AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2008 > April > 29
Tuesday, April 29, 2008
Hey, the Braves have done it before….
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
With less than one-sixth of the 162-game baseball scheduled completed, and the Braves sitting 1-1/2 games behind New York and Philly in the NL East, a segment of the Braves-rooting populace is already writing off 2008 and looking to 2009.
Either that segment is very pessimistic or can’t remember way back to the early part of the century — yes, the 21st century.
The current Braves team is 12-13, with a strong lineup, a good bullpen that could be very good if Rafael Soriano gets healthy (Peter Moylan is likely done for the season, so I’m not really considering him).
The rotation? Questions have to be answered, obviously. But the rotation can be outstanding if John Smoltz and Tom Glavine can pitch 30 or so times and Tim Hudson can win 14-17 games. It can still be good if Smoltz has a few stints on the DL and pitches only about 20 times, if Mike Hampton can give the Braves something along the lines of 12-20 starts (stop laughing; it’s possible).
If Smoltz’s shoulder problem is serious (he’ll be checked later today) and prevents him from having a productive season, then the Braves’ rotation will obviously need strong seasons from Hudson, Glavine and Jurrjens, and something decent from Hampton and/or Chuck James, Jeff Bennett or someone else.
But even in that scenario, they can still have an adequate rotation, believe it or not, and they have trade pieces to make a move this summer in whatever area they need to reinforce most, provided they’re in contention.
Now, getting back to the history lesson, for those who seem to be either dismissive of the recent past, or simply forgot or choose not to acknowledge it.
In 2001: The Braves were 12-14 at the end of April and 17-21 on May 13, with a .239 batting average and 4.09 ERA. They finished 88-74 and won the NL East by two games over Philly (86-76) and six over the Mets (82-80).
The Braves’ top starters that year were Greg Maddux (17-11, 3.05), Glavine (16-7, 3.57), John Burkett (12-12, 3.04), Kevin Millwood (7-7, 4.31), Odalis Perez (6-6, 4.57) and Jason Marquis (4-6, 3.26).
In 2002: The Braves were 12-15 at the end of April, with a .241 batting average and 3.60 ERA. They went 89-44 the rest of the way to win the division by 19 games over Montreal.
The Braves’ top starters that season were Maddux (16-6, 2.62), Glavine (18-11, 2.96), Millwood (17-8, 3.25), Damian Moss (12-6, 3.50) and Jason Marquis (8-9, 5.04). In fact, no other starter won a game that season.
(Reminds us what having three strong starters who give you 200 or more innings can do, not to mention a fourth who’s as good as Moss was that season. Five good starters? That’s a luxury few teams have, even teams as good as this one was. Marquis only pitched 114 innings in 22 starts that season).
In 2004: The Braves were 13-14 at the end of April, with a .262 batting average and 4.32 ERA. They went 83-51 the rest of the way, hitting .271 with a 3.62 ERA in those last 134 games, and finished 96-66 to win the division by 10 games over the Phillies (86-76).
The Braves’ best starters that season were Jaret Wright (15-8, 3.28), Russ Ortiz (15-9, 4.13), John Thomson (14-8, 3.72), Mike Hampton (13-9, 4.28) and Paul Byrd (8-7, 3.94). No Cy Youngs among that crew, and Ortiz was the only one who pitched 200 innings that season. All other starters were a combined 3-8.
My point? You can win divisions with a lot of different recipes, and Bobby Cox’s teams have founds ways to do it after relatively slow starts (at least in the eyes of outsiders). That above was three times in the past seven years.
Do I think this Braves team will do it? I have no idea. Their chances are far greater if Smoltz can give them a quality season and Glavine can stay off the DL the rest of the way. But like I said, even if Smoltz were to have problems, they could still compete — as long as they’re getting contributions from the likes of Hudson, Glavine and Hampton (but we all know the latter is a mighty big “if”) or perhaps James.
The Hudson quandary: I received an interesting e-mail from J.C. Bradbury, the Kennesaw State U. economist and seamhead whiz over at sabernomics.com.
He computed the pitch speeds in Hudson’s recent starts, and disputed the assessment by Bobby Cox and Hudson that his velocity was normal Saturday at Shea, when Hudson gave up seven hits and four runs and was pulled after three innings.
“I think the Braves are being misleading,” he wrote me. “I tracked Hudson’s fastball on MLB’s Gameday, and his last start was very similar to his April 16 start against the Marlins in terms of fastball speed. On April 16 his average fastball was 88.81 MPH, and on April 26 his average fastball was 88.53 MPH. In his April 21 Washington start, his average fastball was 90.58 MPH.”
Hudson gave up six hits and four runs in just three innings of that April 16 start at Florida, and sandwiched those two three-inning outings around a 6-2/3 inning performance vs. Washington on April 21, when he gave up 10 hits and two runs (one earned).
I’ll trust his figures. Got no reason not to.
But I’m not ready to jump to the same conclusion that some on the blog have made, that Hudson has got to be hurt if he’s throwing like this.
And my reasoning is two-fold: For one, I’ve seen Hudson enough to know that he’s a bit different that most other elite pitchers, in that he’s so capable of being entirely underwhelming one start, then dominant in the next.
Don’t know if that’s because of the type of pitcher he is, or because of his mental approach in some games, or if his smallish physique makes him more inclined to be affected by aches or illness or whatever. I really don’t know.
But I said two-fold, and here’s the other part: In a few times in the past, when Hudson’s looked fairly awful for a few starts in a stretch, some have raised red flags and said he’s headed for surgery. Only to see him storm back.
I’ll point to two such incidents in the same season, the 2000 season with Oakland: Hudson gave up 11 hits, 11 runs and three homers in just four total innings during consecutive starts April 15-20 against Boston and Cleveland.
Then he went 9-0 with a 3.40 ERA and .210 opponents’ average in his next 13 starts.
Late that season he went 1-3 with an 11.72 ERA during a four-start span Aug. 6-23, giving up 27 hits in 17-2/3 innings including starts of 2-2/3 innings and 3-2/3 innings.
Then he went 7-0 with a 1.16 ERA and .163 opponents’ average in seven starts the rest of the season.
He went 20-6 that season.
Is he going to bounce back from this slump in similar fashion? I have no idea. All I know is, he says his arm feels perfectly fine, that he felt great physically in his last start.
Of course, he also didn’t say much about his strained side muscle a couple years back until he was going to the DL.
But if you were Hudson, and you struggled as much as he did in two of his past three starts, would you really say, “Actually, I felt great” after lasting only three innings at a time when your bullpen is worn and you want badly to produce a great start? I’m thinking, no, you’d probably at least say something along the lines of, “I’m dealing with some physical things, but it’s not a big deal.”
I don’t think you’d say, “No, actually I felt great.”
But maybe that’s just my thinking.
Francoeur’s progress: Now that the concerns about Jeff Francoeur’s sore foot/ankle seem to have subsided, might be a good time to point out that the right fielder has hit .333 (11-for-33) with six doubles and five RBI in his past eight games, and his strikeout Sunday was his only one in that span.
He’s hitting .294, leads the Braves in doubles (10) and extra-base hits (14), and ranks second with 19 RBI (Chipper has 20). Eight Braves have struck out as many or more times than Francoeur, whose nine whiffs are five behind Kelly Johnson and fewer than half of Matt Diaz’s team-high total (21).
So much for the slow start: After his typical early April slump, Mark Teixeira is 14-for-38 (.368) with six extra-base hits and 10 RBI in his past nine games.
He hit .203 with five extra-base hits and seven RBI in his first 16 games….
Also, Duluth’s own Blaine Boyer’s 18 strikeouts are tied for third-most among major league relievers.
Big disparity: Matt Diaz is hitting .447 (17-for-38) against lefties and .170 (8-for-47) against righties. Mark Kotsay has hit .364 (16-for-44) against righties and .158 (6-for-38) against lefties.
Rookie outfielder Gregor Blanco is 10-for-28 (.357) with five walks and a .455 OBP against righties, and 2-for-5 with two walks against lefties. It’s way early, but Blanco, who’s strong defensively, is starting to look like at least a solid fourth outfielder, and maybe more.
The O-for Braves: Still the only team in the majors without a win in one-run games (0-8), and now 0-10 when trailing after six innings…. Yet the Braves lead the league in hitting (.282; Cubs ,280) and rank third in runs and third in ERA (3.63) behind Arizona (3.03) and St. Louis (3.51) and ahead of the Cubs (3.68).
Telling stats: Braves starters rank third in the NL with a 3.50 ERA, but are dead last in innings with only 131. Six NL teams have over 150 innings from starters, including the Cardinals with 164-1/3 and the Padres with 161-1/3 (it’s OK to have one veteran going 5-6 innings per, but not three or four doing it)…. The Braves lead the NL in team batting average, but rank second-to-last in close-and-late situations at .197. Only the Padres (.186) have been worse.
Great CD: Forgot to mention one of the CD’s I bought during my late-night splurge at Virgin records in New York. It’s DeVotchKa’s A Mad & Faithful Telling and it’s very good, odd, totally original. Been playing it for two days on the little machine in my D.C. hotel. Something about it. Don’t even know how to describe it (hey, I’m no music writer), but sounds to me like if the late Jeff Buckley fronted Calexico, but with all sorts of Eastern European influence on top of, and what sounds to me like a toy piano in the background.
“LIVE FOREVER” by Billy Joe Shaver and Eddy Shaver
I’m gonna live forever
I’m gonna cross that river
I’m gonna catch tomorrow now
You’re gonna want to hold me
Just like I always told you
You’re gonna miss me when I’m gone
Nobody here will ever find me
But I will always be around
Just like the songs I leave behind me
I’m gonna live forever now
You fathers and you mothers
Be good to one another
Please try to raise your children right
Don’t let the darkness take ‘em
Don’t make ‘em feel forsaken
Just lead them safely to the light
When this old world is blown us under
And all the stars fall from the sky
Remember someone really loves you
We’ll live forever, you and I
I’m gonna live forever
I’m gonna cross that river
I’m gonna catch tomorrow now
I’m gonna live forever
I’m gonna cross that river
I’m gonna catch tomorrow now
I’m gonna live forever
I’m gonna cross that river
I’m gonna catch tomorrow now
Services »
