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Wednesday, September 24, 2008
Kotchman, Kelly, Hampton … will all be back?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Philadelphia — So, are the denizens feeling a little more at ease regarding first baseman Casey Kotchman after watching him the last few weeks? I know the Braves are.
Their new first baseman struggled mightily after being traded from Anaheim for Mark Teixeira. He played defense at a Gold Glove-caliber level, like Teixeira, but the bat … absolutely woeful early on. Groundout after groundout to the right side.
But now look at him. Kotchman is playing like the guy the Angels were reluctant to give up, like a guy who could become a .300-20-100 guy someday. Hey, I said “could.”
He’s hit .323 (20-for-62) with two homers, 11 RBI and a .408 OBP and .452 slugging percentage in his past 17 games, including last night’s decisive homer off Cole Hamels, his third in three games against the Phillies ace this season.
Quite a turnaround for Kotchman, who hit .149 with no homers, five RBI and a .256 OBP and .203 slugging percentage in his first 22 games for the Braves.
A lot of people have asked me if the Braves are comfortable with the right side of their infield, or if they’ll try to upgrade at second base or first base.
I usually answer, ‘Who the hell am I, Frank Wren?”
No, just kidding. As I’ve said before, the Braves didn’t trade for Kotchman and Wren talk him up as an affordable, solid 1B for the next few years, only to give up on him based on three weeks of struggling after the trade. He’s their guy for next season, at least from everything I’m told.
As for Kelly, with his torrid late-season push, including his current 21-game hitting streak, he’s certainly building a strong case for being retained as the starting second baseman. I get a sense, from talking to more than one team official, that the team is pleased with Kelly, just want him to be more consistent.
The defense, many of us have noted, can get ugly form time to time. But when I asked Bobby Cox about it yesterday, the manager looked at me like I was crazy. “Kelly’s great,” Cox said. “He was great last year.”
So there. Make of that what you will. Keep in mind, though, this is Johnson’s second full season in the majors and second season playing second base at any level.
As for the numbers, they’re becoming pretty special: He’s hit .415 with 18 RBI during his 21-game hitting streak, the longest streak in the National League this season. He’s hit .423 with 15 extra-base hits (three homers) and a 1.289 OPS in his past 20 games.
And after hitting .264 with a .336 OBP and .416 slugging percentage in his first 90 games through July 22, Johnson has hit .322 with a .372 OBP and .505 slugging percentage in his past 56 games, despite a cold spell in the middle of that latter period.
Cutting the fastball: After last night’s game Bobby Cox was raving about how good Mike Hampton’s cutter (that’s a cut fastball) was against the Phillies. Then we went into the clubhouse to talk to players, and Hampton said the cutter was, indeed, vastly improved and a key to last night’s success.
“That’s the best (cutter) I’ve had this year. Felt good to have that as a weapon, to be able to keep them off the sinker as much as possible. Definitely good tonight.”
Talking to Hampton after a game, you’re reminded of how different it is than talking to most of the pitchers we’ve talked to since the rash of injuries robbed the Braves of their veterans.
He knows exactly what he wants to do out there and approaches a game well-prepared, then afterward he’s able to discuss what worked or didn’t.
“Their lineup’s tough,” he said. “There’s not much breathing room anywhere. Lot of times, you look at lefty-lefty matchups and think you’ve got an advantage, but those guys are as good as it gets from the left side.
“I feel fortunate with the outcome. We just battled. Mac and I worked well tonight. That was a big out when he threw out [Shane] Victorino.”
Lefties have actually hit Hampton better than righties have this season, though much of that is probably due to the fact that teams usually only keep their best lefty hitters in the lineup against him.
Lefties have hit .357 (20-for-56) with a .387 OBP and .589 slugging against him, compared to .272 (59-for-217) and .347 OBP/.456 by righties.
But enough numbers. Question is, will Hampton listen if the Braves make him an offer? We don’t know if the Braves will make one, but I’m thinking that because of their unusual situation with Smoltz and Glavine possibly returning, and given Hampton’s injury history and the Braves rash of injuries the past couple of years, they might decide they can’t tie up any money with Hampton.
What do you guys think? I know there are certainly passionate views on the subject.
I don’t know, though. I don’t have a strong feeling either way about their intentions, and I don’t know if Braves have even discussed it seriously yet. I do know he’s shown he can still be an effective pitcher, and there’s some reason to believe he’d continue to get better as long as he stays healthy.
In his past eight starts, Hampton is 2-2 with a 3.63 ERA and seven quality starts (six or more innings, three or fewer earned runs). He’s allowed two earned runs in each of his past three starts, and the Braves scored three runs or fewer while he was in each of his past six starts.
So, did he allow himself to think that last night might have been his last Braves start?
“No,” he said. “There’s just too much left up in the air. Who knows what’s going to happen. I can’t play scenarios. I’ve just got to go out there and pitch, and prove to everybody that I can still do it. I know I can, and hopefully there’s people out there that like what they see.”
As you all probably know by now, there’s a possibility Hampton will start the season finale Sunday at Houston against the Astros, the team he was with when he had his career-best 22-win season in 1999 (and was Cy Young runner-up to Randy Johnson).
That’s Jair Jurrjens’ turn, but the talented kid has already thrown 188-1/3 innings, more than 40 above his previous career high. Hampton was uncomfortable with the thought of Jurrjens feeling any pressure to let the veteran make the start, and said he’d talk to the rookie just to see what he was thinking.
Cox said it’s up to Hampton. Jurrjens indicated last week that he wouldn’t be opposed to stepping aside. So we’ll see.
Howard for MVP? Ryan Howard went 2-for-2 with a triple and two walks last night against the Braves, which should probably be considered a moral victory for Atlanta pitchers — they kept him in the park, and he got no RBI.
Dude is a beast against about everyone, but an absolute force against Atlanta, with a .313 average, 20 extra-base hits (13 homers), 43 RBI and .741 slugging percentage in his past 30 games against the Bravos, including 22 Philly wins.
(We might add that Pat Burrell has also become a Braves destroyer, with six homers and 12 RBI in his past 13 games against them, including 11 Philly wins.)
Anyway, Howard. There’s a growing case for Big Ryan as MVP, and his huge September (.347-8-27) has vaulted him into the group of frontrunners.
As noted today in USA Today, if his current average (.248) holds up, he could be the first MVP with a batting average under .250 since Darrel Evans hit .248 with 40 homers in 1985.
So I was thinking that Howard’s basic stats are very similar to Andruw’s in 2005, when Andruw was MVP runner-up. And I just checked them out and was surprisedat just how similar they really were — with a couple of glaring exceptions.
Andruw hit .263 with 24 doubles, three triples, majors-leading 51 homers, 128 RBI, .347 OBP and .575 slugging percentage, with 64 walks and 112 strikeouts.
Howard has hit .248 with 25 doubles, four triples, majors-leading 46 home runs, 141 RBI, .338 OBP and .534 slugging percentage, with 81 walks and a whopping 195 strikeouts. He also leads the majors with 34 RBI that gave his team a lead.
Given Andruw’s still-Gold Glove caliber defense at that time, and Howard’s mediocre defense at first base, the clear edge in seasonal performance would appear to go to Andruw’s 2005, if you stacked them side-by-side.
But look a little deeper. Howard will probably end up with 145 RBIs to Jones’ 128, despite the lower batting average and all the strikeouts.
Reason is simple: Howard has hit .303 with 25 homers with runners on base, and .312 (54-for-173) with runners in scoring position.
Andruw hit .236 with 19 homers with runners on base and a woeful .207 (38-for-184) with runners in scoring position.
If he had hit Howard’s .312 with runners in scoring position, in 184 at-bats, Jones would probably have had 150-155 RBIs and very likely won the MVP award.
Etc. I’m thinking Chipper Jones will play at least a couple of games this weekend at Houston, where he’s got a .416 career average with seven homers and 27 RBI in 27 games…. Will Ohman is tied for the major league lead with 83 relief appearances, one shy of matching Chris Reitsma’s franchise record…. The Braves have hit .287 with a .360 OBP and .463 since the All-Star break, after hitting .245 with a .320 OBP and .391 slugging percentage before the break. However, they have a 5.65 ERA and 25-38 record since the break, after posting a 3.69 ERA and 45-50 record prior to the break.
A tune to close. Gonna go with another of the great tunes from The Baseball Project’s first album, Vol. 1: Frozen Ropes and Dying Quails. We’ve noted it here a few times, how this is a bunch of cool musicians — including R.E.M’s Peter Buck, and Steve Wynn of the old Dream Syndicate — who happen to be hardcore baseball fans and got together to do an album of baseball-themed tunes, but this isn’t your typical cheesy baseball-song fare. These guys are all rockers and the music is outstanding, including my favorite song, Ted [Bleeping] Williams, the actual title of which I can’t write here.
Here’s the intro to this song from the liner notes: After winning his third Cy Young Award and cementing his status as the best pitcher in the game, Sandy Koufax of the Los Angeles Dodgers ponders the pros and cons of an early retirement at age 30. With a sore arm riddled with cortisone shots, Sandy did quit the game that season and was voted into the Hall of Fame five years later, the youngest player to ever achieve that honor.
”LONG BEFORE MY TIME” by Steve Wynn
The summer game has let me down
Standing lonely on the mound
A crossroads only I can see
Between oblivion and destiny
My mind and body say I’m done
But something says I must go on
Conventional wisdom does implore
You give it all and then give some more
Summer slowly turns to fall
It’s so hard to walk away from it all
Long before my time
My agent says I need to move
What do I have left to prove?
I falter when I hold my ground
For a couple of bucks you can keep me around
You’re only young just once, I know
But history will always show
You pad your best days with the chaff
A tarnished faded photograph
Dandy Don and Warren Spahn
Tell me that I must go on
I must go on, I can’t go on, I must go on, I can’t go on….
