AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2008 > July > 01
Tuesday, July 1, 2008
Phillies happy to see Braves, Turner Field
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Whenever the Phillies need a pick-me-up, they know where to go. Turner Field has been like a second home for them in recent years — without as many boos as they hear whenever things go sideways in Philadelphia.
The National League East leaders came in lugging cold bats, but the Phillies warmed up quickly with five runs in the first two innings against rookie Charlie Morton during an 8-3 series-opening win.
The fourth-place Braves went 1-for-15 with runners in scoring position and lost for the sixth time in seven games against the Phillies this season, falling to five games behind the division leaders.
“We got our butts beat tonight,” said third baseman Chipper Jones, who returned to the lineup after missing eight starts with a quadriceps injury. He went 1-for-3 with two walks as his majors-best average dropped a point to .393.
The Phillies had been 2-9 with a .191 batting average since June 17, but you’d have never known they way they hit Tuesday. They pounded out 14 hits including homers by Pat Burrell and Shane Victorino, who had four RBIs.
Morton (1-2) surrendered five runs and eight hits and was replaced after giving up six consecutive hits to start the third inning.
“Mort just wasn’t sharp tonight — at all,” Cox said of the hard-throwing right-hander, who had not allowed a homer in 98 innings this season - minor and major leagues — before giving up shots to Pat Burrell in the second inning and a two-run shot to Braves nemesis Shane Victorino in the third.
“It’s only his fourth start, and his first one that wasn’t good,” Cox said.
For the Phillies, it was their 19th win in 28 games at Turner Field, where they’ve won seven of their past nine series.
Morton said his arm lacked zip, but not because he’s already pitched as many innings as he did last season.
“That was as bad as my arm’s felt in a couple of years, in terms of life on the ball,” said the right-hander, who had one walk and one strikeout. “I don’t feel tired in any way. I just had no life whatsoever on my pitches.”
Braves have dropped eight of their past 12 at Turner Field since a 23-5 home surge that briefly gave them the best home record in baseball.
The Phillies have held onto first place in the NL East despite losing six consecutive series since their sweep of the Braves at Turner Field June 6-8.
“They’ve got a great lineup,” Cox said. “We know they were cold, but if you’re not sharp with your pitches, you’re going to give up runs against anybody.”
Victorino has become an unlikely Braves nemesis. Nine of his 22 RBIs this season are against the Braves, and two of his three homers. He’s hit .377 with three triples, four homers and 12 RBIs in his past 13 games against the Braves.
The Braves had chances early, but failed repeatedly.
They went 0-for-5 with runners in scoring position in the first two innings, and 0-for-11 before pinch-hitter Greg Norton’s two-run double in the seventh. That cut the lead to 5-2 and chased starter Kyle Kendrick (8-3) from the game.
The Braves got another run in the inning when second baseman Chase Utley bobbled Mark Teixeira’s bases-loaded grounder and had to settle for one out.
After the Utley mistake, lefty reliever J.C. Romero escaped further damage when Brian McCann grounded out. The Braves stranded at least one runner in scoring position in six of the first seven innings.
“Everybody was optimistic that we were going to come back,” Norton said. “We just didn’t push enough across, and they kept piling on.”
The Phillies added three runs in the ninth off Blaine Boyer to quash any lingering hopes of a Braves rally.
“We really need to get on that guy,” Johnson said of Kendrick, who is 3-0 in five starts against Atlanta. “We had a chance to score runs early and get an early lead, and we didn’t - again. It’s a little bit baffling.”
Permalink | |
Braves’ one-run record: historically awful
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
We’re expecting Chipper Jones to go on the 15-day disabled list this afternoon, which is obviously bad news for the Braves, who don’t win nearly as frequently without their best hitter in the lineup.
But with or without Chipper, this much we know: The Braves can’t do much worse in one-run games.
Terrible. Wretched. Inexplicable. Unfathomable.
We’ve used many adjectives to describe the Braves’ 4-21 record in one-run games, but here’s another we can add if this continues: Historic.
This we now know, after exhaustive research - and/or a hunch and a clue about using sortable stats - from loyal reader Adam Ganz, who sent me an e-mail that included a stunning bit of information.
Since 1901, major league ballclubs have played 2,212 team seasons (actually 2,182 plus 30 currently underway), and none of those teams have ever finished with as bad a winning percentage in one-run games as the Braves have today.
To repeat, not one team. Since the turn of the last century. No team has been this awful in one-run games.
That’s staggering, folks. There have been some very terrible 100-loss-and-more teams in that stretch, and none of them ever lost a higher percentage of its one-run games than this Braves team has lost so far.
Really, not many have been even close.
The Braves’ current winning percentage in one-run games is .160. They could seriously threaten the current “record,” if you want to call it that, of .184 by, coincidentally, the 1935 Boston Braves.
That Boston team went 7-31 in one-run games. Those Braves were 38-115. A 40-year-old Babe Ruth hit .181 for them in 28 games before hanging it up.
No other team since 1901 has even approached anything as low as a .200 winning percentage in one-run games. In fact, the 1937 St. Louis Browns (10-31, .244) were the only other team - out of nearly 2,000 in more than a century — to win fewer than a quarter of their one-run games. They were 46-108 overall.
The best winning percentages in one-run games belong to the 1981 Baltimore Orioles, who were 21-7 (.750) in one-run games and 59-46 overall in a strike-shortened season, and the 1908 Pittsburgh Pirates, who went 33-12 (.733) in one-run games and 98-56 overall.
In the past 50 years, the worst winning percentage in one-run games was .256 by the 1999 Kansas City Royals, who went 11-32 in those games. That was tied for third-worst on the list since 1901. Unlike those other two 1930s teams, the ’99 Royals weren’t a terrible team. They were 64-97 overall. OK, they were terrible.
They are tied for third on the dubious one-run list with Connie Mack’s 1916 Philadelphia Athletics, who, on the other hand, were godawful. That team was 11-32 in one run games, and 36-117 overall.
Of the modern era, the next-worst winning percentage after the ’99 Royals belonged to the 1975 Houston Astros, who were 16-41 (.281) in one-run games and 64-97 overall.
Do we sense a pattern here? The worst records in one-run games belong to really bad teams. Teams that lose close to 100 games, and in some cases many more.
And that’s what is so very unusual about this Braves team, which is 40-43 — not good, but not historically bad like the company it could join in one-run infamy.
They are 4-21 in one-run games, and 36-22 in all other games. You can look at it a couple of ways: They are due to win about eight of their next 10 one-run games and restore something approaching normalcy to their one-run record, or they are psychologically scarred at this point and expect to lose when games are tight late.
Or, of course, it could fall somewhere in the gray area between those two extremes. But gray areas aren’t big in blog discussions, much like the black-and-white world of talk radio.
However you want to look at it, the Braves are more than halfway through the season, and they are on pace to do something no team has ever done, finish with a winning percentage below .180 in one-run games.
Will they do that? Probably not. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if they went, say, 10-10 the rest of the way in one-run games. But even that would make them just 14-31 and leave them with about the 30th worst winning percentage of 2,212 teams since 1901.
That’s how bad they are right now in the closest games, folks. That’s the hole they’ve dug for themselves in that category, and it’s disturbing for the Braves. I mean, if they were a mere 12-13 in one-run games, they’d be 48-35 and leading the NL East by four games.
That’s stunning, isn’t it?
Obviously the injuries to closer Rafael Soriano and setup man Peter Moylan played a part in the Braves’ struggles in one-run games, as they tried almost any and everyone in save situations for the first two months.
But they’ve also had several key hitters struggle mightily in clutch situations, including Jeff Francoeur with runners in scoring position, Yunel Escobar in late-and-close situations, etc. For most of the first six weeks, Mark Teixeira struggled to produce critical hits.
It’s a combination of things, and it played into the team psyche, I believe.
I’ve said since those first few weeks of the season, when you lose so many one-run games early, young players (and perhaps some veterans, too) start to believe their team’s cursed or they wonder when something bad’s going to happen. They play not to lose, instead of being aggressive and playing to win.
The Braves need a surge in one-run games, to push away this black cloud. Otherwise they’re going to keep getting questions about their one-run struggles, including the remarkable major league record they’ve set of 23 (and counting) consecutive one-run road losses dating to last August.
This is not stuff that playoff teams are asked about. This is stuff that really bad teams have to deal with.
Until the Braves get rid of that stigma, that stain, it can only serve to undermine whatever chances they have of putting together a second-half run and overtaking the four teams ahead of them in the NL East standings.
Right now, they’ve got 2,211 teams ahead of them in the one-run record standings since 1901, and not a single team behind them.
By the way, here’s a link to the one-run records.
And here’s a link to a study/story that Bill James wrote about performance in one-run games for Diamond Mind Baseball about six years ago, including a section about Bobby Cox near the bottom of the story.
But enough discussion of woes, for now. We need a tune by a master to finish this off.
If you haven’t heard Alejandro Escovedo’s new album Real Animal, it’s terrific, including a duet with Bruce Springsteen called “Always a Friend.” In fact, I think I’ll have the The Rude Awakening fellas play that tomorrow on our Wednesday morning spot on 680 The Fan (they ask me for a song to play as an intro or whatever, which is pretty cool of them).
This song isn’t on it. Or by him. But it’s great.
”OFF AND RUNNING” by James McMurtry
Answer me when I call to you
What became of the life I knew
Tell me why I can’t be free
Tell me what you expect of me
I’m so down about it
I can’t sleep at night
I sit watching the bugs
As they bounce off the light
Answer me when I’m calling out
Tell me what’s all the noise about
Explain to me the rules of love
Tell me just what I’m guilty of
I somehow I must’ve missed it
I never knew I was blind
Repeat it real slow
So I get it this time
I’m off and running to take what’s mine
I’m off and running again
I ‘m off and running
To take what’s mine
I’m off and running
And I won’t get caught this time
With my soul on empty
And my face to the wind
I’m off and running
I’m off and running again
Answer me when I call your name
What’d you do with my ball and chain?
I’m out here in the open air
And I can’t find it anywhere
And I’m so lost without it
It was such a part of me
I guess I’ll get along
How hard can it be?
.JPG)
-1.JPG)
Services »
