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July 2008
This Braves deadline day ain’t the same
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Sitting here at the ballpark, waiting to see if the Braves will pull off a a flurry of late-hour trades before the deadline as they did a year ago, but not really expecting them to do anything major.
Certainly not anything to compare with a year ago, when the Braves still had postseason aspirations and then-GM John Schuerholz finalized three deals on deadline day that shipped out a total of seven prospects to fill two needs.
If they trade Will Ohman, as expected, the lefty’s legacy is established - on the back of my car. I asked him for a Big Lebowski bumper sticker that was in his locker yesterday, and he gave it to me on the condition I put it on my car.
The “Phone’s ringin Dude” bumper sticker was applied today, now covering up faded Bloodshot Records sticker that was in that space.
For those who might have forgotten, the Braves a year ago sent five prospects (including Jarrod Saltalamacchia, Elvis Andrus and Matt Harrison) to Texas for first baseman Mark Teixeira and left-handed reliever Ron Mahay.
While Salty, The King (Elvis) and Harrison had been rated the Braves’ top three prospects entering last season, and thus got more attention in that deal, it was actually one of the “other” two prospects they sent to Texas, right-hander Neftali Feliz, whom the Braves regarded as the best of the bunch.
Feliz has been sensational this season in A-ball and Double-A, going 8-3 with a 2.46 ERA and 127 strikeouts and only 35 walks in 102-1/3 innings. That’s one that could haunt the Braves — for a long time.
Elvis is hitting .291 as a 19-year-old shortstop in Double-A, though he has only 11 doubles and two homers in 344 at-bats after totaling 22 doubles and five homers in 495 at-bats last season.
He’s going to be what we thought: Tremendous fielder, no power. But if he hits for that high an average at that young an age in Double-A, well, no doubt he could fit in just fine for a team that doesn’t need any power from shortstop.
I’ve never been sold on Matt Harrison since seeing him in spring training with the Braves. This season in Double-A and Triple-A, he’s 6-3 with a mid-3.00 ERA in 15 minor league starts, and in his first four major league starts he’s 2-1 with a 7.32 ERA. Probably be a back-end rotation starter in the majors, but we’ll see.
Salty? Not sold on him being anything more than a decent major league catcher or a poor-fielding first baseman.
Like I said, Feliz is the one that’s going to bite the Braves, in my opinion. He’s got the makings of an absolute ace. You don’t like losing those kind of guys, ever.
But the Braves have another couple of them down on the farm, Tommy Hanson and Julio Teheran. Something tells me that Frank Wren won’t be trading either of them away anytime soon.
Oh, by the way, the other deals last deadline day: Braves traded Kyle Davies to Kansas City for closer Octavio Dotel, and traded two lefties, Wil Ledezma and former UGA standout Will Startup, to San Diego for lefty Royce Ring.
OK, let’s see if they do anything in the next 90 minutes today.
Speaking of future stars…. In Baseball America’s midseason prospect report (just arrived in my mailbox; I’m sure it’s been online a few days but I was busy), outfielder Jason Heyward and the aforementioned pitcher Tommy Hanson were both on their overall minor league All-Star team.
There are only 14 on the team, so not bad for the Braves, getting two selections. Heyward’s the youngest member of that BA All-Star team, and he’s hitting .323 with nine homers, 45 RBI, 15 stolen bases and a .386 OBP in 93 games for Class A Rome.
Hanson, 21, went 3-1 with an 0.90 ERA and 49 strikeouts in 40 innings in seven starts at high-A Myrtle Beach, and he’s 5-3 with a 4.08 ERA and 63 strikeouts in 64 innings since being promoted to AA Mississippi. He also threw a no-hitter this year.
Oh, one more thing: need to find a song to dedicate to Manny Ramirez, who is establishing a whole new level on the pantheon of jagoff athletes with his recent behavior.
I’ll keep looking while I post this, and you folks can offer suggestions if you’d like.
Six hours later…. We have a winner in the Manny Ramirez tribute song. I can’t believe none of denizens suggested this. I like it best, along with Beck’s “Loser” and Carly Simon’s “You’re So Vain” and a few others that were suggested.
Here’s to Manny:
“MR. BAD EXAMPLE” by Warren Zevon
I started as an altar boy, working at the church
Learning all my holy moves, doing some research
Which led me to a cash box, labeled “Children’s Fund”
I’d leave the change, and tuck the bills inside my cummerbund
I got a part-time job at my father’s carpet store
Laying tackless stripping, and (OK, PROBABLY BEST FOR ME TO TAKE THE REST OF THIS LINE OUT, SORRY ABOUT THAT)
I loaded up their furniture, and took it to Spokane
And auctioned off every last naugahyde divan
I’m very well aquainted with the seven deadly sins
I keep a busy schedule trying to fit them in
I’m proud to be a glutton, and I don’t have time for sloth
I’m greedy, and I’m angry, and I don’t care who I cross
I’m Mr. Bad Example, intruder in the dirt
I like to have a good time, and I don’t care who gets hurt
I’m Mr. Bad Example, take a look at me
I’ll live to be a hundred, and go down in infamy
Of course I went to law school and took a law degree
And counseled all my clients to plead insanity
Then worked in hair replacement, swindling the bald
Where very few are chosen, and fewer still are called
Then on to Monte Carlo to play chemin de fer
I threw away the fortune I made transplanting hair
I put my last few francs down on a prostitute
Who took me up to her room to (OK, GOTTA CENSOR THIS TOO)
Whereupon I stole her passport and her wig
And headed for the airport and the midnight flight, you dig?
And fourteen hours later I was down in Adelaide
Looking through the want ads sipping Fosters in the shade
I opened up an agency somewhere down the line
To hire aboriginals to work the opal mines
But I attached their wages and took a whopping cut
And whisked away their workman’s comp and pauperized the lot
I’m Mr. Bad Example, intruder in the dirt
I like to have a good time, and I don’t care who gets hurt
I’m Mr. Bad Example, take a look at me
I’ll live to be a hundred and go down in infamy
I bought a first class ticket on Malaysian Air
And landed in Sri Lanka none the worse for wear
I’m thinking of retiring from all my dirty deals
I’ll see you in the next life, wake me up for meals
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Hard times at Turner Field
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
A few thoughts before heading back out to the salvage yard, er, Turner Field for the resumption of spill cleanup coverage after the Mark Teixeira-for-Casey Kotchman trade.
But seriously, you should prepare for another trade, one that will ship out funny man left-hander Will Ohman, who is likely to be dealt today or tomorrow (which is unfortunate for us all, because we don’t get nearly enough irreverent humor and Big Lebowski references from players, and, oh yeah, the Braves need to retain a rubber-armed reliever who can get outs against lefties or righties).
With the going rate for setup men having soared through the roof with recent deals for the likes of Dan Wheeler (three years, $10.5 mill) and lefty Ron Mahay (two years, $8 mill), and the Braves already set to pay closer/setup men Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez about $9-10 mill combined for next season, I don’t think they’re even considering the possibility of retaining Ohman and trying to sign him to the kind of multi-year deal he’ll get offered by plenty of clubs.
When I asked him yesterday if he’d heard anything, Ohman said, “That’s a negative, Ghostrider.” (A reference from the cheesefest movie Top Gun; Ohman’s pop-culture references are countless.)
It’s the first time the 30-year-old pitcher has faced this scenario, the likelihood of getting traded at the non-waiver deadline, of being wanted by other contending teams enough to be the center of a possible deadline deal. When the Cubs traded him to the Braves last winter along with Omar Infante in a deal for reliever Jose Ascanio, Ohman had worn out his welcome in Chicago, where he struggled at Wrigley Field and his outgoing personality worked against him.
With the Braves he’s performed and been a team-first guy from the outset, never complaining about anything including how frequently he was used during some brutal stretches when the bullpen was depleted (conversely, whenever asked he’d say he wanted the ball whenever they’d give it to him, and relished having so much responsibility placed upon him by Bobby Cox, who used him in lot of critical situations with games on the line when closers were hurt).
He’s 3-0 with a 2.48 ERA in 55 appearances, fourth-most in the majors. His .200 opponents’ average includes a .160 with a .218 OBP by left-handed hitters. His .194 OA with with runners in scoring position ranks second on the team (minimum 20 at-bats) to John Smoltz’s .179.
And in close-and-late situations, opponents have hit just .102 (5-for-49) with a .170 OBP and .143 slugging percentage against Ohman.
He’s been the Braves’ best reliever, and he’s probably about to follow their RBI leader (Teixeira) out the door. Like Teixeira, Ohman said he’d like to stay.
“Whatever the outcome ends up being, it’s going to be a positive on my end,” Ohman said. “But the thought of having to leave is bittersweet. If I do leave, I’ll have a chance to go to a contender.
“But this is a great organization. Everyone here has treated me well. My family’s enjoyed it down here. The chance to play for Bobby Cox has been a blessing. He’s been awesome. Working with Roger [McDowell], Eddie [Perez], the entire coaching staff.”
After his experience with the Cubs, Ohman has experienced a rejuvenation of sorts in Atlanta, despite the team’s disappointing season.
“On a personal level, it’s been cathartic,” he said. “The bonus is that if I stay [beyond the non-waiver trade deadline Thursday], then we could assume something along the lines of, they [Braves] want to keep me [beyond this season].
“Being as I’ve enjoyed it so much here, that’s not a bad thing. To stay wouldn’t be a negative, in the least.”
Your new first baseman By now you’ve read plenty of analysis and some conflicting views of how the Braves did in the trade for Kotchman. Given that whoever got Teixeira was getting him for only two months guaranteed, I’ll repeat that I thought the Braves did well to get a quality major league first baseman in return. And Kotchman is that, regardless of what some here have opined.
He’s not Teixeira, and it’s safe to say he probably never will be. Not offensively. Teixeira is, statistically speaking, one of the dozen or so most complete overall hitters in the game today. That’s considering average, OBP, slugging, homers, RBI, etc.
But Kotchman, at 25, is a former top-rated prospect who could reasonably be expecged to hit .280-290 with 20-25 homers, perhaps a few more, and driving in 90-110 runs if he stays healthy as the Braves’ every-day first baseman. And he’ll probably make less over the next three seasons (2009-2011) than Tex will get in half a season under the long-term contract he signs with whichever team this winter.
One thing is certain: Anyone who’s seen him play knows Kotchman is an outstanding defensive first baseman. Some have said he’s as good or better than Tex. I wouldn’t go quite that far; to me, Teixeira was the second-best defensive first baseman in the league behind Derrek Lee.
But Kotchman is outstanding with the glove, no question. The left-hander ranked second among AL first baseman with a .998 fielding percentage and only two errors in 913 chances this season, while Teixeira led NL first baseman with the same .998 percentage and two errors in 1,030 chances.
Kotchman also ranked second among AL 1Bs with 73 assists, while Tex was ninth in the NL with 65.
Again, I’d give the edge to Tex in fielding, but not by much.
For the Braves, who have plenty of other needs to fill, including starting pitching, that payroll issue was decisive, even if they’ve got about $40 mill coming off the books after this season with expiring contracts and the trade of Teixeira, and the significantly reduced salaries for Smoltz and/or Glavine if either is back.
(By the way, the Braves don’t have the $50-plus mill coming off that I heard some guys on the radio talking about today — those folks just counted the $15 mill Hampton salary and $7 mill Kotsay salary, etc., without even considering what amount of those salaries the Braves are paying or what Smoltz might get, etc., not to mention the raises for McCann — from $800,000 this season to $3.5 mill in ‘09 in the second year of his six-year contract — and for a few others who are arb-eligible, which will eat into some of that amount that’s being shed, though not a great amount.)
If Tim Hudson’s elbow requires “Tommy John” surgery, as everyone fears, that opens a huge void atop the rotation, and that’ll be an expensive one to fill with an established starter.
But we can get into all their needs and such after Thursday, when the dust settles and we see what the Braves have acquired and maybe try to find out if there’s a ballpark figure for next year’s payroll.
Some Chipper quotes: Here’s what the third baseman said after last night’s game, about being sellers, about trading away Tex, about younger Braves players being almost devastated by the move, etc.
“It’s tough for all of us,” Jones said. “We’ve never been sellers before. We’re usually the ones who are adding, not subtracting. It’s tough to come to grips with, because we felt coming out of Spring Training that we’d be right in the mix all year long.”
“It’s a tough pill to swallow knowing that Tex isn’t going to be with us through the remainder of the season. And No. 2, we have no chance of signing him. But that’s the business of baseball. Casey kotchman is a good player, he’s going to help us a lot. To what extent, we’ll find out.”
When I asked Chipper about whether he thought the Tex trade would be the last, he said:
“I would highly doubt it. I would imagine this is probably the first in a steady line of moves, to be honest with you, pointing toward a positive end to this year and a positive start to next year.
“It’s hard. Nobody wants to be in this situation but unfortunately the way free agency is these days and the high dollars that are commanded, the injuries that we sustained, here we are.”
Getting back to Kotchman Between the mono he had a few years ago and a recurring hand injury that slowed him another season, Kotchman been slowed in his development and only in the past two years has gotten a chance to play on a regular basis.
I saw him hit a two-run homer off Jorge Campillo in a 2-0 Angels win over the Braves on June 14 in Anaheim, one of the career-high 12 he’s hit this season. He has three homers in his last four games, including one Monday at Boston in what turned out to be his final game for the Angels.
Much has been made of how Tex joining Vlad Guerrero gives the Angels the kind of devastating 1-2 middle-lineup punch that Boston has (well, when Manny actually cares and is not acting like he’s completely lost his mind).
So it might surprise you to see how Kotchman has compared with Vlad this season. Kotchman has hit .287 with 24 doubles, 12 homers, 54 RBIs, a .327 OBP and .448 slugging percentage (.775 OPS) in 373 at-bats.
Guerrero has hit .284 with 17 doubles, 17 homers, 54 RBI, a .346 OBP and .478 slugging (.824 OPS) 370 at-bats.
No, I’m not suggesting Kotchman is comparable to Vlad, just pointing out stats that surprised me. By the way, Kotchman doesn’t walk nearly enough (only 18 walks this season), but how nice is it going to be to see a guy who has struck out only 23 times all season, or once ever 16.2 at-bats? Braves need that.
That homer off Campillo was one of only two at Anaheim this season for Kotchman. But on the road, he led the Angels with 10 homers and 32 RBIs.
Second on the team in road homers and RBI was Guerrero, with nine and 31. Kotchman’s .492 road slugging percentage ranked second among the Angels to Guerrero’s .516.
And with runners in scoring position, Kotchman this season has hit .298 (28-for-94) with 10 extra-base hits and a .468 slugging percentage.
Teixeira hit .282 (31-for-110) with runners in scoring position, with nine extra-base hits and a .473 slugging percentage.
Again, not suggesting Kotchman is Tex. He’s not. But the dropoff might not be as great as some thought, at least not in run-producing situations.
By the way, in his last 11 games Kotchman has seven extra-base hits (four homers) and 10 RBI with only two strikeouts. That might be a nice change of pace around here, don’t you think?
Batting title in peril? Don’t look now, but the batting title that looked so likely for Chipper Jones until a few weeks ago is looking less so by the day.
While the Braves third baseman is on the 15-day DL recovering from a pulled hamstring, his league-leading .369 average is only 14 points ahead of the hard-charging Albert Pujols (keep in mind, Jones’ lead was more than twice that for most of the season).
(And for those keeping track at home, Francoeur’s .232 average is fifth-lowest among NL qualifiers.)
Pujols has hit .372 in his past 30 games, including .394 since July 10 and a whopping .556 (10-for-18) with three homers and eight RBI in his past four games (he had one last night in the rout of the reeling Bravos).
Chipper hit .419 with 15 homers, 41 RBI and a .504 OBP and .676 slugging percentage in his first 60 games through June 11.
Since then, Hoss has hit .253 (24-for-95) with three homers, 14 RBI, a .379 OBP and .411 slugging percentage in his past 29 games.
Not only is Pujols bearing down on him, but Jones also isn’t a lock to have the minimum 502 plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. He has 380 plate appearances now, and with his faltering health and the Braves out of the race, will he play enough between now and season’s end to get those 502 plate appearances? Could be interesting.
Who said we’d have nothing to monitor in games down the stretch?
Speaking of reeling Braves . The recent numbers are ugly. A blood bath. The Braves are 17-28 with a .250 batting average and 4.56 ERA since June 6, a stretch that began with that first sweep by the Phillies at Turner Field.
The Braves are 9-16 with a .246 average and 5.28 ERA in their past 25 games.
And at home since that June 6 game against Philly, the Braves are 6-14 with a 5.29 ERA and only 73 runs scored in 20 games. That includes six consecutive losses against the Phillies in that stretch.
The Braves in July are 3-8 at home with a .240 average and horrid 6.39 ERA.
During their current four-game losing streak that started Saturday in Philly, the Braves have hit .285 and scored 25 runs, but they’ve posted a 9.79 ERA and given up 42 runs.
”HARD TIMES” as sung by Ray Charles
My mother told me
‘Fore she passed away
Said son when I’m gone
Don’t forget to pray
‘Cause there’ll be hard times
Lord those hard times
Who knows better than I?
Well I soon found out
Just what she meant
When I had to pawn my clothes
Just to pay the rent
Talkin’ ‘bout hard times
Lord those hard times
Who knows better than I?
I had a woman
Who was always around
But when I lost my money
She put me down
Talkin’ ‘bout hard times
Hard times
Yeah, yeah, who knows better than I?
Lord, one of these days
There’ll be no more sorrow
When I pass away
And no more hard times
No more hard times
Yeah, yeah, who knows better than I?
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Sifting through Braves’ Black Monday
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Sorting through the carnage of Braves Black Monday, let’s see if we can put together a quick blog between making calls trying to figure out who’ll next employ Mark Teixeira and a couple others likely to soon become ex-Braves.
To recap Monday: The Braves raised a figurative white flag earlier in the day, officially deciding to move into sell mode amid mounting injuries and horrid blown leads in Saturday and Sunday losses at Philly.
They put their best hitter (Chipper Jones) and best pitcher (Tim Hudson) on the disabled list in the afternoon. Then the Braves got their doors blown off by St. Louis in a 12-3 loss that gave the Braves their first three-game skid since 1986 in which they allowed 10 or more runs in each game.
Oh, and during that ugly defeat, the Braves hastily called a press conference in the back of the pressbox to announce that the MRI on Hudson’s elbow revealed potentially awful news — ulnar collateral ligament damage.
Everyone including the Braves and Hudson seemed genuinely surprised by the development. Of course, the way this season has gone for the Braves, they shouldn’t have been.
The way this season has gone, the Braves should know to expect the absolute worst, then be pleased when it’s merely bad news instead of devastating news.
One broadcaster said to me last night that, if there’s anything whatsoever that could be a positive in this season gone awry, it’s that perhaps the Braves needed such a pile of bad developments to convince them not to try to band-aid this thing at the trade deadline, and instead to point toward the future and get what they could for Teixeira, lefty Will Ohman and perhaps others.
Well, I said, if it took an epic failure meal in a bowl of sadness (I like to steal comic Patton Oswalt’s lines) to provide the impetus for such a decision, then the Braves certainly were served one this summer.
Trade away, Frank Wren. If this were the winter meetings back in the day, Wren would be sitting at a table in the hotel ballroom about now, with the “open for business” sign like Bill Veeck once did.
Or be like “Trader Jack” McKeon, who earned that nickname early in his career when he was GM of the Padres. But it was during a winter meetings in the 1990s, when McKeon was an advisor with the Reds, when towards the end of meetings one day he said, “We’ve got a cabana over there with cocktails, and we’re open for business.”
There won’t be anything so colorful for Wren as the clock ticks toward the 4 p.m. Thursday non-waiver deadline. These aren’t the winter meetings, and much business these days is done by text messages and Crackberries.
Wren is working the phones along with his top assistants and advisors, zeroing in on the best offer he can get for Teixeira from a group of bidders that’s known to include both L.A. teams, Arizona, and Tampa Bay.
One minute you’ll hear or ready that this team is out of it, was never in it, doesn’t know where that rumor started, blah blah blah, the next minute you’ll hear how this team is saying they aren’t in it but they might get in it when the asking price drops, etc.
Just know that Wren assures there is a market for Teixera, who he called the “best player” available when he refuted a suggestion by one writer (not me) that the Braves weren’t in “a position of strengtr” in trade talks now because other teams knew they were looking to move players as Atlanta’s injury-marred season swirled toward the drain.
Wren stared at him and said, “Why would you say that?” After the guy explained what he meant, Wren said, “I think we’re in a position of great strength, because we have the best player, and some of the best assets out there that people want. And there’s lot of competition for them. There are lots of teams that desire them.
“So I think we’re in a very good position.”
Alrighty, then.
Anyway, I think he’s right. They’re not in anything like the position of strength that Texas was in a year ago, when the Rangers were peddling the best available hitter (Teixeira) and best available lefty reliever, and the hitter had a full season to go before free agency.
Teixeira has only two months (and a possible postseason) to go until free agency now, which is why teams aren’t going to give the Braves a bevy of top prospects in return, even if this year’s best available lefty reliever (Ohman) is included.
It would be a tremendous deal for Atlanta if they could squeeze Conor Jackson out of Arizona, or James Loney from the Dodgers. But unless one of those teams get desperate and decide Teixeira is the difference in them advancing deep in the playoffs or perhaps not even making it to the postseason, and that they want to keep a division foe from getting him, then what I hear is that neither team is going to give up such a high-quality talent with years left until free agency for, in effect, a two-month rental. Things can change, though. Quickly.
I do hear the Braves have a legit shot at either the Angels’ Casey Kotchman, a good-not-great 1B who could still develop into something very good, or an Arizona package that includes 1B/3B Chad Tracy and perhaps pitcher Micah Owings. Hey, that’s a better bet than two draft picks, who could end up being good players but just as easily could end up never amounting to anything.
I was informed this morning that the Devil Rays are indeed interested, even though they have Carlos Pena. That DH thing over in the AL, you know? But would the D-Rays give up anything more than middling prospects or an aging former 1B prospect, Dan Johnson? Because it’ll take a lot more than that, I’m sure.
As for Ohman, the Braves could package him with Tex, as I said, or could deal him to one of at least a half-dozen teams that have expressed serious interest.
I keep getting asked about Francoeur-to-K.C. trade rumors. Folks, I don’t know if there’s been any serious discussions. The Braves aren’t ready to give up on Francoeur, but I’m also sure they’ll listen if K.C. wants to start dangling pitching. The reason this rumor is worth keeping in mind is obvious: Royals GM Dayton Moore was the Braves’ farm director during Francoeur’s rise through the Braves organization.
From what I understand, Moore and Francoeur have remained in contact as friends since Dayton left a few years ago.
OK, changing subjects to Huddy: We won’t know more about Hudson, probably, until after he sees the Braves orthopedist on Wednesday and perhaps not until after he sees Dr. Andrews in Birmingham later in the week.
But folks, more often than not, these elbow injury diagnoses are not good. As most of you all surely know, when a player goes to see Andrews, more often than not the news is not good and surgery is usually required.
Perhaps this will be one of those cases where the MRI results were a bit misleading and it’s only inflammation or a minor tear that won’t require surgery. I don’t know. But I wouldn’t bet on it, if I were a betting man.
Anyway, what does this mean for the Braves? Well, potentially it’s a huge setback, make no mistake about that. Hudson is their only proven, healthy starter, and he’s under contract, with a $13 million salary in 2009, and a $12 million mutual option for 2010.
If he’s out for next season, the Braves will have to make it a priority to acquire a legit ace to replace him, whether on the free agent market (always hugely expensive for proven, durable starters) or through a trade, whether now or this winter if the Braves would have to dangle a top prospect/young player or three and see what they might get in return.
Hudson is 11-7 with a 3.17 ERA in a staff-leading 142 innings, and has a 146-77 career record in 10 seasons with Oakland and Atlanta.
He’s second to Brandon Webb in the NL in percentage of groundballs, sixth innings, sixth in home ERA, and also in the top 10 in lowest OBP allowed, lowest slugging percentage allowed, fewest hits per nine innings, etc.
In other words, he’s one of the best 10 starters in the NL.
Jair Jurrjens might be his equal next season. Might be. But that’s not assured, since Jair is only in his first full season in the majors and still hasn’t demonstrated he can handle the workload of a full season as an ace, churning out the 200 or more innings that an ace is supposed to deliver.
The Braves would love to have Hudson and Jurrjens heading up their rotation, then maybe add another proven, quality starter, maybe even another ace. But take Hudson out of the equation and it becomes a desperate need to fill.
Can’t go into next season with Jurrjens, Campillo, Morton, Reyes, and hope that Hanson is ready and Smoltz can return at midseason, etc. Can’t do that. As we’ve seen again this season, never can have enough starting pitching.
And without Hudson, the Braves will be scrambling to replenish their rotation.
So they’d best cross fingers and hope for a better-than-expected report. That, or starting gearing trade talks more toward pitching, and quickly.
No saves here, move along: Can you believe that after 106 games the Braves save leader is Mike Gonzalez, with four? Yes, four.
The Braves have a major league-low 15 saves in 25 opportunities. There are seven NL teams with more saves than the Braves have save opportunities.
To repeat, the Braves saves leader is Mike Gonzalez, who missed nearly half the season recovering from Tommy John surgery. And his total is four saves. Four.
John Smoltz used to get four (or more) saves in a week.
Ahh, those were the days.
Tex has the numbers: Since he was traded to the Braves at last year’s deadline, Teixeira has hit .295 with 36 doubles, 37 homers and 134 RBI in 157 games, with a .395 OBP, .548 slugging percentage and six errors.
Here’s what some other NL first basemen have done in that span:
Derrek Lee: .302 with 44 doubles, 28 homers, 92 RBI in 160 games, with a .367 OBP, .510 slugging percentage and 12 errors.
Albert Pujols: .350 with 37 doubles, 29 homers, 95 RBI in 149 games, with a .456 OBP and .592 slugging percentage and four errors.
Lance Berkman: .332 with 42 doubles, 39 homers, 112 RBI in 157 games, with a .430 OBP, .623 slugging percentage and nine errors.
Prince Fielder: .283 with 25 doubles, 40 homers, 102 RBI in 156 games, with a .392 OBP, .552 slugging percentage and 13 errors.
Adrian Gonzalez: .289 with 35 doubles, 39 homers, 119 RBI in 164 games, with a .360 OBP, .531 slugging percentage and nine errors.
Ryan Howard: .246 with 22 doubles, 48 homers, 144 RBI in 161 games, with a .344 OBP, .525 slugging percentage and 17 errors.
By the way, Teixeira appears to be hot at the right time for trade purposes: He’s hit .337 with 10 homers and 27 RBI in his past 29 games, including .410 (16-for-39) with six doubles, three homers, 11 RBI and 10 walks in his past 11 games.
”TUPELO HONEY” by Van Morrison
You can take all the tea in China
Put it in a big brown bag for me
Sail right around the seven oceans
Drop it straight into the deep blue sea
She’s as sweet as tupelo honey
She’s an angel of the first degree
She’s as sweet as tupelo honey
Just like honey from the bee
You can’t stop us on the road to freedom
You can’t keep us ‘cause our eyes can see
Men with insight, men in granite
Knights in armor bent on chivalry
She’s as sweet as tupelo honey
She’s an angel of the first degree
She’s as sweet as tupelo honey
Just like honey from the bee
You can’t stop us on the road to freedom
You can’t stop us ‘cause our eyes can see
Men with insight, men in granite
Knights in armor intent on chivalry
She’s as sweet as tupelo honey
She’s an angel of the first degree
She’s as sweet as tupelo honey
Just like honey from the bee
You know she’s alright
You know she’s alright with me
She’s alright, she’s alright (she’s an angel)
You can take all the tea in China
Put it in a big brown bag for me
Sail it right around the seven oceans
Drop it smack dab in the middle of the deep blue sea
Because she’s as sweet as tupelo honey
She’s an angel of the first degree
She’s as sweet as tupelo honey
Just like honey from the bee
She’s as sweet as tupelo honey
She’s an angel of the first degree
She’s as sweet as tupelo honey
Just like the honey, baby, from the bee
She’s my baby, you know she’s alright…..
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Lost weekend in season of discontent
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Back on the case, we’ll clear the decks here as we await announcements later today regarding DL assignments and expected replacements, etc.
Expect Clint Sammons to be brought up to fill in for concussed Brian McCann, and Charlie Morton to get tonight’s start, which means someone (Chipper?) will have to be DL’d to open a roster spot for Morton. Oh, and Tex to be traded to Arizona.
(Got your attention, didn’t I?)
Anyway, after the Saturday-Sunday bullpen meltdowns and huge blown leads (did the Braves really blow a six-run lead Saturday and a five-run lead Sunday?) made it more likely than ever that Mark Teixeira will be moved by Thursday’s non-waiver trade deadline, thought I’d take a look at his year with the Braves and what they might possibly get in return if they trade him.
But first, did you all happen to see Jon Heyman’s Inside Baseball story in Sports Illustrated last week? SI did a survey of 20 major league GMs, asst. GMs, scouting directors and scouts, and asked them to name the five players they’d build their franchises around.
Youth was obviously a factor, as most don’t want to build a team around players in the downside of their careers. That explains why, of the 35 players who got votes, only four were older than 30, including A-Rod, who was second in the overall voting behind Marlins shortstop Hanley Ramirez.
They did it on a 5-4-3-2-1 scoring system, and Hanley was the runaway winner with 40 points and 5 first-place votes among the 20 voters. A-Rod had 29 points, Chase Utley 27, 22-year-old Mariners pitcher Felix Hernandez had 23, and Joe Mauer had 21, the only others with more than 20 points in the voting.
OK, but here’s what surprised me a bit. While I stated here last week that I could name at least 10 NL players I’d rather build a team around than Teixeira, it surprises me that people who don’t see as much of him as those who watch him daily, would also feel the same way.
I mean, would think his undisputedly large statistics, his excellent defense, and age (28) might land him in, say, the top 20 in a poll like this one in SI, wouldn’t you?
Well, think again. Because of the 35 players who received votes in this baseball-wide survey, Brian McCann was on the list, but Teixeira was not. Not so much as one fifth-place vote did he receive.
You can interpret that as you see fit, but the varied likes of Carlos Beltran, Russell Martin, Lance Berkman, Evan Longoria, Jake Peavy, Adrian Gonzalez and B.J. Upton received votes, and Tex did not.
Anyway .
Getting back to his year with the Braves. If it ends this week, it will have been a statistically impressive run, at least in terms of raw numbers. No question about that.
Since he was dealt to Atlanta from Texas as the centerpiece in a blockbuster, seven-player deal just before last year’s trade deadline, Teixeira has played 156 games for the Braves and hit .294 with 34 doubles, 37 homers, 133 RBI, 92 walks, 115 strikeouts, a .394 OBP and .545 slugging percentage.
The Braves went 76-80 in those games.
(Just for the curious, former Braves prospect Jarrod Saltalamacchia has hit .242 with 10 homers and 45 RBI in 93 games (331 at-bats) for Texas since the trade, with a .311 OBP, .387 slugging percentage, 106 strikeouts and 18 errors. Rangers got four other prospects in the deal, though, and most are progressing, so only time will tell.)
Tex might not make the top 35 of players those surveyed by SI would build around, but Tex did inspire a memorable hit song on You Tube (remember those two guys from Auburn? That’s making the most of your 15 minutes).
Remember the Tex hysteria in that first month or so when the former Georgia Tech standout wore the tomahawk? He inspired it with his huge production right after the deal, including three homers and seven RBIs in his first three games for Atlanta and nine homers and 25 RBI in his first 18 games.
Yes, nine homers and 25 RBIs in his first 18 games with the team. The Braves went 10-8 in those games.
There was so much promise. But it fizzled out. The Braves sputtered in the final weeks of the 2007 season, officially eliminated from the wild-card hunt in the last week.
And this season? Ugly. Multiple injuries to key pitchers; disappointments from the corner outfield positions, especially RF; and yes, a slow start by Teixeira, who always started slow with Texas, and did again with the Braves.
The Braves really needed him to help Chipper Jones carry the load in that first month and a half. It didn’t happen. Yunel Escobar and Brian McCann had torrid stretches in that period, but Tex didn’t.
The Braves got too far back and, each time they seemed poised to make a big move, they’d have a terrible series or two and push the frustration needle to the right.
Oh, it’s been a maddening season for Braves Nation, to be sure. Fairly or unfairly, Tex fell out of favor with many when he struggled early on and didn’t seen too concerned by it (he’d keep saying how he always started slow, that it was a marathon not a sprint, etc.).
People don’t want to hear that when they’re team is slipping in the standings and injuries are mounting. They want to hear how you feel terrible for not helping out, how you can’t look at yourself in the mirror because you’re not doing your part, that kind of thing.
Hey, it’s just human nature. And if you ask me, some people need a good PR agent to explain that to them, to explain that a little regret and beating one’s self up publicly goes a long way. But hey, I’m no PR agent.
Long story short, this was the year when Tex needed to buck his trend of slow starts. But it didn’t happen. Who knows if a huge first month from him could have made the difference for the Braves? But I can assure you, it sure would have made things a bit more interesting.
OK, so what do they get in a trade? I still don’t know, and I’m just behind honest when I say that. While I do believe the Braves can and will get a decent deal for him, assuming they trade him by Thursday, there’s a very good chance it won’t be nearly enough to satisfy fans who don’t seem to understand the difference between his situation now and a year ago.
The Braves gave up a bounty for Tex and lefty Ron Mahay because they were getting Teixeira for what they believed would be two playoff runs. Not one, but two. Turns out, they’ve gotten no playoff runs from him, and won’t unless they decide to keep him and then they make a huge turnaround in their season.
But if things had worked out as they hoped and planned, they’d have gone to the playoffs twice with Teixeira as their cleanup hitter and Gold Glove-caliber first baseman, and also would’ve had Mahay as their top situational lefty for one of those postseasons.
Few would be able to argue that the price had not been worth it (well, some would’ve argued that case anyway, barring a World Series win for the Braves. But you can’t win that argument with that segment of the fan base, so no reason to try.)
Anyway, things obviously didn’t work out, and now people want to see what the Braves get for Tex and then will judge just how bad they think last year’s deal was. That’s part of the game when you make such deals. It’s the nature of fando. But GMs know this, and know they can’t be afraid to make a deal for fear that it will anger fans a year later, like the J.D. Drew deal and others have before this one.
You roll the dice. Your minor league system exists both to produce players you can use in the majors and to produce players you can trade to fill holes in an effort to put you over the top.
Where were we? Oh, what the Braves might get.
The market isn’t what we might have expected for Teixeira, simply because so many contenders are set at first base and designated hitter.
Only contenders who are willing to part with a young player and or prospects in return for a two-month rental - because agent Scott Boras doesn’t usually do that long-term extension before a trade is finalized thing. He’ll want to take his guy to the open market this winter, to seek a deal worth more than $20 mill a year for seven or eight seasons for Teixeira.
Will he get that? I don’t know. But he’ll try. And Boras, he’s pretty good at this stuff, if you haven’t heard.
So what’s the market? If I’m the Braves, I keep pushing the Diamondbacks for Conor Jackson, who’s hitting .324 with a .407 OBP, with 12 homers and 55 RBI. That includes a sublime .396 average and 1.137 OPS in 96 at-bats vs. lefties.
Jackson’s a stellar player and the Braves could have him under control for three more years in arbitration, and he’s also played left field in the majors. He’d be huge “get” for the Braves if they could land him in a trade for Tex.
But I don’t think the D-Backs are going to give him up for Tex; I know if I were them I wouldn’t
So perhaps the Braves can work out a deal with Arizona involving Chad Tracy, another 1B who’d be under contract for under $5 mill next season. He ain’t Conor Jackson, but Tracy is a .289 career hitter with 131 doubles, 68 homers and 267 RBIs in 563 games, with a .348 career OBP.
He’s hitting .303 this season with six homers, includking .350 (14-for-40) with runners in scoring position.
However, Tracy is just a .226 career hitter against lefties, and only 22 of his 145 at-bats this season have been against lefties.
If the Braves do a deal for him, they’ve probably got to get something else solid thrown in, or else don’t you take the two draft picks instead?
Barring a deal with Arizona, I’d keep pushing the Angels for 1B Casey Kotchman, because he’d also give Atlanta a young (25), affordable 1B for at least next season, with a line-drive swing and pretty good power (.296 average with 11 homers last season, 11 homers already this season with a .288 average).
I know Boras has a great relationship with both the Angels and Dodgers, and probably could convince either team there’d be a good chance to re-sign Tex. But the Dodgers, unless they really believed they could re-sign him, wouldn’t possibly trade young 1B James Loney (career .312/.367 OBP/.508 slugging) for Teixeira, could they?
Anyway, stay tuned. It’s going to be a interesting week around here, what with the Teixeira situation and the bigger trade market that exists for veteran lefty Will Ohman.
(And wasn’t Ohman’s reading of the Braves lineup Saturday on Fox, with his impersonation of the late, great Harry Caray, spectacular? Gonna miss that dude if he’s traded. I won’t have anyone else to talk to about The Big Lebowski - Ohman knows just about all the dialogue and has a T-shirt with The Dude on it.)
McCann, Chipper voids: So how much will the Braves miss if they are without both Chipper Jones and Brian McCann for most or all of this week?
Well, they’d miss a hell of a lot, to say the least.
Jones and McCann rank second and sixth in the NL in on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS), Jones at 1.062 and McCann at .949. The others in the top six? Berkman, Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday and Pat Burrell.
Chipper still leads the league with a .369 average and .466 OBP. By the way, Jeff Francoeur’s .288 OBP is third-lowest among NL qualifiers.
McCann’s concussion — on a clean, hard play, I might add; Shane Victorino did nothing wrong in that collision Sunday — comes at a time when McCann has been carrying the offense, batting .390 (16-for-41) with five homers and 15 RBI in his past 13 games, with 13 walks, two strikeouts and a .545 OBP in that span.
Between them, Chipper and Mac have 32 of the Braves’ 77 homers against right-handers. They are the team’s two best in homers and slugging percentage against righties, and Tex (13) is the only other Brave with as many as 10 homers against right-handers.
Oh, and Chipper and Mac are also the only two Braves regulars hitting .300 or higher with runners in scoring position. Each is at .310 with RISP; next-best is Gregor Blanco at .297, among Braves with at least 30 at-bats with RISP.
This would be Chipper’s first DL stint in more than a year. Since returning from his last stint on June 13, 2007, he’s hit .361 with 44 doubles, 35 homers and 130 RBI in 181 games, with a .452 OBP and .596 slugging percentage.
The Braves are 93-88 in that stretch when Chipper plays, and 5-15 when he does not.
Declining relief: Blaine Boyer leads the majors with 56 appearances, and the wear and tear seems to be showing. He has a 5.82 ERA and .287 opponents’ average in 23 appearanes since June 8, with six walks and 16 strikeouts in 21-2/3 innings .
But no one has slipped lately more than lefty Royce Ring, who has been terrible in July. He’s got a stagginer 22.09 ERA and .571 opponents’ average in seven appearances since July 2, with 12 hits, nine earned runs and six walks in just 3-2/3 innings.
He’s given up at least one hit in every appearance, at least one walk in five of the seven appearances, and multiple hits or multiple walks in four of the seven.
The punchless outfield: Braves outfielders still have only 20 home runs; no other NL team has gotten fewer than 26 homers from outfielders, and half of the 16 teams have at least 44 outfielder homers . Jeff Francoeur has hit .165 (20-for-121) with one homer and seven RBI in his past 32 games .
Close-and-yikes: You want a startling stat? Tex (four) and Jeff Francoeur (three) have seven of the Braves’ mere nine homers in close-and-late situations. McCann and Escobar have the other two. Seven NL teams have more than twice as many homers in close-and-late situations than the Braves, including the Marlins with a league-high 32 and Phillies with 22 . The Braves’ .242 average in close-and-late situations is better than only Washington and San Diego in the NL.
“HURRICANE PARTY” by James McMurtry
The hurricane party’s windin’ down and we’re all waitin’ for the end
And I don’t won’t another drink, I only want that last one again
He gave me such a fine glow, smokin’ slow, now I should probably be homeward bound
There’s just no one to talk to when the lines go down
I guess that in the morning I’ll go lookin’ for my gray-striped cat
My old house can take the weather so I’m not too concerned about that
It was built to take the wind back in nineteen-and-ten when this was one damned fine town
But now there’s no one to talk to when the lines go down
Candles flickered on the back bar and the building was shakin’ with the wind
I bought a whiskey for the gypsy and she turned my leather back into skin
Just a fleeting sense of that rare suspense I once thought made the world go round
But now there’s no one to talk to when the lines go down
Open up your back screen door
Let me see your face once more
My hands are cold and my feet so sore
And I can’t go on this way
And the thoughts come too fast and too many to keep count, best just to let ‘em on through
Now I’m breaking those glass insulators with my old 22
Off the telephone polls as a half dollar rolls across the knuckles of a rodeo clown
There’s just no one to talk to when the lines go down
My one great love, my God, I can feel her still
She ran off to California and now she’s living in those Hollywood hills
With some bullfrog prince, I’ve not seen her since
Though she calls when he’s out of town
And there’s no one to talk to when the lines go down
Open up your back screen door
Let me in your space once more
I was looking for an easy score
But it just don’t work that way
Some insurance man-biker is yellin’ out for one more beer
But a part-time pirate just can’t get much respect around here
We got our problems too, man we’ll get to you
In just a minute, sit your drunk a@# down
Yeah, there’s no one to talk to when the lines go down
Now there’s water up past the wheel wells of my
Ford and I don’t guess that it’ll run
But I left a pack of Winston’s on the dash, could you fetch ‘em for me son?
The morning’s first cigarette, that’s as good as it gets all day I should know by now
But there’s no one to talk to when the lines go down
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No apparent hangover from brutal losss
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Good day, denizens. And believe it or not, around the clubhouse this morning, it seemed like a good day.
Guys were hanging around, laughing, being loose. They didn’t take batting practice, so players were out at their lockers, or on the couches watching TV and chatting. Chipper and Smoltz normally play their backgammon game in the players’ lounge, away from media traffic. Today they played in the center of the clubhouse.
In short, I didn’t see a big hangover effect from yesterday’s brutal loss.
And that goes for a conversation a couple of us had with GM Frank Wren as well. Despite what happened in last night’s game, I came away feeling like even still, given what happened yesterday, the Braves are still taking an aggressive approach and looking to add via trade.
Chipper said as much.
“I think Frank is doing everything he can to try and get us some help, based on some of the conversations I’ve had with him the past few days,” Jones said. “I think he’s definitely in a buyers’ frame of mind. We’ll see what the next few days offer up.”
Wren might have given a clue as to his mindset when I asked about the timing of a potential trade, if they were on the verge of pulling the trigger today or if it would be more likely they’d hold off until closer to the Thursday deadline.
“From our perspective, we could have one today,” he said. “We’re ready to move. We’ve been ready.”
Think they’d move Teixeira before they had to during this stretch run?
They enter today’s game 6 ½ games behind the Mets. That’s exactly where they were when they opened the second half and started this nine-game stretch against the Nationals, Marlins and Phillies. Of course they have that many fewer games left to work with, but do you trade Teixeira if you’re not positive you’re out of it yet?
Anyway, more Wren.
“I think other clubs, for whatever reason, especially clubs that are moving players, they look at the deadline as their ally, to put more pressure on teams. If you want him you’ve got to give this. You might get an extra player in a deal. The later you wait, it’s ‘either you get him or you don’t.’”
Translation, buyers want guys now, sellers want to wait to raise the price.
Wren indicated that the Braves still might buy on some level up to the last minute, regardless. The price just has to be right.
“If we saw an opening to really improve our club, we would do it - the present club,” Wren said. “Are we going to go all in for that deal? No. We’re not in a position to do that. A team like Milwaukee, they’re in a position where they’re going all out and that’s great. You’d love to be in that position. They are one or two pieces away. I wish we were.”
It’s also a distinct possibility the Braves can add a piece as well as sell, picking up an outfielder, say, while also trading Mark Teixeira for value greater than two draft picks.
IN OTHER NEWS: Chipper said he’s seen no real improvement on the hamstring. Bobby and Frank both say they want to wait before they disable him to give him a chance to heal. Frank did say if things don’t change in the next day or so, they could DL him. Chipper thinks it might take longer.
“I think the longer we go where I’m not available to do anything, play, hit, run. Yeah. It’s still bugging me just walking around.. anything baseball related is still a couple days away, at least.”
DIAZ UPDATE: Matt Diaz had a setback with his knee while on rehab assignment in Richmond and returned to Atlanta for an MRI earlier this week. It showed no structural damage, just inflammation, but he’s going to take some time off to let the knee calm down.
We’re expecting some showers today, so be prepared. The way the sky is looking off in the distance and how much the breeze has picked up, I’m actually a little surprised they’re starting. Not too good for those of us trying to get out tonight, but hey we do what we have to do.
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Braves fighting for survival
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Philadelphia — Welcome to ground zero .Or something like that. Here it is, the city of brotherly love (hmph), six days from the trading deadline, the Braves are 6-1/2 games behind the Mets and they have three days of must-win baseball ahead.
Or at least two.
With apologies to our forefathers, Philadelphia seems a hardscrabble town — is that the right word? At least it does from a cab ride on the way in from the airport. Granted I’ve seen it more on “Cold Case” than in person since 2001.
But it’s a fitting place for the Braves to face some hard truths.
(Just me? Or was it some kind of sign that I have a huge three-way mirror in the bathroom of my corner room in this sweet high-rise hotel? It’s a weekend of self-evaluation. Well, wait. Maybe shouldn’t have said that.)
The Braves have three games against the Phillies to prove to Frank Wren they’re still hanging in there in the division and worthy of hanging on to the trade market’s biggest name: Mark Teixeira.
They’ve got to do it against a team that just dropped two of three to the Mets, and comes in riled up after falling a game back into second place in the NL East. And the Phillies, lest some of us have blocked it out completely, have beaten the Braves seven in a row this season and eight of nine.
Did I mention the Braves have to face Cole Hamels tomorrow? A guy who has beat them twice, coming one out shy of two complete games, while allowing only a run? That’s 2-0 with a 0.51 ERA.
Oh and yes, this little nugget still looms — they might have to do it without Chipper Jones. Word on that to come. My hunch is he doesn’t play tonight, maybe not tomorrow, but I can’t see him sitting out this entire series. At least some pinch-hitting?
We should also find out if Tim Hudson’s elbow is sound and if so, whether the Braves might go ahead and run Mike Hampton out to the hill tomorrow. Look, (don’t e-mail me, ahem, I know how you feel about him) I happened to think it’s a darn good idea. Jo-Jo Reyes has been struggling - he’s lost his last five starts while putting up a 7.65 ERA and a .353 opponents batting average. Hampton doesn’t need any more chances to pull something preparing to get back. He says the arm is solid. Get him back out there before anybody else has any more time to think about it. And if something pops, Reyes can come right back up - he wouldn’t have to wait 10 days.
But we’ll see how it plays out.
Meanwhile, numbers against the Phillies this season? You know they aren’t pretty. Braves are 1-8, scoring three runs a game, hitting .230 and giving up a 5.63 ERA. The only Phillies starter they beat - Brett Myers - is just back from the minors but not pitching in this series. And they’d better not sit around and wait for great chances late in games either.
The Phillies’ bullpen is leading the majors with a 2.84 ERA, while going 22-15 and converting 26 of 34 save chances.
The only Braves starter to beat the Phillies this year is supposed to throw a bullpen today — Tom Glavine. He’s still hoping for a mid-August return.
As for trade scenarios, they seem to be on hold until this weekend plays out. Wren really can’t and shouldn’t pull the trigger until he has a feel for how this series goes. It’s almost like a Division Series though, isn’t it? (Back in the days when we were all involved in those.) Game 1 could make a huge difference: Kyle Kendrick vs. Jair Jurrjens.
In Jurrjens’ last game against the Phillies he gave up three homers in a loss. He’s given up only eight homers all year. He’ll have to be sharper than that, especially in a hitters’ park.
As for the rumored scenarios, Jayson Stark did give some credence to the idea an NL West contender might be the best fit for a Teixeira deal, when he declared Arizona the frontrunner in positioning for Teixeira. The Arizona Republic said D-backs officials downplayed a potential deal, saying they haven’t spoken to the Braves in days. Then again, all it takes is picking up the phone again.
In the meantime, I’m off to Citizens Bank Park for the first time. The crusty old backup beat writer has only been to the Vet. So do fights break in the stands at Citizens Bank Park, too?
By the way, you know you’re in a northern town when your hotel room AC is blowing 64 degrees. Gracious. Oh, and Jeff Francoeur’s dad was on my plane coming up from Atlanta. Can’t hurt to have that kind of support around this weekend.
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This isn’t funny-like-a-clown funny
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Miami — So I’m listening to this recording of an interview I did yesterday with Will Ohman, and in the background you can here a great scene — “Am I funny like a clown? Do I amuse you? — from the movie Goodfellas, which they were showing on DVD in the visitor’s clubhouse yesterday.
Anyway, it seemed appropriate for some strange reason. Maybe I’m just tired.
As for the interview, I was doing it for the WSB thing I do, the 45-second bites that air during drive-time in early mornings in Atlanta. And I asked Ohman about the mood in the clubhouse during this difficult time when it seems the season is dying on the vine.
“The mood in the clubhouse is one of purpose,” he said before last night’s game. “Obviously we understand there’s a truncated timetable for us to turn things around and start playing better baseball. So I think everyone’s aware of that, but we’re not letting it be something that’s consuming us.”
(Yes, he really said “truncated.” Hey, he went to Pepperdine.)
Any more games like last night’s 4-0 shutout, in which the Braves mustered just one hit, and you can bet it’s going to tougher to keep it from consuming them. Because when the Braves get home from this trip, they’re going to still have two months left in the season, and it could be two months like this organization hasn’t spent in a long, long time.
Even last season, the Braves had legitimate hope until the last couple of weeks of the season. And the year before, 2006, when their 14-division-title run ended, they had optimism in the clubhouse because the young Braves talked of being fired up to begin a new streak the following year and all that.
Well, that hasn’t panned out, and now the Braves are headed for a third consecutive postseason without them involved, unless Mark Teixeira or Will Ohman or perhaps Mark Kotsay is playing for another playoff-bound team after the July 31 trade deadline.
They’re all eligible for free agency after the season, and the Braves aren’t likely to bring back any of them. If Kotsay’s back had held up all season, I’d guess they might try to re-sign him given the uncertainty now surrounding CF prospect Jordan Schafer since Schafer’s 50-game HGH suspension and his lackluster play in Double-A since he got back from that suspension.
But Kotsay’s back is a problem, and I can’t see the Braves going into next season with him penciled in as their CF, as much as everyone including manager Bobby Cox loves having the guy in the lineup and in the clubhouse.
Anyway, where was I? Oh, yeah, Ohman.
I asked him a question with you denizens in mind, or at least some of you. The ones who keep asking why Cox isn’t “held accountable” for the team’s performance this season.
I asked Ohman if he agreed with those who sugges that much blame should be placed at the feet of Cox. Keep in mind, this isn’t a player who’s spent 10 years playing for Cox, not one who’s enjoyed winning seasons under him.
It’s Ohman, who came here from the Cubs and who knows, because of a likely big raise he’s going to get as a free agent, that he’s not going to be here beyond this season, and that there’s a good chance he won’t be here beyond July 31.
“I don’t think you can place any blame on Bobby for what’s gone on,” he said. “It’s been an unfortunate scenario where we’ve lost some really high-profile guys who we came out of spring training counting on their presence on this team, and that’s always difficult to come back from.
“But you look at the way guys — obviously I’m in the bullpen — you look at what those [relievers] have done down there when thrust into roles that maybe they weren’t fully prepared for, and how we’ve succeeded, and I think that’s a good test of character.”
Coming back to the Cox question, Ohman continued:
“I think that blame is placed at the feet of the manager far too many times. He’s writing out the lineup card, but we’re the ones playing the game. So if we lose, unfortunately, it’s something that reflects on him but it’s not necessarily losing the game. I don’t think that would be correct to even suppose that would be the case.”
When someone suggested that Cox isn’t managing any differently than he did all those years the Braves enjoyed so much success and he won multiple Manager of the Year awards, Ohman agreed.
“Unfortunately,” he said, “we haven’t gotten the timely hit, or the timely out, made the pitch — whatever the case may be, you can generally go to one play per game that really turns the tide, and unfortunately we just haven’t been able to put that together.”
Mets meltdown: A few hours after I told someone yesterday that I thought the Mets might just be ready to pull away from the pack, they had a devastating ninth-inning meltdown last night.
This after manager Jerry Manuel decided to pull a very effective Johan Santana after he’d thrown 105 pitches in eight innings.
Don’t know if that says more about the state of the game today - the highest paid pitcher in the game can’t go for a complete game when he’s only thrown 105 pitches? - or about Manuel’s instincts or what, but given that sore-shouldered closer Billy Wagner was unavailable to pitch, you gotta wonder what Jerry was thinking. Seriously.
Anyway, we’ll see if there’s any carry-over from that loss at Shea Stadium. We were watching on a clubhouse television at Dolphin Stadium, while waiting for Francoeur to come out after last night’s Braves loss, when the Phillies put together their huge ninth inning.
I was out in a hallway (there’s TVs all over the place in there) and I heard Bobby Cox shout, “What happened?” from his office. I looked in and he had the remote in his hand; he’d just clicked back to the Phils-Mets game and the score had changed dramatically since he’d turned the channel a few minutes earlier.
Anyway, hey, it’s gonna be an interesting NL East race, without or without the Braves.
By the way, the Jose Reyes defensive gaffe in last night’s game on a would-be double play, his poor decision to try to do it all himself, was a perfect example of why I didn’t have him on that list of 10 guys I’d build a team around in the NL when someone asked me yesterday.
Tonight’s game: Odds wouldn’t certainly seem to be in the Braves’ favor for tonight’s rubber game with the fledgling Fish. But of course, we’ve said that plenty of times before and it didn’t necessarily work out.
But really, tonight’s pitching matchup it’s Tim Hudson vs. Ricky Nolasco. Hudson, who is 6-2 with a 2.84 ERA in 12 career starts against the Marlins, including 4-1 with a 2.95 ERA in seven at Miami. Against Nolasco, who’s 0-3 in his past four starts against the Braves, including two losses this season in which he’s been rolled for 21 hits, 13 runs and seven homers in 10-1/3 innings.
Chipper Jones is 9-for-14 with three homers against Nolasco, including 6-for-7 with three homers this season.
On the other hand, Hudson is 0-4 with a 4.74 ERA in his past seven road starts. And Nolasco was 9-1 with a 2.84 ERA in a span of 13 starts before giving up four runs and seven hits in seven innings of a loss Friday against Philadephia.
That loss snapped a four-start home winning streak in which Nolasco had posted a 1.29 ERA and .160 opponents’ average. So we’ll see. Could be a good one tonight.
Speaking of Ohman He’s 2-0 with a 2.25 ERA and .130 opponents’ average in his past 23 appearances, and all of the five earned runs he’s allowed in that span came in one two-out appearance against Seattle on June 20.
In his other 22 games in that stretch, he’s allowed one unearned run, six hits and five walks with 19 strikeouts in 19-1/3 innings.
It’s too bad the Braves probably couldn’t find a way to squeeze a $3-plus mill salary for him into next year’s payroll along with the combined $9-10 mill they’re going to probably be paying relievers Mike Gonzalez and Rafael Soriano.
Francoeur with bases juiced: I’ve gotten more than a dozen e-mails from people since his at-bat last night, The At-Bat, when Francoeur struck out swinging at four straight bad pitches after Florida’s VandenHurk had walked the bases loaded with three consecutive walks to start the inning.
Many called it the worst at-bat they’ve seen all season. Some said the worst they’ve seen in their lifetimes.
I would have a hard time disagreeing.
Anyway, for those who think the Braves absolutely stink with bases loaded, actually they don’t. Not as a team, overall.
They rank third in the NL with a .282 average (29-for-103) with bases loaded, and fourth with a .307 OBP in those situations.
But Francoeur is just 3-for-22 with no walks and seven strikeouts in those situations, and that’s twice as many at-bats as any other Brave has had with bases loaded (so yeah, his work in those spots does come to mind, understandably).
Without Francoeur’s 3-for-22, the rest of the Braves have a combined .321 average (26-for-81), including Chipper’s 3-for-4 with one walk, Mark Teixeira’s 5-for-10 with a walk and a hit-by-pitch (.538 OBP), and Brian McCann’s 5-for-11 with two doubles.
Tune for a daughter: The late, great Townes Van Zandt wrote this song for his daughter Katie Belle. You gotta hear him sing it in his distinct, whiskey-ravaged Texas twang to get a full apprecation, but the words alone are gorgeous.
”KATIE BELLE BLUE” by Townes Van Zandt
There is no deeper blue
in the ocean that lies
as deep as the blue
of your laughing eyes
no sweeter sound
than your gentle sigh
no heart was ever so pure
Dream pretty dreams
touch beautiful things
let all the skies surround you
swim with the swans
and believe that upon
some glorious dawn
love will find you
Come some day
I’m bound away
wind and wings on the water
whatever may
you must stay
and remain my beautiful daughter
There is no deeper blue
in the ocean that lies
as deep as the blue
of your laughing eyes
no sweeter sound
than your gentle sigh
no heart was ever so pure
Good night Katie Belle, good night
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Why must Braves make this difficult?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Miami — They don’t make it easy to shovel dirt on them, these Braves. I know, I know many of you will respond to that by saying they were done in May, or June, or whatever.
But from an actual business-decision standpoint, if you’re the one that’s ultimately making the decision on whether to officially pull the plug on this season and trade Mark Teixeira and Will Ohman before July 31, a game like last night’s 4-0, two-hit shutout by Jorge Campillo and relievers Ohman and Mike Gonzalez certainly can’t make said decision any easier, can it?
Do they have a realistic chance of overcoming three teams with five- or six-game leads on them to win the NL East? Probably not. But they do have a chance, whether it’s 10-percent or whatever. And you know how stubborn these Braves and Bobby Cox can be, and how much they’d prefer to wait until the last possible minute before sending Tex to some contender and perhaps having to take far less than what some uniformed folks believe the Braves will get in return in such a trade.
But anyway just saying they’re not easy to figure out sometimes. They get absolutely destroyed by the lowly Nats Saturday and Sunday, the Braves playing sloppy and failing to get key hits while the Nats played like they were the team playing with something at stake.
Then the Braves hit the road and shut out a surging young Marlins team that had won eight of 11, including two road series in Southern California, and came from behind to win for the 27th time Sunday, and led the majors with 140 homers.
And the Braves throw a two-hit shutout against them. Go figure.
So as much as a lot of folks would prefer the Braves pull a trigger on a Tex deal now, if you’re in Frank Wren’s shoes can’t you at least see where he might want to wait to see what happens in the next five games against the Marlins and Phillies.
Because what if? What if - and I know it’s highly unlikely - the Braves were to win four of these next five, go 5-1 on the trip, and get back to Atlanta about 4-5 games out of first place. Again, I’m not saying I think it’ll happen; not saying that at all. As I pointed out, they haven’t had a winning trip all season.
But if you’re in control of an organization’s direction, to a large degree, and if it’s your first year in the GM chair, aren’t you going to wait as long as reasonably possible before you turn off the life-support machine and tell those fans who aren’t in the trade-Tex-now mode that it’s over, that you’re aiming for the future?
Hey, it’s only six more days, folks. In six more days, the Braves will have finished the trip that most of them have said is going to determine whether they’re buyers or sellers. So just hang on.
Smoltz a travelin’ man: For the first time since his shoulder surgery, John Smoltz accompanied the team on this trip. It does make it seem a lot more normal when the bearded, balding Braves icon is in the clubhouse, that voice booming as he plays practical jokes and bust balls during the drawn-out afternoon preparation period.
I talked to him yesterday, before last night’s win, and asked him what he can say to the team at tough times like this from his position on the sidelines.
“The biggest thing is, with the way the games are being played, we’re in every game and we’re not exactly doing the things that would equate to a lot of victories,” he said. “You just try to help you pitchers learn for the future. You certainly can’t make them panic, can’t make them pitch perfect games … I’m really only focused on the young pitchers, trying to help them.
“I believe Jo-Jo Reyes, if he can learn something from [Sunday], he didn’t pitch that badly but his results weren’t good. And that’s a mixed emotion that a young pitchers can’t deal with. He made a lot of adjustments that a lot of people would never realize.”
I asked him whether Reyes and the other young pitchers have it tougher than he did because they’re going through their struggles on a team that’s under scrutiny, rather than a team that’s not expected to contend. He said yes, in so many words.
“The biggest thing is, for the most part they do ask questions, and they’re reacting like sponges instead of bricks,” he said. “What I mean by that, they’re willing to take information in and not let it hurt their performance. It’s actually like a light going off. From that they’ve gained a lot of experience that can only pay off for the future.
“I mean, it’s hard to look at this season, with the amount of injuries that we’ve had, and the [young] guys where they started and see where they are today, and expect them to replace the likes of the starters that we lost. It’s not an easy job.”
I asked him if, given everything that’s happened, could he have reasonably expected the Braves to overcome the injuries they’ve had.
“Not really. But you always have optimism, and as long as you’re within striking distance…” he said. “The problem is that we’re behind three teams. And so that striking distance is a little misleading.
“We’re gonna learn a lot about our team this week. We’ve been saying that every week so far this year. But I think this week will really be either the hope for the next two months or the concern for what our team’s going to look like via options to trade people or whatever the avenue they choose after this week. Only time will tell.”
Finally, I asked him if the most frustrating part for him was to not be able to put team on his back every five days like he used to.
“That’s the biggest thing I’ve struggled with,” he said. “It’s the physical part, that you can’t go out there, but it’s also really the energy that you bring when you’re in the game. It’s only once every five days — or, well, could it be three or four if I was pitching out of the bullpen — you know, you’re a part of the team, but you’re not.
“So all you can do is do things behind the scenes.”
Chipper’s flick hit: He had one at-bat last night with a runner on base, and in that at-bat Chipper Jones reached across the plate and flicked an opposite-field single to left field with two out in the fifth inning to drive in a run for a 2-0 lead.
Chipper’s .405 average (60-for-148) with runners on base is 33 points higher than the NL’s next-best, Ryan Church’s .372.
He isn’t dominating games like he did earlier in the season, but Chipper is still leading the majors with a .372 overall average that’s 18 points higher than his closest competition, Albert Pujols (.354). The AL leader is Texas’ Ian Kinsler at .324, a whopping 48 points behind Jones’ average.
Against the Marlins this season, Jones is 20-for-36 (.556) with five homers and nine RBI in nine games. Since 2004 he’s got 18 homers and 60 RBIs in 64 games against the Fish, including a .389 averag with 27 extra-base hits (15 homers) and 44 RBIs in his past 47 games against them.
On adolescent development: Let’s face it, along the way the unfortunately dubbed “Baby Braves” (God, I hated that name) have failed to develop into the juggernaut some had envisioned. Or even into much of a solid nucleus.
Only Brian McCann has met or surpassed all expectations. The three-time All-Star catcher is everything the Braves could have possibly hoped for offensively, and his defense is adequate, his game-calling improving.
If they eventually wanted to move him to first base, I’m sure he’d accept the move and thrive there. But for now, I know McCann loves catching and wants to keep getting better behind the dish, working with pitchers, etc. If he could only make better progress in throwing out runners .
But as we said, he’s a nucleus player you build a team around. The others, well .
Kyle Davies is long gone. Horacio Ramirez, too (was Horacio even considered part of the Baby Braves? I forget). Langerhans? Gone. Pete Orr? (Was he good enough to be a Baby Brave? Don’t know. But gone.) Thorman? He wasn’t even here yet, but he’s come and gone, returned to Triple-A. There were others, but I don’t have a class — er, team — photo in front of me.
Oh, yeah, there’s the class president, or homecoming king, or whatever: Jeff Francoeur. Enough piling on, for now. He’s a good dude and a guy who cares a lot and wants to win. Yes, he’s had a nightmarish season after making a lot of strides a year ago. Yes, he was overly hyped (by us, by Delta, by the Braves, by SI, et al). But that’s certainly not his fault.
And besides, it’s still too early to know if he was extremely overrated, mildly overated, or if he’ll develop into the All-Star the Braves and their fans had anticipated he’d become, or just a good player, or maybe not even that, if can’t fix the flaws in his swing and his approach to hitting. (And whether it’s due to the extra weight he added last winter and/or the foot/ankle problem he needs to get fixed this winter, his defense simply hasn’t been of anything close to Gold Glove-caliber this season.)
Then there’s Kelly Johnson, who was always one of my favorite guys to deal with, and still is. Great guy, good interview, and genuinely cares about the team and absolutely hates to lose or to fail to deliver at the plate (or on a popup in the ninth inning, but enough’s been said about that incident, right?).
But I gotta say, I’m surprised that Kelly has taken a step back offensively, because I thought this would be the year his offense really started to take off, a couple years removed from elbow surgery and in his second season at second base, a new position he was thrust into after Marcus Giles was dumped following the 2006 season.
Kelly ended an erratic 2007 season on a down note, slumping for most of August and September. Problem is, he’s sort of continued along those lines for most of this season.
Since Aug. 5, 2007, he’s hit .250 with 29 doubles, 12 homers and 50 RBI in 132 games (12-for-480), with 57 walks, 103 strikeouts and a .331 OBP and .398 slugging percentage. The walks and strikeouts are surprising, the average, OBP and slugging all a lot lower than I thought he’d produce in a stretch that long.
Since June 27, he’s hit .190 (11-for-58) with more errors (two) than extra-base hits (one)m, and since July 5 he’s 6-for-36 with no extra-base hits, two RBI, one walk and nine strikeouts in 11 games.
Home-road reversal: We knew the home-road thing would eventually even out some, that the Braves would not keep losing four out of ever five on the road or winning four out of five at home. It has turned significantly in recent weeks.
On the road, the Braves started out a horrendous 7-24 through June 12. Since then the are 9-8 on the road, with a 2.79 ERA in that span as the main reason for the improvement (they’ve only hit .250 in those 17 road games).
Meanwhile at home, the Braves started out 25-8 with a .303 average and 3.34 ERA. They were a machine at home in that span through June 5.
But since then, they’ve gone 6-12 at home with a .246 average and 5.04 ERA. Ugly.
Everything changes. Well, almost everything. The cheeseburgers at Le Tub in Hollywood Beach, they don’t change. They’re still the best in America.
OK, a distraction: Using the term distraction, as one blogger did a few days ago, for apparently anything - talk of movies, music, etc. — that dares to stray from discussion of all things Braves.
Anyway, the new album by The Hold Steady, called Stay Positive is their fourth and probably their best. If not, it’s at least on par with the brilliant Separation Sunday, which is saying plenty. What a great straight-ahead rock band. I hear early Springsteen all over several songs on this CD, and there’s even a salute to the great Clash front man, “St. Joe Strummer.” I’ll put this album up there with the latest by My Morning Jacket, James McMurtry and the Drive-By Truckers as my favorite albums so far in 2008.
“SEQUESTERED IN MEMPHIS” by The Hold Steady
It started when we were dancin’
It got heavy when we got to the bathroom.
We didn’t go back to her place,
We went to some place where she cat-sits.
She said, “I know I look tired, but everything’s fried, here in Memphis.”
Man, they want to know exactly which bathroom…
Dude, does it make any difference? It can’t be important…
Yeah, sure, I’ll tell my story, again…
In bar-light, she looked all right;
In daylight, she looked desperate
That’s all right, I was desperate, too
I’m getting pretty sick of this interview.
Subpoenaed in Texas, sequestered in Memphis
Subpoenaed in Texas, sequestered in Memphis
I think she drove a new Mustang
I guess it might be a rental
I remember she had satellite radio
I guess she seemed a bit nervous,
Do you think I’m that stupid? Well, what the hell?
I’ll tell the story, again…
In bar-light, she looked all right;
In daylight, she looked desperate
That’s all right, I was desperate, too
I’m getting pretty sick of this interview
Subpoenaed in Texas, sequestered in Memphis
Subpoenaed in Texas, sequestered in Memphis
Subpoenaed in Texas, sequestered in Memphis
Subpoenaed in Texas, sequestered in Memphis
I went there on business, subpoenaed in Texas, sequestered in Memphis
I went there on business, subpoenaed in Texas, sequestered in Memphis .
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Trading Tex not as simple as some think
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Raise you hands if you thought that on July 21, the Braves would be opening this series in Florida with the Marlins playing for a share of first place and the Braves contemplating trading away a star this late in the season for the first time since, well, since Dale Murphy was traded away on Aug. 4, 1990?
And keep in mind, Murph was nearing the end of his career and didn’t object to being shipped away given the Braves’ situation in that last season before The Run began a year later.
Mark Teixeira is not near the end of his career, he’s 28, right in the middle of his peak years.
But that’s where the Braves are today, at least six games behind three different teams in the NL East, coming off a terrible pair of losses against Washington at Turner Field over the weekend that might well have pulled the lever on the Teixeira (and Will Ohman) trade machinery.
It’s not the 6-1/2-game deficit that makes a postseason push such a formidable task for the Braves at this point. Plenty of teams have overcome deficits greater than that in less time than there is remaining in this season.
No, it’s the fact that there are three teams with 6- or 6-1/2-game leads over the Braves in the NL East that makes this just about an insurmountable task. Because the Braves have let three teams build significant leads on them, they now are not in control of their own destiny by any stretch of the imagination.
Because now the Braves would have to hope that not one, not two, but three teams would all struggle while, oh yeah, they themselves finally put together a solid run of baseball.
Stranger things have happened but not too many stranger things.
That miserable homestand was exactly what the Braves did not need if they wanted to try to convince anyone, including GM Frank Wren, that they had a realistic shot at turning this around and reeling in the division leaders.
Don’t know if Frank decided at some point during yesterday’s four-error debacle that it was time to ramp up trade talks, but wouldn’t surprise me (this is not something he’s going to discuss publicly, for obvious reasons; if the Braves want to trade Teixeira, they’d prefer other teams to think they’re not desperate and wouldn’t mind holding on to him and trying to re-sign him, etc.)
Oh, for those who’ve asked me if the Braves have any hope of re-signing Teixeira, or even plan to make an offer: I don’t know, but I get the distinct impression they are not planning to go down that road.
Just from conversations with people connected with the team in various capacities, I haven’t heard anything since spring training to make me believe they’re thinking of, or have talked to him or agent Scott Boras about, a big offer to keep Tex here.
Some who’ve talked to Boras about it say he’s sent signals that he’ll ask for $22-23 mill a year in an eight-year deal for Tex. Good luck with that. Can’t see that happening. But if anybody is capable of getting him more than most of us believe Teixeira is worth, it’s certainly Boras, who plays one team against another team, or one offer against another supposed offer from a team that nobody can pin down and many observers will often doubt actually exists.
He’s turned that into art. Offseason art. Not the kind of thing you can pull off in midseason, which is why you don’t see Boras doing the window-to-work-out-a-contract-extension thing with his clients. By that I mean, if the Braves had a deal with, say, the Angels in place that depended upon the Angels first coming to an agreement on a long-term contract extension with Teixeira, well, I can’t see Boras agreeing to do that. Can’t see that at all.
Because what team would he use as leverage? What offer could he say he’s received from this team or that, in July?
No, the way it works is when Boras gets his clients this close to free agency, he takes them all the way through to the process, where he can work his magic and somehow, some way, usually get his clients more money than we think seems plausible.
Is Teixeira, with his Gold Glove-level defense and likely .290-30-120 to .310-45-130 offensive range for many years to come, worth $20 mill a season? I’d say only to a team that has a huge payroll, at least $150 mill or so. Not to a team with a $100 mill payroll, because while he piles up stats, he’s not a player, at least from what I’ve seen, who puts a team on his back and delivers big hits when the team needs it most.
Say, for instance, during the first six weeks of this season, when the Braves were dealing with a slew of injuries and Chipper Jones was carrying the offense with help from either Brian McCann or Yunel Escobar, but not much from Tex.
Slow-starter or not (and he’s a slow-starter, every season), the Braves needed to count on him for power and RBIs, and didn’t get it on a regular basis until about two months into the season, when they were already back in the standings.
Even yesterday, his two-homer, three-RBI game didn’t have much impact, seeing that both homers were solo shots, one early in the game when the Braves were already down 6-1, and the other, well, I’d have to look it up, it was so relatively meaningless near the end of an utter blowout loss.
Anyway, this isn’t to downplay his skills or output. Both are unquestionably big. He’s durable and piles up stats, year after year. But I know an impact offensive player, a player whose performance seems bigger than his numbers because he gets so many key hits. And I know the opposite.
A-Rod, for instance. Dude piles up huge numbers, year after year. Tremendous numbers. But let me ask you, how many SportsCenter highlights can you remember this year of A-Rod late-game homers or walk-off hits? Maybe a couple or few early on, but lately?
A-Rod’s the highest paid player in the game, and many will tell you he’s the best player in the game. But he’s not the player I would build a team around if I could have any player. No way.
And Teixeira will probably become one of the top-10 paid players, maybe top-five, but honestly, I can think of at last 10 other NL players I’d rather build a team around.
Tex probably will, and should, play on a big-payroll team like Boston or the Angels, a team where his money won’t be the subject of constant scrutiny every time he doesn’t come up with a big hit. A team that has plenty of other big bats.
The problem becomes, however, trying to trade him and get value in return. Because honestly, how many teams out there do you think fit the bill to trade for him right now? That team would presumably have to 1. Be willing to pick up the $4 mill or so he’s owed the rest of the season; 2. Not care that they probably can’t be assured of re-signing him (see explanation above); and 3. Be willing to give up a young player and/or prospect or two to make it worth it to the Braves to trade him.
Because if you’re the Braves, unless you can get, say, 1B/3B Kevin Youkilis from Boston (I can’t see that happening unless Big Papi wasn’t returning, and he’s about to return) or 1B Casey Kotchman and another mid-level prospect — Chone Figgins would be even better, but that seems highly unlikely —- from the Angels, or something similar from another team, then is it really clearly in your best interests to trade him?
Or might you decide to take the draft picks — a first-round and a sandwich pick b etween the first and second rounds — and keep Teixeira the rest of the year, maybe hold out hope that the marketplace for him won’t be what he thought or he likes it so much in Atlanta that he’d take less to stay (also unlikely; the man seems to be all business, not much emotion or sentiment, when it comes to baseball).
Having said all that, I’ll bet that if Wren pulls the trigger on a deal, it’ll be a solid trade for the Braves. He really is sharp in the deal-making aspect of the business, has proven that over the years both as a GM and as an assistant GM who had a lot of responsibilities.
We’ll get into Will Ohman later. Needless to say, several teams will be ready with offers for a top-flight veteran lefty reliever at the deadline. But right now, I’ve got to get ready and get out to Dolphin Stadium.
The East co-leading Mets and Phillies are idle tonight before starting a three-game series Tuesday in New York, and the Marlins are a half-game back. That means at the end of the night the Marlins are either going to be in a three-way tie for first place and the Braves seven games behind all of them, or the Braves are going to be six games in back of first-place NY and Philly.
Etc: During his 0-5 skid over his past five starts, Jo-Jo Reyes has posted a 7.65 ERA and .353 opponents’ average, and the Braves have scored a total of one run while he’s been in those five games. They scored zero runs while he was in four straight games before getting one run while he was in yesterday’s loss .
Jeff Francoeur’s .288 OBP is the fifth-lowest among NL qualifiers (minimum 3.1 plate appearances per scheduled game), and Gregor Blanco’s .315 slugging percentage is fifth-lowest among league qualifiers .
In order to finish with a plus-.500 record in this crucial nine-game stretch, after dropping two of three to Washington the Braves would have to go 4-2 against the Marlins and Phillies on this trip. Keep in mind, they haven’t had a winning trip all season .
Braves outfielders have 20 homers, fewest in the NL. Next-lowest total belongs to Dodgers outfielders (24) .
Teixeira is hitting .379 with a 1.293 OPS and 41 RBI in 31 day games, and hitting .229 with a .689 OPS and 31 RBI in 65 night games .
Francoeur’s skid continues unabated since his return from a three-game stint in the minors, but he’s hardly the only Braves hitter struggling. Kelly Johnson has hit .234 in his past 40 games with two homers, 13 RBIs, 27 strikeouts and a .665 OPS ..
Speaking of Francoeur, he’s hit .157 (13-for-83) with one double, one homer and four RBI in his past 23 games, with four walks, 21 strikeouts and a .436 OPS. He has more errors (three) than extra-base hits in that stretch.
OK, enough misery. Let’s loosen things up with a good tune.
”GRINGO HONEYMOON” by Robert Earl Keen
We were standin’ on a mountain top
Where the cactus flowers grow
I was wishin’ that the world would stop
When you said we’d better go
We took a rowboat ‘cross the Rio Grande
Captain Pablo was our guide
For two dollars in a weathered hand
He rowed us to the other side
CHORUS:
And we were dreamin’ like the end was not in sight
And we dreamed all afternoon
We asked the world to wait so we could celebrate
A gringo honeymoon
We stepped out onto the golden sand
The sun was high and burning down
Rented donkeys from an old blind man
Saddled up and rode to town
Tied our donkeys to an ironwood tree
By the street where the children play
We walked in the first place we could see
Servin’ cold beer in the shade
CHORUS:
We were drinkin’ like the end was not in sight
And we drank all afternoon
We asked the world to wait so we could celebrate
A gringo honeymoon
Met a cowboy who said that he
Was running from the DEA
He left a home, a wife, a family
When he made his getaway
We followed him on down a street of dust
To his one room run-down shack
He blew a smoke ring and he smiled at us
I ain’t never goin’ back
CHORUS:
We were flyin’ like the end was not in sight
And we soared all afternoon
We asked the world to wait so we could celebrate
A gringo honeymoon
He said there’s one last place that you should go
He took us to the town’s best bar
He knew a crusty caballero
Who played an old gut string guitar
And he sang like Marty Robbins could
Played like no one I’ve known
For a while we knew that life was good
It was ours to take back home
CHORUS:
We were singin’ like the end was not in sight
And we sang all afternoon
We asked the world to wait so we could celebrate
A gringo honeymoon
We were standin’ on a mountain top
Where the cactus flowers grow
I was wishin’ that the world would stop
When you said we’d better go
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It’s mid-July, and it’s must-win time
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
In as much as any single game in July can be a “must win” game, today is a must-win game for the Braves.
And they’ll have to do it without Brian McCann in the lineup, because he has the day off unless he pinch-hits or whatever.
Hey, I know it’s hot as blazes and McCann didn’t have the entire All-Star break off like most teammates, etc., but barring some injury I wouldn’t rest him today. Too important a game, and he’s too integral to the team’s success.
You trade an All-Star hitting .302 with 18 homers and 56 RBI for Corky Miller, who’s hit .093 with one homer and three RBI in 22 games (43 at-bats).
Anyway, back to today’s game. Battle of losing lefties, record-wise: Jo-Jo Reyes (3-8) vs. Odalis Perez, though Perez has an ERA nearly three-quarters of a run lower (3.71 to 4.40).
This matter with the Braves against lefties reached crisis stage weeks ago, and they now have a league-low homers and a league-low .380 slugging vs. lefties. This compared to ranking sixth in the league in slugging vs righties (.426) and tied for seventh in homers vs. righties (72).
The Braves average one homer every 30.7 at-bats against righties, compared to just one every 56 at-bats against lefties. That’s a huge disparity, but you didn’t need Mr. Math (me) to tell you that.
If they can stay in this thing, win today and win the next two series at Florida and Philly, Braves could be buyers - and if they are, a right-handed outfield bat is absolutely essential, in my humble opinion.
Did I mention that Braves outfielders are the most punchless outfield corps in baseball? Well, they are. They have a league-low 20 homers, three fewer than even the sad-sack Nats outfielders (who aren’t so sad-sack when they face the Braves, for some reason).
Braves are tied with Minnnesota’s OFs for fewest homers in the majors. In the NL, seven of the other 15 NL teams besides Atlanta have at least 40 homers from their outfielders.
The Francoeur thing: I’ve done some research and discovered the Braves aren’t getting a lot of production from the right-field position, in particular. Yes, that’s the spot manned by Jeff Francoeur.
(OK, folks, a dose of Sunday sarcasm was contained in that previous paragraph.)
But seriously, all due respect to the Double-A Misssissippi staff and Braves decision-makers who decided it was time to bring him back after three games down on the farm: Uh, no. It ain’t fixed.
But it’s also a pretty damning testimony about the state of the Braves’ upper-level minor league system OFs when they were willing to recall Francoeur after just three days of a demotion that was expected to last through the break, at least.
I mean, they obviously decided they had no options they trusted more or believed gave them a better chance to win right away than Francoeur.
And that’s saying something.
He had a homer in his second game back at L.A. on July 9, and in five games since then Francoeur is 4-for-19 with no extra-base hits, three strikeouts, no walks (but two hit-by-pitches) and two double plays grounded into.
He’s hit .151 (14-for-93) with two extra-base hits, six RBIs, 21 strikeouts and three walks in his past 25 games, with a .210 OBP and .194 slugging percentage.
Since April 13, he’s hit .223 with six homers, 33 RBI and a .283 OBP in 81 games. In 41 home games in that stretch, it’s .214 with three homers, 18 RBI, 34 strieouts and a eight double plays grounded into, which is one fewer GIDP than he has walks in that period at Turner Field.
His average with runners in scoring position is down to .196 in 107 at-bats, more at-bats than anyone else on the team (Teixeira, with 102, and McCann, with 95, are the only other Braves with as many as 70 at-bats with RISP).
Chipper Jones has the same number of hits (21) with runners in scoring position as Francoeur, but in 40 fewer at-bats. And that doesn’t include Chipper’s 28 walks in those situations (he has a .313 average and .505 OBP with RISP).
Francoeur has struck out or grounded into a double play in 31 of 107 at-bats with RISP.
On a positive note, today’s a day game, and he’s hit tons better in day games than at night (that’s baseball-insider term, “tons better.”)
Francoeur has hit .297 with five homers, 19 RBIs and an .859 OPS in 30 day games, compared to .202 with with four homers, 25 RBIs and a .559 OPS in 62 nigh games.
The Braves are 17-14 in day games and 29-37 at night.
Teixeira, by the way, absolutely rakes in day games, with a .366 average, 10 homers, 38 RBIs and a huge 1.230 OPS in 30 day games. In other words, he hits like a $22-23 mill-a-year player in day games.
So maybe the Cubs should give him a contract like that.
Oh, wait, they’ve got Derrek Lee.
In 59 night games, by the way, Teixeira has hit .229 with seven homers, 31 RBIs and a .689 OPS.
Tex’s .367 slugging percentage in night games is 10 points higher than Mark Kotsay’s, 199 points lower than McCann’s (.566) and 266 points lower than Chipper’s (.635).
Streak ends quietly: I forgot to mention last week that Jair Jurrjens’ remarkable home winning streak ended. So now’s a good time to mention it, since he has a new and unwelcome home streak - consecutive losses after last night’s defeat.
In his first 13 home starts for Detroit and Atlanta, Jurrjens was 7-0 with a 3.31 ERA, and his teams were 13-0 in those games. Yes, 13-0.
But he’s lost both his July home starts, going 0-2 with a 6.08 ERA in those games against the Phillies and Nationals. The Braves scored a total of one run while he was in those games.
Other home news that’s not good: Remember when the Braves had the best home record in baseball, when they couldn’t lose at home? It wasn’t that long ago, but it sure seems that way.
The Bravos are 6-11 with a .243 average and 4.56 ERA in their past 17 home games.
Etc.: Don’t look now, but Chipper’s lead in the batting race has shrunk from an absurdly wide gulf to a still-sizeable 15 points. He’s hitting .374 entering today, while hard-charging Albert Pujols is at .359 . Francoeur went 3-for-5 with two homers and seven RBI in an April 12 game at Washington. In his other nine games against the Nats, he’s 5-for-31 (.161) with no extra-base hits and two RBI . The Braves swept three-game series from Cincinnati and San Diego to begin May, going 6-0 with a .333 average and 2.67 ERA in that span. Since then they are 28-36 with a .253 average, 3.90 ERA and a 4.1 scoring average. And since June 28, they are 6-10 with a .230 average and 4.35 ERA.
A tune: Game’s starting, so got to get this posted. Been listening to the expanded, remastered two-disc set of Whiskeytown’s seminal album Strangers Almanac and can’t get some songs out of my head. By the way, the new CD by The Hold Steady is as good as any I’ve bought this year, and their best to date. Oh, and for me, the movie The Dark Knight lived up to the billing — and then some. Terrific movie.
And finally, do any of you get that same liberating feeling I get sometimes when you hit the delete key on a certain phone number in your cell, sometimes when you’ve waited too long before finally doing it? Nothing quite like that feeling.
”TURN AROUND” by Ryan Adams (Whiskeytown)
Want to cross
But I don’t think I can
It’s too weak here
Even where I stand
Come here darling
Let me see you hold my hand
So we can mend your broken halo
All I want from you
Well all I want from you
Is for you to turn around
Turn around
Wanted to damage
So I damaged it some
We used to have it all
Now I just got some
The silence, perfections, mysteries
All easy to fall from your lips
All the while lies were told to me
In shapeless secrets
When all I want from you
All I want from you
Is for you to turn around
Turn around
Turn around
Turn around
Can’t you turn around
Can’t you turn around
Can’t you turn around
Why can’t you turn around?
Turn around
Turn around
Turn around
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Don’t rain on my second-half parade
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Well, I was about to say good morning, happy second half, in that refreshed, welcome-to-the-restart-of-the-season kind of way .but a couple of things popped into my e-mail inbox and they’re raining on my good morning parade.
Shall I share?
First of all, some dude named Scott sent me this:
“You people in Atlanta have really lost it. Do you really think the Phillies, Mets and Marlins are all going to collapse and allow the below average Braves to win the NL East?
“Stop drinking the Kool Aid and get back to reality. The Braves are not even a blip on the screen. They are no longer a factor, whatsoever. Accept the fact that the Braves will not make the playoffs for the third straight year, and are no longer contenders. The team needs to rebuild because they are not even close to those other teams anymore. Deal with it. The Braves run is over. They are no longer contenders.”
Like I said, good morning to you too. Scott, are you by chance a New Yorker?
Not sure why he sent that to me, unless he thinks I had Kool Aid this morning with my protein bar. Or maybe he read the Q&A with Frank Wren where Wren at least keeps alive the possibility the Braves can contend this second half. And frankly (hey, that was fun), if he was ready to give up on the team and say so publicly, I’m not sure what kind of GM he would be.
I thought Wren was plenty firm in his remarks. And I summarize: No more talking about winning. Gotta win. Or else tough decisions come.
I also got this little nugget of an e-mail from BetUS.com: a listing of odds to win the World Series. Mets and Phillies are 12/1. Marlins are 30/1. Braves are 40/1. (Hey, the Nats are 1000/1.)
Thank goodness for Steve Hummer’s good humor in the paper this morning - bubble wrap Chipper and “holy men on base, bat man” - or I might have to go crawl back in bed and not bother even covering the start of the season half (DOB is taking a couple of days to recover from his cross country excursion to cover the All-Star game.)
Hey, another e-mail just popped in, a plea asking for Terry Pendleton to be replaced by Brian McCann’s dad. Are blogs not good enough anymore? People need to vent directly into my inbox?
OK fine. As long as you’re reading, good people, talk back to me any way you choose.
These are bizarre times for the Braves. It’s like Wren is sitting with his hand over a big red button, just waiting to push it (I’m visualizing Family Feud, work with me here) and send Mark Teixeira and maybe Will Ohman on their way for some future help. Or as DOB suggested, maybe some immediate help at first base but with less of a price tag and some length on his contract.
Either way, Teixeira’s impending free agent status, not to mention his agent, will make trade prospects tricky.
Wren didn’t want to put a number on it yesterday or a direct timetable - say, for example, the Braves are 10 games out on such-and-such a date, he’ll make his move. And he reminded us he could still make a trade after the July 31 non-waiver deadline.
But just for the sake of discussion, I’m taking a look at the schedule and coming up with one myself. The Braves’ first nine games out of the break are against NL East opponents - three against the Nats, three against the Marlins and three against the Phillies. That gets them to Monday July 28 and four days before the non-waiver trade deadline.
What better way to figure out if they have the stuff to contend in the NL East than against NL East teams and then you’ve still got time to pull the trigger.
Of course they need to start well on this nine-game venture or it doesn’t matter what happens at the end. Not sure if 6-3 would do it, but perhaps 7-2 or 8-1 would. Though, really, the odds are the Braves won’t do it, if they played like they have all season.
To get Wren’s hand away from that red button it’s got to be a statement - or as Wren said, a feel, that this team is headed in the right direction.
What it boils down to really, is this team has got to prove - not to the fans, or the bloggers, or Scott, the e-mailer - but prove it to their own GM that they’ve got some fight in them.
If not, then he’ll start taking things apart. And when you start with a cleanup hitter who’s leading the team in RBIs and plays some of the best defense on the infield, that’s saying something.
And while everybody around here was idle last night, the Mets won their 10th in a row to pull into a tie for the NL East lead with the Phillies. The Braves start the second half 6 ½ games behind two teams. Maybe it’s already over.
Or maybe Scott would be so kind as to send his e-mail to the Braves and let them post it on a bulletin board.
Meantime, Tim Hudson heads to the mound tonight to face a Nationals team he’s toyed with for a 7-1 career record and a 1.13 ERA. And I’ll get some updates on you on Hampton, Soriano later and company later this afternoon as I get them.
Oh, yeah, and happy second half .Here we go .
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All-Star Game at home of Babe & Mick
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
New York — When that No. 4 train comes rumbling out of the ground and the iconic structure comes into view, it gives you goosebumps the first time you see it.
I remember that experience when I initially viewed Yankee Stadium, where we’ll squeeze in tonight for an All-Star Game that should be special regardless of who wins or who does what between the lines.
Even jaded sports writers can get a tinge of excitement when they see iconic buildings that still stand, including baseball’s Fenway Park, Wrigley Field and Yankee Stadium.
After this season, only Fenway and Wrigley will be open for major league ball.
The dozens of living Hall of Famers who’ll attend and the special presentations they have planned are going to make tonight’s last All-Star Game at The House That Ruth Built one to lock away in the memory banks.
“Win, lose or draw, we’ll all be taking a ton of memories away from here,” Chipper Jones said yesterday, when he took his parents, Lynee and Larry, out to The Stadium for a tour of Monument Grove, where dad got his picture taken next to the one that honors his hero, the late Mickey Mantle.
Multiple renovations and a clutter of advertising have detracted a bit from the charm and nostalgia of Yankee Stadium, but it remains a special place with an aura all its own.
Last night after putting on an epic power-hitting display for the ages during the Home Run Derby, Josh Hamilton gushed, “My backyard used to be Yankee Stadium, and I used to be Babe Ruth, Mickey Mantle, Joe DiMaggio and all those guys. Now I’m looking at the [preserved] tops of their lockers.
“I mean, just an awesome feeling.”
On the broadcast tonight, they’re going to hammer you with history, try to convince everyone that this has been the site of more historical moments and big games than any other ballpark in America.
And this time, they’re not going to need to exaggerate to make the case. It’s true.
“I hit a ball off the façade of the upper deck,” said Jones, recalling his 1999 homer, the first of four he hit in 14 regular-season games at Yankee Stadium. “I could just remember rounding first and thinking that my dad would be saying to my mom at that point, ‘Our son just hit a home run in the same park as Mickey Mantle did.’”
Brian McCann has already made the All-Star team three times in his first three full seasons in the majors, but this Midsummer Classic is one the Braves catcher said he won’t forget, regardless of how many others he might have the good fortune to participate in.
“Yankee Stadium — there’s not a better setting for an All-Star Game,” he said. “It’s probably going to be one of the best days of my life.”
OK, I want to know how many of the denizens (and others reading this) have been to Yankee Stadium and what’s your favorite memory of the place. Or just your impressions.
It’s not as charming a place as Fenway or Wrigley, in my view. Not close, really. But the joint is special, no question. Just wish they’d preserved it at near its original state, or tried to keep the same aesthetic, the way they did when they renovated Fenway.
Big day in The City: The game’s in the Bronx, of course, but the big stuff starts this afternoon in Manhattan with the Red Carpet Parade down Sixth Avenue.
They’re closing off streets and most living Hall of Famers will walk down the avenue alongside current All-Stars. Should be pretty cool, though I doubt I’ll get to see it.
We’ve got meetings today, including a BBWAA (Baseball Writers Association of America) officers meeting this morning with baseball union officials to discuss the flap over our organization’s request for them to stop putting in contract clauses that include incentives for receiving votes in BBWAA awards.
Our association’s stance was that we wanted it stopped because of the appearance it gave/gives when players like Curt Schilling talks openly about the fact that he’ll get $50,000 if he gets votes for the Cy Young Award and jokes that he’ll pay a writer to vote for him.
As you can imagine, that opens a can of worms. Thanks, Curt, for complicating things unnecessarily.
Doesn’t look like the union is going to work with us on it, though. They’ve got a bit of power, you might have heard, and they’re probably going to Bigfoot us into backing away from the demand that they remove and cease putting in such clauses in the future or risk their clients not being eligible.
Anyway, after that meeting we’ve got the general BBWAA members meeting, after which Bud Selig will sit at the table with us and take questions from writers in an informal setting. It’s usually pretty interesting.
We’ve got another officers meeting after that one, so it’s going to be a busy day, and I’ll be hacking away trying to make deadline on a couple of stories between those meetings and the start of the game tonight.
Oh, and chasing down Braves rumors, of course. I’ll see a bunch of guys today and talk to some about what they’re hearing regarding the Braves and particularly the dangling of Mark Teixeira in potential trade talks.
Talk to you folks a little later.
A quick tune: Here’s one from an underrated genius - that’s not hyperbole in this case — songwriter from Athens, Ga.
”ESTRANGED” by Jack Logan
I’m hidin’ in the lounges
Of the immigrant-run motels
I won’t pick up no receiver
Can’t you tell?
What’s got me acting this way?
I’m estranged
The very sound of her voice
Is like a blow to my head
I don’t want her alive
And I don’t want her dead
What’s got me talking that way?
I’m estranged
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Bye-bye San Diego, hello Bronx
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
San Diego to New York — It’s never easy taking that cab ride to the San Diego airport on Sunday night, the sun setting, the cool breeze blowing, the pretty ladies walking along the sidewalks, the outdoor cafes bustling, the sailboats on the harbor.
But duty calls, and we’re leaving the paradisical city with its tanned denizens, its rich assortment of tattooed locals, straw-fedora’d cruisers, wealthy tourists, hard-working immigrants, and bums — surf or street, they got ‘em all — and did we mention beauties? Of every nationality, they got those, you better believe it.
We’re about to experience some culture shock, of the baseball variety and otherwise, flying from San Diego to New York’s LaGuardia, with an oh-so-convenient stop in Atlanta to change planes (psss, Delta, maybe a direct flight to New York would interest one or two people?).
And we’re going from the Petco Park in the trendy, tony Gaslamp District by the water, to Yankee Stadium in the Bronx. But that’s more than all right, folks. Petco’s a great place to watch a series, but I want my All-Star Game in the House That Ruth Built (or Wrigley, or Fenway, although I should say, the one in San Francisco’s beautiful park last year was a pretty special setting).
But I can put up with the stifling subway ride or two, and a forecast for thunderstorms, to be part of this last All-Star Game at the ballpark that New Yorkers (and plenty of others) call simply The Stadium.
Even a veteran like Chipper Jones doesn’t try to play it cool about playing in this All-Star Game. Hoss is excited, as he said again Sunday after the Braves’ finished off a direly needed series win against the Padres with a 12-3 win that couldn’t have done anything to clear up whether the Braves will be buyers, sellers or perhaps both at the trade deadline. More on that in a moment.
Chipper was in the visitor’s clubhouse, packed and ready to limo it to the airport to board a charter flight along with Brian McCann, McCann’s wife Ashley, and Braves trainer Jeff “Bubba” Porter, who was picked to serve as NL trainer.
Mac’s parents were going to fly up to New York, and Chipper’s folks are flying up from the Double Dime Ranch in Texas, along with his wife. Chipper hasn’t been to the All-Star Game since 2001, hard as that is to believe.
“It’s an experience in and of itself, and to be able to share it with those guys is something I’m really looking forward to,” Chipper said, referring to his parents. “Every All-Star experience is tremendous, but I can’t wait to see the look on my dad’s face when we interact together with some of the greats in the game.
“You interact with all those guys at some point during the course of a season. But my dad doesn’t get that opportunity very often, and I’d love to be able to take him down to the clubhouse, and take him out to Monument Grove, watch the look on his face.”
When I asked if he was bringing his kids, Chipper smiled and said, “No, just grownup weekend.”
Besides, his son Shea is going to get a tour of his namesake stadium in Flushing in the second half of the season when the Braves play the Mets in the other New York stadium that’s also seeing its last season of major league ball.
McCann’s been selected to the All-Star Game all three seasons that he’s been on the opening day roster, the first player in franchise history that can make that claim. But like Jones, he didn’t try to play it cool. He’s pumped about this.
“If there’s a year to make the All-Star team, it’s this year,” said McCann, who had three hits including his 18th homer Sunday. “Yankee Stadium — there’s not a better setting for an All-Star Game. It’s gonna be the last one played at the Stadium. It’s probably going to be one of the best days of my life.”
Did I mention he’s excited?
All the players are going to take part in a parade down Sixth Avenue in Manhattan Tuesday afternoon, and all living Hall of Famers have been invited to participate in that and in a special pregame ceremony. It’s going to be a goosebump-raising scene, I’ll bet. They’re going to show highlights from that on the broadcast before Tuesday’s night’s game, is my understanding.
About this weekend: Well, we said before the trip that the six-game swing through Southern California might determine whether the Braves would trade Mark Teixeira before the deadline and/or try to add a power bat to their lineup if they felt like they were still in the race.
We also said it might not determine anything, if the Braves didn’t lose four or more games or win four or more during the trip. And they ended up splitting six, and going to the break 6-1/2 games back, still in that middle ground of are-they-or-aren’t-they in this thing, at least for another week or so.
As we said last week, there is a way the Braves could be both buyer and seller before the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline, and the rumor out of Boston is exactly the type of scenario we referred to.
If the Braves could get an impact first baseman to step right in for Teixeira and not be much of a dropoff, then they might trade him before the deadline and also try to make a move to strengthen their outfield. In other words, trade Teixeira without waving the white flag on the season.
If they were able to get Kevin Youkilis from Boston in a trade for Teixeira, that’s a deal that would fit that description. Youklis is a solid player and team leader, a good glove man who hits for average, power and draws walks. He’s a gritty guy the Braves who might be just what this Braves team need.
Won’t give you 30-40 homers and 130 RBI like Tex, but Youkilis is on pace for about 25 and 110 this year.
Frankly, I have doubts about whether Boston would trade him. He’s still very affordable, and he’s extremely popular in Sox Nation, which is no small matter of concern.
If I were the Braves, I’d actually do that deal for Youkilis and just about any mid-level prospect you’d name. If it came right down to it, I think I’d do it straight up, since Braves can afford Youkilis, and seem very unlikely to be willing to spend what it’ll take to re-sign Tex.
You’d rather have two draft picks than Youkilis? No way, I say. Give me a known commodity like him any time.
But again, I have my doubts as to whether the Red Sox would trade him for Tex. We’ll see. I should be able to talk to a couple of people tomorrow to get a better idea if there’s anything there.
OK, gotta get on this plane. Wanted to talk more about what this weekend series at San Diego meant. I mean, Padres are bad - remember they lost 10 of 11 at home before beating Braves in series opener Friday.
But Braves still won two of three and showed some serious offense today. That’s one thing Padres have done well, pitch and hold down other lineups. So for the Braves to do what they did today, against a pitcher (Randy Woolf) who’s been very tough at Petco, was a good sign.
We’ll see. Still a lot of ball to play. And I’d guess it’ll be another series or two before the Braves make any major decisions regarding Teixeira - that is, unless the Red Sox would actually pull the trigger and give them Youkilis.
OK, a tune before we depart: Love this song, which was covered memorably by Wilco and Billy Bragg on one of their two terrific Mermaid Avenue CDs of Guthrie covers.
“CALIFORNIA STARS” by Woody Guthrie
I’d like to rest my heavy head tonight
On a bed of California stars
I’d like to lay my weary bones tonight
On a bed of California stars
I’d love to feel your hand touching mine
And tell me why i must keep working on
Yes, I’d give my life to lay my head tonight
On a bed of California stars
I’d like to dream my troubles all away
On a bed of California stars
Jump up from my starbed and make another day
Underneath my California stars
They hang like grapes on vines that shine
And warm the lovers’ glass like friendly wine
So, I’d give this world just to dream a dream with you
On our bed of California stars
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Are Braves to be buyers or sellers?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
With the July 31 trade deadline looming, and the Braves’ division-title chances diminishing with every series lost, and contending teams eager to know exactly who’s available from non-contenders … yeah, this could be a big weekend of determination for Los Bravos.
Yes, their series that starts tonight in San Diego could determine the course of the rest of the Braves’ season and beyond. These three games could ultimately decide whether they keep Mark Teixeira and Will Ohman and add another piece or two to try and make a run at the title in a not-very-overwhelming division.
Or whether they, for the first time in a long time, throw up the white flag on this season, get some young talent back for Teixeira (and perhaps Ohman), and watch the three teams ahead of them fight it out for what once, not long ago, seemed a birthright for the Braves and their fans - the division title.
Of course, there’s also a pretty good chance the Braves could win just two out of three this weekend, and remain 6-1/2 games out of first place, or perhaps 5-1/2 out — albeit with three teams ahead of them — with 67 games to play after the break.
In which case they’re still in that difficult area, as they see it. Do you think Frank Wren, in his first year as GM, and Bobby Cox, in perhaps his next-to-last as manager, would lean toward pulling the plug on this season if they’re 5-1/2 or 6-1/2 back at the break? How ‘bout if they’re 4-1/2 back?
I really don’t know which way they’re leaning and I don’t know that they do. This weekend, to me, seems like it could be a deciding factor, but probably only if it veers sharply in one direction or the other. If the Braves sweep the Padres and gain a game or two on the division lead, I don’t think they’ll make a decision on Teixeira until at least another series or two after the break.
But if they were to lose two out of three or get swept by the lowly Padres, who’ve lost 10 of their past 11 home games, and dropped 17 of their past 22 games overall … well, then all bets are off.
In that event, the Braves would probably be heating up the phone lines during the break, trying to flame the bidding war for Teixeira, who’s of course eligible for free agency after this season.
Conversely if the Braves come in to San Diego, play well and win the series, they might look at the possible return of Mike Hampton and/or Tom Glavine after the break, and the possible return of closer Rafael Soriano from his perplexing elbow issues, and decide that a piece or two might give them a very real chance to make the kind of good — not historic, just good — run that would be required to reel in the teams ahead of them in the race.
Yes, Xavier Nady has been on the radar for weeks, if not months. The Pirates outfielder has hit .320 with 24 doubles, 12 homers and 55 RBI, and his splits are as good or better against lefties (.318/.432/.530) than against righties (.320/.360./533).
Braves badly need an outfield bat to give them some more pop, particularly against lefties. And he’s one who could be had without mortgaging the farm to get him. Unlike, say, Jason Bay, who’s not only going to cost more in return because of his power numbers and affordable contract for 2009, but who also has only a .222 average and two homers and a .403 slugging percentage in 72 at-bats against lefties (he’s .310 with 15 homers and .561 slugging vs. righties).
If the Braves aim a little lower, they might make a run at someone like Cincy’s Ryan Freel, who could platoon against lefties.
Ohman’s attractive: He’s a veteran lefty who’s a free agent after the season, just like Ron Mahay last July, when the Braves got Mahay in the Teixeira deal.
Ohman has been outstanding for the Braves, and they don’t even think of trading him if they’re serious about making a run after the break. But if they decide to abort and aim for the future, he’s just behind Tex on the list of likely-to-be-traded.
He’s tied for ninth among NL relievers in opponents’ average (.200), which is stellar for a situational lefty who’s limited lefty hitters to a mere .147 average and .205 OBP. He’s only allowed one homer in 135 at-bats against all hitters.
Only four major league relievers have made more appearances than Ohman (47).
But I’m looking at next season and thinking that the Braves aren’t going to pay for both Ohman, who could get $3 mill or more per season in a multi-year deal, and Mike Gonzalez, who’ll be a fifth-year arbitration guy.
With Gonzalez’ price tag cheaper and with Gonzo being a closer option, it seems more likely to me they’d keep him. I just can’t see teams offering a bounty in a possible trade for Gonzalez so soon after Tommy John surgery.
Did we mention . The Braves have 70 homers and a .426 slugging percentage in 2,097 at-bats against right-handers, and only 19 homers and a .382 slugging percentage in 1,066 at-bats vs. lefties.
That’s a homer every 23.3 at-bats vs. right-handers, and one every 56 at-bats vs. lefties.
The no-support matchup: Something’s gotta change tonight for either Jake Peavy or Jo-Jo Reyes. One of them has to get a little run support, doesn’t he?
Well, not necessarily. Could be a 1-0 game, of course ( Braves must cringe to think of a 1-0, or 2-1, or 3-2 game, etc., considering they’ve lost 24 consecutive one-run road games since mid-August, one stat that makes me shake my head in wonder every time I type it).
Anyway, regarding Padres ace Peavy and Braves youngster Reyes. What they have in common is a lack of run support. Big-time.
Get this: Peavy is 1-3 in his past six home starts despite a 2.08 ERA. He’s pitched six conscutive quality starts in that stretch, including three games with no runs allowed. But the Padres have supported him with zero or one support runs while he was in five of those games.
Peavy went 0-3 in three starts against the Braves in 2006, despite twice allowing only two runs in seven innings. In each of those two games the Padres scored no runs while he was in. He didn’t face the Braves last season.
In the case of Reyes, he’s just 1-6 in his past nine starts, getting barely two support runs per nine innings pitched in that span.
He’s got a 4.50 ERA in that period, but seven of the 27 earned runs he allowed came in one five-inning start on May 23. Since then he’s posted a 3.67 ERA and five quality starts in eight game — and has a 1-5 record to show for it.
The Braves scored no runs while he was in four of his last eight starts, including no runs at all behind him during his current three-game losing skid.
By the way, Chipper Jones is 6-for-12 with three homers against Peavy, and Jeff Francoeur is 5-for-9 against the Alabama native.
The Braves have won 16 of 20 gainst the Padres, including a three-game sweep May 6-8 in Atlanta. But the Braves are coming into this streak as cold with the bats as the Padres are.
Actually, colder in the past week or so.
The Braves are just 3-8 with a .206 batting average since June 28, and they are 9-24 on the road with a .234 average since April 26.
That includes this remarkable stretch in their last four road games: 1-3 with a .163 average and 10 runs, with 12 of their 20 hits and nine of their 10 runs in that stretch coming in one game, Tuesday’s win at Dodger Stadium.
In the other three road games in that stretch, one at Toronto and two at L.A., the Braves have hit .094 (8-for-85) and scored one run, that on a homer. Staggering.
“CALIFORNIA SNOW” by Dave Alvin & Tom Russell
I’m just tryin’ to make a livin’
I’m an old man at thirty-nine
With two kids and an ex-wife
Who moved up to Riverside
I’m workin’ down on the border
Drivin’ back roads every night
Mountains east of El Cajon
North of the Tecate line.
Where the California summer sun
Will burn right through your soul
But in the winter you can freeze to death
In the California snow.
I catch the ones I’m able to
And watch the others slip away
I know some by their faces
And I even know some by name
I guess they think that we’re all
Movie stars and millionaires
I guess that they still believe
That dreams come true up here.
But I guess the weather’s warmer down in Mexico
And no one ever tells them ‘bout the California snow.
Last winter I found a man and wife
Just about daybreak
Layin’ in a frozen ditch
South of the interstate
I wrapped ‘em both in blankets
But she’d already died
The next day we sent him back alone
Across the borderline.
I don’t know where they came from
Or where they planned to go
But we carried her all night long
Through the California snow.
Sometimes when I’m alone out here
I get to thinkin’ about my life
Maybe I should go to Riverside
And try to fix things with my wife
Or maybe just get in my truck
And drive as far as I can go
Away from all the ghosts that haunt
The California snow.
Where the California summer sun
Can burn right to your soul
And in the winter you can freeze to death
In the California snow
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Tex and Holliday have things in common, including Boras
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
This isn’t directed at most of you, just those who’ve been beating the Matt Holliday drum for weeks on end. And I only bring it up because with the trade deadline just 22 days away and the Mark Teixeira speculation and rumors increasing, it’s relevant.
And that is: Seems a bit ironic that so many on this blog rip the Teixeira trade, and yet many others propose that a trade for Colorado outfielder Matt Holliday is exactly what the Braves need.
They need an outfielder with a good bat, yes, but there are reasons this doesn’t compute.
One year after the Braves traded a handful of prospects to get Teixeira and lefty Ron Mahay, and were subsequently ripped by many fans and media members despite Tex’s nearly one-RBI-a-game production in his tenure with the Braves, some would have you believe the Braves should basically repeat themselves?
Because that’s what it would be, more or less. The Braves probably wouldn’t have to give up quite as much young talent as they gave up to get Tex and Mahay, but they’d have to give up several prospects or young players to land Holliday, provided the Rockies are even willing to trade him by July 31.
And for what? The Braves would be getting a hitter with similar stats to Teixeira, only Holliday’s put up big numbers for only about half as long as Teixeira has. They’d be getting a player who’d be under their control for the rest of this season and for 2009, just as Tex was for the rest of 2007 and 2008, who’d make more ($13.5 mill) in that second season than Tex ($12.5 mill) is getting this season.
Did we mention that Holliday is represented by the same agent as Tex? Yeah, some dude named Scott Boras. Ring a bell?
Did we mention that Holliday has played his home games at Coors Field, and that his home/road differential is quite severe? He’s hitting .368 with a .638 slugging percentage at home this season, and .313/.489 on the road.
Last season, Holliday hit .377 with 25 homers and a .723 slugging percentage at Coors, and .301 with 11 homers and a .485 slugging percentage on the road.
For his career, he’s hit .364 with 78 homers and a .659 slugging percentage in 327 games at Coors, compared to .278 with 39 homers and a .452 slugging percentage in 306 road games.
Folks, that’s a huge disparity. And Turner Field is not Coors Field, by any stretch of the imagination. It’s a pitchers’ park more than a hitters’ park.
Teixeira also benefited from playing home games in a hitters’ park (Arlington) for most o his career, but his 102 homers and .568 slugging percentage in home games and 85 homers and .489 slugging on the road isn’t anywhere near as pronounced as Holliday’s. It’s fairly typical for most hitters, actually.
Last season, Teixeira actually had slightly better power numbers on the road than at home, with 16 of his 30 homers coming in road games and a .565 road slugging percentage compared to .560 at home.
So far this season, he’s had nine homers and a .495 slugging percentage at home, and eight homers and a .490 slugging percentage on the road.
In other words, there is no question whatsoever about the “legitimacy” of Tex’s stats. They are what they are, with little or anything to do with ballpark.
Holliday is a fine hitter at home or on the road, but he’s a much scarier one at Coors Field. He’d probably adjust to whatever home park he goes to, but until he does, we won’t know that for sure, will we?
Anyway, that’s not the main part of why I question the logic. It goes back to the fact that he’d only be under control for one more season, he’s represented by the same Dark Knight that so many here have suggested the Braves should avoid at all costs, and, oh yeah, Holliday isn’t nearly the defensive player that Teixeira is.
So some of you really want the Braves to give up young talent for the second season in a row to get a guy that Boras could take to the free-agent market a little over a year later? Really?
If you ask me, the Braves should increase the payroll to $120 million next season and tell Teixeira they can afford to give him a backloaded contract in the range of six or seven years at an average of about $20 mill per season.
He’s worth that even if he’s a slow starter each season, even if he’s a bit robotic and doesn’t produce as many huge clutch hits as you’d hope someone of his big stats would. Why is he worth it? Because he’s durable as hell and he’s a Gold Glove-caliber first baseman, on top of the 30-40 homers and 120-140 RBI.
But if it goes much higher than that, you bid adieu and take the draft picks — that is, unless the team is 7-8 games back on about July 20.
In that case, I’d say if you’re the Braves, you hope, you need, to have couple of teams at the ready with trade offers, and you have them on notice that you’ll be ready to pull the trigger close to the deadline if the Braves don’t make up ground quickly in that final week.
Is that possible, to get a couple of teams with good offers, and have them wait until you know for sure whether you have any realistic shot at winning the division? I don’t know. That’s why the GM is paid a lot more than me, and why he can’t wear Chuck Taylors to work.
In case you missed it: I just filed an item about Jair Jurrjens getting NL Rookie of the Month.
Three days after being left off the All-Star team, the Curacao Kid at least got some consolation. A day after getting his ninth win with a solid performance against the Dodgers, he got the NL Rookie of the Month award. Nice couple of days.
He went 3-0 with a 1.63 ERA in four June starts, including no earned runs allowed in his last three after missing one start due to a sprained ankle. He’s 9-4 with a 3.00 ERA in 18 starts heading to the break.
Jurrjens, 22, was injured when he slipped on clubhouse steps on June 10 at Wrigley Field in Chicago, the night before his scheduled start. He returned for his next start and pitched 21-2/3 innings without surrendering an earned run during the rest of June.
As you all know, the Braves got Jurrjens and center-field prospect Gorkys Hernandez from Detroit in an offseason trade for shortstop Edgar Renteria. That’s the kind of trade that you can hang your hat on as a GM. Wow, what a steal it’s shaping up to be, as much as I like Edgar as a person and player.
They’re saying “‘Druuu ” and not “boooo ” No actually, they’re saying “Booo,” actually. The reception that Andruw Jones gets at Dodger Stadium is not something you’d wish on anyone. Seriously, it’s uncomfortable just witnessing it, so I can’t even imagine what it was must be like to be living it.
And to think, these have been relatively small crowds, in his first homestand after six weeks away for knee surgery. How rough must it have been in those last weeks before the slumping center fielder went to the DL? How rough is it going to get if he doesn’t start hitting?
I mean, he’s got another season left on that two-year, $36.2 mill contract. And it’s not like the Dodgers are going to be able to trade him if he’s hitting under .200 with no power and a strikeout every three at-bats.
Oh, well. Of all that’s gone wrong with the Braves this season, at least they haven’t had to deal with another season of Andruw on the downward slide. Or do some of you believe things would’ve been different if he’d stayed in Atlanta?
Because I don’t feel that. Not watching him flail away. He looks lost at the plate, really does. The way he did for most of last season and much of the year before.
OK, but enough about Andruw. Braves have plenty of their own worries.
Did want to bring him up, though, to point out that now, not even Dodgers or Nationals outfielders have as few homers as Braves outfielders do. Atlanta outfielders have a not-so-grand total of 18 homers. Yes, 18. Or, one fewer than pitcher-turned-outfielder Rick Ankiel has for the Cardinals.
Hard to believe, isn’t it. For so long the Braves got so many bombs from the outfielders, including 70 from Andruw and Jeff Francoeur alone in 2006.
Now, they have 18 homers with 91 games gone and 71 to play. Braves outfielders rank 13th in average (.254), 13th in OBP (.316), 14th in RBI (111) and 15th in slugging (.370).
With all due respect to Matt Diaz, his pending return ain’t the answer to that problem. And how many believe that Francoeur’s going to have a huge second half?
They need to get another outfield bat. A right-handed bat. Easier said than done, I know. But it really needs to happen.
Blanco keeps going: On a positive note, rookie Gregor Blanco continues to provide a spark in the leadoff role and slowly raises his average against lefties.
He’s 18-for-50 (.360) with seven walks in his past 12 games, including two walks and an RBI single in Tuesday night’s win. For the season, he’s hitting .276 (21-for-76) with a .375 OBP in the leadoff role.
And after hitting under .200 against lefties for much of the first half, he’s got the average up to .231 (15-for-65) with a .320 OBP against them now. Still not good, but an improvement.
Against righties, Blanco is hitting .279 (50-for-179) with a .387 OBP. Platoon, anyone?
I won’t bring up Freel’s name, because I know it makes some folks light-headed.
Day off Thursday: Bunch of the Braves are going to play golf as Mark Kotsay’s guests at The Bridges, an exclusive club near San Diego.
By the way, Kotsay’s three-hit game Tuesday was a big sigh of relief for him and the Braves. After missing five weeks with his back troubles, it’s taken him a week to get back in the swing of things.
He was 1-for-17 in five games before that 3-for-4 outburst last night.
Oh, and the San Diego series won’t be an easy one for the Braves, with Jake Peavy and Greg Maddux scheduled to pitch the first two games. At least they don’t have to face Peavy in the last game before the break - the Braves get the far less formidable veteran Randy Wolf (5-8, 4.59) on Sunday.
Chipper, for those who might have forgotten, does quite well against Peavy. Hoss is 6-for-12 with three homers off the ace from Alabama. Oh, and Francoeur is 4-for-9 against him.
You think the Braves have struggled lately? Talk to the Padres, who’ve lost 16 of their past 21 games.
Gonzo in a groove: It’s early to jump to conclusions, but Mike Gonzalez appears to be rounding back into game shape quickly, wouldn’t you say?
After giving up three runs (two earned), three hits and a homer in his second appearance back from the DL, the lefty has allowed one hit and no walks with 11 strikeouts in 6-2/3 innings over his past six outings, including give straight perfect appearances.
He got two strikeouts last night to get the Braves out of the ugliness that Julian Tavarez constructed in Tavarez’s Braves debut (and if Tavarez doesn’t have more than he showed last night, he won’t be around long).
I went back to Gonzalez’s Pittsburgh days, when he moved into the closer role late in the 2005 season. Check out his eye-popping stats since Sept. 7, 2005:
92 games, 1.72 ERA, 30-for-30 saves, 94 innings, 66 hits, 18 earned runs, 2 homers, 47 walks, 111 strikeouts, .196 opponents’ average.
Wow.
In eight games since returning from his 12-1/2-month rehab for Tommy John surgery, Gonzalez has allowed a .129 opponents’ average with 13 strikeouts, no walks and four hits in 31 at-bats.
Right-handers are 3-for-23 (.130) against him, with nine strikeouts. Lefties are 1-for-8 with four strikeouts.
In five night games, he’s given up nothing — no hits, no walks, six strikeouts in 4-2/3 innings.
”CALIFORNIA COTTONFIELDS” by Merle Haggard
My driftin’ memory goes back to the spring of ‘43,
When I was just a child in momma’s arms.
My daddy plowed the ground and hoped that someday we could leave
This run-down mortgaged Oklahoma farm.
And then one night I heard my daddy sayin’ to my momma
That he’d finally saved enough to go.
California was his dream of paradise, for he had seen
Pictures in magazines that told him so.
California cottonfields,
Where labor camps were filled with worried men with broken dreams.
California cottonfields,
As close to wealth as daddy ever came.
Almost everything we had was sold or left behind,
From my daddy’s plow to the soup that momma canned.
Some folks came to say farewell or see what all we had to sell;
Some just came to shake my daddy’s hand.
Yeah the model A was loaded down and California bound,
And a change of luck was just four days away.
But the only change that I remember seeing for my daddy
Was when his dark hair turned to silver grey.
California cottonfields,
Where labor camps were filled with worried men with broken dreams.
California cottonfields,
As close to wealth as daddy ever came.
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Braves travel to-do list: Score a run, then perhaps win
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Los Angeles — Well, that Monday night shutout wasn’t quite what the Braves had in mind to start this crucial six-game trip, now was it?
At least it was quick and relatively painless for Braves hitters, Hiroki Kuroda carving them up with a surgeon’s precision.
For those counting at home, that’s two road games in a row with zero runs for Los Bravos. Eighteen innings, six hits, no runs at Toronto and at Dodger Stadium. Ouch. Yikes.
With six outs to go in last night’s 3-0 Dodgers win against the skidding Bravos, I was scrambling to gather information about no-hitters — how many the Dodgers had thrown over the years, how many had been thrown against the Braves, etc.
I covered Randy Johnson’s perfect game in Atlanta in 2004, and with six outs to go last night I really was starting to think I was going to see Kuroda throw one, too. If he had, he’d have joined the immortal Sandy Koufax as the only pitchers in Dodgers franchise history to toss one (a perfect game, not just a no-hitter).
It’s four no-hitters I’ve covered as a beat man, including two on the West Coast by Marlins pitchers A.J. Burnett (at San Diego’s former Jack Murphy Stadium, A.J. threw a nine-walk, one-hit-batsman beautiful mess) and Kevin Brown (at San Francisco’s Candlestick Park, the surling Georgia boy completely dominated one afternoon).
Alas, Mark Teixeira lightened our late-night workload Monday with his clean double leading off the eighth inning.
But it didn’t make Kuroda’s performance any less impressive, really. He needed only 91 pitches (61 strikes) to record 27 outs, with no walks and six strikeouts.
Braves hitters and Bobby Cox called it as good or better than any performance they’ve seen all season, and Brian McCann said the Braves, who didn’t get to their L.A. hotel until nearly 3 a.m. Monday after their marathon 17-inning game Sunday in Atlanta, couldn’t have hit Kuroda Monday even if fully rested.
He was that good. Everything down in the strike zone. Sinkers at over 90 mph. Ninth-inning fastballs at 93-94 mph, harder than he’d thrown for most of the night. Dodgers manager Joe Torre said he’d never seen a pitcher so “robotically” pump strike after strike against hitters.
And these were well-located strikes, not ones left over the middle of the plate.
Kelly Johnson marveled at how much better Kuroda - he’s only got a 5-6 record, folks — pitched last night than when the Braves faced him in spring training or when they got seven hits and two runs in six innings against him to beat the 33-year-old rookie in Atlanta on April 20.
“It was his night,” K.J. said of the performance Monday. “We saw him in the spring and early this year, and he wasn’t even close to that same pitcher. I don’t know where he was hiding that stuff.”
OK, but enough about Kuroda. What in the name of Otis Nixon is wrong with the Braves?
Ahh, if only there were an easy, pat answer, something the Braves and GM Frank Wren could fix with one move, or a couple of trades before the deadline.
A move to get a bat, preferably a right-handed bat, would certainly help the cause, because this Braves team has been shut out eight times and has a 1-25 record in games in which it’s scored two runs or fewer.
That’s 26 times in 90 games that Atlanta has scored fewer than three runs in a game. And on the road oh, it’s much uglier.
Ninety games in, the home-road dichotomy isn’t as severe as it was earlier, but that’s only because the Braves have stopped winning so much at home. In other words, they’re not as good at home; they’re still about as bad as ever on the road, and much of that is the strange inability to hit on the road.
This is a team that plays its home games in a park that’s more pitcher-friendly than hitter-friendly, for sure. Those vast power alleys at Turner Field, especially in right-center, have frustrated a lot of hitters over the years.
Yet this Braves team hits better at home. Far, far better.
Among NL teams in home-game offensive statistics, the Braves rank second in average (.283) and on-base percentage (.360), sixth in slugging percentage (.432), and eighth in homers (46).
But in road games, the Braves are awful offensively (or awfully offensive) — 14th in average (.243), 11th in OBP (.318), 10th in slugging (.387), and tied for 11th in homers (39).
And here’s the big one: At home they are third in runs scored (237), while on the road the Braves are dead last with 157 runs.
Now, unless they can trade for the best road-hitting run-producer in the NL, the Braves are probably going to have to look in the mirror and get things figured out amongst themselves if they hope to get this road thing turned around before it’s too late (if it’s not already, as many here in Braves/MIB land believe it is).
No one has felt the sting of the Braves’ road futility more than Jorge Campillo, who pitched another good game last night — seven innings, five hits three runs — and came away with another loss.
He’s 1-4 with a 4.32 ERA in his past five starts, and the Braves have scored one or no runs while he’s been in four of those games.
He has three quality starts in that span, games in which he pitched seven or eight innings and gave up two or three runs, and Campillo has only a 1-2 record in those three games.
Both losses in that stretch came in Los Angeles, against the Angels and Dodgers, when he gave up a total of 12 hits and five runs in 15 innings, and got exactly zero support runs. In both games, the Tijuana native pitched with plenty of family members and friends in attendance.
They might be wondering if the Braves have something against their guy. No, friends and family members, they don’t. The Braves don’t score much for several pitchers, particularly on the road. It’s nothing personal.
At Turner Field, five Braves regulars (20 or more games) have hit .300 or higher, including Chipper Jones (.437), Brian McCann (.323), Matt Diaz (.319), Yunel Escobar (.316), and Kelly Johnson (.300).
On the road, Chipper Jones (.323) is the only Braves regular hitting above .287, and six are hitting .250 or below.
At home, eight Braves regulars have slugged over .400. On the four, it’s four.
Not too surprising, then, that the Braves have lost 23 of their past 31 road games, despite a respectable 3.92 ERA in that span. They hit just .236 in those 31 games, and averaged 3-1/2 runs.
And in their past seven road games, the Braves are 2-5 with a ghastly .200 batting average and only 23 runs. They’ve been shut out in consecutive road games, by A.J. Burnett and two Toronto relievers to end the last trip and by Kuroda to start this one.
Gotta love Carlyle: Buddy Carlyle’s opponents’ batting average has improved each month, from .292 in April to .167 in May, .152 in June, and .111 so far in three July appearances.
Since April 23, the journeyman right-hander has posted a 0.78 ERA and .165 opponents’ average in 14 games, allowing 13 hits and two runs in 23 innings, with 10 walks and 25 strikeouts.
He has a 1.38 ERA in 26 innings this season, a .178 opponents’ average that includes .153 by righty hitters, and he’s allowed just a .171 average with runners on and .152 (5-for-33) with runners in scoring position.
“Damn, we’re going to have to move him up [in the bullpen],” Bobby Cox said yesterday, when I asked about Carlyle’s recent work. “He’s going right after [hitters]. He puts the ball right where he wants it. I preach that all the time, but some people don’t get it. You’ve gotta locate.”
Carlyle told me yesterday that he likes his role, feels comfortable there, and hopes the starters begin going deeper into games again so he doesn’t have to pitch much, because then he knows the staff’s performing well. You know, when he doesn’t have to enter many games in the middle innings.
“I’m trying to make pitches where I’m putting everything into that particular pitch. Like [Sunday vs. Houston] when I was pitching, if I was going to give up a hit in a certain situation, I was going to put everything into the pitch,” he said.
“And if I gave up the hit or the run, I could go home and feel like, ‘OK, alright, I gave up the run there, but I gave it everything I had on that particular pitch.’ And it’s a lot easier to do that out of the bullpen than as a starter, because as a starter you’re looking at, you’ve got to throw 100 pitches, and sometimes you’ve got to conserve a little bit too much.
“I’m just trying to make sure I put everything into it, and if something bad happens I can live with it.”
More on his role and whether he would like to start again: “I feel comfortable where I am right now. The starters have been doing such a good job and they’ve been getting deep into games. That’s why for three weeks before last weekend I didn’t pitch at all, because guys have been doing such a good job.
“Hopefully they’ll continue pitching the way they are and that decision won’t even have to be made and it’ll be completely irrelevant. I feel comfortable with where I’m at and just glad that I have an opportunity to be here playing, and hopefully we can start winning.”
A man who knows his role. Appreciates it, relishes it. Good stuff.
OK, time for lunch. But first . Those of you who, for some unknown reason, feel compelled to remind us that college football season is just around the corner: We get it. Hey, most of us love college football. I know I do.
But let me know when musicians as cool as these sing an ode to that sport, much less name a group for it and put out a CD full of songs about it.
It’s The Baseball Project, Peter Buck and Steve Wynn are in it, and their first album’s in stores today. Here’s a link to their appearance on Letterman: http://youtube.com/watch?v=A2RNfhhlY-Y
I can’t help but think that if Warren Zevon were still with us, he might want to be part of that project. (By the way, I think our AJC.com entertainment section is posting a bunch of other info and links to the band today.)
”DESPERADOS UNDER THE EAVES” by Warren Zevon
I was sitting in the Hollywood Hawaiian Hotel
I was staring in my empty coffee cup
I was thinking that the gypsy wasn’t lyin’
All the salty margaritas in Los Angeles
I’m gonna drink ‘em up
And if California slides into the ocean
Like the mystics and statistics say it will
I predict this motel will be standing until I pay my bill
Don’t the sun look angry through the trees
Don’t the trees look like crucified thieves
Don’t you feel like Desperados under the eaves
Heaven help the one who leaves
Still waking up in the mornings with shaking hands
And I’m trying to find a girl who understands me
But except in dreams you’re never really free
Don’t the sun look angry at me
I was sitting in the Hollywood Hawaiian Hotel
I was listening to the air conditioner hum
It went mmmmmm .
Look away…
Look away down Gower Avenue, look away….
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Braves (and Frenchy) start big week in SoCal
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Los Angeles — Good day from the City of Angels, denizens. And it appears there’s a couple of them by the pool 20 floors below (hey, it’s L.A., couldn’t resist a bad line .)
OK, let’s get to work.
I’m well rested, unlike Carroll, who happened to cover a home series when it all hit the fan, beginning with her early morning wakeup call about Francoeur and finishing 60-some hours later with a 17-innning, rain-delayed epic.
Then as I’m writing this out here this morning, she gets a call and breaks the news that Jeff Francoeur has already been recalled and will join the Braves here in L.A.
It’ll be Francoeur, Brent Lillibridge and my old buddy Vladimir Nunez (knew the Cuban reliever when he was with the Marlins) joining the Braves in place of the DL’d trio of Omar Infante, Jeff Bennett and Manny Acosta (with only six games until the break, Braves obviously believe they can get through with one less pitcher than they were carrying).
A tip of the cap (like the Braves, who’ve done a lot of proverbial cap-tipping lately) to Ms. Rogers, and to former Braves beat man and noted wordsmith Tom Stinson for his contributions to the Francoeur Chronicles. Well done, both of you.
(Frankly, I wasn’t even missed, which is never a good feeling; with the state of the economy, you want to always feel missed when you’re away, know what I mean?)
Anyway, let’s get to it. Oh, and can you imagine how the Braves would’ve felt flying cross-country last night had they lost that game yesterday? Potentially very big win going forward towards the All-Star break.
I say potentially, because if they don’t build on that win during this six-game trip, if they come out and fall on their faces againt the Dodgers and Padres this week, then that 17-inning win will quickly be forgotten.
But if the Braves can put a good trip before the break, they might look back at that Sunday marathon as a game when their fortunes changed. We’ll see. Obviously a lot must happen for them to accomplish that.
Fact of the matter is, however, that the Braves are still “just” six games back despite everything. I mean, it hardly seems possible given the disappointments, injuries, etc., but the Braves are are a game closer to their division leader than Detroit is to its own division leader.
And here’s the really hard-to-believe one: Braves are only one game further back than the Boston Red Sox are behind AL East leader Tampa Bay (and how ‘bout the Yankees, who are nine games out of first and only two games ahead of Baltimore. That’s a whole lot of cash spent for third or fourth place.)
Of course, the Red Sox would have the AL wild card lead, while the Braves are behind four other NL teams if you were to put together NL wild-card standings today. But it’s nonetheless a reminder that so much of your own team’s fate is tied to its division opponents, which can be such a fickle thing year to year.
Recent case in point: The Cardinals wouldn’t have won the World Series in 2006 if they’d played in a tougher division, because they wouldn’t have made the playoffs with an 83-78 record.
But back to these Braves, who truly must be a maddening, frustrating teams for you folks to watch. Again and again they go through a stretch or a series where they look dead in the water, where fans must be thinking, “OK, at least now we can think about next year and be sellers at the deadline.”
Then they win a series and the Phillies lose a series, and we’re right back at 5-7 games back and not even to the All-Star break yet.
But the Braves haven’t had as much as a three-game winning streak since May 22, and only once in that stretch have they won back-to-back road games, in the Angels series down I-5 from where we are now.
The Braves went 21-12 with a .295 average and .305 ERA from April 17 to May 22, including a five-game winning streak to end that run. Since then they are 16-26 with a .245 average and 4.15 ERA.
And in their past 20 road games, they are 6-14 with a .237 average and only 74 runs scored.
So it’s time. This is it. The most important road trip to date (and we’ve only said that, what, four times this season?)
Oh, well, at least we’ll only be able to say “We’re not even at the All-Star break yet” for one more week, right?
I think the Braves still have a chance - not saying a good one, but a legitimate chance - to win the division only because it’s such a parity-ridden division, and a parity league, for that matter.
Just look at the NL standings today, for example. There are only two teams, the Dodgers and Reds, who are better than 6-4 in their last 10 games, and both of them are 7-3.
The only three NL teams with as high as a .550 winning percentage are all in the NL Central. Every team in the West has a losing record, and six teams in the other two divisions are below .500.
In the AL, there are two teams that are 8-2 in their past 10 games, and Tampa Bay is 9-1 in its past 10. There are five teams with .550 winning percentages or higher, three at .580 or higher, and two above .600, the Rays (55-32) and Angels (53-35).
All that being said, for the Braves to make a run at the division title they’re going to have to start putting together more than two wins here and one there. This is a team that can’t put together a sustained run, the kind that might make you feel good about their chances and believe they actually have some hope other than the rest of the division turning over and handing it to them.
Charlie is inexperienced: Those of you who believed Charlie Morton was a salve who’d fill in for a veteran starter without any slippage, really must not have given much credence to his minor league career at all.
As was pointed out here several times, this is a young kid who only started figuring things out last August, who hasn’t even had a solid half-season in his professional baseball career yet, much less a full season.
So to anticipate that he wouldn’t get lit up occasionally, maybe even frequently, in his first tour of the big leagues wasn’t realistic. It’s the rule, not the exception - top young pitching prospects are going to struggle in their first year in the big leagues.
Jurrjens, he’s the exception, not the rule.
The important thing is, Charlie is very talented, and now he believes it.
If they’d called him up earlier, say after his first few great minor league starts this season, then getting knocked around in the majors might have been hard on his psyche. But from talking to him, I think Charlie’s past that point of doubting himself now, of questioning whether he’s worthy of all the praise.
Dodgers on a roll: Not the best time to be getting the the Dodgers, who’ve won five of six in July, all on the road. They started the month with wins in the last three games of a four-game series at Houston, then took two of three at San Francisco.
It’s worth noting that the Braves have won five straight games against the Dodgers since July 4, 2007, including their last two at Dodger Stadium in that series and a three-game sweep this April in Atlanta. The Braves posted a 2.20 ERA in that April 18-20 series.
The Dodgers are playing much better now and getting good pitching despite the absence of injured Brad Penny.
Andruw not on a roll: The same can’t be said for Andruw Jones, whose first year away from Atlanta has been pretty much a complete nightmare.
He’s hitting .161 with two homers, eight RBI and 50 strikeouts in 143 at-bats, and just got back from a six-week stint on the DL for arthroscopic knee surgery for torn cartilage. He has a .262 OBP and .259 slugging percentage.
With runners on base, the ex-Braves CF has hit .062 (4-for-65) with 27 strikeouts and an .062 slugging percentage.
With runners in scoring position, he’s a majors-worst 1-for-38 (.026).
He had a homer and two walks in a April 19 game at Turner Field. Since then, Jones is 13-for-88 (.148) with one homer and 32 strikeouts. He’s 1-for-10 with five strikeouts since getting back from the DL.
His next homer at Dodger Stadium will be his first as a Dodger, which might partly explain why he’s booed at home, according to observers, louder than any athlete for any Los Angeles pro team in recent memory.
By the way, since the beginning of the 2007 season, Andruw has played exactly 200 games and hit .210 (150-for-715) with 33 doubles, 28 homers, 102 RBI and 188 strikeouts, with a .301 OBP and .382 slugging percentage.
Things really started to go south for him in mid-August 2006. He’s hit .214 in 245 games since Aug. 12, 2006, with 41 doubles, 40 homers, 132 RBI and 219 strikeouts in 866 at-bats, and a .317 OBP and .406 slugging percentage.
Andruw and Frenchy: In 2006, Andruw and Francoeur hit a combined .261 with 70 homers and 232 RBIs in 318 games. This season, they’ve hit a combined .170 with 10 homers and 49 RBIs in 131 games.
Chipper and the batting title: I’m gonna make a bold prediction that Matt Holliday will be the only hitter to seriously challenge Chipper Jones for the NL batting title this season.
Holliday has hit .380 (46-for-121) with seven homers and 27 RBIs in his past 31 games, raising his azverage to .343, fourth in the league behind Hoss (.388), Pujols (.350) and Berkman (.349). No other qualifier is hitting as high as .325.
Chipper, by the way, is still hitting a jaw-droping .437 at home, a 64-point lead over the Cubs’ Kosuke Fukudome (.373). Holliday is next with his .368 at Coors Field and Berkman at .362 in Houston.
Should be noted, Turner Field’s the only pitcher-friendly park in that group.
Chipper’s also back leading the league in OPS at 1.125, ahead of Berkman (1.103) and Pujols (1.094).
And we haven’t updated the Chipper-since-June 2006 numbers recently, so let’s do it now:
He’s hit .361 with 72 doubles, seven triples, 66 homers and 203 RBI in 262 games since June 24, 2006, with a .449 OBP and .651 slugging percentag (yes, that’s a 1.100 OPS over 262 games).
And since returning from his last DL stint on June 13, 2007, he’s hit .369 (233-for-631) with 42 doubles, four triples, 35 homers, 125 RBI, 110 walks, 82 strikeouts and a .460 OBP in 169 games.
The Braves are 87-82 in that stretch when Chipper plays, and 4-13 when he doesn’t.
OK a diversion or two: The Tom Waits show at the Fox on Saturday was even greater than his performance at Tabernacle a couple years ago. The man is simply one of the most entertaining performers in the world today, and his band was top-notch across the board. Just sublime stuff, seeing him play. Tix ain’t cheap, but he’s one who’s worth every penny of whatever it costs to see him .
Saw two good movies this week. Well, one terrific one (Gonzo: The Life and Work of Dr. Hunter S. Thompson and one very entertaining big summer movie, Hancock. I was surprised how much I liked the latter. And though I figured I’d like the Thompson documentary, I had no idea it’d be as great as it was. It’s by the same director who did the doc No End In Sight last year.
Any fan of Hunter must see it. Run, don’t walk. Better yet, drive.
And finlly, I’ve got to recommend this relatively unknown singer-songwriter, Chuck Brodsky. If you can find his CDs, do yourself a favor and buy one or more. This guy’s a rootsy, no-B.S. songwriter who also happens to be a big baseball fan and has written several tunes that are about as good as you’ll ever hear about the subject.
Here’s one I love, about a famous (or infamous) no-hitter that Doc Ellis threw for the Pittsburgh Pirates in San Diego, on a day that began with him in L.A. believing that it was an off day and doing something he would’ve never, ever done on a day he thought he was pitching (if you’re not familiar with the story, Google it; this really happened).
”DOC ELLIS’ NO-NO” by Chuck Brodsky
It was a lovely summer’s morning
An off-day in LA
So thought one Doc Ellis
As he would later say
His girlfriend read the paper
She said, “Doc, this can’t be right…
It says here that you’re pitching
In San Diego tonight”
“Got to get you to the airport”
And so off Doc Ellis flew
His legs were a little bit wobbly
And the rest of him was too
Took a taxi to the ballpark
An hour before the game
Gave some half-assed explanation
Found the locker with his name
Time came to go on out there
Down the corridor
The walls were a little bit wavy
There were ripples in the floor
He went out to the bullpen
To do a bunch of stretches
Loosen up a little
Throw his warm-up pitches
All rose for the national anthem
People took off their hats
Fireworks were exploding
The cokes were already going flat
Doc was back there in the dugout
So many things to watch
Some players spit tobacco juice
Others grabbed their crotch
The umpire hollered, “Play Ball!”
And so it came to be
Doc’s Pirates batted first
And when they went down 1-2-3
Doc’s catcher put his mask on
And he handed Doc the ball
It was 327 feet
To the right & left field walls
The Pirates took the field then
And Doc stood on the rubber
He bounced a couple of pitches
And then he bounced a couple others
You might say about that day
He looked a little wild
The leadoff batter trembled
Nobody knew why Doc Ellis smiled
You walk eight and you hit a guy
The things that people shout…
Especially your manager
But he didn’t take Doc out
Doc found himself a rythym
And a crazy little spin
Amazing things would happen
When Doc Ellis zeroed in
Sometimes he saw the catcher
Sometimes he did not
Sometimes he held a beach ball
Other times it was a dot
Dock was tossing comets
That were leaving trails of glitter
At the 7th inning stretch
He still had a no-hitter
So he turned to Cash, his buddy
Said, “I got a no-no going”
Speaking the unspeakable
He went back out there throwing
Bottom of the ninth
And he stood high upon the mound
Three more outs to go
He’d have his name in Cooperstown
First up was Cannizzaro
Who flied out to Alou
Kelly grounded out for Dean
The shortstop yelled, “That’s two”
It must’ve been a mad house
The fans up on their feet
The littler ones among them
Standing on their seats
Next up would’ve been Herbel
But Spezio pinch-hit
He took a 3rd strike looking
And officially, that was it
It was a lovely summer’s morning
An off-day in LA
So thought one Doc Ellis
As he would later say
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Soriano throwing and other thoughts
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Good day, denizens. I’d written most of this blog before I went down to the clubhouse this morning and you’ll see the stuff below, but before we get to that I wanted to give an update from the clubhouse.
Rafael Soriano threw a bullpen for Roger McDowell this morning, threw for about 10 minutes and must have felt pretty good. (He looked nice and easy from the bullpen TV in the dugout, where Bobby was watching and said he looked “real good.”)
Roger said afterward: “He told me he was 80 percent.”
Asked if that was encouraging, he said: “Yes it’s really encouraging. Hopefully we can get the other 20 percent back and he can help us.”
Soriano had spoken to us briefly before he threw, seemed in good spirits saying hello again to his teammates. He said he still felt his elbow “a little bit” when he threw in Florida but maybe he’s come to the realization that he’s just going to feel it and will try to work through that.
Soriano didn’t want to say anything until further until after he met with Bobby Cox and Frank Wren after his side session to figure out what he’ll do next, so that’s all I’ve got for now. But I’ll keep you updated.
Also, Lance Berkman has a swollen left eye - they think it might be pink eye - so he’s scratched from the lineup. Miguel Tejada has the day off. I was in the clubhouse when word came to Charlie Morton, who at the time was going over hitters with Smoltz. That should be a nice break for him not to have a triple crowd kinda guy in there today.
The Braves lineup looks like so:
Blanco LF Escobar SS Jones 3B Tex 1B Infante LF Prado 2B Norton RF Miller C Morton P
Before you get to buzzing about the lineup, read a little more: some leftover thoughts from last night.
On Friday, when Frank Wren was talking about sending Jeff Francoeur down and all that it entailed, he was addressing a question I had about the timing of it and the fact that the Phillies had just left town after a sweep and the Braves were sinking in the standings. In his answer, he let us in on this little nugget.
“We’re to a point now where when you’re seven games back,” Wren said. “Bobby and I talked heading into the weekend. We wanted to be five games or less going into the break.”
And then he went on to explain that that’s not to say he didn’t think the Braves couldn’t go on a winning streak and cut into the Phillies lead more than that, yadda yadda. But it was a realistic-sounding goal to me and not one of those quotes we’ve been hearing lately like “If we can just have a 5-1 homestand” which Francoeur said coming off a road trip a couple of weeks back, or like Kelly Johnson said the other night “it’d be nice to finish out the first half 7-3.”
Well, yeah, the Braves haven’t had a stretch like that all season (ok, ok, two five-game winning streaks, but those just don’t pop up out of nowhere) why would they have it now?
And then last night after following up a nice win Friday night, with a dud of a game against the Astros, Brian McCann was talking about the new focus guys in the clubhouse were talking about, and that’s taking it three games at a time, trying to win a series.
Well, yes. It’s interesting to me that that’s a new thought. Isn’t that always how the Braves tried to approach it? Win the series, win the next series, and by the end of the season, you’ve won the division? When did they start getting ahead of themselves?
Granted, it’s not as easy as it used to be to actually do it. And I’m not going to get caught up in the hyperbole either. After splitting the first two games vs. the Astros the Braves are still seven back and they’ve got seven games to do something about it.
You’d like to think they could take two out of three from the Astros when they don’t have to face Roy Oswalt, and I’d guess Charlie Morton will be back on his game today. And you’d think that the Braves are about to head off on a road trip where they’ve got a great chance to make up some ground. They’re going out to the lowly NL West for the Dodgers and Padres. The Padres had lost 14 out of 16 games until beating Arizona the first two games of their series this weekend.
The Dodgers have won four out of five heading into today’s game against the Giants, though. They got Andruw Jones back, such as he is. He struck out four times in his first game back Friday night. Followed it up with an 0-for-4 on Saturday.
So no, I’m not going out on any limbs and predicting a 5-1 trip. All I know is that it’s pivotal. The Braves find a way to get within five games and in the hunt by the All-Star break and they should be buying as usual at the trading deadline. They bungle this road trip, drop even lower, and then is it time to completely regroup - trade Mark Teixeira as many are calling for?
In my mind, the Braves can’t wait for Mike Hampton to get back, Tom Glavine to start throwing, Matt Diaz to return from his knee injury and Francoeur to get his swing back to figure all this out. These players they have now, to me, are going to determine this fate. And these next seven games are going to show the way.
And you know I can’t write about the Padres without mentioning Maddux. Looks like the Braves will actually catch him this time. He goes on Monday in Florida. With an off day Thursday his spot would fall again on Sunday.
He’s faced the Braves three times since he left here, going 1-1 with a 6.23 ERA. The last time was last July 8 at Petco Park when Maddux gave up five runs in five innings, including homers to Brian McCann and Kelly Johnson. Kyle Davies beat him that day. The last time at Turner Field on May 9 of last year when he faced Smoltz and came away with a no-decision allowing one run on three hits in 5 1/3 innings and of course, singled off his buddy.
The Braves should be getting Jake Peavy on Friday, which is less nostalgic but more important - OK I admit it.
As for today? All-Star announcements coming at 2 p.m. McFann are you feeling it? I have to think people are thinking straight and Brian McCann gets in. He’s a guy who seems to have earned the respect of his peers in a short amount of time, so if nothing else, the player ballot is going to help do for him what Cubs fans are trying to blow - his third straight All-Star appearance.
I think Jurrjens is a long shot. It would be a nice story - first Braves rookie pitcher to make the All-Star team since Ron Reed in 1968 - but I’m thinking he needed one more good win to solidify this roll he’s on.
Chipper gets in for the first time since 2001. Bout time.
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Francoeur headed to minors
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Well, it’s here. Jeff Francoeur found out last night he’s being sent to AA Mississippi to try to work out his problems with his old hitting coach and now AA manager Phillip Wellman.
Something had to give and it finally did.
He’s been doing everything you’re supposed to do - extra work in the cage, trying to stay positive and work through it. I saw him on the field Tuesday hitting early by himself, in a personal tutoring session with hitting coach Terry Pendleton, working on hitting balls up the middle and to right field.
But nothing seemed to change in his results and you just had to feel for the guy.
Now this. This is one way the Braves probably figure that Jeff can work on some adjustments he’s making in his swing without trying to implement them on the fly. At one point Tuesday night, I think, he was putting his bat on his shoulder. And he’s also back to standing up taller.
The Braves probably also figure this is a way to keep him out of the spotlight, away from the daily questions and pressures of being a major league hitter in a big-time slump.
The other option was to give him a couple of days off. Giving him one game off seemed to work well on that doubleheader day against the Mets. Maybe that would have helped him. But with the Braves sinking in the standings by the day, they chose to go bolder.
Some things have been said about the delicate line the Braves might be walking with their fans in a move like this. But I’d say the bigger question is what will this do to the psyche of a player like Jeff Francoeur, who is a local guy, grew up in the heart of Braves territory, beloved….and lately booed. This has got to be tearing him up. How will this move affect his confidence - to go back to the minors where he hasn’t been in three years?
That is a bigger question to me than whether a fan wearing a Francoeur T-shirt to the game tonight will get to see him in right field.
But enough of what I think. Now that it’s here, let’s hear what you think. Was this the right move to make?
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Time for Braves to demote “The Chosen One”?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
I’d like to start this by saying we all need to take a deep breath, relax just a bit before tonight’s big pitching matchup, and consider the words of the great Tom Waits, who I am going to see at the Fox Theatre on Saturday night before flying to Los Angeles to continue coverage of this strange season.
From an internet interview not long ago, Waits when asked what’s heaven for him, replied: “Me and my wife on Route 66 with a pot of coffee, a cheap guitar, pawnshop tape recorder in a Motel 6, and a car that runs good parked right by the door.”
OK, now let’s get back to The Francoeur Thing.
No, but seriously, it does say a lot about how this guy’s captivated the local fan base, the media, and blog denizens in far-flung corners of Braves Nation that we’ve spent so many hours examining Frenchy’s Great Decline of ’08, doesn’t it?
Well, that plus it says a lot about how a young hometown player who’s featured so prominently in team marketing can also stay in a lineup a lot longer, not to mention keep his spot on the major league roster longer, than a similarly performing obscure player could be expected to survive in the same circumstances.
Then again, consider the options the Braves had for right field while Mark Kotsay and Matt Diaz were on the DL the past five weeks of so. The Great Decline had not quite reached the epic proportions it has reached in the last week or two, and the Braves certainly weren’t going to run out an outfield on a regular basis that included Brandon Jones, Gregor Blanco and Greg Norton (even Omar Infante was hurt and unavailable most of the past week).
But things could get interesting. With Kotsay back from the DL, and Diaz expected back in a week or so, the Braves will have a difficult decision to make (not difficult in the eyes of most of you and us in the pressbox, but difficult for team officials because of what I said above, about the marketing and all the little kiddies running around in their No. 7 jerseys in the stands, all that).
On the one hand, they risk possible backlash for sending to the minors a kid they’ve built their “brand” around, their advertising, all that (hey, stop howling, I’m just giving you the facts as I understand them).
But on the other hand, they risk what, to me, is far worse backlash — from fans who want to, and need to, think their team puts winning first, and doesn’t show favoritism or make seemingly illogical decisions when it comes to personnel, choosing to sit or send down, say, Gregor Blanco instead of Francoeur, since Francoeur is not out of minor league options, needs a lot of work to get his swing and confidence back, and isn’t doing much at all to help the team win.
On the contrary, Francoeur’s slump has reached epic proportions and become a distraction, the center of too much attention. How can the kid possibly get straightened out in this environment, when he and his teammates are being asked about The Slump every day, every night, on radio, on TV, in the clubhouse.
And when the fans at Turner Field have begun booing him after every failed at-bat, louder than ever last night as he went 0-for-4 with three strikeouts and grounded into a double play with bases loaded. How is he going to snap out of this funk with this chaos and inquisition that’s building around him?
Here are the numbers. Warning, this is not for those with sensitive stomachs:
Francoeur is hitting .236 with 19 doubles, eight homers, 41 RBI, 20 walks, 62 strikeouts, a .291 OBP and .379 slugging percentage - and those are the relatively good numbers, the overall numbers.
Then we get into the nastier stuff. He’s hit .215 against lefties (keep in mind, he’s a right-handed hitter).
He’s hitting .202 (20-for-99) with runners in scoring position, with 23 strikeouts and seven double plays grounded into (a year ago today, Francoeur was hitting .344 with RISP in almost the exact same number of at-bats).
He’s hitting .200 (10-for-50) in the late innings of close games.
He’s 2-for-20 with the bases loaded, which is almost unimaginable. In half of those at-bats, he’s either struck out or grounded into a double play.
For those who think he’s better off taking the first pitch, well, I know where you’re coming from. But it ain’t so, not with Francoeur, at least not statistically.
After getting behind 0-1 in counts, he’s hit .226 in 177 at-bats. After being ahead 1-0, he’s hit .214 in 98 at-bats.
And with two strikes? Oh, you don’t want to know (.158, 24-for-152 with 62 strikeouts and six walks).
In 55 night games, he’s hit .203 with three homers and a .250 OBP.
Now, the deepening slump: He’s hit .211 (48-for-228) with five homers and 53 strikeouts in 59 games since April 29. At Turner Field during that period, he’s hit .205 with three homers, 12 RBIs and 31 strikeouts in 31 games.
Since June 3, Francoeur has hit .194 (20-for-103) with one homer and seven RBis in 27 games, with 25 strikeouts, a .245 OBP and .262 slugging percentage. That’s a .507 OPS in his past 27 games.
And in his past 14 games, Francoeur is 6-for-48 (.125) with no extra-base hits, one RBI and 16 strikeouts with three walks.
So unless he has a big turnaround in the next week, would the Braves really keep him in the lineup, or even on the roster, if it meant having to send down another outfielder?
Blanco has hit .338 with eight RBI and a .400 OBP in his past 18 games, including 13-for-25 (.520) with three walks and two strikeouts during a current six-game hitting streak.
Might the Braves consider moving Kotsay to right fielder, Blanco to center, and Diaz in left? Josh Anderson or Brandon Jones could be a fourth outfielder if they want Francoeur to go to Richmond and work on the changes that he’s working on now in the batting cage with hitting coach Terry Pendleton.
T.P. told me last night that they’re at the point now of breaking down Francoeur’s swing, getting him to do some entirely different things than he’s done in the past, and that this is stuff he has to get comfortable with outside of the games, not try to do while he’s up there facing major league pitchers.
Chipper had this to say about Francoeur’s situation and what he’d say to him or is saying to him:
“Keep your chin up. Keep coming to work, keep working hard. It’s a tough time for him. He’s never struggled up to this point [of his life], ever. He’s always been The Chosen One, as we like to call him. But this game will humble you.
“I’d like to see a little more of the enthusiasm he showed earlier in his career. He’s really down on himself right now, and I think it will help him come out of it a little quicker if he doesn’t take the game as seriously as he is.”
OK, gotta get to the ballpark. First, a tune. Oh, and ask me about Kotsay’s scouting report on Hanson later. It’s not a long one, but he did talk about him. I don’t have time to find the quotes right now, but will later.
”WE’RE JUST FRIENDS” by Jeff Tweedy (Wilco)
Over and over and over again
You say that we’re just friends
Forget the implications
Infatuations end
If love’s so easy, why’s it hard
I can’t imagine ever being apart
I’ll come back to you
It’d be brand new
But I promise
We’re just friends
Over and over and over again
I try to make amends
For everything that I’ve done wrong
My whole world just spins
Make some coffee, hold me up
Try to talk me out of giving up
I’ll come back to you
It’ll be brand new
But I promise
We’re just friends
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Braves struggling with ‘Torino and Phils
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
My daddy was a traveling salesman for John Morrell meats when I was a kid. He’d drive to grocers throughout eastern North Carolina, the way they did it back then. There were two things I remember most about his job.
The first was how he’d sit at the dining-room table, calling in orders to somewhere I imagined was far, far away, reciting phrases and codes, which always seemed to end with something like “Ottumwa 2-3-4-7.”
The other thing was the great new car he’d get every year, obviously always a solid, four-door American-made machine. The salesman’s perk.
When the Starsky & Hutch TV series came out, I thought it was the coolest thing in the world that my dad had driven the same car as those boys drove, and I only wished the company would’ve let him paint the white stripe down the side of his Ford Victorino.
Yes, daddy drove a Victorino. Several of them, in fact. And now I find myself writing about how a Victorino is killing the Braves. And I just find it ironic that what’s that? It was a Gran Torino that he drove? Oh.
Nevermind.
OK, folks, I went an awful long way for this blog lead-in, didn’t I? Hey, the way the Bravos are playing, got to use your imagination to prevent this daily chronicle from slipping into some sort of repetitive-stress disorder.
Anyway, Shane Gran Torino is quickly joining the list of Braves Nemeses (wouldn’t it be better if the plural of nemesis was nemesi? I think so.) A list that includes some obvious guys, like Torino’s teammate Ryan Howard, but is topped by the likes of Tony Clark and Shawn Green, guys who hit as well or better against the Braves than they did against any other teams.
Folks, Victorino had a homer and four RBI last night, giving him 25 career RBIs against the Braves, which is as many RBI as his totals against any two other teams
He’s got 125 total RBI, including 25 in 44 games against the Braves. His next-highest totals are 13 (in 46 games) against the Marlins and 12 (in 42 games) against the Mets. He also has a personal-best five homers against the Braves, which is more than one-fifth of his career total (23).
The Torino has hit .326 (43-for-132) with a .386 OBP and .515 slugging percentage against the Braves, for a .901 OPS. People, I’d like to remind you: This is Shane Freakin’ Victorino we’re talking about. A .901 OPS!
He’s a career .274 hitter with a .339 OBP and .400 slugging percentage (.739 OPS).
But against the Braves, he’s hit .377 (20-for-53) with three triples, four homers and 12 RBIs in his past 13 games, including two triples in the Kelly Johnson dropped pop-up game, when Victorino had a 10th-inning RBI triple and scored what proved to be the winning run.
Add him to the mix that includes Chase Utley, Howard and Pat Burrell, plus the occasional shutout by Cole Hamels and Kyle Kendrick’s unbeaten record against the Braves, and it’s not too difficult to see how the Phillies basically have assumed ownership of the Braves the past few years.
The Phils are 36-26 against the Braves since the beginning of the 2005 season, 13-5 against them since May 26, 2007, and 6-1 against the Braves this season, including a current five-game winning streak against them.
The Phillies have hit .311 and posted a 2.15 ERA while winning the last five against Atlanta, while the Braves have hit .226 with a 5.60 ERA in those games. The Braves have been outscored 29-11 in that 0-5 skid against Philly.
More disturbing: The Phillies have won seven of their last nine series at Turner Field, and the Braves need to win tonight and Wednesday to keep the Phillies from winning another.
Tonight is a very winnable game, with the Braves’ Jorge Campillo (3-2, 2.54 ERA) facing the Phillies’ Brett Adam Eaton (2-6, 4.86). Eaton is 3-3 with a 5.94 ERA in nine starts against the Braves, and 1-2 with a 9.15 ERA in four since 2007.
Chipper Jones is 6-for-12 with a homer against him, Kelly Johnson is 3-for-10 with two homer, Greg Norton is 5-for-7 with a homer, and Mark Teixeira is 3-for-5 with a homer.
But tomorrow night, that’s when things should get very interesting in a tasty pitching matchup of young aces, Philly’s Cole Hamels (8-5, 3.38) against the Braves’ Jair Jurrjens (8-3, 2.94.)
Jurrjens hasn’t faced Gran Torino and the Phillies, and has never lost a home game. Hamels is 4-0 with a 2.52 ERA in his past five starts against the Bravos, including a four-hit shutout on May 15 in his most recent game against them.
That should be fun. But for tonight, it’ll be up to the Campillo to swap paint with ‘Torino and Co.
By the way, they announced a late-innings substitution last night, and I heard “99 Taguchi,” and it reminded me that I’d like to buy a dirt bike for my nephew and I wonder if by brother would permit him to ride before he’s 16
Hitting with distractions: The distractions I’m referring to are baserunners, which are giving these Braves fits. Their own baserunners, that is.
The Braves are tied for the second-best average in the NL with no one on base, a .274 average, same as the Cardinals (the Cubs lead at .282).
But with a runner or runners on base, the Braves slip to seventh in the NL at .265. Meanwhile, the Cubs gain a point to .283, also the league leader).
And with runners in scoring position, the Braves slip yet again to .255, smack in the middle of the pack in the NL, ahead of only seven of the other 15 teams and 31 points behind the Cubs, who lead in this category, too, at .286.
Finally, in close-and-late situations, the Braves are ninth in the NL at .248, while the Cubs — surprise — lead the league at .276.
See a pattern? Cubs go from .282 with none on, to .283 with runners on, to .286 with runners in scoring position, and .276 (with 16 homers) in late-and-close situations.
Braves go from .274 with none on, to .265 with runners on, to .255 with runners in scoring position, and .248 (with eight homers) in late-and-close situations.
And the RISP average continues to slide with games like last night’s horrendous 1-for-15 performance by the Braves with runners in scoring position.
Young Charlie Morton pitched poorly last night and was gone without recording an out in the third inning. He gave up four runs in that inning, five altogether. But you gotta wonder, might the game have been a little different if the Braves hadn’t gone 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position during the first two innings?
By the way, the rest of the runs came off Blaine Boyer, and you think he might be dreading the next time he’s called on to face the Phils? He’s faced them four times this season and given 10 hits, eight runs (seven earned) and five walks with two strikeouts in three innings.
The Phillies have hit .556 against him this season.
OK, gotta get to the park. Another beautiful day to ride the (motor)bike to work, no rain in sight, humidity still relatively low.
”DANKO/MANUEL” by Jason Isbell (Drive-By Truckers)
Let the night air cool you off.
Tilt your head back and try to cough.
Don’t say nothing ‘bout the things you never saw.
Let the night air cool you off.
I ain’t living like I should.
A little rest might do me good.
Got to sinking in the place where I once stood.
Now I ain’t living like I should.
Can you hear that singing? Sounds like gold.
Maybe I can only hear it in my head.
Fifteen years ago we owned that road
now it’s rolling over us instead.
Richard Manuel is dead.
God forbid you call their bluff.
Like the nightmares ain’t enough.
Remember when we used to think that we were tough?
God forbid you call their bluff.
First they make you out to be
the only pirate on the sea.
Then they say Danko would have sounded just like me.
“Is that the man you want to be?”
Can you hear that song? It sounds like gold.
Maybe I could make it bigger overseas.
Fifteen years ago we owned this road
now it only gives us somewhere else to leave.
Something else you can’t believe.
Can you hear that singing? Sounds like gold.
Maybe I can hear poor Richard from the grave
singin’ where to reap and when to sow
when you’ve found another home you have to leave.
Something else you can’t believe.
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Phillies happy to see Braves, Turner Field
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Whenever the Phillies need a pick-me-up, they know where to go. Turner Field has been like a second home for them in recent years — without as many boos as they hear whenever things go sideways in Philadelphia.
The National League East leaders came in lugging cold bats, but the Phillies warmed up quickly with five runs in the first two innings against rookie Charlie Morton during an 8-3 series-opening win.
The fourth-place Braves went 1-for-15 with runners in scoring position and lost for the sixth time in seven games against the Phillies this season, falling to five games behind the division leaders.
“We got our butts beat tonight,” said third baseman Chipper Jones, who returned to the lineup after missing eight starts with a quadriceps injury. He went 1-for-3 with two walks as his majors-best average dropped a point to .393.
The Phillies had been 2-9 with a .191 batting average since June 17, but you’d have never known they way they hit Tuesday. They pounded out 14 hits including homers by Pat Burrell and Shane Victorino, who had four RBIs.
Morton (1-2) surrendered five runs and eight hits and was replaced after giving up six consecutive hits to start the third inning.
“Mort just wasn’t sharp tonight — at all,” Cox said of the hard-throwing right-hander, who had not allowed a homer in 98 innings this season - minor and major leagues — before giving up shots to Pat Burrell in the second inning and a two-run shot to Braves nemesis Shane Victorino in the third.
“It’s only his fourth start, and his first one that wasn’t good,” Cox said.
For the Phillies, it was their 19th win in 28 games at Turner Field, where they’ve won seven of their past nine series.
Morton said his arm lacked zip, but not because he’s already pitched as many innings as he did last season.
“That was as bad as my arm’s felt in a couple of years, in terms of life on the ball,” said the right-hander, who had one walk and one strikeout. “I don’t feel tired in any way. I just had no life whatsoever on my pitches.”
Braves have dropped eight of their past 12 at Turner Field since a 23-5 home surge that briefly gave them the best home record in baseball.
The Phillies have held onto first place in the NL East despite losing six consecutive series since their sweep of the Braves at Turner Field June 6-8.
“They’ve got a great lineup,” Cox said. “We know they were cold, but if you’re not sharp with your pitches, you’re going to give up runs against anybody.”
Victorino has become an unlikely Braves nemesis. Nine of his 22 RBIs this season are against the Braves, and two of his three homers. He’s hit .377 with three triples, four homers and 12 RBIs in his past 13 games against the Braves.
The Braves had chances early, but failed repeatedly.
They went 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position in the first two innings, and 0-for-11 before pinch-hitter Greg Norton’s two-run double in the seventh. That cut the lead to 5-2 and chased starter Kyle Kendrick (8-3) from the game.
The Braves got another run in the inning when second baseman Chase Utley bobbled Mark Teixeira’s bases-loaded grounder and had to settle for one out.
After the Utley mistake, lefty reliever J.C. Romero escaped further damage when Brian McCann grounded out. The Braves stranded at least one runner in scoring position in six of the first seven innings.
“Everybody was optimistic that we were going to come back,” Norton said. “We just didn’t push enough across, and they kept piling on.”
The Phillies added three runs in the ninth off Blaine Boyer to quash any lingering hopes of a Braves rally.
“We really need to get on that guy,” Johnson said of Kendrick, who is 3-0 in five starts against Atlanta. “We had a chance to score runs early and get an early lead, and we didn’t - again. It’s a little bit baffling.”
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Braves’ one-run record: historically awful
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
We’re expecting Chipper Jones to go on the 15-day disabled list this afternoon, which is obviously bad news for the Braves, who don’t win nearly as frequently without their best hitter in the lineup.
But with or without Chipper, this much we know: The Braves can’t do much worse in one-run games.
Terrible. Wretched. Inexplicable. Unfathomable.
We’ve used many adjectives to describe the Braves’ 4-21 record in one-run games, but here’s another we can add if this continues: Historic.
This we now know, after exhaustive research - and/or a hunch and a clue about using sortable stats - from loyal reader Adam Ganz, who sent me an e-mail that included a stunning bit of information.
Since 1901, major league ballclubs have played 2,212 team seasons (actually 2,182 plus 30 currently underway), and none of those teams have ever finished with as bad a winning percentage in one-run games as the Braves have today.
To repeat, not one team. Since the turn of the last century. No team has been this awful in one-run games.
That’s staggering, folks. There have been some very terrible 100-loss-and-more teams in that stretch, and none of them ever lost a higher percentage of its one-run games than this Braves team has lost so far.
Really, not many have been even close.
The Braves’ current winning percentage in one-run games is .160. They could seriously threaten the current “record,” if you want to call it that, of .184 by, coincidentally, the 1935 Boston Braves.
That Boston team went 7-31 in one-run games. Those Braves were 38-115. A 40-year-old Babe Ruth hit .181 for them in 28 games before hanging it up.
No other team since 1901 has even approached anything as low as a .200 winning percentage in one-run games. In fact, the 1937 St. Louis Browns (10-31, .244) were the only other team - out of nearly 2,000 in more than a century — to win fewer than a quarter of their one-run games. They were 46-108 overall.
The best winning percentages in one-run games belong to the 1981 Baltimore Orioles, who were 21-7 (.750) in one-run games and 59-46 overall in a strike-shortened season, and the 1908 Pittsburgh Pirates, who went 33-12 (.733) in one-run games and 98-56 overall.
In the past 50 years, the worst winning percentage in one-run games was .256 by the 1999 Kansas City Royals, who went 11-32 in those games. That was tied for third-worst on the list since 1901. Unlike those other two 1930s teams, the ’99 Royals weren’t a terrible team. They were 64-97 overall. OK, they were terrible.
They are tied for third on the dubious one-run list with Connie Mack’s 1916 Philadelphia Athletics, who, on the other hand, were godawful. That team was 11-32 in one run games, and 36-117 overall.
Of the modern era, the next-worst winning percentage after the ’99 Royals belonged to the 1975 Houston Astros, who were 16-41 (.281) in one-run games and 64-97 overall.
Do we sense a pattern here? The worst records in one-run games belong to really bad teams. Teams that lose close to 100 games, and in some cases many more.
And that’s what is so very unusual about this Braves team, which is 40-43 — not good, but not historically bad like the company it could join in one-run infamy.
They are 4-21 in one-run games, and 36-22 in all other games. You can look at it a couple of ways: They are due to win about eight of their next 10 one-run games and restore something approaching normalcy to their one-run record, or they are psychologically scarred at this point and expect to lose when games are tight late.
Or, of course, it could fall somewhere in the gray area between those two extremes. But gray areas aren’t big in blog discussions, much like the black-and-white world of talk radio.
However you want to look at it, the Braves are more than halfway through the season, and they are on pace to do something no team has ever done, finish with a winning percentage below .180 in one-run games.
Will they do that? Probably not. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they went, say, 10-10 the rest of the way in one-run games. But even that would make them just 14-31 and leave them with about the 30th worst winning percentage of 2,212 teams since 1901.
That’s how bad they are right now in the closest games, folks. That’s the hole they’ve dug for themselves in that category, and it’s disturbing for the Braves. I mean, if they were a mere 12-13 in one-run games, they’d be 48-35 and leading the NL East by four games.
That’s stunning, isn’t it?
Obviously the injuries to closer Rafael Soriano and setup man Peter Moylan played a part in the Braves’ struggles in one-run games, as they tried almost any and everyone in save situations for the first two months.
But they’ve also had several key hitters struggle mightily in clutch situations, including Jeff Francoeur with runners in scoring position, Yunel Escobar in late-and-close situations, etc. For most of the first six weeks, Mark Teixeira struggled to produce critical hits.
It’s a combination of things, and it played into the team psyche, I believe.
I’ve said since those first few weeks of the season, when you lose so many one-run games early, young players (and perhaps some veterans, too) start to believe their team’s cursed or they wonder when something bad’s going to happen. They play not to lose, instead of being aggressive and playing to win.
The Braves need a surge in one-run games, to push away this black cloud. Otherwise they’re going to keep getting questions about their one-run struggles, including the remarkable major league record they’ve set of 23 (and counting) consecutive one-run road losses dating to last August.
This is not stuff that playoff teams are asked about. This is stuff that really bad teams have to deal with.
Until the Braves get rid of that stigma, that stain, it can only serve to undermine whatever chances they have of putting together a second-half run and overtaking the four teams ahead of them in the NL East standings.
Right now, they’ve got 2,211 teams ahead of them in the one-run record standings since 1901, and not a single team behind them.
By the way, here’s a link to the one-run records.
And here’s a link to a study/story that Bill James wrote about performance in one-run games for Diamond Mind Baseball about six years ago, including a section about Bobby Cox near the bottom of the story.
But enough discussion of woes, for now. We need a tune by a master to finish this off.
If you haven’t heard Alejandro Escovedo’s new album Real Animal, it’s terrific, including a duet with Bruce Springsteen called “Always a Friend.” In fact, I think I’ll have the The Rude Awakening fellas play that tomorrow on our Wednesday morning spot on 680 The Fan (they ask me for a song to play as an intro or whatever, which is pretty cool of them).
This song isn’t on it. Or by him. But it’s great.
”OFF AND RUNNING” by James McMurtry
Answer me when I call to you
What became of the life I knew
Tell me why I can’t be free
Tell me what you expect of me
I’m so down about it
I can’t sleep at night
I sit watching the bugs
As they bounce off the light
Answer me when I’m calling out
Tell me what’s all the noise about
Explain to me the rules of love
Tell me just what I’m guilty of
I somehow I must’ve missed it
I never knew I was blind
Repeat it real slow
So I get it this time
I’m off and running to take what’s mine
I’m off and running again
I ‘m off and running
To take what’s mine
I’m off and running
And I won’t get caught this time
With my soul on empty
And my face to the wind
I’m off and running
I’m off and running again
Answer me when I call your name
What’d you do with my ball and chain?
I’m out here in the open air
And I can’t find it anywhere
And I’m so lost without it
It was such a part of me
I guess I’ll get along
How hard can it be?

