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Friday, July 11, 2008
Are Braves to be buyers or sellers?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
With the July 31 trade deadline looming, and the Braves’ division-title chances diminishing with every series lost, and contending teams eager to know exactly who’s available from non-contenders … yeah, this could be a big weekend of determination for Los Bravos.
Yes, their series that starts tonight in San Diego could determine the course of the rest of the Braves’ season and beyond. These three games could ultimately decide whether they keep Mark Teixeira and Will Ohman and add another piece or two to try and make a run at the title in a not-very-overwhelming division.
Or whether they, for the first time in a long time, throw up the white flag on this season, get some young talent back for Teixeira (and perhaps Ohman), and watch the three teams ahead of them fight it out for what once, not long ago, seemed a birthright for the Braves and their fans - the division title.
Of course, there’s also a pretty good chance the Braves could win just two out of three this weekend, and remain 6-1/2 games out of first place, or perhaps 5-1/2 out — albeit with three teams ahead of them — with 67 games to play after the break.
In which case they’re still in that difficult area, as they see it. Do you think Frank Wren, in his first year as GM, and Bobby Cox, in perhaps his next-to-last as manager, would lean toward pulling the plug on this season if they’re 5-1/2 or 6-1/2 back at the break? How ‘bout if they’re 4-1/2 back?
I really don’t know which way they’re leaning and I don’t know that they do. This weekend, to me, seems like it could be a deciding factor, but probably only if it veers sharply in one direction or the other. If the Braves sweep the Padres and gain a game or two on the division lead, I don’t think they’ll make a decision on Teixeira until at least another series or two after the break.
But if they were to lose two out of three or get swept by the lowly Padres, who’ve lost 10 of their past 11 home games, and dropped 17 of their past 22 games overall … well, then all bets are off.
In that event, the Braves would probably be heating up the phone lines during the break, trying to flame the bidding war for Teixeira, who’s of course eligible for free agency after this season.
Conversely if the Braves come in to San Diego, play well and win the series, they might look at the possible return of Mike Hampton and/or Tom Glavine after the break, and the possible return of closer Rafael Soriano from his perplexing elbow issues, and decide that a piece or two might give them a very real chance to make the kind of good — not historic, just good — run that would be required to reel in the teams ahead of them in the race.
Yes, Xavier Nady has been on the radar for weeks, if not months. The Pirates outfielder has hit .320 with 24 doubles, 12 homers and 55 RBI, and his splits are as good or better against lefties (.318/.432/.530) than against righties (.320/.360./533).
Braves badly need an outfield bat to give them some more pop, particularly against lefties. And he’s one who could be had without mortgaging the farm to get him. Unlike, say, Jason Bay, who’s not only going to cost more in return because of his power numbers and affordable contract for 2009, but who also has only a .222 average and two homers and a .403 slugging percentage in 72 at-bats against lefties (he’s .310 with 15 homers and .561 slugging vs. righties).
If the Braves aim a little lower, they might make a run at someone like Cincy’s Ryan Freel, who could platoon against lefties.
Ohman’s attractive: He’s a veteran lefty who’s a free agent after the season, just like Ron Mahay last July, when the Braves got Mahay in the Teixeira deal.
Ohman has been outstanding for the Braves, and they don’t even think of trading him if they’re serious about making a run after the break. But if they decide to abort and aim for the future, he’s just behind Tex on the list of likely-to-be-traded.
He’s tied for ninth among NL relievers in opponents’ average (.200), which is stellar for a situational lefty who’s limited lefty hitters to a mere .147 average and .205 OBP. He’s only allowed one homer in 135 at-bats against all hitters.
Only four major league relievers have made more appearances than Ohman (47).
But I’m looking at next season and thinking that the Braves aren’t going to pay for both Ohman, who could get $3 mill or more per season in a multi-year deal, and Mike Gonzalez, who’ll be a fifth-year arbitration guy.
With Gonzalez’ price tag cheaper and with Gonzo being a closer option, it seems more likely to me they’d keep him. I just can’t see teams offering a bounty in a possible trade for Gonzalez so soon after Tommy John surgery.
Did we mention…. The Braves have 70 homers and a .426 slugging percentage in 2,097 at-bats against right-handers, and only 19 homers and a .382 slugging percentage in 1,066 at-bats vs. lefties.
That’s a homer every 23.3 at-bats vs. right-handers, and one every 56 at-bats vs. lefties.
The no-support matchup: Something’s gotta change tonight for either Jake Peavy or Jo-Jo Reyes. One of them has to get a little run support, doesn’t he?
Well, not necessarily. Could be a 1-0 game, of course ( Braves must cringe to think of a 1-0, or 2-1, or 3-2 game, etc., considering they’ve lost 24 consecutive one-run road games since mid-August, one stat that makes me shake my head in wonder every time I type it).
Anyway, regarding Padres ace Peavy and Braves youngster Reyes. What they have in common is a lack of run support. Big-time.
Get this: Peavy is 1-3 in his past six home starts … despite a 2.08 ERA. He’s pitched six conscutive quality starts in that stretch, including three games with no runs allowed. But the Padres have supported him with zero or one support runs while he was in five of those games.
Peavy went 0-3 in three starts against the Braves in 2006, despite twice allowing only two runs in seven innings. In each of those two games the Padres scored no runs while he was in. He didn’t face the Braves last season.
In the case of Reyes, he’s just 1-6 in his past nine starts, getting barely two support runs per nine innings pitched in that span.
He’s got a 4.50 ERA in that period, but seven of the 27 earned runs he allowed came in one five-inning start on May 23. Since then he’s posted a 3.67 ERA and five quality starts in eight game — and has a 1-5 record to show for it.
The Braves scored no runs while he was in four of his last eight starts, including no runs at all behind him during his current three-game losing skid.
By the way, Chipper Jones is 6-for-12 with three homers against Peavy, and Jeff Francoeur is 5-for-9 against the Alabama native.
The Braves have won 16 of 20 gainst the Padres, including a three-game sweep May 6-8 in Atlanta. But the Braves are coming into this streak as cold with the bats as the Padres are.
Actually, colder in the past week or so.
The Braves are just 3-8 with a .206 batting average since June 28, and they are 9-24 on the road with a .234 average since April 26.
That includes this remarkable stretch in their last four road games: 1-3 with a .163 average and 10 runs, with 12 of their 20 hits and nine of their 10 runs in that stretch coming in one game, Tuesday’s win at Dodger Stadium.
In the other three road games in that stretch, one at Toronto and two at L.A., the Braves have hit .094 (8-for-85) and scored one run, that on a homer. Staggering.
“CALIFORNIA SNOW” by Dave Alvin & Tom Russell
I’m just tryin’ to make a livin’
I’m an old man at thirty-nine
With two kids and an ex-wife
Who moved up to Riverside
I’m workin’ down on the border
Drivin’ back roads every night
Mountains east of El Cajon
North of the Tecate line.
Where the California summer sun
Will burn right through your soul
But in the winter you can freeze to death
In the California snow.
I catch the ones I’m able to
And watch the others slip away
I know some by their faces
And I even know some by name
I guess they think that we’re all
Movie stars and millionaires
I guess that they still believe
That dreams come true up here.
But I guess the weather’s warmer down in Mexico
And no one ever tells them ‘bout the California snow.
Last winter I found a man and wife
Just about daybreak
Layin’ in a frozen ditch
South of the interstate
I wrapped ‘em both in blankets
But she’d already died
The next day we sent him back alone
Across the borderline.
I don’t know where they came from
Or where they planned to go
But we carried her all night long
Through the California snow.
Sometimes when I’m alone out here
I get to thinkin’ about my life
Maybe I should go to Riverside
And try to fix things with my wife
Or maybe just get in my truck
And drive as far as I can go
Away from all the ghosts that haunt
The California snow.
Where the California summer sun
Can burn right to your soul
And in the winter you can freeze to death
In the California snow
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