AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2008 > October > 02
Thursday, October 2, 2008
Looking at this Braves winter and beyond
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Settling into the offseason, which began earlier for the Bravos that it once did. Again. But really, it’s been enough years (three) of them not making the postseason that it no longer feels strange seeing them as one of the 22 teams on the outside looking in, rather than the eight inside, where everybody wants to be.
Anyway, the Braves are now scattered to the corners of North and South America and the Caribbean, done with baseball for a while (until Fall League or Winter League assignments, for some).
And while I’d prefer covering a team immersed in the playoffs at this point, after a few years of no postseason, at least it’s allowed me to catch up on a bunch of great returning TV series and a couple of new ones, including Sons of Anarchy. Love that show, though they shouldn’t have all the dudes in SOA riding with those windshields on their bikes. The Mayans’ bikes looked much badder in the last episode, no windshields, just a lot of ape-hanger bars on those Harleys.
Oh, and The Shield remains one of my favorite shows. Outstanding. Tense and gritty as ever. But can anyone seriously keep up with the feud between the Mexicans and Salvadorans that began at the end of last season and has been the focus of this season?
Damn, I find myself pausing the DVR sometimes just to try to think it through. I feel almost senile watching it, at times. Oh, well, we all just want to see what happens to Vick and Shane anyway, right?
Now, where were we?
I said on the radio yesterday that the Braves are still regarded as one of the elite major league franchises by most people who’ve been in or around the game for a while. They really are, though I know that might seem hard to believe for some frustrated fans.
But I added this, and I really believe it: They’d better get this thing turned around in the next year or two or the Braves’ brand, as the suits call it, will lose a lot of its cache quickly. That process already began, what with them not being on TBS nightly like they were back in the day, and now missing the playoffs once, twice, three times straight.
The memory of the Big Three pitchers and the run of divisional dominance and decade-and-a-half of regular-season excellence … all of that will start to slip from the national sports conscience. It already has, to a degree. No question.
But it’s still only three years. This isn’t like the Miami Dolphins or New York Knicks going from perennial contenders to laughingstocks. It’s a long way from that. But if they don’t put the brakes on this and get it turned around….
Well, enough doomsday scenarios. GM Frank Wren and the rest of the front office believes the Braves can be contenders next year by filling a few big needs, if they fill them properly. There are plenty, perhaps a majority, of pundits and fans who think otherwise, that the Braves have a two- or three-year rebuilding project before they get back to the postseason.
Me, I feel like Wren could be right — but only if the Braves do it right, if they get two legit proven starting pitchers, whether that’s sign reliable Derek Lowe to be an ace and trade for a potential stellar No. 2 starter like a Matt Cain (15-30 the past two seasons with the Giants, but pitched well enough to legitimately have been 30-15 in that span with good run support on a good team).
Or trade for a big-time No. 1 starter, a guy that perhaps we don’t even know right now will be on the trade block. Yes, I’m talking about a Roy Oswalt type of guy. You never know. The Braves traded for Tim Hudson in the prime of his career, didn’t they? And they have more than enough payroll room to take on Oswalt’s salary, and enough prospects and/or a young, cheap player to trade to a Houston team that might be looking toward the future.
Then there are the Marlins. With 17 players eligible for arbitration, keep an eye on Fredi Gonzalez’s team. I know they’d prefer to trade outside the division, but the Marlins might find irresistible a Braves offer for one of their talented young pitchers, or perhaps left fielder Josh Willingham (if the Braves didn’t spend any more than his salary in LF, they could have more to spend on pitching, starting or otherwise).
Again, I’m just tossing stuff out there, because chances are at least one of the moves the Braves make will be one that’s from out of left field.
Speaking of left field, they’ve got to get a guy with at least 25-30 homer potential next season, to hit fourth behind Chipper on a daily basis (or at least as daily a basis as Chipper’s in there, probably a 120-135 days. Makes it even more important to have that big bat when Chipper’s not in there, which they didn’t have this year once they traded Teixeira. And Teixeira didn’t hit much during April and May to begin with.)
OK, but we’ve got a lot of time to talk about this stuff. Moves generally don’t start happening until after the postseason, save for some players re-upping with current teams or some scattered trade rumors.
Hot Stove is going to be stoked this winter, folks. No doubt about that. Braves are going to be in the middle of a lot of rumors, some of them legit.
Future does look promising: Talking to Wren on Monday, he reiterated what he’s said before about the depth and quality in the minor league system and how the Braves need to fill some needs now through free agency or trades until they start to get another steady flow of impact-type players from their system.
He acknowledged they haven’t produced any of their own impact-type players from the organization since the crop of “Baby Braves” came up in 2005 (and, we might add, most of those guys, with the exception of Brian McCann, haven’t enjoyed the sort of career ascendance the Braves hoped they would.)
Most of the Braves’ top minor-league talent is still a year or more away, though a couple of them — CF Jordan Schafer, pitcher Tommy Hanson perhaps? — could be here sooner.
But Wren’s not just blowing smoke up the blog when he says the Braves have a lot of talent in their system at the Double-A level and lower.
Perusing the new issue of Baseball America that just arrived at offseason Braves/MIB Blog Headquarters (aka my house in Atlanta), a few familiar names jumped out from the magazine’s list of Top-20 prospects in each minor league.
A few of these guys could be in the Braves’ lineup, Schafer as soon as next season, OF Jason Heyward, 1B Freddie Freeman by 2011, OF Gorkys Hernandez maybe 2011 (it’s not difficult to imagine a Braves of Schafer, Heyward and Hernandez.
Anyway, here are Braves who made the BA lists:
TRIPLE-A: Charlie Morton was the No. 9 prospect in the International League, where he didn’t up a home run in 12 starts before he was promoted to the majors. Folks, don’t let the impression you got of Morton with Atlanta spoil it for you; the kid is extremely talented, but that shoulder-blade thing sapped him of his velocity up here and he wasn’t the same pitcher I saw last fall in Arizona or that minor league opponents saw this early summer. We saw him throw about 91-93 in the majors most of the time, about 4-5 mph off his best.
He’ll be back next year on top of his game, I have a feeling. Needs to strengthen the shoulder and do the type of specific workouts he hasn’t done in the past, to withstand the rigors of pitching many innings at a high level.
OF Brandon Jones was the No. 17 prospect in the International League. Not sure what to make of his future, since he’s not talked about by the Braves the way he was in the past and had a underwhelming year in the minors. Wren said Monday that the nagging shoulder injury that brought Jones home early from the Mexican Winter League probably robbed him of some power all season.
We’ll see. Maybe he was saying that for the benefit of other teams that might be interested in trading for him, or maybe it’s just the truth. We’ll see.
By the way, check out the names from BA’s top 10 International League prospects list five years ago: 1. Jose Reyes, 2. Justin Morneau, 3. Victor Martinez, 4. Chase Utley, 5. Freddy Sanchez, 6. Adam LaRoche, 7. Brandon Claussen, 8. Cliff Lee, 9. Jeremy Guthrie, 10. Coco Crisp.
DOUBLE-A: Tommy Hanson came in at No. 9 on the Southern League list, despite only being promoted to the league from high-A Myrtle Beach in June and struggling initially to make the adjustment. But man, did he ever make it.
Beginning with his 14-strikeout no-hitter June 25 vs. Birmingham, Hanson went on a 5-1, 1.41 ERA tear in which he recorded 79 strikeouts in 57 innings. This after starting out the season at Myrtle by going 3-1 with an 0.90 ERA in seven starts, with 49 strikeouts (11 walks) in 40 innings.
For the season, Hanson led full-season minor league pitchers with a 2.41 ERA and 163 strikeouts. Dude throws a 91-94 mph fastball with excellent life, the scouts say, and he honed a devastating slider that he first broke out for game action in that no-hitter.
CF Jordan Schafer slipped to No. 13 prospect in the Southern League after entering the season as the Braves’ No. 1-rated prospect and heir apparent to Mark Kotsay in CF. That’s what a 50-game early season suspension for suspected HGH use will do for you.
It set him back, but Schafer still finished the season hitting .269 with a .378 OBP and .471 slugging, and a strong last two months upped his totals 18 doubles, 10 homers and 12 stolen bases in 297 at-bats. I talked to Mississipi manager Phil Wellman about Schafer when Wellman was up with Atlanta in September, and he said the kid really impressed him in the last two months of the season, after trying too hard initially to make up for the lost 50 games.
Here’s what Frank Wren said Monday about him: “The last two months of the season put him back in a top prospect position. Put it this way: He’s better than most of the competitors in the league he played in… He’s in the group of those who will be challenging for a job [with Atlanta in spring training]. Whether he’s in the final mix, I don’t know yet. But he’s put himself back in that position.”
Me, personally? If I had to guess, I’d say Schafer is going to be in center field on opening day. There, I said it.
By the way, BA’s top 10 list of Southern League prospects in 2003 included: Miguel Cabrera, J.J. Hardy and Dan Haren, among others.
High CLASS-A: 20-year-old CF Gorkys Hernandez was one of the youngest players in the Carolina League, and one of the best. He was rated the No. 3 prospect in a league in which 22-year-old former Georgia Tech catcher Matt Wieters was No. 1 (Wieters is also BA’s Minor League Player of the Year for all levels, and the cover boy on the issue before this one of the so-called Bible of the Sport).
The little synopsis of Hernandez said he was the best defensive OF in the league and that his overall skills rated second only to Wieters’. The description of Hernandez ended: “A five-tool athlete with above-average speed that translates equally well the outfield and basepaths, Hernandez projects as a big-league leadoff hitter with 40-steal potential.”
Don’t know about five tools (he’s not a power hitter), but four tools should certainly be enough to establish him as a Braves cornerstone-type player in a few years, if they don’t trade him before then.
Myrtle Beach SS Brandon Hicks was rated the No. 13 prospect in the Southern League.
Low CLASS-A: Big Jason Heyward came in at No. 2 on the lists of South Atlantic League prospects, with Rome roommate Freddie Freeman at No. 10. Heyward hit .323 (third in the league) with a .388 OBP (fourth in the league), and the Henry County High graduate had 27 doubles, six triples, 11 homers, 15 steals and 52 RBI. The 19-year-old was the top-rated position-player prospect in the league, with Giants pitcher Madison Bumgarner rated as the No. 1 overall prospect in the league.
“Scouts love Heyward’s 6-foot-5, 220-pound frame,” BA wrote. “With his sweet lefthanded swing that projects to produce significant power numbers, he attracts comparisons to a young Dave Parker.” (Personally, I think he looks very similar to a youth Derrek Lee. I was covering the Marlins when they got D-Lee from San Diego, and his long limbs, narrow waist and V-shaped back back then are what Heyward looked like when I saw him last spring. D-Lee filled out to about 240 pounds.)
(By the way, did you guys happen to know that Heyward’s parents both went to Dartmouth? Well, you do now.)
Freeman had a the breakthrough year for the Braves, shooting up their prospects chart with his .316/.378/.521 with 33 doubles, seven triples, 18 homers and 95 RBI. Like Heyward, he doesn’t strike out much. Great plate discipline. And Freeman is regarded as a very good defensive first baseman, in addition to the impressive hitting.
Also on the top 20 South Atlantic League list from the Rome team were a couple of the Braves’ top pitching prospects, 13. Jeff Rohrbaugh and 14. Jeff Locke, and outfielder Cody Johnson at No. 20.
Oh, and if you want to see an interesting prospect list, look at the 2003 BA top 10 from the South Atlantic League: 1. B.J. Upton, 2. Scott Kazmir, 3. Cole Hamels, 4. Jeff Francoeur, 5. Jeremy Hermida, 6. Hanley Ramirez (are you kidding me? No. 6?), 7. Fausto Carmona, 8. Merkin Valdez, 9. Scott Olson, 10. Mike Hinckley.
OK, I’m gonna leave it at that, not get into the Rookie League lists and all. It’s getting late.
Diversions: Rewarded myself with an end-of-season CD buying binge this week. In one day picked up a haul that included: The mighty Otis Redding’s reissued Live In London & Paris; Okkervil River’s The Stand Ins (I like it, but not quite as much as their last two); Teddy Thompson’s A Piece of What You Need (Richard Thompson’s son has become quite a performer in his own right); Gentleman Jesse’s self-titled debut CD (folks, I can’t recommend this brilliant recording from an Atlanta band high enough for any of you who like, say, early Joe Jackson or Nick Lowe, or just great low-fi rock with pop hooks and a punk ‘tude); Cold War Kids’ Loyalty to Loyalty (I like it a lot, but not as much as their great debut CD, which everyone should have); Creedence Clearwater Revival’s Green River (remastered just-released 40th anniversary edition of a classic); Carrie Rodriguez’ She Ain’t Me (if you’ve never heard of her, you should remember the name - it’s terrific); Tom Morello: The Nightwatchman’s The Fabled City (even better than his solo debut, this one’s political/protest rock revved up a bit and produced by Atlanta’s own producer-to-the-stars Brendan O’Brien; Freedy Johnson’s The Trouble Tree (1990 debut by the Kansas troubadour); Uncle Tupelo’s Still Feel Gone (remastered version of their seminal second album); The Rosebuds’ Night of the Furies (love the Rosebuds from N.C., one of the most underrated rock bands anywhere), and Elvis Costello’s Imperial Bedroom (the two-disc, expanded version of one of his must-have masterworks, which I’ve now bought in five or six different forms, from LP and cassette to CD, to expanded single-disc CD, to this even-more-expanded opus. I’m a sucker, but it’s terrific.)
OK, a tune to wrap it up. This song has always done it for me, but sometimes more than others. As I get older, more than ever. If you don’t know or have a “Martha,” I bet you will. Met mine in Fort Lauderdale. She lived in Sausalito, Calif., last time I spoke with her. My ex-wife was absolutely convinced I stayed in contact with this girl in the years when I never did. Dammit.
”MARTHA” by Tom Waits
Operator, number, please:
it’s been so many years
Will she remember my old voice
while I fight the tears?
Hello, hello there, is this Martha?
this is old Tom Frost,
And I am calling long distance,
don’t worry ‘bout the cost.
‘Cause it’s been forty years or more,
now Martha please recall,
Meet me out for coffee,
where we’ll talk about it all.
And those were the days of roses,
poetry and prose and Martha
all I had was you and all you had was me.
There was no tomorrows,
we’d packed away our sorrows
And we saved them for a rainy day.
And I feel so much older now,
and you’re much older too,
How’s your husband?
and how’s the kids?
you know that I got married too?
Lucky that you found someone
to make you feel secure,
‘Cause we were all so young and foolish,
now we are mature.
And those were the days of roses,
poetry and prose and Martha
all I had was you and all you had was me.
There was no tomorrows,
we’d packed away our sorrows
And we saved them for a rainy day.
And I was always so impulsive,
I guess that I still am,
And all that really mattered then
was that I was a man.
I guess that our being together
was never meant to be.
And Martha, Martha,
I love you can’t you see?
And those were the days of roses,
poetry and prose and Martha
all I had was you and all you had was me.
There was no tomorrows,
we’d packed away our sorrows
And we saved them for a rainy day.
And I remember quiet evenings
trembling close to you…
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