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Monday, July 21, 2008
Trading Tex not as simple as some think
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Raise you hands if you thought that on July 21, the Braves would be opening this series in Florida with the Marlins playing for a share of first place and the Braves contemplating trading away a star this late in the season for the first time since, well, since Dale Murphy was traded away on Aug. 4, 1990?
And keep in mind, Murph was nearing the end of his career and didn’t object to being shipped away given the Braves’ situation in that last season before The Run began a year later.
Mark Teixeira is not near the end of his career, he’s 28, right in the middle of his peak years.
But that’s where the Braves are today, at least six games behind three different teams in the NL East, coming off a terrible pair of losses against Washington at Turner Field over the weekend that might well have pulled the lever on the Teixeira (and Will Ohman) trade machinery.
It’s not the 6-1/2-game deficit that makes a postseason push such a formidable task for the Braves at this point. Plenty of teams have overcome deficits greater than that in less time than there is remaining in this season.
No, it’s the fact that there are three teams with 6- or 6-1/2-game leads over the Braves in the NL East that makes this just about an insurmountable task. Because the Braves have let three teams build significant leads on them, they now are not in control of their own destiny by any stretch of the imagination.
Because now the Braves would have to hope that not one, not two, but three teams would all struggle while, oh yeah, they themselves finally put together a solid run of baseball.
Stranger things have happened … but not too many stranger things.
That miserable homestand was exactly what the Braves did not need if they wanted to try to convince anyone, including GM Frank Wren, that they had a realistic shot at turning this around and reeling in the division leaders.
Don’t know if Frank decided at some point during yesterday’s four-error debacle that it was time to ramp up trade talks, but wouldn’t surprise me (this is not something he’s going to discuss publicly, for obvious reasons; if the Braves want to trade Teixeira, they’d prefer other teams to think they’re not desperate and wouldn’t mind holding on to him and trying to re-sign him, etc.)
Oh, for those who’ve asked me if the Braves have any hope of re-signing Teixeira, or even plan to make an offer: I don’t know, but I get the distinct impression they are not planning to go down that road.
Just from conversations with people connected with the team in various capacities, I haven’t heard anything since spring training to make me believe they’re thinking of, or have talked to him or agent Scott Boras about, a big offer to keep Tex here.
Some who’ve talked to Boras about it say he’s sent signals that he’ll ask for $22-23 mill a year in an eight-year deal for Tex. Good luck with that. Can’t see that happening. But if anybody is capable of getting him more than most of us believe Teixeira is worth, it’s certainly Boras, who plays one team against another team, or one offer against another supposed offer from a team that nobody can pin down and many observers will often doubt actually exists.
He’s turned that into art. Offseason art. Not the kind of thing you can pull off in midseason, which is why you don’t see Boras doing the window-to-work-out-a-contract-extension thing with his clients. By that I mean, if the Braves had a deal with, say, the Angels in place that depended upon the Angels first coming to an agreement on a long-term contract extension with Teixeira, well, I can’t see Boras agreeing to do that. Can’t see that at all.
Because what team would he use as leverage? What offer could he say he’s received from this team or that, in July?
No, the way it works is when Boras gets his clients this close to free agency, he takes them all the way through to the process, where he can work his magic and somehow, some way, usually get his clients more money than we think seems plausible.
Is Teixeira, with his Gold Glove-level defense and likely .290-30-120 to .310-45-130 offensive range for many years to come, worth $20 mill a season? I’d say only to a team that has a huge payroll, at least $150 mill or so. Not to a team with a $100 mill payroll, because while he piles up stats, he’s not a player, at least from what I’ve seen, who puts a team on his back and delivers big hits when the team needs it most.
Say, for instance, during the first six weeks of this season, when the Braves were dealing with a slew of injuries and Chipper Jones was carrying the offense with help from either Brian McCann or Yunel Escobar, but not much from Tex.
Slow-starter or not (and he’s a slow-starter, every season), the Braves needed to count on him for power and RBIs, and didn’t get it on a regular basis until about two months into the season, when they were already back in the standings.
Even yesterday, his two-homer, three-RBI game didn’t have much impact, seeing that both homers were solo shots, one early in the game when the Braves were already down 6-1, and the other, well, I’d have to look it up, it was so relatively meaningless near the end of an utter blowout loss.
Anyway, this isn’t to downplay his skills or output. Both are unquestionably big. He’s durable and piles up stats, year after year. But I know an impact offensive player, a player whose performance seems bigger than his numbers because he gets so many key hits. And I know the opposite.
A-Rod, for instance. Dude piles up huge numbers, year after year. Tremendous numbers. But let me ask you, how many SportsCenter highlights can you remember this year of A-Rod late-game homers or walk-off hits? Maybe a couple or few early on, but lately?
A-Rod’s the highest paid player in the game, and many will tell you he’s the best player in the game. But he’s not the player I would build a team around if I could have any player. No way.
And Teixeira will probably become one of the top-10 paid players, maybe top-five, but honestly, I can think of at last 10 other NL players I’d rather build a team around.
Tex probably will, and should, play on a big-payroll team like Boston or the Angels, a team where his money won’t be the subject of constant scrutiny every time he doesn’t come up with a big hit. A team that has plenty of other big bats.
The problem becomes, however, trying to trade him and get value in return. Because honestly, how many teams out there do you think fit the bill to trade for him right now? That team would presumably have to 1. Be willing to pick up the $4 mill or so he’s owed the rest of the season; 2. Not care that they probably can’t be assured of re-signing him (see explanation above); and 3. Be willing to give up a young player and/or prospect or two to make it worth it to the Braves to trade him.
Because if you’re the Braves, unless you can get, say, 1B/3B Kevin Youkilis from Boston (I can’t see that happening unless Big Papi wasn’t returning, and he’s about to return) or 1B Casey Kotchman and another mid-level prospect — Chone Figgins would be even better, but that seems highly unlikely —- from the Angels, or something similar from another team, then is it really clearly in your best interests to trade him?
Or might you decide to take the draft picks — a first-round and a sandwich pick b etween the first and second rounds — and keep Teixeira the rest of the year, maybe hold out hope that the marketplace for him won’t be what he thought or he likes it so much in Atlanta that he’d take less to stay (also unlikely; the man seems to be all business, not much emotion or sentiment, when it comes to baseball).
Having said all that, I’ll bet that if Wren pulls the trigger on a deal, it’ll be a solid trade for the Braves. He really is sharp in the deal-making aspect of the business, has proven that over the years both as a GM and as an assistant GM who had a lot of responsibilities.
We’ll get into Will Ohman later. Needless to say, several teams will be ready with offers for a top-flight veteran lefty reliever at the deadline. But right now, I’ve got to get ready and get out to Dolphin Stadium.
The East co-leading Mets and Phillies are idle tonight before starting a three-game series Tuesday in New York, and the Marlins are a half-game back. That means at the end of the night the Marlins are either going to be in a three-way tie for first place and the Braves seven games behind all of them, or the Braves are going to be six games in back of first-place NY and Philly.
Etc: During his 0-5 skid over his past five starts, Jo-Jo Reyes has posted a 7.65 ERA and .353 opponents’ average, and the Braves have scored a total of one run while he’s been in those five games. They scored zero runs while he was in four straight games before getting one run while he was in yesterday’s loss….
Jeff Francoeur’s .288 OBP is the fifth-lowest among NL qualifiers (minimum 3.1 plate appearances per scheduled game), and Gregor Blanco’s .315 slugging percentage is fifth-lowest among league qualifiers….
In order to finish with a plus-.500 record in this crucial nine-game stretch, after dropping two of three to Washington the Braves would have to go 4-2 against the Marlins and Phillies on this trip. Keep in mind, they haven’t had a winning trip all season….
Braves outfielders have 20 homers, fewest in the NL. Next-lowest total belongs to Dodgers outfielders (24)….
Teixeira is hitting .379 with a 1.293 OPS and 41 RBI in 31 day games, and hitting .229 with a .689 OPS and 31 RBI in 65 night games….
Francoeur’s skid continues unabated since his return from a three-game stint in the minors, but he’s hardly the only Braves hitter struggling. Kelly Johnson has hit .234 in his past 40 games with two homers, 13 RBIs, 27 strikeouts and a .665 OPS…..
Speaking of Francoeur, he’s hit .157 (13-for-83) with one double, one homer and four RBI in his past 23 games, with four walks, 21 strikeouts and a .436 OPS. He has more errors (three) than extra-base hits in that stretch.
OK, enough misery. Let’s loosen things up with a good tune.
”GRINGO HONEYMOON” by Robert Earl Keen
We were standin’ on a mountain top
Where the cactus flowers grow
I was wishin’ that the world would stop
When you said we’d better go
We took a rowboat ‘cross the Rio Grande
Captain Pablo was our guide
For two dollars in a weathered hand
He rowed us to the other side
CHORUS:
And we were dreamin’ like the end was not in sight
And we dreamed all afternoon
We asked the world to wait so we could celebrate
A gringo honeymoon
We stepped out onto the golden sand
The sun was high and burning down
Rented donkeys from an old blind man
Saddled up and rode to town
Tied our donkeys to an ironwood tree
By the street where the children play
We walked in the first place we could see
Servin’ cold beer in the shade
CHORUS:
We were drinkin’ like the end was not in sight
And we drank all afternoon
We asked the world to wait so we could celebrate
A gringo honeymoon
Met a cowboy who said that he
Was running from the DEA
He left a home, a wife, a family
When he made his getaway
We followed him on down a street of dust
To his one room run-down shack
He blew a smoke ring and he smiled at us
I ain’t never goin’ back
CHORUS:
We were flyin’ like the end was not in sight
And we soared all afternoon
We asked the world to wait so we could celebrate
A gringo honeymoon
He said there’s one last place that you should go
He took us to the town’s best bar
He knew a crusty caballero
Who played an old gut string guitar
And he sang like Marty Robbins could
Played like no one I’ve known
For a while we knew that life was good
It was ours to take back home
CHORUS:
We were singin’ like the end was not in sight
And we sang all afternoon
We asked the world to wait so we could celebrate
A gringo honeymoon
We were standin’ on a mountain top
Where the cactus flowers grow
I was wishin’ that the world would stop
When you said we’d better go
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