AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2008 > September > 22
Monday, September 22, 2008
Braves’ final shot vs. nemesis Phils
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Philadelphia — Greetings from the only city where the Braves have won a game against the Phillies in the past 365 days.
Yes, the Bravos have played the dastardly Phillies 18 times in the last calendar year, and won but thrice. All three wins were in Philadelphia — on Sept. 25, 2007, and this season on May 14 and July 25.
That’s it. That’s all. The Phillies have won the other 15 games between the teams, including 12 of the past 13 — one reason they’re sitting in first place in the NL East, 1-1/2 games behind the Mets, who are hanging in there, but have been lurching and threatening to fold the past week or two.
But back to the Phillies. Most of you are aware they are 13-2 against the Braves this season, including 9-0 at Turner Field. But did you realize the Phillies also won their final two games against the Braves in 2007?
Yes, that means they’re 15-2 against the Braves since Sept. 26. Staggering, isn’t it? Unbelievable. As the Braves would say, you tip your cap (and maybe shine their shoes while you’re at it — seriously, that’s some dominance.)
The Braves have posted a 5.90 ERA and batted .247 with 18 homers in those 17 games, and scored three runs or fewer in 10 of them.
The Phillies, meanwhile, have posted a 3.45 ERA and batted .303 with 30 homers in those 17 games, while scoring five runs or more in 13 of them.
Ouch.
As for Mr. Ryan Howard, he’s played all 17 of those games and hit a gaudy .358 with seven homers and 26 RBI.
Here’s one stat I stumbled upon. Before going 0-2 on Thursday at Turner Field, Howard had a 19-game hitting streak against the Braves in which he’d batted .355 with nine homers, 29 RBI and a 1.226 OPS (.789 slugging). Crazy numbers, folks.
OK, about this series: After a pretty dismal season, the Braves are at least finishing with a pretty encouraging month. They’re seeing some good things, some talent and spark, out of a few young players, and good attitudes from some others who could have gone through the motions in these last weeks.
But this Philly thing, it’s something they haven’t found an answer to. The Phillies beat them in low-scoring games, high-scoring games, close games and blowouts. At Turner Field, they beat them every time, including once after a routine popup was dropped by Kelly Johnson with two outs in the ninth with the Braves ahead.
If the Braves could come into Philly and win a series, it could really help get some of that bitter taste out of the Braves’ mouths. But it’s a big “if,” obviously.
In case you haven’t noticed, the Phillies are beating everyone lately, not just the Braves. Howard, Hamels, Utley, Rollins, Burrell and the rest are 9-1 with 60 runs and a 3.84 ERA in their past 10 games, including a sweep of the Brewers that got Ned Yost fired, and three one-run road wins (two at Atlanta, one at Florida).
(The Braves, at their current pace, would require about four years to get three one-run road wins … hey, I’m just saying.)
The Phillies have homered in all 10 of those games, including four multi-homer games. Did I mention that Braves home-run leader Brian McCann would only be tied for fourth on the Phillies’ home-run roll?
The Phillies have a lineup lined with power and plenty of speed. The Braves haven’t had much of either this season, and their modest power went to league-worst power after Teixeira was traded and Chipper stopped hitting homers.
The Braves’ speed has also been close to league-worst all season, in terms of stolen bases. We’ve seen in the past couple of weeks what just a few steals here and there can do to impact a game, particularly if you’re not hitting for power.
In other words, if you’re not hitting homers, you better be able to manufacture some runs other ways. Braves can’t make that same mistake again next year; they need to add some power, but also need to have more speed than they displayed this season. Plain and simple.
Since all signs point to the traditioinal power positions of third base, first base and right field being manned again by Chipper, Casey Kotchman and Jeff Francoeur, who might not hit more than about 75 homers between them, the Braves had best add power elsewhere, and perhaps also think more about speed than they did when this year’s team was built. And about how to utilize that speed.
Oh, how to win this series: Almost forgot. Getting back to that point. First of all, the Braves need Chipper Jones to play, at least a game or two in the series. If the shoulder’s too sore, then hey, it’s too sore. But if he’s able to get out there and play at anything close to his customary self, they’re better off with him than anyone else they have at full strength.
In 10 games against the Phillies this seaon, Chipper has a .424 average in 33 at-bats with five doubles, three homers, 14 walks and a .596 OBP and .848 slugging percentage. Problem is, Braves have played 15 games against them (16 after tonight). So he’s missed a handful or slightly more.
In his career against the Phillies, Chipper has a .339 average with 54 doubles and 40 homers in 188 games, with a .459 OBP and .622 slugging percentage. Hey, this just in: This cat is really good at baseball.
B-Mac also has a .340 average with three homers, 16 RBI and a 1.108 OPS in 15 games against the Phils this season.
And the surging Kelly Johnson also has five homers and 14 RBI in 17 career games at Citizens Bank, the ballpark that replaced The Vet (thereby handing the undisputed Most Decrepit Ballpark to Shea — but where will the “honor” fall now that Shea’s closing?)
Johnson has hit safely in every Braves game in September, a 19-game hitting streak in which he’s batted .405 (30-for-74) with 13 extra-base hits (three triples, two homers), 15 RBI and a .676 slugging percentage.
It’s a career-best hitting streak and longest active streak in the majors, and during that streak he’s hit .545 (12-for-22) in six road games.
If Johnson could just iron out the peaks/valleys in his game, if he could produce the numbers he produces in a season but do it a little more evenly from month to month, he’d have a secure future for years with the Braves. Maybe he does anyway, I don’t know. I’m just saying….
Chipper’s run: He’s almost certainly going to win the batting title, whether he does it on the field or from the bench (and yes, that’s not the way to do it, if you have any choice in the matter).
But anyone watching Hoss knows he’s not been the force that he was in the first months of the season, when he was the best all-around hitter in baseball. (It says plenty about how opponents view him that he would get intentionally walked yesterday in that situation, despite everyone knowing he’s been out with a bum shoulder).
Jones has hit .339 with only two homers in 115 at-bats in 33 games since Aug. 9, and actually has a higher OBP (.465) than slugging percentage (.461) in that span, with 28 walks and 18 strikeouts.
Here’s a startling stat: He has as many stolen bases (two) as homers in that period.
Chipper got a huge standing ovation when he came to the plate to pinch-hit in that eighth-inning situation Sunday (Mets walked him, and Prado made them pay with the big hit).
My question: Is it possible, even remotely a possibility, that that was Chipper’s last at-bat as a Brave at Turner Field? And my own answer would be, no, there’s almost no chance that was his last at-bat in Atlanta as a Brave.
Because they have no intentions of trading him this winter, and he has 10-and-5 veto privileges even if they did try. Not that Chipper would force the Braves to keep him if they came to him and said they needed to trade him to help the club.
He’s told me, and I believed the sincerity with which he said it, that he’d consider a trade if the Braves thought it made them better. And he’d consider a position switch, but only if the Braves had someone better to play third base.
But again, I’ve been told recently by people who should know, that the Braves are planning on having Chipper in 2009, and having him play third base. But I do think the transition, even if part-time, to first base might happen sooner than later.
Just look at the career of the great third basemen, the Bretts and Schmidts and others. They made the move, at least part-time, to first base at a younger age than Chipper is now (36).
But having said that, I’ll add that most nights, Chipper has been a well-above-average defensive third baseman. But you can see the age creeping in some nights, for sure. And just the fact that he’s missing so many more games than he hoped to miss this season.
I still believe Jones will retire a Brave. Jones and Smoltz, both. Braves know it’s important to try to make sure that happens, long as it’s workable. And I think Chipper will play a few more years. Not many 39-year-old third baseman in the history of baseball. Not many Ripkens out there (and, of course, he moved from shortstop late in his career).
OK, running out of time here. Gotta get to the ballpark. Anyone see Kings of Leon play two songs on Saturday Night Live? I don’t know if I’m too thrilled with the direction they seem headed in. But I’ll reserve judgment. I’ll need to hear the album, which is out tomorrow.
Very pleased to see so many of my favorite TV shows get so many Emmys, including Mad Men (as I’ve said, best show on TV since The Wire ended), Damages (very good show that doesn’t seem like it was viewed by many folks I know), Entourage, House, Breaking Bad (pleasantly surprised to see Bryan Cranston win win best actor in a drama) and 30 Rock (hey, I was a Seinfeld freak back in the day, folks, but I gotta say, 30 Rock and The Office are even better, funnier shows today, at least for me. I’m sure plenty will disagree with that assessment.)
Just a shame that The Shield didn’t receive more honors/nominations.
Oh, and I know that your ‘Dawgs have got a brutal stretch coming up, UGA fans, the toughest road of anyone to a potential national title. But I don’t feel sorry for you: My Jayhawks have four upcoming games against Big 12 teams currently ranked in the top nine.
Of course, we also ain’t aiming for a national title. Not in that sport….
Huge lines at the airport this morning. Only thing that calmed me was The Finger Wag. Oh, maybe those who don’t fly Delta much aren’t sure what I’m talking about. The blonde flight attendant in the video they show before takeoff. When she wags that finger and says there is no smoking allowed on any Delta flight … oh, we like.
OK, enjoy the game tonight. Jurrjens going for win No. 14, against the neophyte lefty J.A. Happ.
“DAY AFTER TOMORROW” by Tom Waits
I got your letter today
And I miss you all so much, here
I can’t wait to see you all
And I’m counting the days, dear
I still believe that there’s gold
At the end of the world
And I’ll come home
To Illinois
On the day after tomorrow
It is so hard
And it’s cold here
And I’m tired of taking orders
And I miss old Rockford town
Up by the Wisconsin border
But I miss you won’t believe
Shoveling snow and raking leaves
And my plane will touch tomorrow
On the day after tomorrow
I close my eyes every night
And I dream that I can hold you
They fill us full of lies
Everyone buys
About what it means to be a soldier
I still don’t know how I’m supposed to feel
About all the blood that’s been spilled
Look out on the street
Get me back home
On the day after tomorrow
You can’t deny the other side
Don’t want to die any more than we do
What I’m trying to say,
Is don’t they pray
To the same God that we do?
Tell me, how does God choose?
Whose prayers does he refuse?
Who turns the wheel?
And who throws the dice
On the day after tomorrow?
Mmmmmmm…
I’m not fighting for justice
I am not fighting for freedom
I am fighting for my life
And another day
In the world here
I just do what I’ve been told
You’re just the gravel on the road
And the one’s that are lucky one’s come home
On the day after tomorrow
And the summer it too will fade
And with it comes the winter’s frost, dear
And I know we too are made
Of all the things that we have lost here
I’ll be twenty-one today
I’ve been saving all my pay
And my plane will touch down
On the day after tomorrow
And my plane it will touch down
On the day after tomorrow
.JPG)
-1.JPG)
Services »
