelli’s health because I think with the Rays having a pretty deep lineup, we could trade for him. Still could,though. I don’t think DOB cares for me bashing some of his music(his passion). Can’t say I blame him! I wonder if he likes Live or ACDC?
By jj
October 14, 2008 10:05 PM | Link to this
Get Peavy! lets see if Wren is as good as JS in getting the trade done.
World Series Phillie and Rays.
Rays 11 bos 1….Rays come to play.
By Efrim
October 14, 2008 10:06 PM | Link to this
Steve from OH
I’m thinking Brandon Jones, Tyler Flowers, Reyes, and Rohrbough. Would you do that deal?
Think of it from the Padres perspective, please. I just can’t see them taking a deal like that.
By VolBrave
October 14, 2008 10:12 PM | Link to this
DOB
‘91 Braves vs. ‘08 Rays
How much does this ‘08 Rays team remind you of the ‘91 Braves? Lots of similarities. Young, power, speed, pitching, enthusiasm and with nothing to lose. And of course, Worst to First.
Carl Crawford= Ron Gant
Sonnanstine= Smoltz
Etc.
Was curious to see if you had other parallels from those two teams?
(sorry for the re-post)
By Atown
October 14, 2008 10:15 PM | Link to this
I love the Peavy talk/hype. I believe the ‘source’. It’s every southern boys dream to play for the Bravos. We’ll get him.
By Lew
October 14, 2008 10:16 PM | Link to this
Jason-Get in touch, Dude.
By BrandonC
October 14, 2008 10:17 PM | Link to this
DOB, I’v heard you mention that you think Schafer will be starting in CF out of ST, but Bowman wrote that he doesn’t think that will happen. Do you have any concensus on what the front office is thinking? If he’s not the opening day CF then does Atlanta get another stop-gap, or just use Anderson?
Like most people on here I’m excited by the possibilty of Jake being the ace of this staff next year, but realistcally it’s not going to be a walk in the park to get him. I do think we have the right pieces to get it done, but I can only hope that Heyward, Hanson, Schafer, Tehran and Freeman aren’t in the offer. I think the quicker we can pull a trade like this off the better. It lets other possible free agents realize that the Braves are serious about putting a contender back on the field next year.
If we could pull the trade off and maybe go get a Jon Garland/Derek Lowe we would have on of the best, if not THE best 1-2-3 puches in the NL.
By caballo muerto
October 14, 2008 10:17 PM | Link to this
BBGirl, it’s unbelievable, really.
Sorry about your team, but you’ve broken the curse, won 2 WS. You’re no longer the underdog.
Take care.
By StingerSplash
October 14, 2008 10:21 PM | Link to this
I am so disgusted with tonight’s effort, or lack thereof, by the Old Towne Team that I have taken to instead watching the Colorado-Calgary NHL game. Look, Sox haters, we wandered aimlessly in the desert for generations until 2004. There was heartbreak in 46, 48 (look it up), 67, 72 (look that one up too, since the lockout cost the Red Sox, who finished a half game behind the Tigers), 75 (Jim Burton? WTF?), 78 (Bucky F. Dent. WTF?), 86 … and “he’s going to leave Pedro in” in 03. Even my late old man, a Sox fan for 65 years, was forced to utter “why is he doing that?”. I knew this series was over when the Red Sox tied Saturday night’s game but couldn’t get a scratch off Dan Wheeler. That guy is the real MVP of the series with 3 1/3 of scoreless relief that endless night. He saved Tampa Bay’s bacon right then and there in Game 2. Upton, Longoria and Pena have been killing it since, but Wheeler allowed them to make it 1-1 and ease their nerves a lot.
By Steve from OH
October 14, 2008 10:25 PM | Link to this
Efrim, if they’re going to trade him, they’re probably going to have to take something in between that and the Bedard haul. I think teams are scared of giving up too much after seeing those recent deals (including the Teixeira deal). Can you see them getting any sort of a reasonable package from the Yankees (that doesn’t include Phil Hughes or Joba?)? Or from the Mets? I don’t think they’re going to just give him away, but they’re not going to get a huge haul like the M’s did, I think, unless a lot of teams jump into the bidding. Who are the other suitors, if any are known?
I mean, I totally see your point of view, but in lieu of Frank Wren’s recent comments…well, if he’s coming to us they’re going to have to settle for quantity over quality, I think. Two days ago, I would have totally agreed with you, but I think DOB’s new blog today has gotten my hopes up….
By matt r
October 14, 2008 10:28 PM | Link to this
DOB, thank you for proving me wrong that you were not just trying to drive up web traffic and backing it up with some good stuff. I am officially pumped about this possibility and we should be willing to bet the ‘farm’ on him.
In other news, ARTHUR BLANK WHAT ARE YOU DOING??? WE DON’T NEED NO STINKIN SOCCER TEAM! BUY THE BRAVES, FOR THE LOVE OF GOD!!!
By Brian
October 14, 2008 10:30 PM | Link to this
Stephen King is going to write a horror movie about this series-“Children of the Rays”
By Epinephrine
October 14, 2008 10:32 PM | Link to this
Great blogging DOB. Have to say it is nicer round these parts during Spring Training and the offseason.
Peavy would be huge. Absolutely huge. Last time I wrote it off, but I am starting to think this story has legs. Between Prado/KJ and Schafer/Gorkys, plus the arms and depth at short, the Braves should have the ability to move some prospects without devastating the farm. We’ll see, but it would be great to get a bona fide ace. Certainly would take the pressure of Jair and Morton, wouldn’t it?
Still not sold on the Hold Steady album though. Still giving it a try. The Walkmen and TV on the Radio, on the other hand…great albums.
By f.n. hale
October 14, 2008 10:37 PM | Link to this
Gotta love Kotsay! What a play at first, huh?
By keylargo
October 14, 2008 10:40 PM | Link to this
caballo muerto
Maybe his habbit is more of a concern to his dentist.
TBS reported that Terry Francona went through a 72-piece box of bubblegum during Game 2.
By cory withers
October 14, 2008 10:43 PM | Link to this
i really hope the braves can sign peavy. he’s my favorite pitcher that isn’t already a brave and i would love to see him in an atlanta uniform. i think i’d rather see the braves give up someone else rather than josh anderson because i think hes the answer for the centerfield spot. but iam curious to see who the braves will go after as a power hitting outfielder or do you think they will even go after one?
By caballo muerto
October 14, 2008 10:43 PM | Link to this
Brian, how about the “Tampyknockers?”
By Tomahawkin
October 14, 2008 10:44 PM | Link to this
I know I’m in the minority but Peavy is owed a lot of money for the rest of the duration of his contract…
Didn’t we go that route with Mike Hampton at a similiar age…?
Also any rumor on the braves going out to get Delmon Young…?
I Would much rather see a young cat here via trade than overpaying for an aging slugger (Burrell) or signing a guy whose offensive production will fall (A. Dunn) as a result of playing half of his games at Turner Field…
By Efrim
October 14, 2008 10:50 PM | Link to this
Steve from OH
Shouldn’t those trades make Kevin Towers want ot hold out for similar deals?
I guess we will see. That is all I can really say. And, although it was said that Peavy won’t accept a trade to the AL, would he really give up a chance to play with the Boston Red Sox? In terms of the package that they could give up, well, Lars Anderson/Michael Bowden would be a pretty nice start. Would Boston do it? Who knows. But they have the prospects.
By cabravesfan
October 14, 2008 10:51 PM | Link to this
I have to agree with N Nine and McFann- I think trading KJ would open a problem that we don’t need- as much as I like Martin Prado I am not totally confident that he is an everyday player- and he is much to valuable off the bench… but I would do almost anything to get Peavy into a Braves uniform- always been a big fan…
as for Willy Aybar- I am really glad to see him has some success after all he went through when he was in Atlanta- of course was not fully aware of everything he went through when he was here and was one that was not overly high on him- but knowing a little more now I am glad he has been able to overcome his issues and is playing well for a good team- good for him.
By Tomahawkin
October 14, 2008 10:52 PM | Link to this
MiamiBeachBravesFan I also agree on Lowe, The only reason he gets so much press is because ESPN was all over him when he was with Boston…
He didn’t show me a whole lot last night…Other than that he will enter Free Agency as a mediocre 35 year-old, who will be overpaid by some team, and hopefully we will not be the one’s to do so…
By BostonBravesGirl
October 14, 2008 10:56 PM | Link to this
cab muerto, Francona gave up chewing tobacco a couple of seasons ago and now goes through a tub of Double Bubble every game. Better bad teeth than throat cancer I suppose, but it’s not any prettier to watch!
And I don’t care about underdogs, overdogs or sideways dogs, I just want to see some baseball! I like the Sox getting three runs in the bottom of the 8th; might be too little too late but at least they’re working it!
By caballo muerto
October 14, 2008 10:56 PM | Link to this
keylargo, all that stuff is chewing gum? I thought I heard that, then I watched him chaw. Sure looked like ter-backy chewing to me. Maybe he’s trying to kick the habit.
By Efrim
October 14, 2008 10:57 PM | Link to this
Just seeing Edwin Jackson blow away Bay there, I really think that he may be a pitcher the Braves could go after. Not sure what the Rays need, but it’s a guy that could use a move out of the AL East. He certainly has the stuff to be missing more bats.
By Brian
October 14, 2008 10:58 PM | Link to this
caballo muerto - OK, but I kinda like the the “Children” thing beacause the Rays are young.
By Tomas
October 14, 2008 11:05 PM | Link to this
Nice Blog DOB,
First I would like to say Peavy is a tremendous pitcher in any park, and he would be a perfect fit, and it also has become clear that Towers will ask for the best. If I were Wren I wouldn’t trade Hanson, Kelly, or Heyward. Freedman in the other hand I would trade, just because I have confidence in Kotchman. Kotchman is a great fielder, and I saw a good line drive hitter this last month, and he is 27 yrs old. It’s sort of like when the Braves traded Salty, because they already had a proven young catcher in McCann. Trade either Schafer or Hernandez(I’d trade Schafer, because he is left handed, and very similar to Josh Anderson, and Hernandez has more speed).
Also add an arm to the deal. Cole Rohrbough, Jeff Locke, Kris Medlen, James Parr, Jo-jo Reyes, Scott Diamond and/or Todd Redmond, I really haven’t heard much of them, except Reyes, and Parr, and I know Redmond came in the Tyler Yates deal. And if that’s not enough add Lillibridge, or Brandon Jones, and if the SD want more give them the finger and go to free agency.
By nolie
October 14, 2008 11:10 PM | Link to this
Just finished Indiana Jones & the Kingdom of the Crystal Skull on DVD. I did not see it in the theater. A pleasant nostalgia piece, but not nearly as good as even the least of the first three.
By caballo muerto
October 14, 2008 11:12 PM | Link to this
Brian, I’m with you on Children of the Rays. It’s better than Tampyknockers. I just gave a glance to my bookcase, and that’s all I came up with (still, I cracked myself up over it).
BBGirl, thanks for clearing that up. I like to know what flavor of sputum I’m watching. ;-)
By Steve from OH
October 14, 2008 11:14 PM | Link to this
Efrim, sure, he’ll try to hold out for those deals (if I’m Towers, I would be hell-bent on getting one too), but I can’t see him getting one, especially if Peavy will be dictating which teams he will and will not consider. If Peavy limits the competition, this puts the Braves in a situation to have much better leverage IMO.
Don’t get me wrong, he’s going to get a huge haul, but it won’t be full of mega prospects and good everyday MLB players. If I’m the GM, one player (no matter how good) isn’t worth Kelly Johnson, Jason Heyward, and Tommy Hanson, or a combo of the two interspersed with good low-level prospects. That hurts our team now and definitely in the future. There are ways around giving up those guys and still making a competitive offer, I think.
By Tim
October 14, 2008 11:15 PM | Link to this
DOB A couple of days before you posted that blog about Peavy I was talking to a friend about the possibly trying to trade for Peavy. This kinda reminds me of when we got Hudson. I mean the talk there was that the Braves were the 3rd or 4th choice because they supposedly didn’t have the players to trade to the A’s for Hudson. But the Braves found a way to make it happened and it was Hudson’s dream to play for the Braves.
This is the same kind of deal. People thinking the Braves don’t have the prospects but I really do believe the Braves have the prospects to trade without giving up the IMO most important prospect Jason Heyward. As you said Peavy wants to play for the Braves and he may just force the Padres hand if they really want to trade him.
Also I agree with a post you made a couple weeks ago about Josh Willingham. I would totally trade a couple of lower level prospects for him. When healthy he is a 25 homerun guy.
I’m aslo predicting a comeback year for Frenchy. .275 BA, 25 HR, 95 RBI.
By Steve from OH
October 14, 2008 11:16 PM | Link to this
Efrim, I think that you’re talking about giving up way too much from the Braves’ perspective, and I’m talking about giving up too little from the Padres’ perspective. The true price will lie somewhere in between.
By Adam
October 14, 2008 11:21 PM | Link to this
DOB - heard an interesting rumor and I’d love to get your take on it. Rumor was that if Andruw Jones plays well in winter ball, after getting his knee scoped and working with his father on his swing, the Dodgers want to trade him back to Atlanta, and are willing to eat as much as 70% of his 2009 salary. If true, or even close to true, would the Braves take a chance on him for one more season?
By uga-brave
October 14, 2008 11:24 PM | Link to this
willie aybar tonight, one homerun 5 rbi.
jeff francoeur july, one homerun 6 rbi.
By keylargo
October 14, 2008 11:27 PM | Link to this
Steve from OH
I agree with you that we won’t give up mega prospects and everyday players but I also don’t think that will keep Towers from asking for them.
What scares me about the trade is that Towers will probably ask 6 or 8 teams for that boatload of players/top prospects and hope one of them will jump. That’s where, like you said, we would really profit from Peavy saying I’ll only go to Atlanta, Houston and Tampa.
If we’re bidding against every team in the eastern and central divisions, we may not be able to get him.
By David O'Brien
October 14, 2008 11:34 PM | Link to this
What’s up with Jonny Gomes? Dude’s not even on the playoff roster, but he’s the one who gets the most camera time in the Rays dugout. Every time they show the dugout, he’s there with that mohawk, in uniform, with the windshirt on instead of a jersey, chomping on gum and always aware of that red light being on atop the camera.
Tough guys should stay in the background, be there to shake hands or talk to a teammate, or to help enforce if necessary. They should not be front and center in the dugout, capless and showing off for the camera when not on the postseason roster.
By keylargo
October 14, 2008 11:36 PM | Link to this
Adam
You ever have an old girlfriend you broke up with, gain about 50 pounds, develop some really ugly habits, date some really questionable characters, and come back around trying to get back with you?
LOL, Adam, I hope that answers your question.
By Efrim
October 14, 2008 11:40 PM | Link to this
Steve from OH
Okay. Here is something in the middle.
Flowers, Rohrbough, Hernandez, and another lower level pitcher. Who knows. We’ll find within the next six weeks. It should be exciting.
By Tomahawkin
October 14, 2008 11:42 PM | Link to this
MiamiBeachBravesFan I also agree on Lowe, The only reason he gets so much press is because ESPN was all over him when he was with Boston…
He didn’t show me a whole lot last night…Other than that he will enter Free Agency as a mediocre 35 year-old, who will be overpaid by some team, and hopefully we will not be the one’s to do so…
By David O'Brien
October 14, 2008 11:45 PM | Link to this
Having said that about Gomes, I should add that I really like watching this Rays team play. They seem to have a bunch of good young guys who enjoy playing and like being on a team together. That’s cool to see. Love watching Upton, who makes it look so easy at times.
Now if one of them would tell Gomes to put a cap on and sit down on the bench, not stand at the top step looking for the camera and showing off his hair.
By David O'Brien
October 14, 2008 11:48 PM | Link to this
Adam, where’d you hear that rumor, at the vending machine in the office break room?
By scottbravesfan
October 14, 2008 11:49 PM | Link to this
They should trade for Peavy and still try and sign Derek Lowe. That would be an awesome one two punch followed by Jair. Then maybe Smoltz or Glavine can come back as a number 4 and go with a young guy as your 5th starter.
By Moby Grape
October 14, 2008 11:53 PM | Link to this
I’m thinking Brandon Jones, Tyler Flowers, Reyes, and Rohrbough. Would you do that deal?Steve
Not if I’m Towers I wouldn’t, and I’m pretty certain that other teams will offer him more than that. In fact, I think it might easily be close to the Bedard deal to get him.No way I trade him to the Braves and not get one of the top 3 or two of the top 5 prospects back. Reyes has next to no trade value at all right now realistically. Only Flowers is a real hot prospect of the guys you mentioned. Gonna take more than that.Cole is very promising, but had a kinda ho-hum year in some ways. After all it’s not how we value them, it’s how others perceive them.
By David O'Brien
October 15, 2008 12:05 AM | Link to this
Steve, no way Padres do that deal.
By Steve from OH
October 15, 2008 12:10 AM | Link to this
Moby, Efrim, the only reason I’m being a little conservative is because Frank has already said he’s not giving up the farm. Unless he’s lying through his teeth, he’s not going to give up our blue-chippers like Heyward to get him, so I’m trying to be creative here.
I mean, if I’m Towers, I’m asking for the moon, no doubt (Keylargo, I would be shocked if the asking price didn’t start there, but Wren would probably laugh him off the phone), but I can’t see him getting it…Efrim, I liked your proposal, but we’d probably have to add two young pitchers…I’ll say Casey Hodges and David Francis or Todd Redmond. That’s a deal I would do if I were FW. If I were Towers? Depends if Peavy insists on going or not, payroll situation, etc. In a vacuum? Probably not. But this trade won’t occur in a vacuum, so that’s why I’ll say that his return will be a little lower than most think. I don’t really see that much of a difference in our perspectives.
The only team that really scares me on the bidding for Peavy is Boston (and Texas). They have the pieces to get him. The Yankees don’t, IMO, unless they part with Hughes or Kennedy. The Mets don’t, the Phillies probably don’t unless they give up Carrasco (even then, I dunno), Houston definitely doesn’t…if Peavy really doesn’t want to go to the AL, then we’ve gained a lot of leverage right there.
Who knows, maybe I’m just hoping that we pull off another Hudson-type steal. But I definitely don’t think that we can sustain another Tex-like deal.
By Braveheart
October 15, 2008 12:36 AM | Link to this
Tough guys should stay in the background, be there to shake hands or talk to a teammate, or to help enforce if necessary. They should not be front and center in the dugout, capless and showing off for the camera when not on the postseason roster.
That was DOB’s way of telling Johnny “psycho” Gomes to “lighten up Francis”:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LrllCZw8jiM
By nolie
October 15, 2008 12:42 AM | Link to this
I think Wren was not thinking about getting Peavy when he said not trading the top 5. I enjoy all your posts Steve, but I think you’re a little light here, so it’s PILE ON TIME. C’mon everybody, let’s get Stevie…. Sorry dude.
By Coach (Skip will be missed)
October 15, 2008 12:50 AM | Link to this
The knuckler didn’t knuckle and Wakefield was batting practice cannon fodder. I don’t think Wakefield will be back with the BoSox in 2009 and that’s not based on tonight’s performance. He pitched ok with 18 quality starts and a respectable 4.13 ERA with 10 wins in 30 trips to the bump.
The Red Sox finished 15-15 as a team in Wakefield’s 30 starts and his 181 innings was Tim’s lowest total since 2002. I just think the Red Sox will go with one of their young arms waiting in the wings.
Nevertheless, these Rays look like World Champions already. The Phillies better bring their A game.
With all the outstanding pitching the Rays are getting from the rest of their rotation, Edwin Jackson looks like the odd man out. Especially with David Price about to bust into the Rays rotation in 2009.
Anybody care to speculate what the Rays would want in trade for Jackson? The 24 year old right hander went 14-11 with an ERA of 4.42 and 15 quality starts in 32 games.
Here is his scouting report:
Easily pounds fastballs in at 95-plus m.p.h. aggressively, while complimenting it with an improving arsenal—including a slider and change-up.
Struggles to put together a game plan. Has trouble lasting seven innings. When he’s not on top of his game, he’s simply awful. Control is a big problem.
A high-risk/high-reward starter.
By brian
October 15, 2008 1:13 AM | Link to this
I could see the Braves having to give up Kelly, Schafer, and Rohrbough/Medlin for Peavy.
I just do not see the Braves trading away Hanson, Jurrjens, Teaheran, or Heyward.
No way do I see (or hopefully no way will I ever see) Wren giving up Schafer, Hanson, and Heyward for Peavy - or anyone for that matter
By Coach (Skip will be missed)
October 15, 2008 1:38 AM | Link to this
David O’Brien. I love the blog, but please. For the last time, Jake Peavy is damaged goods. He is not the Cy Young pitcher we saw in 2007. His elbow is about to EXPLODE.
Nobody is going to listen to me, so here, From the EXPERT:
Chris Oleary
By BA
October 15, 2008 3:38 AM | Link to this
DOB, you’ve got me worked up in a damn frenzy with this Peavy business. I hope they don’t move Rohrbough. And I’m partial to Flowers- but he’s kind of blocked (especially if Kotchman turns into a Gold Glove .300-20-100). I think Rohrbough might be a little closer to being ready than Locke, but Locke was lights out two years ago. And Diamond was lights out this year…if I was a MLB gm my head might just spin off!
That having been said, I’d trade Johnson, Schafer, Redmond, Heath and throw in one of those young ballers at Myrtle Beach that hit 20+ homers on ‘08- you’d have about five to choose from OTHER than Flowers. If they don’t want Heath, I’d send Locke or Diamond- but only if it was absolutely neccesary (and pull back my Myrtle Beach slugger).
When I originally referred to equipment (and I type tenuously here, because I couldn’t bear one of those rat’s azz style scoldings) I meant the recording stuff, because most of us weren’t able to hear him in person, and the studios of the time just weren’t capable of capturing the kind of range of sounds that Hendrix could generate. And I think this frustrated him, and contributed to the long recording process of Electric Ladyland.
However, in guitar in particular, I think the soul that you’re talking about comes out through equipment selection, because every individual creates their own sound.
Hendrix played lefty, but his guitars were strung for a righthander. He played that stuff upside down. That certainly contributed to his sound, the way his soul came out.
Of course, it was far more than that. Townsend really hit it on the head. This is a damn good blog. DOB, make me believe they’re trading for Oswalt, too. Or at least signing Garland.
By ccrider
October 15, 2008 4:32 AM | Link to this
Coach, No Offense, but who is Chris O’Leary? Never heard of him and after visiting his site I still know nothing about him other than his self professed expertise on pitching motions and batting stances. Where is this resume with major league teams? He could be right of course, but you could make a prediction of this sort on any quality pitcher whose has thrown as many innings as Peavy over the last 6 years. I think I’ll leave the decisions on whether to pursue a trade for Peavy to Frank Wren and the Braves Scouts, thank you very much.
By Coach (Skip will be missed)
October 15, 2008 6:37 AM | Link to this
Ccrider, if you had actually perused his website, you wouldn’t be asking me who he is. I won’t go any farther than that. I don’t suppose you would know who Chris Lincecum is either? What about Biomechanics? Live and learn.
By ncscoots
October 15, 2008 6:42 AM | Link to this
I’d trade Schafer, because he is left handed, and very similar to Josh Anderson, and Hernandez has more speed).
No offense, but, that would be, well, wrong. Josh Anderson is simillar to Jordan Schafer only in that they both play the OF and have speed. And while Hernandez is probably a little quicker than Schafer, it’s not difference-making speed. Beating the throw to 2B by .04 instead of .02 means absolutely zip. Schafer is plenty quick, believe me.
In any trade deal this offseason, I consider Schafer one guy who can’t be moved. He’s too close to helping the ML squad, and the Braves may need that help if Johnson has to be included in a deal.
By GermanBravesFan
October 15, 2008 7:56 AM | Link to this
Interesting discussions! I guess trades always work in regards to both teams’ needs. IF (I am capitalizing the word on purpose) the Padres were to trade Peavy, what would they be looking for in return? Also, if the Braves were lucky enough to get Peavy and gave up K. Johnson in that trade, who would play second base for the Braves next year? Lot of “if’s” involved here. Nevertheless, getting Peavy would be a good first step towards re-claiming the NL East crown!!
By David O'Brien
October 15, 2008 8:11 AM | Link to this
Good morning.
The Shield and House, quite the 1-2 combo on DVR late last night. Two damn fine shows. And is there anything on TV funnier than It’s Always Sunny In Philadelphia? Great dark humor. Laugh-out-loud stuff, always.
OK, time to ride out to Stone Mountain to get the bike serviced. A little chillier this morning, gonna feel nice on that highway. Time to wake up.
By matt_T
October 15, 2008 8:28 AM | Link to this
Stay Positive is my favorite CD of the yar so far. I saw them over the summer at the 40 Watt in Athens and was blown away. Less than 500 people there, but everyone of us was as close to the stage as possible, and the band played for 2.5 hours, 27 or so song and was on point.
They’re coming in town Nov. 1st with the Drive by Truckers, but that’s the same night as Georgia/Florida.
By Hoosier Aaron
October 15, 2008 8:30 AM | Link to this
Peavy will make $11 million in 2009, $15 million in 2010, $16 million in 2011 and $17 million in 2012. There’s also a big $22-million team option for 2013, with a $4 million buyout.
When you consider the players we’d give up PLUS at least $63 million over four years - NO WAY! That’s another Mike Hampton situation waiting to happen.
There were over 40 pitchers that won 12 - 17 games this year. Seven pitchers won more than 17 - of those only Dice-K made it to the playoffs. I’d much rather take my chances with a 12 - 17 game winner for much less money. 3 - 5 wins for that amount of money - just not worth it. If I thought Peavy was the difference maker of us winning the World Series - yeah. However, we have too many other needs to tie up that much salary for one guy.
If the Friars will pick up half the salary - let’s talk.
By GermanBravesFan
October 15, 2008 8:41 AM | Link to this
Hoosier Aaron: don’t you think Peavy would have won a couple more games had he pitched for a different (better) team, e.g. the Red Sox? Just a thought…
By Bill Cody
October 15, 2008 8:41 AM | Link to this
The Padres need to unload some of their larger contracts, they also want to trade their shortstop Greene. The Braves could go after Peavy and Gonzalez (first baseman) who is home run hitter in a pitchers park. The Braves could offer Kochman, Kelly Johnson, Lillebridge, Blanco, Jones (OF), Reyes, James, plus 2 younger pitchers (not top flight). This would save the Padres a lot of money and get them many young players to start building with. What is your opinion ?
By Efrim
October 15, 2008 8:46 AM | Link to this
ncscoots
In any trade deal this offseason, I consider Schafer one guy who can’t be moved. He’s too close to helping the ML squad, and the Braves may need that help if Johnson has to be included in a deal.
I would throw Heyward in there too. I think everyone else would probably be up for grabs. But the Braves can’t trade Heyward. I could see a scenario where they trade Hanson.
I mean, I want the Braves to be competitive too, but I really don’t want to sacrifice the farm to get Peavy. Especially when we can be free agent players. Not to say that we will be spending tons of dough on just free agents……
But this is the ONE YEAR where we don’t have to trade any of our prospects to get better.
By GermanBravesFan
October 15, 2008 8:48 AM | Link to this
Besides: with approximately $45 million to spend and Peavy taking up $11 million next year, there is still plenty left for a solid left fielder and another starter!
By GermanBravesFan
October 15, 2008 8:52 AM | Link to this
Bill Cody: who would play second base for the Braves?
By Shaun
October 15, 2008 8:55 AM | Link to this
f.n. hale, I’m with you. Howard has a good chance to steal the MVP again. Great player, wish the Braves had him, but MVP in 2008? He wasn’t even the most valuable player on his own team; that was Chase Utley.
Howard could win because some of the voters are likely to ignore that he was bad early on and that part of the season counts too, and they are likely to ignore how many outs he costs his team relative to someone like Utley or even Jason Werth or Pat Burrell.
Utley has a far superior batting average and on-base and he’s fairly close in slugging as a secondbaseman. And I don’t think anyone would argue Howard is the better fielder or baserunner. For all those who rant against players who strikeout too much and value sacrifices, Utley is ahead in those categories, too.
By McFann Ô
October 15, 2008 8:56 AM | Link to this
I feel bad, Turnin2! I’d really like to see your photos!
Sorry, BostonBravesGirl…Truth be told, I really was rooting for the Rays, it’s just that for once the team I picked won…
cabravesfan—
Yeah, they need to hang on to Johnson.
And I’m glad for Aybar, too. A homer and five RBI last night? Good for him! Always nice to see guys overcome issues and go on to play well.
I HOPE THE RAYS CANN BEAT THEM FILLIES!!
By GermanBravesFan
October 15, 2008 9:04 AM | Link to this
Here’s a question: if Anderson manages to reduce his strike-outs and the Braves find a power-hitting left fielder, would that make Schafer expendable? I would imagine that Anderson with his speed could bat lead-off… just a thought.
By Shaun
October 15, 2008 9:05 AM | Link to this
Rob Neyer asked a great question on his blog yesterday as he addressed the ludicrous idea the Carlos Delgado may be the Mets’ MVP: “Is the Most Valuable Player the player who makes the greatest all-around contribution for six months? Or is he the one-dimensional player who gives his team two or three great months?” Many of the voters will probably vote the latter.
By McFann Ô
October 15, 2008 9:06 AM | Link to this
Hey, guys—Now, I haven’t gone on it or anything, but the Reaper has a “post-season blog”…
Haha! Now the add at the bottom of my screen says:
Peavy Shop Victoriously with eBay. Find exactly what you want now. www.ebay.com
By DAP
October 15, 2008 9:06 AM | Link to this
It is not going to be easy, quick or cheap.
it might be easier, quicker, and cheaper than you think to get peavy. if the email DOB got is legit, its possoble peavy would only waive his no trade clause for the braves. and, if san diego want to move his salary, they will take less. they wont take nothing, but a deal with two minor league pitchers, lillibridge and b. jones might do it. maybe add flowers to that pot, and weve got him.
By McFann Ô
October 15, 2008 9:18 AM | Link to this
Shaun—
That’s a great Q.
That being said (asked)…Cann we safely say Chipper was our MVP? I would think so…
By DAP
October 15, 2008 9:22 AM | Link to this
hoosier aaron which 12-17 game winner on the free agent list are we going to sign for $7.5 per year? (half of peavy’s average salary for the next 4 years)
let me know, then we can talk about YOUR post.
By Shaun
October 15, 2008 9:29 AM | Link to this
McFann Ô, Chipper was most likely the Braves’ MVP (you could argue McCann because of position and playing time), but Chipper isn’t really one-dimensional and he helped the Braves beyond merely after the All-Star break or late in the season.
Chipper actually led the team in on-base, slugging and batting average and played solid defense. And I’d venture to say, though he now lacks speed, he contributed more to the Braves as a baserunner than Howard contributed to the Phillies as a baserunner.
By DAP
October 15, 2008 9:29 AM | Link to this
DOB i dont see the phillies beating the rays. im going for rays in 6 for the WS.
By GermanBravesFan
October 15, 2008 9:32 AM | Link to this
DAP - I agree. I don’t think there are any 12-17 game winners on the free agent list out there. I still think Peavy will be a good deal for $11 million during his first season. It will leave quite a bit of $$$ left to sign another high-quality starter and a power-hitting left fielder.
By DAP
October 15, 2008 9:32 AM | Link to this
mcfann i think it might have been mccann.
By Richie
October 15, 2008 9:32 AM | Link to this
I think we should really give Anderson a look before we readily annoint the job to Schafer. I think he should spend more time in the minors. Please remember Anderson only played in 40 games this year. Blanco played enough of a season for me to see, he is not the option in CF for the Braves. I would like to see Anderson improve that 33/8 K to BB ratio, though. And improve that OBP as well. If Anderson is to go after the CF job, I think it is best served for him to just hit the gaps, use that speed of his and gives us occasional power but mostly try to be a high OBP guy. I still say if we are going to give up Johnson, in a potential Peavy deal, that we should go after Brandon Phillips. I am not convinced Prado is an everyday player. I believe Prado will succeed in the role he is in now. I think Prado would better the club off the bench.
By Lew
October 15, 2008 9:34 AM | Link to this
Shaun-You can keep ranting that Utley is more deserving of the MVP than Howard, but the truth is, without Brad Lidge’s season, the Phillies are at home right now eating cheesesteaks. Period.
By Efrim
October 15, 2008 9:35 AM | Link to this
As much as I want to say the Red Sox are done. I can’t.
I can envision a scenario where Dice-K gets them to through Game 5. Kazmir gets lite up in Game 6, and Lester pitches the Red Sox to a World Series in Game 7.
All of that isn’t likely to happen. But it’s possible.
I really think that has to be the formula. Because Beckett is going to get hit hard in Game 6. That might be the only thing that is certain.
By Efrim
October 15, 2008 9:39 AM | Link to this
Richie
I think we should really give Anderson a look before we readily annoint the job to Schafer. I think he should spend more time in the minors.
I think he could use a couple of months in Triple A as well. It sure couldn’t hurt. I think Anderson/Blanco can hold it down for a couple of months. Ultimately, Schafer will be roaming CF for the Braves in June.
By Efrim
October 15, 2008 9:46 AM | Link to this
Looks like Peavy really doesn’t want to play in the AL. The cities that his agent Barry Axelrod mentioned were Atlanta, Chicago, Houston, Los Angeles and St. Louis. Here is the link:
http://www3.signonsandiego.com/stories/2008/oct/14/padres-peavy1420020/?padres
Looking at those teams, the Astros and Cubs have nothing in their farm to offer the Padres. I have to think that Towers wouldn’t want to trade him within the NL West, so that should leave the Dodgers out of it.
So that leaves the two teams with Top 10 farm systems. Cardinals and Braves…..
Start your engines.
By 3trees
October 15, 2008 9:52 AM | Link to this
Sometimes reading lyrics don’t translate, but those seem pretty cool, DOB. Haven’t heard these guys yet, but they’re here w/DBT in Nov.? Cool. I do think the Rays are ready though. We’ll see, they’re not there yet.
It’ll sure be interesting to see what develops with Peavy. At the very least, it makes for some interesting speculation and debate.
Steve from OH - On Steve Howe, listen to nolie, check out their first few albums. The best thing about Howe is his parts, textures and versatility. He was one of the first to be able to cop classical, jazz, Merle Travis style picking, funk, etc. chops AND apply them to making music. Yeah, I listen to the stuff in High School, but when I went back and re-visited it in my later years, the thing that still struck me was Howe’s contributions (I love Bruford’s drumming as well). The way he used lap steel and echo to create those sweeping aural landscapes, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Edge had listened to him.
Hendrix didn’t really have great chops (compared with some of the uber players of today), but he had a conception that was/is like no one else’s. He took it somewhere we hadn’t been. Not even close.
Peace
By Deep Throat
October 15, 2008 9:53 AM | Link to this
I fully support doing whatever is needed to obtain Jake Peavy if the Padres do indeed make him available.
To me, it is insane to even suggest that trading a minor league outfielder in Jason Heyward who may (or may not) be good in the majors 2-5+ years down the line for a young Cy Young award winner and one of the best pitchers in the NL with FOUR years left on his contract is insanity.
If Peavy had but one year left on his contract and Scott Boras as his agent, I could understand. But that is not the case. Peavy is an Alabama native, a Southerner, a great pitcher and could be the Braves’ ace for many, many years…even beyond the four years a team is assured. I say offer the Padres whatever they want.
By Shaun
October 15, 2008 9:54 AM | Link to this
Lew, you may very well be right about Lidge but the same could definitely be said for Utley.
Regarding Lidge, he’s the most valuable reliever in baseball. But if the Phillies replaced him with an average reliever would it really be a bigger difference than if you replaced Utley with an average secondbaseman?
By McFann Ô
October 15, 2008 9:57 AM | Link to this
DAP—
Hmm…yeah…I think you’re on to something…
Shaun—
I agree, Chipper isn’t a one-dimensional player. I don’t think McCann is one-dimensional, either.
Chipper was pretty good on the bases.
I know each team does their own Player of the Year…when do they announce those, again?
By Shaun
October 15, 2008 9:59 AM | Link to this
without Brad Lidge’s season, the Phillies are at home right now eating cheesesteaks.
The Phillies finished only three games ahead of the Mets. So, I’m sure you could say the same thing about several Phillies players, not just Lidge.
You replace Howard with an average firstbaseman, all else being the same, the Phillies don’t make the playoffs. You replace Utley with an average secondbaseman, the Phillies don’t make the playoffs. You replace Rollins with an average shortstop, the Phillies don’t make the playoffs. Same with Burrell. You can go on and on. This doesn’t really tell us anything about most valuable.
By Efrim
October 15, 2008 10:03 AM | Link to this
Deep Throat
You need to read about Heyward man. I agree with you to an extent. No minor leaguer should be untouchable. But for a team that dealt Neftali Feliz and Elvis Andrus(top 20 overall prospects in the sport) just last year, I can’t imagine them giving up Heyward for anyone.
By Steve from OH
October 15, 2008 10:05 AM | Link to this
Ryan Howard is 6th on his own team in OBP. Think about that.
You would think that an MVP would lead the majors (much less his own team) in a few (not all) offensive categories…but here’s a lengthy list of “traditional” and “sabermetric” stats that he did not lead the majors in, and some that he wasn’t remotely close in:
Batting Average Walks Runs OBP SLG OPS EqA VORP WARP1 WARP2 WARP3 WPA
Also, pick literally any defensive stat. I’ll bet Howard didn’t even lead first basemen in it, let alone post a “good” number. Sure, I don’t like defensive stats either, but they all can’t be wrong…
And here are some stats that he did lead the majors in:
Home Runs RBI
Pretty convincing, eh? Get off the RBI brigade and Howard isn’t even close to being an MVP. You know who was pretty high up on the list of all of those categories? Albert Pujols.
Sure, things like EqA and VORP aren’t everything, but if you’re not looking at RBI, EVERY OTHER SINGLE STATISTIC says that Howard is not the MVP…they all can’t be wrong, can they?
Look, I’ll be the first one to tell you that there is a human or “intangible” element to the game…but Howard’s “intangibles” don’t make up for his (relative, in the context of the MVP debate) lack of performance, in my book…every win counts the same, whether in April or September.
By 1957 Braves Fan
October 15, 2008 10:13 AM | Link to this
I just can’t see the Padres giving us Jake Peavy without getting Jason Heyward or Tommy Hanson in return. I hope I am wrong but Frank Wren may have a tough decision to make.
By Steve from OH
October 15, 2008 10:14 AM | Link to this
Deep Throat, I wouldn’t say offer the Padres whatever they want…but definitely make a competitive offer. Based on what’s been written on the situation, we’re in a really good position to maybe get him for a little (not a lot) less than we should. But, no, I don’t give up Heyward.
Coach, while I (mostly) agree w/ O’Leary’s assessment, that shouldn’t stop us from getting Peavy. He’s under contract until 2013, and probably longer than that if DOB’s source is truthful. If he goes down for a year with TJ, so what? And while I think he does do a nice job analyzing mechanics, I doubt he (or Chris Lincecum) is as much of an expert in biomechanics as you think.
By DAP
October 15, 2008 10:19 AM | Link to this
i agree there is no way howard should win the MVP.
By Big Easy
October 15, 2008 10:20 AM | Link to this
Peavy seems like a good guy. This is a funny video I found with him, sort of a Pros Vs Joes takeoff from some Local news station.
Jake Peavy Pro Vs. Joe
~E~
By Lew
October 15, 2008 10:22 AM | Link to this
Shaun-Look at the Phillies quite inconsistent season. Utley had an excellent first half and tailed off the second. Howard had an abysmal first half and an incredible second half. The offense disappeared in the middle of the season. The one consistent aspect of the Phillies’ game from start to finish-The Bullpen, anchored by Brad Lidge.
With Lidge there was no inconsistency. There was no drop off of performance throughout the season. His performance was the same every time out. No slumps. No setbacks. Perfection throughout the season. Yes, you can always say that several players were responsible in any pennant race-it IS a team sport, after all. However, when one player performs at top level with no let down-and in such a critical area as closer-one has to take that into consideration. Utley failed at times. Howard failed at times. Burrell failed at times. Rollins occasionally disappeared. Same with the outfield. Lidge? Not so. Perfect in every opportunity. The aspect of the game that caused the Mets to tank, provided the Phillies with the impetus to take the division. Lidge is definitely the Phillies MVP. Without that consistency? Cheesesteaks, Dude, cheesesteaks.
By DAP
October 15, 2008 10:24 AM | Link to this
If he goes down for a year with TJ, so what?
i feel the same way about it. its worth the risk, to me, to have a guy who could still win 45 games easily over the remaining three years he isnt on the shelf. also, do what we did with ahmpton. insure him. then, it wont hit us as hard if he goes down.
can you imagine if we do get peavy, and there have enough money to get lowe as well, and then we come back in 2010 with a top 4 of peavy, hudson, lowe, jurjens? wow.
By P-Town Brave
October 15, 2008 10:25 AM | Link to this
Richie
That is exactly the type of chatter that got the Cards fans to give up on Placido Polanco…and then he got traded to the Phils…
Seems to me he’s had a pretty good career for a guy who most ppl had said would never be more than a super utility bench guy…
Sound familiar?
Oh…and my opinion…I’m all for going for Peavy…I whole heartedly agree w/ you DOB…guys like him just aren’t available much and for that type of deal he has left w/ his contract makes it even sweeter…along w/ that, I have a feeling the Fathers won’t get full value for him as he will force their hand w/ his no-trade clause…
I could be wrong, but I see the NTC being a big play in this whole ordeal…
Just think after getting Peavy and his salary we could very well get ANOTHER front line starter as well as the power hitting corner outfielder we’ve been looking for…
Only problem is, there really isn’t much out there…the FA OF aren’t very attractive by any means unless Manny fell into our laps or the Rays or Angels had brain freezes and declined options on Carl Crawford and Vlad Guererro respectively…
Along w/ that, we really aren’t sure whats there on the trade market….I certainly wouldn’t mind Nate McLouth…heard his name recently, or Magglio Ordonez who has been talked about a lot…other than that, Jose Guillen’s name has been brought up, but he’s like Jeff Francoeur Part 2 (BB/K) numbers wise…
DOB, now that we’re all on the off-season hot stove discussion, what does your gut tell you about where the Braves will look for their OF help (FA or trade)?
By Steve from OH
October 15, 2008 10:27 AM | Link to this
Coach, just to elaborate…all pitchers are “damaged goods.” The throwing motion is just so unnatural and damaging to the arm that any single pitcher is a candidate for injury at any time.
By brian
October 15, 2008 10:30 AM | Link to this
One lesson the Braves have learned ever since Maddux and Glavine left was that you win with pitching. If the Braves can get Peavy without giving up their future he could be the Maddux in a future rotation. In 2 years think of a rotation with Peavy, Jurrjens, Hanson, Morton, and one of any number of top young arms we have coming through. Peavy would be a great influence on JJJ, Hanson, and Morton while giving the Braves a true shut down ace.
If Smoltz can come back and anchor a bullpen with Gonzalez and Soriano we will have the pitching staff to dominate.
By P-Town Brave
October 15, 2008 10:42 AM | Link to this
Efrim
Being someone who has been there plenty and lived there and also not necessarily a map or geography expert, but knowing where things are on maps tells me that St. Louis is not in the south and not much closer to Jake getting back to his family so I think they would be out as well…
As you put it, I would see Houston making a play as well as Texas from the AL…seeing as Jake wants to stay in the NL, that would take the latter out, and also as you so put it, we are in much better shape to deal than the ‘Stros…
Makes you really love our scouts and everyone w/in the organization for building up our outstanding farm system so we can compete w/ those players and occasionally do things just like this…
Frank, go out and get Jake the Snake STAT!
By GermanBravesFan
October 15, 2008 10:43 AM | Link to this
How about starting pitching like this: Peavy, Lowe, Jurrjens, Hampton, Glavine (or Morton) Bullpen: Gonzalez, Soriano, Smoltz, Moylan, Ohman, Carlyle
Bench: Infante, Prado, Norton, Schafer/Anderson, Catcher
Line-up: Anderson/Schafer, Johnson, Chipper, Manny Ramirez, McCann, Escobar, Kotchman, Francoeur
By Shaun
October 15, 2008 10:47 AM | Link to this
Lew, Lidge threw 69.3 innings (around 208 outs) and appeared in 72 games. On defense alone Utley had 463 assists. I realize Lidge’s outs may have been bigger but enough to make up for that big a difference in playing time? Giving the Phillies MVP to Lidge would be like giving it to an awesome pinch-hitter that came in at the end of lots of games to deliver key hits. Nothing against Lidge. He did what he was supposed to do better than any relief pitcher in baseball—closer or setup. And I’d love for the Braves to have him. But I can’t see that a guy responsible for just over 200 outs in a 162-game season the most valuable player on his team.
Also, Utley hit .292/.390/.465 in the second half (and .291/.372/.582 in the first half).
By ncscoots
October 15, 2008 10:47 AM | Link to this
Efrim, your 9:46 seems as if it’s a good read on the situation. Have Coach call Kevin Towers and scare him about Peavy’s elbow. That oughta get the price dropped pronto, LOL. We gotta save some prospects currency for Maggs, you know. :-)
For the sake of argument, let’s say a righteous deal for Peavy could be worked out. I’d not then be in favor of spending years and dollars on a top-flight FA pitcher. I would look instead for a Paul Byrd type of solid-if-unspectacular-middle-rotation guy and ramp up my pursuit of Hampton. Those two acquisitions would be less expensive in the short term and provide more flexibility in the future, I think. DAP’s Peavy/Hudson/Lowe in 2010 would a big chunk of money in three guys.
By Veer
October 15, 2008 10:48 AM | Link to this
Dave, You claim that a friend of Peavy e-mailed you. How can you be so sure that this friend is legit? How can we be sure that you are not hyping all this up just to get people to post on blog and create rumors? I could claim to be Peavys friend and e-mail you and you would be take me as legit just because it makes your blog look good? I cant believe you are going through all this just to get more hits on this blog.
By Steve from OH
October 15, 2008 10:50 AM | Link to this
P-Town Brave, I see Houston making an attempt to acquire Peavy but I don’t think that they have any pieces at all to land him. Their farm is bare. I really think that Peavy might pressure Towers a little bit to get a deal done with the Braves. Will Towers go for it? That remains to be seen.
By Blake
October 15, 2008 10:51 AM | Link to this
Ugh. As a lifelong Mets fan I really hope that the Braves can’t land Peavy. I’d hate to see such a dominant pitcher — in his prime — hit Atlanta.
By DAP
October 15, 2008 11:01 AM | Link to this
if we put together a trade for peavy, would we have enough left to try and get a outfielder like ordonez? im not sure.
By Efrim
October 15, 2008 11:05 AM | Link to this
P-Town Brave
Who knows if Peavy wouldn’t waive that no trade for St Louis? St Louis isn’t the South, but I have to imagine that Peavy would be open to the idea of playing in front of that Cardinal crowd. And they love their Cardinals.
Houston does not have the prospects to make a deal.
Texas could make a deal. They have the best farm in baseball, or at least that is what Jim Callis and Keith Law say. But apparently Peavy doesn’t want to go to the AL. So taking Oakland, Texas, and Boston out of the equation certainly helps the Braves chances.
ncscoots
Yea, maybe Kaaihue, Van Pope and Jon Mark Owings will be enough to get Peavy? Wait, it’s 2008 you say? Not 2004? Anyway, I agree on your statement that they Braves should look for more of a bargain if they get Peavy. No need to overpay for Burnett/Lowe.
By Steve from OH
October 15, 2008 11:08 AM | Link to this
Lew, here is a list of criteria which (I’m pretty sure) is the one published by the BBWAA to be used for MVP voting:
Actual value of a player to his team, that is, strength of offense and defense.
Number of games played.
General character, disposition, loyalty and effort.
Former winners are eligible.
Members of the committee may vote for more than one member of a team
So, Lidge really doesn’t qualify based on this…great, great player, but probably not MVP. It also doesn’t say anything about “you must also recognize the player who was best late in the season, or in arbitrarily defined ‘clutch situations.’” And no one is bashing Pujols’ “strength of character, dispositon, loyalty, and/or effort,” are they?
By brent a.
October 15, 2008 11:11 AM | Link to this
Peavy, and his big contract, need to move back to Alabama full-time, so he can help bail out Birmingham-Jeffeson County.
By Efrim
October 15, 2008 11:19 AM | Link to this
Kazmir starting Game 5. Not sure if that is a good thing or bad thing. I guess Maddon wants Shields pitching in TB. Makes sense, he is very good there.
By Michael Procton
October 15, 2008 11:21 AM | Link to this
DOB: with Willy Aybar coming up big for the Rays again last night, was his trade (PLUS a second-rounder) for Ridgway ever supposed to be anything more than getting rid of a clubhouse problem? Ridgway was decent up in the bigs, but he was never up because he was so awful in Richmond. Is there something they see in him for the future?
By DAP
October 15, 2008 11:21 AM | Link to this
scoots Peavy/Hudson/Lowe in 2010 would a big chunk of money in three guys.
thats true. it would be like half our over all payrole. good point.
steve from OH yes i think peavy will be on our side as far as trading for him. he wants to come here and we know since he has a no-trade he has alot of leverage in the whole situation.
By Lew
October 15, 2008 11:23 AM | Link to this
The Winner in the category of Broken Dreams and Delusional Thinking Is-
It would seem that several here have not yet understood that Smoltz and Glavine may not ever pitch again, much less be functioning pieces of either our rotation or bullpen-OR any younger.
There are also several who seem to think that IF he comes back, Smoltz will automatically be ready to dominate as a closer yet again.
Y’all-DON’T COUNT ON IT!!!!!!!!!!! Don’t count on Soriano, either. Or Moylan. Or Hudson in August. Or Hampton returning to Atlanta. There is absolutely no indication that any of these pitchers will either A. Be able to pitch again (Smoltz and Glavine) and B. Will return from surgery ready to roll (Moylan, Hudson). I don’t know how many times we’ve discussed the 18 month return rule with TJ surgery (y’all need to realize Gonzo was the exception, as opposed to the rule-and he struggled at times).
Another BIG misconception is that Hampton will give the Braves a discount because he missed so much time and he will sign for one million. Get over THAT one right now. No way in Hell does he sign for anything less than $5-8 million this year. If the Braves won’t give it to him, believe me-someone will. THAT ONE you can count on.
Time to proceed (as Wren says he will) with building a team that doesn’t count on these pieces like so many here want to. Talk about overly enumerated fowl and unhatched eggs.
By Lew
October 15, 2008 11:25 AM | Link to this
Shaun-Without Lidge-cheesesteaks at home.
By DAP
October 15, 2008 11:26 AM | Link to this
it seems like our main competition is going to be st. louis. if you take the AL teams out of the equation and then see what team actaully have alot of young players the pads would want….im starting to think this could really happen.
By Efrim
October 15, 2008 11:27 AM | Link to this
Saw this from Buster Olney’s article a day ago:
The San Diego Padres have begun the process of sorting through initial trade conversations about All-Star right-hander Jake Peavy and, to date, their talks seem to have been with National League teams; Peavy has a no-trade clause and prefers to play in the NL.
One team — perhaps St. Louis — is discussing the possibility of expanding the package beyond Peavy to include shortstop Khalil Greene, who is under contract for 2009 for $6.5 million. It would make sense for the Padres to move Greene, who is coming off a disappointing season in which he hit .213 with 10 homers and 35 RBIs, a year after he hit 27 homers and drove in 97 runs. Greene, who turns 29 next week, is eligible for free agency after next season, and in moving Greene in a Peavy package, the Padres would create even more payroll flexibility as they look to acquire more consistency in their offense
By Lew
October 15, 2008 11:33 AM | Link to this
Shaun-You want stats, then check this out (it will keep you occupied and off the streets for a while, if nothing else).
How many closers went perfect in their saves/opportunites , with over 40 saves and did NOT make the playoffs. Then go and search how many players with .292, .390, .463 that did NOT make it to the playoffs. Then tell me who was more valuable.
SteveFRomOH-There are no such criteria that I am aware of (otherwise, these discussions would be moot, wouldn’t they?). If such were the case, a pitcher would NEVER have won an MVP, much less a reliever-which HAS happened.
As for league MVP-I would vote for Pujols, anyway. Lidge is the Phillies MVP, though-hands down. Without Lidge’s perfect performance, the Phillies eat cheesesteaks at home, NOT play in the Series as appears to be where they are headed.
By Hoosier Aaron
October 15, 2008 11:35 AM | Link to this
Frank Wren has said signing free agents is the most inefficient way to obtain talent. Based on that - I’d assume we’ll explore trade options before free agents. Based on that - I’m not sure my previous post mentioned free agents whose salary were half of Peavy’s.
You know my opinion - and as Skip Carey would say, “I respect your ridiculous opinion.” :^)
However, if giving up top prospects AND paying that kind of money are acceptable - I still think there are much better options.
Aaron Cook won 16 games last year and his contract commitment over the next three year is about $27.5 million.
Jesse Litsch won 13 games last year and he makes almost nothing - plus he’s from Florida - that’s close to Georgia isn’t it?
Bronson Arroyo won 15 games for a bad team - he’s owed about $22 million over the next couple of years.
If we want wins and we’re willing to give up prospects to get them.
There’s 44 wins and you’ve still have $13 million dollars in your pocket.
Peavy wins 20?
Sorry - I’d rather have a deep rotation for that kind of money. Don’t get me wrong - I like Mike Hampton and all.
By Steve from OH
October 15, 2008 11:37 AM | Link to this
Without Lidge-cheesesteaks at home.
You could say the same thing about Cole Hamels. Or Chase Utley. Or Ryan Howard. Or Jamie Moyer. This is a terrible way to choose an MVP…way, way too subjective. This is a perfect case of bias because you remember what happens in the 9th way more than you remeber what happens in the early and middle innings. Lidge was extremely valuable to his team, but not in the context that you’re putting him in (as the only reason that the Phils are in the playoffs. Not true, not in the least). Gotta delve deeper than that, dude.
By Braveheart
October 15, 2008 11:38 AM | Link to this
Shaun, go to fangraphs and look at win probability added. Lidge had a 5.37. Utley had a 1.47. Almost a 4 win difference between the 2.
By stynes
October 15, 2008 11:40 AM | Link to this
Just throwing this out there for discussion…
I’ve always liked Bobby Cox a lot. I think he’s a great manager - one of the best in baseball. Ditto to folks like Joe Torre, Tony LaRussa, Lou Piniella, etc. Now before everyone jumps on how Bobby isn’t worthy of being mentioned in the same paragraph with those other dudes… let me get my question out… Those guys are great “managers.” They know how to handle different personalities, get people focused and ready to play. They’re good with strategy, handling pitchers, defending their players. All the things “managers” do.
After the Rays beat the Sox again last night I was listening to an interview with Joe Maddon. Some of his language struck me. He was talking about how the team has gotten better over the course of the year. Matured, if you will. He mentioned a couple of different areas, one of them being knowledge of the strike zone and swinging only at pitches in the zone, etc.
That’s really when it struck me. I don’t think I often hear those great “managers” talk like that. That sounded more like a “coach” talking. Is that just me or is there a difference in some of these great managers and what they do to guide a team, and what some of these younger players really need which is continued coaching at the big league level? Guys like Francoeur, Jo-Jo, certainly Morton immediately come to mind. Could that be why some of the younger clubs have been so successful in recent years is that there’s a focus on “coaching” and not “managing.” I’m thinking of the young Marlins from a couple of years ago, the Rockies team from last year was pretty youthful. Certainly this years Rays fit that bill. Are enough teams with such a young core - like the Braves - doing enough in terms of coaching and not just managing?
By Ethan
October 15, 2008 11:43 AM | Link to this
I’d give: Heyward, Hernandez, and Flowers for Peavy. It’s a lot, but Peavy is a stud. An alternative might be to sub KJ for Hernandez or Flowers. That would be fair on both sides.
I’d do that; then try to pick up Dunn. With arbitration increases, that’s about all of your 40MM, but at least your getting about as close to proven as you can get.
By GermanBravesFan
October 15, 2008 11:49 AM | Link to this
Hoosier Aaron: the pitchers you mentioned are not even close to being a number one starter!!! The Braves will have plenty of $$$ left to sign another starter (maybe even one of the ones you listed) AND get an outfielder. Peavy is a proven ace and the Braves will have to give something up to get him. I am all for it!
By Steve from OH
October 15, 2008 11:52 AM | Link to this
Lew: I’m almost positive that those are the rules (can DOB confirm?), I can’t remeber where I found them, but I’ll keep looking. If that is true, what does that, coupled with your 11:33 post, tell you about the objectivity of the MVP (and other awards) process? Oh, wait, objectivity is overrated. Never mind.
Never mind that you are completely ignoring context in your 11:33. Of course you can find players with that line that don’t make the playoffs: there are 8 other hitters, 5 pitchers, etc. on the team contributing. And never mind that saves are a silly stat.
Jose Valverde had 44 saves this year for Houston. They didn’t make the playoffs. So Jose Valverde is less valuable to Houston than Lidge was to Philly? I’m sorry, man, but I just don’t think your argument holds much water.
By Lew
October 15, 2008 11:54 AM | Link to this
Steve-Dude. Too subjective? Sorry, but that’s how it’s done and has been done from the beginning. Get over it-that’s the system and it ain’t changing because stat heads think it should.
Besides, you’d never find agreement on what statistical data is acceptable and what is not-and then someone would come up with a NEW stat and it would have to change again-something like Batting Average on Balls In Play That were Hit Off a Pitch That Was Different than the Pitch that the Batter Had Thought was Coming, But was Able to Make The Adjustment Anyway-or BABIPTHOPTWDPBHTCBAMTAA-the ULTIMATE hitting statistic-even takes mind reading and speculation into account.
Maybe if you elect Shaun the new commissioner things will change. Yeah. That’s happening. Sure it is. It is what it is and nothing else. Kind of like gravity.
By DAP
October 15, 2008 11:55 AM | Link to this
tim dierks from MLB trade rumors said this:
Even if Peavy is picky about his destination, though, there is no reason for Towers to accept a package that does not begin with Jason Heyward or Tommy Hanson. He has plenty of time to explore possible Peavy trades.
i think that is incorrect. the fact that peavy is picky and has a no trade clause means that if peavy want to come to the braves, and the pads need to unload payrole, we could get peavy for corky miller.
obviously, that is an exaggeration, but the braves have many good prospects that the pads would be interested in besides hanson and heyward.
if the pads want to unload greene in the deal, that would be ok. he under contract for one more year, and if we must, we must. he could ride the bench and back up chipper when needed or something.
maybe the braves could entice the pads by taking giles in the deal, saving them the $3mil buyout. giles is not the ideal player we need in LF, but it would be a one year thing, and gilescan still get on base at a high rate. hed be a good #2 hitter.
By Efrim
October 15, 2008 11:57 AM | Link to this
I’d much rather start any package for Peavy with Hanson rather than Heyward. Just my two cents, but considering that young pitchers are such a crapshoot(more than position players), it would make sense to center the deal around Hanson.
By Richie
October 15, 2008 11:57 AM | Link to this
By P-Town Brave
This is true, but it is not a lock he is going to turn out like Planco. The Braves are going to need some pop in the infield, if they package Johnson in a potential deal for Peavy
By Steve from OH
October 15, 2008 11:57 AM | Link to this
Braveheart, that WPA is probably a function of when Lidge is in the game. I mean, when Lidge leaves the game, the win expectancy is 1, so I’d say that would boost his WPA a lot (based on my understanding of the stat).
But good point, nonetheless.
By ncscoots
October 15, 2008 12:01 PM | Link to this
Lew, if you don’t count on Moylan And Soriano returning to form, you’ve just added a couple of items to the offseason shopping list. Though I don’t see why you would include Soriano in your list; he had relatively minor surgery, and should be 100% at ST. Moylan will at least 13 months from surgery when the season starts, will he not? I don’t remember the exact date of his operation.
I agree with your other points in that post, but I have to pencil Moylan and Soriano in as ready for 2009. To me, the bullpen looks to be a strong point, even as currently constituted.
By Steve from OH
October 15, 2008 12:08 PM | Link to this
Steve-Dude. Too subjective? Sorry, but that’s how it’s done and has been done from the beginning. Get over it-that’s the system and it ain’t changing because stat heads think it should.
I’m not willing to settle for that. Are you? I can’t believe that any rational person would be willing to say something like that…I mean, that is just ridiculous. Would a Ph.D. be awarded subjectively (well, your dissertation seems good, so here ya go. Congrats!)? Outside of baseball, that’s not the way the world works. C’mon, man. You don’t honestly believe that is a good thing, do you? I’m just incredulous that a respectable blogger like you would say something like that. Never in a million years.
Gravity is a well-proven theory. So is BABIP (but wait, it’s new! Oh, no! The sun still revolves around the Earth, by God!). If you would be willing to get off of your “subjectivity” ride or whatever and actually open your mind to new ideas (and maybe actually read about them? My God, the horror!), you would find that they do hold a lot of water.
Hey man, you are one of my favorite bloggers here, but I’m still in shock that you would say something like that.
By David O'Brien
October 15, 2008 12:21 PM | Link to this
Outside of baseball, that’s not the way the world works. C’mon, man.Steve from OH
Well, guess what, Steve? What happens outside of baseball means squat inside of baseball, or inside of most pro sports, for that matter.
So make a relevant point.
By Lew
October 15, 2008 12:23 PM | Link to this
Steve-First of all Dude, I did not say pitchers with 40 or more saves, but pitchers with 40 or more saves and NO Blown Saves-it is the perfection factor that is the difference. I daresay there are not many of these paragons and would be willing to bet that 90% or more of them made it to the playoffs. Not so with players putting up Utley’s stats. That to me says that Closers with 40 or more saves and zero blown saves are more an indicator of a team going to the playoffs (and hence a major reason for it being so) than players that hit .290+ with a good OBP, of which there are many.
Dude, you (like Shaun in this regard) seem to think I have no use for stats other than those around in 1890. Not true. I DO think that OBP is important. I DO think Slg% is important. I can definitely see where they might be a help in putting together a ML team-even MORE so putting together a FANTASY team (that’s where I use them), where the whole system runs on stats. However, as we have argued ad infinitum and ad nauseum with Shaun for the past three (going on 4, now) years, there are intangibles-unquantifiable aspects of playing baseball, that stats (at least as currently configured) can’t take into account because they ARE subjective. Just because you, Shaun and the others think stats are the be all and end all of analysis, doesn’t necessarily make it so. It amazes me that anyone ever figured out baseball without those stats for all those years-and enjoyed the game without them. Use them all you want-doesn’t bother me. But don’t try ramming them up my @$$ or down my throat. They are NOT the only way to understand or appreciate the game. The fact that I do not rely on them to the exclusion of “Subjective” criteria, doesn’t negate my baseball knowledge or make me any less knowledgeable than you or Shaun.
Like I tried telling Shaun yesterday-I don’;t need a meteorological report to tell that there are clouds in the sky and it might rain. Sometimes just looking and paying attention will suffice.
As for my argument ignoring context-how so? My criteria are pretty limited, so there shouldn’t be much room to deviate. As to objectivity being meaningless-no, it isn’t, but you’re dealing with a situation that a. has never BEEN objective, b. will likely NEVER BE objective and c. is not much more objective because you site stats that may or may not be as relevant as you seem to think they are.
By DAP
October 15, 2008 12:24 PM | Link to this
hoosier aaron I’m not sure my previous post mentioned free agents whose salary were half of Peavy’s.
no, it didnt, but here’s what you said:
I’d much rather take my chances with a 12 - 17 game winner for much less money. 3 - 5 wins for that amount of money - just not worth it…we have too many other needs to tie up that much salary for one guy…If the Friars will pick up half the salary - let’s talk.
(i edited it down a little) based on that post, it sounds like you think peavy is worth about half of what he will get, thats why i asked for some pitchers who can win 12-17 for about $7.5mil per year, which is about half of the yearly average of peavy’s contract.
now i understand your thought that we have many other needs, and that we have to be frugal, but it almost seems like you dont realize what the market for pitchers is like right now. a pitcher who can win 12-17 game doesnt fall out of the sky for %7.5 mil. and, teams arent trading and dealing guys like that freely, because they are below market value, so the return thier team gets from them is high.
so when we have a guy like peavy dangling out there, who, like it or not is signed four more years below market value…youve got to be dilligent and persue that. it would be dumb not to.
By Braveheart
October 15, 2008 12:26 PM | Link to this
Braveheart, that WPA is probably a function of when Lidge is in the game. I mean, when Lidge leaves the game, the win expectancy is 1, so I’d say that would boost his WPA a lot (based on my understanding of the stat).
well, then, if you looked at the clutch stat that goes with that, utley underperformed the leverage index by 2.19 and lidge exceeded by 1.20. That’s still about a 2.5 win difference between Lidge and Utley based on how they overperformed/underperformed given the win expectancy environments they confronted.
By Braveheart
October 15, 2008 12:30 PM | Link to this
Actually, if Lidge had a clutch of 1.20 and Utley had a -2.19, doesn’t that mean that Lidge was almost 3.5 wins better than Utley given the win expectation of the situations they encountered in games?
By David O'Brien
October 15, 2008 12:34 PM | Link to this
I think Lidge will get plenty of MVP votes, certainly more than Utley or Burrell, who will get few if any.
But there are a lot of voters, myself included (when I was allowed to vote), who are reluctant to vote a closer ahead of exemplary position players for MVP.
I’d rather have a closer in contention for Cy Young. But I’d probably only vote a closer for first place on Cy ballot if they had a season like K-Rod or the one Smoltz had when he was nearly perfect, and also if there were no starters who had huge seasons that year, no 20-game winners or guys who won 18 and had great ERAs, etc.
And I really don’t like voting starting pitchers ahead of position players who’ve had seasons like Pujols and Howard did this year. Starters, though they can have an undeniable affect on the bullpen by going deep into games, and can end team skids, etc, to me just don’t have the same impact as a position player who plays ever day, not in terms of MVP qualification.
By Nate
October 15, 2008 12:41 PM | Link to this
Everybody is talking about how Schafer is untouchable, and how close he is to helping the big league club. I don’t get it. What makes anyone draw that conclusion? He plays great defense, and he’s had a few really great weeks offensively at double A. He hasn’t dominated pitchers over the course of a whole season or even a few months at the time. Add in the drug suspension and this guy is a huge question mark. I’m hoping this guys grows up to be the next great Atlanta Brave, but lets take a reality check. Unless I’m wrong the guy has never had an at-bat above double A. Other than wishful thinking just what is it that has so many of you guys so excited about Schafer.
By Nate
October 15, 2008 12:42 PM | Link to this
Everybody is talking about how Schafer is untouchable, and how close he is to helping the big league club. I don’t get it. What makes anyone draw that conclusion? He plays great defense, and he’s had a few really great weeks offensively at double A. He hasn’t dominated pitchers over the course of a whole season or even a few months at a time. Add in the drug suspension and this guy is a huge question mark. I’m hoping this guys grows up to be the next great Atlanta Brave, but lets take a reality check. Unless I’m wrong the guy has never had an at-bat above double A. Other than wishful thinking just what is it that has so many of you guys so excited about Schafer?
By Steve from OH
October 15, 2008 12:47 PM | Link to this
Then you can’t bash sabermetrics, since the entire field is pretty much based upon those two things. Crazy how acronyms throw people off like that.
I think you are misunderstanding me as well…I do place value on intangibles. I love the game of baseball, so yes, I do enjoy those things. Intangibles are part of the game, no two ways about it. When the game starts, that’s what I want to see. Please keep in mind that my thinking on the blog comes from a front office point of view, since most of what we do on here is talk about which players are good or bad or which ones should come to the Braves? Is that not reasonable? Read my previous posts and they will say that. Intangibles are a large part of the game. They can’t make up for sizeable differenes in statistics (which are a measure of performance, might I add). So, what I’m saying is that given a set of players with roughly equal stats (like, say, Mark Teixeira and another comparable 1B), we can use subjective things like intangibles to evaluate them, like does their team make the playoffs, are they “clutch,” etc. That’s all good when the players are rougly equal. Not when comparing a guy like David Eckstein to A-Rod. That is the basis for all of my posts. Can you agree with that?
And I would never imply that you’re not knowledgeable about the game. I think our whole debate is kinda apples to oranges. How about this: Utley is their most valuable position player, and Lidge is their most valuable pitcher?
*Well, guess what, Steve? What happens outside of baseball means squat inside of baseball, or inside of most pro sports, for that matter.
So make a relevant point.* DOB
Umm, don’t front offices (like Boston’s, who happens to be a pretty good team) use objective ways to analyze player performance? That’s a relevant point, wouldn’t you agree? I mean, baseball teams are businessess first and foremost, and I think that is relatively close to the rest of the “outside world,” wouldn’t you?
Dude, I don’t come on here bashing you, so I think you could at least extend the same courtesy to me. I’ve never bashed any of your work, have I?
By DAP
October 15, 2008 12:48 PM | Link to this
ethan so youre figuring on dunn signing for $29mil a year? unless thats so, your plan leaves alot more of our $40mil left than you say.
By Lew
October 15, 2008 12:48 PM | Link to this
Steve-Dude, I learned a long time ago that some aspects of life are going to be beyond my ability (or almost anyone’s) to change and that I can make it fine without trying to crusade to change them. Baseball is one of them. I simply do not feel a need to be totally conversant with “the New Math” so to speak. I’ve made it through almost 55 years as a baseball fan and somehow still like and respect the game as much as I did before there was any Badabing or VORP or Park Adjusted math. I still watch over 300 games a season and enjoy most of them immensely.
Quite honestly, most of the changes to baseball during my lifetime- The DH, Lowering the mound, rampant expansion, artificial turf, maple bats, steroids, polyesther unis, the winner of the All Star Game getting home field advantage in the series and red alternate jerseys-have done little if anything to improve the game or my appreciation, thereof. I don’t see your New Age stats as being much of an improvement, either. They don’t tell me all that much more than acute observation does. They may help to clarify, but that is all. They tell me little I don’t already know by paying attention. How in the world did baseball survive all those years with nothing much more than the Triple Crown stats? How did it ever progress? How did anyone EVER enjoy it, without seeing Shaun’s Inner Truth? I don’t need to know Chipper’s OBP to know the Dude gets on base a lot and more than most other players. Watching almost every at bat he has is enough to tell me what I need to know. Maybe if I didn’t watch every game and only played Fantasy Baseball………
Face it Dude. I’m not going to change your mind and you’re not going to change mine. Our views are what they are. That is fine and bothers me not in the least. We are both Baseball Fans and that is a Good Thing-actually the most important thing.
What DOES chap my behind is the view from you, Shaun and others, is that if we don’t agree with you or go along with stats that we feel are of nebulous value, then we either are And Idiots (and yes, I realize you didn’t use that particular terminology, but nonetheless…) that we do not desire to see some meaningful truth that we can not otherwise locate on our own and can only be revealed to the True Believers and the Devotees of Bill James.
We have a different way of looking at things-that’s all. Doesn’t mean we are any less knowledgeable than you or don’t care as much.
By Steve from OH
October 15, 2008 12:52 PM | Link to this
Braveheart, my post was more of a question than a statement(not very familiar with WPA), so I’ll take your word for it. Fangraphs didn’t define the derivation of the stat very well, I didn’t think.
By Lee in S GA
October 15, 2008 12:53 PM | Link to this
Looking from the Padres’ perspective involving Peavy, a TOP prospect, along with a couple of other minor prospects (maybe Lillibridge and one of those non-power existing outfielders) would have to be included along with a player like Johnson or no deal would be done at all with the Braves. Also I think the shortstop Greene is going to have to be included in the deal also to make San Diego interested. Appears to me if St Louis or any other team agrees to take Khalil Greene off San Diego’s hands, with the added attraction of Peavy in the package, they will already have an edge over the Braves involving any trade talk. Don’t count too heavily on Peavy coming to Atlanta. At least not w/o Greene following him.
By McFann Ô
October 15, 2008 12:54 PM | Link to this
Nate Unless I’m wrong [Schafer] has never had an at-bat above double A.
No, he hasn’t.
But then again, McCann never had an AB above AA before he came to the Bigs, either.
By Shaun
October 15, 2008 12:56 PM | Link to this
How many closers went perfect in their saves/opportunites , with over 40 saves and did NOT make the playoffs.
I’m not sure. But doesn’t the team have to have a lead in the 9th in order for a pitcher to qualify for a save? In other words, aren’t saves highly dependent on the rest of the team?
go to fangraphs and look at win probability added. Lidge had a 5.37. Utley had a 1.47. Almost a 4 win difference between the 2.
Win probability takes into account the plays that greatly increase or decrease a team’s chance of winning. So if a player goes 5-for-5 while his team is behind by four runs, he isn’t going to get rewarded in win probability. And if a closer comes in to get one out with the tying run on third, he’s going to get rewarded more than a player who goes 5-for-5 with his team behind by four runs.
As for league MVP-I would vote for Pujols, anyway.
As would I.
Is the term value really all that subjective? Isn’t value, when you are talking baseball players, the player who contributes most to giving his team the best chance to win?
By Lew
October 15, 2008 12:59 PM | Link to this
Scoots-Soriano, until he proves to me and the Braves that he is fine, is a question mark. We counted on him in the past and look where that got us. It took them most of the year to figure out what his problem was. Did we really figure it out? Time will tell, hence why I am not counting on him. He is an unknown quantity-at least at this stage of the game.
As for Moylan. Dude, he started the season on the active roster and did not have surgery until around May. That is NOT 13 months. He could reasonably be expected to come back in full form LATE in the season. Hope it ain’t so, but I ain’t holding my breath, either. Yes, a couple more pieces would be a good pick up for the pen. Re-signing Ohman would be a great first step.
By Lew
October 15, 2008 1:03 PM | Link to this
DOB-I agree, Dude. I’m advocating Lidge as Phillies’ MVP, NOT NL MVP. Like I said earlier, I would vote for Pujols, who had a great season (with a severely screwed up elbow) and kept his team in contention throughout most of the season, when they were predicted for a season as doormats-which they well might have been without Albert.
By Steve from OH
October 15, 2008 1:03 PM | Link to this
Lew-that’s fine. I know I’m not going to change it. But I’m not going to buy into it, either. That’s not unreasonable, is it? Like I said, the only time I use that stuff is when evaluating players here. I enjoy all of the games I watch as much (or more) than you just fine without any stats whatsoever. Dude, I love the game, plain and simple. Don’t need stats to do it, either.
And please don’t accuse me of thinking that you’re and idiot. Because I don’t. That’s just not true.
And I DO NOT play fantasy baseball, for the last time. I happen to think that it is stupid (plus, it’s kinda a conflict of interests when the Braves play against guys on your team, isn’t it?).
Different philosophies, it’s all good. I don’t dismiss your point of view at all. You’re right-we’re all baseball fans (more importantly, Braves fans), so it’s all good, my man.
By ncscoots
October 15, 2008 1:03 PM | Link to this
This is true, but it is not a lock he is going to turn out like Planco
I’d call that the mother of all understatements, my friend. Along the lines of “it’s not a lock that Evan Longoria will someday be mistaken for Eva Longoria.”
Like that…
By Braveheart
October 15, 2008 1:14 PM | Link to this
Win probability takes into account the plays that greatly increase or decrease a team’s chance of winning. So if a player goes 5-for-5 while his team is behind by four runs, he isn’t going to get rewarded in win probability. And if a closer comes in to get one out with the tying run on third, he’s going to get rewarded more than a player who goes 5-for-5 with his team behind by four runs.
No sh!t sherlock. That’s the point isn’t it? The closer who gets two outs with the tying run at third is more valuable than the guy who goes a meaningless 5 for 5 in a blowout loss. That’s what the stat is measuring - how someone actually does given the win expectancy in the game situation they encounter. Do you not like that stat even though it is very accurate? You’d rather stick to the sabermetric stats that only support your thesis du jour? That’s not very objective or very deep of an investigation, now is it?
By Braveheart
October 15, 2008 1:18 PM | Link to this
I’d call that the mother of all understatements, my friend.
it seems that John McCain is bloggin’ all the way from Hofstra, my friends. oh, what’s that, my friend? it’s really just my friend scoots saying my friend? okay, my friend.
By Shaun
October 15, 2008 1:24 PM | Link to this
Lew, here you go, no “new math” (whatever that means). No VORP. Nothing like that.
Utley made more than double the number of assist that Lidge made outs. Utley has a significant edge over Howard in AVG and OBP and is fairly close to Howard in slugging. Utley is the better defensive player at a tougher position. Utley is the better baserunner. Utley has more sacrifices. Utley and Howard have nearly an identical number of plate appearances (in fact Utley has a few more).
Howard came to the plate with 483 runners on base this season while Utley came up with 444 runner on base this season. That’s a difference of 39 baserunners. That’s awful close to the difference in their RBI totals of 42.
Now, tell me why in the world someone would think Howard was more valuable than Utley? You can name-call all you want and call me a stat-head or a geek or new age. But that’s a simple question. And I didn’t use anything like VORP or Win Shares to make my argument.
Or maybe the name-calling is to avoid the fact that even if you don’t use the so called new age stats, Utley still comes out as clearly more valuable than Howard.
By Lee in S GA
October 15, 2008 1:26 PM | Link to this
But then again, McCann never had an AB above AA before he came to the Bigs, either.
Good point McFann
If Schafer does follow in McCann’s footsteps, except with a tad more speed, we do have something special to look forward to.
By DAP
October 15, 2008 1:26 PM | Link to this
maybe i dont understand the stat…but is it the probability that the team wins the game if a particular player appears in the game?
if thats right, then you cant use the stat to compare utley, and everyday player, with lidge, a player who appears in games almost always when the team is already winning the game.
By Tomahawkin
October 15, 2008 1:35 PM | Link to this
Nate I will co-sign on your 12:41 post fregarding Schafer…After watching what happened to George Lombard 6 years ago, I wait to judge someone until the hits the grind of the big league level on a consistant basis…
Also No to D. Lowe, an overrated 35 year old pitcher who will definitely not be worth going for especially if contracts get overinflated like it did when A.J. Burnett, Jason Marquis, and Gil Meche hit the market a couple of years ago, Look how those guys have fared since signing those off the wall contracts…
By Shaun
October 15, 2008 1:35 PM | Link to this
Braveheart, the question is should you punish the guy, when giving out an individual award, who goes 5-for-5 for a horrible team? I don’t think anyone should vote against a guy because his team didn’t take advantage of his value; not when the award is an individual award.
I do like the Win Probability stat. Definitely is useful. But it undervalues and punishes individual players who perform well in lop-sided games. It also rewards pitchers for defensive plays. If a closer comes in with the tying run on third in the ninth and his team records an out with a spectacular play, the closer gets the credit and not the defensive player(s).
By AZ Brave
October 15, 2008 1:38 PM | Link to this
DOB - I saw Hayes Carll live last night at a small bar in Tucson Arizona. One of the best shows I’ve ever seen. Awesome!! BS’d with him for a while too. He’s a really cool, laid back guy.
Thanks for turning me on to his music!!
By McFann Ô
October 15, 2008 1:39 PM | Link to this
Lee in S GA—
Thanks. Actually, I don’t know a whole lot about Schafer. I just thought I’d point that out. I agree with you.
By Hoosier Aaron
October 15, 2008 1:58 PM | Link to this
*DAP
(i edited it down a little) based on that post, it sounds like you think peavy is worth about half of what he will get, thats why i asked for some pitchers who can win 12-17 for about $7.5mil per year, which is about half of the yearly average of peavy’s contract.
Honestly, you’re kind of putting words in my mouth - or not completely understanding my point. The half (50%) could be moved up - agreed. However, I used half (really a dart on the wall) based on the fact the Friars are not going to give Peavy to us for Reyes and Prado. If they’re willing to accept those two guys - maybe I’d pay (say) 80% of his salary. If they want (insert top prospects here) then the dollars I’d pay would be less.
As far as free agency - that really is a non factor here since he is not a free agent - and that was not part of my post at all. Yes - if he were - he’d pile up some big bucks.
Dumb not to peek at him - certainly. HOWEVER, for $64 million - he’s not the only pretty girl at the dance.
Finally - I’ll let you pursue Peavy if you agree to leave my checkbook alone.
By Shaun
October 15, 2008 2:06 PM | Link to this
Braveheart, just looking through baseballreference.com at box scores and win probability.
I pulled up the August 26 Braves-Marlins game. The Braves won 10-9.
The biggest play in terms of win probability was Kelly Johnson’s 9th inning single to left with no outs and the Braves down by a run.
Infante led off the ninth with a single. Prado doubled to score him. Francoeur then singled and Prado scored. Then Johnson singled. Johnson’s single was the turning point in terms of the Braves’ probability to win but was what Johnson did any more impressive than other hits that inning? Was Johnson the most valuable player for the Braves that game just because his hit was a turning point? Maybe but not necessarily. Escobar, for instance, was on base four times that game and always in the middle of something.
By BravesFanInRockies
October 15, 2008 2:06 PM | Link to this
DOB,
Thanks for lighting the hot stove before the offseason begins.
From the last blog, and all the speculation about where a Hendrix/ELP band might have gone? Greg Lake was an early if not a founding member of King Crimson (along with Fripp — you were right, DOB); maybe they would have gone in the dense, prog-rock direction of early ’70s Crimson. (I’m basically a blues-Americana guy who enjoys the ’80s-’90s Crimson with Belew. Pop hooks plus world beat plus Frippertronics? Those dudes were something.)
BTW, I saw Ringo and the All-Star Band in 2001 and Lake was with Ringo. They played “In the Court of the Crimson King” — and “Welcome Back My Friends” as a trio with Sheila E. on drums and Howard Jones on keyboards. Weirdest performance I’ve ever witnessed.
By DAP
October 15, 2008 2:07 PM | Link to this
i dont know how much khalil greene is owed in 2009, but i think over paying for a year for a backup SS and 3B is worth getting peavy, if we have to take greene in the deal.
if we could get them to trade us giles along with peavy it would save them the $3mil buyout and we would have a OBP machine for a year in LF. id be ok with that.
my dream senrio is that they would package gonzalez with peavy! dang…i dont see any way they would do that, but wouldnt that be sweet? it would probably take us trading kotchman, three of our minor league pitchers not named hanson, morton, lillibridge, b. jones, flowers, and either gorkys or shafer…maybe. im saying that based on the fact they want young players, are desperate to dump payrole, and peavy has a no trade clause that i think will benefit us.
By DAP
October 15, 2008 2:11 PM | Link to this
hoosier aaron …or not completely understanding my point.
completly possible. based on your past post, i guess your saying he is worth the money OR he is worth prospects in a trade, but he is not worth both. correct? i get that position.
Finally - I’ll let you pursue Peavy if you agree to leave my checkbook alone.
deal.
By Efrim
October 15, 2008 2:19 PM | Link to this
Just saw this posted on a Jim Callis chat on ESPN.com:
Eric (Atlanta): Hi Jim, Alot of talk around Braves nation about Jake Peavy? After the Teixeira trade, shouldn’t they be weary of dealing Heyward and Hanson for Peavy? It would be nice to see these guys in an Atlanta uniform, ya know?
Jim Callis: (2:14 PM ET ) I agree. I think the Braves are farther from serious contention than just one pitcher away, and I’d be leery of giving up another big prospect package.
By Shaun
October 15, 2008 2:38 PM | Link to this
And I really don’t like voting starting pitchers ahead of position players who’ve had seasons like Pujols and Howard did this year.
It’s funny to put Pujols and Howard in the same class this year. Pujols finished second in the majors in batting average and on-base, and first in slugging. Howard wasn’t even in the top ten among NL firstbasemen in average or on-base and was third among NL firstbasemen in slugging. And that’s not even getting into baserunning or fielding.
By Blue Magic
October 15, 2008 2:40 PM | Link to this
So is 2009 the year Griffey plays the OF for the Braves (Assuming the White Sox don’t pick up his option)????
By TennesseePaul
October 15, 2008 2:47 PM | Link to this
But doesn’t the team have to have a lead in the 9th in order for a pitcher to qualify for a save?
No. The 9th inning doesn’t mean much other than the game is nearing end. The team must have a lead. The pitcher must get the final out. If the pitcher pitches more than 3 innings closing the game regardless of lead he gets a save. Lots of caveats, but 9th inning isn’t relevant except that it is the last inning of the game. Most relievers though get the save with 1 inning outings. But that’s a different discussion.
San Diego doesn’t have to trade Peavy. They want to reduce salary but they could do so by other means. If Peavy blocks all trades but a trade to Atlanta, and Atlanta only offers Corky, the Padres will hold. It’s that simple. I know the fire has been lit and the excitement is there but Towers isn’t under any obligation to dump Peavy. If he offers Hoffman, or Giles or some other players he could reduce payroll as well. And teams might be interested in Hall of Fame Hoffman. The return might not be huge but it would reduce payroll.
All that is known is that Towers has said no one is untradable. I haven’t read a story that states “Towers under serious pressure: MUST TRADE PEAVY”
And Pujols deserves the MVP. It doesn’t matter how you cut it Pujols is a metronome at the plate.
By Brian
October 15, 2008 2:52 PM | Link to this
Efrim- How many times do teams get a good(very good) chance to get one of the best pitchers in all of baseball? So, you don’t think with Peavy,Lowe?,Jurrjens,Hampton, a power bat, a healthy Soriano/Moylan/Smoltz in the pen, that we are far away from contending? I would like for them to keep Heyward because they haven’t had that kind of bat in the minors,really, since Chipper. As far as Hanson? Will he turn out better than Peavy is the question? Maybe,maybe not, but they have to take a chance at getting him. I’d hope just one of Hanson or Schafer/Johnson/ 2 or 3 lower P prospects would be enough, but who knows. I’m glad you’re not running my team!!
By Efrim
October 15, 2008 2:55 PM | Link to this
Tennesee Paul
Re: Towers/Peavy talks. Well said brother. Not sure why people think they HAVE to trade Peavy.
By Brian
October 15, 2008 2:58 PM | Link to this
Efrim- Not sure yet if my post went through( I tried to turn the computer off real quick) but I completly misread your 2:19 post! My bad! It’s been a very long morning, so that’s my excuse! That post shoulda gone to Eric and Jim.
By Efrim
October 15, 2008 3:02 PM | Link to this
Brian
Read the posts man. That is really all I am going to say.
By P-Town Brave
October 15, 2008 3:03 PM | Link to this
DAP
I want to say that you have had 3 of the most intelligent posts on here I’ve read today…keep that up!
Lee in GA
I think I’ve solved our problem…we take Greene in the deal and his 6.5M under market as well contract and in a year where SS are hard to find in FA and spin him off to Detroit who is looking specifically for a slick fielding SS and use him as a building piece towards getting Maggs….
Sounds like a good start to the off-season to me…what do you guys think?
By Efrim
October 15, 2008 3:06 PM | Link to this
Brian
No sweat man. It is misleading at times. I have been destroyed by certain bloggers because they see my name and then assume I wrote that stuff.
By David O'Brien
October 15, 2008 3:06 PM | Link to this
Dave, You claim that a friend of Peavy e-mailed you. How can you be so sure that this friend is legit?Veer
Can’t be sure, just feel pretty good about it after exchanging couple other e-mails with him.
How can we be sure that you are not hyping all this up just to get people to post on blog and create rumors?Veer
You can’t be. If you think I’d put my reputation on the line for the sake of getting people to post on a blog, well, I won’t even bother trying to dispel that. You choose to trust or believe what you want to or who you want to.
I could claim to be Peavys friend and e-mail you and you would be take me as legit just because it makes your blog look good?Veer
Probably not, because I doubt you’d have any information that would convince me you were legit. But you can sure give it a try. You got my e-mail address? it’s dobrien@ajc.com. Go for it.
I cant believe you are going through all this just to get more hits on this blogVeer
Is that a question, or a statement, or what? What are you saying, that you do think I’m doing it for blog hits, or that you don’t believe I would do it? Not that it really matters, but I’m curious what your meaning was.
By Shaun
October 15, 2008 3:07 PM | Link to this
So is 2009 the year Griffey plays the OF for the Braves (Assuming the White Sox don’t pick up his option)????
Why would the Braves want a soon-to-be 39-year-old outfielder who has basically been around a league average hitter the past three seasons and is probably going to command a pretty good sized salary?
By David O'Brien
October 15, 2008 3:11 PM | Link to this
Blue Magic, re: your 2:40 p.m. post. I was thinking about that a couple days ago, about how it makes more sense now than it ever did when all the unfounded rumors about him coming here were spreading a couple years back.
As a one-year solution, perhaps in a slightly less than full-time role, it does make some sense. Haven’t asked about him yet or heard anything to indicate Braves might be interested, but it wouldn’t shock me.
Perhaps Veer can include Griffey in the e-mail to me, claim to be Griffey’s friend or something.
By Efrim
October 15, 2008 3:11 PM | Link to this
P Town Brave
Your proposal at 3:03 would be a good offseason, period.
By mbatl
October 15, 2008 3:12 PM | Link to this
10Paul, I doubt Towers could offer Hoffman or Giles. Hoffman is a free agent - so the decision is to sign him or not; and if they do sign him, he’s got 10/5 rights.
And I read that if Giles’ option is picked up for $9 mil, he’s got a no-trade clause for 2010 (and he’s vetoed trades in the past).
The Padres could let both of those guys walk if they want to save money (though Giles has a $3 mil buyout), but they can’t trade them, I don’t think. (at least not freely… would have to get players’ approval)
I just suspect that the owners’ financial problems are creating at least some urgency to trade Peavy to facilitate a sale.
By DAP
October 15, 2008 3:13 PM | Link to this
p town brave wow, thanks!
good thought about flipping greene if we have to take him in the trade. he is a very good defensive SS and has alot of power potential. it seem like there would be teams that would willing willing to take a chance he’d have a rebound year.
By David O'Brien
October 15, 2008 3:14 PM | Link to this
Jim Callis: (2:14 PM ET ) I agree. I think the Braves are farther from serious contention than just one pitcher away, and I’d be leery of giving up another big prospect package.Efrim
The Braves agree, too, which is why they’re aiming to land two proven starting pitchers and a power-hitting outfielder, and NOT just one starting pitcher.
Oh, and I like how Hanson AND Heyward got thrown into that rumor, when Wren has said exactly the opposite — that they won’t trade their premier “next wave” of talent, including those two. Unbelievable.
By David O'Brien
October 15, 2008 3:17 PM | Link to this
AZ Brave, outstandingl. I bet that was an awesome show, seeing that dude in a small place. And that’s cool that you got to meet him. Always adds a little something to the experience, like when I shook James McMurtry’s hand after the show in Athens a couple weeks back.
By McFann Ô
October 15, 2008 3:18 PM | Link to this
DOB—
Your 3:06 was great!
By Shaun
October 15, 2008 3:18 PM | Link to this
TennesseePaul, yes, I suspect the only reason Peavy is on the market now is because this is the time the Padres know they can get the most for him. I honestly think they are putting him out there to try to get three or four solid youngsters that have a decent shot to contribute significantly in the majors with at least one or two becoming very good to great major leaguers. Anything less, they may as well hold on to him until closer to the end of his current deal or just let him walk. It’s not rocket surgery here. This isn’t a Peavy fire sale.
By Lee in S GA
October 15, 2008 3:22 PM | Link to this
P-Town Brave
Realized it is a long shot but I think you are on the right track with that suggestion about Greene to the Tigers if the Braves have to take him in a deal for Peavy.
By McFann Ô
October 15, 2008 3:23 PM | Link to this
Perhaps Veer can include Griffey in the e-mail to me, claim to be Griffey’s friend or something.
LOL! Good one!
By Efrim
October 15, 2008 3:23 PM | Link to this
DOB
The Braves agree, too, which is why they’re aiming to land two proven starting pitchers and a power-hitting outfielder, and NOT just one starting pitcher.
Who knows man. Maybe Callis didn’t read Frank Wren’s quotes.
Oh, and I like how Hanson AND Heyward got thrown into that rumor, when Wren has said exactly the opposite — that they won’t trade their premier “next wave” of talent, including those two. Unbelievable.
I didn’t post that question. Just saw it on a Jim Callis chat. I agree with you. Braves aren’t trading both of them for Peavy. Far too much to give up.
By mbatl
October 15, 2008 3:24 PM | Link to this
And I read that if Giles’ option is picked up for $9 mil, he’s got a no-trade clause for 2010 (and he’s vetoed trades in the past).
meant 2009, of course…
By McFann Ô
October 15, 2008 3:26 PM | Link to this
P-Town Brave I want to say that you [DAP] have had 3 of the most intelligent posts on here I’ve read today
One of those being, of course, your 9:32.
; )
By Mike
October 15, 2008 3:27 PM | Link to this
DOB - great post and enjoy the Peavy banter. Tell you what man, you are dead on about the Hold Steady. I cannot get this disc out of heavy rotation. Sort of a cross between Springsteen, Costello with Cheap Trick in the background. Got turned on to them 2 yrs ago with Boys and Girls in America. The new record is more focused and for some reason the singer’s voice is easier to take. Great call.
By Lew
October 15, 2008 3:31 PM | Link to this
Poor Poor Little Shaun-I don’t agree with all his numbers and called him a Stat Head and New Age. I’m such a Bad Boy. I guess I should go to my room without supper tonight and lose my sand box privileges. Maybe do an hour of detention for p** off the nerd. Whatever.
By David O'Brien
October 15, 2008 3:33 PM | Link to this
Now, tell me why in the world someone would think Howard was more valuable than Utley?Shaun
OK, let me try to put this clearly. A lot of voters, in addition to looking at overall stats for a season, will focus on what a player did to help a team during the second half of the season, IF that team was in a tight race and pulled away during the second half of the season. Again, IF. In the NL East, that’s precisely what the Phillies did. They were even with the Mets until pulling away during the stretch drive.
Having said that, here’s how in the world not just someone, but I’m guessing just about every MVP voter, will have Ryan Howard ahead of Utley on their ballots (please mark that down, Shaun, that I predicted it, then you can accuse all or most of the 16 writers who cover baseball and vote on the MVP of not being as smart as you when the NL MVP is announced):
In the second half of the season, when the Phillies outplayed the rest of the NL East to win the division title, Chase Utley hit .292 with 16 doubles, 8 homers, 35 RBI, 45 runs, and an .855 OPS (.390 OBP, .465 slugging) in 65 games.
Meanwhile, Ryan Howard hit .276 with 14 doubles, 20 homers, 62 RBI, 43 runs, and a .953 OPS (.360 OBP, .593 slugging) in 66 games.
MVP races are not won from April to June, my friend. They’re just not.
And if you can’t look at the second-half difference between Howard and Utley and understand why all, or at least the vast majority, of voters are going to vote Howard over Utley for MVP, and why the Phillies beat writer from the Inquirer told me he’d vote Howard first, well, I don’t know what else to tell you. When you change games like Howard does, when you put fear into the opposing pitcher and manager like he does, it means so much more than your high strikeouts or low batting average.
Most of us judge players by how they perform overall, but give more weight to how they perform when it matters most (and keep in mind, postseason performance is irrelevant to these awards because the votes must be in before the first postseason game is played). In the sabermetric world, perhaps Utley or — laughable this — Pat Burrell was as valuable to the Phillies this season as Howard was. But not in the humans-who-observe-and-vote world.
Now Lidge, you can make a solid argument for. Very solid. But not Utley, and under no circumstances Burrell.
By nolie
October 15, 2008 3:34 PM | Link to this
I would imagine that Anderson with his speed could bat lead-off… just a thoughtGerman
He needs to improve his ability to gert on base to be an effective lead-off guy. So far in his career he has not shown that ability on a long term basis. Speed is great all other things being at least relatively equal, but it doesn’t make up for other lacks in a players game. FTMP OBP is more important in lead-off guy than speed if both are not available in the same player
By AZ Brave
October 15, 2008 3:35 PM | Link to this
DOB - It was really cool! He played for at least 2hrs and he was just hanging out in the bar before and after the show. I told him the story about how I discovered his music, about you recommending it. He thought that was pretty cool.
By Lew
October 15, 2008 3:44 PM | Link to this
BNravesFanIn Rockies-Dude, you’re right-Lake WAS a founding member of King Crimson. He was on their first two albums, Court of the Crimson King and In The Wake of Poseidon (not nearly as good as Court). He played bass and sang. He was actually a somewhat mellowing influence on Crimson and Fripp. He (Fripp) and Crimson became increasingly Schizoid over the years. Peter Sinfield, who wrote most of Court’s lyrics, collaborated with Lake on ELP material, as well.
I saw Crimson in the middle 70’s on The Lark’s Tongues/Starless and Bible Black tour and they were phenomenal. Bill Bruford was their drummer and John Wetton was on bass and did the vocals.
Saw ELP four times (apparently once with Savannah Guy-though we didn’t know each other at the time). I also saw the Emerson/Palmer band Three and got to go back stage during the show and meet Emerson afterwards. He talked to my son for about ten minutes about taking piano lessons.
I think in any Hendrix/Emerson jam, Jimi would have taken to the Moog like the proverbial Duck to water. Those two were made for each other. Hooking Jimi up with Bob Moog could have proven incredibly interesting, as well-Probably ground breaking musically, without a doubt.
By richbrave
October 15, 2008 3:47 PM | Link to this
DON’T GIVE UP THE FARM FOR PEAVY. If it’s not a fire sale, move on to lesser known talents comparable to JUIRJENS. SAN DIEGO is gonna’ want too much of BRAVES future to consider any deal for PEAVY.
By ncscoots
October 15, 2008 3:48 PM | Link to this
Braveheart, I’ve been saying “my friend” long before John McCain had a glimmer of a Presidential aspiration, LOL. But I probably should put use of the phrase on hold for awhile, in deference to the man’s unflagging use of a similar one. :-)
I had a chance once to have a conversation with the man, but he never called me “my friend”. Ha!
By brent a.
October 15, 2008 3:49 PM | Link to this
I’m just glad that DOB & Shaun are such good friends, or else, this could get really heated ;-).
By David O'Brien
October 15, 2008 3:51 PM | Link to this
AZ Brave fan, and others into the rootsy/country stuff: You should check out James “Slim” Hand, who’s had one CD out couple years back, called “The Truth Will Set You Free.” Still keep it in my car, to crank loud when needed. But I should tell you, he’s straight, hard country, about the closest thing I’ve ever heard to Hank Williams — the original Hank, that is.
Go to his website and you can listen to some cuts off the album:
http://www.jamesslimhand.com/music.html
Try “Here Lies a Good Old Boy” or “In The Corner, At the Table, By The Jukebox.” This is real country, not the crap you hear on pop-country stations.
By David O'Brien
October 15, 2008 3:55 PM | Link to this
Steve from OH: Didn’t mean for my previous post to be quite so harsh to you. The part about “make a relevant point.” Nothing personal, and love your input here. Don’t agree with a lot of it, but respect that you have a leg to stand on, that you support your views with stats and reasons.
By brent a.
October 15, 2008 3:57 PM | Link to this
Howard came to the plate with 483 runners on base this season while Utley came up with 444 runner on base this season. That’s a difference of 39 baserunners. That’s awful close to the difference in their RBI totals of 42. Shaun
Shaun, Just curious … Are you insinuating that the 42 add’l runners that Ryan Howard drove in were those 39 extra runners he had an opportunity to drive in, plus, three other stragglers?
Come on! You are a better mathematician than that.
To do what you’re doing, you’d have to apply a percentage of the number of runners that each man drove in, based upon the total # of opportunities (themselves included, seemingly), and then see what percentage Howard drove in vs. what % Utley drove in to even get a vague sense of what those add’l baserunners meant to Howard’s RBI total.
Not just say that Howard had 39 add’l runners, and hey, what do you know (?!?), he had 42 more RBI.
And since RBI don’t matter, I’m surprised that you even care. :)
By Shaun
October 15, 2008 3:59 PM | Link to this
DOB, it’s pretty strange that voters will put the first half on the back-burner as if those games don’t count as much in the standings.
And you say you can’t make a solid argument for Utley. I’ve done it several times recently. Utley was far superior to Howard in 2008 in average and on-base and was close in slugging. He was the better fielder and baserunner in 2008. He had more sacrifices. Howard had more RBI but had the difference in their RBI totals is almost exactly the same as their difference in runners on when they came to the plate this season.
I do not doubt Howard will get more support than Utley; in fact I’m certain Howard will get more support. But it’s clear he should not. And that’s not my opinion, that’s what the evidence says. And that’s the opinion of most of the folks who look at evidence instead of only paying attention after the All-Star break. And it’s pretty obvious to anyone who looks at this objectively.
I’ll just ask the questions Neyer posed yesterday: “Is the Most Valuable Player the player who makes the greatest all-around contribution for six months? Or is he the one-dimensional player who gives his team two or three great months?”
To me the former sounds more like the correct answer. But maybe I just live in the “sabermetric world” whatever that means.
By Lost In America
October 15, 2008 4:02 PM | Link to this
Being someone who has been there plenty and lived there and also not necessarily a map or geography expert, but knowing where things are on maps tells me that St. Louis is not in the south and not much closer to Jake getting back to his family so I think they would be out as well…P-Town
WOW! You don’t think St Louis is much closer than San Diego in getting him nearer his home? I also guess you haven’t been there much if you think St Louis is farther from Alabama than Houstan is. Ain’t even close dude, at least 200 miles difference. Maybe you should get a little education after all. You one of them guys who thinks Washingto DC is in the state of Washington, too?
By Shaun
October 15, 2008 4:08 PM | Link to this
DOB, it’s convenient to go back to Pat Burrell as a way to attack me so that no one has to address the fact that Utley was better than Howard at every aspect of the game in 2008 except for power; and it’s not as if Utley was a slouch in the power department.
Pat Burrell was reasonably close in value to Howard. No one every said he was just as valuable. I’ve said that over and over but you and others continue to put words in my mouth. It’s just a way to avoid the fact that Howard’s candidacy is all about the second half, HR and RBI as opposed to Utley who was better at nearly every aspect of the game if we take 2008 as a whole.
By mbatl
October 15, 2008 4:11 PM | Link to this
funny how often this blog morphs (regresses?) into a Howard vs. Utley debate. Why are we so concerned with who Philly’s MVP is? I guess they present a good contrast of counting numbers (HR, RBI) vs. OBP. Kinda strange though.
By Shaun
October 15, 2008 4:15 PM | Link to this
brent a., the point about individual RBI totals is that it clearly is dependent on how often other hitters get on base, how many baserunners are on when a hitter comes up.
You seriously think it’s irrelevant if a hitter comes to the plate with 39 more runners than another?
The point is if Howard hit with 39 more runners on and if he’s so much better or more valuable than Utley, shouldn’t he have driven in significantly more than 39 more runners? But he didn’t. He drove in 42 more runners, which is not significantly more than 39.
By rammerjammer
October 15, 2008 4:16 PM | Link to this
Mobile to Atlanta - 329 miles
Mobile to Houston - 468 miles
Mobile to St. Louis - 647 miles
www.randmcnally.com
By Efrim
October 15, 2008 4:20 PM | Link to this
mbatl
It does seem to always get back to that.
By Shaun
October 15, 2008 4:22 PM | Link to this
mbatl, I guess it also presents a good contract of playing well an entire season versus playing well the last two or three months.
By Lew
October 15, 2008 4:23 PM | Link to this
Shaun-Dude, you’ve made the argument ad nauseum and no one is buying it. Just because you believe it to be so and you bludgeon anyone who comes within arm’s reach of your argument, doesn’t give it any more validity or change the way people view the situation-in particular those who actually make the decisions.
Dude, you are so inflexible that its a wonder you haven’t turned into a marble sculpture and ended up in the Guggenheim as an object of more interest than you are now.
By McFann Ô
October 15, 2008 4:30 PM | Link to this
mbatl Why are we so concerned with who Philly’s MVP is?
I don’t know. But if the Rays aren’t careful, the Fillies are gonna have the WS MVP, too…and I bet I know who it would be…
BTW—I’m calling a Rays-Fillies World Series.
By McFann Ô
October 15, 2008 4:32 PM | Link to this
Shaun I guess it also presents a good contract of playing well an entire season versus playing well the last two or three months.
We had a couple guys that played well for the entire season…
Well, OK, one of them did kinda slip towards the end…
By nolie
October 15, 2008 4:33 PM | Link to this
tim dierks from MLB trade rumors said this:
Even if Peavy is picky about his destination, though, there is no reason for Towers to accept a package that does not begin with Jason Heyward or Tommy Hanson. He has plenty of time to explore possible Peavy trades.
i think that is incorrect. the fact that peavy is picky and has a no trade clause means that if peavy want to come to the braves, and the pads need to unload payrole, we could get peavy for corky miller.DAP
not really how it works guy.Tim is pretty close to the truth. It is a SMALL advantage to have Peavy wanting to come to Atlanta, but it can only avail us if the Pads are happy enough with our offer to make it worth their while. Di you honestly believe that Peavy would turn down a trade to St Louis for instance if that was in place? A team within a couple hundred miles of his home with a much better chance of winning than SD had, probably more that the Braves too? I seriously doubt that he would.any more than I think Hampton would take less to resign just cause thats what he said.It might not be his first choice, but I’m betting Peavy would be happy enough with that option to accept St Louis in a NY second.
By BB FAN
October 15, 2008 4:35 PM | Link to this
Shaun,
If Utley came to the plate with 483 runners on base like Howard would have then he would have had approximately 113 RBIs. Utley drove in 104 of 444 and Howard 146 of 483. You have to take the percentage. Only a fool would just add the additional 39 base runner to Utley’s RBI total.
By David O'Brien
October 15, 2008 4:39 PM | Link to this
I do not doubt Howard will get more support than Utley; in fact I�m certain Howard will get more support. But it�s clear he should not. And that�s not my opinion, that�s what the evidence says. And that�s the opinion of most of the folks who look at evidence instead of only paying attention after the All-Star break. And it�s pretty obvious to anyone who looks at this objectively.Shaun
Does Shaun feel better now? Good. Moving on….
Personally, I couldn’t care less if Howard or Utley gets more MVP votes; I’m just telling you that, without talking to anyone about it other than the Inquirer beat writer, who isn’t even voting for MVP this year, I’ll predict that Utley doesn’t finish ahead of Howard on more than, oh, two or three of the 32 ballots cast for MVP (two from writers in each NL city). But again, I honestly don’t care.
I’d vote Pujols and Howard, or Howard and Pujols, at the top. Since I don’t vote, haven’t broken it down closely enough to decide which I’d put first, but probably Pujols. After that, I haven’t examined it enough to figure how I’d rank the rest in a top 10 ballot (MVP voting is top 10 on each ballot; other awards are only top three on ballot). The years I voted for MVP, it took a lot of time and spread sheets (or at least having the stats spread out in front of me, on sheets) to rank them, especially once you got past the first few obvious ones.
By brent a.
October 15, 2008 4:40 PM | Link to this
Shaun,
For someone to be as smart as you seem to be, you have a terrible knack for missing the point.
I never said it was irrelevant.
I’m simply noting that you attempted to tie the 39 additional runners too closely with the 42 additonal RBI’s.
Instead, you should focus more on a total % of runs driven in, and see what impact those add’l 39 baserunners had on Howard’s total.
This should be very, very simple for you.
By beachcomber
October 15, 2008 4:42 PM | Link to this
From my Brave’s source, I’m hearing Escobar and probably one or two others for Peavy. Hate to lose Yunel but to get one of the best three or four pitchers in baseball, you can’t give up chopped liver. Plus I suspect Yunel is not exactly fitting the mold of a Bobby Cox player - whether that’s good or bad.
Always been a Mike Hampton man - know I’m in the minority. But I would think Mike owes Atlanta a little bit of a discount for their patience with him over the past several years - if they even want to sign him.
By mbatl
October 15, 2008 4:42 PM | Link to this
BTW—I’m calling a Rays-Fillies World Series.
Wow, McFann, you’re way out on a limb there, what with both series at 3-1. LOL.
By Steve from OH
October 15, 2008 4:42 PM | Link to this
DOB:
Thanks. Ditto. I think we agree on a lot more than we both think…just some (specific) things get beaten to death on this blog.
Efrim:
Braves aren’t trading both of them for Peavy. Far too much to give up.
Right. Which is why I sometimes make absurd trade proposals knowing I can’t include those guys.
Oh, and Talking Chop is doing a nice overview of our LH and RH starting pitchers in the minors. Y’all should check it out.
By Steve from OH
October 15, 2008 4:49 PM | Link to this
Baseball America’s minor league transaction list has Jonathan Schuerholz being re-activated from the inactive list…not sure what to make of that. Certainly didn’t see that one coming.
By nolie
October 15, 2008 4:50 PM | Link to this
And I really don’t like voting starting pitchers ahead of position players who’ve had seasons like Pujols and Howard did this year. Starters, though they can have an undeniable affect on the bullpen by going deep into games, and can end team skids, etc, to me just don’t have the same impact as a position player who plays ever day, not in terms of MVP qualification.DOB
yes, my opinion too. Not that many starters have been MVP and IIRC only 2 relievers. I’d go Pujols this year in the NL. Guy does it all, and for a little extra of that intangibles stuff just for Lew, he did it while playing hurt most of the season. Maybe THE REAPER should be second? TIC
By David O'Brien
October 15, 2008 4:54 PM | Link to this
Beachcomber, that wouldn’t shock me, if Escobar was involved. In which case, the “other team” Buster said he’d heard might be expanded a proposal with San Diego to include Khalil (which Buster speculated might be St. Louis) could well be Atlanta.
By Blue Magic
October 15, 2008 4:55 PM | Link to this
DOB - Thanks for agreeing.
I’m not trying to start the annual rumor, but it just makes sense this time. I think he would be a cheaper option (with less yrs) than the other free agents out there. We’ll see, I guess.
I really would like to see Brandon Jones given the shot for everyday LF, but that is strictly my optinion. Any chance that’ll happen? Or is he just tradebait?
Thanks, John
By Efrim
October 15, 2008 4:56 PM | Link to this
Steve from OH
Right. Which is why I sometimes make absurd trade proposals knowing I can’t include those guys.
I don’t think they are trading both for Peavy. Both. Maybe one of them, but not both.
But if they aren’t dealing either…..and not trading Freeman or Schafer, then I am going to assume that they are going to give up Kelly Johnson or Yunel Escobar as part of the package. Who knows? Maybe they expand the deal and get Khalil Greene back. He isn’t very good, but maybe it is a way to keep our top prospects in the farm. I’m not sure how I feel about it.
Talking Chop reveals their Top 25 on Friday. And John Sickels of Minorleagueball.com will reveal his Top 20 Braves on Friday(I think) as well.
By McFann Ô
October 15, 2008 5:00 PM | Link to this
mbatl—
I know. I don’t know how I picked those two teams. I guess I like the “underdogs”.
: P
By Efrim
October 15, 2008 5:05 PM | Link to this
Beachcomber
Escobar and one or two others? Depending on the others, then it might make some sense. I suppose if that is the way to not give up our top prospects, then I would be okay with that.
By David O'Brien
October 15, 2008 5:14 PM | Link to this
Efrim, Khalil definitely has flaws and hasn’t become the player he was projected to be, and he was terrible this year (.213/./260/.339).
But in 2007, he had 44 doubles, 27 homers and 97 RBI, huge production for a shortstop (despite a .291 OBP). And he did have 15 homers in three consecutive seasons before that, with 190 RBI in that three-year stretch and fewer than 100 strikeouts in all three of those seasons.
Defensively, he’s good. Only has 28 errors over the past three seasons combined, with fielding percentages of .980 or above each year.
And he’s only made a total of 30 errors in
By Steve from OH
October 15, 2008 5:22 PM | Link to this
Efrim, hey man, I’m just going on what DOB reported: no Schafer, FF, JH, TH, and that Frank thinks the infield is pretty set. I know my proposals aren’t too sweet.
I’m not sure what to think about Khalil, either. Do we take him and then bench him (assuming Yunel and KJ stay put)? Do we really want him to start? Do we flip him right away? Tough decisions, man. Glad I’m not Frank Wren right now.
By geauxbraves2000
October 15, 2008 5:22 PM | Link to this
Pujols over Howard any day of the week. Pujols is a pure hitter, the best hitter in baseball right now in my opinion. No stats to back me up, just what my eyes have seen. When he gets in a grove, good luck getting him out. Howard, 199Ks this year, oy.
Geaux Braves!!
By nolie
October 15, 2008 5:33 PM | Link to this
Always been a Mike Hampton man - know I’m in the minority. But I would think Mike owes Atlanta a little bit of a discount for their patience with him over the past several years - if they even want to sign himBeachcomber
Escobar and only one or two others, huh? Hmm. They have already said that they told Hampton that they want him back, but I see no reason to think that Hammy oews them anything. It’s a fact of baseball life, especially with pitchers, and what other options did they have? If they had cut him they would still have had to pay him. The guy would be crazy to turn down a significant raise in money from another source.
By stynes
October 15, 2008 5:43 PM | Link to this
Interesting to hear Escobar’s name mentioned. It wasn’t long ago he would have seemed to be near untouchable in the Brave’s eyes. Has his star faltered, do they have high an opinion of Greene, or are they just that desperate to get a big arm?
By Wayne
October 15, 2008 5:50 PM | Link to this
Escobar and a couple of others for Peavy and Greene? I do that in a heartbeat, and I love Escobar’s game.
By David O'Brien
October 15, 2008 5:52 PM | Link to this
Stynes, it’s not about Escobar faltering or a high opinion of Greene as much as it’s about getting a bonafide, legit No. 1-caliber pitcher, one of the very best starters in the game, and in his prime. If they think Peavy can stay healthy, there’s no other reason not to trade for him. Zero. He’s a big-time ace, man.
By David O'Brien
October 15, 2008 5:56 PM | Link to this
Steve from OH: The only reason you’d be expanding it to include Greene is if the Padres wanted Escobar. In other words, you’d be getting the SS to replace Escobar. I feel comfortable saying they wouldn’t trade for Greene unless they were getting him to move into the SS job because they might be losing Yunel in that same deal.
And when I ran it by someone who probably has a very good idea bout it, it was not shot down. People aren’t revealing much, though, as this is a very sensitive matter, due tofPeavy’s profile and how many other teams want him.
By mbatl
October 15, 2008 6:07 PM | Link to this
Yep. We could live with Greene at SS for a year. The bat is erratic, but he does have power. And he plays a very good SS. If Escobar is the key piece in gettng Peavy, and lowers the price in terms of prospects, I say do it.
In 2010, we look at Lil’ Bridge or Hicks at SS, or find other options.
I’m not dumping on Yunel… but he’s certainly not one of the untouchables, in my opinion.
By TennesseePaul
October 15, 2008 6:08 PM | Link to this
Payne: It’s not rocket surgery here
What is rocket surgery?
By Shaun
October 15, 2008 6:11 PM | Link to this
Lew, here is the argument, so that it is clear for you:
Utley and Howard have a virtually identical number of plate appearances in 2008 (in face Utley has a few more) so playing time is basically equal.
Utley had a significantly higher batting average. Utley had a significantly higher on-base percentage. Utley was fairly close in slugging (much closer to Howard in slugging than Howard was to him in on-base). [This is taking 2008 as a whole because last I checked it was the 2008 MVP and not the last two or three months MVP.]
Utley was the better fielder playing a tougher fielding position.
Utley was the better baserunner.
I don’t know that anyone would argue against any of the above. Maybe I’m wrong about that.
If all of the above means Howard is more valuable to you, what can I do? If a player is better at nearly every important aspect of the game throughout the entire season and you still think he is less valuable, you have a completely different definition of valuable than I do.
DOB, It’s Pujols. He’s by far the most valuable player in the NL in 2008.
I could care less about the Phillies MVP except that Howard is probably going to get significant support and he’s not even the most valuable player on his own team. Yes, the voters will be wrong if Howard is above Pujols or even if he is above at least one of his teammates.
I suppose that Philly writer thinks the second half counts more in the standings and hasn’t watched Howard make outs a lot more often than Utley, play worse defense and run the bases worse. You’d think someone that watched Phillies games and gets paid to write about them would know more than some schmo like me or others who are merely relying on evidence.
By Efrim
October 15, 2008 6:15 PM | Link to this
Steve from OH
I am pretty sure the only way we get Khalil back is if we trade Escobar.
Escobar won’t be enough those. The one or two others aren’t going to be scrubs either. Those one or two others could be two of Rorhbough/Flowers/Hernandez/Locke/Delgado/Hicks/Lillibridge/Jones. What have you.
By Interested Observer
October 15, 2008 6:19 PM | Link to this
Instead of Escobar I say we offer Elvis Andrus along with Salty, Matt Harrison, Beau Jones, and Neftali Perez, for Peavy.
Oh, right. Never Mind!
By Brian
October 15, 2008 6:21 PM | Link to this
If Escobar is in a trade for Peavy and Green, than I kind of like the idea of turning Green and some others over to the Tigers for Ordonez. Who knows, he could get himself back to ‘07 form with Atlanta though.
By Shaun
October 15, 2008 6:24 PM | Link to this
TennesseePaul, an apparent failed attempt at humor. Rocket science, Brain surgery. Rocket surgery.
By Efrim
October 15, 2008 6:24 PM | Link to this
DOB
Defensively, he’s good. Only has 28 errors over the past three seasons combined, with fielding percentages of .980 or above each year.
Excellent point. The guy plays D as well as anyone at SS. 6.5 million? No problem if it helps us net Peavy. After 2009, that money comes off the books.
By Moby Grape
October 15, 2008 6:27 PM | Link to this
What is rocket surgery?TP
LOL. pretty much the same thing as Brain Science i think.
By Lew
October 15, 2008 6:27 PM | Link to this
Shaun-Will you please stop blathering? For crying out loud Dude, I understand your argument. Have in fact been bludgeoned by it for two freaking weeks now. I don’t agree with you. Freaking get over it already and move on. We’re all pretty damned tired of the rant.
By Efrim
October 15, 2008 6:27 PM | Link to this
Interested Observer
Instead of Escobar I say we offer Elvis Andrus along with Salty, Matt Harrison, Beau Jones, and Neftali Perez, for Peavy.
Low man. Real low…..
but funny, I must say.
By Efrim
October 15, 2008 6:27 PM | Link to this
Interested Observer
Instead of Escobar I say we offer Elvis Andrus along with Salty, Matt Harrison, Beau Jones, and Neftali Perez, for Peavy.
Low man. Real low…..
but funny, I must say.
By McFann Ô
October 15, 2008 6:30 PM | Link to this
Wayne Escobar and a couple of others for Peavy and Greene? I do that in a heartbeat
Yeah! Me, too! Holy cow…
Maybe Bobby could even make Greene cut his hair! Send Bennett after him…
By P-Town Brave
October 15, 2008 6:31 PM | Link to this
Lost in America
If you had enough education and had been reading the entire day you’d notice that it was in response to another post and the reason I chose to leave out Houston was not because I thought it was closer to Bama than St. Louis, but because Houston doesn’t have the pieces to get Peavy there…so game over, it doesn’t even need to be mentioned…thus why I didn’t…
This is strictly baseball talk and you try to come on here thinking you can prove someone wrong about geography…I mean really…and next thing you’re gonna tell me is that the Earth is flat…hmph! Honestly, are you Coach’s brother?
On to bigger things…would really hate to lose Yunel…its very hard to replace a guy of his potential long term….I just really don’t know how I should feel about that.
By Shaun
October 15, 2008 6:33 PM | Link to this
brent a. and BB Fan, I brought up RBI not to show who was better at driving in runs per opportunity in 2008. I brought it up to show an individual’s RBI total is highly dependent on teammates. If I wanted to figure out who was better at driving in runs when he got the chance in 2008, I would figure out percentages and all that.
Also, why not tie the 39 extra baserunners in to the 42 extra RBI? They no doubt had something to do with the difference.
By keylargo
October 15, 2008 6:36 PM | Link to this
I thought I would check the San Diego blog and see if they had as many Einsteins reading their blog as we have reading the Atlanta one. I swear this is the very first one in the Padres blog.
I feel like carrying the risk of that contract (Peavy’s) in this economy, and the way the Padres fans feel about the Padres administration, it makes sense to rebuild now with a Hershell Walker type deal.
If you guys remember, Dallas traded Walker to the Vikings for most of their roster and half of their draft choices for the next two years.
By David O'Brien
October 15, 2008 6:39 PM | Link to this
This Kings of Leon CD is really starting to grow on me. I think I went into the first listens with a negative attitude after not enjoying their appearance on SNL. But gotta say, it’s a solid album. Just a bit of a different sound for them, but I’m coming around to it….
And my second listen to the new Lucinda Williams CD, this time not while I was working, reveals it to also be better than my initial “good, not great,” review. It’s at least an, oh, “very good.” Maybe even more. Got some real interesting stuff on it….
Shaun, please give it a rest. You’re not convincing anyone. Or I should say, you’re certainly not convincing me. Quite the opposite. You’ve said nothing in these past weeks of this tiresome, trivial debate to make me think anything other than, you really don’t like Ryan Howard. Fine. But give it a rest.
Oh, and just so you know: You’re really not smarter or more enlightened than so many of the folks who cover baseball for a living and might happen to disagree with you. I know you think you are, but you’re not. Be content in your own firm belief that Chase Utley is more valuable than Ryan Howard and that Pat Burrell is almost as valuable as Howard.
That’s your opinion. No problems here. But why is it always so important for you to attempt (in vain) to try to convince everyone to come around to your way of thinking? It’s tired. Boring. Mind-numbing. Stop obsessing.
By Shaun
October 15, 2008 6:41 PM | Link to this
Lew, just trying to defend the name-calling (bludgeon and inflexible). You have yet to address the fact that the only edge in any important category Howard had in 2008 was in the power department and it wasn’t a huge edge. You call me a bludgeoner and inflexible and a stathead but you have yet to address that fact that Utley was better in 2008. The name calling is just a way to not have to address the fact that you seem to be unable to reconcile the fact that Utley being better doesn’t equal Utley being more valuable, because that is the only way your argument stands up.
The only way you and DOB and the Philly writer can be right is if most value has more to do with the final two months of the season and HR, RBI and SLG than who contributed more all around throughout the entire 2008 season.
By brent a.
October 15, 2008 6:48 PM | Link to this
Shaun,
Still amazingly brilliant at missing the point.
Of course there is a relation between the number of opportunities to drive in runners and the number a player actually drives.
But the point is that the number of runners that a player drives in to the number of extra runners on base is not a 1:1 ratio.
You know this. So quit playing dumb.
The point is that it’s an allocation/percentage issue.
Of course they are tied. It is the way you tied them that is wrong.
I know you’ll probably ignore this (just like you ignore most everything else that runs counter to exactly what you think); but you really do absolutely need to learn to stop and take a breath, and actually pay attention to what other people say. You might actually learn that not everyone is out to get you, or attempt to prove your stats are wrong.
There are other smart people out there in this world whom you might be able to learn something from.
By Lew
October 15, 2008 6:50 PM | Link to this
Shaun-Go find a flying saucer and give the aliens an anal probe. Our a*******holes hurt. Enough already.
By pabrave
October 15, 2008 6:51 PM | Link to this
You have to look at San Diego’s weak spots which are 2nd base, shortstop, catcher, starting pitching and outfielders. You will have to give up two or three everyday starters and two-three high level prospects. Think of the Dan Haren trade with more value for the Padres. Unfortunately, the Braves have a long rebuilding process and do not count on Smoltz, Glavine or Hudson for help. I saw Charlie Morton and Jo Jo Reyes in Philadelphia and they are not quality MLB pitchers. The Braves got old in a hurry and did not have the replacement players in their system to take over.
By AZ Brave
October 15, 2008 6:52 PM | Link to this
DOB - I just checked out the James “Slim” Hand website… I’ll definitely be buying that CD. Good stuff! And yes, you are right, that is REAL country.
By BravesFanInRockies
October 15, 2008 6:53 PM | Link to this
I suppose we could live with Spiccoli at SS if Peavy’s in the deal, too and we don’t have to give up too much more. Think we could give them Francouer and take Giles off their hands? A guy can dream …
IMO, hitting prospects project better than pitchers, so I’m hoping Heyward really is off-limits in any trade. I’d hate to lose Hanson, but who knows how a guy who’s never pitched above AA will do? Heyward just seems to have the skills that will translate into a fine big league career, perhaps a very special one.
The thing that scares me about Khalil is his freakishly low OBP. Stick him in the lineup with Frenchy (even though Greene may well put up better power stats than Francouer) and there’ll be a lot of 1-2-3 innings at the bottom of the order.
By Lew
October 15, 2008 6:54 PM | Link to this
Shaun-I swear you’re just like the kid in Jr. High who every day at lunchtime gets his head stuck in a commode as it’s flushed and then walks around every afternoon with a wet head wondering why he’s starting to mildew and why it keeps raining on him.
By BravesFanInRockies
October 15, 2008 6:58 PM | Link to this
Hey Lew,
I saw the 1996 Crimson tour with Fripp, Belew, Bruford, the awesome Tony Levin, Trey Gunn and Pat Mastelotto. What a show. This incarnation appeared on Conan O’Brien and because NBC used normal lighting on the stage, Fripp couldn’t sit in the shadows and twiddle his dials. He was dressed in camo and looked like a terrorist. It was a riot.
By brent a.
October 15, 2008 7:00 PM | Link to this
Shaun:
If you divide the 146 runs Howard drove in, into the 483 runners that were on base, that is .3023.
If you divide the 104 runs that Utley drove in, into the 444 runners that were on base, that is .2342.
If you back out Howard’s 48 hr’s from his RBI total, then you divide 98 into 483 for .2029.
If you back out Utley’s 33 hr’s from his RBI total, then you divide 71 into 444 for .1599.
So, if you use the .2029 figure, the additonal 39 runners represent 8 additional RBI out of the 42 additional runs Howard drove in. Back out the 15 additional home runs he hit, and you are down to 27 additional RBI.
That is not perfect (but what statistics are?), and could be manipulated in different ways.
Noneteless, it is a better representation of what portion of Howard’s RBI were due to Howard’s effectiveness at driving in runners already on base than simply the 42 that show up in the stat column.
By Braveheart
October 15, 2008 7:07 PM | Link to this
Did anyone see Dead Confederate on Conan the other night? Wasn’t really digging them all that much but it was really cool to hear Conan say “From Athens, Georgia”. Reminded me of those ole Letterman youtube clips you see introducing REM as being from Athens.
By Steve from OH
October 15, 2008 7:08 PM | Link to this
BFIR, that’s what worries me about putting Greene in the lineup. I mean, Jeff’s expected production next season is way up in the air, so I’m not sure if I’d want two sub-.300 OBP guys in the lineup (especially when one is in a corner outfield spot and one is replacing Yuney).
I’m against trading Escobar. I think he’s got future stud written all over him. I dunno, if DOB’s reports are true (I believe they are), I don’t think we’ve got a real shot of getting Peavy. I’ll guess that we’ll have to wait until 2013, lol.
I see Frank signing Lowe, trading for a young starter on the cheap (Edwin Jackson has been bandied about, he’s an option, but not the best one IMO), and making a push for Magglio, who might be had relatively cheaply.
It may not get us to where we need to be in ‘09, but it sets us up nicely for 2010 for several reasons: Huddy will be back (rotation=Huddy, JJ, Lowe, new young guy, Hanson/Morton) and we will probably start seeing some of our top-tier prospects like Hanson and Schafer step in and start producing, with Heyward hot on their heels. In addition, we’ve got a LOT of pitching talent in Danville/Rome who may need another season to “ripen” and increase their value, and I’ll bet that we’ll have a surplus on our hands (after next season), so the ‘09 offseason may be a more opportune time to make a push for Peavy or someone else, if he’s still available—I think that we’ll have more legitimate depth to trade from.
By kirknga
October 15, 2008 7:09 PM | Link to this
It has been very interesting reading all the back and forth about the Braves going after Peavy. But I think some people are starting to let their personal feelings get in the way of good baseball judgment. Some of the same people talking about including Escobar in a trade, are the same folks who were big Escobar critics during the season.
Including Escobar in a trade for Peavy is such a case. There are some that don’t like Escobar. He showed some immaturity along with some welcomed passioned during the season. For this reason, Escobar is not the “type” of player some wish to remain a Brave.
It makes as much sense to trade Escobar as it does to trade. Discussing trading Escobar is different than KJ. Unlike KJ, Escobar in his first year has established that he is one of the top defensive SS’s in the game. No such thing can be said about KJ. Lillbridge is good defensively as is Green, but both are a step down from Escobar.The Braves are in so position to take a step back at any position.
Including Escobar in a trade is a horrible baseball decision and can’t be disguised otherwise by including Green in the scenario.
By McFann Ô
October 15, 2008 7:13 PM | Link to this
BravesFanInRockies The thing that scares me about Khalil is his freakishly low OBP.
That scares me, too…so does his hair.
But other than that…
By mbatl
October 15, 2008 7:16 PM | Link to this
SteveO
I’m against trading Escobar. I think he’s got future stud written all over him.
Why do you think that? Is it his power (15 HR in 833 abs); his speed (7 SB,8 caught stealing); his defense (slightly below league average).
I’m not saying he’s a bad player… he brings a bit of ‘tude to the game, and he does hit the ball hard. I just don’t see anything about him that suggests “stud.”
By Brandon
October 15, 2008 7:22 PM | Link to this
I don’t think Howards rbi and homerun totals should make him the MVP. Remember that Andruw basically did the same thing in 05. He led the league in homers and rbi and carried the Braves that summer when they needed him the most. He still finished 2nd to Pujols that year. It really depends what you think the MVP means. Does it mean who is the most valuable in helping their team win and get to the playoffs. Or is it just the best hitter in the league. To me it should just go to the best hitter and that was Pujols.
By Brandon
October 15, 2008 7:31 PM | Link to this
Why do you think that? Is it his power (15 HR in 833 abs); his speed (7 SB,8 caught stealing); his defense (slightly below league average).
You’re right that as of now he doesn’t project to be a great offensive player. He is above average for his position and average overall but he was the best defensive shortstop in the majors this year.
If the reports are true that the Padres are wanting to push Greene out with Peavy then Escobar would have to be included and I would take that depending what other prospects are sent with him. Greene is above average offensively and does have a career OPS above 800 away from Petco. And with him having one year left on his contract hopefully Lillibridge will be ready to take over full time the next year offensively as he could already been one of the better defensive shortstops in the majors.
By Efrim
October 15, 2008 7:36 PM | Link to this
Steve from OH
Gotta give up talent to get some. If Escobar is our way of keeping Heyward, Hanson, Teheran, Freeman, or Schafer out of the deal, then you make the trade.
By TennesseePaul
October 15, 2008 7:37 PM | Link to this
Brandon: AJ lost because when it counted most to carry the team he hit .203. He had a LaRoche style season. Or, to put it another way, a Kelly Johnson style season. A couple of great months and the rest you gloss over if you are trying to make the argument that he is the best guy at his position. They get the season ending numbers, but how they got them was questionable. Howard piled up numbers similarly. He started slow and then went on a tear. It is strange to hear an argument that he isn’t an MVP candidate but then hear a defense of KJ’s season. At least Howards came on at the most crucial time of the year for the team and put the team over the top in addition to landing him in league leading range in various columns. (not all of course). I also hear talk of Manny getting the MVP. He did have one helluva second half, but I’d disagree with giving it to him. I’m siding with Pujols this year.
By Brandon
October 15, 2008 7:40 PM | Link to this
Meant to say that Green is above average defensively. And I think he would be offensively as well once he gets out of Petco.
By David O'Brien
October 15, 2008 7:44 PM | Link to this
I don’t think Howards rbi and homerun totals should make him the MVP. Remember that Andruw basically did the same thing in 05. He led the league in homers and rbi and carried the Braves that summer when they needed him the most. He still finished 2nd to Pujols that year.Brandon
Well, no. The biggest difference: Andruw had 51 homers and 128 RBI in 2005, when his .207 average with runners in scoring position (38-for-184) ranked fourth-worst in the National League.
Pujols hit .329 (46-for-140) with runners in scoring position that season, with eight more hits in 44 fewer official at-bats with RISP than Andruw had. If Andruw had hit, say, .300 with RISP that season, in 184 at-bats he’d have had 55 hits (instead of his 38) and probably at least 150 RBI, and he’d have won the MVP award going away. He was pretty awful with RISP.
This season, Ryan Howard hit .320 (56-for-175) with runners in scoring position. Note that he had nine fewer at-bats with RISP than Andruw had in 2005, and yet had 18 more hits (and 18 more RBI).
Pujols this season was stellar again with RISP, batting .339 (39-for-115). Yes, that’s one more hit than Andruw had with runners in scoring position in 2005, in a whopping 69 fewer at-bats with RISP.
Did I mention that Andruw was awful with runners in scoring position in 2005?
By Brandon
October 15, 2008 7:50 PM | Link to this
Andruw had 4 great months in 05 and I think he carried the team when it did count the most. And that was when Chipper went down for the summer. Druw stepped in and became the man and was winning games for us it seemed like almost every night. Those games counted just as much as the ones in September do.
But I think it was correct to have Pujols win that year as I think he should this year. This was Pujols either first or second best season of his career. It would be a shame if Howard won the award over him. But that would be nothing new with a Phillie winning the award.
By David O'Brien
October 15, 2008 7:51 PM | Link to this
Oh, and by the way: This season with runners in scoring position, Chase Utley hit .271 (46-for-170) with a .383 OBP and .524 slugging percentage. Solid work, including 22 extra-base hits in those situations.
He hit .242 (16-for-66) with runners in scoring position and two outs, with 14 walks and a .405 OBP.
Howard hit .320 (56-for-175) with RISP (five more official at-bats than Utley in those situations). Howard also had 41 walks for a .439 OBP and .589 slugging percentage with RISP.
And with RISP and two outs, Howard hit .322 (22-for-87) with RISP and two outs, with 23 walks and a .468 OBP.
By Daybed Wagmoe
October 15, 2008 7:52 PM | Link to this
Brandon: I’m of the camp that believes that Andruw should’ve gotten the MVP in ‘05, but Andruw did not do basically the same thing that year as Howard did this year. The big reason Andruw didn’t get the MVP? His average with Runners In Scoring Position (RISP).
Andruw 2005 avg. w/ RISP: .207 (Pujols’ was .329)
Howard 2008 avg. w/ RISP: .320
Andruw’s RBI total was certainly high (128), but imagine how much higher it would’ve been if his RISP average was higher — even if it was .250 (which is still rather mediocre), that’s another 10-15 rbi. But that’s detracting from my point, which is that what Andruw did in ‘05 and what Howard did this year are far from being “basically the same thing.”
I’d also disagree with you that the MVP should be the best hitter — that’s what the Hank Aaron Award is.
I was also previously of the mindset that Pujols should get MVP this year because he didn’t have the support on his team that Howard did (especially Utley, Burrell, Rollins), but then I just looked it up and realized that’s not necessarily an accurate statement. Pujols, after all, had Troy Glaus, Ryan Ludwick and Rick Ankiel, who all had over 25 homers. In my eyes, that’s not far from Howards’ teammates of Utley, Burrell, Rollins and Werth. If I had time right now to punch in the numbers I’d find out those players’ totals for HR, RBI and average, but I don’t…perhaps later.
By TennesseePaul
October 15, 2008 7:53 PM | Link to this
OK, so maybe it was .207. But that doesn’t really help his cause.
By A.S.
October 15, 2008 7:54 PM | Link to this
D.O.B. if the Braves have the opportunity to trade for Peavy they must make it happen!
Trading for Peavy is completely different than trading for a J.D. Drew or Mark Teixeira. Both of those players were soon-to-be free agents. Peavy on the other hand is signed long-term to a market value contract and the Braves have room to afford him.
Now, many fans would be upset if we traded one of our big three prospects such as Hanson. But realisticly the only way the Pad’s will trade Peavy is if they get the right offer. They have no reason to just throw him on the street for a Casey Kotchman (wink wink Mark Teixeira trade). But what it comes down to is I think Braves fan would be happier trading away a prospect and a KJ, (insert name here). for Peavy. Why?
*”Peavy, who could be the answer to the Braves’ “ace”…” You said it yourself in the article. If the Bravos get Peavy they get their ace right away and could be immediate contenders with the signing or trade of a SP and power outfielder. *
p.s. does the Andy Marte trade rings any bells to anyone? I think there is going to a VH1 show, “Where they are now.”
By Daybed Wagmoe
October 15, 2008 7:56 PM | Link to this
DOB — just saw your post re Andruw’s poor 2005 RISP after I submitted my last post, so I wasn’t knowingly saying the same thing you were.
By McFann Ô
October 15, 2008 7:56 PM | Link to this
Aw, man! Bill Bowers passed away! He was the Braves PA announcer from 1997-2006.
Loved the way he said Juuuu-lio Franco! His Andres Galarraga was good, too.
RIP
By Brandon
October 15, 2008 7:57 PM | Link to this
So because Howard hit well with RISP and Andruw didn’t it should make Howard the MVP even though Pujols still had a better year?
What about late and close stats? Andruw did really well there in 2005 when he hit 270 with a 1000+ OPS. What did Howard do this year? 158 avg with a 643 OPS.
I’m not a huge fan of the rbi stat since it is so team dependent. But Andruw hit his best when the game was on the line late in ball games in 05.
But that still doesn’t matter. Pujols had a better season than Andruw then and a better season than Howard this year.
By StingerSplash
October 15, 2008 8:00 PM | Link to this
Just finished watching the pregame ceremonies for the Montreal Canadiens’ 100th anniversary home opener . Getting a little dusty in here, no? Now, that’s an organization that just exudes class, no question about it. Back to baseball … Phillies win tonight, Rays win in 6, Phils win World Series in 6. Rollins is World Series MVP. Howard will get NL MVP with two-thirds of the first-place votes. And you can take all those stats of him vs. Utley and vs. Mighty Joe Young for all I care. When his team needed him to be a bad axx, he was a bad axx and the biggest and baddest of them all. Some things you can’t measure - for example, Gibson in 1988 and Pendleton in 91, even though TP was the batting champ. And it wasn’t just that Chipper hit 40-plus homers in 99, he hit them when his team needed them the most down the stretch, particularly against the Mets. (as a corollary, Delgado’s second-half renaissance was startling and he kept the Mets in it, but their collapse certainly couldn’t be pinned on him). I like Utley as a player a lot, but Howard’s presence in that lineup affects so many things. There’s already an award for best hitter. MVP means most valuable and not most valuable over replacement player player award.
By ncscoots
October 15, 2008 8:00 PM | Link to this
Folks, I love the idea of securing Peavy, evidenced by conversations on the subject before it became the rage of the blog. But, if part of the cost is going from Escobar to Khalil Greene To Brent Lillibridge at SS…people, that reads to me like no roadmap to championships.
Sorry. I can’t get behind that, even for Peavy and a Clemson boy. That would be a huge step back for the Braves offensively and defensively, IMO, and the team might recover from it, oh, right about the time Peavy’s contract is up.
By Brandon
October 15, 2008 8:05 PM | Link to this
Yes Howard season this year and Andruws season in 05 mirror each other. Just because one hit well with RISP and the other didn’t does not change that. As I said one hit well with the game on the line (Andruw) and the other didn’t (Howard).
Both led their teams to the playoffs and led the league in homers and rbi. They still had inferior seasons to Pujols. As for the Hank Aaron award being reward to the best hitter. If you want to look at it that was you can. But that award was created just a few years ago. The MVP in mind should always go to the best hitter since I think if you are the best hitter then you would be the most valuable to any team.
By David O'Brien
October 15, 2008 8:06 PM | Link to this
Brandon, yes RBI are dependant on team: But as established by the recitation of statistics, Andruw’s TEAM did more than its share to boost his RBI total in 2005: The dude had more opportunities with RISP than almost anyone in baseball. What he does with those opportunities is, for the most part, entirely up to him (unless he’s drawing ungodly amounts of walks and not being pitched to, say like a Barry Bonds; that wasn’t the case with Andruw. Dude, he just wasn’t good with RISP).
And I didn’t say Howard should get the MVP over Pujols. I said I’d vote them 1-2 in some order, and would probably vote for Pujols, who did have the better year (he couldn’t help it that his team didn’t go to the postseason; he did his part and then some).
I was merely refuting your argument that Andruw did “basically the same thing” as Howard did this season. No, he didn’t. If he had, if he’d hit like Howard did with RISP, Andruw would’ve had more than 150 RBI and the MVP award.
But again, I said I’d probably vote for Pujols — if I could vote, which I can’t because of our paper’s rule about that.
By NickC
October 15, 2008 8:09 PM | Link to this
Ken Rosenthal mentioned today that Lowe has said he doesn’t want to play for the Mets or Yankees. Maybe a bit third hand information, but encouraging nonetheless.
By Brandon
October 15, 2008 8:10 PM | Link to this
nscoots, check out Greene’s numbers away from Petco. Outside of this year they are really good. I think getting away from Petco will help his numbers out tremendously. And Greene is above average defensively as is Lillibridge.
But giving up Escobar to get to Peavy definately leads to championships as pitching is the name of the game. And there are few better than Peavy.
By Efrim
October 15, 2008 8:12 PM | Link to this
A.S
p.s. does the Andy Marte trade rings any bells to anyone? I think there is going to a VH1 show, “Where they are now.”
The thing is, you can’t just continue to deal these top prospects. Sooner or later you are going to deal the wrong one(s). Not all of them are going to flame out like Andy Marte. I’m not saying the Braves should sit on their prospects and put all of their faith into them. But you really have to be patient. The things I hear about Neftali Feliz….. it sucks man. I still like the Tex trade, they went for it, and I would of done the same. But again, you can’t just continue to deal these top prospects and gut the farm system. Credit the Braves for getting things back in order so quickly.
But now that the Draft and Follow system is through, and players in the June draft are getting more money than ever. So maybe it won’t be as easy to rebound from these prospect crazy trades. If they were to do so. But like DOB said, that probably isn’t going ot happen. So….good.
Anyway, that being said, I would be willing to give up Escobar, and three guys out of the Jones/Flowers/Hernandez/Locke/Rohrbough/Hicks/Cody Johnson group.
Yes, a lot. But you are keeping Schafer, Heyward, Freeman, Teheran and Hanson.
Wasn’t that the idea here?
By THB
October 15, 2008 8:12 PM | Link to this
mbatl-I don’t know why you think Escobar is below average defensively. He’s actually considered the best defensive SS in the bigs. Plus he’s a solid hitter who is only going to get better.
By kirknga
October 15, 2008 8:13 PM | Link to this
Why do you think that? Is it his power (15 HR in 833 abs); his speed (7 SB,8 caught stealing); his defense (slightly below league average).
So Green with 5 SB’s is a better choice? Green with his .213 BA is a better choice? True there is a slight power advantage, but we only have one full season from Escobar, but I see no reason why he can’t go from 10 to maybe 15 HR’s which is ok given his defense which is not below average in the opinion of some.
Again, trading Escobar with Green included in the return is a bad baseball decision not only from a talent standpoint but also it would eat into the pool of money available to improve the team.
Green has negative implications on payroll.Green also costs $6.5 million next year and is then a FA. Escobar isn’t going to cost that much for several more seasons.
By Steve from OH
October 15, 2008 8:15 PM | Link to this
mbatl, I say that because not only is he an good (I’ll leave it at good and not great because I don’t want to see fielding % cited, lol) defender with a great arm (I disagree with you there, I think he is way better than “below-average”), but he projects to have above-average power as a SS. Keep in mind that he played quite a bit of this season with some nagging injuries that may have hampered his power (as evidenced by his SLG of .401. It was .451 last year). His OBP’s for the last two years were .385 and .366. That’s pretty doggone good for anyone, much less a young kid straight out of the minors. He’s got nowhere to go but up. I daresay you’ll see the power numbers go up as he matures.
I agree with kirknga…it’s not a good baseball decision to give up someone under (cheap) contract for the next 5 years who is already pretty darn good and has the potential to move to a whole ‘nother level.
Efrim: Dude, I agree with you. I know we have to give up good players, but I’m saying that I don’t know which good players we have to give up based on FW’s comments.
By Brandon
October 15, 2008 8:19 PM | Link to this
Fair enough Dave. And your right that if Andruw hit like Howard did with RISP this year he would of won the MVP. He would of had one of the best years offensively seen quite some time minus the Bonds seasons.
Howard this year hit as well with RISP that Andruw did without anyone on. And vice versa with Andruw hitting with RISP and Howard without anyone on. And overall the ended up with similar stats. They got their numbers in different ways but they were similar. Both led their teams to the playoffs as well. And I think Howard should finish 2nd just like Andruw did.
By Efrim
October 15, 2008 8:20 PM | Link to this
Little different perspective. Padres Blog. The post at the top is a good read. Gives you a different take on this stuff. A look from the team that is going to trade the face of their franchise:
http://www.gaslampball.com/
Apparently they want pitching, pitching, pitching.
By Brandon
October 15, 2008 8:24 PM | Link to this
*Again, trading Escobar with Green included in the return is a bad baseball decision not only from a talent standpoint but also it would eat into the pool of money available to improve the team.
Green has negative implications on payroll.Green also costs $6.5 million next year and is then a FA. Escobar isn’t going to cost that much for several more seasons.*
I don’t think it’s a bad decision if it means we could keep one more top prospect by taking on Greene. As you said he is a FA and then we are done with him. If it means getting Peavy here then you do it. He’s an ace and shut be acquired at all costs unless it totally guts the farm which I don’t think will happen.
By TennesseePaul
October 15, 2008 8:25 PM | Link to this
Well I wouldn’t expect any trade for quality to be made without giving up some form of quality so the inclusion of Escobar wouldn’t shock me. But the return of Greene… I don’t know if I can trust a man named Thabit. It’s just not natural. Sure it’s an Egyptian name meaning strong, but it rhymes to well with “Rabit”
By Efrim
October 15, 2008 8:27 PM | Link to this
Steve from OH
I believe FW that we won’t trade our elite prospects. Elite as in Heyward, Teheran, Hanson, Shafer and Freeman. For Jake Peavy, everyone else is probably up for grabs.
By ncscoots
October 15, 2008 8:37 PM | Link to this
Brandon, no offense, but did you just finish “101 Baseball Cliches”? Pitching does not “win” anything. Good pitching prevents losing a game, but only good offense begets winning a game. Big difference in the two.
Regardless of any park-adjusted spin on Greene (and Small Bridge, at least today, isn’t worth the spin on a toy top), he doesn’t project to help the Braves as much as Escobar, on either side of the ball. In 2009 or beyond.
And, Efrim, how exactly does it help the Braves to trade a player with high upside who has ML experience to save a prospect who is still unproven? I don’t see how you reconcile an Escobar trade with the notion that you can’t keep trading away prospects. That just doesn’t compute for me.
By ccrider
October 15, 2008 8:40 PM | Link to this
Just a Few Comments: I would love to have Peavy here and I think it is possible without including Hanson, Schafer, Heyward and Freeman. I have no problem sending Kelly Johnson or Prado, Escobar and any other prospects within reason to make this happen. Trading Hanson, who I believe may become a future Peavy, Heyward , who may become a future Chipper or Schafer, Who I think has the package to be an All Star CF makes no sense and are the type players that you build around not trade. Freeman will not be seriously discussed because of A. Gonzalez. The Braves have a combination of major league players: Kelly, Prado, Escobar as well as high end minor leaguers: Gorky, Flowers, Hicks, T. Jones, E. Campbell, C. Johnson as well as tons of potential Quality starters, Redmond, Morton, Rohrborough, Diamond and the list goes much deeper. The Padres may very well try to get an unreasonable return on him or another team(Cardinals) may be willing to give up their very top prospects to make it happen. We can’t control these events, but what we can do is look to another possibility. The Marlins may due to payroll be willing to part with Josh Johnson or Ricky Nolasco, the Rays may be willing to part with Edwin Jackson, Andy Sonnanstine, one of the many high end minor league starters they have no room for and possibly because of rising arbitation costs and escalating contracts Scott Kazmir might be had. If, the Braves can’t acquire Peavy , Kazmir, Greinke or another top starter, then lets try to build a young inexpensive staff that could compete. Jurjjens, Johnson, Kazmir , Hanson would be the beginning of another 1990’s dominating staff. Signing overpriced free agents with injury questions may no be the most effective use of our trading chips!
By kirknga
October 15, 2008 8:47 PM | Link to this
I don’t think it’s a bad decision if it means we could keep one more top prospect by taking on Greene
Again, the better baseball decision would be to allocate that $6million to filling needs like finding another starter(we need two not just one) and fixing the outfield.
Keeping another prospect isn’t going to do much to improve the team on the field.
By Brandon
October 15, 2008 8:49 PM | Link to this
nscoots, yes you need good pitching, good defense, and good offense. And I would agree that Escobar helps the Braves out more than Greene or Lillibridge would. But Peavy would help the Braves a lot more than what Escobar would do.
If the Braves trade for Peavy they are going to likely have to go up someone on the major league roster. The most likely to be traded would be Kelly or Escobar. With the Padres looking to move Greene I would think they would want Escobar back.
I honestly don’t see why someone would be opposed to giving up Escobar if Peavy was coming back. Yes we would lose something at short but we gain a ton at the starting pitching position which is something we are hurting in a lot.
By Steve from OH
October 15, 2008 8:51 PM | Link to this
Efrim, I went over to that Padres site and I saw a guy suggest that they recieve “JoJo Reyes, Jordan Schafer, and Gorkys Hernandez” for Peavy, and I about fell off my chair. If that’s all it takes, substitute another prospect or two for Schafer and GET IT DONE Frank Wren, lol.
No, seriously, we can get it done, but I am afraid to see what it would take. I daresay it would probably damage our club more than one Jake Peavy would help it. Unless they’re hell-bent on getting rid of his contract, I can’t see us getting a favorable deal.
By Steve from OH
October 15, 2008 9:02 PM | Link to this
When we start talking about giving up Escobar and lower-level prospects to get Peavy, or a bunch of high-level guys, it is a tough balancing act. I think trading Escobar significantly hurts our team. With Peavy, we still come out on top, IMO, but with a lesser benefit (are you following me, or am I just rambling?). I dunno, I just don’t think it’s a deal we can do…
Scoots, sure, some prospects may be unproven, but every good player in the MLB today started out as a prospect…some are just better bets than others. I’m not giving up Heyward for anything. I think he’s as sure of a bet as we’ve got in our system. Plus, we’re talking about cheap players when they reach the bigs, as opposed to a potentially bigger contract in a more seasoned vet.
ccrider, while I agreed with most of your post, I can’t see us getting Kazmir any more cheaply than we can get Peavy. I also wouldn’t call Hanson the second-coming of Peavy, but I do think that he can be a strong ML number 2 guy. If Morton re-bounds and has a strong season next year, then we’ve already got a strong future core with Hanson, Morton and Jurrjens. Add in Hudson, and all we need is to pick up one more guy….I know, I’m being really glass half full right now.
By Brandon
October 15, 2008 9:10 PM | Link to this
**Again, the better baseball decision would be to allocate that $6million to filling needs like finding another starter(we need two not just one) and fixing the outfield.
Keeping another prospect isn’t going to do much to improve the team on the field**
If Greene had a long term contract I would agree. But with it being one year it’s off the books and you would have that money to spend on whatever you wanted going into 2010.
In all honestly we probably aren’t going to be a great team in 2009 unless we make a lot of dramatic moves and spend all of the money. It is certainly possible but I just don’t see it. We should build for 2010 when Hudson comes back and landing Peavy while keeping as many top prospects as possible would be the way to go.
And I don’t see the problem with Lillibridge replacing Escobar at some point anyways. Yes right now we would lose quite a bit offensively. But defensively they are both very good. We should make up the offense by getting a better outfield.
By Wayne
October 15, 2008 9:14 PM | Link to this
Gotta disagree with some of my friends here. While I LOVE Escobar’s game, and I think he has potential to become more of an offensive force, he is NOT the equivalent to a Peavy. Peavy is one of the top 5 starters in baseball, and is only 27 years old.
Dude wants to be a Brave, and he has a fair market contract. AND, he is only 27 years old.
(Coach, if he blows out the elbow, then I could live with one less year of Peavy.) Most great pitchers return to there previous form within a year or so of having major elbow surgery.
Escobar is the 4th best shortstop in our division, and while he is one of the top 10 in baseball, we potentially have a chance to get a top 5 shut-down starter.
Escobar is never going to have that sort of value.
If we could get the deal done without him, then I am all for it, but no way, if I am Kevin Towers do I not get Escobar or one of Hanson/Heyward.
Personally, Escobar is less valuable to me than those two.
McFann Just because McCann likes Bennett’s barbering, doesn’t mean we want to subject Greene to the same fate!
:-)
By Ignorance is da Bomb
October 15, 2008 9:17 PM | Link to this
This is strictly baseball talk and you try to come on here thinking you can prove someone wrong about geography…On to bigger things
P-Town
oh yeah bigger things. baseball trades are so much more important than having some knowledge about your native country. Typical ignorant disinterest in knowledge that is sending this great country straight to h3ll. Too ignorant to know anything and too stupid to care. You da bomb youngin.
By David O'Brien
October 15, 2008 9:18 PM | Link to this
Steve, the importance of a true ace to a staff should never be underestimated. The Braves won for so long primarily because of multiple aces in their rotation. As it stands now, they have none, save for possibly Jurrjens.
Getting Peavy would be a huge step in the right direction, and then if you could add one other legit top-half-of-the-rotation type of guy as well, you’re looking at a top of the rotation that includes Peavy, Jurrjens, and another proven winner, and you’ve got a team that can compete for a postseason berth.
Peavy’s contract is very reasonable for next couple years, and would allow you to pay another $10 mill-a-year (or more) salary to another pitcher in that span, as well.
By McFann Ô
October 15, 2008 9:21 PM | Link to this
Wayne—
LOL. Good point. : )
I bet it’s grown back by now…
Man! The Dodgers just intentionally walked Victorino with runners on second and third w/2 outs. What? Are they afraid?
DON’T FEAR THE REAPER!!
Actually, do fear him. He cann hurt you…literally…
By A.S.
October 15, 2008 9:24 PM | Link to this
Here would be my proposal.
KJ - Pads need a MI, and he can hit very well in Petco Park. Hanson - TRADING 411: rule 1: You gotta dish out talent to get talent. Gorsky - the Braves have a surplus of OF’s with Heyward, Schaffer, Anderson.. The Pad’s are looking to acquire a good OF and Gorky’s could deliver. Lillibridge - Khali Greene has underperformed for the Pad’s and is not the SS they were expecting. Lillibridge is a shaky player that was once regarded as one of the better prospects but didn’t play well in Atlanta this year.
By A.S.
October 15, 2008 9:24 PM | Link to this
Here would be my proposal.
KJ - Pads need a MI, and he can hit very well in Petco Park. Hanson - TRADING 411: rule 1: You gotta dish out talent to get talent. Gorsky - the Braves have a surplus of OF’s with Heyward, Schaffer, Anderson.. The Pad’s are looking to acquire a good OF and Gorky’s could deliver. Lillibridge - Khali Greene has underperformed for the Pad’s and is not the SS they were expecting. Lillibridge is a shaky player that was once regarded as one of the better prospects but didn’t play well in Atlanta this year.
By Wayne
October 15, 2008 9:26 PM | Link to this
Steve Too many times have I seen teams win it all on the back of one or two top rotation guys. Peavy is that sort of guy. Imagine our 2010 with Peavy, Hudson, Jurrjens, Hanson and Morton! (just noticed they are all right handed… will probably have to trade Boras’ guy for a good lefty.. only half kidding!)
Personally, I think Escobar will end up being a 300 15 80 guy. I can’t imagine him being much better than KJ long term. Who would you trade Escobar for, if not Peavy?
To be honest, if the Padres do not bite, I would offer that same deal to the Giants for Cain.
I think some are getting to wrapped up in the salary picture. I don’t see it being a negative.
The Jays would probably deal Halladay for Escobar and other prospects, but I am less certain about that deal, due to his age. Same with Oswalt.
I also like Lowe, but I don’t think he is realistic. I expect someone like Garland, Penny or Wolf.
Come on Dodgers!!! (that is hard for me to say.)
By McFann Ô
October 15, 2008 9:27 PM | Link to this
Heck, it worked. Inning over.
But those dang Fillies are winning 3-zip.
Note to Rays: Do NOT play like the Dodgers.
This series is over, folks. For once I’m glad the debate is on—now I won’t have any chance of being subjected to the Fillies’ celebration.
By f.n. hale
October 15, 2008 9:29 PM | Link to this
DOB, sorry for bringing up the Howard/Utley argument last night. I don’t come here often when I’m busy at work and didn’t realize it had been discussed previously. I kinda thought you responded pretty strongly to my questioning your comment that Howard would be 1 or 2, and now I understand why. I happen to agree with Shaun on this, and there was a time in my life when it would have been important to try to sell you and Lew and the others that you were wrong, but I’ve mellowed in my old age and it really doesn’t matter that much. I believe in my heart, that I’m right on this, but hell, I’ve been wrong before.
SHAUN - I really admire your passion, but you’re only frustrating yourself, man. They are obviously not unintelligent or uninformed so as i see it, they either: a) don’t buy the logic (likely), b) don’t care (unlikely) or c) they’re just f.n. with you (also likely) and I think they’re pretty well commited to whichever.
By Efrim
October 15, 2008 9:29 PM | Link to this
ncscoots
And, Efrim, how exactly does it help the Braves to trade a player with high upside who has ML experience to save a prospect who is still unproven? I don’t see how you reconcile an Escobar trade with the notion that you can’t keep trading away prospects. That just doesn’t compute for me.
If Escobar keeps us from trading say, Schafer and Hanson, or Hanson and Heyward, then I would probably be for it. I guess Heyward doesn’t have a chance to be as good as Escobar. It is very possible. Prospects are never a given.
Listen man, when it comes down to it, it might not make sense for the Braves to trade for Jake Peavy. Not if they have to give up a Dan Haren type haul. Which included Carlos Gonzalez and Brett Anderson, their top two prospects at the time.
If you are for trading all of them(or even 2 or 3 of them), while keeping major leaguers like Escobar and Johnson just because they are proven, then yes, we disagree. Because I like Heyward that much. Haven’t had a prospect like him since Chipper. Marte doesn’t come close to him. I like Escobar, a lot, but I don’t like him enough to trade a ton of prospects for Peavy. And I am 99% sure that a package that DOES NOT include Johnson, Escobar, Hanson, Schafer, Heyward, Freeman, and Teheran will NOT get it done.
By ncscoots
October 15, 2008 9:32 PM | Link to this
Steve-OH, I don’t disagree with you about Heyward, far from it. He’s as close to a sure thing as a prospect can be. But still a bet. Still a “maybe”. Miles to go before he sleeps, and all that. A guy such as Escobar has already taken the big step. Turned potential into performance. A big chip at the table for a player who does that.
I’ve been watching (and admiring) the kid since A ball, so I freely admit I could be wedded to the idea that he is a star in the making. But to those for whom “trade Escobar” rolls trippingly off the tongue, I retort, “Not no, but hell no.” He’s the type of player that should be a building block, not a trade piece. I boggle at the notion that anyone who has watched him play would think differently.
As for the idea that Lillibridge and Escobar are interchangeable, Brandon, I’m just gonna let that go. That leaves you and me no room for discourse, whatsoever, LOL.
By Efrim
October 15, 2008 9:32 PM | Link to this
Steve from OH
I’m not giving up Heyward for anything.
Couldn’t agree more. Of course, if Grady Sizemore were to become available…..haha. But seriously, Heyward is elite. Need to keep him.
By Steve from OH
October 15, 2008 9:40 PM | Link to this
DOB, no doubt. Peavy improves our team immensely, but look at it from an absolute best (or worse) case point of view: say we give up Escobar, Hanson, Hernandez, and a low-level pitcher (which is what it would probably take from the Pads’ perspective). Let’s say Escobar realizes his potential, Hanson becomes a #2, Gorkys becomes a good (not great) CF and the low-level guy becomes a #5, is all of that worth one Jake Peavy? To me, no.
Granted, that scenario is absolutely chock-full of “if’s.” Probably wouldn’t happen. But I think that our best years lie with the arrival of the “untouchable” group FW described coupled with the maturation of guys like Yunel, KJ, Morton, and even (gasp) Francoeur (being really half-full right now). I’m not willing to give that up for one Peavy right now, I’m just not.
But don’t get me wrong, I totally, completely, 100% agree with you that getting JP is a step in the right direction. Not trying to underestimate the impact of an ace in the slightest. If everything goes right this offseason, I think we can make it to the postseason next year, I really do. But I’m afraid to think what it would take to get Peavy…I think in the long term it would damage the team. If Frank Wren can balance these two points of view, and work out a deal that does so (no one is more capable of doing it than FW, IMO), then it is a fantastic turn of events for the Braves.
But the kicker is that Peavy is under contract until 2013, and probably more with a new contract. Gotta like that. Just a really tough balance to make. We also have a lot of pitching depth in Danville and Rome, so I’m sure Frank Wren has a great grasp on this, so if those guys turn out, my whole point might be moot. Just too tough to tell from an armchair GM perspective.
By mbatl
October 15, 2008 9:42 PM | Link to this
‘scoots, no sarcasm meant, but in what respect do you think Yunel will be a “star?”. Home runs? Stolen bases? Defense?
I really don’t mean to rail on the guy (he’s a very good everyday SS), but I just can’t find star quality there.
By Steve from OH
October 15, 2008 9:45 PM | Link to this
Scoots, don’t get me wrong, I don’t want to trade Esco either. That’s why I don’t think this deal will get done.
By ncscoots
October 15, 2008 9:51 PM | Link to this
Efrim, hang on, buddy, I’m not advocating a trade of Heyward. I honestly don’t have a clue as to what the Padres might really, truly take in a Peavy trade. But Escobar isn’t some run-of-the-mill league-average dime-a-dozen SS. That’s my story, and I’m stickin’ to it, LOL. You can’t trade that guy. As much as I think of Kelly, I’d help him pack, if he and Escobar were my only two choices.
By McFann Ô
October 15, 2008 9:57 PM | Link to this
Dang, another iBB for the Reaper.
Bases loaded with two outs…Fills up 4-0 in the fifth…here’s Ruiz…
By Brandon
October 15, 2008 9:57 PM | Link to this
ncscoots, they are interchangeable defensively. Lillibridge would be one of the best defensive shortstops in the majors. Offensively he is nowhere close to Escobar right now. We would be losing quite a bit right with that move. However I would be fine with that with Peavy in the rotation I would think most people would as well.
By cabravesfan
October 15, 2008 10:02 PM | Link to this
Nice D by Furcal tonight…
By McFann Ô
October 15, 2008 10:02 PM | Link to this
Single…5-0.
Dude…Furcal made two errors on one play! He booted the ball allowing Burrell to reach, then he overthrew or something to allow Howard to get to third!
Ha! Hamels got out. Inning over.
By Efrim
October 15, 2008 10:04 PM | Link to this
ncscoots
I agree on Escobar, really like the guy. But someone is going to go to the Padres in this trade. Probably several players. Not sure if we will like all of the guys that we give up. Only time will tell. Like DOB named the blog, lets get this postseason over with and start talking shop. Should be an exciting offseason.
By Shaun
October 15, 2008 10:17 PM | Link to this
It’s funny Lew is still going with the name-calling. Maybe I’m overboard with the attempt to provide the evidence that shows that Howard isn’t even the most valuable Philly much less the NL MVP but I haven’t made fun of anyone or called anyone a name.
DOB, the reason I’m not content with my firm belief that Howard is not the most valuable Philly is because I believe it very strongly. And I can’t let go of something that I firmly believe is very correct especially when the opposite belief which I believe is incorrect may mean that a guy not even the most valuable player on his own team may win the league MVP.
Again, I challenge anyone to refute the fact that Utley was the better hitter, fielder and baserunner in 2008. I don’t think anyone can or would. Therefore, Utley was more valuable, unless somehow a better hitter, fielder and baserunner is less valuable than the inferior hitter, fielder and baserunner. I suppose what a player does in the final two months matters more than what a player does through the entire season. I suppose HR and RBI matter more than a player’s overall contributions.
Hopefully the MVP voters realize what many people who actually pay attention to the overall evidence as opposed to just looking at the final two or three months of the season or just one dimension of one side of the game (namely power) see.
I don’t think I’m more enlightened than anyone. I don’t have a PhD or anything like that. I’m not a math whiz. I’m not a scientist. I’m just a regular schmo that can see the evidence that everyone else can see—who makes outs less often than others, who gains more bases, who plays better defense, who is the better baserunner. Again, the name calling and criticism that I am some arrogant guy who thinks I’m more enlightened is just a way to dance around the fact and avoid providing any solid evidence that the NL MVP could possibly be someone who isn’t even the most valuable player on his own team.
By richbrave
October 15, 2008 10:17 PM | Link to this
nolie:
O.K. then. I hope HAMPTON gets a huge raise and takes a hike. Neither party owns either side anything. It’s just business.
Time to cut ties to yesterday and start business for the present and future. GLAVINE - unsigned. SMOLTZ - the exception.
Do what WREN outlined to begin with. Offer MIKE H. a reasonable contract, get two arms, established IF possible, a #5 hitter for CF, and a GOOD BUC to provide relief for McCANN - someone who’s not an automatic out at the plate and doesn’t make lots of errors defensively. ESTRADA, BARRETT, or others mentioned here from time to time.
Don’t split hairs about who’s expendable on the farm. Put the top ten farm-hands off-limits, primarily our young pitchers plus HEYWARD, SCHAFER, and FREEMAN at least.
Offer current players on the 40 man in trade where needed. Otherwise, just draft and let the farm continue to develop. Grind out the low finishes for another year or two until the talent develops into HOPEFULLY, effective ML players.
By McFann Ô
October 15, 2008 10:26 PM | Link to this
cabravesfan Nice D by Furcal tonight…
Yeah, really…
Richbrave and a GOOD BUC to provide relief for McCANN - someone who’s not an automatic out at the plate and doesn’t make lots of errors defensively.
Oh yes.
Gotta split…In case I don’t come back till tomorrow,
Night, all!
By mbatl
October 15, 2008 10:26 PM | Link to this
Pat Burrell, Defensive Specialist, Future Brave.
By keylargo
October 15, 2008 10:29 PM | Link to this
Manny Ramirez goes deep.
You have to give it too the Dodgers crowd. They are still in the game despite being down 5 - 1. ManRam has at least one more ab for the Dodgers.
By McFann Ô
October 15, 2008 10:40 PM | Link to this
Aw, crud. Base hit for the Reaper. 5-1…stupid Fillies…
Man! I hope the Rays cann whop their sorry butts. I’m so sicka the Fillies!!
I’m goin’ for real, now, folks.
Night, all!
By Shaun
October 15, 2008 10:41 PM | Link to this
There’s an excellent article here about value.
By kirknga
October 15, 2008 10:49 PM | Link to this
I have a question for those who would trade Escobar.
Would you trade McCann for Peavy? If you believe in Peavy that strongly, are you willing to trade someone you like, someone you’ve been attached to for several seasons? How badly do you want Peavy?
(McFann, it’s just a question on my part, not a suggestion)
If the Padres said McCann , 1 top-level pitching prospect, and one mid-level pitching prospect, would you make that trade?
This would follow the reasoning that sure you yeah you give up something now, “but you gain so much pitching”.
By cabravesfan
October 15, 2008 10:56 PM | Link to this
If the Padres said McCann , 1 top-level pitching prospect, and one mid-level pitching prospect, would you make that trade?
Not even if the padres said they would pay peavy’s salary (which is about as likely as the braves even thinking about trading Mac)
By mbatl
October 15, 2008 10:59 PM | Link to this
If the Padres said McCann , 1 top-level pitching prospect, and one mid-level pitching prospect, would you make that trade?
No.
By Lew
October 15, 2008 10:59 PM | Link to this
Keeps going and going and going……
By Roman Gal
October 15, 2008 11:08 PM | Link to this
kirgnga That’s completely different. McCann is a 3-time All-Star and one of the top 5 at his position in all of baseball.
I don’t think trading Escobar is a good idea at all, but trading McCann is just ridiculous.
By keylargo
October 15, 2008 11:10 PM | Link to this
Kirknga
I bet you thought McFann would never go to bed so you could ask that question! 8)
By Josh
October 15, 2008 11:11 PM | Link to this
kirknga I wouldn’t do that deal. I don’t think I would do McCann for Peavy straight-up; not because Peavy isn’t worth it, but because the Braves don’t have the financial resources to make up for McCann’s production and take on Peavy + another starter, even if it was at another position.
By David O'Brien
October 15, 2008 11:12 PM | Link to this
Say what you will about him being an annoyance, but you folks have to admit you’d like to have Shane Victorino on your team, wouldn’t you?…
By the way, scratch Markakis off the wish list. From what I’m hearing, there’s no way the Orioles would trade him. Young, good and cheap is just what they need, and I hadn’t even thought of this before, but it was pointed out that he’s Greek and played on the Greek Olympic team. Another prominent Greek in baseball? Peter Angelos.
By Steve from OH
October 15, 2008 11:15 PM | Link to this
Shaun, that was an excellent article, but I think it’s time to give it a rest. I agree with you, some don’t, let’s move on. I think that you have made an excellent point and have done it clearly and succinctly. Sidebar: I hope that everyone would read that article. Maybe we could discuss that, and not Howard vs. Utley vs. Lidge vs. the batboy?
This whole debate remids me of the opening scene from Wayne’s World where the guy demonstrates the “suck-cut”…let me just quote the great Garth Algar: “It’s sucking my will to live!”
Soooo….how about those Rays?
By Steve from OH
October 15, 2008 11:21 PM | Link to this
Shaun, I hope that you will continue to give your well-reasoned input on other matters, btw.
By Efrim
October 15, 2008 11:29 PM | Link to this
DOB
Yea, I can’t imagine the O’s ever wanting to deal Markakis. Guy just came off a 306/406/491(.897 OPS) season at age 24. Serious talent. I’d love to have him, but it would take some package.
By Wayne
October 15, 2008 11:34 PM | Link to this
Steve I guess we are left to being Rays fans for the classic.
Lots of good dialogue on the Peavy situation. Right or wrong, we all have our opinions on who is replaceable and who is not.
Without a doubt, Peavy would make us (if not immediately, then in 2010) a definite threat to go deep into October.
For sure, Escobar is a solid to outstanding SS for probably the next 10 years. I love his game and spunk. Would LOVE to keep him, but I would prefer to trade him than Hanson or Heyward. I truly think with Heyward we have a shot at our Chipper hitting replacement.
With Hanson, he could be a flop, or a top of the rotation guy.
I think it would be awesome to get the Peavy (or Cain, I keep plugging this kid, don’t I?) deal done SOON, so we can get to speculating on the next pitcher and the thumper for the outfield. I still like Garland or Wolf and Mags.
If Escobar is dealt, I would love to see Lillibridge given every opportunity to win the SS job next year. If we took Greene back in a deal, he would be there as a SS or 3B backup, or a mentor for Lilly! Lillibridge at times looks totally lost at the plate and in the field, but at other times he looks like the real deal.
And I would not be afraid of having Frenchy and Greene in the lineup together.
Folks, it has been a long day, and I am turning in.
Nite all!
By kirknga
October 15, 2008 11:35 PM | Link to this
Well what’s the difference in your mind between McCann and Escobar those who are saying “no” to trading McCann?
I’m trying to get an idea of why you would trade one young player who will fill a position for the long-term, but not another?
By Wayne
October 15, 2008 11:35 PM | Link to this
Steve I guess we are left to being Rays fans for the classic.
Lots of good dialogue on the Peavy situation. Right or wrong, we all have our opinions on who is replaceable and who is not.
Without a doubt, Peavy would make us (if not immediately, then in 2010) a definite threat to go deep into October.
For sure, Escobar is a solid to outstanding SS for probably the next 10 years. I love his game and spunk. Would LOVE to keep him, but I would prefer to trade him than Hanson or Heyward. I truly think with Heyward we have a shot at our Chipper hitting replacement.
With Hanson, he could be a flop, or a top of the rotation guy.
I think it would be awesome to get the Peavy (or Cain, I keep plugging this kid, don’t I?) deal done SOON, so we can get to speculating on the next pitcher and the thumper for the outfield. I still like Garland or Wolf and Mags.
If Escobar is dealt, I would love to see Lillibridge given every opportunity to win the SS job next year. If we took Greene back in a deal, he would be there as a SS or 3B backup, or a mentor for Lilly! Lillibridge at times looks totally lost at the plate and in the field, but at other times he looks like the real deal.
And I would not be afraid of having Frenchy and Greene in the lineup together.
Folks, it has been a long day, and I am turning in.
Nite all!
By nolie
October 15, 2008 11:37 PM | Link to this
I really don’t mean to rail on the guy (he’s a very good everyday SS), but I just can’t find star quality there.mbatl
I see hiom as an excellent defensive SS who will be an above average but likely not great hitter. I would rather include him than Heyward and I am a prospects are still prospects kinda guy for the most part. I would be more willing to keep Esco and trade Schafer or Hanson. Hanson because so many young promising pitchers never develop into studs and I think Heyward is easier and safer to project than Hanson. Schafer I am just not all that sold on. He has the tools no doubt, but so many toolsy guys just never learn to hit well enough to be stars. I think of the top 3 he is the least likely to become enough of a force to preclude him from being traded for Peavy. Even with either Esco or say Schafer, they are still gonna want a couple more good prospects, not Hicks for instance or Campbell, and maybe a 4th guy who is lower rated. I still have serious doubts that a trade will get done for him though, but we can hope. Greene could be a necessary evil for a year though the thought of him and Frenchy near the bottom of the order is kinda scary. Hopefully they would both bounce back some, but they are my least favorite kinda hitters.
By Shaun
October 15, 2008 11:40 PM | Link to this
To think there were folks who thought Lidge would be a “disaster in that ballpark.”
By Couch Tater
October 15, 2008 11:41 PM | Link to this
At least the Philthies didn’t win at home.
By cabravesfan
October 15, 2008 11:49 PM | Link to this
kirknga
I actually wouldn’t trade escobar either- but that’s just me
By uga-brave
October 15, 2008 11:51 PM | Link to this
for what it is worth bob nightengale in his latest article in baseball weekly does not have the braves in the running for any of the A list free agents.
he has manny and k-rod both going to the mets. he has lowe going to the tigers and aj burnett going to the yankees.
he has pat the bat going to the giants, which is fine with me. i sure hope we dont pursue burrell. never been a big fan of his.
congrats to charlie manuel. old school baseball man, and you gotta respect a manager that is not the first guy on the field when his team wins something.
By Steve from OH
October 15, 2008 11:58 PM | Link to this
Nolie, I’m willing to trade Hanson if he’s the centerpiece of the deal, surrounded by lower-level prospects and a guy like Gorkys. But I’m not for giving up Heyward, and I’m definitely NOT for giving up a mix of good big-league players like Yunel and good minor leaguers like Hanson.
Oh, and I’m still very high on Schafer—scouting reports say ++defender with an excellent arm, and he’s still got tons of room to grow on offense. Based on some comments by Schafer himself, I’m willing to put less weight on his 1st half because of the whole HGH thing weighing heavily on his mind. If you throw that out, he’s been pretty good in the minors from A+ ball on up.
By Wilson
October 15, 2008 11:59 PM | Link to this
DOB, if Escobar were to be included in a Peavey deal, would Wren and co. be ok with not getting Greene back and just going with Lillibridge at SS next year?
By Steve from OH
October 16, 2008 12:03 AM | Link to this
Oh, and I’m happy for Charlie Manuel, who geniunely seems to be a nice guy and got a lot of crap in Philly that I thought he didn’t deserve. Hopefully this takes a little bit of the heat off of him.
By Wayne
October 16, 2008 12:03 AM | Link to this
kirknga Huge difference between McCann and Escobar. Escobar is a possible star SS, and probably at a minimum a very good SS. (probably somewhere in the middle)
McCann, is a proven asset. An all-star caliber catcher. A position where it is rare to get this sort of offense.
As someone else mentioned, it is extremely difficult to replace a catcher the caliber of Brian McCann. While it would be hard to replace Escobar, it is not out of the realm of possibility that the combination of Khalil Greene and Lillibridge would come very close to giving you the same defensive and offensive numbers.
Shortstop is a much easier position to replace. If you don’t believe it, look in the Braves organization and tell me which position we have 2-3 upcoming players who could develop into a suitable player for SS/C. The talent is NOT there for catcher.
It’s called trading from strength. We have at least 5 players who are capable of giving us 280-300 hitting with 10-20 HR’s and the appropriate number of RBI’s as Escobar (Esco, KJ, Kotchman, Schafer, Frenchy and maybe BJones).
By Daybed Wagmoe
October 16, 2008 12:05 AM | Link to this
I kinda hope that the Red Sox win the next two games then lose game 7 so that the Phillies go into the World Series cold and lose, just like the Rockies and Tigers did the last two years.
By Moby Grape
October 16, 2008 12:08 AM | Link to this
I’m trying to get an idea of why you would trade one young player who will fill a position for the long-term, but not another?Kirk
doesn’t seem all that hard to figure. Mac is a much more productive catcher than Esco is a SS. Plus we have more possible replacements at short plus Greene would be coming in and he is a very good defensive SS with power albeit a terrible OBP. Actually i might be tempted to trade Mac with Flowers in the system except that Brian is the only really good hitter we have after Chipper.
By N Nine
October 16, 2008 12:09 AM | Link to this
Escobar?
Some excellent debate going on this blog today. I take Escobar debate seriously and have been reading everyone’s take.
I’m not dumping on Yunel… but he’s certainly not one of the untouchables, in my opinion mbatl
If you just look at Escobar’s numbers then I can understand this. Yunel brings more than just numbers, he’s a gamer and he will only improve. I’d say keep Yunel and try other options. Why not switch prado with yunel in the total package? K.Green could then be bench man for a year.
I think trading Escobar significantly hurts our team. With Peavy, we still come out on top, IMO, but with a lesser benefit Steve From OH
Probably not significantly. I agree we should keep him but If and only if we realize deal is going to fail then I would plug in yunel, because when the day is done Peavy would impact the team more.We CAN’T go into next season without an ace and FA market is looking iffy at best (for ace).I’m sure we could find an average SS that would hit .290 and 15-20HR..I feel mixed about this- I love the guy and hate to lose him also.
By Steve from OH
October 16, 2008 12:12 AM | Link to this
Wayne, I don’t think we’re as deep as you think at SS. At least at catcher we have Flowers, who is albeit a few years off, but he is at least a legit prospect. I don’t see anyone with that type of potential at SS. Unless you think Lillibridge is?
I think Josh’s 11:11 hit the nail on the head.
By N Nine
October 16, 2008 12:20 AM | Link to this
DOB, if Escobar were to be included in a Peavey deal, would Wren and co. be ok with not getting Greene back and just going with Lillibridge at SS next year? Wilson
You forget we have prado/Fante. This whole rumors around middle infield might become common since we are stocked at the positions. They tried trading Lillibridge so prob. not an option with him.
By Brian
October 16, 2008 12:35 AM | Link to this
Shaun- Are you a Phillies fan cause you are definitely a strange fella!!
By Wayne
October 16, 2008 12:37 AM | Link to this
N Nine I don’t consider Infante or Prado as viable 155 game per year SS’s.
Steve I was not thinking about Flowers, who might end up at first. Not sure about his catching skills. I still doubt McCann would go, but stranger things have happened.
As for SS, I was thinking about Lillibridge (who, btw, I am still high on), Greene (who, if successful in 2009 would be pursued by mgt) and Hicks primarily. Hicks is supposed to be a slick fielder, who has some pop, but so far isn’t hitting for high average.
Nite (this time for certain!)
Go Rays!!
By Roman Gal
October 16, 2008 12:40 AM | Link to this
FYI, Jordan Schafer, Eric Campbell, and Reid Gorecki are all playing tonight for the Mayos de Navajoa. They’re still playing but they’ve all gotten on base.
Jordan Schafer- 0-3, BB, RBI Reid Gorecki-1-3, RBI Eric Campbell-1-3, 2B
They’re winning 4-2 in the 8th inning.
One thing I found encouraging about Schafer’s performance so far in Mexico is that in 17 at bats, he only has one strike out.
By nolie
October 16, 2008 12:50 AM | Link to this
yeah,Steve Hanson might make it big, but the odds are that he won’t. There are probably 300-400 pitchers drafted every year but at any given time in the bigs there are usually no more than 12-20 real number one starters on the entire 30 teams. Very long odds to develop a Peavy as Braves’ history the last 12 years or so really should show us. A Peavy in the hand, especially for 4 years at a reasonable salary, is worth any number of Hansons in the bush. Remember a whole lot of guys have looked as good as Hanson has at the lower levels, never ro make an impact in the bigs. Now before Lew gives me hell, I am NOT saying that Hanson won’t be an impact player, none of us can know that. What I am saying is that Peavy is a PROVEN impact player already. I’d trade Hanson in a heartbeat in a deal to get Peavy.along with Hernandez, and just about any other prospect except Heyward. Or Schafer instead of Hanson, maybe even both and a lower rated prospect if that is what it took.
By ccrider
October 16, 2008 12:51 AM | Link to this
Steve from OH: I think if you look at Hanson and his minor league stats, SO per inning, NO Hitter, rapid ascent, ERA, etc. He has been the very definition of a potential ACE No.1.. Will he be? I’m sure they were asking the same question about Peavy, Kazmir, Linececum. I do believe the Braves think he has that potential and that is why he won’t be traded. The Braves have done an amazing job over the years deciding who to keep and who to trade, with very few mistakes along the way. So many posters on this blog cry about the Texeira trade. So far, Harrison has pitched in the majors but at best is considered a bottom of the rotation guy. Salty hasn’t taken ahold of the starting catchers job and may be on the trading block. The one player every moans about is Nefatali Perez and his minor league numbers have been very good, but he is still a question mark due to his slight build and he may yet become a reliever. Perez is the only player of this traded group that has shown above average potential and unless someone breaks out and becomes a star this trade , like so many the Braves have made will be a draw. I honestly think Kevin Towers is more concerned with getting proven major leaguers with prospects and if we trade Escobar and Prado along with either Gorky or Flowers and Diamond and a highly regarded lower pitching prospect it will get the job done. A starting Middle infield A future starting Catcher or centerfielder and a couple of pitchers that could be middle of the rotation quality, that’s a pretty good haul.
By nolie
October 16, 2008 12:57 AM | Link to this
Steve I was not thinking about Flowers, who might end up at first. Not sure about his catching skills.Wayne
his catching skills are at least on a par with McCann’s perhaps better at the same stage .I’m pretty high on the guy considering the low level he has played at so far and the general skepticism I usually have about prospects.
I don’t think we have a real full time shortstop other than Esco, so if he goes we would need Greene back. I’d rather do the deal for Peavy without losing Esco if possible, but IF it did go through there is no question that we are gonna lose a couple of highly thought of players and some of us are gonna be disappointed.
By kirknga
October 16, 2008 1:07 AM | Link to this
Wayne
If I had asked that question last year? McCann did ok, but there was a point last year as to whether or not he was a keeper or perhaps Salty was better.
My point being that we don’t know that Escobar isn’t as good or better at his position as McCann. We know he can play at a high level though.
I still don’t see a clear enough line of distinction between trading Escobar or trading McCann except that McCann is more liked by people here.
To me, neither of them should be traded. If I were the Padres, I have a SS, but I don’t have a catcher. Why wouldn’t the ask for McCann? It makes more baseball sense than Escobar does because he feels an actual need. That is why I think alot of the discussion about trading Escobar is personal and not based on baseball.
By N Nine
October 16, 2008 1:12 AM | Link to this
Roman Gal Not MLB Pitching products but yes great to hear he only has one strikeout…how is his avg?
By BA
October 16, 2008 1:23 AM | Link to this
I don’t know much, and I’ve never seen the queen in her damned undies, but I say there is absolutely NO way they move McCann. I wouldn’t even do Mac for Peavy straight up. Esocobar? Maybe- but he’s a lot more valuable than say, Johnson. So if you can build the package around Escobar, maybe you wouldn’t have to trade as many prospects.
If you get Greene back, he better work out, because there just isn’t much at SS on the farm right now. I don’t think Hicks is anywhere close to being ready.
By N Nine
October 16, 2008 1:30 AM | Link to this
I still don’t see a clear enough line of distinction between trading Escobar or trading McCann except that McCann is more liked by people here Kirknga
huh? am I reading this correct? I know years go by quick but Yunel just finished his first full season. McCann has 2 all stars and a stud with 20 something homers. An Elite catchers are hard to find and there are many stars in middle infield. So all in all I couldn’t disagree anymore. and your lucky McFann is asleep.
someone brought up McCann for peavy…that would be a loud NO!!
By kirknga
October 16, 2008 1:46 AM | Link to this
Again, I don’t want to trade either guy.
But I am not convinced that McCann is not only a better player than Escobar, but so much better that he would be considered untouchable, I don’t know if I buy that. Especially with the defensive liabilities.(Just saying)
You could trade McCann and sign Pudge or Lo Duca.
Once you start down that path, you can rationalize trading anyone on this team.If I’m the Padres, I want McCann because I already have a SS, but need a catcher. Why would the Padres ask for Escobar and not McCann? Why wouldn’t they ask for JJ?
I think this Peavy fever has gotten ahold of some people’s best baseball judgment .
By Coach (Skip will be missed)
October 16, 2008 1:48 AM | Link to this
Yunel Escobar is the best athlete on the team. Short stops generally are. His 2008 season was severely stunted by injury, especially because opposing teams kept pitching Yunel inside and hitting him. I think that we have yet to see his best.
Wow, did Furcal melt down in the fifth inning or what? I have to wonder if his back is completely healed, Furcal looked as if he was having problems getting his glove down to field some of the ground balls hit his way.
I’m not so sure if Furcal is to much of an injury risk headed into free agency.
Congratulation to the Phillies, they deserve it. Philadelphia and probably Tampa Bay in the WS, not exactly what the networks were hoping for and most of the WS games are scheduled for the middle of the week. The ratings are going to be ugly.
By Budsman
October 16, 2008 1:50 AM | Link to this
Get serious, if you want a top of their game ACE on the cheap you better start out with your cream. If you dont start with your best you may as well try get CC.
By braves fan 4 life
October 16, 2008 2:05 AM | Link to this
I’m a first time poster, long time reader. Very excited to see what Frank Wren and company do to improve this braves team this offseason. In regards as to what i think they should try to do, how about these trades. Kj, Casey Kotchman, Brent lillibridge, Jeff Locke, Cole Rorbough, and Steve Diamond, for Jake peavy and Adrian Gonzalez. You could then trade Charlie Morton, Brandon Jones, Chuck James, and Matt Diaz, to the Red Sox for jason Bay. Last you could trade Jo-Jo reyes, Gregor Blanco, and Tyler Flowers, to the rays for Edwin Jackson. By doin these trades you would still have enough money to sign a free agent pitcher like a Lowe or an Oliver Perez or maybe both and resign smoltz, norton, ohman, a BUC, and mabe Darryl Ward. Th team would then look like this. 1. Schaeffer CF, 2. Escobar SS, 3. Hoss 3B, 4. Bay Lf, 5. Gonzalez 1B, 6. Mac C, 7. Francoeur Rf, 8. Prado 2B. The rotation would be Peavy, Lowe, JJ, Perez, Jackson. Bullpen: Gonzalez, Smoltz, Soriano, Moylan, Acosta, Ohman, and Campillo. The Reserves Anderson, Infante, Norton, Ward, and BUC. Plus you would still have our core prospects of Heyward, Hanson, Hernandez, Schaeffer, Freeman, Johnson, Medlen, Reddmond and Teheran. What do you guys think. This is just my opinion, so if you dont think it woiuld work try explaining why. instead of saying this isnt fantasy baseball and not giving any reason.
By N Nine
October 16, 2008 2:20 AM | Link to this
Well kirknga if mccann cant “convince” you i’m not going to try. Mccann is top 5 best overall catcher in MLB.
By kirknga
October 16, 2008 2:22 AM | Link to this
N Nine, I didn’t phrase that line of distinction comment well. But I still haven’t gotten a good reason why the Padres would ask for Escobar and not McCann since they have a SS already and according to some here a far superior player.
I don’t think McFann will be too upset at me as I’ve said I wouldn’t trade either. I put them on the same level as far as players penciled in at their positions for some time to come.
Coach, I think you mean that Furcal is too much of an injury risk right?
By P-Town Brave
October 16, 2008 2:47 AM | Link to this
Nolie
Wow…I thought I was the only one on this board not sold on Schafer…
From what I have read he is projected to be a poor man’s Steve Finley, while many project Gorkys to be a Carl Crawford type…I don’t know about you and yes, Finley had a lengthy career, but I’d take a Carl Crawford type any day…
I once again say no on Escobar to SD…
The guy has been said to project to Soriano type numbers w/ a little less power, but more plate discipline…I mean who is to say that if we batted him 6th next season he couldn’t hit 20 HR?
I would also start the conversation w/ Hanson and KJ as the main pieces…if it comes down to it, sub Schafer for KJ and add more pitching…
The best thing about this is that the Pads highest need is what we have the most of, and our main competition (St. Louis) has the least of…
Once again on Greene…if we took him, its either going to be as a starter bc of his salary or it’d be to flip him to someone else needing a SS as I stated in an earlier post about sending him to Detroit to get Maggs.
The main idea here is to add pieces that will make us compete next year while also not removing pieces that take us a step back…we haven’t had a SS come through our system w/ the type of talent Yunel has since…well…Chipper….
And for those who have either forgotten or didn’t realize…Yunel had a better BA, OBP, and more hits than Chipper in their first full seasons by comparison….(not to beat on Chipper because I love the guy)…but I think that makes a point
By BA
October 16, 2008 2:50 AM | Link to this
braves fan 4 life, you’re giving up too much for Peavy/Gonzalez. And too much for Jackson. I don’t think the Sox would trade Bay, but if they did they’d want better players. And I want no part of Perez.
But I like the other stuff, and I have to admit that’s a mean looking lineup. Imagine having The Ugly Stick AND Ward on the bench!
By Steve Finley
October 16, 2008 2:57 AM | Link to this
Hurtful, P-Town. Hurtful.
By kirknga
October 16, 2008 3:19 AM | Link to this
Very good point P-Town Brave and well put about what the objective is and how we go about doing it.
Interesting take on adding Gonzalez to the deal. That could be game changer and one would cost an Escobar or McCann, if not both.
By Coach (Skip will be missed)
October 16, 2008 3:37 AM | Link to this
If Furcal isn’t healthy, yes. He is too much of a risk.
I crunched some numbers and it ain’t pretty. How bad off are our Braves? This should sober up more than a few people.
2008 saw the bullpen pitch 554.1 innings. The rotation contributed 886.1
2007, Bullpen 539.1 innings, Rotation 917.0 innings.
2006, Bullpen 512.1 innings, Rotation 929.0 innings.
2005, Bullpen 444.2 innings, Rotation 999.0 innings.
The bullpen numbers have gone up while the rotation’s total’s have dropped in direct contrast.
Even more interesting is the correlation between quality starts and wins.
2005, 80 quality starts, 90-72.
2006, 71 quality starts, 79-93.
2007, 81 quality starts, 84-78.
2008, 75 quality starts, 72-90.
To say that the Braves starting pitching is in shambles would be an understatement. The bullpen has topped 500 innings for the last three years in a row. That had previously happened just once since 1985.
By kirknga
October 16, 2008 5:09 AM | Link to this
Coach those are some staggering numbers. Just underscores the urgency of adding two healthy top-of-the-rotation type starters.
Given that we also need to add at least one power OF, it is apparent to me that the Braves are going to likely have to sign a FA or two.
I don’t think the Braves have enough prospects/young players to only improve via trades only.
By ncscoots
October 16, 2008 6:25 AM | Link to this
nolie, thanks for that 12:50 post, that’s pretty close to my thinking re trade pieces for Peavy. I guess I started frothing at the mouth a little last night at the thought of trading Escobar, LOL, and couldn’t make the case as well as you did there.
In any event, somebody good will go the other way in any big trade, and some folks will be unhappy about it. I just don’t want one of them to be me! :-)
By flange1
October 16, 2008 8:25 AM | Link to this
Morning all,
I ma on the road traveling and just finished catching up on the blog, you guys had it out yesterday!
Great discussion on Peavy and Escobar/Hanson/Heyward.
On the Phillie MVP thing,
Shaun, dude, please listen for one minute. NO ONE is arguing that your the stats that you cite to suggest that Utley is the man. NO ONE.
What folks are saying is that there are other ways to judge an MVP. And further, DOB has given you the way that voters think.
YES, it is different from what you think.
You very well might be right that your way of thinking is the best way.
BUT YOUR WAY IS NOT THE WAY THE GUYS THAT VOTE THINK.
You can argue until dooms day that you are right, and still not change a thing.
THE WAY FOLKS VOTE FOR MVP IS SUBJECTIVE.
There, I said it. It might not be right, but that is the way it is.
Being a bulldog when you believe in something is great, but at some point you have to realize that the rest of the group is not changing their minds and the voters are not even listening, so you continue with your beliefs, BUT YOU STOP FIGHTING IT ON THE BLOG.
I think this is the third year in a row that you have gotten all bent out of shape on MVP voting.
In my mind MVP, CY Young are really not much more than all star selections. Folks give their opinion based on THEIR ideas not any sort of facts.
IF the AJC let their folks vote, the Atlanta folks could put in 1-2 votes for Corky Miller and Blaine Boyer if they chose too.
Totally wrong votes in my mind, but they COULD vote that way because their is no methodology required to form your vote.
I love your posts and your viewpoint, you add a huge amount of thought and information to the blog, but sometimes you get this Don Quiote thing going….
Efrim and Steve from Ohio, GREAT discussion on the Peavy situation. I enjoyed it so much I read it a second time. It will be interesting to see if a deal happens.
With the Padres “sueing” Greene over his injury, It would not surprise me to see a package deal that would include Escobar from our side.
I am not high on trading Escobar, but I do want to get an ace. Other than Peavy, I don’t see one available that the Braves can obtain.
By N Nine
October 16, 2008 8:51 AM | Link to this
With the Padres “sueing” Greene over his injury flange1
Why are they sueing him? Not saying Greene will hit for average like last year but since we are taking on Frenchy, we can’t afford two guys possibly hitting under .250 as everyday players, just my take on it.
McCann is our leader and will NEVER be considered.
By Steve from OH
October 16, 2008 9:04 AM | Link to this
Nolie, I agree with your 12:50 100%. What I am saying is that I’m not for giving up Hanson, Escobar, Hernandez and more minor leaguers on top of that. I think that gives up a little too much. It may help our pitching staff, because I don’t think Hanson will turn out to be Peavy, but that definitely hurts our team on the field now and in the long term. And with the outfield on such tenuous footing, I don’t want to give up a good offensive player that we can actually count on coupled with very good prospects.
If Hanson is in a deal comprised solely of prospects, I’d probably do it as long as Heyward and Schafer aren’t in it.
By Shaun
October 16, 2008 9:11 AM | Link to this
flange1, great post at 8:25. I agree with all that regarding the MVP. I think your view of the situation is right on.
I feel the need to “fight” it on the blog because this is an outlet for baseball discussion and one of the few places baseball fans can have such discussions.
By DAP
October 16, 2008 9:20 AM | Link to this
just reading the trade talks from over night…
braves fan for life im pretty sure the red sox will have no intention of shopping bay, and if the pads trade adrian gonzalez, i think they wil try to do it in a seperate trade, so they can get more.
guys, about trading mccann, i think your going a little over board. mccann will not and should not be traded, period. also, i feel the same way about yunel. the best defensive shortstop in the majors, and i definetly he has the potential to hit 20 homers if he plays everyday and doesnt get hit in the hands with pitches. id trade KJ first, mostly because i think we have more guys who can actually play 2nd well, infante, prado, or we could even sign free agent hudson if we traded KJ. but, i hope we dont.
the braves have a good core of players, and they need to keep that core together while making trades.
By Shaun
October 16, 2008 9:21 AM | Link to this
If Escobar is traded, I hope Lillibridge becomes the Braves everyday shortstop and not Khalil Greene. It seems Greene has become Rey Ordonez with power and lesser defensive skills.
Greene’s career OBP is .304. His career batting average is .248. You could blame Petco except that his road on-base is .318.
Over the past three seasons, his on-base is the second-worst in the majors among regulars at .290. Only Pedro Feliz has a worse on-base.
Greene is clearly one of the worst hitting regulars in baseball. I hope to God he doesn’t become an Atlanta Brave or at least not the starting shortstop.
By Big Easy
October 16, 2008 9:21 AM | Link to this
Well, I was expecting a Rays-Phillies World Series, and I am hoping the Rays win it all. (My prediction: Rays in 6)
But if the Phillies do win it all, I have a bold prediction: Shane Victorino, WS MVP.
The dude is playing out of his mind, and, contrary to the opinion of some on here, I agree with DOB that I would love to see Victorino on our team. Speed, a little pop, and great defense.
Now, I usually agree with our beloved McFann on most things, but that is one topic we disagree on. I know she dislikes “The Reaper” with a passion, but he is a hard-nosed guy who plays with fire. He is a spark plug, and has been the driving force in the postseason for the Phils.
And I also think the whole Victorino-McCann collision was a clean play with no malice or intent, but that is me.
~E~
By GeorgeoftheJungle
October 16, 2008 9:26 AM | Link to this
All this talk about terrible on-base percentages and then we talk about getting Khalil Greene? Interesting.
Maybe the Braves should sue Franceour. :)
blogcabin.bustablog.com Y’all might appreciate the conversation concerning a Peavy trade and what this guy thinks they should do.
By kdbanks
October 16, 2008 9:31 AM | Link to this
Hey DOB,
Long time, no post.
I’ve been thinking lately about how it seems the last couple of years, that older players are not performing the way we have grown accustomed to older players producing. Mostly due to injuries, but sometimes due to slower bat speed, weaker arms, tireder legs, etc. I would venture that the lack of steroids is a part, of course, but also the lack of “greenies” or whatever the kids are calling them these days.
So I’m thinking that, as a team looking to sign or trade for players this off season, you would want to be careful about bringing in an older player on a long-term deal, or even counting on an older player to push you over the top. Manny Ramirez is 36, correct? And he wants a 6-year deal. Ignoring his tendency to play his best only when a contract is up, that seems like a superb risk even for teams with bottomless checkbooks like the Mets and Yankees. The Dodgers are currently getting burned by some older, big money guys that aren’t producing, and the younger, cheaper guys are producing well.
Pitchers like Peavy and Sabathia - both late 20’s - would be much better, though more expensive in terms of prospects in the former’s case and straight cash in the latter’s, than signing an older guy for a year or two. Even if the older guy is cheaper. Same with outfielders. Why take on a guy who’s late in his career, even if he’s producing well now. Might not hold up in 2009.
I’d like to see the Braves move towards a younger team, especially in the starting rotation. I like the move at 1B to get younger, I like the young outfielders we’ve brought up, and I like having Chipper be the only grayhair on the starting 8.
The game seems to be “normalizing” so that players age, lose some bat speed or pitch speed and drift off to the ESPN studios like they are supposed to.
Here’s hoping that the Braves are making a youth movement going forward.
By Efrim
October 16, 2008 9:41 AM | Link to this
Steve from OH
If Hanson is in a deal comprised solely of prospects, I’d probably do it as long as Heyward and Schafer aren’t in it
I would too, but that deal soley comprised of prospects might rival the Dan Haren deal of like 6 prospects. It’s very possible. So if you deal Escobar and get Greene back, you probably aren’t going to have to throw 5-6 prospects back. Maybe 2. 3 at most. And obviously depending what those prospects are, it might not make sense. Can’t wait to find out what it will really take to get Peavy. I think a lot of us will be shocked.
Shaun
If it helps us get Peavy, while lessening the blow to our farm system, then I am okay with Greene being apart of this deal. Now, there are teams that don’t value OBP as much as other clubs. Maybe one of those teams that needs a SS would be willing to trade for Khalil Greene after we make the deal with the Padres? I agree with you overall though. I would rather Lillibridge starting everyday than Greene……although I am not sure Littlebridge would be THAT much better. But like you said, Greene has been pretty bad from an offensive perspective.
By Lew
October 16, 2008 9:43 AM | Link to this
It’s a new day here (I would hope) and I’ll start it off by actually agreeing with Shaun. No Khalil Greene.
If the Padres gets a package of young prospects that includes highly rated pitching, I would seriously doubt they would insist on anyone taking Khalil. I also doubt that Escobar would be part of any deal. First of all, they are not going to be a winner next year and since Khalil has only one year left on his contract, I just don’t see him as being that big an albatross around the Padres’ necks. Let him play out the string and then hit the road. He’s not going to bring much in return anyway.
As to the contingent that keeps insisting that the Jays are going to trade Burnett and Halladay-dream on. The Rays have just shown the AL East that the traditional beasts can be taken out. The Blue Jays have two of the premier top of rotation pitchers in the AL. Without them they stand a snowball’s chance in the Peachtree Road Race. Why the hell would they trade their only chance at competing? Not to mention that both of the pitchers have come out publicly and said a. they are happy in Toronto and willing to sign extensions and b. The Jays have indicated to these players that they would like to continue paying for their employment. Face it folks-it won’t happen.
By Lee in S GA
October 16, 2008 9:57 AM | Link to this
But if the Phillies do win it all, I have a bold prediction: Shane Victorino, WS MVP.
Big Easy
I have been saying this, out loud in in head anyway, for about a week now. I certainly would not have any problem with Victorino on the Braves team either.
If it does mean having to acquire Greene in a trade with San Diego and the Braves actually having to keep him; I hope Peavy is never a Brave. All this teams needs is a proven offensive liability which is exactly what Greene is.
IF Francouer improves to old self, if Johnson hits constantly and if we acquire a power left- fielder the Braves could survive with Greene on the team. That is too many IF’s for me.
By David O'Brien
October 16, 2008 10:01 AM | Link to this
DOB, if Escobar were to be included in a Peavy deal, would Wren and co. be ok with not getting Greene back and just going with Lillibridge at SS next yearWilson
Seems doubtful to me, but I’m not certain.
Steve from OH: you might be underestimating Gorkys’ status. The Braves are very high on him, and scouts drool over his potential, his talent. I think they’d be real reluctant to give up both Hanson AND Gorkys in a deal.
By McFann Ô
October 16, 2008 10:02 AM | Link to this
OK, just got through reading last night’s major discussion…
Haha…haha…hahahahaha!! There’s no way, no how!! Hahaha! Oh-ho man…
kirknga, kirknga, kirknga!! No way, man!
You’re not convinced that McCann is a better player? He’s the first player in Braves franchise history to make the ASG in each of his first three full Big League seasons! Not convinced? He’s got a better career AVG at this point than Johnny Bench did after his first 3+ seasons! Not convinced?
The Pardres won’t ask for McCann because they know that Wren is NOT that dumb. (Now, I’m not sayin’ you’re dumb, you said you’d trade neither.)
I think N Nine said it best:
McCann is our leader and will NEVER be considered.
I’m not ALL for trading Escobar, but I’d do it to get Peavy. But I wouldn’t trade McCann for Cy Young.
Big E—
If the Fillies win the WS, I think you’re MVP prediction will be a reality. And then we’ll have to hear it, for 18 games, every time he comes up to bat: “And here’s the World Series MVP! Shane Victorino!” Ugh…
I know she dislikes “The Reaper” with a passion, but he is a hard-nosed guy who plays with fire.
That’s just the problem: He’s too good! And his playing with fire hurt us…
Maybe it was a clean play…I don’t know. I haven’t seen it since July…took me about that long to get the visual out of my head.
Now, I usually agree with our beloved McFann on most things, but that is one topic we disagree on.
Thank you. Yeah, guess we’ll have to agree to disagree here. Though, if he was on our team we’d prob’ly have an easier time with the Fillies…
By Shaun
October 16, 2008 10:06 AM | Link to this
Lew, I have no idea what the Blue Jays may or may not do. It may be a good idea for them to look in to trading Burnett. He’s been a solid pitcher but he hasn’t been an overly outstanding innings-eater and he’s not exactly a young man. At 31, this may be as valuable as he’s going to get coming off his first season of more than 12 wins. Maybe some team would overpay for him and give the Jays three or four very good-to-useful players in return. Not saying they will or they should (if they can resign him at a reasonable price and can’t get exactly what they want for him). But it seems to make sense for them to at least look into it.
Halladay, on the other hand, is a different story.
By Steve from OH
October 16, 2008 10:06 AM | Link to this
Efrim: yeah, taking Greene makes the payment a little less IMO. Still don’t like giving up Escobar. And I really don’t like having Greene in the lineup.
You know, I was thinking about this whole deal this morning, and I realized that we’re talking as though Peavy is the only option that will improve our staff…this deal won’t happen in a vacuum. Frank Wren will be on the lookout for better deals, so I daresay that (while Peavy might be the best option out there) that he won’t be the best value. Let’s say FW has a deal in place for Oswalt for less prospects? Do you do that one over a more expensive Peavy deal? Or what if he can pick up two younger, lesser starters for less than one Peavy…and keep Hanson and Escobar in the fold? Or a good starter and a Magglio Ordonez?
The more I think about it, the more I think that we’re not going to get Peavy. Even if we get a (relatively) good deal, the cost will be prohibitive in the sense that it will hinder our ability to make some of the other deals we need, unless some extraordinarily stupid team values a package of Reyes, Lillibridge and Jones.
Oh, and I read a little snippet on MLBTR that said that Derek Lowe’s teammates say that he has little interest in playing in New York. I really think he’s a Brave next season, I really do.
By Steve from OH
October 16, 2008 10:15 AM | Link to this
DOB, I’m certainly not. I am extremely conservative when it comes to dealing prospects, in case you haven’t already noticed, lol.
I don’t want to give up any of them…but we’ve got a bit of a surplus so we might have to. But we canNOT do another Tex-deal. At the time, our system could sustain it, but I’m not as sure how our system today could handle another loss like that. Our farm is our strenght right now, so I hope we don’t damage it too much.
I feel as though my last post was poorly worded, so I can clarify it later if anyone wants.
By David O'Brien
October 16, 2008 10:23 AM | Link to this
Flange1, excellent post at 8:25 a.m. You hit the nail on the proverbial head.
By Lew
October 16, 2008 10:26 AM | Link to this
Shaun-When in Toronto earlier this year, I heard an interview with Burnett and all the points I made were covered by AJ in his comments. They don’t want to go anywhere else and the Jays have agreed that they want them. This is not just my feelings on the matter, but based on the words of one of the principles in the situation. I would imagine Burnett would have a clearer view of the situation than the rest of us.
By DAP
October 16, 2008 10:42 AM | Link to this
the braves have the upper hand when dealing with san diego for peavy. it will come down to how bad the padres want to trade him, and free up his salary, and i think we could get him for less than many of you think. i think the closest the braves have to get to a major league player is brandon jones, charlie morton, jojo reyes or brent lillibridge. after that, its prospects.
By stynes
October 16, 2008 10:46 AM | Link to this
Shaun - You bring up some good points and I’m not trying to get all up in your grill like you feel perhaps some others have done. If I voted for MVP - and certainly I don’t! - I’d vote for Howard any day above Utley. And it has entirely to do with the way he played toward the end of the season. In my mind, it doesn’t have anything to do with the fact that it’s only a second half award, though. Here’s how I’d break it down.
At the end of a game, two of the players finish 1-4 with a double. One of them doubled with 2 outs and the bases empty in the 4th inning. The other doubled with 2 on and 2 out in the 9th and drove in the tying and go ahead run. For that game, which hit was more valuable?
I think you’ll be hard pressed to find anyone who’ll say the bases empty double was more valuable. Now granted had that guy not doubled, maybe they didn’t walk the guy behind him, maybe the lineup didn’t turn over again and maybe the other guy never even came to the plate in the 9th inning. I’m not saying the 4th inning double wasn’t valuable, just compared to the 9th inning double with men on base, it wasn’t as valuable.
Now I saw all that to say this - that’s to some degree how I view the games coming down the stretch when the race is tight and there’s the increased sense of pressure and demand on every at bat, every run, every game.
Now if the two players above, one went 1-4 driving in 2 runs in the 9th and the other went 3-4 and drove in a couple of runs himself then that’s a much different story. Then the guy who goes 3-4 is the more valuable contributer.
So that brings us back to Howard vs. Utley. Utley certainly does a lot of things well - including run production - but when you compare run production, Howard has a ton more HRs and RBIs. Looking into the stats, it comes from his production with men on base.
Utley’s avg is .292 and he’s hitting .301 with men on base, .271 with RISP. Howard on the other hand is only hitting .251. With men on, this JUMPS to .309 and with RISP, a whopping .320. With 2 outs and RISP, Utley is hitting .242 whereas Howard ups his average even further to .322.
Now whether all those stats show a lack of concentration from Howard when runners aren’t on base or just dumb luck or an uncanny ability to drive in runs, I’m not sure. But those numbers speak volumes to me. The man gets it done when it counts the most. That’s to me the definition of MVP.
By Shaun
October 16, 2008 10:47 AM | Link to this
Lew, all I’m saying is maybe it would be a good idea for Toronto to look in to trading Burnett. Not saying they will or they want to or Burnett wants to leave or anything like that. I have no idea. You’re probably right in that we have to take their word for how they view the situation.
I just think he’s not likely to have as much trade value as he does right now. He’s already 31 and he’s coming off his first season in which he’s won more than 12 games and pitched more than 209 innings. It would be a good time to see what they can get. If they can’t get three or four useful-to-very good players, maybe they should hold on to him. But this may be the best time for them to test the market for him.
By Lew
October 16, 2008 10:51 AM | Link to this
A bit more on the Blue Jay’s pitchers. Look at it like this. The Jays won 86 games-not great, considering the competition there division exhibits, but not far off from 90+ wins and not far off from serious Divisional contention. Their two top pitchers accounted for 38 wins.
Now let’s compare the top two pitchers on all of the Playoff teams and how many wins THEY accounted for.
Angels-33, Rays-28, Red Sox-34, Cubs-34, White Sox-32, Dodgers-30, Phillies-30, Brewers-24 and for the hell of it, the Yankees-34.
By a fairly great margin, considering their win total, Halladay and Burnett accounted for more wins than any other ML duo this season. With the Jays that close to contending and two great pitchers in place, why would they trade them?
Sorry y’all-86 wins, even in a division with the Rays, Red Sox and Yankees, does NOT a rebuilding club make. You don’t dump two perennially good pitchers unless you plan to rebuild.
Also, keep in mind that over the past six seasons, only TWO pitchers in all of MLB have won 15 or more games in four of those six seasons-Johan Santana and Roy Halladay. You do NOT trade a pitcher of his caliber when you are that close-maybe not even IF you were rebuilding, which the Jays are not. Another Dreamland scenario and little more.
By McFann Ô
October 16, 2008 11:04 AM | Link to this
Keylargo I bet you thought McFann would never go to bed so you could ask that question! 8)
LOL!
Kirknga If I had asked that question last year?
I think the answer would still be “NO!!” I know I’d have said “NO!!”, anyway.
Oh man…just think what would’ve happened if they had traded him last year…
(Which they wouldn’t have done anyway, seein’ as how they had just given him a contract.)
DAP guys, about trading mccann, i think your going a little over board. mccann will not and should not be traded, period.
Very true. Way overboard.
Heck, I’d rather have Escobar than Greene, just so y’all know.
By rammerjammer
October 16, 2008 11:06 AM | Link to this
I can’t believe anyone is hesitant to include Escobar for Peavy. Escobar is a nice player…could be really good over time…but is replaceable. Same for Johnson.
Peavy, on the other hand, is elite. We have no one like him. No one. And no one else like him is available (at least, not with our payroll).
If we can get Peavy for, say, Escobar, Brandon Jones, and two prospects that don’t include Hayward, Schafer, Morton or Hanson…I swear, you leap at that opportunity.
Great pitching makes a lot of other problems go away, and bad pitching makes all the problems worse.
By McFann Ô
October 16, 2008 11:10 AM | Link to this
DAP i think the closest the braves have to get to a major league player is brandon jones, charlie morton, jojo reyes or brent lillibridge. after that, its prospects.
That’d be really sweet. I’d love it if they could do that!
By TommyP
October 16, 2008 11:15 AM | Link to this
Just building on what others are suggesting….
If it takes an Escobar to acquire Peavy, would the Braves re-sign Renteria?????????
Just a thought…
By Brian
October 16, 2008 11:22 AM | Link to this
This is thinking way to far ahead but if the Braves get Peavy they should be smart on not sign a huge contract for a hitter because that money can be used to resign Hudson. A rotation of Peavy,Hudson,Jurrjens… would look good in the future! That’s why I think FW would rather trade for a bat instead. Could be way off but maybe not. Shaun, my God man!! GET A F*** LIFE!! You are almost as bad as Stevie boy!!
By DAP
October 16, 2008 11:23 AM | Link to this
I’d rather have Escobar than Greene
uhh…yeah. definetly.
rammerjammer If we can get Peavy for, say, Escobar, Brandon Jones, and two prospects that don’t include Hayward, Schafer, Morton or Hanson…I swear, you leap at that opportunity.
i would agree with that, but i just dont think there is or will be any need to do that. i dont really think escobar is as replaceable as you think, being the best defensive SS in the majors, and having 40 double, 20 homer potential (no im not joking) but i do agree we could build a good team with out him…especially if we had peavy instead.
i really dont think that will be necessary, though, and i would be careful about trading him.
By Frank Wren
October 16, 2008 11:25 AM | Link to this
We will be signing Rafael Furcal and trading Escobar in a deal for Jake Peavy. We are not interested in K. Greene. Escobar, Medlen, and Brandon Jones should get it done. We will look into young talent like Delmon Young, Hermida, Baldelli, Crawford, Scott Kazmir, Matt Kemp, Scott Olsen, Matt Cain, just to name a few, to see if they are available at the right price. We also have some guys on our radar that most baseball fans have not heard of, similar to last year when we picked up Jair Jurrjens. We will do our due diligence on names like Burnett, Sabathia, Lowe, Burrell, Perez, and a few others.
By DAP
October 16, 2008 11:26 AM | Link to this
If it takes an Escobar to acquire Peavy, would the Braves re-sign Renteria?????????
i dont think so. maybe furcal.
By N Nine
October 16, 2008 11:42 AM | Link to this
kirknga, kirknga, kirknga!! No way, man!
McFann i couldn’t fix kirknga. He was not right last night! He is your mann and a brave4LIFE.
By Lew
October 16, 2008 11:49 AM | Link to this
DAP-Sorry Dude, but almost as much as a chronically bad arm is not a good thing for a pitcher, a chronically bad back is not conducive to great play from a shortstop-especially one who makes around $13-15 mil a season who just missed the better part of a full season. Have you perhaps seen examples of Furcal’s fielding in the playoffs? Not very awe inspiring, IMO.
By Efrim
October 16, 2008 11:58 AM | Link to this
Frank Wren
Escobar, Medlen, and Brandon Jones should get it done.
I can’t wait to see what happens to Kevin Towers if that is the haul he gets for Jake Peavy.
By Shaun
October 16, 2008 12:02 PM | Link to this
At the end of a game, two of the players finish 1-4 with a double. One of them doubled with 2 outs and the bases empty in the 4th inning. The other doubled with 2 on and 2 out in the 9th and drove in the tying and go ahead run. For that game, which hit was more valuable?
But this is not two players going 1-for-4. This is akin to one player going 3-for-4 with at least one homer and one going 1-for-4 with the game-winning homer, and saying the guy who went 1-for-4 is more valuable than the guy who went 3-for-4.
By ncscoots
October 16, 2008 12:03 PM | Link to this
I’m sure Peavy, with a stated desire of winning, would be thrilled to be pitching in front of a lineup that consisted of Anderson, Prado, Greene, Kotchman, Francoeur, et al. That’s about what would be left if bloggers had a say in the trade package, LOL.
Somehow, I don’t think that’s what he has in mind.
By McFann Ô
October 16, 2008 12:04 PM | Link to this
N Nine—
Yeah, Kirknga was waaay off on that one…
He is your mann
Oh yeah! : )
and a brave4LIFE.
I sure hope so!!
Uh-oh…maybe getting Peavy isn’t such a good idea after all…
; )
By N Nine
October 16, 2008 12:05 PM | Link to this
DOB i guess Mark Bradley doesn’t read too much of the blog. I have not bothered reading his new blog titled Manny an atlanta brave?
By StingerSplash
October 16, 2008 12:09 PM | Link to this
DOB, seriously, dude, you’ve got to call Bradley and tell him to quit smoking whatever the hell he’s smoking. Or get him to share. Manny? In the ATL? He and Boras engineered a better escape than McQueen, Garner, Pleasance, Bronson, Coburn, et al, where he had a manager, team and general manager who turned the other way or actively coddled his big me/little team way of thinking. Now, there are few hitters in major league history who have his hitting instinct once he steps into the box. But Manny? In the Braves clubhouse? That would be over faster than a Pam Anderson marriage.
By Thrillhouse44
October 16, 2008 12:12 PM | Link to this
I can’t believe anyone is hesitant to include Escobar for Peavy. Escobar is a nice player…could be really good over time…but is replaceable. rammer
Who do you replace him with? Lil Bridge? I don’t think he’s ready for the show. Greene? He’s not Woodard, but not far from him either.
By geauxbraves2000
October 16, 2008 12:21 PM | Link to this
The Braves need a leadoff hitter. Furcal. I hate to see E leave, but if he nets Peavy, it’d be worth it. I don’t know much about Heyward and Hanson, but if one of those two have to be included, again, it’d be worth it. Like I said, I don’t know much about either of those two, but I’d trade a high prospect position player before I’d trade a high prospect pitcher.
I don’t like to do trade proposals, but would E, Heyward and another prospect get a deal done?
Geaux Braves!!
By rammerjammer
October 16, 2008 12:22 PM | Link to this
ncscoots,
One does wonder if going from a 99-loss club to a 90-loss club fits Peavy’s idea of joining a contender. I mean, it is what it is.
By kirknga
October 16, 2008 12:23 PM | Link to this
McFann,in my first comment , I said to you that it was only a question, I wasn’t trying to suggest we trade McCann. But unlike some, I feel the same about Escobar and I wanted to see how far some people were willing to go in trading proven talent for Peavy.
The Padres have a good SS, but don’t have a top caliber catcher. I believe it makes more baseball sense for them to ask for a player who plays a position they need and who is the far better player(in some opinions).
Unfortunately, just as I suspected, people are going by which player they like more and reacting rather than consider what I was asking and why. That’s why some make it seems as if I said to trade McCann when I said the opposite at least 4 times now.
By cabravesfan
October 16, 2008 12:26 PM | Link to this
But I wouldn’t trade McCann for Cy Young
Couldn’t have said it any better then that McFann:)
There was a story about Peavy in the LA Times this morning about his possibly being traded and it mentioned he had given Kevin Towers a list of 5 teams that he would waive his no trade clause for- Cubs, Astros, Cardnials, Dodgers (about as likely as McFann becoming a phillies fan) and the Braves…
By David O'Brien
October 16, 2008 12:29 PM | Link to this
Hey, Mark (Bradley) is writing a column and stating his opinion. As he said in the column, he doubts it (Manny to Atlanta) would happen. Got that right….
No, what I really have a problem with was his column earlier this week with more praise for Tyler Hansbrough. But I’ll leave that alone. As Mark pointed out, the returning NCAA Player of the Year is projected to go 20th in the 2009 draft. There are reasons. Damn good college player who plays hard — and out of control, at times. But limited skills, and undersized for the NBA. And his performance in the NCAA semis …
Oh, I said I’d leave that alone.
By rammerjammer
October 16, 2008 12:33 PM | Link to this
Thrillhouse44,
I worry less about replacing Escobar than I do about replacing Smoltz, Hudson or whoever our #1 starter is or was.
By Shaun
October 16, 2008 12:40 PM | Link to this
kirknga, whether one likes McCann more or Escobar more is irrelevant.
McCann is a 24-year-old catcher who has hit .297/.358/.501 over the course of his young career. If he keeps up anywhere near that pace for another seven or eight years, he’s likely a first-ballot Hall of Famer.
Escobar is a great player but he’s no Brian McCann.
So to answer your only-a-question: No way the Braves would consider trading McCann for Peavy. The Padres can ask all they want but the Braves would no doubt give them a resounding “Hell no.”
By TommyP
October 16, 2008 12:43 PM | Link to this
I thought Bradley’s piece on UNC was pretty good.
Hansbrough is a beast.
Not in this day and age do you see talent like they have stay in school.
By Shaun
October 16, 2008 12:56 PM | Link to this
Here is an interesting article warning pursuers of Peavy.
Peavy has $81 million guaranteed coming to him over the next five seasons. Any team that trades for him will obviously have to give up a significant package of prospects.
Then there is this (from the aforementioned article):
Peavy has had elbow problems twice in his career, most recently this past season in