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Tuesday, May 6, 2008
Best at home, worst on the road
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
With all due respect to the reunion of the Big Three this week at Turner Field, we’re going to focus on a couple of other unprecedented and/or highly improbable trends and occurrences related to this Braves team.
First of all, do you realize the Braves have the best home record (11-4) in the National League and the worst road record (4-11) in all of major league baseball? Well, they do.
They’ve got three more home games before we venture back out on that cruel road. Not only that, those three home games are against the San Diego Padres, losers of 14 of their past 18 games, and those three don’t include a matchup with Padres ace Jake Peavy.
Braves have a legitimate chance to sweep an entire homestand, though it’s hardly a lock of a proposition, given that Padres starters Chris Young and Randy Wolf both take sub-4.00 ERAs into matchups tonight (Young vs. the Curacao Kid, Jair Jurrjens) and Wednesday (Wolf vs. Mr. Recent Consistency, Tim Hudson).
Still, it’s a legit shot at going 6-0 on a homestand, which would certainly provide a bit of balm to the recent rash of woes that were casting a pall over the Braves’ season before we even reached the one-fifth pole (just a reminder, tonight is game No. 31 in a 162-game season).
But this home/road dichotomy obviously can’t continue, if the Braves hope to contend with Philly and the rest of the NL East through the summer and fall. Because I’m gonna go out out on a limb and predict the Braves aren’t going to win 11 of every 15 home games the rest of the season.
So they’d best start winning a lot more on the road. No better place to begin that Pennsylvania, where they will fly into the middle of a heated NHL playoff series (Flyers vs. Penguins) and try to do some damage against the lowly Pirates (12-19 overall, 6-7 at home) and not-at-all-lowly Phillies (19-14 overall, 10-8 at the bandbox of verbal abuse, Citizens Bank Park).
And before any of you get yourselves too worked up over the fact that Chase Utley beat out Chipper for NL Player of the Month, consider that Utley leads the league with 26 extra-base hits, while Chipper (15) doesn’t rank in the top 10.
And as great as Chipper’s 1.189 on base-plus-slugging percentage is, Utley’s 1.210 is even better. Those are the best two OPS totals in the majors; in fact, the top 10 are all NL players.
(Just wondering aloud, are we finally seeing signs of a balancing of the scale in terms of balance of power between the leagues? Might the NL win the All-Star Game this summer? I’m going to predict it happens, giving the NL team the home-field advantage for the World Series. I already predicted the Diamondbacks would win the World Series, and I’ll stick with that pick regardless).
Secondly, the Joneses…. OK, show of hands from those of you who would’ve predicted this back in 2005, when 28-year-old Andruw Jones was amassing a majors-leading 51 homers and league-high 128 RBI, and 33-year-old Chipper Jones was playing 109 games and hitting 21 homers with 72 RBIs?
Who would have, who could have, predicted anything even remotely close to what has transpired for those two players since then? Because today, Andruw looks likes the oldest 31-year-old “star” in the majors and Chipper looks like one of the best 36-year-old hitters in recent memory.
Andruw Jones has followed up the worst season of his career in 2007 with an even worse start to the 2008 season, and Chipper has followed up one of the best seasons of his career in 2007 with an even hotter start to the 2008 season.
Andruw, in the first season of a two-year, $36.2 mill contract with the Dodgers, is batting .158 (16-for-101) with six extra-base hits (one homer), four RBI, 34 strikeouts, a .267 OBP and a .248 slugging percentage (.515 OPS).
A year ago through May 5, Jones was hitting .235 with 14 extra-base hits (five homers) and 20 RBIs in 29 games, with a .375 OBP and .846 OPS. I’m guessing the Dodgers would kill to have such numbers from the center fielder today.
Andruw is a majors-worst 1-for-25 (.040) with runners in scoring position, and a league-worst 4-for-48 (.083) with runners on base.
He’s hitting an unfathomable .138 (9-for-65) with no RBI and 25 strikeouts against right-handers. In other words, he’s hitting about like most pitchers hit against right-handers.
Andruw hit a home run against the Braves on April 19 at Turner Field, and many believed that might start a bit of a resurgence for the longtime former Brave.
It has not. To say the least.
Since that day he’s 6-for-46 (.130) with one double, one RBI, 16 strikeouts, and a couple of benchings.
Chipper Jones, meanwhile, is off to such a torrid start that we’re all left to wonder just what he might be capable of if he plays 145-150 games. It’s not a stretch to say that, when healthy, he’s been the majors’ best all-around hitter for the past couple of years.
“He killed us,” Reds manager Dusty Baker said Sunday, after Hoss went 3-for-6 with a homer and five RBI in the series finale and 7-for-13 in the series. “He’s always been a great hitter. Now, he looks like the best hitter on earth. That’s a sweet stroke he’s got going.”
Kelly Johnson told me that if Jones played in Boston or New York, he’d be on the cover of every national magazine, the toast of the town, compared to the greats to play the game, etc. I didn’t disagree.
The man is hitting .425 more than a month into the season, a mere 59-point lead over the next-highest average in the majors, Rafael Furcal’s .366 (Utley is at .362).
Jones leads the Braves with nine homers and 27 RBIs, not to mention his .472 OBP and .717 slugging percentage. He’s hitting .400 against lefties, and .438 with an absurd .849 slugging percentage against righties.
He’s hitting .467 (28-for-60) with a 1.231 OPS at home in a park that’s considered to be favorable for pitchers.
He is hitting .500 (28-for-56) with runners on base, and .385 with a .500 OBP with runners in scoring position.
He is on fire.
In 18 games since April 12, Chipper is 32-for-70 (.457) with eight homers, 18 RBI, 10 walks and a 1.390 OPS. He’s struck out just five times in that span.
Going back to Sept. 5, the Braves are 20-6 in their past 26 home games.
Chipper has played in all of those games and batted .446 (45-for-101) with seven homers, 28 runs, 30 RBI and a .504 on-base percentage.
He leads the majors with a .341 average since the beginning of the 2006 season, ahead of Ichiro Suzuki (.331) and Derek Jeter (.331).
But this is the one I keep going back to, the hitting line that just demands to be read again a couple of times, because it frankly doesn’t seem possible.
Chipper really started to get hot in late June 2006, after a slump earlier that month. Since June 24, 2006, here’s what he’s done, in bold for emphasis:
In 213 games, he’s hit .361 (294-for-815) with 64 doubles, 6 triples, 57 homers, 180 RBI, 120 walks, 108 strikeouts, a .439 OBP, a .664 slugging percentage, and a 1.103 OPS.
The Braves are 118-95 in that span in games Chipper has played, and 29-38 in games he has not. Therein lies the knock on Chipper, of course. He had DL stints, though none this season.
Out of curiosity, I thought about Kelly Johnson’s comment and decided to see how a few Red Sox and Yankee stars have done in that same period.
Since June 24, 2006, Manny Ramirez has played 229 games and hit .312 with 62 doubles, 2 triples, 41 homers, 163 RBI, .407 OBP, .542 slugging, .949 OPS.
David Ortiz has played 259 games in that span and hit .311 with 72 doubles, 3 triples, 74 homers, 216 RBI, .432 OBP, .624 slugging, 1.056 OPS.
Alex Rodriguez has played 267 games and hit .305 with 53 doubles, 78 homers, 236 RBI, .404 OBP, .596 slugging, 1.000 OPS.
And for those who might be wondering: Andruw Jones in that period has played 268 games and hit .220 (212-for-963) with 47 doubles, 3 triples, 50 homers, 163 RBI, 142 walks, 238 strikeouts, .327 OBP, .431 slugging, .758 OPS.
Kotsay on a roll: The Braves haven’t seen as many lefties lately, and that’s helped Mark Kotsay keep his batting average in a steady ascent, now up to .301 overall. He’s hit .377 (20-for-53) with five extra-base hits and nine RBI in his past 14 games.
For the season, he’s hit .171 (7-for-41) vs. lefties and .387 (24-for-62) against righties.
By the way, Kotsay is 0-for-12 against tonight’s starter, Chris Young.
Etc.: Braves really might want to be careful this time around with San Diego’s Tony Clark, the former Arizona slugger who has a .429 average and amazing six homers in just 28 at-bats against the Braves over the past three seasons…. Padres 1B Adrian Gonzalez has hit .386 with seven homers in 70 road at-bats…. Tim Hudson is 3-0 with a 1.66 ERA in three home starts. Gonzalez is 5-for-8 with two homers against him…. Matt Diaz is hitting .405 (17-for-42) at home, second to Chipper among Braves. He’s hit .204 on the road.
OK, how ‘bout a tune? For the woman who took our old dog Larry to freakin’ New Jersey, along with half the wedding pictures. (Hey, been a few years now, can smile about it. Sometimes.)
“YOU’RE A BIG GIRL NOW” by Bob Dylan
Our conversation was short and sweet
It nearly swept me off-a my feet.
And I’m back in the rain, oh, oh,
And you are on dry land.
You made it there somehow
You’re a big girl now.
Bird on the horizon, sittin’ on a fence,
He’s singin’ his song for me at his own expense.
And I’m just like that bird, oh, oh,
Singin’ just for you.
I hope that you can hear,
Hear me singin’ through these tears.
Time is a jet plane, it moves too fast
Oh, but what a shame if all we’ve shared can’t last.
I can change, I swear, oh, oh,
See what you can do.
I can make it through,
You can make it too.
Love is so simple, to quote a phrase,
You’ve known it all the time, I’m learnin’ it these days.
Oh, I know where I can find you, oh, oh,
In somebody’s room.
It’s a price I have to pay
You’re a big girl all the way.
A change in the weather is known to be extreme
But what’s the sense of changing horses in midstream?
I’m going out of my mind, oh, oh,
With a pain that stops and starts
Like a corkscrew to my heart
Ever since we’ve been apart.
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