AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2008 > July > 30
Wednesday, July 30, 2008
Hard times at Turner Field
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
A few thoughts before heading back out to the salvage yard, er, Turner Field for the resumption of spill cleanup coverage after the Mark Teixeira-for-Casey Kotchman trade.
But seriously, you should prepare for another trade, one that will ship out funny man left-hander Will Ohman, who is likely to be dealt today or tomorrow (which is unfortunate for us all, because we don’t get nearly enough irreverent humor and Big Lebowski references from players, and, oh yeah, the Braves need to retain a rubber-armed reliever who can get outs against lefties or righties).
With the going rate for setup men having soared through the roof with recent deals for the likes of Dan Wheeler (three years, $10.5 mill) and lefty Ron Mahay (two years, $8 mill), and the Braves already set to pay closer/setup men Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez about $9-10 mill combined for next season, I don’t think they’re even considering the possibility of retaining Ohman and trying to sign him to the kind of multi-year deal he’ll get offered by plenty of clubs.
When I asked him yesterday if he’d heard anything, Ohman said, “That’s a negative, Ghostrider.” (A reference from the cheesefest movie Top Gun; Ohman’s pop-culture references are countless.)
It’s the first time the 30-year-old pitcher has faced this scenario, the likelihood of getting traded at the non-waiver deadline, of being wanted by other contending teams enough to be the center of a possible deadline deal. When the Cubs traded him to the Braves last winter along with Omar Infante in a deal for reliever Jose Ascanio, Ohman had worn out his welcome in Chicago, where he struggled at Wrigley Field and his outgoing personality worked against him.
With the Braves he’s performed and been a team-first guy from the outset, never complaining about anything including how frequently he was used during some brutal stretches when the bullpen was depleted (conversely, whenever asked he’d say he wanted the ball whenever they’d give it to him, and relished having so much responsibility placed upon him by Bobby Cox, who used him in lot of critical situations with games on the line when closers were hurt).
He’s 3-0 with a 2.48 ERA in 55 appearances, fourth-most in the majors. His .200 opponents’ average includes a .160 with a .218 OBP by left-handed hitters. His .194 OA with with runners in scoring position ranks second on the team (minimum 20 at-bats) to John Smoltz’s .179.
And in close-and-late situations, opponents have hit just .102 (5-for-49) with a .170 OBP and .143 slugging percentage against Ohman.
He’s been the Braves’ best reliever, and he’s probably about to follow their RBI leader (Teixeira) out the door. Like Teixeira, Ohman said he’d like to stay.
“Whatever the outcome ends up being, it’s going to be a positive on my end,” Ohman said. “But the thought of having to leave is bittersweet. If I do leave, I’ll have a chance to go to a contender.
“But this is a great organization. Everyone here has treated me well. My family’s enjoyed it down here. The chance to play for Bobby Cox has been a blessing. He’s been awesome. Working with Roger [McDowell], Eddie [Perez], the entire coaching staff.”
After his experience with the Cubs, Ohman has experienced a rejuvenation of sorts in Atlanta, despite the team’s disappointing season.
“On a personal level, it’s been cathartic,” he said. “The bonus is that if I stay [beyond the non-waiver trade deadline Thursday], then we could assume something along the lines of, they [Braves] want to keep me [beyond this season].
“Being as I’ve enjoyed it so much here, that’s not a bad thing. To stay wouldn’t be a negative, in the least.”
Your new first baseman… By now you’ve read plenty of analysis and some conflicting views of how the Braves did in the trade for Kotchman. Given that whoever got Teixeira was getting him for only two months guaranteed, I’ll repeat that I thought the Braves did well to get a quality major league first baseman in return. And Kotchman is that, regardless of what some here have opined.
He’s not Teixeira, and it’s safe to say he probably never will be. Not offensively. Teixeira is, statistically speaking, one of the dozen or so most complete overall hitters in the game today. That’s considering average, OBP, slugging, homers, RBI, etc.
But Kotchman, at 25, is a former top-rated prospect who could reasonably be expecged to hit .280-290 with 20-25 homers, perhaps a few more, and driving in 90-110 runs if he stays healthy as the Braves’ every-day first baseman. And he’ll probably make less over the next three seasons (2009-2011) than Tex will get in half a season under the long-term contract he signs with whichever team this winter.
One thing is certain: Anyone who’s seen him play knows Kotchman is an outstanding defensive first baseman. Some have said he’s as good or better than Tex. I wouldn’t go quite that far; to me, Teixeira was the second-best defensive first baseman in the league behind Derrek Lee.
But Kotchman is outstanding with the glove, no question. The left-hander ranked second among AL first baseman with a .998 fielding percentage and only two errors in 913 chances this season, while Teixeira led NL first baseman with the same .998 percentage and two errors in 1,030 chances.
Kotchman also ranked second among AL 1Bs with 73 assists, while Tex was ninth in the NL with 65.
Again, I’d give the edge to Tex in fielding, but not by much.
For the Braves, who have plenty of other needs to fill, including starting pitching, that payroll issue was decisive, even if they’ve got about $40 mill coming off the books after this season with expiring contracts and the trade of Teixeira, and the significantly reduced salaries for Smoltz and/or Glavine if either is back.
(By the way, the Braves don’t have the $50-plus mill coming off that I heard some guys on the radio talking about today — those folks just counted the $15 mill Hampton salary and $7 mill Kotsay salary, etc., without even considering what amount of those salaries the Braves are paying or what Smoltz might get, etc., not to mention the raises for McCann — from $800,000 this season to $3.5 mill in ‘09 in the second year of his six-year contract — and for a few others who are arb-eligible, which will eat into some of that amount that’s being shed, though not a great amount.)
If Tim Hudson’s elbow requires “Tommy John” surgery, as everyone fears, that opens a huge void atop the rotation, and that’ll be an expensive one to fill with an established starter.
But we can get into all their needs and such after Thursday, when the dust settles and we see what the Braves have acquired and maybe try to find out if there’s a ballpark figure for next year’s payroll.
Some Chipper quotes: Here’s what the third baseman said after last night’s game, about being sellers, about trading away Tex, about younger Braves players being almost devastated by the move, etc.
“It’s tough for all of us,” Jones said. “We’ve never been sellers before. We’re usually the ones who are adding, not subtracting. It’s tough to come to grips with, because we felt coming out of Spring Training that we’d be right in the mix all year long.”
“It’s a tough pill to swallow knowing that Tex isn’t going to be with us through the remainder of the season. And No. 2, we have no chance of signing him. But that’s the business of baseball. Casey kotchman is a good player, he’s going to help us a lot. To what extent, we’ll find out.”
When I asked Chipper about whether he thought the Tex trade would be the last, he said:
“I would highly doubt it. I would imagine this is probably the first in a steady line of moves, to be honest with you, pointing toward a positive end to this year and a positive start to next year.
“It’s hard. Nobody wants to be in this situation but unfortunately the way free agency is these days and the high dollars that are commanded, the injuries that we sustained, here we are.”
Getting back to Kotchman… Between the mono he had a few years ago and a recurring hand injury that slowed him another season, Kotchman been slowed in his development and only in the past two years has gotten a chance to play on a regular basis.
I saw him hit a two-run homer off Jorge Campillo in a 2-0 Angels win over the Braves on June 14 in Anaheim, one of the career-high 12 he’s hit this season. He has three homers in his last four games, including one Monday at Boston in what turned out to be his final game for the Angels.
Much has been made of how Tex joining Vlad Guerrero gives the Angels the kind of devastating 1-2 middle-lineup punch that Boston has (well, when Manny actually cares and is not acting like he’s completely lost his mind).
So it might surprise you to see how Kotchman has compared with Vlad this season. Kotchman has hit .287 with 24 doubles, 12 homers, 54 RBIs, a .327 OBP and .448 slugging percentage (.775 OPS) in 373 at-bats.
Guerrero has hit .284 with 17 doubles, 17 homers, 54 RBI, a .346 OBP and .478 slugging (.824 OPS) 370 at-bats.
No, I’m not suggesting Kotchman is comparable to Vlad, just pointing out stats that surprised me. By the way, Kotchman doesn’t walk nearly enough (only 18 walks this season), but how nice is it going to be to see a guy who has struck out only 23 times all season, or once ever 16.2 at-bats? Braves need that.
That homer off Campillo was one of only two at Anaheim this season for Kotchman. But on the road, he led the Angels with 10 homers and 32 RBIs.
Second on the team in road homers and RBI was Guerrero, with nine and 31. Kotchman’s .492 road slugging percentage ranked second among the Angels to Guerrero’s .516.
And with runners in scoring position, Kotchman this season has hit .298 (28-for-94) with 10 extra-base hits and a .468 slugging percentage.
Teixeira hit .282 (31-for-110) with runners in scoring position, with nine extra-base hits and a .473 slugging percentage.
Again, not suggesting Kotchman is Tex. He’s not. But the dropoff might not be as great as some thought, at least not in run-producing situations.
By the way, in his last 11 games Kotchman has seven extra-base hits (four homers) and 10 RBI with only two strikeouts. That might be a nice change of pace around here, don’t you think?
Batting title in peril? Don’t look now, but the batting title that looked so likely for Chipper Jones until a few weeks ago is looking less so by the day.
While the Braves third baseman is on the 15-day DL recovering from a pulled hamstring, his league-leading .369 average is only 14 points ahead of the hard-charging Albert Pujols (keep in mind, Jones’ lead was more than twice that for most of the season).
(And for those keeping track at home, Francoeur’s .232 average is fifth-lowest among NL qualifiers.)
Pujols has hit .372 in his past 30 games, including .394 since July 10 and a whopping .556 (10-for-18) with three homers and eight RBI in his past four games (he had one last night in the rout of the reeling Bravos).
Chipper hit .419 with 15 homers, 41 RBI and a .504 OBP and .676 slugging percentage in his first 60 games through June 11.
Since then, Hoss has hit .253 (24-for-95) with three homers, 14 RBI, a .379 OBP and .411 slugging percentage in his past 29 games.
Not only is Pujols bearing down on him, but Jones also isn’t a lock to have the minimum 502 plate appearances to qualify for the batting title. He has 380 plate appearances now, and with his faltering health and the Braves out of the race, will he play enough between now and season’s end to get those 502 plate appearances? Could be interesting.
Who said we’d have nothing to monitor in games down the stretch?
Speaking of reeling Braves…. The recent numbers are ugly. A blood bath. The Braves are 17-28 with a .250 batting average and 4.56 ERA since June 6, a stretch that began with that first sweep by the Phillies at Turner Field.
The Braves are 9-16 with a .246 average and 5.28 ERA in their past 25 games.
And at home since that June 6 game against Philly, the Braves are 6-14 with a 5.29 ERA and only 73 runs scored in 20 games. That includes six consecutive losses against the Phillies in that stretch.
The Braves in July are 3-8 at home with a .240 average and horrid 6.39 ERA.
During their current four-game losing streak that started Saturday in Philly, the Braves have hit .285 and scored 25 runs, but they’ve posted a 9.79 ERA and given up 42 runs.
”HARD TIMES” as sung by Ray Charles
My mother told me
‘Fore she passed away
Said son when I’m gone
Don’t forget to pray
‘Cause there’ll be hard times
Lord those hard times
Who knows better than I?
Well I soon found out
Just what she meant
When I had to pawn my clothes
Just to pay the rent
Talkin’ ‘bout hard times
Lord those hard times
Who knows better than I?
I had a woman
Who was always around
But when I lost my money
She put me down
Talkin’ ‘bout hard times
Hard times
Yeah, yeah, who knows better than I?
Lord, one of these days
There’ll be no more sorrow
When I pass away
And no more hard times
No more hard times
Yeah, yeah, who knows better than I?
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