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Tuesday, July 29, 2008
Sifting through Braves’ Black Monday
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Sorting through the carnage of Braves Black Monday, let’s see if we can put together a quick blog between making calls trying to figure out who’ll next employ Mark Teixeira and a couple others likely to soon become ex-Braves.
To recap Monday: The Braves raised a figurative white flag earlier in the day, officially deciding to move into sell mode amid mounting injuries and horrid blown leads in Saturday and Sunday losses at Philly.
They put their best hitter (Chipper Jones) and best pitcher (Tim Hudson) on the disabled list in the afternoon. Then the Braves got their doors blown off by St. Louis in a 12-3 loss that gave the Braves their first three-game skid since 1986 in which they allowed 10 or more runs in each game.
Oh, and during that ugly defeat, the Braves hastily called a press conference in the back of the pressbox to announce that the MRI on Hudson’s elbow revealed potentially awful news — ulnar collateral ligament damage.
Everyone including the Braves and Hudson seemed genuinely surprised by the development. Of course, the way this season has gone for the Braves, they shouldn’t have been.
The way this season has gone, the Braves should know to expect the absolute worst, then be pleased when it’s merely bad news instead of devastating news.
One broadcaster said to me last night that, if there’s anything whatsoever that could be a positive in this season gone awry, it’s that perhaps the Braves needed such a pile of bad developments to convince them not to try to band-aid this thing at the trade deadline, and instead to point toward the future and get what they could for Teixeira, lefty Will Ohman and perhaps others.
Well, I said, if it took an epic failure meal in a bowl of sadness (I like to steal comic Patton Oswalt’s lines) to provide the impetus for such a decision, then the Braves certainly were served one this summer.
Trade away, Frank Wren. If this were the winter meetings back in the day, Wren would be sitting at a table in the hotel ballroom about now, with the “open for business” sign like Bill Veeck once did.
Or be like “Trader Jack” McKeon, who earned that nickname early in his career when he was GM of the Padres. But it was during a winter meetings in the 1990s, when McKeon was an advisor with the Reds, when towards the end of meetings one day he said, “We’ve got a cabana over there with cocktails, and we’re open for business.”
There won’t be anything so colorful for Wren as the clock ticks toward the 4 p.m. Thursday non-waiver deadline. These aren’t the winter meetings, and much business these days is done by text messages and Crackberries.
Wren is working the phones along with his top assistants and advisors, zeroing in on the best offer he can get for Teixeira from a group of bidders that’s known to include both L.A. teams, Arizona, and Tampa Bay.
One minute you’ll hear or ready that this team is out of it, was never in it, doesn’t know where that rumor started, blah blah blah, the next minute you’ll hear how this team is saying they aren’t in it but they might get in it when the asking price drops, etc.
Just know that Wren assures there is a market for Teixera, who he called the “best player” available when he refuted a suggestion by one writer (not me) that the Braves weren’t in “a position of strengtr” in trade talks now because other teams knew they were looking to move players as Atlanta’s injury-marred season swirled toward the drain.
Wren stared at him and said, “Why would you say that?” After the guy explained what he meant, Wren said, “I think we’re in a position of great strength, because we have the best player, and some of the best assets out there that people want. And there’s lot of competition for them. There are lots of teams that desire them.
“So I think we’re in a very good position.”
Alrighty, then.
Anyway, I think he’s right. They’re not in anything like the position of strength that Texas was in a year ago, when the Rangers were peddling the best available hitter (Teixeira) and best available lefty reliever, and the hitter had a full season to go before free agency.
Teixeira has only two months (and a possible postseason) to go until free agency now, which is why teams aren’t going to give the Braves a bevy of top prospects in return, even if this year’s best available lefty reliever (Ohman) is included.
It would be a tremendous deal for Atlanta if they could squeeze Conor Jackson out of Arizona, or James Loney from the Dodgers. But unless one of those teams get desperate and decide Teixeira is the difference in them advancing deep in the playoffs or perhaps not even making it to the postseason, and that they want to keep a division foe from getting him, then what I hear is that neither team is going to give up such a high-quality talent with years left until free agency for, in effect, a two-month rental. Things can change, though. Quickly.
I do hear the Braves have a legit shot at either the Angels’ Casey Kotchman, a good-not-great 1B who could still develop into something very good, or an Arizona package that includes 1B/3B Chad Tracy and perhaps pitcher Micah Owings. Hey, that’s a better bet than two draft picks, who could end up being good players but just as easily could end up never amounting to anything.
I was informed this morning that the Devil Rays are indeed interested, even though they have Carlos Pena. That DH thing over in the AL, you know? But would the D-Rays give up anything more than middling prospects or an aging former 1B prospect, Dan Johnson? Because it’ll take a lot more than that, I’m sure.
As for Ohman, the Braves could package him with Tex, as I said, or could deal him to one of at least a half-dozen teams that have expressed serious interest.
I keep getting asked about Francoeur-to-K.C. trade rumors. Folks, I don’t know if there’s been any serious discussions. The Braves aren’t ready to give up on Francoeur, but I’m also sure they’ll listen if K.C. wants to start dangling pitching. The reason this rumor is worth keeping in mind is obvious: Royals GM Dayton Moore was the Braves’ farm director during Francoeur’s rise through the Braves organization.
From what I understand, Moore and Francoeur have remained in contact as friends since Dayton left a few years ago.
OK, changing subjects to Huddy: We won’t know more about Hudson, probably, until after he sees the Braves orthopedist on Wednesday and perhaps not until after he sees Dr. Andrews in Birmingham later in the week.
But folks, more often than not, these elbow injury diagnoses are not good. As most of you all surely know, when a player goes to see Andrews, more often than not the news is not good and surgery is usually required.
Perhaps this will be one of those cases where the MRI results were a bit misleading and it’s only inflammation or a minor tear that won’t require surgery. I don’t know. But I wouldn’t bet on it, if I were a betting man.
Anyway, what does this mean for the Braves? Well, potentially it’s a huge setback, make no mistake about that. Hudson is their only proven, healthy starter, and he’s under contract, with a $13 million salary in 2009, and a $12 million mutual option for 2010.
If he’s out for next season, the Braves will have to make it a priority to acquire a legit ace to replace him, whether on the free agent market (always hugely expensive for proven, durable starters) or through a trade, whether now or this winter if the Braves would have to dangle a top prospect/young player or three and see what they might get in return.
Hudson is 11-7 with a 3.17 ERA in a staff-leading 142 innings, and has a 146-77 career record in 10 seasons with Oakland and Atlanta.
He’s second to Brandon Webb in the NL in percentage of groundballs, sixth innings, sixth in home ERA, and also in the top 10 in lowest OBP allowed, lowest slugging percentage allowed, fewest hits per nine innings, etc.
In other words, he’s one of the best 10 starters in the NL.
Jair Jurrjens might be his equal next season. Might be. But that’s not assured, since Jair is only in his first full season in the majors and still hasn’t demonstrated he can handle the workload of a full season as an ace, churning out the 200 or more innings that an ace is supposed to deliver.
The Braves would love to have Hudson and Jurrjens heading up their rotation, then maybe add another proven, quality starter, maybe even another ace. But take Hudson out of the equation and it becomes a desperate need to fill.
Can’t go into next season with Jurrjens, Campillo, Morton, Reyes, and hope that Hanson is ready and Smoltz can return at midseason, etc. Can’t do that. As we’ve seen again this season, never can have enough starting pitching.
And without Hudson, the Braves will be scrambling to replenish their rotation.
So they’d best cross fingers and hope for a better-than-expected report. That, or starting gearing trade talks more toward pitching, and quickly.
No saves here, move along: Can you believe that after 106 games the Braves save leader is Mike Gonzalez, with four? Yes, four.
The Braves have a major league-low 15 saves in 25 opportunities. There are seven NL teams with more saves than the Braves have save opportunities.
To repeat, the Braves saves leader is Mike Gonzalez, who missed nearly half the season recovering from Tommy John surgery. And his total is four saves. Four.
John Smoltz used to get four (or more) saves in a week.
Ahh, those were the days.
Tex has the numbers: Since he was traded to the Braves at last year’s deadline, Teixeira has hit .295 with 36 doubles, 37 homers and 134 RBI in 157 games, with a .395 OBP, .548 slugging percentage and six errors.
Here’s what some other NL first basemen have done in that span:
Derrek Lee: .302 with 44 doubles, 28 homers, 92 RBI in 160 games, with a .367 OBP, .510 slugging percentage and 12 errors.
Albert Pujols: .350 with 37 doubles, 29 homers, 95 RBI in 149 games, with a .456 OBP and .592 slugging percentage and four errors.
Lance Berkman: .332 with 42 doubles, 39 homers, 112 RBI in 157 games, with a .430 OBP, .623 slugging percentage and nine errors.
Prince Fielder: .283 with 25 doubles, 40 homers, 102 RBI in 156 games, with a .392 OBP, .552 slugging percentage and 13 errors.
Adrian Gonzalez: .289 with 35 doubles, 39 homers, 119 RBI in 164 games, with a .360 OBP, .531 slugging percentage and nine errors.
Ryan Howard: .246 with 22 doubles, 48 homers, 144 RBI in 161 games, with a .344 OBP, .525 slugging percentage and 17 errors.
By the way, Teixeira appears to be hot at the right time for trade purposes: He’s hit .337 with 10 homers and 27 RBI in his past 29 games, including .410 (16-for-39) with six doubles, three homers, 11 RBI and 10 walks in his past 11 games.
”TUPELO HONEY” by Van Morrison
You can take all the tea in China
Put it in a big brown bag for me
Sail right around the seven oceans
Drop it straight into the deep blue sea
She’s as sweet as tupelo honey
She’s an angel of the first degree
She’s as sweet as tupelo honey
Just like honey from the bee
You can’t stop us on the road to freedom
You can’t keep us ‘cause our eyes can see
Men with insight, men in granite
Knights in armor bent on chivalry
She’s as sweet as tupelo honey
She’s an angel of the first degree
She’s as sweet as tupelo honey
Just like honey from the bee
You can’t stop us on the road to freedom
You can’t stop us ‘cause our eyes can see
Men with insight, men in granite
Knights in armor intent on chivalry
She’s as sweet as tupelo honey
She’s an angel of the first degree
She’s as sweet as tupelo honey
Just like honey from the bee
You know she’s alright
You know she’s alright with me
She’s alright, she’s alright (she’s an angel)
You can take all the tea in China
Put it in a big brown bag for me
Sail it right around the seven oceans
Drop it smack dab in the middle of the deep blue sea
Because she’s as sweet as tupelo honey
She’s an angel of the first degree
She’s as sweet as tupelo honey
Just like honey from the bee
She’s as sweet as tupelo honey
She’s an angel of the first degree
She’s as sweet as tupelo honey
Just like the honey, baby, from the bee
She’s my baby, you know she’s alright…..
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