AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2008 > April > 29 > Entry
DEL.ICIO.USHey, the Braves have done it before….
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
With less than one-sixth of the 162-game baseball scheduled completed, and the Braves sitting 1-1/2 games behind New York and Philly in the NL East, a segment of the Braves-rooting populace is already writing off 2008 and looking to 2009.
Either that segment is very pessimistic or can’t remember way back to the early part of the century — yes, the 21st century.
The current Braves team is 12-13, with a strong lineup, a good bullpen that could be very good if Rafael Soriano gets healthy (Peter Moylan is likely done for the season, so I’m not really considering him).
The rotation? Questions have to be answered, obviously. But the rotation can be outstanding if John Smoltz and Tom Glavine can pitch 30 or so times and Tim Hudson can win 14-17 games. It can still be good if Smoltz has a few stints on the DL and pitches only about 20 times, if Mike Hampton can give the Braves something along the lines of 12-20 starts (stop laughing; it’s possible).
If Smoltz’s shoulder problem is serious (he’ll be checked later today) and prevents him from having a productive season, then the Braves’ rotation will obviously need strong seasons from Hudson, Glavine and Jurrjens, and something decent from Hampton and/or Chuck James, Jeff Bennett or someone else.
But even in that scenario, they can still have an adequate rotation, believe it or not, and they have trade pieces to make a move this summer in whatever area they need to reinforce most, provided they’re in contention.
Now, getting back to the history lesson, for those who seem to be either dismissive of the recent past, or simply forgot or choose not to acknowledge it.
In 2001: The Braves were 12-14 at the end of April and 17-21 on May 13, with a .239 batting average and 4.09 ERA. They finished 88-74 and won the NL East by two games over Philly (86-76) and six over the Mets (82-80).
The Braves’ top starters that year were Greg Maddux (17-11, 3.05), Glavine (16-7, 3.57), John Burkett (12-12, 3.04), Kevin Millwood (7-7, 4.31), Odalis Perez (6-6, 4.57) and Jason Marquis (4-6, 3.26).
In 2002: The Braves were 12-15 at the end of April, with a .241 batting average and 3.60 ERA. They went 89-44 the rest of the way to win the division by 19 games over Montreal.
The Braves’ top starters that season were Maddux (16-6, 2.62), Glavine (18-11, 2.96), Millwood (17-8, 3.25), Damian Moss (12-6, 3.50) and Jason Marquis (8-9, 5.04). In fact, no other starter won a game that season.
(Reminds us what having three strong starters who give you 200 or more innings can do, not to mention a fourth who’s as good as Moss was that season. Five good starters? That’s a luxury few teams have, even teams as good as this one was. Marquis only pitched 114 innings in 22 starts that season).
In 2004: The Braves were 13-14 at the end of April, with a .262 batting average and 4.32 ERA. They went 83-51 the rest of the way, hitting .271 with a 3.62 ERA in those last 134 games, and finished 96-66 to win the division by 10 games over the Phillies (86-76).
The Braves’ best starters that season were Jaret Wright (15-8, 3.28), Russ Ortiz (15-9, 4.13), John Thomson (14-8, 3.72), Mike Hampton (13-9, 4.28) and Paul Byrd (8-7, 3.94). No Cy Youngs among that crew, and Ortiz was the only one who pitched 200 innings that season. All other starters were a combined 3-8.
My point? You can win divisions with a lot of different recipes, and Bobby Cox’s teams have founds ways to do it after relatively slow starts (at least in the eyes of outsiders). That above was three times in the past seven years.
Do I think this Braves team will do it? I have no idea. Their chances are far greater if Smoltz can give them a quality season and Glavine can stay off the DL the rest of the way. But like I said, even if Smoltz were to have problems, they could still compete — as long as they’re getting contributions from the likes of Hudson, Glavine and Hampton (but we all know the latter is a mighty big “if”) or perhaps James.
The Hudson quandary: I received an interesting e-mail from J.C. Bradbury, the Kennesaw State U. economist and seamhead whiz over at sabernomics.com.
He computed the pitch speeds in Hudson’s recent starts, and disputed the assessment by Bobby Cox and Hudson that his velocity was normal Saturday at Shea, when Hudson gave up seven hits and four runs and was pulled after three innings.
“I think the Braves are being misleading,” he wrote me. “I tracked Hudson’s fastball on MLB’s Gameday, and his last start was very similar to his April 16 start against the Marlins in terms of fastball speed. On April 16 his average fastball was 88.81 MPH, and on April 26 his average fastball was 88.53 MPH. In his April 21 Washington start, his average fastball was 90.58 MPH.”
Hudson gave up six hits and four runs in just three innings of that April 16 start at Florida, and sandwiched those two three-inning outings around a 6-2/3 inning performance vs. Washington on April 21, when he gave up 10 hits and two runs (one earned).
I’ll trust his figures. Got no reason not to.
But I’m not ready to jump to the same conclusion that some on the blog have made, that Hudson has got to be hurt if he’s throwing like this.
And my reasoning is two-fold: For one, I’ve seen Hudson enough to know that he’s a bit different that most other elite pitchers, in that he’s so capable of being entirely underwhelming one start, then dominant in the next.
Don’t know if that’s because of the type of pitcher he is, or because of his mental approach in some games, or if his smallish physique makes him more inclined to be affected by aches or illness or whatever. I really don’t know.
But I said two-fold, and here’s the other part: In a few times in the past, when Hudson’s looked fairly awful for a few starts in a stretch, some have raised red flags and said he’s headed for surgery. Only to see him storm back.
I’ll point to two such incidents in the same season, the 2000 season with Oakland: Hudson gave up 11 hits, 11 runs and three homers in just four total innings during consecutive starts April 15-20 against Boston and Cleveland.
Then he went 9-0 with a 3.40 ERA and .210 opponents’ average in his next 13 starts.
Late that season he went 1-3 with an 11.72 ERA during a four-start span Aug. 6-23, giving up 27 hits in 17-2/3 innings including starts of 2-2/3 innings and 3-2/3 innings.
Then he went 7-0 with a 1.16 ERA and .163 opponents’ average in seven starts the rest of the season.
He went 20-6 that season.
Is he going to bounce back from this slump in similar fashion? I have no idea. All I know is, he says his arm feels perfectly fine, that he felt great physically in his last start.
Of course, he also didn’t say much about his strained side muscle a couple years back until he was going to the DL.
But if you were Hudson, and you struggled as much as he did in two of his past three starts, would you really say, “Actually, I felt great” after lasting only three innings at a time when your bullpen is worn and you want badly to produce a great start? I’m thinking, no, you’d probably at least say something along the lines of, “I’m dealing with some physical things, but it’s not a big deal.”
I don’t think you’d say, “No, actually I felt great.”
But maybe that’s just my thinking.
Francoeur’s progress: Now that the concerns about Jeff Francoeur’s sore foot/ankle seem to have subsided, might be a good time to point out that the right fielder has hit .333 (11-for-33) with six doubles and five RBI in his past eight games, and his strikeout Sunday was his only one in that span.
He’s hitting .294, leads the Braves in doubles (10) and extra-base hits (14), and ranks second with 19 RBI (Chipper has 20). Eight Braves have struck out as many or more times than Francoeur, whose nine whiffs are five behind Kelly Johnson and fewer than half of Matt Diaz’s team-high total (21).
So much for the slow start: After his typical early April slump, Mark Teixeira is 14-for-38 (.368) with six extra-base hits and 10 RBI in his past nine games.
He hit .203 with five extra-base hits and seven RBI in his first 16 games….
Also, Duluth’s own Blaine Boyer’s 18 strikeouts are tied for third-most among major league relievers.
Big disparity: Matt Diaz is hitting .447 (17-for-38) against lefties and .170 (8-for-47) against righties. Mark Kotsay has hit .364 (16-for-44) against righties and .158 (6-for-38) against lefties.
Rookie outfielder Gregor Blanco is 10-for-28 (.357) with five walks and a .455 OBP against righties, and 2-for-5 with two walks against lefties. It’s way early, but Blanco, who’s strong defensively, is starting to look like at least a solid fourth outfielder, and maybe more.
The O-for Braves: Still the only team in the majors without a win in one-run games (0-8), and now 0-10 when trailing after six innings…. Yet the Braves lead the league in hitting (.282; Cubs ,280) and rank third in runs and third in ERA (3.63) behind Arizona (3.03) and St. Louis (3.51) and ahead of the Cubs (3.68).
Telling stats: Braves starters rank third in the NL with a 3.50 ERA, but are dead last in innings with only 131. Six NL teams have over 150 innings from starters, including the Cardinals with 164-1/3 and the Padres with 161-1/3 (it’s OK to have one veteran going 5-6 innings per, but not three or four doing it)…. The Braves lead the NL in team batting average, but rank second-to-last in close-and-late situations at .197. Only the Padres (.186) have been worse.
Great CD: Forgot to mention one of the CD’s I bought during my late-night splurge at Virgin records in New York. It’s DeVotchKa’s A Mad & Faithful Telling and it’s very good, odd, totally original. Been playing it for two days on the little machine in my D.C. hotel. Something about it. Don’t even know how to describe it (hey, I’m no music writer), but sounds to me like if the late Jeff Buckley fronted Calexico, but with all sorts of Eastern European influence on top of, and what sounds to me like a toy piano in the background.
“LIVE FOREVER” by Billy Joe Shaver and Eddy Shaver
I’m gonna live forever
I’m gonna cross that river
I’m gonna catch tomorrow now
You’re gonna want to hold me
Just like I always told you
You’re gonna miss me when I’m gone
Nobody here will ever find me
But I will always be around
Just like the songs I leave behind me
I’m gonna live forever now
You fathers and you mothers
Be good to one another
Please try to raise your children right
Don’t let the darkness take ‘em
Don’t make ‘em feel forsaken
Just lead them safely to the light
When this old world is blown us under
And all the stars fall from the sky
Remember someone really loves you
We’ll live forever, you and I
I’m gonna live forever
I’m gonna cross that river
I’m gonna catch tomorrow now
I’m gonna live forever
I’m gonna cross that river
I’m gonna catch tomorrow now
I’m gonna live forever
I’m gonna cross that river
I’m gonna catch tomorrow now
Comments
By Tim
April 29, 2008 12:06 PM | Link to this
Great Column, Dave
By Tim
April 29, 2008 12:06 PM | Link to this
Great Column, Dave
By nfieldr
April 29, 2008 12:07 PM | Link to this
Ok, I know that I’m a glass is half full kind of guy, but DOB, there are an awful lot of “ifs” at the top of your blog. Still… I do have hope for ‘08.
By Bill in VA
April 29, 2008 12:12 PM | Link to this
I tend to have faith in the ability of rookies to help energize the team, Prado, Blanco, et al.
By GT
April 29, 2008 12:16 PM | Link to this
The difference between 2008 and the other seasons mentioned is the Braves’ competition in the Mets and Phillies is much better now than in 2001 or 2002. This Braves team is a .500 team. Same as last year. The reason fans are looking forward to 2009 - myself included - is the possibility of seeing Charlie Morton come into the rotation with Jair Jurjjens and form a potentially powerful 1,2 combination. Much as I like Smoltz, the Braves just don’t have a viable rotation this year, 3rd best ERA aside.
By 18 Wheels of Love
April 29, 2008 12:16 PM | Link to this
DOB
First of all, I don’t want this to sound like a panic question but I base it on us having lost some top notch free agents in the past without getting some players in return via trade, and also on comments made about us not spending 20m on one player if your budget is projected where ours currently is…85-90m.
Do you foresee a situation where Wren might decide that Tex is unsignable and consider moving him during the course of this season? Of course, timing is everything but I am just wondering if his philosophy is the same as Schuerholtz’s for this type of situation? Do you settle for a draft pick and be done with it or do you try and get more by taking the risk of trading him during the season?
Peterbilt, Peterbilt
By ManOfTeal
April 29, 2008 12:25 PM | Link to this
What’s the matter Dave? Too embarrased to say that your beloved Braves are not only 1 1/2 games behind Philly and New York but also 3 FULL games behind the NL East leading Florida Marlins. You know nobody in the mainstream media is giving the Marlins any credit for what they have done so far this year and I’m tired of it.
But that’s ok because the Marlins have played best when the media has completely ignored them in the past. Two World Championships in their 15-year existance to the Braves one World Championship since they came to Atlanta four decades ago.
Enjoy your AARP-eligable pitching staff, I know I do whenever I see my Marlins take battig practice against the Braves’ pathetic pitching.
Go Marlins!!!!
By GT
April 29, 2008 12:29 PM | Link to this
that segment is very pessimistic…
Its not pessimism, just being realistic. It is unlikely that this starting rotation can improve with Glavine and Smoltz on a revolving DL, and with Hudson having inexplicable losses of velocity. When the vacancies are reliant on Chuck James, Buddy Carlyle, JoJo Reyes, or whoever else, it becomes unlikely indeed.
By Mark in PA
April 29, 2008 12:42 PM | Link to this
Great update, DOB.
My point? You can win divisions with a lot of different recipes… In case you missed it, Smoltz was not in the rotation for any of those seasons listed.
Heavens to Murgatroyd, if the Muts trolls weren’t bad enough, we now have smack-talking Fishfans on the blog. Wearing teal.
By N8
April 29, 2008 12:42 PM | Link to this
nolie
From the previous blog:
“gee I think I will continue to think for myself Nate, that is if I can get you to give me permission. Please, Please. ???”
Feel free to think whatever you wish. I was just putting the stats/facts in front of you. When July rolls around and KJ is still in the lead-off spot for a team failing to score runs and is 10 games off the pace, you and Bobby can “discuss” where it all went wrong. LOL!
“I think that Escobar is the best choice for hitting second and that is exactly where I would bat him. To each his own, huh?”
Absolutely. See above.
By David O'Brien
April 29, 2008 12:45 PM | Link to this
But that’s ok because the Marlins have played best when the media has completely ignored them in the past. Two World Championships in their 15-year existance to the Braves one World Championship since they came to Atlanta four decades ago.ManOfTeal
Let me get this straight: You’re saying the media ignored the ‘97 Marlins, who had just purchased free agents Moises Alou, Alex Fernandez, Bobby Bonilla, Devon White and manager Jim Leyland, after adding free agents Kevin Brown and Al Leiter the year before to a team that already had Gary Sheffield, Robb Nen, Charles Johnson, Edgar Renteria, etc? Oh, OK. That’s a new one.
Because when I was covering that team, I seem to remember that Marlins team being on the cover of magazines from the winter through the spring (they had one of the best spring training records in history).
Thanks for the history lesson, ManOfTeal. When did you start watching the Marlins, in 2003?
By KC
April 29, 2008 12:45 PM | Link to this
DOB: Good info.
Cox knew Hudson didn’t have his usual zip. In the post-game interview, he said something to the effect of “I just decided to pull him back. It’s a long season… no need to wear him out”. Again, that’s strictly paraphrased… but that was the gist of it.
There’s absolutely NO reason why he would pull his ace out after 3 innings, and turn it over to an already overworked bullpen… unless he sensed something wasn’t quite right.
I guess that’s still my only concern. As DOB pointed out, Hudson has been prone to stretches like this. But I just can’t remember a loss of velocity being part of the equation in any of those instances.
Just gotta keep our fingers crossed, both for Hudson and for Smoltz.
By Cecil34
April 29, 2008 12:45 PM | Link to this
Everyone who is a Braves fan had their fingers crossed going into this season that all of the more aged/injured starters would hold up.
If they did, then this team could definately be competitive.
If they did not, then this team would flirt with .500 ball all year long.
Everyone knew what the risks were, including the Braves’ braintrust, and sometimes you have to play the cards that you are dealt in a given year.
Because there are going to be other, and better, years ahead.
Fans will not know for sure what we have until late May or early June, but this latest twinge felt by Smoltz is not a move into a positive outcome.
Obviously the Glavine/Hampton tandem is the key to the whole enchilada….at least in ‘08.
By Supes
April 29, 2008 12:48 PM | Link to this
DOB
I haven’t written “off” this season, I just have serious doubts the Braves can be competitive with all the injuries they have right now, and how will they affect the team’s record in the end when it comes push for the Playoffs?
I am looking at this with tampered expectations, and looking at the short term, as you have a lot of “ifs” in your opening. BTW, that is a lot of great research, so thanks for providing those numbers, they do bring some cause for optimism, I just can’t see it thought with this current Braves team.
My biggest concern is the health of Chipper Jones. He needs to play 145 games, at least if the Braves are to have any shot at being in the NL playoffs, via WC or Division winner.
Without Chipper they just aren’t the same lineup. The other day, I forget which game…they walked Chipper to pitch to Tex! That tells you everything you need to know…teams don’t fear Tex, they fear Chipper! Not just b/c he’s locked in now…and a hitting machine, it’s b/c he’s a better overall hitter. I think Mark’s got the better “pop” in his bat, and he’ll hit more HR’s probably than Chipper, but Jones will hit for higher ave, more doubles and probably more 2 outs RBI’s.
Starting rotation is a huge concern. I hope Hudson will be fine, but I’m not counting on Smoltz, Glavine or Hampton.
DOB, once the verdict on Smoltz is clear, and we know what the problem is, if becoming the closer would be more beneficial to his long term pitching health, will John consider it? Please ask him that question sometime this week, I think many fans would like to know.
I know John has said he wants to be a starter, but if prolonging his career by going to the closer role again, he would also help out the Braves right now with no Soriano and no Moyland in the pen.
By AGTfan
April 29, 2008 12:50 PM | Link to this
It’s funny how pessimists ALWAYS claim that they’re realists. Really, It’s OK to be a pessimist. Go ahead and admit it.
By Bobby's Cox
April 29, 2008 12:59 PM | Link to this
N8
Great last post on the previous blog… couldn’t agree with you more.
I did this stat on my own just by looking at the boxscores, but it looks like the braves are 9-5 when they score early (innings 1-4).
By N8
April 29, 2008 1:00 PM | Link to this
DOB
“But like I said, even if Smoltz were to have problems, they could still compete..”
In reality, we’ve “competed” that past two seasons, haven’t we?
I guess I was expecting more. Not demanding it…just expecting it.
By geauxbraves2000
April 29, 2008 1:02 PM | Link to this
It’s too early to write the Braves off yet, but, besides the starting pitching so far this year, this appears to be a mirror of the last couple of years: unable to win close games, lack of clutch hitting, jeckyll and hyde offense and pen. Sometimes the pen looks so dominate, at others very vulnerable.
If they score 100 runs in 7 games, they will lead in offense, but if they score 7 runs in the next seven games, that’s 7.64 runs per game, which is great, but chances are they’ll be 7-7. A .500 team. That’s what I see so far, and their record just about shows it.
They play sloopy against soft tossing lefties, any decent pitcher can totally dominate this offense, and I don’t trust the pen to hold a one run lead.
So far, 2007 reincarnate.
Things can change, but they have to make adjustments against the types of pitches they struggle against.
I haven’t given up on the Oct parade, I hope everything starts clicking, for this can be a great team.
Geaux Braves!!
By Robert (Chipper Is The Best)
April 29, 2008 1:03 PM | Link to this
DOB, would Smoltz consider going to the bullpen as a closer if it would lessen the stress on his shoulder? Soriano was slated as a possible starter when he was first acquired. He could go down to the minors for a couple of weeks to get stretched out. Is that a possibility/
By Dopey Dawg
April 29, 2008 1:05 PM | Link to this
Lew, To reply to your last post on the previous blog. I know John Smoltz because of his age, annointed Tim Hudson the No.1 Starter but that doesn’t make it so. He wasn’t the No.1 starter in Oakland and he isn’t one here for the same reason. He is far too erractic with his control and in the past and this year with his velocity. He doesn’t have his A game 8 or 9 times out of ten like a Smoltz, Glavine or Maddox, instead it’s more like 6 times out of 10.
By Craig Swann
April 29, 2008 1:07 PM | Link to this
Man of Teal, I think you’ll enjoy this from baseball prospectus…
“The combination of a soft early schedule (14 games against the Nationals, Pirates, and Astros, in which they went 9-5) and some luck in close games (3-0 in extra innings to go with the 6-2 record in one-run affairs) has served to make the Marlins April’s mirage. Not only will they be evicted from first place soon enough, they could plummet rapidly come the end of the next month, which features a 10-game road trip through New York, Philadelphia, and Atlanta. At least there aren’t a lot of people who will be disappointed when it happens.”
except you. tee hee.
By eric the elder
April 29, 2008 1:07 PM | Link to this
Nice analysis of past teams, DOB, but none of them had two 40+ starters and another who hadn’t pitched for over 2 years.
This year’s version appears to require taking out all those new expensive seats behind home plate and installing a MASH unit.
By BraveInMiami
April 29, 2008 1:07 PM | Link to this
DOB
you are too funny man, I love the blog brother keep it up
By N8
April 29, 2008 1:16 PM | Link to this
AGTfan
“It’s funny how pessimists ALWAYS claim that they’re realists. Really, It’s OK to be a pessimist. Go ahead and admit it.”
It’s even funnier that optimists are the ones with their hearts broken, when things don’t go well. You know…the fans they show CRYING in the stands, when their team is eliminated from the playoffs?
Another point not to lose sight of…..
Most pessimists are people that have seen enough to have a good gut feeling of where things are headed.
I’m NOT a fair-weather fan. The Braves could lose 130 games this year, and I’ll be right there next spring paying for the Extra Innings package, and having faith that the winter’s moves have shored up our holes.
I’m not going anywhere (as in jumping off the wagon).
However, I am VERY MUCH of a “what have you done for me lately?”, fan.
Lately (the past 349 games), the Braves have been as mediocre as it comes….175-174 to be exact. If acknowledging that this team, is mediocre makes me a pessimist, consider me a card carrying member of the pessimist club.
By Jim
April 29, 2008 1:17 PM | Link to this
I had to watch the games on the Mets stations this weekend, and I haed the same observation as the fan in Colorado. On the radar postings after each pitch, they consistently had Hudson at 88 mph or below. Maine was recording 92-93 and the commentators were saying that he didn’t have his good fastball. The consistency of these readings with those on MLB and the readings for other pitchers on Sat. indicate that this was an accurate gun and that Hudson was topping out at 88-89 with most of his pitches recording lower. Even before the 3rd inning, the warning signs were apparent — the gun readings, the lack of ground ball outs, and (from the TV view) the movement on his pitches was not as sharp as it has been on his good nights. Even in the start at Washington, his fasball was sitting at 90-91 and he gave up a lot of hits to a weak lineup.
As for Smoltz — if this were September, then maybe he should try to “gut it out”, but it’s still April, and I hope he does spend a stretch on the DL to try to let the shoulder heal. I wonder if the shoulder problem was something that was there all spring and the pitching in only minor league games was a way of hiding it. If he was trying to re-invent himself, there has been little or no evidence of that so far this year. He has been a power pitcher with the same repertoire that he always used.
By ncscoots
April 29, 2008 1:17 PM | Link to this
It’s funny how pessimists ALWAYS claim that they’re realists. Really, It’s OK to be a pessimist. Go ahead and admit it.
You can go ahead and nuke THAT sentiment, my friend. None of the “realists” who frequent this blog will ever take that step, LOL. Can’t be done. Need a different gene for that to happen.
Contrarians simply need something, anything, to be contrary ABOUT, in order to make the day go by. But you can’t really fault them for it; just a dog bein’ a dog. You might not like the location of his licks, but whatcha gonna do? :-)
By Shamus Thacker
April 29, 2008 1:18 PM | Link to this
We had some poor starts in the 90s too. Look how they turned out.
I still believe we’ll win the division this year. I don’t figure Hammy into my thinking AT ALL. My Mom is more of a man.
By Tomahawkin
April 29, 2008 1:20 PM | Link to this
Tonite Greg Maddux could make his last start in Philly against King Cole Hamels, that should be a hella ill match-up, Go Maddog!
By Robert
April 29, 2008 1:21 PM | Link to this
Please everyone lets have some faith and confidence. We are only 1 game under .500 with our closer and setup man out almost the entire year. Our ace is hurting, Hampton well is Hampton. We will right the ship. Do not give up.
By Tomahawkin
April 29, 2008 1:25 PM | Link to this
Good Insight D.O.B.on the Braves Squads of the past, I remember in 2001 our offense did click til June, hopefully it will come earlier this year
I remember we dropped back to back 2-1, and 1-0 games at Chivez Ravine (the later was a hella good pitchers duel Jason Marquis against Kevin Brown that ended up a being a walkoff by the Dodgers on a Sheffield Homer off of Kerry Ligtenberg)
Lets Solve the Tim Redding Riddle tonight both the Braves and Phillie offenses have made him look like Cy Young…
By Original Jon
April 29, 2008 1:25 PM | Link to this
We should trade for someone like Edwin Jackson, he is young and could be a future number 3.
By N8
April 29, 2008 1:26 PM | Link to this
Bobby’s Cox
Here’s the thing. MANY people have been stating that Yunel is the “ideal” #2 hitter. I can’t, don’t and won’t argue with that. He is.
But WITHOUT a real lead-off hitter ahead of him, the “assets” that Yunel brings to the table as a #2 hitter, are wasted as well.
What does it matter, if Yunel is GREAT at hitting the ball to the hole on the right side with a runner on base, if said runner (KJ), is hardly ever on base?
So for that reason (along with the numbers in my previous post you referred to), Yunel SHOULD be the lead-off hitter.
If we were to say, call up Josh Anderson and put him in the lead-off spot, or put Blanco there (only if he’s playing everyday), or as DOB has stated, brought back Rafael Furcal to hit lead-off for us next year, THEN Yunel would ABSOLUTELY shine in the #2 spot.
So, in conclusion (for now, I’m sure), for THIS team, as it is currently constructed, Yunel should be the lead-off hitter. It would give THIS lineup, the best chance to score more runs, especially early in games to take a quick lead.
Just my opinion, nothing more.
But the numbers back me up.
By Tomahawkin
April 29, 2008 1:29 PM | Link to this
Hey D.O.B. If and When you have any off-time with Glavine, can you ask him will he be making another book about his career?
I have his first one “None But The Braves Tom Glavine” that was published in 1996 and its pretty good. It brings back a lot of memories of his upcoming through the system with the likes of Pete Smith, Lemke, Blauser, Gant, Justice, etc. in the late 80’s to the Championship season of 95…
probably the best biography that I’ve bought…
By Bobby's Cox
April 29, 2008 1:31 PM | Link to this
i never lose hope in bobby cox. if this team could win in ‘05 with 18 rookies then they could win this year with the problems they have. Hampton last pitched in ‘05, and he’ll pitch again this year. Maybe that’s a feable sign like the press box fire was in ‘92.
We’ve all had our own ideas on what bobby could do to piece things together, including myself. Lets hope bobby and the front office finds the answers and applies them. With the rash of injuries the braves have encountered, he’ll have to.
By Shaun
April 29, 2008 1:33 PM | Link to this
Regarding the leadoff discussion: A few of you want to throw out only what KJ has done leading off an inning or a game. And want to look at what Escobar has done leading off an inning or a game. Escobar has led off a game all of 35 times.
Second, isn’t this kind of a weird way to determine the better leadoff hitter or better hitter or better anything?
It’s kind of like determining how smart you are by only looking at your high school test scores on a Wednesday.
Hey, Chipper is a .111/.233/.194 hitter in his career as a pinch-hitter. Guess given the opportunity, he shouldn’t be a pinch-hitting just like Kelly Johnson shouldn’t be a leadoff hitter.
Chipper’s .175/.250/.300 as a 5th place hitter. Guess if there comes a point where Chipper needs to bat fifth, his manager shouldn’t do it.
Chipper’s only hitting .175/.284/.365 against the Blue Jays. He shouldn’t be in the lineup next time the Braves face Toronto.
By CC Rider
April 29, 2008 1:34 PM | Link to this
Lew, I agree with you that Hudson is sometimes a number one starter, but his consitentcy falls short in my opinion. I also believe his slight build along with his ERA average over the last 5 seasons including this one is right at 3.80. I don’t call that an ERA of a No.1 starter. He doesn’t dominant like a Smoltz, Maddox, Pedro, Beckett Etc. He is a good No.2 at best.
By northBeach Scott
April 29, 2008 1:35 PM | Link to this
DOB You referred to Boyer and Blanco as Rookies in the Blog entry for today. Would you verify the Braves that meet the Rookie Criteria on the 25 man roster?
I believe this group includes: Acosta, Campillo, Jurrjens, Lillibridge, Prado, and possibly Boyer, Pena, Resop and Ring depending upon if they meet the <45 days on the active roster rule between start of the season and 8/31. Just curious as Yunel is no longer technically a rookie.
On the 40 man roster other rookies appear to include: Cuevas, Morton, Lerew, Ridgway, Stockman, Sammons, Brandon Jones and Anderson. Looks like Jo Jo pitched >50 innings so he is no longer a rookie, either.
Thank you!
By Gary
April 29, 2008 1:37 PM | Link to this
Whats funny is no one remembers that in 2001 John Burket could never get past the 6th inning and Millwood missed two months with a dead arm. Its not like the Braves were able to rely on them in the early going. What else is funny is people tend to forget who the Braves fielded everyday that year. Rico Brogna, Keith Lockhart, Rey Sanchez (when Furcal was lost for the season in late June), an inexperienced Marcus Giles, BJ Surhoff, etc… Javy Lopez and Andruw Jones dropped off considerably from their 2000 performances too. Chipper and Brian Jordan were the only two weapons the Braves had offensively and the bullpen did not come around until late in the year. Remember John Rocker blowing saves in the first half of the 2001 season??
My point is you guys are writing off DOB because those were different teams. Actually I think this team is much better than that 2001 team. The pitching is deeper, the lineup is deeper, and say what you want about the bench but I will take Prado and Gotay over Mr. pop-up Keith Lockhart any day. The only team you can say that was absolutely better than this one was that 2002 team. They were deep across the board.
Also of note, no one here is a realist. We have no idea what this team is going to do from here on out. I hope they get healthy and go on a classic Braves roll only to have a better outcome come October. The Mets and Phillies are not going to run away with this thing. They are battling injuries just like the Braves are and inconsistent as well. Don’t worry Teal, the Marlins (like all surprise teams) will falter in May.
By Steve in DC
April 29, 2008 1:38 PM | Link to this
-zing- DOB, i nearly coughed up a mouthful of lunch I laughed so hard reading your marlins history post. Too funny. I mean, there are SO many similarities between the 1997 team and the 2008 22$ million incarnation. There are a LOT of talented kids on this team (Hermida, Hanley, Uggla), and NO overpriced aging free agents. Tell you what, if I lived in S. Florida, I would be one of the 732 people at games, because those young guys are fun to watch.
By Tom in NYC
April 29, 2008 1:44 PM | Link to this
GeauxBraves2000, I think you are right on point.
**It’s too early to write the Braves off yet, but, besides the starting pitching so far this year, this appears to be a mirror of the last couple of years: unable to win close games, lack of clutch hitting, jeckyll and hyde offense and pen. Sometimes the pen looks so dominate, at others very vulnerable.
If they score 100 runs in 7 games, they will lead in offense, but if they score 7 runs in the next seven games, that’s 7.64 runs per game, which is great, but chances are they’ll be 7-7. A .500 team. That’s what I see so far, and their record just about shows it.
They play sloopy against soft tossing lefties, any decent pitcher can totally dominate this offense, and I don’t trust the pen to hold a one run lead.**
Until we get over this hump, I see us having the same results as last year. Unfortunately, I don’t see us getting over this hump, no signs have pointed that way.
By Original Jon
April 29, 2008 1:44 PM | Link to this
Thanks for the history lesson, ManOfTeal. When did you start watching the Marlins, in 2003? DOB
haha, manofteal, that is what we call a sick burn.
By DAP
April 29, 2008 1:44 PM | Link to this
i try to be positive all the time and be very hopeful, but i admit, i dont feel great right now about the team. i think its just because of all the injuries.
many on the blog were pointing out all winter that smoltz was gonna be 40 and age was gonna catch up to him eventually. i didnt believe it. he has serously shown his age this season…seemingly all of the sudden. i think THATS what is hard for me more than anything. the bearded icon showing weakness is not what im used to.
and huddy…who saw THIS coming? i didnt. hopefully he will overcome it.
SOMEONE on this team…i dont know who, needs to step up and become a big time leader, and get everyone fired up. chipper. tex. frenchy. yunel. somebody. do it.
By DonCoburleone
April 29, 2008 1:45 PM | Link to this
DOB I am definately not writing this team off (its still freakin’ April for gosh sakes), but geauxbraves2000 expressed exactly how I am feeling about the 2008 Braves: “besides the starting pitching so far this year, this appears to be a mirror of the last couple of years: unable to win close games, lack of clutch hitting, jeckyll and hyde offense and pen. Sometimes the pen looks so dominate, at others very vulnerable.”
I couldn’t agree more with those sentiments. Where is the close win? Where is the comeback late in a game? Why can’t we hit soft-tossin’ lefties? I mean, Andrew Miller was getting destroyed by everyone and their mother, but put him up against the Braves offense and he manages to wiggle out of jam after jam and only allow 2ER’s. It’s the games like that where I just shrug my shoulders and say “we got unlucky”, but when I find myself saying that once a week I begin to realize thats what this team does and its not simply “bad luck”, its a TREND…
Bottom line, give me a come from behind win and an actual winning streak (talking like winning 13 out of 15 or something similar to that; not the win 5 in a row, lose 4 out of 5 streaks we’ve consistently had the last 2+ seasons). If we can do those things, I’ll feel alot better about this team; until then, consider me cautiously optimistic…
By Will
April 29, 2008 1:47 PM | Link to this
Way too many if’s in this blog. The bullpen is not very good, Hampton will not give the braves 5 starts, Smoltz is never going to be healthy this season and the Braves continuously dating back to the last two years cannot get big hits late in games and in close games. The Braves are a .500 baseball team, no questions asked.
By Tomahawkin
April 29, 2008 1:47 PM | Link to this
N8
Good assessment about the leadoff scenario, Same situation with Victorino and Rollins in Philly, you need a speedster in front of Rollins to fully utilize his assets…
Same with Esco, I like the Idea of Anderson or Blanco in the leadoff role ahead of him…
I’ve been tired of station-to-station wait for the 3 run homer philosopy, wonder why we suck in 1-run games…even though some of it is bad luck…
By AGTfan
April 29, 2008 1:48 PM | Link to this
Most pessimists are people that have seen enough to have a good gut feeling of where things are headed.
Isn’t that just another way of saying, “No really, I’m a realist.”?
Being a pessimist doesn’t make you any less of a fan. It just makes you a pessimist. I’ve got nothing against pessimists. Heck, maybe you’re not a pessimist. I’d have to see more of your posts when things are going well to really make an assessment. It doesn’t matter. If there were only optimists on the blog, it would get so boring that we’d all go crazy. There have to be a few of each. If I didn’t get to watch you arguing with whoever you are arguing with at any given time, it wouldn’t be nearly as entertaining.
By Bobby's Cox
April 29, 2008 1:49 PM | Link to this
N8
Again i agree with you 100%. Put KJ in the 7 hole where he’s had the best success. Escobar IS the ideal #2, but is also the best #1 from the crop we have to choose from currently. Tis why i didn’t like the kotsay signing when we already traded for anderson (and traded relief!). Tis why i argue so much about prado, cuz in his 3 starts for this club hitting leadoff, the teams resonded big-time twice. Not to put Prado on a star, but just to make the argument that KJ shouldn’t be hitting leadoff - that this team’s lack of a leadoff hitter accounts for much of its inconsistancies at the plate. KJ should not be this team’s leadoff hitter, and i think we proved that plenty with stats.
There’s 2 types of leadoff hitters in the game. Those that get on base regulary. They’re typically pesky slap hitters, doubles hitters, can bunt for a single & foul off pitches. They steal a lot, and by doing so they put pressure on defenses. Then theres the Jeter type (much more common in the roid era IMO). Hitting leadoff because there’s no one else, he’s a consistent .300 hitter, and has a consitent powerful lineup behind him. KJ fits neither. Escobar fits the latter, for the time being.
By DAP
April 29, 2008 1:55 PM | Link to this
N8 What does it matter, if Yunel is GREAT at hitting the ball to the hole on the right side with a runner on base, if said runner (KJ), is hardly ever on base?
i think thats reaching a little. KJ has been slumping, but seems to be coming out of it, and his OBP is .330 for the year. not great, but he does get one base. last year it was much higher than that, and its just under .360 lifetime.
By TURTSNAP
April 29, 2008 1:55 PM | Link to this
Hey DOB, being the eternal optimist that I am (when it comes to the Braves anyway), I have even wondered if Hudson’s problems could be attributed to cold weather. But the velocity shouldn’t be affected by cold, so I continue to query into what the problem could be.
I am more than a little concerned about Smoltzie though. I have been afraid to come to the ajc site for fear that an awful headline about Smoltzies doctor visit will flash me in the face.
By BraveInMiami
April 29, 2008 1:56 PM | Link to this
DOB
I was wondering whatever happened to the pitcher Jay Powell who became Bobby’s designated groundball pitcher but during a game back in ‘04 or ‘05 he snapped something in his arm during a pitch. He was the guy they felt confident in to trade Grybowski if I remember correctly.
Random thought I know
By tom Robinson
April 29, 2008 1:57 PM | Link to this
better to finish in third place then win the division and CHOKE in the first round
By DAP
April 29, 2008 1:59 PM | Link to this
N8 by the way, you post doesnt mention who should bat 2nd instead of yunel. maybe thats part of the issue. theres no on else that makes sense in the 2hole. KJ wouldnt work there…and kotsay….well hopefully he will start hitting better, but i think we might be seeing alot of at bats with no one on, 2 outs and chipper up.
By N8
April 29, 2008 2:00 PM | Link to this
Shaun
Your 1:33 post shows your arrogance and how you obviously TWIST the numbers to make a point. Who gives a RATS AZZ how Chipper has faired in the #5 hole? It’s NOT up for discussion regarding this team.
Who gives a RATS AZZ how he does as a PH? If Chipper is pinch hitting, odds are we’re losing, since he wasn’t in the lineup, right?
Did you READ the frickin post of mine, that stated that in “all of 35 games” as the lead-off hitter, that Escobar has scored only 5 runs less in the first inning as KJ has in 99 games as the lead-off hitter?
Are you so FRICKIN blind that you are afraid to admit (because YOUR numbers you dig up don’t “add up” to your point), that the TEAM WAS DIFFERENT with Escobar leading off?
The offense was explosive, and his energy IGNITED THE OFFENSE!!!
How many months of KJ being mediocre, AT BEST (regardless of his spot in the batting order), are you gonna throw his “career” numbers out there for discussion.
It just hit me. You’d be the guy drowning as the Titanic fades away to the ocean floor, SCREAMING how unsinkable that ship was.
OPEN YOU EYES, it’s amazing what you might see.
In the 99 games that KJ has led off the game, he has gotten on base 27 times. Do the math. With a calculator, you can conclude that in those 99 games, our 2nd place hitter (Yunel or whoever) has come to the plate in the first inning with 1 out and NOBODY on base.
Why not just concede that 1st out before the inning starts, and save KJ the embarrassment?
You’re the numbers guy. Find me the “odds” of scoring a run in an inning, when there is one out and nobody on base. I’d be curious to see those numbers, compared to when the lead-off hitter (in any inning) gets on base.
By Shaun
April 29, 2008 2:01 PM | Link to this
The Braves lead the NL in team batting average, but rank second-to-last in close-and-late situations at .197. Only the Padres (.186) have been worse.
Chipper is probably the second or third-best hitting regular in close-and-late situations. He’s hitting .214/.313/.286. I suspect their close-and-late hitting up to this point is just a fluke that will adjust itself as the season progresses. It’s not like last season where Andruw Jones is going to get 87 AB in those situations.
By Jim
April 29, 2008 2:02 PM | Link to this
I’m glad to hear all the talk about the leadoff spot today. Everytime the blog gets negative about KJ he has a big night. Hope this is an omen.
By BravesDave
April 29, 2008 2:04 PM | Link to this
DOB, saw The Verve last night at the Theater at MSG. One of their first performances in the US since they disbanded 10 years ago. Right up at the barrier in front of the stage. Awesome show. Amazing that a band with such talent could stay apart for 10 years and rob us their potential. Here is a link to one of their new songs. They closed the show with this last night and it was rocking.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gTJvbGVXwMI
By richbrave
April 29, 2008 2:04 PM | Link to this
CHARLIE MORTON continues on the level of pitching that he’s occupied since arriving. Some good, some not so. This time a good IP/H ratio, but too many walks. SO’s excellent. The young man’s coming along in the process of learning to become a pitcher instead of just a thrower. Braves are taking their time with him, and success couldn’t happen to a nicer guy in my book.
By Thrillhouse44
April 29, 2008 2:07 PM | Link to this
Great post, Gary. I was lucky enough to have spent 2001 summer in ATL training. Your post brought back memories of watching BJ Surhoff ripping up grass in LF in between pitches. People dogged on LaRoche, but Surhoff’s attention span seemed to be shorter than mine.
By BravesDave
April 29, 2008 2:08 PM | Link to this
DOB chooses to compare this current Braves team to 2001, 2002, and 2004. I choose to compare this team to 2006 and 2007. We have seen these types of performances too many times over the past two seasons to assume that the 2008 season is going to end any differently. As much as I hate to say it, this team is destined for another 3rd place finish.
By Bobby's Cox
April 29, 2008 2:12 PM | Link to this
Great timelineof the braves success here. Talks about every season of the braves 14-year run except 2003 for some reason.
It coincides with DOB’s blog today.
You can read how the braves faced diversity in each season, who stepped up & who prospered (Burkett was 3rd in the NL in era in 2001 with at 3.03?!), etc…
By Bobby's Cox
April 29, 2008 2:20 PM | Link to this
Shaun
Nice stats again regarding Chipper in close-and-late, fool.
Do you even realize that if this team scores early that they won’t have to hit close and late all the time? Scoring early puts pressure on the other team.
You’re running in circles with your stats. You want our continued lack of sucess with KJ hitting leadoff obviously, a big cause for our team falling behind in games. But then you throw out stats to prove other guys aren’t hitting late in close games when we’re trying to argue the team shouldn’t be in that position to be begin with half the time with a different leadoff guy.
By DAP
April 29, 2008 2:22 PM | Link to this
not the win 5 in a row, lose 4 out of 5 streaks we’ve consistently had the last 2+ seasons).
i WISH that were true. thats a 96 win pace.
By SNIPER-69
April 29, 2008 2:28 PM | Link to this
DOB, Yeah the braves had other poor starts in the past and overcame them. But let me point out, 1. the Mets and phillies weren’t as good as they are now 2. the braves rotation was very good 3. Smoltz and Glavine were in their mid 30’s not early 40’s.
By SNIPER-69
April 29, 2008 2:32 PM | Link to this
DOB, one last thing. Your article has a lot of IF’S……
By Bobby's Cox
April 29, 2008 2:35 PM | Link to this
DAP
KJ’s getting out of it? Cuz he’s walking more? He may be walking more, but he’s hitting .238 in the last 6 games.
Now bringing up who should bat 2nd is a great argument. I say diaz. That guy hits no matter the situation.
By Shaun
April 29, 2008 2:35 PM | Link to this
N8, my point exactly. Why should we care what Chipper has done in the five spot or as a pinch-hitter or against the Blue Jays? We should look at his overall numbers to tell us about what he’s capable of. Just like we should look at KJ’s overall numbers.
And I concede it’s quite possible Escobar would be better in the leadoff spot. But it’s silly to say Johnson is a bad option or doesn’t belong in the leadoff role.
By N8
April 29, 2008 2:37 PM | Link to this
Jim
“Everytime the blog gets negative about KJ he has a big night.”
Let’s just clarify this for the record.
I’m NOT down on KJ. I’m down on KJ as the LEAD-OFF HITTER.
I think he’s a gamer. He’s improved his defense enough to NOT be a liability out there. He’s got 15-20 HR power, and would knock in about 70-100 RBI, if he were to hit lower in the order.
What’s there to be negative about? Oh yeah, the fact that his manager thinks he’s a lead-off hitter, DESPITE what the history shows about his stats in that spot in the order.
If Escobar were to go down for the year, THEN Kelly would be our “best” option. Hell, even then, he might not be, depending on how well that Blanco was doing with the stick.
But WHEN Escobar is healthy, HE is the best lead-off option.
Nowhere in any of MY posts regarding this topic, have I ragged on KJ. Just simply stated my opinion, based on numbers and what my eyes told me when Escobar was hitting lead-off, that Kelly is the wrong choice for that spot in the order.
My negativity has to do with his manager being a mule about it. Just the way he was with Remlinger coming in to face lefties, just the way he was with Andruw and the Clean-up spot last year. It only took me 25 games to break out Robert’s chant……
HEEE HAW!!!!
By Braveone
April 29, 2008 2:38 PM | Link to this
Hey DOB - I don’t beleive Boyer qualfies as a rookie as he has appeared in 50 games coming into the season. A rookie cannot have more than 45 days on a team’s active roster coming into the season.
By Braveone
April 29, 2008 2:38 PM | Link to this
Hey DOB - I don’t believe Boyer qualfies as a rookie as he has appeared in 50 games coming into the season. A rookie cannot have more than 45 days on a team’s active roster coming into the season.
By greg
April 29, 2008 2:44 PM | Link to this
Wow! There actually are Marlins fans. Who knew? Thanks, Man of Teal, for confirming that you exist. I mean Braves fans are sparse at the Ted (and that’s a disgrace), but Marlins fans must be as lonely as the Maytag Repairman. In the words of Santa Claus in the M&M commercial, “You really do exist.” Who knew?
By Mike
April 29, 2008 2:48 PM | Link to this
DOB, any word on Anthony Lerew? He pitched good in AAA Richmond and in his first start in the bigs before his elbow blew out. How is his rehab coming? Is he still on the Braves’ radar at this point?
By Bobby's Cox
April 29, 2008 2:48 PM | Link to this
Good Insight D.O.B.on the Braves Squads of the past, I remember in 2001 our offense did click til June, hopefully it will come earlier this year Tomahawkin
Ya the offense clicked until our “prototypical leadoff hitter” Furcal was lost for the season. Without a true leadoff hitter, most lineups will struggle.
By Shaun
April 29, 2008 2:50 PM | Link to this
Bobby’s Cox, I’m arguing that situational stats are largely meaningless at this point in the season and many are always much less meaningful than a player’s overall numbers.
I wouldn’t look at your art history test scores on Wednesday to figure out what kind of student you were. I’d look at your entire transcript.
By Thrillhouse44
April 29, 2008 2:51 PM | Link to this
Sniper, there’s less than a dozen if’s in DOB’s article. I’d say your Mets’ season hinges on more if’s than that.
By Allison
April 29, 2008 2:56 PM | Link to this
All I know is I can’t even ponder the future of the braves this year, until I know what is going on with smoltz. I was at the whole series this weekend supporting our braves. What happened to smoltz was one of the worst things I had to endure when being at shea. I have been going to shea for the last five years to support the braves. I will continue to do so. However, if smoltz is not able to have a productive season this year, it will be hard for me to keep the faith and watch the team.
By Tomahawkin
April 29, 2008 2:56 PM | Link to this
Bobby’s Cox I was referring to the offense before he was lost 4 the season during interleague play. (I should’ve cleared that up a little)Giles took over, although he was streaky he seemed to fill the slot at the time…
By Bobby's Cox
April 29, 2008 2:58 PM | Link to this
Wow! There actually are Marlins fans. Who knew? Thanks, Man of Teal, for confirming that you exist. I mean Braves fans are sparse at the Ted (and that’s a disgrace), but Marlins fans must be as lonely as the Maytag Repairman. In the words of Santa Claus in the M&M commercial, “You really do exist.” Who knew? Greg
Absolutely Hilarious.
By Bravesfan79
April 29, 2008 2:59 PM | Link to this
Man of Teal: WOW you mean theres ACTUALLY Marlins Fans!!???
As i write this i just realized im not the first person to think the same thing! lol… Man of teal, your team sucks, and will be exposed by July.
Yall didnt deserve those championships, yall have Eric Gregg to thank for one of those.
By Shaun
April 29, 2008 3:04 PM | Link to this
Bobby’s Cox, Diaz doesn’t hit lefties…see, you dig too deep into splits and you’ll find something.
By Rob Neyer
April 29, 2008 3:05 PM | Link to this
There is no such thing as putting pressure on the defense.
By SNIPER-69
April 29, 2008 3:05 PM | Link to this
Thrillhouse, Being that the Mets have a better record I’d say we are less dependent on the “IF” factor. If you feel comfortable with DOB using that amount of if’s to try and cheer you up so be it.
By Jim
April 29, 2008 3:08 PM | Link to this
From the tenor of this blog one gets the impression that the NL is a two-team league. Shouldn’t we be more concerned about the D-backs, and the Cubs if we want to get to the WS? Granted we need to either win the division or the wild-card to be in a position to get there in the first place, but the Marlins will be getting more of their pitching back in the coming weeks/months and the Phillies have strengthened their rotation and bullpen with the addition of Lidge. Both of these teams may present more of a challenge than the hated Mets! Maybe we need a few more Marlin fans (all 753 of them) to invade this space if we are to become less myopic about the Mets.
By SR
April 29, 2008 3:09 PM | Link to this
In chronological order:
1) Good posts re: KJ in the leadoff spot N8, dead on.
2) BravesDave- Another good post, does seem to be a carbon copy of the last couple of years. Mediocrity is now the name of the game with los Bravos.
3) Sniper69- True enough dude, Mets Phils have improved, Braves are running in place and Glavine and Smoltz are testing Father Time.
Win one, lose 2, win a couple, lose a couple, not the formula for success to be sure.
By N8
April 29, 2008 3:12 PM | Link to this
Shaun
“Bobby’s Cox, I’m arguing that situational stats are largely meaningless at this point in the season and many are always much less meaningful than a player’s overall numbers”
Once again, you are taking the human element completely out of the equation.
If a guy is a 85 percent free-throw shooter for his career, but hits them at only a 60 percent clip with 2:00 or less left in the 4th quarter, as a coach would you go by his “entire” numbers, or break it down a little bit, to put him and the TEAM in a better chance to succeed?
The fact that you are ignoring “situational” stats, just shows how big the HOLE in your run differential theory is.
How else do you explain a team that is +26 (124-98) in the runs scored vs. runs allowed category, is 12-13 (0-8 in 1-run games)?
Oh yeah. That’s riiiiiight. “Bad luck”, right?
HOGWASH.
Chipper slipping on a wet infield in SF and feeling that pain for weeks, is “bad luck”.
KJ failing in the lead-off role over a 99 game stretch is NOT bad luck, it’s poor execution in certain situations.
Bobby CONTINUING to put KJ in the lead-off spot, is NOT bad luck, it’s something AND IDIOT would do.
I’ll tell you one thing that IS LUCKY. That the Mets and Phillies are just as “unlucky” as us. :-)
By REASON
April 29, 2008 3:17 PM | Link to this
The only time April stats mean anything is when you are horrible team like the Nationals. Its May and June when teams get in routines and grooves, over initial injuries, etc. Yall can write off all you want, this team is legit. Have you ever noticed that the ones that panic and think they know more than Bobby Cox post like 7 paragraphs at a time (N8).
By BT
April 29, 2008 3:18 PM | Link to this
Who is going to be sent down when Glavine is brought back today?
By David O'Brien
April 29, 2008 3:18 PM | Link to this
Braveone, you’re right — his service time on the 60-day DL precludes Boyer from being a rookie….
BravesDave: Saw the Verve in San Francisco about 10 years ago. Incredible show. Great band….
DOB, one last thing. Your article has a lot of IF’SSniper
Sniper: Your posts have a lot of nothing.
By Thrillhouse44
April 29, 2008 3:19 PM | Link to this
You’re right, Sniper. How dare I question the Muts when they’ve won a whole game more than the Braves? IF that one game makes you think the Mets are so much better than the Braves, so be it. Like I said, your guys have their ifs, the Braves have theirs.
By McFann
April 29, 2008 3:20 PM | Link to this
Dude! They’v