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Friday, June 6, 2008
Ho-hum, Hoss belts 400th while hitting over .400
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Ho-hum, Thursday was another four-hit day at the office for Chipper Jones, who punctuated the work day with his 400th home run, jointing Eddie Murray and some dude named Mickey Mantle as the only switch-hitters to accomplish that feat.
And while Murray (504 homers) and the Mick (536) are still a long way ahead of Hoss in the homer department, I’m no longer of the belief he can’t catch them. Well, at least Murray.
(Trivia note: Did you know Murray also hit his 400th in Atlanta? Off Marvin Freeman in 1992. OK, back to the blog…)
Or don’t you folks agree that Chipper could realistically hit at least 105 more homers? I mean, if he averages 20 a year after this season, he could do that by hanging on for five more seasons (assuming he gets five or more the rest of this season), and he told me he wants to play four to six more years.
I think it’s becoming pretty clear now that Chipper is headed for the Hall of Fame someday.
Now, it’s just a matter of whether he could be a first-ballot selection. What do you think it’ll take? I’m guessing that 450 homers and a plus-.300 average (he’s currently at .310) and plus-.400 OBP (he’s at .406) with, say, 1,600 RBI (he’s at 1,338) would get him in on the first ballot, or at least very close.
Oh, by the way, a batting title and another MVP award would sure help cement first-ballot status. While it’s way too early to talk MVP, especially considering the seasons that Chase Utley and Lance Berkman are having, the batting title is a reasonable goal for a guy who leads the league by more than 30 points this far into the season.
For those wondering how Chipper’s done month-by-month through his career, it’s interesting to note that his best overall offensive months have been April, July and August, and his worst have been May and June.
So that sure could bode well for a guy’s chances of hitting four hund… oh, I’m not even going to say it yet. Let’s wait a few weeks and see if he keeps that average in this stratosphere.
But career-wise, he’s hit .294 in May, .295 in June, .328 in July, .313 in August, .309 in September and .381 in just 14 October regular-season games.
He’s got a .305 career average (and .399 OBP, .538 slugging) before the All-Star break, and a .317 average (.415 OBP, .564 slugging) after the break.
Folks, if anybody’s been better situated to hit .400 since Tony Gwynn’s .394 in the strike-shortened 1994 season, then I’m not aware of who that person would be.
By the way, Chipper has identical .310 career averages against left-handers and right-handers.
Finally, does anyone realize it’s been nearly a year since U Kno Who was on the disabled list? That’s hard to believe, huh?
Since he came back from the DL last June 13 after being out with bone bruises on his hands, Chipper has hit .378 (214-for-566) with a .462 OBP and 1.084 OPS in 148 games, with 39 doubles, 3 triples, 31 homers, 114 RBIs, 92 walks and 69 strikeouts.
The Braves are 80-68 in games he’s played in that stretch, and 1-9 in games without him. That’s right, he’s played all but 10 of their 158 games since June 13.
It took him a few weeks to get his power stroke back after he got back from that last DL stint for the bruised hands. Since July 5, he’s hit .378 with 37 doubles, 30 homers, 102 RBI in 129 games, with a whopping 1.128 OPS in that span.
Jurrjens slips a bit: Reminding us that even the best rookies are still rookies, Jair Jurrjens is 1-0 with an 8.40 ERA and .406 opponents’ average in his past three starts, with 28 hits, 14 earned runs, four homers, 10 walks and 10 strikeouts in 15 innings.
This after he went 5-3 with a 2.64 ERA and .219 opponents’ average in his first 10 starts, with 50 hits, 18 earned runs, one homer, 22 walks and 45 strikeouts in 61-1/3 innings.
The Braves have scored nearly 11 runs per nine innings he’s pitched in his past three starts, which is why he’s not suffered a loss in that stretch. As much as Bobby Cox is prone to hyperbole and protecting his players, Jurrjens really did pitch better than last night’s line (6 innings, 11 hits, 5 runs) would indicated.
Not as great as Bobby said he did, mind you, but Jurrjens wasn’t as as bad as the line indicates. Lot of ground balls, some hits that found holes, some mistakes afield, etc.
Anyway, here’s the stat that still jumps out at me: Jurrjens has made 12 home starts in his career with Detroit and Atlanta, and his teams have won every one of those games. He is 7-0 with a 3.64 ERA in those 12 starts, with nearly seven support runs per nine innings.
Hey, maybe when guys love playing behind you, when you’re a pitcher who doesn’t make the defense stand on its collective heels through ponderous walk-a-thon, picking-at-the-corners innings, then just maybe that also translates to better production from those teammates when they get to bat.
Or maybe it’s just dumb luck.
Anyway, last night was the first time Jurrjens gave up more than four runs or eight hits in a home start, either with the Tigers or Braves.
Speaking of pitching stats: There’s a John Smoltz stat that always blows me away, that’s just about impossible to even wrap your brain around, and one of the few stats we didn’t include in our Smoltz package in the paper the other day after his season-ending surgery announcement.
It happened from midseason 2002 to midseason 2003, when Smoltz, then closing, went just one week shy of a full calendar year of pitching in nothing but Brave wins. Seventy-three in a row.
Yes, from June 1, 2002 to May 25, 2003, Smoltz posted a 1.42 ERA and .177 opponents’ average during a 73-appearance stretch in which the Braves were 73-0 in games when he pitched.
He was 3-0 with 60 saves converted in 62 opportunities in that stretch, while allowing just 47 hits (one homer) and 17 walks with 86 strikeouts in 76 innings. Sheer dominance.
Say what you will about Mariano Rivera as great closer of this generation, because Rivera’s postseason accomplishments have assured him of that distinction. And Trevor Hoffman’s longevity puts him in that discussion of greatest closers of our generation, too.
But for those three-plus seasons that Smoltz filled that role for the Braves, I’d have to say he was the best, most dominant closer in the game.
McCann under the radar: It’s been overshadowed by Chipper’s performance and the Smoltz saga and so much else that’s happened in the first 61 games for this Braves team, but Brian McCann is having one hell of a season.
He hit his 11th homer last night and is batting .307 with 19 doubles, 35 RBI, a .382 OBP and .574 slugging percentage in 56 games. Oh, and lest we not forget the amazing triple by the spry youngster.
I went back to see how this start compared to McCann’s performane through the same point in 2006, when in his first full season he he had one of the greatest offensive seasons since Johnny Bench by any catcher not named Piazza.
McCann finished that season at .333 with 34 doubles, 24 homers and 93 RBI, with a .388 OBP and .572 slugging percentage.
Through June 5 that season, he hit .347 with 10 doubles, five homers and 21 RBI in 40 games, 16 fewer than this season because of injuries. He had a .399 OBP (17 points higher than this season) and a .554 slugging percentage (20 lower).
It’ll be interesting to see how McCann holds up through the hot summer, because this is the healthiest he’s been in a long time and he could be on the way to a huge season to compare with that 2005 performance, which I frankly didn’t know if he’d ever be able to match.
Regardless, he’s certainly headed to his third All-Star Game in his third full season, which is pretty special.
Rock ‘n’ roll movies: Thought I’d bring this subject over from a late comment on the last blog, where I was asked whether I’d seen the movie The Commitments, and it was pointed out how the movie showed behind-the-scenes stuff that goes on in bands, conflicts that can fracture a group or whatever.
Yes, of course I’ve seen the movie (I’m of Irish and Scottish descent, after all). But if you want to see the things that can divide a band, you should rent two movies that show it actually happening, and in excruciating detail: Dig, an outstanding documentary that follows the very different fortunes of two bands that came along at same time — The Dandy Warhols, who had a couple of big hits, and the very talented but self-destructive Brian Jonestown Massacre (who have a huge cult following still, and are still putting out CDs).
Great movie. Not good, great.
And the other is the Metallica doc Some Kind of Monster. It’s hard to watch at times, they do so much bickering. But it’s utterly fascinating. And if you like the band at all, or even as long as you don’t actively dislike them and just like rock music in general, you really must see the movie.
“WILLIE, WAYLON AND ME” by David Alan Coe
I’d heard the Burritos out in California
could fly higher than The Byrds
Roger McQuinn had a 12 string guitar.
It was like nothing I’d ever heard
And the Eagles flew in from the west coast
Like the Byrds they were trying to be free
While in Texas the talk turned to Outlaws
Like Willie and Waylon and me.
Hey!
Well somewhere Texas music is in the make
And we’ve been making music that is free
Doing one night stands and playing with our bands
Willie, Waylon and me
Oh Mad Dog! go to lead
They say the Beatles were just the beginning
of everything music could be
Just like the Stones I was rolling a lone
Like a ship lost out on the sea
And Joplin would die for the future
And Dylan would write poetry
And in Texas the talk turned to Outlaws
Like Willie and Waylon and me
Hey!
My name is David Alan Coe and I’m from Dallas, Texas.
They say Texas music is in the make
And we’ve been making music that is free
Doing one night stands and playing with our bands
Willie, Waylon and me
Big Jim!
I’d heard the Burritos out in California
could fly higher than the Byrds
Roger McQuinn had a 12 string guitar.
It was like nothing I’d ever heard
And the Eagles flew in from the west coast
Like the Byrds they were trying to be free
While in Texas the talk turned to Outlaws
Like Willie and Waylon and me.
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