Braves

By Chuck James is solid until the 6th!! (Formerly Steve-O)

September 24, 2008 1:56 PM | Link to this

Yes, my “monicker” is old but I still have hope Chuck will rebound strong because his success took a turn right around the time an injury hit him and he has not fully recovered since..

By Renegator

September 24, 2008 1:59 PM | Link to this

Nice blog DOB

By Thrillhouse44

September 24, 2008 2:03 PM | Link to this

Glad to see Kotchman is getting his groove back. If he and KJ can hit like this consistently, our infield will be solid next year.

I think I may have to cop that Baseball Project CD.

By Random

September 24, 2008 2:04 PM | Link to this

Braveheart: “Shaun, you’ll like this about the quality of preseason predictions …”

You both might enjoy this classic from FJM.

By StingerSplash

September 24, 2008 2:06 PM | Link to this

Fifth? If I’m the Braves, I take a shot at a two-year deal between $10M and $13.5M (yes, those numbers were just plucked out of thin air. So what.) with an option for a third year (could be team, player or mutual). This isn’t the Mike Hampton of 1999 (duh!) but he could be a quality 3 or 4 guy. You put Jurrjens at 1, go get a 2 guy, have Hampton-Glavine at 3-4 and Campillo at 5 …. I’m loathe to put Campillo at 2 because I would want somebody who throws a little harder before I hit the 3-5 guys, otherwise you’ve got way too many guys in a row who are too similar (though when the Cubs did that last year against the Braves with Sean Marshall and I now forget the other dude’s name on back to back nights, the Braves had so little clue they made Clouseau look like Mike Hammer).

By DAP

September 24, 2008 2:06 PM | Link to this

i think the braves resign hammy if they can get him for less than what they paid glavine. maybe 2 years $10mil. it seems low, but it may be doable. the braves at least need to try. despite hampton’s injuries, he is one of the better starters available on the free agent market, and our young inexperienced rotation really needs a veteran.

By StingerSplash

September 24, 2008 2:09 PM | Link to this

One other thing … Any reviews on Metallica’s “Death Magnetic”? The closing for “The Day That Never Comes” makes me think of the Drive-By Truckers, only if they were really hopped up on greenies.

By dcarp23

September 24, 2008 2:09 PM | Link to this

Chase Utley has to be the clear MVP candidate from the Phils. He slugs less and has hit less homers (though still did both at an extremely high level) and did everything else better at a more difficult position. If the winner is not Utley, Pujols or David Wright, it would be the worst choice of MVP since…last year, with Jimmy Rollins.

Pujols numbers are so ridiculous, plus he is considered by many to be the best fielder at his position, that he SHOULD win the award going away.

By waterstim

September 24, 2008 2:14 PM | Link to this

DOB I’m sure you have explained this many times, but are the Braves ok with losing these high draft picks for the 2 free agent pitchers that they say they are going for? Thanks.

By Fanders

September 24, 2008 2:19 PM | Link to this

Where art thou, Fanders?

By Fanders

September 24, 2008 2:19 PM | Link to this

Where art thou, Anders?

By DAP

September 24, 2008 2:27 PM | Link to this

waterstim i wont be the only one to tell you that the top 15 pick are protected. the braves wont lose their first pick by signing a free agent.

By Chuck James is solid until the 6th!! (Formerly Steve-O)

September 24, 2008 2:34 PM | Link to this

Sign Hampton to a two-year deal?? Drinking Moonshine in the early afternoon are ya? IF they offer Hampton anything, which I believe they will, it will be an incentive-laded deal that can get him up around 6 mill IF he pitches 150+ innings…I think something in the ball park of that for Glav too if he hits around that mark…But a 2 year guaranteed 12-13 mill out of the gate for Hampton? Thats laughable, apparently you went in a coma on August 12, 2005 and came out in August 2008…

By Richie

September 24, 2008 2:39 PM | Link to this

I sure hope the Braves don’t make Hampton an offer. Even if he’s cheap, he’s not worth the risk. Everyone will be better off letting him move on to another team.

By Eware

September 24, 2008 2:39 PM | Link to this

My thoughts for next year’s team…

1) Do everything possible to sign Norton - he’s rad

2) Keep Kelly - dude’s a team guy and should become more consistent

3) Sign JJ to a long-term deal - cut out arb years and add one or two - might be risky, but I’d like to keep this guy around as long as possible

4) Trade for a left fielder - i.e. Maggs, Hermida

5) Sign DOB to a long-term deal - it’s risky given his penchant for Bright Eyes, but most everything else is good

6) Keep Frenchy - he’s proved that he’s a clutch hitter - just having a bad year - too early to give up on him

7) Give Anderson a shot in center, but look for a power CF - at least keep him as 4th outfielder - drop Blanco

8) Sign two mid to upper tier pitchers - i.e. Dempster, Lowe

9) Force a Braves player to have “Icky Thump” as their song

That’s about it. Thanks for the great year, DOB. I had a lot of fun reading your blogs. Looking forward to the offseason.

By Shaun

September 24, 2008 2:43 PM | Link to this

I don’t think Howard is the most valuable player on his own team. I agree with dcarp23 that Utley is more valuable. He plays better defense at a tougher position, his on-base is better and his slugging is almost as good.

You could make a compelling argument that Pat Burrell is more valuable that Howard. I’m almost certain that he’s just as valuable.

And as unbelievable as it sounds, Jayson Werth may be as valuable as Howard strictly on a per game basis. Werth has a much better on-base and his slugging is not all that far off. Plus Werth is clearly the better baserunner and defender. Werth has created 7.3 runs per game while Howard is at 6.3.

Keep in mind that runs created, in its most basic form, is simply (H + BB) * (TB)/ (AB + BB). So whether you think it’s literally the number of runs a player creates, I think you still have to concede it gives us a pretty good idea of player value.

By BossLady

September 24, 2008 2:52 PM | Link to this

Considering Chipper has sat out a number of days in September, who knows where the batting title would have ended. Pujols played it out everyday. Chipper did not. I know, I know Chipper has played enough to qualify, but I also know that he did not play as many games as Pujols. Whether, he thinks so or not who knows what could have happened if he had played

By Dadgum

September 24, 2008 3:01 PM | Link to this

DOB….the Braves simply can’t afford to keep Hampton on the payroll. One pitch and his career could be over if it isn’t already. Simply too much injury baggage to roll the dice. If I were a betting man my guess is that Wren doesn’t sign him. Hats off to Hampton though.

Was in Buckhead on business a couple of weeks ago. Had some good tacos at the Taco Shack on Roswell and a few brews at Stouts. It’s a new Irish pub on Andrews@Roswell. You’re probably aware of them but just thought I would pass it along.

Rock on……….can’t wait for Elton in Chalottesville.

By David O'Brien

September 24, 2008 3:04 PM | Link to this

Waterslim, the Braves haven’t said they’re going for two free agents, first of all. And secondly, if they do go for them, well, I guess that means they’re OK with it.

By geauxbraves2000

September 24, 2008 3:04 PM | Link to this

Random thoughts:

Kotchman’s life was turned upside down when he was traded. He went from a powerhouse contender w/WS aspirations to the struggling Braves. Not to mention changing leagues. If that doesn’t put you into a slump, nothing will. I think he will be okay.

It would be nice to surround him w/a couple of bashers though, that couldn’t hurt.

As far as pitchers:

CC - no thanks, too much $$ and the Brewers are riding him hard this year, it could have an effect.

Sheets - no thanks, that’s all the Braves need is another injury prone pitcher.

I have faith FW will get what he needs to make this team a contender again in 2009.

Geaux Braves!!

By Rico

September 24, 2008 3:08 PM | Link to this

DOB, just got back from Philly. Had a great time Monday. I gave as good as I got from the Phans. Yelled my lungs out. Especially when Kelly hit his two-run shot to tie the game. Even caught a foul ball off Rollins’ bat. Hung on to my beer in the left hand and made a nice stab with my right. Left a nice bruise and cut from where the ball hit the ring. Fans started to cheer until they realized they were cheering for some dude in a Braves cap and a McCann jersey. Then I got booed roundly. Most everybone was pretty good natured. Hell, what’s not to be in a good mood about if you’re a Philly fan?

All in all, a great time was had.

By David O'Brien

September 24, 2008 3:09 PM | Link to this

Shaun, others: I didn’t say Howard was the Phillies’ MVP or would win the NL MVP, just that he’s put his name in the group of frontrunners with this second-half surge.

And while you could certainly make a case for Utley, I can tell you that Philly folks I’ve talked to the last couple days, including voting writers, will absolutely NOT have Burrell ahead of Howard, and they’re the ones who’ve seen them play all season.

One of them told me Burrell disappears offensively for too many games and still hurts the team too frequently with his defense.

By DAP

September 24, 2008 3:14 PM | Link to this

One pitch and his career could be over

there isnt one pitcher in any level of professional baseball that this statement isnt true about.

hampton has made every single start since coming back from his injury (which admittedly took awhile), but seeing how well he has pitched, and how healthy he has stayed, i dont see why he is any more risky than any other 35 year old pitcher. in fact, he is probably less risky than a young pitcher who hasnt yet had tommy john surgery.

i say make him an offer.

By David O'Brien

September 24, 2008 3:15 PM | Link to this

Eware, a lot of very good, reasonable suggestions (particularly the one about signing me long term, though the paper doesn’t give long-term contracts).

But Hermida or Maggs? Dude, that’s a helluva wide range. Hermida? Gotta aim higher than that, particularly if you’ve got Francoeur in right and who knows in center. Need some proven power in left. Please compare Hermida’s numbers to Francoeur’s and tell me why you’re big on signing Hermida.

By David O'Brien

September 24, 2008 3:24 PM | Link to this

Shaun, just went back and looked at Burrell’s stats again. You must be kidding when you say he could be more valuable than Howard.

Burrell is hitting .247 with 33 homers, 85 RBI and an .867 OPS in 530 at-bats (154 games).

Howard is hitting .248 with 46 homers, 141 RBIs and an .872 OPS in 597 at-bats (158 games).

Their defense is a wash.

So please, Shaun, tell me how in the world you can argue that Burrell might be more valuable than Howard. That’s borderline ludicrous.

By the way, with runners in scoring position, Howard is hitting .312 (54-for-173) with a .434 OBP and .561 slugging percentage, while Burrell is hitting .236 (30-for-127) with a .358 OBP and .472 slugging.

By I Watch The Show Knight Rider

September 24, 2008 3:26 PM | Link to this

Richie…Google what an “incentive-based deal” is….It makes a world of sense to sign Hampton back with an incentive-based deal…If we get nothing for him while Huddy and Smoltz are rehabbing cool, we lose 1 or 2 million max…If he gives us alot he gets boosts in his pay at certain marks IE: 150 innings pitched, 20 starts..And both sides win cause I was at the game last night and he has been getting better by the start and he was DEALING with that cutter last nite..It’s ALL about the incentive-based deals with Glav and Hamp..

By Ben

September 24, 2008 3:30 PM | Link to this

My plan for 2009:

1) Do all you can to sign CC. If this doesn’t happen, sign Sheets.

2) Avoid Lowe - he may be more sought after than Sheets, given the latter’s health history, driving Lowe’s price unnecessarily high, and making Sheets a possible “steal.”

3) Let Glav retire, let Hampton go, sign Smoltz to a deal contingent on IP and other performance-based metrics, resign Campillo.

4) Keep the entire infield, except Prado, who you package with Francoeur and a low-A pitcher (Locke, Rodgers?) to KC for Greinke. Prado’s value has never bene higher, Moore loves Francoeur, and before this year, each of these two pitchers were highly rated in our system.

5) Sign Burrell. It’ll take at least a 3 year, $40 million deal, and we get a .255-.260 avg, 30-35 HR, 100 RBI guy every year in between Chip and Mac. Not a bad 3-5 in the order.

6) Put Anderson in center, let Blanco and B. Jones fight for RF, and there you go.

7) Re-sign Gonzo.

Team looks like this:

Lineup: Anderson, Yunel, Chip, Burrell, Mac, KJ, Kotchman, Blanco.

Starting Pitching: CC/Sheets, Greinke, JJ, Campillo, Morton/Reyes/Smoltz when healthy.

If Smoltz is re-signed for a small amount, Hudson’s salary is taken care of in part by insurance, Hampton & Glav’s contracts are gone, we’ll have a lot of money to spend. Should be able to afford all this.

By Shaun

September 24, 2008 3:31 PM | Link to this

DOB, I can’t speak for others but I realize its not necessarily your view that Howard is the MVP or Phillies MVP. I was just expressing my views on the subject.

And I disagree with those who don’t think Burrell is at least very close to as valuable as Howard (again, not saying that is your opinion). I think the evidence is quite clear that Burrell is close.

And I know some are going to take exception because I’m disagreeing with those that see the Phillies everyday. But I can see as much evidence as the MVP voters who don’t see the Phillies everyday. What should we do, only allow people to vote on the MVP if they’ve seen every single National League game?

By gayle

September 24, 2008 3:31 PM | Link to this

For a team that will end the season 20 or so games under .500 and out of contention since the beginning of August - didn’t they learn anything this year?

The fact that Glavine, Smoltz and Hampton are even being mentioned suggests that they haven’t.

We have seen what happens when you go into a season on a wing, a prayer, two geezers and a rehab project in the rotation. It doesn’t work.

If this organization is serious in building a contender - and I can only assume that they are - then I say you cut your ties with the past and start over.

The failure of this organization to do that and live on past glories only will prolong the agony.

Arizona and Randy Johnson, New York and Mussina and Wang will also be watching the playoffs while the Rays and their youth will be in the thick of it.

I’m all for the nucleaus of young players to build around - but why stop there?

And to beat a dead horse, it wouldn’t hurt to do some cleaning in the dugout as well.

By Lee in S GA

September 24, 2008 3:31 PM | Link to this

Guess Hampton will be the newest villain once he signs with the highest bidder, which I think is exactly what he will do. Then I can hardly wait to read the remarks made about him.

By Msal6

September 24, 2008 3:36 PM | Link to this

Darrell Evans led the American league in homeruns in 1985 with a batting average below .250. He never won the MVP award, Don Mattingly won the AL MVP award in 1985.

By BA

September 24, 2008 3:39 PM | Link to this

That’s nice and all about Oh-Man going for the appearances record. What’s the AJC record for blog appearances? DOB, are you in the neighborhood?

All this talk of free agents is nice. But I say it’s going to take a big time offseason trade- think Hudson. I still think we could exploit the AAA Florida Marlins for a couple of their young arms.

By Shaun

September 24, 2008 3:42 PM | Link to this

DOB, I don’t know about ludicrous. I do agree Howard is probably slightly more valuable but it’s a lot closer than it looks on the surface.

If you look at park-adjusted stats, they are about equal (both have an OPS+ of 121). But Howard has played four more games.

By Steve from OH

September 24, 2008 3:43 PM | Link to this

In fairness, Howard has a lower EqA (by about 5 points) than Burrell, although Howard leads Burrell in VORP by about 3 “VORP points.”

Burrell’s OBP is higher by 30 points, and Howards’s SLG is higher by 30 points. Edge to Burrell.

Of course, you could also make the argument that Howard’s numbers are less valuable from 1B than Burrell’s are from left, but I personally think that Burrell’s defense is bad enough to put him slightly behind Howard. Not that it’s a stretch to say Burrell is more valuable than Howard, but the only really noticeable edge he has over Howard is OBP, and a very slight edge in EqA. Howard outslugs him and has a better VORP.

So I’d say Burrel either has a slight statistical edge or it’s a wash; defensively, it’s Howard all the way.

Chase Utley is nearly 30 points ahead of Howard in VORP, way ahead in OBP, and only two points behind in SLG. He’s the team MVP.

But they’re all good players, and I’d like to have all of ‘em on my team.

By Random

September 24, 2008 3:43 PM | Link to this

BossLady: “Considering Chipper has sat out a number of days in September, who knows where the batting title would have ended. Pujols played it out everyday. Chipper did not. I know, I know Chipper has played enough to qualify, but I also know that he did not play as many games as Pujols. Whether, he thinks so or not who knows what could have happened if he had played”

So what — who cares?

PS: “Whether, he thinks so or not” == ???????

By Ben

September 24, 2008 3:45 PM | Link to this

BA: your post is like a year late.

By David O'Brien

September 24, 2008 3:46 PM | Link to this

Good to hear, Rico. I should’ve sent you to Reading Terminal for a sandwich at Tommy DiNic’s. Just devoured a big ol’ roasted pork sandwich with peppers and provolone. Just ate it here in the pressbox. Fortunately I finished it before the garbage compactor, er, Bowman, entered the building.

THIS JUST IN: Chipper’s in the lineup.

By Shaun

September 24, 2008 3:48 PM | Link to this

Here is something amazing: Jayson Werth has a 120 OPS+. Howard and Burrell each have 121 OPS+. Werth is 19-for-20 in steal attempts. I don’t know for sure, but I would almost guarantee that Werth is the best defender of the three players.

Imagine where the Phillies would be if Werth had played more than 130 games and 468 plate appearances.

Most underrated player in the bigs?

By David O'Brien

September 24, 2008 3:49 PM | Link to this

I think the evidence is quite clear that Burrell is close.Shaun

No, my man. I gotta say, it’s not at all clear. Again, please look at the numbers and explain to me how in the world you can say that.

By T-Bone

September 24, 2008 3:53 PM | Link to this

Bring Smoltz back as a closer. His arm won’t let him start any more. Then you’ve got a pen of Smoltz, Gonzo, Soriano, and Moylan (when he returns). That ain’t bad.

Sign CC, and couple of big bats for the outfield.

By mitchie-san

September 24, 2008 3:54 PM | Link to this

How are you gonna trade a guy getting Tommy John surgery? Thats just dumb.

By Shaun

September 24, 2008 3:57 PM | Link to this

DOB, see my 3:42. Steve also has a good post at 3:43.

By MGL

September 24, 2008 3:58 PM | Link to this

Ben — I’m glad you are not the GM.

By Hoosier Aaron

September 24, 2008 4:07 PM | Link to this

With the lack of power, lack of starting pitching, lack of a bullpen and most importantly lack of wins - there should be very few untouchables. We cannot have more than one of Blanco, Anderson or B Jones on the field at the same time…no way. I rather see us throw Jason Heyward, Cody Johnson and Jordan Schafer out there and take our chances. The focus needs to be on pitching - we can’t “hope” some of these guys will be healthy. JoJo and Morton need to work things out at Gwinnett next year - not Atlanta.

For the record, has anyone seen a team pop the ball up on the infield more with runners in scoring position and less than two out than this team? Good grief - a ground ball on the right side would move a runner over and in some cases score a run. I’d like to know how many times we’ve done that this year - has to be tops in the league.

By ncscoots

September 24, 2008 4:08 PM | Link to this

*If you look at park-adjusted stats, *

The Spirit Of Mike Cameron redux. The Evil That Just Won’t Die.

Love me while I’m here, mama, but park-adjust me when I’m gone, LOL.

By McFann :Ô:

September 24, 2008 4:10 PM | Link to this

Thanks for the new Blog, Chief!

Good news about Chipper…I think…

By Steve from OH

September 24, 2008 4:12 PM | Link to this

Sign CC, and couple of big bats for the outfield.

Of course, it’s so simple! Frank Wren, get on it, buddy! While you’re at it, why don’t you trade Buddy Carlyle, Ruben Gotay, Corky Miller, and 3 cans of skoal for Jake Peavy?

Sorry for being so snarky, man. Your heart’s in the right place. The pocketbook, on the other hand…

By BravesFan79

September 24, 2008 4:14 PM | Link to this

We will have the best pen in the NL if we have Ohman, Smoltz, Moylan and Gonzo. We need to trade Soriano and find a way 2 keep Ohman!

And i say offer Glavine a 1 year contract worth no more than 2 million. And Hampton a 1 year deal worth no more than 3 million.

I would MUCH rather keep Ohman in the pen than keep Mike (NOT a big game pitcher) Hampton around!!

By McFann :Ô:

September 24, 2008 4:16 PM | Link to this

Well, I hope Francoeur doesn’t play tonight…I mean, Brett Myers just owns him!

; >

By BravesFan79

September 24, 2008 4:20 PM | Link to this

I still want Roy Halliday as the ACE of my team anyday!! If we trade for a starter, THATS who we need to get!

By Shaun

September 24, 2008 4:22 PM | Link to this

ncscoots, I suppose paying attention to context is evil.

By RBG

September 24, 2008 4:30 PM | Link to this

DOB-I was at the Braves town hall meeting last fri and Frank said the Braves are going to target a couple of pitchers and a slugger. From what I see out of a lot of these free agents (Burrell,abreu) are not very good defensively and strike out a ton. Instead power flailers what would you think about making a run for Juan Pierre? I know his throwing arm isnt very good but it cant be any worse then the 2 I mentioned. Put him at leadoff and there is a tremendious scoring opportunity for Chipper. How can we not score runs when our 3rd hitter is batting .360? Simple its because leadoff and losing Edgar in the second spot cost us. so heres what I would do.

make a run at CC try to make a trade for roy halladay (i know pipe dream)

make JJ the 3rd starter

sign Smoltz to an incentive laden deal $2 guarunteed

sign Glavine to the same

sign Hampton to the same. Some above said to give Hampton 6 mil guarunteed. I say6 million on all 3 pitchers with lots of incentives.

trade for Pierre and have him as leadoff and play left re-sign Edgar Renteria to bat second and play short. Chipper of course bats 3rd McCann bats clean up Escobar moved to second and 5th in lineup new center fielder Kotchman Francoeur

probably would have to trade Kelly or Yunel

By ernisTbass

September 24, 2008 4:32 PM | Link to this

Why not move Kelly back in left where he belongs? Not nearly as much pressure. He could provide the bat needed from that spot , especially if he wasn’t constantly trying to prove that he isn’t the liability that he is at 2nd. I think KJ is a big plus for the team, just not at 2nd.

By Ben

September 24, 2008 4:42 PM | Link to this

MGL, care to expound?

Is it going after CC? Year after year the guy has thrown tons of innings, so yes, at some point he may break down. But people have been predicting that for a while, and he still is bringing it. Normally I’m not for throwing $20M/yr at a pitcher, but he’s arguably worth it, especially because the days of expecting great things from Smoltz and taking it for granted are over.

Is it Sheets? Yes, there are serious concerns about his health. But maybe he’ll come at the right price. With some other pitchers on the market, at least there’s pretty good supply, which should drive his price down. Gotta find out what this elbow problem is though. My point was that we NEED to sign a #1 starter. Everyone will be after lower-risk Burnett, Lowe, and Perez; Garland is awfully over-rated (has less than 100 Ks each of last 2 seasons despite 32 starts in each, ERA of 4.7 or so, WHIP in the 1.40 range); and the rest are old guys. (Dempster isn’t, but he’ll return to the Cubs.)

Is it Burrell? Yes, he slowed down a lot over the past month or so, but he’s still ending with solid numbers. And by the way, his road stats obliterate his home stats this year (21 HR to 12; 964 to 767 OPS). And this team needs a right-handed power hitter as much as anything else.

Is it trading Frenchy? I don’t think I have to make an argument there. But I will. 284 ABs with runners on: 591 OPS. 173 ABs with RISP: 589 OPS. 32 ABS with bases loaded (what a huge number!): 369 OPS (just 5 hits). Enough is enough.

Is it having Anderson and Blanco in the same outfield? They’re not the same player: Anderson hits for average and can steal bases; Blanco is an on-base machine and isn’t afraid to steal either. True, neither has power, but putting them in the same lineup would only be temporary, until Schafer is ready. Besides, we’d have Burrell to pick up the slack that Francoeur couldn’t.

By RBG

September 24, 2008 4:47 PM | Link to this

If Soriano can come back strong and Gonzo as well as Peter Moylan we have a good 7th-9th innings.

Braves fan 79-I agree totally the Halladay would be the best possible option. He has 8 complete games this year which has taken a lot of stress out of the rotation. Without McGowan him and Burnett gave Toronto a nice run this last month .

By ncscoots

September 24, 2008 4:52 PM | Link to this

Shaun, I’m just messin’ with ya, man. No offense intended. And certainly no seriousness.

By Steve from OH

September 24, 2008 4:53 PM | Link to this

Pierre? Really? I think that Ned Colletti would win GM of the milennium if he managed to get Kelly or Yunel from us for Pierre.

By RBG

September 24, 2008 4:54 PM | Link to this

Ben-You cant trade Francoeur if for defense only. He is the only outfielder the Braves have right now that can keep hitters from extending singles to doubles. With Kotsay in center it wasnt too bad but when he got hurt and we moved Blanco to center and Norton to left everyone ran like crazy on them and we lost a bunch of games. Our outfield this year reminded me of the Giants outfield last year.

By nolie

September 24, 2008 4:54 PM | Link to this

All this talk of free agents is nice. But I say it’s going to take a big time offseason trade- think Hudson. I still think we could exploit the AAA Florida Marlins for a couple of their young armsBA

Hudson? What team do you think is going to accept an injured pitcher as part of a deal for an impact player? Hmmm.

By Billy

September 24, 2008 4:56 PM | Link to this

I’d be OK with keeping Johnson and Kotchman. Hampton? Not so much!

By nolie

September 24, 2008 4:57 PM | Link to this

BA

sorry accidentally hit the send button b4 I finished.

Or did you simply mean a deal on the magnitude of the Hudson deal?

By hydee

September 24, 2008 5:03 PM | Link to this

DOB Okay you never answer any of my Tavarez questions but I’ll try one more time-any chance the Braves try to keep him next year? I know the last two outings haven’t been stellar, but for the past couple of months I thought he had been doing a nice job for the Braves.

By RBG

September 24, 2008 5:05 PM | Link to this

Steve the only way they would trade Kelly for Pierre would be for the Dodgers to eat the contract. I mentioned Yunel “might” be traded but I probably should have mentioned that would have been part of my deal for Halladay.

Braves could probably get Pierre for free if they were to take Andruw as well….we ALL know he will be back in 2010 for a song .

By Lew

September 24, 2008 5:10 PM | Link to this

Ben-You are perhaps aware that Sheets left a game last week with “tightness” in his forearm? Dude, Isn’t that usually the first sign that ligament replacement surgery is in that person’s future? No way do we even think of Sheets this winter. We’ve already experienced way too many DL days with our pitchers. Why in the world do you want another injury riddled pitcher? Because he might be cheaper? How cheap does he have to be to make it worth his being on the DL? Free?

By Gwinnett Matt

September 24, 2008 5:15 PM | Link to this

The Braves need to add veteran depth to their pitching staff, right? I feel Hampton, injuries aside, is starting to look like he could offer this. A one year offer, I think, is essential.

The infield looks set and this last month has really increased my optimism. Kotchman is starting to come around and Kelly is tearing the cover off the ball. Yunel was starting to show signs of a hot streak before his shoulder injury, too. Chipper will be Chipper, so it is probably a good idea to keep an able back-up like Omar or Prado around.

I like the idea of keeping Norton, but it seems we will have to move one of Prado/Infante and Blanco/Anderson/Schafer. I just don’t know how all those guys can be on the same team playing relatively the same position.

And, naturally, we need a RH, power bat in LF and any consistent starting pitching we can get our hands on. I like Brandon Jones, but he will probably start next year in AAA if he isn’t moved this offseason.

By mbatl

September 24, 2008 5:17 PM | Link to this

A leftfielder with 1 HR, a .320 OBP, and a bad arm. Yes, Juan Pierre is just what the Braves need.

By Hoosier Aaron

September 24, 2008 5:20 PM | Link to this

I could never fill the shoes of DOB - but I’d like to go on the record and say “If Julian Tavarez is on our Opening Day roster - the Front Office hibernated over the winter.”

Seriously, he’s done a decent job at times. Hopefully, we can find a better option during the off season. I seriously hope we don’t pencil him in our plans for next year without exploring every other possible option.

By Lew

September 24, 2008 5:25 PM | Link to this

What in his career record makes anyone think that Sheets is even a bona fide #1 starter? This season is the first time he’s won more than 12 games (13). It’s the first year in the past five he’s started 30 games (barely as he may not pitch again this season). He has a decent career ERA and WHIP, but nothing there to indicate he has been or ever will be a #1 starter. The only thing that MAY indicate a possible #1 status is if someone is insane enough to offer him #1 money. No way on the face of the earth (for ANY price) should it be the Braves.

By Brian

September 24, 2008 5:25 PM | Link to this

Phillies vs. Reyes? OK, WE SURRENDER!!!!!!

By David O'Brien

September 24, 2008 5:26 PM | Link to this

CHIPPER SCRATCHED from lineup. Bobby had two lineups ready, and as soon as Chipper tested the shoulder with some throws before batting practice, he said no way he could play. Said it would probably be all he could do to muster a throw 90 feet.

He’s got an MRI scheduled for Tuesday, though the Braves medical people believe it’s just tendinitis or bursitis in there that will calm down with rest. But they’re gonna do the MRI Tuesday in case some surgery is needed, then he could go ahead and get it done and probably be ready for spring training.

But again, I should stress the Braves believe it’s not anything that would require surgery. Chipper said he’s concerned, though, because it hasn’t improved after nearly a week of not throwing. Said it also hurt some when he was hitting left-handed last night in the cage, whereas before it’s only hurt hitting right-handed.

By Steve from OH

September 24, 2008 5:26 PM | Link to this

Juan Pierre is statistically inferior to Gregor Blanco.

Juan Pierre makes, for all intents and purposes, a gagillion dollars more than Gregor Blanco.

Why do we want Juan Pierre?

As for Andruw? Has anyone forgotten why we dumped him in the first place? Quia non erat utilis—becuase he was not useful.

By jerry

September 24, 2008 5:28 PM | Link to this

The Braves need at least three additional starting pitchers for next season, unless they push some of their young arms, and that could make for another very long season, so Hampton should definitely be considered. I would give him a shot before Glavine. Right now they only have JJ & Campy, a #2/3 and a #4/5.

Don’t under estimate the Marlins when it comes time for the fire sale. They’ve gone through this at least twice already, and did well to get inexpensive young talent in return. Their scouts do a very good job identifying players.

By David O'Brien

September 24, 2008 5:32 PM | Link to this

hydee, Tavarez is the kind of reliever that bounces from team to team at this stage of his career. Braves might have some interest in him, but it’s not a high priority list, that’s for sure.

RBG: Juan Pierre? Juan Pierre for Yunel or Kelly? You’re serious, right?

By MGL

September 24, 2008 5:37 PM | Link to this

Ben,

I’m ok with CC Negative on Sheets,arm problems Burrell is problematic on D and bases Frenchy has more upside than Blanco/Anderson

By hydee

September 24, 2008 5:42 PM | Link to this

DOBThanks for finally answering me :) and yeah I’m well aware that Julian will not be heavily chased this offseason, but the man can still pitch, I just wanted to get your take on if the Braves’ experience with him was good enough that they might have some interest.

By McFann :Ô:

September 24, 2008 5:44 PM | Link to this

Erg…Thanks for the news on Chipper, Chief. That stinks. Hope he won’t need surgery!

Here’s to the Braves creaming Myers tonight! And note to BMac: Please get some good hits with RISP (2B or HR would be nice) so you don’t have to end your rather nice season in a trashy fashion.

By David O'Brien

September 24, 2008 5:46 PM | Link to this

Shaun, Steve from OH: With all due respect, the cases you made at 3:42 and 3:43 for Burrrell being as or more valuable than Howard, they don’t hold water with the vast majority of real-word baseball observers. You guys are really getting a bit too esoteric with stats for your own good. Fine for sabermetric discussions, but seriously, I don’t know of a single BBWAA member I’ve ever heard use VORP points and EqA either in discussions among ourselves, with players or scouts, or certainly not to convey any meaning to readers of anything other than Sabermetric-intensive websites.

You’re evaluating value in a whole different way than most of us crude observers, fellas. Most of simpletons, including writers, broadcasters, most fans, managers, coaches and players, aren’t looking at it like you are, if I may be so bold as to speak for those folks.

I mean, really: VORP point and EqA are supposed to convince me that one player who is worse or equal defensively to another, and whose average is nearly identical, and OPS nearly identicaly, but the one who has vastly inferior HR and RBI totals and a hugely inferior average with RISP, is more valuable than the cleanup hitter who leads the majors in homers and is approaching 150 RBI.

Sorry, we’re just on different wavelengths, guys. You’re not coming around to my thinking, and I can assure you I will never judge players on VORP and EqA when I know from watching said players, including the one who leads the majors in homers and go-ahead RBI, I know who’s more valuable. You might be on the fence, but I’m not. Not even close.

By D-Cider

September 24, 2008 5:49 PM | Link to this

K. Johnson can not play 2nd base. He is at the top or near the top in errors, cannot put himself in position to field the ball and has limited range. Plus, he is INCREDIBLY streaky…so..if these guys are all returning next year..the Braves can enjoy another winter at home.

By D-Cider

September 24, 2008 5:52 PM | Link to this

K. Johnson can not play 2nd base. He is at the top or near the top in errors, cannot put himself in position to field the ball and has limited range. Plus, he is INCREDIBLY streaky…so..if these guys are all returning next year..the Braves can enjoy another 4th place finish. BTW Cox thinks everybody is great

By Braveheart

September 24, 2008 5:58 PM | Link to this

As for Andruw? Has anyone forgotten why we dumped him in the first place? Quia non erat utilis—becuase he was not useful.

Not really true, Steve. They let him go b/c he wanted too much money - not because he was useless. He did, after all, hit more home runs last year than the whole outfield combined has hit this season.

And he gave ++ defense in center last year. Can’t claim that we got any + defense from any outfielder this year. Sad to say but Andruw’s woeful season last year for us was more valuable than we have received from any of the outfield slots this season. Sadly, that is the truth. Wish it wasn’t but it is.

And I know this will be twisted into me saying Andruw should still be here. That’s not what I am saying. He should not be here. This year he became totally useless. He rendered himself a joke. But let’s not make believe that the Braves were just so wise in knowing he was about to enter into a premature decline. They weren’t. They were just cheap and Andruw and Boras were too outrageous in their demands.

It was about money. Don’t claim it had anything to do with talent….. Andruw was a goner last year even if he hit 60 homers. That’s how useless the owners are. Luckily, this was one instance where the uselessness of an owner avoided the signing of a centerfielder who became useless.

By Lew

September 24, 2008 5:58 PM | Link to this

D-Cider- Dude, next time could you capitalize it all too?

By IVSPORT

September 24, 2008 5:58 PM | Link to this

It’s good to see Kotchman back in the game and doing well. And it will be even better when Kotchman’s having that .300-20-100 season and Big Tex is getting paid 20 million a year in either Anaheim or New York to hit .270-35-110. I’ll take Kotchman’s line for cheaper anyday.

By David O'Brien

September 24, 2008 6:01 PM | Link to this

Diaz activated from 60-day DL, available to come off bench tonight.

By mbatl

September 24, 2008 6:05 PM | Link to this

I’d keep an eye on Tampa, in the search for a young pitcher via trade. David Price showed in his MLB debut that he’s the real deal and will almost surely be in the rotation come next spring.

That gives them… Kazmir, Shields, Garza, Price, Sonnenstine and Jackson. All young, all talented. I’d expect Sonnenstine or Jackson to be available. Have no idea what Tampa might want or need for them, though.

By Tomas

September 24, 2008 6:09 PM | Link to this

Chipper is too injury prone. Good thing they have Prado and Infante. I’m guessing he wont be able to play more than 120 games next year, and with that in mind the Braves really need a bat. The top priority should be pitching though.

I would:

• Resign Hampton to a 1 yr deal worth 2 million with incentives.
• Give Smoltz, and Glavine a similar deal to Hampton’s if they prove they can pitch in spring training.
• Sign Burnett( 4yrs 65million), Dempster( 4yrs 60 million), and/or Derek Lowe( 2yrs 24 million)…2 of those 3.
• Solve the left field issue whether it be by trade or free agency. Some candidates are Pat Burrel, Adam Dunn, Bobby Abreu, Magglio Ordoñez, Matt Holliday, and Aubrey Huff.
• Resign Ohman to 3yr deal worth 9 million.

I really don’t like the idea of giving Heyward, Hanson, Morton, Kelly, Frenchy, Escobar, Prado, and Gorkys Hernandez.

Brandon Jones, Matt Diaz, Chuck James, Josh Anderson/Schaefer or Blanco, Boyer, and Jo-jo Reyes can be traded.

By McFann :Ô:

September 24, 2008 6:15 PM | Link to this

Diaz activated from 60-day DL, available to come off bench tonight.

Cool.

In my last post, did I say “trashy”? I meant “crummy”.

By wg

September 24, 2008 6:17 PM | Link to this

D-Cider You’re an idiot. 2 years at a position is not enough time to be a gold glover. As of right now, the Braves need all the bats they can get and KJ has always swung a good bat. He needs to be down in the 6 or 7 hole to be most effective.

Also, DOB, what are the chances of the Braves offering JS, TG, and MH all incentive loaded contracts? I would think the best bet would be MH and JS but at least get them into spring training and see what shakes out.

And is Smoltz thinking of coming back as a reliever or starter? I don’t think he could close on this team next year.

By Steve from OH

September 24, 2008 6:18 PM | Link to this

VORP and EqA don’t take defense into account DOB….and I wasn’t trying to say Burrell was better, in fact, I said that I was giving an edge to Howard.

Like I said earlier, Howard is 30 points below Burrell in OBP and 30 points ahead of Burrell in SLG. The edge probably goes to Burrell here because OBP is more important than SLG, but again, I did say that I valued Howard’s defense over Burrell’s. I guess my main point was to show that Burrell isn’t as far off as you suggested, that’s all. Wasn’t in any way trying to say that one was definitively better than the other.

And that stuff about watching the game, scouting, etc. is all fine and dandy. When I’m talking to people I know (live, not on this forum), I don’t use VORP or EqA either—most discussions don’t call for in-depth analysis like that. Usually OBP and SLG do quite fine. However, can you say definitively that front offices don’t use sabermetric statistics like those? I’m interested to hear the answer, because I’d love to know how Frank Wren and the gang evaluate player performance. But don’t dismiss them becuase they’re too “esoteric,” becuase (while that may be true, to a degree), they are still very valuable means of analyzing player perfomance. EqA is the best stat I’ve come across, IMO, becuase it factors in OBP, SLG, SB, CS, etc. into one neat package. Plus it correlates better with run scoring than OPS, which is a plus for me.

Of course, I could say the same thing to you about RBI as you did to me about EqA.

As for the BBWAA thing, well, the Tampa Chapter of the BBWAA just voted Jason Bartlett as MVP of the Rays, if that tells you anything. Not saying that all BBWAA members are idiots, and certainly not you (I sincerely respect your opinions, and I think you’re a fine writer and baseball-guy, for what it’s worth), but let’s just say that some of them certainly aren’t up to speed on modern methods of player evaluation.

Just to be clear: I don’t think Burrell is better than Howard. I don’t agree with you that EqA has no value, but I can also see your point about scouts, coaches, etc. It’s proper for some places and not for others. But seriously, EqA is a good stat.

By D-Cider

September 24, 2008 6:18 PM | Link to this

Lew, sorry i got all stirred up. DOB:I thought Billy Beane used sabermetrics and Bill James is still working for the Red Sox

By Wayne

September 24, 2008 6:22 PM | Link to this

mbatl Excellent point on the Rays and having some excess pitching. Sonnanstine will come more cheaply, but the guy I would make a play for is Shields. BUT, you bring up a good question: What do they need, that we have and can afford to give up?

Unless we are giving up top prospects, we are down to Kotchman, KJ and Escobar and maybe, Frenchy.

I would rather see us go for 2-3 long shots for the rotation (Sonnanstine might be one) and keep our prospects.

Some other possible names: Harang (buy cheap?), Olsen with the Fish, McGowan, Rich Hill of the Cubs, Laffey, Slowey, Snell (again, trying to buy cheap).

Whaddya think?

BTW, I have had shoulder impingement issues. Even the cortisone shots don’t get rid of the pain and discomfort. I couldn’t throw a baseball over 20 feet when I had my problems.

By N Nine

September 24, 2008 6:23 PM | Link to this

That chipper injury update doesn’t sound so good.

Be nice to see diaz get a few AB’s

By JerseyGil

September 24, 2008 6:24 PM | Link to this

Hey DOB did you have to evacuated the Stadium?…Bomb Scare at Citizen Ball Park..some one with the Black humor leave a whole bunch of Hot Dog wrapper in foil and tape around the stadium. i guess the phillis not want to face Kelly tonight.

By Steve from OH

September 24, 2008 6:26 PM | Link to this

Braveheart, that’s true. I can agree with that…but it wasn’t a stretch to say after last season that he was in line for another bad season this year, was it? I mean, just watching him hit you could tell that his approach at the plate wasn’t good and that he had gained quite a few pounds. But I’ll stick by my original statement mostly becuase he was the low point in the lineup last season…that lineup with a pre-07 AJ makes the playoffs, or comes very close, IMO.

He is certainly useless this season.

By sportsnut44

September 24, 2008 6:27 PM | Link to this

Check out what’s going on at

http://www.total-e-sports.blogspot.com

By Wayne

September 24, 2008 6:29 PM | Link to this

Tomas Lets get an outfielder that can catch the ball.

MVP That stands for Most Valuable Player, as in most valuable to the overall efforts of his team, compared to all others in the league. It is not “Player of the Year”, which could mean the player with the best stats.

So, Bartlett might very well be the most valuable member of the Rays.

How’s this choice for NL MVP: Mark DeRosa. Google stat that one guys!

:-)

By Steve from OH

September 24, 2008 6:35 PM | Link to this

But Wayne, how is a player that contributes the most runs (or best pitching) to his team not the most valuable?

By sean!

September 24, 2008 6:38 PM | Link to this

KJ has been great… iam pretty sure he will have more consistent season next year, if the braves were to trade there infielder it should be infante or escobar… i no they are good defensively and all.. but prado has been jus ridiculous and proved to us for past 3 years that he can hit…. now would bobby put him as a starter for christ sake…. can we jus have schaffer at center field>? man i loved josh anderson, he cannot hit an inside pitch for his life…. good lord someone help him out!

By Shaun

September 24, 2008 6:40 PM | Link to this

DOB, first of all, neither of us are saying Burrell is just as or more valuable than Howard, I don’t think. We are saying you can make the argument that they are close in value. In other words, Howard is likely not the Phillies most valuable player and it may not be close.

Second, VORP and EqA, etc. are pretty complex and take lots of factors into account. A lot more factors than just how many homers a player hits or how many runs he drives in (which of course is highly dependent on the lineup the player is in and things like that). A lot smarter people in many ways than me or you or, I would venture to say, most of the people on this blog or lots of members of the BBWAA or players or coaches or scouts.

Whether we like it or not, these are the metrics many or most of the wisest front offices in the game use. They would never get far if they were relying just on things like HR or go-ahead RBI.

I would just humbly suggest you do some research on things like VORP or EqA. If you did, maybe you would be much more willing to accept the usefulness of those metrics in determining player value.

But unfortunately so many (not necessarily you, DOB) are unwilling to keep an open mind about such statistics, and actually do some serious digging about them and try to find out whether or not there is value in them. Instead of just bashing them as esoteric and something that only sabermetric types care about, why not look in see if they have value?

Just because HR and RBI are the way the BBWAA has always done their evaluations doesn’t necessarily mean it’s the best way to determine value.

May I suggest the book Baseball Between the Numbers. It gives an excellent overview of some of the advanced stats that many teams are relying on these days and it’s a very easy, common sense read. In other words, you don’t need an advanced math degree nor try to understand complex theories or anything. Listen, I’m certainly no math geek and I would certainly describe myself as a simpleton. But I can reject the common sense of stats like VORP or EqA. And I would guess many of you would feel the same way with a little research and open-mindedness about such stats.

By sean!

September 24, 2008 6:42 PM | Link to this

you no what i think braves should trade escobar or infante…. they proved to us how good defensively they are but.. look at prado he has proved to us past 3 years that he can hit … now will bobby make him a starter for christ sake…. Can schaffer jus play center field.. i loved josh anderson at first but now the pitchers just throw him inside pitch and man he cant hit that for his life…..

By Braveheart

September 24, 2008 6:45 PM | Link to this

Braveheart, that’s true. I can agree with that…but it wasn’t a stretch to say after last season that he was in line for another bad season this year, was it? I mean, just watching him hit you could tell that his approach at the plate wasn’t good and that he had gained quite a few pounds. But I’ll stick by my original statement mostly becuase he was the low point in the lineup last season

Steve, your original statement was that they got rid of Andruw because he was useless. You can’t really stick to that statement because it’s not true. The Braves had decided before last season that they weren’t going to sign him because they were too stingy …. thus, they had no idea he was about to become useless when they decided to let him go. So what he did last season was never a factor in whether or not they were gonna sign him. Andruw was a goner regardless of what he did. Luckily, they benefitted from their stinginess and Andruw’s greediness. You can wrongly claim they were Nostradamus with Andruw but they were really just No-Money-Us and that’s why he’s no longer here.

By Shaun

September 24, 2008 6:48 PM | Link to this

Wayne, if you have the right stats, it would seem you could know who is most valuable to the overall efforts of his team compared to others in the league.

I think Pujols is the most valuable to the overall efforts of his team compared to others in the NL. He gets on base second-most often, he has the highest slugging, he’s a decent baserunner compared to a lot of other players who get on base and slug as well and he plays great defense. He shouldn’t be punished for the performance of his team’s front office or the performance of the players on his team, in my opinion. MVP is an individual award.

By JC from UT

September 24, 2008 6:49 PM | Link to this

As far as backup catcher for next season(I know it was a few blogs ago) how about Miguel Olivo? He isn’t great but can hit a bit and would be better than what we have right now.

By Brian

September 24, 2008 6:51 PM | Link to this

Steve- Is this a physics/astrology class or Braves blog? Man, I’m having trouble in a simple math class so…you know. But I know who to ask for a math question if I have one.

By JC from UT

September 24, 2008 6:52 PM | Link to this

If Frank Wren decides to use Escobar to get pitching would he turn around and sign Orlando Cabrerra to play SS?

By Braveheart

September 24, 2008 6:54 PM | Link to this

KJ has been great… iam pretty sure he will have more consistent season next year, if the braves were to trade there infielder it should be infante or escobar… i no they are good defensively and all.. but prado has been jus ridiculous and proved to us for past 3 years that he can hit…. now would bobby put him as a starter for christ sake

Sean, KJ is decent, not great. Escobar is the best one in the middle infield. Where is Bobby gonna start prado if KJ is great according to you? Have you thought that one over? Evidently not.

I don’t see why you would trade infante or prado b/c no one is gonna give you much of anything for the two of them. Just leave our middle infield as is. It can see it being similiar to the DeRosa, Theriot, Fontenot and Cedeno combo the Cubs have had this year.

By Steve from OH

September 24, 2008 6:58 PM | Link to this

Braveheart, can you know for certain, I mean be absolutely certain that the front office had decided this before the season? I mean, they offered a contract to Teixeira before this season, so is it not unreasonable to suggest that had Andruw been great last season that they wouldn’t have traded for Tex and maybe made him an offer?

I agree with you that a large reason that he’s not here is the money issue. But he didn’t make it any more difficult on them by stinking up the joint last season. Maybe I made a bit of an overstatement. That’s fine. But he definitely wasn’t very useful last season. That’s all I’m saying.

By sean!

September 24, 2008 6:58 PM | Link to this

lol… yea my god corky miller was worse batter then 60 year old man with a broken arm… but i dont think backup catcher is anywhere near on the priority list

By Wayne

September 24, 2008 7:03 PM | Link to this

Steve/Shaun: According to some statements you guys are making, there should really be no vote for MVP at all. Just program it, run the numbers, and make the announcement.

We have heard for years about how Derek Jeter is the MVP of the Yankees, but he pales in comparison to A-Rod’s numbers.

Just gotta believe it is not necessarily all about the numbers. If it were, they would call it something different, like “Player of the Year”.

Not trying to be argumentative, but just running the numbers doesn’t cut it.

By Shaun

September 24, 2008 7:05 PM | Link to this

That last part of the last post should read, “Listen, I’m certainly no math geek and I would certainly describe myself as a simpleton. But I can’t reject the common sense of stats like VORP or EqA. And I would guess many of you would feel the same way with a little research and open-mindedness about such stats.”

By sean!

September 24, 2008 7:05 PM | Link to this

i am 100% sure prado can play shortstop….. i never said we should trade prado….. trading we have 2 utility players and i dont think this is really necessary … but i dont really have problem with our infielders

By David O'Brien

September 24, 2008 7:09 PM | Link to this

Shaun, thanks for the suggestions. I’ll not be spending time I don’t have following them. And don’t condescend by saying me or others only use HR and go-ahead RBI.

Wrap your brain around all the VORP points you want to, but I don’t think that using average, OBP, slugging, hitting with RISP, OPS and runs generated are at all crude. You just want everyone to jump on board the stat-geek bandwagon, and it ain’t happening, mercifully.

Anyone whose stats tell them that Pat Burrell has been as valuable to the Phillies this year as Ryan Howard has, well, that person is relying too much on arcane stats, in my opinion. Because Pat Burrell has not been as valuable to the Phillies as Ryan Howard.

Agree to disagree. No biggie. Just don’t expect me to start writing stories that mention VORP points and EqA anytime soon. I write for a newspaper, not a sabermetric journal.

By Shaun

September 24, 2008 7:12 PM | Link to this

Wayne, the right numbers mostly do cut it. But you are right that the numbers don’t completely cut it. You also have to take into account things like playing time, position, context, etc.

By BossLady

September 24, 2008 7:14 PM | Link to this

Is the game televised?

By sean!

September 24, 2008 7:19 PM | Link to this

yup the game is on sportssouth

By Wayne

September 24, 2008 7:21 PM | Link to this

Nice to get two early, but as has happened so many times this season, we DP ourselves right out of a bigger inning.

I was looking at the stats for the Milwaukee Brewers and the Arizona Diamonbacks. Boy do those guys strike out a lot!

By Wayne

September 24, 2008 7:24 PM | Link to this

Would somebody tell the Braves announcers we are tired of hearing about the teams’ 11 straight losses in JoJo’s starts. As I mentioned in an earlier blog, it is not all JoJo’s fault. Of course, he has sucked lately, but he doesn’t deserve the negative press he is getting. Again, mindless, meaningless stats.

By Deep Throat

September 24, 2008 7:25 PM | Link to this

Where is Bobby gonna start prado

…….who cares?

By David O'Brien

September 24, 2008 7:26 PM | Link to this

OK, this little debate just sparked a pressbox discussion. I asked the Philadelphia Inquirer beat writer, without giving him any idea whatsoever what I was doing it for, where he’d rank Howard in the NL MVP voting. He said, “Gotta be in the top three, don’t you think?” (I told him, top three or at least top five).

Then I asked him, again without any slant to the question, how he’d rate the Phillies for MVP of the team.

He said, without hesitation, Howard, then probably Lidge over Utley, because Utley had slipped so much in the second half.

Then I asked him, when it was apparent he wasn’t going to go any further with his ratings, where he’d put Burrell, he said, “He’d be about eighth on my list.”

Dismiss that conversation, cite your own statistical know-how, whatever, just sharing it with you. The view of a longtime Phillies beat writer and a BBWAA voter (though he’s not voting for MVP this year).

By the way, when I then shared with him why I was asking, because a couple of sabermetric-intensive guys on my blog were saying you could make a compelling case for Burrell being as valuable as Ryan Howard, the guy, I swear, looked at me like he was waiting for the punchline. He was incredulous when I told him it was serious, that they really believed, or at least tried to present a case for that argument.

Anyway, it was an interesting sidebar as the game was being played.

By kirknga

September 24, 2008 7:27 PM | Link to this

People should not be surprised to see Smoltz, Glavine, and Hampton back with the Braves next season. CC Sabathia will not only fetch a handsome salary, but other free agent starters will ride his coattails down market.

So what we now expect to be a $14-15 million/year 2nd tier guy is going to ask for $16-18 million/year. This will lead to the remaining mediocre starters (some with injury histories) commanding $12-14 million.

At that point, Smoltz,Hampton and Glavine will make more sense than it may seem right now. The Braves will acquire a new starter, either free agent or by trade, but unless Smoltz’s shoulder, or Glavine’s elbow doesn’t come through, look for all three to return along with JJ.

I know people don’t like Hampton,if healthy, he’s a good #3 for a rotation.

By Shaun

September 24, 2008 7:27 PM | Link to this

DOB, I’m certainly not asking people to “jump on board the stat-geek bandwagon.” I’m just asking people to keep an open mind about these stats. But if folks want to reject them without looking into them, that’s their prerogative. I’d just like more people that consider themselves baseball fans and who cover baseball for major media outlets to at least look into metrics that many front offices use and judge for themselves whether or not they are useful. But it seems many folks are just willing to reject them without even attempting to understand them. That’s pretty scary to me. These are the people voting in American elections and possibly running companies we work for and possibly teaching our children. Yet these baseball fans refuse to simply find out about the tools that many of the most successful front offices in the game use.

I certainly wasn’t trying to be condescending and I apologize if I came across that way. I can certainly understand that OPS, etc. are often good enough to give us a great idea about player value. But, again, I just don’t get why baseball fans and media people would refuse to look into metrics and ideas that have shaped the game, like it or not.

Again, I don’t consider myself some brilliant mathematician. I just love baseball and love common sense. And when I looked into certain baseball metrics and ideas, it is impossible for me to refuse the common sense of these metrics and ideas. Maybe if folks would look into them, they would feel the same way. But we’ll never know with some folks because it seems they are simply going to refuse, no matter what.

Also, again, I don’t think anyone said that Burrell is just as valuable as Howard. Again, we simply said that you could make an argument that they are close in value. And I think the point was that Howard is probably not the Phillies most valuable player. No offense intended. We know you are not the one who implied that he was.

By Brian

September 24, 2008 7:29 PM | Link to this

Even with a guy like Dunn or whatever power bat they get, I think the Braves will be in the middle next year as far as power #s go. Now if your talking VORP,EqA,OBP,SLUG%,RISP,STD’S,GED’S,SAT’S,WIDTH Of Chipper’s HR bat the last 5 years, that’s another story!

By Steve from OH

September 24, 2008 7:36 PM | Link to this

Wrap your brain around all the VORP points you want to, but I don’t think that using average, OBP, slugging, hitting with RISP, OPS and runs generated are at all crude.

Average is crude. The rest aren’t. No one’s (at least not me) saying your analysis was crude. Like I said before, under most circumstances OBP, SLG, etc. are just fine. But EqA and VORP aren’t just some made-up “stat geek” jargon. They’re very good measures of performance. And, of course, I can understand why you wouldn’t put it in a newspaper, becuase most casual fans wouldn’t understand it. That’s fine. But in my humble opinion, baseball people should at least have an understanding of what it means. But hey, like you said, agree to disagree. No biggie. I mean, you obviously know what you’re talking about so there is no ill will or condescension (by any means) coming from my end. Like I’ve said before, I enjoy your blogs/other stories and respect your opinion.

But could you seriously answer my question from before about front offices? I’m really curious to see how FW does things up there.

Brian: I suck at math. The only reason I use those stats is that they do the calculation for me, lol. All it takes is a little interpretation of what the statistic is telling you.

Wayne, could you please answer my question from before? I’m interested to see your logic. Like Shaun said, it’s not all about the numbers. But they are a large part of the equation. Remember, statistics are a measure of performance.

By Wayne

September 24, 2008 7:39 PM | Link to this

Wow, JoJo is pitching a perfect game after one!

By Shaun

September 24, 2008 7:42 PM | Link to this

DOB, not sure what Phillies team that guy is watching. Utley has an over .040 point edge in on-base/out-avoidance and they have virtually identical slugging percentages. And I don’t think that guy would say Howard is a better fielder or baserunner than Utley.

Like some BBWAA members, maybe this man votes on the award based on hype instead of value.

By Brian

September 24, 2008 7:43 PM | Link to this

Wonder if they’ll have a Kelly Johnson bobble hands- oops, I meant bobble head night?

By Tomas

September 24, 2008 7:44 PM | Link to this

another error. 6 of kelly’s 14 errors have come against the phillies.

By TNJeff

September 24, 2008 7:48 PM | Link to this

Cox thinks KJ is doing good defensively!

Johnson makes more game costing errors - put him back in left field.

I’m tired of hearing the Braves announcers commenting on how much improved his defensive game is only for him to make another stupid error.

By David O'Brien

September 24, 2008 7:50 PM | Link to this

A New York writer is here, just told me that Mets manager Jerry Manuel won’t use Santana on Saturday because he threw 128 pitches last night. So his options for that crucial game: Jon Niese, Nelson Figueroa and Brandon Knight.

Ouch.

Santana would start Sunday. Of course, that might be too late.

By McFann :Ô:

September 24, 2008 7:53 PM | Link to this

Hey! There’s double #40!! Whoo-hoo!

Snitker! Prado’s been having leg trouble! Why’d you send him, dangit!

By Shaun's Shrink

September 24, 2008 7:54 PM | Link to this

Shaun….consider possibilities beyond the mathematical…yes…it’s coming to you…hint….it’s not tangible…it is….you guessed it…THE INTANGIBLES!

By David O'Brien

September 24, 2008 7:54 PM | Link to this

DOB, not sure what Phillies team that guy is watching. Utley has an over .040 point edge in on-base/out-avoidance and they have virtually identical slugging percentages.Shaun

Oh, boy.

By mbatl

September 24, 2008 7:54 PM | Link to this

Like some BBWAA members, maybe this man votes on the award based on hype instead of value.

… or on watching the Phillies play 162 games per year.

Shaun, quick question (and I don’t know if you can calculate it or not):

2 players, same position, same park, same everything. Each bat twice.

One walks both plate appearances. The other hits a single each time up.

That’s it… that’s the season.

Can you tell me what their EqA would be?

I’m curious because I read that EqA counts walks and HBP as “1.5” and would probably value the 2 walks higher than the 2 singles. But maybe I’m misunderstanding.

By ernisTbass

September 24, 2008 7:55 PM | Link to this

On back to back plays KJ just proved my point that he is destined for left field. That excellent snow cone catch, as a good outfielder should make, followed by a routine grounder (for an accomplished infielder) that he bobbled for his 14th error. They don’t count the balls that should be DP’s that turn in to one out plays due to his ineffeciency. That play will affect him in the field and at the plate for the rest of the night. Take the pressure off, put him in left.

By Original Jon

September 24, 2008 8:00 PM | Link to this

HAHAHA, Shaun you just got burned by a Phillies beat writer and you are still talking BS stats that no one cares about, well, no one but you. But geez man, give it up. No one cares but you. If you ask any smart minded person who they think is more valuable, they would say Howard without hesitation, they wouldnt go and look up dumb stats like out avoidance and stupid BS like that, they would go by what they know and see.

By McFann :Ô:

September 24, 2008 8:01 PM | Link to this

Wow…They’re leading by two! Cann Ho-Ho hold ‘em?

……Please?

By Curtis

September 24, 2008 8:01 PM | Link to this

1. Trade Corky Miller to a good Sunday slow-pitch softball team. You should get a case of Powerade out of this deal.

2. Put Kelly Johnson back in left field. He is not, repeat not, a major league second baseman. No way, no how, no kidding. Not now, not ever. Watching him on TV doesn’t even begin to show the whole story. His range is poor, his instincts are horrible. To his credit Schuerholz built a dynasty with good pitching, and solid defense up the middle. Find a 2B with a glove and some speed. This year’s Braves couldn’t swipe a credit card.

3. Trade Frenchy to KC. The GM loves him, and it’s obvious to anyone who has watched him this year he’s not a championship-caliber player. Those are the guys who produce with men on base and the game on the line….when games count. KC’s gotta have some decent talent. Somewhere. Don’t they?

4. Forget about Glavine. Does anyone really want to see him struggle through another year, praying that a generous umpire will give his 75-mph fastball a strike call 9 inches off the plate?

5. Forget Gotay, Blanco, Infante, Tavares, Nunez, Diaz, Bennett, Carlyle, and Acosta. Sure, they all have their good points. But basically they’re journeymen who are either on the downside of modest major league careers, or have shown that they don’t have what it takes to be impact players on a championship-caliber team.

6. If Smoltz is back, it’s as an 8th or 9th inning reliever. Only.

7. Lose Hampton. Yes, he’s had some quality starts, but again….if you’re trying to rebuild a championship-caliber team…he has no business on it. Can anyone picture him starting Game 3 of the World Series?

8. Assuming the Braves add a power bat for one or two of the outfield positions, find a way to get Prado in the lineup 150 times a year. He can hit. With the likelihood of injuries to people like Chipper, Yunel and even an outfielder, Prado can play. Every day. He’s versatile, and as an everyday player could hit .300 with 40 doubles.

9. Get a freakin’ actual backup catcher. Several teams have # 3 catchers who would have out-produced the pitiful

   2 guys for the Braves this year. The Braves are making McCann an old man, long before his time, playing him 8-10 games in a row during some stretches.

10. Teach Jorge Campillo a couple of new pitches. Yep, he’s got one great pitch, but as the season wore on, some teams figured that out. (And how old is he, really? 29? Come on)

A lot of folks on this blog sure are determined to keep a lot of the current roster intact. No problem….if you want to be a perennial 4th place team. If you want the return of a championship-caliber team, DRASTIC moves must be made. And since the current manager and coaching staff are being retained (even though their expiration date was 2005), it’s gotta be the players.

By cooper

September 24, 2008 8:01 PM | Link to this

Cox and rational and or balanced comments on players is as rare as the last Dodo.

KJ hasn’t ever been great he has been serviceable at 2b with streaks of very good hitting. I pray Wren does not wear Bobby’s player beer goggles when he builds his team for 2009.

KJ is a great kid who is having a career month that is it.

He is not a top three replacement candidate for the Braves but if Wren comes up snake eyes in the OF we could see Orlando Hudson at 2B. You can’t always improve your team they way you want but you MUST improve your team where you can.

And boy Snitcker what a keeper. How many times have we see him windmill in a guy turning from 2B only to see him easily tagged at home?

Does he have depth perception problems, not know the players speed or just doesn’t read the scouting reports on the opposing OFs?

Sorry for the kicking the dog comments but can we have two games in a row where KJ doesn’t make run inducing error and a coach does botch something?

Oh wait the 2008 season is not over yet. Never mind.

By Chuck James is solid until the 6th!! (Formerly Steve-O)

September 24, 2008 8:03 PM | Link to this

Wrap your brain around all the VORP points you want to, but I don’t think that using average, OBP, slugging, hitting with RISP, OPS and runs generated are at all crude. You just want everyone to jump on board the stat-geek bandwagon, and it ain’t happening, mercifully.

Ha

By Shaun

September 24, 2008 8:06 PM | Link to this

mbatl, per Baseball Prospectus:

EqA is derived from Raw EqA, which is (H + TB + 1.5(BB + HBP + SB) + SH + SF) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF + CS + SB)*

Regarding the Philly writer, seriously, how could someone who watches the Phillies every game, I assume, not realize that Howard makes outs more often than Chase Utley, that Utley leads the team in times on base, and that they have a virtually identical number of total bases? Not to mention defense and baserunning. Not trying to be rude, but I just would like to know. Is he watching the 2008 Phillies?

By Tomas

September 24, 2008 8:06 PM | Link to this

9 hits in 3 innings and only three runs. The phillies have three hits and two runs. The reason is 7 of those 9 hits are singles, and the other two are doubles.

By McFann :Ô:

September 24, 2008 8:08 PM | Link to this

Prado almost hurt Coste on that play…thankfully Chris is OK.

Hey, but it would be 4-2 if Snitker hadn’t sent Nitram. Hopefully that won’t come back to bite them…

By Steve from OH

September 24, 2008 8:08 PM | Link to this

mbatl, the RawEqA of the two singles would be higher, by my crude hand calculation (singles=2, walks=1.25). I’ll let Shaun take the rest, becuase he knows more about it than I do, but that’s what I’ve got.

By Lew

September 24, 2008 8:11 PM | Link to this

Not only may Santana’s Sunday start be too late, but suppose the Mets DID make the playoffs-Pitching Santana on Saturday would make him ready to go in the Division Series a day earlier, as well. It’s crunch time-plenty of time to rest when it’s all over. For $20 mil per, he can throw a few more pitches. Isn’t that why they got him?

By richbrave

September 24, 2008 8:12 PM | Link to this

JoJO the dog-faced boy and his HR carnival side-show act strikes again. UTLEY. #33. No lead is safe past the first inning.

By Braveheart

September 24, 2008 8:12 PM | Link to this

Braveheart, can you know for certain, I mean be absolutely certain that the front office had decided this before the season? I mean, they offered a contract to Teixeira before this season, so is it not unreasonable to suggest that had Andruw been great last season that they wouldn’t have traded for Tex and maybe made him an offer?

Steve, come on, man. They were never gonna pay him the $$$$$ he deserved on the free agency market if he had a good season ….. They haven’t been willing to give that to Tex, Maddux, Glavine. Drew, Sheffield, Furcal, Chipper. Hudson, Smoltz, et al. …… they’ve already made it clear through DOB that they won’t even compete for Sabathia

So, yeah I can say with absolute certainty that they never had any intention of keeping Andruw ….. and that reason had little to do with talent and everything to do with money. They just got lucky that he made them look smart when he sucked. But they weren’t really smart ….. just lucky. Andruw could have set the world on fire last year and they wouldn’t have signed him.

By David O'Brien

September 24, 2008 8:13 PM | Link to this

Oh, my. Crushed.

By NCBravesFan

September 24, 2008 8:14 PM | Link to this

It’s been a nice renaissance for Hampton, and I’m glad that all the work and frustration he must have felt the past few years have finally paid off for him.

My guess is he fits best on a team that would look to him to be a #4 starter and would have other options in case he broke down again.

That team could be the Braves if they add enough starting pitching, and Hampton hasn’t been scooped up by someone else in the meantime.

But I wouldn’t re-sign Hampton with thoughts that he’s going to slot as a #2 next year. Too much downside risk.

By Chuck James is solid until the 6th!! (Formerly Steve-O)

September 24, 2008 8:18 PM | Link to this

According to my precise and detailed calculations, (pushes glasses tighter against face with pointer finger)when you take into consideration all scientific and mathematical data I have strategiclly gathered over the last 7 hours, along with other geometric factors and analyze WOYT and FVROP statistical numerics, Matt Diaz has clearly displayed he is a more valuable asset to the organization then Abraham Corky Miller. However, if you calculate SwOOIq and subtract OPS and add intentional walks into the mix and multiply them against Pie (3.14), we are dealing with a whole ‘nother animal.

By Tomas

September 24, 2008 8:19 PM | Link to this

Guess who tied the game. Mr. Howard, he will get some serios mvp consideration, as well as Delgado for the Mets who just hit a grand slam against the Zambrano.

By McFann :Ô:

September 24, 2008 8:19 PM | Link to this

Brilliant, Snitker! We should be winning 4-3, but no!

Well, OK, Ho-Ho didn’t hold up his end of the bargain too well, either, but really, we should have more runs than three.

By Tom

September 24, 2008 8:20 PM | Link to this

Shaun—I’d like to commend you for your position with respect to Pat Burrell. Not sure if you’ll even read my post, since it’s a rarity that I actually post here.

I wanted to throw one more stat into the box here. It’s undoubtedly too esoteric for Mr. O’Brien, but if you want to talk about value to team, here’s a stat that factors in his home run totals and his game-winning RBI totals.

Win Probability Added is a stat that measures the win expectancy at any point in the game, based on matrices of the thousands of games played in the last few decades. So a team leading 4-2 with two outs and no one on in the bottom of the sixth has some given percent chance to win. That number is recalculated after each play (and accompanying situation change), and the change in win expectancy after each play is credited to the hitter and the pitcher. Since baseball is a zero-sum game (i.e., as good as that home run was for your team, it was equally as bad for the other team), one player gets a negative credit and one a positive credit.

This way, higher leverage situations get more weight, and you have an insanely accurate measure of exactly how much a player has been worth to his team. Not just “did he hit home runs?” but “when did he hit them?”. I don’t see how you could possibly come up with a more accurate measure of past performance than this. It takes into account EVERY SINGLE PLAY in which the hitter was involved (on offense only, for the record), and takes into account just how important that play was in terms of the game’s outcome.

So here’s a pretty straightforward stat that simultaneously has pretty obvious value in terms of what it measures. Mr. O’Brien (and his fellow writer from Philly) will probably be stunned to learn that Pat Burrell leads Phillies hitters by a large margin. In fact, Burrell’s score is nearly double Ryan Howard’s. Even Jayson Werth (as you mentioned, Shaun) ranks ahead of Ryan Howard, albeit by only the smallest of margins. Brad Lidge actually ranks as the Phillies’ most valuable player.

Look, people have limited memories, and they tend to remember the guys who had a flair for the dramatic (i.e., big second halves, lots of GW hits) instead of the guys who do the dirty work in the all-important first inning or who carry the team through April and May.

The fact is that this stat removes the imperfection of the memory. It doesn’t forget even one play, and it adds up the whole season to create a remarkably accurate picture of a player’s value to his team.

These stats can be found at fangraphs.com for anyone who may be interested.

By David O'Brien

September 24, 2008 8:20 PM | Link to this

So, have we seen the last start by Jo-Jo Reyes in a Braves uniform? I don’t know. In his pregame show, Bobby Cox said they wouldn’t give up on him.

Since they can’t get anything in a trade for him at this point, I’m pretty sure he’ll start out at Triple-A next year.

By RBG

September 24, 2008 8:22 PM | Link to this

DOB-I said maybe trade for Peirre and I also said we may need to trade Yunel and or Kelly. I would not trade Yunel for Peirre under any circumstance as we can get him for a song. I was thinking in a trade to get Halladay but that didnt translate too well.

By kirknga

September 24, 2008 8:22 PM | Link to this

Well JoJo is making the case further for why we’ll see Smoltz, Glavine, and Hampton in the rotation, if healthy, next season.

By Steve from OH

September 24, 2008 8:23 PM | Link to this

Braveheart, ya didn’t read my other paragraph, did ya?

By StingerSplash

September 24, 2008 8:23 PM | Link to this

Was that the last we’ll see of JoJo in a Braves uni (if there is a God, yes)? This whole Burrell-Howard thing. I mean, come on, who would you rather have? Who, when stands in the box, strikes more fear into opposing pitchers? (psst … a hint … he hits lefty ….)

By richbrave

September 24, 2008 8:24 PM | Link to this

Hey DAVE:

Not surprising that there’s not much love for KOTCHMAN from the PHILLIES announcers. Quote, “He’s not that good a hitter.” As in, how could MYERS allow this dweabe a hit? This after KOTCHMAN’s hit plates a run in the second. I’m feeling good about KOTCHMAN’s play of later, but that’s comparative with his start with the BRAVES. I’m not sold on his being the long-term solution at 1st. Need to see a little more to make me forget TEIXEIRA. At this point, ADAM LaROCHE is still in my memory.

By Tomas

September 24, 2008 8:24 PM | Link to this

If the Braves plan to use Reyes next year they’re dead. Anybody but him please. I really hope they resign Hampton, and add two more quality starters.

By Chuck James is solid until the 6th!! (Formerly Steve-O)

September 24, 2008 8:26 PM | Link to this

McFann you got your desired Two-Bagger…

40!!

By David O'Brien

September 24, 2008 8:27 PM | Link to this

This is the EIGHTH time in his last 11 starts that Jo-Jo has pitched 4-1/3 or fewer innings

By DirtyDawg

September 24, 2008 8:31 PM | Link to this

I’d like to see Hampton back for the right price. Don’t know if he’d propose/accept a discount given all the Braves have paid him for basically nothing, but I think he’ll be a winner next year somewhere.

As much as I’d love to see Johnson’s bat in next years everyday lineup, the Braves have got to find a position for him. He hasn’t shown improvement at second yet and unless he plays winter ball and shows us something then I don’t know. One thing that I do wonder - and this is because I question Kotchman’s power for a first baseman - could Kelly play first? Realize he’s still on the opposite side of the diamond that he grew up playing, but at least he’ll have a bigger glove and he doesn’t need to have as much range as second - which he doesn’t have. Just a thought.

By mbatl

September 24, 2008 8:32 PM | Link to this

Steve, my mistake. I thought BB counted into total bases and that skewed my very complex calculations…

By Braveheart

September 24, 2008 8:34 PM | Link to this

Braveheart, ya didn’t read my other paragraph, did ya?

Damn, no, I didn’t. That’s embarrassing. Sorry about that. As usual, I just launched into one of my tirades. My bad. Sorry about that.

By McFann ;Ô;

September 24, 2008 8:36 PM | Link to this

Chuck James is solid until the 6th!!—

Oh yeah!! And there’s number 41!! Braves lead! Braves lead!! (Hope Nitram’s OK…)

Hey! BMac just needs five more RBI to have 300 for his career! (Sorry…)

By Wayne

September 24, 2008 8:36 PM | Link to this

Steve As somebody already mentioned, it is some of the intangibles that are/should be included in determining who is the MVP. But then again, it is up to a vote of many baseball persons, who each have their own criteria.

I just went back and reviewed the MVP’s for the past 20 years, and it seems that more often than not, it IS the numbers. Although I think last year, Jimmy Rollins was not the typical MVP.

For my money, it should be players who bring more than just runs produced. Defense, leadership and other intangibles should be considered.

But then again, I am just one lonely voice in the wilderness. If nobody is around when I speak, did I really say anything?

:-)

Seems to me that Bobby has a quick hook for JoJo.

By Deep Throat

September 24, 2008 8:37 PM | Link to this

Why the heck would ANYONE want Juan Pierre?

By David O'Brien

September 24, 2008 8:37 PM | Link to this

Richbrave, can I use your 8:12 post as my game-story lead?

(Seriously, that was harsh, bro. But amusing, I gotta say.)

By McFann ;Ô;

September 24, 2008 8:37 PM | Link to this

BTW—AVG is .298. One more hit tonight makes it .29960317…

By richbrave

September 24, 2008 8:38 PM | Link to this

Your answer Brother DAVE from this quarter since you are asking:

HAMPTON? Well based upon his previous contract, I think he’s gonna’ want too much money and too few incentives for the BRAVES to take a chance on getting burned again. I don’t think he’s in ATLANTA for the next three years. I’m thinking that’s the contract he’ll want. Too much risk in my mind. But of course, I’m not Mr. WREN who is doing pretty well in my book considering the limitations LIBERTY MEDIA has obviously imposed on the purse-strings, their protestations not-withstanding. Hey LIBERTY, I only know what I see. 120 million payroll to be competative - and spent correctly, of course.

By Steve from OH

September 24, 2008 8:40 PM | Link to this

Braveheart, that’s quite all right. I definitely see your point. I’m always happy to admit when I’ve made a mistake or an overstatement, or have just flat out said something stupid.

By mbatl

September 24, 2008 8:41 PM | Link to this

In a game that really doesn’t count for much, I really wish Bobby would’ve left Jo-Jo out there for a while. We really seldom let a pitcher work through adversity, and sometimes that can be a good thing.

But, I’m not complaining too much. Unless some team demands Jo-Jo as part of a trade (?), let him spend some more time in Gwinnett. He’s still young and has some stuff.

Did I just hear announcer say “McCann racing to the plate?”

By richbrave

September 24, 2008 8:44 PM | Link to this

NCBravesFan:

Yours of 8:19 p.m. Nice take. I agree 100%.

By David O'Brien

September 24, 2008 8:46 PM | Link to this

As bad as Howard’s throw was, that throw that Burrell just made might have been the weakest outfield throw I’ve seen all season. He threw from shallow left field and barely got it over the infield dirt. Boo-birds are out.

By Philly Fan

September 24, 2008 8:46 PM | Link to this

That Philly writer is an idiot. Ask him what 7 players he feels are more valuable than Burrell.

By McFann ;Ô;

September 24, 2008 8:47 PM | Link to this

Whoo-hoo! Beat them FILLIES!!

mbatl Did I just hear announcer say “McCann racing to the plate?”

Oh yeah!!

By David O'Brien

September 24, 2008 8:51 PM | Link to this

Born to hit, this Jones guy.

Just his second career pinch-hit homer. Other was July 2, 2006 vs. Baltimore.

By Braveheart

September 24, 2008 8:51 PM | Link to this

The mets had a huge lead after a delgado grand slam and then choke it away. Where’s Anders and MetroMan?

By Deep Throat

September 24, 2008 8:51 PM | Link to this

Chipper!

People can talk about “good replacements” for Chipper Jones like Infante or whoever, but let’s face it, there is no replacement for Chipper.

By Wayne

September 24, 2008 8:51 PM | Link to this

As excited as I am for Chipper just now, I am equally excited for the fan who just won a thousand dollars!

Thank you Chipper!

By caballo muerto

September 24, 2008 8:52 PM | Link to this

Hellooooo Batting Crown and HOF!

By McFann ;Ô;

September 24, 2008 8:52 PM | Link to this

CHIPPEEEEEEERRRRRRR!!!!

That ball was CRUSHED!!!

.365!!! Go Chipper!!!

By Brian

September 24, 2008 8:53 PM | Link to this

Chipper’s told the Phils fans-SHUT THE FU!! UP!! Shoulder looked fine there!

By StingerSplash

September 24, 2008 8:53 PM | Link to this

How boutcha, Larry Jones Jr! Too bad Chipper won’t do the “chain saw/lawn mower pull” ala Kirk Gibson.

By Tomas

September 24, 2008 8:54 PM | Link to this

Wow Chipper crushed it. If he could just stay healthy for a complete season, he’d be mvp, no doubt, and that would lead to much more wins as well.

By Braveheart

September 24, 2008 8:54 PM | Link to this

The Great Batsby Bolles ‘em over!

By Brian

September 24, 2008 8:55 PM | Link to this

DOB- I was just about to post about Burrell’s throw but I figured someone would beat me. A little leaguer has a better arm.

By JerseyGil

September 24, 2008 8:58 PM | Link to this

CHIPPER FOR PRESIDENT

By McFann ;Ô;

September 24, 2008 9:00 PM | Link to this

Deep Throat—

You said it.

By Tomas

September 24, 2008 9:00 PM | Link to this

Got to keep them right there, this philly offense can get back in a hurry.

By Deep Throat

September 24, 2008 9:01 PM | Link to this

He is not a top three replacement candidate for the Braves but if Wren comes up snake eyes in the OF we could see Orlando Hudson at 2B. You can’t always improve your team they way you want but you MUST improve your team where you can.

WHY would the Braves WASTE money on Orlando Hudson? They don’t need him. They have THREE people who can play second base. It’s like saying let’s sign Francisco Rodriguez when the team already has a good, cheap closer.

(P.S.: Kelly Johnson is a better offensive player than Hudson. Opps.)

Sorry for the kicking the dog comments but can we have two games in a row where KJ doesn’t make run inducing error….

Johnson has 14 errors this season. Same as 2007. He is +4 defensively at his position, meaning he is an above average defensive player.

Errors are a really weak measure of defensive worth. Escobar has 16 errors, but he has still been arguably one of the best defensive shortstops this season.

(Notice no one ever posts irrational, foaming-at-the-mouth posts here when Escobar makes an error? Odd ‘cause many here seem so eager to jump on Johnson, who has less errors than Escobar, any and every time he screws up.)

By N Nine

September 24, 2008 9:01 PM | Link to this

CHIPPER!!!! My car speaker just blew up since Chip Carey screamed very loud on that chipper Homer!

and they say he can’t swing righthanded (hurt)! 2nd PH Homer run ever for Chipper.

By richbrave

September 24, 2008 9:03 PM | Link to this

FOR all the CHIP JONES bashers and haters. Take notice. Pay attention. You won’t see many such players in any ML uni during the balance of your lifetimes. This mans HOF certified.

By Interested Observer

September 24, 2008 9:04 PM | Link to this

Charlie Manuel to Scott Eyre:

“Chipper’s got a bad wing…can’t swing right-handed..just throw him the heater”

…2 minutes later…

Charlie Manuel to Jimy Williams:

“AW….RATS!!”

By Shaun

September 24, 2008 9:05 PM | Link to this

Again, can someone explain to me how a guy who has been watching the Phillies all season, presumably, thinks Howard is the Phillies MVP over Chase Utley? Not trying to be rude, just trying to understand. I just don’t get it. Pretend I’ve been on a desert island for a while and just got back. Whatever you got to do. Just someone please explain it in easy-to-understand terms.

I mean Utley and Howard are nearly identical in total bases. Utley leads the team in on-base percentage. He’s very close to Howard’s team lead in slugging. Utley leads the team in times on base, in hit by pitch. Utley is 13-for-15 in steal attempt to Howard’s 1-for-2. I doubt Howard is the better defender.

By McFann ;Ô;

September 24, 2008 9:07 PM | Link to this

Brian—

Yeah, Burrell’s not much of a fielder, is he?

Mets and Cubs are tied…no way.

No John Grove again. They must be savin’ him for the playoffs or sumthin.

OK!

By kirknga

September 24, 2008 9:10 PM | Link to this

Even with that throw, I’m betting there are plenty of folks who wouldn’t mind seeing Burrell in LF for the Braves next season.

By keylargo

September 24, 2008 9:10 PM | Link to this

CJ - The Bolles Bulldog. Don’t forget the bulldog part.

By David O'Brien

September 24, 2008 9:11 PM | Link to this

Chipper passed the Duke of Flatbush with that homer. Hoss 408, Duke Snider 407.

By Hank Aaron

September 24, 2008 9:11 PM | Link to this

Bobby says he pinch hit Larry there. I want to clear the record. I was the one who told him to pinch hit.

By McFann ;Ô;

September 24, 2008 9:14 PM | Link to this

FOURTY-TWO DOUBLES!!!

Tied for second all-time for most doubles in a single season by a catcher!!

: D Hey, the power of prayer…

By Steve from OH

September 24, 2008 9:14 PM | Link to this

Deep Throat, how DARE you cite “statistics” or “common sense” to back up your argument? I mean, seriously buddy, it’s time to move out of your mother’s basement and, like, get with the program, bra.

By David O'Brien

September 24, 2008 9:14 PM | Link to this

Three doubles tonight for Mac, 42 for the season.

By Wayne

September 24, 2008 9:14 PM | Link to this

McFann You were only asking for 1 double, but Baby Huey has come through big tonight on the two baggers!

By Shaun

September 24, 2008 9:15 PM | Link to this

As bad as Howard’s throw was, that throw that Burrell just made might have been the weakest outfield throw I’ve seen all season. He threw from shallow left field and barely got it over the infield dirt. Boo-birds are out.

What’s your point? So we are supposed to believe Howard is vastly more valuable because of those two plays or because Phillies fans booed Burrell?

Again, the argument all along is they are fairly close in value. Not that Burrell is as valuable or more valuable. The point is that it’s difficult to say Howard is the most valuable Philly when he’s pretty close to Burrell in value.

Burrell has around a 30-point edge in on-base and Howard has around a 30-point edge in slugging.

But Utley is head-and-shoulders above either player so the Howard-Burrell discussion is sort of pointless when talking Phillies MVP.

By Wayne

September 24, 2008 9:15 PM | Link to this

McFann You were only asking for 1 double, but Baby Huey has come through big tonight on the two baggers!

Sit him down for the rest of the season, he is at 300! (just kidding)

By David O'Brien

September 24, 2008 9:17 PM | Link to this

N Nine, Chip C. just sat next to me when I saw your comment about his yell. I read it to him, and he smiled and said, “Good, tell him I’m trying to help our economy by forcing him to upgrade to some Blaupunkt Quadraphonic speakers.”

By Tomas

September 24, 2008 9:18 PM | Link to this

This season there isn’t really a guy who excelled to be undoubtably the mvp. It really depends on who makes it to the playoff’s. My candidates are: David Wright, Carlos Delgado, Ryan Howard, Alfonso Soriano, and Manny Ramirez. Manny really turned the dodgers around, a complete 360.

By N Nine

September 24, 2008 9:19 PM | Link to this

THE CHIPPER JONES UPDATE:

Chipper 1-1 HR .365

Pujols-not playing .350

All the missed games might cost chipper his 500th HR. I’m going to go ahead and declare CHIPPER -2008 BA title winner!!! Tied with M Mantle for highest switch hitter BA. One point for the highest Brave AVG!

Amazing

Great to see Kluchman in a nice groove! With his mother better and that time off from the change of scenery, He is now back to his old self..YES…safe to say he’ll be back next season.

By Spider29

September 24, 2008 9:20 PM | Link to this

McFann, your mann is cooking tonight. Three doubles! You can go to bed happy tonight with that sweet memory!

By Wayne

September 24, 2008 9:22 PM | Link to this

Shaun: It’s called 40 percent. 40 percent more homers AND runs batted in.

And, you can’t use the excuse about Howard batting cleanup, and Utley hitting second, as the guys ahead of Howard have driven in at least 225 runners themselves, probably much more.

It’s like saying that Prado or KJ is just as valuable as Chipper on the Braves. Howard is the man who is feared by other staffs. Utley is worrysome, but Howard is feared.

By richbrave

September 24, 2008 9:22 PM | Link to this

DUKE SNIDER, PEEWEE REESE…Oh to be young again.

By McFann ;Ô;

September 24, 2008 9:24 PM | Link to this

Wayne—

He sure has! I didn’t see #3, but I do know it was hit to the Reaper! BH’s just delivering him a cheery “Hello!”

He also got his AVG up to .300!

Good things come to those who wait…

Oh…heck-fire! The Reaper just swiped second! Guess he’s sayin’ “Hello” back to Baby Huey…

By jake

September 24, 2008 9:28 PM | Link to this

Hey everyone,

This just in:

Hank Aaron would like everyone to know that Chipper would not have hit that pinch-hit HR had Hank not told Bobby Cox to draft him.

That is all.

By MGL

September 24, 2008 9:29 PM | Link to this

EqA is derived from Raw EqA, which is (H + TB + 1.5(BB + HBP + SB) + SH + SF) divided by (AB + BB + HBP + SH + SF + CS + SB)*

And 1/2 approaches zero for increasingly large values of 2.

All these stats have my brain addled. Can someone remind me what a K is? and how is it different from a SO?

By McFann ;Ô;

September 24, 2008 9:29 PM | Link to this

Spider29—

He’s really cookin’! Sweet memory for sure! Second time in his career he’s hit three doubles in one game! (I’m pretty sure.)

Last time was in Boston on May 19, 2007.

I’ll go to bed extra happy if they hang on and win this one!

By kirknga

September 24, 2008 9:31 PM | Link to this

Braves 3rd in batting average, 2nd in walks, and 1st in men left on base.

By Ice Cube

September 24, 2008 9:32 PM | Link to this

Three doubles tonight for Mac

Get Mac at the plate and he’s trouble, Tonight, he messed around and got a triple double, Freaking brothers everyway like C.J., You best believe, today was a good day

By Brian

September 24, 2008 9:34 PM | Link to this

Man, Chip Carey yells louder than that guy who used to announce the games a couple of years ago with Tom P. He does the Hawks games now. He was way more annoying though!

By David O'Brien

September 24, 2008 9:35 PM | Link to this

It’s probably been noted already, but just in case: Pujols hasn’t played tonight for the Cards, who are in the fifth inning of their game with Arizona.

Cards got eliminated last night, so maybe the beaten-up dude is gonna rest.

By N Nine

September 24, 2008 9:37 PM | Link to this

DOB Funny stuff.Glad he got a laugh out of it! This comming on the night Bush addressing the nation, “our entire economy is in danger.” Hope Liberty Media is doing good.

By Wayne

September 24, 2008 9:37 PM | Link to this

Nice to make it difficult for the Phillies. It’s gonna be an interesting weekend, for sure.

Gotta run. Household is in a state of disarray!

:-)

By Shaun

September 24, 2008 9:41 PM | Link to this

Wayne, through yesterday’s games Howard is 6th in the majors with 478 runners on base during his plate appearances. Utley is 20th with 436. 42 more runners for Howard.

Howard has 221 plate appearances with runners in scoring position to Utley’s 211 plate appearances.

So all of that shouldn’t matter? We should just look at RBI total, and ignore the fact that Howard has hit with 42 more runners on during his plate appearances and has come to the plate ten more times with runners in scoring position?

Plus there is the fact that Utley gets on base more and they have nearly identical slugging percentages on total base totals.

And this of course doesn’t take into account defense or baserunning.

By StingerSplash

September 24, 2008 9:42 PM | Link to this

If JoJo starts the year in AAA next season, he’ll still be way too close to the Hartsfield-Jackson flight path. He better be glad the new park is in Gwinnett and not Cobb, or the Raptors flying out of Lockheed may have to lock on a several small moving targets.

By Random

September 24, 2008 9:42 PM | Link to this

Yee-Hah!!!!!

Another two-base triple for the ineffable, McEffable McCannn!!!!!!!

By Dadgum

September 24, 2008 9:49 PM | Link to this

I will reiterate….I don’t care how good Hampton finishes the man is simply NOT going to be on the Braves roster come spring. NO WAY No HOW! The Braves are on a TOTAL rebuild. Hampton can’t fit that bill. I wish him well. The Braves must move on and I am positive Wren will act accordingly. It will be a total shock to see him in a Braves uniform.

By richbrave

September 24, 2008 9:50 PM | Link to this

DAVID:

Yours of 9:17 p.m. N NINE should also put them in a PORSCHE (BULL DURHAM).

By TennesseePaul

September 24, 2008 9:50 PM | Link to this

Payne: 2:43pm-You could make a compelling argument that Pat Burrell is more valuable that Howard. I’m almost certain that he’s just as valuable.

Payne: 7:27pm-I don’t think anyone said that Burrell is just as valuable as Howard

It’s been a while for me on this blog. I’ve been on the DL but I’ve healed, going through rehab now. It’s good to see the team winning. It’s good to see all’s well on the beat. Ha! I’ll even toss in a =). Good stuff.

Love me while I’m here, mama, but park-adjust me when I’m gone

Classic NCScoots, classic.

By bruce

September 24, 2008 9:53 PM | Link to this

hear them whine… about Josh stealing with a six run lead…. oh I wish I was there to just stand up and laugh out loud… would really be some good payback from that July game when brian got knocked out… payback is awesome.

By McFann ;Ô;

September 24, 2008 9:57 PM | Link to this

Shoot…Mac hasn’t gotten a hit with RISP since Sept. 16 (0-7).

By bruce

September 24, 2008 10:00 PM | Link to this

McFann what a sweet way to finish out the last two games in philly… threw out victorino last night and three doubles tonight and two wins… really wish I could have made the trip up there to cheer the braves and be booed by the “fans”

By Kim

September 24, 2008 10:01 PM | Link to this

I’ve had to turn the channel because I don’t think my heart can take this! I am loving it though.

I think I’ve developed a little crush on Casey … a girl can dream!

By Steve from OH

September 24, 2008 10:03 PM | Link to this

Cubs winning 6-5. Brewers winning 3-1. The plot thickens.

By richbrave

September 24, 2008 10:04 PM | Link to this

JULIAN just doesn’t seem to be able to concentrate without some comfort food on first.

By uga-brave

September 24, 2008 10:06 PM | Link to this

braves sure are not either evaluating or developing their left handed starters very well.

horacio, james, and now jo-jo. all three could not keep the ball in the park, all pitched behind in the count, and all seemed teriffied of the inner half of the plate.

somewhere along the line the braves minor league evaluators are botching things up.

By bruce

September 24, 2008 10:08 PM | Link to this

now the phillies announcers are whining about brad lidge needed some rest, but not this way….

By richbrave

September 24, 2008 10:09 PM | Link to this

TennPaul:

Glad to see you healing and back. Not Cardiac rehab I hope.?

By cabravesfan

September 24, 2008 10:10 PM | Link to this

I would just like to add something to those who claim Kelly Johnson is not a good second baseman…Chase Utley, widely considered to be the best (or top 2 or 3) second basemen in the league has…13 errors, just one less then Kelly. And someone please correct me if I am wrong but Utley came up as a second baseman right?

By Brian

September 24, 2008 10:10 PM | Link to this

Victorino got embarrased, simple as that

By David O'Brien

September 24, 2008 10:11 PM | Link to this

Tavarez has ALWAYS been a scrapper, his whole career. He’ll never back down and he’ll start one if he’s in the mood. Fiery, fiery dude.

And he would have destroyed the Flyin’ Hawaiian, no doubt.

By Tomas

September 24, 2008 10:13 PM | Link to this

What in the world just happen?

By Jake

September 24, 2008 10:13 PM | Link to this

If Victorino would have gotten picked off that would have been great. I don’t care how the man is pitching that is just one man I would not want to mess with.

By Shaun's Shrink

September 24, 2008 10:17 PM | Link to this

Another intangible that cannot be sabermetrically measured - Kotchman taking a Ryan Howard fastball in the back and continuing to play and contribute to the game…he had Taverez’s back just then..

Please show me the formula…preferably one that takes more than one dimension into account..

By uga-brave

September 24, 2008 10:17 PM | Link to this

casey kotchman is a sid bream clone. swings like and runs like him.

By McFann ;Ô;

September 24, 2008 10:17 PM | Link to this

Bruce—

Very sweet! I’ve enjoyed it for sure! (OK, didn’t like the 0 fer last night, but he made up for that.) It’s too bad you couldn’t make it!

Hey, and I’m really enjoying the ChopTalks! Thank you so much!

Brad Lidge needed rest, eh? Well…

Now: Reaper, you freak! What was your problem? It was just a pick-off move! My word…Tavarez is a bit of a hothead, though…

I think it’s funny when the guys from the bullpens come out like that! LOL…Kotchman fif a good job of containing Tavarez.

Haha! That was funny for some reason…

By Interested Observer

September 24, 2008 10:18 PM | Link to this

Well, that was exciting! Julian should have kept going for Victorino. What do we care if Julian gets suspended at this point? Now getting the Flyin Hawaiin suspended for the playoffs…that would have been funny!

By Brian

September 24, 2008 10:21 PM | Link to this

Man, after that I’m all for keeping Tavarez around next year!! That was AWESOME!! Made that little snot look like a B***!!

By Bobby's Cox

September 24, 2008 10:24 PM | Link to this

Bottom 8 in NY, bases loaded, 2 out. Tie game.

Big AB for Reyes as we speak.

C’mon Cubs!

By richbrave

September 24, 2008 10:24 PM | Link to this

DAVID:

Your 10:11 p.m. speaks volumes about TAVARAS’ modus operandi. Needs that baserunner doesn’t he.?

By curtis

September 24, 2008 10:24 PM | Link to this

Comparing Utley to KJ.
KJ 139 games at 2B, 670 chances. Utley 156 games at 2B, 791 chances.

And Kelly has one more error. Which one would you rather have playing 2nd?

By McFann ;Ô;

September 24, 2008 10:26 PM | Link to this

Interested Observer Now getting the Flyin Hawaiin suspended for the playoffs…that would have been funny!

Yeah!!

Brian—

I think you’re right…

By McFann ;Ô;

September 24, 2008 10:28 PM | Link to this

Great series win!! Finally won a series against them Fillies!

Night, all!!

By Kim

September 24, 2008 10:29 PM | Link to this

Somebody tell me what happened with Tavarez and Victorino! I turned the channel and missed it.

By richbrave

September 24, 2008 10:31 PM | Link to this

BRAVES WIN, but gee, 14-4 not so hot. Come on BRAVES in ‘09. Little payback is in order.

By cabravesfan

September 24, 2008 10:34 PM | Link to this

curtis

I was not saying Kelly is better then Utley- of course he is not. All I was saying is that his defensive numbers (at least error-wise) are comparable to the rest of the league…not as horrific as some would want to believe. Actually, Utley, Dan Uggla and Ian Kinsler (all of them all-stars) have as many or more errors then Kelly. And Kelly has been playing the position for only 2 years. If he becomes a less streaky hitter there is no reason to panic…that was my point. and to answer your question I would take Utley any day…over ANY other 2nd baseman in the league

By Brian

September 24, 2008 10:36 PM | Link to this

Shaun’s Shrink- Is that you DOB? Very funny!

By Shaun's Shrink

September 24, 2008 10:40 PM | Link to this

Another way to look at it non - sabermetrically..

MVP = Most Valuable Player

Can we define value in another dimension?

Who do the majority of the Philly Phans pay to see - Ryan Howard or Chase Utley or Pat Burrell?

By Couch Tater

September 24, 2008 10:43 PM | Link to this

Anybody seen hydee? Is she O.K.?

            :)

By Wayne

September 24, 2008 10:44 PM | Link to this

After doing the dishes, I came back to catch the last two outs. What happened with Tavarez?

Shaun Hey, I like stats. I also like the intangibles. I am not trying to be argumentative. When I checked your numbers, and after a few simple calculations, I think you have proven to all that Howard is definitely the most valuable run producer of the Phillies.

Per your numbers: Howard 478 plate appearances with runners on. 221 runners in scoring position. That is .46 runner in scoring position when he comes up to bat.

Utley has 436 plate appearances with runners on. 211 runners in scoring position. That is .48 runners in scoring position when he comes up to bat.

Now, for Howards 221 runners in scoring position, he has driven in 43% of the possible runners, after backing out his home runs. Utley, when you back out his home runs, he has driven in 32% of the runners.

So, the numbers bear out that Howard is more of a run producer than Utley. Now granted, he is not the on-base threat that Utley is. What is more important? Producing runs? Getting on base for others to produce runs.

Utley is not your typical #2 hitter. Definitely they have a lineup to be feared, with Rollins leading off, Utley in the two hole, and Werth, who has been a pleasant surprise in the three. Then you have the monster in the clean-up spot, who has been hot lately. Burrell, in other lineups would be a one or a two top gun. For the Phillies, he is a distant third. He kinda gets the scraps after everyone else has eaten.

Now, if you still think Utley is the top dog, then we will have to disagree. Which guy can they least afford to lose?

BTW, I am a bit perplexed that you didn’t see the obvious numbers that I saw, from your earlier post. To me that makes it head and shoulders clear who is the most prolific run producer on their team.

OK, so what happened with Victorino and Tavarez?

By Mitch

September 24, 2008 10:47 PM | Link to this

The Braves are in a very unusual situation. We need pitching. Huddy is gone for all or most of 09, and right now, Jair is our only reliable pitcher.

As for what to do with Smoltz and Glavine. I believe Tommy can definitely pitch again. More than likely, you give him the same one year, 8 to 9 mil dollar deal you gave him this year, to hopefully let him finish his career in Atlanta with a good season.

As for Smoltzie: I really think he will give it his all to come back. I dont see John going anywhere else, in his 22nd season, at age 42. You probably give John somewhere in the neighborhood of 12 mil for one year, with incentives, and an option for 2010.

Hampton is much more complicated. Yes, the Braves need pitching, and Hampton is pitching well right now, but, given his injury history, if you sign Glavine, Smoltz, and would want another pitcher, what can you give Hampton? The upside is, Hampton is younger than Glavine and Smoltz. The downside is, except for this year, and Smoltzs TJ surgery, Hampton is much more of a question mark health wise. With Hudson gone for all or most of 2009, I dont know what Wren and JS are thinking in terms of budget, or who to sign. It seems to me Hampton may be the odd man out. If you re sign Glavine and Smoltz, you then have at least four potential starting pitchers, not counting Reyes, et al. However, Glavine said the other night that if Smoltzie does play, he might well be our closer in 2009. In that scenario, we will need another starter. We will have Glav, Jair, Campy, and then Reyes/James question marks, et al.

It will be interesting to see what Frank and JS do. They have many questions, but also many options.

Mitch

By Ed

September 24, 2008 10:49 PM | Link to this

I have my doubts about keeping Hampton. He’s drawn a pile of money for three years without any pitching, and I know they were serious injuries, but suddenly in the last month of his multi-year contract he’s cured and able to start pitching again How long into next season will his injuries keep him on the bench? Let someone else pay him and find out.

By Wayne

September 24, 2008 10:50 PM | Link to this

uga Is that a bad thing, Kotchman playing like Sid? Kid seems to be coming around. Gotta be tough coming from one of the best teams in baseball, to one of the worst this year. Then his mom almost dying! Not an easy summer for the kid, and yes, he is still just a kid. About the same age as my oldest son.

BTW, how ya been?

The more I see Burrell and Dunn in the field, the more I like Casey Blake.

By Uncle Bubba

September 24, 2008 10:54 PM | Link to this

All this talk about METRICS makes me want to barf. Just the other day I was fixing my FORD and my craftsmen 1/4 inch socket wouldn’t fit. (Almost, but not quite.) Well the auto parts store told me I needed a metric socket.(FOR MY FORD!)

All you sabermethanes can blow it out your rear axle all the way to China!

Oh, good homer by Chipper.

By Deep Throat

September 24, 2008 10:55 PM | Link to this

Mets just wasted a leadoff triple. Tied 6-6 in the bottom of the ninth, Murphy tripled. David Wright struck out. Two intentional walks made it bases loaded before Church grounded out (out at home) and Castro struck out.

Go Cubs!

By keylargo

September 24, 2008 10:56 PM | Link to this

cabravesfan

good posts (plural) about KJ. I am so tired of people having no grasp of the game making judgements based on a single play, a week or a month.

I think I’ll just wait until about April 1, 2009 and cheer the Braves and their 3rd year starting 2nd baseman Kelly Johnson. Maybe that will clear it up for some.

By Jake

September 24, 2008 10:58 PM | Link to this

For those who didn’t see it with Victorino at third with 2 outs Taveraz almost picked him off by walking to the bag because Victorino wasn’t paying attention. I guess Victorino said something to Taveraz from there and they went back and forth before Taveraz went at Victorino. Benches and Bullpens cleared but the only people who were really being held back were Victorino and Tavarez. That’s the best description I can give.

By Vote Chipper for the Aaron award! (AKA Run Heap Run)

September 24, 2008 11:01 PM | Link to this

I heard Chipper’s homer on the radio just as I pulled in the drive, I had an armload of stuff and about killed myself trying to hurry up and get in and see the replay lol. I was driving my son’s jeep and his keys aren’t as familiar as mine so I took forever unlocking the door and missed it but finally saw the replay on the ‘how far did it fly’ dealie.

I liked Tavarez’s fire. This team needs more fire, dammit. How hilarious would it have been if he had gotten Victorino out while he was staring off into space?

Good blog as always, DOB .

By Willie Randolph

September 24, 2008 11:03 PM | Link to this

Mets chokin’ on their own vomit, being the dogs they are

By Vote Chipper for the Aaron award! (AKA Run Heap Run)

September 24, 2008 11:06 PM | Link to this

Oh and about Hampton, I would offer him a 1 year 1 million dollar contract. No more than that…

By Chop Chop

September 24, 2008 11:07 PM | Link to this

Poor Mets.

Giving up three runs in the top of the tenth.

They just showed a frustrated fan at Shea pounding the seat in front of him with his bare hands. I guess he’s trying to tear that damn stadium down early.

By Jake

September 24, 2008 11:08 PM | Link to this

If the Mets lose this one after a leadoff triple left stranded in the 9th. All I gotta say is WOW. Brewers have won and with us beating the Phillies they knew they had a chance to pick up a game.

By Mitchell

September 24, 2008 11:09 PM | Link to this

Mitch, who the hell do you think you are?

You’re stealing my thunder with your thoughtful and well written commentaries.

You’re ruining my rep.

And how dare the MEts not win? I don’t appreciate that. I don’t know what’s happening now but how do you get a runner at third with no outs and not score?

Who do you think you are, us?

They owe us big time if they don’t win this game.

I’d be happy for them to get a game on the lousy Phillies. Just don’t win the World Series, Mets.

Ha!

I haven’t been so sure about Tevares but that 8th inning was awesome. He should have decked Victorino.

I still don’t get why we never got that guy back. Clean play, whatever. I don’t care. I want to see him get one under the chin.

Where have these Braves been all my life? I didn’t think it would literally be possible to win a game with JoJo Reyes throwing even one pitch.

Amazing.

Chipper is legend.

Bouyah! (for the record that is the correct spelling of that word. Put that in your thesaurus)

By cabravesfan

September 24, 2008 11:12 PM | Link to this

keylargo

thanks- i’ve grown tired of it as well.

I think I’ll just wait until about April 1, 2009 and cheer the Braves and their 3rd year starting 2nd baseman Kelly Johnson. I am with you on this one…of all the holes the Braves have to fill this off season, second base is not one of them (or shouldn’t be)

By uga-brave

September 24, 2008 11:12 PM | Link to this

wayne,

not a bad thing at all. i think kotchman is a gamer.

just got back from tempe, az.

there were probably 25,000 uga fans out there. pretty muched closed down the RUSTY SPUR in scottsdale every night. great time.

By N Nine

September 24, 2008 11:18 PM | Link to this

Another NY Mets loss and Brew Crew actually won a game! That Metsblog has to be ugly right now. Willie Randolph had no chance in finishing this season. He looked happy on the Yankees final game and had a nice slid. (2nd base).- GM Omar getting only lovin’ from the owners!

By Vote Chipper for the Aaron award! (AKA Run Heap Run)

September 24, 2008 11:26 PM | Link to this

Wait the Brewers won? So that means…

Somewhere in New Jersey Willie Randolph has a big smile on his face.

By AdirondackDave

September 24, 2008 11:27 PM | Link to this

Hey McFann —- What is the all-time doubles record for catchers? Thanks.

By Greg in TN

September 24, 2008 11:32 PM | Link to this

Evening lads and lasses…

To Eyre is human, but the Offensive Assassin is indeed divine. Have to be a little concerned about Chipper’s shoulder although that had no bearing on Chipper’s blast which landed inside the left-field foul pole at the ballpark in Philly tonight.

DOB: the paper doesn’t give long-term contracts Ouch! So I guess a no-trade clause is out of the question? (kidding, of course) You make great points as always. As I said in yesterday’s blog, Mike Hampton’s really throwing the ball well of late and with the market for pitching being what it is, I see no realistic way the Braves don’t at least make an offer to Hampton for ‘09. They could get out bid, and if it does, it does.

Folks, Phillies fans are finding out the same thing mets fans found out over the weekend. This team isn’t rolling over for anyone in the waning days of the season.

A plethora of doubles tonight for everyone’s favorite catcher. Nice hat trick by B-Mac.

Can’t say this series showcased the slickest fielding of the year, however I’ll take another two out of three and a series win against a team that won nine of it’s last ten previous games. The Phillies have been blistering the ball lately, so a lot for this denizen to smile about during my visit.

Wow, Cubs went ahead on a bloop single by Derek Lee in the 10th and now Aramis Ramirez just belted a two-run homer. The mets had first and third and no one out in the 7th when Dan Murphy ripped a liner to Lee, who then stepped on first to double off Reyes. mets also squandered Murphy lead off triple in the 9th. Time to load up the 7 train.

McFann: No worries here, I know where you were coming from. No big deal at all, and you’re welcome. I’m having some issues getting the pics forwarded out on Comcast’s web email portal, so if I don’t have a chance to get the shots to Lew tomorrow, I’ll definitely send them when I get back home on Friday.

By Mitchell

September 24, 2008 11:33 PM | Link to this

METS!!!!!!!!!!!!

ARE YOU KIDDING ME!?!

Shame on you Mets. Look what we did for you. I don’t appreciate this.

No I do not.

Are you kidding? Ten left on base in the last 5 innings? I don’t want to hear that.

I started reading one of the Mets blogs on NY Daily News of Post or some s* last night after we beat the Phils and they were saying, “yeah man, I got faith in the Braves, they’re gonna take it to the Phils.”

I was touched. So we touch up los Phillies and then this.

Oh, I can’t stand SportsCenter. Neil Everett, you Hawaii’n homer. Talking ‘bout, “Tevares doesn’t want none of this from Victorino. That’s how they make ‘em in Hawaii. Then it was over and nothing happened.”

INCORRECT. Tevares struck Matt Stairs dumb @$$ out, which probably would have wrapped up your highlight of the game quite nicely, one would think.

Apparently not.

Boo Mets.

By keylargo

September 24, 2008 11:34 PM | Link to this

The muts have lost, blowing a 5 - 1 lead and have fallen into a tie with the Brewers for the wildcard.

The muts must now play the Florida Marlins, who are salivating over the chance to ruin the muts season.

Like they haven’t blown the division (ain’t those easy to win!), and are now going to get their azzes chewed off by the Marlins.

Let us know, muts, when you win ONE division and until then, I hope we miss you on this blog!!!!!!

By David O'Brien

September 24, 2008 11:44 PM | Link to this

Funny quote from Chipper that I forget to get in the game story:

“I had writers from New York papers coming up to me last week and asking me if it was a conspiracy, if we wanted the Phillies to win. This should put those questions to rest.”

By N Nine

September 24, 2008 11:54 PM | Link to this

AdirondackDave

After a good productive night, McFann and Mcturtle are happily asleep!

I think it’s under 50. so Mac should be close! McFann should confirm that for you tomorrow morning.

Run Heap Run has the Aaron voting started?

…AND when is that HOF voting for Skip??

By Bobby's Cox

September 24, 2008 11:55 PM | Link to this

For the 2nd straight year, the Marlins are going to ruin the Mets playoff chances.

History repeating itself. Gotta love it.

By David O'Brien

September 24, 2008 11:57 PM | Link to this

Shaun, regarding your 9:05 post including this: “Not trying to be rude, just trying to understand. I just don’t get it.”

Exactly.

And regarding your 9:15 post, where you were all indignant about my comment regarding Burrell’s throw: Dude, honestly, you need to step back and realize not all posts on here tonight were directed at you. I had long since moved on from that silly argument about Burrell vs. Howard for MVP. I was merely pointing out that the throw was terrible.

Dude, it’s all good. You think Pat Burrell is a better MVP candidate than Ryan Howard, or more valuable to the Phillies, whether those who watch the Phillies and cover the Phillies know it or not. That’s fine. It really is. It means nothing to me, just a healthy discussion that’s long since become a dead horse you’re beating with a big VORP stick.

By Wayne

September 25, 2008 12:01 AM | Link to this

Gotta love this NL East/Wildcard race. In a perfect world, neither the Phillies nor the Mets would win, but alas, if I must choose, I pick the Phillies. It’s a NY thing.

The Brewers kinda ticked me off with the firing of Yost. Not a good play in my book, but I gotta pull for them over the Mets.

As Braves fans, who do we pull for to get to, and then win the World Series. I guess I gotta go for the Cubbies in the NL, and the Rays as the ultimate underdog in the AL. Please, no sunny California series. I would not be disappointed if either team won it all. (as uga is saying, “Get off the fence Wayne!”)

With all this housework, my back is killing me. Gotta run, though it is still early out here. Long day tomorrow.

I can’t believe only three more games for the Braves this year. Where did the time go?

(Casey Blake, Juan Rivera, Mike Hampton, Derek Lowe, and Aaron Harang. Throw in Torrealba to back up Baby Huey, and you’ve got a winner there!)

By hydee

September 25, 2008 12:05 AM | Link to this

Anybody seen hydee? Is she O.K.? Haha I’m here & fine. So glad to see ya’ll appreciate Tavarez a bit after tonight’s game. He did the same move to a guy on second one of the first games he started for the Sox in 06, I thought Jerry & Don would die laughing about it. They did agree though that the baserunner should have been embarrassed that it was close to being an out. It was nice to hear Bobby Cox say in his postgame interview that Julian is a competitor, he will totally do whatever it takes to get an out. That flyin’ Hawaiian looked pretty scared after that :) Glive Julian credit for keeping a cool head while walking past Victorino to the dugout, believe it or not he has matured ALOT in the last couple of years. One thing is for sure though, when Julian is pitching it is never, ever boring :)

By Mitchell

September 25, 2008 12:06 AM | Link to this

I was listening to Chip in the car too when he made the call on the Jones homerun.

Nobody makes that call better than Chip.

I couldn’t help being reminded of that series in Philly when we scored 9 in one inning only to lose by a run. That sucked.

This could have been a totally different year if the Braves had played as well as they are now. Or even a fraction. A little bit of what’s been going on in the last two weeks sprikled throughout the season, that would have been nice.

I don’t know what that means.

It means that things could have been a lot different if just a few things went the other way. I mean like if we had won instead of lost more games than lost games.

It’s science people.

By Greg in TN

September 25, 2008 12:07 AM | Link to this

Must be the hot sauce on the wings tonight at dinner. Meant to say they could get outbid on Hampton, and if it happens, it happens. Not much can be done about that if someone wants to overpay.

By keylargo

September 25, 2008 12:29 AM | Link to this

DOB

Was there ever any talk of negligence on the part of the Brewers when Diaz was hurt?

I felt the wall he slid into was improperly padded. If I remember it correctly, there was an access door to under the stands that had an edge exposed. He slid in an attempt to make a catch and hit the unpadded area around the door.

By George W

September 25, 2008 12:33 AM | Link to this

Mitchell, you are starting to sound just like me. It is some sort of logically figured sort of thing with that winning and losing stuff. Real scientific like.

By BA

September 25, 2008 12:53 AM | Link to this

nolie, yes I meant (hours ago) a trade on the magnitude of the Hudson trade. Everybody talks about sending Heyward, Hanson, Schafer, etc. for an ace. But obviously, using the Hudson trade as an example, under the right circumstances you can get an ace without selling the farm. Wren made a couple of good trades last winter, and I look forward to seeing what he pulls off this time around.

The Mutts are choking dogs. It’s the next best thing to contending- watching the Mutts wet the bed EVERY year! I hope that schmuck Anders is pulling his dirty hair out.

I also hope, however unlikely it is, that Mac can eliminate Giles from our record book. And with the way this year has gone, I’d just as soon they skip JJJ’s last start. Need that kid for next year.

By Brian

September 25, 2008 1:05 AM | Link to this

One more thing on Tavares. You could tell McCann definitely appreciated that from him. He might have taken it as Tavares gettin back at the little turd even though he appologized to him for the headbutt. I’d rather it have been Utley but Victorino needed a reality check too.

By N Nine

September 25, 2008 1:24 AM | Link to this

but Victorino needed a reality check too

The pesky reaper knows how to stir up controversy.

By Wayne

September 25, 2008 1:27 AM | Link to this

Insomnia sucks. I have been thinking about something. How many teams in both leagues rely so heavily on their catcher as one of their best hitters. Soto with the Cubs is 3-4 on their list. Mauer is a #1 or #2. Martin in LA is a 3-4 down the list.

I think the fact that we are so much better when Mac is in, is really a detriment when he is out. Not that we can do much about it, except to find some other hitters who can come through like B-Mac does. But, if we are going to lose our second best hitter once a week, that is about 25-30 games per year where we are at a distinct disadvantage.

Along the same lines, with Chipper injury issues of the past few years, we can’t really count on him to be 100% from this point on. That doesn’t mean we need to trade him, or that he needs to retire, but it puts us in a terrible bind when he is out.

Now, when they are both out, I wonder what our record is?

Remedies: We can’t really move Mac anywhere, as he is only suited for catcher and DH. As for Chipper, same story. He would miss just as many games at first as he would at third, and probably almost as many if he were a DH.

It would never make sense to try to get a top notch backup catcher, who would be used once a week, unless he could play another position when not catching. Not likely that player exists.

I think then what we need is a very versatile player, with some real pop, who can play multiple positions, a lot like DeRosa. Infante, for all his positives, is not that player. Neither is Prado. We need someone who can really thump it. Norton might be that sort of a hitter, but he seems to have no glove, and does terrible when starting.

Would Casey Blake be the man? He plays the 4 corners. He bats right handed, and could spell Kotchman on occasion, and would be a decent player to plug into third when Chipper is not available. When Chipper is on his game, he could be a platoon in left, or even spell Frenchy once in a while maybe.

Not that I am totally sold on Blake. He is league average with the glove, at best. Who else is out there, that would be available? I have liked what I have seen of Jeff Baker in Colorado, but he seems to be WAY too streaky, and his home/away splits are probably not good. I do think he would be a better choice than Prado or Infante though.

Infante needs to be the middle infield backup. Remote outfield help, but only rarely used. He is a negative defensively out there.

Prado, while I like his bat and his spunk, if he can’t play SS, he will never be a top notch utility guy. Too few roster spots to have a guy who can’t play SS. So, if Nitram doesn’t take over second from Kelly (if KJ is traded), then I think he should be packaged to help us somewhere else.

We don’t have anybody on the farm who is ready to do it all. Lillibridge, while he might come around eventually, is not the answer right now. He will probably be packaged this winter. Hicks might be a keeper, but he is probably a couple of years away.

The real answer to all my rambling is 1-3 years away: Heyward/Freeman/Schafer/Campbell. We need others to come up and be as good as or BETTER than McCann and someone to eventually replace Chipper as the go to guy.

I just don’t think we can sign or trade for the real production that we need. The candidates are weak defensively, and that opens a whole new can of worms to deal with.

Is Flowers a natural catcher? I know he has played some first base, but can he play third, or the outfield?

I am rambling too darned much.

Those Philly sandwiches are sounding very good right now. Damn!

I have to go in Friday for a little procedure that men my age are requested to do ….. use your imagination. Nothing to eat but clear liquids for tomorrow, and then nothing at all on Friday until I am back home Friday afternoon. Damn!

A burrito sure sounds good right now….

Well, let’s give sleep one more try. Anybody got the magic answers to my questions, I will check back in the morning.

Gotta love the Braves!!

By N8

September 25, 2008 1:29 AM | Link to this

Shaun

It appears to me that you’ve got a better chance of convincing DOB to throw some Whitesnake on his I-Pod, than you do convincing him of the legitimacy of VORP.

But keep trying. Your persistence is amusing me none the less.

Thanks for posting all of Burrell’s numbers and detailing why he SHOULD NOT be on the Braves radar, for the dollar amount he is gonna command.

Again, you fail to watch the game(s), use your eyes and judge players (like the old scouts used to - and many still do), based on how they look, what approach they use, and what their demeanor and body language tell us, when they have opportunities to help their team win.

Burrell might not be the Phillies best outfielder, much less their MVP. The thought that you think he belongs in that conversation, is enough reason for me to EVER take VORP seriously.

Well done.

By Wayne

September 25, 2008 1:30 AM | Link to this

Brian: What happened tonight between Tavarez and Victorino? I missed about 3 innings…

By gotigers72

September 25, 2008 2:15 AM | Link to this

What, no mention of Corky for MVP? Guess his .390 average doesn’t mean anything huh? Still can’t believe the Braves sent him to Richmond with that average.

What’s that? His average was .093 and not .390? Guess my dyslexia is kicking in again.

I wish Julian would have kicked Victorino’s a**. I still think that was a dirty play when he ran over McCann. He lowered his shoulder and ran him over. No need for that IMO. Catcher is stationary, runner is flying down the line with all that momentum. Dirty play. I was hoping one of the Braves’ pitchers would give him a close shave for free, but I guess Bobby don’t play that way, or maybe Bobby did not think it was a dirty play. Funny, but in the past 2 or 3 years, McCann has been run over 3 times, and all 3 times led to injuries which caused him to miss playing time, including one [ankle] that affected him all freakin’ year. Yet I don’t recall ONE Brave running over any opposing player in that manner. What’s good for the goose is good for the gander, or whatever that saying is.

By Coach (Skip will be missed)

September 25, 2008 2:43 AM | Link to this

Shaun is to VORP as mental institution is to insanity. The two go hand in hand.

By Coach (Skip will be missed)

September 25, 2008 2:55 AM | Link to this

And Shaun, concerning Pat the bat. I’ll tell you exactly how many MVP, GOLD GLOVE and SILVER SLUGGER AWARDS He will have when his career is over:

Z-E-R-O

N-A-D-A

Z-I-L-C-H

N-E-V-E-R GONNA HAPPEN, PAL.

Now, put that in your pipe and smoke it!

By BA

September 25, 2008 3:12 AM | Link to this

Maybe Shaun is just WAY ahead of his time. Bet Rogers Hornsby never heard of slugging percentage.

By Goodoleboy58

September 25, 2008 3:37 AM | Link to this

Sorry I wasn’t around but did anyone else see this game note:

Three “suspicious” packages found outside the first-base entrance to the ballpark forced the evacuation of some fans and stadium personnel two hours before the game, though the Phillies continued taking batting practice.

Police detonated the package, which turned out to be a prop used in a commercial shoot involving the Phillie Phanatic. It contained hot dogs heavily wrapped in white packaging and duct tape that were used as projectiles by the Phanatic’s hot dog launcher.

HAHA

By GermanBravesFan

September 25, 2008 5:30 AM | Link to this

Speaking about Tavarez: my lasting image is of him sitting in the dugout crying after the Braves clinched the World Series in ‘95 …

By ncscoots

September 25, 2008 6:30 AM | Link to this

Those committed to the idea that Johnson will “never” be a 2B never saw Marcus Giles play the position in the minors, I’m guessing. Because he was an absolute stone butcher. I believe he turned out OK with the glove. I imagine Kelly will, also, with more experience. Of course, I don’t have the prescient evaluation skills of some our bloggers here…

That being said, I fear he’ll be in the wind this offseason. The Braves have much payroll flexibility, true, but there just don’t seem to be many good candidates on which to use it. Thus, the trade market seems at least as likely an avenue for improvement. If Wren can get the pieces the Braves seem to need through trades without compromising the ML squad and savaging the farm…well, famous magicians the world over can retire. Otherwise, the blog will howl this offseason when favorites are shipped.

Sun is up, and time for me to re-enter the business fray for another day. Gotta raise my VORP.

By Lew

September 25, 2008 6:48 AM | Link to this

That VORP stick used to beat Burrell is also good for killing Bandersnatches in the Tulgey Wood. Don’t you just love those literary references? Calloo Callay.

By richbrave

September 25, 2008 7:46 AM | Link to this

WAYNE:

Good luck with the procedure. I can surely relate. Gotta’ finish one today myself.

By Jeff R

September 25, 2008 7:47 AM | Link to this

Though I’ no Kelly Johnson fan, I’m not terribly concerned if he stays or goes. It’s a no-brainer that Wren is going to focus on rebuilding the starting pitching. That means getting aggressive in the free agent market and/or via trades. Johnson may be the most marketable talent on the major league roster who Wren is willing to move as part of a deal for pitching.

I think it would be an error in strategy if Wren thinks that all he needs to do is patch up the pitching staff - in other words, bring back Hampton, rely on Campillo and sign a 36 year old Derek Lowe. That means he’s trying to build the team for a one-year run. The Braves need to get younger and position for the future. I’d rather see him acquire younger talent with plenty of upside, give the kids on the farm another season to develop and, hopefully, see the 2010 team step up.

By Eware

September 25, 2008 7:53 AM | Link to this

DOB, you’re right about Hermida. My bad. He was talked about so highly around the deadline, and I didn’t check his stats. Got potential though. But, so does Frenchy, so…

Thoughts on the new Kings of Leon?

By Crap-Wheelie

September 25, 2008 7:56 AM | Link to this

I can’t decide if it’s good for the Braves if the Mets flame out again. I hate the Mets. And I want them to fail. But if they miss again, CC Sabathia and K-Rod will end up on their 2009 roster. The new stadium gives them more money than God. Between the Yanks and the Mets, no one else will sign a decent free agent for next year. I hate both the Yanks and the Mets. I also want to see the Red Sox swept in the first round. BTW, I hate the Cubs, too. Their fans are the most obnoxious people on Earth. So I guess I’m rooting for the Dodgers and Rays in the playoffs. I would be rooting for the Brewers, but what they did to Yost was flat-out evil. So I can’t support them past the Wild Card.

By BL

September 25, 2008 8:19 AM | Link to this

The only thing better than watching the Mets blow it last night was looking at all the AIG signs all over the outfield

By Shaun

September 25, 2008 8:24 AM | Link to this

Per your numbers: Howard 478 plate appearances with runners on. 221 runners in scoring position. That is .46 runner in scoring position when he comes up to bat.

Utley has 436 plate appearances with runners on. 211 runners in scoring position. That is .48 runners in scoring position when he comes up to bat.

Wayne, that’s not what that post said.

478 runners on base during Howard’s plate appearances. Utley had 436 runners on base. 42 more runners for Howard. Not plate appearances with runners on.

Howard has 221 plate appearances with runners in scoring position to Utley’s 211 plate appearances.

That was through Tuesday, though.

By Shaun

September 25, 2008 8:32 AM | Link to this

Dude, it’s all good. You think Pat Burrell is a better MVP candidate than Ryan Howard, or more valuable to the Phillies, whether those who watch the Phillies and cover the Phillies know it or not. That’s fine. It really is. It means nothing to me, just a healthy discussion that’s long since become a dead horse you’re beating with a big VORP stick.

That’s not what I’m saying. I’m saying Burrell is reasonably close to Howard in value. NOT that Burrell is just as valuable or more valuable. Just that Burrell is reasonably close and therefore not the Phillies most valuable player.

The Phillies most valuable player is clearly Chase Utley. This SHOULD be obvious to anyone who covers the Phillies. He gets on base more than any Philly. He’s very close to the team lead in slugging and total bases. He’s a better baserunner than any other Philly reasonably close to him in on-base or slugging ability. He plays better defense.

By Shaun

September 25, 2008 8:49 AM | Link to this

Again, you fail to watch the game(s), use your eyes and judge players (like the old scouts used to - and many still do), based on how they look, what approach they use, and what their demeanor and body language tell us, when they have opportunities to help their team win.

You’re right. I never ever watch games, since you are with me all the time, right?

Hey, I rely on something called evidence. Not just selective memory.

I actually dig into the evidence that tells me Howard was hitting .183/.289/.396 through May 20 and that if he had hit better from Opening Day to May 20, maybe the Phillies would be battling the Cubs for best record in the league. I actually dig into the evidence that tells me Chase Utley has had clearly the better 2008 season and is the player who has done more to contribute to the Phillies winning.

I wish someone, since everyone seems so much wiser than I, would tell me what I have to gain by arguing that Chase Utley is the Phillies MVP and that Ryan Howard is not. I’m not a Phillies fan. I could care less about the Phillies. I’m a life-long Atlantan. I don’t gain anything if Utley is the Phillies MVP, that I’m aware of. So, please, oh wise ones. Tell me why I am arguing that Utley is more valuable than Howard? Could it be that this is what my convictions (based on strong, irrefutable evidence) tells me? No. Couldn’t be. You all know the true reason. Why don’t you tell me? You obviously know better than me what I would have to gain and why I would argue the point so strongly. So go ahead and please tell me.

By David O'Brien

September 25, 2008 9:01 AM | Link to this

Good couple of nights at the ‘yard for the Bravos, for sure. Bowman and I were talking about it after the game. I said how these games are relatively meaningless in the big baseball picture, but winning a couple of series against contenders sure has lifted spirits around the Braves. More importantly, the play of Kelly Johnson and a couple others has given the Braves some reason for optimism….

Getting out of Philly just before the storms arrive, apparently. Good deal. Now if my eardrums don’t burst on my two ascents/descents today from being sick as a dog, I’ll be relaxing in Houston by late afternoon. After I write a story on Kelly Johnson and a preview box for the Astros series, which I hope to do while we’re up in the air…

In the interim, gotta catch a flight to Atlanta at 10:20, connecting to Houston (only way to do it on Delta).

By Captain Kirk

September 25, 2008 9:04 AM | Link to this

Scotty, VORP me up. There is no intelligent life in this blog, save for this hideous Shaun creature.

By David O'Brien

September 25, 2008 9:08 AM | Link to this

Eware, I don’t have the new Kings of Leon yet. Been up in Philly working since it came out, but I’m gonna try to stop somewhere in Houston and buy it because I’ll have a rental car there. Love the new CDs by Steve Wynne “Crossing Dragon Bridge”), Calexico (“Carried to Dust”) and Dead Confederate (“Wrecking Ball”).

And yes, new Metallica rawwks. Good for working out or driving in traffic. Or while destroying something.

By Shaun

September 25, 2008 9:16 AM | Link to this

Captain Kirk, others, again, obviously you all are much wiser than I. Since you all are, you can tell me all the problems with VORP and other such metrics and why they should be completely ignored and degraded. Since obviously I’m the idiot, etc., you know more than me why VORP and such stats need to be degraded as they are on this blog. I’m asking for some wisdom here.

By McFann ;Ô;

September 25, 2008 9:25 AM | Link to this

Greg—

Can’t wait to get the pictures! Thanks! Take your time, I appreciate it!

AdirondackDave, N Nine—

The record for most doubles in a season by a catcher is 47 by Pudge in ‘96. The National League record is 42, held by Terry Kennedy and now BMac. Would be a beautiful thing if he got one more, to take soul possession of first place in the NL.

By David O'Brien

September 25, 2008 9:26 AM | Link to this

McCann is now tied for sixth in the NL with 42 doubles, tied with Pujols, David Wright, and Chris Young. Four off the league lead.

By Hoosier Aaron

September 25, 2008 9:28 AM | Link to this

With the Tigers likely to finish in last place - when many thought they’d win the World Series - I can hear those in Detroit saying, “We’ve gotta make some changes”.

We have a “relationship” with the Tigers - in terms of making deals.

I wouldn’t be surprised at all to see a “Block-buster” deal between the Bravos & Tigers over the winter.

Before all that though - let’s win a Batting Title and kick the Astros.

By David O'Brien

September 25, 2008 9:34 AM | Link to this

Brian, saw your post from last night. Let me assure you I have never, under any circumstances, filed a post under any screen name except my actual name. Wish I could claim a few of the posts you attributed to me; one or two were actually clever. But no, that was not me.

By David O'Brien

September 25, 2008 9:37 AM | Link to this

N8, I concur with the last graph of your 1:29 a.m. post. If there is a statistic that infers Pat Burrel is more valuable than Ryan Howard, that is not a statistic I’m interested in knowing about. Period. Well said.

By McFann ;Ô;

September 25, 2008 9:41 AM | Link to this

gotigers72 Funny, but in the past 2 or 3 years, McCann has been run over 3 times

Maybe I missed something—and this is no disrespect to you—but McCann’s only had 2 major collisions: May 20, 2006—Eric Byrnes of the D-Backs sprained McCann’s left ankle, and it’s bothered him since; and July 27, 2008—the Reaper thought he was playing football.

I would have liked to see that Braves give the Reaper “a free shave”, but breaking his hitting streak, catching him stealing, ticking him off last night, winning the series in Filly, and McCann’s second career 3-double game pretty much sufficed.

(OK—McCann did sorta have a collision with Utley: That was in the same game that the Reaper got Mac; Utley threw his elbow at BMac and hit him in the side of the head…)

DOB McCann is now tied for sixth in the NL with 42 doubles, tied with Pujols, David Wright, and Chris Young. Four off the league lead.

Lovin’ it!

By McFann ;Ô;

September 25, 2008 9:44 AM | Link to this

BTW—McCann’s second double last night (#41) gave him 120 career doubles.

Now, without the use of a calculator, that means he’s got 121 career doubles!

; )

By Steve from OH

September 25, 2008 9:46 AM | Link to this

Coach, Aramis Ramirez has never won an MVP, Silver Slugger, or Gold glove. Neither has Juan Rivera, your boy who you would love to have over Pat Burrell. Or how about Jason Bay? What a sucky ballplayer. I’m glad we didn’t get him, because he never won a single gold glove.

Coach, please explain to me why statistics, which are a reasonably precise to very precise measure of perfromance, are better than subjective things like gold gloves and MVP’s. I’m dying to hear your twisted logic. But wait, I’m sure you’re going to say that I’ve never played baseball (not true), or that your little league coaching experience makes you an expert on modern statistical analysis, correct?

Here’s the challenge: prove to me that EqA and VORP are bad stats (anyone). Please. I’m always looking for the best evidence possible. If you’ve got it, which I’m sure you don’t, show it. Well, coach? I’m waiting.

DOB, I was only trying to say that Burrell was close to Howard, not better. I think we’re arguing over very little here, but that’s cool. Always love the good baseball talk.

By Shaun

September 25, 2008 9:49 AM | Link to this

DOB and N8, again, there is nothing that infers Burrell is more valuable than Howard. Again, that was never ever the argument. The argument is Burrell is somewhat close in value to Howard and therefore neither one is the Phillies MVP.

Again, it’s obviously Chase Utley. Again, that should be clear to anyone who watched the Phillies all year and pays attention to actual evidence. Anyone who watched Howard struggle through almost the entire first two months of the season. Anyone who has actually seen Utley reach base more often than any Philly. Anyone who has actually seen Utley slug and gain almost as many total bases as any other Philly. Anyone who has actually seen that Utley has stolen more bases and been successful more often than other Phillies who have posted impressive numbers at the plate. Anyone who has actually seen that Utley is a better defensive player than other Phillies who have posted impressive numbers at the plate.

By Shaun

September 25, 2008 9:55 AM | Link to this

The argument that Burrell and Howard are somewhat close in value was just an illustration to show that Howard is clearly not the most valuable Phillies player.

I’m not interested in a statistic that infers I’m not a millionaire. But unfortunately that’s not reality.

By Brad

September 25, 2008 10:03 AM | Link to this

Julian Tavarez Carmen is no child. He is 32 years old and has been in the majors for over eleven years now. There is a long list of Tavarez’ former teams, most of whom grew weary of him for some very good reasons. He has a considerable history of disciplinary actions having been taken against him, many of which involve throwing at opposing hitters.

Let’s look back on some specific, selected actions from the past. Perhaps MLB and its disciplinarian Bob Watson are repeatedly and unfairly picking on an innocent, misunderstood man or more possibly, Tavarez is a notorious and repeated headhunter and nut case.

So, you decide for yourself. Is the man is cuddly, crazy or a cheat? Or, is he all three?

Cuddly – 1995 20-year old Julian Tavarez first appeared in 1993 and his big break on the major league scene came as the fireballing hurler played a key role for the 1995 American League Champion Cleveland Indians. The Dominican captured the fancy of America because the only English word he knew was “chicken”. Soon enough, Tavarez learned the language so well that he would conduct interviews himself.

Crazy - 1996 It didn’t take long for things to go wrong. Tavarez apparently selected the wrong role model in Cleveland. In 1996, defending teammate and one of the most disciplined players ever, Albert Belle, led Tavarez to his first suspension. It was for body-slamming an umpire. Of course, from Julian’s perspective, it was an unfortunate accident.

Belle was angry at getting hit by a pitch. He took it out via a forearm to Milwaukee Brewers’ second baseman Fernando Vina’s face. After Belle and Tavarez spoke between innings, Tavarez threw behind Brewers’ catcher Mike Matheny, who charged the mound.

In the melee that followed, umpire Joe Brinkman grabbed Tavarez from behind and was thrown to the turf. Tavarez insisted he didn’t know it was an ump, but still served five games.

Crazy – 1998 By now, Tavarez had been shipped to the San Francisco Giants. In a September, 1998 game, Tavarez took exception to ball four call by throwing his glove to the turf and yelling at the home plate umpire. He flung his cap toward home plate and headed toward the ump, wildly gesturing. Manager Dusty Baker had to pull Tavarez away from his chest-to-chest bumping of the ump, Sam Holbrook. A three-game suspension ensued.

Crazy – 1999 After allowing six runs in an outing against Oakland, Tavarez drilled catcher Mike Macfarlane in the back with a pitch. As Macfarlane was lying on the ground in pain, Tavarez stared down A’s manager Art Howe until Baker had to come out and remove Tavarez from the game.

Crazy - 2001 Tavarez had been waived by the Giants and passed through Colorado before moving on to the Cubs. He quickly fit right in, fighting with Giant Russ Davis, and inciting a bench-clearing brawl - during a spring training game! Tavarez took a flying kick at Davis, who had charged the mound after taking exception to what he felt was Tavarez taunting him after a strikeout. Five more games on the pines for Julian.

Crazy – 2001 Before Tavarez could serve the above suspension, his Cubs team had an April series in San Francisco. The Giants fans gave him a hard time and instead of turning the other cheek, Tavarez yelled back. Among his on-the-record comments about his former teams’ fans was a John Rocker-esque declaration that “they are a bunch of a-holes and f*.” Bud Selig called the comments “reprehensible”. Tavarez justified it in his mind by complaining that the fans threw eggs at him. The only additional punishment meted out was that Tavarez was ordered to undergo sensitivity training.

Cuddly – 2001 On the bench in Chi-town, Tavarez poured rubbing alcohol onto a towel, which he wiped on his head in an apparent attempt to remain cool. However, he may have gone too far when he slipped behind no-nonsense manager Don Baylor and shoved the smelly towel under Baylor’s nose. Tavarez was soon traded to Florida.

Cuddly – 2002 In a close game while pitching for the Marlins, Tavarez stepped into the batters box against Colorado’s Mike Hampton. Oddly, the right-hander came up as a left-handed hitter. He swung and missed at the first pitch before moving to the other side of the plate, from where he promptly blooped an RBI single.

Crazy – 2003 Now with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Tavarez came out of the bullpen to escalate a fight that was in the process of cooling off between Tampa Bay’s Marlon Anderson and Tavarez’ teammate Jason Kendall. Tavarez admitted to throwing punches, but accused an unidentified Tampa player of choking him from behind. Seems like it is a bad idea to come up behind him. A three-game suspension ensued.

Crazy – 2003 Still angry over an incident where they feared a Tavarez pitch had broken the arm of first baseman J.T. Snow, Giants manager Felipe Alou mentioned what to that point had been an unspoken assumption – that Tavarez has a history of beaning ex-teammates.

Crazy – 2003 After Tavarez hit him with a pitch, Atlanta Braves outfielder Gary Sheffield glared while slowly walking to first. He carried his bat the entire 90 feet and only gave it up upon reaching the first base bag.

Cheat - 2003 In a signal of problems to come, later that season, Alou strongly intimated that he knew that Tavarez was wearing a cap with pine tar on it. Alou did not publicly press the matter, however.

Cheat – 2004 Despite repeated warnings about his practice of keeping pine tar on his cap, Tavarez continued to flaunt the rules – until Lloyd McClendon’s Pittsburgh Pirates called him on it. Despite Tavarez having thrown the evidence, his dirty cap, into the stands, he was served with a ten-game suspension handed down by Watson.

Crazy – 2004 In the NLCS, Tavarez is quoted as saying the Astros aren’t that special and then fired a pitch up near Jeff Bagwell’s head. That generated a bench clearing and a fine for Tavarez. In a childish fit of rage, Tavarez breaks his hand on a bullpen phone, damaging his team’s World Series aspirations.

I’ve said it before and I will say it again. In my book, Julian Tavarez doesn’t deserve to be in this league.period!

By Lennie G

September 25, 2008 10:06 AM | Link to this

Man, I got a kick out of the Tavares-Victorino episode last night. I kept waiting for Tavares to whip out the Freddie Kreuger finger blades and get medieval on Victorino…..

By tkg

September 25, 2008 10:12 AM | Link to this

Well said on Tavarez, Brad. I can’t believe Braves signed him. Was there not a less-volatile innings eater available? That guy is a head case.

By DAP

September 25, 2008 10:21 AM | Link to this

tavaras came to atlanta to give some relief to our overused bullpen. i think he should only be that. hes a pretty good pitcher, but character is important to me, and he has a history of not having a good one.

By Hoosier Aaron

September 25, 2008 10:23 AM | Link to this

Brad - That is classic.

Can you do one for Milton Bradley - and include Winter Ball?

By Shaun

September 25, 2008 10:24 AM | Link to this

Here’s the challenge: prove to me that EqA and VORP are bad stats (anyone). Please. I’m always looking for the best evidence possible.

Steve, ain’t going to happen. They’d rather just degrade such stats without truly knowing why they deserve to be degraded.

They’d rather not actually do any work into trying to understand just a little bit the stats that lots of front office people around the game use, even though they seem to be passionate baseball fanatics or make a living reporting on baseball.

But I suppose it happens everywhere. That’s the scary part. These are the same people running companies we work for, enforcing our laws, voting in our elections, teaching our children. Yet they are degrading something that they won’t even attempt to understand and they won’t even look into why many front offices rely on such stats or rely on the people who came up with these stats. It’s scary what people will or will not accept without even doing any research.

By Carolina Gent

September 25, 2008 10:33 AM | Link to this

Borrowed from myself from the previous blog…

I would really like to see Hampton come back next year, as a #3 or #4. Right now, I don’t see a #1 from the current staff. Derek Lowe sounds about right here, thought I’ve read reports that scouts say he’s better suited as a #2. JJ could be a #2 or #3, Hampton a #3 or #4, and possibly Glavine at a #4 if he makes it back.

Hampton seems to be getting a little stronger each time out. However, I’d only bring him back if he’d take one of those incentive-based contracts based on IP or appearances or something like that. Maybe signed for one guaranteed year then a mutual option for the 2nd year based on the incentives. I think we have some young pitching talent in the system, but they’re a year or so away from being ready for the majors.

By richbrave

September 25, 2008 10:33 AM | Link to this

McFANN:

McCANN cann hit six more in three games at the rate he’s going. Go for the gold with the brass ring (NL record) already on your finger.

By Shaun

September 25, 2008 10:35 AM | Link to this

Steve, I could understand if these stats were fringe stats that only a few people look at. But these are stats that actual baseball teams rely on or, at the very least, are stats that people who work for baseball teams came up with. But I suppose that doesn’t matter to a lot of folks on here. They just refuse to understand them and degrade them for some reason.

By Thrillhouse44

September 25, 2008 10:36 AM | Link to this

I agree, DAP. Let Tavarez finish up what he came to do. Then good ridance. I had always hoped Soriano would be our intimidator, but it’s tough to do that from the DL.

I agree with Manuel’s quote here about the incident: “If I had my way, I’d form a big circle and see who wants to fight,” Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said. “I’ve seen that before and nobody fights.”

By Nate

September 25, 2008 10:36 AM | Link to this

I would like to go on record to say that I think the Braves should re-sign Hampton to an incentive rich contract. Jurrjens is the only sure thing in the rotation right now. Even if the Braves acquire two guys through trade or free agency that leaves two more spots in the rotation. Smoltz will come back and pitch out of the pen. That leaves Campillo, Glavine, Hampton, and whoever else they can scrape up in consideration for the last two spots. Of all these guys Hampton is the one with most upside.

By hydee

September 25, 2008 10:37 AM | Link to this

Brad Are you seriously taking credit for that?? I’ve read that a million times before, sorry plagiarism doesn’t show very good character on your part.

By richbrave

September 25, 2008 10:47 AM | Link to this

DOB and I were indirectly alluding to the TAVARES mind-set last night. I wasn’t watching or listening while JULIAN was in the game. DAVE was posting about the TAVARAS-VICTORINO dust-up. I was posting about the fact that TAVARAS is best under pressure with men on. In fact it seems to me that when JT’s “on”, he walks one with none on and allows one hit then proceeds to get the side out without damage. I would say the two takes dove-tail nicely although we each were reaching common ground from different directions.

Today BRAD listed a litany of TAVARAS’ ML transgressions of temper. I think BC and the management knew EXACTLY what they were getting in JULIAN and simply wanted some relief for the bull-pen plus some fire on the field. A mentor of ‘tude if you will for the young guys.

By richbrave

September 25, 2008 10:52 AM | Link to this

SHAUN:

Nothing wrong with stats. Nothing wrong with a “feel” or sensability and demeanor on and off the field. Put the two together and voila, you have the game of baseball.

By DAP

September 25, 2008 10:53 AM | Link to this

shaun That’s the scary part. These are the same people running companies we work for, enforcing our laws, voting in our elections, teaching our children

hey man, love the emotion you are showing this morning. this seems a little over the top though…i laughed, actually. is trusting VORP a requirment for you when voting for someone to hold office? does it really bother you that the folks teaching your kids might not believe in VORP? i dont think it does, but thats how it sounded, and thats funny.

i hope they ask obama and mccain at the debate friday (if they have it) how they feel about VORP and EqA. i really need to know where they stand.

By Media Matters

September 25, 2008 10:58 AM | Link to this

Gee, Brad…

Thanks for the unbiased and objective report on Julian Tavarez. You show great promise as a media personality. I hear CNN has an opening in their news staff…

By DAP

September 25, 2008 11:03 AM | Link to this

also with many “fights” it seems like the guys kinda walk slowly toward each other until someone gets in the way. then, when someone is holding them back they kinda wrestle with them to try and get to the guy they want to “fight”. ive always thought that was funny.

By richbrave

September 25, 2008 11:03 AM | Link to this

Listening to DAN PATRICK this morning interviewing someone from SI (didn’t catch the name).

PATRICK - ” How would you like to have worked for LEHMAN and be a METS fan about now.?”

SI - PAUSE……U-u—u-H….

PRICELESS!!!!

ANDERS, METMAN - LEHMAN or MORGAN STANLEY present or former employees???? That could explain the silence on this blog. A little empathy rather than antipathy BRAVES fans. LEHMAN employees today, your job or your life savings tomorrow.

Of course, there’s the other explanation - cowardice. In which case - na-a-na-ni-na-na METS fans.!!!! In your face.

By Shaun

September 25, 2008 11:09 AM | Link to this

DAP, no. It bothers me that folks who seem to be passionate and desire to be knowledgeable about something or make a living covering something simply degrade an important aspect of that something.

If they are that careless with something they seem to be passionate about and seem to want to know more about, what do they do in the areas of their lives that are really important?

I would think that someone passionate about the game or someone who covers the game would actually be a little curious about stats that front offices care about. These are not stats that only a couple of guys living under a bridge care about. These are stats that are used within the industry. Yet, they are degraded with regularity on this blog without any understanding or research into why these stats are used within the industry. And that’s what scares me. People degrading something without fully knowing what they are degrading or why or knowing whether or not it deserves degradation. They just seem to want to accept or reject what convention tells them to or what the BBWAA tells them to or what their group of baseball fans tells them.

I would think that people would have a little more curiosity. Maybe think, “What are these stats that lots of successful front offices are using? What do they mean? Are these stats any better than others? Maybe they are worthless, but I want to find out why so many front offices rely on them so much.” But maybe it’s asking too much for people to be curious about things they seem to be passionate about or make a living in.

By McFann ;Ô;

September 25, 2008 11:10 AM | Link to this

Richbrave Go for the gold with the brass ring (NL record) already on your finger.

That would be sweet! Hey, one more and the NL record is all his! (Sorry, Terry!)

That’d be really cool if all he hit from here on out were doubles, but I won’t hold my breath…you know, just in case he doesn’t play all three remaining games…

; )

(Don’t tell Joe Simpson, but last night was McCann 131 start, a new career-high…)

By Renegator

September 25, 2008 11:15 AM | Link to this

Interesting read

Linked here

By McFann ;Ô;

September 25, 2008 11:18 AM | Link to this

DAP—

I think it’s funny, too!

By Braveheart

September 25, 2008 11:23 AM | Link to this

Brad,

“You said it man. Nobody effs with The Julian.”

You also must not have heard what The Julian did on the way home from the game last Saturday night. The Julian is Charles Bronson. If you touch a woman, child or cop when The Julian is patrolling the streets, The Julian will not just drive by.

And then there’s this from Gordon Edes:

While talking to Julian Tavarez the other day about his impoverished upbringing in the Dominican — he never went to school, sold newspapers, cleaned shoes and helped his dad, a construction worker — Tavarez sheepishly admitted he had an odd ambition as a kid. If he couldn’t be a baseball player, he said, he thought he might have a future as an adult movie star. We’re not talking about aspiring to be the next Gary Cooper, either. The way Julian explained it, he was exposed to a lot of that stuff as a kid, and saw it as a way to a better life. Can’t say I pursued that narrative line…but another unexpected dimension to quite a character.

The Julian is a night owl; maybe a vampire. Headhunter on the diamond. Charles Bronson on the streets. Freddy Krueger in your nightmares. John Holmes in his dreams.

By DAP

September 25, 2008 11:23 AM | Link to this

shaun i was just kidding, man. i knew what you meant.

again, love the emotion.

im not taking sides on this one, but i wanted to say one thing. you are knoledgable about baseball and stats and different measures people use to value players, but dont forget there are others on this blog who know alot too. one guy you are arguing with is DOB, who works closley with the braves…dont you think he might know what stats they value?

for all i know, shaun, you work in the braves front office. i dont think you do, but you could, and thats fine. but while there are plenty of folks who value VORP, and many other stats, for good reasons according to them, dont you think there might be some people who dont value it, and also have good reasons?

i dont know, because i know what VORP is, but i dont understand it fully nor do i pretend to, but its not like its universally accepted as the best stat ever, so there maybe some people who do understand it who dont buy it, even though you do.

am i doing a bad job of staying out of it? anyways, im doing a bill cosby…i have no opinion.

By Hoosier Aaron

September 25, 2008 11:36 AM | Link to this

Someone once said, “Stats are like bikinis - they show a lot but not everything.”

I don’t know enough about VORP and such stats to comment too much but I do know -

When Andruw Jones was in centerfield - our pitchers had to be pretty happy when the ball was traveling toward CF. How many points were shaved off the ERA because they had EJ behind them and how do you work that into a stat?

How about when Maddux would tell Chipper to take two steps to his left because the hitter was going to hit it right to him? Was Chipper’s range suddenly better because Maddux was a genius?

Stats are what they are?

Honestly - if you are a ML manager - do you really care your clean-up hitter strikes out 200 times if he’s driving in 145 runs?

I would much rather have Frenchy driving in 100 runs and hacking like a maniac than “being selective” and driving in 65 or whatever.

In the end - the only stat that matters (in the Major Leagues) is wins.

Unless of course you are Chipper and you about about to win the Batting Title - then BA is pretty important.

By richbrave

September 25, 2008 11:37 AM | Link to this

BRAVEHEART:

fALL DOWN FUNNY POST MAN. kruger AND holmes. wHEW!!!

By Stat Degrader

September 25, 2008 11:48 AM | Link to this

VORP is not degraded - but it IS only one piece of the total puzzle when evaluating a players “value”.

Multi - dimensional people realize this.

What scares ME is that some people don’t. These people could be the ones who are actually running things right now or raising their” families”….hmmm…could explain a lot…

By McFann ;Ô;

September 25, 2008 11:55 AM | Link to this

Doesn’t this look very nice?

Oh yeah…Top of the chart!!

By jefferyvan

September 25, 2008 11:56 AM | Link to this

There is no way even the hardiest naysayers can take Bobby’s managing this past week away from him or the Braves; throwing Chipper in as PH in the 5th last night was awesome. These Braves have held their own vrs. 3 really good clubs during the ast series’ with the limited resources they have and it was really , really impressive and made this Braves fan proud and excited. We have a really good manager.And the team is showing grit & determination and playing good baseball.I only wish I could have been in Philly last night to hear the collective gasp when that bad right shoulder lifted that ball outta the park.

By DAP

September 25, 2008 12:04 PM | Link to this

what worries me is that there are people out there who dont think skittles are the best non-chocolate candy ever invented.

i lay awake at night scared out of my mind that people who think air heads, or nerds are better than skittles could be making decisions for us. they could be running our companies, teaching our kids, stocking our shelves at the super market!

this is a frightening world.

By Shaun

September 25, 2008 12:07 PM | Link to this

DAP, I guess I just don’t understand why people who are going to criticize stats like VORP or Win Shares or OPS+ or EqA or whatever can’t do a two minute Google search to find out just a tiny bit about it. I mean, such stats are widely used, whether people like it or not.

If you’re not curious, you’re not curious. But don’t degrade certain stats that you’re not even curious enough to look into.

But it kind of concerns me that people presumably passionate about something lack a curiosity about that something. If you lack that curiosity, I wonder what I can sell you or dupe you into.

By Brian

September 25, 2008 12:09 PM | Link to this

DOB- As you probably knew, I was being sarcastic about you being the “shrink”. Funny post you did on the VORP, EqA guys!! Real quick, I have to tell you this. Someone wrote back about that guy who’s always at the Braves games near the visitors dugout and he/she knew the guy! WEIRD! I know, who cares!

By ncscoots

September 25, 2008 12:16 PM | Link to this

Shaun, you gotta chill, man, LOL. No one here is vilifying your wife or your mama (at that, you CAN get heated), just poking a little fun. And not even at the stats. Dude, we’re joshing with YOU, not VORP or EqA, ‘cause most folks here know we can get a rise out of you when we do. That’s all.

Consider those unmoved by sabermetrics as Neanderthal, if you like, and laugh at them as obtuse, if you desire. But missionary work among the pagans has always been an ultimately unfulfilling task. You’re bound to have better things to do than that.

Kiss your wife, call your mama, and spit on the rest, as you move forward, I say. Always works for me.

By Shaun

September 25, 2008 12:19 PM | Link to this

DAP, no one is saying VORP or EqA are perfect, all-encompassing stats or anything like that. In fact, I’ve posted several times reasons why Utley is a better MVP candidate than Ryan Howard without using any stats that are “advanced.” I pointed to things like times on base and total bases and slugging and defense and steals and steal percentage. And apparently there are still people who have seen the Phillies play virtually everyday and don’t realize these things about Utley and Howard.

By Lew

September 25, 2008 12:26 PM | Link to this

I’m going to contribute one small item to this entire ridiculous discussion of Utley vs. Howard for the Phillies’ MVP (though why a Braves’ fan should care is beyond me). Anyway, one thing and then I’ll sit back and watch Shaun foam at the mouth (metaphorically, anyway).

Someone earlier mentioned that the players’ 2 nd half of the season weighs more heavily on who will win the award. There is, to my way of thinking, a good reason for this. A players’ performance during crunch time, I feel, is what separates the Champs from the also rans.

Look at Utley compared to Howard.

1st Half-Utley .297 BA, 22HR, 65 RBI, .384 OBP, .610 SLG.

1st Half Howard-.215 BA, 20HR, 67RBI, .310OBP, .460 SLG.

2nd Half-Utley (current numbers) ..289 BA (-.08), 33 HR (+11), 101 RBI (+36), .378 OBP (-.06), .534 SLG (-.76)

2nd Half Howard (current numbers)- .248BA (+.33), 47 HR (+27), 142 RBI (+75), .337 OBP (+.27), .537 SLG (+.77).

During the second half of the season, the Phillies increased their NL East lead by a game, despite the fact that the Mets played much more inspired baseball the second half, themselves. Just which player actually performed under the pressure of a Pennant Race? Just which player was responsible for more run production the second half? Howard’s 2nd half power numbers were DOUBLE those of Utley (their first half power numbers were quite similar). I’ve got to go with Howard. It’s not even close. Utley may be a great 2B, but he definitely fell off the edge of a cliff during crunch time. More Valuable than Howard? No way. Without Howard’s 2nd half performance, the Phillies would be watching the Mets and Marlins battle it out for the Division instead of being the probable Division winner.

By Shaun's Shrink

September 25, 2008 12:34 PM | Link to this

I pointed to things like times on base and total bases and slugging and defense and steals and steal percentage. And apparently there are still people who have seen the Phillies play virtually everyday and don’t realize these things about Utley and Howard.

Shaun…Shaun …

You have shown little progress in achieving multi - dimensionality…I should definitely increase the dosage…

However…you now seem to have acquired some kind of telepathic ability since you know what these people realize and what they don’t…

Further study will be required..

By Mark

September 25, 2008 12:42 PM | Link to this

Sniper-69, Anders, Metropolitian Man?????? Anybody there?

By Blue Cross Blue Shield of Hampton

September 25, 2008 12:46 PM | Link to this

Am I the only one who sees the similarity of Hampton’s VERY recent past to that of the good old salary drives of the 50’s and 60’s? IF the Atlanta Braves are foolish enough to sign a guy with this history to any kind of a deal and worse than that actually depend upon him for a contribution, well at that point my feelings turn from empathy to disgust. Don’t do it Atlanta. Like every other organization, in what seems to be the past 10 years, you will regret it once again. Fool me once, shame on Mike Hampton. Fool multiple organizations, shame on the organizations.

By Renegator

September 25, 2008 12:49 PM | Link to this

Shaun

Not to get involved in this knock-down, drag-out that you are in right now but the world of baseball is still in love with the homerun.

And the person on any team or in any league (NL vs AL) who has the most homeruns (will also probably lead that team/league in RBIs) will be selected as MVP.

Until the world of baseball falls out of love with the HR (may never happen) you can expect the person with the most HRs (and probably most RBIs) will continue to win MVP awards.

By Shaun

September 25, 2008 12:51 PM | Link to this

Lew, so first half shouldn’t carry as much weight as the second half? So building a big lead and cruising the rest of the way doesn’t mean anything because a team didn’t play better at “crunch time”?

What if Howard had put up better numbers in the first half? It’s quite possible the Phillies would be running away with the NL East. But I suppose that is meaningless.

Also, Utley’s on-base was much better than Howard’s in both halves. His slugging was much better in the first half and is almost identical in the second half.

And apparently you missed the post last night about 478 runners on when Howard has come up to 439 when Utley comes up. 39 more runners on for Howard. Howard has hit with 257 RISP while Utley has hit with 242. That doesn’t affect RBI totals?

What is entirely ridiculous is that Howard is likely to get more MVP consideration than Utley.

By McFann ;Ô;

September 25, 2008 12:57 PM | Link to this

Brian—

You got that right!

And I gotta say, the stuff I’ve been reading in the ChopTalks Bruce sent me has made me like him even more (didn’t think that was possible, did you? ; ) )

By nolie

September 25, 2008 12:58 PM | Link to this

I would think that someone passionate about the game or someone who covers the game would actually be a little curious about stats that front offices care about. These are not stats that only a couple of guys living under a bridge care about. These are stats that are used within the industry.Shaun

I gotta disagree with that some, Shaun. There are probably an GM or three who are using stuff like VORP,PECOTA,WinShare and EqA, but most of them are not. Probably a good number of them have no real knowledge of them either. At this point it’s likely that some still don’t even have much regard for OPS and such. Been an uphill battle just to get those accepted by the baseball heirarchy. EqA looks promising, but there are actually plenty of people who do stats who are skeptical of VORP and WinShares etc. Some of those actually add a smidgeon of subjectivity back into what should be an entirely objective approach. It’s going to take years(if at all) for most fans to accept these latest metrics, just like it took decades to get OBP and OPS established-and as you must be able to tell from this board there are still a lot who don’t even accept them as germane. Getting all frustrated about it ain’t really helping you or convincing the statistical luddites who are true Twainish skeptics.

By DAP

September 25, 2008 1:06 PM | Link to this

to change the subject: bobby abreu is having a very good year, and is going to be a free agent. hes hitting about .300 with 20 homers, 99 RBIs, and 20 steals. he hits left handed, but his average vs. lefties and rightes is just about identical. i think we should consider abreu for LF in 2009.

By Shaun

September 25, 2008 1:12 PM | Link to this

Renegator, I don’t know what things are on the minds of the MVP voters. You are probably right that RBI are overvalued by the voters. Justin Morneau probably has an excellent shot to win the AL MVP simply because he has come to the plate this year with 542 runners on base and in turn leads the AL with 129 RBI. Fine player and there are worse players who garner MVP support but is he really more valuable than say Grady Sizemore, who has almost identical on base and slugging numbers, steals bases at a great rate and plays great defense in center.

If I had to start a team in 2008 and knew what every player was going to do in 2008 before the season started, Morneau would be up there but I don’t think he’d be the guy I’d value most.

By ncscoots

September 25, 2008 1:13 PM | Link to this

nolie, I thought “missionary work among the pagans” was a pretty good turn, but “statistical luddites who are true Twainish skeptics” beats it hands down. :-) Good one, my man.

By Braveheart

September 25, 2008 1:14 PM | Link to this

I really don’t want to get into this argument but why do people mock the stats of the sabes but turn around and blindly accept and cite virtually meaningless things like quarterback ratings, rpi for college basketball and computer rankings for college football? The stats of the sabes make ten times more sense and are easier to figure out yourself with a legal pad or an excel spreadsheet.

Shaun, I do however think it is terribly wrong of you to belittle folks who love baseball but don’t go nuts for this stuff. The majority of really good fans just read the box scores, standings, stats and game story in the morning. They’re lucky if they get to see more than 300 to 400 innings a year. They just have too many serious things in real life to worry about It doesn’t make them any less of a fan or any less knowledgeable. And sheds absolutely no light on how well they do their jobs or how well they raise their families. In fact, I think it shows that they are more likely to reserve their more serious thinking for the stuff that really matters in their lives. Baseball is not something that really matters in anyone’s life unless one has serious mental/emotional issues.

With that being said, I don’t know how anyone could think Ryan Howard has been more valuable than Chase Utley. That’s absurd.

By nolie

September 25, 2008 1:16 PM | Link to this

Ten thoughts about the free-agent market-Buster Olney, ESPN

Thursday, September 25, 2008

For eight teams and more than 200 players, the season will go on past Sunday. For 22 teams and some 600 players, the season ends on Sunday, which is why there is already lots of underground talk about the offseason to come. Ten early thoughts about the forthcoming free-agent market:

1. There is a growing feeling within the industry that the nation’s economic struggles are going to have a major impact on the decisions of some teams. Some executives and agents believe a lot of teams might shy away from long-term obligations knowing that the disposable income of many of their fans might disappear — and disposable income is what the baseball industry relies upon. More clubs may be apt to cut payroll or hold their budgets in place, rather than spend, because of the fiscal uncertainty. Some executives and agents talk about the upcoming offseason and increasingly sound as if they are coastal residents preparing to batten down for an economic hurricane.

2. As the Giants consider ways to bolster the power in their lineup, GM Brian Sabean can go into the winter knowing that he can probably add a major hammer, if he ever decides to dangle Matt Cain, and two options could be Ryan Howard and Prince Fielder. Each of those sluggers has failed to reach long-term deals with their respective teams, each will see their salary escalate quickly through arbitration, and the Phillies and Brewers would love to add a power arm like Cain. “The Phillies could go out and find somebody to drive in runs in their park in place of Howard,” said an AL general manager. “But in that bandbox, they will always have trouble finding pitching. Cain misses bats; he’d be perfect for them.” And after this season, the Brewers will lose CC Sabathia and Ben Sheets to free agency, at a time when they have emerging position prospects; they can find somebody to play first, but will need an anchor for their rotation, and Cain would serve that purpose.

3. Sabathia can do just about whatever he wants to do. If he wants money, it will be there, from the Yankees. Nobody else will come close to what they can and would offer, in the same way that nobody was ever going to come close to what the Yankees were willing to offer A-Rod last winter. If he wants the money, the Yankees might give him a Johan Santana-type of $137.5 million deal, and if he wants a little more, they wouldn’t let a few bucks stand in the way of a deal with the best free agent.

If he wants to go home to California, he will be able to do that, too — but the guess here is that he would probably have to settle for a deal closer to the range of $90 million to $100 million, a Carlos Zambrano kind of deal, from the Angels, or maybe even less from the Dodgers, who have been burned by their recent free-agent acquisitions.

1. The first guy I’d go after if I were running a big-market team like the Yankees or Mets would be Derek Lowe. He’ll be in demand and expensive, and can probably command the kind of deal that Jason Schmidt got a few years ago from L.A. — three years at $47 million — but he is 35 years old and is not in a position to demand a five- or six-year deal, as is Sabathia.

And while baseball executives are increasingly shying away from thirtysomething free agents, in these first years of steroid testing, Lowe is aging well, and there’s no reason to think this won’t continue. He’s a great athlete, he’s 14-11 with a 3.29 ERA this season, he has a relatively simple and low-maintenance approach built around his nasty sinker (with a 2.59 GB/FB ratio), and he has excellent command (his 3.22 strikeout-to-walk ratio is the best in his years as a starter).

1. The market for starting pitching, in general, is going to be better than expected, with Sabathia and Lowe and maybe A.J. Burnett, and a solid group of second-level guys. Kyle Lohse has had a strong season for the Cardinals, and in the end, will probably be vindicated for not taking the offer from the Philadelphia Phillies last winter. Jon Garland is about to turn 29 and he has shown to be good for 12-18 wins; he’s already posted six different seasons in which he’s won something in that range. Ryan Dempster, a Cy Young candidate, is eligible for free agency, and so is Randy Wolf, who has had a nice season for the Padres and Astros, going 12-12 with a 4.30 ERA, at age 32.

2. The best possible free agent match might be the Cardinals and Brian Fuentes. They have money to spend and a clear need for a lefty reliever and a closer, and Fuentes can be all those things.

3. Earlier this week, Jon Paul Morosi of the Detroit Free Press speculated on a possible trade match between the Red Sox and Tigers of shortstop Julio Lugo for Dontrelle Willis. It makes a whole lot of sense — one team’s problem for another — but with one adjustment: The Red Sox would probably prefer Nate Robertson, who is owed $7 million for next year and $10 million for 2010, over Willis. Robertson may simply have a better chance to rebound than Willis, whose complicated delivery makes his recovery … complicated.

4. You can take this to the bank: The Yankees will offer Bobby Abreu arbitration for 2009 and leave it at that. If he takes it, well, they would have a productive player on a pricey one-year deal; Abreu drove in his 99th run last night, as Tyler Kepner writes within this piece. If he doesn’t accept their arbitration offer and and signs elsewhere, then they’ll get draft-pick compensation. This approach makes all the sense in the world for the Yankees, no matter who the general manager is.

5. The guess here is that the Red Sox will make a solid two-year offer to Jason Varitek, perhaps with some kind of vesting option for a third year — and if Varitek insists on a deal of three or four years, then Boston will move on. The Red Sox love Varitek and everything he does for their pitching staff, but they won’t be pushed far to keep him, in the way that the Yankees were with Jorge Posada.

6. The best multi-year deal reached by any team in the last six months might have been a contract negotiated by the Rays, with reliever Dan Wheeler. Had Wheeler been a free agent, he might have been the most coveted of the second-level guys, those in line behind the likes of Francisco Rodriguez. Wheeler, who turns 31 this winter, has had a good season, serving in multiple roles, and he might have commanded something in the range of four years and $16 million. Instead, the Rays have locked him up for $3.2 million for 2009 and $3.5 million in 2010, with an option of $4 million in 2011.

By Lew

September 25, 2008 1:21 PM | Link to this

Shaun-Howard and Utley put up almost identical run producing numbers in the first half, so in all likelihood, most would consider this a wash (unless its one of the anal stat geeks running rampant who don’t want to admit that run production, NOT OBP is what gives teams the ability to win games-and NO I don’t want to debate this ad nauseum-been there, done that and you won’t see anyone else’s pooint of view).

The second half of the season (known as Crunch Time-when you have to put up or shut up or watch your team fall out of the race-like the Braves), Utley tanked in comparison to his first half stats while Howard strapped on his leotard and carried his team, quite likely to the Playoffs. Had Utley actually performed the second half, the Phillies would have coasted and clinched already. In this instance, YES I would give added weight to the second half. Without Howard, the Phillies would NOT be where they are DESPITE the fact that Utley’s performance has been somewhat disappointing (don’t know how many times I heard the Phillies analysts say so, too).

.

By Plagarism Police

September 25, 2008 1:21 PM | Link to this

Brad - you could have at least posted all of the article.

Tavarez: Cuddly, Cheat or Crazy?

By Brian Walton

Posted Sep 11, 2005

History demonstrates that Julian Tavarez’ beanball delivered to the side of Mike Piazza’s head on Saturday night is not some isolated incident.

Julian Tavarez is probably loving it.

Turning himself into the center of attention of the New York Mets by throwing a pitch into the side of Mike Piazza’s head Saturday night. After all, how dare Piazza hit a home run in his first at-bat back from the disabled list? As a result, Piazza went looking for Tavarez after the game, but had to settle for meeting with Tony La Russa instead.

And yes, Tavarez is probably loving turning himself into the center of attention for adoring Cardinal fans by collecting his 30th hold of the season, second most in all of Major League Baseball, just a few short minutes later.

Well, I don’t love it. The good that is associated with Julian Tavarez seems always to be overshadowed by the bad.

Those who choose to defend Tavarez point out that he is a sinkerball specialist and now and then pitches can and do get away from every hurler.

Those who are concerned only with winning point out that Tavarez is the kind of player who opponents hate, yet you want to have on your side. I don’t buy that, either. That same description could be used for pesky leadoff man David Eckstein, yet he earned that label by his hard play and is respected for it, not despised.

I continue to struggle with accepting the fact that Tavarez is really a Cardinal, despite the uniform he wears. Instead, I view him as a mistake. I can only hope that with his initial two-year contract up at the end of the season, that he does not return to St. Louis in 2006.

I just don’t believe this man deserves to be a Cardinal. And, the recent problems he’s caused are just the tip of a very large iceberg.

Julian Tavarez Carmen is no child. He is 32 years old and has been in the majors for over eleven years now. There is a long list of Tavarez’ former teams, most of whom grew weary of him for some very good reasons. He has a considerable history of disciplinary actions having been taken against him, many of which involve throwing at opposing hitters.

Let’s look back on some specific, selected actions from the past. Perhaps MLB and its disciplinarian Bob Watson are repeatedly and unfairly picking on an innocent, misunderstood man or more possibly, Tavarez is a notorious and repeated headhunter and nut case.

So, you decide for yourself. Is the man is cuddly, crazy or a cheat? Or, is he all three?

Cuddly – 1995 20-year old Julian Tavarez first appeared in 1993 and his big break on the major league scene came as the fireballing hurler played a key role for the 1995 American League Champion Cleveland Indians. The Dominican captured the fancy of America because the only English word he knew was “chicken”. Soon enough, Tavarez learned the language so well that he would conduct interviews himself.

Crazy - 1996 It didn’t take long for things to go wrong. Tavarez apparently selected the wrong role model in Cleveland. In 1996, defending teammate and one of the most disciplined players ever, Albert Belle, led Tavarez to his first suspension. It was for body-slamming an umpire. Of course, from Julian’s perspective, it was an unfortunate accident.

Belle was angry at getting hit by a pitch. He took it out via a forearm to Milwaukee Brewers’ second baseman Fernando Vina’s face. After Belle and Tavarez spoke between innings, Tavarez threw behind Brewers’ catcher Mike Matheny, who charged the mound.

In the melee that followed, umpire Joe Brinkman grabbed Tavarez from behind and was thrown to the turf. Tavarez insisted he didn’t know it was an ump, but still served five games.

Crazy – 1998 By now, Tavarez had been shipped to the San Francisco Giants. In a September, 1998 game, Tavarez took exception to ball four call by throwing his glove to the turf and yelling at the home plate umpire. He flung his cap toward home plate and headed toward the ump, wildly gesturing. Manager Dusty Baker had to pull Tavarez away from his chest-to-chest bumping of the ump, Sam Holbrook. A three-game suspension ensued.

Crazy – 1999 After allowing six runs in an outing against Oakland, Tavarez drilled catcher Mike Macfarlane in the back with a pitch. As Macfarlane was lying on the ground in pain, Tavarez stared down A’s manager Art Howe until Baker had to come out and remove Tavarez from the game.

Crazy - 2001 Tavarez had been waived by the Giants and passed through Colorado before moving on to the Cubs. He quickly fit right in, fighting with Giant Russ Davis, and inciting a bench-clearing brawl - during a spring training game! Tavarez took a flying kick at Davis, who had charged the mound after taking exception to what he felt was Tavarez taunting him after a strikeout. Five more games on the pines for Julian.

Crazy – 2001 Before Tavarez could serve the above suspension, his Cubs team had an April series in San Francisco. The Giants fans gave him a hard time and instead of turning the other cheek, Tavarez yelled back. Among his on-the-record comments about his former teams’ fans was a John Rocker-esque declaration that “they are a bunch of a-holes and f*.” Bud Selig called the comments “reprehensible”. Tavarez justified it in his mind by complaining that the fans threw eggs at him. The only additional punishment meted out was that Tavarez was ordered to undergo sensitivity training.

Cuddly – 2001 On the bench in Chi-town, Tavarez poured rubbing alcohol onto a towel, which he wiped on his head in an apparent attempt to remain cool. However, he may have gone too far when he slipped behind no-nonsense manager Don Baylor and shoved the smelly towel under Baylor’s nose. Tavarez was soon traded to Florida.

Cuddly – 2002 In a close game while pitching for the Marlins, Tavarez stepped into the batters box against Colorado’s Mike Hampton. Oddly, the right-hander came up as a left-handed hitter. He swung and missed at the first pitch before moving to the other side of the plate, from where he promptly blooped an RBI single.

Crazy – 2003 Now with the Pittsburgh Pirates, Tavarez came out of the bullpen to escalate a fight that was in the process of cooling off between Tampa Bay’s Marlon Anderson and Tavarez’ teammate Jason Kendall. Tavarez admitted to throwing punches, but accused an unidentified Tampa player of choking him from behind. Seems like it is a bad idea to come up behind him. A three-game suspension ensued.

Crazy – 2003 Still angry over an incident where they feared a Tavarez pitch had broken the arm of first baseman J.T. Snow, Giants manager Felipe Alou mentioned what to that point had been an unspoken assumption – that Tavarez has a history of beaning ex-teammates.

Crazy – 2003 After Tavarez hit him with a pitch, Atlanta Braves outfielder Gary Sheffield glared while slowly walking to first. He carried his bat the entire 90 feet and only gave it up upon reaching the first base bag.

Cheat - 2003 In a signal of problems to come, later that season, Alou strongly intimated that he knew that Tavarez was wearing a cap with pine tar on it. Alou did not publicly press the matter, however.

Cheat – 2004 Despite repeated warnings about his practice of keeping pine tar on his cap, Tavarez continued to flaunt the rules – until Lloyd McClendon’s Pittsburgh Pirates called him on it. Despite Tavarez having thrown the evidence, his dirty cap, into the stands, he was served with a ten-game suspension handed down by Watson.

Crazy – 2004 In the NLCS, Tavarez is quoted as saying the Astros aren’t that special and then fired a pitch up near Jeff Bagwell’s head. That generated a bench clearing and a fine for Tavarez. In a childish fit of rage, Tavarez breaks his hand on a bullpen phone, damaging his team’s World Series aspirations.

In closing It remains to be seen what the ramifications of Tavarez’ most recent actions will be in terms of his relationship with his manager, teammates and the Mets, let alone Watson and the MLB disciplinarians. But it is clear that with Tavarez, nothing will change as a result.

Upon signing with the Cardinals in the 2003-2004 off-season, Tavarez spoke fondly of his time in Pittsburgh. He made it clear he preferred to stay there, but the Cardinals offered twice the salary. If it were up to me, I’d do everything possible to make sure he takes a nice, big, fat offer to return there in 2006.

Being quietly banished from St. Louis can happen. Just ask Steve Kline.

I’ve said it before and I will say it again. In my book, Julian Tavarez doesn’t deserve to be a Cardinal and never has.

Brian Walton can be reached via email at brwalton@earthlink.net.

By Navigator

September 25, 2008 1:34 PM | Link to this

I FIRE COX AFTER THE LAST GAME. I can’t believe that he’s give Hampton a show case to get another contract. Are you kidding me? He should pitch for the minimum if the Braves keep him, after taking millions for years of nothing. Cox should have been showcasing the younger pitchers to get them some experience. He never understands his priorities, helping old guys rather than trying to develop the future of the team. FIRE HIM BRAVES, AND FIRE HIM SOON!!

By StingerSplash

September 25, 2008 1:37 PM | Link to this

I said it when the Braves got Tavarez and I’ll say it again. He’s the guy you hate when he’s on someone else’s team but love when he’s on your side. The dude absolutely will take the ball anytime, any situation, anywhere. And he will stand up for his team/teammates anywhere, anytime. I can’t count the number of years I hated that guy until … he joined the Red Sox, and then I understood the mad genius that is Julian Tavarez. DOB, what did the other Braves think of what Tavarez did last night (if you have posted earlier, my apologies, but a bottle of port in the middle of the day tends to make me Mr. Short Attention Span. Selah.)

By BA

September 25, 2008 1:40 PM | Link to this

Tavarez didn’t “deserve” to be a cardinal?! This IS the team with the alchoholic manager that was so wasted he passed out while AT A RED LIGHT, driving his car? Seems like Tavarez would have been the least of their concerns.

By Shaun

September 25, 2008 1:42 PM | Link to this

Braveheart, I’m honestly not trying to belittle anyone except maybe those who are critical of certain things without even having the curiosity to figure out if they are worth criticizing.

And I understand it’s just baseball. The scary part for me is that they will blindly criticize something without any curiosity regarding what it means. Any kind of lack of curiosity is somewhat concerning. I know we are only discussing baseball, but what else do some folks criticize with a total lack curiosity?

By Lew

September 25, 2008 2:11 PM | Link to this

Navigator-Your rant is flawed on several levels, though I doubt you’ll see the logic in what I have to say.

First, the Braves’ pitching has been decimated from injuries, to the point where cannon fodder and warm bodies have been recruited and used to get through a season where we have nowhere to go. Why not use Hampton (he’s under contract and available for the first time in 3 years)? At the very least, he’s another warm body you’re playing anyway. At the best, he’s had seven of eight quality starts in recent days-not bad by ANYONE’S criteria. Not to mention, considering how much pitching we will need to acquire in 09, it would be quite reasonable to see what the Often Injured Hampton has left. Maybe WE could use him next year.

As for the young guys- Thomas Hanson pitched 133 innings last season and has thrown 138 this year. He is projected as a possible for the 09 rotation. Why would you take the chance of overusing him for a meaningless period of time in Atlanta? Besides, he’s scheduled to pitch the AFL, which will boost his IP to just the right point -stretching him out, but not overworking him. It will also showcase him against all the other teams’ top talent. A logical move that would be derailed were he to pitch more innings in Atlanta.

Kris Medlen-Pitched 47 innings in 07 and has pitched 120 innings this year. Bad policy to have him exceed his prior years’ total by that much and CONTINUE to pitch him in a meaningless end to a meaningless season. Does his arm need to fall off a year or more before he is even ready to play in the majors? Sure wouldn’t want you as Director Of Player Personnel.

Charles Morton-Dude, this is the ONLY other young pitcher even ready for a shot at the bigs. He pitched 79 innings last season and has already boosted his IP WAY past the point of sanity to 153 this year. Look where he is now. Shut down with shoulder blade issues. Wow. Let’s pitch him some more so we can see what he’s got-something we’re already aware of (he’s got plenty, but like young pitchers, is still inconsistent).

Dude, that about covers the only young pitchers logically ready (or close) to a big league rotation. How do you justify any of them filling meaningless innings this September in Atlanta? That idea makes zero sense.

By Shaun

September 25, 2008 2:13 PM | Link to this

unless its one of the anal stat geeks running rampant who don’t want to admit that run production, NOT OBP is what gives teams the ability to win games-and NO I don’t want to debate this ad nauseum-been there, done that and you won’t see anyone else’s pooint of view

Lew, huh? How do you define run production? You seriously don’t think getting on base has anything to do with runs? Wow.

Of course you don’t want to debate this because the evidence is quite clear and obvious that teams that the teams that get on base most and slug the best are the ones that score runs. You want to brush that little fact under the rug so that you can define run production as you wish.

And where has Utley “tanked” in the second half? His on-base is .387 in the second half and he’s slugging .460. Oh, yeah, those numbers don’t have anything to do with run production because you say so.

And why don’t you ask the Braves what cost them a playoff spot more: Their 12-15 March and April? Their .407 June? Their .400 July? Their .310 August? Or their 12-10, .545 record during “crunch time”?

Or why don’t you talk to the members of the 1984 Tigers and ask them if their 18-2 April and 19-7 May meant less to their pennant hopes than their 33-25 August and September?

By keylargo

September 25, 2008 2:16 PM | Link to this

BA, I think you missed the point that Plagiarism Police was making.

A Brian Walton wrote that article in Sept. of 2005. Someone else tried to pass it off to the blog today as their work. That is frowned on slightly more than napping at a redlight.

By beekay

September 25, 2008 2:23 PM | Link to this

Look what was just posted in the Mets blog today!!

« Mets activate Maine | Blog Home | Santana and Jekyll & Hyde Mets »

September 24, 2008 Pouring salt on the wound From BRIAN COSTELLO

I had an interesting perspective for the end of the MetsNew York Mets -Cubs game tonight and thought Mets fans might find it interesting: I watched the end of the game in the Braves’ clubhouse in Philadelphia.

I’m here covering the Phillies side of the NL East chase but went over to the Atlanta clubhouse to talk to Chipper Jones about his home run.

When I got over there it was the top of the 10th and many of the Braves were dressed in their suits sitting around a big-screen TV watching the game. Several players debated who had worse fans — the Phillies or the Mets — as they debated who they’d like to see make the playoffs.

As Derrek Lee knocked in the go-ahead run the Braves exploded, cheering on the Cubs. It happened again when Aramis Ramirez homered and a few members of the team and traveling party began singing “Meet the Mets.” Others mocked the Kevin James video shown at Shea Stadium where he screams “Let’s Go Mets!”

I’d give you names but I’m not sure who many of these guys even are. The Braves’ roster has turned over so much, and with September call-ups, most of the guys are unrecognizable without a jersey on.

I asked Chipper what he thought about this weekend and he said: “I wouldn’t want to play the Marlins right now.”

Chipper was watching the game, but was not one of the players celebrating. I do think he cracked a smile when Ramirez homered. Maybe he’s just an old friend …

By Shaun

September 25, 2008 2:30 PM | Link to this

Lew, so RBI or HR factor greatly into run production? So Chipper is around the 76th most productive player in baseball (RBI)? Or maybe he’s the 61st most productive player in baseball (HR)?

I don’t think so. Chipper ranks 2nd in OPS. And while I don’t know that he’s the second-most productive player in baseball, I guarantee he’s closer to 2nd than 76th or 61st.

By Supes

September 25, 2008 2:41 PM | Link to this

Well, well well…where are all the NY Mets fans? I guess the Mets got their panties wet again…yesterday!

That was great, seeing them agonize and blow another game.

It’ll be fun to watch the Fish come in for the weekend and “complete Meltdown 2.0”.

Meanwhile, Braves are playing well, showing signs of life and there is hope for 2009. When you see the Braves play with passion, fire and actually produce results and you see the Mets play with a stick up their butts, trying not to lose instead of going for it. Awesome september baseball.

It’s going to be “amazing”…no New York Teams in the playoffs, enjoyable and relaxing.

I predicted it a while back…Brewers for the NL WildCard, Phillies for the NL East…Mets just the 1st loser in the division. That’s what they call the team that finishes second METS fans!

By Lew

September 25, 2008 2:44 PM | Link to this

Shaun-Runs win ball games. THAT is a fact. The team with the highest OBP does not get a win unless the runners they have on base happen to score. Yes, it IS important to GET on base, but if you are stranded there, it DOESN’T MEAN ANYTHING. Nothing. Nada. Zip. Zero. Just ask Jeff Francoeur. Just ask Chipper if he would trade 40 points of OBP for wins because he drove in runs. I’m betting he’d dump those OBP points in a heartbeat.

The first half of the season, Utley’s OBP resulted in almost the same run production as Howard (I use runs, plus RBI minus HR-as good a method as any sane person without WAY too much time on their hands has ever come up with). In the second half of the season, Utley’s OBP did NOT result in anywhere NEAR the run production of Howard (or the numbers from his first half). His Batting average dropped. His Home Run production dropped. His RBI production dropped. His Slugging % dropped. His OPS dropped. NOT what you want to see from an MVP candidate, even if it is MVP of his team.

Conversely, despite a lower OBP than Utley, Howard’s run production numbers the first half were almost IDENTICAL to those Utley put up-he was STILL producing. However, the second half of 08, while Utley was putting up radically declining numbers (EXCEPT OBP), Howard’s bat carried the team, increasing his production just as radically (if not more so) than Utley’s declined. As a result, the Phillies are still in first place, Without Howard’s 2nd half performance and run production, like I said, the Phillies would be looking up at the Marlins and Mets.

No one is putting down OBP, nor are they disputing it’s relevance. However, as I already pointed out, OBP does not always translate to runs scored and the ultimate winners are not always the leaders in OBP.

As for the fact that Howard had more runners on ahead of him-isn’t that what you seek for your cleanup hitter? Isn’t that why you have the table setters hitting ahead of the cleanup guy? Even so, all those runners are meaningless if they aren’t driven in (look to Francoeur his first two years compared to 08). Howard drove those runners in. THAT is what he is expected to do. He did his job while Utley’s production fell off because he underperformed. Plain and simple. Cherry pick your numbers or spin them in terms of all your obscure stats all you want. If he doesn’t knock in the runs, the Phillies lose. Knock them in and they win. Who did his job during pressure time and who didn’t? THAT should determine the Most Valuable Player-NOT his OBP.

By BA

September 25, 2008 3:01 PM | Link to this

keylargo, no-name Nancy’s (“plagurism police”) point is of no consequence to me. I could care less what any of the nameless losers here who love to play “gotcha” have to say, or what point they’re trying to make. But it seems ironic to me that the ACTUAL writer of that article sees fit to deem Tavarez (or anybody) “undeserving” of the privelege of being a cardinal. Between their DUI manager and their legacy of steroid use, I don’t consider the cardinals to be a pristine organization.

And DUI, I think, is far worse than plagurism as a crime. Thanks for trying to correct me, but I think I’ll just continue to respond to any post from any angle I choose.

By BA

September 25, 2008 3:10 PM | Link to this

All of these useless statistical arguments (you know, the ones that have been going full blast, for about 24 hours at this point) sure make for a lot of scrolling. Guys, seriously, if anybody DID care about this, they quit caring about ten hours ago. GM’s aren’t using vorq or whatever it is. No trade has been decided on vorq. No signings are predicated on vorq. Managers aren’t benching people because of vorq. Ned Yost was not fired over vorq.

Some folks enjoy obscure statistics. Fine by me. Doesn’t make them relevant.

By Shaun

September 25, 2008 3:11 PM | Link to this

Lew, The point is that looking at an individual player’s RBI total doesn’t necessarily tell you how productive he is because RBI totals depend as much on how many runners are on for that player.

What you seem to be saying is that it is meaningless that Howard has come to the plate this season with 39 more runners on base than Utley.

No one is saying OBP is the primary factor in value. Utley leads the team in times on base and on-base percentage, he’s extremely close to Howard in total bases and slugging percentage, he obviously has more steals at a higher percentage than Howard, he plays better defense at a tougher position that Howard. Sorry if that is “cherry picking” to you; pointing out that Utley leads or is close to the lead in a number of meaningful categories.

As for the fact that Howard had more runners on ahead of him-isn’t that what you seek for your cleanup hitter?

Yes. But what does that have to do with the question of value? A hitter who is worse than another can still drive in more runs if he gets more opportunities. I don’t think you would dream of arguing that Mark Teixeira has been more productive to the 2008 Braves than Chipper, but Teixeira has more RBI.

By Lew

September 25, 2008 3:11 PM | Link to this

Shaun-To answer your question about whether HR and RBI factor greatly into run production. DUH!!! Yeah.

By Bravedawg

September 25, 2008 3:21 PM | Link to this

My God, the idiocy on here is stunning. It’s hilarious how many people on here make a crude joke like “I don’t know VORP from GED, but I do know…” and then go on to criticize VORP and other newer stats. That’s a great practice in general; criticize something that you JUST ADMITTED you know nothing about. Awesome.

By DAP

September 25, 2008 3:24 PM | Link to this

also, if youve got a player with a high batting average, a good OPS, alot of homers and RBIs, cant you be pretty sure his VORP will be pretty high(or low, whichever one is good) without knowing his VORP or even what VORP is?

guys, how about bobby abreu for LF in 2009? do we absolutly have to have a righty?

By Bobby's Cox

September 25, 2008 3:24 PM | Link to this

It’s scary what people will or will not accept without even doing any research.

Shaun

Amen.

By Steve from OH

September 25, 2008 3:28 PM | Link to this

Hoosier Aaron, once again I’ll point out that stats #1 and #2 that we’re arguing about don’t take defense into account. They’re purely offensive stats. So you are correct in saying other things must be taken into account, and for the defensive side of the equation we are largely forced to use our observations becuase most defensive metrics have lots of flaws. Do you often see me cite defensive metrics on this blog without that disclaimer? Not likely.

The multi-dimensional argument is true: there is a bit more to the game than stats. But stats are a very large part, of that there can be no doubt. No matter how good of a teammate you are, how fantastic of a baserunner you are, not matter how awesome you are at being a team leader, this means nothing to your value if you do not get on base, slug, and play defense. None whatsoever. However, if two players are close in statistical value, then these things can, and should, be taken into account. Saying they shouldn’t is silly. This is where scouting and statistics work hand in hand to determining the value of a baseball player. But so is saying that you should sign David Eckstein becuase he’s “gritty” and a “hustler” when you can get way, way better production by signing Mr. Choke artist, anti-teammate Alex Rodriguez. I mean, statistics will tell you that JoJo Reyes is a terrible pitcher (at least this season). No one will debate that. Scouting will tell you that he’s got a lot of potential and could possibly be a very good ML pitcher in the next few years. Who is right? Tough to tell. This is why scouting and statistics MUST go hand-in-hand to evaluate player performance. But you can’t dismiss one or the other.

But keep in mind (especially you, DOB), that if you value things like on base %, slugging%, and stolen bases, heck, even batting average, then there is ABSOLUTELY no reason not to value EqA. NONE WHATSOEVER, becuase EqA takes all of these things into account. It’s not like it’s based on some magical baseball-playing quotient that some “stat geek” made up in his mother’s basement. It’s based purely on existing metrics that ALL baseball fans can understand. All you’ve got to do is look up the formula, which sadly many of you are too stubborn to do.

Lew: On-base percentage has a very high correlation with runs scored. Slugging percentage is even higher. EqA (gasp) is even higher still at .928 (anyone who actually knows anything about statistics knows that this is excellent). All of these are better than things like batting average. In addition, while (like my roomate says) “RBI score the points,” they aren’t a good indicator of INDIVIDUAL performance. No one is debating that runs win the game, or that RBI aren’t important. They are. But to evaluate a player’s INDIVIDUAL imapact, you should choose a less context-dependant stat. That’s all. For instance, if I tell you that two players have 90 RBI, how can you tell which one is better, or if they are both good? You can’t. That’s why you need other metrics. I would also like to point out that all runs count the same, so while pressure time sure does seem important, a player who hits a walk-off solo homer in the ninth is not any more valuable to his team than the guy who hits a solo homer in the first (which allows the score to be tied for the other guy). Clutch stats are great, but they’re not the whole story. You need the whole picture here, and other stats do a better job of telling that than RBI. You should know this.

Coach, I’m still waiting for your proof.

DOB, I would still like an answer about the metrics the front office uses, if you would be so kind as to ask at your leisure. Not to prove or disprove my point, but out of curiosity. Although I would like to point out that Bill James, the father of nerdery in baseball, works for the Boston Red Sox, and they seem to be doing all right, now don’t they?

By Shaun

September 25, 2008 3:31 PM | Link to this

Shaun-To answer your question about whether HR and RBI factor greatly into run production. DUH!!! Yeah.

So, then you think Chipper is closer to the 76th or 61st most productive player in the majors than the 2nd? Chipper ranks 76th in RBI and 61st in homeruns. But I doubt you will find anyone who thinks he’s anywhere near worse than the 60th most productive hitter in the majors.

By Steve from OH

September 25, 2008 3:34 PM | Link to this

Also, Coach, mlbtr reports that Ichiro Suzuki, the man of a plethora of Gold Gloves, Silver Sluggers, and MVP’s, is not “well-liked” in the Mariners clubhouse. Does this intangible outweigh his statistical performance? I don’t think so, but I’d love to hear your take on it.

By Lew

September 25, 2008 3:35 PM | Link to this

Shaun-Unscientific though it may be, of the six Division leaders (right now), 2-the Cubs (1) and Rays (4) are in the top five of their leagues in OBP. Only ONE Division leader is also the leader for their Division in OBP. The Braves are third in the league in OBP, yet are 18 games under .500. According to you, this should not be the case.

Conversely, 4 Division leaders are in the top five in HR Two are first and two are fifth in their respective leagues) and 3 are in the top five of their league in RBI ((a first , second and a fifth).

You tell me who is winning more games-the teams with the highest OBP or the teams that have higher HR and RBI totals? Rhetorical, Dude, it ain’t even a contest.

By DAP

September 25, 2008 3:38 PM | Link to this

i think bobby abreu would be good for the braves, the only problem is, he will cost alot more than a guy like casey blake, and im not sure he will be that much more valuable.

now, obviously, abreu is a better hitter than blake. abreu has great career stats, with a .300 AVG and a .903 OPS, but blake will cost significantly less. maybe half as much. blake has experience playing 3rd and 1st, in case we needed a back up. casey has very similar power ability, but his OBP is not as good. and, hes right handed, which would enable us to break up some of our lefties.

if our rotation was solid for 2009, id love to go after abreu, and hope to sign mike cameron as well. our outfield would be really good. but, considering that we really need to spend on some pitching as well this offseason, we might need to get a guy like casey blake instead.

(p.s. maybe better than either of them is if we can work out a good trade for ordonez)

By Ed Glennon

September 25, 2008 3:44 PM | Link to this

Can Hampton play firstbase? Chipper had a homerun and 3 RBI’s last night. How long did it take Kotchman to do that? Trade Kotchman and Lillibrige to Pittsburg for Adam LaRoche. Trade Kotchman for Willie Aybar. Trade Kotchman for Joey Devine. Trade Kotchman - for anybody.

By Lew

September 25, 2008 3:46 PM | Link to this

Steve from OH-Dude, don’t fall into Shaun’s trap. No one is saying there is no relevance or no importance to OBP. On the contrary, it IS one of the stats I pay attention to. However, to think it the be all and end all of analytical statistics is naive, at best. OBP DOES NOT always correlate to runs scored, yet HR and RBI DO correlate to scored runs-ALWAYS.

I pointed out as well, that though Utley’s OBP may have remained steady (or even maybe gone up a tad) from one half of the season to the other, his HR production dropped. His RBI production dropped and his SLG % dropped. Not only did they drop, but they dropped a good bit, while Howard, having put up identical first half production numbers to Utley (despite the considerable gap in their respective OBP’s) improved his production a good bi-AND raised his own OBP consideravbly. The question we were debating was who was more Valuable to his team-NOT who got on base more.

OBP is a good tool, but it ain’t all there is and does not always correlate to being the best teams.

By Bravedawg

September 25, 2008 3:53 PM | Link to this

Ed - congratulations! You just vaulted above Lew for the “idiot commenter of the day” award. Thanks for playing.

By Shaun

September 25, 2008 3:53 PM | Link to this

Lew, how many of those division leaders who aren’t high in the OBP rankings on offense are low in the OBP allowed rankings? There are two sides to the game.

Offensive OBP correlates strongly with runs scored but not necessarily winning (although getting on and scoring runs obviously helps a team win).

Every playoff-contending team except the Mets and Phillies rank in the top 9 in the majors in lowest OBP allowed. The Mets rank 4th in both OBP and SLG, which explains why they have stayed in contention. The Phillies obviously have a good offense and also play in a pitcher’s park.

Look at OBP differential or OPS differential and see how that correlates with winning.

By Bobby's Cox

September 25, 2008 3:54 PM | Link to this

nolie

thanks for posting that Buster Onley article.

i agree with it wholeheartedly. I may be wrong, but I don’t see the Braves signing many top notch free agents this year. I think they wait around for all the Mississippi pitchers to season. The guys they get in the offseason will be stop gap guys, like a Lowe, Kip Wells, Byrd, Hampton.

I see them wanting to go the trade route. Jesse Litsch is pretty impressive, so is Laffey. I really don’t think they spend that much money on starters this year, but if they don’t, then who do they trade within the organization (diaz, flowers, lilibridge, KJ/Prado,Jo Jo, Morton, Campillo, Anderson, Blanco)? That’s not that impressive a group, and I see other teams wanting the more promising crop (heyward, Gorkys, Hanson, Medlen, Marek, Freeman, Cody Johnson, Shafer).

It’s gonna be tough for Wren this year, but fun for the rest of us.

By DAP

September 25, 2008 3:57 PM | Link to this

this article talks about how the marlins are going to value defense when building thier team for 2009. so, needless to say, look for some changes. if i had to guess, id say they keep all of thier starters, including olsen.

they will move cantu to first, because they really like his bat, but he is real bad defensivly. uggla will be gone, replaced by a slick fielding 2B, jacobs will be gone (with cantu moved to 1B), and willingham may also be traded.

they will try to get young, athletic players who can run, get on base, and play defense while trading these players.

thats what i think anyways. we’ll see.

By Steve from OH

September 25, 2008 3:57 PM | Link to this

From Keith Law’s chat today:

*James (Philly, PA): According to Bill James’ website, Chase Utley has a +47 this season using the Fielding Bible’s +/- system. Is Utley really this great of a defender? I think so but I never hear anything on TV other than he is a “good” defender.

Keith Law: Yes, he’s superb. Very sure-handed with good range. Not bad for a guy who was considered a defensive liability out of college.*

In another one of his responses, he posted that he thought Heyward would be a “perennial allstar,” actually, I’ll just post his response:

Keith Law: Perennial All-Star. Impact avg and power bat in RF with good plate discipline and plus defense.

By TommyP

September 25, 2008 3:58 PM | Link to this

Interesting MVP discussion on here.

I have a hard time giving it to someone that has been as streaky as Howard, though. An MVP is consistent, in my opinion.

Horrible first two months (.168 in April?) and then .213 in August. Yeah, he’s been on a tear this month but I’m just not buying Howard as MVP this year.

And defensively? If he’s not the worst fielding 1B in the NL, he’s gotta be 2nd worst AT BEST. Ugh….

Y’all might not like this vote but it might be David Wright for me. He does it all….VERY WELL.

By Lew

September 25, 2008 4:00 PM | Link to this

Let us also keep in mind that even though Howard had 39 more runners on in front of him that Utley, he still had 46 more RBI. Guess that negates THAT.

By Shaun

September 25, 2008 4:01 PM | Link to this

You tell me who is winning more games-the teams with the highest OBP or the teams that have higher HR and RBI totals?

Both. Teams that get on base are teams that drive in the most runs and teams that hit the most homers are also going to score and drive in the most runs.

But team RBI are different from individual hitters’ RBI totals. You see, team RBI totals tell you about baserunners and power. An individual’s RBI totals may only tell you about RBI opportunities. In other words an individuals’ teammates may be as much or more responsible for his RBI total than himself.

Again, is Chipper really not better than the 60th most productive hitter in baseball? Because that’s what his RBI and homer totals say. But his OPS tells us he’s closer to the 2nd most productive hitter. I’ve yet to hear you address that, Lew.

Also, again, no one said OBP was the “be-all, end-all.” I pointed out several reasons Utley is a better MVP candidate than Howard besides OBP. Not only has Utley got on base more, he’s accrued almost the same total bases, he’s stolen more bases at a better rate, he plays better defense at a tougher position. I have yet to hear you address all those things. All you can seem to say is that Utley’s OBP advantage means nothing.

By Bay Area Steve

September 25, 2008 4:02 PM | Link to this

Shaun and Steve from OH:

I agree with what you guys are saying regarding the value of EqA and VORP. But I’d like your opinion on something if you don’t mind.

My question stems from something Wayne (in Utah) said last night about Howard being a more-feared hitter than Utley, Werth, or Burrell.

If the Phillies were to switch Utley and Howard in the order, is it likely Howard would then get better pitches to hit, resulting in statistical evidence that he is even better than his stats currently show? Put another way, is Utley, at his current spot in the order, getting better pitches to hit, resulting in inflated stats?

For the sake of the discussion, please remove any issue of baserunning or situational hitting. I’m just looking for your opinions as to whether a hitter truly “protects” the man in front of him, if the one protected truly gets better pitches to hit, and if this would result in better statistics.

By Hoosier Aaron

September 25, 2008 4:02 PM | Link to this

Let me ask this question.

Statisically speaking - On April 1, 2008 if you had to bet on one team winning the World Series - where does your money go? This isn’t Las Vegas - so assume the odds on all three are the same:

A) New York Yankees B) Detroit Tigers C) Tampa Bay Rays

Stats are history. It’s about winning.

I love stats and the history of the game - but the beauty of the game is when a team like the Rays eats the lunch of the Yankees and Tigers whose lineups are filled top-to-bottom with monster stats.

Okay - show of hands - who had the Rays in the office pool?

Can the Fantasy League stats tell us why the Tigers are in last place?

By Shaun

September 25, 2008 4:07 PM | Link to this

HR and RBI DO correlate to scored runs-ALWAYS.

Right, but how do you deal with the fact that a player may get a triple and the next guy may ground out or hit a sac fly? How do you deal with the fact that the triple at least deserves as much credit as the groundout or sac fly? But it doesn’t when you look at RBI. Only the guy who got the groundout or flyout gets any credit. And conversely with runs. Only the guy who got the triple gets credit but not the guy who drove him in. How do you deal with that if you are judging individual hitters by RBI or runs?

By Steve from OH

September 25, 2008 4:08 PM | Link to this

Lew, you’re correct from a TEAM perspective. From an INDIVIDUAL perspective, it’s better to use less context-dependant statistics. That’s the point I was trying to make. I also never said that you didn’t value OBP. I know you do.

Umm, and I don’t know what you’re basing your 1st half/2nd half Utley/Howard thing on, but according to the stats you posted, Utley’s 2nd half OPS was still better than Howard’s. So what if it was lower than his 1st half? IT WAS STILL BETTER. Just becuase he declined doesn’t necessarily make him less valuable than Howard, because he obviously isn’t. Like, seriously, that shows that he was still the better player offensively (and he was better defensively, too). For the record, I do (seriously) enjoy your posts. Read every one of ‘em. You’re one of my favorite bloggers here, but I just cannot support you on this claim, nor can I see your logic. Sorry, dude, Utley has been more valuable than Howard across this season.

By mbatl

September 25, 2008 4:08 PM | Link to this

Bobby’s Cox, I agree. I’m almost hoping the Braves don’t spend $100 mil or more next year, because I fear we’ll be taking on contracts that are going to hamper us after ‘09.

Personally, I’d be fine if we signed one free agent pitcher, maybe trade for a guy like Hermida (who ain’t great, but is young, has promise, and would not be a longterm commitment), and then 1-year deals for Smoltz and Hampton. (maybe 1 year with option for a 2nd for Hampton)

Give Lowe a huge contract ($18 mil if that’s what it takes), but for only 3 years…

I think that would make us competitive in ‘09, keep the core in place, and give the young guys a year to develop. (and for Hudson to get healthy).

I know it’s not likely… the Braves have (IMO) spoken too soon with the promises to “spend every dollar available”. And maybe the fan base would revolt. I wouldn’t.

By Lew

September 25, 2008 4:10 PM | Link to this

Shaun-Now you think pitching stats are relevant in determining who the MVP (among position players) is? Dude, of course OBP against would matter to who won more games, but is totally irrelevant in this current discussion.

As for interdependency, can you possibly find a stat for choosing the best in individual performances in a TEAM sport? Does such a creature even exist ? Of course it all depends on your teammates-AND it all comes down to individual performance-apparently the Endless Enigma. Howard produced and Utley didn’t (as much). Seems you’re the only one who can’t wrap your head around this.

I’m out of here. We old men who are so Neolithic as to actually see benefit in Home Runs and driving in runs get tired easily-especially during a Shaun-a-Thon. I need a nap-or a walk in the potato patch. Yeah. That’s the ticket-maybe with a little of the New Metallica. Nothing like listening to Chop Chop’s favorite Mangled Flesh lyrics to drown out the stat geeks for a while. Later.

By TommyP

September 25, 2008 4:11 PM | Link to this

As far as which pitchers to chase, still too early for the in-depth conversation but I see the Braves signing one and dealing for one.

The signee will undoubtedly be the lesser of the two because the Braves aren’t going to break the bank on one guy.

I’m thinking Randy Wolf would be a nice signing given what’s out there.

He shouldn’t command too much and is 1+ years removed from arm problems and appears to be healthy now. He’s a lefty and is starting to round into the form of his younger years.

As far as trades….still not sure as I haven’t perused the rosters in awhile but a name that jumps out at me is Chris Young of San Diego. Very affordable, several years remaining on his contract, very good pitcher and San Diego has many holes on that roster.

Now whom we deal is quite another story. It might have to be a 3-way deal.

By Shaun

September 25, 2008 4:16 PM | Link to this

Let us also keep in mind that even though Howard had 39 more runners on in front of him that Utley, he still had 46 more RBI. Guess that negates THAT.

Right, that negates that. So we have to look at other things like times on base and total bases and baserunning and defense. Utley blows Howard away in times on base, baserunning and defense and he is extremely close in total bases. There we have it.

Can you please answer the Chipper question now? How is he no better than the 60th most productive player in the game as his homer and RBI totals show?

By Steve from OH

September 25, 2008 4:17 PM | Link to this

Bay Area Steve, I would say that it is very possible (that Utley is getting better pitches), but I don’t think that it is significant. At least, not to the tune of the 38 OPS points that separate them (Utley: .912, Howard: .874). If you would tell me that Utley’s OPS is, say, 5 points higher due to that effect, I’d buy it, but not 38 points higher.

If you flip-flopped them? Well, for one thing, Howard’s RBI totals would be lower, lol. But I’m sure Howard’s numbers would be a little better, but not by a significant margin.

If you were a pitcher, who would you rather pitch to? My guess is neither one of them. I’m not sure if one is any more feared than another, because they’re both so good. At least, if I was pitching against them, I wouldn’t like the prospect of facing either one of ‘em.

By Steve from OH

September 25, 2008 4:21 PM | Link to this

Hoosier Aaron, PECOTA (which comes from Baseball Prospectus, the very same folks who came up with EqA and VORP) predicted that the Rays would win 87 games this season. I sh!t you not. It actually had them slightly above the Yankees, I believe.

Although I’ll admit that I never would have picked the Rays to do anything. But it goes to show that when statistics, projections and scouting work together hand in hand, the results can be pretty doggone good.

By TennesseePaul

September 25, 2008 4:22 PM | Link to this

RICHBRAVE: Nothing with the heart, it’s all hand. Listed as day to day. Available for pinch-hitting. Unable to hang for the entire 9. But it’s better than nothing and I’ll take it. The rehab is just a means to get back in the saddle. The ability to type improves daily. Still can’t do much activities but that will come.

Nice win last night. Hopped down to the bar to catch the game on TV. I liked what I saw. Perhaps because I saw the Braves win and the Mets lose. Just good stuff.

By crap-wheelie

September 25, 2008 4:24 PM | Link to this

TommyP:

The Mets are going to add K-rod and maybe CC, certainly an ace free agent. Do you really think we can compete with Chris Young and Randy Wolf. We need an ace. Period. Without one, we will be out of contention again by July. If Liberty doesn’t want to own this team and win with it, then we have a long road back to respectability.

By Shaun

September 25, 2008 4:25 PM | Link to this

Shaun-Now you think pitching stats are relevant in determining who the MVP (among position players) is? Dude, of course OBP against would matter to who won more games, but is totally irrelevant in this current discussion.

Huh? You are the one who brought up OBP and team wins. Remember? You brought up the two division winners who have the best OBP? I’m answering that. Holy cow! You are the one who changed the discussion to team wins and OBP.

Lew, you aren’t doing yourself or the Howard-for-team-MVP crowd any favors. Focus like a laser beam. Utley has been on base more, he has almost an identical amount of total bases, he’s the better fielder and the better baserunner. What more do you want? You can set up a strawman so that you can attack us for only caring about on-base percentage. You can change the subject yourself to team wins and team OBP and pretend we brought it up. But the fact is Utley is better than Howard at most meaningful things in baseball except total bases, where he is almost as good.

By richbrave

September 25, 2008 4:33 PM | Link to this

TennPaul:

Glad its not something else. Nice take on last night’s game. Down with that 100%.

By TommyP

September 25, 2008 4:34 PM | Link to this

Crap-wheelie:

Yes, I do.

The Mets spend tons every year….as do several other teams and big time spending doesn’t equate to division champs.

Chris Young is one of the better pitchers around. He’s VERY good. (maybe one of the most underrated pitchers around)

Wolf is affordable and looks to be getting back into form of his early Phillie days.

So you’re saying we spend $22 million/year for a guy like C.C.?

No thanks. No thanks on Sheets. No thanks on giving ANY pitcher that much money.

By FJR

September 25, 2008 4:34 PM | Link to this

hey DOB,

Not sure you’re aware, but the new dead confederate album came out today. You can get it from iTunes

or buy the physical cd from musicpsace.com

Also, if you want to get in touch with me, I can hook you up with their old album, under the name The Redbelly Band (same band, just a different name), that is currently out of print.

By Bay Area Steve

September 25, 2008 4:37 PM | Link to this

Thanks for your take, Ohio Steve.

Agreed about not wanting to face either. I recall a couple of games early in the year where Utley and Howard were hitting 3 and 4, Bobby brings in Ring, and each time Ring made them both look silly.

That made me think we could compete with the Phillies. I was wrong.

By Steve from OH

September 25, 2008 4:41 PM | Link to this

crap-wheelie, the Mets won’t get CC. I’ll bet money on that. But if they want to spend a huge amount of cash of K-Rod, let ‘em. He’s not worth it. It’ll only keep them from upgrading other parts of their club adequately.

But I agree, those names you threw out there won’t cut it. I agree, we do need an ace.

By mbatl

September 25, 2008 4:48 PM | Link to this

Pujols is 3-3, with a double and a HR, up to .353 … not gonna make it easy for Chipper, I guess.

By Bobby's Cox

September 25, 2008 4:51 PM | Link to this

Shuan

Decided I’d do some VORP investigating on your behalf. Even though I like seeing you being ganged up on for once, I thought I’d keep an open mind, and help you out a bit.

Jeff Francoeuer is last on the team in VORP at -17.3.

Every player on the braves this year, including pitchers, has a higher VORP than Jeff Francoeuer. Corky Miller’s (2nd to last), was -9.4.

Francoueur is 1029 out of 1032 players in baseball in VORP. The only players worse? Andruw Jones (1030), Corey Patterson (1031), and ex-brave prospect Tony Pena Jr. (1032). Too many braves affiliates at the end of that list, eh?

I know it sucks to get gained up on. But damn, weren’t you defending Jeff Francouer a few weeks back?

If league execs rely too heavily on VORP, then I guess Jeff Francouer will be playing in Kansas City next year. God I hope so.

By ncscoots

September 25, 2008 4:53 PM | Link to this

they [the Marlins] will try to get young, athletic players who can run, get on base, and play defense while trading these players.

Good. That means one less team in the division to worry about. Fredi Gonzalez reads that, and he probably goes looking for a good resume writer.

By N Nine

September 25, 2008 4:54 PM | Link to this

THE CHIPPER JONES UPDATE:

Chipper- offday at Houston .365

Pujols -just hit a 3 run homer

3-3 .353

EH, Chipper in the driver seat. Take a day off if it gets close!

McFann* Move over Terry Kennedy, Mac will be a doubles machine for years to come! **43

By ncscoots

September 25, 2008 4:59 PM | Link to this

BASteve, where you been, brah? Or have I just been missing your posts?

By N Nine

September 25, 2008 5:00 PM | Link to this

sorry didn’t mean to bold it, I think i have that VORP disease.

By David O'Brien

September 25, 2008 5:13 PM | Link to this

Finally got to my Houston hotel. In this day and age, it shouldn’t take so long to get from Philly to Houston. That’s a full day, basically, from leaving hotel at 8 a.m. to getting here now.

Anyway … just drove by Reliant Stadium, which is directly across the street from the old Astrodome. Couldn’t help but notice that huge panels are still off on the roof at Reliant, yet that old-arse dome appears to have sustained almost no roof damage.

By N Nine

September 25, 2008 5:13 PM | Link to this

BTW, The Astros we are about to play are NOT officially out yet. With the E# at 2, the chances are very slim, but there are only 3 games! We have endured a tour da spoilers lately, and playing pleasantly well.

By Bad Brad

September 25, 2008 5:14 PM | Link to this

Hampton has shown he can still be a decent pitcher and he will not cost next year what he did this year. Sign him up.

By David O'Brien

September 25, 2008 5:17 PM | Link to this

FJR, I bought the new Dead Confederate album off the merch table at their show at the Earl in East Atlanta last week. As I mentioned above, I’m digging that CD. And my ears are still ringing from the show. (Actually, my ears are neither ringing nor hearing much of anything right now — they’re stuffed and feeling putrid after taking two flights today while sick. I really do hate flying while sick and congested. That pain in the ears as you begin the descent, that’s not pleasant whatsoever.)

By McFann ;Ô;

September 25, 2008 5:22 PM | Link to this

N Nine Mac will be a doubles machine for years to come!

Let’s hope so!! Sure would be nice if he hit one this weekend so we don’t have to wait all the way till next year! (Though it would be well worth the wait.)

Dang, Pujols! Now you’re awake, I see…

By David O'Brien

September 25, 2008 5:27 PM | Link to this

Lennie G, just got a chuckle out of your 10:06 a.m. post.

By MiamiBeachBravesFan

September 25, 2008 5:35 PM | Link to this

I am sure that Ben Sheets and C.C. Sabathia are going to command more than three years at $16-$18 million a year. Yet, you have to ask if either one is Greg Maddux or Carl Pavano.

Ben Sheets is a no-brainer. His history of injuries and otherwise brittleness (he is presently out with shoulder miseries) makes him the last pitcher you would want to sign - unless you got him at the right price. Yet, what is that price when you cannot depend on his health for a full season throughout the life of a contract.

Sabathia is another riddle. While a relative workhorse, he seems like the kind of pitcher that is the anti-Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz. I think he is soft, not a hungry guy who lays it on the line every fifth day. His performance early in the season with Cleveland should act as a cautionary tale of a guy who pitches when he wants to pitch. Like Robinson Cano, if Sabathia finally gets his big contract, one has to wonder if he’ll be that elite kind of pitcher - like a Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz - who will always play to the hilt despite the big money, and give you his very best every fifth day.

Fact is, there is no one out there on the free agent market who is the caliber of a Maddux when the Braves signed him in 1993. Not so much for the eventual greatness of Maddux, but for the sheer competitive tenacity married to fortunate health.

The Braves were reamed when they took on Mike Hampton. Three years of salary and practically no starts inpacted fortunes during that time. Money well spent by teams is at a premium these days. Ball clubs like the Braves can ill afford to take pricey flyers on mercurial pitchers who are head cases, or as fragile as Chris Chandler.

The only gamble worth taking is Hampton because I can only guess that someone as competitive as Hampton would feel a sense of propriety with the Braves for the lost time these past three years. Hampton did not ask to be injured; that said, there has to be something within his ethos that speaks to loyalty and integrity. The right thing for Hampton to do is to sign a reasonable contract with Atlanta as recompense for this three year debacle.

One more season of Glavine, the (im)possible return of Smoltz (still rooting for him to come back, though), the eventual return of Tim Hudson (albeit late in the season), a healthy Hampton, Jair Jurrjens, Jorge Campillo, and the ascension of either Charlie Morton, James Parr, Buddy Carlyle, Jeff Bennett, Jo-Jo Reyes, or even Anthony Lerew or Chuck James will have to suffice. That’s 13 possibilities and, if you’re not superstitious, five will have to be found from that lot. We need to groom young pitchers from the minors and have them perform. Money well spent should be on position players (Carl Crawford, anyone?) who have a proven track record of performance and can be signed for a good price (we’ve missed several of those opportunities in the past several years).

By the by, if Jurrjens continues to improve, he needs to be signed after next season to a long-term deal and not wait until he’s past his arbitration years. Now there’s a guy who seems like he’s the real deal.

By Coach (Skip will be missed)

September 25, 2008 5:40 PM | Link to this

The Minnesota Twins are 3rd in team BA at .280, 4th in team RBI at 776 and yet, they have hit 111 HR’s which is ranked 29th out of all 30 teams. They are also ranked 19th in SLG.

I’m betting Shaun could never even begin to grasp how the Twins are 86-72 and still fighting for a playoff spot.

Here’s a clue, it’s one big, long word. It starts with the letter F.

By keylargo

September 25, 2008 5:55 PM | Link to this

Pujols is at .353. Chipper could go 0 for 15 and still be hitting .353.

By TommyP

September 25, 2008 5:56 PM | Link to this

To those wanting an “ACE” pitcher for next year: Whom are you thinking about?

And if it’s a player that needs to be dealt for, how in the world after last year’s Tex trade do we come up with another package of prospects?

Just asking….

By Lew

September 25, 2008 5:59 PM | Link to this

Shaun-How much longer do we need to indulge in your circular argument, when we’ve not been able to put so much as a crack in your wall of total infleibility after over three years (you weren’t overly impressed with Howard’s MVP year in 07, either, I seem to recall-something about 54 HR not being overly impressive)?

Quite honestly, I wouldn’t vote for Howard for NL MVP-just for team MVP. However, I won’t tell you who I WOULD vote for (had I a vote to cast), because all it would do would be to wind you up all over again. Does your spring EVER wear down?

Peace Brother. You’ve out talked me yet again. Not with logic that anyone other than you apparently finds compelling-but by sheer power of having more stamina than this Fossil (at least to your way of thinking) can muster. Sometimes it is no longer worth trying to convince the wall that’s missing a mortar joint to fix itself, or even to realize it is in need of repair.

By Kentavo

September 25, 2008 6:03 PM | Link to this

I don’t expect the Bravos to land C.C. or Burnett, but a veteran pitcher or two will do wonders so we don’t have to rely on the likes of the Jo-Jos and the Mortons every other day.

I think Jo-Jo will be on the go-go, however, as he’s not impressed Mr. Cox very much.

We probably won’t land Lowe either, though, because his price will probably be inflated.

It’ll probably be something like this in the pecking order:

1. Sabbathia
2. Sheets
3. Lowe
4. Dempster
5. Garland
6. Oliver Perez

I wouldn’t mind seeing Bravos pick up Oliver, since he’s been such a Braves-killer, and it would weaken the Muts.

I’d like to see ‘em pick up some guys who’ve already had T.J. surgery, so we don’t have to go thru that whole rigamarole.

I see ‘em picking up a starting pitcher via free agency rather than an LF with pop. There’s really not too much on the market as far ast LFers, go, outside of Dunn and Manny.

A rotation of Lowe and/or Dempster, Jurrgens, Campillo, Hampton and a choice from the Morton/JoJo/Parr camp would be an improvement, with a jolt in August by the return of Huddy.

As for the bullpen, I’d like to see ‘em: 1. Fork over the cash for Ohman 2. Retain Tavarez 3. Retain Julio 4. Get Moylan Back 5. Gonzo 6. Carlyle 7. Bennett (i’m sitting the fence on this one)

Never want to see Acosta, Boyer, Ridgeway, etc. again.

If Glavine and Smoltz can contribute, all the better, but they’d better not be counted on, only viewed as gravy.

Also, gotta re-sign Norton with the intent of him being the pinch hit weapon. I’d like to see the bench fortified with more vets. I love Prado and Infante, but we need a corner IF with power.

I think Smallbridge’s days are numbered, too, best to trade him while we can.

By Lew

September 25, 2008 6:22 PM | Link to this

Shaun-In a (possibly misguided) attempt at fairness, I’ll make a proposal if you’re amenable to it.

I know Ruben Amaro, Jr., the Phillies Asst. GM. I have his office number and he will accept my call if he’s in his office (if not, I’ll call his Dad, who will have him contact me). If you would accept HIS word, compile a list of 3 or 4 questions relating to who HE thought their MVP this year was and just what weight he and other GM he’s familiar with lend to your “New Age” stats and how much they are taken into account.

Dude, You won’t believe DOB, you won’t believe me and despite no one agreeing with your assesment of Howard/Utley, will you believe what a MLB GM says? I’ll go along with whatever he says. Will you?

Just so you know, I’m not about to call him during a hotly contested Pennant Run. I’ll call when the season is completely over.

By Vote Chipper for the Aaron award! (AKA Run Heap Run)

September 25, 2008 6:25 PM | Link to this

McFann your mann is on the cover of the October issue of Choptalk, if you didn’t know. Lemme know if you can’t find one.

* N Nine* yes, the Aaron award voting is open, as is the Clemente award (Huddy) and the HOF broadcasting award. I posted links this morning before I went to work and either my post didn’t go thru or it was removed but to vote go to the braves homepage and scroll down - its right next to the standings box. Other teams have it right up top but you have to really look for it on the Braves site.

By Adam Smith

September 25, 2008 6:42 PM | Link to this

I forgot who posted awhile back, but someone mentioned how free agency may be impacted by projected disposable income of fans—You think?

You have the President, Treasury Secretary, Head of the Fed and NUMEROUS others talking about “Economic Armageddon” or at the BEST “Prolonged Hoffific Recession”, also MILLIONS losing their jobs, and then you have Scott Boras and other potentates of the “cut” appearing on the screen and in print to tell you how “cc and Sheets need at least 110 million to feed their famlies”. Now, I may be crazy, but I believe Times They Are A Changin.

I think if I’m an owner in a Midwestern city or depressed area anywhere, which might soon include NYC, I would suggest to certain people that in a Time of National Emergency it might be appropriate to turn down the rhetoric. Even if I was to sign somebody, it might be not a good idea to bring him into town on the wings of lost jobs, lower wages and vanished benefits.

Now back to fun and games.

By McFann ;Ô;

September 25, 2008 6:48 PM | Link to this

Vote Chipper for the Aaron award! (AKA Run Heap Run)—

Thanks! No, I didn’t know! I’ll definitely look for it the next time we’re at a bookstore! (Which will prob’ly be sooner rather than later.)

Hey, no Grove tonight, either. His left hand is still sore. Wonder if he’ll play any more regular season games…

So that the Silver Slugger Watch for tonight!

By Jeff R

September 25, 2008 6:50 PM | Link to this

I wouldn’t sign pitchers on a stop-gap basis. I’d rather see Wren acquire younger talent that can meld into the group of youngsters coming along in 2010. The Braves do have a few chits to play on the trade market. Wren showed in the Jurrjens deal that he can leverage older players well.

And why would Lowe want to sign with the Braves, who aren’t likely to compete next season? He’s 36 and has limited shelf life. If his agent can swing a deal, he’s going to a contender. Contract money is only one component a player considers (or a player’s agent). Endorsement money counts as well. Lowe can make more somewhere other than Atlanta and have a shot at post-season. THe Braves need to get younger.

Shaun - Lew and you can bicker another whole night and day about OBP. And about Chipper’s rankings. All I know is that Chipper has averaged 40 missed games a season for far too long. Unless he proves to be more durable, 2009 should be his last as a Brave. Talented guy, but way past warranty.

By Steve from OH

September 25, 2008 6:52 PM | Link to this

Coach, Minnesota is 5th in hitter VORP in the American League. Their 86 wins rank, in said league,….5th. Oh, no. Did I just use VORP again? How silly of me. How useless it is, I guess. Their hitter VORP is almost identical to the White Sox, who they are tied with in wins.

Or how about how their runs against/game is 14th in MLB and 9th in the AL. Their pitcher VORP? 15th and 9th, respectively. Oops, there I go again. Citing useless stats, it seems.

The Twins rank 8th in OBP in MLB. They are 9th in the MLB in wins. Their pythagorean record is almost identical to their current record.

Seems like their statistics match up pretty well with their win totals.

And I am still waiting for your proof, if you can muster it, sir.

By Metropolitan Man

September 25, 2008 6:53 PM | Link to this

WE, the METS fans still believe. No matter what, we will make the playoffs so laugh it up now, but 2 teams from the NL East will be playing in October while the braves are already on their 5th hot stove conversation. Good job with the philthies but at this point, all you did was ruin dratf picks. I can feel your negative mojo and tonight Pedro will see his last REGULAR SEASON game as a MET. Out with the old, in with the new.

By Steve from OH

September 25, 2008 6:54 PM | Link to this

Lew, that seems fair. Could you also ask him if he has A) heard of EqA and VORP, B) Thinks they are good statistics, and C) either uses them or considers them when making player personnel decisions?

Thanks. That’s also really cool that you can call up a guy like that for a question. I’m jealous.

By McFann ;Ô;

September 25, 2008 7:00 PM | Link to this

MetMan—

That’s all well and good, but I think you mets fans owe us BRAVES fans an apology.

You said the BRAVES would finish third, and well…looks like you were wrong.

Let’s have it…

By JEB

September 25, 2008 7:00 PM | Link to this

DOB How does Houston look right now? Can you still observe alot of the hang over damages from IKE?? How bad was the area around the stadium affected?

By MiamiBeachBravesFan

September 25, 2008 7:08 PM | Link to this

After Adam Smith’s lofty thoughts, here’s another one to ponder…

With America in the throes of a recession that will be with us for the next several years, suffice it to say that good ol’ Liberty Media will be owning the Bravos for some time to come. A bad thing because they will want to sell the Braves high, not low. With fiscal prudence the new buzz behavior in corporate America, LibMed will NOT raise payroll, as projected earlier this season.

(Unless they made Arthur Blank a promised side deal as salve for the lost opportunity of buying the Braves by selling them to him down the road. Then again, can Artie B afford to crack out a check that big in this present climate?)

Scott Boras, et. al., need to go take a powder; teams need to stand pat, lower payroll, and stay with the home-grown stuff. Manny, Tex, C.C., and A.J. will have to lump it. I’ll bet now that whatever offer the Braves made earlier in the season to Tex will probably be the best he sees this year - and next.

By Shaun

September 25, 2008 7:13 PM | Link to this

*Vote Chipper for the Aaron award! *

How can we vote for him? He doesn’t rank in the top 60 in the majors in homers or RBI.

By Jeff R

September 25, 2008 7:14 PM | Link to this

Speaking of third baseman, the Pirates made it official, signing Pedro Alvarez to a reported $6.5 million contract. According to reports, the Pirates front office will fast track Alvarez to the Majors. If all goes well, he may be the Pirates starting third sacker on opening day, 2010.

In the meantime, the Pirates have Neil Walker at their AAA affiliate in Indy. Walker’s ranked currently as the number 2 prospect in the organization, 61st in the minors. With Alvarez expected to rise fast, Walker really has nowhere to go, especially since the Pirates acquired 3B Andy LaRoche before the trading deadline.

Don’t know how Braves scouts would compare Walker versus Braves third base prospect Eric Campbell. But Walker may be a pick up opportunity for the Braves.

By Nelson

September 25, 2008 7:16 PM | Link to this

DOB: My question is: Have kelly Johnson any problem with his right arm that keeps him off playing outfield where he really belongs???? Apparently Bobby and the entire organizacion are the only ones who didn’t see that he is a bad second base player, and that fly-ball wasn’t the only mistake he made!!!!

By Steve from OH

September 25, 2008 7:17 PM | Link to this

Check out this nice gesture by Eric Gagne.

By keylargo

September 25, 2008 7:19 PM | Link to this

2 - 0 Cubs over muts. Cubs have a AAA lineup tonight.

By Efrim

September 25, 2008 7:25 PM | Link to this

Steve from OH and Shaun

Wow, some debate you guys are having with most of the other bloggers here. I remember a while back, last year actually, when the Pirates hired their new GM Neil Huntington. Neyer had Huntington’s response of a question he had in his Q&A from Pirates.com. The link is below. It’s the first question that is answered. I’m not saying it is right or wrong, but honestly, that is the type of response I want to hear from my GM. Evaluating talent by using some of the traditional measurements, and some of the newer ones. Makes sense to me at least. Anyway. Here is the link:

http://pittsburgh.pirates.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20071101&contentid=2290860&fext=.jsp&cid=pit&vkey=news_pit

By Bobby's Cox

September 25, 2008 7:26 PM | Link to this

Wait,

Tonight Pedro starts for the Mets.

Gallardo starts for Milwaulkee.

Looks to me metro man that the Mets will start the final weekend looking to get in down 1 game, not vice versa.

You wish to revise your statements, or would you rather grab a brewsky?

2-0 Cubs, 1st inning. Gonna be a long night for you and Mets fans, and an even longer offseason.

By bruce

September 25, 2008 7:29 PM | Link to this

McFann * July 27, 2008—the Reaper thought he was playing football* your 9:41 this morning…

Well, here is what I think of that… If Victorino was playing football, he would have at least gotten a personal foul penalty and probably after further review by the NFL afterward, because Brian was knocked out and unable to play, Victorinio would have been fined and suspended. That might have happened in MLB if either Bobby or Brian had said helmet to head contact is dirty.

Our good guys let him off the hook and saved Victorino’s career reputation, not sure why, except that they are good guys.

By Shaun

September 25, 2008 7:32 PM | Link to this

From a May 15, 2007 article on Baseball Prospectus:

So, as a famous man recently asked, what’s VORP? VORP is a statistic developed by Keith Woolner, who just on Monday joined the Cleveland Indians’ front office.

By David O'Brien

September 25, 2008 7:35 PM | Link to this

Apparently Bobby and the entire organizacion are the only ones who didn’t see that he is a bad second base player…Nelson

Well, if that’s the case, Kelly’s probably better off than if Bobby and the entire organization were the only ones who thought he stunk at second base, huh? Since their opinions are a bit more important in these decisions than yours and mine.

As for whether his arm could handle LF, I don’t know why not. He occasionally has a wrap on his elbow, but I think that’s more from overuse because he does so much extra work in the infield and hitting (Cox told me yesterday that if anything, Kelly works waaay too much at times, runs himself down from all the extra work).

But I think Kelly is more valuable as a potential 10-triple, 20-homer, 80-RBI man at 2B than in LF. Braves can get a power hitter for LF, and one who plays it a lot better than Kelly, who was not very good defensively in the OF, you might recall.

Hey, is he great defensively at 2B? No. He’s mediocre. But really, aside from the dropped popup, how many games has he cost the Braves defensively? I mean, he’s helped them win more than he’s helped them lose, hasn’t he? I’m just asking. And just saying, it’s easier to get a power-hitting LF than a 2B as productive offensively as Johnson. He ranks in the top two or three NL second basemen in a lot of major offensive categories.

By Burn After Reading

September 25, 2008 7:38 PM | Link to this

Bobby’s Cox Francoueur is 1029 out of 1032 players in baseball in VORP. The only players worse? Andruw Jones (1030), Corey Patterson (1031), and ex-brave prospect Tony Pena Jr. (1032). Too many braves affiliates at the end of that list, eh?

Reading last night’s box score, it became evident (if it wasn’t already) who the hole in the lineup is.

Please Wren, know that this is not a slump. Frenchy is done! Get rid of him!

By David O'Brien

September 25, 2008 7:40 PM | Link to this

JEB, I haven’t been downtown where Minute Maid Park is. I’m staying out by the Galleria, drove past Reliant and Astrodome on way here from Hobby Airport.

Saw a lot of blue tarps on houses flying in. A whole lot. But other than that and the street lights that were still bent over at an intersection near the airport, I didn’t notice a lot of other damage. But I really haven’t gotten a good look.

By Steve from OH

September 25, 2008 7:44 PM | Link to this

DOB, that’s a good analysis of Kelly. I agree about the LF idea: I don’t like his bat in left nearly as much as I do at 2B.

By Shaun

September 25, 2008 7:44 PM | Link to this

I’m betting Shaun could never even begin to grasp how the Twins are 86-72 and still fighting for a playoff spot.

Huh, Coach? Easy one. They are third in on-base and 10th in slugging playing half their games in a pitcher’s park, and their pitching is decent enough. It’s easy to understand why they are 86-72 and still fighting for a playoff spot. Also it’s easy to understand why they aren’t running away with the AL Central or why they won’t win many more than 90 games if they reach 90.

By Bobby's Cox

September 25, 2008 7:45 PM | Link to this

bruce

Nonsense.

Darrin Erstad never got fined or suspended in 2005 for his hit on Johnny Estrada.

Bobby, nor our guys thought that hit was clean.

Erstad was never fined or suspended for that dirty play.

By Steve from OH

September 25, 2008 7:47 PM | Link to this

Here’s a link to the article Efrim was talking about.

By Shaun

September 25, 2008 7:49 PM | Link to this

DOB, amen about Kelly Johnson. That’s one thing we can agree on. People have been down on Kelly Johnson all season (somewhat understandable). Now they have disappeared for the most part.

By keylargo

September 25, 2008 7:50 PM | Link to this

This guy cut off 4 fingers and is back in the big leagues. He threw out Ryan Church to end the 2nd inning. Here is a story about his accident and comeback

Koyie Hill’s return to the Cubs on Monday is one of the more inspirational stories in a most remarkable season.

The 29-year-old catcher, who played for the Cubs last year and was called up from Triple-A Iowa on Monday morning, had his right thumb and three fingers on his right hand sewn back on after nearly losing them completely in a table saw accident. Not only did Hill make a complete comeback, he also retained his sense of humor.

Sully “You had to learn how to give high fives all over again,” he said.

It happened last Oct. 16th when Hill, an aspiring architect, was making a window frame for his house. The table saw he was using got stuck in the wood and managed to cut through his thumb, his pinky finger, ring finger and middle finger, leaving him bloodied and obviously in severe pain.

Hill was eventually taken to the emergency room, and a hand specialist was called upon to reattach the fingers.

While Hill was in spring training with the Cubs last spring, he made no mention of the injury and asked the Cubs not to reveal it. After months of rehab and the help of Iowa hitting coach Von Joshua, Hill said he was able to get used to the new hand, which he joked was “built” for baseball.

“Catching is easy,” Hill said. “Thank God it wasn’t my left hand. They added enough bones to my middle finger to where it moves some. They had me hold a ball in my left hand to see where my finger was placed so when they sewed it back on it was fixed in a position. So you could say it was actually built for playing baseball now, which is something a baseball player always wanted.”

The switch-hitting Hill batted .275 at Iowa with 17 home runs, 24 doubles and 64 RBIs in 113 games, after being told by doctors after the accident that his career was likely over. He even considered having his pinky amputated to help him return quicker.

“Now (the hand) is as good, or a little better,” he said. “I’ve been lucky enough to even be able to play. To be back here is a dream come true within itself. I never had a doubt I would play again. I just didn’t know what level and what limitations my hand (was) going to allow me to play.

“Like I said, I just lucked out. It’s been a group effort. The Cubs have been behind me the whole time. I remember talking to (general manager Jim Hendry) about three or four days after the accident. We were talking about whether to the leave fingers on or off so I could come back faster. And he’s been behind me the whole time.

“The organization kept me in the lineup down there. The first couple of months, when it was 30 degrees, I felt like I had frozen carrots for fingers. It didn’t feel good to hold a bat, let alone swing it. To make contact was even worse. It was probably a blessing I wasn’t making much of it.”

Hill’s story resonated with his teammates at Iowa, where he’s considered a legend.

“What can you say?” Micah Hoffpauir said. “The guy come in at the beginning of the year and it’s cold and there were times when I don’t think he could hardly move his hand. But he battled through it and it’s a great story. He’s definitely come back. He led the team. Everybody said I was the team leader, but I disagree. I think Koyie Hill was definitely our team leader. He did a great job and took care of business.”

rated 4.95 by 38 people [?]

By McFann ;Ô;

September 25, 2008 7:54 PM | Link to this

Bruce—

Yeah, they’re good guys…and I like that they’re good guys, but I still wish they woulda hit ‘im.

Well, after yesterday’s on-field “display”, how ‘bout this: Opening Day 2009, the Reaper’s first at-bat…

Ah, I cann just keep dreaming. But I do like that our team is made up of good guys (Tavarez notwithstanding).

Bobby’s Cox—

No, he didn’t get fined or suspended, but he does have a reputation.

Did our guys didn’t hit Erstad? If not, sheesh…

By Efrim

September 25, 2008 8:05 PM | Link to this

Steve from OH

Thanks man. By the way, did you see the Sally League’s top 20? A LOT of talent in the Sally league this year. Would of been nice to see them rank Freeman higher. But I don’t look too much into those rankings until they come out with their Top 100.

By Lew

September 25, 2008 8:17 PM | Link to this

SteveFromOh-Well, it’s mostly like they say-Location, location, location. From the time I was three until I started College (moved to Georgia to do it), his Mom and her family were my next door neighbors. I’ve known his Dad, Ruben, Sr., since he got married (gave me my first baseball autograph-a ‘64 Phillies’ ball my brother used to play catch with the dog). I’ve stayed in touch through the years. His Dad is Heading the Latin American scouting program for the White Sox. He’s a pretty great guy, who SHOULD have been a ML manager. He would have been a good one. He was one of Shawn Dunston’s mentors when he coached with the Cubs.

Don’t know that I will get into that much detail with him (specific stats), as he IS a pretty busy guy (DOB will tell you all GM’s and their Assistants are). However, I’m sure I can gain some insight.

By Steve from OH

September 25, 2008 8:20 PM | Link to this

Efrim, yes I did. I was surprised about Freeman, too, but I was more surprised that Cody Johnson squeaked in at #20. I guess the scouting report on him is just that good. Good to see that we put 5 good prospects in there. Some people were freaking out about Bumgarner over Heyward but I thought that was a good choice.

Do you subscribe to BA? Because they posted a scouting report on the players in the Southern League playoffs, and I was wondering if you saw it. I (unfortunately) don’t subscribe but I plan to soon. The article was subscriber only, that’s why I ask. Do you find it to be a good value?

By Bobby's Cox

September 25, 2008 8:26 PM | Link to this

McFann

No, our guys didn’t hit Erstad. They through behind him the next night on the 1st pitch to show their distaste.

They should’ve thrown at his head till they nailed it. They were expecting it.

By McFann ;Ô;

September 25, 2008 8:26 PM | Link to this

Keylargo—

I’d heard about that, thanks for posting it!

I root for him, that’s for sure!

By Bobby's Cox

September 25, 2008 8:51 PM | Link to this

wow, did shaun just admit that it’s understandable why many of us were so upset with Kelly Johnson for most of the year?

Never thought I’d read that.

I ask you shaun, and DOB, why not consider KJ in left field for ‘09 and divert our attention to RF? If you think KJ’s a lock for 20 HR, 10 3B and think his inconsistency has gone away due to the 22-game hitting streak, then why not put him in LF, get a power hitting replacement for 3rd to last in MLB in VORP Jeff Francouer?

And just saying, it’s easier to get a power-hitting LF than a 2B as productive offensively as Johnson

By your reasong DOB, the Braves can certainly do better in RF, right? Wouldn’t it be easier to find a RF better than francouer has been?

By keylargo

September 25, 2008 8:54 PM | Link to this

McFann

You know, I think you are great!! Always positive and just a great asset to this blog.

I would be flirting with you except I’m old enough to be your Daddy, so I’ll just say I sure would be proud of you if you were my daughter!

Your parents have been great to you but you were pretty good to start off with IMO.

By Bobby's Cox

September 25, 2008 8:55 PM | Link to this

wow,

Gallardo is mowing down Pittsburg’s lineup. 7 K through 3.

Think Milwaukee missed him much?

By Bobby's Cox

September 25, 2008 9:02 PM | Link to this

2 on for the cubs in the 7th, no out.

I’m sure there’s no need to post it…the blog seems dead tonight. Everyone’s watching that game I suppose.

By Bobby's Cox

September 25, 2008 9:08 PM | Link to this

Cubs minor league player of the year, Micah Hoffpauir, is 4-4. Just hit a 3-run HR. Mets down 6-3.

Hoffpauir better watch himself next AB.

Milwaukee up 1-0. They may need only 1 run tonight the way Gallardo is pitching, although they may want to limit him in his 1st start back from the ACL injury. Even still, they’ll have Gagne in there later, who will be absolutely pumped up after giving away 5,000 seats for tonight’s game.

By Jeff R

September 25, 2008 9:15 PM | Link to this

As to Kelly Johnson, it all goes back to how aggressive Wren intends to be in the off-season. Johnson is probably the Braves most marketable player. If Wren is serious about rebuilding the starting pitcher, a lot of talks will center around Johnson.

The team could more than survive with Prado at second, even if management isn’t sold on him as a long term proposition. But finding younger arms might require moving Johnson.

By McFann ;Ô;

September 25, 2008 9:20 PM | Link to this

Bobby’s Cox—

Maybe not his head…IMO, you shouldn’t mess with the head—but the shoulder? Yeah, they shoulda nailed him but good!!

Keylargo—

Haha…Thank you!

I have the greatest parents you could ever imagine! I’m truly a very blessed person, I’ll tell you that!

We just got back from an emergency “parsley-run”. My Black Swallowtail caterpillars ran outta food—there’s about 21 caterpillars.

It’s really great parents that let their children bring an average of 40 caterpillars a year into the house, no? (We’ve had about 56 this year between the Monarchs and Swallowtails.)

By Bobby's Cox

September 25, 2008 9:34 PM | Link to this

No McFann

HEAD!

A head for a head? The braves, willing to throw behind Erstad, threw behind him at the legs. Gotta be enough to scare him. Even if you’re not gonna hit him intentially, but want to scare him, at least aim head high, no?

It was a disappointment for sure. I honestly believe if Estrada doesn’t get hurt on that collision, the Braves go to the WS. Estrada was never the same after that, and the Braves were missing that 1 bat against Houston.

By Wayne

September 25, 2008 9:39 PM | Link to this

The catepillars I work with won’t fit in my house!

By Justo

September 25, 2008 9:40 PM | Link to this

DOB,

Please read and answer this question for me. I seriously think that the braves need to really consider trading 3B chipper jones. Don’t get me wrong, I love the guy he is one of my all time favorite braves. But in my opinion he is breaking down, and he is turning into more of a singles hitter. He has different injuries every year, I just do not think the braves can go into next year with him as there 3B because he wont even play 100 games next year, believe it DOB he wont. To me he is breaking down and they need to trade him to an american league team so he can DH. Hopefully the braves can get some real good young talent in return, and let Martin Prado or Infante be your third basemen. And DO NOT BRING BACK HAMPTON OR GLAVINE THEY BOTH ARE OLD AND CANT PITCH ANYMORE GET SOME YOUNG ARMS.

By McFann ;Ô;

September 25, 2008 9:44 PM | Link to this

Bobby’s Cox—

Yeah, maybe aim high, but don’t hit his head. Hit him in the shoulder, hand, or elbow…

Estrada was never the same after that, and the Braves were missing that 1 bat against Houston.

Yeah…true…At least they got five RBI in three games from his replacement. But I agree, Johnny’s bat would have been a HUGE help! He coulda come in at some point during that 18 inning game! Wouldn’t ya love to know what the results woulda been? Dangit…

By McFann ;Ô;

September 25, 2008 9:48 PM | Link to this

Wayne—

O…K…

By Couch Tater

September 25, 2008 9:54 PM | Link to this

End of the 1st Quarter

Oregon State 7 USC 0

By Wayne

September 25, 2008 9:55 PM | Link to this

McFann Large, and yellow….

By McFann ;Ô;

September 25, 2008 9:57 PM | Link to this

Dang…the Mets just tied the game 6-6, and they’re still batting in the 8th.

This race has been pretty good these past few days, but I couldn’t care less who wins it!

Night, all!

By Couch Tater

September 25, 2008 10:00 PM | Link to this

Make that: Oregon State 14 USC 0

By bclontz

September 25, 2008 10:03 PM | Link to this

Still think we will all be better served to visit the minor league parks next year and show the higher ups that that haven’t got us hopelessly hooked on failure! We need to ask for cheaper tickets, more respect for our feelings, and less acceptance of half hearted effort on the part of these over paid ego maniacs. We need a coach who will tell a player what he needs to do, then sit his butt down when he ignores it. Practice will be mandatory and golf will be played only after a productive days practice! Respect for your manager will be because he did the right thing, not the popular thing. If you need to file for disability, do it during the off season. If you can’t play 100 per cent, then stay home and let someone else play. Toughen up a little, suck it up, stop missing games because you have a hang nail! Stop whining, you get paid too much money for your services. Give TP his bonus and let him retire…it ain’t working! But then what do I know? I’m only a fan!

By THB

September 25, 2008 10:04 PM | Link to this

What do you all think is realistic for the Braves offseason plans?

I think they could find a match with a team like the Tigers for Magglio Ordonez. I think they can sign one of O. Perez, D. Lowe, or R. Dempster. We’re gonna need another top of the rotation starter to compete though. We may need to trade for a guy like Peavy or Oswalt if we really think we’re gonna compete for the WS. That’s two big trades, and a lot of prospects. We’d have to give us Hanson and Heyward for Peavy, and probably one of them if not both for Oswalt. I think we should try to sign O. Perez and Lowe and let JJ be our #3. That’s about 30 million per year right there, plus whatever we add on for Magglio. I’m not sure our pitching problems will be solved this year.

By N Nine

September 25, 2008 10:06 PM | Link to this

emergency “parsley-run McFann

Careful Mcturtle likes caterpillars! 21 of them,wow! Discovery Channel at McFann’s