AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2008 > September > 07
Sunday, September 7, 2008
Kelly the cleanup hitter?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
As we were saying about Kelly Johnson the other day, the man is about as streaky as they come. But when he’s hot, he’s seriously smokin’.
This past week, he’s been very hot, which explains why Johnson is batting cleanup today (well, that plus the fact that Brian McCann is out of the lineup, and no other Brave has hit more than four homers since the All-Star break. Seriously, folks, this is one punchless outfit Atlanta’s running out there.)
Johnson is hitting cleanup for the first time in his career, other than a couple of pinch-hit at-bats. He’s now hit in every spot in the order except ninth this season.
K.J., as he’s affectionately known when he’s hitting well, has batted .308 with 18 extra-base hits, 21 RBI and a .365 on-base percentage in his past 41 games, since July 23. But he’s so streaky, even his streaks include streaks.
Here’s what we mean: He hit .391 in 13 games from July 23 to Aug. 5, then .116 (5-for-43) with one double, three RBI, 14 strikeouts and one walk in a dreadful 14-game stretch from Aug. 6-21.
And since then? He’s been ablaze. Johnson has hit .386 with 10 extra-base hits and 12 RBI and a 1.058 OPS in his past 14 games, including 13-for-22 (.591) with six doubles, two homers and 10 RBI during his current streak of five consecutive multi-hit games.
I asked Bobby Cox this morning whether Johnson right now looks like the player that Cox envisioned in 2005, when he famously stuck by the rookie during a 1-for-30 skid at the outset of his career. He kept playing him then, and Johnson responded a week later by hitting .417 with three homers and 11 RBI to win NL Player of the Week honors.
“He still looks like he’s going to get a base hit every time, even when he’s slumping,” Cox said this morning. “He puts up the [overall] numbers pretty good, to me. He’s sure got some big hits lately.”
That’s the frustrating thing about Johnson, that he goes through a seemingly inordinate number of streaks, including more extended slumps than most hitters who produce similar overall statistics to him.
When he’s bad, he’s really bad. When he’s good, he’s one of the best offensive players at his position in the National League. In fact, Johnson leads NL second baseman with 36 doubles.
He’s batting .278 overall with 50 extra-base hits (five triples, nine homers), 60 RBI, 10 stolen bases, a .345 OBP and .432 slugging percentage. Pretty solid for a second baseman in his second full season in the majors, a guy who missed the 2006 season after elbow surgery and switched to 2B in 2007.
Does anyone realize that Johnson ranks eighth in the NL with a .330 average in 112 at-bats with runners in scoring position? Of the seven guys ahead of him, the only two with more at-bats with RISP are Houston hitters: Lance Berkman, who’s hit .352 in 122 at-bats, and Carlos Lee, who’s hit .338 in 139 at-bats.
So why does it feel like Johnson has had such a frankly mediocre season?
He said it himself, when I asked him: Because he’s had two really good months (including this one) and four mediocre ones. He knows it, and Johnson said he also believes he’ll continue to improve and become a more consistent player.
He was right about the two good months thing, which I hadn’t realized until he said it. He hit .355 with 15 extra-base hits and 14 RBI in May, and he’s hit .538 with eight extra-base hits and 10 RBI in six September games.
He hit .250 or lower in the other four full months, including .237 or lower in three. He did hit four homers with 12 RBI in April, the only other month where he’s hit more than two homers or reached double-digits in RBI.
So what do you do with him? I get a sense the Braves are planning to keep him for next season, and that while Martin Prado could get a crack at the job, they really like Prado in a super-utility type role, playing several positions.
As good as Prado was in August, he’s never shown the kind of power or extra-base proclivity that Johnson possesses. Defense is a wash; neither is going to win a Gold Glove at second base.
On a team that’s got so many other holes to fill, including a power-hitting left field, a couple of starting pitchers, another lefty reliever, and perhaps more (right field?), trading Johnson seems unlikely to me. I don’t think the Braves, with so little power now, are willing to have less at second base.
Speaking of punchless…. Did we mention the power is kaput, particularly in the outfield? Oh, we have? A few hundred times?
Well, let’s do it once more.
Braves outfielders have 25 home runs, folks. No, not since the All-Star break. Twenty-five home runs all season.
That’s the fewest of any outfield in the majors - 12 fewer than the next-lowest total in the NL, the Giants’ 37. Eleven NL teams have at least 50 homers from outfielders, while the Braves have 25.
Jeff Francoeur has 10 homers in 519 at-bat, while Nationals sometimes-leadoff hitter Willie Harris has 11 hoemrs in 296 at-bats.
But it’s not just outfielders. McCann has five homers since the break. You know who’s next on the team? Greg Norton, with four homers in 50 at-bats.
No other Brave has more than three homers since the break. Astounding. And besides McCann and Norton, the only other two who have more than two homers since the break are Mark Teixeira, who had three in 10 games after the break, then was traded; and Yunel Escobar, who hit his third since the break last night, a shot to straightaway center.
Chipper and Francoeur have two apiece since the break.
Chipper’s power drought: He’s not getting as many pitches to hit without Teixeira in the lineup, that’s for sure. But Chipper Jones would also be the first to tell you his swing hasn’t been what it was early in the season.
He’s hit .282 (35-for-124) with eight extra-base hits, 18 RBI and a .379 slugging percentage in his past 36 games, after batting .388 with 33 extra-base hits, 50 RBI and a whopping .640 slugging percentage in his first 77 games.
They’ve got tools:Don’t know if many of you saw the last issue of Baseball America, but it was their annual Best Tools issue, and it had a few Braves and/or Braves prospects featured prominently.
The organization had the “Most Exciting Player” in two different A-ball leagues — Gorkys Hernandez for Myrtle Beach in the Carolina League, and Jason Heyward for Rome in the South Atlantic League. Heyward was also the “Best Batting Prospect” in his league, and Hernandez was voted to have the “Best Outfield Arm” in his.
Myrtle’s Brandon Hicks was the “Best Defensive Shortstop” in the Carolina League.
In Double-A, Luis Valdez of Mississippi was rated “Best Reliever” in the Southern League.
And in Triple-A, Charlie Morton was rated the “Best Pitching Prospect” in the International League and Richmond’s Dave Brundage was “Best Manager Prospect.”
The issue also had the Best Tools for the majors, and they had top three in each category for each league (there was only one in each category in each minor league).
The only Braves who made the NL ratings this year were Chipper (second to Pujols in the “Best Hitter” category, and third in “Best Strike-Zone Judgment” behind Todd Helton and Pujols); John Smoltz (third in “Best Slider” behind Jake Peavy and Brad Lidge); and Francoeur (second in “Best Outfield Arm” behind Rick Ankiel).
Oh, and several of you will like this one: Bobby Coxwas once again first in “Best Manager,” ahead of Tony La Russa and Lou Piniella. In the AL, Mike Scioscia was rated “Best Manager” ahead of Ron Gardenhire and Jim Leyland.
OK, gotta cut this short… Game is starting. Here’s a great tune, and I always loved Glen Campbell’s cover version the most.
”GALVESTON” by Jimmy Webb
Galveston, oh Galveston
I still hear your sea winds blowing
I still see her dark eyes glowing
She was twenty-one
When I left Galveston
Galveston, oh Galveston
I still hear your sea waves crashing
While I watch the cannon flashing
And I clean my gun
And I dream of Galveston
I still see her standing by the water
Standing there, looking out to sea
And is she waiting there for me?
On the beach where we used to run
Galveston, oh Galveston
I am so afraid of dying
Before I dry the tears she’s crying
Before I see your sea birds flying
In the sun, at Galveston
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