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Wednesday, April 23, 2008
Smoltz and the Hall of Fame
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Now about that Furcal proposal….
Just kidding, folks. We exhausted that debate from every possible angle, and a few things have transpired since the Dodgers left town anyway (including Andruw Jones moving to eighth in L.A.’s batting order, then to the bench last night).
John Smoltz and the Braves, that’s what we’re here to discuss.
It was unfortunate that Smoltz’s historic 3,000th strikeout last night had to come in a loss that snapped a five-game Braves winning streak. Errors, a few terrible pitches by relievers, and no big hits conspired for a 6-0 defeat.
But if you were there, you know that there was an electric atmosphere that raised the hairs on your arms when Smoltz got to two strikes on Felipe Lopez in the third inning. Only 23,000-plus in attendance, but all of them were on their feet and clapping when Smoltz delivered that nasty split that Lopez flailed at.
And so, Atlanta’s Bearded Icon joins a club with only 16 members, the 3,000-strikeout group. Look at those names on that list and you again start to wonder how there could even have been a debate in the last couple of years over whether Smoltz has done enough to be voted into the Hall of Fame.
Of course he has. Let’s see: 210 wins, 154 saves (in 168 opportunties) and 3,006 strikeouts, not to mention a 15-4 postseason record and four saves with 194 strikeouts and a .218 opponents’ average in 40 postseason games (27 starts).
All this despite four elbow surgeries and a full season lost to TJ surgery rehab.
At this point, I really think the debate is turning to whether Smoltz will be a first-ballot Hall of Famer, not whether he gets in. And I don’t know about first ballot.
Probably needs to have a couple more solid seasons to make it on the first ballot. Given the way he’s viewed by voters, if it’s an otherwise borderline call he’ll get it. Can’t think of any pitcher in this era, except Greg Maddux, who has better numbers and also has as much universal respect while also being completely free of any PED suspicion (a legit consideration these days when folks are voting).
Future Hall of Famer Tom Glavine has far more wins, while Smoltz has the edge over his buddy in strikeouts, ERA, postseason numbers and obviously the closer stats, a unique variable when voters go to consider Smoltz. Only Eckersley is a comparable case, but even his numbers are very different — 600 fewer strikeouts, 13 fewer wins (and counting), but 236 more saves. In the postseason, Eck had a 5-6 record and 15 saves.
The point is, I can’t see Smoltz being kept out of the Hall. Not after his success in his return to starting. He’s surpassed seemingly everyone’s (except his own) expectations since moving back from the bullpen.
Many of us thought it was a bad move by Smoltz, that his elbow wouldn’t withstand the rigors of starting. Many of us were wrong.
Since returning to the starting rotation in 2005, Smoltz is 47-25 with a 3.14 ERA in 104 starts, with 608 strikeouts against 161 walks in 690-1/3 inings.
And few pitchers are a smarter bet at home than Smoltz, who in that span has produced a 27-14 record and 2.73 ERA in 53 starts at Turner Field.
And while he’s not churning out the innings he once did, Smoltz, particularly at home, has actually been more consistent since the middle of the 2006 season, despite pitching many games in varying degrees of shoulder pain.
Since July 1, 2006 he’s 18-8 with a 2.53 ERA and .222 opponents’ average in 29 home starts, with 194 strikeouts in 195-2/3 innings. In those eight home losses, the Braves scored one or no runs while he was in the games.
”A 19-year-old righthander”… An AJC colleague did some research to find the first mention of Smoltz in our paper, and the story he found makes for excellent perspective, or context, or whatever the right word is, in light of Smoltz’s 3,000th strikeout last night.
It was written by Gerry Fraley, the fine former Braves beat writer for the AJC who went on to write great stuff for the Dallas Morning News and is now free-lancing for several publications.
I’m just going to run it for you in full. Read the whole thing. The Braves/MIB denizens will get a kick out of it, I think. It ran on Aug. 13, 1987:
San Diego — The Atlanta Braves, diving wholeheartedly into a rebuilding process, wrote off 1987 Wednesday by trading Doyle Alexander to Detroit for a minor-league pitcher.
The Braves, who defeated the San Diego Padres 2-1 Wednesday night, acquired John Smoltz, a 19-year-old righthander with Glens Falls, N.Y. (Eastern) from the Tigers. To replace Alexander, the Braves recalled lefthander Tom Glavine from Richmond, Va. (International).
Glavine, who is 6-12 with a 3.40 ERA at Richmond, will make his major-league debut Monday at Houston. Smoltz, known for throwing hard but not always accurately, will go to Richmond.
“We want to keep adding arms and build for the future,” general manager Bobby Cox said. “That doesn’t mean we don’t want to win now. Trading Doyle doesn’t affect that.
“Our plan has been to get as many good arms as we can. There’s no question Doyle is one of the top pitchers in the game. But right now, he’s better off with a team that’s a contender.”
There could soon be other trades as the Braves dispatch veterans and add players for their farm system. The Braves have had talks with the New York Yankees and Toronto concerning starter David Palmer and reliever Gene Garber.
Palmer’s start Thursday afternoon against San Diego will be significant to the process. Toronto has sent another of its top scouts, Gordon Lakey, to judge Palmer. Because AL East rival Detroit acquired Alexander, the Blue Jays may feel more urgency to act on Palmer.
“One thing might get them all started, “ manager Chuck Tanner said. “We like the direction we’re going in. We’re doing things this year for the future.”
The change in the state of the Braves can be measured by Alexander’s stay with them. They acquired him from Toronto on July 5, 1986, for Duane Ward. The Braves were 2 1/2 games out of first place that day, and they added Alexander to help in the try for a title.
Now, Detroit chases a pennant and looks for short-term help. The Braves regroup for the future. Smoltz, the Tigers’ 22nd-round pick in the June 1985, draft from Lansing, Mich., Waverly High School, was 4-10 with a 5.68 ERA with 86 strikeouts and 81 walks in 130 innings at Glens Falls.
“It’s interesting because of the situation we’re in now,” outfielder Dale Murphy said. “We’re going to a youth movement. I’m not going to stop feeling positive about the club. I’m confident about the direction our club is going in.”
Alexander, as a free agent, held out until early May. He took a one- year contract at $400,000 with an option on a second season. The contract haggling soured Alexander, and he expected to be traded. Alexander was 5- 10 with a 4.13 ERA. He had just one win in his last 10 starts.
“With everything that happened with this ballclub last winter, it’s probably just as well this happened,” said Alexander, going to his eighth major-league team. “There are still some hard feelings between us. But I went out and did the best I could. That’s all I could do.
“This team needs young talent. It’s a lot more exciting to be in a pennant race. That’s where everybody wants to be. I would have liked to have done that here, but unfortunately this ballclub isn’t there. This organization has a long way to go.”
The Braves will use the final 50 games for experimentation. At least one pitcher, Peter Smith, and possibly several more could be recalled from the farm system when rosters expand Sept. 1. Derek Lilliquist is a strong possibility to appear in the majors this season.
The Braves will also use 21-year-old shortstop Jeff Blauser for at least the next three weeks. Starter Andres Thomas was examined in Atlanta on Wednesday by Dr. Robert Wells. He found a sprained medial collateral ligament in the left knee and suggested Thomas be held out of action for at least three weeks.
This is Thomas’ second stay on the disabled list for 1987. The Braves would like to use him in the final weeks, but they are not optimistic.
“It depends on how much he can do and whether he’s worked out,” Tanner said. “It would be good for him to finish the season strong, but we don’t want to do anything that could hurt him.”
Blauser has made fielding errors in his first two major-league starts. Something about his play, however, triggered memories for San Diego manager Larry Bowa.
“He’s smooth,” said Bowa, whose .980 fielding percentage for 16 major-league seasons is a record for shortstops. “He’s got good actions. He sort of reminded me of myself. I saw a little bit of me in him.”
Eventually, the Braves must decide whether Blauser plays shortstop or second base. If he remains at shortstop, the Braves must choose between the flamboyant Thomas, who has 41 errors in 199 major-league games, or the solid if unspectacular Blauser. “I like the steady shortstop who makes all the plays,” Cox said.
“Everybody loves the great plays, but how many of them really are there? Blauser can play great defense. So can Thomas. We have to wait and see what way to go.”
The planning for the rise starts now. Out with the old and in with the new for the Braves.
Kotsay against lefties: Mark Kotsay is off to a fine start against right-handed pitchers, batting .342 (13-for-38) with five extra-base hits, four walks, four RBI a .405 OBP and .579 slugging percentage.
But against lefties, the veteran left-handed hitter is just 5-for-32 (.156) with one extra-base hit, one RBI, a .229 OBP and .188 slugging percentage.
Though Gregor Blanco also hits left-handed, the rookie might get more at-bats against lefties as long as he wields a hot bat. Blanco is 2-for-3 with a walk against lefties and 6-for-15 (.400) against right-handers.
Speaking of lefties, the Braves have faced more of them than any other team in the majors so far this season, just as they did last season (that’s really strange, that stat).
And while the Braves are hitting a solid .283 against lefties (sixth in the NL), their .332 OBP against lefties is very low. They’ve got far more strikeouts (34) than walks (23) in 297 at-bats against lefty pitchers.
The pitching streak: The Braves’ winning streak ended, but it didn’t do much to hurt their ERA. Four of six runs last night were unearned, the sixth consecutive game in which the Braves have allowed two earned runs or fewer.
They are 5-1 with a .311 team batting average and 1.17 ERA in their past six games, outscoring opponents 31-12 in that span. Of course, five of the games were against the Dodgers and Nationals….
Speaking of Dodgers, Andruw Jones was dropped to eighth in the order two nights ago, and was benched last night (he struck out as a pinch-hitter late).
For those of us who didn’t think Andruw could possibly have another season as as he had in 2007, I’m starting to wonder. His .156 batting average is second-lowest among NL regulars (former Brave Adam LaRoche is worst in the majors), and Andruw is a majors-worst 4-for-45 (.089) against right-handers.
He’s third in the NL with 23 strikeouts (in 64 at-bats).
Andruw is 2-for-34 with runners on base, 1-for-16 with runners in scoring position.
Yates, etc.: The decision to keep Chris Resop and trade Tyler Yates has stirred debate on the Braves/MIB front, understandable as Resop has been rather woeful a few times out, and Yates got off to a very strong start.
But as a few astute denizens have pointed out, let’s not jump to conclusions too quickly, at least regarding Yates. He’s given up five runs, four hits and four walks in 1-2/3 innings over his past two appearances.
His ERA’s up to 5.06 and he has nine walks with six strikeouts in 10-2/3 innings.
So while Resop remains a question mark (will he ever fulfill his potential?), at least there is a question. Does anyone who watched Yates all of last season believe he’d be a difference-maker for a contender?
Since July 1, 2007, he has a 6.97 ERA and .291 opponents’ average in 48 appearances, with 48 hits, 25 walks and 40 strikeouts in 41-1/3 innings.
Observations: Anyone who thinks some visiting managers who like to smoke cigars are going to have to go out to the parking lot to do so now at the fully “smoke-free” Shea Stadium … well, I’ll believe that when I see it. Political correctness doesn’t transcend the clubhouse door, which frankly is quite refreshing in most cases…. Braves face Andruw Miller tonight in the opener of a two-game set with Florida. The former Detroit prospect is 0-4 with a 12.15 ERA and .408 opponents’ average in seven starts since Aug. 3. Yikes.
Great tunes: So many great new releases in recent weeks, hard to keep up. Three that I’ll give strong recommendations: Nick Cave and the Bad Seeds’ Dig, Lazarus, Dig in which the Aussie-born bard and his band are in top form, dark and humorous. Sun Kil Moon’s April. If you liked the previous work by Mark Kozelak (Red House Painters), you’ll like this. If you didn’t like the other stuff, or aren’t familiar with him, then try to sample it somewhere first. It’s not for everyone. Not party music, that’s for sure. But for sitting around on a rainy morning or late at night, or contemplating where your life went wrong, it’s perfect. And finally, John Hiatt fans are going to love his new one, out May 6. Don at Ella gave me an advance copy, and it’s tremendous. Hiatt is hitting another peak.
Oh, and can’t forget the expanded reissues of The Replacements’ first recordings on the Twin/Tone label. They’re out now, and if you were too young or just missed the ‘Mats when they ruled a certain corner the alt-rock earth, then by all means do yourselves a favor and splurge on their brilliant Let It Be album (Yes, they had the stones to name their album Let It Be). No better band from a period during the 1980s. Maybe a couple that were as good (REM, Smiths, Husker Du, etc.), but none better.
Really good story on Replacements in latest issue of Spin, with fine cover story on My Morning Jacket. Anyone heard any advance stuff of their forthcoming (at least I don’t think it’s out yet) CD? Can’t wait to get that. MMJ’s a stellar unit.
”LITTLE BONNIE” by Patterson Hood (Drive-By Truckers)
On the day that she was buried
Her daddy stood out by the cemetery fence
Prayed to God for forgiveness
For surely all of this is punishment for my sins
They put her in the family garden
Said you could hear his heart breaking miles away
All the men pitched in and bought a marble angel
To mark the piece of land where little Bonnie lay
My grandma said she would keep her in the mornings
So her mama could sleep a bit and do the chores and such
She’d read her stories about little girls and magic powers
That would never let a pretty angel hurt
Her mama’s always been a beauty
She’s still beautiful to this very day
But they say Bonnie’s crystal eyes put the stars to shame
Maybe heaven needed Bonnie’s face
My grandma said she would keep her in the mornings
A swollen angel who never would complain
She’d read her stories about little girls and princesses
Whose daddy’s don’t feel punished for what heaven takes away
Little Bonnie never married
Little Bonnie never even made it four
But I grew up in her presence
Even though she was gone before I’s born
Even though she was gone before I’s born
