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Sunday, July 20, 2008
It’s mid-July, and it’s must-win time
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
In as much as any single game in July can be a “must win” game, today is a must-win game for the Braves.
And they’ll have to do it without Brian McCann in the lineup, because he has the day off unless he pinch-hits or whatever.
Hey, I know it’s hot as blazes and McCann didn’t have the entire All-Star break off like most teammates, etc., but barring some injury I wouldn’t rest him today. Too important a game, and he’s too integral to the team’s success.
You trade an All-Star hitting .302 with 18 homers and 56 RBI for Corky Miller, who’s hit .093 with one homer and three RBI in 22 games (43 at-bats).
Anyway, back to today’s game. Battle of losing lefties, record-wise: Jo-Jo Reyes (3-8) vs. Odalis Perez, though Perez has an ERA nearly three-quarters of a run lower (3.71 to 4.40).
This matter with the Braves against lefties reached crisis stage weeks ago, and they now have a league-low homers and a league-low .380 slugging vs. lefties. This compared to ranking sixth in the league in slugging vs righties (.426) and tied for seventh in homers vs. righties (72).
The Braves average one homer every 30.7 at-bats against righties, compared to just one every 56 at-bats against lefties. That’s a huge disparity, but you didn’t need Mr. Math (me) to tell you that.
If they can stay in this thing, win today and win the next two series at Florida and Philly, Braves could be buyers - and if they are, a right-handed outfield bat is absolutely essential, in my humble opinion.
Did I mention that Braves outfielders are the most punchless outfield corps in baseball? Well, they are. They have a league-low 20 homers, three fewer than even the sad-sack Nats outfielders (who aren’t so sad-sack when they face the Braves, for some reason).
Braves are tied with Minnnesota’s OFs for fewest homers in the majors. In the NL, seven of the other 15 NL teams besides Atlanta have at least 40 homers from their outfielders.
The Francoeur thing: I’ve done some research and discovered the Braves aren’t getting a lot of production from the right-field position, in particular. Yes, that’s the spot manned by Jeff Francoeur.
(OK, folks, a dose of Sunday sarcasm was contained in that previous paragraph.)
But seriously, all due respect to the Double-A Misssissippi staff and Braves decision-makers who decided it was time to bring him back after three games down on the farm: Uh, no. It ain’t fixed.
But it’s also a pretty damning testimony about the state of the Braves’ upper-level minor league system OFs when they were willing to recall Francoeur after just three days of a demotion that was expected to last through the break, at least.
I mean, they obviously decided they had no options they trusted more or believed gave them a better chance to win right away than Francoeur.
And that’s saying something.
He had a homer in his second game back at L.A. on July 9, and in five games since then Francoeur is 4-for-19 with no extra-base hits, three strikeouts, no walks (but two hit-by-pitches) and two double plays grounded into.
He’s hit .151 (14-for-93) with two extra-base hits, six RBIs, 21 strikeouts and three walks in his past 25 games, with a .210 OBP and .194 slugging percentage.
Since April 13, he’s hit .223 with six homers, 33 RBI and a .283 OBP in 81 games. In 41 home games in that stretch, it’s .214 with three homers, 18 RBI, 34 strieouts and a eight double plays grounded into, which is one fewer GIDP than he has walks in that period at Turner Field.
His average with runners in scoring position is down to .196 in 107 at-bats, more at-bats than anyone else on the team (Teixeira, with 102, and McCann, with 95, are the only other Braves with as many as 70 at-bats with RISP).
Chipper Jones has the same number of hits (21) with runners in scoring position as Francoeur, but in 40 fewer at-bats. And that doesn’t include Chipper’s 28 walks in those situations (he has a .313 average and .505 OBP with RISP).
Francoeur has struck out or grounded into a double play in 31 of 107 at-bats with RISP.
On a positive note, today’s a day game, and he’s hit tons better in day games than at night (that’s baseball-insider term, “tons better.”)
Francoeur has hit .297 with five homers, 19 RBIs and an .859 OPS in 30 day games, compared to .202 with with four homers, 25 RBIs and a .559 OPS in 62 nigh games.
The Braves are 17-14 in day games and 29-37 at night.
Teixeira, by the way, absolutely rakes in day games, with a .366 average, 10 homers, 38 RBIs and a huge 1.230 OPS in 30 day games. In other words, he hits like a $22-23 mill-a-year player in day games.
So maybe the Cubs should give him a contract like that.
Oh, wait, they’ve got Derrek Lee.
In 59 night games, by the way, Teixeira has hit .229 with seven homers, 31 RBIs and a .689 OPS.
Tex’s .367 slugging percentage in night games is 10 points higher than Mark Kotsay’s, 199 points lower than McCann’s (.566) and 266 points lower than Chipper’s (.635).
Streak ends quietly: I forgot to mention last week that Jair Jurrjens’ remarkable home winning streak ended. So now’s a good time to mention it, since he has a new and unwelcome home streak - consecutive losses after last night’s defeat.
In his first 13 home starts for Detroit and Atlanta, Jurrjens was 7-0 with a 3.31 ERA, and his teams were 13-0 in those games. Yes, 13-0.
But he’s lost both his July home starts, going 0-2 with a 6.08 ERA in those games against the Phillies and Nationals. The Braves scored a total of one run while he was in those games.
Other home news that’s not good: Remember when the Braves had the best home record in baseball, when they couldn’t lose at home? It wasn’t that long ago, but it sure seems that way.
The Bravos are 6-11 with a .243 average and 4.56 ERA in their past 17 home games.
Etc.: Don’t look now, but Chipper’s lead in the batting race has shrunk from an absurdly wide gulf to a still-sizeable 15 points. He’s hitting .374 entering today, while hard-charging Albert Pujols is at .359…. Francoeur went 3-for-5 with two homers and seven RBI in an April 12 game at Washington. In his other nine games against the Nats, he’s 5-for-31 (.161) with no extra-base hits and two RBI…. The Braves swept three-game series from Cincinnati and San Diego to begin May, going 6-0 with a .333 average and 2.67 ERA in that span. Since then they are 28-36 with a .253 average, 3.90 ERA and a 4.1 scoring average. And since June 28, they are 6-10 with a .230 average and 4.35 ERA.
A tune: Game’s starting, so got to get this posted. Been listening to the expanded, remastered two-disc set of Whiskeytown’s seminal album Strangers Almanac and can’t get some songs out of my head. By the way, the new CD by The Hold Steady is as good as any I’ve bought this year, and their best to date. Oh, and for me, the movie The Dark Knight lived up to the billing — and then some. Terrific movie.
And finally, do any of you get that same liberating feeling I get sometimes when you hit the delete key on a certain phone number in your cell, sometimes when you’ve waited too long before finally doing it? Nothing quite like that feeling.
”TURN AROUND” by Ryan Adams (Whiskeytown)
Want to cross
But I don’t think I can
It’s too weak here
Even where I stand
Come here darling
Let me see you hold my hand
So we can mend your broken halo
All I want from you
Well all I want from you
Is for you to turn around
Turn around
Wanted to damage
So I damaged it some
We used to have it all
Now I just got some
The silence, perfections, mysteries
All easy to fall from your lips
All the while lies were told to me
In shapeless secrets
When all I want from you
All I want from you
Is for you to turn around
Turn around
Turn around
Turn around
Can’t you turn around
Can’t you turn around
Can’t you turn around
Why can’t you turn around?
Turn around
Turn around
Turn around
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