AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2008 > July > 28
Monday, July 28, 2008
Lost weekend in season of discontent
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Back on the case, we’ll clear the decks here as we await announcements later today regarding DL assignments and expected replacements, etc.
Expect Clint Sammons to be brought up to fill in for concussed Brian McCann, and Charlie Morton to get tonight’s start, which means someone (Chipper?) will have to be DL’d to open a roster spot for Morton. Oh, and Tex to be traded to Arizona.
(Got your attention, didn’t I?)
Anyway, after the Saturday-Sunday bullpen meltdowns and huge blown leads (did the Braves really blow a six-run lead Saturday and a five-run lead Sunday?) made it more likely than ever that Mark Teixeira will be moved by Thursday’s non-waiver trade deadline, thought I’d take a look at his year with the Braves and what they might possibly get in return if they trade him.
But first, did you all happen to see Jon Heyman’s Inside Baseball story in Sports Illustrated last week? SI did a survey of 20 major league GMs, asst. GMs, scouting directors and scouts, and asked them to name the five players they’d build their franchises around.
Youth was obviously a factor, as most don’t want to build a team around players in the downside of their careers. That explains why, of the 35 players who got votes, only four were older than 30, including A-Rod, who was second in the overall voting behind Marlins shortstop Hanley Ramirez.
They did it on a 5-4-3-2-1 scoring system, and Hanley was the runaway winner with 40 points and 5 first-place votes among the 20 voters. A-Rod had 29 points, Chase Utley 27, 22-year-old Mariners pitcher Felix Hernandez had 23, and Joe Mauer had 21, the only others with more than 20 points in the voting.
OK, but here’s what surprised me a bit. While I stated here last week that I could name at least 10 NL players I’d rather build a team around than Teixeira, it surprises me that people who don’t see as much of him as those who watch him daily, would also feel the same way.
I mean, would think his undisputedly large statistics, his excellent defense, and age (28) might land him in, say, the top 20 in a poll like this one in SI, wouldn’t you?
Well, think again. Because of the 35 players who received votes in this baseball-wide survey, Brian McCann was on the list, but Teixeira was not. Not so much as one fifth-place vote did he receive.
You can interpret that as you see fit, but the varied likes of Carlos Beltran, Russell Martin, Lance Berkman, Evan Longoria, Jake Peavy, Adrian Gonzalez and B.J. Upton received votes, and Tex did not.
Anyway….
Getting back to his year with the Braves. If it ends this week, it will have been a statistically impressive run, at least in terms of raw numbers. No question about that.
Since he was dealt to Atlanta from Texas as the centerpiece in a blockbuster, seven-player deal just before last year’s trade deadline, Teixeira has played 156 games for the Braves and hit .294 with 34 doubles, 37 homers, 133 RBI, 92 walks, 115 strikeouts, a .394 OBP and .545 slugging percentage.
The Braves went 76-80 in those games.
(Just for the curious, former Braves prospect Jarrod Saltalamacchia has hit .242 with 10 homers and 45 RBI in 93 games (331 at-bats) for Texas since the trade, with a .311 OBP, .387 slugging percentage, 106 strikeouts and 18 errors. Rangers got four other prospects in the deal, though, and most are progressing, so only time will tell.)
Tex might not make the top 35 of players those surveyed by SI would build around, but Tex did inspire a memorable hit song on You Tube (remember those two guys from Auburn? That’s making the most of your 15 minutes).
Remember the Tex hysteria in that first month or so when the former Georgia Tech standout wore the tomahawk? He inspired it with his huge production right after the deal, including three homers and seven RBIs in his first three games for Atlanta and nine homers and 25 RBI in his first 18 games.
Yes, nine homers and 25 RBIs in his first 18 games with the team. The Braves went 10-8 in those games.
There was so much promise. But it fizzled out. The Braves sputtered in the final weeks of the 2007 season, officially eliminated from the wild-card hunt in the last week.
And this season? Ugly. Multiple injuries to key pitchers; disappointments from the corner outfield positions, especially RF; and yes, a slow start by Teixeira, who always started slow with Texas, and did again with the Braves.
The Braves really needed him to help Chipper Jones carry the load in that first month and a half. It didn’t happen. Yunel Escobar and Brian McCann had torrid stretches in that period, but Tex didn’t.
The Braves got too far back and, each time they seemed poised to make a big move, they’d have a terrible series or two and push the frustration needle to the right.
Oh, it’s been a maddening season for Braves Nation, to be sure. Fairly or unfairly, Tex fell out of favor with many when he struggled early on and didn’t seen too concerned by it (he’d keep saying how he always started slow, that it was a marathon not a sprint, etc.).
People don’t want to hear that when they’re team is slipping in the standings and injuries are mounting. They want to hear how you feel terrible for not helping out, how you can’t look at yourself in the mirror because you’re not doing your part, that kind of thing.
Hey, it’s just human nature. And if you ask me, some people need a good PR agent to explain that to them, to explain that a little regret and beating one’s self up publicly goes a long way. But hey, I’m no PR agent.
Long story short, this was the year when Tex needed to buck his trend of slow starts. But it didn’t happen. Who knows if a huge first month from him could have made the difference for the Braves? But I can assure you, it sure would have made things a bit more interesting.
OK, so what do they get in a trade? I still don’t know, and I’m just behind honest when I say that. While I do believe the Braves can and will get a decent deal for him, assuming they trade him by Thursday, there’s a very good chance it won’t be nearly enough to satisfy fans who don’t seem to understand the difference between his situation now and a year ago.
The Braves gave up a bounty for Tex and lefty Ron Mahay because they were getting Teixeira for what they believed would be two playoff runs. Not one, but two. Turns out, they’ve gotten no playoff runs from him, and won’t unless they decide to keep him and then they make a huge turnaround in their season.
But if things had worked out as they hoped and planned, they’d have gone to the playoffs twice with Teixeira as their cleanup hitter and Gold Glove-caliber first baseman, and also would’ve had Mahay as their top situational lefty for one of those postseasons.
Few would be able to argue that the price had not been worth it (well, some would’ve argued that case anyway, barring a World Series win for the Braves. But you can’t win that argument with that segment of the fan base, so no reason to try.)
Anyway, things obviously didn’t work out, and now people want to see what the Braves get for Tex and then will judge just how bad they think last year’s deal was. That’s part of the game when you make such deals. It’s the nature of fando. But GMs know this, and know they can’t be afraid to make a deal for fear that it will anger fans a year later, like the J.D. Drew deal and others have before this one.
You roll the dice. Your minor league system exists both to produce players you can use in the majors and to produce players you can trade to fill holes in an effort to put you over the top.
Where were we? Oh, what the Braves might get.
The market isn’t what we might have expected for Teixeira, simply because so many contenders are set at first base and designated hitter.
Only contenders who are willing to part with a young player and or prospects in return for a two-month rental - because agent Scott Boras doesn’t usually do that long-term extension before a trade is finalized thing. He’ll want to take his guy to the open market this winter, to seek a deal worth more than $20 mill a year for seven or eight seasons for Teixeira.
Will he get that? I don’t know. But he’ll try. And Boras, he’s pretty good at this stuff, if you haven’t heard.
So what’s the market? If I’m the Braves, I keep pushing the Diamondbacks for Conor Jackson, who’s hitting .324 with a .407 OBP, with 12 homers and 55 RBI. That includes a sublime .396 average and 1.137 OPS in 96 at-bats vs. lefties.
Jackson’s a stellar player and the Braves could have him under control for three more years in arbitration, and he’s also played left field in the majors. He’d be huge “get” for the Braves if they could land him in a trade for Tex.
But I don’t think the D-Backs are going to give him up for Tex; I know if I were them I wouldn’t
So perhaps the Braves can work out a deal with Arizona involving Chad Tracy, another 1B who’d be under contract for under $5 mill next season. He ain’t Conor Jackson, but Tracy is a .289 career hitter with 131 doubles, 68 homers and 267 RBIs in 563 games, with a .348 career OBP.
He’s hitting .303 this season with six homers, includking .350 (14-for-40) with runners in scoring position.
However, Tracy is just a .226 career hitter against lefties, and only 22 of his 145 at-bats this season have been against lefties.
If the Braves do a deal for him, they’ve probably got to get something else solid thrown in, or else don’t you take the two draft picks instead?
Barring a deal with Arizona, I’d keep pushing the Angels for 1B Casey Kotchman, because he’d also give Atlanta a young (25), affordable 1B for at least next season, with a line-drive swing and pretty good power (.296 average with 11 homers last season, 11 homers already this season with a .288 average).
I know Boras has a great relationship with both the Angels and Dodgers, and probably could convince either team there’d be a good chance to re-sign Tex. But the Dodgers, unless they really believed they could re-sign him, wouldn’t possibly trade young 1B James Loney (career .312/.367 OBP/.508 slugging) for Teixeira, could they?
Anyway, stay tuned. It’s going to be a interesting week around here, what with the Teixeira situation and the bigger trade market that exists for veteran lefty Will Ohman.
(And wasn’t Ohman’s reading of the Braves lineup Saturday on Fox, with his impersonation of the late, great Harry Caray, spectacular? Gonna miss that dude if he’s traded. I won’t have anyone else to talk to about The Big Lebowski - Ohman knows just about all the dialogue and has a T-shirt with The Dude on it.)
McCann, Chipper voids: So how much will the Braves miss if they are without both Chipper Jones and Brian McCann for most or all of this week?
Well, they’d miss a hell of a lot, to say the least.
Jones and McCann rank second and sixth in the NL in on-base plus slugging percentage (OPS), Jones at 1.062 and McCann at .949. The others in the top six? Berkman, Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday and Pat Burrell.
Chipper still leads the league with a .369 average and .466 OBP. By the way, Jeff Francoeur’s .288 OBP is third-lowest among NL qualifiers.
McCann’s concussion — on a clean, hard play, I might add; Shane Victorino did nothing wrong in that collision Sunday — comes at a time when McCann has been carrying the offense, batting .390 (16-for-41) with five homers and 15 RBI in his past 13 games, with 13 walks, two strikeouts and a .545 OBP in that span.
Between them, Chipper and Mac have 32 of the Braves’ 77 homers against right-handers. They are the team’s two best in homers and slugging percentage against righties, and Tex (13) is the only other Brave with as many as 10 homers against right-handers.
Oh, and Chipper and Mac are also the only two Braves regulars hitting .300 or higher with runners in scoring position. Each is at .310 with RISP; next-best is Gregor Blanco at .297, among Braves with at least 30 at-bats with RISP.
This would be Chipper’s first DL stint in more than a year. Since returning from his last stint on June 13, 2007, he’s hit .361 with 44 doubles, 35 homers and 130 RBI in 181 games, with a .452 OBP and .596 slugging percentage.
The Braves are 93-88 in that stretch when Chipper plays, and 5-15 when he does not.
Declining relief: Blaine Boyer leads the majors with 56 appearances, and the wear and tear seems to be showing. He has a 5.82 ERA and .287 opponents’ average in 23 appearanes since June 8, with six walks and 16 strikeouts in 21-2/3 innings….
But no one has slipped lately more than lefty Royce Ring, who has been terrible in July. He’s got a stagginer 22.09 ERA and .571 opponents’ average in seven appearances since July 2, with 12 hits, nine earned runs and six walks in just 3-2/3 innings.
He’s given up at least one hit in every appearance, at least one walk in five of the seven appearances, and multiple hits or multiple walks in four of the seven.
The punchless outfield: Braves outfielders still have only 20 home runs; no other NL team has gotten fewer than 26 homers from outfielders, and half of the 16 teams have at least 44 outfielder homers…. Jeff Francoeur has hit .165 (20-for-121) with one homer and seven RBI in his past 32 games….
Close-and-yikes: You want a startling stat? Tex (four) and Jeff Francoeur (three) have seven of the Braves’ mere nine homers in close-and-late situations. McCann and Escobar have the other two. Seven NL teams have more than twice as many homers in close-and-late situations than the Braves, including the Marlins with a league-high 32 and Phillies with 22…. The Braves’ .242 average in close-and-late situations is better than only Washington and San Diego in the NL.
“HURRICANE PARTY” by James McMurtry
The hurricane party’s windin’ down and we’re all waitin’ for the end
And I don’t won’t another drink, I only want that last one again
He gave me such a fine glow, smokin’ slow, now I should probably be homeward bound
There’s just no one to talk to when the lines go down
I guess that in the morning I’ll go lookin’ for my gray-striped cat
My old house can take the weather so I’m not too concerned about that
It was built to take the wind back in nineteen-and-ten when this was one damned fine town
But now there’s no one to talk to when the lines go down
Candles flickered on the back bar and the building was shakin’ with the wind
I bought a whiskey for the gypsy and she turned my leather back into skin
Just a fleeting sense of that rare suspense I once thought made the world go round
But now there’s no one to talk to when the lines go down
Open up your back screen door
Let me see your face once more
My hands are cold and my feet so sore
And I can’t go on this way
And the thoughts come too fast and too many to keep count, best just to let ‘em on through
Now I’m breaking those glass insulators with my old 22
Off the telephone polls as a half dollar rolls across the knuckles of a rodeo clown
There’s just no one to talk to when the lines go down
My one great love, my God, I can feel her still
She ran off to California and now she’s living in those Hollywood hills
With some bullfrog prince, I’ve not seen her since
Though she calls when he’s out of town
And there’s no one to talk to when the lines go down
Open up your back screen door
Let me in your space once more
I was looking for an easy score
But it just don’t work that way
Some insurance man-biker is yellin’ out for one more beer
But a part-time pirate just can’t get much respect around here
We got our problems too, man we’ll get to you
In just a minute, sit your drunk a@# down
Yeah, there’s no one to talk to when the lines go down
Now there’s water up past the wheel wells of my
Ford and I don’t guess that it’ll run
But I left a pack of Winston’s on the dash, could you fetch ‘em for me son?
The morning’s first cigarette, that’s as good as it gets all day I should know by now
But there’s no one to talk to when the lines go down
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