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Wednesday, July 9, 2008
Tex and Holliday have things in common, including Boras
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
This isn’t directed at most of you, just those who’ve been beating the Matt Holliday drum for weeks on end. And I only bring it up because with the trade deadline just 22 days away and the Mark Teixeira speculation and rumors increasing, it’s relevant.
And that is: Seems a bit ironic that so many on this blog rip the Teixeira trade, and yet many others propose that a trade for Colorado outfielder Matt Holliday is exactly what the Braves need.
They need an outfielder with a good bat, yes, but there are reasons this doesn’t compute.
One year after the Braves traded a handful of prospects to get Teixeira and lefty Ron Mahay, and were subsequently ripped by many fans and media members despite Tex’s nearly one-RBI-a-game production in his tenure with the Braves, some would have you believe the Braves should … basically repeat themselves?
Because that’s what it would be, more or less. The Braves probably wouldn’t have to give up quite as much young talent as they gave up to get Tex and Mahay, but they’d have to give up several prospects or young players to land Holliday, provided the Rockies are even willing to trade him by July 31.
And for what? The Braves would be getting a hitter with similar stats to Teixeira, only Holliday’s put up big numbers for only about half as long as Teixeira has. They’d be getting a player who’d be under their control for the rest of this season and for 2009, just as Tex was for the rest of 2007 and 2008, who’d make more ($13.5 mill) in that second season than Tex ($12.5 mill) is getting this season.
Did we mention that Holliday is represented by the same agent as Tex? Yeah, some dude named Scott Boras. Ring a bell?
Did we mention that Holliday has played his home games at Coors Field, and that his home/road differential is quite severe? He’s hitting .368 with a .638 slugging percentage at home this season, and .313/.489 on the road.
Last season, Holliday hit .377 with 25 homers and a .723 slugging percentage at Coors, and .301 with 11 homers and a .485 slugging percentage on the road.
For his career, he’s hit .364 with 78 homers and a .659 slugging percentage in 327 games at Coors, compared to .278 with 39 homers and a .452 slugging percentage in 306 road games.
Folks, that’s a huge disparity. And Turner Field is not Coors Field, by any stretch of the imagination. It’s a pitchers’ park more than a hitters’ park.
Teixeira also benefited from playing home games in a hitters’ park (Arlington) for most o his career, but his 102 homers and .568 slugging percentage in home games and 85 homers and .489 slugging on the road isn’t anywhere near as pronounced as Holliday’s. It’s fairly typical for most hitters, actually.
Last season, Teixeira actually had slightly better power numbers on the road than at home, with 16 of his 30 homers coming in road games and a .565 road slugging percentage compared to .560 at home.
So far this season, he’s had nine homers and a .495 slugging percentage at home, and eight homers and a .490 slugging percentage on the road.
In other words, there is no question whatsoever about the “legitimacy” of Tex’s stats. They are what they are, with little or anything to do with ballpark.
Holliday is a fine hitter at home or on the road, but he’s a much scarier one at Coors Field. He’d probably adjust to whatever home park he goes to, but until he does, we won’t know that for sure, will we?
Anyway, that’s not the main part of why I question the logic. It goes back to the fact that he’d only be under control for one more season, he’s represented by the same Dark Knight that so many here have suggested the Braves should avoid at all costs, and, oh yeah, Holliday isn’t nearly the defensive player that Teixeira is.
So some of you really want the Braves to give up young talent for the second season in a row to get a guy that Boras could take to the free-agent market a little over a year later? Really?
If you ask me, the Braves should increase the payroll to $120 million next season and tell Teixeira they can afford to give him a backloaded contract in the range of six or seven years at an average of about $20 mill per season.
He’s worth that even if he’s a slow starter each season, even if he’s a bit robotic and doesn’t produce as many huge clutch hits as you’d hope someone of his big stats would. Why is he worth it? Because he’s durable as hell and he’s a Gold Glove-caliber first baseman, on top of the 30-40 homers and 120-140 RBI.
But if it goes much higher than that, you bid adieu and take the draft picks — that is, unless the team is 7-8 games back on about July 20.
In that case, I’d say if you’re the Braves, you hope, you need, to have couple of teams at the ready with trade offers, and you have them on notice that you’ll be ready to pull the trigger close to the deadline if the Braves don’t make up ground quickly in that final week.
Is that possible, to get a couple of teams with good offers, and have them wait until you know for sure whether you have any realistic shot at winning the division? I don’t know. That’s why the GM is paid a lot more than me, and why he can’t wear Chuck Taylors to work.
In case you missed it: I just filed an item about Jair Jurrjens getting NL Rookie of the Month.
Three days after being left off the All-Star team, the Curacao Kid at least got some consolation. A day after getting his ninth win with a solid performance against the Dodgers, he got the NL Rookie of the Month award. Nice couple of days.
He went 3-0 with a 1.63 ERA in four June starts, including no earned runs allowed in his last three after missing one start due to a sprained ankle. He’s 9-4 with a 3.00 ERA in 18 starts heading to the break.
Jurrjens, 22, was injured when he slipped on clubhouse steps on June 10 at Wrigley Field in Chicago, the night before his scheduled start. He returned for his next start and pitched 21-2/3 innings without surrendering an earned run during the rest of June.
As you all know, the Braves got Jurrjens and center-field prospect Gorkys Hernandez from Detroit in an offseason trade for shortstop Edgar Renteria. That’s the kind of trade that you can hang your hat on as a GM. Wow, what a steal it’s shaping up to be, as much as I like Edgar as a person and player.
They’re saying “‘Druuu…” and not “boooo…” No actually, they’re saying “Booo,” actually. The reception that Andruw Jones gets at Dodger Stadium is not something you’d wish on anyone. Seriously, it’s uncomfortable just witnessing it, so I can’t even imagine what it was must be like to be living it.
And to think, these have been relatively small crowds, in his first homestand after six weeks away for knee surgery. How rough must it have been in those last weeks before the slumping center fielder went to the DL? How rough is it going to get if he doesn’t start hitting?
I mean, he’s got another season left on that two-year, $36.2 mill contract. And it’s not like the Dodgers are going to be able to trade him if he’s hitting under .200 with no power and a strikeout every three at-bats.
Oh, well. Of all that’s gone wrong with the Braves this season, at least they haven’t had to deal with another season of Andruw on the downward slide. Or do some of you believe things would’ve been different if he’d stayed in Atlanta?
Because I don’t feel that. Not watching him flail away. He looks lost at the plate, really does. The way he did for most of last season and much of the year before.
OK, but enough about Andruw. Braves have plenty of their own worries.
Did want to bring him up, though, to point out that now, not even Dodgers or Nationals outfielders have as few homers as Braves outfielders do. Atlanta outfielders have a not-so-grand total of 18 homers. Yes, 18. Or, one fewer than pitcher-turned-outfielder Rick Ankiel has for the Cardinals.
Hard to believe, isn’t it. For so long the Braves got so many bombs from the outfielders, including 70 from Andruw and Jeff Francoeur alone in 2006.
Now, they have 18 homers with 91 games gone and 71 to play. Braves outfielders rank 13th in average (.254), 13th in OBP (.316), 14th in RBI (111) and 15th in slugging (.370).
With all due respect to Matt Diaz, his pending return ain’t the answer to that problem. And how many believe that Francoeur’s going to have a huge second half?
They need to get another outfield bat. A right-handed bat. Easier said than done, I know. But it really needs to happen.
Blanco keeps going: On a positive note, rookie Gregor Blanco continues to provide a spark in the leadoff role and slowly raises his average against lefties.
He’s 18-for-50 (.360) with seven walks in his past 12 games, including two walks and an RBI single in Tuesday night’s win. For the season, he’s hitting .276 (21-for-76) with a .375 OBP in the leadoff role.
And after hitting under .200 against lefties for much of the first half, he’s got the average up to .231 (15-for-65) with a .320 OBP against them now. Still not good, but an improvement.
Against righties, Blanco is hitting .279 (50-for-179) with a .387 OBP. Platoon, anyone?
I won’t bring up Freel’s name, because I know it makes some folks light-headed.
Day off Thursday: Bunch of the Braves are going to play golf as Mark Kotsay’s guests at The Bridges, an exclusive club near San Diego.
By the way, Kotsay’s three-hit game Tuesday was a big sigh of relief for him and the Braves. After missing five weeks with his back troubles, it’s taken him a week to get back in the swing of things.
He was 1-for-17 in five games before that 3-for-4 outburst last night.
Oh, and the San Diego series won’t be an easy one for the Braves, with Jake Peavy and Greg Maddux scheduled to pitch the first two games. At least they don’t have to face Peavy in the last game before the break - the Braves get the far less formidable veteran Randy Wolf (5-8, 4.59) on Sunday.
Chipper, for those who might have forgotten, does quite well against Peavy. Hoss is 6-for-12 with three homers off the ace from Alabama. Oh, and Francoeur is 4-for-9 against him.
You think the Braves have struggled lately? Talk to the Padres, who’ve lost 16 of their past 21 games.
Gonzo in a groove: It’s early to jump to conclusions, but Mike Gonzalez appears to be rounding back into game shape quickly, wouldn’t you say?
After giving up three runs (two earned), three hits and a homer in his second appearance back from the DL, the lefty has allowed one hit and no walks with 11 strikeouts in 6-2/3 innings over his past six outings, including give straight perfect appearances.
He got two strikeouts last night to get the Braves out of the ugliness that Julian Tavarez constructed in Tavarez’s Braves debut (and if Tavarez doesn’t have more than he showed last night, he won’t be around long).
I went back to Gonzalez’s Pittsburgh days, when he moved into the closer role late in the 2005 season. Check out his eye-popping stats since Sept. 7, 2005:
92 games, 1.72 ERA, 30-for-30 saves, 94 innings, 66 hits, 18 earned runs, 2 homers, 47 walks, 111 strikeouts, .196 opponents’ average.
Wow.
In eight games since returning from his 12-1/2-month rehab for Tommy John surgery, Gonzalez has allowed a .129 opponents’ average with 13 strikeouts, no walks and four hits in 31 at-bats.
Right-handers are 3-for-23 (.130) against him, with nine strikeouts. Lefties are 1-for-8 with four strikeouts.
In five night games, he’s given up nothing — no hits, no walks, six strikeouts in 4-2/3 innings.
”CALIFORNIA COTTONFIELDS” by Merle Haggard
My driftin’ memory goes back to the spring of ‘43,
When I was just a child in momma’s arms.
My daddy plowed the ground and hoped that someday we could leave
This run-down mortgaged Oklahoma farm.
And then one night I heard my daddy sayin’ to my momma
That he’d finally saved enough to go.
California was his dream of paradise, for he had seen
Pictures in magazines that told him so.
California cottonfields,
Where labor camps were filled with worried men with broken dreams.
California cottonfields,
As close to wealth as daddy ever came.
Almost everything we had was sold or left behind,
From my daddy’s plow to the soup that momma canned.
Some folks came to say farewell or see what all we had to sell;
Some just came to shake my daddy’s hand.
Yeah the model A was loaded down and California bound,
And a change of luck was just four days away.
But the only change that I remember seeing for my daddy
Was when his dark hair turned to silver grey.
California cottonfields,
Where labor camps were filled with worried men with broken dreams.
California cottonfields,
As close to wealth as daddy ever came.
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