AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2008 > October > 06 > Entry
DEL.ICIO.USAlabama son Peavy to pitch for Braves? It’s possible
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
He’s 27 years old, was a unanimous winner of the 2007 NL Cy Young Award, has averaged 192 innings and 194 strikeouts in six full seasons in the majors, and is under contract through 2011.
I don’t know, but it seems like the only way Jake Peavy could be a more perfect fit for the pitching-hungry Braves would be if he were a native Southerner.
What’s that? He was born in, raised in, and still lives in Alabama?
Well, hell, then what’s the holdup? Get that boy in a Braves uni, stat.
OK, so it’s not going to be that easy. But for all the denizens out there who believe your Braves don’t have a chance of prying Peavy out of San Diego and bringing home this native son — hey, he’s practically that — to pitch in Atlanta, well, don’t be so quick to dimiss the notion.
The Braves are holding organizational meetings this week at Dark Star (aka Lake Buena Vista, Fla.) and you can bet that Peavy’s name is going to be discussed, as in, how serious are the Padres about the possibility of trading him, and what will they want in return?
For a team that’s publicly stated it will use its assets however necessary to fill its primary needs — two starting pitchers and an outfielder with some power — rest assured the Braves will talk about how much of those assets, how many young players and/or prospects, it would take to get Peavy from the Padres.
What do you think, is that something most of you would get behind? I’m guessing most of you would.
Peavy will make $11 million in 2009, $15 million in 2010, $16 million in 2011 and $17 million in 2012. There’s also a big ol’ $22-million team option for 2013, with a $4 million buyout.
For a Braves team with more than $40 mill, perhaps more than $45 mill, to spend on additions for 2009, Peavy’s backloaded contract would work well because it would also allow them to sign or trade for another starting pitcher and outfielder, and bring back whichever ones they can or want to from the pitching group of Mike Hampton and the two still-not-sure-if-they-can-pitch-agains, John Smoltz and Tom Glavine.
The notion of getting an in-his-prime ace like Peavy, who’s averaged 13 wins over six full seasons with mostly mediocre San Diego teams, a guy who posted sub 2.90 ERA in four of the past five seasons, became a legitimate possibility after Padres GM Kevin Towers said last week that no one was untouchable, not even Peavy.
That’s because the Padres have ever-present payroll restrictions and are coming off a wholly disappointing 99-loss season, and Towers said they want to get younger.
Peavy’s plenty young, and they’d much prefer to keep their all-time strikeout leader, but if a team approaches towers with an offer for Peavy that includes several young, inexpensive, potential impact players, he’ll listen.
The Braves have a couple of potential big advantages over, say, the big-market teams in New York. For one, they have more quality pitching depth in their minor league system that they might be willing to part with (GM Frank Wren said last week that the Braves might be able to make a trade using some of that pitching, without trading top prospect Tommy Hanson).
Secondly, and this is a potential deal-maker or breaker: It’s quite possible that Peavy might not approve a trade to a New York team. Folks, the dude plays baseball in San Diego and yet chooses to make his residence in Semmes, Ala.
The season ends and he leaves sun-kissed SoCal to winter with the wife and kids in ‘Bama. So, you think this country boy just might be more inclined to approve a trade to the team he grew up loving, the Braves, than, say, the Yankees?
I’m thinking that’s a good bet.
The Braves lost their ace, Tim Hudson, when the Alabama native and former Auburn standout had Tommy John surgery that will likely sideline Hudson for all but the last month of the 2009 season, and possibly the entire season.
That made it imperative that the Braves this winter find a replacement No. 1 starter to replace Hudson, whose four-year, $47 million contract extension runs through 2009 (there’s a $12 mill option for 2010, with a $1 mill buyout).
Now comes the tantalizing possibility of Peavy, who, by the way, was set to pitch for Auburn before he signed with the Padres out of high school (St. Paul’s Episcopal) in 1999. He was a modest 10-11 in 27 starts this season, but that record is more indicative of the Padres’ anemic run support than anything else.
Peavy had an outstanding 2.85 ERA and a solid 1.180 WHIP (walks-plus-hits per inning pitched) that was right at his career mark. He received just under 3.7 support runs per nine innings pitched, a woeful figure that included eight starts in which the Padres scored one or no runs while he was in the games.
If Peavy is indeed available, the Braves should make a serious attempt to get him, provided they’re comfortable with his health.
When I asked someone in the organization, the response was anything but dismissive of the possibility of making a run at Peavy, if the Padres would deal him.
While they don’t want to mortgage the future by trading away top prospects such as Jason Heyward, Freddie Freeman, Jordan Schafer and Hanson, the Braves have plenty of other prospects, especially pitchers, who might interest Towers enough to make a deal.
They don’t want to give up a pitcher such as Hanson or Kris Medlen, or an outfielder such as Gorkys Hernandez or Schafer, but perhaps the Braves would bite the bullet if that’s what it took to get Peavy, who’s no ordinary ace. Maybe — and I’m just throwing out ideas here — the Padres would be interested in Kelly Johnson, since they’re not certain about their second base position next season and like good OBP guys who can drive balls to the gaps.
(If I’m the Braves, I wouldn’t want to give up Johnson unless absolutely necessary. I really do think he can be one of the best hitting second basemen in baseball next season, and that there’s a good chance he’ll become less streaky.)
If they move a Johnson or another young player off the current team, then the Braves would have another need to fill. But again, Peavy is a special talent. A serious ace. He is one of the eight or 10 bonafide, true “No. 1” pitchers in baseball, a pitcher you hand the ball to and expect to win every time.
He’s got nasty stuff and a hard-nosed demeanor and work ethic. The whole package, if you ask folks who should know, including Don Sutton.
The drawback, or potential red flag: Elbow.
He had an elbow scare in May that sidelined him four weeks, but an MRI showed no ligament damage and Peavy bounced back from that to record 13 quality starts in his last 18 games.
In seven of his 13 starts after July 4, he allowed one or no runs in seven or more innings, including an Aug. 31 start against Colorado in which he threw eight scoreless innings of five-hit ball with 13 strikeouts and two walks.
He only made two starts in September, missing some time to witness the birth of his third child. The Padres were cautious bringing him back from that slowly, since they were out of postseason contention and because of the earlier elbow problems.
Peavy also missed six weeks for a strained flexor tendon in that forearm/elbow in 2004, when he went 15-6 with a 2.27 ERA in 27 starts with 177 strikeouts in 163-1/3 innings.
In each of the next three seasons, he recorded over 200 innings and at least 215 strikeouts, including 223-1/3 innings with a league-high 240 strikeouts in 2007, when he finished 19-6 with a 2.54 ERA and won the Cy Young Award.
I went back to early in the 2006 season to find where Peavy really struggled for any significant period. Then I checked his stats since then, to compare him with some other of the game’s elite aces.
Beginning with July 26, 2006, Jake Peavy is 36-20 with a 2.63 ERA, with a .215 opponents’ average, 490 strikeouts and 154 walks in 474-1/3 innings.
In that same period, Brandon Webb is 44-22 with a 3.36 ERA, with a .239 opponents’ average, 436 strikeouts and 160 walks in 535-2/3 innings.
In that same period, Johan Santana is 38-21 with a 2.82 ERA, with a .224 opponents’ average, 528 strikeouts and 134 walks in 536 innings.
In that same period, CC Sabathia is 41-22 with a 2.91 ERA, with a .247 opponents’ average, 540 strikeouts and 113 walks in 585-1/3 innings.
CC is an absolute horse, a pitcher any team would love at the top of its rotation. But speculation is that his stretch-drive performance with the Brewers could net him a free-agent contract worth at least $100 million over the next five years, and perhaps $150 mill over the next seven years.
Peavy is owed $59 million over the next four seasons, and $63 million when the buyout of his 2012 salary is included. He’s not as durable as those four listed above, and there is some concern that his pitching mechanics will lead to more serious elbow problems.
But if the Braves want a seriously dominant ace, at a relatively affordable price, they’d best kick the tires of the Southern boy. If the Padres are seriously considering trading him, then the Braves should seriously consider making it happen. Look over his recent MRI with a fine-tooth comb. Three times.
Then, if it comes to that, if a trade can be worked out, have him undergo another MRI with Braves doctors. Have James Andrews look that baby over (Doc Andrews should be giving the Braves a bulk discount this year anyway, right?)
The answer to the Braves’ biggest pitching problem could come from not far away. A serious, dominating, intimidating ace - and from just up the road.
Diversions: The first folks who get the new CDs by Lucinda Williams (Little Honey) and The Pretenders (Break Up the Concrete, both to be released Tuesday, Sept. 7, should provide us with reviews. I saw four-star reviews of each in the new Rolling Stone. One review said it’s the best that Chrissie Hynde and her revamped band have produced in quite a while, and Lucinda’s album supposedly sounds a lot more like her seminal Car Wheels On a Gravel Road than her most recent stuff. Chrissie and Lucinda can rule my world anytime…. RS also gave 4-1/2 stars to Vol. 8 of Bob Dylan’s Bootleg Series, also out Tuesday…. It went unnoticed by the baseball world, but Hank Aaron and Barry Bonds were at the same party on Saturday, and it was right here in Atlanta. Yes, according to the AJC’s story by Richard Eldredge, the past (and always) legendary home-run king and Sir Cranium were among guests at an event to celebrate the opening of Atlanta director Tyler Perry’s new movie studio in the southwest part of the city. Oprah Winfrey, Will Smith and Louis Gossett Jr., were among the many other distinguished invited guests. Your Crusading Everyman was not…. I did, however, attend a pretty cool event at Road Atlanta that day. Petit Le Mans. Anyone who says race-car drivers aren’t athletes should consider what those guys do on that winding course in that 1,000-mile or 10-hour race….. Here’s an out-of-the-mainstream rock album I’ll strongly recommend: Self-titled CD by the L.A.-based band Low Vs Diamond. Reminds me of Interpol and Echo and the Bunnymen.
A tune to close: Saw this band Friday at The Earl. ‘Twas a stellar rock show. When they began to play this angry, roiling, perfect blast of tuneage, the place about exploded:
“THE RAT” by The Walkmen
You’ve got a nerve to be asking a favor
You’ve got a nerve to be calling my number
I know we’ve been through this before
Can’t you hear me, I’m calling out your name?
Can’t you see me, I’m pounding on your door?
You’ve got a nerve to be asking a favor
You’ve got a nerve to be calling my number
Can’t you hear me, I’m bleeding on the wall?
Can’t you see me, I’m pounding on your door?
Can’t you hear me when I’m calling out your name?
When I used to go out, I would know everyone that I saw
Now I go out alone if I go out at all
When I used to go out I’d know everyone I saw
Now I go out alone if I go out at all
When I used to go out I’d know everyone I saw
Now I go out alone if I go out at all
You’ve got a nerve to be asking a favor
You’ve got a nerve to be calling my number
I’m sure we’ve been through this before
Can’t you hear me, I’m beating on your wall?
Can’t you see me, I’m pounding on your door?
Comments
By Steve from OH
October 6, 2008 6:49 PM | Link to this
From the last blog…
BA’s Major League Transactions:
Atlanta Braves Granted free agency: OF Jason Perry Recalled: RHP Jairo Cuevas, RHP Anthony Lerew, RHP Phil Stockman, LHP Francisley Bueno, LHP Chuck James Removed from 40-man roster: RHP Vladimir Nunez, C Corky Miller, 2B Ruben Gotay
The 28-year-old Perry, a.k.a. the Tigers’ bounty for Jack Hannahan whom they dumped this spring training, received a four-game audition with Atlanta but batted just .118. He did hit a triple, though. The switch-hitting Gotay, who still is just 25, struggled in a pinch-hitting role, bating .235/.322/.343 for the Braves.
By DAP
October 6, 2008 6:52 PM | Link to this
from the last blog:
lew -The proclivities of which I speak are not grounding into 3-6-3 double plays
c’mon man, thats weak. if you really think thats all kotchman ever does, why is he on a major league baseball team.
im not trying to argue that kotchman probably will bat 2nd next year. i dont really think he will.
but thats a side note to the question i proposed to you. try not to avoid it this time. (hint: the question has nothing to do with kotchman, so no need to reference him in your answer) what qualities do you look for in a #2 hitter?
by the way, my banks are fine. thanx for asking.
By McFann Ô
October 6, 2008 6:53 PM | Link to this
Thanks for the new Blog, Chief!
I’d love it if the Braves got Peavy, but I wouldn’t want them to give up Johnson for him.
By MGL
October 6, 2008 6:59 PM | Link to this
To Frank Wren - GIT R DONE!!!
By BravesFanInRockies
October 6, 2008 7:00 PM | Link to this
KJ, Morton/Medlen, Lillibridge (the Pads aren’t happy with Greene) and another low-level pitcher for Peavy? Would that get it done? If so, do it! If not, add B. Jones.
By MiamiBrave
October 6, 2008 7:00 PM | Link to this
my kind of blog after the kind of season we had…thanks for the blog DOB
A question for you DOB, was reading Bowman’s mailbag and was disturbed (word Bowman used as well) by the section on JoJo. Did JoJo really ask two of the best mentors one could have to step aside and let him do his own thing? Could you elaborate on this? and what JoJo meant by distracting the mental process during the game I believe it said? Basically anything you can add about that situation because I found that shocking
By MiamiBrave
October 6, 2008 7:01 PM | Link to this
my kind of blog after the kind of season we had…thanks for the blog DOB
A question for you DOB, was reading Bowman’s mailbag and was disturbed (word Bowman used as well) by the section on JoJo. Did JoJo really ask two of the best mentors one could have to step aside and let him do his own thing? Could you elaborate on this? and what JoJo meant by distracting the mental process during the game I believe it said? Basically anything you can add about that situation because I found that shocking
By Josh
October 6, 2008 7:05 PM | Link to this
Thanks for the new blog DOB. There was a SI article on Peavy some time ago that made several mentions of Peavy growing up a Braves fan and did everything short of saying “Jake Peavy loves San Diego but wants to play for the Braves”. The no-trade gives the Braves an advantage, even if it’s a small one. I don’t see how Wren could pull it off without including a young, quality ML player or one of the “untouchables”, but I suppose it’s possible. My guess is that if the package doesn’t include one of the 5-star guys it’s going to take a Haren-esq bounty of 3 & 4 star prospects.
By chuckw/deadjournalist
October 6, 2008 7:10 PM | Link to this
Great column, providing a nice “what-if” diversion …
And a greater choice on “The Rat” by the Walkman. I don’t think it is too much of a stretch to say that it could be one of the top 10 indie/college/blog songs of the decade. I can’t remember if the album came out in ‘03 or ‘04, but it was one of the albums that established a high bar for the rest of the decade. The list of amazing albums from that two year period is ridiculous. From The Shins and The Stills to the Postal Service and Deathcab to Yeah Yeah Yeah and Gorillaz there are dozens of genre making albums. That doesn’t even include great release by more established artists like Beck and Ryan Adams from that same time-frame …
But I digress.
By Wayne
October 6, 2008 7:15 PM | Link to this
Are you kidding me, I would give up KJ, his brother, Medlen, Gorkys and another pitcher (Locke or Rohrbough or one of those lower prospects) to get Peavy. How many times do we get a chance to get a guy like that?
Frank, in the words of MGL, “Git ‘er done!”
Wouldn’t that be an incredible coup for the Braves, to land an ace at the beginning of the off season!
By stamper
October 6, 2008 7:21 PM | Link to this
The Walkmen are a pretty decent band… I’m getting pumped to see the Magnetic Fields show in a couple weeks! that should be entertaining.
as for the Braves… I’d love to see Peavy, Lowe, Sabathia or any other legitimate number one starter on our team next year. We need arms. stat!
however, i’m concerned as to who we’re going to pay to play Left Field for us. PLEASE LORD, don’t let it be Pat Burrell or Adam Dunn. that’s the LAST thing we need, another outfielder that can’t hit over .250.
By macdaddy
October 6, 2008 7:22 PM | Link to this
DOB, if the old guys come back (aka Glavine and Smoltz) are they most likely to return as relievers or starers. I would think that Glavine would be more valuable to the team as a lefty reliever, than a 5 inning starter.
Also, this team had looked earlier this season into acquiring young startrs they would control for several years. Do the Braves value experienced guys like Brad Penny and Ryan Dempster over young starters like Jonathan Sanchez or Ian Snell?
By David O'Brien
October 6, 2008 7:30 PM | Link to this
macdaddy, I think Smoltz would come back as a reliever, maybe a setup man. But Glavine would want to start or nothing, I’m pretty certain.
By McFann Ô
October 6, 2008 7:38 PM | Link to this
MiamiBrave—
I read that, too. Very disturbing.
How cann you basically tell two future HOF’ers to back off? That’s absurd!
[sigh]…Let’s see what’s up with the Rays…
By Deep Throat
October 6, 2008 7:56 PM | Link to this
DOB, do you think the Braves will extend Mike Gonzalez’s contract this offseason like they did with Soriano last year?
Updated list:
Good: Adam Dunn, Magglio Ordóñez, Pat Burrell, Matt Holliday.
Bad: Juan Rivera, Bobby Abreu, Raul Ibanez.
Please for the love of God Braves, don’t be cheap (especially when you have 45 million) in fixing left field. Just say no to Juan Rivera.
By f.n. hale
October 6, 2008 7:58 PM | Link to this
Great new blog. Firing up the hot stove. I was reading an article on the Tigers a couple days ago and it said they were disappointed in Renteria’s year and he probably wouldn’t be back. I wouldn’t make the move because I too think KJ is going to be really good, but do you think the Braves would bring in Edgar and move Escobar to 2nd?
By Brian
October 6, 2008 8:07 PM | Link to this
DOB- Now you got me all excited! I couldn’t think of another top pitcher I’d want on the Braves than that guy! I wouldn’t want to see KJ go but damn, that’s Jake Peavy! Does he wear #45? I’m tryin to picture him in a Brave uni.
By McFann Ô
October 6, 2008 8:08 PM | Link to this
Hey, F.N. Hale, did you get my note to you on the last blog??
6-2 Rays!! Whoo-hoo! This is fun!
Except…well, when I’m impartial, it kinda makes me sad when the home team gets eliminated. I mean, they’re in front of their home fans who are cheering them on, hoping for a rally and then…it just makes me sad.
By Najeh Davenpoop
October 6, 2008 8:10 PM | Link to this
Wow, Peavy would be an outstanding acquisition. I realize this is only a possibility and I’m not holding my breath that it will happen but damn, if they can get him it would really be worth it — much more so than the Teixeira acquisition at least.
By Steve from OH
October 6, 2008 8:15 PM | Link to this
Deep Throat:
Yes, please, please, please no Juan Rivera.
Shaun, Efrim, Braveheart, or anyone else:
Has anyone read anything about that +/- defensive rating system that Dierkes over at MLBTR has been advocating? I meant to read it but I didn’t have the time and now I can’t find it. Anyone have thoughts about it?
By Matt
October 6, 2008 8:20 PM | Link to this
DOB, do we REALLY want another candidate for Roger McDowell to run into Tommy John surgery? While on that topic, has anyone compared the number of major arm injuries the staff has sustained since McDowell took over compared with Leo’s time as PC? That would be interesting to hear.
By bruce
October 6, 2008 8:21 PM | Link to this
hopefully die-injected MRI for Peavy… I was a bit concerned how long it took to figure out Soriano this year and then have surgery… and Hudson was a surprise… seems like some new technology is needed to check out elbows. regular MRI just don’t seem to cut it…
By Total-E-Sports
October 6, 2008 8:22 PM | Link to this
For all the Latest on the MLB Playoffs make sure to check out
http://www.Total-E-Sports.blogspot.com
By Josh
October 6, 2008 8:22 PM | Link to this
Congrats to the Rays! I’m glad my geographical rooting interest is advancing
By f.n. hale
October 6, 2008 8:24 PM | Link to this
Hey, McFann, I was in Savannah for the weekend for a wedding (man what a city), and didn’t get your note. Thanks for resending. I would love to see McCann get better defensively, but I don’t have a problem with that as much as I can see him wearing down. I think he catches way too many games anyway. I hope Sammons shows he can be not too much of a dropoff so he can carry more of the load, if not I’d like to see another backup.
By Tomas
October 6, 2008 8:25 PM | Link to this
Very nice points Mr. Obrien. Now the question is which players would they give up. I definitely think, that if they’re going to give up top quality prospects, Peavy is a good reason to do it. Like you said he is plenty young, has averaged 190 innings per season, and in his short age he already has a cy young. I wouldn’t trade Heyward, Morton, or Hanson, but I would trade Schafer, Anderson, Blanco, Freedman, Cody Johnson, Todd Redmond, or Gorkys Henandez. I wouldn’t want to trade Kelly or Prado.
Maybe a Brandon Jones, Frederick Freeman, Todd Redmond, and Gregor Blanco for Jake Peavy, and the Braves would take on his full contract responsabilities. Personally I think that benefits both sides. You have to give quality to get quality.
What do you think DOB, is this trade fair?
By richbrave
October 6, 2008 8:29 PM | Link to this
DAVID O’BRIEN:
All that work isn’t a recipe for a serious and extended visit to DR. ANDREWS in the near future is it.? I mean this is an ALABAMA boy we’re talking about right.? I would want to see every test on a shoulder, arm, elbow, wrist and hand completed that can be done if this thing goes forward. Maybe even some of his contract picked up as insurance by SAN DIEGO if PEAVY goes down a la MIKE HAMPTON within say the first full season he’s in ATLANTA. Once burned, twice - a fool. But the logic and logistics are exciting, that aside.
By Tomas
October 6, 2008 8:30 PM | Link to this
And if they do get Peavy, they will only need to sign one pitcher, and who knows they’d have a better shot at CC, or Derek Lowe, AJ Burnett, and Ryan Dempster. And Obviously the power Bat will have to come from the free agent market, Pat Burrel or Adam Dunn, and resign which ever players they want like you said DOB, Hampton, Ohman, Norton, Smoltz, and Glavine.
By ncscoots
October 6, 2008 8:49 PM | Link to this
The one thing I had not previously considered re Peavy: can he and Hudson coexist? I mean, an Alabama boy and an Auburn guy? Maybe Braveheart can give us some insight here, LOL.
Although a kid from Semmes is just as likely to be an Auburn fan, I’m guessing, so that might be moot. :-)
By PatioDaddio
October 6, 2008 8:53 PM | Link to this
Would you trade JJ, Jo Jo, Boyer, Acosta and Bueno for Peavy?
How is this rotation
Peavy Free Agent Pitcher/Lowe? Hampton Morton Hanson
By richbrave
October 6, 2008 8:53 PM | Link to this
Guys, as much as GLAVINE wants it, I think I would throw him an off-season retirement party and cut the ties. I’m sure TOMMY’s convinced he can still deliver the goods. I’m not, but that said, I’m not LIBERTY and the organization. I just hope they don’t let nostalgia cloud their decision.
Now with SMOLTZ, if he says “I’ll be back in some capacity”, I would believe in his conviction and roll with it. Just sayin’.
By THB
October 6, 2008 8:56 PM | Link to this
If we’re looking into the free agent field, I think Lowe will get very, very expensive. I’m talking 17 million for 3 years. If we can snag Peavy, we should look into Oliver Perez. Just 27 years old, should command close to but less than 15 million per year, I was thinking a 4 year, 52 million deal. He would be a nice, young addition with experience. If we can snag Peavy without giving up Schafer, Heyward, or Hanson, it’s a steal. Then all we gotta do is go get Magglio! (I realize that’s probably a stretch, but getting Mags, Peavy, and O.Perez would solve just about all of our problems).
By cabravesfan
October 6, 2008 8:59 PM | Link to this
Would you trade JJ, Jo Jo, Boyer, Acosta and Bueno for Peavy?
I would not trade JJ for anyone right now- he is 22 and a future star in my opinion- too valuable to give up for anyone
By DOB
October 6, 2008 9:00 PM | Link to this
Band of Horses - Cease to Begin album
By StingerSplash
October 6, 2008 9:03 PM | Link to this
Could see Smoltz as a great late inning guy, maybe even a righty complement to lefty Gonzo at the end of a game. Glavine, as a reliever, would remind me too much of Chris Hammond. Thanks, but no. He’s a starter. If the Padres come to the Braves with a shopping list for Peavy, I will echo the words of Tom Hagen: Make the deal.
By McFann Ô
October 6, 2008 9:05 PM | Link to this
F.N. Hale—
No prob. You’re welcome.
I think he caught a few too many games as well. He missed seven straight games after getting bowled over, and he was still third in the NL in games-started by a catcher this year—he started 132, behind Kendall, who started 149, and Clint Hurdle’s BFF (Martin), who started 138. So that means McCann’s other days-off were few and far between. And in 6 of those 23 he came in to catch later on (he had some pinch-hit appearances where he didn’t catch, but that’s no big deal).
He said that this was the first year he really felt that wear-and-tear, and it did show up in his stats. He hit no homers in September. In August and September, he hit a combined .240 (12-50) with RISP after hitting .421 there in July. Yes, the downfall there began in August, after…uh……
Anyway, I think it became quite clear that he started a few too many games. I cann remember screaming for him to have days-off in late June/early July when he was slumping a bit. And I was sooo thankful that they didn’t do with him what the Mets did to Ryan Church after his concussion. Church was never the same after that—they handled that so badly, and Church’s concussion was worse than Brian’s, I believe.
OK, long post here, sorry…to get to my point: I, too, hope Sammons cann do more this year, or they need to find someone else. BUC isn’t a major problem for the Braves, but we can’t have this situation again.
Oh, uh…one more thing: I’d love for BMac to improve that D. He’s just gotta. Stolen bases got really old after the first couple of months. And I hated to see him wear down like that. I didn’t like having a “bad” feeling when he came up with RISP in August and September.
And, above, I’m not sayin’ 7/27 caused a lot of the drop-off—after that was just the time when the HR, AVG with RISP and such started to go down. But he hit .071 with RISP in March and April combined, so…
By McFann Ô
October 6, 2008 9:07 PM | Link to this
cabravesfan—
I wouldn’t trade JJ for anyone, either.
By Tomas
October 6, 2008 9:11 PM | Link to this
I read in mlbtraderumors.com that Delmon Young would be available, and want a shortstop, and a third baseman. The Twins obviously gave too much to get him, and want to get something back. Add him to the list of possible outfielders for the Braves, but I think it would require the Braves to include Yunel Escobar in that trade which I seriously doubt will happen. Ty Wigginton, Delmon Young, Matt Holliday, Aubrey Huff, and Matt Kemp.
By PatioDaddio
October 6, 2008 9:16 PM | Link to this
How is this rotation for 2010
Peavy Lowe Hudson Hanson Morton
By cabravesfan
October 6, 2008 9:21 PM | Link to this
McFann
I would love for Mac to improve the D also (you are absolutley right that he has to) but the pitchers need to do a MUCH better job holding runners on…Huddy, JJ, Smoltzie, Morton (yes they are all righties but Hampton and Glavine were not too good either)- none of them were great (or just didnt really care)- that will help Mac out a lot
By richbrave
October 6, 2008 9:21 PM | Link to this
McFANN:
Been postin’ here for a FA back-up catcher to spell McCANN. I’m with you all the way. Hey BRAVES organization. Don’t treat this as an afterthought. It’s almost as important as a big bat in my estimation. MILLER and SAMMONS - no.
By MGL
October 6, 2008 9:31 PM | Link to this
“Would you trade JJ, Jo Jo, Boyer, Acosta and Bueno for Peavy?”
It makes ZERO sense to trade our best pitcher for Peavy or anyone else. Even though Peavy is better, it is just a swap, and we would still need two more.
By McFann Ô
October 6, 2008 9:42 PM | Link to this
cabravesfan—
Oh yeah…He has to get better. 93 stolen bases is, I’m sorry, insane.
And I agree about the pitchers. They said during one of JJ’s last starts that he had the worst CS% among NL pitchers, if I remember correctly. And that was the one thing that bugged me about him was that he didn’t hold runners on very well. But he was a rookie, so he’s excused a little bit.
Hampton…I remember a game where he let some guy get a huge lead, and McCann had no chance to throw him out. I was sitting there going, “Mike! You were staring right at ‘im! How’d you not see his lead?”
What I say is that when you have a catcher who’s not that good at throwing guys out, the pitchers need to keep that in mind and help him out a little bit. It got to the point where I clapped when a pitcher threw over to first.
richbrave—
I couldn’t agree more. I’m not a huge fan of Sammons…I’m sure he’ll get better, but he didn’t quite cut it in ‘08. (Do we call ‘08 “last year”, or “this year”?)
By matt r
October 6, 2008 9:44 PM | Link to this
Peavy to ATL… sounds like DOB is trying to stir up some off-season web traffic :)
By PatioDaddio
October 6, 2008 9:50 PM | Link to this
In 2010 Peavy ….if he is acquired in a trade this winter,, Lowe…if he is the free agent signing, Hudson and Hanson could make JJ a very good number 5 starter.
By Joe
October 6, 2008 9:50 PM | Link to this
The Braves need to do whatever it takes to get Peavy!!! Also, get Lowe and a good bat in left and they will be set.
By Daybed Wagmoe
October 6, 2008 9:53 PM | Link to this
PatioDaddio — no Jurrjens in the 2010 rotation?
I’d love to see the Braves trade for Peavy as long as they don’t give up too much of their best pickins’ from the farm. (It doesn’t sound like they would, but I’m just saying.)
DOB — who, out of the Braves’ farm system, would take Escobar’s place, supposing the Braves would have to deal him in order to get a pitcher of Peavy’s or Oswalt’s ilk?
By cabravesfan
October 6, 2008 9:55 PM | Link to this
McFann
And you know the (kind of) funny thing about this? From what I remember Mac was known in high school and the minors as an outstanding defensive catcher- it was the offense that was the question mark…
Nice scouting report there:)
As for JJ- He seems to have the Greg Maddux mentality (not necessarily a bad thing!)- he doesn’t care about base runners, just runs…if they’re on, get ‘um off before they score…
By Mumia Abu-Jamal
October 6, 2008 9:59 PM | Link to this
I see Skip Caray got passed over for the broadcaster’s HOF. GOOD! The bloated gasbag was a disgrace.
Be an arrogant glutton/drunk almost your entire adult life, clean up for a couple of years after your liver fails, and all of the sudden you’re a saint. Typical idiot Atlanta fans.
I guess Jebus figures in this some witcha-way. Jebus loved a good steak, 10 highballs, and Johnny’s Hide-a -way.
By PatioDaddio
October 6, 2008 10:01 PM | Link to this
Medlen may turn out to be the best pitcher out of Hanson, JJ, and himself
By Kyle
October 6, 2008 10:01 PM | Link to this
The Rat is a great song, but do you seriously get your reviews of albums from Rolling Stone? They have just a bit of a credibility problem my friend. The Jonas Brothers latest ‘album’ got 4 stars out of 5. It was reviewed more favorably than Okkervil River’s The Stand-Ins… ummm no dice. Silliness indeed. TV on the Radio’s Dear Science might be the year’s best.
As for Jake Peavy. I say yes. No offense Kelly Johnson, but he is a stud! Tired of watching Charlie Morton, Jo-Jo-Jo-Jo-Jo, and various others get rocked. If that fails Atl can resign Glavine, trade for Maddux and Jamie Moyer. Then talk Jim Palmer and Goose Gossage out of retirement. Given the state of the economy the geezers will all need the work very soon!
By McFann Ô
October 6, 2008 10:02 PM | Link to this
WOW!! Did you see that pitch Lester used to strikeout Tex? BEAUTIFUL!!
Boy, for someone who said she’s not gonna watch the playoffs, I cann really get into this!
; ) Night, all!
By JC from UT
October 6, 2008 10:04 PM | Link to this
RICHBRAVE/MCFANN: How about Miguel Olivo to back up McCann?
By ricflair
October 6, 2008 10:06 PM | Link to this
Hey Mumia FU you jackass!!!!!!!!!!1
By NickC
October 6, 2008 10:15 PM | Link to this
Lowe will get too expensive for us, or at least for a 36 yr old pitcher who is an innings eater at sub 4 ERA. His effectiveness in getting the Dodgers to the postseason and his performance there will inflate his price beyond his actual value. I think he’ll go to one of the New York teams.
Morton and Brandon Jones (although I’m not sure exactly how much they need corner outfield help with Giles and Headley) will be good trade bait for the Padres, but the deal for Haren had 2 very good prospects and 4 good prospects. I’d be inclined to include Gorkys and Medlen too.
If we were to get Peavy, then it would make sense to go after Oliver Perez as a lefty. If he gets his head right and learns how to pitch when he’s facing a bad team then he could be very useful for us. He is represented by Scott Boras’ company, but not Boras himself, though.
That would give us a front three of Peavy, Perez and Jurrjens, with the hope that Campillo, Glavine and Hampton can be serviceable in the last two spots. That would allow us to keep Hanson down until midseason.
In terms of outfielders, obviously Manny is the #1 talent, but we won’t go for him. Ordonez is also an option, but it depends how much the Tigers want to shed salary and what prospects we have left to deal after a Peavy deal. That would leave Burrell as a right handed bat, and whether that deal is a good one will depend on the money.
If Smoltz comes back to the pen then you have him, Gonzalez, Soriano and Moylan who are all locks. I wouldn’t mind going with Acosta, James and Carlyle to fill it out. I think Chuck could be a real success in the pen if he can rediscover his mechanics.
By Tomas
October 6, 2008 10:16 PM | Link to this
The Angels have made too much errors. What happened to the Cubs and Angels, the two best teams in the season, and in the playoff they play bad defense and don’t hit.
By johnr
October 6, 2008 10:21 PM | Link to this
Bring back LEO
By richbrave
October 6, 2008 10:25 PM | Link to this
JC from UT:
Olivo looks good from a quick glance. He’s 30. Stats are nice defensively - the area MILLER and SAMMONS were both supposed to excel in. Is he a FA.? Made 2.05 mill last year. I don’t think the BRAVES should low-ball in this position. To protect McCANN, they need a reliable fill-in. IF he’s not a problem in the club-house and doesn’t expect max playing time or money sounds good. Worth a sit-down to me.
By Jimmy H.
October 6, 2008 10:29 PM | Link to this
DOB..
The Braves need to do whatever it takes to get Jake Peavy from San Diego. It’s a no-brainer to me.
By fastasballs
October 6, 2008 10:33 PM | Link to this
Great blog DOB
I’ve been hoping Wren can pull a deal for Peavy. The Padres are cutting salary & have a fairly weak farm system so the conditions are right for a Braves/Padres deal. He would wave his no trade to come to Atlanta & the Braves have a deep enough farm system to make the deal.
Nobody ever expected JS to get Hudson for a few prospects did they? Historically the Braves get their players in trades or develope them.
The best part about Peavy, well aside from his abilities, is his back loaded contract. Adding his salary would still leave the Braves around $30-$35 million to fill LF & another starter. Lowe would be well within reach with plenty to spare. Hampton as well if they want him.
A rotation of Peavy, JJ, Lowe, Hampton, Campillo/Hanson/Morton with Hudson maybe returning for September would make me think the Braves could not only compete, but win the NL EAST.
The pen should be stout as well, especially if Ohman is resigned. The Braves have tried for too many years to scoot by in the bullpen & it’s cost them. Hopefully they will ponny up the dollars for another quality arm or two.
I seriously don’t think Glavine is in the plans. If he is signed, we will know once & for all that Cox runs this team not only on the field, but the front office as well.
Smoltz deserves the opportunity to pitch next season. He’s earned it. He didn’t run off to greener pastures like Glavine & he was still very effective right up until he shut it down. Glavine wasn’t effective when he did pitch. Unlike Smoltz he requires the strike zone being extended 6 inches to even have a chance of pitching a quality start. Those days are over for him.
Besides Smoltz would most likely pitch from the pen so the rotation isn’t going to be sacrificed if he doesn’t come back & pitch well.
Even better for the Braves would be the long range rotation of a trade involving Peavy. Peavy, JJJ, Hanson, Morton, Hudson for years to come. Plenty of other power pitchers coming along if any of those were to not develope as expected.
Now who to sign for LF? That may be another area a trade plays into because the market just seems really weak to me.
By Fan
October 6, 2008 10:37 PM | Link to this
That was supposed to say Hey DOB, Band of Horses, have you heard of them and the Cease to Begin album? Thought I’d throw it out there.
By GeorgetownKid
October 6, 2008 10:39 PM | Link to this
Some folks here are listing the Braves players/prospects that they wouldn’t trade for Peavy.
I would trade anyone for Peavy. Regarding our prospects, Tommy Hanson MIGHT become as good as Peavy, but that is unlikely. Peavy is one of the 5 best pitchers in all of baseball. Is it realistic to project Hanson as being that good?
If we can get Peavy for Hanson plus a lower-level prospect, then we should grab that deal with both hands. Now, if we have to give up multiple Hanson-level prospects, that would be a different story.
But there aren’t too many deals I would turn down (within reason) in exchange for Peavy.
By mbatl
October 6, 2008 10:43 PM | Link to this
Richbrave, I looked at Olivo’s stats too… and WOW… he’s like a mini-Dave Kingman at the plate.
12 HR and 22 2B in 306 ab’s is pretty good, obviously. But, 82 K’s and 7 BB, and a .278 OBP (.275 lifetime). Last year, 123 K’s and 13 walks, and in ‘06, 103 vs. 9!
I’m not saying yea or nay (would be better than our past few BUC’s, just more expensive), just that he’s very much a slugger only… not a get ‘em on, get ‘em over kinda guy.
Agree with you on Glavine, btw. I didn’t want him in ‘08 (at the cost of a 1st round DC), and sure don’t want him taking a pitcher’s spot on the 25-man in ‘09.
By JC from UT
October 6, 2008 10:43 PM | Link to this
Michael Barrett may also be a good option to back up McCann.
As far as Peavy: We’re going to have to give up quit a bounty. I’m guessing either Schafer or Gorkys plus either Hanson Medlin or Morton, plus ? Would San Diego want Francouer if we took Giles back with Peavy? If we took back two large salaries it would mean less prospects to give up.
By cabravesfan
October 6, 2008 10:50 PM | Link to this
Some folks here are listing the Braves players/prospects that they wouldn’t trade for Peavy.
The only one I would not trade for Peavy is JJ. Would it be a risk giving up someone like Hanson or another top prospect for him? Of course but I think it is something that should be considered…that being said I would be careful that we didn’t offer too much for him
By cabravesfan
October 6, 2008 10:57 PM | Link to this
JC
Couple of issues with Giles- big contract, left handed (we DON’T need another lefty), he’s 37 years old (I would not trade a cheap 24 year old after one bad year for a 37 year old with declining skills ever), and most importantly he can veto any trade and doesn’t really want to leave Southern California (he is a San Diego native in case you did not know that)- just don’t see that happening
By Reid in EAV
October 6, 2008 11:00 PM | Link to this
I love the idea of Peavy in a Braves uni. Really. But I tell ya, after the season we’ve had, I’m much less inclined to gloss over the elbow like I might’ve been last winter. My key question is this: has Peavy had TJ surgery yet? If not, and I hate to say this, but it’s only a matter of time. TJ surgery (and its year-plus recovery time) is, these days, a rite of passage for MLB pitchers who are around for longer than a few cups of coffee. If he hasn’t had his “TJ year” yet, beware, because it’s coming.
Hate to hit such a downer note. I really do like the idea. But you know, I worry. It’s the Woody Allen in me.
By johnr
October 6, 2008 11:11 PM | Link to this
Mumia May you spend eternity listening to Tim McCarver
By Richie
October 6, 2008 11:23 PM | Link to this
I remember all those years I wanted Giles here from about 1999-2003. Pittsburgh didnt want to trade him to us and Time Warner was looking to acquire more salary. Now, with his declining skills, I definitely don’t want to see him be a 9mill dollar lead off hitter. Jermaine Dye is rumored to be available this offseason? Any thoughts?, he is a BIG BAT in the outfield we are looking for. It has been said Wren is looking to acquire the bat via trade versus the FA market
By David O'Brien
October 6, 2008 11:28 PM | Link to this
Reid, only reason I would argue with that theory is, he was on DL for strained flexor tendon in 2004. That’s usually when the elbow goes — those two injuries are more often close to each other, not four years later….
On a different note, saw a good movie Sunday: Nick & Nora’s Infinite Playlist. NOT a chick flick any more than say, Juno or Say Anything were. That kind of movie. Terrific music. Both you and your lady, girlfriend or wife will dig it.
By David O'Brien
October 6, 2008 11:30 PM | Link to this
Fan: Fine band. Love the second album even more than the first one. Saw them in Orlando last year during spring training.
Matt r: Thanks for the web traffic. What do I owe you?
By David O'Brien
October 6, 2008 11:38 PM | Link to this
How’d you like to be Jason Bay, going from Pittsburgh to a hero in the baseball nirvana that is Boston and Fenway Park? Awesome. Truly a trade that helped both teams.
And I’m happy for Kotsay. Hope he gets to make an impact in the ALCS. Made some fine plays tonight.
By Tomas
October 6, 2008 11:39 PM | Link to this
a suicide squeeze, o man that is a very bad decision. I personally hate that play, it’s too risky. Mike Sciosa should get an ear pull.What a dissapointing way to end the season. If Bobby would have done that play, the people on this blog would never forget it, the blog would collapse or something.
By David O'Brien
October 6, 2008 11:43 PM | Link to this
MiamiBrave, Jo-Jo said he listened to so many different people that he was thinking too much about all the advice when he was on the mound, instead of just pitching. I didn’t really understand why he couldn’t focus on a tip or two from a fellow lefty like Glavine, or something from Smoltz about focus and confidence or whatever, but hey, when you’re struggling, you look for reasons or excuses. And for Jo-Jo, the paralysis-by—analysis theory (in so many words) probably seemed as good a reason as any.
By Run Heap Run
October 6, 2008 11:43 PM | Link to this
Uh…sorry KJ. BUT HELL YEAH I’D TRADE HIM FOR PEAVY! *hums sweet home alabama**
Eh. Red Sox win.
What’s the over and under for number of fights the Rays and Red Sox will get in during the ALCS?
Go Rays.
Thanks for the new blog, DOB.
By BrandonC
October 6, 2008 11:45 PM | Link to this
Dear Braves front office, we’re sick and tired of below average signings/trades for the sake of saving a few dollars. It’s time to get serious this offseason, and now is the best time.
I think that a Peavy deal is well within reach for us to pull off. We have the minor league talent and for once we have the amount of money it will take to make this move and several more. Peavy would be the ultimate Brave in my opinion, and I could even see him here for more than his contract is set for. He’s a southerner and better yet, he’s a Braves fan. Wren should start the heavy negotiations ASAP. If we can pull off this kind of trade it would make us look more tempting to a guy like Lowe.
If we could pull off a Peavy deal and sign a Lowe or Burnett this rotation will look incredible and imposing.
I for one will expect some very BOLD moves this offseason. I think we are going to have to sign a LF bat rather than trade for one. If we trade for a front line starter we’ll have to dig even deeper into our organization to get a LF bat, and I don’t like the idea of depleting the farm that much in one offseason.
By David O'Brien
October 6, 2008 11:45 PM | Link to this
by the way, how ‘bout Tex letting those two fastballs go by him to end the fifth inning? He got the call on the first one, too close to take. Didn’t get the call on virtually identical next pitch, again too close to take, but he took.
By Steve from OH
October 6, 2008 11:48 PM | Link to this
DOB:
I dunno about that. While it’s a good sign that he’s lasted that long after the flexor tendon injury, the ligament can still degrade (slowly) over several years. Has Peavy’s velocity decreased at all over the last few years? That would be a strong sign that he’s headed for a UCL replacement.
Even if you told me that Peavy would have a 100% chance of having TJ next season, I’d still trade for him. Maybe not a the price of a presumably healthy Peavy, but you get my drift.
By Steve from OH
October 6, 2008 11:59 PM | Link to this
DOB, I’ll also second your thoughts on Kotsay. Stand-up, classy dude. Hope he does well, even if I’m starting to hate the BoSox more and more every year.
By Daybed Wagmoe
October 7, 2008 12:10 AM | Link to this
DOB — I didn’t see the Angels/Red Sox game, but after reading about it here and on ESPN.com, I’m in no way surprised. It seemed like Tex looked at close pitches way too often, especially in crucial points of a game (like the 5th inning at-bat you mentioned).
By uga-brave
October 7, 2008 12:10 AM | Link to this
tomas,
i gotta agree with you on the squeeze. 2-0 count 1 out runner on third. too many things can go wrong.
not a big fan of that play with the game tied in the ninth inning.
i think we are gonna see a dodgers sox world series.
By i cant take it anymore
October 7, 2008 12:11 AM | Link to this
its funny to hear “tex” and “take” in the same sentence. David, giant panda is funky. good call.
By David O'Brien
October 7, 2008 12:13 AM | Link to this
A good day: Kotsay advances to the ALCS, and I get a FedEx delivery with a box of Padrons, a box of La Gloria Cubanas, and a sampler assortment with a bunch of Gurkhas, Cohibas, Rocky Patels and a couple dozen other stogies…. ahh, just in time for the offseason.
By fastasballs
October 7, 2008 12:20 AM | Link to this
I’m happy for Kotsay, a genuine good guy. Funny I don’t feel the least bit bad for Tex. He’ll sell himself to the highest bidder this off season, score a huge contract & probably will lead the “lucky” team nowhere.
I still don’t blame JS for making the deal for him, it just didn’t work out as planned. You never know, Kotchman could have a few monster years & the Braves could trade him for a similar lot that they gave up to acquire Tex. If Freeman continues to progress he could be waiting in the wings in a few seasons.
By TheAntiMe
October 7, 2008 12:23 AM | Link to this
Jake Peavy sure is a stud to shoot for, depending on what kind of price the Padres want in return. I would say that probably no current Braves player is untouchable - outside of Brian McCann, of course.
Nothing against Frenchy but maybe he could be attractive trade bait as the Braves center-piece, along with a minor league player or two for the Padres who are a team that is more frugal than only 2 other teams I can think of off the top of my head (the Pirates and the Marlins).
By N8
October 7, 2008 12:26 AM | Link to this
DOB
“…how ‘bout Tex letting those two fastballs go by him to end the fifth inning?”
All too familiar, my man. CLASSIC Tex tonight. Horrible AB (as you mentioned - OK, you didn’t call it horrible, but I can read between the lines), followed up by a FANTASTIC defensive gem that temporarily saved the game in the 9th.
The man’s defense is not only sound, it’s consistently spectacular. His bat (and his inflated numbers), are nothing more than that. Stats and inflated numbers.
Like I said…..nothing has changed with him.
If Kotchman (who appears to be almost as good as Tex defensively), hits 15-20 HR and knocks in around 85-105 runs next year, he will be a STEAL compared to whatever somebody will be paying Tex.
Again. Different day, same tune from my sorry azz. But I just had to chuckle every time he DIDN’T come through.
I’ve been rooting for Kotsay. I’ve even been impressed (and rooting) for Furcal’s rebound after being out all year.
But I’d be lying if I said that I wasn’t rooting for the Angels to choke (with Tex leading the way), against Boston, and I’m VERY tired of Boston winning.
Now, with a post-season series under his belt, the WHOLE WORLD knows what we knew about Tex after one full year of his services……he racks up numbers and doesn’t really make the team win any more than they did before he was on the team.
By stynes
October 7, 2008 12:28 AM | Link to this
Peavy is someone I could get excited about. For all that Sabathia has going for him, just not someone that got my juices flowing. Maybe just hadn’t had much opportunity to see him with the Brewers this year like I’ve seen Peavy in years past. Not sure. In any event, Peavy would be awesome. I’m a big fan of both Peavy and Webb. I’d much rather see the Braves land one of those horses than Sheets or Lowe or some of the other names that have been tossed about. While we’re dreaming… why don’t the Braves just land them both. That’d certainly help their playoff chances next year, wouldn’t it?!
You mentioned trading KJ. I for one don’t want to see it happen but you’ve got to think with as much depth as the Braves have, something’s gotta give somewhere. The starting infield would seem to be pretty obviously to be (barring trades, injuries, or major changes) Chipper, Escobar, KJ, and Kotchman. Prado, Infante, Lillibridge are all essentially backup infielders.
I think the Braves would be happy to keep Lillibridge at AAA next year but wouldn’t hesitate to trade him if he needed to be a piece. I know the Braves like both Prado and Infante and their versatility, but can the Braves really be expected to keep them both next year? I think one of them (or KJ) will almost have to be involved in a trade if the Braves are going to secure an outfielder and a front line starter via trade.
In terms of the outfield, it’s similarly crowded. I think Francoeur is the only one for sure starting (and certainly that’s not assured). I think the Braves keep him there and pray for the best that he returns to form. After that, there are 2 more spots and a lot more than 2 players. Anderson, Blanco, Diaz, Brandon Jones, PBTBNL (power bat to be named later), and possibly even Schafer are fighting for spots. You’ve almost gotta figure CF will be either Anderson or Blanco with Schafer being a remote possibility. Power Bat seems like it would most likely be in left field. That leaves either Anderson/Blanco, Diaz, and Brandon Jones as potential backups and available for trade.
Brandon Jones seems the most likely trade candidate to me. He’s young, has potential, and he’s expendable to the Braves assuming Francoeur comes around and they get a big bat in left. Anderson/Blanco could be a reserve but maybe one of them is traded as well? Diaz seems like his trade value would be low because no one knows how the knee will hold up and I don’t think the Braves would just give away someone who has hit like Diaz had (before last year) if they think there’s a remote chance he could hit like that again. He also was pretty good pinch hitting in the past, if I remember. He could team with Norton to be a pretty lethal pinch hit combination. Francoeur (or Powerbat) would have to play CF in a pinch if you didn’t keep the non-starter of Anderson/Blanco to play center, though.
So here’s the non-pitching Roster
CatcherMcCann Sammons
InfieldChipper Escobar KJ Kotchman Prado Infante
OutfieldFrancoeur Anderson/Blanco Powerbat Diaz Norton
My $.02… Any takers?
By GeorgetownKid
October 7, 2008 12:31 AM | Link to this
Amen to those who are happy for Kotsay.
A genuinely good dude - and as a fan, it is fun to periodically see good things happen to good people in sports.
By Braveheart
October 7, 2008 12:39 AM | Link to this
Steve, go here:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=1051&position=P
Jake hasn’t lost any velocity and hasn’t dramatically altered his selection either. ……
as we’ve seen with Smoltz, the velocity is not always a telltale sign of injury …… Smoltz was actually throwing harder this season than he was 3 years ago …… but over the last three years, because of the pain he was in, Smoltz became increasingly reliant on the slider and less reliant on the fastball and splitter he loved in 2005 …..
I saw an article on Josh Beckett today saying the same kind of thing about him ….. the scouts know there is something wrong with Beckett right now because the selection is so dramatically different right now for him ….. not the velocity
By A-ville Ranger
October 7, 2008 12:43 AM | Link to this
If I thought Peavy could stay healthy I’d say pretty much whatever it takes….but.
Even before his elbow injury I was wary of his mechanics.Just watching him throw makes my old arm ache.
By Kentavo
October 7, 2008 12:50 AM | Link to this
And the two winning-est teams in MLB bite the dust in the first round.
Very Braves-esque, don’t you think?
So, that should take the heat off the Bravos a little bit for the folks who like to bash the team’s poor playoff performances (except for ‘95!!!)
Also interesting are the number of marquee free agents that have been bounced from the playoffs, inlcuding Tex, C.C., Sheets and Dempster. Does that make them less likely to sign with their current teams as the current teams couldn’t get ‘r done?
By TheAntiMe
October 7, 2008 1:16 AM | Link to this
“If Kotchman (who appears to be almost as good as Tex defensively), hits 15-20 HR and knocks in around 85-105 runs next year, he will be a STEAL compared to whatever somebody will be paying Tex.” - N8
I totally agree, N8, and I expect that Casey Kotchman will show a little more offensively next season. I think he will benefit by being able to begin a fresh season with the Braves right from the start. (Sorry, if that last sentence is a little redundant.) Also, he will have had a chance to have seen a few of the NL pitchers.
There is no doubt that Kotchman is one of the best 1B in the game. (Even though I was hoping for Connor Jackson at the time.)
You should have seen all of the comments by ticked-off Angels fans on the ESPN message board after the trade!
To paraphrase, most of the comments were, “I can’t beleive we traded Casey Kotchman. He has really turned into such a good player. We traded away a Gold Glove 1B. He’s the best defensive 1B in the league!”
I tried to assure them that they were not only getting a very good hitter (believe it or not but he did have a .467 AVG in the series), but that Mark Teixeira was also a Gold Glove 1B who would make some very nice defensive plays for the Halos.
I’m afraid most of them were still depressed but probably not half as depressed as they are right now. As Dennis Leary would say to them, “Too bad. Life sux, buy a helmet!”
By David O'Brien
October 7, 2008 1:16 AM | Link to this
I think the Braves would be happy to keep Lillibridge at AAA next year but wouldn’t hesitate to trade him if he needed to be a piece.Stynes
And for what it’s worth: In three games against S. Diego, Lillibridge went 5-for-12 with two doubles, a homer and three RBI.
By stephen
October 7, 2008 1:24 AM | Link to this
dave…i know you’re a big cigar smoker…ever get into pipe smoking?
By KC
October 7, 2008 1:29 AM | Link to this
I’d give my left nut to see Peavy in a Braves uni. Seriously.
How bout we deal for Peavy, sign Lowe, add a big bat, and call it a winter?! Works for me.
By Explicit
October 7, 2008 1:42 AM | Link to this
I really like the idea of Peavy coming to the Braves. As Braves fans we should all know that you can never have too much good pitching.
However the elbow question especially with what has happened to Smoltz, Hudson, Glavine and Gonzalez over the past couple of years scares me.
Initial medical exams of Gaonzalez’s elbow didn’t show any damage either and we all know how that turned out. He got Avery’d.
As for trading Kelly Johnson the streak at the end of the year gave him some hollow #’s and if he gets traded this off-season to improve another part of the club then I have no problems turning it over to Prado.
Prado is a ball player. He plays the game the right way and everytime he showed that power to the gaps it seemed like good things happened for the Braves.
Prado has earned a shot at starting but even if Johnson stays Prado may still start alot of games for us because of his versatility and Chippers injury woes.
By Explicit
October 7, 2008 1:42 AM | Link to this
I really like the idea of Peavy coming to the Braves. As Braves fans we should all know that you can never have too much good pitching.
However the elbow question especially with what has happened to Smoltz, Hudson, Glavine and Gonzalez over the past couple of years scares me.
Initial medical exams of Gaonzalez’s elbow didn’t show any damage either and we all know how that turned out. He got Avery’d.
As for trading Kelly Johnson the streak at the end of the year gave him some hollow #’s and if he gets traded this off-season to improve another part of the club then I have no problems turning it over to Prado.
Prado is a ball player. He plays the game the right way and everytime he showed that power to the gaps it seemed like good things happened for the Braves.
Prado has earned a shot at starting but even if Johnson stays Prado may still start alot of games for us because of his versatility and Chippers injury woes.
By Wayne
October 7, 2008 1:43 AM | Link to this
I have always been a Lillibridge fan, hoping he will become the player we might envision him as being. Problem is, he is still an unknown. I just think we will probably trade him, and then years out talk about how we wished we had kept him.
I also think that Diaz and Norton would both serve similar roles on a 2009 Braves squad. With the 12 man pitching staff, I am not sure the Braves can afford both, unless Schafer impresses to a point of being a 158-162 game a year player, and I don’t see that happening in his first year.
Count em up: 8 starters, the backup catcher, and that leaves 4 positions remaining. With Chipper at third, you must have TWO utility infielders, with all the games he will probably miss. Again, it is still early, and lots will change, but I just don’t see the Braves having the luxury of carrying two uber pinch hitters with somewhat limited defensive assets. That would leave you with no other backup outfielder, besides Diaz and Norton. Ain’t happening, unless something else drastic happens.
What say ye, late nighters?
By TheAntiMe
October 7, 2008 1:49 AM | Link to this
See you folks later. I just happened to notice a sort of interesting TV program coming on soon - Poker After Dark.
That definitely sounds pretty interesting to me. I wonder what Dennis Leary would have to say about that one.
By TennesseePaul
October 7, 2008 1:54 AM | Link to this
I’d hold on to my left nut, but I’d still love to see Peavy in Atlanta. However, I’ll believe it when I see it. The Padres can get young and afford Peavy at the same time. Gotta think Hoffman will retire eventually. And Giles shouldn’t be around mush longer either.
By spotts
October 7, 2008 1:54 AM | Link to this
Anybody - what happens to a player’s salary when they’re out for the season or most of it? Is that included in payroll? I think I’ve heard before that insurance covers it? Seems like a big waste if $10 million or so is on the payroll for Tim Hudson when we’re hardly getting anything out of it.
By Wayne
October 7, 2008 2:06 AM | Link to this
spotts I don’t profess to have the perfect answer, but oft times there is insurance for a player in the situation that Hudson is in. Due to the way the Braves hold their cards close to their chest, it is hard to get a good read on if or how much insurance covers.
To be honest, that is probably a good thing. The Braves would want to keep others (competing teams and agents) from knowing exactly what they have to spend.
The Braves may very well have factored in some insurance in their plans for next years spending.
Hope this helps.
By Wayne
October 7, 2008 2:22 AM | Link to this
10-Paul How ya been? One possible reason the Pads might be willing to deal is that trading Peavy is a huge opportunity for them to do a serious reload of their prospects. I don’t know if that is their intentions, but if it is, then we might have what they are looking for.
Everybody is kinda psyched about the prospects of getting Lowe, but personally, I think his price tag will be too high.
I would expect someone more like Wolf, Byrd, Garland, or Penny, especially if we are able to get a decent rotation guy in trade.
By ccrider
October 7, 2008 2:58 AM | Link to this
My take on the off season: Trade K. Johnson, G. Hernandez, T. Flowers, B. Lillibridge, B. Jones, J.J. Reyes and either Morton or Redmond or S. Diamond for Peavy. Sign B. Sheets( I know the worries about injuries, but the rest of the teams will be chasing the Lowe’s, Burnett’s etc. and a 3 year deal would not be a long term risk) 3 years $45 Mil, Sign R. Ibanez 2 yrs. $24 mil.( a lefty yes, but one that hits lefties for power and average and is consistent), trade Travis Jones and Brandon Hicks for Delmon Young. Sign Glavine , Hampton and Smoltz to $4 to $5 million contracts with incentive clauses, sign Edgar Renteria as a backup and/or competition at 2nd with Prado( If he can adjust to 2nd), sign a vet righthanded hitting catcher Henry Blanco? Lineup: Prado .5, Escobar .5, Chipper 11, Ibanez 12, McCann 3.5, Francouer 2, Kotchman 2, Schafer .5 Total $32 mil Bench: Infante 2, Renteria $3, Norton 1.5, H. Blanco 1.5, Young .5 = Total $8.5 All Position Players $40.5 mill Rotation Peavy $8, Sheets $15, Hampton $5, Jurjjens .5, Glavine $5 Rotation + Hudson minus insurance payment $6 = Total 39.5 Bullpen: Smoltz $5, Gonzalez $3, Soriano $6, Moylan $.5, Ohman $2.5, Campillo $.5, Acosta $.5 Total $18 Mil Total Payroll $98 Mil We would have Campillo, Hanson, Medlin and either Morton or Redmond in case of injury to Starters. We would have J. Julio, Marek, Stockman, L. Valdez in case of injury to bullpen. Josh Anderson, G. Blanco, D. Hernandez, S. Thorman and C. Sammons in the minor in case of injuries.
By TheAntiMe
October 7, 2008 3:14 AM | Link to this
Wow guys, I was just reading where Jimmy Rollins was patting himself on the back for his 1st inning home run on Sunday in the Phillies win to close out the Brewers.
“That took a lot of pressure off of us,” Rollins said of his home run. “We were up 1-0, regardless, no matter how the top of the first ended. On the other side, of course, it’s going to put a little more pressure on you because their guys are thinking, ‘OK, well, we got to answer back.’”
What a conceited jerk. If I were him I would be praising my teammate Pat Burrell for hitting 2 homers and driving in 4 of the Phillies 6 runs in that series-clinching win.
I’m surely not a Dodgers fan but you can bet I’ll be pulling for the Dodgers to whip Rollins and the Phillies in the NLCS.
By GermanBravesFan
October 7, 2008 3:28 AM | Link to this
Trading for Peavy would be great!! Let’s see if this will really be a possibility. If so, then go for it!!
DOB: how much do you think Lowe will realistically be asking for this winter? Would the Braves be able to afford both, Peavy and Lowe AND still have money left to sign an outfielder? Also, a while back you threw around the idea of Rafal Furcal possibly considering a return to the Braves - do you still believe this is a possibility? I guess the Braves could move Kelly Johnson to LF, Escobar to 2B and F******* at SS… Just an idea.
How about this rotation for 2010: Peavy, Lowe, Hudson, Jurrjens, Morton ?
Gotta love the offseason. Time to dream a little bit and see what really materializes.
By Jack G
October 7, 2008 3:31 AM | Link to this
IF the Braves get Peavy, how long do you think it will take for Roger to screw up his delivery and his health???? To repeat myself, it dosent really matter what they do personel wise. With Cox and staff returning 2009 will be a repeat of 2008.
By scottbravesfan
October 7, 2008 3:35 AM | Link to this
Get Peavy NOW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
By Coach (Skip will be missed)
October 7, 2008 3:59 AM | Link to this
O’Brien, you just wanted an argument. well, you got one and here it is.
I think Peavy’s elbow is about to explode. Bad mechanics combined with his max effort, not to mention the 26 games he missed just this past season due to a tender elbow with just 1260 innings under his belt should be a clue. Did I mention the shoulder issues he had in 06 and 07?
Look, we all know that Jake Peavy is a great pitcher. What 99.99 percent of the people who read this blog don’t know is, Peavy is another Hampton about to happen. Whether it’s 09 or 2010, Peavy will end up having T.J surgery. I’m making the prediction and you read it here first.
Besides, The Padres won’t trade their ACE without first asking for the damn farm and the Braves are not interested in trading anymore top prospects.
Kevin Towers
By Bravo Nam
October 7, 2008 4:36 AM | Link to this
DOB
Greatly enjoyed reading your blog write-up on Peavy…had similar thoughts about him being a good fit for the Braves. I didn’t know though about his health concerns, and fully agree, that he’d need to be thoroughly checked out before going ahead with a trade. It would be devastating for the Braves if Peavy went down long-term after a trade, coz it would gut the confidence of the team and its fans, in addition to losing some top prospects, and committing to some serious dollars for three years,
By Coach Is A Blowhard
October 7, 2008 4:50 AM | Link to this
I’m making the prediction and you read it here first.Coach
what a blowhard. We’ve been talking about the possibility of that happening all day at least. Go back to your basement coachie-poo.If you throw enough crap at the wall once in awhile a piece will stick and if you brag loud enough about that one event I guess you hope everybody will forget about the other 90% of the time when you were wrong?Don’t count on that lil dude
By ccrider
October 7, 2008 5:25 AM | Link to this
GOOD GRIEF!!!! Coach and all the other knucleheads on this blog. Every Pitcher that is a NO.1 or NO.2 pitcher could be predicted to blowout his arm because of all the innings pitched. Unless, the teams are going to offer you a money back guarantee, who do you think you going to sign or trade for? Oh, let me guess: Cole Hamels, Tim Lincecum, Matt Cain, Chad Billingsly, Fausto Carmona, Felix Hernandez etc. You know the cheap, haven’t been in the big leagues long, up and coming star that every team wants to trade away. If, the pitcher is great and established he either will stand a chance of arm problems or already has had arm problems. THERE ARE NO GUARANTEES OR CRYING IN BASEBALL!
By ncscoots
October 7, 2008 6:32 AM | Link to this
Truth be known, I’d probably take Peavy even if it were guaranteed that he would miss one year of that current contract with TJ. As long as it wasn’t 2009, LOL. 2010, Hudson is back, Jurrjens has another year of experience under his belt, the young stud pitching is one year closer to ready, and the loss of a Peavy could be somewhat absorbed.
One other pitching note: Anthony Lerew. He’s always forgotten here, because he’s been off the radar, but he bears watching in winter ball this year. If he’s all the way back by ST, he could be the spring surprise.
I know the Braves need some vets to head up the rotation, but, brother, there are going to be some live young arms (Jurrjens, Morton, Reyes, Lerew, Hanson, et al) in camp.
By Bernie
October 7, 2008 7:32 AM | Link to this
Let’s trade Shurholtz, Wren and Cox to the Padres to get Peavy. Surely they would give him up then. Maybe then we cuold get some kind of front office personel that would care about the Braves organiztion and won’t give up on the Braves like the front office did this year.
By TK
October 7, 2008 7:35 AM | Link to this
DOB…I heard the Braves are talking to the O’s about Nick Markakis. If the Braves were to trade Kelly. I wonder if they would also look at Roberts (the O’s may want to get rid of his $$$ contract).
By matlanta
October 7, 2008 8:02 AM | Link to this
I think Martin Prado is a ready, defensively and offensively, to fill Kelly Johnson’s shoes if Johnson is traded.
I really hope the Braves go after Peavy. I’ve been wanting him to pitch in Atlanta for years, long before he won his Cy Young Award. If it’s prospects we’re giving up I’m fine with that; as so many people on blogs and message boards say, prospects are just that: prospects. Sometimes dey ain’t no tellin’ what you’ll get outta them in the major leagues.
By richbrave
October 7, 2008 8:15 AM | Link to this
GermanBravesFan:
Your 3:28 a.m. Love that starting rotation for ‘10. Bring it on. First dreamin’ list I’ve completely agreed with.
By Kelley
October 7, 2008 8:59 AM | Link to this
You had me at trade Kelly Johnson.
Sorry, just not a big Kelly Johnson fan.
YES, get Peavy, that’s kind of a no brainer. His salary, in comparison to others, is really not that bad. Just have to pray that the injury bug from this season does not plague us in 09.
By Original Jon
October 7, 2008 9:04 AM | Link to this
Hey Dave, I would love to have Peavy on the team, that would be one of the biggest offseason acquisitions of all time. But the only thing that concerns me is his violent mechanics, have you ever seen a break down of his mechanics? They are awful, absolutely awful. But, like you said, he has averaged over 190 innings, so if we could get a trade done, I would certainly hope they do it. We could then trade for a bat and use the left over money to sign Lowe, heck we might have even enough to sign Sabathia.
Imagine that rotation. Peavy, Sabathia, Jurrjens, Hampton and Morton. With smoltz in the pen as setup man.
By Hoosier Aaron
October 7, 2008 9:05 AM | Link to this
In the Tony Pena, Jr deal with the Royals we received a pitcher named Erik Cordier who just had Tommy John.
I think he was a pretty highly regarded prospect for the Royals.
I saw his stats at Rome. Is this kid okay? I’m sure someone saw him pitch at Rome. Is he making progress?
By GermanBravesFan
October 7, 2008 9:08 AM | Link to this
RICHBRAVE: Would you substitue Oswalt for Peavy? (IF Oswalt was available)
What outfielder would you target that could REALLY make a splash? I had brought up the name Manny Ramirez knowing very well that some people will immediately jump me. However, can Manny be controlled in a locker room run by Bobby Cox? Or is he a guy who just cannot be helped?
Is there anybody else out there who would be a HUGE addition in regards to position players?
As I said earlier, it is fun to dream… :-)
By Jill
October 7, 2008 9:11 AM | Link to this
Cy Young wants to pitch for the Braves. Oh hell, Dave is getting stupid after every season. Koko Lulu wants to play for the Braves. He has a lifetime batting average of 7.000, he has 8423 home runs in two years and 238844 RBI. He also has 8032 no hitters and 74323223443 strikeouts in just three years of pitching. The Braves can use him to avoid dead last in the division for next year.
By N8
October 7, 2008 9:11 AM | Link to this
TheAntiMe
““Too bad. Life sux, buy a helmet!””
LOVE that line from Leary. I use it often.
As for Tex/Kotchman. Like has been said by MANY on here. In a perfect world where money is flowing like the chocolate river in Willy Wanka’s factory, keeping Tex would have been a no-brainer.
He’s a guy that you like to have on your team for 162 games, but must have better clutch hitters around him. But if you are a team that might not be able to afford more than 2 big-time sluggers (in our case - Chipper being the other), Tex is NOT the guy I want on my team.
On the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and yes even the Angels, he’s a nice addition to an already talented (and expensive) lineup.
But for us (and our 90-100 million dollar payroll), a guy like Kotchman (or as you mentioned, Conor Jackson), is a better “fit” into our budget.
By Dadgum
October 7, 2008 9:31 AM | Link to this
I have been saying for over a year now on the various blogs that the Braves simply don’t have the quality pitching to seriously contend. Reason? Age. Unfortunately time took it’s toll this year. Ah, yes, even with Smoltz,Glavine, and Hudson (pre-injuries) I was saying that. Baseball leaves all of us at some point. Now I’m not saying the aforementioned are done.
Let’s assume Hudson won’t be back in 2009. Smoltz’s experience and talent can be used mightily in the pen especially during a playoff run. Glavine could be used as a #4-5 guy in the rotation in a send-off year.
While Morton and Jurrjens should definitely be in teh rotation that leaves 2 slots at the top of the rotation the Braves must trade for or sign if they can be considered “legit”.
It is doubtful, very doubtful, Kelly Johnson will be dealt to the Padres. The last 2nd sacker we sent there didn’t fare too well. No, the Padres will want better young talent in return that they can groom and you can bet your last dollar you own that the Braves will have to give up a top prospect pitcher among others like a Lillibridge (who is very expendable in my opinion).
Rock on……..Go Jackets!!!!
By crap-wheelie
October 7, 2008 9:35 AM | Link to this
DOB:
The following comment on ESPN.com caught my eye this morning:
And so the best team in baseball is once again going home. History has shown that supreme prowess in the regular season doesn’t always translate into titles. Since 1990, only the 1998 Yankees and 2007 Red Sox finished with the best record in baseball and won the World Series. Now you can add the 2008 Angels to the list of those who came up short.
Doesn’t this reveal that there is something terribly wrong with MLB’s playoff structure? How many other major sports are so out of balance in the postseason?
MLB needs to find a way to give the best regular season teams an advantage in the playoffs, a bye or something. This is ridiculous. Wild card teams need a tougher road to the Series. Maybe they shouldn’t get any games on their home field. Period. Something needs to be done about this.
By Steve from OH
October 7, 2008 9:39 AM | Link to this
Braveheart, thanks for that. Didn’t realize fangraphs kept those sorts of things. In fairness, Smoltz’s and Beckett’s injuries this season were different (shoulder and oblique, if that’s what you were talking about). I was just reading through some comments by Dr. Jobe and a few papers and that’s the general impression I got about TJ. Ligament degrades over a few years. But that’s a good sign on Peavy.
Coach, read a bit about TJ (or UCL replacement), if you will. I’d still take Peavy even if he had TJ next season. Would you? It’s not really the death sentence it used to be…If his elbow goes, it goes. No one would be surprised. I still kinda expect it. That’s something for the FO to take into consideration for a possible deal (which will be hard to do. But it’s fun to speculate) But I seriously doubt he’s a “Hampton waiting to happen.”
Hoosier Aaron:
I’ve never seen Cordier pitch, but from what I’ve read he’s had a bit of a tough time coming back from his surgery this season. Pre-TJ, his fastball was in the high 90’s, I think. In fact, just read this, a pre-TJ scouting report on him.
By Original Jon
October 7, 2008 9:51 AM | Link to this
Jill Give it up already. It isnt funny.
By Tim Scott
October 7, 2008 10:05 AM | Link to this
ITS GOOD TO DREAM BUT PEAVY IS WAY TO YOUNG I AM PRETTY SURE ITS STANDARD PROCEDURE THAT WE CAN’T SIGN A PITCHER UNLESS HE’S A LEAST 40. WAIT WE CAN LOOK AT WHO SCOTT BORAS HAS AVAILABLE GET HIM FOR 6 MONTHS TO A YR SEND AWAY ALL OUR TOP PROSPECTS AND THEN TRADE HIM AWAY FOR NOTHING IN RETURN.
By Renegator
October 7, 2008 10:05 AM | Link to this
DOB
Did you see the bad news about Havana Sandwich Shop?
By McFann Ô
October 7, 2008 10:08 AM | Link to this
cabravesfan—
How’d I miss your last post last night? Huh…sorry about that. Here’s my reply:
He was pretty good with the D before he came up here. We found some old newspapers from 2004 a few months ago, and there was a little article about McCann. One part said, and I quote:
“More importantly, he became a solid catcher who threw out more than 30 percent of would-be base stealers.
‘Brian was drafted as high because of his bat’ Braves director of player personnel Dayton Moore said of the second-round pick in 2002. ‘But he’s really improved behind the plate. His footwork is so much better.’” —Guy Curtright, AJC 2004
And I remember when he first came up, he said the speed of the game took him by surprise.
But yeah, he never hit in the .300’s in the minors. He hit .290 in ‘03, but that was his highest number. But the one thing he did in the minors that he continues to do in the Majors is hit doubles!
I love doubles.
Where cann I go to read scouting reports? Just kinda curious.
Richbrave—
I agree with you on Olivo. If he’s an OK clubhouse guy and doesn’t want a whole lot of money (if he’s a FA), then he might be worth a look. But I don’t know.
And I’m very happy for Kotsay, too. It was sad to see such a good guy go, but it’s nice to see him getting this far.
By David O'Brien
October 7, 2008 10:13 AM | Link to this
Crap-wheelie: There isn’t an easy answer to that “problem,” if it is one. I’ve always said wild cards have an inherent advantage in that they are usually forced to play hard until the last day of the season, instead of using the last week to get their rotations in order for the postseason and cruising through the last week or two (or much more, in some cases) of the regular season.
I think the earlier that a team clinches a playoff berth, the more that becomes a problem, that going into the playoffs too casual sort of thing. But again, no easy answers to have you “reward” the team with best regular-season record.
By SP
October 7, 2008 10:17 AM | Link to this
DOB,
Thanks for the thorough blog. I think that’s a fair assessment of Peavy and I agree the Braves have the assets to put together a fair package for him. I couldn’t help think that a nearly identical blog could’ve been written for another SP who’s name has been bandied about here:
31 years old, top 5 in Cy voting 5 times, avg’d 203 IP and 167 K’s over 8 full seasons, and under contract through 2011. What’s more? He’s a “good ol’ southern boy” from Weir, MS (about the same 5 hr. drive from Atlanta as Semmes, AL).
This is, of course, is Roy Oswalt, and when you count his 2012 team option at $16M ($2M buyout) he’s owed $61M over the next 4 seasons. Again, not much different than the $63M owed to Peavy over the same time period (incl. his buyout).
Though he’s a few years older, he’s shown better durability than Peavy and I’d imagine he’d consider waiving that no-trade for a chance to pitch for the Braves (there were some grumblings out of Houston last year that Oswalt wasn’t seeing eye-to-eye with Ed Wade and Cecil Cooper).
I’d put Oswalt in that select group of 8-10 bonafide aces you mentioned. He struggled early on last year but finished with a 2.24 second-half ERA to put his overall numbers nearly in line with is career numbers. So I ask, who would you be more keen to go after? And did the blog focus on Peavy simply because the Padres are more likely to unload/retool for salary reasons?
By DAP
October 7, 2008 10:18 AM | Link to this
i think a back up catcher should probably be our last priority, but olivo would be prtty good. i also would like to get greg zaun or david ross, and i think lo duca would make a pretty nice backup.
By urnuts
October 7, 2008 10:20 AM | Link to this
are you guys kidding me… Keep kelly johnson over peavy. If there was even a chance the padres would trade peavy for johnson the braves would be bonkers not to do it. Hell throw in yunel as well and maybe the pads would give us young as well…
I don’t belive for a minute that the pads aould send peacy out for anything less than top notch minor leaguers and a major league bat….
By Lew
October 7, 2008 10:24 AM | Link to this
CCRider-Sheets? Dude, what part of him missing almost all of September and the playoffs due to “elbow stiffness” do you not understand? This Dude, with or without his terrible injury history, is a prime candidate for TJ surgery. Every one of the Braves’ pitchers who had the surgery started with forearm stiffness. Sheets is one person who may not even attract attention as a free agent (or shouldn’t anyway) because of this condition.
Yes, you COULD possibly predict injury for any pitcher, but to sign one having this specific problem makes no sense whatsoever-especially after the season we all just endured. Dude, Thought you had more sense than that.
By richbrave
October 7, 2008 10:27 AM | Link to this
GermanBravesFan:
Sorry. Been doing some contrarian investing trying to get a little traction in this big bear market. Tough. But if I can make it here, I can make it anywhere to cop a NY slogan. Gotta’ run.
By DAP
October 7, 2008 10:28 AM | Link to this
SP i think you touched on the big difference between peavy and oswalt. oswalt plays for the astros, who have no need to cut payrole or rebuild. they have alot of money, and dont need to to unload salary, ect. the astros really have no reason to even think about trading oswalt. they were competitive in ‘08, and will be in ‘09 as well. the padres on the other hand…well they need to rebuild.
By Fred
October 7, 2008 10:33 AM | Link to this
I’m having a hard time entertaining this notion.
The Braves are so far removed from being a playoff team and you are talking about giving up a chunk of the farm system for Peavy? Come on - we are like 3 starters 2 relievers, 2 outfielders and a bench away from being a contender.
Folks need to get the notion that 1991 can strike again. IT WON’T WITH THE CURRENT TEAM. That ‘91 team was close enough to being a contender that a couple on field additions (Bream & Pendleton) and one huge one in the front office did the job (in fact, the base of the starting rotation - Smoltz, Avery & Glavine - that year was already in tact).
Face it folks, the Braves had the greatest run in MLB history with their 14 straight titles, and it will stay that way for quite a few more years since the Yankees streak was snapped this year.
Let nature take it’s course and rebuild the franchise, not mortgage the franchise for ONE pitcher.
By terry
October 7, 2008 10:35 AM | Link to this
By all means include Kelly in a possible trade for Peavy(or anyone else for that matter). He is a good hitter but he is no 2nd baseman. Pitching and defense win games, and defense starts up the middle. We must have a second baseman who can go to his right, and one who keeps his head in the game would also be a plus. Kelly does neither.
By MGL
October 7, 2008 10:36 AM | Link to this
Trade candidates for Peavy from ML or near ML Players:
Outfield: B Jones, Blanco, Diaz, Anderson
Infield: Littlebridge
Catcher: Sammons
Starting pitching: Campillo, Morton, Reyes
Relief Pitching: Carlyle, Bennett, Acosta
I think we could give up a selection of the above without doing serious damage.
Does anyone know what the Padres need? I have read: SS, middle reief, and I assume that if they give up Peavy, SP
By Francoeur-Royals '08
October 7, 2008 10:37 AM | Link to this
The Braves need a good left-handed relief pitcher, correct? Mark Bowman listed that as one of the Braves’ offseason needs.
Jeff Francoeur for Ron Mahay.
Think about it. Mahay was a Brave in 2007. Mahay would be on essentially an affordable one year deal if traded this offseason. And the Braves could finally fulfill Francoeur’s destiny of being a Kansas City Royal. They don’t care about no stinkin’ OBP over in that organization.
The Braves aren’t going to give Brian Fuentes the money or Will Ohman the years. This fills a need and is addition by subtraction.
By JC from UT
October 7, 2008 10:37 AM | Link to this
DOB: You’re the GM, what package do put together and offer San Diego?
By Braveheart
October 7, 2008 10:37 AM | Link to this
Steve, Beckett did have a visit with Dr. James Andrews at the end of August because his elbow was barking ………. it checked out fine but, still, it’s kind of alarming for someone to have to visit him ….. miss some time and then have a different selection when he gets back …….. for the sake of baseball, it better be just an oblique issue and not his golden arm
As for Jake, I say trade for him even if he blows the elbow out eventually ……. like Scoots said, it better be healthy through 2009 or 2010 …….. but if it blows, it blows …… like Smoltz, a blown out elbow may just be a pit stop that has to be made a time or two in his career …….
Jake is a thick legged, country strong dude …… just treat it like a long term investment, bring the dude back home into the Braves family and know you have a really good arm for the next decade ……
he strikes me as someone who would take a hometown discount to stay or come here ….. he is already on the record as saying he only wants to be in the NL ….. that kind of ‘tude doesn’t strike me as someone who wants to be filthy rich ……
and if you look at Jake’s contract, it seems like it is right in that Hudson/Smoltz range that the Braves seem to deem the ideal contract for a top of the rotation guy
By Shaun
October 7, 2008 10:53 AM | Link to this
DOB and Crap-wheelie, I seriously doubt that you would find anything conclusive that shows the earlier a team clinches, the better or worse off their playoff chances. I would think you can find a fair number of examples on both sides.
I agree with DOB, there is no easy way to “reward” regular season success in the post-season. And how far should rewarding regular season success go without making the playoff uninteresting or pointless? I mean, they could just give a championship trophy to the best regular season team, but a lot of us think playoffs are interesting. And playoffs are profitable (perhaps because they are interesting).
As long as a league and its fans want playoffs, there is always going to be a risk that inferior teams will beat better teams. That’s the nature of the beast.
By Fred
October 7, 2008 10:59 AM | Link to this
I also get a laugh from everybody out there in fantasy land that somehow think that a collection of guys WE DON’T WANT would be players the Padres WOULD WANT.
Now then, if Wren is ready to include Francoeur, the Padres might perk up and take the chance, but why does anybody think a collection of Lillibridge, Reyes, Sammons, Blanco, Bennett, Acosta, etc. would entice the Padres.
Yes, Peavy is from Alabama - great. But if he REALLY wanted to be a Brave, how come we didn’t pursue him harder or vice versa when he was a free agent?
I am a life long Braves fan, but refuse to believe in Indian Elixur (no pun intended) as a quick fix remedy. The current team sucks (hey, I lived thru 20 years of sucking in the 70’s & 80’s - I realize it comes with the territory) and adding an staff ace isn’t fixing it.
I would just like anybody out there that thinks this (trading prospects - true prospects) is a good idea to show one example of a team in recent baseball history that added a staff ace to a team that was as bad (at least record wise) as the Braves are, and made the playoffs. You won’t fine one.
I hate to rain on everybody’s parade on this, but I was born, raised and have always lived in Atlanta and love the Braves now just as much as ever, but folks, you need to quit believing being the GM of a MLB team is the same as the GM of a fantasy league team where fleecing other owners comes just a LITTLE easier.
By GermanBravesFan
October 7, 2008 11:02 AM | Link to this
FRED,
Relax… If you had read more carefully, you would have noticed that the Braves are unlikely to trade any of their top prospects…
DOB: which outfielders are available as free agents that would be a good fit for the Braves - both financially and athletically?
By Efrim
October 7, 2008 11:02 AM | Link to this
Considering what the Mariners and D-Backs had to give up to get Erik Bedard and Dan Haren, I seriously doubt that a package of anything less than Kelly Johnson and two top prospects would get it done. I mean, the Padres know who the Braves top 2 or 3 prospects are. I have to think that they will want Heyward or Hanson or there is no deal. Maybe I am wrong and the likes of Kris Medlen and Gorkys Hernandez could get it done, but you usually always have to include a top 20 MLB prospect in one of these deals, right? And one that is ready to contribute. Maybe Wren includes Hanson in the deal.
By DAP
October 7, 2008 11:03 AM | Link to this
there is always going to be a risk that inferior teams will beat better teams.
but if one team beats another, arent they a better team? they are that day.
By Doug B
October 7, 2008 11:06 AM | Link to this
This story felt like an enthusiastic sports report’s tease. Attempting to be the first with the story, it turned out to be full of possibilities instead of probabilities.
It also doesn’t mention how the Braves run which was once characterized by sound pitching has failed to bring out the needed characteristics of quality pitching. The young arms have not blossomed into pitchers. And Tim Hudson even lost the winning edge appearing to more interested in playing games in the dugout than staying focused on the field. His consistency disappeared.
I am afraid that the Braves will tinker too much with Peavy and ruin him instead of enlightening him.
By DAP
October 7, 2008 11:12 AM | Link to this
fred * But if he REALLY wanted to be a Brave, how come we didn’t pursue him harder or vice versa when he was a free agent?*
i thought the padres locked him up longterm before he reached free agency.
i dont think anybody here is expecting to get peavy for nothing, but its the kind of situation that tends to favor us. the padres are dumping salary, rebuilding, ect. in other words, they would probably take a bunch of players that MIGHT be good, where we will be getting one who IS good. thats the way trades work sometimes. the rebuilding team trades thier best assests to teams for multiple players, hoping some of those players will help them win in the future. so, to think the pads might take kelly johnson (hate to see him go) brandon jones, and two minor league pitchers isnt that much of a stretch.
this team is pretty bad right now, but like wren said, with the $45mil we have to spend, and all the prospects we have to trade, we can add enough to this team to make it competitive. i dont think we are really THAT bad.
By Efrim
October 7, 2008 11:15 AM | Link to this
Not sure if anyone posted this already but here is something from Buster Olney’s blog today:
Don’t be surprised to see the Braves take a run at Jake Peavy, writes David O’Brien. Totally agree with him; the package the Padres might seek could include Jair Jurrjens, pitching prospect Tommy Hanson, and an outfielder.
How long would it take Frank Wren to hang up the phone? Anyway, I know Wren wouldn’t trade Jair, but I am sure Towers would ask for more than what a lot of people here think would get it done. He has to right? Jake Peavy is the Padres right now.
By mbatl
October 7, 2008 11:19 AM | Link to this
Seems to me the whole key to getting Peavy is how tough he’s going to be in using his no-trade clause.
If he is willing to go to NY, Boston, LA, etc, then the Pads can hold out for a huge package of prospects, and we probably can’t compete (if we’re gonna protect Heyward, Hanson, etc).
But, if Peavy tells the Pads, “I’m not going to approve a trade to anyone but Atlanta”, then we’ve got a shot to get him below market. That’s where the possible opportunity is here.
By DAP
October 7, 2008 11:34 AM | Link to this
we cant trade jair, that would just be stupid. it would almost nutralize the trade, because we would be getting a pitcher but losing one to. we would have to replace jair then. also, i hope we dont have to trade hanson. from everything ive heard about him, he is really something special, but, as good as peavy is, and with his contract, it might be worth it.
By Fuhgettaboutit
October 7, 2008 11:36 AM | Link to this
Why in the world would anybody want to come here?
1)We have a poor fan base. When is the last time you saw Turner field full???
2)We wont spend the money to get a bigtime player.
3)Were nowhere close to having a team capable of winning the world series. Notice I said world series - not division. Who really cares about the division? You play to win it all!
4)Why have a manager who has 1 foot out of the door. Bobby is most likely gone after this season. Hopefully he is not sticking around to try and go out with a great year or else he might be here for a while.
5)Our best player is our catcher. After that, WE HAVE NOTHING. Sure, they are good players because their in the MLB. But when you compare them to other teams we have nothing.
So Jake - got any interest in coming to ATL?
By Fred
October 7, 2008 11:36 AM | Link to this
GermanBravesFan:
I read it very carefully, maybe you should read my reply more carefully, which was: Why do people really think the Padres will trade Peavy for castoffs? The flip side of that is if the deal gets close and “all it takes” is to add a top prospect or two in the deal to close it - would it be worth it? Very doubtful considering we would still be a dozen quality players short of a division winning team.
DAP:
Your point really doesn’t mean anything. Even if the Padres wrapped him up a year before becoming a free agent, he could have easily waited that one year and filed then if he really wanted to be a Brave. He took their big money when the Padres seemed to be heading in the right direction. Now just ONE YEAR LATER a 5 year deal is worth blowing up on both the Padres and Peavy’s side of things??
All I’m trying to say is this isn’t the NFL, NHL or NBA where parity rules and 40+% of all teams make the playoffs and quick fixes can work. This is MLB and with franchises having something like 200 players in their system (versus zero in NBA & NFL), it takes the whole system to revive a corpse and I just don’t want to jeopardize the future (whether it be players or available big money) when by the time the one thing you get in return will be a free agent again and poof - you’re starting over.
All this said, I’d sure feel better about the future of Johnny Suspenders (Schuerholz)were still calling the shots!
By Scott from Fairburn
October 7, 2008 11:42 AM | Link to this
Relax … Frank will not trade Jair. Let it go.
By Fred
October 7, 2008 11:49 AM | Link to this
DAP,
Believe me, I’m not trying to be a defeatest, but considering in the NL, the Braves are:
14th in homers 13th in steals 4th most GIDP (so we are not powerful as well as slow)
12th in era last in saves last in CG 12th most walks allowed (so we can’t finish what we start or close what we can’t finish)
12th in fielding percentage (It will take years before I can erase Johnson’s dropping the pop up in Philly with 2 out in the 9th to cost us a win and begin the downward spiral this year)
And most importantly, only 3 teams had a worse record.
Those aren’t opinions, those are facts. Thusly, yes, we ARE THAT BAD.
By McFann Ô
October 7, 2008 11:49 AM | Link to this
DAP—
Considering what else the Braves need, I don’t think BUC is a major need either.
Ross and Zaun would make pretty good backups…I’d take Zaun, first. He looked a little better just from the stats I glanced at. I gotta check out their splits and stuff. But their D looked good.
Lo Duca…Hmm-hmm…I’ve never been a fan of him…prob’ly ‘cause I mostly knew him as a Met. He seemed like he had an attitude when he was with the Mets, but I could be wrong. He hit no homers this year, which is kinda sad…only caught two guys stealing.
By Francoeur-Royals '08
October 7, 2008 11:51 AM | Link to this
Peavy > Jurrjens
By BravesFanInRockies
October 7, 2008 11:52 AM | Link to this
Efrim,
Buster’s er, a little off, don’t you think? Why on earth would the Braves consider trading JJ and Hanson? Towers may want them both but there’s no way he’s getting them.
If it takes Morton and Hanson and Small Bridge or an OF (plus a low-level prospect or two), maybe. If KJ has to be part of the deal, then one of the top pitching prospects is not included.
There’s no reason to blow a huge hole in the rotation, and giving away another potential top-of-the-rotation starter for the future, even if you’re filling another with someone of Peavy’s caliber. After all, he can’t pitch twice every five days.
By kenlevy_99
October 7, 2008 11:55 AM | Link to this
This team is fine the way it is. Why take on new and large expense? We can and will win with what we have. Our starting staff next year is exciting. Jairgens, Campillo, Morton, Reyes and Parr. With Batting champ Chipper, slugger McCann, non-stop hit machine Kelly, Yunel, and with Brandon Jones in left, Gregor Blanco in center and the back to greatness Francoeur in right, this team will win and win big. Why mess with probable success?
By McFann Ô
October 7, 2008 11:58 AM | Link to this
Fred Those aren’t opinions, those are facts. Thusly, yes, we ARE THAT BAD.
No, we were that bad. But things are gonna change. 2008 is over.
By Lew
October 7, 2008 11:59 AM | Link to this
Francoeur for Mahay? Someone forgot his medication this morning. That is one of the most absurd trade scenarios I’ve seen here in over three years.
By Fred
October 7, 2008 12:07 PM | Link to this
One last point and I’ll let it go.
Anybody remember a guy we picked up 5 years ago whose contract was nicely back loaded with only one losing record season in his previous 10 years with only a slight injury history? All very Jake Peavy-like.
Does the name Mike Hampton ring a bell??
Does the fact that we haven’t had any availble money to spend the last 3 years because his back loaded contract reached the back side of the contract mean anything to anybody?
The reason for the risk at that time was it was 2003 and the Braves were World Series contenders.
That didn’t work out at all and everybody’s getting all geeked up about doing it again when the teams base isn’t even close to what it was in 2003? Come on - earth to Braves fans: It’s 1988 all over again. Let the farm system take it’s course and in 3 years, just as in 1991, there’s a good chance that 1988 prospects Glavine, Avery, Justice, Gant, etc. will become big time major leaguers.
Spend your money wisely in the meantime to put a respectable team on the field, but don’t start dreaming of the 90’s when players WANTED to come to Atlanta to play, and take less to either sign or re-sign after a trade (Maddux, Grissom, Galarraga, Neagle), it just isn’t so any longer.
By cabravesfan
October 7, 2008 12:09 PM | Link to this
McFann
Re Mac’s D- I don’t even remember where I saw that about his defense…was one of those things I just kinda stumbled across one day while bored at work:)
By DAP
October 7, 2008 12:22 PM | Link to this
fugetaboutit We have a poor fan base. When is the last time you saw Turner field full???
i went to atlanta on the second to last home game. i couldnt get in. they were sold out.
fred Your point really doesn’t mean anything.
except that it makes you look stupid for saying peavy signed with san diego as a free agent, instead of signing with the braves. he has never been a free agent. he wanted security, the pads waved money in his face, and he took it.
heres what you said:
But if he REALLY wanted to be a Brave, how come we didn’t pursue him harder or vice versa when he was a free agent?
well, we didnt persue him because we couldnt. and he didnt persue us because he couldnt. he was still under contrac, and that team made him a very good offer. why risk it by playing another year and maybe getting hurt and not getting a contract at all? people on the blog have said peavy would like to play here. nobody said it is peavy’s life ambition to be a brave.
also, its important to mention he would like to play in atalnta, since he has a no trade clause and would have to approve.
By McFann Ô
October 7, 2008 12:26 PM | Link to this
cabravesfan—
Haha…That’s OK. He was pretty good with his D in the minors. Only thing is, on baseball-reference.com, it doesn’t list his SB-CS in his minor league fielding stats. That’s weird, isn’t it?
I’ll look around for some scouting reports…I’ll try that Baseball Prospectus…I seem to recall something on there.
Lew Francoeur for Mahay? Someone forgot his medication this morning.
LOL! That’s hilarious. Pretty bizarre trade, too. Why would KC do that?
By clay17
October 7, 2008 12:27 PM | Link to this
DOB - Any ideas on how they will handle Hudson’s contract? Has there been any hints that they will restructure and add a year or two. It seems like too much of a risk to pick up a big option when he’s coming off TJ surgery. On the flip side though, we sure can’t let him walk.
By BravesFanInRockies
October 7, 2008 12:34 PM | Link to this
kenlevy_99,
I hope you’re joking. And if so, I missed the punch line.
By RC
October 7, 2008 12:38 PM | Link to this
Anyone else read the news that the Twins might be interested in trading Delmon Young for a SS?? I find it a bit strange since sending Bartlett to Tampa Bay for Young was how they created a hole at SS. Regardless, do you think a package of Lillibridge and a low-level prospect could get Delmon Young for LF next year? And even if it could, is that a trade anyone here would like to see happen?
By David O'Brien
October 7, 2008 12:45 PM | Link to this
Clay17, Hudson’s probably not even on the priority list right now. Gotta see how he comes back from TJ surgery first, and where the Braves are with other pitchers. In other words, if they get an ace under contract for a few years, and/or they have a young pitcher or two who develops rapidly this season, they might not want to pick up the option. Or they might want to JUST pick up the option and go no further.
Just no reason I could see them extending his contract when he’s coming off TJ surgery, at his age, and with an option year already there to pick up if they want to.
By Braves20
October 7, 2008 12:47 PM | Link to this
The Angel’s season is over and all they got in the play-offs from Tex was a bunch of singles and one RBI - could have gotten that from Casey. Glad we made that trade although I’d rather have the five prospects back.
Who’s next to overpay for Tex - the Yankees? Wouldn’t that be sweet.
By mbatl
October 7, 2008 12:47 PM | Link to this
RC, Lillibridge for Delmon Young? In a heartbeat. But I fear the Twinkies would want Escobar, not Lil’ Bridge.
By fansince66
October 7, 2008 12:50 PM | Link to this
kenlevy-99 you are delusional. Don’t jump on the Parr bandwagon just yet, have you checked on his minor league numbers, OK but not spectacular?
By David O'Brien
October 7, 2008 12:53 PM | Link to this
SP, the blog focused on Peavy (not Oswalt) because Kevin Towers made it known last week that he’d consider trading Peavy. Not that he’s necessarily shopping him, but that he’d listen to offers. They have a history of trading guys for multiple younger players, and the Braves have such players and have made it known they are willing to trade some of them to fill their needs.
By Shaun
October 7, 2008 12:53 PM | Link to this
but if one team beats another, arent they a better team? they are that day.
I don’t think anyone would say the 2008 Cubs are better than the 2008 Dodgers. And I think we would agree, the more games they played against each other, the more likely it is the Cubs would have won the majority of those games. So the nature of having a playoff system is a team that wins 90-plus games in the regular season could get beat by a team that wins 80-90 games in the regular season.
Fred, the Braves won 101, 96 and 90 games in Hampton’s first three years with the club. And Hampton pitched pretty well in those years until he got hurt in 2005. Did Hampton’s contract hinder them in 2006-2008? Maybe. But they took a shot at the playoffs and World Series by acquiring Hampton before the 2003 season. And you could make a convincing argument that Hampton made a significant contribution to the 2003 and 2004 teams and contributed to the 2005 team that won the division.
I don’t think it’s as cut-and-dry as you are making it: Braves sign Hampton, Braves ruined. If the Braves had won the World Series in 2003 or 2004 (which they could have easily done with a 101-win team and a 96-win team and a break or two here and there) the Hampton trade would probably be viewed differently.
By DAP
October 7, 2008 12:56 PM | Link to this
RC if the twins would do that, i definetly wouldnt mind seeing young here. he is young, and isnt yet the offesive force we really need, but he is a good young player that will help alot in the future. i would take a chance on him if the cost was only little bridge and a low level prospect.
By David O'Brien
October 7, 2008 1:01 PM | Link to this
SP, one other thing: Yes, I’d definitely put Oswalt in that group of 8-10. And if he were/is available, I think Braves would be interested. I don’t think he is. But haven’t seen or heard anything definitive in that regard for a while now.
By Lew
October 7, 2008 1:04 PM | Link to this
Fred-We’re a dozen players short of a successful team? Really? How exactly do you figure that? What twelve players do you think need to be replaced? Smoltz? Glavine? Think we’re pretty well assured of not depending on them in 09. Hell, they might not even pitch again.
The bullpen? Why exactly do you think they were not successful last year? Are you aware that the first half of the season (despite not having Soriano, Moylan and Gonzo), they were pretty damned good? As for Post All Star break, do you think their performances might have been affected by overuse? Do you think perhaps this overuse might be reversed by acquiring a couple innings eating pitchers like the Braves plan to do?
As for our underperforming players Francoeur, Kotchman and Johnson-they are problems only if you haven’t figured out what caused the downslide, or in KJ’s case, the inconsistency. In all three cases, we have not only seen them figure out why, but make significant inroads towards reversing the situation.
With Kelly, it seemingly was a carryover from when he was batting leadoff, which requires patience at the plate. When Kelly finally figured out this approach was hurting his natural agressiveness and he went up there swinging instead, look at what resulted-a 22 game streak where he was unreal-just like he was expected to be. No one doubts his power potential (well, maybe you, but otherwise….)
As to Francoeur-he realized that bulking up with upper body muscle last winter, in a misguided attempt to drive the ball further was a severe mistake because a. It restricted his swing and b. He couldn’t run as quickly and was considerably less mobile. He lost 25 pounds and he started hitting much more consistently and driving in runs again. The return to his 06, 07 numbers seems to me a good bet.
As for Casey Kotchman-Dude was shell shocked leaving the team with MLB’s best record coming to a team that, at that point in time, was shot to sh!t. On the heals of this psychological brain blast, his Mom became seriously ill , requiring him to lose focus and to leave the team for a time. Upon his return, he stopped killing worms on an 8 degree angle to the left of the first baseman and started improving his OBP and his run production numbers. With an improved team and so much less on his mind, he should return to his upward curve.
Who else did you have in mind? Maybe it would be a good idea to find a backup catcher who is somewhat more offensively reliable than Corky and Sammons-I’ll give you that, but I do not see this as a problem. Several such as LoDuca, Oliva and Estrada have been mentioned. There are options available.
I would like to see the Braves re-sign Ohman as they will need a LH reliever and he is as good as they come. Whoever suggested trading Francoeur for the return of Mahay, whose ERA jumped a run and a quarter this season and who is 37, was insanity personified.
I fail to see just where these twelve holes are in our roster and I sure as hell don’t see a problem filling any needs. It has been well over a decade since the Braves have had this kind of money available to help fill holes. It will happen.
We are NOT that far from contention. Keep in mind that the Mets have holes opening on their roster as well. So will the Phillies. Just how much longer can 45 year old Jamie Moyer continue to have seasons like he did this year? Will Eaton ever be worth a damn? Will Myers continue e to be a head case? Will they be able to re-sign Burrell? What about a possible long term contract for Howard? Will he sign one? Will they have enough cash to handle it? Time will tell. The Marlins are likely to dismantle their team yet again. Do you really see them contending if they do?
Sorry Dude, I’m just not buying into your total doom and gloom scenario. It’s only a problem if you see no chance of reversing the trend. I do. Not too sure why you don’t. Are you just pessimistic by nature?
By DAP
October 7, 2008 1:06 PM | Link to this
I fear the Twinkies would want Escobar, not Lil’ Bridge.
yup. i wouldnt do that.
By Paul Scanling
October 7, 2008 1:09 PM | Link to this
Tim Hudson is not an Alabama native. He’s from Columbus. He went to Glenwood, a private school just across the state line and then Auburn, but he was born and raised in Columbus.
By GeorgetownKid
October 7, 2008 1:12 PM | Link to this
DAP
What would you say about Peavy for JJ straight up?
The advantage of JJ is that he is so cheap and he will remain so for another 4-5 years. Peavy, while making far less than his market value, is still expensive.
Of course, we HOPE that JJ might develop into a pitcher of Peavy’s calibre, but that is far from guaranteed. Should we turn down the opportunity to acquire a sure-bet ace in order to keep a young talent? Is it possible that JJ experiences a sophomore slump?
Personally, I would give up JJ (straight up) in order to get Peavy. Because I believe Peavy is the baseball equivalent of Payton Manning or Tim Duncan - you just don’t turn down the opportunity to get him.
I think a fair trade would be Hanson + Cody Johnson for Peavy. Hanson could be the next Kevin Millwood, but he could also be the next Kyle Davies. Cody Johnson, at best, will be like Ryan Klesko, but he could also be another Scott Thorman.
Another fair trade (I believe) would be Charlie Morton + Kelly Johnson + low-level prospect for Peavy.
I believe that too many people on this blog are grossly underestimating what it would take to acquire a pitcher like Jake Peavy. You can’t acquire a guy who will be a Cy Young-callibre starter for another 10 years without paying a high price.
By DAP
October 7, 2008 1:13 PM | Link to this
shaun I don’t think anyone would say the 2008 Cubs are better than the 2008 Dodgers.
i think you meant it the other way around. and i would definetly agree…but its one of those any given sunday things. the dodgers sure did look like the better team for three games in a row.
By ccrider
October 7, 2008 1:13 PM | Link to this
Lew: I agreed that Sheets is a risk, but he did pitch almost 200 innings this season, the injury he had is not serious and will heal without surgery. If, we could trade for Peavy to go with Jurjjens, Hampton, Glavine and still keep Hanson, Medlin, Morton, Redmond and Campillo, then we would have quality young pitching to rest or replace any of our aging(Glavine, Hampton) or injury prone (Sheets) starters. I think the competition for Sheets because of the late season injury will be less, the length and dollars of the contract will be less and we could get a NO.1 type starter to go with Peavy that if managed properly could help get us in the playoffs and possibly deep into the playoffs. I think if you look at the free agent options, they all give you reservations. Lowe(age), Sabathia($$$), Dempster(One Great season, poor playoffs), Burnett(may resign with Toronto),Garland(high ERA), Oliver Perez(maddingly inconsistent), Brad Penny(injury prone as well). I would rather take a risk on a No.1 starter than Perez, Garland, Dempster, Lowe’s age along with his career will make him a target of the big boys along with Sabathia and we can’t spend their kind of money. So whose left Randy Wolf, Brandon Looper, Paul Byrd? I think we could get that level of performance out of one of our rookies. So, I feel like either take the risk on somebody that can make a difference or just go with Campillo or one of the kids!
By Robert
October 7, 2008 1:14 PM | Link to this
I guess it’s another off-season of the company trying to convice us that all we have to do is add Players X,Y,and Z and it will all be ok
Forgetting the obvious question - namely, if it didnt help when we had the best roster in baseball year after year after year, then why should it help now
Which will lead to revisionist propaganda about how the 90’s Braves were really just not that good and needed some kind of special genius to get them to win even 70 games, much less 90 or 100
And all because abandoning this silly, flawed, and logically inconsistent line of misreasoning would mean having to admit to and facing the real problem
But we cant do that
Cant take the Donk’s name in vain
Early predictions for 2009
1 - An 85 win roster that is managed to a 75 win season
2 - Lots of not-so-subtle mentions by the company mouthpiece (AKA DOB) to show us mere blog peons how in-tight he is with the old-boys-club
(you know, calling Chipper “Hoss” like they’re big buddies)
3 - More acrid insults and put-downs to yours truly because I am not sidetracked sufficiently by the comapny line
I take it as a compliment. In most scandalous situations, the more they vilify you, the closer you are to the truth
Carry on, Mr Company Mouthpiece - tell us Jake Peavy would give his testicles to play for Bobby Cox and remind us that another manager somewhere once made a mistake and that Cox doesnt bat or pitch
By mbatl
October 7, 2008 1:15 PM | Link to this
From Jason Stark, 10/1/08:
Over the past week, we polled officials of 19 clubs to see which team they thought would win the World Series. The Cubs won the poll. Going away.
Of course, not only did the Cubs not win Div. Series, they didn’t even win one game.
If that doesn’t tell you the MLB playoffs are a crapshoot, I don’t know what will.
By Lew
October 7, 2008 1:15 PM | Link to this
McFann-Do I detect some Francoeur resentment here? I meant the Braves would be the And Idiots to do the deal. A 24 year old Gold Glove winning outfielder who has led MLB in assists for the past four years, who has knocked in over 100 runs twice and plays every game, who makes about a half mil a year as opposed to a 37 year old pitcher whose ERA jumped 1 1/4 runs per game last year, pitches in maybe 1/3 of the games and makes $mil per?
Come on now. Let’s get real. Maybe dwelling on Turtles has affected your thought process.
By Submariner
October 7, 2008 1:17 PM | Link to this
I talked about this deal last week when the news broke about Peavy being on the trade block and was dismissed by bloggers. This deal makes sense and is just what Wren was talking about. Getting needs through trades. I’ll say this too. Don’t be suprised if Jermain Dye is in the mix about coming back to where it all began. A power hitting outfeilder aquired through trade. So they trade for Peavy and Dye. Bring back Glavine and Hampton on the cheap with the possability of adding…..uh…..I don’t know…….John Smoltz midseason in the bull pen. And don’t forget Huddy to boot. A rotation of Peavy, Glavine, Hampton and Jurrjens looks pretty darn good to start the season!
By Lew
October 7, 2008 1:17 PM | Link to this
Excuse me-Mahay makes $4 mi per year-about 8 times what Frenchy will command in 09.
By Shaun
October 7, 2008 1:20 PM | Link to this
Braves20, I think the Angels made the right move (as did the Braves). Teixeira was obviously an upgrade over Kotchman for a 2008 World Series run. All you can ask out of your GM is for him to give your team the best shot because you never know when another great shot will come. Making the Teixeira trade gave them the best shot to win the World Series in 2008 and it didn’t work out. The important thing, as far as making trades is concerned, is that they did all they could to put the best team possible on the field.
Now if you can convince me that the Angels should have known that Kotchman would have performed better than Teixeira in the 2008 post-season, I’ll agree the Angels over-paid. But hindsight is 20-20. The only info they had to go on is that Teixeira is clearly the better player in 2008 than Kotchman.
By Lew
October 7, 2008 1:25 PM | Link to this
CC-Not too sure why you think an injury of Sheet’s type combined with him missing the last month of the season in a pennant race and then missing the playoffs is not a serious injury. Not to mention, the Dude has a history of injuries throughout his career. The money would be better spent elsewhere and not on the DL like we’ve seen for how long now? NO WAY you approach Sheets-no matter how long a pole you space yourself from him with. He is NOT a fit with the Braves. He is another injury just waiting to happen. Period.
By Lew
October 7, 2008 1:30 PM | Link to this
Robert-As many have told you many times in the past. You’re a complete Idiot and a scratched record at best. Go get a Twinky and rant to yourself in private. You lost credibility many years ago.
By brent a.
October 7, 2008 1:33 PM | Link to this
DOB,
Consider yourself, “Bustered”!
Tyler : The AJC Braves beat writer David O?Brien has speculated that the Braves will target Jake Peavy this offseason to fill one of the top two positions in their rotation. How would you rate their chances of snagging Peavy and what would they have to give up? Thanks!
Buster Olney: (1:10 PM ET ) Tyler: Saw DOB’s piece, and I think he’s dead on — but they cannot make that trade without dealing at least one of their three best prospects — Hanson and Schaefer and Jason Heyward. We’ll see if they take it that far.
By Moby Grape
October 7, 2008 1:41 PM | Link to this
Jeff Francoeur for Ron Mahay.Franc
my goodness, you can not possibly believe that the Braves would do that deal straight up like that, can you? If they had wanted Mahay at his current salary they would have resigned him last year, and there is no way they are going to give up on Jeff for nothing more that a reliever.
By Shaun
October 7, 2008 1:45 PM | Link to this
i think you meant it the other way around. and i would definetly agree…but its one of those any given sunday things. the dodgers sure did look like the better team for three games in a row.
DAP, yes, I did mean it the other way around. My mistake.
And yes it is one of those “any given Sunday things” which is exactly my point. It’s the nature of the playoffs that any given team could be any other team in a 5-7-game series, no matter who is actually the better baseball team (i.e., who would win more if they played 10, 20, 30, 50, 154, 162 games).
Robert, do you know how many teams have won at least 68 percent of their games and still lost in the postseason? Let’s see:
1906 Cubs 1954 Indians 2001 Mariners 1931 A’s 1995 Indians 1953 Dodgers 1943 Cardinals 1912 Giants 1909 Cubs (didn’t make the post-season)
That’s 9 of the 24 teams that have won 68 percent or more of their regular season games but lost in the postseason. So, I guess we must conclude that every single one of those teams had “donkeys” as managers, according to your “silly, flawed, and logically inconsistent line of misreasoning.”
By Shaun
October 7, 2008 1:49 PM | Link to this
mbatl, according to Robert it just tells you that the Cubs have a donkey for a manager. That’s the only excuse he knows for really good teams losing in the post-season.
By glove51
October 7, 2008 1:59 PM | Link to this
The most available position players, either prospects or in the majors have to be:
Lillibridge B. Jones Francouer Anderson
(is Diaz under contract?)
Pitchers:
Jo-Jo Chuck James Kris Medlen Lower level prospect
I’d hate to see them give up Hanson or Morton.
I may have to check out the new Lucinda CD. Loved your mention (in the last blog) of (one of) Elvis C.’s masterpiece(s) - Imperial Bedroom. I don’t have the deluxe version (I do have deluxe versions of My Aim is True (the newest one), Get Happy, Trust, and Blood and Chocolate (older deluxe versions)).
I must Elvis has really capitalized on re-packaging his music several tiems over through the years. More power to him. It doesn’t hurt the old bank account to have your spouse be one of the Top 10 all-time sellers on Amazon, either.
I am hoping he comes to Tulsa this Winter in support of his latest record. I hope to see him again at the Cain’s Ballroom. He was great there in 2005.
By David O'Brien
October 7, 2008 2:01 PM | Link to this
CC: I agree with Lew regarding Sheets. The Braves, after their recent spate of pitching injuries, simply can’t afford to gamble again on a guy who’s had such a string of assorted DL stints, not when he’s going to surely get an over-inflated free-agent contract.
Before this season, Sheets had three consecutive seasons with fewer than 25 starts and fewer than 160 innings. He won 28 games in that three-year span (2005-2007). And even this season, though he nearly pitched 200 innings, he was hurt down the stretch when needed most.
Get this: His career record after the All-Star break is 30-40, with a 4.04 ERA.
By SEM
October 7, 2008 2:02 PM | Link to this
Dave,
If the Braves do happen to get Peavey, do you think they will still make a serious effort to get Lowe as well? Or, will they go in another direction instead? Would they put more emphasis on getting a power-hitting left fielder once they have a frontline pitcher? If they do get Peavey in a trade, would that alter their strategy on how they go about getting the left fielder (free agent vs. trade)? Thanks.
By FloridaBrave
October 7, 2008 2:03 PM | Link to this
No doubt, brent a.
DOB,
Look what the D-Backs gave up for Haren.
The Braves could probably deem Heyward untouchable but they’re not getting Peavy without dealing the other top prospects.
The Pads’ offense is dreadful and they’d need to get a ML ready bat back…whether it’s Kelly Johnson or Jordan Schafer or both. Then a ML ready arm like Hanson to fill Peavy’s spot would also be attractive.
In fact, I can see the Pads asking for Johnson, Schafer, and Hanson right off the bat. I don’t think the Braves can deal their projected starting 2B and CF in the same deal so the Braves will chose to keep one(I’d keep Johnson since he’s more proven) and add two more to the Schafer/Hanson base like Freeman(a So-Cal kid), Flowers, Hicks, Lillibridge(they need middle infielders), Medlen, Jones, etc.
The Braves certainly have the depth to make this happen but it’ll take a lot more than a lot of you guys are thinking.
I also think it’d be a good idea on the Braves’ part to see if they can get the Padres to eat some of that $22 million salary on his option year to make it more feasible for the Braves to keep him for 5 years rather than 4.
By Moby Grape
October 7, 2008 2:09 PM | Link to this
but they cannot make that trade without dealing at least one of their three best prospects — Hanson and Schaefer and Jason Heyward. We’ll see if they take it that farOlney
I agree. I’m amazed at how little most posters think it would take to get Peavy. If not one of our top three, then two of our next three or fout plus ledder prospects.
By David O'Brien
October 7, 2008 2:10 PM | Link to this
Glove51, Diaz isn’t under contract, but he’s under Braves control. In other words, as long as they tender him a contract, he’s theirs. He’s arb-eligible.
You’re right about Costello: Let him get paid now the way he should’ve been when he was producing those masterpieces.
By McFann Ô
October 7, 2008 2:22 PM | Link to this
Lew Do I detect some Francoeur resentment here?
Hmm…maybe a little, but not too much. But you’re right. I didn’t think of it that way…Bad trade for Braves.
Haha! There’s an add at the bottom of my screen that says, “Jake Peavy” and underneath it reads, “Browse a huge selection now. Find exactly what you want today. www.ebay.com”
Yeah, folks it’s not that easy!
By Efrim
October 7, 2008 2:22 PM | Link to this
Moby Grape
I agree with your 2:09. Wren will have to give up Heyward, Hanson or Schafer. If he doesn’t, then Towers needs to have his head examined.
By mbatl
October 7, 2008 2:40 PM | Link to this
Anybody looked at Peavy’s numbers outside of pitcher-friendly Petco Park?
A full run higher ERA (2.77 vs 3.80)
And in ‘08, a road ERA of 4.28; In ‘07, quite good, at 2.57; in ‘06, again, not so hot, at 4.57.
I’m not saying he’s not a great pitcher; but it’s tough to overlook the influence that Petco Park has on hitting and pitching numbers. In 2 of the last 3 years, Jake has been pretty pedestrian outside of pitcher-friendly Petco.
By DAP
October 7, 2008 2:41 PM | Link to this
georgetownkid What would you say about Peavy for JJ straight up?
peavy is obviously an upgrade, but what i was saying is that if we trade jair and get peavy, we still need two pitchers. its not gonna help us win in 2009.
By The Mysterious Rhinestone Cowboy
October 7, 2008 2:41 PM | Link to this
DOB
I saw Shooter Jennings rock the courthouse square in El Dorado, AR this past weekend. He only played an hour, because he was opening for John Anderson, who I don’t much care for, but it was well worth the price of admission. That dude puts on one hell of a rock show. (Especially liked Bad Magick)
The best part of the John Anderson portion of the show was when his fiddle player (had to be 65+ years old) wearing a white T-Shirt and some Big Smith overalls cranked out Orange Blossom Special so fast, it would have made Charlie Daniels do a double take. He looked like some guy they just pulled out of a rocking chair on the front porch of an old General Store somewhere in North Louisiana but he absolutely wore that fiddle out. Good stuff.
By David O'Brien
October 7, 2008 2:47 PM | Link to this
TK, I haven’t gotten a gauge of Braves’ interest in Markakis. Why it makes sense: He’s young (24), very good (gives you 20-25 homers and 90-100 RBI, with a .300 average and .400 OBP, or thereabouts) and relatively cheap, arb-eligible for first time). But I heard this summer he was asking for pretty major dollars in a long-term extension, when O’s decided to back off until offseason at least before renewing talks). Of course, if he doesn’t sign an extension you can bet he’ll stay hungry as he works toward getting that first big contract.
He is, however, left-handed. Braves really could use right-handed pop. Don’t know how important that is, exactly, in making their move this winter for an OF.
Also worth noting: he’s played exclusively right field the past two seasons (played some left as a rookie).
By David O'Brien
October 7, 2008 2:51 PM | Link to this
Rhinestone Cowboy: Shooter does a song with Tom Morello on Morello’s new Nightwatchman album. Great song, by the way.
By Original Jon
October 7, 2008 2:54 PM | Link to this
For all those talking about trading Jair for Peavy, get a clue. Wren said he wanted to ADD pitching, not SUBTRACT it.
Doesn’t anyone pay any attention??!!!
By Duke
October 7, 2008 2:59 PM | Link to this
DOB, would the Braves be willing to throw Schafer in the mix for Peavy? Wren shouldn’t be hessitant to do it simply because Gorkys Hernandez is going to be the better player. Schafer is a good player and will be a good outfielder but Gorkys has a chance to be much like Curtis Granderson. I think that it would be a good move to bring Z back for a year with option for 2010. Everybody loves Kotsay and he’s playing well and INJURY free. Gorkys should be ready to contribute by then.
By Original Jon
October 7, 2008 2:59 PM | Link to this
Hey David What do you think about the Braves trading for Delmon Young? Do you think he might be someone they would look at? Just wondering what you think about it.
By KC Matt
October 7, 2008 3:04 PM | Link to this
DOB,
Has anyone mentioned the idea of trading a few prospects and KJ for Jermaine Dye? Just a thought, move Frenchy over to left and pick up 30+ HRs and 100 RBI’s in right.
By Shaun
October 7, 2008 3:04 PM | Link to this
DOB, would the O’s entertain trading Markakis without getting a uber-prospect? I just can’t see the Orioles giving up a player that young and talented, and they have never been shy about spending money, so I don’t know if his contract status is an issue for them right now.
By ugacpa02
October 7, 2008 3:05 PM | Link to this
I like Peavey and he’s affordable under a long term contract but the injury concern is too high to let go of a top 3 prospect plus everyone else that would be demanded in trade. Now if they will go for something like Hanson for Peavey straight up I’ll listen, but we can’t also throw in quality players on top of that.
We have to make the key portion of this trade from positions of major league depth, which unfortunately is only 2nd base or injury prone but good closer/setup men. I assume they want the 2nd base help since it seems most people on here think they do.
So if I’m looking to see what we have for sell I see the following: .300 batting 2nd basemen with some power don’t grow on trees so Kelly Johnson can’t be a give away but should be the key piece here. JoJo, Campillo, Morton I’d part with one as part of this package. I think they’d want one to replace his rotation spot. Lillibridge, Cody Johnson, Freeman and Hernandez have real value and I’d reluctantly include 1, hopefully not the first baseman. The Double A and Single A pitchers I don’t know well enough to say for sure, but if they pick one we’re not as high on I’d be happy. That’s 4 players they could use and spreads the pain across the system. Our farm isn’t destroyed and we give enough value to get a top 10 arm.
I would not make this same trade for hardly anyone else. I like it because of his long term contract and the decent potential he’ll want to stay here the rest of his career.
We got 14 straight on the backs of a strong farm system and we are finally starting to see a return to that. Anything more than the above trade and I think we’re making a bad choice.
By ccrider
October 7, 2008 3:05 PM | Link to this
DOB and Lew: I agree with you both that Sheets is a risk, but I don’t believe he will get the contract you think. I,too would like a more reliable pitcher but the free agent market is very limited and we only have so many prospects to deal before we start to diminish the future of the ballclub. Please honestly, I would like to hear both of your ideas of who we get if as I figure Sabbatha, Lowe and Burnett are swept up by the big boys? MY only alternative is to hope for a trade: Peavy, Greinke, Oswalt and then go with JJ, Hampton, Glavine and Campillo, with the young guys at AAA; Hanson, Morton, Medlin, Redmond and Lerew being ready in case of injury.
By StingerSplash
October 7, 2008 3:06 PM | Link to this
Get this: His career record after the All-Star break is 30-40, with a 4.04 ERA. Thanks, DOB, for muddying up things with facts and research. Can’t just we rely on some irrational, groundless, baseless hand-wringing?
(don’t get em in a wad … the sarcasm font has been employed)
By Tomas
October 7, 2008 3:07 PM | Link to this
Peavy, Burnett, and Sheets, are great, great pitchers, but they are a big risk. Look at the Mariners, I thought they made the right choice to go after Bedard, but he got injured, and they’re talking about possibly non-tendering him. I know, there is no way to know that, but there are always indications that can lead to that conclusion. It can work. Look at Johan Santana, or Tim Hudson(until this year), but it could also turn out terribly like Bedard. Personally I’d take the risk for Peavy, and maybe Burnett, but no way on Sheets. Sometimes, a team needs to gamble.
By Shaun
October 7, 2008 3:10 PM | Link to this
Original Jon, is Delmon Young on the trading block? The Twins gave up a young, talented pitcher for him. Unless they can get someone younger with as much potential, I can’t see that it makes sense for them. Maybe I’m wrong.
By David O'Brien
October 7, 2008 3:10 PM | Link to this
mbatl, since beginning of 2006 season, here are a rew noteworthy pitchers’ road stats:
Peavy: 20-14, 3.73 ERA, .235 opp. avg. in 42 starts.
Oswalt: 19-17, 3.74 ERA, .275 opp. avg. in 48 starts.
Tim Hudson: 18-16, 4.07 ERA, .255 opp. avg in 47 starts.
By David O'Brien
October 7, 2008 3:13 PM | Link to this
Shaun, I doubt it. They’d want top young talent back, I’m sure. I was just responding to someone’s comment, someone who’d heard Braves were interested. I don’t know if there’s validity to it. Just saying from Braves’ perspective, it makes some sense (same could be said for plenty of other outfielders they’ll have on their board).
By Shaun
October 7, 2008 3:15 PM | Link to this
KC Matt, in Dye they would get a guy in his mid 30s with a career .338 on-base and .491 career slugging. Not bad if he were in his early-to-mid 20s but I think KJ and “a few prospects” is just too much to give up for Dye at this point in his career.
By ncscoots
October 7, 2008 3:17 PM | Link to this
Efrim, didn’t we have that Peavy conversation re Towers LAST week, LOL? I feel like one of those time-jumpers in Heroes!
By BravesFan79
October 7, 2008 3:19 PM | Link to this
KC Matt…. YES… finally someone else calling for the Braves to get Jermaine Dye again!
I think hes be perfect for the outfield, and his defense is better than Burrells or Dunns.
I called for the Braves to sign him as a free agent this time last year. Hes always been a clutch player…and hes a former Brave. And anyone that wants to trade a inexpensive JJ for ANYONE is a fan lacking knowledge.
By DAP
October 7, 2008 3:24 PM | Link to this
KC Matt Has anyone mentioned the idea of trading a few prospects and KJ for Jermaine Dye?
i mentioned it. i went further and said we could even go after uggla or brian roberts to play 2nd. our offense would be solid thats for sure.
By NickC
October 7, 2008 3:25 PM | Link to this
KC Matt, or we could sign a free agent to do that and not have a hole at 2nd.
Prado will not be able to replicate Kelly’s numbers, but he is a good backup and we need good bench players if we have to cope with 30 games without Chipper a year.
The one reason I’d trade Gorkys instead of Schafer is that Schafer can fill a hole next year. We wouldn’t need to sign a stopgap like Kotsay to eat into the budget for this winter.
By mbatl
October 7, 2008 3:28 PM | Link to this
DOB, good numbers.
In 2007 (his CY year), Peavy was 10-1 with a 2.57 on the road. No doubt: he was simply unhittable in ‘07, home or away.
In ‘06, he was 5-7 with a 4.57 on the road; in ‘08, he was 5-6 with a 4.28 away from Petco.
His career ERA at Turner Field is 4.38; at Shea, it’s 4.65; at Citizen’s, 3.86.
I’m not trying to torpedo any trade plans (Ha!); just saying that it’s worth taking into account that Petco Park plays to pitchers’ numbers.
That should figure into the Braves negotiations, if any develop.
By Steve from OH
October 7, 2008 3:34 PM | Link to this
Braveheart, wasn’t thinking of the elbow issue, just the oblique one. Slipped my mind. I agree with the rest of your 10:37. Peavy for 2ish years and a TJ surgery is better than no Peavy, IMO. I still think that he’s eventually heading for TJ, but if we get him this offseason, I couldn’t care less.
Jurrjens, Hanson, + prospects for Peavy? No, thanks. I’ll take the former. BFIR summed it up pretty well at 11:52.
Markakis is an interesting idea. Have no idea if the O’s are even considering shopping him, but interesting nontheless.
Robert: Take a break, buddy. Go for a run. Read a nice book (I could suggest several). Clear your head. Then come back and talk baseball, instead of talking about livestock. I reckon you’ve got the wrong blog.
By Efrim
October 7, 2008 3:37 PM | Link to this
ncscoots
Efrim, didn’t we have that Peavy conversation re Towers LAST week, LOL? I feel like one of those time-jumpers in Heroes!
Haha. Yes, we did have this convo about him last week. It’s a good topic though, gets me excited for the offseason. It’s just that I think we’ll have to give a ton to get the guy. More than most people here think. Also, if he is on the block, other teams will jump in. He may not waive his no trade for them, but say one of those teams is the Red Sox. I can’t imagine Peavy not wanting to play for “The Machine”. All these factors will drive his price up even higher than it already is.
By Shaun
October 7, 2008 3:49 PM | Link to this
Seems we haven’t heard from Robert since I posted how many of the best regular season teams lost in the post-season.
Guess he’s busy thinking of a creative way to call all those managers donkeys.
By Efrim
October 7, 2008 3:50 PM | Link to this
FloridaBrave
The Braves could probably deem Heyward untouchable but they’re not getting Peavy without dealing the other top prospects.
Agreed. I think they can get him without giving up Heyward. But Hanson would surely be on his way to SD and I have to imagine they would want Hernandez or Schafer, plus Escobar or Johnson.
So would Johnson, Hanson, Gorkys Hernandez and a Low A pitcher (Randall Delgado?) be enough to get Jake Peavy?
If I am the Braves I would think long and hard about that trade.
By MGL
October 7, 2008 3:53 PM | Link to this
A Book for Robert
http://www.buy.com/retail/product.asp?sku=204842664&listingid=26365631&dcaid=17902
By Mr.Positive
October 7, 2008 3:54 PM | Link to this
Life sucks then you die
By KC Matt
October 7, 2008 3:57 PM | Link to this
Shaun, KC Matt, in Dye they would get a guy in his mid 30s with a career .338 on-base and .491 career slugging. Not bad if he were in his early-to-mid 20s but I think KJ and “a few prospects” is just too much to give up for Dye at this point in his career
I understand your thinking, and ordinarilly I would agree. But in this case, we have some great young talent on the horizon and Dye would be a free agent after next year or the year after. That gives the front office a year or two to make a decision on Frenchy (whether or not to make him a cornerstone) and provides the youngsters some more time to develope.
By TennesseePaul
October 7, 2008 3:58 PM | Link to this
mbatl: So, are you saying we should park-adjust Peavy?
By ncscoots
October 7, 2008 4:05 PM | Link to this
Efrim, with a gun to my head, I’d say the price for a Peavy is higher than some here think, and not quite as high as you or I might think. And, even then, that depends on so many variables of which we are unaware that we’d probably come closer to naming the actual trade pieces by throwing darts at roster sheets.
But the Braves organization has been pretty good in the past at evaluating their own farm system dispassionately. As long as Frank isn’t on serious drugs when the phone rings, I doubt they are going to be robbed in any trade.
By mbatl
October 7, 2008 4:05 PM | Link to this
mbatl: So, are you saying we should park-adjust Peavy?
Yes.
By Steve from OH
October 7, 2008 4:07 PM | Link to this
Efrim, all I can say is that if the Braves are serious about keeping the untouchable group untouchable, that tells me that they’ve either got a deal or two in place, have confidence (hopefully based on preliminary talks) that other teams value lesser-known prospects well enough, or that they plan to go a completely different route that we don’t know.
I don’t expect them to trade Heyward, Hanson or Schafer based on what DOB has said. But I’ve got confidence that he’s got something up his sleeve, becuase he’s got to have some confidence in his plan to say that he’s not trading a (fairly) large group of good prospects and still say that he’s got a good plan to improve the team.
Can we get Peavy w/o trading Heyward? Yes. W/o Heyward and Hanson? Yes. w/o Heyward, Hanson and Kelly Johnson? Now we’ve got a problem, IMO. If San Diego is willing to accept JoJo and Morton/Campillo, then we’ve got it a lot easier. Something tells me that someone (not necessarily SD) values JoJo and Charlie/Jorge enough (in FW’s opinion) to build a deal around them and some lower-level prospects. Same for Lillibridge and Jones. It’s going to take some very creative dealing, no doubt. But I think FW is as capable as anyone of doing it. I mean, he got Ohman and Infante for Ascanio, for crying out loud. If he’s got a few more of those up his sleeve, then we’re in pretty doggone good shape.
By DAP
October 7, 2008 4:10 PM | Link to this
would anybody want to try and trade for ichiro? MLB trade rumors have been saying he might be available. as always, its always about the price. but, imagine him hitting in front of chipper.
By cabravesfan
October 7, 2008 4:32 PM | Link to this
would anybody want to try and trade for ichiro?
We don’t need anymore slap hitting lefties with huge contracts and no power
By Moby Grape
October 7, 2008 4:35 PM | Link to this
IMO. If San Diego is willing to accept JoJo and Morton/CampilloSteve
I’m sorry but I see no reason on earth that SD would be interested in taking Campy or JoJo in a trade for anybody, let alone Peavy. C’mon, those two guys have very little trade value. I think you’re kidding yourself if you think that any team is gonna take players like that in a trade for a stud pitcher except as # 4 or #5 throw-ins.
By FREEDOG
October 7, 2008 4:42 PM | Link to this
Of course we need pitching (I’d love Peavy!) and some more pop, but aren’t we forgetting about what we’ve desperately lacked the last few years – speed. It’s no coincidence that the 4 teams left have great team speed. The type that can mess with pitcher’s minds and pitches. Even if it’s Juan Pierre, I’ll take it.
By Josh
October 7, 2008 4:45 PM | Link to this
DOB I know that it would be only be educated speculation, but if the Braves traded KJ to bring back a pitcher of Peavy’s quality (the only way I think/hope they’d trade him is for a player of this caliber), do you think they would try to fill the 2B position internally, or bring in a Free Agent?
I suppose the internal options would consist of Small Bridge & Prado….I remember mid-season you threw out the idea of the team bringing Furcal back; with Peavy being relatively affordable for a couple years I think it could work.
By Mike
October 7, 2008 4:54 PM | Link to this
Hey Robert, why do you even bother coming on here??? Seriously, if you don’t like what DOB has to say, then why show up? If you don’t think Peavy would help this team, you’re lost. The guy is a legit ace, something the Braves need desperately. Enough with the Cox bashing too, it’s tired already.
By MGL
October 7, 2008 4:58 PM | Link to this
Moby - Campy had a 3.91 ERA in 158 IP. That’s the same ERA as Randy Johnson, John Lannan and Carlos Zambrano. He wore down as the season went on as he had pitched a full Mexican Winter League Season. I think he is more than a throw-in.
By Hoosier Aaron
October 7, 2008 5:11 PM | Link to this
With all due respect - I don’t think I’d simply call Ichiro a “slap hitting lefty” and I certainly can’t compare him to any lefty in our outfield.
I know you know his stats but - in 8 years in MLB he has a .331 avg, he averages 111 runs, 226 hits and 39 stolen bases not to mention a cannon for an arm.
Yes - he does have a huge contract for sure. But I’d love it if one of our current slap hitting lefties in the outfield were anything close to Ichiro.
By Lew
October 7, 2008 5:13 PM | Link to this
Y’all need to take a deep breath and get a grip. No matter how good a season that Jermaine Dye just had, the Braves are NOT going to trade Kelly Johnson, a player that will make maybe $2 mil next year and has much offensive upside plus “a couple of prospects” for Dye.
Y’all do realize that Dye has missed 210 games since 2002 and makes about $10 million? Not to mention KJ is what? 25? and Dye is 35.
By Efrim
October 7, 2008 5:19 PM | Link to this
Steve from OH
Take a step back and view this thing from a San Diego Padres perspective. Also, look at the types of packages traded for Dan Haren and Erik Bedard. Those are the two things I am thinking of when I say that the Braves will have to include Hanson or Heyward or Schafer.
I’m not questioning Frank Wren’s ability to get a deal done. He certainly has proven that he can.
ncscoots
You’re probably right, but again, I try to view things from SD’s perspective and think of worst case scenario in terms of the bounty needed to acquire Peavy.
By Original Jon
October 7, 2008 5:26 PM | Link to this
Shaun I read that on MLBTradeRumors.com that he may be available. Not sure how accurate the source is, but its what I heard.
By FSUBravesfan10
October 7, 2008 5:43 PM | Link to this
Whether it’s 09 or 2010, Peavy will end up having T.J surgery. I’m making the prediction and you read it here first.
Coach
Get over yourself, “you read it first?!?!” LOL Coach let’s be realistic here, you “predicting” he will need TJ surgery is like my dad predicting that, one day, in the next 2 years he will turn down the offer of a free cuban cigar…Maybe he will, maybe he won’t but it might happen!
Seriously dude get over yourself, not to mention, how many pitchers on each major league roster have had TJ surgery at some point in their careers?…It’s not like you are making a prediction that, Corky Miller WILL stop wearing stirrups (be honest it aint gunna stop) Here’s a prediction for you Coach, I predict that nobody who reads this blog, even remotely enjoy hearing what you have to say…But hey hold out hope that Dempster will not re-up with the Cubs and that Peavy will have TJ surgery in either 09 or 2010, wait. What? Oh… That’s right, Coach said it here 1st!
By Moby Grape
October 7, 2008 5:43 PM | Link to this
Moby - Campy had a 3.91 ERA in 158 IP. That’s the same ERA as Randy Johnson, John Lannan and Carlos Zambrano. He wore down as the season went on as he had pitched a full Mexican Winter League Season. I think he is more than a throw-in.MGL
Sorry , but I don’t. I’m not saying that he is a worthless pitcher, he might bounce back.I’m saying that he has no established trade value.Did he wear down, or did the league catch up to his low-speed junk pitches? I don’t know for sure-nor does anyone else-, but the way the last 6 weeks or so of the season went I seriously doubt that any team would rate him highly enough to be a meaningful part of a package for someone like Peavy. At this point I think he has more potential value to us than to another team.
By cabravesfan
October 7, 2008 6:04 PM | Link to this
Hoosier Aaron
My point was that we kinda have more pressing needs right now then those that Ichiro can fill…we’ve got a lot of (cheap, young) speedy guys that can hit singles (not that any of them are Ichiro but I don’t think he is worth it at this point)
By Hoosier Aaron
October 7, 2008 6:22 PM | Link to this
I knew exactly what you meant but just seeing Ichiro referred to as a slap hitting lefty kind of made me gasp for air.
By Jeff R
October 7, 2008 6:30 PM | Link to this
Does any major league pitcher these days not have a bad arm or a potential bad arm?
Having said that, if Peavy cleared a medical, and Wren could get him without giving up core prospects, I’m for making the trade.
By lin
October 7, 2008 6:34 PM | Link to this
what ever braves do we still will not get above 3rd place i see 2nd or 1st the year 2010, if we are lucky. we will win more games but not to get into play offs sorry. come on now braves prove me wrong i said 3rd this yr and u did 4th not bad for lucky guess.i still say smoltz and galvine in bullpen and mh if they keep him then maybe we be lot more stopping hitters but will their arms hold out. do inning no more 2 they may last whole season.oh well wait and see 2009
By cabravesfan
October 7, 2008 6:36 PM | Link to this
213 hits, 20 doubles, 7 triples, 6 hr…what else should i call him? Didn’t mean it as an insult- he does it better then just about anyone in the league, just not what we need right now
By Drew
October 7, 2008 6:38 PM | Link to this
Peavy even said himself his career interests are far more than money. If we could possibly acquire him, I don’t think any amount of money the Yankees could throw his way would change his mind.
Just be wary of the last pitcher in his prime that we brought over with a backloaded contract: his name rhymes with Mike Hampton.
Other than that, give up whatever we have to to bring him home; except for Jason Heyward & Schafer, since Schaf will be immeditately needed in in April 09 and Heyward is the future left handed Matt Holliday.
By Drew
October 7, 2008 6:41 PM | Link to this
DOB
Correct me if I’m wrong:
Peavy> C.C.>Sheets>battlestar galactica
Also,
What would it take for the Braves to get Peavy?
By garla
October 7, 2008 7:09 PM | Link to this
remember all the talk earlier in the year about whether Tex was worth the contract he’s gonna get? Most comments I read were that he was a very good player but not necessarily a difference maker. Well, you got to give him credit for a good postseason in which he hit .467. However, do you remember a series which a superstar hit that high and made less of a difference. Granted Garret Anderson in front of him didn’t have a great series but I think it’s a valid point.
By David O'Brien
October 7, 2008 7:10 PM | Link to this
Josh, that’s getting a bit ahead of ourselves, speculating how they would fill Kelly’s spot IF they traded Kelly. First I’d like to know whether San Diego would even want him, and whether the Braves would be willing to include him.
As for Furcal, I suggested that back when the Braves didn’t have the need to fill both the Nos. 1 AND 2 spots in their rotation. With Hudson out of the mix for all or most of 2009, they have to allocate majority of funds to filling pitching needs, not the eight-figure salary it’d take to bring Furcal back.
By Steve from OH
October 7, 2008 7:11 PM | Link to this
Efrim, Moby Grape:
Whoa, guys. You’re misinterpreting what I was trying to say (I agree with both of you, btw). All I’m saying is that Frank Wren wouldn’t just say “were not going to trade players x, y and z, but we’re still going to push hard to rebuild positions a and b” without having doggone good reason to say it. Makes me think that there is a lot more going on under the surface, so to speak. That’s all I was trying to say. Not trying to suggest that JoJo will bring back a king’s ransom in a trade. All I’m trying to say is that I’m sure FW must have had a pretty good feel on most of the trade fronts in order to make that statement with confidence.
By Steve from OH
October 7, 2008 7:22 PM | Link to this
Tommy Hanson threw two scoreless innings today in his AFL debut, striking out 1. Deunte Heath threw two scoreless as well. Kris Medlen gave up 2ER in 2 innings, with 2K. Steve Marek threw a scoreless inning.
No Braves hitters were in the lineup.
By Josh
October 7, 2008 7:36 PM | Link to this
Thanks DOB , fair enough. And I agree with your comment in the original blog post that if you were the team you wouldn’t want to give up KJ unless absolutely necessary. Including him for Peavy is one of only a few realistic scenarios in which loosing Kelly actually improves the team.
By charles
October 7, 2008 7:48 PM | Link to this
The Braves say they are looking for a power hitting outfielder.rather than spend millions on high price free agents why not trade for one.How about carl Crawford of the Tampa Bay Rays. I know that the Rays love Chuckie James so why not work out a package for him.Crawford is still young, has speed,can run and steal bases,has a good arm and can hit with power.
By Embizzle
October 7, 2008 7:57 PM | Link to this
DOB
Correct me if I’m wrong:
Peavy> C.C.>Sheets>battlestar galactica
That was spit my coffee all over my desk funny.
By Deep Throat
October 7, 2008 7:58 PM | Link to this
People, the Padres would want quality not quantity.
Your trade suggestions for Jake Peavy involving a bunch of quantity that no one really wants: Reyes, Morton, Blanco, Chuck James, Lillibridge, Manny Acosta, Jorge Campillo, Jeff Francoeur, etc., etc. just isn’t going to cut the mustard. We’re talking one of the best pitchers in the NL with four years left on his contract here. You could offer ALL the above players and it wouldn’t happen.
To get something good you have to give up something good. Heyward and/or Hanson would pretty much have to be in the deal. And so would at least 3-4 more quality prospects and/or players.
By Braveheart
October 7, 2008 8:03 PM | Link to this
The Braves say they are looking for a power hitting outfielder.rather than spend millions on high price free agents why not trade for one.How about carl Crawford of the Tampa Bay Rays. I know that the Rays love Chuckie James so why not work out a package for him.Crawford is still young, has speed,can run and steal bases,has a good arm and can hit with power.
damn, petrelli, in all that time travel, you missed a few things. the rays are now good and the braves suck, chuck james sucks and no longer has trade value, and, oh yeah, turns out that the sick psycho Sylar is actually your brother.
By Drew
October 7, 2008 8:16 PM | Link to this
Embizzle
I hope your desk didn’t include any sort of electronic device.
By Josh
October 7, 2008 8:30 PM | Link to this
Deep Throat
I agree; I don’t think it’s impossible to pull the trade off without touching the uber-prospects or ML guys but it’s going to be close to imposible. I think a realistic package could be Schafer, Tyler Flowers, Cole Rohrbough, Kris Medlen, Jeff Locke & Charlie Morton. Maybe the Padres would want Gorkys over Schafer? All I know is I’m going to be mulling over this all off-season!
Kevin Towers is going to re-create Naveen Andrews’ opening scene from “Planet Terror” when Wren comes-a-calling. (It’s on Starz HD right now haha)
By A FAN
October 7, 2008 8:33 PM | Link to this
Hey DOB just a question here but how do you thing JJ will do next year. you know he will pitch in the WBC this year for sure and we all saw what happened the last time one of our good players played in that thing A.K.A “Frenchy”.Hopefully they get knocked out ealry so he comes back to Dark Star. To get Peavy its gunna take a real great offer im sure the padres know what they want for him and i dont think its small bridge or kelly johnson its gunna take 1 if not 2 big boys of ours.
By ccrider
October 7, 2008 8:44 PM | Link to this
Deep Throat; Your Wrong! The Braves have enough Quality Prospects in the system to make a trade for Peavy, not to mention if they have an interest in Kelly Johnson. Gorky, Flowers, S.Diamond, Rohrborough, Hicks, T. Jones, B.Jones, K. Medlin, T. Redmond and a host of other highly regarded A Pitching prospects. San Diego Needs Quanity and Quality. They will not rebuild in 1 or 2 years, so they will have no problem taking 5 or 6 propsects that are not major league ready. The farm system is very deep in pitching. Frank Wren can make a trade for Peavy that does not include Hanson, Heyward, Schafer and Freeman.
By McFann Ô
October 7, 2008 8:58 PM | Link to this
A FAN you know he will pitch in the WBC this year for sure and we all saw what happened the last time one of our good players played in that thing A.K.A “Frenchy”.
I hope none of our players play in that thing.
By Efrim
October 7, 2008 8:59 PM | Link to this
Steve from OH
Sorry for the misinterpretation. I just look at those Haren and Bedard deals and think what we may have to give up for Peavy. Now, Haren is a different case considering how cheap his current contract is. The Bedard trade was just stupidity on the part of Bill Bavasi, who is now out of a job. Anyway, hopefully Cain, Greinke and others hit the trading block. I’d like to see Edwin Jackson on the Braves actually. I really think his stuff would translate better in the NL….whose wouldn’t, right? But he is a flame thrower with a good slide piece.
By JC from UT
October 7, 2008 9:09 PM | Link to this
Could all this Peavy talk be a way of getting SF to get involved in trading Matt Cain? Kind of like saying this is what we will give up for Peavy and Brian Sabean comes in and says I’ll take the same deal for Cain?
By Deep Throat
October 7, 2008 9:10 PM | Link to this
I know that the Rays love Chuckie James so why not work out a package for him.Crawford
Yeah, the Rays loved Chuck James two offseasons ago. James’ trade value isn’t exactly the same now as it was in December 2006.
By cabravesfan
October 7, 2008 9:25 PM | Link to this
Hey all- just a reminder reegarding Chuck James- He just had shoulder surgery- don’t think he’s going anywhere for a while…
By Moby Grape
October 7, 2008 9:31 PM | Link to this
All I’m trying to say is that I’m sure FW must have had a pretty good feel on most of the trade fronts in order to make that statement with confidence.Steve
Likely true, but it might just mean that he is not thinking of someone as highly regarded as Peavy to trade for. I hope you are right, but other teams are gonna try to get him too, and I will be very surprised if they trade for him at all, and if they do that he will not cost a lot in personnel. I’m thinking he is looking for something a little lower in the foodchain, or hoping for another young JJ type guy. I just know that every winter there are a lot of posts about trading for some stud and being overly optimistic about what it will take. Once in awhile a deal like the Hudson one does go down that seems too easy, but not very often. At this point promising young prospects in the minors probably will have more trade value than guys like JoJo or Campy or maybe even Morton. Not that one of these guys might not bounce back and become a decent pitcher.
By Steve from OH
October 7, 2008 9:42 PM | Link to this
Moby, re: “someone lower on the food chain.”
That’s exactly what I was referring to in my previous posts (I’ve already said that we don’t have much of a chance on Peavy if Frank keeps his word on Heyward et al)
I think he’s got something up his sleeve that we haven’t even remotely considered.
By ncscoots
October 7, 2008 9:53 PM | Link to this
Efrim, I agree that Bavasi might be a dolt, but, now that Bedard looks to be healthy in the spring, I’m not sure the trade is as bad as it originally looked.
Of the centerpieces, Adam Jones didn’t exactly light it up in Baltimore, and Sherrill had 31 saves but a 1.50 (!) WHIP. The other three kids, well, Butler basically disappeared, Tillman had a good (not dominant) year at AA, and the other guy I’ve completely forgotten, LOL.
So, for Bedard, the Mariners gave up a promising but undeveloped OF, a setup guy who was forced into closing, and three low-level (two of them touted, I’ll admit) years-away prospects.
But that kind of package doesn’t exactly scream Heyward, Hanson, and Schafer, does it? Certainly, you would think the Braves could offer a package of the same shape, but better potential, in a similar trade. As to whether that would be enough for a team other than the Mariners, LOL, I don’t know.
By Steve from OH
October 7, 2008 9:53 PM | Link to this
Efrim, Jackson would be OK but I would rather try for Andy Sonnanstine or Wade Davis (if the Rays decide to make him available, which I doubt, but it never hurts to ask). Sonnanstine has much better majors and minors numbers, if I recall correctly.
If John McCain says “my friends” one more time, I’m gonna lose it. I mean, even my buddy is freaking out a little, and he’s usually a pretty calm guy.
By Brian
October 7, 2008 9:57 PM | Link to this
DOB- Now, if the Braves don’t get Peavy, I blame you for the big tease! Hey, that’ll be your new name THE BIG TEASE! I’ll still read your blogs though.
By Steve from OH
October 7, 2008 10:00 PM | Link to this
And Efrim, I do agree with you (and others) that we’re going to have to give up a huge bounty for Peavy (and Grienke. He won’t be cheap). Probably not gonna happen. Magglio (no, I will not be reading any of Coach’s posts tonight) is much more feasible than any of the pitchers we’ve been talking about around here.
By Robert S
October 7, 2008 10:04 PM | Link to this
Peavy’s a homegrown talent from here in Mobile. He pitched for the AA Mobile Baybears before he was called up to San Diego, and so he is revered down here, so to have him pitch up the road in Atlanta would be perfect. I’d drive to Atlanta to see him perform. Go get him, as long as you don’t give up the farm.
By Steve from OH
October 7, 2008 10:11 PM | Link to this
Scoots, in fairness, Tillman is probably equivalent to Tommy Hanson. He’s a very highly touted prospect and performed admirably in AA as a 20(21?) year old. He K’d more than a batter an inning and had a 3.18 ERA.
By Efrim
October 7, 2008 10:11 PM | Link to this
ncscoots
Chris Tillman and Adam Jones are highly regarded. I’d go as far to say that you may see Tillman higher than Hanson on some prospects lists. Keep in mind that he was born in 1988…and he pitched the whole year in the Eastern League(Double A). He struck out 154 in 135 innings. Again, this is as a 20 year old in the Eastern League. Hanson turned 22 this year.
Not saying that you have ever done this, but I feel like a lot of people disregard the age at which a prospect plays in his league. I saw a lot of people this year knock Elvis Andrus saying that he was all glove no stick. The kid turned 20 at the end of August and posted a .350 OBP in Double A for crying out loud. That ain’t too bad if you ask me.
By Efrim
October 7, 2008 10:16 PM | Link to this
Steve from OH
Your boy is on the home page of Baseball America’s website. Pretty cool, I’d say.
Yes, I think Magglio will come cheaper than Greinke or Peavy or Cain.
I like Jackson’s upside in comparison to Sonnanstine. Better stuff. I think the Rays would rather part with either than give up 6 years of Wade Davis. I believe Jackson is controlled through 2011. I just think he is one of those guys that would benefit from a move away from the AL East. I think he would miss more bats in the NL. I don’t think he would cost as much either.
By McFann Ô
October 7, 2008 10:34 PM | Link to this
Oy…I’m ready for like…November 6…I think. Anyway, I’m ready for this stuff to be done with for another 4 years.
And I want it to be time for them to announce the Silver Sluggers…and I wanna go ta bed.
OH BOY!! Best words ever said in a debate: “Final question, now…”
Night, all.
By Steve from OH
October 7, 2008 10:40 PM | Link to this
McFann, I’ll second your 10:34, lol.
By nolie
October 7, 2008 11:08 PM | Link to this
But that kind of package doesn’t exactly scream Heyward, Hanson, and Schafer, does itScoots
Well it doesn’t scream all three of them, but I haven’t read anybody say it would take all three. But I don’t think the deals are all that different. I might be misremembering, but wasn’t Jones a very highly rated prospect near the top of the national listings at the time? I think he was rated the second best PCL prospect last winter, so he was at least somewhat on the level of Schafer or Hanson if not Heyward? And as you say a couple of the others were pretty highly touted. The fact that they haven’t done all that much so far doesn’t really mean anything about how they were thought of at that time. Just color me slightly skeptical about getting Peavy without some pain. in fact I agree with Steve and Moby that it’s unlikely to happen at all.
By Wayne
October 7, 2008 11:40 PM | Link to this
Tough choice tonight: Watch the debate, go out to dinner with friends. Watch the debate, go out to dinner with friends? Watch the debate…. you get the picture.
The ribeye was great!
While I love the possibility of getting Jake Peavy, I am still more piqued by the possibility of making a play for Matt Cain. Would take a bit less to get him, and he might have as good of an upside as Peavy. Still a bit of an unknown as to where he will fall: elite starter, or extremely good starter.
I am sure that if Sabean is interested, FW will call. Probably already has.
So many possible ways to go!!
I get excited just thinking about all the speculating…..
Oh, and BTW, I think the Mariner’s overpaid for Bedard. Markakis would be a real jewel to have, if we could afford the price.
Delmon Young, I am less excited about. Didn’t he have some personality issues???
Cincy is not renewing Bako. Would he be a decent BUC, as McFann is fond of saying? I think he is a lefty, but I guess that doesn’t matter.
By David O'Brien
October 7, 2008 11:48 PM | Link to this
A FAN, that’s apples and oranges, comparing Francoeur’s experience in the WBC to Jurrjens’ possible experience. Francoeur missed most ofhis first big-league camp while mostly riding the pine in that tournament. Jurrjens already has 1-1/2 years in the big leagues, he knows what it takes, and he’ll also be pitching, not riding the pine. And Curacao will be eliminated quickly and he’ll be back in camp anyway, not like Francoeur’s long absence with the U.S. team.
By David O'Brien
October 7, 2008 11:50 PM | Link to this
Braveheart, your 8:03 p.m. post cracked me up.
By N8
October 8, 2008 12:09 AM | Link to this
BravesFan79
Don’t get me wrong….I hate (pretty strong word - more like despise) ALL of the guys you mentioned.
But here’s the thing. NONE of them cost the Braves any games last year, so I could give a sh!t less about them. Make no mistake about it. If Francoeur helps little old ladies across the street, he should be commended for it.
But it doesn’t make him the right choice to play RF for the Braves, does it?
I’m rooting for him to “come back” next year. It’s two fold, really (if he isn’t traded this off-season).
1) If he has a comeback type year, THAT will help the Braves win games.
2) If he has a comeback type year, it will help Wren unload him after next year as guys like Heyward and Hernandez are on their way up.
Of course the third option, is that he has a comeback type of of year and the Braves lock him up long-term and he helps the Braves win for years to come.
Either way, nothing BAD can come out of him having a good year next year….other than it being a fluke, and THEN Wren locks him up, only to see him slip again in the future.
Finally. The following quote made me laugh. Not because it’s a funny statement. But because it’s so contradictory to itself, that the mere thought of it being taken seriously IS funny.
” For the record… i love black pple… but damn i hate stupid racist niggs…. “
Nice try though. I think I understand what you are TRYING to say. But you might wanna rethink your terminology.
Just a thought from a VERY white guy that lives in a VERY white state in the upper mid-west.
By Wayne
October 8, 2008 12:33 AM | Link to this
N8 Well said. Again, hate is a strong word. I hate that my 401K is in the toilet. I don’t hate stupid people.
It does tick me off though when we glamorize or make role models out of people (sports personalities are predominant) who are thugs or low-lifes. Skin color is not the issue.
I think that is probably what Bravesfan79 is trying to say, but doing a poor job of.
By mbatl
October 8, 2008 12:33 AM | Link to this
bf79, you are a racist and an idiot.
Just had to go on record with that. No response really needed.
By Brian
October 8, 2008 12:35 AM | Link to this
I guess you’re not suppossed to talk poilitics on this blog beacause my s** just got deleted! Man, people do take that too seriously- my mom’s one of them
By mbatl
October 8, 2008 12:43 AM | Link to this
N8, you really agree with grouping, say, Chad Johnson, who likes to talk a little trash after football games, with OJ Simpson? You want to put them both on the same boat “back to Africa?”.
Man, I’m seriously disappointed in you.
By BravesFan79
October 8, 2008 12:49 AM | Link to this
I agree with u N8 on Franceour… i dont see him being on the Braves more than 3 or so more years as i think him relying on natural talent…will make his career shorter than your average…. wade boggs or true all star u know. But for the next 2 or so years i see him being a VERY valuable piece 2 this team.
By Wayne
October 8, 2008 12:52 AM | Link to this
I think we all agree that racism, in any form is terrible.
Now, can we get onto our hot stove league?
What about Scott Thorman, Diory Hernandez, Dan Smith and Manny Acosta (got to include SOME value) for Ryan Freel!
By Wayne
October 8, 2008 1:15 AM | Link to this
N8 How ya been? Hope all is well with you.
I’ve been thinking about something lately, that maybe one of our stat geeks can answer. What was the Braves record w/ both Chipper and McCann in the lineup? What was the record with one playing? With neither playing?
And, did it change significantly with Tex gone?
My point: Our two best hitters are playing 85% or less of our games. My suspicions are that this is killing our offense when these guys are not in the lineup.
This is going to be a problem in the NL (no DH) when the catcher is that important. And the fact that Chipper is basically a 120 game per year guy, just makes it worse.
We have got to be able to keep a high OBP/OPS guy in the lineup for our three hole. Could KJ be that man when Chipper is out?
In our search for a power hitting outfielder, he truly needs to be capable of providing enough power to be an effective cleanup hitter.
While it is extremely important to get two decent starters, I think it is almost as important to get the thumpers needed, or developing them from within.
If we don’t get the right hitter to fill the bill(s), then I fear we are in wait for Heyward mode.
Whaddya think, my friend? (or anyone else)
By BravesFan79
October 8, 2008 1:17 AM | Link to this
Go Braves in 2009! At least were not the dumping ground for total crap like the Nationals are. You sure Stan Kasten runs that crew? really? wow someone tell him to put down the pipe….
By ObiWanKobe
October 8, 2008 1:18 AM | Link to this
BravesFan79, I’d suggest hockey; If you’re that ignorant. I’m about as white as they get and went to high school where 90% of the student body was Latino. I theb played college basketball where the only other “white” person was Aistralian, coaching staff included. It boils down to if you are a good person then you can fit in. If not you get an inferiority complex which is quite evident in your case. I hope the “79” in your screen name references the year of your birth. If that’s so you have a future, if not you will continue to hate life. Do us all a favor and rent “Mississippi Burning” & “Do the Right thing”
By David O'Brien
October 8, 2008 1:18 AM | Link to this
Wayne, if you’re serious about Freel, how does that help the Braves in their pursuit of more OF power?
This is a Braves team that had the fewest OF homers of any team in the majors (by a wide margin), and you want to trade for an OF who has a .376 career slugging percentage, who’s totaled three homers and 26 RBI in 408 at-bats over the past two seasons? (and, I might add, just 21 steals in 33 attempts in that two-year span).
By ObiWanKobe
October 8, 2008 1:31 AM | Link to this
I also remember seeing Kobe Bryant, Chris Bosch, Lisa Lesie and others cheering on Phelps. It must also hurt you that Brian Clay won the Decathalon. It probably also pains you that Colin Powell & Condeleza Rice were/are signifigant members of Bush’s team. Clarence Thomas on the Supreme Court must suck too… Oh and with Obama being the next President surely rubs you the wrong way. I know there’s room in the Government prison; you can take McVeigh’s cell and hang out w/ Eric Ruldoph - a real American hero… Go to bed, take an advil & lay off the Pabst Blue Ribbon.
By mbatl
October 8, 2008 1:31 AM | Link to this
Good job, DOB/AJC.
Back to the Braves …
It sounds like the Braves have lett the door open to Smoltz and Glavine, if they feel good in January. And expressed interest in Hampton coming back.
I’m guessing that on the whole, those three will take up $15 mil of the mythical $45 mil we have to spend. Is that a bad guess?
By Wayne
October 8, 2008 1:32 AM | Link to this
Come on Dave, can’t you tell when your leg is being pulled? Freel, Figgins, Crawford, were all last years news!
:-)
Actually, I like a lot of guys out there, but Magglio Ordonez would be my pick of the litter. (Markakis and Jason Bay would be close seconds). Mags cause he would be the perfect bridge to Heyward.
I still love Matt Cain, although I think the Giants would be crazy to deal him without asking for a kings ransom. (I also like Peavy)
By David O'Brien
October 8, 2008 1:36 AM | Link to this
Wayne, so you really think your Freel trade suggestion was that out of line with some of the actual, sincere suggestions that people have made here?
No, my friend, it wasn’t.
Yes, it was preposterous, which is why I reacted as I did. But it wasn’t so over-the-top compared with some other trade suggestions we see here, as to make it obvious you were kidding.
By BravesFan79
October 8, 2008 1:37 AM | Link to this
What about Corky Miller for Peavy? Man what would we ever do without our defensive specialist tho!! Will we survive 2009 without!?? ………making fun of all you that defended letting Pena go, which by the way started our slide towards the bottom when Escobar went into a slump like i predicted…..
By David O'Brien
October 8, 2008 1:38 AM | Link to this
mbatl, I think you’re estimate is high on those three, if they all come back.
By fastasballs
October 8, 2008 1:43 AM | Link to this
Well this blog is much more interesting than the debate was. I enjoy politics, but that was BORING to say the least. You could just see the “we’re screwed” looks on the people’s faces that sat in the town hall listening to those two bumble & stumble their way around the issues. Sad, truely sad, but one of those two will shortly be our President.
At the rate my 401K & business is tanking I really don’t care which of the two evils will inhabit the White House.
Alright enough negativity, it’s time for some Braves talk. Wayne Insert Carl Crawford for Freel & I’m with you, LOL.
I’m really feeling this Peavy deal, although there isn’t anything to it at this point, but some blog rumor.
Folks think back to what JS gave up for Hudson, who, would be considered at that point in his career an equal to Peavy. The Braves gave up Dan Meyer, Charles Thomas & Juan Cruz. Meyer wasn’t rated anywhere near as high as Hanson is today. He was the 15th ranked player in the Southern League in 2005, Hanson was 9th & only completed about a half season, maybe less with Mississippi. Thomas had a solid season for the Braves, but that’s about it, & Cruz could be compared to Acosta.
Deals are made that sometimes leaves the fans scratching their heads. Other GM’s sometimes place a higher value on lessor prospects for whatever reason. The Braves have a history of getting the better value in trades. There are a few exceptions. I don’t count the Tex trade as a failure because Kotchman could turn into a very good player or net the Braves a few prospects if he’s traded when Freeman is ready, or both. Andy Marte got us several years of very good production from Edgar & then JJ & Gorkys was acquired for Edgar.
Maybe Wren pulls a trade with Tampa Bay who has a glut of starting pitching. Maybe Cain or Greinke? Who knows at this point, but count on him getting the better of the trade. He has to this point in his deals & until I see otherwise I like what he has done.
By John Scherholtz wears rainbow suspenders
October 8, 2008 1:45 AM | Link to this
Lillibridge, Gorkys Hernandez sent back, and Manny Acosta to Motor City Kitties for Magglio and a low level prospect pitcher, and I’ll second the motion for Paul Bako as a BUC(Back Up Catcher), not Pirate.
By Wayne
October 8, 2008 1:50 AM | Link to this
If the Braves decide to (or have to due to $$ circumstances) go on the cheap for an outfielder, I am not to thrilled with most of the FA’s available. For affordable FA’s, I guess Juan Rivera would be my pick. He has a possible decent upside.
As for cheaper alternatives for trade, I think Willingham, Swisher, and Winn would be some decent picks. The Cards have an outfielder that might be interesting in Joe Mather. He has some pop, and has played some first and third.
Would it be worth a flier to pick up Rocco?
As for cheaper FA pitchers, my short list would include Wolf, Penny and Garland.
Too much info…sorry
By ObiWanKobe
October 8, 2008 1:56 AM | Link to this
DOB, Know Chipper’s blogged here before, would love to hear from everyone. Especially, Smoltz, McCann (Probably concured by McFann), Yunel (not sure about the translation). I’d also like to see Bobby interact w/ us, but that’s a pipe dream. I think you’d be able to get Wren or John S to participate. This being the greatest MLB Blog on the web. I’d also like to hear about the mental state of the bullpen guys too.
By Al Davis' Jogging Suit
October 8, 2008 1:58 AM | Link to this
I didn’t realize the Philadelphia Phillies have won only one world championship in 125 years of existence
By Wayne
October 8, 2008 2:14 AM | Link to this
Dave In the future, when “pulling the leg”, I will include a LOL or a smily face.
Does anyone else think that our guy Norton and Diaz are competing for the same slot? (if indeed either are still Braves in the spring)
Also, anybody else wish that we could pick up somebody who could actually fill in for Chipper with a tad bit more power than Infante and Prado? Wouldn’t it be nice if that person could also play some backup first base, and the corner outfield positions. Our version of Mark DeRosa.
Some possibles: Casey Blake (too much $$ for a DeRosa clone?), Jeff Baker (splits away from Coors?), Rich Aurilia (he loves NoCal, and can he play the outfield?), Wiggington (would the ‘stros deal him?), and Teahan (too valuable for KC?)
How about Joe Mather of the Cards? Can he handle third to be put in there 30-40 games a year?
Enough speculating for one night.
By Wayne
October 8, 2008 2:15 AM | Link to this
fastasballs I believe that FW will not disappoint this winter.
By Wayne
October 8, 2008 2:27 AM | Link to this
Sorry to keep harping, my friends, but..
With a guy like Casey Blake, he has played quite a bit in the outfield in 05 and 06. He can also play third and first.
Blake is a 270-280 hitter, with 20-25 HR’s and 80+ RBI’s, if hitting in the right spots. OK with OBP and SLG, but not outstanding.
What he would give us is a more pop at third, when Chipper is out, and a decent left field option when Chipper is playing. I think it would be easier to get an outfielder with some pop off the bench than a third baseman off the bench (Infante and Prado, good average, no real pop).
With this sort of scenario, then a guy like Diaz or BJones or some other outfield acquisition might be more desireable than bringing in Prado or Infante.
Hey, I like those guys, but not as my corner position players.
If Mags is not the answer, would my scenario work?
By BravesFan79
October 8, 2008 3:08 AM | Link to this
ObiWanKobe: Nope Chris Bosh is a ex GT hooper and i pull for him. always liked the other pple u named as well except Kobe. So someone says the n word and there automatically a racist? Perhaps some use it to describe people with a certain behavior pattern, not a certain race. While i admit that its a flawed idea to use that word under any conditions…. i cant think of a better use of it than to describe certain rappers and others.
And one of my favorite movies is American history X. Face it i just know more about black culture and what its all about than you do. And trust me…those cats dont care how “good of a person” you are. That kinda of thinking will only make u their next victim my friend.
Dont get it twisted tho..i also think that well have to watch out for illegal mexicans more often as well in the future now that the economy is down.
But i think on average they have more morals due to their catholic upbringing.
Keep pretending tho because you knew one black person back in 1965 that you know how it is with the young ones today. Not saying there all worthless……disease spreading, fatherless kids making….all about $$ scumbags…. just around 30% or so of the males under 35 ish.
If you dont believe me go look up violent crime, STD, and fatherless kid stats. Whys Spelman and Morehouse have like 30 girls to every 1 guy? Why are more than 70% born out of wedlock??
Why do clubs in Atlanta go to the crapper after they start advertising on the black radio stations?? Compound is a perfect example after they had to close down after some shootings.
Hey im just glad the Braves dont have any of those “all about me” fools on their team. Makes me proud to be a Braves fan.
Asians have asian pride, mexicans have mexican pride, yet whites have white pride and speak the truth and there racist.
And for the record ive dated black women, white, and asians. Guess you gotta be Bill Cosby, Obama, or Carlos Mencia to speak the truth these days… because if u look like Imus your going to get sacrificed in the media….but then again Obama got killed as well after jessy jackson said (OMG…… this house negro is talking down to black men) see not even Obama could be real because hes trying to win a election and backed off his words.
See they call the good and smart ones house negros, or uncletoms. I call those my friends and neighbors tho, and am proud to do so because there good pple.
By BravesFan79
October 8, 2008 3:18 AM | Link to this
Baseball only now! I sure hope we get Peavy. But we also must keep Ohman. Im looking forward to us having possibly the 2nd best bullpen in baseball next to the Angels next season. Imagine if we got Peavy AND Roy O.
And ive been calling for Jermaine Dye… but didnt think about him making 10 mill/year and being that old.
I just know the guys clutch.
How about if we brought back Renteria, started KJ at 2nd, and had Escobar as the ultimate platoon player with Renteria at SS, and that would also give us a GREAT backup to Chipper at 3rd when he needs a rest.
Face it folks…. our backups have killed us the last 2 seasons (especially chris woodcrap the season before) This solves that need, as well as puts another good bat on the bench by whoever sits out (Renteria, Escobar, Chipper, or KJ) We all know how much Bobby loves crappy platoon platoon players and loves to give days off 2 the stars. This keeps us from yelling at the TV so much on those games that look like giveaway games before the first pitch is even thrown.
By BA
October 8, 2008 3:33 AM | Link to this
Georgetown kid, I like your posts generally. But NO way do I trade JJJ for anybody. Seriously. Not after three years of watching young pitchers nibble around the edge of the zone and then get lit up when the have to come in (behind in the count). I think absolutely Jurrjens could get to Peavy’s caliber (though he’ll probably never have Peavy’s stuff). That kid has icewater running through his veins.
But the second part of your post, Morton/Johnson/low-level prospect for Peavy, that’s closer, but they’ll want more. Like Morton/Johnson/Redmond/Flowers/Heath (or a comparable AA pitcher). That’s just one example. But it will take quite a package. More than Hudson (who I think was a STEAL). Hell, Towers might want 3 pitchers.
Now a bunch of self-proclaimed experts (or maybe in DOB’s case, an actual expert) are going to scold my suggestions as being either too much or too little. Oh yeah, and
has anybody seen ugabrave?
the mini fridge?
the candy bars in the freezer?
maybe he is the guy that can regulate Wall street.
By jaglawyer
October 8, 2008 3:34 AM | Link to this
Battling insomnia tonight, so I just read two days worth of posts. I had to comment on DOB’s haul of cigars post from yesterday. Please tell me you were a regular at El Credito, the “cigar heaven” in Little Havana, during your Florida days?
By BA
October 8, 2008 3:48 AM | Link to this
Bravesfan79 is spot on- bringing back Renteria could also help ease the deep-seeded unresolved pain that Escobar has suffered since the departure of his confidant Bryan Pena.
By N Nine
October 8, 2008 5:28 AM | Link to this
If i could get a quarter for everytime i read something with Escobar and Bryan Pena in the same sentence.
Peavy-Braves ‘09
By Bravesfaninmetsland
October 8, 2008 8:07 AM | Link to this
DOB:
I had to check in with you after last night’s Shield. Was that a crazy ride or what?I’m totally with you on The Amos and the mexis being a pain in the neck to follow but maybe now we can get down and dirty with mackey and Shane.
Does anyone here watch Dexter? That was another amazing show this past Sunday.
By richbrave
October 8, 2008 8:26 AM | Link to this
BA:
JJ is sacrosanct - untouchable. You da’ man.
By flange1
October 8, 2008 8:39 AM | Link to this
Good Morning All,
A few Random thoughts:
Got to play in a golf tournament yesterday and had the honor of meeting Phil Niekro. He was very nice and quite funny. He gigged me three times on stage picking up prizes. I was lucky enough to get him to sign a hat for me. I now have 3 autographed hats of three of my 4 favorite athletes, Arnold Palmer, Ben Hogan and Phil Niekro. Now I just need a Hank Aaron and I will be set!
GREAT discussion on Jake Peavy. We had some preliminary discussions last week and this added to the mix. Steve in Ohio and Efrim have given us some excellent comparisons of what we can expect to have to give up for Jake.
I really think Steve from Ohio is on to something with his thoughts that FW has a deal or two already in the works. And while the Braves have some money to spend, I really think they will get the players they need from trades.
If you look at the pitchers that are on the FA market, CC will probably sign in CA or in NY, Dempster is said to be interested in signing back with the Cubs, the Yankees are said to be “all in” for D Lowe, I think Sheets will sign back with the Brewers, that leaves Garland and maybe Burnett as the 2 top tier guys left.
Maybe the Braves can jump on Burnett, (I hope they pass on Garland).
I have a strong feeling that Ian Snell is on his way to the Braves.
Should be a fun winter….
By richbrave
October 8, 2008 8:42 AM | Link to this
J.L.:
Plueeze. Everybody makes mistakes.
By McFann Ô
October 8, 2008 9:01 AM | Link to this
Steve from OH I’ll second your 10:34, lol.
Haha…Yeah, it’s kinda getting old. “He didn’t support this” “He lied about that”. OK. Gotcha. I want what’s best for the great Country of ours, but jeepers-creepers!
I’ll just say this: There’s only a handful of things that cann grab my int’rest past the 10pm hour, and a presidential debate isn’t one of them. (Especially when they make me miss my mann’s last hit of the season)
Wayne Cincy is not renewing Bako. Would he be a decent BUC, as McFann is fond of saying? I think he is a lefty, but I guess that doesn’t matter.
Oo! Paul Bako! I like! He only hit .214 in 299 AB this year, but that’s a better AVG then our two BUC (yer right, I like to say that) combined.
He is a lefty…that may present a problem. Frank prob’ly wants a righty, you know, somebody that cann “hit lefties”…
ObiWanKobe would love to hear from everyone. Especially, Smoltz, McCann (Probably concured by McFann)
Yeah!!! I concur!!
By McFann Ô
October 8, 2008 9:10 AM | Link to this
Actually, it prob’ly wouldn’t matter that Bako is a lefty, since our BUC never plays.
By Lew
October 8, 2008 9:46 AM | Link to this
There are some Denizens in need of counseling -Some for Racism, some for actually proposing Ryan Freel again.
By Efrim
October 8, 2008 9:59 AM | Link to this
There are some Denizens in need of counseling -Some for Racism, some for actually proposing Ryan Freel again.
And of course, anyone who proposes Jon Garland. I just noticed the man gave up 237 hits in 196 innings while posting a 59/90 BB/K ratio. That screams 5th starter…..no matter what league he is pitching in.
By DAP
October 8, 2008 10:00 AM | Link to this
if we sign a BUC this offseaosn, it will be with the leftovers. id say, as of now, bank on it being clint sammons.
By Steve from OH
October 8, 2008 10:10 AM | Link to this
Efrim, look on the bright side: maybe the Mets will sign Garland for a nice big contract. I’ll bet Minaya is dumb enough to do it.
By Efrim
October 8, 2008 10:19 AM | Link to this
Steve from OH
Actually, I would like him to pitch in a nice small ballpark like Philly. I wonder what the numbers would look like. Eeesh.
By McFann Ô
October 8, 2008 10:20 AM | Link to this
would love to hear from everyone. Especially, Smoltz, McCann
Oh wow…But if that did happen…I don’t know what the heck I’d say…holy cow…
DAP—
Yeah, it’ll prob’ly be Sammons. But, it’s fun to pretend.
I agree, though, that if they did sign a BUC, it would be with leftover money; ‘cause that’s definitely not a primary need.
Hmm…someone must be standin’ on our roof spraying a hose all over the place. It’s all wet outside…so weird…
What? That’s called “Rain”? It comes from the clouds? Cool…I think I like it.
By TommyP
October 8, 2008 10:26 AM | Link to this
Posted this morning but the blog wasn’t working quite right. Might have been sleeping in since the season is over…. I’ll repost those thoughts this afternoon concerning the Peavy talk.
Steve from OH: We’ve actually had a few on here support going after Garland and I’ve never understood it. There are some players whose name is bigger than their game. He’s one of them. This usually occurs when players have a nice postseason and everyone seems to just remember those results and forget the 162 game schedule. (I never understood the love affair with Jeff Suppan after a nice postseason)
Flange1: Tell me more why you “have a feeling” Snell is coming.
Just read where Boras is looking for a 5 year deal for $85 million for Manny.
Would the Braves nibble there???? Definitely won’t give him 5 years but for 3 years? Would “Manny being Manny” work in Atlanta? Under Bobby Cox?
By Braveheart
October 8, 2008 10:33 AM | Link to this
I saw Josh Bard got released. He had a bad year last year but is intriguing to me as the BUC.
By DAP
October 8, 2008 10:43 AM | Link to this
Tommy P Would “Manny being Manny” work in Atlanta? Under Bobby Cox?
nope. i dont even think there is a point in even thinking about this happening. it aint gonna.
By Jeff R
October 8, 2008 10:43 AM | Link to this
Snell would be a good acquistion if all the Braves need to surrender are a couple of mid level prospects (say Lillibridge as one. The Pirates are planning on jettisoning Jack Wilson, and may be in the market for a shortstop ).
The word on Snell is that he backslid this season. Seems to the case, but its hard to say why. Might be due to poor coaching.
By StingerSplash
October 8, 2008 10:46 AM | Link to this
And Holly Madison’s a free agent too! Oh, wait, different blog. Sorry.
By DAP
October 8, 2008 10:48 AM | Link to this
braveheart bard had a horrific year. youve got to think, though, that at 30, he’s not going to stay at a .549 OPS, especially since hi career average, including this last terrible year, is .728. thats not bad for a bcak up catcher. plus, if he has been released, he might be able to be had for a minor league contract, or for the minimum. good eye, braveheart.
By DAP
October 8, 2008 10:52 AM | Link to this
Jeff R The word on Snell is that he backslid this season. Seems to the case, but its hard to say why. Might be due to poor coaching.
i noticed that his numbers were way below normal…he never had a good W-L, but that was mostly because of his poor team. this year, his ERA was up as well. maybe he wasnt playing well because his team is so bad. maybe the motivation is leaving him. hes got pretty good stuff. i wouldnt hate having him…but i dont think hes an ace like some people do.
By flange1
October 8, 2008 10:57 AM | Link to this
TommyP,
I am trying to find the article on line that suggested the Snell to ATL rumor. When I find it I will post a link.
A few pieces of info that might help to strengthen this rumor:
The Pirates are in rebuilding mode and are looking to restock their system
The Pirates have indicated that Jack Wilson might be traded so they are looking for a young SS.
The Pirates traded Bay and Nady last year. They have a couple of great CF prospects, but could have an interest in a corner OF that is LH (B Jones)
Snell had a poor year.
The Braves have had interest in Snell in the past.
By DAP
October 8, 2008 11:04 AM | Link to this
bravesheart actually, i just checked, and bard is a free agent anyways…so getting him for the league minimum might not happen. but, we might could get him for cheap.
By McFann Ô
October 8, 2008 11:15 AM | Link to this
DAP, Braveheart—
Bard got released, eh? Hmm…He had a bad year, yes, but he’s not bad for a BU.
Only thing is…his career CS% is about the same as McCann’s, which is app. 19% (well, using baseball-reference.com, McCann’s is 22%, and Bard’s is 19%, but those stats include pick-offs by the pitchers, which bugs the heck outta me. So you gotta figure they’re both around 18%).
But otherwise, Bard’s not bad.
By Bruce's Pearl
October 8, 2008 11:44 AM | Link to this
flange1- to add more speculation take into consideration that the Braves were close to acquiring Bay at the deadline,presumably for Lillibridge,Branden Jones,and others,suggesting to me that we match up with the Pirates.Who though would you rather have between Snell and Zack Duke?I like Snell a little better.
By David O'Brien
October 8, 2008 11:45 AM | Link to this
TommyP, I’ll say what I’ve said many times before: Manny to Braves isn’t happening. It’s just not. Not because you or I does or doesn’t want it to happen, but because those who make the decisions don’t.
(Not to mention the price and long-term contract he’ll command. And by the way, Manny Ramirez’s recent performance should assure he won’t have to settle for a three-year deal, and if he did it would only be because he wanted a higher per-year salary).
By Corey
October 8, 2008 11:49 AM | Link to this
Peavy would be great! I would also be happy with free agents Dempster, Lowe or Burnett. Also, Oswalt, Duchscherer & Greinke may be available through trades. The Braves have plenty of options. Adding any 2 of these guys would instantly fix the rotation.
As far as an outfielder goes, Abreu, Ibanez, Dunn, Giles & Burrell are all free agents. And, Holliday, Bay, Nady & Delmon Young may be available through trades.
There is no reason the Braves should not succeed in getting 2 of these pitchers and 1 of these outfielders with 40-45 million to spend. And, if they do, they will back atop the NL East where they belong!
By Kentavo
October 8, 2008 11:55 AM | Link to this
Hey DOB and denizens, have you seen the Z-man, Kotsay pickin’ it over at 1B for the BoSox? Why wasn’t he utilized like that with the Bravos, especially when Kotchman was absent?
Or better yet, couldn’t he have been used at 1st, and the Tex deal could have netted us some ready for MLB pitching instead of Kotchman?
By flange1
October 8, 2008 11:58 AM | Link to this
Bruce’s Pearl,
Excellent point on the Bay deal! I agree the Braves and the Pirates have had deep conversations on players and I do think we match up well.
I would much rather have Snell than Duke. Duke has never really been a favorite of mine.
Snell has decent stuff and a decent head on his shoulders. He has shown some emotion on the field which I think is a good thing.
We will see………….
By DAP
October 8, 2008 11:58 AM | Link to this
up until this year, i didnt even think snell was the best pitcher the pirates had. tom gorzelany has had good results up until this year as well. better than snell’s, in fact. snell has better stuff, however, and it seems like gorzelany’s head isnt right.
By StingerSplash
October 8, 2008 12:00 PM | Link to this
flange1,
A Ben Hogan autograph? Honestly, that is impressive. Major kudos/props to you.
By DAP
October 8, 2008 12:20 PM | Link to this
Corey love that enthusiasm, dude.
As far as an outfielder goes, Abreu, Ibanez, Dunn, Giles & Burrell are all free agents. And, Holliday, Bay, Nady & Delmon Young may be available through trades.
if it were me, subtract ibanez, giles and burrell from that list, and add casey blake, mike cameron, magglio ordonez, nick swisher, jermaine dye, and josh willingham.
there are just many ways we could go with it.
i think that if we add mike cameron or nick swisher, we should play them in center most of the time and get casey blake, who can play left and fill in for chipper. to me, that is the perfect senerio for our offense. a CF, and a LF, both with good power, and a back up for chipper.
if we dont do this, one of the elite LF need to be gotten, like dunn (im warming to the idea of having him) ordonez, or dye.
By flange1
October 8, 2008 12:22 PM | Link to this
StingerSplash,
The Hogan autograph is very special to me. I grew up in a golfing family and I was actually named for Ben Hogan. My first set of irons were Hogans and for most of my younger years I thought it was cool to wear the Hogan snap-brim hat!
I have a friend that caddies on tour that got to meet Hogan at a tour event in Texas. He got me the autographed hat. He actually wore it for the round. Said he had hundreds of folks asking to buy it from him…
By TommyP
October 8, 2008 12:26 PM | Link to this
Flange1: Good stuff. People can agree or disagree but at least you’ve put some thought into it. I would think that Snell would be PART of the rebuilding, however.
DOB: Never endorsed a Manny signing or said I was against it.
Just throwing it out there since Boras came out saying he was looking for a 5 year deal.
5 years guaranteed for Manny? I just can’t see that happening. The guy is 36, right?
What he did with the Dodgers is the stuff of legends but 5 years would be awfully tough to do with him. 41 years old and making $20 million or so?
If he gets a 5 year deal, I would imagine there’s a team-option(s) in there somewhere.
By WaitTilNextYear
October 8, 2008 12:38 PM | Link to this
I don’t weigh in a lot, although I enjoy the conversation on DOB’s blog. Several things have jumped out at me in the past few months. First, you have got to make a decision on right field. IF Jeff Franceour continues like he did this season, the ship begins to sink quickly. Run production from RF is a must. Second, Josh Anderson looked like a true leadoff man in CF. Can he do that over the course of a whole season? IF so, he’s your CF and leadoff man. Third, Martin Prado has got to play. He’s just a spark plug to the offense. He’s also pretty good defensively wherever he is played. Why not put him at second and move KJ to left field? Your woes in LF are over. This also leaves Brandon Jones as trade bait. I will not be very popular in my next opinion, but I say move Yunel Escobar. Brent Lillibridge is certainly equal to Escobar defensively to say the least. He has more speed and Escobar just doesn’t deliver run producing hits. While Atlanta needs bats, they also need speed to manufacture runs when necessary. Finally, I say sign John Smoltz again if he is content with pitching out of the bullpen. ONLY if he is content with pitching out of the bullpen. Braves fans can’t stand another season of depending on Smoltz, Glavine, Hampton and the rest of the senior citizens squad to carry them to the playoffs. If you can trade for Jake Peavy, I like him and Jurrgens as the good start to the rotation. Add one more front line pitcher and one bat and you’re in the playoffs. The bullpen will do fine IF they can stay healthy.
By Hoosier Aaron
October 8, 2008 12:43 PM | Link to this
This is a very interesting topic - I’ve been reading most of the responses to see how many have the same thoughts that I have…not many apparently.
Here is my thought(s) - I personally am not in favor of spending several million dollars per year or dredging our prospects on a (insert your favorite pitcher here).
I personally think we have a #1 starter right now. I define #1 starter as one I think has a chance to win each and every time he toes the rubber. Jurrjens is that guy…I think.
Now, if I’m Wren I have to ask myself. Based on the performance this year - who on my current roster do I really trust winning games next year. Let me qualify that by saying that based on Wren’s comments he fully expects to be a serious contender next year. Based on that - not many…I think Campillo can win. I do not trust Reyes, James or Morton. Parr looked okay but that was a few starts. I cannot really count on Hampton or Glavine. So - for me that leaves me with JJ and Campillo (I can see him as a 12 game winner).
Now - only 4 pitchers won 20 games this year. I think there were something like 9 or 10 that won 17 or 18.
Is it worth dredging our farm system and throwing down millions of dollars for a #2 or #3 starter to win maybe 15 - 17 games? For me the answer is no.
I PERSONALLY would like to see us be able to go 5 deep in our rotation with guys that can win 12 - 16 games. JJ giving us 18 - 20.
So - apparently we like Roger McDowell as our pitching coach. I personally think we have one of the best if not THE best group of scouts in baseball and we apparently (according to Wren) have a deep crop of prospects.
Instead of (again) dredging our system in search of Peavy or whomever - let our scouts do their job and McDowell do his job and go 5 deep in our rotation instead of Peavy, JJ and rolling the dice on 3 guys who are afraid of pitching to contact. By scouts doing their job - I mean find us the guys that we think can give us a quality start (nearly) ever time and we’ll go get them. We have the resources.
Please do not tie up 18% of our payroll on one guy whose success is based on a ligament in his shoulder.
In my opinion - I’d much rather have a chance to win everyday than hoping we can get a quality start or two until we can get to Peavy or JJ again.
By flange1
October 8, 2008 12:44 PM | Link to this
TommyP,
I understand your thoughts on Snell being a part of the rebuilding process. I think he might have worn out his welcome and the pitchers acquired for Bay might be ahead of him in the Pirated minds.
I think the Peavy situation is similar. The Padres are looking to reduce payroll. They were in the playoffs in 2007 and played very poorly in 2008.
How do you sell the payroll reduction to your fans? In my mind you pull a FL Marlins and sell all of your expensive players for prospects and try to rebuild.
I don’t know what Kevin Towers is going to do, but I don’t see how you can keep Giles, Peavy, and Hoffman and reduce your payroll.
Other than A Gonzalez and K Greene there is not much in salary on that team!
I know that they are trying to reclaim salary from K Greene because he hurt himself in a display of anger, so I look for him to be traded.
By Shaun
October 8, 2008 12:46 PM | Link to this
Manny is no doubt an elite hitter and could be for at least another year or two. But he’s 36, he doesn’t add any value on defense or on the bases and he’ll command a huge salary.
Once his hitting skills decline to a point where he’s just an average offensive leftfielder, he’ll become a pretty ordinary player, which could be fairly soon at his age.
I think there is a very good chance that some team is going to sign Manny to a deal they will very much regret in three, maybe two years.
By Shaun
October 8, 2008 12:52 PM | Link to this
Kentavo, you really think a 32-year-old, .281/.337/.414 hitter who had played only 28 games at first would have been a good option as the Braves’ everyday firstbaseman? Correct me if I’m wrong but that seems to be what you were implying: Trade Tex for pitching and make Kotsay the firstbaseman.
By TommyP
October 8, 2008 12:59 PM | Link to this
Flange1: Again, good stuff. Made for a good read.
Not up to date on whether Snell has worn out his welcome or anything like that but last season he was lights out. Have to worry ‘bout injuries with that big of a dropoff this past season.
Hoosier Aaron: We are thinking alike. I’ll post more about this later ‘cause this morning the blog wasn’t working when I tried…however, if I’m talking to S.D., I’m talking about Chris Young, not Peavy. (I’ll get deeper into that later….too much work for me to do ‘til then)
Don’t spend all your money on 2 guys, maybe 3 overall.
Get younger, cheaper (in terms of prospects and salary) but still with the upside. By doing this, we’ll also have money to address the (gasp!) BENCH.
I suggested this last September-November for our CF problem. I suggested McLouth as the #1 target for us.
More later….duty calls.
By Renegator
October 8, 2008 1:02 PM | Link to this
Shaun: It wouldn’t surprise me if that team was the Mets. I mean Manny Ramirez is all 3 things that Minaya looks for in a player - old, expensive & hispanic.
By DAP
October 8, 2008 1:10 PM | Link to this
Hoosier Aaron
youre so wise. like a miniature budda covered in hair.
i agree with you, but i think its ONE way we can go. i mentioned awhile back that we could go the route of the 2006 mets. we get OK starting pitching (like you are talking about) a very good offense and a very good bullpen, and you can win. having a starting staff that can just keep you in it only works when you have a really good offense, one that can come from behind and put up big innings, and a solid bullpen to hold off the other team once your starter is done.
but you still have to have starter who will keep you in it. i think thats exactly what the braves are gonna try to do, but if they can get a lights-out top tier pitcher… why shouldnt they do that?
By Shaun
October 8, 2008 1:19 PM | Link to this
I suggested this last September-November for our CF problem. I suggested McLouth as the #1 target for us.
Do the Braves have a centerfield problem? One of their top prospects is a centerfielder. They have two decent options in Gregor Blanco and Josh Anderson.
I think the Pirates would want at least Schafer or even Jurrjens for McLouth at this point. And I’m guessing last September-November the Pirates had an idea that McLouth would be pretty good given what he did in 2007 and what he did throughout his minor league career. The Pirates would probably have wanted a lot for McLouth even back then, especially now that they seem to have a front office that knows what they are doing.
By ncscoots
October 8, 2008 1:32 PM | Link to this
By doing this, we’ll also have money to address the (gasp!) BENCH.
Considering that the bench is probably the one area where the Braves are already solid. Re-signing Norton or seeking a different PH deluxe is the only real question. Prado, Infante, Norton (or the like), a fourth OF from within the organization, and Sammons (as good as any other backup catcher is going to be as the 25th man on the bench…especially making the ML minimum.). Nothing wrong with that bench, especially if Brandon Jones is the 4th OF.
By Earl
October 8, 2008 1:32 PM | Link to this
As long as we’re looking at the roster for next year, who of our prospects will need to be added to the 40 man? I forget the rule, but I thought it was 5 years in the minors for someone signed at age 18 or lower, and 4 years in the minors if signed at age 19 or higher. In that case, I believe the guys who would have to be added or lost would be Diory Hernandez, Todd Redmond, Stephen Marek, Luis Valdez, Jon Owings, Eric Campbell, J.C. Holt, Van Pope, and Kala Kaaihue. We wouldn’t protect all those guys but I would protect Hernandez, Redmond, Marek, Valdez, and Kaaihue, and maybe Campbell if he can get his act together.
Peavy is a great idea, but I would not trade Heyward or Hanson. I’d be open about trading Johnson or Prado, as well as throwing in Morton, Schafer, and Brandon Jones, but I bet that wouldn’t get it done given what the Dbacks gave up for Dan Haren.
As for the outfielder, the only free agent I’d be interested in is Bobby Abreu, and I doubt the Braves would get him. Magglio is probably the best choice of the guys we could get in trade.
Thoughts?
By Shaun
October 8, 2008 1:56 PM | Link to this
DOB, I agree. Seems like a lot of folks here throw out names just because they play for Pittsburgh or Kansas City and ignore the talent, age and contracts of these names. Also, these organizations are run a lot better now than they used to be, especially Pittsburgh.
By TommyP
October 8, 2008 1:57 PM | Link to this
Shaun: Was not implying we go for McLouth for this year….said I was calling for that last year.
McLouth was never a major piece for Pittsburgh before this year as evidenced by the other prospects in that organization that they gave every chance to instead of him. (Duffy, Morgan…someone else that I’ve forgotten)
He put together a very strong stretch last year and then they benched him the month of September.
That guy was passed over time and time again. He was always considered a 4th/5th OF for them….that’s why I suggested he could come cheap.
Put it another way…I’m not at all convinced that Pittsburgh wouldn’t have taken Joey Devine for McLouth last offseason.
Even their beat writers were talking about him as nothing more than insurance.
By David O'Brien
October 8, 2008 2:01 PM | Link to this
Bard got released?…
Speaking of The Bard (great transition; it’s why I get the big bucks)….
Bob Dylan’s latest, the Bootleg Series Vol. 8. is Great. Not good, great. Anyone who’s a fan and hasn’t heard it yet, you’re in for a two-disc treat. Mr. Zimmerman’s alternate takes and other unreleased songs are better than 99 percent of the stuff put out by most others. Amazing, the quality of this stuff.
Also, the new Pretenders CD is very strong. More like a Chrissie solo album, really. Band’s all new except her, I think. Much more rootsy American sound to this CD, “Break Up the Concrete,” than their most recent stuff.
Oh, and for those into the unique sounds of the band TV On The Radio, I think their new album, “Dear Science,” is as good or better than the first two.
By David O'Brien
October 8, 2008 2:04 PM | Link to this
I was adding something to this post earlier and it got dropped from the chain when I tried to do so.
Anyway, here it is again:
I find it hard to believe the PIrates would trade McLouth this soon. If they do, it’s a reminder of how freakin’ clueless they are and the perpetual, hopeless rebuilding mode they’re in.
Dude was really good this year, offensively and defensively. And he’s still cheap. Why in the world would they give him up? They want to build their minor league system, yet every time a player has a couple of good seasons, they trade him? Makes no sense.
He’s precisely the kind of player a small-market team like that needs to build around.
CF isn’t a Braves priority, as Shaun alluded to. They don’t need a guy for more than one season there, if that. They’ve got too many other needs to give up a bunch of prospects to get a CF, in my opinion, when two of the Braves’ top prospects are CFs.
McLouth is very good, though. If he’s available, teams will line up.
By Jeff R
October 8, 2008 2:08 PM | Link to this
Pirates brass is very high on McLouth. I doubt that they entertain offers - unless they were lopsidedly favorable.
Snell did drop off this year. He’d be worth acquiring, though, if the asking price isn’t outrageous.
By Shaun
October 8, 2008 2:10 PM | Link to this
TommyP, McLouth had just turned 26 when you say you were calling on the Braves to try to trade for him. He likely wasn’t given a shot until this season because he was still very young. I can’t speak for the Pirates’ front office, but I imagine they knew that McLouth had a good shot to become a good player given what he did in the minors and in 2007, especially once the new front office took hold. I suspect that there is no way the new front office would have trade McLouth for a relief pitcher a year ago.
By McFann Ô
October 8, 2008 2:11 PM | Link to this
ncscoots Sammons (as good as any other backup catcher is going to be)
Let’s hope! ‘Cause we need it.
By David O'Brien
October 8, 2008 2:17 PM | Link to this
TommyP, McLouth had a breakout season. Times change. His stock soared this year.
This is from an MLB.com story this week about him winning the Pirates’ Roberto Clemente Award:
McLouth led the team in just about every offensive category this year, one in which he first battled for a starting spot and then parlayed that into an All-Star Game invite. The starting center fielder hit .276 with a team-leading 26 homers and 94 RBIs.
His 113 runs scored marked the fifth-best total in the National League, while McLouth finished tied atop the league with 46 doubles. He swiped 23 bases and was successful in each of his last 21 attempts.
McLouth, who follows second baseman Freddy Sanchez as the recipient of the local Clemente Award, also finished the season with the league’s best fielding percentage after committing just one error in 150 starts.
By Art
October 8, 2008 2:19 PM | Link to this
Yes get Peavy - send Reyes, B Jones and a minor leaguer
By Hooisier Aaron
October 8, 2008 2:22 PM | Link to this
DAP
A miniature Buddha covered in hair..would that be Cousin IT?
Yeah, like I’ve said - everybody has an opinion…that’s why blogs work - isn’t it?
Certainly, I’d love to get a top of the rotation guy - but not at the expense of 5 prospects, a 1 year “rental” or 18% of our payroll.
Give me JJ and 4 other guys that give us a chance to win everyday. There were 40+ guys that won 12 - 17 games last year.
What I do not like is pretty much knowing that our 4 & 5 guys aren’t going to get us through 5 innings. I’ll sacrifice 4 - 5 wins at #1 if I can get 12 wins at 4 & 5.
I think we can find 3 guys that can win in that range and fill our offensive needs too. It would be even better if some of those guys were currently in our system.
I want to see us compete every year. While I was a fan in the ’70s & 80s and enjoyed it - I much prefer competing every year. That kind of grows on you.
By Macdaddy
October 8, 2008 2:25 PM | Link to this
All this talk about an outfielder, if anything makes sence it’s a deal with the Cardinals. Maybe Acosta or Soriano or somebody for Ludwick or Rasmus.
By Jeff R
October 8, 2008 2:26 PM | Link to this
Doubt the Pirates would part with Neil Walker (top 3B prospect at Triple A), but it might be interesting for Wren to make an inquiry. Top ‘08 draftee Pedro Alvarez is going to be the Pirates 3B in a season or two. Walker is slated to move over to first to make room for Alvarez. Might be interesting to see if the Pirates are willing to part with Walker and what it would take to get him.
By Shaun
October 8, 2008 2:27 PM | Link to this
I found this very good article on McLouth.
Seems Jim Tracy was set on relegating McLouth to a fourth-outfielder role. Neal Huntington took over in September 2007. Huntington immediately knew what he had in McLouth. No way the Pirates viewed him as a fourth outfielder as soon as Huntington took over. So during the ‘07-‘08 offseason, the Pirates probably wouldn’t have traded McLouth for anything less than a top prospect. I’m almost certain they wouldn’t have traded him for a relief pitcher, especially one who struggled in his limited chances in the majors.
By DAP
October 8, 2008 2:44 PM | Link to this
kenny williams GM of the white sox is looking for speed to add to the top and bottom of his order.
they need a middle infielder, and an outfielder.
williams also seems to want nick swisher back. but, could we get swisher for anderson and lillibridge?
high OBP and good power in a guy who can paly all three outfield spots and first base. swisher would be great if we could get him.
By flange1
October 8, 2008 3:03 PM | Link to this
Shaun,
Great post on the Pirates. I think the new management will do a better job that their predecessors.
But I also think that in looking at their club, they realize that they are in need of a major overhaul and will make more and better trades over the winter.
By trading Bay, Torres and Nady, they helped restock their minor leagues with decent talent.
They took the quantity as opposed to quality route.
I see them moving Adam LaRoach, Jack Wilson, at least one of their current starting pitchers and possibly Sanchez by opening day.
I think management understands the team is FAR away from competing and is willing to make trades that improve the team in long run.
So, I do think Snell is available.
Mclouth might be available too (I see the Yankees are frothing at the mouth over him), but the team will have to overpay to get him.
I don’t see Mclouth coming the ATL.
I don’t see any CF coming to the Braves next year except Schafer, Blanco and Anderson and either Blanco or Anderson (maybe both) get traded.
By Jeff R
October 8, 2008 3:30 PM | Link to this
Pirates brass have proven to be shrewd traders. In the deals for Bay, Torres and Nady, I think that the Pirates acquired good prospects - not top flight, but good.
Snell is worth pursuing, but not at too high a price. If the Pirates are willing to take a Lillibridge, for example, for Snell, might be worth mulling.
By TommyP
October 8, 2008 3:35 PM | Link to this
Shaun/DOB (and a couple of others): Guys….are y’all reading what I wrote? I’m literally stunned so many commented how the Pirates aren’t trading McLouth. I NEVER SAID THEY WOULD TRADE HIM NOW….LAST YEAR.
*Get younger, cheaper (in terms of prospects and salary) but still with the upside. By doing this, we’ll also have money to address the (gasp!) BENCH.
I suggested this last September-November for our CF problem. I suggested McLouth as the #1 target for us.*
Again, see that I stated we should trade for him last season, not now.
I don’t know how far back the archives go but I’ll look for it if it’s there. (as far as last year)
As far as McLouth being in their plans, as late as January of this past year I read a story where the Pirates were not counting on any one player to be their CF. They would all have to compete.
If you want to believe that the Pirates knew all along that McLouth was their guy, go ahead and believe it.
But that wasn’t what was written all offseason.
Again, it wouldn’t have taken much LAST OFFSEASON to pry McLouth away. And judging from all of the comments I received after making the suggestion, hardly anyone on here wanted him (or knew of him).
By TommyP
October 8, 2008 3:48 PM | Link to this
Found one of my later rants about acquiring McLouth from last November. I started with his stats in late September but this was what I found:
*We could always use Dejesus at another position if Schafer comes on board???? Where? His stats are barely suitable for CF. No way they’d play Dejesus at a corner outfield position.
IF Schafer is truly that close to the majors, then there is no reason to trade for guys making $4+ million with several years left on their contracts.
The Braves are weighing their options with three things in mind:
Cost ($) + Cost (prospects) + Production.
The cost in $ is also accompanied by length of contract.
The cost of prospects has to be kept to a minimum if Schafer is indeed that close to the majors.
I rule out Crisp and Dejesus immediately. Dejesus just doesn’t have much upside at all and, while affordable, he has several years on that contract and I’m not sure they could deal him for much later.
If the Braves don’t have to have the gazelle out their patrolling center, Cody Ross or Ryan Spillborghs would be intriguing pickups. Both can hit and both have played center. However, I’m not sure they want to have THAT much of a dropoff in fielding from Andruw to them.
If they were to acquire one of them, it would be essential that they net a deal for an 8th inning defensive replacement in the Nook Logan mold, perhaps. Just on the team to field in the 8th and 9th.
Here’s the most logical choice for the Braves: Nate McLouth
For some reason, this guy is not valued in Pittsburgh as they are intent on seeing Duffy fail and his clone, Nyjer Morgan.
McLouth finally got some starting time last year when Duffy got injured. He started all of August and some of September before Morgan was given most of the playing time.
McLouth’s numbers last year overall: .258 BA, .351 OBP., 13 homers, .459 SLG, and an .810 OPS.
Not to mention he had 22 steals, 1 caught stealing. In fact, he’s 34 for 36 stealing bases in his short career!
Let’s talk about his numbers when he started.
August numbers: .270 BA, .356 OBP, 10 steals, .522 SLG, .878 OPS. Oh yeah…7 dingers, 17 ribbies.
He started for PART of September and here are his September stats:
.315 BA, .457 OBP, .574 SLG, 1.031 OPS. (3 dingers, 10 ribbies, 6 steals in only 54 at bats)
If you want to talk about fielding, he’s rock solid there.
Andruw had a 2.67 RF (range factor), McLouth had a 2.62. Not much difference there.
Andruw had an .863 ZR (zone rating), McLouth had an .886.
By no means am I saying he’s a better fielder but you can see that he’s definitely major league solid out there in center.
Cost ($): He’s making close to the minimum this past year and next.
Cost (prospects): With Pittsburgh loving Duff and Morgan, it wouldn’t take too much to pry him from Pitt.
He’s cheap in salary, shouldn’t cost much in terms of a prospect, and produces along with having potential to get better.
In addition, maybe the Braves can net a Jose Castillo in a deal as a backup SS. Castillo was solid last year as a backup but not sure about his salary. (of course, wait for Pittsburgh to not pick up Cesar Izturis’ option and then sign him on the cheap for a SS backup)
Nate McLouth is the best option out there for the Braves, all things considered.*
By flange1
October 8, 2008 3:51 PM | Link to this
TommyP,
I think are spot on with regards to Mclouth. Before last year, he was a 4th outfielder. We could have traded for him but didn’t. If my memory is correct, the Bucs were trying to include him as the second piece in the Gonzo trade, but the Braves wanted Chris Duffey.
By rlpmetro
October 8, 2008 3:53 PM | Link to this
DOB,
How much of Peavy’s stats do you attribute to playing predominantly in a pitcher-friendly ballpark out in SD? What impact do you think coming to Atlanta (albeit another park that tends to be pitcher-friendly) would have on his numbers?
I saw your response to a comment about the Wild Card teams winning and how to make it harder on the WC teams. I heard Seth Everrit from MLB.com on the radio today, and he suggested that they add a wild card team to make 2 Wild Cards. Those teams would then face each other in a one-game playoff to see who moves on. The benefit of this is it would have forced a team like Boston this season to pitch Lester in the one-game playoff. As a result, Lester wouldn’t have been available for Game 1 of the ALDS, and it would have given the Angels more of an advantage. I think the proposal has some merit because you would still see teams like Boston and Minnesota fighting to the bitter end of the season to try to avoid that scenario by winning their division.
By Shaun
October 8, 2008 4:03 PM | Link to this
TommyP, I’m going by what the reporter wrote in that piece I posted. I assume he has reliable sources. In the article, it clearly implies that Jim Tracy’s regime relegated McLouth to the backup role but Huntington realized how good McLouth was (he took over in September of 2007). So, again, no way the Pirates would have traded McLouth for anything less than a top prospect or two last year at around this time or during the ‘07-‘08 offseason.
The previous regime was in love with guys like Duffy and Morgan, but that all changed in September 2007.
Doesn’t matter what some writers in Pittsburgh thought of McLouth. All that matters is what the GM and front office thought during the 2007-08 offseason.
flange1, I do think the Pirates realize they have some work to do but I like what I’m seeing from their new front office. I don’t think McLouth is one of the players they’ll actively shop; not unless they can get two or three young players with about as much upside, which isn’t likely to happen.
By TommyP
October 8, 2008 4:04 PM | Link to this
So there! Nyyyahhh!
By Mr J
October 8, 2008 4:04 PM | Link to this
DOB,
In case you’re interested and didn’t see it: Patterson Hood plays solo Thurday night in Athens at The Melting Point.
By kirknga
October 8, 2008 4:13 PM | Link to this
Great discussion regarding Peavy.
It’s fun to speculate about which Braves’ players could potentially be involved but one important variable we don’t know right now is what other teams will offer.
The trade market works just like the free agent market. Demand and need is going to set the price. It’s going to be our prospects against whatever teams also are interested.
So I wonder what would the Mets or Phillies give up for Peavy? How about the BoSox or Yankees or Dodgers? We can’t assume that Peavy wouldn’t have an interest in going to Tampa or Houston which are close to his home as well.
The Braves will be up against some very stiff competition for Peavy or any other top starter.
By TommyP
October 8, 2008 4:16 PM | Link to this
Work is done…now for my partial Peavy reply that didn’t work it’s way on here at 6AM.
I posted a few days ago why Peavy isn’t my choice to come to the Braves.
His violent mechanics + big time price of prospects + salary = big time risk.
We gave a king’s ransom in the Tex deal so why do that again?
If I’m talking to San Diego, I’m talking to them about Chris Young.
I’m not sure that he’s one they want to trade but if they’re looking to retool completely, he could be there.
Salary: 2009 ($4.5 million), 2010 ($6.25 million), 2011 ($8.5 million club option)
As a rookie in Texas, he pitched 164.2 IP with a 4.26 ERA and 1.26 WHIP.
2006 in San Diego: 179.1, 3.46 ERA, 1.13 WHIP. 2007 in San Diego: 173, 3.12 ERA, 1.10 WHIP. 2008 in San Diego: 102.1, 3.96 ERA, 1.29 WHIP.
He’s close to striking out a batter per inning.
This year he missed a lot of time due to getting hit in the face. He then returned and went on the DL due to a forearm strain. (probably ‘cause he missed so much time without pitching)
He returned on September 1 for a bit of a rough start.
But his last 4 starts of the year showed 29 IP, 16 hits, 5 ER, and a WHIP of 0.72.
For his salary now and in the future, the cost of prospects, and the fact he appears to be a guy about to really breakout, Chris Young is the guy I’m going after and hard.
By flange1
October 8, 2008 4:17 PM | Link to this
Shaun,
I think you are correct on McLouth, he will not get traded by this regime unless the Pirates are overwhelmed.
From what I am reading, the Yankees just might overwhelm them…..
By Shaun
October 8, 2008 4:19 PM | Link to this
flange1, maybe in January 2007, when they made the Gonzalez trade, they could have gotten McLouth. But again, in the 2007-08 offseason, the Pirates brought in a new regime who realize McLouth was worth a serious look.
rlpmetro, Peavy’s career home ERA is 2.77. At Petco it’s 2.66. His career road ERA is 3.80.
Since 2003 (Peavy’s first season of 30 or more starts) the Padres have allowed 4.08 runs per game at home and 4.9 runs per game on the road.
Peavy’s a good pitcher no matter where he pitches—I think he would do fine at Turner Field—but Petco clearly makes him look even more dominant.
He’s only started two games at Turner Field, so not really enough of a sample to draw any conclusions.
By TommyP
October 8, 2008 4:20 PM | Link to this
The 4:04 post was not mine. Can we just ban people that post under others’ handles?
By David O'Brien
October 8, 2008 4:23 PM | Link to this
Mr J, definitely should go see that, if you didn’t already plan to. I just saw him over here in Atlanta and have seen a ton of shows in recent weeks, including the epic McMurtry/Isbell show in Athens. So I doubt I’ll be making another trip over there Thursday. But thanks for heads-up….
BravesfansinMetsland: Now I’m stoked to watch The Shield tonight. Haven’t seen the new one yet, was catching up on Mad Men, Entourage and couple other shows. Shield was great last week, getting really tense and stronger by the week.
By TommyP
October 8, 2008 4:26 PM | Link to this
Shaun: I realize that is what is being implied in that article. (wasn’t it written after his torrid start this year?)
But if the new Pittsburgh brass was THAT high on McLouth, why didn’t they name him the starter in CF from the outset? They didn’t….they said CF was up for grabs.
Now they may have liked him more than Tracy and Co. but to say he would’ve cost a top prospect or two? I’m just not buying it.
With that said, I’ll attempt to find some offseason quotes concerning him.
(Good conversation at any rate, huh?)
By DAP
October 8, 2008 4:33 PM | Link to this
has anybody heard weather the brewers will pick up cameron’s option?
By McFann Ô
October 8, 2008 4:37 PM | Link to this
AJC, published on 10/08/08 The jersey the Braves pitcher wore when he recorded his 3,000th career strikeout this season was one of several items the Baseball Hall of Fame put on display from the 2008 season. The jersey is part of the exhibit entitled “Today’s Game.”
Other included items from this season: the spikes used by Derek Jeter when he set the record for most hits at Yankee Stadium; the spikes used by Jose Molina when he hit the last home run at Yankee Stadium: and the batting helmet Manny Ramirez wore for his 500th career home run.
They shoulda got the bat McCann used to hit his First Career Triple.
; ) JK!
By DAP
October 8, 2008 4:37 PM | Link to this
(Good conversation at any rate, huh?)
not really. i think we agree the braves arent getting him for 2009. for its just “i was right!” “nu-uh!” “yuh-huh!”
By TommyP
October 8, 2008 4:38 PM | Link to this
Was too!! Nyyyahh!
By TommyP
October 8, 2008 4:45 PM | Link to this
Shaun: This from a Q and A session with John Russell on February 14th of this year:
Q: Aside from the leadoff spot, which you have said will go to McLouth or Morgan, how might the Nos. 2-5 spots in your lineup look?
A: Honestly, I’ve kicked that around and have five different lineups, depending on which day you ask me.
The center fielder will be first, then Jack or Freddy. Then, Bay will be in there, I suspect. And LaRoche. And Xavier Nady or Jose Bautista after that.
http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/08045/857352-63.stm
Not saying the new GM/manager didn’t really like him but he was definitely attainable for less than 1 top prospect or two. That would be the price NOW.
By flange1
October 8, 2008 4:48 PM | Link to this
Just re-read Bowman’s comments on atlantabraves.com.
Found it interesting that he mentions twice that the Braves prefer to fill the outfield “power bat” via trade over FA.
I am glad to hear that because I am not thrilled with the outfield FA market.
But if we are filling the OF bat via trade, do we have enough minor league talent to get a bat and a pitcher ESPECIALLY someone like Peavy?
I wonder if the M Ordonez rumors might have some legs. If the Braves can take on his entire salary and give up LESS prospects.
Then re-sign Hampton and sign Penny.
Then make your trade for a pitcher…
By Shaun
October 8, 2008 4:49 PM | Link to this
TommyP, well, could have been the Pirates didn’t want McLouth to coast, they wanted to push him a bit. He was still a young player. But, again, the front office seemed to realize that he was as good as anyone they had, if you believe that article. Just because a team says centerfield is up for grabs or because some of the media speculate that a guy is on the trade block doesn’t mean the team doesn’t have a favorite or that the guy is actually on the trading block. I think you may be looking into what the team and media was saying at the time instead of the apparent thought process of the front office, which was that McLouth was darn good and the job was his to lose. It happens all the time, teams don’t want to publicly announce that a position is a young player’s to lose.
By nolie
October 8, 2008 4:50 PM | Link to this
How much of Peavy’s stats do you attribute to playing predominantly in a pitcher-friendly ballpark out in SD? What impact do you think coming to Atlanta (albeit another park that tends to be pitcher-friendly) would have on his numbers?ripmetro
Peavy has a career ERA about one run higher away from home. 2.77 to 3.8 or something very close to that, though his CYA year he was dynamite everywhere.so he would likely show some detriment from moving away from SD The Ted is fairly neutral most years and he is still a good pitcher. I still think he might well cost more than the Braves are willing to pay if they want to keep their top 5 prospects.
By TommyP
October 8, 2008 4:59 PM | Link to this
Shaun: Could be true but we’ll just say we can agree to disagree. :)
On another note, the Marlins should be dealing a few of those arbitration eligible pieces of theirs.
Piece together a Nolasco or Josh Johnson/Cody Ross deal?
I’d steer clear of Olsen. Too much baggage with him.
By Nate
October 8, 2008 5:18 PM | Link to this
McLouth is an all-star outfielder, and he hasn’t yet reached his prime. Plus he’s cheap still. He’s in just the kind of talented, young, cheap players EVERYONE in baseball is looking for. The Pirates would be stupid to trade him now. And if they do you can bet it will take more than one PROSPECT.
Funny thing about prospects, is that they’re prospects. We’re all hoping that Schafer turns into a guy like McLouth. Maybe he will, maybe he won’t. Why would the Pirates trade a sure thing (McLouth) for a maybe (Schafer).
Then again, they are the Pirates.
By Jeff R
October 8, 2008 5:24 PM | Link to this
Kirknga has it right: It’s fun to speculate about which Braves’ players could potentially be involved [in a Peavy deal] but one important variable we don’t know right now is what other teams will offer.
Peavy won’t just fall into the Braves’ lap, however nice that would be. Hopefully, Wren has the right combo to get Peavy.
By beekay
October 8, 2008 5:44 PM | Link to this
Sign Griffey to an incentive ladden contract and platoon either Jones or Diaz. Griff will be cheap, add power and should hold up for 100 games with Jones or Diaz filling in the rest….focus the money on Arms, Arms and more arms
By Bobby
October 8, 2008 5:54 PM | Link to this
Can the season get any worse with the death of Bruce Dal Canton last night
By TommyP
October 8, 2008 6:28 PM | Link to this
Nate: The discussion was pertaining to McLouth pre-2008 season….not now.
By PleaseBrewCrewPlease
October 8, 2008 6:36 PM | Link to this
has anybody heard weather the brewers will pick up cameron’s option?DAP
God, I hope so. I DO NOT want a .240 hitting 150 K OFer no matter what his OBP or OPS
By Braveheart
October 8, 2008 6:55 PM | Link to this
God, I hope so. I DO NOT want a .240 hitting 150 K OFer no matter what his OBP or OPS
oh, yeah, digging the logic on that one. a + defender at a critical slot, hit as many homers last year as our entire outfield combined, has good on base, slugging and running ability. yeah, who wants a guy like Mike Cameron?
By Steve from OH
October 8, 2008 7:13 PM | Link to this
God, I hope so. I DO NOT want a .240 hitting 150 K OFer no matter what his OBP or OPS
But I assume that you’ll be ok with Gregor Blanco, a man with a .251 average and about as much chance of hitting a home run as I do? Or Josh Anderson, a man who managed to OBP a hefty six points more than Mike Cameron’s very average-esque .331 OBP?
Gregor Blanco struck out 100 times in 430 AB this year.
I agree w/ Braveheart….send out the logic police.
DISCLAIMER: I, Steve from OH, in no way support the acquisition of Mike Cameron. The end.
By Bobby
October 8, 2008 7:20 PM | Link to this
Blanco hit one home run as a fourth outfielder forced into a starting role should never be used as an example to dignify the outfield. I guess we should thank our stars we did not sign Juan Pierre. Say no to Cameron. Go with Anderson or Schafer in ‘09. Home runs are very over rated.
By Bobby.
October 8, 2008 7:30 PM | Link to this
Bret Butler carved out a nice career as a smaller version of Josh Anderson. Let’s give Anderson a shot if Schafer is not ready yet.
By Steve from OH
October 8, 2008 7:37 PM | Link to this
Bobby, here is a list of players that have hit more homeruns than Gregor Blanco:
Carlos Zambrano (a pitcher, “forced” into a hitting role every 5th day)
Brandon Backe
Matt Cain
Jason Marquis
CC Sabathia
Jeff Francoeur
Cha-Seun Baek (a relief pitcher) and Corky Miller (a clown posing as a BUC) both have one home run. Being a “converted 4th outfielder” is no excuse whatsoever.
Home runs are NOT overrated.
I feel like Promethius having to read stuff like this every day.
P.S. I agree on Cameron, Pierre and Schafer.
By bravesfaninmetsland
October 8, 2008 7:46 PM | Link to this
DOB:
Didn’t think you’d be a day behind on the shows. let me know what you think about the Shield. Sorry to pipe in too soon.
By flange1
October 8, 2008 7:49 PM | Link to this
Steve from Ohio,
Isn’t “Promethius” the guy from the Dominican that is only 15 but can hit 100 in the 9th iniing with a plus curve and slider?
Isn’t his first name Yorvit?
:)
By Bobby
October 8, 2008 7:51 PM | Link to this
You are entitled to your opinion Steve, regardless how off base it is. Baseball teams have historically thrived with a high on base, low home run hitting CF’er. Anderson is a CF’er, Blanco is not a CF’er, he was a 25th guy playing out of position and forced to start to boot..
Anderson should be good for 10 dingers and if there is a level playing field in ST Schafer will win the CF job no contest and Anderson can take his rightful spot as the 25th guy and 4th outfielder….unless he is traded of course. Speed is where it is at Baby….to compliment the bangers.
By Cheyenne
October 8, 2008 7:53 PM | Link to this
.240/150K is barely OK with a .375 OBP and 40 homers. with a .340 OBP and 25 homers, it sucks. Let the Brewers keep him I didn’t want him last year, nor do I want him this winter either. We have Schafer getting close, let’s not waste any money on Cammy the whiffer.
By Bobby
October 8, 2008 7:59 PM | Link to this
I feel I must have given Steve the impression I was a Blanco supporter. Quite the opposite. Blanco has no business on a major league baseball roster. He has an arm with no zip, takes horrible routes to the ball and his instincts are embarrassing.
By Cheyenne
October 8, 2008 8:07 PM | Link to this
Baseball teams have historically thrived with a high on base, low home run hitting CF’er.Bobby
the problem being of course that Anderson is not a high OBP hitter, if he were, what you said would make a lot more sense. as it is…well….
By Bobby
October 8, 2008 8:18 PM | Link to this
Well, Steve a few at bats in Sept is not enough time for even God to determine whether he is an OBP type guy. My opinion is he is a good speed guy who would bebefit the team next year as the 4th OF’er. Please show me where I said Anderson was a high OBP type player.
By Bobby
October 8, 2008 8:23 PM | Link to this
This place has a bunch of ventriloquists, the mouths never move and I get credit for what they say. I never said Anderson was a high OBP guy.
By BravesFanInRockies
October 8, 2008 8:28 PM | Link to this
Bobby,
Anderson has spent parts of six seasons in the minors and has shown he is NOT a good OBP guy. Even comparing his numbers in the minors to Butler’s in the majors, Butler was by far the superior leadoff man. Better OBP (.377 to .344) and about the same power.
He might be a fine fourth OF unless you want some pop off the bench, which IMO the Braves could use. Then you want someone else as a reserve.
By Bobby
October 8, 2008 8:28 PM | Link to this
The high OBP guy I was referring to were the Bret Butler types that historically have a nice place in baseball history. It is too soon to know if Anderson is in that category. Anderson is two years younger than Butler was when Butler had his first full season. Anderson has yet to make a major league roster out of ST.
By Bobby
October 8, 2008 8:42 PM | Link to this
I was enjoying the winning that coincided with the extended play of Anderson in Sept.
Anderson plays good defense, has base stealing speed, is still a work in progress, is big enough in the frame to gain power if he chooses, would be a better option as 4th OF’er than Blanco,
it is nice to have a steal guy coming off the bench late in the game, Norton was a nice power guy coming off the bench. I f they sign a Norton type I hope they keep Anderson as the 4th OF’er and the speed guy.
By Steve from OH
October 8, 2008 8:51 PM | Link to this
Bobby, I did get the impression that you were a Blanco guy (I think that I might have given you that very same impression; I am not a Blanco supporter), so apologies for that.
I also never said that you said Anderson was a high OBP guy (he’s average-ish, based on large minor league sampling). Look, I agree with you that Schafer should be starting and Anderson should be a 4th OF.
But seriously, dude, how can you say that home runs are overrated? That’s the main thing I’m taking issue with. Defend your position, I say, lol!
Flange1, thanks for the heads-up on the misspelling. That should read “Prometheus.” Judging by your moniker, I gather that you are a guitar player? Been meaning to ask you for some time now.
By McFann Ô
October 8, 2008 8:53 PM | Link to this
Bobby Home runs are very over rated.
Haha! Not really. I would’ve LOVED to see a homer in the ninth inning of the Braves’ last game! That’s what we needed…
Course, that doesn’t really prove they’re not overrated, but hey, Mac could’ve done it. I’d love to know what would’ve happened if he’d have let that pitch go by…mighta been called a ball, and then he would’ve had another chance.
Oh, and I don’t think that homer hit 1,097 days ago was very overrated…
By MiamiBeachBravesFan
October 8, 2008 9:11 PM | Link to this
The Mark Teixeira trade in ‘07 was a bloodletting for the Braves’ organization, stripping them of a LOT of minor league trade fodder for one guy that lasted only one season. A VERY expensive gamble indeed - with VERY little in return (no disrespect to Casey Kotchman). I, for one, was never a fan of the trade for one reason - Scott Boras.
The Padres are not stupid, and they will not let Peavy go for a minor league pitcher and position player. Even if Peavy gives them a “Southeast or Nothing” ultimatum, the Pod’s won’t bite. Their price tag will be expensive - at least three type “A” prospects and a “B”.
I’d rather sign one free agent pitcher (Lowe or Dempster) and make do with re-signing Mike Hampton, and either/or Smoltz and Glavine.
Somewhere down the road, we have to come up with the next wave of young pitchers, like Glavine and Smoltz. Jair Jurrjens and Jorge Campillo can pick up the back end at three, four, or five. It is up to Bobby Cox and Roger McDowell to show bigger patience than the players and to DEVELOP the Charlie Morton’s, Jo-Jo Reyes’, Buddy Carlyle’s, Jeff Bennett’s, Chuck James’, Anthony Lerew’s, and James Parr’s of the organization. Out of those seven names I just mentioned, ONE should be able to do the job as a fifth starter.
A starting LF’er can also be had via free agency, someone who can hit .275-.285 and hit 24-28 dingers and drive in 85-95.
I do not need to mention that if we keep trading away our minor leaguers for the annual quick fix, we are no better than the Yankees and Mets, who have a barren minor league system.
The big difference is that we do not have New York bucks to play Russian roulette with our better minor league prospects.
By Steve from OH
October 8, 2008 10:04 PM | Link to this
Freddie Freeman leaves instructional league with cracked rib; not considered serious.
By David O'Brien
October 8, 2008 10:20 PM | Link to this
We saw an outstanding murder mystery/suspense movie tonight that will have you thinking hard until the end, and you can’t possibly figure it out until they explain in the final 15 minutes. It’s called “Tell No One,” and it’s still on at small art-house type theaters. Really a great movie. Don’t let subtltles keep you away if it’s in your town.
Go see it. You’ll be glad you did.
By richbrave
October 8, 2008 10:27 PM | Link to this
Re: PEAVY. If we can’t buy him don’t get him. Until he’s an unqualified FA forget about it. Don’t sent one living soul from the BRAVES to SAN DIEGO for him. There’s other fish in the sea.
By richbrave
October 8, 2008 10:33 PM | Link to this
I guess they wanted KOTCHMAN to fill the 1B hole until FREEMAN arrives.
By WaitTilNextYear
October 8, 2008 10:54 PM | Link to this
Blanco would be the fourth outfielder option. Anderson is a starter if you go with someone on the current roster in CF. Blanco strikes out too much to be a leadoff man. He would be better off the bench.
By Bobby
October 8, 2008 10:54 PM | Link to this
If you want a guy to get 650 plate appearances and it gets you all warm and fuzzy that he hit 35 home runs then yeah they are over rated. I am more concerned with what the other 615 plate appearances did for the team, but hey, chics dig the long ball. I am all about the team, not what an individual player does.
By StingerSplash
October 8, 2008 11:05 PM | Link to this
flange1,
I honestly can’t recall if I’ve met Arnie or not, but I have met Jack Nicklaus and Gary Player and they are absolutely the real ———- deal. Great gentlemen in every sense of the word. If only today’s generation of golfers truly understood what those men were all about ….
By Braveheart
October 8, 2008 11:16 PM | Link to this
If you want a guy to get 650 plate appearances and it gets you all warm and fuzzy that he hit 35 home runs then yeah they are over rated. I am more concerned with what the other 615 plate appearances did for the team, but hey, chics dig the long ball. I am all about the team, not what an individual player does.
Are you aware that to equal the run value of those 35 homers, your little scrapper would instead have to steal 250 bases without being caught or would instead have to hit 50 triples or would have to hit 70 doubles or would have to hit an extra 100 singles or would have to draw 150 walks?
By N Nine
October 8, 2008 11:25 PM | Link to this
Part of Dodgers recent success is the super hot Lowe. Mr.Lowe has a cool 0.99 ERA in last 10 games(incl. playoffs). His price tag is rising quickly. Can you imagine we signing Lowe and somehow nabbing Peavy? We would be set on starting. Looks like OF options are their, its the rich arms that we need to strike after. Peavy-Braves ‘09
By Wayne
October 8, 2008 11:37 PM | Link to this
What, no blockbuster trades today?
And I was hoping for Matt Cain and Mags Ordonez!
Any news today, or just rehashing?
By Daybed Wagmoe
October 8, 2008 11:42 PM | Link to this
DOB — The most recent “Tell No One” I could find on imdb.com says it’s from 2006. The plot says, “The pediatrician Alexandre Beck misses his beloved wife Margot Beck, who was brutally murdered eight years ago when he was the prime suspect…” Same movie?
Sounds really good, I’d like to see it.
By nolie
October 9, 2008 12:06 AM | Link to this
Same movie?
Sounds really good, I’d like to see it. Daybed
I’m sure that it’s the same movie. French release a couple of years ago. Very good flick. I don’t think it’s available on DVD yet in the US. The French have been making some pretty decent films again the last 6-8 years or so
By David O'Brien
October 9, 2008 12:43 AM | Link to this
Daybed, that’s it. It’s only been out in this country for a few months. I just checked Rotten Tomatoes (the best place to go for multiple reviews on movies) and it says theatrical release in July 2008.
By Bo
October 9, 2008 1:13 AM | Link to this
DOB- Whats your opinion on the Blue Jays needing a SS and young pitchers and the Braves needing a OF like Rios (could play LF or CF).Making a deal?
By GermanBravesFan
October 9, 2008 4:19 AM | Link to this
Here’s an idea… why not use the $45 million the Braves have available and buy the entire roster of the Florida Marlins? There may even be some $$$ left…
By ncscoots
October 9, 2008 6:31 AM | Link to this
Alex Rios has long been a favorite of this forum, but it appears to me that the Jays need more offense, not less. I would think they will try to upgrade at SS through FA first, then go the trade route, if necessary. In any event, it’s hard to envision a scenario in which trading Rios is a part of their plans.
DISCLAIMER: I, Steve from OH, in no way support the acquisition of Mike Cameron. The end.
Naturally, Steve-OH means that in a park-adjusted kinda way, LOL.
By N Nine
October 9, 2008 7:34 AM | Link to this
Mike Cameron in no way is a power hitter we need. He’s a good overall player. I hope we get a TEX like power player for the OF.
By Thrillhouse44
October 9, 2008 8:34 AM | Link to this
I hope we get a TEX like power player for the OF. N Nine
I hope we get a power hitter that also hits in May and June.
By DAP
October 9, 2008 9:17 AM | Link to this
to those against getting mike cameron…i want mike cameron if we can get him. he is a very good dfensive player, has good power, good on base, bad avg. steals bases, ect. he might not be the 40 homer type that we need, but there arent alot of those out there. basically there is manny, dunn, and burrell. manny is a definet no. id be ok with dunn but he will cost ya, and burrell is also a no. so, weve got to solve the offense in a different way, probably.
i want to get either mike cameron or nick swisher to play center field next year. both are similar players with the bat. cameron can play all three outfielder positions very well, swisher can play all three, and first base if we need him to. they are valuable because on top of their solid offense, they play defense, unlike the three big bats i mentioned.
as well as one of those guys, i want to get casey blake to play LF. he can spell chipper at third, and fill in when needed.
the fourth outfielder should be blanco or anderson, so they can play center if we need them. shafer can spend a year at AAA. i think this works best because we dont know what jeff is gonna do, so we need to get two outfielders just in case. when shafer or whoever else is ready in the outifeld, 2010 or whatever, we can trade blake, or cameron, or swisher.
so instead of adding one hitter with 40 homers and bad defense, we add 50 homers between two players with good defense. i think it makes our lineup deeper and more dengerous.
By Shaun
October 9, 2008 9:26 AM | Link to this
Cameron is not a bad option as a veteran stopgap if the Braves feel one of their youngsters isn’t quite ready to handle the load full time. Depends on what he would cost, though.
By N8
October 9, 2008 9:33 AM | Link to this
mbatl
Sorry to take so long to respond, but I have to respond to the following comment you made the other night.
“N8, you really agree with grouping, say, Chad Johnson, who likes to talk a little trash after football games, with OJ Simpson? You want to put them both on the same boat “back to Africa?”……Man, I’m seriously disappointed in you.”
First of all, let me start by saying I’m flattered, that my opine is “important” enough to you, to actually be disappointed by something I might imply thinking.
Second, while I appreciate your concern, you might wanna save your disappointment, for a moment that is worth being disappointed over.
I was merely stating that I don’t like the “thug” mentality that many athletes (along with actors and other entertainers), bring to the table. THAT being said, it’s not a black/white thing with me.
Roger Clemens is just as big of an A-hole as Pacman Jones. Which is merely all I was agreeing with BravesFan79 about…..that those guys were A-holes.
At NO TIME did I even remotely mention or suggest that anybody be placed on a boat “Back to Africa”. So I’ll turn the table on you, and state that I’m disappointed in YOU for making such an assumption based on my post.
Was the same post where I scolded him for dropping the “N-Bomb”, the one where you assumed I wanted those guys to go “Back to Africa”??? Because I’ve read, and RE-read my post about 3 or 4 times, and can’t possibly fathom where you came up with that assumption.
I was simply answering his question, when he asked why those guys get a free pass, and a good guy like Francoeur gets trashed on this blog.
To which I stated, that while I despise those guys (and anybody that acts like that in ALL of sports), NONE OF THEM had any bearing on the Braves losing games last year. Jeff Francoeur did. Which is why so many BRAVES FANS get “on him” and rag on him.
Please refrain in the future from lumping me in with ANYBODY who might suggest that anybody of any race or color gets shipped “back” to anywhere. Much less stating your disappointment in me doing so, when I did nothing of the sort.
Before you think I’m ripping you a new A-hole, don’t bother. We’re “good”. I just wanted to clear it up.
I have no problem being recognized on the blog as a blow-hard, annoying guy that complains about everything in a long-winded manner.
What I don’t want, is the word racist to be anywhere in that description.
Capiche?
By David O'Brien
October 9, 2008 9:48 AM | Link to this
Bo, a deal like that makes sense for the reasons you cited. I don’t mean to be vague, but I’m not going to get specific so early in the offseason and start eliminating options or acting as though I know exactly how Braves are going to fill their needs, when the BRAVES don’t even know exactly. They couldn’t. Too early in the process. Could a trade come up this week? Yes, but it also might not happen until after GM meetings, the traditional point where GMs start to find trade partners and lay groundwork on deals.
We haven’t even gotten to the free-agent filing period, which is after World Series, so that market won’t be firmed up until we find out who’s re-signing with teams and who’s not tendered, all that.
I really think there are numerous ways this could go, a variety of possible routes to the Braves’ filling their primary needs, and we’re just at the beginning of the the process
By Lew
October 9, 2008 9:50 AM | Link to this
My Buddy N8 is NOT a racist. Negative? Yes? Verbose at times? Absolutely. Capable of driving a Fan to severe abstraction? Hell Yeah. But not a racist.
I realize it may be hard to read ALL of his lengthy posts, but point of view notwithstanding, he usually has something to say-even if it is usually coming from a somewhat more pessimistic view. WTF-He balances my Homerism.
The person to whom he referred in that post needs serious Psychological counseling. All Nathan needs is a small dose of Prozac.
By McFann Ô
October 9, 2008 10:01 AM | Link to this
I was just going back over the Blog, and I found Wayne’s Q’s at 1:15 yesterday morning:
What was the Braves record w/ both Chipper and McCann in the lineup? What was the record with one playing? With neither playing?
That’s a group of good Q’s. Seein’ as how it hasn’t been addressed yet, I’m on it!
I agree with ya, Wayne. The Braves need another big bat bad. And the guy they get cann not be injury prone!
By David O'Brien
October 9, 2008 10:02 AM | Link to this
Lew, while I would tend to agree with you, the particular post that night did raise eyebrows with me, too.
And there’s no sense going back and rehashing it all now, because the posts by the person he defended have long since been deleted. Moving on.
By mbatl
October 9, 2008 10:04 AM | Link to this
N8, good morning!
I felt that you were lending general credence to a post that I thought deserved nothing but complete repudiation (for those that don’t know, the post that got it all started was thankfully deleted). That you were just objecting to the particular terminology, but agreeing with the (vile) overall content. As I read it, that post (the original) had nothing to do with “thuggery” in general, and a lot to do with skin color and hatred.
If I misunderstood your point (and apparently I did), I sincerely apologize. And regardless I probably should’ve just let it pass and let the moderators clean up the garbage.
I enjoy your posts very much (which is why I was surprised and disappointed by what I THOUGHT I was hearing from you).
Again, you have my apology. No hard feelings on my end… hope not on yours’.
By Nate
October 9, 2008 10:31 AM | Link to this
I’m with all you guys who think the Braves need to get two outfielders this off season. Frenchy is a complete unknown, Anderson and Blanco are best used as fourth outfielders, and Schafer has never had a major league at-bat. Seems pretty clear to me that the Braves need two outfielders. I think it would be easier to make the case that the Braves need three outfielders, rather than conclude that one 40 HR guy will be sufficient.
Two outfielders that could combine for 40-45 HR would give the team the power it needs, and provide depth and versatility. It allows you to use Blanco or Anderson where they are best suited, and adding guys like Swisher or Blake who can play more than one position proved some insurance for Kotchman and the inevitable 40 games Chipper will miss.
By Lew
October 9, 2008 10:32 AM | Link to this
DOB-No intention of rehashing-just standing up for a guy who usually has his head tied on relatively straight. Glad the offending remarks were deleted.
BTW-What do you think of the new DiCaprio/Russell Crowe movie, Body of Lies? Is that one you’ll go to check out? I swear I’ve tried every way possible to not like Leo, but he keeps turning in excellent performances like in Blood Diamond and The Departed. I’ve always liked Crowe’s movies.
Do you think Appaloosa will be as good as it looks? Ed Harris is another actor who rarely turns in a bad performance. Maybe this will be as good a western as 3:10 To Yuma was.
By MGL
October 9, 2008 10:43 AM | Link to this
The Offense -
The Braves were 3rd in the NL in both AVG and OBP. CJ, BM, KJ, YE, MP were all above that average.
I would like to see the infield kept as it is with Prado and Infante on the bench. I also believe that Frenchy will be much improved next year. That leaves CF and LF. If they bring up Schafer for CF, and get a really good LF bat that can hit LHP, that leaves room on the bench for Anderson and either Norton/Diaz.
That could be a very good offense (including an above average bench). If any of the above players are traded, it just creates more holes to fill.
Therefore, with one good bat, all other resources can be directed toward pitching.
By DAP
October 9, 2008 10:50 AM | Link to this
Nate Frenchy is a complete unknown, Anderson and Blanco are best used as fourth outfielders, and Schafer has never had a major league at-bat. Seems pretty clear to me that the Braves need two outfielders.
yes. thank you.
By DAP
October 9, 2008 10:59 AM | Link to this
MGL but dont you think that just one guy who is a power threat would help us less than two players that are power threats? i agree with you that we dont need to trade any one from the infield, but shafer might suck. i think it would be better to bring him up when we already have a good offense we can ease him into.
my idea is to trade josh anderson and brent lillibridge to the white sox for nick swisher, and sign casey blake. blanco for 4th outfielder, shafer in AAA. still plenty of money for pitching, problem solved.
By Daybed Wagmoe
October 9, 2008 10:59 AM | Link to this
I’d rather sign one free agent pitcher (Lowe or Dempster) and make do with re-signing Mike Hampton, and either/or Smoltz and Glavine.MiamiBeachBravesFan
Really? You must be getting comfortable with being in 3rd and 4th place, because if that’s all we do, we’re going nowhere fast. If I’m reading what you’re suggesting correctly, then our rotation would look somewhat like this:
1) Lowe/Dempster 2/3) Smoltz/Glavine 2/3) Hampton 3/4/5) Jurrjens 3/4/5) Campillo 5/Spot Start?) Morton/Reyes/Carlyle/Bennett/James/Lerew/Parr
I’m not sure that this rotation is what you meant, that’s what it looked like to me though. I’m not sure if you meant to put one of Smoltz or Glavine that early in the rotation, but again, that’s what it sounds like. With this rotation, I think that we can definitely look forward to another year of finishing the season about 15-20 games behind the division leaders.
On a different note, I’m not too thrilled about the idea of signing Ryan Dempster as a front-end starter; or, if we do, I hope we don’t depend on him too much as our ace. I know that he just had a great year with Chicago, but I’m a bit inclined to say that he capitalized in his free agent walk year.
His career stats as a starter don’t scream “ace material”: in 195 career starts, he has a 68-64 record with a 4.64 era in 1195.1 innings (996 Ks, 593 BBs). He’s a one-time all-star (in 2000, as Florida’s lone representative, and he didn’t pitch in the game), and this season was the first time when he posted a sub-3.50 era as a starter and a sub-1.30 whip, either as a starter or reliever.
Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t see him as a viable option to take Hudson’s place as the Braves’ ace. If we trade for a Peavy or Lowe or someone who would be a legitimate ace, then I’d be up for signing him as a #2 for the rotation, but not as the ace.
By DAP
October 9, 2008 11:05 AM | Link to this
escobar SS
johnson 2B
Chipper 3B
McCann C
Swisher CF
Blake LF
Kotchman 1B
Francouer RF
solid power, very good OBP… i like. swisher only makes $5.3 mil in 2009, it might take $7-8mil per year at the most for blake. so weve spent about 13 of the $45mil we have to spend.
By David O'Brien
October 9, 2008 11:11 AM | Link to this
So now the Thrashers have an “alternate” red jersey for 14 home games.
(In the voice of Jerry Seinfeld): “What is the deal with the red jerseys?”
So is it “Redland” on those nights, or just red jerseys worn in “Blueland?”
By David O'Brien
October 9, 2008 11:15 AM | Link to this
Lew, Appaloosa started last week. Several here on the blog already saw it and liked it, compared it favorably to 3:10 To Yuma and a bit short of Unforgiven. At least that was the general consensus, I think, of the handful here who reviewed it. I plan to see it soon.
Body Of Lies looks outstanding. I haven’t ready early reviews of it yet, but Crowe looks to be in fine form. Hey, I used to be same way as you on Leo, back in Titanic days and all that. But he’s a helluva actor. Departed, The Aviator, Blood Diamond … dude can act.
By John Tarleton
October 9, 2008 11:19 AM | Link to this
DOB- don’t you think pitching is the hottest comodity in MLB right now? We need Starters, we have a pen. While I would hate to see Mike G. go, he is a major league proven player at a relatively low cost. Packaged with a minor leaguer or 2, he could likely bring back a stud outfielder. Our pen would not be desimated with Soriano, Smoltz (possibly,) Moylan, and the rest of the crew.
By cricket
October 9, 2008 11:30 AM | Link to this
Interesting per dollar success analysis of MLB teams, especially relevant in current economic environment (may be not really, since MLB is flush with cash). Off course this does not paint the whole picture but I hope will put things in perspective for the fans that berate the braves ownership about the payroll and point to it as the basic reason for failures in last 3 seasons.
MLB dollars per win
Here’s where braves stand on the list, better than only the mutts -
ATLANTA BRAVES Wins: 72 Salary: $102,365,683 Cost per win: $1,421,746 Rank: 15
By MGL
October 9, 2008 11:50 AM | Link to this
Dap, I have no problem with your approach. If 2 bats can be had for a third of the available cash, and two-thirds goes to pitching, I’m cool with that.
My concern is with some of the trades bantered about that give away some of the good parts of the offense and create more holes to fill.
By New Math?
October 9, 2008 12:03 PM | Link to this
my idea is to trade josh anderson and brent lillibridge to the white sox for nick swisher, and sign casey blake. blanco for 4th outfielder, shafer in AAA. still plenty of money for pitching, problem solved.DAP
this is the Swisher that just hit .219/.330/.410 in one of the best hitting parks in baseball? Are you crazy?Do you have a fixation or something? You actually want two guys starting that hit .240 just cause they hit 20 or so homers apiece? Thank God that ain’t gonna happen.
By David O'Brien
October 9, 2008 12:07 PM | Link to this
John T., don’t agree with you on trading Gonzo, not unless you’re bringing in another closer. Can’t count on Soriano coming off surgery, not after this past season. And Smoltz remains a big question mark. If he makes it back, seems doubtful to me that he could be a full-time closer. They probably won’t even know until January whether it’s likely he’ll pitch again.
Moylan is coming back from TJ surgery, so can’t count on him until May, and even then you know how guys can be in the initial months after coming back (see Gonzo, 2008).
DAYBED: I’m with you on Dempster. He’d be a solid No. 2, but I wouldn’t count on him as my No. 1. I mean, seriously, there’s a pretty good chance that Jurrjens will be a better pitcher than him by next season.
By flange1
October 9, 2008 12:10 PM | Link to this
Afternoon All,
Steve from Ohio,
Just playing with you on the spelling thing! You don’t see a Promethius line tossed out on the blog a lot. I laughed out loud at it.
And yes, I play a little guitar. I am a much better collector than player, but I try to improve….But I just love guitars, the feel, the smell, the look, I am a guitar addict!
StingerSplash, I am very lucky to have come up in a golfing house hold. I started going to the Masters in 1966 (the last year Hogan played) and went for 42 years straight. I played some in college, my brother was an NCAA All American all 4 of his college years and he went on to win a GA State Amateur. I have played golf with 4 Masters Champions, many US AM champions, and have the luck of meeting TONS of my golfing heros.
I am very blessed to have been brought up around golf. It is a great sport!
By nolie
October 9, 2008 12:12 PM | Link to this
Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t see him as a viable option to take Hudson’s place as the Braves’ ace. If we trade for a Peavy or Lowe or someone who would be a legitimate ace, then I’d be up for signing him as a #2 for the rotation, but not as the ace.Daybed
I pretty much agree with that. I don’t see the guy as a sure ‘nuff ace type pitcher. He might have gotten it all together for good, but more likely he had a career year. I too would be happy enough with him in a 3rd starter slot if a more certain ace-type dude is procured.
By DAP
October 9, 2008 12:20 PM | Link to this
New Math you are new. i can tell.
cameron will be 36, plays very good defense and has a career .340 OBP. thats good. just think of each walk he takes (an average of 72 per year, by the way) as a single. then, his batting average is closer to .340. hows that for you?
nick swicher had a pretty bad year for him, which is a good thing to me, because it make it easier to get him. hes only 27, so should we assume he will hit .219 every year for the rest of his career? definetly not. swisher has a career .354 OBP, which means if you think of his average of 91 walks per season as singles, he’s hitting .354. is that good enough for you?
both of these guys are adam dunn on a smaller scale. they strike out less, hit for a little less power, a little higher average. also, they actually play good defense, unlike dunn. but i guess you dont like adam dunn either, because despite his .400 OBP, he only hit .236 this year.
maybe when youre not so new, and learn a little about baseball, youll get it.
By mbatl
October 9, 2008 12:24 PM | Link to this
I’m thinking that we need ONE outfielder - a left fielder with power. I know they’re lightning rods, but I think Pat Burrell or Adam Dunn fit the bill. Depending, of course, on years/dollars. Let’s assume $15 mil/year (is that reasonable?).
Both are young enough, and consistent enough in what they do, that they could likely be traded when help arrives from the farm. But in the meantime, either would give us good OBP, and probably 30-40 HR. Not great defense, but hey… it’s left field.
Then sign Lowe for something like $17mil over 3 years. A big chunk, but if we can keep the terms to 3 yrs, not bad.
After that, use the farm (and not the key prospects) to work a trade with Tampa Bay for either Jackson or Sonnanstine. TB has so much young pitching (both MLB and Minors), that they’ve almost got to deal some.
So you’ve then spent $32 mil on LF/Starter, plus a few mil on a young starter. Leaves room for Hampton, Smoltz and (if necessary), Glavine.
Rotation: Lowe, Jurrjens, Hampton, Jackson, Morton/Reyes/Glavine (maybe Hanson).
Lineup: Schafer/Anderson, KJ, CJ, Burrell/Dunn, McCann, Escobar, Kotchman, Frenchy.
And a few dollars left over to build up the bench/bullpen.
(not to say we shouldn’t go after Peavy if he’s available, but I have a feeling not).
By Shaun
October 9, 2008 12:27 PM | Link to this
nolie and Daybed, how do you define ace? I don’t see many if any pitchers on playoff teams that are head-and-shoulders above Peavy. Of course he’s not a “sure ‘nuff” ace because no pitcher is. But he’s as close to “sure ‘nuff” as any pitcher around.
By Braveheart
October 9, 2008 12:35 PM | Link to this
While I would hate to see Mike G. go, he is a major league proven player at a relatively low cost. Packaged with a minor leaguer or 2, he could likely bring back a stud outfielder. Our pen would not be desimated with Soriano, Smoltz (possibly,) Moylan, and the rest of the crew.
Almost every good team needs a 4 strong reliever combo in the 7th, 8th, 9th. Go look at the teams in the postseason. Almost every single one of them had 4 main relievers who combined to give their teams 250+ innings and 40 runs less than average during those innings. Next year, we want to score 60 runs more than average and allow 60 runs less than average. Knowing that, lets look at the rotation and relievers this way (starters get a decision about every 8.5 innings thrown):
1 starter - 225 innings, +30 Runs Above Average (RAA), +40 Runs Above Run Support; 16 wins, 10 losses on average team;17 wins, 9 losses if he gets 5 runs a game from his offense 2 starter - 225 innings, +30 RAA; +40 RARS; 16-10 on avg offensive team; 17-9 with 5 run team 3 starter (Jurrjens) - 200 innings; +15 RAA; +25 RARS; 13-10 on average offensive team; 14-9 on 5 run team 4 starter - 175 innings, 0 RAA; +10 RARS; 10-10 on average offensive team; 11-10 on 5 run team 5 starter - 150 innings, -20 RAA, -10 RARS; 7-11 on average offensive team; 8-10 on a 5 run team4 main relievers - 250 innings, +40 RAA; +50 RARS
The rest of the relievers are league minimum paid guys who give you at worst replacement level work, which would be about 250 innings, -30 RAA, -20 RARS.
Will the Braves score at least 60 runs more than average next year? There’s a good chance. Here’s how I would estimate what they could do next year relative to the average runs for their positions: Catcher. +20 runs; First Base, -10 runs; Second Base. +15 runs; Short, +15 runs; Third Base +25 runs; Leftfield, +15 runs; Centerfield, -15 runs; Rightfield. -10 runs; pinch hitters, +5 runs.
That would make them a +60 RAA offense. If the average NL team scores 750 runs, that would make the Braves an 810 run team (a 5 run team). If you combine the +60 RAA offense with the +65 RAA pitching, you’ve got yourself a +125 RAA team. If teams theoretically get wins for every 10 or 11 RAA, you’re looking at a 92, 93 win team. That’s the model the Braves need to be building towards (and the model they actually seems to have before this season) and they’ve got a bit of work to do in building that.
So, no, trading Gonzalez would be dumb ….. letting Ohman walk away could likely be dumb as well …. there are just too many issues right now with Smoltz, Moylan and Soriano ….. Gonzalez and Ohman likely will give the Braves 125 innings next year and +20 RAA, so they likely need to be retained. In my estimation, the Braves likely need to add two good relievers, two aces, one average starter, and two average or better outfielders. Those are the big team needs right now. Don’t create more needs by letting Gonzalez or Ohman go
By DAP
October 9, 2008 12:42 PM | Link to this
mdatl if we choose between dunn and burrell, i would definetly take dunn. i like him alot better…but then we will have a very lefty laden lineup. and dunn is not to good vs lefties. oh well. either way, id take dunn over burrell.
By ssiscribe
October 9, 2008 1:05 PM | Link to this
The thought of Peavy being in a Braves’ uniform for at least four years is pretty enticing. Without blowing a big hole in the team to make it happen — there already are two holes in the rotation and a black hole lacking power in left field — I’d seriously consider shipping four or five players to San Diego.
I would not include Kelly Johnson in that deal, or any other, for that matter. Look at what KJ did in the final month of the season. Granted, he struggled at the plate in four of the six months, and his defense isn’t Gold Glove smooth out there, but I still see a lot of upside room for KJ.
Speaking of upside, don’t let the market get ya down, DOB. Just throw it in the filing cabinet. Five years from now, you’ll look back on them and smile at all the cheap shares you can buy right now.
And for what it’s worth: Dodgers in 6, Red Sox in 5.
The Scribe abides.
—30—
By Braveheart
October 9, 2008 1:11 PM | Link to this
the more I hear Smoltz and Glavine talking about how they want to come back next year, the more I feel like I’m watching this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AQfyOr3e-34
and the more I become afraid I’m gonna be watching this:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jzeYb_StdBU
By MGL
October 9, 2008 1:14 PM | Link to this
DOB - Do you expect to get any feedback from this week’s organizational meetings?
By brian
October 9, 2008 1:21 PM | Link to this
DOB - I have read a lot of comments from fantasy GM’s here but who do you think it will take to get Peavy, especially if Wren sticks to his position on not trading Hanson, Schafer, Heyward, etc?
Any chance the Giants move Cain for a package of KJ, Lillebridge, and Morton (or another pitcher not named Hanson or Teahan)?
I also assume Brandon Jones will be very available
By Lee in S GA
October 9, 2008 1:26 PM | Link to this
mbatl - I agree with your way of thinking and pretty much think the Braves will go that route. Sign one veteran pitcher, sign a veteran leftfielder and trade for a younger pitcher who has some major league experience in his resume. Just had soon not throw out any names. I do think the Braves will start spring training with the CF pieces they already have.
By rammerjammer
October 9, 2008 1:29 PM | Link to this
Peavy is a Padre icon and there’s a lot of local pushback to the idea of dealing him. If Towers pulls the trigger anyway, he will have to get…at minimum…a mid-rotation starter, an everyday player and one, maybe two, solid prospects.
Kelly Johnson makes sense as one piece of the puzzle. The starter? They’ll want Jurrjens. Prospect? Redmond, Hernandez, someone who projects to play in a couple of years perhaps.
If those are the players, does Frank say yes. Absolutely. Jurrjens is good…Peavy is great. If Frank lets Jurrjens stand in the way of Peavy…well, that defies logic.
Then, after that deal, you get a free-agent starter such as Lowe, Dempster, et al. Now you’ve got one of baseball’s best pitchers at the top of the rotation and a very solid number two. Hampton can be a fine #3, Campillo #4 and you hope Morton can mature into the #5 spot.
No, it’s not perfect. It’s not Maddux-Smoltz-Glavine. But it is a huge improvement, and it makes us competitive again.
By Random
October 9, 2008 1:31 PM | Link to this
Shaun:: “Original Jon, is Delmon Young on the trading block? The Twins gave up a young, talented pitcher for him. Unless they can get someone younger with as much potential, I can’t see that it makes sense for them. Maybe I’m wrong.”
BP’s AL Rumors and Rumblings (8 Oct): “The Twins are willing to trade left fielder Delmon Young following the emergence of rookie outfielder Denard Span this season.”
2008: .290/.336/.405
Career: .292/.326/.413
(Shouts out to Tomas, ccrider, RC & DAP.)
By flange1
October 9, 2008 1:35 PM | Link to this
Always good to get updates from the ssiscribe, one of my all time favorite posters!
I agree with Braveheart that we don’t need to trade Gonzo and we need to either re-sign Ohman of be able to sign or trade for a lefty that is similar.
I think with a combination of Bennett, Boyer and Acosta the team can fill at least 1 of the other 4 bullpen necessities. From the Soriano, Smoltz Moylan category I think we can fill the other necessity.
So to me, you have to resign Ohman or get a comparable lefty, keep Gonzo, and you can fill the rest of the pen with guys that you already have.
I know that Ohman is going to fetch 3-4 million a year for 2-3 years, but that is the going price of a quality guy.
With all of the other maybes in the pen, it would be nice to pay up for 1 guy that had a good year and took the ball whenever it was offered his way.
By DAP
October 9, 2008 1:37 PM | Link to this
rammerjammer i disagree. trading jurjens and johnson for peavy does not make us competitive again. it makes us the padres.
By Efrim
October 9, 2008 1:39 PM | Link to this
Just saw on a Keith Law chat that he proposed a suitable package from the Red Sox to send to the Padres for Peavy would be Clay Bucholz and Lars Anderson. He continued to say that he wouldn’t send that package if he were the Red Sox, but that you could expect San Diego to ask for that. Bucholz/Anderson is equal to Heyward/Hanson. Would you really blame Towers if he asked for that? I know I would. I really think he can get something similar from some club. Not sure which one, but some team will probably give top prospects for Peavy.
By Renegator
October 9, 2008 1:39 PM | Link to this
Guys
I don’t think the Braves are going to be able to get Lowe or Dempster.
According to mlbtraderumors.com the Yankees are going to be in big time in the Lowe sweepstakes so don’t count on the Braves outbidding Ol’ Hank.
Dempster will almost surely be a Cub again next year.
I wouldn’t get your hopes up that one of those two (or both) will be a Brave next year.
By John Tarleton
October 9, 2008 1:42 PM | Link to this
you have to give a strength to get a strength.
“In my estimation, the Braves likely need to add two good relievers, two aces, one average starter, and two average or better outfielders.” Good luck with that. 2 aces, a starter, 2 relievers,2 outfielders? that is a complete joke. 1st you don’t have the $. 2nd, you would have to trade the entire farm system.
By chuckw/deadjournalist
October 9, 2008 1:49 PM | Link to this
DOB - Will you be in town for the Broken Social Scene show in Nov.?
By David O'Brien
October 9, 2008 1:54 PM | Link to this
Scribe, good to hear from you. My comment you were referring to, my mailbox horror, was accidentally deleted when I went to change a word in it. So people know what you were referring to, here it is again:
Just got my mail, received my bi-monthly and quarterly statements on various Roth and rollover IRAs.
Made the mistake of actually opening the envelopes instead of simply sticking them in my file cabinet.
Grotesque. Shocking. Terrifying. Dispiriting. Sad. Fill in the adjective.
I’m just going to plan on working until I’m 90, then anything that changes that plan — well, other than death — will be a pleasant surprise.
By Braveheart
October 9, 2008 1:57 PM | Link to this
Good luck with that. 2 aces, a starter, 2 relievers,2 outfielders? that is a complete joke. 1st you don’t have the $. 2nd, you would have to trade the entire farm system.
Nah, sorry, ain’t a joke. It’s the truth. They won’t get it. I didn’t say that they will. And I don’t think they will win 90 games next year. And I won’t hold them to winning 90 games next year. It is however what they need to build towards and I set out how they need to go about it. It’s awfully naive to believe right now that there are not gaping holes with 3 starters, 3 key relievers and 2 outfielders.
By Daybed Wagmoe
October 9, 2008 1:59 PM | Link to this
Shaun:
But again, Peavy is a special talent. A serious ace. He is one of the eight or 10 bonafide, true “No. 1” pitchers in baseball, a pitcher you hand the ball to and expect to win every time.
DOB’s definition of an ace — a pitcher you hand the ball to and expect to win every time — is how I also would define “ace.” I’d expound on it a little bit — someone who you expect to win (or at the very least put your team in a great position to win), regardless of how many runs his team scores or who the opposing pitcher is. Someone who, in a must-win game, you’d want to pitch for you.
And you’re right — there aren’t any pitchers on playoff teams who are head and shoulders above Peavy.
By David O'Brien
October 9, 2008 2:00 PM | Link to this
Chuck, I don’t know the date of the show. I might be doing GM meetings first week in Nov., might not, just depends on whether we want to spend the money to send me there. I plan to go to the KU-Texas football game in Lawrence Nov. 15, be there a few days probably. Other than that, we’ll see what comes up.
By David O'Brien
October 9, 2008 2:03 PM | Link to this
MGL: Probably not much, if any. Wren’s already outlined the team’s needs/ priorities pretty specifically, and doesn’t help them mu