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Tuesday, April 8, 2008
0-4 in one-run games … look out
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Denver — Before we look ahead, let’s take a look back, shall we?
To last season, July 28, a Saturday at Arizona, hot as Hades outside and hot under the collars in the Braves clubhouse after a 4-3, 10-inning loss against the Diamondbacks, and an 8-7, 11-inning loss to the same team the night before.
“We’re not winning the close games, not to overstate the obvious,” said John Smoltz, who had allowed three runs in seven innings. “When a team’s hot like Arizona, it seems like they win everything.”
Then he said of the next day’s series finale, with Tim Hudson on the mound: “We’ve got to win. We’ve got to find a way. We’ve got the right guy going.”
The Braves did find a way to win the next day, by scoring a ton of runs in support of a dominant Hudson in a 14-0 win.
But the damage had already been done. With that Saturday loss, the Braves had dropped nine of 13 games since a 7-1 surge, and fallen to 4-1/2 games behind the New York Mets and a half-game behind Philly.
They were 12-15 in one-run games and 3-6 in extra-inning games at the end of July, and it was wearing on everyone. The Braves wouldn’t get closer than 2-1/2 games to the NL East lead the rest of the season.
We bring this up because we’re not quite 1-1/2 weeks into the new season, and already it’s wearing on nerves. The close-game thing, we’re talking about. The Braves are 0-4 in one-run games after last night’s 2-1 defeat at Coors Field.
Glavine pitches 6-1/3 scoreless innings, Moylan works in and out of a jam, and Blaine Boyer gives up a two-run bomb to Matt Holliday in the eighth inning.
The offense did absolutely nothing after Chipper Jones’ first-inning RBI double against Aaron Cook. Just three hits total for a Braves team that had hit .331 in the past two seasons at Coors Field, better than any other visiting team.
And a Braves team that had hit .312 with seven homers and 38 runs in a five-game homestand with the Pirates and Mets before hitting the road.
Hey, Cook had a great night. He was dealin’. But three hits is horrendous, and the Braves were overly aggressive, especially as the night wore on.
They’ve hit .312 at home this season and .136 with only three runs scored in two road games.
Now, it’s far, far too early to start projecting stats and worrying about this trend or that. Too early to get overly concerned about a bullpen that’s 0-4 with a 5.33 ERA (compared to a rotation that’s 2-0 with a 2.33 ERA).
But one thing should be a red flag to the Braves: That 0-4 record in one-run games.
I’m not one that puts too much stock in most teams’ one-run records, because I do believe that, in most cases, records in one-run games are rather random and have plenty to do with luck, perhaps more than anything else.
In most cases.
But when a team is either extraordinarily good or extraordinarily bad in one-run games to begin a season, or even for a significant period within the season, I definitely believe that can either boost or undermine the team’s overall confidence in those situations.
In other words, teams that start out by winning all or most of their one-run games, start to believe and feel more confident a relaxed in the late innings of close games. This is not revolutionary thinking. It’s just common sense. And it’s true, according to many players I’ve talked to about this subject.
Same goes for teams that start out losing all or most of those close games. And not just in baseball.
If it keeps happening, some players, especially younger players, start to wonder when something bad is going to happen in the late innings. They start to play not to lose, rather than play to win. Or they just tense up and put too much pressure on themselves to make something bit happen, to hit a homer or to make a perfect pitch, rather than relaxing, thinking and performing.
That’s a big problem, or at least it can be.
Someone on the blog here pointed out today or last night that the last two World Series championship teams had losing records in one-run games — St. Louis (22-27) in 2006 and Boston (22-28) in 2007.
Like I said, a team’s record in one-run games is random in most cases, has more to do with luck than skill or managerial expertise or whatever. But when it’s extreme, especially in the early season, well, it’s a problem. Or it can be.
The Braves had that dreadful road trip to San Francisco and Arizona last July, where they had four consecutive losses by scores of 2-1, 4-2, 8-7 in 11 innings, and 4-3 in 10 innings. That dropped them to 12-15 in one-run games, and the spiral continued to an 18-25 season record in one-run decisions.
That after they posted a 19-33 record in one-run games with a leaky bullpen in 2006.
This year’s bullpen has a lot of talent. Some of it is quite inexperienced.
Closer Rafael Soriano (he’s got plenty of experience, abeit in a setup role) pitched only a couple of weeks in spring training because of a sore elbow, and I said at the time that I didn’t think Bobby Cox would be able to use Soriano heavily in the first weeks of the season the way he had used him as a setup man a year ago.
Last night Soriano, after pitching Saturday in a blowout and Sunday in a save situation, was getting the night off. Manny Acosta (also relatively inexperienced) was going to close if it got to that. It didn’t get to that.
The Braves had better hope that they can rely on more than Peter Moylan and Will Ohman, who are the only National League relievers with more than five relief appearances already this season (they each have six).
The offense will have many more good nights than nights like last night. But the bullpen had best get straightened out, or else the Braves are in danger of developing that negative attitude that can infiltrate a team that begins to expect to lose close games.
You absolutely do not want that to happen in the early season, not for a team that undoubtedly has the starting rotation and the lineup to contend for the NL East title.
By the way, all joking about Mark Redman aside, I don’t know that most Braves are so eager to face him Wednesday, considering what he’s done against them in the past. Chipper Jones is 3-for-16 against the lefty thumber, and Mark Teixeira is 0-for-10 with four strikeouts.
Chuck James will be going for the Braves, and he’s given up a lot to a few Colorado hitters, including Ryan Spilborghs (3-for-5 with two homers) and Matt Holliday (4-for-8 with a homer).
But first, we’ve got an enticing matchup of youngsters tonight, the Braves’ Jair Jurrjens facing Colorado’s Ubaldo Jimenez, who has a 3.81 ERA in nine starts at Coors and has allowed three earned runs or fewer in eight of those.
Oh, music note: I saw a great review of the new Was (Not Was) album, Boo!. Anyone hear it yet?
“ARE YOU READY FOR THE COUNTRY” by Neil Young
Slipping and sliding
and playing domino
Lefting and then Righting,
it’s not a crime you know.
You gotta tell your story boy,
before it’s time to go.
Are you ready for the country
because it’s time to go
Are you ready for the country
because it’s time to go
I was talkin’ to the preacher,
said God was on my side
Then I ran into the hangman,
he said it’s time to die
You gotta tell your story boy,
you know the reason why.
Are you ready for the country
because it’s time to go
Are you ready for the country
because it’s time to go
