AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2008 > June > 20
Friday, June 20, 2008
Road disaster averted, now Braves need to make hay
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
The Braves return from the road having avoided a disaster the trip threatened to become after the sweep at Wrigley Field started the four-city trek across America.
But 4-6 trips are not going to reel in the Phillies, especially since the Braves’ Turner Field magic began to (predictably) wear off on the last homestand. Nobody thought they were going to win four of every five at home all season, did they?
Anyway, now is the time to make a bit of hay for the Bravos, who have the reeling Mariners in town for a three-game series starting tonight. The Mariners, who fired their GM last week, then fired their manager a couple days ago.
The Mariners, who are 14-37 with a 4.97 ERA and 3.5 runs per game since April 23, and a 6-18 record and 5.46 ERA in their past 24 road games.
Bottom line, Braves need to sweep the series to assure a solid six-game homestand, because Milwaukee comes in next week to finish the homestand, and the Brewers are starting to hit their stride, currently on a 16-6 roll.
But let’s not kid ourselves into thinking a sweep of the Mariners will be easy. Not with Erik Bedard going tonight. Not only is the former Baltimore ace better than his record (4-4 indicates), but he’s a lefty.
And the Braves have struggled mightily against plenty of lesser lefties, which is part of the reason you hear them increasingly connected to trade rumors. From people I talk to and trust, the Randy Winn rumor last week was unfounded; Braves aren’t interested in an outfielder who makes $8 mill, hits for little power and doesn’t throw well.
But the Ryan Freel rumor might - repeat, might — have some legs. Freel makes less than half of what Winn makes and can play a solid center field, which has some attraction for a Braves team that simply doesn’t know what it’s going to get from sore-backed Mark Kotsay the rest of the way.
Braves rookie OF Gregor Blanco has been solid on many counts, but the speedster is hitting just .179 against lefties with 15 strikeouts in 39 at-bats, and he’s a team-worst 9-for-45 (.200) with runners in scoring position. (He’s hit .281 with a .391 OBP in 135 at-bats against righties.)
Freel is hitting .339 (21-for-62) against lefties with six doubles, four walks, seven strikeouts and a .388 OBP and .435 slugging percentage.
No, I don’t like the way Freel leaps for every ball when a more controlled approach would benefit him on some plays. And he has little power. But dude does play with a fire. And, hey, he’s hitting .298 overall, including .356 with runners on base and .423 (11-for-26) with runners in scoring position.
From the leadoff spot, he’s hitting .301 with a .363 OBP in 83 at-bats this season. And not getting as much playing time as he wants, which he’s said publicly. Reds might even pick up a bit of his modest salary in a trade.
The lefty thing: While the Braves’ batting average vs. lefties is a middle-of-the-road .269 (seventh in the NL), what’s more reflective and telling is their on-base percentage against lefties, a meager .339, 11th in the NL. And even worse, their anemic .378 slugging against lefties, 14th in the league, ahead of only the Nats and Padres.
The Braves clearly need another right-handed bat, and soon.
Against righties, the Braves are as strong as any team in the NL. They rank second in average (.273), first in OBP (.353), and second in slugging (.443, a whopping 65 points better than their slugging percentage vs. lefties).
Why are they so much worse against lefties than we expected they’d be entering the season? Well, start with the cleanup hitter and the right fielder. Mark Teixeira is batting just .216 (21-for-96) with six extra-base hits and a .667 OPS in 97 at-bats vs. lefties, compared to .294 with 20 extra-base hits and an .863 OPS in 177 at-bats vs. righties.
This is particularly odd given that the switch-hitting Teixeira has hit lefties better than righties in the past. Last season he batted .357 with a 1.000 OPS vs. lefties, and .282 with a .946 OPS vs. righties.
In 2006, he hit .302 with a .977 vs. lefties, and .275 with an .853 OPS vs. righties.
Good luck trying to figure that one out.
Meanwhile, the increasingly maligned Jeff Francoeur is batting just .240 with a .690 OPS in 96 at-bats against lefties, compared to .259 with a .728 OPS vs. righties.
This, too, is a big change from his previous numbers (so is Francoeur’s production with runners on, with RISP, in close-and-late, etc., but that’s another story).
In 2007, Francoeur hit .317 with an .853 OPS vs. lefties, and .281 with a .747 OPS vs. righties.
In 2006, he hit .292 with an .853 OPS vs. lefties, and .248 with a .702 OPS vs. lefties.
In his rookie half-season in 2005, Francoeur hit a jaw-dropping .379 with a 1.211 OPS vs. lefties (did he really do that?) and .272 with a .771 OPS vs. righties.
Again, trying figuring out that reversal of fortunes this season.
So that’s two key hitters the Braves count upon, both of them struggling mightily vs. lefties after hitting them appreciably better than righties in the past.
Speaking of Francoeur…. At the risk of looking like we’re piling on, Frenchy is hitting .241 with runners on base, .233 with runners in scoring position (RISP), and .222 in late-and-close situations.
Very low for a young guy who was almost always a solid clutch hitter in his first three seasons, even when his other numbers might have dipped at times.
Last season he hit .303 with runners on, .341 with RISP, .312 in late-and-close situations.
In 2006 he hit .288 with runners on, .320 with RISP, .304 in late-and-close (this in a season in which he hit just .260 overall, much like this season).
And in 2005, the rookie phenom set the bar really, really hit by hitting .321 with runners on, .338 with RISP (including .359 with two outs), and .286 in close-and-late situations.
We didn’t even mention the bases-laoded woes (he’s hitless in his last 14 at-bats with bases loaded, 2-for-18 for the season, after going 8-for-22 with bases loaded in 2007). OK, now we mentioned that, too.
Ridgway vs. Stockman: Don’t ask me why lefty Jeff Ridgway was kept instead of Phil Stockman. I, like most of you, was fairly certain that Ridgway would be the one sent down when Mike Gonzalez was activated (four lefties?)
It’s not as though Ridgway is out of options or anything. And if Stockman “needed to pitch,” then frankly I don’t understand why he couldn’t pitch at the major league level - you know, for the Braves?
The big Aussie has made 10 career appearances in the majors, four in 2006 and six this season. In those 10 appearances, Stockman has allowed five hits, one run and eight walks with 13 strikeouts in 11-1/3 innings. A 0.79 ERA and .139 opponents’ average in his big league career.
Ridgway? He’s made seven appearances in the bigs (three last season, four this season) and allowed 11 hits, nine runs, three homers and one walk with two strikeouts in 4-2/3 innings. A 17.36 RA and .440 opponnents’ average.
A tune: Rode the motorcycle over to Athens yesterday, just like to get the good vibe of that town now and again. Especially with the lads of Rapid Eye Movement in Atlanta this weekend for a big show at Lakewood on Saturday, touring behind their stellar Accelerate album.
But I want to go back a bit to one of my handful of cream-of-the-crop favorites songs of theirs.
”BEGIN THE BEGIN” by R.E.M.
Birdie in the hand for life’s rich demand
The insurgency began and you missed it
I looked for it and I found it
Miles standish proud, congratulate me
A philanderer’s tie, a murderer’s shoe
Life’s rich demand creates supply in the hand
Of the powers, the only vote that matters
Silence means security silence means approval
On Zenith, on the tv, tiger run around the tree
Follow the leader, run and turn into butter
Let’s begin again, begin the begin
Let’s begin again like Martin Luther zen
The mythology begins the begin
Answer me a question I can’t itemize
I can’t think clearly, look to me for reason
It’s not there, I can’t even rhyme here in the begin
A philanderer’s tie, a murderer’s shoe
Example: the finest example is you
Birdie in the hand for life’s rich demand
The insurgency began and you missed it
I looked for it and I found it
Miles standish proud, congratulate me
A philanderer’s tie, a murderer’s shoe
Let’s begin again, begin the begin
Lets begin again
