Braves

By David-ATL14

January 14, 2008 3:04 PM | Link to this

First?? Doubtful??

Gary Oldman’s two most memorable characters IMO

* Drexel Spivey* in True Romance

* Lt. Norman Stansfield* in The Professional or Leon in it’s European Title.

Anyway you slice it the man’s a Master Thespian

Solid pickup by the Braves of Kotsay.

By 1957 Braves Fan

January 14, 2008 3:11 PM | Link to this

If the A’s get Kris Medlin and Joey Devine then Kotsay better take us to the World Series.

By Jared

January 14, 2008 3:13 PM | Link to this

Escobar and Johnson should absolutely be the two at the top of the batting order, in whatever order. What sense does it make to have a lower OBP guy in Kotsay bat second and put Johnson in the eight spot, apparently so pitchers can have more chances to bunt, as Bowman said in his mailbag thing today?

By Thrillhouse44

January 14, 2008 3:13 PM | Link to this

ESPN Radio said the Yankees pulled out of the Santana talks. Who’s left besides the Mets?

By John Adcox

January 14, 2008 3:15 PM | Link to this

Seems to me, the Braves have done an excellent job this off season of giving themselves two things they lacked last year: depth and options. Plus, they have some flexibility and perhaps even some attractive bargaining chips to make moves in July if needed. I’m actually beginning to hope the writers’ strike lasts until Spring Training so that I can catch some games…

This is going to be one entertaining year with a team that’s a genuine pleasure to root for.

John

By Jerry

January 14, 2008 3:16 PM | Link to this

A few thoughts while waiting for the expected announcement from the Braves that Mark Kotsay has passed his physical and the center field gap has been stopped

DOB Is the announcement going to be today or tommorrow????

By Damon Berryhill

January 14, 2008 3:16 PM | Link to this

Lopez doesn’t have the ripped, muscular physique he had in 2003 Funny how his career declined around the same time they started testing for performance enhancing drugs.

By Daybed Wagmoe

January 14, 2008 3:21 PM | Link to this

Kotsay-for-Joey Devine (and $5.35 mill)

sorry to be nit-picky, but shouldn’t that say, “Kostay (and $5.35 mill)-for-Joey Devine”?

By Serge

January 14, 2008 3:22 PM | Link to this

Kotsay hasnt been healthy in ages. Passing a Braves physical wont change that. Remember Mike Gonzales?

By Beisbol

January 14, 2008 3:28 PM | Link to this

Wow. Great to hear about Bennett. Love hearing about hungry players who don’t get fat off a taste of success. Dude sounds like he got a taste of it, loved the taste, decided to delay gratification, and is gonna starve himself until he is eating a five course meal at a five star restaurant every night for 6 months. Damn. That is so impressive.

A career minor leaguer who has suffered career threatening injuries, has been given up for dead, is fighting. If he never got called up, would he have worked this hard? If Wren didn’t declare there would be competition for the fifth spot, would he have starved himself? Would he have a reason to believe?

I love Chuck James but he better recognize that Jair, JoJo, and Jeff have a slingblade and aim to kill him with it.

Sounds like Bennett has been singing some Johnny Cash this winter:

I bet there’s rich folks eatin’, In a fancy dining car, They’re probably drinkin’ coffee, And smokin’ big cigars, But I know I had it comin’, I know I can’t be free, But those people keep a-movin’, And that’s what tortures me.

Well, if they freed me from Richmond, If that railroad train was mine, I bet I’d move out over a little, Farther down the line, Far from Richmond Prison, That’s where I want to stay, And I’d let that lonesome whistle, Blow my Blues away.

By Hammy the Brave

January 14, 2008 3:31 PM | Link to this

DOB,

Thanks for the new blog, especially for those fans who couldn’t make it to FanFest.

What do you hear about FW’s interest in getting more bullpen help, especially a lefty? Don’t you think he could go after an unknown, like Reynel Pinto from the Marlins? He seems to have similar batting average against stats, between righties and lefties, the last 2 yrs.

Also, with the trade for Kotsay and losing Andrew, aren’t you concerned we’re getting too lefty-loaded in the lineup? Isn’t FW considering getting a righty to back up Kotsay, like Raji Davis in San Fran? Also, isn’t he trying to get more righty power in the OF, like Juan Rivera with the Angels, who’s trade value should be very low right now.

Thanks for your reply,

Hammy the Brave

By Daybed Wagmoe

January 14, 2008 3:32 PM | Link to this

so much bold on the blog!

By Steve McP

January 14, 2008 3:32 PM | Link to this

DOB - just a reference to your comments on Javy - you mention that he doesn’t have the ripped, muscular physique he had in 2003, but how did he look? Did he seem fit and in good shape generally to give ST a real go?

By Richard Simmons

January 14, 2008 3:37 PM | Link to this

Is that why the Braves signed Glavine? So Bennett could go Sweating With The Oldies?

By sambo

January 14, 2008 3:38 PM | Link to this

I’d like to see that slinky cat Sam Miller in center! He could maybe pass the physical, but no telling about the steroid testing!

By dgd

January 14, 2008 3:40 PM | Link to this

I agree with your batting order DOB, except that I bet it’s 5)McCan, 6)Francouer, 7)Johnson, 8)Brandon Jones against righties, and 5)Francouer, 6)McCan, 7)Diaz, and 8) Johnson against lefties. Also, not thrilled at the news that the Braves are giving up another prospect in the Kotsay trade. Reminds me too much of the Tex trade when we kept adding and adding until we turned a good trade into a bad one. (Yes, unless the Braves win the world series this year, I think we’re going to be bemoaning that trade for a long time. Harrison looks ready to be a solid big league starter right now, in addition to the other four players.)….

By DAP

January 14, 2008 3:43 PM | Link to this

Jared i think most people figure johnson will bay 7th, not 8th, which gives him a chance to use his power to drive in runs, and keep rallys going. the rational behind batting kotsay 2nd instead of johnson probably has a bit to do with kotsay strikeing out about half as much as johnson.

johnson has a high K rate as well as a good OBP which i think makes him better for leadoff than 2nd, where a strikeout does nothing to advance a runner.

kotsay seems to be a contact hitter kinda like renteria, which is good for #2, and while kotsay has never approached renteria’s .390 OBP from last year, his career OBP is only 10 points lower than edgar’s. hes not a terrible OBP guy.

By Cliff

January 14, 2008 3:46 PM | Link to this

Surely the Braves management has enough sense to bat Kotsay lower. IF they get him at near his peak he is still not good enough OBP to bat higher than 8th on this club.

By David O'Brien

January 14, 2008 3:46 PM | Link to this

Steve McP, he looked to be in great shape.

By Anders

January 14, 2008 3:54 PM | Link to this

Thrillhouse 44

As I’ve been saying all along, the Red Sox and Yanks don’t really want to trade all those prospects and pay Santana, they just don’t want the other guy to get him. Minaya is playing this the only way he can. Wait until the Twins are forced to make a move, then throw Martinez in with Gomez and others - over pay Santana (because we can) and he’s theirs. I’m not saying it’s a lock but everyday that goes by certainly helps. When’s the last time any player the Yanks or the Sox wanted stayed out there this long? That would be never. I give Santana about a week before he says “Either trade me now or I won’t waive my no trade.” No way he wants to go to spring training and risk injury when he’s got $100 mil+ locked up.

By DAP

January 14, 2008 4:01 PM | Link to this

Cliff if the braves bat kotsay 8th (which im not oppossed to them doing, though i dont think they will) i just hope they dont bat johnson 2nd. id say johnson to leadoff then escobar.

By BosnianBaller

January 14, 2008 4:14 PM | Link to this

The pitching is the big question what happens if soriano goes down who would step up to be the closer.

By Tomahawkin

January 14, 2008 4:17 PM | Link to this

I’d figure if we get as many games out of Kotsay as we can Chipper, we’ll be in the bank, great 1 year stopgap deal I think…

By ncscoots

January 14, 2008 4:17 PM | Link to this

It would be interesting to see the breakdown of KJ’s strikeouts looking vs. swinging (interesting, anyway, as long as it’s someone besides me doing the research, LOL).

By David O'Brien

January 14, 2008 4:20 PM | Link to this

CLIFF wrote: “Surely the Braves management has enough sense to bat Kotsay lower. IF they get him at near his peak he is still not good enough OBP to bat higher than 8th on this club.”

Really? Wow, this must be one hell of a lineup then.

Kotsay in 2004:.314 with 37 doubles, 15 homers and a .370 on-base percentage, and finished 14th in American League MVP balloting.

That wouldn’t be good enough to bat higher than eighth for the Braves, huh?

By BossLady

January 14, 2008 4:25 PM | Link to this

We are hearing a great deal about age and conditions. What we are not taking into account the games when we go into “hostile” and pressured stadiums and the young guys freak out.

Glavine, Smoltz, Kotsay could care less about the crowd noise and stress on the road. Experience is also important in these areas. What good is a guy batting .305 but chokes when on the road, like Philadelphia, New York (2)and Los Angeles.

That’s what a Julio, Javy and Kotsay Chipper and Tex can do for us, look the pitcher and the crowd in the eyes and hit the ball. Some of the young guys imped out last year in the really stressing at bats.

By Overlord

January 14, 2008 4:32 PM | Link to this

BosnianBaller if soriano goes down, i can think of acosta and moylan as closers

By TennesseePaul

January 14, 2008 4:37 PM | Link to this

Jared: DAP covered it well. Johnson had more time in 2nd place last season than 7th but was subpar as a #2 hitter. He’d be a good leadoff guy due to the number of pitches he sees but Yunel had more success as a leadoff batter. Kotsay has great success in the top 2 spots and has a good K/BB ratio. Add to that Johnson in 7th improved McCann and Francoeurs performance and you have another plus. And again with the 7th or 8th guy being able to get on frequent enough the sac-bunt will be more effective.

All of that hinges on Kotsay being healthy. Hope he is. But there are many pluses to having a guy like KJ in the 7th spot and putting Kotsay 2nd. With Chipper and Teixeira behind a guy who makes good contact and doesn’t K much there should be a lot of RBI chances. It should make for a good scoring team.

By Novice Ned

January 14, 2008 4:39 PM | Link to this

DOB, what were Andruw’s stats 4 years ago? Come on, who cares what Kotsay did 4 years ago? I bet you Craig Wilson had decent stats 4 years ago too.

By Evan

January 14, 2008 4:44 PM | Link to this

DOB, while i agree that kotsay’s 2004 numbers more than merit batting higher in the lineup, let’s be honest, he hasn’t been close to those numbers in recent years. while i would love for him to be the 2004 kotsay, i think its more likely we see kotsay of recent years—the kotsay that should be batting 8th.

By TennesseePaul

January 14, 2008 4:52 PM | Link to this

So, using the splits of some, if not all, of the players in the line up speculated the results show a potential to score 5.517 runs a game. Last season the team averaged 5 runs a game. The pitching staff has the ability to keep the Runs Allowed down around a 4.5 run-per-game mark. At least that was what they managed last season. And it could have improved with the added pitching depth.

By McFann

January 14, 2008 4:52 PM | Link to this

Saw a post by…somebody…on the last blog. Yeah, I wish the Braves would have shipped Yates packing to Oakland. Never really liked that guy a whole lot.

Mo

McCann’s stats batting sixth: 24 for 85 (.282) 6 2B, 2 HR, 4 BB, 10 K, 8 RBIs

Batting fifth: 76 for 274 (.277) 21 2B, 11 HR, 24 BB, 44 K, 50 RBIs

And just for the heck of it:

Batting seventh: 19 for 84 (.226) 4 2B, 4 HR, 4 BB, 13 K, 22 RBIs

Hope that helps.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves in 2008)

January 14, 2008 4:53 PM | Link to this

Sounds like Chuck James better bring his A Game to spring training. Otherwise , he could be out of a job.

Any word on who and if there really is a second pitcher involved in the Kotsay trade ?

By David O'Brien

January 14, 2008 4:54 PM | Link to this

Ned, what part of this comment from Chris did you not understand: “Surely the Braves management has enough sense to bat Kotsay lower. IF they get him at near his peak he is still not good enough OBP to bat higher than 8th on this club.”

I was responding to that.

Don’t be such a Novice, Ned. Read the exchanges, the back-and-forth exchanges, before you comment.

By Mac

January 14, 2008 4:56 PM | Link to this

Kotsay’s career OBP is .337, which is lower, I believe, than any other likely regular’s but Francoeur’s. It’s 23 points lower than Johnson’s, (38 lower than Johnson’s 2007) whom he’s likely to displace to seventh or eighth. And if you care about such things, he’s been caught stealing 36.4 percent of the time (even more later in his career), which is well below the break-even rate. This is not the sort of player you want hitting high in the order unless he’s at the absolute peak of his game.

By Josh H

January 14, 2008 4:57 PM | Link to this

Lineup too lefty oriented?

Escobar - Righty KJ - Lefty Chipper - Both…and last season no one wanted to face him as a lefty… Tex - Both McCann - Lefty Francouer - Righty Diaz - Righty B. Jones - Lefty Kotsay - Lefty

Only three regular position players are lefties. Having Chipper and Tex really helps in that regard since by default, since when included with a left field platoon, only two other position players (Francouer and Escobar) are righties.

The bench:

Infante: Right Thorman: Lefty Diaz/B. Jones: Left/Right Lopez: Lefty? I don’t remember. ?? there in regards to backup catcher Other infielder: Who knows.

By David O'Brien

January 14, 2008 5:00 PM | Link to this

Can a couple of you really not understand that I was merely refuting Cliff’s assertion that Kotsay at his peak couldn’t have batted higher than 8th in this lineup? That’s it. That’s the direct comment I was responding to. No one said what Kotsay did the last two years warranted hitting higher.

In the blog I said IF HEALTHY I’d guess he would bat second. Wouldn’t surprise me if he hit anywhere else, other than second or third.

And by the way, before his back started flaring up in 2006, Kotsay hit .295 with 10 doubles, three triples, two homers, 19 RBIs and a .355 OBP in his first 41 games. The back was never right after that.

By Jared

January 14, 2008 5:02 PM | Link to this

Kotsay’s OBP is very unlikely to be at Escobar or Johnson’s level next season. He should not be in the one or two hole, getting on base less, when the Atlanta Braves have two more deserving candidates.

By Daybed Wagmoe

January 14, 2008 5:02 PM | Link to this

*Kotsay in 2004:.314 with 37 doubles, 15 homers and a .370 on-base percentage, and finished 14th in American League MVP balloting.

That wouldn’t be good enough to bat higher than eighth for the Braves, huh?*

If this was 2005, that would be good enough. Since then, his average, games played, at-bats, and OBP (and most other stats) have diminished annually. Sure, he was great in 2004, but you just can’t overlook 3 years.

But I get your point, which is that those stats show what he’s capable of doing if he’s in the lineup on a regular basis. I’m excited about him hitting in the no. 2 position — I don’t think it’s wise to put two young hitters such as Escobar and KJ (as good as they are) at the top of the lineup when you have a good veteran hitter as an option as well.

By Shaun

January 14, 2008 5:05 PM | Link to this

I agree with CLIFF that Kotsay may be one of the Braves weaker hitters but I’m not sure if that’s saying much because this is a good if not great offensive club. I expect Kotsay to be at least close to average offensively.

By McFann

January 14, 2008 5:05 PM | Link to this

And again with the 7th or 8th guy being able to get on frequent enough the sac-bunt will be more effective. 10Paul

Any sac-bunt would be more effective than last year. I think 2007 will be remembered as the year of the Bunt Curse. Ha! The Braves as a team had 55 SHs!! John Smoltz was the best with 13. The next best was Chuck James with 8.

By TennesseePaul

January 14, 2008 5:06 PM | Link to this

Johnson’s OBP in the 2 hole was .350, only 13 points higher than Kotsay’s career mark and only 6 points higher than Kotsay’s career mark from the #2 hole. It all goes back to Kotsay being healthy. If he’s healthy, he’ll be fine.

By Roger

January 14, 2008 5:07 PM | Link to this

I’d take Kelly over Kotsay at #2 for ‘08. At any rate, Yuniel, Kelly, and Kotsay all have the ability to hit in the 2nd spot at their best, and one of them will be stuck in the 7th or 8th spot. If everyone’s healthy and producing normally, this is a very deep lineup. You could make a case that every hitter here would be hitting at least 6th in a typical lineup.

By Roger

January 14, 2008 5:08 PM | Link to this

I’d take Kelly over Kotsay at #2 for ‘08. At any rate, Yuniel, Kelly, and Kotsay all have the ability to hit in the 2nd spot at their best, and one of them will be stuck in the 7th or 8th spot. If everyone’s healthy and producing normally, this is a very deep lineup. You could make a case that every hitter here would be hitting at least 6th in a typical lineup.

By Anders

January 14, 2008 5:10 PM | Link to this

DOB

Any truth to the rumor that Tom Glavine didn’t finish signing the last three balls he had at FanFest and he only got as far as the letter “T” on the last ball?

By Smitty

January 14, 2008 5:11 PM | Link to this

DOB: I would bat him 8th too. I don’t think he is a better hitter at this point than Diaz, KJ, or Escobar. He is coming off a back injury, and we all know that back injuries can reoccur very easily. Giving up an arm like Devine’s (a guy who could have helped us this year if Bobby would give him a shot) is a big risk for a stop gap player.

By Smitty

January 14, 2008 5:13 PM | Link to this

DOB: I would bat him 8th too. I don’t think he is a better hitter at this point than Diaz, KJ, or Escobar. He is coming off a back injury, and we all know that back injuries can reoccur very easily. Giving up an arm like Devine’s (a guy who could have helped us this year if Bobby would give him a shot) is a big risk for a stop gap player.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves in 2008)

January 14, 2008 5:13 PM | Link to this

Ned the Novice , the physical health of Mark Kotsay is the number one concern.

His strong defensive game and leadership qualities are also important.

Whether or not Kotsay can repeat the offensive performance of 2004 is the least of my worries.

By David O'Brien

January 14, 2008 5:15 PM | Link to this

Daybed, once more: I was responding directly to Cliff’s post about Kotsay AT HIS PEAK. Not what he’s done in his past two years, but at his peak.

Sorry I responded to his claim. How’s this: “Cliff, I agree with you, Kotsay at his peak wasn’t good enough to bat higher than eighth in this lineup. Good point.”

Oh, and Daybed I’m not ignoring what he did the past “three years,” as you say.

In 2006, he was hurt much of the year and hit .275 with seven homers. Last year he stunk for most of the 56 games he played.

But what third year are you talking about? In ‘05 he hit .280 with 35 doubles, 15 homers and 82 RBIs. Is that the third year you’re referring to?

I don’t know, but I’m guessing Braves would be thrilled for him to repeat those ‘05 numbers.

By Jared

January 14, 2008 5:17 PM | Link to this

Johnson’s OBP in the 2 hole was .350, only 13 points higher than Kotsay’s career mark and only 6 points higher than Kotsay’s career mark from the #2 hole. It all goes back to Kotsay being healthy. If he’s healthy, he’ll be fine.

That’s completely random and by chance. Johnson had all of 86 at-bats as a #2 hole hitter last season. It’s a small sample size and it means nothing.

Next thing you know, you’ll say KJ is a perfect 6-hole hitter with his 1.000 OBP in that spot last season.

By David O'Brien

January 14, 2008 5:29 PM | Link to this

It’s official: Kotsay to Braves for Devine, right-hander Jamie Richmond, with Oakland paying $5.35 mill to cover Kotsay’s salary.

Richmond, 21, was 16-7 with a 2.48 ERA in three minor league seasons for the Braves, including 7-6 witha 3.05 ERA in 25 games (24 starts) at Class A Rome last season.

By Beisbol

January 14, 2008 5:30 PM | Link to this

Assume Kotsay is only a .270, .330, .410 guy if he is hitting 8th and that’s about as good as he can be without protection behind him? Put him in front of Chipper and Tex. Can he turn into a .295, .360, .445 guy because of the fat pitches he will see hitting second in front of Chipper and Tex?

Doesn’t that describe what happened with Edgar here batting second in front of Chipper and Andruw? People forget that Edgar had OBPs of .327 and .335 in the two years before he became a Brave. And he had SLGs of .401 and .385 in the 2 years immediately before he became a Brave and starting hitting second ahead of Chipper and Andruw.

LIneups are not made by looking at the back of baseball cards and seeing what their OBP & SLG are. The whole point of the Jamesian sabermetric revolution was to never become a slave to a set way of thinking. That point seems entirely lost upon so many. Those that mocked the ones who were slaves to AVG & RBI, have themselves become slaves to OBP & SLG. That was never the intent of Bill James. James would probably say shame on you - use the stats as useful tools but also use some darn common sense.

Alot more goes into making lineups than just looking at OBP and SLG. While those two stats are very useful, you have to consider many other things in maximizing productivity out of your lineup. Can a weak link in your lineup be made more of strength by changing his lineup slot? An overly aggressive or moderately aggressive hitter can be placed into lineup slots where he has protection and pitchers have to be aggressive with him. Patient hitters can be put into lineup slots where pitchers are more likely to nibble with him.

Think about Smoltz and Glavine. In the postseason, they were usually facing teams that were good because they had an offense that was patient and disciplined. This worked to the advantage of an aggressive pitcher like Smoltz and to the disadvantage of a nibbler like Glavine. It’s part of the reason Smoltz was better in the postseason.

In the regular season, however, they were more likely to face inferior teams that were inferior because they were overly aggressive at the plate. This worked to the advantage of a nibbler like Glavine and to the disadvantage of an aggressor like Smoltz. That’s why Glavine was typically better than Smoltz in the regular season.

You beat aggression with aggression. You beat nibblers with patience.

Whoever is hitting second next season is gonna encounter alot of aggressive pitchers looking to avoid Chipper and Tex. This works to the advantage of Kotsay and Yunel. A 2 hitter however has to do many other things than just hack away. This is not really in Yunel’s nature as a hitter. Let him stay true to who he is as a hitter. Kotsay however is a good experienced professional hitter who can make contact and do other productive things to move runners over. With more aggressive pitchers, KJ, with his patience, is more likely to find himself with two strikes more than one would like.

Besides, KJ can be more useful than Escobar and Kotsay lower down in the order by extending rallies by getting on base, by protecting Frenchy and McCann, by driving in runs with his respectable power, and by working deep counts on pitchers in a stretch of the lineup where no one on the Braves really works pitchers at all from the 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, and 1 slots of the lineup.

If you want to be a stats geek and play computer simulated fantasy baseball, go to www.csfbl.com . Let the rest of us play hardball.

By Robert (Chipper Is The Best)

January 14, 2008 5:32 PM | Link to this

I think some of you are just way over complicating this Kotsay move. Kotsay isn’t here to be a star. He isn’t expected to reproduce his numbers of 2004. He is to babysit centerfield until Schafer is ready. The Braves would prefer that to be the beginning of 2009 but if they have to bring him up in June or July so be it. Kotsay’s role is to play good defense and any offensive contribution will be a plus. Nobody expects him to be Andruw Jones or Deion Sanders for that matter. Sure, somebody like Crisp or a healthy Baldelli would be a more desired option but the Braves got Kotsay and only have to pay him $2 mil and only gave up Joey Devine a guy who may or may not ever develop into a good pitcher.

It boils down to this. If Kotsay has a great year, then the Braves hit the jackpot. If he tanks, he needs to hold down the fort until the all-star break. If gets injured, Blanco and Anderson will be in Richmond to provide relief.

By Robert (Chipper Is The Best)

January 14, 2008 5:33 PM | Link to this

I think some of you are just way over complicating this Kotsay move. Kotsay isn’t here to be a star. He isn’t expected to reproduce his numbers of 2004. He is to babysit centerfield until Schafer is ready. The Braves would prefer that to be the beginning of 2009 but if they have to bring him up in June or July so be it. Kotsay’s role is to play good defense and any offensive contribution will be a plus. Nobody expects him to be Andruw Jones or Deion Sanders for that matter. Sure, somebody like Crisp or a healthy Baldelli would be a more desired option but the Braves got Kotsay and only have to pay him $2 mil and only gave up Joey Devine a guy who may or may not ever develop into a good pitcher.

It boils down to this. If Kotsay has a great year, then the Braves hit the jackpot. If he tanks, he needs to hold down the fort until the all-star break. If gets injured, Blanco and Anderson will be in Richmond to provide relief.

By TennesseePaul

January 14, 2008 5:43 PM | Link to this

Jared: True, KJ didn’t have that many at bats last season in the two hole. However, Kotsay has over 1960 at bats in the two hole, so I’d say that’s a good sample size.

But the main point of the whole post seems to be completely overlooked by you and several others. I’ll bold it this time and throw in a little italics… If Healthy. If Healthy Kotsay would be a fine addition. He’s only 32. The last three years he’s had back issues. Prior to that he had a career year. He’s had surgery now so there is no telling what the knife and rest have given him. So again, if healthy he should be a good addition in the 2 hole. And I hope he is healthy.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves in 2008)

January 14, 2008 5:45 PM | Link to this

So there was a second pitcher involved.

Jamie Richmond is a 31st round pick taken in the 2004 draft. He has three seasons in the minors , two in the rookie leagues and one in low A ball.

By Beisbol

January 14, 2008 5:47 PM | Link to this

That’s completely random and by chance. Johnson had all of 86 at-bats as a #2 hole hitter last season. It’s a small sample size and it means nothing.

KJ struck out 24 times in 86 at bats in the 2 hole. That is one strikeout per 3.58 a bats. That’s not random or chance. That is being overmatched because pitchers were being very aggressive with the overly patient KJ because they were scared of Chipper and Tex coming up next. KJ struck out 93 times in his other 435 at bats. That is one strikeout per every 4.68 at bats.

Just because someone has a certain OBP does not mean that OBP will stay the same if he is moved into different lineup slots where pitchers are more aggressive with him because of who is due up next. You have to examine how the strikeouts and OBP come about and place him in lineup slots where pitchers are less likely to turn that hitter’s strength into a weakness.

This is not Stratomatic. This is hardball.

By Chop Chop

January 14, 2008 5:49 PM | Link to this

Ahhhh…baseball.

Kotsay is merely a stop-gap measure. Any extra positives that Kotsay can provide will be greatly appreciated. Other than that, the Braves basically saved themselves from having to pay more money for a veteran free agent centerfielder. If Kotsay can stay healthy (we have a number of guys like that), he’ll provide enough in center to make it worth paying him the $2 million the A’s aren’t covering.

By AdirondackDave

January 14, 2008 5:50 PM | Link to this

Two promising pitchers for a one-year position rental… is Billy getting some post-Hudson compensation here or what? I’m guessing about July when Schafer is playing CF it will not look like Frank Wren’s finest moment. Hope I’m wrong.

By TennesseePaul

January 14, 2008 5:50 PM | Link to this

Well put Beisbol. DAP and I have attempted to make that point already and clause it by stating If Healthy as none of it matters if Kotsay is in pain and unable to swing the bat.
Appreciate the fairfield-echo link, though it doesn’t work. I think you meant to post this link

By Mike

January 14, 2008 5:56 PM | Link to this

DOB…can you explain your response to Cliff again??LOL

By Mike

January 14, 2008 5:56 PM | Link to this

DOB…can you explain your response to Cliff again??LOL

By David O'Brien

January 14, 2008 5:58 PM | Link to this

Anders, I don’t know about that Glavine rumor. But I did hear he turned down a $13 mill option to pitch for the Mets.

By wondering

January 14, 2008 6:02 PM | Link to this

“There’s a couple of deals that we’re working on right now and a couple of things that we’ll continue to talk about until we feel that we’ve exhausted many of the offseason discussions,” Wren said.

The Braves are confident left-handed reliever Mike Gonzalez will be able to return from Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery in June. But they would like to add some experience and insurance to a rather young bullpen mix. Peter Moylan and Manny Acosta, who are targeted as the top setup men, didn’t establish themselves as Major Leaguers until last year.

Any idea who the Braves could be targeting as a reliever for trade?

By TennesseePaul

January 14, 2008 6:02 PM | Link to this

AdirondackDave: There are a lot of potential non-moments lining up for Wren. This is just the most recent. As for Jamie Richmond though, I think Lew was the only one dying to see the kid pitch in Atlanta. Richmond was a ways away from coming to Atlanta to begin with. I’m not sure I’ll miss him. But I’m pretty sure there will be bloggers here in about a year calling it the worst deal in history if Richmond shows up to the majors and strikes out his first batter faced.

By Gil in Mechanicsville

January 14, 2008 6:03 PM | Link to this

I am really bummed out with Atlanta moving their AAA club out of Richmond. Just goes to show you that if a person is only as good as their word. The bunch running the Braves are pretty worthless…..

Richmond is a good baseball town and we have really had to put up with some crappy teams in the past ten years, the 2007 team was the exception.

I feel like the jilted suitor and I guess you folks will have to catch my act on the Nationals’ blog. Just cut my heart right out of me today….

By Luther

January 14, 2008 6:03 PM | Link to this

Great explanation Beisbol. Enjoyed and agree.

By David O'Brien

January 14, 2008 6:04 PM | Link to this

Adirondack, how can you look at Jamie Richmond’s numbers and call him “promising.” Dude is 21 and was fair-to-middling at Rome last year,his first full season in minors.

He was 7-6 with a 3.05 ERA in 25 games (24 starts) at Rome, with 98 strikouts and 25 walks in 138 innings. Not bad, certainly, but nothing exceptional.

After his outstanding 2006 season at Danville, that was a bit of a letdown last season.

(Then again, it was his first full season, so I’m probably being too harsh a critic. In hindsight, yes, it’s fair to say they gave up two promising pitchers. I’m adding this now, a half-hour after this original post, when I was hurrying to respond before the conference call)

By Gil in Mechanicsville

January 14, 2008 6:10 PM | Link to this

And don’t believe that crap you hear about the Diamond being run down. It is still in nice shape. Of course everyone wants something new, it’s our disposable society mentality…

There will be lots of excuses but just like the folks in Greenville, the Braves are making this move for money. You folks in Gwinnett, GA don’t be fooled. The AAA team being there is not going to lower your taxes.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves in 2008)

January 14, 2008 6:13 PM | Link to this

Two promising pitchers for a one-year position rental. AdirondackDave , that’s exactly what this trade is.

In the big scope of baseball trades , this is a relatively minor one.

I have no idea how good or bad it will turn out to be for either team.

Here is to hoping Joey Devine and Mark Kotsay make this a worthwhile trade.

By TennesseePaul

January 14, 2008 6:14 PM | Link to this

Gil: Went through the same thing when the Braves jumped ship on the Greenville team. And now the stupid Red Sox have moved into place. And to top it all off they wouldn’t let the team be named the “Joe’s”. Greenville got ‘em back though. They set up Shoeless Joe’s house and museum right out front of the Drive’s new park. A nice park. A park that would have looked even better had the Braves stayed in town. But the stupid Red Sox… What a bust. AL ball isn’t anywhere close in the South but here is the stupid Sox team right in the old Braves home. I saw so many Braves play in Greenville. Glavine, Chipper, AJ, and many many others.

By AdirondackDave

January 14, 2008 6:24 PM | Link to this

DOB — Thanks for the numbers… I would still call him promising. I guess my point should have been you can’t have too much pitching either on the MLB club on down on the farm. Still don’t like giving up 2 pitchers on this deal.

GIL — I feel your pain, bigtime. About 4-5 years ago here in Utica, NY we lost our long-time Blue Sox (A) when none other than Mr. America Cal Ripkin bought the club for a couple million and immediately moved it to Maryland. Business interests certainly come before community interests these day in the grand old game. In fact, as near as I can tell, community interests are little more than PR for most clubs.

By David O'Brien

January 14, 2008 6:33 PM | Link to this

Adirondack, I shouldn’t have jumped your ship like that: Richmond is promising, just not a big-time, top-rated prospect. But you’re right, he is still promising.

Had an unspectactular year at Rome, but the year before he was 7-1 with a 1.21 ERA in 14 games at Danville, with 52 Ks and 4 walks. So you can see where last year was a bit of a dropoff.

He was rated their No. 24 prospect a year ago, but I’m guessing he’d barely crack the top 30 this year, if he’s in it at all.

By JerseyGil

January 14, 2008 6:35 PM | Link to this

Gil….You Are a legit Braves Fan but you have to understant that it is business…new Stadium, and close to home it the order of the day. Sorry…look what happen in LA Dodger after all this year in Vero, they need to be in the west coast or close to home, expensive cost to operation is the key of this decision. Last year i said the same think to my wife…i said i be a braves fan until Chipper or smoltzy be a braves. I hope i continuos read you comment here in this blog.

By Gil in Mechanicsville

January 14, 2008 6:44 PM | Link to this

It is really tough after being a Braves fan for 40 odd years. I have seen so many of the Braves players move up through the system. I just did not see it coming. The park Gwinnett is proposing is about half the size of the current Richmond park.

Maybe we can get a AA club since that seems to be where all the hot prospect are coming from.

I can’t blame the Braves really, it’s all about the money anyway. It is going to be some long bus rides for those AAA guys.

By uga-brave

January 14, 2008 6:44 PM | Link to this

gil,

i agree with you. moving the triple a franchise from richmond makes no sense.

for years the braves had a foothold on a fan base in the carolinas and virginia. to move them to gwinett county makes no sense.

the braves attendance has been somewhat challeged the last few years. now they add another option in north atlanta. this really could hurt the braves attendance. anyone that has navigated that traffic mess on a friday or saturday night might opt for a closer cheaper option close to home.

this could really cost the braves at the gate and alienate a fan base the braves have had for a long time in richmond.

i feel for you gil.

By Chris from the Rock

January 14, 2008 6:48 PM | Link to this

DOB, Any chance the Braves still get Fuentes?

By Lew

January 14, 2008 6:55 PM | Link to this

Ten Paul-No, Richmond was way down my list of pitchers to get excited about. I don’t think we gave up too much by including him. I’m a little concerned about Devine, but it was beginning to look like Bobby Cox wasn’t going to give him his chance.

If Kotsay can put up career average numbers in 135-45 games, it will have been a worthwhile deal. If not, then the A’s got some retribution for the Hudson deal. We won’t get screwed THAT bad, though.

By Vinny

January 14, 2008 6:56 PM | Link to this

DOB

So NO press conference for Kotsay???? i thought they were going to announce it today

By jb

January 14, 2008 7:13 PM | Link to this

I was not that enthusiastic about the Kotsay+about $5.5 million for Joey Devine trade. Throwing in another young arm, just dampens it more. This is for hopefully a 1 year fix. Problem with that is Kotsay needs to stay healthy and his numbers have been declining since 2004. While he admits to being a “novice,” Ned said something very important. Look at Andruw’s numbers in 2004 and 2005, then look to 2006 and 2007. His career appears to be declining and he is younger than Kotsay. I remember last year when the Braves acquired Woodward, and bloggers would talk about the numbers he posted during his best season. I do not care what a player did during his best year. What did he do last year? What do we think he will do this year? Those numbers are more important that a career year 2-4 years ago. With the talent the Braves have available to play CF, giving up 2 young arms for a player with recent injuries and declining numbers, just does not make any sense.

By JerseyGil

January 14, 2008 7:13 PM | Link to this

Gil…why is the Richmond Braves web side still show it Ryan Klesko? The web is old like the Ball park…sorry time change…and must of the team they play are in the south…(Charlotte,Durham..etc)…but i will count on you to bring us some scouting report of some of ours prospect.

By Shaun

January 14, 2008 7:15 PM | Link to this

I think Kotsay will be a league average hitting centerfielder, if reasonably as healthy as expected. That is fine with me, because look what the Braves’ offense did with Andruw Jones in center last season. I think Kotsay should be the number eight hitter, but that doesn’t mean anything because he’s still above average at his position; and the Braves will have an above average hitter at every position.

Now, my Opening Day lineup:

2B Kelly Johnson

SS Yunel Escobar

3B Chipper Jones

1B Mark Teixeira

C Brian McCann

LF Matt Diaz

RF Jeff Francoeur

CF Mark Kotsay

By mr baseball

January 14, 2008 7:17 PM | Link to this

If it turns out Kotsay’s back is shot and his stats last year are about what the Braves can expect this season, it will be another in a long line of the Braves basically giving away prospects (mostly pitchers) for short term (or no term) gains. With the exception of Wainwright, most of the ex-Braves have flopped elsewhere, which you would think would make other GMs hesistant about trading for young Braves’ pitchers, especially Mr. Money Ball (Dan Meyer, anyone?).

Strange deal from Oakland’s perspective. Best I can tell, they do not have a CF on their roster, and all that’s left in the free agent market are Lofton & Patterson. Would hate to be an A’s fan, assuming there any left.

As far as the batting order, can’t see Kotsay hitting about 7th in the lineup (8th against lefties). KJ is better in every category (except K’s, a grossly overrarted stat) than even a healthy Kotsay, and the likelihood that he is going to match his pre-back injury stats in his mid 30s is highly unlikely.

Why is there little consideration of KJ hitting 1st and Escobar 2nd? Neither one is a stolen base threat, and their OB averages were about the same last year. KJ is more of a power threat, which isn’t a bad thing for a leadoff hitter. And having Escobar hit 2nd gives the lineup a better righty/lefty balance.

If either KJ or Kotsay hits 2nd, the Braves are inviting opposing nanagers to bring in lefty relievers to face KJ/Kotsay, Chipper, Tex and McCann in succession. Makes more sense to break up the lineup a little and force managers to choose whether to use their lefties against the Braves’ lefties, or vs. the switch-hitters.

I realize that’s too much thinking for Chance the Manager to engage in, so we should expect some nonsensical batting order that appears logical only to him.

And we haven’t even gotten into what kind of lineup the Braves are going to field against lefties. Will Diaz move up in the order, leaving 2 or 3 lefties in success at the bottom of the order? Will Cox platoon at 2B with Prado or Infante? Or in CF with Infante? And how do you put together a functioning 5-man bench when 1 of the 5 isn’t going to do much other than pinch hit (Thorman)?

Questions, questions, questions. Does Chance have the answers?

By Shaun

January 14, 2008 7:27 PM | Link to this

jb, well said. I’m not as pessimistic as you seem to be regarding Kotsay but I do think some are a little too optimistic because they seem to be saying that because of his back problems we should look at his peak numbers. While his peak happened right before his injury problems, we also have to take into account that his peak happened during typical peak ages and assume that even if he’s perfectly healthy, he’s not going to do what he did at ages 25-28.

By Dadgum

January 14, 2008 7:30 PM | Link to this

Living in Richmond I go to a few Braves games each year. It is easy to get to and leave from and is at best an adequate facility. It needs to be replaced and I am sure will be very soon.

The entire problem lies with the esteemed mayoral office. Our mayor is arrogant and has been playing hardball with Mike Plant and the Braves for over two years. This, given that attendance has been dwindling to among the lowest in AAA, is hardly appropriate behavior for an incumbent trying to keep the team.

I frankly don’t think that Richmond deserves the Braves. Moving to Gwinnett makes total sense to me as far as logistics and turnstile counts. Richmond has only drawn about 6,000 fans the last few years and is going south of that many many nights.

Richmond, contrary to popular belief, is not an Atlanta Braves town. Too far from Atlanta and with the Braves playing fewer games on cable it seems even farther.

Wisdom says that the Nationals will locate a team here or the Orioles. Perhaps a AA team. Regardless it is time for the Braves to pull out for greener outfields that drain and it is only hoped that Mayor Wilder follows soon after.

By NorthBeachScott

January 14, 2008 7:31 PM | Link to this

jb The difference between the AJ and Kotsay comparison is that Kotsay was injured during much of the last two seasons, thus a major cause of his lower numbers; AJ was not injured (significantly) and appears to be in rapid and irreversable decline. He is a very old 30.

I beg to differ with you. This trade makes a lot of sense, especially with the $5.3MM in salary that Oakland picks up. The Braves need to try and win in 2008 with the aging stars and position the budget to compete for Tex in 2009.

Probably better to say that Kotsay is a good fundamental player with some intangibles (maturity & leadership skills) and if healthy could contribute. His last two healthy seasons are probably directionally indicative of what we can expect, IF HEALTHY.

By AdirondackDave

January 14, 2008 7:37 PM | Link to this

DOB — No problem at all. Rather than focusing on these two particular pitchers, I’m more and more feeling that pitching is the most valuable asset a club can have and that I am uncomfortable with giving up two young pitchers for a one-year at best vet position player. Except (and this is a big except I grant you) that the Braves do need some short-term experience in CF, I would rather have been Billy Beane than Frank Wren in this deal.

By David O'Brien

January 14, 2008 7:38 PM | Link to this

Bottom line: If Kotsay’s hurt and plays only 50 games or so, trade will probably look real bad (if Devine and/or Richmond realize their potential).

If the surgery took care of his problem and he’s anywhere near his pre-herniated disk condition, say if he hits .280 with 35 doubles, 12 homers and a decent OBP, then the Braves got a bargain, since we know if he’s healthy enough to do that then he’s going to play great defense. He’s that good a defensive player, if he’s healthy.

The Braves weren’t counting on Devine to have an impact in their bullpen this year anyway, and if Kotsay gets hurt the Braves still have all the other guys who were options to play CF before they got him.

But again, if he’s hurt, the trade will look bad — provided, of course, Devine does anything, or Richmond amounts to anything a few years from now. If Kotsay stinks and so does Devine this year, we won’t be able to judge the trade until we see what Devine and Richmond become later.

But keep in mind, Oakland is paying $5.35 mill of the $7.35 mil, so that part of it’s a steal if Kotsay’s healthy….

Vinny, where you been? They announced it just after 5 p.m., had a conference call at 6 p.m. (no press conference, just a call, Kotsay was at airport when they did the call). Just filed my write-through story with quotes for the paper and website, should be up shortly.

By Shaun

January 14, 2008 7:42 PM | Link to this

His last two healthy seasons are probably directionally indicative of what we can expect, IF HEALTHY.

Not quite, North Beach Scott.

First, let me say I agree that the Kotsay move is a good one.

But I don’t think his last two healthy seasons are indicative of what we can expect if healthy because, again, they happened at typical peak ages for baseball players. So we must take that into account in our expectations of what Kotsay can do in 2008.

By David O'Brien

January 14, 2008 7:44 PM | Link to this

Sound points about the lineup, Mr. Baseball. Especially the lefty thing if Kotsay were to hit second in front of Chipper and Tex. You’re the first to point that out. Very good point.

By AdirondackDave

January 14, 2008 7:48 PM | Link to this

Press conference scratched for a conference call. Look like they want to de-emphasize this deal.

By TexasBrave

January 14, 2008 7:49 PM | Link to this

DOB - Agree with you that the line up you mentioned in your story will be the one Bobby uses if all remain healthy. However, I do not agree with it at all.

I wish Bobby would stick with one line up. Beisbol’s 5:30 post had some great points. Some players are better suited in different parts of the line up due to their approach to at the plate. It causes players to have to make adjustment which few can do.

We don’t see lefties often enough (although it seemed like we did last year) to warrent that kind of line up changes. What was our record versus lefties last year? Not very good I am willing to bet. So IMO it does not make much since to sacrifice continuity for matchups.

I would like to see the following line up:

Escobar, Kotsay, Chipper, Tex, Frenchy, KJ, McCann and Diaz - with Diaz playing everyday until he proves he can handle it, then platoon him with Jones or Anderson.

However, since I know that dream will not happen I would be willing to accept McCann fifth then Jeff, KJ and Diaz. Brian seemed to do better in the fifth spot, but it will take bigger or more hits to bring him around.

By jb

January 14, 2008 7:53 PM | Link to this

DOB,

There is another factor to consider with acquiring Kotsay. If he doesn’t hit the numbers many think he can, how long does Bobby Cox leave the veteren in the lineup. Too many Braves AB’s get wasted while Bobby gives the veteran player a chance to get out of their hitting funks. I hear Bobby Cox say too many times, that a player hitting .220 or less, it hitting the ball well and it will start finding gaps. I saw Wilson take too many AB’s last year. As a result, it took too long to realize that Thorman wasn’t the answer either. If he would have gotten Wilson’s AB’s, we would have know about his hitting sooner. I hope I am wrong about Kotsay, but I feel his numbers will not be what they were and Bobby Cox will leave in too long before giving one of the youngsters a chance.

By Daybed Wagmoe

January 14, 2008 7:54 PM | Link to this

DOB - yeah, i posted a bit hastily there. i didn’t put two and two together and realize that you were referring to the specific “Kotsay at his peak” part of the comment until minutes after i posted it. hey, my bad. should’ve paid more attention there.

By BossLady

January 14, 2008 7:59 PM | Link to this

Picture this, a large deal is on the table-the old school team is looking it over. A decision has to be made right away and the rookies are getting excited about the money and what they can buy. If you sign off on it then the company is gone for good or you can pass on it and the prospect of a better deal is an option if you pass on the big money

So, the CEO, GM and Manager ask that the decision is made.

The point is you can bargain away your whole team with prospects or you can overpay. A franchise has to operate as business as usual and the rookies need to learn how to plan for the future.

Let the Braves build the future and we will enjoy for a long time or we can go out and spend everything based on these comments and when it is time to resign go broke.

PICK YOUR POISON………

By Coach (Lets Go Braves in 2008)

January 14, 2008 8:01 PM | Link to this

JB and mr. baseball , why so are you both so pessimistic about this trade.

Joey Devine was supposed to be the Braves closer three years ago. Instead , he has produced just one win , no saves and 19.2 innings since 2005. Not to mention his playoff meltdown in 2005.

Jamie Richmond is a 31st round pick , need I say more ?

Mark Kotsay has lost the better part of the last two seasons due to a chronic back condition that has been corrected by surgery. He deserves a chance to prove he is still a good solid veteran CF who can play defense.

This trade certainly doesn’t excite me , but to call it anything more than a minor trade with solid potential for both teams is overstating the obvious.

By NorthBeachScott

January 14, 2008 8:05 PM | Link to this

Fair enough, Shaun. By directionally, I meant that he was less likely to hit .220 like AJ and more likely to hit and get on base comparable to his average seasons up to his last healthy two. However, adjusting downward for being past his peak age makes sense. I am with you.

Suffice to say the Braves are better off today with Kotsay as the leading CF alternative than they were, yesterday. Especially at the relatively low risk in salary and players unlikely to have an impact to the Braves in 2008. Look forward to seeing Kotsay live at Dark Star in about 7 weeks. Do you go to ST?

By David O'Brien

January 14, 2008 8:08 PM | Link to this

mr baseball: However, it should be noted that Kotsay has almost identical career average/OBP/slugging vs. lefties and righties, and Teixeira kills lefties. Tex has hit them a little better than righties throughout his career — a .311 average, .387 OBP and .555 slugging pecentage against lefties, and .276/.364/.532 vs. righties.

By David O'Brien

January 14, 2008 8:09 PM | Link to this

jb, if Kotsay’s healthy and can play, he’s staying in there. this isn’t developmental time, at this level.

By David O'Brien

January 14, 2008 8:13 PM | Link to this

adirondack, the Braves waited until late afternoon for Selig’s office to approve the money part of the trade. Kotsay’s physical was over early and he waited around, but had a flight (he was sitting at his gate at hartsfield, the announcement blaring in the background, when we talked to him at 6 a.m. on the conference call.

Besides, trades of this magntitude (not a major deal) usually aren’t accompanied by press conferences at the ballpark anyway. If Kotsay hadn’t needed to come here for a physical, Braves certainly wouldn’t have had him fly across country for a press conference. Just not that big a trade, to warrant that.

By McFann

January 14, 2008 8:18 PM | Link to this

I like Shaun’s Opening Day lineup. Yep, looks good. With Diaz batting after McCann and before Francoeur, Matty cann move McCann over to third or where-have-you so Francoeur cann knock him in. ; )

But of course, Bobby’s lineup will prob’ly be something like:

Escobar

Kotsey

Chipper

Tex

Francoeur

McCann

Johnson

Diaz

Not that I object to Kotsey batting second. That’s cool with me. Put him second and KJ…mmm…6th. Francoeur cann be 7th for all I care.

By Dadgum

January 14, 2008 8:22 PM | Link to this

Gil…the whole city of Richmond has seen this coming. In fact Mike Plant has repeatedly warned Richmond and Wilder in particular concerning new stadium needs and the fact that Wilder has implemented stonewalling tactics to delay a decision. That tried Atlanta’s patience.

I hope Wilder gets nailed by bad press that he deserves. If ever there was a pompous arse in politics he would be the frontrunner.

Raised in Atlanta, I grew up with the old Crackers then with of course the Braves. The Braves will always be my team but Richmond’s team in the future will be just as entertaining with another franchise. It’s strictly entertainment.

I applaud Atlanta for telling Richmond to stick it.

By jb

January 14, 2008 8:28 PM | Link to this

Coach,

I am pessimistic because the Braves acquired a player that has a chance to prove he can still be a solid veteran CF. This is a back injury we are talking about. I would be pleasantly surprised if he could play in over 130 games for the Braves. Kotsay will also be taking a spot on the roster that could be used by one of the young CF’s the Braves already have. Unless the Braves carry 5 outfielders, which by all accounts they will not. How can the young CF learn from Kotsay if there is no room for the kid on the roster? Devine and Richmond may have been better suited to be packaged in a trade for a player the Braves may need before this year’s trade deadline. As for defense in CF, the Braves have that already in Blanco and Anderson. I would not have liked a trade for oft injured Jim Edmonds + a team paying but about $ 2 mil. of his salary for Devine and Richmond either. If a player is going to play less than 145 games, he better have Chipper like numbers. Kotsay and Edmonds will not have numbers like Chipper.

By Jared

January 14, 2008 8:32 PM | Link to this

The Braves’ opening day game is against the Nationals, and their #1 starter is almost certainly going to be right hander Shawn Hill.

So opening day lineup if I was doing it would be:

Johnson

Escobar

C. Jones

Teixeira

McCann

Francoeur

Kotsay

B. Jones

Smoltz

By Earl

January 14, 2008 8:42 PM | Link to this

Braves gave up way too much in this trade. I wouldn’t have given up Devine straight up for Kotsay. Devine was really starting to come into his own last year and I think he would have turned out to be our best reliever next year after Soriano and Moylan. Now our bullpen is even weaker than it was. I would have taken my chances with Anderson hitting 8th, hoping he could get some intentional walks in front of the pitchers so he could steal some bases. We need another reliever now, I’m not sold on Acosta or Yates for next year.

By jb

January 14, 2008 8:49 PM | Link to this

Well said Earl!

By Chopdawg

January 14, 2008 8:51 PM | Link to this

Watched Richmond at Rome last season, and he really got things going the last couple of months.

Also, seeing Kotsay’s numbers from before his injury problems: he seems to be the same type hitter the Braves expect Shafer to be. Top of the order, high OBP, smart baserunner, decent gap power.

By Stinky

January 14, 2008 8:58 PM | Link to this

And personally, I don’t think that Drew-for-Wainwright deal was bad, either…

JS must have pictures of Dob in a compromising position.

By JimD

January 14, 2008 8:59 PM | Link to this

OK, I admit … I didn’t read every post, but I think I am missing something that maybe y’all can explain.

DOB, you mentioned that in order to prevent teams from bringing in a lefty to fact Kotsay and leave him in to turn CJ and Tex around to the right side, Cox could bat KJ 2nd. Also, I think Josh H referenced KJ as a righty.

Well, KJ is a lefty. So I am not sure why having KJ in the 2nd hole instead of Kotsay would prevent an opposing manager from bringing a lefty in out of the pen. In fact, I think Kotsay hits lefties better than KJ anyway.

By JimD

January 14, 2008 8:59 PM | Link to this

OK, I admit … I didn’t read every post, but I think I am missing something that maybe y’all can explain.

DOB, you mentioned that in order to prevent teams from bringing in a lefty to fact Kotsay and leave him in to turn CJ and Tex around to the right side, Cox could bat KJ 2nd. Also, I think Josh H referenced KJ as a righty.

Well, KJ is a lefty. So I am not sure why having KJ in the 2nd hole instead of Kotsay would prevent an opposing manager from bringing a lefty in out of the pen. In fact, I think Kotsay hits lefties better than KJ anyway.

By Stinky

January 14, 2008 9:03 PM | Link to this

Say that again, JimD.

By JimD

January 14, 2008 9:10 PM | Link to this

I don’t think I can, Stinky.

By stew

January 14, 2008 9:14 PM | Link to this

Can Kotsay or any of the other pretenders to the throne be as productive as Andruw was in his worst season. I still don’t get it. Boras is looking for 20 mill+ for seven years. Braves say about 15 mill for five. Braves pull out. The market comes down. He could have been had for 14 mill for 4 years. He’s the greatest player in their history. He carried them on his back and there is no outcry. It’s a shame!

By Serge

January 14, 2008 9:16 PM | Link to this

So this is what the Mighty Braves hace come down to. Overpaying to get money releif from the rich oakland athletics.

Mark Kotsay is 32 years old but his body is more like 40. Hes had numerous injuries including multiple herniated disks. His trade to Oakland was delayed because of concerns about his health. The water in Georgia is nice but it dont cure injuries.

On the other hand we gave up two promising pitchers. One who could have been productive with the Braves now. Were going to give Tyler Yates a roster spot and im sorry. Joey Devine right now is better than Tyler Yates and thats not considering the consdierable upside he has.

This is a bad bad deal period. It also makes the Josh Anderson deal seem stupid as well. Im not too impressed with the Frank Wren Era. He doesnt have Peter Angelos to blame this time btw.

By JimD

January 14, 2008 9:25 PM | Link to this

Uhm, Stew, I am not sure we were watching the same Braves.

Yes, AJ was a great CF. But to say that he carried the Braves on his back and that he was the greatest player in their history, I am sorry, but the stats don’t quite place him there.

This is baseball. Things change. AJ is aging, and his skills declining. It is time to transition to someone younger. The Braves are betting that in 4 yrs (probably less) that Jordan’s Schafer’s stats will be better than AJs.

And since AJ probably doesn’t want to take Lidocaine and B12 shots in his butt, he probably will continue to decline.

AJ was a great player, had some great years for the Braves, but time marches on. If the Braves followed your logic Hank Aaron would be playing 1B instead of Tex.

By McFann

January 14, 2008 9:31 PM | Link to this

We’re going to give Tyler Yates a roster spot and i’m sorry. Joey Divine right now is better than Tyler Yates…

Amen!

By uga-brave

January 14, 2008 9:43 PM | Link to this

while i am no big fan of what we gave up, the trade is what it is.

kotsay either stays healthy and has a better then average year or his back is chronic and he is out of here by july.

if healthy kotsay will be a much better option then either anderson or blanco. from a defensive standpoint the braves may have the top two arms in the national league in kotsay and francoeur.

as for everyone bemoaning the braves tight budget constraints, you better get used to it. the braves could go a long way to endearing the fan base if they attempted to make a offer to tex before the season starts.

i know that wont happen because of boras and his penchant for taking his clients to free agency, but it would be nice to see what kind of money the braves would be willing to commit.

By McFann

January 14, 2008 9:51 PM | Link to this

No, Stew, the real shame is that you feel that way.

How cann you type that Andruw is the greatest player in the history of the Braves? That is absurd!! I don’t know who the greatest is, but at least give that honor to Hank Aaron or somebody like that. The greatest player in Braves history is retired, IMO. None of the guys we have at the present (or declined to have, as the case may be) should be called “the greatest”. But IDK, I mean, Chipper’s prob’ly pretty high on the list.

Good night to y’all. It’s past my bed time. : )

By JJMB

January 14, 2008 9:54 PM | Link to this

The question is “WHY would Oakland happily agree to pay $5,350,000 of his salary?”

By N8erella

January 14, 2008 9:58 PM | Link to this

stew

“I still don’t get it. Boras is looking for 20 mill+ for seven years. Braves say about 15 mill for five. Braves pull out. The market comes down. He could have been had for 14 mill for 4 years. He’s the greatest player in their history.”

Well I certainly can’t disagree with the first line of the above quote……you DON’T get it, do you?

In less than four years, Andruw will be the one with a body of a 40 year old, and at 14 or 15 million a year, that’s a little to rich for me.

Andruw? The greatest player in the Braves history? Are you frickin kidding me? ONE YEAR, and ONE YEAR ONLY was he the best player on said year’s 25 man roster. Period.

I’ll give you 4 names since ONLY 1991.

Glavine, Smoltz, Maddux and Chipper.

In my opinion, Andruw is 5th on the best Braves since moving to Atlanta. Just barely above Dale Murphy.

If you’re including the ENTIRE HISTORY of the franchise, he’s even lower than that. Not sure ANYBODY in the HISTORY OF BASEBALL is a better player than Hank. Certainly not Andruw.

By Wayne in Utah

January 14, 2008 10:00 PM | Link to this

I had Jamie Richmond in our second 10 pitching prospects, so I am relieved it was not someone like Medlin or Locke.

I had high hopes for Devine, but hey, it’s a crap shoot if a talented player makes it to be a real contributor in the big show anyway.

If Kotsay is healthy, I don’t think it matters much how the lineup shakes out. We know Bobby’s tendacies, so we can plug in 2-3 options (already beat thoroughly into the ground) and either will work.

Are we still looking at relievers like Fuentes? Which guys are we trying to move? The shame is that Thorman is out of options. If he sticks, I would be too surprised to see him get some AB’s in left, unless Brandon Jones lights it up.

With TG and Kotsay, our wives section of the stands will definitely be much improved, but out in Utah, TBS killed my viewing anyway. Guess I will have to pony up to get the Braves on the tube in ‘08.

Gil, sorry to hear about the Richmond thing. Is that a done deal? I saw Chipper and Mike Kelly back when they played in Greenville. Chipper avoided my kids at the fence looking for autographs, but my son has a glove with Mike Kelly’s signature on it.

uga I agree that an offer should be put on the table for Tex this winter. As you state, I would be totally shocked if one of Bore-us’ clients signed early though.

I would love to see about 4-5 of his clients fire his sorry arse this winter.

By Wayne in Utah

January 14, 2008 10:07 PM | Link to this

N8 long time, no tease. Best Braves since coming to Atlanta, itsn’t it obvious…. Clete Boyer…. and mostly because I emulated him as a young budding thirdbaseman. Had a noodle for an arm though, and had to default to firstbase. Clete could sure pick ‘em.

AJ was for sure a close second though. On those hot muggy nights in ATL, who was better at getting a real breeze going with those mammoth whiffs???

By TNRON

January 14, 2008 10:07 PM | Link to this

Joey devine is better than Yates?I guess that is why he (Devine) has been in the minors all these years while Yates has been in the majors.The only thing wrong with Yates is mismanagement by Cox that nearly burned him out midseason.Fact is Moylan and Devine are too similar to be in the same bullpen and statistcally Devine is not effective against lefties,as most sidearmers arent.Moylan was the exception last year.But to say Devine is better than Yates at this point is equivalent to saying Salty is better than McCann (which a lot of bloggers on here thought last year McFann).McCann is established,Salty has potential.People blame Yates when the guilty one is Bobby Cox in his misuse.Yates is what he is,a sevicable reliever.Devine is a good kid with potential,and time alone will tell if he ever reaches it.

By Wayne in Utah

January 14, 2008 10:08 PM | Link to this

Woody Woodward was a close third, with that incredible baseball name!

By N8erella

January 14, 2008 10:15 PM | Link to this

DOB

It looks like Dayton Moore is taking a page out of his Braves past.

I still listen to 610 AM (out of Kansas City), online on a daily basis. I’ve gotta get my fix of Chiefs news (man alive, that City hates Herm Edwards, like Robert hates Bobby), and today a couple of the local announcers were giving away tickets to the first ever Royals “Fan Fest”.

Sounds like the city is excited about where Dayton is taking that team. Amazing how spoiled fans become. Many on the Braves board are complaining about us “just missing” the playoffs (myself included during the past two seasons), yet here are the Royals fans PUMPED up about any signs of life in that organization.

BTW, is there ANY Atlanta area radio stations that are considered sports talk stations that have discussions (and live press conferences), about the Braves? Even if it’s only one “show” for a couple of ours, I’d be interested in streaming that, instead of my Chiefs news, while at work.

A “pre-thanks” to anybody that can give me some links to any Atlanta radio stations. I’m sure I could find some by searching online, but I’d like some input from some local Atlantans (is that a word) on what stations or hosts they enjoy the most. Huh? I’m a poet and didn’t know it. :-)

By JimD

January 14, 2008 10:20 PM | Link to this

Shouldn’t we put Claudell Washington on the list of greatest Braves ever? I mean, after all, he was a real vacuum cleaner between the lines.

Nod, nod, wink, wink.

But seriously folks … TNRON, great comparison on Devine/Yates.

By David O'Brien

January 14, 2008 10:20 PM | Link to this

JimD, I did NOT say K.J. was a right. Go back and read my post up top. What I was trying to say was that it should’t really matter because of how well Kotsay and Tex have hit lefties throughout their careers (Kotsay didn’t last year, but didn’t hit anybody last season while playing after back surgery).

By Gsu-Lee

January 14, 2008 10:26 PM | Link to this

DOB Heard you were coming to guest speak on the 24th at GSU, I will be in attendance

By N8 in Chains

January 14, 2008 10:27 PM | Link to this

McFann responded to the following quote with an “Amen!”

“We’re going to give Tyler Yates a roster spot and i’m sorry. Joey Divine right now is better than Tyler Yates…”

While that may be true, do you think that the A’s were gonna give us Kotsay (and pay about 5 million of his salary) for Tyer Yates?

The question at hand, is this:

Are the Braves better off in 2008 with Kotsay in CF, Schafer developing at AAA, and Yates in the bullpen, then they would have been with Schafer in CF, Devine in the bullpen and Yates having his control problems at Richmond?

It’s a question we’ll never know the answer to, even after this year, because circumstances will have changed the final results. But apparently Wren and the Braves went with the former plan, rather than the latter.

Can’t say I disagree, for the short-term AND longterm. Maybe Schafer spending one more year in the minors is the difference between him being a very good player, and a GREAT player, when he arrives for good?

BTW: 80’s hairband moniker month is officiall over. I’ve moved on to 90’s grunge bands. :-)

By uga-brave

January 14, 2008 10:30 PM | Link to this

wayne,

how is it going? seems like you guys have been getting pelted with snow.

tnron, i a agree when rested yates was effective last year.

N8, 790 and 680 am are both sports talk stations in atl.

By JimD

January 14, 2008 10:32 PM | Link to this

Gotcha DOB. And I agree.

By N8 in Chains

January 14, 2008 10:32 PM | Link to this

Wayne

Sorry. I forgot to “respond” to you in my last post.

I read the other day, that you mentioned a ton of snow your way.

We’ve pretty much had none. I’ve shoveled the driveway once so far, and haven’t even thought about dusting off the snow-blower (which I’ve used 4 or 5 times in the last 3 years). I guess all I had to do to get it to stop snowing was buy one, huh? Oh well. Got it on clearance in the spring a few years back.

If the wind is blowing strong enough from the north, I can blow snow from my driveway to the guy’s yard that lives two houses away from me.

Not that I would ever do such a thing. :-)

By David O'Brien

January 14, 2008 10:36 PM | Link to this

TNRON, good post about Yates, and I agree. Including the part about him being overworked by Cox during stretches last season when it was clear that Yates needed rest. And fine analogy, saying that claiming Devine is better than Yates is like saying Salty is better than McCann.

Some don’t like to acknowledge that the jump to the majors is a very big one, and that minor league success doesn’t necessarily translate to major league results. Very often, it does not.

By N8 in Chains

January 14, 2008 10:36 PM | Link to this

TNRON

Every time I read one of your posts, I envision a guy sitting at his computer with one of those glow in the dark/neon blue suits on.

Then I realized that your moniker was TNRON not TRON.

Sorry my bad.

By uga-brave

January 14, 2008 10:37 PM | Link to this

DOB,

the jayhawks continue to roll. looks like unc, kansas, memphis and ucla are just a little better the everyone else this year.

i know the reds traded josh hamilton to the rangers, but did the braves ever get involved in any discussions involving him?

By David O'Brien

January 14, 2008 10:37 PM | Link to this

GSU-lee, that is the plan. Let’s make it painless, shall we?

By N8ing Pumpkins

January 14, 2008 10:38 PM | Link to this

Thanks uga-brave. I’ll check them out.

By Bryan( Go KU )

January 14, 2008 10:45 PM | Link to this

Hey David, I saw a picture of Blaine Boyer at Fan fest. How is he figuring into the plans this year, or is he?

By Random

January 14, 2008 10:45 PM | Link to this

DOB: Lopez showed he was serious about his comeback during private workouts since October with Braves bench coach Chino Cadahia.

We’ve heard this before, but seeing it again got me to wondering — would Javy have reimbursed Cadahia for these workouts himself, or would Cadahia have done it “for the team” as a normal part of his job.

Did KJ and before him MGiles personally reimburse Hubbard for the work he did with them?

None of my business, of course — just wondering.

Also, does it always go without saying that switch hitters fare better against RHPs than against LHPs? Would that be because they see more of the former?

By uga-brave

January 14, 2008 10:45 PM | Link to this

dob,

does this mean we have to call you DR. or professor now?

By TNRON

January 14, 2008 10:46 PM | Link to this

I actually do have one of those suits,not wearing it now though.

By joebrave

January 14, 2008 10:57 PM | Link to this

Damn!! so many General Managers here,I’m glad I got traded to Atlanta!!!

Joey Devine???? who in the,or should I say where in the he11,have you been,what smoke have you been hitting,or did you even watch the games,last year???????

It is readily apparent that the Braves have a band wago with no sides,very easy to jump off,and on!!!

Frank Wren is doing a fine job,and If Kotsay is relly Healthy,then all those dreams of yesteryore,about Lenny Dykstra,will be relieved,yes Kotsay can be that kind of player,and as a mentor,to Smoe of the Younger Cf,his tutelage will be Priceless!!!!

someone brought up Mike Gonzalez: Since you have X-ray vision,and can look deeper,than MRI’s maybe you should apply for the Med position down at the Ted:Smart@ss!!!!!

I agree that Wren,should have possibly tried a little harder to acquire,say Blanton,or Haren,However The man Refused to give up the farm!!!

Kudos Frank Wren!!!!

By Roman Gal

January 14, 2008 10:58 PM | Link to this

I don’t get the reasoning behind moving the R-Braves to Gwinnett. Why wouldn’t they move them to south Georgia. I mean, people can see the Rome Braves or the Atlanta Braves. Doesn’t it make more sense to move them somewhere like Macon or Savannah?

By Alan

January 14, 2008 10:58 PM | Link to this

Frank Wren said a long time ago - as soon as he was named GM - that one of his goals was to get a veteran CF. I’d forgotten that he was the assistant GM at Florida when Kotsay was drafted and signed - it makes sense now when he says Kotsay is the guy he targeted from the beginning. No way were the Braves going to put a rookie in CF this year. This is a risk - Kotsay is 32 and coming off 2 down years, wrecked by injury - but it’s a calculated risk. The Braves really believe they can win the NL East this season, and so do I. Now, the batting order (very close to DOB’s): Escobar, Kotsay, Chipper, Tex, McCann & Frenchy (flip-flop depending on the pitcher), KJ, Diaz/Jones. Diaz probably should get a chance to play every day, but I believe he’ll platoon with B. Jones right from the get-go in Spring Training. If BJ doesn’t do the job in ST, look for the Braves to go after a left-handed vet (like Jacque Jones) to share time with Diaz. KJ likely will hit 8th when a lefty pitches and he may even sit (for Prado) against a really tough lefty like Hamels. This is a good lineup - I think it’ll score more runs than last year’s.

By adivenjack

January 14, 2008 11:00 PM | Link to this

DOB-

I think i heard Mark say that the MRI/X-Ray/etc results were passed on to “Frank and John.” Is the John he’s referring to the one and only Mr. Schuerholz?

I wonder how much he’s still involved or is this completely Frank’s show. I hope that Frank uses JS. If for nothing else, just as a guy to throw ideas around with.

Do you still speak to JS?

By joebrave

January 14, 2008 11:04 PM | Link to this

Damn!! so many General Managers here,I’m glad I got traded to Atlanta!!!

Joey Devine???? who in the,or should I say where in the he11,have you been,what smoke have you been hitting,or did you even watch the games,last year???????

It is readily apparent that the Braves have a band wago with no sides,very easy to jump off,and on!!!

Frank Wren is doing a fine job,and If Kotsay is relly Healthy,then all those dreams of yesteryore,about Lenny Dykstra,will be relieved,yes Kotsay can be that kind of player,and as a mentor,to Smoe of the Younger Cf,his tutelage will be Priceless!!!!

someone brought up Mike Gonzalez: Since you have X-ray vision,and can look deeper,than MRI’s maybe you should apply for the Med position down at the Ted:Smart@ss!!!!!

I agree that Wren,should have possibly tried a little harder to acquire,say Blanton,or Haren,However The man Refused to give up the farm!!!

Kudos Frank Wren!!!!

By JMF

January 14, 2008 11:06 PM | Link to this

The trade I wish we would have made with the A’s would have been for Dan Haren. I would have taken our chances in Center. It looks like we could have matched what the Diamondbacks offered. I hope that does not come back to haunt us!

By N8ing Pumpkins

January 14, 2008 11:10 PM | Link to this

Random

“Also, does it always go without saying that switch hitters fare better against RHPs than against LHPs? Would that be because they see more of the former?”

I wasn’t a switch hitter, nor was I very good in general. Where I grew up there was very few LHP to compete against. So I can attest, that even as a RH Batter, it was more “awkward” facing LH Pitchers than going up against right handed pitchers, just from repetition, (or lack there of against lefties).

I imagine, since there are certain switch hitters that have trouble with good lefties.

With my limited baseball career behind me, that is my opinion.

By joebrave

January 14, 2008 11:11 PM | Link to this

Move the AAA team to south Georgia??? HUH?? have you been to south Georgia lately?? the economy down there SUCKS!!!

It is called Fiscal Sanity!! that’s why!!!

By jb

January 14, 2008 11:13 PM | Link to this

joe brave,

With Frency, Diaz, Jones, and Kotsay, the outfield slots are filled. There will be no young CF on the roster to be mentored by Kotsay. That is one main reason I have a problem with this trade. Shafer may not be ready this year, but I think Blanco may be. Also, why the hell did Wren trade for Josh Anderson. He looked pretty good when called up last year. I know he had a relatively small sample of AB’s, but so did McCann and Frenchy. Kelly Johnson really had a fairly small sample of major league AB’s, and the Braves had no problem handing the starting 2B job to him. They let Giles go, which proved to be right to let the young, cheaper kid play. Getting Kotsay, who I feel is on the decline, and not letting the younger, cheaper kids play is a step backwards.

By David O'Brien

January 14, 2008 11:14 PM | Link to this

uga-brave, my understanding was that the Braves either asked about him and immediately learned the Reds were seeking far more in a trade than the Braves were willing to give up for Hamilton, or they didn’t even get as far as asking after hearing what Reds were asking other clubs.

By rich brave

January 14, 2008 11:17 PM | Link to this

In regard to O’B - wan’s post of 10:36 p.m. regarding the effect on pitching between minor and major leagues. For the edification of those assembled here, “the Diamond” is a very forgiving playing venue for the pitcher. Fortunately for Braves player development, it is one which will only be applicable for one more season. As Gwinnett is yet to be constructed, I would suggest that the new field more accurately reflect the characteristics of “the Ted”. This should aid in evaluation and development of player personnel significantly.

Richmond’s loss in Gwinnett’s gain. There are however, over 4 million people in central and eastern Virginia, and ultimately I suspect some other professional baseball franchise will reside here. No team however can replace the Braves in my estimation. Prior to the arrival of the Braves in 1966, Richmond held the franchise for the New York Yankees. I watched Mel Stottlemyer(sic), Al Downing (of home run and Henry Aaron fame), Tom Tresh and other luminaries of their system. I never considered becoming a Yankees fan. As I did through the 50’s and 60’s, I will now follow the Braves through the print media in USA sports-bites and other similar vulger outlets. I’ll follow them on TV if I can afford it, and there is a local outlet(as of now I know of none). I’ll continue to post here with what I see in ‘08.

I congratulate Gwinnett on their gain and would ask that locale to never take the Braves for granted, as they are worthy of earnest support as an asset to the community and baseball generally.

By JB

January 14, 2008 11:19 PM | Link to this

DOB, any word about the reliever that Frank Wren is looking for? Any names that seem plausible?

By Jared

January 14, 2008 11:19 PM | Link to this

KJ likely will hit 8th when a lefty pitches and he may even sit (for Prado) against a really tough lefty like Hamels.

Exactly why the Braves should trade Prado before Bobby’s platoon obsession strikes again.

By David O'Brien

January 14, 2008 11:19 PM | Link to this

Bryan, Boyer’s got a legit shot at making the ‘pen out of camp. Since he’s out of options, Braves might need to trade him this spring if they don’t think he’s gonna make their ‘pen, because they’d probably lose him on waivers if he’s healthy.

By YankeeDawg

January 14, 2008 11:20 PM | Link to this

DOB, Mr. Baseball’s point is a little better than your using #’s from 4 years ago to justify Kotsay hitting 2nd, trend lines I guess not being relevant. KJohnson is no longer young, he can hit 2nd behind Yunel. What 3 years of pro-ball in him, incredible first year at new position, he’s what 24? Just curious, were you drinking when you bashed on poor cliffy like that?

By TennesseePaul

January 14, 2008 11:20 PM | Link to this

uga-brave: I don’t know how they’ll handle it, but I do know that out here in LA the two teams alternate their schedule for the most part. So it could be you get 100% baseball instead of just 81 home 81 away.

jb: Problem with that is Kotsay needs to stay healthy and his numbers have been declining since 2004 You hit the nail on the head when you said he needs to stay healthy. But then you follow it up with “declining since 2004”. Has Chipper been declining since he had a string of injury seasons? Kotsay had back problems in 2005, 2006 and 2007. He’s had his surgery and plenty of rest. Hopefully he’ll be healthy and I think, if he is, you’ll see a guy put up career average numbers at least.
All the sudden I feel like KC defending Hampton and Hudson prior to 2007. It’s not a bad feeling, but I’ve seen how it can turn out…

mr baseball: Best I can tell, they do not have a CF on their roster
I was thinking the same thing but apparently a few of the guys they got from the D-Backs project to be CF. Perhaps that’s their angle…
Why is there little consideration of KJ hitting 1st and Escobar 2nd? Neither one is a stolen base threat
Escobar is the far supior base runner which makes him a better pick, in my opinion, for the leadoff role. That and his better OBP and AVG in the leadoff spot.
Braves are inviting opposing nanagers to bring in lefty relievers to face KJ/Kotsay, Chipper, Tex
In this light I’d say bring it on. Teixeira has a history of destroying Lefties.

And lastly, I knew the “Yates was over worked” chorus would begin. Devine had better numbers last season and has improved each season since his horrid debut year. Yates, on the other hand, will continue to be over worked and continue to have “stuff” that puts up uninspiring numbers. On top of that he’ll be a free agent sooner than Devine. I know Bean wouldn’t take Yates, but I gotta think that getting him out of th pen and replacing him with a guy Cox is wont to use would probably benefit the bullpen by relieving it of the “over use” excuse.

By Braint

January 14, 2008 11:25 PM | Link to this

DOB, it’s never a good argument to pull Kotsay’s numbers from 4 years ago and say that he should bat higher than 8th. If you pulled Andruw’s numbers from 4 years ago you’d wonder why he wasn’t resigned…Kotsay has done nothing in the last couple of years. Nothing. And the AJC is using photos of him making a catch when he was with the Marlins?

By David O'Brien

January 14, 2008 11:25 PM | Link to this

Roman Gal: While Joe Brave put it a little more crudely than I might have, his point is correct.

If the Braves were moving the Triple-A team from Richmond, they were going to move the team to a town that bent over backwards to get it, to a place that’ll build them a nice, new ballpark, in an area where there’s plenty of folks with money to spend on tickets and sponsors to buy ads on the outfield walls and pay for suites.

And I’m guessing the Braves will say that it’s also very convenient having the team in Gwinnett, both in terms of being able to get a player to Atlanta in a hurry or fly him out of Atlanta to join the team on the road if they need to.

By TennesseePaul

January 14, 2008 11:27 PM | Link to this

Doesn’t it make more sense to move them somewhere like Macon or Savannah?

Or back to Greenville and kick those filthy RedSox out of the South…

By David O'Brien

January 14, 2008 11:31 PM | Link to this

YankeeDawg, there are no Yankee Dawgs.

And try reading entire posts. I didn’t use stats from four years ago to justify Kotsay batting fourth, so the rest of your post is fairly irrelebant. But I’ll humor you.

I used his peak year 2004 simply to dispute Cllff’s assertion that Kotsay “at his peak” would not be good enough to bat higher than eighth on this team. Understand?

Or could you not stay focused long enough to read all that?

Here, try this: Go back to my post and take out the part where I used his stats from four years ago to “justify” him batting second. Can you do that? No? OK, nevermind.

Mr Baseball’s point was a good one, as I noted. Your point … well, you didn’t make one. Not that had any basis in what was said, at least.

By Devine was Ryan Leaf

January 14, 2008 11:40 PM | Link to this

The Braves could trade for Alex Rodriguez, Johan Santana, and Albert Pujols but some of these putzes would crawl up into the fetal position under their desk, sucking their thumb, and crying because the Braves traded some some basketcase minor leaguer RELIEVER who was only gonna be more of a basketcase after being sent down yet again next year …… most likely after walking more than one batter an inning and giving up yet another grand slam or two. Get over it. The Braves just traded away Ryan Leaf. What the hell are you folks all crying about? Concern yourselves with other more serious matters like the price of milk.

By David O'Brien

January 14, 2008 11:41 PM | Link to this

Brain, see above response to YankeeDawg.

(Man, I really didn’t think that was confusing. Sorry to do that to a few of you.)

By uga-brave

January 14, 2008 11:44 PM | Link to this

while economoics will always rule baseball, it’s still sad to see richmond and the braves part ways.

something special about a small town and minor league baseball. maybe i saw bull durham too many times but i dont think too many people in gwinett county will forge a bond with a minor league team when the big club is just down the road.

By N8

January 14, 2008 11:46 PM | Link to this

DOB

The following, is from si.com’s website. It is listed at the top of the article as an “AP” story, so I’m pretty sure it’s not Heyman, or that douchebag Dayn Perry….oh wait. He’s on foxsports’ website. :-)

“But Devine put up good numbers in the minors, including 78 strikeouts in 57 innings last season, and would have contended for a spot in Atlanta’s shaky bullpen.”

I know we don’t necessarily have the re-incarnation of the the Nasty Boys, and probably aren’t as dominant as the mid-90’s Yankees bullpens were….but shaky?

I’m not sure were in that bad of shape out there, or do you disagree?

By N8

January 14, 2008 11:54 PM | Link to this

DOB

Don’t you love it when you a replying to a STUPID post with logic and reason (and a tinge of sarcasm), and the rest of the free world thinks that the “response” is your mission statement?

I sometimes wonder if many of the bloggers actually read the other posts or not. Many times, if I’m away for a while, or in a hurry, I’ll read only your posts to get the “pulse” of the blog for the day.

But if there is every any of your posts that catch my attention as odd, I’ll scroll back up to find the person you are responding to (since you are pretty consistent in letting whoever it is you’re responding to that it is directed at them).

It’s not rocket science people. It’s a blog.

By Waive Goodbye To America's Team

January 14, 2008 11:57 PM | Link to this

The move from Richmond somewhat signifies that the Braves are going more and more away from the grand vision of Ted as America’s Team. They have more and more gone from America’s Team to a regional team and perhaps now a local team.

That’s not bad. It’s pretty sound marketing. Most of the fans who are gonna come to games are gonna be from within a 150 mile radius of the Ted I would guess. So why not sprinkle minor league teams throughout that area so that fans become more emotionally invested in the kids before they are stars and then follow those kids up to the Braves when they get called up?

It’s no different than how the Dawgs are so wildly popular with those have never once set foot on the campus of UGA. High school football is pretty darn popular in this state. Many people become emotionally invested in those kids when they are in high school. The best high school players in Georgia typically go to play for UGA. Those fans who knew the kid in high school and became emotionally invested in the kid, start watching their kid play at Georgia and become hooked on the team. It’s alot more complicated than that obviously but that is a reason many become fans of the Dawgs.

It’s no different than the marketing success the Braves have had with all of the local Georgia products highlighted by Frenchy and McCann. Why not get the local fans not only emotionally invested in the local high school kids who done good by making the Braves but also emotionally invested in minor leaguers they got to see before they were stars?

Of course for my theory to make sense, the AA team would be in Macon and not in Mississippi but what the hell, I’ll just throw it out there anyway.

By David O'Brien

January 15, 2008 12:01 AM | Link to this

TennPaul, here’s what I meant: Yates pitched in 15 of the Braves’ 26 games June 29 to July 28, and posted an 11.45 ERA and .392 opponents’ average in that stretch.

By Shook One

January 15, 2008 12:03 AM | Link to this

Shaky pen, huh? The Braves bullpen was ranked third in the NL in ERA in 2007. I would hate to see what the other 13 crappy and shaky National League bullpens looked like.

By David O'Brien

January 15, 2008 12:04 AM | Link to this

N8, I haven’t heard many refer to the Braves’ 2008 bullpen as “shaky.” At least not yet. It compares quite favorably with most NL ‘pens.

By mr baseball

January 15, 2008 12:06 AM | Link to this

As much grief as I have given the genius ex-GM, I will say this in his defense. He made a lot more dubious trades than most on this blog want to admit, but one thing he was accomplished at was dealing promising pitching prospects who never panned out. Wren is apparently trying to follow in his footsteps.

About the only 2 pitchers who developed into quality major leaguers after the Braves traded them were Schmidt & Wainwright, and the Braves at least got quality in return, although for just a year in Drew’s case.

For those up in arms about the departure of Devine, here’s a little stroll down memory lane.

Bruce Chen Odalis Perez Jason Marquis Bing Bang Bong (sorry, forgot his first 2 names) some kid named Rivera Damian Moss Jose Capellan Roman Colon Dan Meyer Horacio Ramirez Kyle Davies (Braves might live to regret that one)

That doesn’t entirely make up for Justice/Grissom; Jermaine Dye; Boone/Klesko; and the trade for Tex if they don’t resign him. But it’s pretty clear that the Braves have come to the conclusion that most of the pitchers they develop aren’t going to amount to much, so why not deal them for position players who are more likely to be productive.

When Lou Piniella was in Seattle, he made the following comment about John Schuerholz.

(Paraphrasing here)

“If John Schuerholz starts talking to you about a trade involving one of his young pitchers, run out of the room as fast as you can.”

About the only GM who failed to heed that advice and got away with it was whoever in St. Louis engineered the Drew/Wainwright deal, which was an absolute steal from the Cardinals’ point of view. As well as Drew played in his one year here, the Braves could have taken a comparable gamble with a free agent (Jose Guillen, Raul Ibanez). But that would have required that the Braves shell out a few bucks about what they consider to be market value, and as they have repeatedly proven, they would rather deal prospects than dip into the cash reserves.

Coach (if you’ve made it this far), not necessarily down on the Kotsay deal. Like most of your responses to my posts, you again came away with the wrong conclusion. I’m skeptical because of Kotsay’s back, but Devine is not that high a price to pay, unless Kotsay is completely shot.

By N8

January 15, 2008 12:06 AM | Link to this

Waive Goodbye To America’s Team

Nice post. It’s like the old saying goes:

“When in Rome…”

OK. So that doesn’t apply here. But I did watch Anchorman recently.

By David O'Brien

January 15, 2008 12:06 AM | Link to this

Braint and YankeeDawg: Please read this slowly and try to break it down sentence by sentence, to distill its meaning:

By Cliff January 14, 2008 3:46 PM | Link to this Surely the Braves management has enough sense to bat Kotsay lower. IF they get him at near his peak he is still not good enough OBP to bat higher than 8th on this club.

Now, to me, what Cliff said was, even IF (his caps) the Braves got Kotsay at or (I added or, because I think he meant to have it there) his peak, he still was not good enough, or didn’t have a good enough OBP (not sure exactly which he meant there) to bat higher than eighth on this team.

To which I replied by using Kotsay’s stats in precisely his best season (remember, Cliff sat Kotsay at his peak) to point out how absurd that assertion was.

Kotsay hit .314 with 37 doubles, 15 homers and a .370 OBP in his best year, his “peak” if you will. Can you wrap your minds around Cliff’s post and my response now? If not, it’s OK, really.

By Kentavo

January 15, 2008 12:10 AM | Link to this

Gwinnnett move could bite Braves in the butt, only because people in Gwinnettt will be going to see AAA Bravos more often than the big boys with cheaper ticket prices, new stadium, no parking hassles, etc. All the Gwinnetians afraid of downtown Atlanta will have the perfect excuse not to make it to the Ted. Is there a Triple A affiliate so close to the big club for any other franchise?

As for Andruw Jones - people tend to forget that he’s basically the poster boy for Braves’ postseason futility. Yeah, he crushed two dingers in his first playoff game against they Yanks, but the Braves’ Oct. swoon coincides with Andruw’s tenure? Conicidence (well I just said it coincided, so…)? I think it was a manifestation of Andruw’s attitude. I know he liked to win - but losing and and not delivering in the clutch didn’t bother him enough. That’s the difference. It’s obvious the Braves finally had enough him as they made an announcement that they weren’t going to resign him. When have they done that? They usually at least go thru the motions and make a weak offer.

By N8

January 15, 2008 12:10 AM | Link to this

DOB

I knew our bullpen was pretty darn good last year, and many things can happen to change it for better or for worse in between now and April.

But I too, had not heard ANYBODY refer to our bullpen as anything but very good.

But every now and then, one needs to get an opinion from elsewhere to see through the blurriness that can be in your way, as a fan.

By N8

January 15, 2008 12:16 AM | Link to this

DOB

When you say “(his caps)”, is it really necessary to use that “tone”?

:-)

By TennesseePaul

January 15, 2008 12:18 AM | Link to this

DOB: I know. I’ve gone through it and I agree, he was over used. But the point being, he’ll be over used again. It’s what Cox does.

By N8

January 15, 2008 12:23 AM | Link to this

Kentavo

I’m not from the Metro-Atlanta area (so I’m not sure of the proximity of the distance), but the Rockies AAA team is located in Co. Springs which is “listed” at about 60 miles from Denver, but it’s getting closer and closer in distance every year I go down there.

I know that in Everett Washington (very close to Seattle), the Giants used to have a minor league team there, and in recent years, the Mariners have moved one of their teams there. Not sure if it’s AA or AAA ball, though.

But I think that DOB’s comment about ease of bringing players up and sending them down (when both teams are at home), makes a LOT of sense. When a guy can get in his car and make it to the park in less time than it would take to check his baggage at the airport, that’s a good thing. Especially in the case of an injury.

By uga-brave

January 15, 2008 12:34 AM | Link to this

tennpaul,

he was overworked because there were no other choices. james, davies, and whoever never made it past five.

that was the problem. three consevutive games every time through the rotation when the starters gave you 15 or so innings.

mcbride was a mess, villareal was average, moylan had 80 appearances, wickman would not pitch unless it was a save opportunity, sorriano was burned up, just no other options.

its been said many times here that the lack of innings from the back of the rotation killed this team in june and july and i think it is pretty evident.

By Canuckbravesfan

January 15, 2008 12:49 AM | Link to this

DOB Just watched the video of Johnny Cash TV shows ‘69-‘71 which I got on e-bay for less than 10 bucks. Some great tracks on the DVD including the first ever performance of “The Man in Black” which JC did for a college audience. If you haven’t seen it, there are lots more available. Neil Young, Bob Dylan and others as well. With Jamie Richmond gone, we only have one Canadian to root for in the system, and unforunately, it happens to be everyone’s whipping boy, Scott Thorman. Oh well !

By ColoradoBravesFan

January 15, 2008 12:52 AM | Link to this

N8, I live in Colorado Springs very near Sky Sox stadium. It takes me about an hour and 15 mins with the kids in tow drive up to Coors Field. I usually see the Braves when they come to play the Rockies, but will miss it this year. Also, I don’t think having the Braves AAA team so close to the Ted will hurt Braves attendance. We usually go to AAA games like going to the movies or out to dinner, not like the event of going to the Braves Games. Hope Kotsay rakes this year…Go Braves

By Secret Code of Braves Fans

January 15, 2008 12:53 AM | Link to this

Every minor leaguer is a future superstar.

Every time a minor leaguer is traded, it is a travesty.

Every vet is good but you would rather see a minor leaguer play that position.

Every time a vet is traded, he sucked anyway.

Everytime a vet signs with another team, he sucked anyway …….. unless the Braves offered said vet some inferior offer to sign …… then the fan shall proclaim that player a great player who was a disloyal traitor who only cared about money and the union and never cared about winning ……… but if the team does not offer a contract to said player, then that vet was horrible and should have never spent a decade playing in Atlanta ….. all he really did was hit two homers in a World Series over a decade ago anyway, right?

Every vet should be like Chipper and Smoltz and stupidly sign contracts that pay them at least $5 million less per year than they would get on the open market.

No trade makes sense until the Braves make the trade. Then it makes perfect sense and shall be immediately hailed as further proof of genius.

No free agent is worth signing …… until the Braves sign him.

The Braves shall not field the best team possible. The Braves shall only field the most economically responsible team that allows the faceless corporate owners to make the most profit it can.

Benches and bullpens are not important. Focus only on rotations and lineups and wonder what caused all the playoff frustration.

Many millions more means getting rid of a few good players and then just giving raises to the remainder of the players left from the team that finished in third place the last two seasons.

By Canuckbravesfan

January 15, 2008 12:55 AM | Link to this

N8—I believe the Mariners AAA team is in Tacoma, which is just a long fly ball from Seattle.

By Secret Code of Braves Fans

January 15, 2008 1:01 AM | Link to this

Benches and pens should not be filled with the best players available …… just those who are out of options and/or remind Bobby of the kind of scrappy scrubby backup he used to be.

Cox is a genuis. Scheurholz is a genuis. All those playoff losses had nothing not do with one not providing all the talent necessary or, if all the necessary talent was provided, the other not maximizing the potential of that talent in the postseason. All that matters is that they got there, not whether they won or not.

By Roman Gal

January 15, 2008 1:34 AM | Link to this

Okay, so not south GA. But they could put them somewhere else. Honestly, I don’t care where they put the AAA team. I’m just trying to wrap my head around why they would bring them so dang close to Atlanta. I’m sure there are plenty of places in neighboring states that would love to have a minor league baseball.

And by the way, Joebrave, I have been to south Georgia recently. I went to GA Southern a few weeks ago and it is like a ghost-town all the way down I-16. Lots of cop hiding places on the side of the road, too. I guess they have nothing better to do down there than give speeding tickets and arrest jaywalkers.

By Roman Gal

January 15, 2008 2:02 AM | Link to this

R-BRAVES’ DEPARTURE IS CITY’S ERROR

By BOB LIPPER TIMES-DISPATCH COLUMNIST We diddled around too long.

It all boils down to that.

We kept hitching our belt and pawing the dirt.

Peered in from the mound for the sign.

Backed away from the plate.

Never threw the pitch.

Never swung the bat.

You twiddle your site studies and political gamesmanship long enough, people get antsy and look for alternatives. That’s apparently what happened for the A-Braves, who — unless news reports are more off-target than a John Rocker rant or fastball — will yank their Triple-A entry from our Diamond in a season or so and move it to suburban Gwinnett County.

This town won’t dry up without baseball if it comes to that. We have theater, music, museums, movies, NASCAR, the Rams, the Spiders, the Panthers, the Kickers, the Renegades, high schools, Little League, a bunch of diversions and options. We could get by without dingers and three-hit shutouts. We’d live.

But baseball matters — otherwise, its Triple-A roots here wouldn’t run 55 years deep. It matters to a lot of people. It matters as entertainment outlet. It matters as city calling card.

“I think it’s certainly a deep loss to our region and our community,” supermarket exec and civic leader Jim Ukrop said yesterday. “I think we’ve all known [the Braves] have been anxious to move on a new ballpark or a renovated ballpark. It’s a very sad day for Richmond.”

This loss is on Da Mayor. Doug Wilder maybe isn’t alone in the box score — it takes two to tangle — but he’s the pitcher of record for this grim setback. Yeah, he protected the city’s financial stake by not blindly throwing millions at a pro sports operation that frankly hasn’t put a splendid product on the field in recent years.

But he’s also the guy who threw the process a mid-life curveball with his cockamamie proposal to place a stadium in a floodplain at Fulton Gas Works.

And he fiddled while Braves honchos yearned and didn’t close the deal.

That’s no wonder, either. You go to war on an hourly basis with your city council, your school board, your city auditor and anyone else who crosses your path, you probably don’t have time or energy for positive — or even neutral — undertakings. And so a valued tenant takes flight.

Understand, the A-Braves aren’t innocent choirboys here. While the city was presumably engaged in dialogue with the Braves, they were playing footsie with Gwinnett County and planning their escape route — or do you suppose this deal for a new Triple-A arena on the outskirts of Hotlanta was just thrown together over the weekend?

But that’s the way you do business in the big leagues. Bryan Bostic, a local businessman whose grandfather helped bring Triple-A to Richmond in 1953, knows how that goes.

“I’m not surprised at all,” Bostic said. “I’m very disappointed, but I’m not surprised. Four years ago, I stated that if we didn’t provide a viable solution, the Braves were going to leave — just as they did in Macon and Greenville. They’re a business, and they have to operate as a business.”

Back in 2004, Bostic was part of a group that pushed for a new stadium in Shockoe Bottom — a problematic approach but a worthy talking point. R-Braves GM Bruce Baldwin backed that effort. Mostly, he backed movement of any sort that would end with his team in a new home.

“We want to have closure on this,” Baldwin said then. “I don’t want to waste any more time.”

Four years later, we’ve got two out in the bottom of the ninth, and it’s an 0-2 count.

We dropped the ball.

By Roman Gal

January 15, 2008 2:04 AM | Link to this

What are they saying?

By Coach (Lets Go Braves In 2008)

January 15, 2008 2:22 AM | Link to this

mr. baseball wrote : If it turns out Kotsay’s back is shot and his stats last year are about what the Braves can expect this season, it will be another in a long line of the Braves basically giving away prospects (mostly pitchers) for short term (or no term) gains.

Dude , I can read. Your tone was negative toward this trade , which is pessimistic.

The fact is , in 2007 , Kotsay only played in 56 games and he wasn’t completely recovered from back surgery. The man just passed his physical , we can expect better numbers from Kotsay this season.

Kotsay’s back isn’t shot , the Braves would not make this trade otherwise.

JB , He can’t be compared to Josh Anderson or Gregor Blanco , they are kids with little or no major league experience. As I have already stated , Mark Kotsay is an above average veteran defender.

I’ll repeat myself , Mark Kotsay has a BOZOOKA for a throwing arm that rivals that of Jeff Francoeur.

Example : Francoeur posted 19 assists last season at the age of 23 while playing all 162 games.

Mark Kotsay posted 20 assists during the 1999 season at the age of 23 in 129 games while playing RF.

Kotsay has posted double figures in assists in six different seasons , Andruw Jones has done that five times his whole career.

Repeating myself again , the Braves traded for Kotsay because of his defense , experience , leadership , intensity , etc. These are qualities not possesed by Anderson , Blanco or Schafer.

If he puts up decent offensive numbers , even better. However , Andruw is gone , we are not going to see 30-40 HR’s and 100 RBI seasons from CF anytime soon. In fact , we may never see it again , ever.

Oakland has this fella by the name of Huston Street who has 76 saves during the last three seasons. Joey Devine will be at best a setup man in the A’s bullpen.

This trade has solid potential. However , until Joey Devine and or Mark Kotsay step onto the field on a regular basis , it remains a rather minor trade.

By rotgut

January 15, 2008 2:37 AM | Link to this

DOB and all other gamblers-

Which team has the better odds?

the Jayhawks going undefeated this year on the hardwood -OR- the Braves winning the East in 2008?!

And for a bonus: UGA Dawgs winning the Orange Bowl next year with a #1 ranking or Mike Hampton winning 6+ games in 08?

My own personal opinion is Tex for MVP/Moreno for Heisman! Dawgs win by 10 over USC (Fans get the Rose Bowl matchup they missed in 07) and Braves win by 10 games over Mets and eventually lose in 16 innings to a less talented team in the NDLS. whaddaya think?

By Coach (Lets Go Braves In 2008)

January 15, 2008 3:28 AM | Link to this

As for all you guys who are overstating the value of Joey Devine.

On a good day , his fastball tops out at 97. Devine regularly hits 95-96 on the radar gun , that’s just not hard enough to be a dominant closer.

The Braves already know this , Oakland will soon find that out.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves In 2008)

January 15, 2008 4:19 AM | Link to this

Here is the audio/video link for Mark Kotsay :

http://oakland.athletics.mlb.com/team/playermedia.jsp?playerid=117276

By CharlieAlphaBravo

January 15, 2008 4:20 AM | Link to this

DOB: Kotsay should bat second just because his numbers were good four years ago?? Whoa there, just kidding… Don’t want your head to explode. That was a truly surreal clusterf—- of misunderstanding. Or, more correctly, of poor reading comprehension.

Got to see the DBT show at the 40 Watt on Saturday, and it was spectacular, as usual. That was the first time I heard anything from their new album, and I was thoroughly impressed. Man, those guys really blow the roof off when they play in Athens.

I’m CharlieAlphaBravo, and I approved this trade… I think the Kotsay trade was yet another saavy move by Wren early in his (hopefully long) tenure as GM. We got the stop-gap CF, and he’s a well-liked veteran. Not only that, but the A’s are gonna pay nearly three quarters of his salary next season. Maybe the next time I see Devine pitch, he’ll be giving up a grand slam to my team…

Bring on the mini-Braves!!! I hail from Duluth, so, of course, I couldn’t be more excited about the boys from Richmond relocating. I know I’ll be at The Ted just as much, now I’ll just get extra Bravo baseball! Bully!

By Coach (Lets Go Braves In 2008)

January 15, 2008 4:32 AM | Link to this

Lets try this again :

http://atlanta.braves.mlb.com/team/player.jsp?player_id=117276

http://findarticles.com/p/articles/miqn4176/is20040827/ai_n14584625

By They Call Me Ray

January 15, 2008 6:34 AM | Link to this

I went to GA Southern a few weeks ago and it is like a ghost-town all the way down I-16. Lots of cop hiding places on the side of the road, too. I guess they have nothing better to do down there than give speeding tickets and arrest jaywalkers.

And you act like there is something wrong with this. Speeding on I-16 combined with lunatic jaywalkers trying to cross I-16 is very hazardous.

By They Call Me Abraham

January 15, 2008 6:43 AM | Link to this

Let’s be real about this. The Braves leaving Richmond ain’t exactly on the level with the Colts ditching Baltimore.

By TK

January 15, 2008 8:05 AM | Link to this

The Braves with Kotsay should take the “less is more” choice. Bat him 8th with fewer AB’s. If he is going to hurt his back again it would be more likely at the plate than in the field. Even more so at the first of the year when the weather is cooler and it is harder to get loose. Batting him 8th also lets you see just how well is his back. The Braves do not have to have him at the top of their line up. They do need him in CF.

By Dadgum

January 15, 2008 9:09 AM | Link to this

Roman Gal…thanks for posting Bob Lipper’s article from this morning’s paper. He is right on the money (see my post from 7:20 last night and later response to Gil). Lipper rips our mayor Wilder right from the start. This is a classic case of “you snooze, you lose”.

That said, Richmond just doesn’t make sense as an Atlanta AAA city. First it is 535 miles away. Orioles and Nats are 130 and 100 respectively. In addition the product has lost it’s shelf life and only rarely is in the playoffs save last year. While there are no assurances Gwinnett will fare any better initially at least the cover will be new and exciting.

You see, bottom line is that from a business standpoint Richmond was only pulling in around 6,000 fans a game from about a 1.2 million base drawing area. That also had been decreasing from 8,000 plus since 2002. You couple that with the back and forth stonewalling from the city powers and you have the Braves getting disgusted and seeking other cities. Richmond will land another team and probably in a new ballpark for 2010. It will be AA for sure not AAA and frankly that is a better fit for this population base and city.

By Mike

January 15, 2008 9:21 AM | Link to this

I don’t know why you guys are complaining about the R-Braves moving. I have to deal with much worse here in Savannah… a METS single-A team. Ugh!

By Shaun

January 15, 2008 9:28 AM | Link to this

I don’t know about Kotsay batting second. His career OBP is .337, just slightly above his leagues’ averages. He wouldn’t be an awful number two hitter at all but I’m thinking his OBP will be around his career average, at best.

By Alan

January 15, 2008 9:36 AM | Link to this

Let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves, folks. We’re all passing judgment on Kotsay’s health and what he’s gonna do in ‘08 - and we don’t know. Let’s see him in Spring Training, OK? It was just 1 year ago when many of us (myself included, unfortunately) were waxing poetic about Craig Wilson and Scott Thorman - how this two-headed monster was going to take care of 1B. Yeah, right. Wilson had a horrible spring and it carried over into the regular season. Back in ‘04 or ‘05, it was Gary Matthews Jr. who had a lousy spring and was released before the Braves even left Disney (aka Dark Star). I’m not suggesting this will be Kotsay’s fate, but I don’t know and neither does anyone else. I know this: As a Braves fan, I’m sure going to be rooting for him because he’s in a very important position - defensively it’s the most important position after catcher and short stop. Where he hits in the batting order will depend on how well he does in the spring. For now, though, pencil him in the 2-hole.

By Anders

January 15, 2008 9:38 AM | Link to this

DOB

Anders, I don’t know about that Glavine rumor. But I did hear he turned down a $13 mill option to pitch for the Mets.

And Met fans everywhere breathed a collective sigh of relief. I have to assume you agree with me as the Braves certainly didn’t see him as worthy of $13 mil a year - even in his prime?

By Random

January 15, 2008 10:05 AM | Link to this

*Coach: *Joey Devine was supposed to be the Braves closer three years ago.

Three years ago (14 Jan 05), Devine was still at NC State. He was drafted by the Braves on 7 Jun, and did not hit the ML roster ‘til 20 Aug.

Also: The fact is , in 2007 , Kotsay only played in 56 games and he wasn’t completely recovered from back surgery. The man just passed his physical , we can expect better numbers from Kotsay this season.

Wouldn’t you figure that the As would also have given him a physical last year before reactivating him?

Maybe they just gave him a front physical and the Braves, geniuses that they are, will give him a back physical?

Or maybe too much is being made out being able to pass a physical. (Ref, Mike Gonzalez last year, as someone else has already mentioned.)

By Mike

January 15, 2008 10:14 AM | Link to this

Coach, you stated in your 3:28AM post that Devine wouldn’t be a dominant closer with a fastball that tops out at 97 mph and is regularly 95-96. Can you tell me what Lee Smith and Dennis Eckersley topped out at during their prime? What about Trevor Hoffman and Mariano Rivera? Heck, what about Smoltz in his years as a closer? Dominant closers don’t have to throw 100 mph to shut the door on their opponents.

Will Devine be a dominant closer? Who knows? Does he have the mentality? That has yet to be seen. What about the “stuff” to be dominant? Yes. He just hasn’t been able to put it all together yet.

By Shaun

January 15, 2008 10:19 AM | Link to this

the Braves certainly didn’t see [Glavine] as worthy of $13 mil a year - even in his prime?

Anders, well between 1991 and 1998 Maddux, Clemens, Randy Johnson, David Cone, Jack McDowell, Jimmy Key, Pat Hentgen all made under $10 million a season. Pedro didn’t earn $13 million a season until 2001. So what elite pitcher was being paid $13 million a season in Glavine’s prime? Maybe I’m missing someone.

By Shaun

January 15, 2008 10:26 AM | Link to this

I would add that Devine is still a young pitcher and we all know the injury risks associated with young pitchers.

By Robert (Chipper Is The Best)

January 15, 2008 10:28 AM | Link to this

Exactly, Shaun. Anders just has this “thing” about Glavine. I don’t know what it is.

I know this. The Mets orginization wishes he were there right now. They aren’t getting Santana. That crap about them being in the lead is just ridiculous. The Red Sox have the best offer on the table.

By joebrave

January 15, 2008 10:33 AM | Link to this

Mike,Dude sorry to hear about your plight there in Savannah.

That has to be terrible,having to hear about all those little Mutts being the next great thing…

Sheesh,take a ride out to the Crabshack,on Tybee Island,and cure that illness quick.

By Random

January 15, 2008 10:34 AM | Link to this

Good one, Shaun!

By eware

January 15, 2008 10:36 AM | Link to this

Coach, how does a fastball that clocks regularly at 95-96 mph not make a dominant closer? I’m not understanding your reasoning here…

Cause, 95-96 is heat, baby.

By Gsu-Lee

January 15, 2008 10:38 AM | Link to this

DOB, Have no fear, you are in good hands. Shouldn’t be aything complicated…then again…this is GSU…

By Mike

January 15, 2008 10:42 AM | Link to this

I agree Shaun. And theres a positive to being young too. He’s got time to figure it all out.

Mentally, I think he’s strong. The guy gives up two grand slams in the 2005 playoffs, plays most of the following year between AA and AAA and finishes with an ERA of 1.9x combined. Then comes to Atlanta for 50+ innings and finishes with a 3.08 ERA.

By David O'Brien

January 15, 2008 10:52 AM | Link to this

eware, two words: Jose Capellan

Being able to throw 95 mph, or even 100 mph, does not at all guarantee success in any role, much less in the closer role, which also requires intangibles such as the ability to forget quickly — as in, forget you got rocked today and come back aggressive and confident tomorrow.

Guys like Capellan might throw 100 mph, but if all you can do is throw a straight 100-mph fastball, you’re going to get hit. You can absolutely overwhelm minor league hitters with nothing more than a 100-mph fastball, but top major league hitters will time a straight fastball and and crush it, if that’s all you’re throwing.

By David O'Brien

January 15, 2008 10:56 AM | Link to this

Anders, unlike you, most reasonable Mets fans would prefer to have Glavine today than not have him. At any price (like the difference in $10 mill or $13 mill means anything to the Mets, with their revenue streams and new ballpark on the way. Please.)

You let emotion get in the way of your thinking, my man. You simply don’t know baseball if you believe the Mets’ pitching staff is better off today than it would’ve been if Glavine had returned to your team.

By Anders

January 15, 2008 10:56 AM | Link to this

Shaun

It was a figurative statement. Let’s put it this way - The Braves didn’t think Glavine was worth what the Mets paid him the last 5 or so years or what the Mets were prepared to pay him this year. -Turns out the Braves were right. Is he worth $8 mil this year? In this market - absolutely. Is he an innings eater? He has been for the most part. Is he a lock down 15 game winner anymore - I don’t think so. As for Robert JIB saying I have a thing about Glavine - I will say that Glavine truly spit the bit like no other HOF’er I’ve ever seen coming down the stretch. Sorry guys- that is a fact. Paint it any way you want with how he pitched from July to August etc. His body of work as a Met was mediocre at best and his finish as a Met was horrific. I don’t hate the guy - but I don’t think he will sway the power in the division like many on here believe he will. I’m more concerned that Hampton will come back and be 75% of what he was then I am with Glavine throwing 200 vanilla and painful to sit through as he nibbles the corners innings.

By DAP

January 15, 2008 10:57 AM | Link to this

mr baseball KJ is better in every category (except K’s, a grossly overrarted stat)

not when you are talking about you #2 hitter. this is the guy who should handle the bat extremely well, make contact and NOT STRIKE OUT!

thats my view on the #2 spot, anyways. i really dont think KJ is cut out for it right now…he might cut back on strikeouts in the future, but based on 2007, he should be batting leadoff, or 7th, i think.

kotsay is a good #2 because he is a contact guy, thats it. even if his OBP isnt really high (although, its not bad) he makes contact, so he can move the runner over, good to use in a hit and run, ect.

i think kotsay can handle #2, but im not married to it. i am,very against johnson batting #2 though.

oh, by the way, you scenario with kotsay batting 2nd, and the opposing manager bringing out a lefty reliever …thats another great reason frenchy should be batting 5th all the time.

By CAR3BOOGIE

January 15, 2008 10:58 AM | Link to this

95-96 Plenty fast enough w/ movement to get Pro hitters. Anything straight can be hit by a Pro player, A good fast ball hitter will hit a 100 mph pitch especially if that’s all he has and the hitter knows it is coming. LEGIT 95-96 straight or w/movement is effective at the college level.

By David O'Brien

January 15, 2008 10:59 AM | Link to this

They Call Me Abraham, this Triple-A move is a big story in Atlanta not because the Braves are leaving Richmond, but because they’re coming to Gwinnett County — to suburban Atlanta, in other words.

If they were moving to, say, Scranton, very few Atlanta fans would care much, if at all, about this move. It’s the Gwinnett part that makes it a big story here at the AJC, not the move from Richmond.

By joebrave

January 15, 2008 11:02 AM | Link to this

And, why not Gainesville for the AAA Braves??? Lot’s of people,lots of money,and terrible traffic….

By David O'Brien

January 15, 2008 11:03 AM | Link to this

Canuckbravesfan, I DVR’d that best-of Cash variety show when it was on PBS recently. Great stuff. My favorite was probably seeing Cash and Carl Perkins jamming with Clapton/Derek and the Dominoes. Sublime.

By Anders

January 15, 2008 11:05 AM | Link to this

DOB Agree 100% with your 10:52 post. Give me a guy at 92-95 with some movement any day over a guy throwing straight at 100.

MLB hitters can turn any pitch around if it stays on the same plane. Think Armando Benitez. The harder he threw the less effective he was.

By David O'Brien

January 15, 2008 11:05 AM | Link to this

ColoradoBravesFan: I thoroughly enjoyed your 12:52 a.m. comment. You nailed it.

By DAP

January 15, 2008 11:05 AM | Link to this

jb If a player is going to play less than 145 games, he better have Chipper like numbers.

but if he plays the whole season, its ok not to have chipper numbers? do you know how good chippe ris? youre talking about one of the all-time greats, and its not very fair to expect anybody to match his stats in any capacity.

yeah, if he plays less than 145 games, he had better have an OPS of over 1.000, and hit 30 HRs and over 100 RBIs. ridiculous.

By David O'Brien

January 15, 2008 11:10 AM | Link to this

Eware, I just got to Coach’s post, the one you were responding to about 95-97 mph, etc. Now I see why you were disagreeing with him.

Obviously there are plenty of dominant closers who don’t throw harder than 95-96 mph. That’s not what it’s about in most cases. It’s more often about about location and movement than mere velocity, though the latter certainly helps.

To say a closer has to throw 97 on a regular basis is silly. Just look at the best closers in the game in recent years. Hoffman does it with a vicious changeup and modest fastball. Rivera does it with a cutter, not a 98 mph fastball.

The ones who only throw hard are the ones who usually blow out after 2-3 good years, if not sooner.

By Shaun

January 15, 2008 11:13 AM | Link to this

DAP, contact is certainly nice in order to advance runners. But outs are more valuable than bases. I’d rather have a runner on first with no outs than a runner on second with one out. I’m not sure at what point a team should sacrifice OBP for contact ability in a number two hitter. The OB ability of the leadoff hitter probably plays a role (and I think Kelly Johnson should be leading off because of his OBP ability).

By joebrave

January 15, 2008 11:15 AM | Link to this

I,have a refutative statement for the whiners,and moaners here. before you guys bemoan any moves by Frank Wren,first of all we shoul be grateful to have a Major League Baseball team,wit a comittment to winning,I remember the Bad years,and for 14 glorious years,a pennant flag flew over the Stadium,No other team in History has done that.

For those of you,that lambaste,J.Schuerholz,I ask would you rather have had Paul Richards back??

It seems to me Mr. Richards is the one that traded Dusty Baker,or maybe John Mullen?? Remember Brett Butler,Brooke Jacoby????

I will take what the present Braves hierarchy has provided,any day of the week…

By Beisbol

January 15, 2008 11:20 AM | Link to this

Kotsay has never really played on a good offensive team that scored over 5 runs a game. Many of his teams failed to score 700 runs for the season. Maybe he’s part of the reason for that. However, he has personally thrived when surrounded by good hitters. OBP is dynamic. It is subject to change depending upon the quality of the environment you hit in, including the runners on base when you bat and the hitters standing in the on deck circle. Hitting on better teams with more men on base and more hitters behind you that scare pitchers, can turn a .330 OBP guy into a .360 OBP guy.

Kotsay’s best seasons occurred in 2000, 2001, 2002, and 2004. In 2000, he batted second and had Luis Castillo acting like an OBP machine ahead of him, and had respectable hitters like Cliff Floyd, Derrek Lee, Mike Lowell, Kevin Millar, Preston Wilson coming up behind him and having good seasons. In 2001, he batted second and had Rickey Henderson in front of him and Phil Nevin and Ryan Klesko right behind him. In 2002, he suffered batting second - likely because there was no quality leadoff guy on the Pods and Nevin was in decline. He did thrive for about 40 games batting leadoff that season however. In 2004, he thrived hitting leadoff with Durazo and Chavez having good seasons behind him.

In 2006 & 2007, he was hurt. In 2005, he was not surrounded by good hitters in Oakland. In 2003, he was not surrounded by good hitters in San Diego. In 1998 & 1999, he was not surrounded by good hitters and he was too young to expect too much anyway.

By Gil in Mechanicsville

January 15, 2008 11:22 AM | Link to this

Good morning Braves fans, a little ditty I would like to dedicate to the Braves front office this morning…. A little MOTOWN ……. Courtesy of the Temptations.

Smiling faces sometimes pretend to be your friend Smiling faces show no traces of the evil that lurks within Smiling faces, smiling faces sometimes They don’t tell the truth uh Smiling faces, smiling faces Tell lies and I got proof The truth is in the eyes Cause the eyes don’t lie, amen

Remember a smile is just A frown turned upside down My friend let me tell you Smiling faces, smiling faces sometimes They don’t tell the truth, uh Smiling faces, smiling faces Tell lies and I got proof

Beware, beware of the handshake That hides the snake I’m telling you beware Beware of the pat on the back It just might hold you back Jealousy (jealousy) Misery (misery) Envy I tell you, you can’t see behind smiling faces Smiling faces sometimes they don’t tell the truth Smiling faces, smiling faces Tell lies and I got proof Smiling faces, smiling faces sometimes They don’t tell the truth Smiling faces, smiling faces Tell lies and I got proof

By Robert (Chipper Is The Best)

January 15, 2008 11:22 AM | Link to this

Anders, I don’t deny Glavine sucked down the stretch but he wasn’t the only one. Where was you all everything SS, Jose Reyes? Carlos Delgado? Paul Lo Duca? That so-called great bullpen?

Fact is, except for David Wright and Moises Alou the entire team sucked. It wasn’t Glavine’s fault alone that the Mets blew that lead. Yes, he got shelled in the last game of the year when all the Mets had to do was win the game but don’t you think its fair to say a team with a 7 game lead and 18 games left to play should’ve never been in that position in the first place?

By Mike

January 15, 2008 11:22 AM | Link to this

Beat you to that DOB

By Lew

January 15, 2008 11:26 AM | Link to this

As far as I’m concerned, the jury is out on Kotsay. I would have felt comfortable letting the kids take over center for a year or so, until Schaeffer was ready.

However, what if Kotsay does go down with an injury? Will we be any worse off than we were anyway? Don’t we still have the kids? Another thing-Back problems are one health issue I’ve never had, but isn’t disc surgery and the recovery from it pretty well basic anymore? Isn’t it something that a person recovers from after the offending disc has been repaired?

By nOLIE

January 15, 2008 11:30 AM | Link to this

Sabernomics has an Economic take on the MOVE TO GWINNETT

By DAP

January 15, 2008 11:32 AM | Link to this

stinky And personally, I don’t think that Drew-for-Wainwright deal was bad, either…

JS must have pictures of Dob in a compromising position.

JD Drew carried the braves to the post season in 2004, and wainwright didnt even play. the braves would have ended thier streak at 11 if it werent for drew. i do and will always think it was a good trade

Serge Joey Devine right now is better than Tyler Yates and thats not considering the considerable upside he has.

theres really no evidence of that, since yates has over 8 times the ML experience of devine and is literally unhittable at times. ESPECIALLY if you dont consider devine’s upside. this is just a false statement.

By David O'Brien

January 15, 2008 11:35 AM | Link to this

Robert (CIB): Two terrible starts and one bad/mediocre one. That was Glavine’s “bad down the stretch.” His last three starts of the season. Anders would love to have you believe it was more, but that’s what it was. His last three starts. Ask Anders for Glavine’s stats in his 10 or so starts before those three. Or in his 15 starts before those three.

By Anders

January 15, 2008 11:37 AM | Link to this

DOB

It’s been documented that the Mets were willing to give Glavine the $13 mil and have him back. I get that. Would they be better with him as they are presently constituted? - of course. But if having him back in any way would deter the Mets from trying to pry an ace loose such as Santana, Bedard or Haren when he was available then I’m glad he left. I know you think teams like the Mets can just keep throwing money on the pile but I do think Minaya does have to answer for some semblance of a budget. If Glavine came back I think the Mets would be less agressive when chasing these other guys thinking they have Glavine, Perez, Maine and Pedro to start with.

Anyway, this all started with a joke to you about Fanfest - wasn’t looking to rehash all of this.

BTW- Are you going to the Thurman Munson awards in NYC? None other than David Wright is an honoree. He’s also receiving the Bart Giammatti award this year too. I think that may be at the Writers Dinner at The Waldorf.

Any thoughts from Chipper on DW getting these instead of him or others?

By David O'Brien

January 15, 2008 11:37 AM | Link to this

DAP, at 11:05 you beat me to the response to JB’s post. He’s just silly in his assertions. Ridiculous.

By joebrave

January 15, 2008 11:40 AM | Link to this

ahhh!the middle of Janurary,I’m starting to smell the popcorn,and peanuts… Spring Training is just around the corner… I,like the Team makeup at this point,something that has been missing for awhile Options…

Options in the rotation,options in the field,very good job Liberty,and Management!!!

By Coach (Lets Go Braves in 2008)

January 15, 2008 11:42 AM | Link to this

Joey Devine throws side arm , combined with his inability to command his fastball consistently enough , he will never be a dominant closer.

That doesn’t mean he won’t get the chance. Maybe I should have been more clear in my choice of words in this regard.

Whether a pitcher throws 100 , 95 or 90 , if he can’t locate consistently , he won’t be successful.

The key word hear is DOMINANT and Joey Devine will never be that guy.

Maybe Devine is destined to be a setup man or mop up guy. After all , the Braves traded him for a reason and it wasn’t just Kotsay.

By Champ

January 15, 2008 11:44 AM | Link to this

I believe Kotsay will hit in the .260’s at worst, and .280’s at best. If this is our opening day team, these are my predictions for the team:

Smoltz - 15-8, 3.12 ERA, 190 SO Hudson - 14-10, 3.34 ERA Glavine - 12-11, 3.82 ERA James - 13-11, 3.77 ERA Jurrjens - 8-12, 4.42 ERA

Escobar - .279 BA, .363 OBP, 9 HR Kotsay - .271 BA, .350 OBP, 11 HR Chipper - .321 BA, 33 HR, 108 RBI Tex - .296 BA, 39 HR, 127 RBI Franceour - .303 BA, 26 HR, 113 RBI McCann - .292 BA, 23 HR, 89 RBI KJ - .284 BA, 21 HR, 81 RBI, .388 OBP Diaz/BJ - .280 BA, 18 HR, 75 RBI

Soriano - 38 SV, 2.45 ERA Moylan - 70 App., 2.05 ERA

By joebrave

January 15, 2008 11:49 AM | Link to this

What’s the worst case scenario,for Kotsay? maybe he tanks,maybe not,however trust should be put in the Major League scouts for the Braves!!

These guys didn’t just walk in off the street and into their jobs…I mean the have to know maybe just a little bit more than,the outside population…

By Get 'em on, get 'em over, get 'em in

January 15, 2008 11:50 AM | Link to this

But outs are more valuable than bases. I’d rather have a runner on first with no outs than a runner on second with one out. I’m not sure at what point a team should sacrifice OBP for contact ability in a number two hitter.

It’s not really the number of plate appearances you get with men on base. It is the number of plate appearances you get with men in scoring position and how well you execute with men in scoring position that separates the good offensive teams from the bad offensive teams. Who cares about getting the man on if he never gets into scoring position. And who cares how often the man gets himself into scoring position if the other men are not good enough to score him.

75% of all runs scored in the National League last year were scored with RISP.

12% were scored on solo homers.

12% were scored with only a man on first.

Sacrifice plate appearances where you are less likely to score to create more plate appearances where you are more likely to score.

Get ‘em on. Get ‘em over. Get ‘em in.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves in 2008)

January 15, 2008 11:52 AM | Link to this

Random , your being ridiculous. Three years , three seasons or whatever. Devine had his chance in 05-06 and 07. He blew it and the Braves traded him.

By Anders

January 15, 2008 11:53 AM | Link to this

RobertJIB

Glavine got shelled the last three games (DOB says two) but whatever. I agree many didn’t play well but I guarantee if you put Smoltz in his place he would have willed himself to at least one win and probably more. I’m not blaming the whole collapse on Glavine, but when discussing him leaving the Mets all I can say is he didn’t show me the guts I expect from a veteran HOF pitcher down the stretch. A true ace puts the brakes on losing streaks - he had 3 chances to do so and failed miserably on all. He basically said it himself:

“On top of that, I told the Mets, and my agent can attest to it, that I didn’t think I was worth $13 million. I don’t think I’m that kind of pitcher anymore. There’s enough pressure to go out there and pitch in this game, without the pressure of feeling like you have to prove you’re worth a certain amount of money.

I guess at $8 mil he doesn’t feel he has the pressure to prove anything to anyone. He didn’t leave the Mets - He left the pressure. Good luck to all.

By Shaun

January 15, 2008 11:55 AM | Link to this

Beisbol, is OBP really all that dynamic? I’m not so sure that it is. I know ballpark can affect OBP, and intentional walks (I don’t think he would have posted a .500 OBP in a season if managers were wise enough to realize that they were probably hurting themselves more by walking Bonds).

A way to test this is to look at the leader boards. If OBP is dynamic the same players and teams should not rank in the same order from year-to-year. Without doing an in-depth, scientific study, it does seem like the same players and teams are reasonably consistent in their OBP rankings from year-to-year which would mean maybe OBP is not all that dynamic (unless there are some unusual circumstances).

By David O'Brien

January 15, 2008 11:56 AM | Link to this

A QUOTE REQUEST TO BRAVES FANS FROM THE METRO ATLANTA AREA:

I’m writing a story on the move from a baseball standpoint, what it means for the Braves, why it does or doesn’t make sense.

If you live here, especially in Gwinnett, what do you think of the Triple-A team’s moving from Richmond to Gwinnett? In particular, do you believe folks will be more or less inclined to go see the big-league club after getting a taste of the Triple-A product? For example, might you be more inclined to go see a weekend Braves game after taking the kids to a Triple-A game in Gwinnett? Or less inclined to pay big-league prices after getting baseball so much cheaper at the Triple-A level?

Do you think some Atlanta-area fans will drive up to Gwinnett on a regular basis to see some Braves prospects or rehabbing big-leaguers?

Anything you want to say, but keep it BRIEF, please, because I’ll only be able to use a few quotes, tops, and only concise, good quotes.

MUST give me your name, phone (to verify, if necessary) and hometown.

SEND TO MY E-MAIL ADDRESS if you want to be quoted in the paper (no guarantees you will be, but give me a snappy quote and you might):

E-mail address: dobrien@ajc.om

Thanks in advance.

By joebrave

January 15, 2008 12:00 PM | Link to this

What’s the worst case scenario,for Kotsay? maybe he tanks,maybe not,however trust should be put in the Major League scouts for the Braves!!

These guys didn’t just walk in off the street and into their jobs…I mean the have to know maybe just a little bit more than,the outside population…

By rich brave

January 15, 2008 12:01 PM | Link to this

GUYS:

Devine’s gone just like Braves baseball in Richmond. Let’s move on. What’s next? How about what to do with those six guys out of options.

By Mike

January 15, 2008 12:03 PM | Link to this

Coach, I agree with a closer needing to locate his pitches, but as far as throwing side-arm? Are you kidding?? That has nothing at all to do with how dominant a pitcher can be. Randy Johnson (not completely side-arm, but 3/4, much like Devine) is one of the best examples I can think of as a starter. And Eckersley (again) as a closer. Has absolutely nothing to do with dominance.

In fact, pitchers who throw side-arm or 3/4 typically have more movement on their piches as well. Another example, Peter Moylan.

Dominating closers must have the ability to locate pitches, change speeds effectively, and have the mental makeup of a one man army. Period.

By eware

January 15, 2008 12:03 PM | Link to this

THIS JUST IN…David Wright has won the Michigan primaries - for both parties!

Said John McCain: “I just don’t get it, how can a guy with 21 errors beat me? My only error was getting shot down by the VietCong.”

By McFann

January 15, 2008 12:07 PM | Link to this

OK, let’s see. Just got a chance to go over the blog. Oh…where to start?

I KNOW lots of people thought Salty was better than McCann, so you people better be glad I wasn’t a member of the blog at that time. Sure, he was a fine player and all, but…nya! I was happy he got traded…uh…so he’d…have the chance to play everyday as a catcher! Yeah, yeah! Salty’s more of a defensive guy, I guess. (But for me, he was sort of “offensive”, nyuck nyuck!!)

Ahh…but seriously, folks. I always just felt kinda bad for Divine. I mean, it was always come up, go down, come up, go down and stay there. But then again, how cann you feel sorry for a guy that got a chance to play in the Bigs? So never mind. Anyway, I just don’t like Yates…at all. But I guess he was good sometimes…maybe…hmm. Off hand I can’t think of when that was, but I’m sure there must’ve been some game. But everybody’s entitled to have some off-days, I suppose.…it just happened that his on of his off-days was September 24, 2006. That sealed the deal on my dislike for him. Call it “childish” if you like, I don’t care.

By Tom Glavine

January 15, 2008 12:08 PM | Link to this

FINE, FINE, FINE, Anders, I was devastated, not just disappointed. Does that make you happy? BTW, the Braves were not the dumb ones trying to offer me $13 million dollars. It was your Mets that were so darn desperate they offered me $13 million. In case you have not noticed, the Braves have believed for the past 6 seasons that I was not worth the money you dopes offered and paid me.

And good luck with your rotation next season. I have a funny feeling that rotation I left behind will have you once again feeling devastated, not just disappointed.

And get over the bitterness already. It’s not healthy. That bitter face you keep making is making your face all squishy looking. You kinda look like Renee Zellwegger with that permanent bitter face.

By David O'Brien

January 15, 2008 12:09 PM | Link to this

Coach, I’ve got a similar feeling about Devine: Maybe he’ll be a good setup guy, but I just don’t get the impression he’ll be a quality closer. He’s got the stuff, but I haven’t seen enough to believe he could thrive in the role and hold up physically and mentally for the long haul in the role.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves in 2008)

January 15, 2008 12:10 PM | Link to this

And O’Brien , your ludicrous statement concerning the Wainwright/Marquis trade to the Cardinals.

The Cardinals have benefited from that trade by winning an N.L. Championship in 04 , their division in 06 and of course , a World Championship in 07.

The Braves have one division winner to show for that particularly brutal trade and Wainwright is a stalwart in the Cardinals rotation. And where is J.D. Drew ? he just got fitted for a ring in Boston.

Yea , that was one hell of a trade.

By Shaun

January 15, 2008 12:14 PM | Link to this

Get ‘em on, get ‘em over, get ‘em in, problem is you must use up an out to sacrifice a runner and it’s just not worth it in many cases because that brings you an out closer to ending the inning. Also, do sacrifices have any relation to run scoring, because we know OBP does?

And of course you are right about getting more runners in scoring position leading to more runs. That’s why OBP and SLG are great measures of offensive production—both for individuals and teams. The teams with the highest OBP, SLG, OPS, etc. are the teams that score the most—you can look at OPS and make a pretty good guess which teams are the best at scoring runs. This is not true of sacrifice hits. The leaders in sac hits are sort of all over the place in the runs scored rankings.

By Random

January 15, 2008 12:18 PM | Link to this

DOB—

Is that your Zen email address — dobrien at AJC dot OM MANI PASHTE HUM?

By Coach (Lets Go Braves in 2008)

January 15, 2008 12:21 PM | Link to this

Mike , Randy Johnson was wild as hell at one point in his career. Side armers tend to have that problem. They do get a lot more movement on ball , Peter Moylan throws side arm and his ball almost has a corkscrew movement to it.

By AdirondackDave

January 15, 2008 12:25 PM | Link to this

I haven’t read all the comments in the last day or so but I haven’t seen anybody point out that the #8 hitter is an important position for the offense and not necessarily a good place to hide the club’s worst hitter.

At a minimum #8 needs to provide a good OBP to give the pitcher a chance to sacrifice and keep the inning alive or at least clear the #9 slot so the next inning starts with the head of the order.

The ‘08 Braves lineup is now shaping up without a “worst hitter” with the acquisition of Kotsay and not a lot of teams in the NL will be able to say that. Still, I think the OBP produced by #8 will be important to the teams success.

By Rick Roberts

January 15, 2008 12:28 PM | Link to this

Lineup: Kotsay (adds excitement), Diaz (great contact hitter), Chipper, Tex, Franceour (needs to see fastballs), McCann, Escobar (he can hit anywhere), KJ (sets table for sacrifice by pitcher), pitcher.

BN: Infante, Thorman, J.Anderson, Javy, and ?.

SP: Smoltz, Hudson, Glavine, Hampton, James BP: Soriano, Ohman, Moylan, Bennett, Yates, Carlyle, Boyer (no options)

Watch for: Brandon Jones, Prado, Sammons, Lillibridge, Acosta, Ring, Morton, Jurgens, Reyes, Aybar, and J. Schaefer.

Candidates for trade: B. Pena, Thorman, James, Aybar, Prado, and Boyer.

Injured: Gonzalez to return in June? Hampton may start on DL.

Minor Leaguers: Very deep at all positions although most are two years away—I think we have the best depth in prospects ever.

So, barring injuries and trades, this sets up to be a season with potential to go all the way. The NL is weaker than the AL, so the Braves could make it to the Series.

By Anders

January 15, 2008 12:30 PM | Link to this

New Braves Minor league motto:

Richmond = Not so good. Gwinnett = Awesome!!

By DAP

January 15, 2008 12:30 PM | Link to this

dayn perry’s passing comment that our bullpen was shaky is probably because he noticed we got rid of a bunch of bullpen pieces, including devine, asciano, wickman, villareal, paronto, and i might be missing a few. the thing is, only two of these guys played a big role for atlanta in 2007, wickman, and villareal, and neither one performed great. wick turned into a problem child, and villareal seemed to let every single inherited runner score. plus he was gonna cost quite a bit of $$.

what perry didnt notice was the guys that are staying are all of our best guys, soriano, moylan, yates(yes, yates), plus some great new guys. i could definitely see how a passing glance would dub our bullpen shaky, but its not reality.

By Bubdylan

January 15, 2008 12:34 PM | Link to this

DOB, Love the McMurtry. Really enjoy your blog. Lookin’ forward to ‘08, but… you remember Luke Skywalker’s reaction to Vader’s “I’m-Your-Daddy?” That’s me if the Mets get Johan. Can you comfort me?

By Shaun

January 15, 2008 12:34 PM | Link to this

Coach (Lets Go Braves in 2008), Braves put themselves in a great position to have a shot to win the 2004 World Series with that trade. Without making that trade, it’s hard to imagine the Braves finishing in first place or maybe even higher than third. Sure those other guys have helped other teams a lot but is there any guarantee the Braves would have improved that much, to have made it worth not making the trade?

If the Braves had not made the Drew trade then maybe they win a World Series since 2005. But odds are they wouldn’t be all that much better off and they almost certainly would not have won anything in 2004.

You remind me of those people who say that Nostradamus predicted Hitler and WWII and this and that but of course they never tell us what he predicted for 2010 or 2030. It’s quite easy to “predict” the past.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves in 2008)

January 15, 2008 12:37 PM | Link to this

O’Brien , sorry about that comment. The Wainwright/Marquis trade is the one that tends to make me want to bite tires , chase parked cars and howl at the moon.

I knew when it went down , Schuerholz had vastly overpaid for J.D. Drew. Two first round starting pitchers , it just makes me sick to think about it.

By Shaun

January 15, 2008 12:39 PM | Link to this

AdirondackDave, good point. Stringing together base runners is certainly an important part of a great offensive club. If the Braves (or any team) want to be a great offensive club, they certainly need solid on-base guys throughout the lineup.

By David O'Brien

January 15, 2008 12:39 PM | Link to this

The Cardinals have benefited from that trade by winning an N.L. Championship in 04 , their division in 06 and of course , a World Championship in 07.Coach

Wainwright didn’t pitch for St. Louis in 2004. Not one inning. In 2005, he pitched two innings for St. Louis (three runs, 13.50 ERA).

He had a helluva 2006 season for the World Series champions, and played a crucial role after moving to closer down the stretch.

The Rockies won pennant and the Red Sox won the World Series in ‘07 (not St. Louis), while Wainwright was 14-12 for a Cardinals team that went 78-84 and finished third in the NL Central.

Other than that…

Coach, good thing you’re not pulling the strings, on trades, because you’d never make a deal. You’ve got to have the stomach for trading away prospects sometimes.

As a GM, you can’t worry about Monday morning quarterbacks who sit back and judge with benefit of hindsight. it’s a win-now league, my man. Win now. Not five-year plans. Especially in major markets with expectations and without the budgets to buy key free agents.

If the Braves had won the pennant that year, you and others wouldn’t have anything to complain about.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves in 2008)

January 15, 2008 12:45 PM | Link to this

Shaun , bite me , OK . I knew immediately. The moment I heard about it. My gut screamed , MISTAKE !

Why don’t you ask Schuerholz if he would make that trade knowing what he knows today.

By Random

January 15, 2008 12:46 PM | Link to this

Coach: The Cardinals have benefited from that trade by winning an N.L. Championship in 04 , their division in 06 and of course , a World Championship in 07.

Where — on Planet Claire?

By Beisbol

January 15, 2008 12:47 PM | Link to this

A way to test this is to look at the leader boards. If OBP is dynamic the same players and teams should not rank in the same order from year-to-year. Without doing an in-depth, scientific study, it does seem like the same players and teams are reasonably consistent in their OBP rankings from year-to-year which would mean maybe OBP is not all that dynamic (unless there are some unusual circumstances).

The problem with that is that alot of the leaderboards are littered with superstar disciplined hitters that are feared and thus draw lots of walks and hit for high averages. For those guys, OBP tends to be more static.

For complimentary pieces like Edgar and Kotsay, OBP is much more dynamic dependent upon how they are pitched because of who and how many people are on base in front of them and how feared the hitters behind them are.

I know ballpark can affect OBP, and intentional walks (I don’t think he would have posted a .500 OBP in a season if managers were wise enough to realize that they were probably hurting themselves more by walking Bonds).

Did those teams really hurt themselves by walking Bonds so much? Are you sure of that? Seems like most of his damage was being done with the bat, not by walking to first. By walking Bonds so much, they kept his RBI totals down to his normal pre-roids levels for the most part and he also only scored about as many runs as he did before he became a roids freak who had to be walked all the time. If they didn’t walk him, he probably would have scored 150 runs and drove in 200 because of all the homers he was hitting.

If anything, the intentional walks were probably the least harmful method of dealing with Barroid.

It was the pitching around him without intentionally walking him that probably hurt opposing pitchers the most. If you give him so many crappy pitches that he knows are junk, it makes it that much easier to have his eyes light up when you finally give him something good to hit. If anything, all you are doing is helping a man with crazy pitch recognition skills in the first place, just have a better ability to use those pitch recognition skills because you give him one pitch in 10 that he knows he can drive. You can confuse him more by pitching aggressively to him. Kinda like McBride did a few times.

If you are gonna walk him, just walk him, don’t pitch around him. Not much harm he can do from first base when he can no longer run and the hitters behind him are not good enough to score him.

By Anders

January 15, 2008 12:50 PM | Link to this

DOB

Robert (CIB): Two terrible starts and one bad/mediocre one. That was Glavine’s “bad down the stretch.” His last three starts of the season.

Do you know how weak this argument sounds? He was the supposed ace veteran HOF’er of the staff!!! He’s supposed to stop losing streaks. He got progressively worse as the stakes rose through the end of the pennant stretch. He couldn’t get two outs in the last game with everything on the line!! You mention it like it’s a throw away game at Florida in May. If it was Pedro who did this instead you would throw it in my face every chance you got. His ERA went up almost half a run in September alone - hard to do by a 200 inning guy. Glavine’s whole career as a Met was bad/mediocre.

By DAP

January 15, 2008 12:53 PM | Link to this

Shaun yeah, i think KJ would be good in leadoff, because the K’s dont matter as much there as long as his OBP is good. i just dont think #2 is good for him. id bat either kotsay or escobar 2nd.

By Shaun

January 15, 2008 12:54 PM | Link to this

Two first round starting pitchers , it just makes me sick to think about it.

That’s even more reason to make a trade that could turn out to be a risk—there’s a decent shot that young pitchers are going to get hurt and make nothing of themselves at the major league level; they are less of a sure thing than any other young player at any position perhaps in all sports.

By Random

January 15, 2008 12:55 PM | Link to this

In the 83-84 offseason, Twins 3B John Castino had a herniated disk removed from his lower back.

After missing the first month of 84, he returned as starting 3B on 29 Apr.

He got off to a torrid start, .444/.531/.481 after eight games (27 ABs).

In the eighth game he busted another disk and never played again.

By Lew

January 15, 2008 1:04 PM | Link to this

Anders-I won’t debate Glavine’s virtues or lack thereof, but I do have some serious questions for you. Given that the Mets actually pick up Santana, what do you seriously foresee for the team this year and in the future? I don’t see all that $$$$$ many keep talking about, either. If it were there, Omar would have actually done SOMETHING by now.

Now MetroDude thinks it’s strictly because I don’t like the Mets and am a Braves’ Homer, but here’s my take on the Mets-with and without Santana.

1. They have a very old team. Moises is 42 and ElDuque is 43. Others are in their late 30’s. If you get Santana, you will be forced to give up your top four or five farm hands and you do not have the strongest Minor League system, either.

2.They have an extremely weak rotation. Pedro has only pitched (by season’s start) 84 innings in 22 months and has chronic foot and shoulder problems. He has had major arm surgery and has stated he will not rehab if injured again. He is in the twilight of his career. ElDuque is an injury waiting to happen-yet again. Pelfrey is, at best, unproven. Maine is your only reliable starter and even with Santana, this does not give you a good rotation. You have zero rotational depth and will likely need it.

3.They have an extremely weak bullpen. It was pretty bad last year from June 1 on to the end of the season. The only addition I’m aware of is Duaner Sanche’z return- who has not pitched in 20 months or so, either and returns from an entire season’s injury. Billy Wagner is dissatisfied at best and has been quite vocal about it. I see clubhouse dissension in your future-like the end of last season.

1. They have an extremely weak bench. What do they do when DelGado goes down? He missed 23 games last year and had his worst season of his entire career. He dropped pretty radically in all offensive departments. You have NO backup on your roster. Who replaces Moises Alou who is now 42 with chronic leg problems and missed virtually half a year last season? You do, however, have four second basemen on your active roster. Given Castillo’s leg problems and Gotay’s injuries, this may be a good thing.

5.You lost your All Star catcher and replaced him with a guy who hit .235. You lost your right fielder and replaced him with a player who has little success behind him.

1. You have no one available in the minors for any position if you get Santana. Would not his acquistion cripple the old Mets for years to come by giving up all almost ML ready talent? Isn’t that somewhat like the Rangers thinking ARod would lead them to the promised land? How did THAT one work.

Anyway, Dude, that’s the way I see things for the Mets. What are your thoughts? I’m interested in your point of view. Not saying they will come in fourth or fifth in the division, but I see lots more question marks with them than with the Marlins or Nats-much less the Phillies and Braves. Not talking smack, either. This is how I really see it.

By TAMPA MIKE

January 15, 2008 1:04 PM | Link to this

KOTSAY is a pure crap. He’s a washed up has been with a BAD BACK. Does anyone think he can play 150 games? NO CHANCE. Why trade for Josh Anderson & Mark Kotsay? We gave up ANOTHER 1st rd selection for a below avg CF with a bad back. This will make the MCBRIDE for Ledezma trade look great. Where is Ledezma now? Of that’s right we waived him and he’s no longer braves property. Watch Devine will be closing/setting up for OAK by mid season and by mid season Kotsay will be on the DL with a bad back. HORRIBLE TRADE

By Mike

January 15, 2008 1:05 PM | Link to this

Ok, Johnson was wild at one time. But once he got things figured out, he controlled the game.

My point is that it doesn’t take 100 mph and an overhanded pitcher to be dominant. It takes location, movement, stamina, one heck of mental makeup, and every once in a while, a little luck.

By AdirondackDave

January 15, 2008 1:10 PM | Link to this

Anybody watching Selig and Fehr at the Hearings?

By David O'Brien

January 15, 2008 1:10 PM | Link to this

Random, for what it’s worth, Kotsay only had the back equivalent of arthroscopic surgery, through a small incision, and only had part of a herniated disk shaved down or removed.

With advances in surgical procedures, i’m guessing this is a far cry from what Castino had in 1983. He had a disk removed, and I’ll bet they that to cut him open to do it.

By nOLIE

January 15, 2008 1:12 PM | Link to this

It’s not really the number of plate appearances you get with men on base. It is the number of plate appearances you get with men in scoring position and how well you execute with men in scoring position that separates the good offensive teams from the bad offensive teams. Who cares about getting the man on if he never gets into scoring position. And who cares how often the man gets himself into scoring position if the other men are not good enough to score him.* Get Em On*

LOL. well of course someone with that screenname would think so, but thats so 30 years ago. the teams with the highest OBPs year after year are the teams in the top of the runs scored charts. there is a very high correlation. and if it was only about hitting with RISP and not about any other hitting then there never would be any RISP cause nobody would get om. Computer simulations also show that teams with high OBP scored scads of runs . Both are important not just hitting with men on. Teams with low OBP can hit fairly well with RISP but score fewer runs over a season because they have fewer opportunities to drive in runs. The name of the modern game of baseball is to make the fewest outs in comparison to the most runners. Outs(OBP) rule. The more opportunities to score…the more scoring for the most part.

By TennesseePaul

January 15, 2008 1:12 PM | Link to this

Rockies won the World Series in ‘07

Bit of a typo or hopefull revisionist writing… But not as bad as saying Devine blew his chance in 2007. He did well in 2007 when Cox let him play. He blew his chance in earlier years.

By David O'Brien

January 15, 2008 1:13 PM | Link to this

Anders, do you have any idea how obsessive you sound on this one particular subject? You and TG are sounding very similar to Robert and BC.

Do the veins in your forehead throb when you type Glavine’s name? Just wondering. Peace, my man.

By DAP

January 15, 2008 1:13 PM | Link to this

coach The Cardinals have benefited from that trade by winning an N.L. Championship in 04

just so you know, wainwright didnt play for the cards in ‘04, just like he wouldnt have played for the braves. JD Drew got us to the playoffs, where wainwright wouldnt have gotten us. wainwirght only pitched 2 innings in ‘05 too.

i understand the thinking of not giving up later for right now, but its not always good to give up right now for later either. its not like wainwirght single handedly gave to card a division title in 06 by pitching 75 innings. he only pitched 9 innings in 9 games in the post season (although he pitched very well) so he didnt single handedly give them the world championship either. and in ‘07, he didnt win the card anything, though he pitched well.

all im saying is that JD Drew was the difference maker in ‘04, wainwright has never been the difference maker in st louis.

By TennesseePaul

January 15, 2008 1:14 PM | Link to this

Payne: I don’t know about Kotsay batting second. His career OBP is .337, just slightly above his leagues’ averages. He wouldn’t be an awful number two hitter at all but I’m thinking his OBP will be around his career average, at best.

Assuming Kotsay is healthy, I think we could see more than that from him. Consider again that he would be hitting in front of Chipper and Teixeira if in the #2 spot. Edgar Renteria came into town after posting a .335 OBP. Edgar’s K/BB ratio for his career was 1.58 before he came to Atlanta. He always made good contact. He moved in front of Chipper and posted a .361 OBP and maintained his K/BB ratio. Kotsay has a career OBP in the 2 hole of .344, an overall career OBP of .337 (this includes several unhealthy seasons, without last season he has a career .340 OBP). His career K/BB ratio is 1.49 (a career 1.24 in the 2 hole) and it has steadily improved throughout his career reducing it from 1.75, even during the injury years. Since 2004 he’s put up 1.27, 1.28, 1.25, and 1.05 K/BB ratios. That’s pretty good on his knowledge of the zone and what he can do. Again, if he’s healthy, he’d be an asset in the #2 spot.
When I looked this up I found Kotsay had his career year as a leadoff hitter. That year he put up .311/.366/.459 with a 1.17 K/BB ratio in the leadoff spot. So perhaps, if he’s healthy, he’d take the 1 spot with Yunel hitting second. I’d still rather see KJ 7th. KJ’s power and OBP skills behind McCann and Francoeur make the team much stronger I think.

Besides, Kotsay’s career at the bottom of the order (batting 6-8): .241/.308/.328 with a 1.19 K/BB.

I’d rather have a runner on first with no outs than a runner on second with one out.
Assuming Yunel leads off, gets on, you have a guy at first with no outs. Assuming a low contact guy that struggles in the two hole is next you’ll end up with 1 out and a runner on first. Put a good contact guy in the 2 hole that doesn’t K much and you are more likely to end up with a guy on second. Surely you agree a runner on 2nd and 1 out is better than a runner on 1st and 1 out. KJ’s struggle is his K rate. When he makes his out, he’s more likely to not move the runner. Besides, Yunel’s OBP ability appeared to be better than KJ’s. Could be a sample size issue with both of them though. I don’t think it’d be bad to have either in the lead off role. But I think it would be bad to have KJ 2nd a career 2.09 K/BB ratio hitting second.
And one more time for good measure, if Kostay is healthy the team would find itself in the nice spot of having 3 potential leadoff guys and 2 guys that would be good in the 2 hole and one guy that makes the line up real deep if placed in the 7th spot. As for assets at the top of the order I see it this way, Yunel gets on base at a higher rate (.400 OBP in the leadoff spot) and has exceptional base running skills. KJ gets on base fairly well too (.374 OBP in the leadoff spot) and offers some pop to go along with a high number of pitches seen. Kotsay offers veteran presence and experience. Ha! But, in his peak years in the leadoff spot he was solid. Perhaps in this line up a healthy Kotsay would do well in the leadoff spot. This is pretty much the order I’d put them in as far as leadoff options.

By Mike

January 15, 2008 1:15 PM | Link to this

I agree with you again Coach, I hated the Drew trade at the time, knowing they gave up a lot. Sometimes you just have to trade for an immediate need though. No way around it.

By David O'Brien

January 15, 2008 1:20 PM | Link to this

Glavine�s whole career as a Met was bad/mediocre.Anders

Ah, yes. That certainly strengthens your credibility.

2005: 13 wins, 3.53 ERA, 211-1/3 innings.

2006: 15 wins, 3.82 ERA, 198 innings.

2007: 13 wins, 4.45 ERA, 200-1/3 innings.

Postseason: three starts, 2-1, 1.59 ERA.

Good point, Anders. Bad/mediocre, indeed.

By Shaun

January 15, 2008 1:22 PM | Link to this

Beisbol, isn’t being a good, disciplined hitter part of being a good on-base guy? What you’re saying is kind of like saying “for good hitters, being a good hitter is static.”

Concerning someone like Renteria, especially, why did he have bad OBP years for him while hitting in not good but great lineups—the ‘04 Cardinals and the ‘05 Red Sox?

Regarding walking Bonds or any hitter, I think in most situations teams would have been better off pitching to him. In 2002, ordinary hitters had good RBI years hitting behind Bonds—Reggie Sanders drove in 85 runs in spite of a OPS barely above league average and Benito Santiago drove in 74 runs with an OPS barely above league average.

There is no way Bonds would have hit a homerun even a majority of those plate appearances in which he was intentionally walked. He posted an OBP of .360 if we take away his walks, which is a far cry from .582. Not saying if they pitched to him in many cases he would have only posted a .360 OBP, nor am I saying that they should have pitched to him every single time he came up; but they should have pitched to him a lot more than they did because giving away a baserunner without any chance of getting an out likely costs Giants’ opponents more runs than necessary.

By TennesseePaul

January 15, 2008 1:26 PM | Link to this

Ouch. Doesn’t look good for the Astros. Tejada is in the lime-light. Congress’ questions appear to be gearing up for something serious against him and possibly clearing Palmerio’s name. Talk about bagage. I’d much rather have a back injured CF than all that crap.

By Shaun

January 15, 2008 1:31 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul, Kotsay certainly wouldn’t be an awful hitter at the top of any order, assuming he’s healthy (if we even need to say that anymore). I’d just like to see what he can do because he’s a little bit past his prime at this point and he’s had a couple of down years before they put him at the top over KJ or Yunel. But I don’t want folks to think I’m trying to down Kotsay or I’m against the trade. Kotsay will most likely be a fine addition and one of the better number eight hitters around, if he does hit that low. Plus we all know what I think about the “importance” of batting order.

By AdirondackDave

January 15, 2008 1:35 PM | Link to this

TennPaul —- Couldn’t agree with you more!

By TennesseePaul

January 15, 2008 1:42 PM | Link to this

With advances in surgicaly procedures…

I’d agree with this. The surgery referenced was 25 years ago. Pretty much predates the internet, right at the beginning of the CD, prior to the DVD, well in advance of a usable mobile phone. And most importantly, prior to the mapping of the human genome, the advancements in transplant surgery (able to transplant hands and faces now) to go along with the latest marvels: stem cells from skin cells and the ability to re-grow organs around the protein skeleton of a previous organ.

None of that specifically concerns back surgery, but you gotta think with all those advancments surely back surgery has come along as well in the past 25 years.

By TennesseePaul

January 15, 2008 1:46 PM | Link to this

Payne: if we even need to say that anymore

Now, assuming Kotsay is healthy, I’ll agree we may not need to say this any more. But a healthy Kotsay makes this much clearer and less confussing. And a healthy Kotsay is what we want. So if Kotsay is healthy, then it’s all just sh!ts and giggles.

By Beisbol

January 15, 2008 1:47 PM | Link to this

Concerning someone like Renteria, especially, why did he have bad OBP years for him while hitting in not good but great lineups—the ‘04 Cardinals and the ‘05 Red Sox?

I don’t know the answer. So when all else fails, I will do like Shaun: Luck. Chance. Random Variance.

By OrlandoFan

January 15, 2008 2:03 PM | Link to this

I was trying to catch up with the blog to make a comment about the new lineup, but I see Rick Roberts beat me to my primary point. I like the idea of Diaz hitting second, because I think he is a patient, consistent hitter who could move the leadoff man along. I’ve thought that even before Kotsay was acquired. He just seems to have that polish. If he fails, then you have options. So I go with Yunel/KJ (rotating based on pitcher), Diaz, Chipper, Tex, Franceour, McCann, Kotsay, Yunel/KJ. Also, if you think about Kotsay…if he can hit .260, he could produce a good many runs because of the guys who will be on ahead of him. Doesn’t require the HR to produce runs.

By David O'Brien

January 15, 2008 2:03 PM | Link to this

Bubdylan, he’d only pitch once every five days if they get him. How’s that for comfort? But seriously, he wouldn’t solve all their problems, for sure….

Big Tuesday coming up next week on the music front: Not only is the Drive-By Truckers’ excellent new CD coming out, but so are new ones by excellent Georgia bands the Whigs and the Selmanaires. Both bands’ last CDs were outstanding.

By Shaun

January 15, 2008 2:07 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul, agreed. A healthy Kotsay is a solid offensive centerfielder. Probably not quite as good at this point as Kotsay at his best, and not an All-Star or anything, but a)that’s not necessary and b)he’ll still be solid.

Beisbol, well I don’t know the answer to why Renteria had unusually low on-base years with great offensive clubs but it probably tells us that who a guy hits around may not have much of an impact on his OBP, as you asserted earlier.

By EM

January 15, 2008 2:15 PM | Link to this

Ha…The Braves tried to trade James to KC knowing his shoulder was torn.
Good piece here:

http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/01/15/did-braves-try-to-fleece-royals-with-a-damaged-chuck-james/

By Git 'em on, git 'em over, git 'em in

January 15, 2008 2:15 PM | Link to this

LOL. well of course someone with that screenname would think so, but thats so 30 years ago. the teams with the highest OBPs year after year are the teams in the top of the runs scored charts. there is a very high correlation. and if it was only about hitting with RISP and not about any other hitting then there never would be any RISP cause nobody would get om. Computer simulations also show that teams with high OBP scored scads of runs . Both are important not just hitting with men on. Teams with low OBP can hit fairly well with RISP but score fewer runs over a season because they have fewer opportunities to drive in runs. The name of the modern game of baseball is to make the fewest outs in comparison to the most runners. Outs(OBP) rule. The more opportunities to score…the more scoring for the most part.

The Braves had a .339 OBP in 2007. The Dodgers had a .337 OBP.

The Braves scored 810 runs. The Dodgers scored 735 runs.

Yeah, I see the correlation between OBP and runs scored in that 75 run discrepancy.

The Braves hit 96 solo homers. The Dodgers hit 79 solo homers. That’s a 17 run difference that has nothing to do with OBP.

The Dodgers had 1752 plate appearances with RISP. The Braves had 1751 plate appearances with RISP.

The Dodgers hit .278, .359, .395 with RISP. The Braves hit .291, .379, .468 with RISP.

The Braves scored 634 runs with RISP. The Dodgers scored 578 runs with RISP.

That’s a 56 run difference between the Braves and Dodgers in about the same number of plate appearances due to better execution by the Braves with RISP.

Add the 17 run difference due to solo homers to the 56 run difference with RISP and you see why the Braves scored 75 runs more than the Dodgers last season although they had there was only a 2 point difference in their overall OBP for the season.

Git ‘em on. Git ‘em over. Git ‘em in.

Meet the new stats, same as the old stats. Still enslaving minds with stats since 1876.

By playitagaindave

January 15, 2008 2:15 PM | Link to this

Hey DOB, surely the Braves management has enough sense to bat Kotsay lower.IF they get him at near his peak he is still not good enough OBP to bat higher than 8th on this club.

By TennesseePaul

January 15, 2008 2:22 PM | Link to this

[Diaz] just seems to have that polish.

The term “polish” doesn’t really marry well with Diaz.

By TennesseePaul

January 15, 2008 2:32 PM | Link to this

Assuming Kotsay is healthy…

surely the Braves management has enough sense to bat Kotsay lower

Kotsay’s career at the bottom of the order (batting 6-8): .241/.308/.328 with a 1.19 K/BB

Kotsay’s career at the top of the order (batting 1-3): .284/.340/.421 1.37 K/BB

By Random

January 15, 2008 2:35 PM | Link to this

**DOB—

I’ll admit that you make excellent points. Grudgingly admit.

All I know is that Castino gave me one of the most exciting weeks in my one year of Rotisserie ball, and then his back exploded. (And then the Indians traded Sutcliffe to the Cubs, for whom he won the Cy Young, but not for me… not for me (sob).)

By Fleeced Facts

January 15, 2008 2:36 PM | Link to this

Why do people link things to MLB Fleece Factor and MLB Trade Rumors as if they are so revealing when they usually contain nothing more than what DOB reported here a week ago and sometimes a few months ago? That Chuck James thing was already reported by DOB over a month ago during the winter meetings. What is contained in the blog lead was just DOB’s follow up update upon speaking to Chuck.

I never understand blogs that (1) only report what others have already reported; and (2) just tear real writers to shreds by mocking what real writers write (see firejoemorgan.com and the cheap imitators).

If you don’t have insider info, don’t pretend you do. If you have thoughts, information, or analysis of your own, please share it. If you don’t, just don’t have your own blog. Mocking real journalists doesn’t take much talent. If your only real talent is mocking others, well, your blog won’t last forever. The novelty will eventually wear off and people are gonna want more from you eventually. It’s much harder to do what real journalists do under deadline than to sit around in momma’s basement acting like the court jester.

Is the Fleece Factor named that because it analyzes trades where teams fleeced other teams or is it ironically called that because the bloggers over there fleece real thoughts and info from real journalists and pretend it to be their own?

Why not change the blog name from Fleece Factor to Fleeced Facts?

By Shaun

January 15, 2008 2:39 PM | Link to this

Git ‘em on, git ‘em over, git ‘em in,

The Dodgers had one of the worst SLG in the league at .406 and the Braves had one of the best at .435. That’s a 29-point difference which goes a long way toward explaining the run-scoring discrepancy between the two teams.

Sorry, the game was different in 1876. 40 homers in the entire league! League average OBP: .277. SLG: .321. The best fielding team made 282 errors, 145 more than the Marlins, the worst fielding NL team of 2007.

By Daybed Wagmoe

January 15, 2008 2:46 PM | Link to this

Glavine’s career as a Met (2003-2007):

In 164 games, he went 61-56 with a 3.97 ERA. 4 complete games, 3 shutouts. 1005.1 IP.

That record is after winning only 20 games in his first two seasons with NY.

By TennesseePaul

January 15, 2008 2:50 PM | Link to this

Sorry, the game was different in 1876. 40 homers in the entire league! League average OBP: .277. SLG: .321. The best fielding team made 282 errors, 145 more than the Marlins, the worst fielding NL team of 2007.

They used rocks as bases and had no gloves. The bats were 2 by 4’s. They wore no cups or arm and leg shields. The mound was considerably closer. The ball was completely different. They were nuts back then.

By N8

January 15, 2008 3:01 PM | Link to this

ColoradoBravesFan

That’s how my father in law views it as well. He actually has season tickets to the SkySox games. I haven’t been to a Braves game at Coors since 1998 (The Big Cat’s return to Colorado).

Many things have determined this. The biggest reason is the unbalanced schedule. The Braves only make one trip to Denver every year, and for most of the past few years, it has been early in the Spring. Since I haven’t been able to convince my wife to pull the kids out of school for a week in April or May to go see Braves games, we haven’t done so.

The other reasons are quite obvious. The price for one, and the intimacy of a minor league game. My father in law’s seets are 3 rows back in between the dugout and the net behind home plate (actually kind of scary being 2 feet from where the net ends with little kids with). But we end up being about 15 feet away from the on-deck circle.

I actually haven’t missed going to the big-league games. For each of my boys’ last birthday’s, my father in law has paid whatever the “donation” fee is, to let them go down and throw out the first pitch, which of course they both loved. Can’t do that at Coors Field.

Overall, the minor league experience is a fantastic one. If you’re lucky enough to catch a big-leaguer on rehab, all the better. Two years ago, Brett Tomko pitched a game for Tacoma. I saw He Sop Choi when he was supposed to be “the next big thing”.

If I lived in a town with minor league baseball, I’d be a season ticket holder in a heartbeat.

But I agree with you. If I lived in a town (or area) that had both within driving distance, the MLB games would be much more of a special event. Too much money to get season tickets for the whole fam.

By nOLIE

January 15, 2008 3:05 PM | Link to this

Yeah, I see the correlation between OBP and runs scored in that 75 run discrepancy.Get Em ON

yeah no stat is perfect and you can cherry pick whatever instances that you want to, but the 4 teams with the highest OBP are the 4 teams with the most runs scored. only a stats luddite wouldn’t think thats not a high correlation. and 2007 is just another year when that same relationship held true for the most part. certainly much higher than stolen bases, home runs or yukyuk sacrifices. get em over and watch them die on base cause you gave up another needless out. there is a reason that they say”if they’re gonna give you an out, take it!” A study done 40 plus years ago using several seasons worth of real baseball games showed that giving up an out to get a player to second who is on first with no outs actually resulted in fewer runs scored than if the sacrifice wasn’t made.and that was when players were a lot more accomplished at small ball than the modern ones are. So you can have your GTOGTOGTI it wasn’t even an effective strategy back then. I love the smell of nostalgia in the morning…

By DAP

January 15, 2008 3:07 PM | Link to this

10Paul you just really creeped me out with your description of medical advances. shiver

OrlandoFan Diaz patient? hes consistant, but id label him a free swinger. he doesnt walk or stikeout much.

git ‘em in very informative post. thank you.

Shaun now its slugging% that dictates how many runs teams score? before git ‘em’s post it was OBP. you are again changing the premise of your argument so you dont sound wrong. add that and your stance that batting order doesnt matter (even though every team in the majors orders their lineup to maximize certain players strengths) to things that drive me crazy about you.

but i still love ya, blog bro’. in a “ive never met you” kind of blog way.

By nOLIE

January 15, 2008 3:14 PM | Link to this

They used rocks as bases and had no gloves. The bats were 2 by 4’s. They wore no cups or arm and leg shields. The mound was considerably closer. The ball was completely different. They were nuts back thenTP

anybody ever see the movie The Great Northfield Minnesota Raid with Cliff Robertson and Bobby Duvall? It has about a 5 minute set of a baseball game that I understand was researched pretty thoroughly. a fun scene IMO.

By DollyMadison

January 15, 2008 3:15 PM | Link to this

Dale Murphy is as squeaky clean as Mother Teresa, but I dont think be belongs in the HOF. Murph was an awesome player and I was in total awe of his skills. I still miss watching him play because he played with a passion unlike anything Ive ever seen in organized baseball. In fact, of all my years of watching major league baseball, I saw only one other player who played as passionately as Murphy. That player is Ken Griffey Junior. Murph wants desparately to get into the HOF, but he is going about it the wrong way. Murph is campaingning to get into the HOF, but in order for him to get there Murph MUST admit that he took steriods and stop pretending like he is Gods gift to humanity.

By DonCoburleone

January 15, 2008 3:15 PM | Link to this

Must say I was definately a fan of bringing in Mark Kotsay, but for what we gave up? Not so much… This article over at TalkingChop basically sums up my feelings on the trade… Of course this was posted yesterday, so they didn’t know about Richmond being included in the deal yet (that would have made them even more upset). Anyway, cliff notes version is basically them complaining about the supposedly “flush with cash” Braves organization who was supposedly increasing payroll by “many millions”.

By Shaun

January 15, 2008 3:22 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul, Kotsay is a career .267/.341/.369 hitter in the 6th spot. And batting 9th he’s at .397/.453/.534 in the 9th spot. He’s only at .280/.323/.401 as a number three hitter. With all this in mind, I’m not sure we can make any assumptions about Kotsay’s abilities or comfort level while hitting in certain spots in the order.

By DonCoburleone

January 15, 2008 3:27 PM | Link to this

“I never understand blogs that (1) only report what others have already reported; and (2) just tear real writers to shreds by mocking what real writers write (see firejoemorgan.com and the cheap imitators).”

It’s because sites like FJM and MLBTR actually give objective opinions based on things like facts and statistics instead of opinions based on personal interactions with players or a “gut feeling” a writer may have… There have been many breakthroughs in statistical analysis in baseball over the last 20 years or so. And yet most, and I do mean MOST sportswriters today reject new age sabremetrics and view it as something only used by “stat nerds” and people who just sit in front of a computer all day and never watch an actual game. Well that is simply BS, why in the world do you think the father of modern statistical analysis (Bill James) works for the premier team in baseball (Red Sox) right now?

Coincidence? I think not…

By Shaun

January 15, 2008 3:32 PM | Link to this

DAP, no one thing dictates how many runs a team scores; and I don’t remember saying any such thing. OBP is a huge factor, as is SLG; and if you think about it, even without doing any in-depth statistical or scientific research, this is common sense. Maximizing baserunners and accruing bases, and minimizing outs leads to more scoring is self-evident.

Also, I never said batting order does not matter. I do think it doesn’t matter as much as some think but I never said it doesn’t matter. If I did, please show me.

This is the kind of stuff that drives me crazy about certain people who apparently dislike the things I write; they seem to twist my words to try to tear down what they think is my argument, when that wasn’t the argument I was making in the first place.

By Doubleday Dismay With Today

January 15, 2008 3:32 PM | Link to this

They used rocks as bases and had no gloves. The bats were 2 by 4’s. They wore no cups or arm and leg shields. The mound was considerably closer. The ball was completely different. They were nuts back then.

It’s when men were men. Herniated disks were cured with a bottle of whiskey. Men were hairy. They didn’t shave their chest like Alex Rodriguez. They caught the ball with their teeth. Fans did not cry because a one inning minor league specialist who can’t throw strikes and gives up grand slams was traded. They expected their pitchers to toss 9 or none at all. What people sadly think of as scrappy today (eckstein, counsell), were looked upon as little women. Players slept with women, dames, and broads, unlike Derek Jeter who sleeps with college girls with reckless abandon according to the NY Post.

By EM

January 15, 2008 3:37 PM | Link to this

sorry for posting a link before, fleeced facts. but the article from fleece factor does say that the rumor is from a month and a half ago. and it gives DOB all the credit. not sure what the beef is.

it’s just that that trade rumor from December never really made sense to me until i read from DOB that James has a tear in his rotator cuff.

By Daybed Wagmoe

January 15, 2008 3:41 PM | Link to this

DonC — that article is by the same guy who put up the inaccurate list of Braves’ 2008 salaries back on Dec. 20th. It looks like he had some wrong information about the Braves financial figures for 2008.

I’ll paraphrase what he says in the 3rd paragraph — a bunch of message board posters and bloggers say that a combo of Josh Anderson and Gregor Blanco would be able to take care of CF; why have the Braves made this deal??

Who cares what a bunch of internet fans say about which trades should be made? Why should Frank Wren and co. listen to us on which trades we think need to be made?

By EM

January 15, 2008 3:41 PM | Link to this

Well said DonCoburleone. There are some writers (like DOB) who embrace the information age and use it as a tool. there are others who see blogs as a threat to their once mighty power in baseball media. i say, let people blog what they want to blog. if the writing stinks, no one will read it. personally, i love rumors and MLBTR, fleece factor, rotoworld, centralize them so that’s pretty cool. no?

By TennesseePaul

January 15, 2008 3:42 PM | Link to this

Payne: Several things about that… sample size first of all. Secondly, the ninth spot isn’t an option on a Bobby Cox team. And lastly, the post was an aggregate of an “area” of the batting order, not a particular spot. I don’t think Kotsay will be hitting 6th. Possibly on the random day Chipper and Teixeira are out but I’d venture a strong guess that Chipper, Teixeira, McCann and Francoeur will man the 3,4,5 and 6 spots. That leaves the 1 and 2 spots and 7 and 8 spots in question.

Obviously all discussion of batting order is premised around the idea that the order will be the most common order, the norm, not the exception.

By Bryan

January 15, 2008 3:46 PM | Link to this

TAMPA MIKE - hey, buddy, Royce Ring is Ledezma incarnate (with a little startup thrown in) … your right … we waved him, but he was traded to the padres before he cleared … ps ALL CAPS MAKES YOU LOOK RETARDED.

The ruckus about this trade is bizarre … when did Divine become a prospect anywhere near the value to get this p** about??? Seriously - he is nowhere near the caliber the player of Wainright (to who he keeps getting compared) and Kotsay was probably the best 1 year guy for the braves … THATS ALL THE BRAVES NEED (damn… took that all caps thing from tampa mike).

if we had traded for J.C. Drew but only needed him for one year (JS thought we could get him for longer) then that trade would have been OK - it was not … though that trade was not as bad as people think! That trade put the braves in the playoffs … almost took us to the NLCS (damn you reitsma!)

Look, the real problem is NOT JS or FW - its the god awful Turner / Warner Brothers / Time merger … seriously … the braves had a budget, the budget was changed after financial commitments had been made to a few (Jones, Jones, Smoltz) so the had to exist for a few years with a large amount of players on the braves roster signed to contracts while we were big ballin … and the rest of the guys on the team were signed to blue ballin contracts (one years, youngsters, and reclamations) because the budget constraints …

If the braves had been a part of liberty media this time last year and we could have signed Glavine the braves would have been in the playoffs in 2007 … i firmly believe that.

Here is the problem - for the future - over the past 4 years while operating under a suddenly smaller budget, the braves had to pay for the players given contacts while they had a big budget - and get new players via trade only (when was the last time we signed a free agent - glavine doesn’t count!). So, after that mess we have exhausted our resources while operating a bi-polar baseball team (half of the line up signed to contracts pre-warner crack down - the other half brought over by trades, youngsters, or reclamation projects).

The main reason the Braves made it though this time - BOBBY COX! He is the only reason chipper, smoltz, and hudson are still kicking it around in the A-town.

In honor of this rant … click this ted travels back in time to stop merger

By Fleeced Facts

January 15, 2008 3:46 PM | Link to this

It’s because sites like FJM and MLBTR actually give objective opinions based on things like facts and statistics instead of opinions based on personal interactions with players or a “gut feeling” a writer may have… There have been many breakthroughs in statistical analysis in baseball over the last 20 years or so. And yet most, and I do mean MOST sportswriters today reject new age sabremetrics and view it as something only used by “stat nerds” and people who just sit in front of a computer all day and never watch an actual game.

Those that can write, write. Those that can’t, sit in momma’s basement and mock.

Not everything needs to be looked upon from a sabermetric point of view. There’s room for everyone. If a nuclear attack was gonna happen by the end of the week, you would want to save two scientists, two poets, two artists, two musicians, two comedians, two actors, two farmers, two children, two playwrights, two engineers, two theologians, two doctors, two clergyman, two journalists, hell, two of everything. Only looking at things from one dogmatic point of view would do nobody any good. You would miss the beauty and artistry of things and would miss seeing the world through the eyes of a child.

The only people you wouldn’t save if the world was ending today are the politicians, the lawyers, and the loser bloggers in momma’s basement who can do little else but mock others who work for a living.

By Anders

January 15, 2008 3:52 PM | Link to this

DOB

*Glavine�s whole career as a Met was bad/mediocre.Anders

Ah, yes. That certainly strengthens your credibility.

2005: 13 wins, 3.53 ERA, 211-1/3 innings.

2006: 15 wins, 3.82 ERA, 198 innings.

2007: 13 wins, 4.45 ERA, 200-1/3 innings.

Postseason: three starts, 2-1, 1.59 ERA.

Good point, Anders. Bad/mediocre, indeed.*

Let’s tell the whole story. Glavine averaged 12-11 as a Met for 5 years. He was averaged 16-9 as a Brave for the previous 15.

12-11 is certainly mediocre in my book. I’ll back off of the bad comment. By whole career I meant his totals as a Met. Trust me, Met fans rarely saw the Glavine that pitched for you guys. Wether that was questec or not I have no idea but he had a real good 2006, the rest were below to well below his norm. The numbers don’t lie.

By EM

January 15, 2008 3:55 PM | Link to this

Fleeced Facts is a little bitter about something. Who is mocking any writer? I don’t get your complaint at all, pal. Sorry.

By Fleeced Facts

January 15, 2008 3:58 PM | Link to this

EM Do you not see the irony of what I was saying? I mock those who mock others and give someone a hard time for using info taken from another source when I myself used the very same information from another source to mock the one who was using that information before me. Wrap your mind around that one.

By FactChecker

January 15, 2008 4:00 PM | Link to this

It’s because sites like FJM and MLBTR actually give objective opinions based on things like facts and statistics instead of opinions based on personal interactions with players or a “gut feeling” a writer may have

Oh Bull. FJM is written by a small group of self-important jerks who mock everyone who doesn’t agree with their David Eckstein hatred. Also they believe absurd stats like VORP and OPS+ mean everything.

By They Call Me Abraham

January 15, 2008 4:03 PM | Link to this

so they had to exist for a few years with a large amount of players on the braves roster signed to contracts while we were big ballin … and the rest of the guys on the team were signed to blue ballin contracts

Blue balling contracts!!!!!!!!!!!! Classic!

By TennesseePaul

January 15, 2008 4:07 PM | Link to this

12-11 is certainly mediocre in my book

I heard that! Would not disagree with that in the least bit, you could go back to bad if you like on that one…
Now, where was that … I know it’s around here somewhere. Payne, perhaps you have it available… you know the study that says a pitchers win loss record isn’t necessarily a reflection of the pitchers ability but more so of the team… Mediocre Mets…

By EM

January 15, 2008 4:07 PM | Link to this

Ahh…interesting, Fleeced Facts. Still think you should lay off bloggers. There are some really good ones out there that provide information often passed over and ignored by the mainstream media.

By Bryan

January 15, 2008 4:08 PM | Link to this

once again - the braves sign glavine last year … we are in the playoffs …

and might i ad - ohh my gawd those new macbook air’s are freaking amazing!

DOB, have you gone to apple.com to check them out … no cd player … its all wireless or usb … you can install software onto the hard drive from another computer

By Shaun

January 15, 2008 4:08 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul, I get your points. But I have a hard time believing/accepting that to a major league hitter there is much of a difference hitting 5th or 6th, although the stats are much different for Kotsay in these two spots (and there is a fairly large sample of plate appearances for those two spots). I honestly think it’s just coincidence/random variation more than comfort or ability hitting in certain spots. I would tend to look at overall AVG/OBP/SLG to get an idea what he could and is likely to do in 2008 rather than what he did in certain spots in the order.

By Shaun

January 15, 2008 4:14 PM | Link to this

FactChecker, I think FireJoeMorgan mocks people who have a disdain for stats like VORP and OPS+ yet are too lazy to find out what they mean or too dumb to realize many teams utilize such stats to help build great teams.

By EM

January 15, 2008 4:14 PM | Link to this

yea but joe morgan should still be fired.

No one brought that site up by the way until fleeced facts. the original comment was just a link to mlb fleece factor about how James’s shoulder may have affected the Dejesus rumor from the winter meetings.

By Fleeced Facts

January 15, 2008 4:19 PM | Link to this

EM, I’m sorry. I should have left Fleece Factor alone. THat is a nice blog that does centralize information like MLBTraderumors does. Just wanted to do a little firejoemorgan.com type punk commentary. Unfortunately, I lashed out at the wrong blog.

By TennesseePaul

January 15, 2008 4:19 PM | Link to this

Interesting. Renteria and Kotsay are the same age. Renteria came up at 20, Kotsay a year later at 21.

Player    AVG  OBP  SLG K/BB
Renteria .288 .345 .399 1.58
Kotsay   .286 .341 .424 1.40

Those are the career numbers prior to Renteria coming to Atlanta and prior to Kotsay injuring his back. Strikingly similar. I found it interesting about Kotsay though. He had a better K/BB ratio and better slugging. Viewed from this angle he would appear to be the replacement for Renteria while Teixeira is the replacement for Andruw Jones.
I don’t know if Kotsay will come back to full health but if he does he has the potential to help this team.

By mo in the boonies

January 15, 2008 4:19 PM | Link to this

McFann Thanks for looking up the stats for me. Interesting aren’t they? And I guess we definitely don’t want him batting seventh! Grin

Beisbol The whole point of the Jamesian sabermetric revolution was to never become a slave to a set way of thinking Hmmm…I wonder has Bobby Cox ever heard of this Revolution?

I can live with the Devine/Jamie Richmond trade. But as to Kotsay’s passing the Brave’s physical, I have to agree with Random that it doesn’t appear to be too tough to pass a Brave’s physical.

I spent four hours listening to then congressional hearing on Baseball. Almost a total waste of time. Except that Tejada is going to undergo some Barry Bonds type scrutiny by the Feds in the near future.

By Shaun

January 15, 2008 4:20 PM | Link to this

I know it’s around here somewhere. Payne, perhaps you have it available… you know the study that says a pitchers win loss record isn’t necessarily a reflection of the pitchers ability but more so of the team

TennPaul, I would think that’s pretty self-evident, also.

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=2590

The idea behind the pitcher’s W/L record is flawed on its face. Wins are a team thing, after all, not a pitcher thing. If the offense fails to put runs on the board, or if the bullpen melts down in the late innings, the starter won’t get the win no matter how well he pitches. Conversely, if the offense is having a great night (or if they’re going up against the Rangers, which is pretty much the same thing), the starter doesn’t have to do anything more than last five innings to get the W.

By TennesseePaul

January 15, 2008 4:26 PM | Link to this

Payne: I think it has to do with who surrounds the batter at a given place in the line up. But, even besides that, some batters stink in different positions. It’s a mental thing. Giles went through it when trying to lead off. Willie bombed like mad when he was moved up in the order.
I understand the argument can be made that Giles was in a decline phase from PED withdrawl or something, but that was rather rapid towards the end there. Similar with Harris minus the PED. It could be said he reverted back to career norms, but again that was rather dramatic at the end. Not even a career norm. Just dropped off a cliff as soon as he was put up top. It’s the human element to the game. One may have the skill to accomplish the task but when they get in there they clam up and crack. Much like Bean did when he played.

By TennesseePaul

January 15, 2008 4:30 PM | Link to this

Sheeeeesh. Preformats come up like fine print here in Fairfield Ohio.

Payne: Thank you. That made my day… Ha!

By OrlandoFan

January 15, 2008 4:30 PM | Link to this

I sit in absolute awe of the statistics that spew forth on this blog. You people can crunch numbers. “Git ‘em on over….” gets my vote for the best post so far, though. He had some really interesting, nuanced comparisons. Oh, and the comments about bloggers…most of them are overworked writers who don’t have enough time to get more info into the blog — or energy, maybe — and they use the blog as a way to interject the opinions they can’t otherwise put into the newspaper. It’s talk radio in print, sort of. Conjecture more than new reporting. DOB is magnificent in my view, no only for his energy and research but also for his willingness to wade through, digest and respond to so many of us. It’s remarkable really. This is a great, informative and entertaining — if somewhat mean at times — blog.

By ncscoots

January 15, 2008 4:31 PM | Link to this

nolie, stats luddite…cool. Me likey. I plan to use that in a post as soon as I think people have forgotten you used it first.

Also they believe absurd stats like VORP and OPS+ mean everything.

Not that I’m a big fan of VORP, but OBP was once considered an “absurd stat”. All depends on your context, I’m guessin’.

I gotta say, the blog is rockin’ pretty good today, for a January day still a month away from PCR. Wish I had time to contribute to the merriment, but there you go…

By McFann

January 15, 2008 4:42 PM | Link to this

No problem, Mo. I kept a sheet of paper with the different spots that he bat in the lineup, and marked down the number of ABs, hits, etc. after each game. Bit of a pain in the rear if ever I forgot a day, but handy in the long run. I’m glad I could help. Yeah, I don’t want him batting seventh either.

: )

Oh, and a little side note here: Gwinnett is not “South Georgia”. We have to drive South to get to Downtown Atlanta and Turner Field. I guess it’s South if you live in the mountains…

By EM

January 15, 2008 4:45 PM | Link to this

Fleeced Facts - no worries. i hear where you’re coming from.

By Shaun

January 15, 2008 4:55 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul, could be a mental thing. Just one of those things we can never know.

On one level it makes some sense, but on another level, if a guy like Kotsay or Giles has enough talent and enough mental stability to sustain some level of success at the major league level for a decent number of years, it’s just hard for me to accept that they would choke at one spot in the order but not the next spot down.

By DonCoburleone

January 15, 2008 4:55 PM | Link to this

FJM does go a little extreme with their undying, blinding love for sabre-stats. However, the foundation of their arguments are always that statistics should come first, and personal feelings or attitudes towards a certain player should be secondary… Whats wrong with that? I’ve heard some sportswriters say they were going to vote for this guy or that guy because:

“I saw him pitch once in 1987 and he threw a one-hit shutout with 15 strikeouts. And then he still after the game had the strength left in his arm to give my son an autograph.”

That should not be a primary argument for inducting someone into the hall, that should be an afterthought to a primary argument like “He had the 3rd lowest ERA of any pitcher from 1980 to 1995; along with the 5th most innings pitched and 8th most strikeouts”… You see what I mean? Also, when sportswriters talk about David Eckstein being “gritty and gutty”, what exactly does that mean? Does it equal results? If so, how do you measure it???

By DAP

January 15, 2008 4:58 PM | Link to this

shaun i conceed, sir. you never said batting order doesnt matter, but you have repeatedly diminished the “importance” of it. which i think is silly, since, again, every team in the majors makes sure to do it, and you usually see similar types players in certain spots in the order. i tend to give the benifit of the doubt to the pros.

and yes, you dont say that its JUST OBP that is important to scoring runs, but you do tend to over emphasis which ever stat suits your purpose at the moment, and take a different stat if someone calls you on it.

i understand wanting to look at the whole picture, but with all respect, sometimes i think you miss that.

peace, blog bro.

By Alex

January 15, 2008 5:12 PM | Link to this

anyone else relieved that Arthur Blank didn’t end up buying the Braves? I mean he hired Crispin Glover as the Flacon’s new GM…imagine who he would have brought in to replace JS.

By David O'Brien

January 15, 2008 5:24 PM | Link to this

OK, got enough quotes about the Triple-A move to Gwinnett. THANKS MUCH. no more required. appreciate it greatly.

By Cliff

January 15, 2008 5:39 PM | Link to this

From yesterday. I expressed exactly what I intended to. “Kotsay at near his peak.” That means, not AT his peak, but NEAR his peak. As in 90% of his peak obp of 370 which would be 333. At that kind of a number, everybody on the squad projects a higher obp except maybe Frenchy who will slug enough to justify himself around 6th.

And, I still doubt that Kotsay can reach those kinds of numbers or cover centerfield as well as Anderson, at this time, with his injury history, at his age.

Cox has a terrible history of letting the proven veteran play way too long before you pull the plug. Therefore, the GM makes a mistake when he gives Cox a hopefully mediocre veteran player. A mistake just like giving a bottle of liquor to an alcoholic.

By McFann

January 15, 2008 5:42 PM | Link to this

Alex

I am EXTREMELY thankful that Arthur Blank didn’t buy the Braves!! That would have been a major league bummer, I tell ya.

By rich brave

January 15, 2008 6:05 PM | Link to this

CLIFF:

Interest analogy. I’ve had those thoughts myself occasionally. Boy, I hope you’re wrong here.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves in 2008)

January 15, 2008 6:13 PM | Link to this

O’Brien , your right. Wainwright didn’t pitch for the Cardinals in 2004. Jason Marquis did , with a record of 15-7 and an ERA of 3.71 .

Yes , it was a typo on my part. The Cardinals won the N.L. Championship in 2004 , their division in 2005 and the World Championship in 2006.

Marquis contributed during all three of those seasons , Wainwright pitched out of the Cardinals bullpen during the 2006 season.

The trade was Jason Marquis , Adam Wainwright and Ray King for J.D. Drew and Eli Marrero.

John Schuerholz got his A$$ handed to him in a paper sack , I knew it was a total fleece of the Braves the second I heard about it.

Again , I ask. Where is J.D. Drew ?

Adam Wainwright is still winning games in St. Louis and sporting a World Championship ring. Every time he wins a game for the Cardinals , this trade gets a little worse.

Don’t get me wrong , I think Schuerholz is a genius and is almost certain to be inducted into Cooperstown for the job he did as the Braves GM.

It’s his philosophy of treating the farm system as a tradeable commodity that I have always had a problem with.

Most of the time , the man has come out ahead by trading minor league potential for proven major league talent and as long as he had the budget to keep that talent , it worked like a charm.

The Braves couldn’t afford to pay J.D.Drew after his breakout 2004 season and the Braves ended up way short in the pitching department during the 2006/2007 seasons.

The division streak ended , due more to economic factors than just this one trade.

O’Brien , just agree to disagree. I have made up my mind in this regard.

By Daybed Wagmoe

January 15, 2008 6:19 PM | Link to this

yeah, glavine averaged a 12-11 record as a Met. after his first two years, he was averaging a 10-14 record. after three years, it was 11-14. after four years, it was 12-12. that shows a pitcher who made was improving and making adjustments while aging.

others on here have pointed out that win-loss records “isn’t necessarily a reflection of the pitchers ability but more so of the team” (TennPaul). the Mets were a last place team in 2002, 2003, fourth place in 2004 and finally got over .500 in 2005. the teams with which glavine was playing simply weren’t good — hence, he didn’t have the offensive or defensive support he had in atlanta. he went from playing with chipper, andruw, sheffield, javy and furcal to guys like cliff floyd, very young versions of jose reyes and david wright, mike piazza, roger cedeno and timo perez.

By Braveheart

January 15, 2008 6:35 PM | Link to this

The Mets were 42-24 in Glavine’s last 66 starts up there in Queens. Before those last 3 starts, they were 42-21. If winning 66% of a pitcher’s 66 starts is bad/mediocre, then, well, ain’t much I can say about that.

They were 24-8 in his starts in 2006 and they were 18-12 in his first 30 starts last season. 42-30.

The problem was the Mets were far too reliant upon a 40 year old pitcher to not allow him to pace himself out to make only 30-32 starts.

Glavine had about 7 really bad starts last season. In his 27 best starts, he had an ERA around 2.70. From what DOB reported Wren and Cox and Glavine saying at the press conference, the Braves have recognized the folly of the ways the Mets used Glavine last year and plan to pace Glavine out so that he only makes about 30 starts over the course of the 182 day season.

Sounds alot smarter than demanding a 40 year old make 34 starts and wonder why he ransout of gas at the end.

By i can't take it anymore

January 15, 2008 6:36 PM | Link to this

David…this is a late reply…espn referred to atlanta as having a “shaky” pen in their article on the kotsay-devine trade. i think that’s where the “shaky” comments came from. so, that means the braves DID have a shaky pen because espn said so.

the mets fans… you got to love em. seeing the mets endure the worst collapse in baseball history takes the pain away. Anders, can you verify this as the worst collapse in baseball history? Espn said it was, so im just assuming it was. I’m just glad our good friend tom ensured you guys that little davy wright could start saving the world a little earlier.

By TennesseePaul

January 15, 2008 6:49 PM | Link to this

Payne: Fascinating. In the past when a blogger says something like “stats don’t let you know what’s going on with a guy”, you’ll respond with something to the affect of “the off year will show in his numbers”. Much like many here are doing with Kotsay. They see his numbers and see a reduction in output and proclaim him in a steady, somewhat steep, decline phase.
But it comes back to the main point everyone typically is trying to make. While you can see the result of the cause in the numbers the numbers don’t tell you the cause.
In Kotsay’s example, he’s been injured for a few years. Perhaps Kotsay’s age is partially to blame. Or maybe the injury did permanent damage and he will never again match his career numbers. But the team is obviously willing to take a chance that this is not the case and that he’ll be able to put up some good numbers this year assuming he’s healthy.

This applies to the case of the mental side. The results may be visible in the numbers, but the cause is not. It could be Giles couldn’t mentally handle the leadoff spot. When he went to Petco he was thrown back into the leadoff spot and struggled again. And as we hashed out last year, Petco is no place for a hitter but even Giles did bad for Petco standards.
Giles: .256/.335/.374 leading off
Giles: .295/.364/.471 batting second.

This is either a result of his position in the order or he needs his juice. I don’t know which one but the following is interesting:
When Giles bats leadoff he has practically the same K/PA and K/AB ratio as when he bats second. His K/BB ratio improves. He changes his approach in the leadoff spot in an attempt to draw more walks. He attempts to draw more walks and he does so ever so slightly, but it apparently adjusts his way of approaching the game from the plate and reduces his effectiveness when he pulls the trigger. Like he has his hand hovering over the “take” switch when in the leadoff spot, but has it over the “swing” switch when hitting second. He still has ability, but in the leadoff spot he’s slightly more hesitant at the plate which causes him to be late on pitches he’d normally hit which could send him into a spiral of un-needed swing adjustments further hurting his output. Couple that with his stated disdain for the spot and it should be obvious he has a different mindset depending on his place in the line up. It obviously affects him despite having made it all the way through the minors and succeeding in the majors.

The mental part of the game is big and it can affect the way a player with ability executes.

By TennesseePaul

January 15, 2008 6:56 PM | Link to this

From what DOB reported Wren and Cox and Glavine saying at the press conference, the Braves have recognized the folly of the ways the Mets used Glavine last year and plan to pace Glavine out so that he only makes about 30 starts over the course of the 182 day season.

Yes. The offseason need for an innings eater was obtained so that he can be paced and not leaned on to heavy and a young “6th starter” can come in to give Glav the time he needs because the bullpen was over taxed from all the young starters not going deep into games. No over use of the pen is possible this season so we’ll be fine with Yates.

If you read that real fast you hardly notice the run-on sentences and fractured paragraph flow…

By Braveheart

January 15, 2008 6:56 PM | Link to this

Someone may have already posted this but here are rankings of Braves prospects done by Baseball Prospectus

They call Schafer and Heyward 5 star prospects.

Lillibridge, Brandon Jones, Gorkys, Jair are labeled 4 star prospects.

By ncscoots

January 15, 2008 7:02 PM | Link to this

Sounds alot smarter than demanding a 40 year old make 34 starts and wonder why he ransout of gas at the end.

As opposed to trading for a third starter who actually COULD make 34 starts, LOL?

But, seriously, my friend, which is it on Glavine? Is he the guy who was brought in to solidify the rotation at 3, or is he the guy that has to be eased through the season with fewer starts? It can’t be both. The former reduces the pressure on the back-end to overproduce, and the latter increases it.

I’ll look for a response later…right now, it’s Tigers vs. Wolfpack hoop time!

By TennesseePaul

January 15, 2008 7:10 PM | Link to this

The former reduces the pressure on the back-end to overproduce, and the latter increases it.

The latter also increases the use of the pen… which apparently was already “shaky”…

By MetsFan1009

January 15, 2008 7:36 PM | Link to this

Braves/Mets Breakdown

C-McCann/Schneider:BRAVES(by a lot)

1B—Teixeira/Delgado:BRAVES(Del’s no slouch though)

2B-Johnson/Castillo:METS(personally I think Johnson’s better but…)

SS-Escobar/Reyes:METS(can’t really argue for Escobar)

3B-Jones/Wright:…first I’d like to say that no matter what I choose here there is a very long and accurate argument either way….METS

RF-Francouer/Church:BRAVES(I mean come on…)

CF-Kotsay/Beltran:METS

LF-Diaz/Alou:METS(if Alou doesn’t have a stroke in his old age)

Bench-Too close to call quite yet

SP-Smoltz/Martinez:BRAVES

SP-Hudson/Maine:BRAVES

SP-Glavine/Perez:BRAVES

SP-Hampton/Hernandez:METS(a pity vote….Hampton if not hurt is better but he will be hurt)

SP-James/Pelphrey:BRAVES

Closer-Soriano/Wagner:METS

Setup-Moylan/Feliciano:BRAVES

Coach-Cox/Randolf:BRAVES

By my count thats 9-7. Closer than most here think, but being realistic, I don’t think the Mets will be that bad. The Braves, though, are by far the better club. I think it’s the pitching that puts them ahead.

By Braveheart

January 15, 2008 7:54 PM | Link to this

My good buddies Scoots and 10Paul working the tag team on me in the steel cage match.

I think the Braves might get just as many innings out of Glavine in 31 starts as they would in 34 starts. What we saw last year out of Glavine in his last 3 starts was the point of diminishing returns.

If he is properly paced and makes 31 starts, the thinking of the Braves must be that he can average around 6.2 innings per start. If he averages 6.2 innings per start over 31 starts, that would be about 190 innings.

But if he is asked to make 34 starts, he may only be effective enough to pitch the same 190 innings and then 10 horrendous innings at the end of the season.

Pacing Glavine so that there is a reduced number of starts will actually make Glavine more effective and efficient in his 30, 31 starts and produce the same amount of innings eating as he would make in total in 34 starts.

30 starts with an average of over 6 innings per start with an ERA hovering around 4 is better than 34 starts with less than 6 innings per start and an ERA around 4.50.

In his first 31 starts last year, he pitched 190 innings and had a 3.88 ERA.

Couldn’t you do without the 3 extra starts and 10.3 innings that shot his ERA up to 4.50?

In the last two seasons when he has received 5+ days of rest, Glavine is 13-6 in 33 starts, with 205.7 innings pitched, a 3.67 ERA, and a 1.28 WHIP, and has averaged 6.23 innings per start.

In the last two seasons when he has received less than 5 days of rest, Glavine is 16-9 in 33 starts with 192.7 innings with a 4.62 ERA and 1.47 WHIP and 5.84 innings per start.

There are 6 months to the season with 182 or so days including offdays. One start every six days would give him about 30, 31 starts and probably as many innings as he would get if he started 34 games. And they would be more effective innings.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves in 2008)

January 15, 2008 7:55 PM | Link to this

Hey Shaun , here ya go buddy. An unvarnished non-opinionated stat based evaluation of the Marquis/Wainwright for J.D. Drew trade.

J.D. Drew hit 31 HR’s with 93 RBI and batted .305 in one season with Atlanta.

Marquis and Wainwright have so far combined for 58 wins 50 losses , 881.7 innings , an ERA of 4.28 and 3 saves. While playing parts of four different seasons for the Cardinals.

Draw your own conclusions.

By TommyP

January 15, 2008 7:58 PM | Link to this

Coach: You lose your target audience when you suggest Jason Marquis is anything special. Was it you referring to the Drew trade-cost as “two first round pitchers?” Can you tell me what that has to do with anything? Piazza was drafted in the, what, 50th round? How many first rounders pan out? If you were complaining about the Drew deal back then with that logic, well, maybe it SOUNDED good to you.

Jason Marquis was a cancer in the Atlanta clubhouse. He wasn’t very well liked and Mazzone couldn’t stand him. Wainwright was a talent but I believe the thinking was that he’d struggle to repeat his mechanics being as tall as he is.

Marquis has kept his ERA under 4.00 just twice in his CAREER. Those ERA’s the last two years sure have been nice (6.02 and 4.60).

The thing that makes that deal look bad to you has to be the fact that Drew didn’t re-sign. So don’t complain about the trade…complain about the failed resigning of Drew.

By McFann

January 15, 2008 8:08 PM | Link to this

Hey, MetFan 1009, if you’re typing that the Braves have the better catcher, I take back something I’ve said/thought for a long time:

I guess there is one smart Mets fan.

By David O'Brien

January 15, 2008 8:09 PM | Link to this

and might i ad - ohh my gawd those new macbook air’s are freaking amazing!

DOB, have you gone to apple.com to check them out … no cd player … its all wireless or usb … you can install software onto the hard drive from another computerBryan

Bryan, that made me feel old. Was that in English?

By Roman Gal

January 15, 2008 8:10 PM | Link to this

Well congratulations to Gwinnettians everywhere. I’m excited about the Gwinnett Braves. Maybe it didn’t come across that way in the past few days, but I am. It will be easier to follow prospects. Now we can see for ourselves just how good certain players are.

By mr baseball

January 15, 2008 8:20 PM | Link to this

Why the J.D. Drew trade was great for the Cards and questionable for the Braves: The Cards were actively looking to unload the injury-prone Drew and actually got plenty of value for him. They also replaced him more than adequately with Reggie Sanders and later, Larry Walker.

Drew had a great season for the Braves (better and far fewer missed games than they could have expected), but after that one season he was gone, which was a given from the day he was acquired.

There were 2 quality available free agents who could have been signed to play RF until Francouer was ready. One of them had a terrific year in ‘04 (Jose Guillen); the other was adequate (Raul Ibanez). But they would have cost more than Drew, Guillen in particular. I order to save a few million $, chump change at that level, the Braves could have held onto Wainwright and dealt Marquis for a secondary piece.

As much as I like stats, there are way too many numbers that don’t mean all that much but are treated as if they are the ultimate truth in baseball. Some of what Bill James has offered is techno-babble, but a lot of his early work still has great merit, especially his correlations.

One of the correlations involves the relationship between big innings and wins. I think he pretty conclusively proved that the best way to win is to score as many runs as you can when you get a chance. The philosophy of get ‘em on, get ‘em over, get ‘em in — “little ball” — only works for teams with plenty of speed, very little power and great pitching.

You do not win baseball games by giving up outs, especially from quality hitters like Renteria. Playing for big innings is not just waiting for one of Earl Weaver’s 3-run homers. It’s stringing multiple hits (plus a walk or 2) together, something the Braves have proven to be quite accomplished at the past few seasons.

Why is there a debate about who should be hitting 2nd in the order? Unless your leadoff hitter is a stolen base threat, the supposed attributes needed by a No. 2 hitter (bat control, patience) are totally unneccesary. In the Braves’ lineup, there is zero difference between the roles of the leadoff and No. 2 hitters.

As I posted last night, the batting order needs to be arranged to avoid having too many lefties bunched together. It’s in the Braves’ best interest to have a RH hitter in the 2 hole to make it harder for opposing managers to match up their lefty relievers, especially in regards to Chipper (unless he regains his RH stroke).

Batting order:

1 - KJ; 2 - Escobar; 3 - Chipper; 4 - Tex; 5 - McCann; 6 - Francouer; 7 - Kotsay; 8 - Diaz. Can flip flop 5/6 and 7/8 depending on who’s pitching, and Diaz could move up in the lineup against lefties if KJ and/or Kotsay struggles against them.

By Stinky

January 15, 2008 8:23 PM | Link to this

Is Francoeur going bald?

By McFann

January 15, 2008 8:28 PM | Link to this

“Is Francoeur going bald?” Where on earth did that come from?

By McFann

January 15, 2008 8:30 PM | Link to this

Thanks, Roman Gal! My family and I are excited about the move. It might be fun to go see a minor league game sometime. Never done that before.

By Roman Gal

January 15, 2008 8:32 PM | Link to this

Stinky Frenchy just wants to be like David Wright.

By TennesseePaul

January 15, 2008 8:33 PM | Link to this

I yes Braveheart. Scoots will have his own retort. I apperciate the spin, but the discussion this whole winter was how the Braves don’t need a Dan Haren (a young ace with several years of control remaining) because they solved the bullpen overuse/starting pitcher short comings by getting an “innings eater” in Glavine. I may have some of the phrasing wrong but the idea centered around the 200 innings Glavine can offer for 1 season. This was better than trading minor leaguers for 200 innings and 3 seasons of a pitcher like Dan Haren.

Truth is Glavine, even rested, is still going to have the bad outing. All pitchers have them in the course of the year. It’d be nice if it were possible to reduce Glavine’s work load by only cutting out his bad outings. The tough nut is you never know when those outings will come. And in the limited use of the new found innings eater we revert back to the young pitching situations of previous years. Perhaps our depth has improved in the minors. It’s going to be much needed if our inning eaters are being put on a diet.

By Roman Gal

January 15, 2008 8:40 PM | Link to this

McFann, minor league games are FUN! Players are nicer and more willing to give you autographs.

By TennesseePaul

January 15, 2008 8:40 PM | Link to this

the batting order needs to be arranged to avoid having too many lefties bunched together

You’re in for a long season mr baseball. Cox likes the line up to be heavily tilted to either hand.

RHP:
Kelly
Kotsay/BJones
Chipper
Teixeira
McCann
BJones/Kotsay
Francoeur
Yunel

He always does this. The opposing team gets in a nice smooth grove of facing batters from only one side of the plate throughout the game.

By McFann

January 15, 2008 9:10 PM | Link to this

Roman Gal

I have heard that minor league games are fun. I think one of my aunts was talking about it once. Can’t wait for the Gwinnett Braves!

10Paul’s lineup looks good. Bat Francoeur seventh!!

By TennesseePaul

January 15, 2008 9:24 PM | Link to this

Just for that McFann I’m putting McCann Eigth and Francoeur in the 3 hole.

By McFann

January 15, 2008 9:41 PM | Link to this

10Paul

You spelled “Eighth” wrong!! Ha ha ha ha ha!!

And what do you mean “Just for that”? I didn’t say anything offensive………IMO…

By McFann

January 15, 2008 9:45 PM | Link to this

(Forgot this in my last post. Dangit!! Now I’ll have two in a row. That’s my pet peeve, two in a row.)

You can’t put Francoeur 3rd!! Chipper is s’posed to bat 3rd!!

Ain’t a way Chipper’s gonna be moved. And if he did get moved, where to? Seventh? I don’t think so!!

By NorthBeach Scott

January 15, 2008 10:02 PM | Link to this

Mr. Baseball Regarding the JD Drew/Wainwright, et al trade evaluation. I thought the Braves offered JD Drew arbitration and received compensatory selections in the draft (the second round pick in 2005 was Yunel Escobar), but after checking, the Braves did not risk arbitration with his injury history (and with the Maddux/Millwood arbitration mess).

The Braves also enjoyed a fine season of pinch hitting and utilty work from Eli Marrero with .320/.374/.520 and 10 dingers and 40 RBI. Not too shabby.

Also in fairness, doughnut-boy Ray King was also sent to St. Louis and provided servicable situational lefty relief.

Not sure there is an absolute measure of an outcome of a trade like this until the careers of all the prinicpals are completed. Sure is fun to debate.

By Overlord

January 15, 2008 11:14 PM | Link to this

hitting yunel anywhere but 2nd is a total mistake.

By AdirondackDave

January 15, 2008 11:19 PM | Link to this

DOB — On those new Macs… now imagine you’re 70 and trying to keep up with this stuff!

By brian

January 16, 2008 12:02 AM | Link to this

overlord:

by what measuring stick or statistic would you use to say hitting Yunel leadoff, based on his performance last year, would be a mistake?

I think he would be a great #2 hitter as well, but he was a superb leadoff hitter last year. Either place is fine by me and I would agree with DOB that I just want him to hit, not think about moving runners, etc.

By Bryan

January 16, 2008 12:15 AM | Link to this

Hey - if your special someone doesn’t make you feel old (props) …

just to clear the air, freaking is not really in my vocabulary …

seriously though … have you checked them out?

By mr baseball

January 16, 2008 12:51 AM | Link to this

TennPaul:

As a thinking Braves fan, it’s always a long season regarding dugout strategy. Why do think I refer to the man in charge as Chance the Manager? I’m assuming regulars on here have seen the classic “Being There.”

On a separate note, has any team (other than maybe Oakland) undergone a more significant roster change post-season than the Braves. I count 12 guys departed from the active roster at the end of the season & 7 new additions. Of the position players, Francouer & McCann are now the 2nd and 3rd senior Braves in terms of time with team (not counting Javy), and Hudson — with all of 3 years here — is No. 2 in in continuous service here behind Smoltz.

By Nolie

January 16, 2008 12:55 AM | Link to this

Shaun now its slugging% that dictates how many runs teams score? before git ‘em’s post it was OBP. you are again changing the premise of your argument so you dont sound wrong.daop

I think you are confusing Shaun’s posts with mine. I posted OBP and Mr GetEnIn didn’t effectively refute it at all in fact. As I posted later the 4 teams with the highest OBP were the 4 teams with the most runs scored. Superstition and untested supposition prove nothing but an illogical approach to analysis. But heh some people play poker without knowing the odds too so whatever floats your boat. BTW I always let those guys sit into my games.

By Nolie

January 16, 2008 2:03 AM | Link to this

To go a little farther on the OBP thingy. In ‘06 the top 5 scoring teams were in the top 8 OBP. In ‘05 The top 3 scoring teams were in the top 4 OBP. In ‘04 the top 6 scoring teams were in the top 7 OBP teams. I’m too lazy to go any farther. Obviously there is no one thing that solely determines scoring, but more opportunities mostly lead to more runs… in the long run. Though I like and use stats I will be the first person to say that there is more than just stats in real baseball. They are only perfect in telling us what happened and like someone earlier posted -only what happened, not why it happened. However the use of the most reliable ones can give us at least an inkling of what will(should)occur in the future, We’re not gonna change each others viewpoints so no need to keep posting strongly enough to cause bad feelings, so I’m gonna try to sign off on this for awhile. G’nite ;>)

By Coach (Lets Go Braves In 2008)

January 16, 2008 3:23 AM | Link to this

Yes , the roster turnover has been incredible in recent years. Just going back to 2005 , there are only 11 players left from the 45 who saw action that season still in a Braves uniform.

On another note , John Smoltz is about to begin his twenty-first (counting the 2000 season which was lost to T.J. surgery) season as a Brave. The man is a Dinosaur.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves In 2008)

January 16, 2008 3:45 AM | Link to this

This what steroids looked like in 1988.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=g-y1g5mtQGU&feature=related

By ncgary

January 16, 2008 6:12 AM | Link to this

By Anders

January 15, 2008 12:50 PM | Link to this

DOB

Robert (CIB): Two terrible starts and one bad/mediocre one. That was Glavine’s “bad down the stretch.” His last three starts of the season.

Do you know how weak this argument sounds? He was the supposed ace veteran HOF’er of the staff!!! He’s supposed to stop losing streaks. He got progressively worse as the stakes rose through the end of the pennant stretch. He couldn’t get two outs in the last game with everything on the line!! You mention it like it’s a throw away game at Florida in May. If it was Pedro who did this instead you would throw it in my face every chance you got. His ERA went up almost half a run in September alone - hard to do by a 200 inning guy. Glavine’s whole career as a Met was bad/mediocre.

face it anders glavine is like the rest of the atlanta fans he hates the mets, he wasnt injured and he will win 15 this year, so you figure out what really happened

By Coach (Lets Go Braves In 2008)

January 16, 2008 6:18 AM | Link to this

Here is another interesting read about Steroids from four years ago.

http://www.amconmag.com/20040412/article.html

By Coach (Lets Go Braves In 2008)

January 16, 2008 6:48 AM | Link to this

http://www.amconmag.com/20040412/article

By doc

January 16, 2008 7:32 AM | Link to this

david, look forward to the article on the gwinett braves. that move has so many positives attached to it that i am amazed some folks consider it in a negative way. even the richmond folks with hurt feelings need to realize the potential to the braves organization alone is huge if they are true braves fans. they also have to look deep and realize that their stewardship was not very promising into the future based on how their politicians had handled the process in the past.

it gives gwinett a unique identity as well as they now are home of four franchises in sports if am am not mistaken. they have done a very creative job of bringing and supporting entertainment and minor league sports to the area that i am amazed at how this could not be a huge winner for both sides. while i am less apt to go see a minor league hockey game though it is in the realm of possibility and not going to see arena football or women’s basketball though i respect it for what it is as good fundamental play; i will be tempted do the occasional baseball game out there just for my own love for the game and nostalgia that i feel for the crackers that i grew up with. 12 dollar seats, affordable beer, hotdogs and peanuts outside watching a good level of baseball seeing the prospects and maybe the recovering major leaguer with cox sitting close by on occasion …. the good life.

as far as the congress probe on steroids in baseball, one more reason to have little faith in what it can accomplish beyond set up circus tents and spend money. uninformed folks sounding like buffoons with subject matter of significance. lew you might agree; libertarian approach to life may be the individual answer, take care of yourself and those around and dont expect anything to come in if it involves government doing anything except embellish itself. since baseball is in the political arena presently, hopefully, i am not going beyond my blog bounds that i respect as i am speaking philosophically rather than politically.

By Random

January 16, 2008 8:35 AM | Link to this

Coach—

Your link didn’t work — maybe this one will.

(I haven’t had time to read it yet, though, so ‘no comment’ as to its content.)

By rich brave

January 16, 2008 8:35 AM | Link to this

doc:

Check previous posts here and on CC’s blog. No hurt feelings. Just a wistful sigh for what was and could have been. The Braves are better off and I am glad. This area’s far too large to not have a major sports franchise ultimately. I’m not sure exactly what. Years ago I was young and ‘Dr. J’ was a rookie straight out of U. Mass. 85 people came downtown to see him play. He was phenomenal. I told everyone I knew how exciting he was. No one I knew EVER went. That’s Richmond sports from my youth. I think the word’s out on Richmond now and the Braves stuck with us far longer than most organizations would have.

On a personal level, I am still trying to find an outlet for games on Cable T.V. other than the Nats. No success yet. Am I doomed to listen to Don Sutton 18 times a year? And read box scores? Of course, I could divorce my bride and move to Gwinnett. She just admonished me for not working on my thesis, but since its in history, the Braves and Richmond are both most apropos. Sayonara for now.

By Random

January 16, 2008 8:49 AM | Link to this

doc: as far as the congress probe on steroids in baseball … uninformed folks sounding like buffoons with subject matter of significance.

Gotta disagree here — steroid use by professional athletes is a subject matter of incredible insignificance in the context of governance. Congress has a lot more important things on its plate, and always will.

By Lew

January 16, 2008 9:02 AM | Link to this

RichBrave-Outside the Braves’ area, the only option is with either digital cable or satellite TV-MLB Extra Innings package. I saw all but two Braves games on TV using this last year. I’m not sure how losing TBS will impact it (though they were on both at times), but they should televise almost all of the Braves’ games-especially if they do fairly well (you don’t see all the Rays games). Sometimes you get the opposing team’s feed, which makes you appreciate the Braves’ announcers more (even Chip).

It is somewhat expensive. It usually costs about $160 per season (they break it into four payments on your cable bill), but it is the only TV option I have heard about. You also get about 100 other games per week and you can watch almost any other team. It was nice watching Dodgers games and listening to Vin Scully. It was also nice watching the Mets tank at the end of the season and watching the Phillies overtake them.

Check with your cable company around the middle of March. They usually run a special the first week or so of the season which saves you $20.

By doc

January 16, 2008 9:07 AM | Link to this

your opinion random, i am sure we could debate it at length and ultimately agree to disagree. just dont have time to hash it out and feel you probably dont either. i do agree that congress has a lot on its plate that they do such a poor job of this task is only a reminder of how fragile it really is maybe and maybe if you read carefully was one of my major frightening points which you may not disagree with.

from a personal standpoint as a doc i have seen the ravages of steroids given as medicine much less as a “performance enhancer” so i think it is of importance for educational fodder if nothing else. they arent benign and i think many folks thought they were. the feds dont, the fda dont and they are restricted for a reason and not over the counter in the u.s.

rich, i know there are several folks on this blog that are able to look at it pragmatically. shame your politicians didnt think it was of importance to really see how it could be a win/win. it doesnt escalate richmond to a bigger scale is my guess and it has been traditionally out-manuevered by several cities around it in regional importance. just an impression not a fact.

By Shaun

January 16, 2008 9:21 AM | Link to this

shaun i conceed, sir. you never said batting order doesn’t matter, but you have repeatedly diminished the “importance” of it. which i think is silly, since, again, every team in the majors makes sure to do it, and you usually see similar types players in certain spots in the order. i tend to give the benefit of the doubt to the pros.

DAP, I’m not sure how the fact that the pros have a fairly standard way of setting up a batting order means it is extremely important. If arranging a batting order a certain way even makes a little bit of difference (which I think it does), I would hope the pros would do it that certain way. After all, their job with a lineup is to try to score as many runs as possible.

and yes, you don’t say that its JUST OBP that is important to scoring runs, but you do tend to over emphasis which ever stat suits your purpose at the moment, and take a different stat if someone calls you on it.

I seem to over-emphasis certain stats that are very important to things like scoring when people deny that there is a strong correlation between those stats and scoring and I am answering their criticisms with truth. It’s not that it suits me, it’s that someone is denying the truth about such stats and I am simply trying to point it out.

As I basically said yesterday, the numbers speak for themselves and some things are self-evident, but a few still want to deny things that are self-evident. As Nolie points out, baserunners lead to scoring opportunities and scoring opportunities lead to scoring. Also, as he points out, the top on-base teams are generally the top scoring teams.

By DAP

January 16, 2008 10:15 AM | Link to this

shaun about batting order, i think that if you had the perfect team, full of guys that have high OBP and slugging%, it wouldnt matter much what order you put them in. so you are totally correct about that

the reason i think batting order IS so important is that players have different strengths, and when you get a team together they will probably all be very different players. then it becomes important to put guys in an order that brings out thier strengths and minimizes thier weaknesses. i think you get what im saying.

By Git 'em on, git 'em over, git 'em in

January 16, 2008 10:19 AM | Link to this

The Philles had a .354 OBP. The Rockies had a .354 OBP. The Philles scored 32 more runs. That is a 0.2 difference per game. Pretty significant. Where’s this strong correlation between OBP and runs scored?

The Braves had a .339 OBP, the Cardinals had a .337 OBP, the Dodgers had a .337 OBP. The Braves scored 810 runs, the Cardinals scored 725 runs, the Dodgers scored 735 runs. Where’s this nonexistent strong correlation between OBP and runs scored?

The Mets had a .342 OBP, the Brewers had a .329 OBP. The Mets scored 804 runs, the Brew Crew scored 801 runs. Where’s this nonexistent strong correlation between OBP and runs scored?

The Padres had a .322 OBP, the Dodgers had a .337 OBP, the Cardinals had a .337 OBP. The Padres scored 741 runs, the Dodgers scored 735 runs, the Cardinals scored 725 runs. Where’s this nonexistent strong correlation between OBP and runs scored?

The Yankees had a .366 OBP, the Bosox had a .362 OBP. The Yankees scored 968 runs, the Bosox scored 867 runs. A 101 run difference. Where’s this nonexistent strong correlation between OBP and runs scored?

The Tigers had a .345 OBP, the Angels had a .345 OBP. The Tigers scored 887 runs, the Angels scored 822 runs. Where’s the nonexistent strong correlation between OBP and runs scored?

The Mariners had a .337 OBP, Oakland had a .338 OBP. The Mariners scored 794 runs, Oakland scored 741 runs. Where’s this nonexistent strong correlation between OBP and runs scored?

The Rangers had a .328 OBP, the Angels had a .345 OBP, the Indians had a .343 OBP. The Rangers scored 816 runs, the Angels scored 822 runs, the Indians scored 811 runs. Where’s this nonexistent strong correlation between OBP and runs scored?

Seems some of you have some ‘splaining to do. Good luck with that. It will require thought and analysis and not just simply regurgitating what you have read elsewhere like the unoriginal thinkers you are. Meet the new stats, same as the old stats. Free your minds. Use your minds. You are more than parrots. The Lord gave you minds. A mind is a terrible thing to waste. The memorization skills seem to be intact but not the analytical skills. You have unfortunately become as enslaved to OBP as those who were enslaved to RBI & AVG.

Git ‘em on, git ‘em over, git ‘em in.

By Shaun

January 16, 2008 10:24 AM | Link to this

Here are some Baseball Think Factory’s ZiPS projections for Mark Kotsay in 2008:

Projection: .277 AVG/.334/.388, 88 OPS+

Optimistic: .299/.363/.433, 107 OPS+

Pessimistic: .256/.308/.334, 68 OPS+

http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/oracle/discussion/oaklandasdumped_kotsay/

By Lew

January 16, 2008 10:36 AM | Link to this

Git Em On-That’s because a runner on base is just that-a runner on base-until one of those RBI guys knocks him in. But RBI, according to Shaun, are quite secondary to the process.

By Shaun

January 16, 2008 10:38 AM | Link to this

Git ‘em on, git ‘em over, git ‘em in,

Again, the discrepancy between the teams you mention can be found in their slugging/total base ability.

Also, a strong correlation doesn’t necessarily mean perfect correlation.

Yes, Git ‘em on, git ‘em over, git ‘em in is an appropriate way to look at things. And how do you measure that?

Git ‘em on: OBP

Git ‘em over: SLG

Git ‘em in: Runs

It’s not a matter of being original or unoriginal; it’s a matter of what is there and self-evident.

Isn’t it funny that the top seven and eight of the top 9 NL teams in scoring all had above average OPSs. Isn’t it funny how all of the bottom six teams in scoring finished with below average OPSs? Hmm…I see no correlation there.

I’m a slave to OBP and SLG because I have to be—those stats tell the story of offense in baseball, and it’s pretty freakin’ obvious.

By Shaun

January 16, 2008 10:49 AM | Link to this

Lew, yes, you are right; and RBI guys are the SLG guys. That’s why OBP and SLG are most telling.

By nOLIE

January 16, 2008 10:55 AM | Link to this

You have unfortunately become as enslaved to OBP as those who were enslaved to RBI & AVG.GEO

as you seem t be on RISP. take s little analysis to figure out that the more opportunities there are to score the more likely it is for runs to score. plus teams with high OBP will likely continue to get on base during RISP situations too. I don’t have to do any explaining past that. Personally I think you are being kind of pretentious right now. Every year the teams with the highest OBP are the teams that score the most runs . Use you pompous deductive skills and figure it out yourself. Way too high a correlation to be random.

By rich brave

January 16, 2008 10:58 AM | Link to this

LEW:

MLB - Extra Innings package. Thanks. Keep drawin’ man. I had a good friend and neighbor who lived most of his life in Oregon. He had a saying which I’ll leave with you. Upon parting, he would refer to the Salmon runs of that region as an analogy and say to me “Keep swimmin’ and I’ll see you futher upstream.” Alas, he finally reached the branch where he was born. So to the Braves I say the same.

By nOLIE

January 16, 2008 11:11 AM | Link to this

Also, a strong correlation doesn’t necessarily mean perfect correlationShaun

right. in baseball there are no perfect correlations. and OBP correlates higher for whatever reason(and other than extreme stat geeks who really cares?All most want to do is have some little bit of insight about how certain players or teams might do) than HR, SB or Sacs most every year. Anyone denying that has got to be being deliberately obtuse. Sure you can go to OPS too which is also high but since many consider OBP to be slightly more important than S% I just used it. And the instances that you cite are repeated for the most part year after year. 4 of 4 in ‘07, 5 of 8 in ‘06, 3 of 4 in ‘05, 6 of 7 in ‘04. How anybody could state that there is no correlation in those figures is beyond me . Is this one of those infamous exiled poster bogeymen that one hears tales of terror about from time to time? Rather pretentious and pompous if so.

By McFann

January 16, 2008 11:13 AM | Link to this

Pardon me for butting in, but I think OBP is a very important stat. Without guys getting on base, the only RBIs would come by way of solo homers. May I hit you again with a phrase (Well, almost a phrase): There’s no “I” in “Runs scored”. (Unless it’s a solo homer, heh heh.)

Course, there is an “I” in “RBI”, but my point is—as is Shaun’s apparently—that one cann only knock in runs if somebody gets on base (unless they hit solos).

You cann look at RBIs as an indicator of how often the guys in front of a player get on base, and yes, how well that player hit with men on. But OBP is a better way to tell how good a player is, because he is able to get on base to create runs to be scored. Scoring runs takes team effort. (Unless you’re hittin’ solos, heh heh.)

By rich brave

January 16, 2008 11:16 AM | Link to this

doc:

Yours of 9:07 a.m. The local politico leader in Richmond is currently in his 70’s and of some note as the first African-American Governor in America’s history. But the dude and most of the hidebound leaders of the surrounding counties just don’t give priority to sports. Nothing personal where the Braves are concerned. They don’t go to games I guess. And they don’t give the appearance of concerns where quality of life in this locale should include high-level professional sports. Like I said with ‘Dr. J’ its devoid of interest. A and AA are being bandied about. I suppose they will locate here for now, but the National AAA affiliate makes the most sense. With Richmond on the south, Washington on the north and an A team in Fredericksburg, The Washington franchise could accomplish the same result as Atlanta’s doing now with its moves. Somehow that what I see for the future here. And thanks to Lew maybe Braves games on MLB - Extra innings.

By Overlord

January 16, 2008 11:22 AM | Link to this

brian, yunel is just a much better hitter than KJ, its like hitting renteria leadoff. He could have great number as leadoff, but he is one of the best #2 hitters in the game. And i would say yunel will turn into one himself.

I really prefer having yunel at the plate with KJ on 1st and chipper on deck than yunel on 1st, kj at the plate and chipper on deck. And i really think opposing pitchers think the same. To me yunel is more dangerous than kj and you want him behind your leadoff. Yunel is like edgar, if chipper was not on this team, those 2 could easily be #3 hitter (when edgar was here i mean). Could you say the same about KJ? i wouldnt say that.

I mean, it could be either way, but to me a lineup with yunel hitting 2nd would be far more productive. Just my point of view. I see yunel as one of those guys you dont want to face when chipper is on deck, he is dangerous, baseball is in his blood. Youll get it once season starts.

By Git 'em on, git 'em over, git 'em in

January 16, 2008 11:30 AM | Link to this

That’s because a runner on base is just that-a runner on base-until one of those RBI guys knocks him in. But RBI, according to Shaun, are quite secondary to the process.

Lew RBI guys are not secondary to Shaun. RBI guys simply don’t exist to Shaun.

In ‘06 the top 5 scoring teams were in the top 8 OBP. In ‘05 The top 3 scoring teams were in the top 4 OBP. In ‘04 the top 6 scoring teams were in the top 7 OBP teams.

Nollie, that is not proof at all of a strong correlation between OBP and runs scored. For there to be a strong correlation, it would have to be as close to one to one as possible.

In 2007, the top 4 NL scoring teams were in the top 5 in AVG. In 2007, the top 8 scoring NL teams were in the top 8 in SLG. In 2007, the top 15 scoring teams in the entire majors were in the top 16 in SLG. It’s so self evident.

Such flawed analysis either way. But at least I admit it instead of this condescending tone about things being self-evident when all the stats I am putting out there say otherwise.

Git ‘em on, git ‘em over, git ‘em in.

By rich brave

January 16, 2008 11:45 AM | Link to this

STATS GUYS:

Didn’t Yunel play a little lead-off last year? If so what were his stats vs Kelly’s? I’m thinking #1 and Yunel does get on. Kelly’s bat discipline is now behind him. He walks. Now Chip comes up with two on and no outs. Is he going to hit into a DP or rope a double scoring two? In a tight game he walks and they’re loaded for Tex. Jeeze A-brass put Tex-dude onto the fast-track for a long-term contract.

By flange1

January 16, 2008 11:48 AM | Link to this

Good Morning All,

To the folks in Richmond,

I am sorry the R Braves are moving out of Richmond. I know it is loss for the fans in the area that their long term team is gone. Hope you can pull a solid AA team in for the baseball fans in the city.

To the folks in Growing Gwinnett,

SUPPORT THE BABY BRAVES!!!!

On the roster,

I like the Kotsay trade. I have felt for the last year that Devine was not going to be trusted in the BP. I wish him well in Oakland.

Their has been speculation on the makeup of the bench and the bullpen and that will get resolved as the team gets closer to opening day. I see quite a few guys who are out of options that probably will not make the team.

My question to the group, do these players have trade value now? I guess my thoughts are if we keep all of these guys around, when spring training is over and the final roster gets set, other teams will know that the Braves have to either trade these guys or waive them and hope to resign them.

Are we better off trading some/all of them now for something?

The guys I am talking about are S. Thorman, W. Aybar, B. Pena, G. Blanco, B Boyer, T. Yates, J. Bennett.

I think Bennett Aybar and maybe Yates will stick with the big team, but I don’t think the others guys will be around.

Thoughts?

By DAP

January 16, 2008 12:19 PM | Link to this

flange1 i think aybar, yates, thorman and boyer will definitely stay with the big club.

our bullpen doesnt have as much depth as it did at the beginning of the offseason, so we dont really have a ton of leeway there, and we dont really have anyone else to back up 1st. i dont think pena is a real option there. aybar i think is simply the best choice.

blanco isnt out of options, so he will most definitely play at AAA this year.

if pena doesnt get the backup catcher job, i think hes gone. i think thatll be the only way he makes the team, and bennett will be battling with jurjens, and reyes for longman/6th starter(if hampton starts). the other two are younger and probably have more to gain starting in the minors. i think bennett will get the last spot in the bullpen.

thats all the guys you mentioned. other teams know they are out of options so it makes it really hard to trade them. the best bet is to find teams that have guys that are also out of options, and just swap. however, to do that, youve got to find teams who have guys who can start right away for you, and your guys have to be able to start right away from them, there are just too many variables to be likely to happen.

By David O'Brien

January 16, 2008 12:24 PM | Link to this

Rich Brave, Yunel hit leadoff enough to qualify for the league-leader rankings, and was second in the NL with a .400 leadoff OBP (Hanley Ramirez .405). Meanwhile, Kelly wasn’t too far back, fifth in the NL with .372 leadoff OBP.

Stats strictly as leadoff men:

YUNEL: .351 (53-for-151) with 15 doubles, two homers, 16 RBI, 10 walks, 22 K, .400 OBP, .490 slugging

KELLY: .268 (82-for-306) with 14 doubles, 6 triples, 9 homers, 40 RBI, 49 walks, 63 K, .372 OBP, .441 slugging.

Two pretty damn good options, if you ask me.

By David O'Brien

January 16, 2008 12:32 PM | Link to this

Bryan, she most definitely doesn’t (make me feel old, that is).

And by checking “those” out, are you talking about the new Mac Air laptops? If so, I just saw them this morning, or rather saw a story about them. Pretty phenomenal, less than an inch thick (of course, the PowerBook G4 I’m typing this on isn’t much thicker than that, either, and it has everything on it).

I use what the paper gives me to use.

By Shaun

January 16, 2008 12:52 PM | Link to this

RBI guys are not secondary to Shaun. RBI guys simply don’t exist to Shaun.

I’m not sure what you mean by that. My point is you put a guy in one lineup, he may drive in 100 runs and in another lineup he may drive in 50. If you put him in the good lineup, he drives in 100 runs, he’s all the sudden an RBI guy. You put him in the bad lineup, low in the order and he only drives in 50 runs, all the sudden he’s not an RBI guy.

Git ‘em on, git ‘em over, git ‘em in,

Maybe you should read this:

http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/ops-for-the-masses/

You’ll see that the correlation coefficient between runs and OBP, 2000-2004 is .91. (Perfect correlation is 1, or -1 for inverse.)

So OBP had a 91 percent correlation with runs in 2000-2004.

You’ll also see that OPS for OPS it is 95.5 percent.

For the most basic Runs Created formula, it’s 95.8 percent.

By Shaun

January 16, 2008 1:02 PM | Link to this

Here are some correlation coefficients to Runs, 2000-2004:

BB - .59

HR - .719

AVG - .843

OBP - .91

SLG - .913

OPS - .955

Basic Runs Created formula - .958

OPS with OBP x 1.8 - .959

More advanced Runs Created - .964

There you have it. There for all to see. Quite obvious.

By TennesseePaul

January 16, 2008 1:02 PM | Link to this

DAP: I’d agree with that assessment. Without knowing what possible trade opportunities are, or will be, available, I’d agree that Thorman, Boyer and Bennett would make the team. I hope Aybar is on the team as well instead of Prado. Aybar would make the bench pretty potent with the bat, speed, on base skills and infield utility. Pena has a lot of work cut out for him this spring in fighting for a job to play along side his childhood friend Escobar. JoJo needs a lot more time down on the Farm. And if Jair is the next coming, I’d rather have him on the farm sharpening his axe than up in the majors sitting in a pen. It seems that recently we’ve rushed a lot of young pitchers to the majors before they were ready. I’d hate to think of doing that with the prized and lauded Jair Jurrjens. If he is going to be as good as they say then starting him in AAA shouldn’t hurt him. If the team needs him by July then they can always call him up. And I’d be more relaxed if there is greater distance between the major league roster and JoJo Reyes this coming season. Of course, this is placing hope that Hampton will actually throw a pitch for the Braves this year…

By Overlord

January 16, 2008 1:09 PM | Link to this

DOB i think the is not about if kj or yunel are good leadoff hitters, as i see it, yunel is simply a better option for #2 spot. Or do you think kj is a better option than yunel for #2 spot?

By Random

January 16, 2008 1:11 PM | Link to this

doc:

Yeah, let’s agree to disagree up front — you’re right about the value of our time.

Fortunately for you, I have a rant already written and ready to go. ;-)

Hot on the heels of the release of the Mitchell report, here come all the self-righteous preachers, pundits and bloggers, some hypocritical, some not, beating their breasts, rending their garments, tearing their hair, and alternately hysterically accusing “users” and decrying “cheats”, mournfully bemoaning the “state of the game” and woefully wondering “what can be done to fix it”.

Well, it ain’t broke and it don’t need fixin’.

Most fans expect and demand that players do everything they can to make themselves better players — nutrition, training, practice, physical therapy, nutritional supplements, film, psychological therapy, listening to coaches, legal drugs, hypnosis, whatever it takes — where do you draw the line? Can one thing that helps you heal faster — physical therapy or diathermy — be more “moral” than another — HGH? Can one thing that makes you stronger, or faster, or better looking — flexibility, aerobic or weight training — be more “moral” than another — anabolic steroids? Are we all still Puritans? (“The Puritan work ethic is a Calvinist value emphasizing the necessity of constant labor in a person’s calling as a sign of personal salvation.” — wiki)

Some school marms bleat “what about the health effects, the damage to the body?” — adults can make adult decisions.

Some den mothers cry about an “uneven playing field” — it’s always been uneven. Wally Pipp and Lou Gehrig. Chipper Jones and Mike Squires. Albert Pujols and Craig Wilson.

“But what about the kids?!?” Kids should not be taking steroids — who is giving steroids to the kids? Not the athletes. And there is no valid argument based on athletes’ supposed “role model” responsibilities. They don’t exist, but if they did, never underestimate the value of a bad example, if you do choose to consider certain behavior “bad”.

“Cheating” in baseball — whatever shall we do?!?!? In a nutshell, get over it. Rather, get used to it and prepare for more.

By Bryan

January 16, 2008 1:14 PM | Link to this

Leg pulling … Mr. O’brien glad you take it well …

Hey, ween is playing at the tabernacle … if you ever want to see a band that Daybed and I both pull hard … you chance is close (two years they played on opening day in Atlanta and they blew the house down).

A live ween show is one of the best live shows in rock today (check the live in chicago dvd for reference).

By Robert (Chipper Is The Best)

January 16, 2008 1:16 PM | Link to this

10Paul, I’m in agreement about Aybar. If he is right, he definitely is a big plus to have on the team. He has a great bat with decent speed and good plate discipline. He can also play solid defense.

I think Prado along with Thorman and B. Pena are on the trading block and could actually bring that one piece in a trade that could make the difference. The Braves are in a better position with Prado than the other two because Prado still has an option. With Thorman and Pena the Braves will either have to put them on the roster or release them. That could make a trade difficult.

By Robert (Chipper Is The Best)

January 16, 2008 1:17 PM | Link to this

10Paul, I’m in agreement about Aybar. If he is right, he definitely is a big plus to have on the team. He has a great bat with decent speed and good plate discipline. He can also play solid defense.

I think Prado along with Thorman and B. Pena are on the trading block and could actually bring that one piece in a trade that could make the difference. The Braves are in a better position with Prado than the other two because Prado still has an option. With Thorman and Pena the Braves will either have to put them on the roster or release them. That could make a trade difficult.

By nOLIE

January 16, 2008 1:19 PM | Link to this

Nollie, that is not proof at all of a strong correlation between OBP and runs scored. For there to be a strong correlation, it would have to be as close to one to one as possible.GEO

Bull. that would be a perfect correation if it was one. there are all degrees of correlation some are causal some aren’t and the four years worth of examples that I cited show a high positive degree to anyone who has ever taken a stat course or more. There are way too many variable in the game of baseball to ever approach a perfect correlation. anything above or below .5 shows some degree and the examples I cited are 18 out of 23 thats better than .75 and definitely indicates a positive relationship of some sort. They are also fairly high at the lower levels. Teams with the very lowest OBP tend to have the lowest # of runs scored. My original statement was that teams that place at the top of the league in OBP are likely to be at the top of the league in RS and I’ve shown that to be true. I’m not a compulsively competitive person who is into contention for contention’s sake so pardon me if I pass on the rest of this foolishness.

By Patterson Hood

January 16, 2008 1:19 PM | Link to this

DOB, thanks for mentioning the upcoming DBT and Whigs album releases. Please favor us denizens with CD reviews ASAP next week! And even though these guys are not local, don’t forget the North Mississippi Allstars!

By Josh

January 16, 2008 1:22 PM | Link to this

DOB I am bored, waiting for my next class to start and I’ve been prodding around the internet, looking up various Braves’ minor league numbers on the baseball cube. I came across Kelly Johnson’s page that says he pitched 4 innings for Richmond in 2006. I don’t know if it’s an error or if he really did pitch a few innings, but I just found it interesting and wondered if you knew anything about it?

By TennesseePaul

January 16, 2008 1:23 PM | Link to this

You’ll also see that OPS for OPS it is 95.5 percent.

So OPS correlate to itself only 95.5% of the time? What happens the other 4.5% of the time? Does it suddenly correlate with whale migration? Statiticians are baffled.

By nOLIE

January 16, 2008 1:29 PM | Link to this

You’ll see that the correlation coefficient between runs and OBP, 2000-2004 is .91. (Perfect correlation is 1, or -1 for inverse.)Shaun

Thanks for the link to that article Shaun. Of course , none of that proves anything to a person with a closed mind, does it?

By ncscoots

January 16, 2008 1:33 PM | Link to this

Does [OPS] suddenly correlate with whale migration?

Only if park-adjusted.

By Git 'em on, git 'em over, git 'em in

January 16, 2008 1:38 PM | Link to this

But OBP is a better way to tell how good a player is, because he is able to get on base to create runs to be scored.

Thank you, neophyte. Shaun’s young padawan is learning very well. Unfortunately, he thinks by becoming the parakeet on the shoulder of the parrot that he is making an attack on Francouer in defense of McCann. Problem is McCann is not exactly an OBP machine. McCann’s OBP is even worse because he can’t run. And that’s why barely ever scores despite batting fifth and sixth so often.

BTW, Rob Neyer just called. He says to ask, Nollie, want a cracker?

By Shaun

January 16, 2008 1:40 PM | Link to this

“You’ll also see that OPS for OPS it is 95.5 percent” should have read:

You’ll also see that the correlation between OPS and Runs is 95.5 percent.

By Shaun

January 16, 2008 1:42 PM | Link to this

Josh, if I’m not mistaken, I think Kelly Johnson was drafted as a pitcher. I’m not sure though.

By ncscoots

January 16, 2008 1:47 PM | Link to this

Fellas, as denizens well-grounded in the complexities of statistical science, I’m sure you know that a high coefficient of correlation is not prima facie evidence of causality. In some of the posts above, you seem to be making a case for the reverse. I don’t believe that is the intent, is it?

By Shaun

January 16, 2008 1:50 PM | Link to this

nOLIE, don’t you know that if the correlation isn’t a perfect 100 percent, that many on here think it should be ignored? A 20 percent correlation is the same as a 95 percent correlation to some folks on here.

By Random

January 16, 2008 1:52 PM | Link to this

flange1: The guys I am talking about are S. Thorman, W. Aybar, B. Pena, G. Blanco, B Boyer, T. Yates, J. Bennett.

Like DAP mentioned, Blanco still has minor league options. So also, I believe, does Yates. But Royce Ring, however, is out of options, making a total of six, per DOB.

Unless some team blows ‘em away with a luscious trade proposal, I think Thorman will make the 25, along with Boyer, Ring and Bennett. Pena seems vulnerable, and they just might be able to slip Aybar through waivers what with his recent “difficulties”.

I think both of the latter decisions (actually, I guess, all of them) will be based on ST performance.

Don’t totally agree with either you or DAP that it would be more difficult to trade them if the Braves are seen as “desperate” because other teams know the players are out of options. That would be true if it was known that only one team was interested in claiming one of them off waivers.

If two or more teams had (or were thought to have) interest in a player, the Braves could easily work a trade with the team that would be claiming second or lower (based on W-L record last year).

And I think all six of the players mentioned are good enough to attract more than one team’s interest.

(DAPs “best bet” seems pretty far-fetched and unlikely to me.)

By DAP

January 16, 2008 1:56 PM | Link to this

Robert(Chippe is the Best) think Prado along with Thorman and B. Pena are on the trading block and could actually bring that one piece in a trade that could make the difference.

in your opinion, whats the one piece? i dont think we could get a good starter for those guys. im thinking all we can hope for is some relievers. do you think maybe we can get better banch guys for them than they are themselves? just wondering what you think the one final peice is. i dont think i know what it is.

By Jon

January 16, 2008 2:01 PM | Link to this

Hey Dave! I know you have probably been asked this a million times, but here goes a million and one. :) Have you heard any inkling of how Mike Hampton is doing, just through the grapevine or maybe Wren. Just curious to see if his leg was feeling better or whatnot. Thanks Dave.

By The Moral Compass

January 16, 2008 2:02 PM | Link to this

Could the same person who wrote this:

But heh some people play poker without knowing the odds too so whatever floats your boat. BTW I always let those guys sit into my games.

Actually accuse someone of being this:

Rather pretentious and pompous if so.

By Shaun

January 16, 2008 2:05 PM | Link to this

ncscoots, I think most of us probably realize that correlation doesn’t equal causation. But when you consider the fact that a low OBP is inversely correlated to Runs Scored and the OBP rankings usually match up fairly well with the runs scored rankings, that’s a solid indicator of causation. Plus there’s the fact that OBP measures baserunners and out-avoidance and, by using some basic reasoning skills, it seems more baserunners and a lower out rate means more scoring opportunities; there’s a pretty good indication that in this case correlation probably means causation.

By doc

January 16, 2008 2:10 PM | Link to this

thanks random, still think the point i was making is more about the lawmakers themselves and how silly they for the most part look. the feds will ultimately have their way as it involves a restricted drug and baseball will have to toe the line a bit better in spite of the folly of congress and its grandstanding. it was still very good theatre the last time as palmeiro pointed, sosa went mute, mcguire cried, shilling admonished, selig mumbled, fehr looked ghostly and canseco of all people was the most truthful and believable.

By Robert (Chipper Is The Best)

January 16, 2008 2:14 PM | Link to this

DAP, what I meant was that it could be a reliever or a bench/role player that gets the team over the top. Sometimes it isn’t the “stars” that win you titles. Look at the Red Sox this past World Series. It wasn’t Manny or Big Papi who was the start but Dustin Pedora and Jon Lester. You just never know.

By DAP

January 16, 2008 2:15 PM | Link to this

random thats for the clarification on the trade possibilities. in any senerio though, its correct to say that we have to trade them to a team who can put them on the 25-man right away, correct? so for pena, find a team that needs a catcher or a backup, for thorman someone who needs a first baseman or a backup…and so on.

DAPs “best bet” seems pretty far-fetched and unlikely to me.

thats what i said, too.

By TennesseePaul

January 16, 2008 2:16 PM | Link to this

Fellas, as denizens well-grounded in the complexities of statistical science, I’m sure you know that a high coefficient of correlation is not prima facie evidence of causality. In some of the posts above, you seem to be making a case for the reverse. I don’t believe that is the intent, is it?

Scoots: You mean something like this or perhaps this?

By nOLIE

January 16, 2008 2:21 PM | Link to this

BTW, Rob Neyer just called. He says to ask, Nollie, want a cracker?GEO

LOL.

By TennesseePaul

January 16, 2008 2:22 PM | Link to this

It wasn’t Manny or Big Papi who was the start but Dustin Pedora and Jon Lester. You just never know.

I’d say that star Beckett had a pretty big hand in the matter. But I’d toss it to the whole team. They all performed well together making them one tough opponent to play.

By McFann

January 16, 2008 2:25 PM | Link to this

Git Em On

I was in NO WAY making an attack on Francoeur!! I didn’t even mention that guy!! What I’m typing is that OBP is a better way to judge a player’s strength, or what-have-you.

Get this straight, bub: I know Francoeur had a better OBP than McCann, I know he scored more runs!! I know his OPS was better (though McCann had the better SLG %, heh heh!) Francoeur had more hits, more at bats, more homers, more RBIs, more walks (believe it or not), more stolen bases, and waaaaaayyyy more strike outs!! But look, Francoeur only had one more homer and two more doubles in 138 more at bats than McCann. (who had 38 2Bs and 18 HRs in 504 ABs. Francoeur’s were 40, 19, 642) Huh, I guess that’s why McCann’s SLG % was 8 points higher than Francoeur’s.

By ncscoots

January 16, 2008 2:27 PM | Link to this

Shaun, I love ya, man, but you got to watch where you step, sometimes. Your error in this whole running OBP argument (and PCR cannot GET here soon enough) is the position that a single stat, and performance relevant to that stat, is a boolean equation for success. And, truhfully, your initial foray into the thread didn’t even start out that way. But Mr. On-Over-In baited you just enough to get you off the launch pad, and the rest is history, LOL.

OBP is not causal, it’s factorial. Leave your arguments at that, and they are unassailable. Exceed that premise, and they scatter to the wind.

By DAP

January 16, 2008 2:30 PM | Link to this

Robert(Chipper is the Best) thanx man, i get what your saying. i was just wondering what you thought was the missing piece. i personally think it could be a bullpen guy or a bench guy, but i think what would really put us over the top would be a really good pinch hitter. hopefully some of our bench guys can develop and be that this year.

im very excited and optimistic about 2008.

By nOLIE

January 16, 2008 2:31 PM | Link to this

Fellas, as denizens well-grounded in the complexities of statistical science, I’m sure you know that a high coefficient of correlation is not prima facie evidence of causality. In some of the posts above, you seem to be making a case for the reverse. I don’t believe that is the intent, is it?Scoots

I said earlier that it wasn’t necessarily causal,but it is a positive relationship and I do think it is to a fair extent. More opportunities and a high OBP team should continue its high OB during RISP situations too for the most part.As I said there is a higher correlation than with HR or SB and that was without seeing an article similar to the one Shaun cited. The two combined should be a distinct advantage, but of course there are so many factors that go into it. I continue to believe that developing a team with the highest possible OBP up and down the lineup is an effective way to put the odds of scoring a lot on your side.

By Oliver Stoned

January 16, 2008 2:31 PM | Link to this

Steroids to kids. How is that the fault of baseball players? Shouldn’t parents start looking in the mirror? Steroids are expensive. Believe you me. I’ve checked into it. Not cheap at all. Kids can’t afford roids unless their enabling parents are funding the use of roids by their spoiled children and then not monitoring what their spoiled kids are spending their money on.

Here’s a hint to the braindead parents: Your skinny little boy is given $100 by his parents. He wears cut off shorts everyday to show off his newfound massive thighs. He usually doesn’t wear a shirt because he has to show off his newfound muscular physique. If he does wear a shirt, it is a cheap wifebeater because again he wants to show the world how sexy he thinks he is. So, he’s not spending his money on clothes because he doesn’t like to wear any. He never goes out because he is in the basement all day, grunting and lifting like a maniac. So, if he never goes out, he is not spending his money on going out. He eats all of your food, so he’s not spending his $100 on food.

So, where is the money going dingbat parents? The most extravagent expense the kid probably has made with that $100 is the mirror he likes to use to stare at himself all day and night.

Oh, the irony. The kid stares long and hard at himself in the mirror all day when the parents should be the ones staring long and hard in the mirror at themselves all day. Are parents so dumb they can’t figure out where the $100 went?

And enough already with that Hooton family. Why does Congress and dopey Mitchell keep marching those parents out? The kid committed suicide because Mark McGwire made him take roids? Gimme a break. The kid probably committed suicide because he was predisposed to doing so because he had low self esteem just like he started doing steroids because he was predisposed to doing so because he had low self esteem.

Is it too much for people to ask those simple minded Hootons to look long and hard in the mirror and wonder what really caused their son to kill himself? Could it be the very thing that made him take roids in the first place? Could it be he was genetically predisposed in his brain chemistry? Or it could it be poor raising and poor parenting that caused the kid to have low self esteem?

Why look in the mirror and blame yourself for your failures as a parent when you can blame Mark McGwire?

I, for one, am sick and tired of them dragging their son’s casket all over the country, desperately using their son for attention and self-serving purposes.

THIS JUST IN: Frances Bean blames Kurt’s suicide on Alvin Davis and Ken Griffey, Jr. She says Kurt just never felt he could compare to a true Seattle great like Alvin Davis as a child. It was tough enough for Kurt growing up in Washington, dreaming of becoming a baseball player, comparing himself to the great Alvin Davis. Caused alot of self esteem issues for poor Cobain. He had tried really hard to be a baseball player after being inspired by Alvin Davis but he just wasn’t good enough.

But when Griffey came along, all hope was lost for Kurt. He could never measure up. When he sensed that Griffey was gonna break out in a big way in April of 1994, he did himself in, saying he couldn’t fake it anymore, meaning he couldn’t fake being a baseball player who could compete with the great Griffey. Yes, Frances Bean refuses to blame her mother. That would require peeks at the mirror. When all else fails, blame it on a ballplayer or sex, drugs, and rock and roll.

In other news, Billy Corrigan has remained well adjusted despite his baseball dreams being dashed as a teen.

As for those pesky correlation afficianados, as I said in one of my movies, Lincoln had a secretary named Kennedy, and Kennedy had a secretary named Lincoln. Strong correlation there between the two names. Not so sure about the causation of their assassinations however.

By DAP

January 16, 2008 2:34 PM | Link to this

random meant to say thanx for the clarification.

By ncscoots

January 16, 2008 2:42 PM | Link to this

TPaul, you are a Web-searching monster, my man, LOL. I find a high correlation with blog humor and TennPaul posts. :-)

Park-adjusted, of course.

By Shaun

January 16, 2008 2:45 PM | Link to this

ncscoots, yeah, how many times do I have to say it: on-base ability is very important to run creation but there are also other things that are important. And in no way I’m saying OBP is the only stat anyone should pay attention to. I’ve repeatedly said this but everyone ignores that. The reason I’m discussing it is because there are some that want to disregard OBP, when it clearly is very important in terms of offensive production.

By TennesseePaul

January 16, 2008 2:57 PM | Link to this

Scoots: I find a high correlation with blog humor and TennPaul
An example of “the basic fallacy in human critical thinking” I suppose. Other factors like a sudden influx of hydroxal groups also influence the posts. But not so much today. Mainly a break from searches on other projects which tend to over lap this topic. Whether this is coincidence of correllation or not I have not yet concluded.

By Shaun

January 16, 2008 2:59 PM | Link to this

OBP is not causal, it’s factorial. Leave your arguments at that, and they are unassailable. Exceed that premise, and they scatter to the wind.

You are correct. Causation is difficult, if not impossible, to prove with anything. And again with a little reasoning, it’s safe to say that building a lineup full of guys with great on-base ability is going to cause the team to score a lot of runs.

By ncscoots

January 16, 2008 3:06 PM | Link to this

And in no way I’m saying OBP is the only stat anyone should pay attention to.

And, yet, I’m betting many here perceive that very thing to be your position.

And, in baseball, there are enough outliers in the data to cause many to simply ignore the bell curve altogether. :-) Khalil Greene had an absolutely horrendous OBP last year…with 25+ HR and nearly 100 RBI. Most fans would consider that a productive offensive year, OBP be damned.

Anyway, I’ve been pedantic enough today, LOL. I’ve already used “prima facie”, can “sine qua non” be far behind? Think I’ll quit before the location of my head starts making me reach rearward.

By David O'Brien

January 16, 2008 3:13 PM | Link to this

Jon, I asked Wren about Hampton at FanFest (Hampton wasn’t there). He said his rehab’s gone smoothly, no setbacks. Barring further injury, he’ll be ready for spring training.

By Random

January 16, 2008 3:17 PM | Link to this

DAP—

Yep, if a team claims a player off waivers, they’ve got to put ‘im on their 25.

And you’re wetcome.

By Jared

January 16, 2008 3:20 PM | Link to this

Stats strictly as leadoff men:

YUNEL: .351 (53-for-151) with 15 doubles, two homers, 16 RBI, 10 walks, 22 K, .400 OBP, .490 slugging

KELLY: .268 (82-for-306) with 14 doubles, 6 triples, 9 homers, 40 RBI, 49 walks, 63 K, .372 OBP, .441 slugging.

Two pretty damn good options, if you ask me.

The difference of course being that Kelly Johnson ledoff against everyone from the start of the season till around July….while Escobar hit leadoff usually only against lefthanded pitchers; against whom Escobar fares much better if you look at the splits.

By BT

January 16, 2008 3:21 PM | Link to this

DOB,

Is their anyway that comments with the term “OPS” be immediately deleted for a few days. I am really sick of this argument!

By Jon

January 16, 2008 3:21 PM | Link to this

Great News! So glad to hear that. With a healthy Hampton possibly pitching like he did before he had that first surgery, Smoltz, Huddy and Glavine, the Braves have to have one of the deepest rotations in all of baseball. Thanks for the update Dave, that is good to hear. Can’t wait for Spring Training, my wife is in disbelief that its so close already, lol.

By Robert (Chipper Is The Best)

January 16, 2008 3:21 PM | Link to this

DOB, I hope that is the case but you’ll excuse me if I don’t hold my breath on that.

By Random

January 16, 2008 3:29 PM | Link to this

McFann—

Are you up there in your room again judging Mcmann’s what-have-you?

What have we told you about that, girl?!? You’ll go blind . . . . . . . reading all those numbers.

By Shaun

January 16, 2008 3:29 PM | Link to this

ncscoots, I would hope most fans realize that Khalil Greene had a very good SLG which helped him out but realize he wasn’t quite as productive as his HR and RBI total indicate because 25 HR in 659 plate appearances is not a huge contribution to the team; not saying they don’t count but those 25 HR don’t mean he was productive. As far as RBI, I hope fans realize that he hit in a solid lineup (101 team OPS+) which gave him a high number of RBI chances; i.e., his teammates getting on ahead of him caused the high RBI total more than anything Greene did.

Of course, I know a lot of you will now accuse me of over complicating and over-analyzing Greene’s season but if I had just said Greene wasn’t productive because of his low OBP, you would have criticized me for being too simple and only paying attention to one stat. There is just no way to win.

By Random

January 16, 2008 3:34 PM | Link to this

Jared—

Good eye, good pick!

By Shaun

January 16, 2008 3:41 PM | Link to this

ncscoots, another way to look at it is Greene made 479 outs last season. That’s almost 160 scoreless innings of offense Greene alone was responsible for; significantly over an inning per game he played. He made an out about 71 percent of the time he came to the plate. How could that be a productive season?

By Random

January 16, 2008 4:12 PM | Link to this

DAP:

Oh, sure — I knew that.

You’xe wexcome.

By David O'Brien

January 16, 2008 4:22 PM | Link to this

OK, that didn’t work when I posted it, so I’m takingit down. Maybe fix it later.

By TennesseePaul

January 16, 2008 4:23 PM | Link to this

ncscoots, another way to look at it is Greene made 479 outs last season. That’s almost 160 scoreless innings of offense Greene alone was responsible for; significantly over an inning per game he played. He made an out about 71 percent of the time he came to the plate.

Is this park adjusted?

By Random

January 16, 2008 4:30 PM | Link to this

doc—

No, no — thank you.

And thank you very much for not writing “tow the line”.

What are you, literate or sump’in’?

By AdirondackDave

January 16, 2008 4:37 PM | Link to this

DOB — Thanks for the update on Hampton. That sounds like good news for sure. Question.. what does rehabing really mean in general and in Hampton’s situation? Is it a general conditioning program or does it mean he’s building up arm strength culminating in throwing full bore toward the end? I’m stoked about the rotation and club prospects if he manages to give the Braves 25+ starts.

By McFann

January 16, 2008 4:37 PM | Link to this

I like reading numbers, Random. It’s fun. If I didn’t like it, I wouldn’t be as in to baseball. I love math (well, maybe not love…there’s lots of things I like better, such as…er…well…) As a matter of fact, I have most of Macster’s splits or “what-have-you” up in my room.

I won’t go blind…Course, I do wear reading glasses…

By JC FROM UT

January 16, 2008 4:41 PM | Link to this

DOB: Earlier this winter John Smolts made some kind of remark about a 6 man rotaion. Has there been any more talk about that or is that just something that will never happen. With the age and/or health of some members of the rotaion and with a “sort of” surpluss of starters it kind of makes sense. What is your opinion?

By Coach (Lets Go Braves in 2008)

January 16, 2008 4:41 PM | Link to this

Random , thanks for the link. That article really is a good read. I’ve been doing research ever since the Mitchell report came out and it’s like following a trail of bread crumbs.

Baseball has been juiced for the better part of the past quarter century. The number and scope of players involved has barely scratched the surface so far.

As they say , it’s going to get a lot worse before it gets better.

By Shaun

January 16, 2008 4:42 PM | Link to this

TennesseePaul, good point. That makes Greene’s season look a little better. But his road OBP was still only 10th out of the 17 SS with at least 300 road plate appearances.

By TennesseePaul

January 16, 2008 4:44 PM | Link to this

DOB: Perhaps this link will do. It’s the official Braves MLB website press release you just posted…

By TennesseePaul

January 16, 2008 4:49 PM | Link to this

Atlanta Braves hold open auditions for game entertainment team

WHAT:
The Braves will host open auditions for members of their game entertainment team, including:

Tomahawk Team
— Weds. Jan. 23 and Thurs. Jan. 24, 5-8 p.m.
The Braves are looking for high-energy, spirited individuals, with the ability to engage fans, work within a family environment, and perform in front of large crowds. The Braves Tomahawk Team performs at all home games and many events throughout the community.

Game Entertainment Hosts88
— **Monday Jan. 28 and Tues. Jan. 29, 5-7 p.m.
The Braves engaging Game Entertainment Hosts must have the ability to interact with fans in the stands and in Fan Plaza. Hosts must be comfortable performing in the spotlight in front of thousands of Braves fans at Turner Field. Previous emcee experience is preferred.

Heavy Hitters
— Weds. Jan. 30 and Thurs. Jan. 31, 5-7:30 p.m.
The Braves electrifying Heavy Hitters drum line performs before, during, and after Braves games at Turner Field. The Braves are looking for musicians with confidence and charisma, a flexible schedule, and the ability to work games in their entirety.

WHERE:
Turner Field - Enter through the Turner Field 755 Club Lobby, off of Ralph David Abernathy Blvd. Free parking available across the street in the Green Lot

WHEN:
Tomahawk Team - Wednesday, Jan. 23 and Thursday, Jan. 24, 5-8 p.m.

Game Entertainment Host - Monday, Jan. 28 and Tuesday, Jan. 29, 5-7 p.m.

Heavy Hitters - Wednesday, Jan. 30 and Thursday, Jan. 31, 5-7:30 p.m.

Please call or email to set up a specific audition time.

Walk ups will be auditioned on a first come first serve basis.

For more information call 404-614-2441, visit www.Braves.com/auditions or email Braves.Entertainment@braves.com

By doc

January 16, 2008 5:00 PM | Link to this

random, i am sump’in’; at least my mother claimed me most days. now that she is gone it might take a few days to get it clarified.

DOB, visited your haunts today in the toco area, picked up some music and left you a package for the road trip coming up.

By Braveheart

January 16, 2008 5:09 PM | Link to this

Frank Wren is about to be interviewed on 680 the Fan for those out of towners who haven’t had a chance to hear him. You can stream it at 680thefan.com

By flange1

January 16, 2008 5:14 PM | Link to this

IT IS SNOWING IN ATLANTA!!!!!

By BravesFanChris23

January 16, 2008 6:29 PM | Link to this

DOB: I guess its not really a secret that perhaps Frank is still looking for more bullpen help, specifically another lefty. My question is….

What are the chances that Taylor Tankersley of Marlins would be available? He has given Braves hitters trouble in the past, so I guess I would say go with the “you can’t beat them, acquire them” method.

If not, who would you think would be a target?

By TennesseePaul

January 16, 2008 6:39 PM | Link to this

This should clear things up a bit…

By Braveheart

January 16, 2008 7:01 PM | Link to this

Frank Wren is about to be interviewed on 680 the Fan for those out of towners who haven’t had a chance to hear him. You can stream it at 680thefan.com

By Jared

January 16, 2008 7:03 PM | Link to this

The Braves keep saying they still want another veteran relief pitcher to go with Manny Ascosta and likely primary set-up man Peter Moylan, both rookies last season. I thought it would be Fuentes, but I don’t think the Braves have the money any longer after the Kotsay trade.

By doc

January 16, 2008 7:27 PM | Link to this

tp that was cool.

By Overlord

January 16, 2008 7:53 PM | Link to this

Z Z Z Z Z Z Z Z

By Steve McP

January 16, 2008 8:02 PM | Link to this

10P - just took your test, unfortunately as a Brit many of the answers were not always relevant to me. Aunt for instance rhymes with can’t in my vocabulary.

The good news is that I still came in as pretty much a southerner. This is good news as I am now exiled in the mountains of NC where the war of northern aggression is still relevant to many people.

By TennesseePaul

January 16, 2008 8:33 PM | Link to this

Aunt for instance rhymes with can’t in my vocabulary

Which rhymes with ant… Perhaps I’m missing the accent. Is that what the ’ is in british, an accent mark?

By TennesseePaul

January 16, 2008 8:42 PM | Link to this

Speaking of passing team physicals, gotta think this was overlooked somehow…

Schmidt, who signed a three-year, $47 million contract with the Dodgers last winter, was 1-4 with a 6.31 ERA after 6 starts before undergoing surgery June 20 to repair an inflamed bursa, a torn labrum and a frayed biceps tendon in his right shoulder.

By Random

January 16, 2008 9:14 PM | Link to this

DAP—

My apologies — this didn’t really address your question, did it?

I think you’re right, but I’m not sure. I don’t see what would prevent a team from waiving a player they just traded for, but I also don’t see any likely reason that they would.

But they definitely could not option him to the minors, since the player is out of minor league options. That’s probably what you were wondering about, huh.

I’m sure someone will let us know if I’m wrong. ;-|

By rich brave

January 16, 2008 9:30 PM | Link to this

Steve McP:

Aunt pronounced Ant. A small insect, right? And Pecan pronounced Pee-can which is ceramic and kept under the bed at night.

It got pretty nasty up that way during the War of Northern Aggression. Half the people supported either side. See: “Cold Mountain” or my favorite “Pharoah’s Army” and the famous folk song “Tom Dooley”. Dula really existed and burned up a bunch of his girlfriend’s family in a locked cabin.

By rich brave

January 16, 2008 9:32 PM | Link to this

FLANGE 1:

Be thankful for the precipitation baby!!

By Random

January 16, 2008 9:43 PM | Link to this

TennPaul—

Dangitall, I’m not pure — only 91% Dixie.

I blame my father, reared in PA before relocating to east TN where he (eventually) raised me.

(There should have been a none of the above choice for the sub/hoagie question — I never even saw one before I came to Atlanta.)

By Random

January 16, 2008 9:57 PM | Link to this

Ah, Little Flower — so charmingly literal-minded.

We really should introduce you to that nice young chrisklob.

By Yankee Dawg

January 16, 2008 10:20 PM | Link to this

OK DOB, I get it now. Yes, I missed the emphesis.

So where do you think Kotsay will bat, and if he has a 350 OBP does that warrant hitting 2nd?

Any thoughts about Yunels lack of HR power, granted he’s a SS, but it feels like HR power is missing from his game, kinda belliardesque?

Bruce Cockburn?

thanks DOB, Yankee Dawg meet us at Brewsters Garage in NYC on game days.

By rich brave

January 16, 2008 10:27 PM | Link to this

RANDOM:

You sir are a gentleman and a scholar. Using reared in the proper context. You rear children and raise kids my sainted mother always said.

By David O'Brien

January 17, 2008 1:48 AM | Link to this

TennPaul, thanks much for putting up that link….

Got snow in my yard right now. That’s only about the third or fourth time in my six years in Atlanta….

Saw the great Philip Seymour Hoffman in another terrific part tonight: “The Savages.” Very good movie, with him and Laura Linney both turning in Oscar-worthy performances….

Dawg: Bruce Cockburn’s a strong, criminally underappreciated songwriter. Man says what’s on his mind. Love it. Got a ton of his albums and CDs (the Canadian has been a songwriting horse, churning ‘em out for a looong time).

By David O'Brien

January 17, 2008 1:49 AM | Link to this

Doc, thanks much, whatever it is. I’d planned to go by Ella Guru tomorrow to see Don anyway.

By Metropolitan Man

January 17, 2008 4:43 AM | Link to this

Wow, so now when Chumper rehabs during the season , all he has to do is go to Gwinnett???? Smart move braves guys, saving money on gas, players, coaches, bats, balls, sunflower seeds, ect….. No more METS chokes jokes or pictures!!!! Have you guys forgeotten about the team that choked 13 years out of 14, I didnt. Lets see who has some choking left in them for 08.
Kotsay, A. Jones replacement best years was 04’, and 05’ which produced 15 hr and no more than 82 rbi;s. Good numbers but they are a decline in what you were used to getting out of that position with the excecption of 07. Now Aybar can match some of Renteria’s numbers in time but its still a decline and know that those numbers will be missed. Now with that said your best bet would be to go back to pitching, pitching, and pitching because that is the only area you may have and edge in on paper before the season starts. As long as Mcdowell and Booby run things, teams in the NL east have a chance. Bottom line is the 3 big dogs in the NL east are all unbalanced, leaving a team like the NATS to have fun playing pressureless baseball. Every team in the NL east has traded or swapped players and coaches. Will any team be able to suprise the other in 08??

By Nolie

January 17, 2008 4:46 AM | Link to this

OBP is not causal, it’s factorialSCOOTS

That’s one take on it but no way can you prove that. Even the use of Occam’s Razor would indicate that it is likely causal, since it would take a heapa explaining away 91% relationship between these factors and there not being a cause & effect relationship where it takes only the simple explanation that more opportunities equals greater likelihood of success especially considering that such a team would likely continue to produce high on base success(which after all is mostly hits,we ain’t talking BB’s walk rates) under RISP conditions as well. And why the extreme reluctance here to accept that high OBP has a causal effect(though nobody is claiming it’s the only cause)? Heck it’s not a new idea that originated with James or the sabergeeks. 50 years ago in high school stats class we spent most all our time studying baseball stats and it was obvious then that teams that had a buncha hitters who got a lot of hits and a lot of walks up and down the lineup scored more runs most of the time. We didn’t call it OBP in fact we used adding totals at the time and not percentages, but we still were aware of it. I’m not a disciple of James though I’ve read some of his early stuff and I’ve read three Neyer articles in my entire life and one of them had nothing to do with stats. I’ve read enough to be aware of current thinking re PECOTA, VORP and WinShares but don’t find their arguments compelling. I simply am surprised with the adamant reaction to what is both stats and common sense as far as team OBP and OPS. Oh well, I guess I’ll get over it…just hope it doesn’t do irreparable harm to my psyche.

By ncscoots

January 17, 2008 6:48 AM | Link to this

nolie, I’m reluctant to respond to your last, as even I am pretty bored with the whole OBP thread, LOL. But, I think you have mischaracterized some of what I was saying. Hey, I’m the guy here who has always preached hit the ball hard or, failing that, don’t make an out. I’m an OBP fan :-).

Perhaps it’s just the degree of causality that is the nit to be picked. I’m always leery when someone posits that one stat is more important, or more informative, or more relevant, etc. That smacks of discarding variables in the equation, hardly a proper analytical method.

We need a double-blind study to resolve this to satisfaction, LOL. Since we’re unlikely to get one, let’s agree that having more men on base is better than having fewer, whaddyasay?

By doc

January 17, 2008 6:54 AM | Link to this

“pacing the cage” from bruce cockburn is one of the best unknown songs ever written and one that stops me cold each time i hear it from the very first time riding through the rio grande gorge on my way to taos for a winter vacation. one of the type of songs where you remember the first time it was heard. a huge talent and songwriter of social relevance. very complex imagery in his words … powerful.

david don’t expect black crows. heh heh

don is a really good guy; enjoyed the first time there.

By doc

January 17, 2008 7:46 AM | Link to this

interesting to listen to marion jones reflect back on her repeated and passionate cries of innocence on using the clear which she knew was an illegal substance. she was very believable until she could no longer manipulate and maneuver to steer clear of the truth. said she was protecting her family. wonder if roger and his lawyer were watching?

hopefully, roger hasnt already talked to a fed with his story without telling the truth. one doesnt have to be under oath to be put in jail if you lie to a fed as tejeda is about to learn the hard way.

random, that is where one has to “toe the line” so to speak. agree?

does anyone get the feeling that roger may be trying to protect more than himself on what he knows? do we continue to think all these guys are operating in a vacuum of their own making? cant you hear it , “now roger, tell us of all you know about taking these products b-12 and lidocaine … anyone else you know taking them in the same form?”, wink,wink.

By BB FAN

January 17, 2008 9:07 AM | Link to this

Metropolitan Man, You said, “Have you guys forgeotten about the team that choked 13 years out of 14, I didnt.”

Then I guess you also remember that the Mets were usually no where in contention during those 14 years.

So just because a team makes the playoffs but doesn’t win the World Series, it makes them “choke” artists? So wouldn’t that mean there are 7 “choke” artists each year?

What does that say for all of the non-playoff teams then? They must be worst than “choke” artists, right?

Does the fact that the Mets only made the playoffs 2 out of 14 years excuse them from being “choke” artists?

I remember the Mets buying many players during those 14 years in hopes of making the playoffs. I bet they would have been happy to “choke” in the NLCS or the WS like the Braves.

By Random

January 17, 2008 9:08 AM | Link to this

doc: random, that is where one has to “toe the line” so to speak. agree?

I definitely agree — can’t lie to the Feds or to Congress, oath or no oath. (Scooter’s still on the fence about it, though.)

And now for something completely different.

From Gimme 5 (Mark Kotsay):

4. His wife, Jamie, with whom he has two young daughters and an infant son, was No. 9 on CO-ED Magazine Online’s list of “Top 20 Sexiest Athlete Wives of 2007.”

For some reason, AJC failed to provide the link.

rich brave—

Thanks.

Hey, just give us the word and maybe some of us down here can start a lawsuit against the Gwinnett County commissioners, maybe throw a little sand in the gears of the R-Braves’ move.

By Random

January 17, 2008 9:29 AM | Link to this

Nolie: Even the use of Occam’s Razor would indicate that it is likely causal, since it would take a heapa explaining away 91% relationship between these factors

That is so cool — I’m 91% Dixie, I didn’t shave today, and I dressed causal because of the snow.

What are the odds? And tomorrow is causal Friday, the first or second day of the rest of my life! Woo-hoo!

By Shaun

January 17, 2008 9:35 AM | Link to this

ncscoots, I agree. I think the whole OBP discussion has become tiresome. And I really don’t think very many people think on-base ability is not very important to run scoring.

But I’ll add this because I think it’s important: If you were building a team and there was better than a 90 percent correlation between a stat and runs, would you really want to ignore it and assume that there is no causation there?

By BossLady

January 17, 2008 9:48 AM | Link to this

Where is everybody? Weather got you down?

By Robert (Chipper Is The Best)

January 17, 2008 9:53 AM | Link to this

I just read on pro sports daily rumors that the Braves are currently in talks with the Tampa Bay Devil Rays about a trade for Wily Aybar. I find this interesting. I wonder what the Rays could be offering the Braves in return.

DOB, have you heard anything about this?

I wouldn’t necessarily be against the trade if the Braves got something of quality in return. I really can’t see though what the Braves realistically could receive in return.

Very interesting.

By doc

January 17, 2008 9:54 AM | Link to this

random, you are so kind to provide the link.

the 680 guys asked him about his hot wife and he laughed and said maybe the reason they got rid of him in oakland was because she stayed pregnant the whole time he was there. he has three under the age of four with one in his lap as he was doing the interview. sounded like a pretty good guy and a team player who should fit well if he is healthy. with this being a contract year i doubt there will be any holding back on his part. maybe he wont press like our centerfielder did last year for his own contract renewal year.

By Shaun

January 17, 2008 10:01 AM | Link to this

Okay, one more thing for our friend, Get ‘Em On…:

…a mere 30% of teams [in 2002-2005], or 6 teams out of 20, who finished among the top 5 league leaders in sacrifice hits also managed to finish 15th or above in top runs scored totals. Only one team has who finished among the top 5 league leaders in sacrifice hits also managed to finish among the top 5 league leaders in runs scored, that team being the 2003 St. Louis Cardinals.

http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/story/2006/4/8/113847/6122

By TBrave

January 17, 2008 10:06 AM | Link to this

DOB any specific reason John Thomson was walking around FanFest this past weekend?

By Lew

January 17, 2008 10:28 AM | Link to this

MetroDude-Personal septic tan still backed up, apparently. Neighbors been complaining about the stench of your delusion yet?

Why don’t you go to the Mets’ MLB site and see what the fans and Beat Writer have to say about Omar’s mystifying lack of anything to improve the Mets. Fans are not happy and the Beat Writer is none too certain the Mets will mount much of an attack this year.

The Mets are old, injured, bereft of any pitching and from what I hear, may be hiring an orthopedic specialist to deal with all the chronic leg and foot problems. Rocking chairs have also been ordered for the clubhouse. Mets are going down MetroDude. Third place is optimistic-IF Pedro and El Duque can put up more than 120 Innings apiece. Maybe.

By DAP

January 17, 2008 10:33 AM | Link to this

good news for the mets. they are bringing back jose valentine now they will have 5 guys to back up 2nd. theyll be unstoppable!

By DAP

January 17, 2008 10:35 AM | Link to this

part of an article about sid bream yesterday:

[The Pirates announced their minor-league coaching staffs Tuesday, and most of the assignments are the same as 2007.

One notable exception is at short-season State College, where former Pirates first baseman and playoff antagonist Sid Bream has rejoined the organization.

Bream, the object of fans’ ire for scoring the winning run against the Pirates while playing for the Atlanta Braves in Game 7 of the 1992 National League playoffs, was hired as coach of the New York-Penn League entry. He played for the Pirates from 1985-90.](http://www.pittsburghlive.com/x/pittsburghtrib/sports/pirates/s_547597.html)

i dont like this. as far as im concerned, bream is OUR guy! im sure he will work for the braves at some point.

By TennesseePaul

January 17, 2008 10:39 AM | Link to this

So the Braves are talking to the Rays about a trade involving Aybar… This is a bummer. Perhaps they believe he will never come back to the same guy. Or mayb his substance abuse was something on the PED banned list. The idea of Marteen Prado on the team is just disappointing. If the trade happens I hope we get something good in return…

By Git 'em on, git 'em over, git 'em in

January 17, 2008 10:42 AM | Link to this

…a mere 30% of teams [in 2002-2005], or 6 teams out of 20, who finished among the top 5 league leaders in sacrifice hits also managed to finish 15th or above in top runs scored totals. Only one team has who finished among the top 5 league leaders in sacrifice hits also managed to finish among the top 5 league leaders in runs scored, that team being the 2003 St. Louis Cardinals.

Sac hits don’t cause low OBPs and runs scored totals.

Low OBPs and runs scored totals cause more sac hits.

By TennesseePaul

January 17, 2008 10:48 AM | Link to this

Random: Gotta say I’m even more impressed with Kotsay’s wife. She’s the only one on that list that didn’t come off as a complete and total slut.

By DAP

January 17, 2008 10:50 AM | Link to this

stark has a blog up on ESPN.com about Shortstops to build a franchise around. he limited the discussion to players under 25, and the talk is mostly about hanely ramirez and troy tulowitzki. which one of these guys would ya’ll rather have to build around?

By DAP

January 17, 2008 10:55 AM | Link to this

or as shaun might say…. sac flies dont score runners….runners score runners. :-)

By BB FAN

January 17, 2008 10:56 AM | Link to this

I would hate to see the Braves trade Willy Aybar too soon. The guy can hit…he hit .339 in Winter League after a year off. In 2006, he hit .313 with the Braves despite a wrist injury.

The Braves should probably wait until late Spring Training for Aybar to gain some value or maybe even make the team. He may be needed if Martin Prado has a horrible spring. I believe Prado still has options so he could start in Richmond if he needs to.

By Robert (Chipper Is The Best)

January 17, 2008 10:59 AM | Link to this

10Paul, I’m with you. I would rather have Aybar than Prado on the 25 man roster, but if the Braves can get something good in return than I wouldn’t be too dissapointed. I just can’t imagine what that would be. I would think somebody like Baldelli would net more than Aybar. Not to mention I would think the Rays would have to eat a good deal of that contract for the Braves to even consider the deal. I believe the Rays DFA’d Greg Norton so I don’t see him as an option.

Short of Scott Kamiz I don’t see any pitcher the Rays have that the Braves would want and Lord knows it would take a whole lot more than Aybar to net him.

It is all just a bit mystifying.

By McFann

January 17, 2008 10:59 AM | Link to this

Random

I wasn’t taking it literally when you said “You’ll go blind”, just playin’ along with ya. But I do like reading numbers.

10Paul

You’d rather have Aybar than Prado, eh? I cann almost see why…maybe…personally, I don’t care much for either one. But hopefully we’ll get something worth while in return anyway.

By Git 'em on, git 'em over, git 'em in

January 17, 2008 11:04 AM | Link to this

Even the use of Occam’s Razor would indicate that it is likely causal,

Nollie, that’s your problem right there. You are using a crappy razor. Gotta go with Gillette. As the commerical says, Gillette, it’s the best a man can get.

Your razor is stranding too many whiskers on your face.

Gillette gits ‘em on, gits ‘em over, and gits ‘em in.

By Robert (Chipper Is The Best)

January 17, 2008 11:07 AM | Link to this

DAP, no doubt I would rather build around Hanley Ramirez. I like Tulo but I think he looked a bit better in ‘07 than what he really is. That is not to say he isn’t the real thing. But, Ramirez has it all. He has speed, power, defense, and that “it” factor.

By TennesseePaul

January 17, 2008 11:08 AM | Link to this

Sac hits don’t cause low OBPs and runs scored totals

This is true. This event isn’t included in the OBP formula. It is touted that the OBP formula is an “out avoidance” formula but it doens’t include all plate appearances nor all outs. If you include total plate appearances and total results the OBP drops by about 2 to 5 points. Similarly SLG doesn’t include all bases obtained in all plate appearances. If this were done the SLG would be increased by about 60 points on average. These figures are based on 2007 results.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves in 2008)

January 17, 2008 11:18 AM | Link to this

If there is any truth to the Devil Rays rumor , the player might be J.P. Howell.

The Braves are still looking for another lefty to add in the bullpen.

The Braves drafted him back in 2001 in the second round. Howell went to college instead and eventually signed with the Royals after they drafted him in the 1st round of the 2004 draft.

By TennesseePaul

January 17, 2008 11:19 AM | Link to this

Even the use of Occam’s Razor would indicate that it is likely causal

So all else is equal in the state of baseball to be able to deduce that a high coefficient of corellation is in fact casaul? I’m not sure all else is equal on all these teams. There are just too many variables.
Like Scoots, I don’t disagree that a high OBP is something to strive for. But is is still merely one part of a complex game.

By Oliver Stoned

January 17, 2008 11:35 AM | Link to this

Hanley Ramirez is a horrible defender and won’t be playing short in 5 years. Tulo will be playing short for the next 10 to 12 years. Gotta go with Tulo although Ramirez is a far superior offensive player.

Trading Aybar will be very stupid. It would make the Edgar Renteria trade even worse. The Edgar trade was not the kind of move made by a contender. It was the move of a rebuilder. The Edgar trade only makes sense if Aybar and Infante are on the bench in the infield with Lillibridge to come up later in the season for additional support. Shortstop was not weakened by the Edgar trade. But the bench was. The loss of Yunel from the bench would not be as costly if Willy AND Omar are sitting there.

Martin Prado is okay but he will never be the kind of bench player Aybar, Infante, Betemit, and Yunel were/are. Let’s be real abut this, Prado stinks.

If Willy has conquered his injuries, depression and addiction, then he is a very key piece for next season.

Wren should not make the same mistakes Cox and JS always made: weak benches and pens.

When the lineups and rotations were strong, the BRaves could get away with weak benches and pens in the regular season. In the postseason, they blew it everytime with their inferior pen and bench. But now that the rotations and lineups are not as strong, their inferior benches and pens are killing them - although the pen was good last season.

By DAP

January 17, 2008 11:40 AM | Link to this

i really hope it isnt JP Howell. lookinga this stats, he isnt very good. maybe prado for him, since weve got to get SOMETHING for prado, but this guy gave up 69 hits and 45 runs in 51 innings last year. not good at all. numbers in previous season arent any better, and leftys and rightys hit him about the same. aybar for howell would be really stupid.

robert(CJIS) id take ramirez too.

By Josh H

January 17, 2008 11:54 AM | Link to this

Oliver Stoned:

I do agree, isn’t Aybar a switch hitter? That alone would prove his worth on the bench, and as someone said, he can hit at this level.

Disagree on the Renteria trade though. Agreed, that you don’t make that trade if you take a “win this year at all costs” model, but I don’t think it was made in a rebuilding sense. Escobar was very solid in his call up, and the guy waiting in his wings down at Richmond is pretty good in case of injury/poor performance. Had to secure a young hurler like Jair Jurjens who could possibly be #2 material.

Sucks to see him go, as Renteria was one of my favorite players on the team, but the trade made sense.

By Shaun

January 17, 2008 12:09 PM | Link to this

Sac hits don’t cause low OBPs and runs scored totals.

Where’s your evidence for this? No, it doesn’t cause low OBPs (it doesn’t help OBPs either) but it may cause low run totals.

Low OBPs and runs scored totals cause more sac hits.

And where’s the evidence for this? Seems to me, less baserunners would mean less sac opportunities and therefore fewer sac hits.

Problem is, when you sacrifice you are using up an out to advance a base; and in most cases it’s better to have an extra out than an extra base. Again, I’m not opposed to sacrifices in several instances (for example, when only one run can end and win the game or when the pitcher or very weak hitter is up) but in many cases it’s not a good strategy.

Teams don’t win by loading their lineup with good sacrificers. They win by loading their team with good on-base guys and sluggers. Teams are better off having a bunt specialist on the bench to come in and give them a sac bunt only when it’s useful, much like a pinch-runner (a la Dave Roberts, 2004).

TennesseePaul makes a great point that the realities of the game are complex; which is probably why these spirited arguments take place.

I think the point me and others are tying to make is that the correlation between runs and OBP, SLG and other things is way too strong to ignore. It’s not that we are trying to become enslaved by it but that the correlation is so strong, it’s is silly to think such stats aren’t vital to pay attention to if you want a better understanding of the game.

By DAP

January 17, 2008 12:23 PM | Link to this

i can see how the renteria deal could be looked at as a weak move. we traded from a position of strength for two guys that might nit even play for us this year at all. thats a rebuilding move. of course, since we had escobar, it was a special circumstance. also, before the move, did didnt have glavine yet so we needed starters.

i like the trade, but it was a rebuilding type of trade for a team that is a contender, so it did look a little strange. if we had traded for a top-notch closer, packaged him for a #1 or #2 starter, or got a slugging left fielder or something, it would have looked more like a trade a contender would make.

By David O'Brien

January 17, 2008 12:30 PM | Link to this

The Edgar trade was not the kind of move made by a contender. It was the move of a rebuilder.Oliver Stoned

Wrong, wrong, wrong.

Edgar is easily one of my favorite 10 players that I’ve covered in 15 years on pro sports beats. Easily. Can’t find a more professional guy, or a better team/clubhouse guy, and at his peak he was one of the finest all-around shortstops in the game.

That said, Edgar’s range isn’t what it was, and neither is his arm. He’s still above average in overall defense, but Escobar is superior in every way defensively, just needs to make all the routine plays the way Edgar did. Which Escobar will, once he plays there on a regular basis a while longer. He’s got a better arm than Edgar ever dreamed of having, and Edgar himself told me that. His range is probably better than Edgar’s ever was, too.

Offensively, he doesn’t have Edgar’s ability to hit the other way and move a runner over, and no one more unselfish than Edgar. But Escobar has more offensive potential, the ability to be a very special hitter and run-producer.

Escobar is no kid; he’s ready NOW, and to have not made that trade would have meant you’re either going to waste one of the peak career years (Escobar is 25) for a potential star shortstop. That, or have him play out of position at 2B and have to trade or bench another potential star hitter (Kelly Johnson; just look at his stats in his first season at a new position, while being moved around the batting order and moved to a platoon midway through the season to accomodate Escobar).

Braves had to do something. Couldn’t keep all three for two spots, not without stunting growth of either Escobar or Kelly. Also, I don’t think they would’ve had the money to sign Glavine if they hadn’t moved Renteria’s salary.

By Shaun

January 17, 2008 12:41 PM | Link to this

DAP, one thing about the Renteria trade, it probably went along way towards allowing the Braves to go after Glavine and trade for Kotsay, and may have freed up some money for Francoeur, Johnson and Escobar long-term.

By nOLIE

January 17, 2008 12:44 PM | Link to this

Nollie, that’s your problem right there. You are using a crappy razor. Gotta go with Gillette. As the commerical says, Gillette, it’s the best a man can get.

Your razor is stranding too many whiskers on your face.

Gillette gits ‘em on, gits ‘em over, and gits ‘em in.GEO

I bet you’re right, I’m gonna change to Gillette today…oops I have a beard…you’re right Occams Razor is doing a damm poor job on my whiskers.

By David-ATL14

January 17, 2008 12:47 PM | Link to this

Well said DOB well said!

By brian

January 17, 2008 12:49 PM | Link to this

great points DOB - I agree. Yunel was ready and Edgar only had one year left on his contract. Dealing Edgar helps the Braves in 2008. Opens the door for Yunel and KJ to play everyday. Created money to sign Glavine. The trade also may give us our 5th starter this year.

Yes the trade helps us for the future and for any reloading we have to do by getting a young starter with a great arm who could be a future #2 or 3 starter(after Glavine and Smoltz retire) and by getting a top rated OF prospect. This trade, though, also helps us this year. We traded from an area of depth and if anyone wants to argue that that depth was a saving grace for us last year when Edgar was hurt (it was of course) - remember that we still have Lillebridge in the wings

By Bryan from Kansas (Go KU)

January 17, 2008 12:52 PM | Link to this

David,

I saw on mlbtraderumors.com where the Rays talked to the Braves about Willy Aybar. Do you know anything about that?

By David O'Brien

January 17, 2008 1:07 PM | Link to this

Yes, the Braves and Rays are talking about Aybar, but I don’t know yet how serious it is. Wouldn’t surprise me at all if he was moved, since he’s out of options.

Rays need a left-hitting guy who can play 1B/3B and outfield corners, and he fits most of that bill (switch-hitter, has played OF in minors and winter ball).

And for now, the Rays might want someone to play 3B regulary until top prospect Evan Longoria is brought up. They want Longorio to play a little more in the minors, at least a couple months.

The Rays’ lefties ain’t anything special (JP Howell and Kurt Birkins, who they claimed off waivers from Baltimore). So I’d imagine Braves are probably asking for a younger prospect, someone with legit talent who might be a few years away. That’s just a guess, though, so don’t keep asking me if I know if they’d take this guy or that. When I know, I won’t keep it to myself.

As for Baldelli (someone on the blog mentioned him) — I can’t imagine what the Braves would want with him at this point. Really can’t. I mean, they’ve got their RF for the forseeable future, they’ve got multiple CF prospects in the pipeline, and they’ve got Brandon Jones ready to ease into LF.

By doc

January 17, 2008 1:08 PM | Link to this

david, i was very apprehensive about seeing edgar go, felt he was the glue last year. however, i have come around to your way of thinking and am getting excited about this club. funny the two or three years before 2005 i was not enthusiastic and they continued the run then last year some rising optimism only for them to never put together much.

maybe frank has done the job and quietly put his stamp on this team and it could go far if they live up to expectations. the infield looks very solid and if kotsay is healthy the outfield is in good hands. a lot fewer questions going in this year than last, make that huge difference. actually have gotten in my mind glavine might be a difference maker.

By Josh H

January 17, 2008 1:08 PM | Link to this

Bryan from Kansas:

Have to think the Rays would find someway to offer us a completely worthless player for Aybar, and ruin any chances of that trade.

By Shaun

January 17, 2008 1:11 PM | Link to this

Daniel (Miami,FL): What are your thoughts on the Kotsay deal?

Keith Law: Dump trade for Oakland, and they’ve had some success with specialist arms. But I’ve never been a big Devine fan - saw him for the first time in ‘03 in the Conference USA tourney - and if Kotsay can play 120 games for the Braves, he’s a big help for them on defense and should get a bounce back in his power #s with the change in parks. I like it more for Atlanta.

By bigblackfurrycreaturefrommars

January 17, 2008 1:13 PM | Link to this

DOB:

If the braves would not of had the money to sign glavine without moving edgar, that means you know their budget for this year. It also means we must be tapped out. So my questions to you are:

what is the current budget? are the “many millions more” that they(liberty media) promised, already spent? Didnt we only have to pay a portion of Edgars salary this year (6mm or less?)? I wasnt sure but I thought that we did.

What money do we have coming off the books next year? I ask because it would seem to guarantee us not being able to resign tex.( in leu of the edgar and glavine comments above)But, i will try not to bring up that debate again

Also, with speculation of the aybar trade, what do you make of it?

what would you feel would be an acceptable return? And I read that the rays inquired about him - do you think that is really the case or is wren shopping behind our backs? regardless…a good idea?

OK. thanks

By DAP

January 17, 2008 1:18 PM | Link to this

DOB like i said, i like the edgar trade, but i can definitely see how people looking from the outside in would think it was a strange move for a contending team.

defense or no, we traded the 2nd best hitter on the team, and a guy who has been consistently a good player for years for basically two minor leaguers (since its likely jurjens wont start) and put in his place a guy with only around 300 ML at bats. every one knows escobar is special, but that move does look strange for a contender. it would be kinda like the red sox trading lowell for two minor leaguers and starting pedroia at third in ‘08.

im not doubting at all that it was the right move, because it absolutely was, for many reasons. but it didnt really make atlanta look like they were pulling out all the stops or anything. thats ok with me, though. i dont care how it looks to the outsiders as long as it works.

By Git 'em on, git 'em over, git 'em in

January 17, 2008 1:21 PM | Link to this

Nollie LOL.

By nOLIE

January 17, 2008 1:22 PM | Link to this

So all else is equal in the state of baseball to be able to deduce that a high coefficient of corellation is in fact casaul? I’m not sure all else is equal on all these teams. There are just too many variables.TP

the original version was part of the reductionist philosophy and was not stated as all things being equal, it suggested that the explanation of any phenomenon should be as simple as possible, often called the law of succinctness…but enough pedantry the citing of Mr Occams implement was an attempt to introduce a bit of whimsy into the discussion while still trying to make a point. As Scoots suggested I am ready to give up the argument itself. So moving on I suggest that we get either Shields or Carlos Pena for Aybar and perhaps a decent AA pitching prospect?

By ncscoots

January 17, 2008 1:30 PM | Link to this

Occam’s Razor…American Leaguer, right?

By ncscoots

January 17, 2008 1:36 PM | Link to this

Gawd, it’s the Curse Of Keith Law. Kotsay is doomed.

The only other thing that could guarantee a worse year for the guy is props from Dayn Perry…and, yes, he still is.

By David O'Brien

January 17, 2008 1:39 PM | Link to this

Bigblackfurry, you asked multiple questions. I’ll try to answer:

Q. If the braves would not of had the money to sign glavine without moving edgar, that means you know their budget for this year.

A. No, it doesn’t mean that. Should’ve said I don’t “think” the Braves would’ve had money to sign Glavine. Braves have evaded or given vague answers to approximately 732 questions about this year’s budget, whether because they simply don’t see any reason they should tell us or they genuinely don’t have a set figure. Either way, they’re not obligated to disclose it, though sometimes it seems they’d decide it’s easier just to state it publicly to end speculation. However, it is every complicated, since their own payroll methods differ from official MLB method, as Braves count Hampton’s salary on an amortized basis, etc.

Either way, from Wren to McGuirk, they haven’t been wiling so far to give us even an approximate figure on 2008 payroll, other than to not dispute the estimate ($90 mill or a little more) that I’ve written, when I asked if that figure was accurate. McGuirk said “many million” and probably regrets saying it, since he probably made the comment off the cuff and it’s been treated as though he used it in a carefully prepared State of the Braves speech.

I don’t know, perhaps $6-8 mill more than last year’s season-ending payroll qualifies as “many millions” to him. Or, and this is more likely, the Braves are counting on spending or being able to spend more at the deadline, as they did last year to get Teixeira and Mahay, which added significantly to payroll.

If they spent that much at the deadline again this year, they’d be near $95 mill. So I don’t know. Don’t know if they’ll have similar needs, if they’ll be able to make similar trade, or if they have earmarked funds to do so. They won’t say.

Q. Perhaps It also means we must be tapped out. So my questions to you are:

what is the current budget?

A. Don’t know. See above.

Q. are the �many millions more� that they(liberty media) promised, already spent?

A. Don’t know, see above.

Q. Didnt we only have to pay a portion of Edgars salary this year (6mm or less?)? I wasnt sure but I thought that we did.

A. Yes, that was approximate figure Braves counted against payroll, with Boston paying rest.

Q. What money do we have coming off the books next year?

A. Sorry, but we’ve covered this extensively, and I mean extensively. Unless I can find my answer to previous query on subject, I’m not going to break it down again right now. But I’ll look to see if it’s handy.

Q. I ask because it would seem to guarantee us not being able to resign tex.( in leu of the edgar and glavine comments above)But, i will try not to bring up that debate again

A. You’re making assumptions when you and I don’t know what the payroll will be this year, much less what it might be next year. I’d guess Braves, whose ownership is beginning its first full season at the helm, have not begun to see next year’s payroll, that they’ll do so after seeing how this year works out, how attendance goes, how other revenue streams go.

But Wren did say at FanFest that with an $85-90 mill payroll, this isn’t a team that can afford $20 mill players. He said Braves would do everything they could to sign Teixeira, but couldn’t make any promises, etc.

If Tex has another year like last year, I’d guess he’ll be at least a $20 mill player.

Q. Also, with speculation of the aybar trade, what do you make of it?

A. Answered previously. Wouldn’t surprise me, since he’s out of options and since last year didn’t exactly go well.

Q. What would you feel would be an acceptable return?

A. Don’t know, other than to say it probably won’t be acceptable with 93.4 percent of the folks here, just as most other such trades yield returns that shock so many who overvalue their team’s young talent. I like Aybar and believe he can be a special player, so I’d guess Braves, rather than take a journeyman lefty reliever, would ask for a younger prospect who might be a few years away, but who has a high ceiling.

Q. And I read that the rays inquired about him - do you think that is really the case or is wren shopping behind our backs?

A. I hope you’re not being serious. If so, I’ll let Wren know you don’t appreciate him shopping behind your back.

Q. Regardless�a good idea?

A. If Braves don’t believe they can rely on him to be their second utility infielder, it is. They probably know more of what’s gone on behind the scenes with the player than I do. He’s had his troubles, for sure. I don’t know if their patience is worn thin or if they believe that, since he’s out of options, they want to get something for him while they can.

By DAP

January 17, 2008 1:48 PM | Link to this

id take david price or james houser for aybar in a heartbeat. but id wake up eventually.

By Luther

January 17, 2008 2:22 PM | Link to this

Braves and Rays talking, DOB not sure about player for Rays: Must be Carl Crawford time.

Also, Law-But I’ve never been a big Devine fan - saw him for the first time in ‘03 in the Conference USA tourney

What is NC State doing in the Conference USA tourney? Am I confused? Second, that was his freshman year of college.

By Efrim

January 17, 2008 2:24 PM | Link to this

Just got back from San Diego for vacation and found out that we traded for Kotsay. Hopefully the guy can just play 120 games and put up his career averages. If he does that, it is a win for the Braves.

I was never a fan of Devine to begin with. If he was really that good, he would of made a bigger impact than he had up to this point. Richmond was a decent prospect. All reports say that he has a chance to be a fifth starter or middle reliever. Those guys are a dime a dozen in the minors.

Add to it the fact that the Braves only have to pay 2 million and I think it is a solid trade.

By Efrim

January 17, 2008 2:26 PM | Link to this

DAP

Maybe we could get Wade Davis and Jake Mcgee from the Rays as well as Price…….

I mean Aybar is a star….

Haha.

By flange1

January 17, 2008 2:27 PM | Link to this

Wonder if the Rays would consider moving Dan Wheeler? Maybe we throw in something else?

By ncscoots

January 17, 2008 2:38 PM | Link to this

Luther, LMAO, thanks for the Carl Crawford mention…now I know I’m actually on the right blog!

For the first time in years, though, Rays actually don’t have the OF depth to trade Crawford or Baldelli. Not after moving Delmon and Elijah.

It really will seem odd to have time go by without some wild-eyed, Jack-Daniels-swigging Trader Jack out there in blogland clamoring for Carl Crawford. Change is hard.

By bigblackfurrycreaturefrommars

January 17, 2008 2:51 PM | Link to this

DOB

I knew some of those questions were redundant, and I appreciate you taking the time to answer them. Much obliged.

By Some wild-eyed, Jack-Daniels-swigging Trader Jack

January 17, 2008 2:52 PM | Link to this

Trade Diaz, Aybar, Brandon Jones for Carl Crawford.

And tell the Rays to throw in a bottle of Jack Daniels. I’m runnin’ out!

By EM

January 17, 2008 2:52 PM | Link to this

off topic, but selig got extended by 3 more years today.

great, scathing review of him in link below. everyone seems to forget mr. “high revenues” tried to CONTRACT teams. he’s awful

http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/01/17/money-beats-out-integrity-selig-gets-3-year-extension/

By BamaBrave

January 17, 2008 2:54 PM | Link to this

I think Eva Longoria is one hot little piece of pie, but the Tampa Bay franchise must really be hurting if she’s their number one prospect at third, DOB.

Juuuuust kidding. Couldn’t resist.

By Lew

January 17, 2008 2:58 PM | Link to this

Efrim-With your 2:24 post, you proved that you and I don’t disagree on everything. You’ve got that situation nailed. A career average season from Kotsay works for me and will work in the Braves’ favor. Devine never was going to make a name for himself with the Braves. It never seemed that Bobby Cox was enamored of him. I might look for Bryan Pena to be gone, too. Never thought BC much liked him, either.

By David O'Brien

January 17, 2008 3:06 PM | Link to this

priceless ressponse at 2:52. made me laugh. love it

By bigblackfurrycreaturefrommars

January 17, 2008 3:07 PM | Link to this

After reading that link about the Bud Selig fleece, it finally dawned on me. I had seen his pictures for years and I finally realized who he looks like.

Bud Selig = Stephen Hawking

I don’t mean that to be crude, simply…well, he just looks like him is all.

On a side note- probably far aside from most people on here- Ween is playing in ATL on the 29th. rejoice

By Malkatraz

January 17, 2008 3:17 PM | Link to this

Nice Article about Chipper. Hadn’t seen it posted here yet: http://sportsillustrated.cnn.com/2008/writers/john_donovan/01/17/donovan.cleanteam/1.html

By Efrim

January 17, 2008 3:17 PM | Link to this

Lew

I will say though, a career average year from Kotsay doesn’t make me want to bat him 1st or 2nd in the lineup. I still want Johnson and Escobar to bat up there. It wouldn’t be the end of the world if Kotsay was up there, but I think Escobar and Johnson would be better fits.

By doc

January 17, 2008 3:21 PM | Link to this

BBFCFM just wish selig had as much smarts and integrity as hawking.

By Robert (Chipper Is The Best)

January 17, 2008 3:23 PM | Link to this

I’m sure glad Bud Selleck got that extension. But, the next time he goes before Congress he needs be more familiar with the Rafael Palmareri situation and no his history. How did he not know about the 1919 Chicago Blackhawks scandal?

By Renegator

January 17, 2008 3:27 PM | Link to this

If the Rays are looking for someone who can play 1B and corner outfield - that’s got Scott Thorman’s name all over it. I know he doesn’t play 3rd but man, I would love to have that waste of a roster spot out of ATL.

By Steve McP

January 17, 2008 3:27 PM | Link to this

The best the Braves can hope for in return for Aybar is one or, maybe two, medium level prospects. If the Rays really do want him they could always wait until ST and get him on waivers when the Braves decide to send him down.

They have James Houser, who is a young lefty pitcher with reasonable minor league numbers, and it would be a fair swap as he has been through a drug ban as well. Might back up the pen.

Maybe they would be interested in a package of our secondary players (thinking Prado, Thorman, Pena) although I can’t really see anyone that they have that would sensibly even up the trade and help the Braves this year.

By ET90210

January 17, 2008 3:39 PM | Link to this

Came across a great article called “All-Juiced Team.” Fairly self-explanatory, but it’s essentially an All-Star team made up of suspected PED-fueled players. Good read.

http://mlbfleecefactor.com/2008/01/16/all-time-teams-the-all-juiced-team/

By mr.met

January 17, 2008 3:40 PM | Link to this

are the braves done playing on tbs? anyone?

By Renegator

January 17, 2008 3:41 PM | Link to this

Nice article Malkatraz - thanks for the link. Nice to see three Braves on that list and one former Brave (Maddux)

By OrlandoFan

January 17, 2008 3:58 PM | Link to this

This blog is getting lonnnnnnnggggg….

Something that occurred to me earlier today: Does any other contending team — much less a perennially contending team — have more arbitration-elegible players than the Braves. Could be as many as 5 of the starting 8 (depending on who plays) are of that seniority (though I know McCann is signed). And when you set aside Smoltz/Glavine/Hudson, most of the pitching staff qualifies. I think Yates doesn’t, and I’m not sure about Soriano. If Sammons/Pena make the team, could be the whole bench unit is that young. Amazingly young team these days. I’m sure most of you have been all over that already.

By David O'Brien

January 17, 2008 4:01 PM | Link to this

Renegator, they’re looking for a left-hitting 1B/3B/OF, and the 3B part is important, as I said, because they might want him to play there every day until Longoria is called up….

Oh, and happy 53rd birthday, Steve Earle.

By Shaun

January 17, 2008 4:04 PM | Link to this

Don’t know if this has been discussed but I heard that Buck and Kincaid were wondering if Atlanta Braves attendance would be hurt by having a AAA team close by. A friend of mine made a good point: Seems the AAA team should be concerned about a major league team being close by.

By David O'Brien

January 17, 2008 4:09 PM | Link to this

by the way, now I know why i thought earle sang Down In The Hole on The Wire late last season and not just this season: It’s because the song’s on his latest CD, and my buddy Don gave me an advance copy of it last fall.

When you get older, thoughts and memories meld. So I remembered hearing it before this season and … well, you get it. That was bothering me, my poor memory of that. Now I have my explanation and don’t feel like I’m losing my mind.

Speaking of Earle…

pretty cool video here on his website

That’s his lovely wife Allison Moorer singing background.

By David O'Brien

January 17, 2008 4:13 PM | Link to this

mr.met, the braves are only on TBS next year if they happen to be one of the teams in the TBS Sunday game. Otherwise, they’re not on it anymore.

By N8

January 17, 2008 4:19 PM | Link to this

“And for now, the Rays might want someone to play 3B regulary until top prospect Evan Longoria is brought up. They want Longorio to play a little more in the minors, at least a couple months.”

WOW! I knew she was hot. But I had NO IDEA she could play baseball too! That makes her twice as hot! Man alive….that Tony Parker is one lucky SOB.

Whats that? Oh…..never mind.

By Renegator

January 17, 2008 4:24 PM | Link to this

DOB: Just wishful thinking on Thorman. I know that he isn’t a fit for what they really need. I’m just hoping someone takes him off our hands. I really don’t see how he can develop just pinch hitting here and there.

By Braveheart

January 17, 2008 4:47 PM | Link to this

If the Braves take any attendance hit from having a AAA team close by, I believe it will only be minimal, and a short term hit at that. Over time, it will probably only grow the fan base and increase attendance at the Ted. There should be a mutual benefit to both teams over time. Fans who love the Braves are gonna wanna pretend to be wannabe GMs and scouts and check out the kids they are hearing about, and the minor league diehards are gonna wanna watch the kids they see up close play in the majors. The biggest benefit to the Braves will most likely be in television and radio ratings and merchandise sold. It should be a brilliant marketing move, if people give it time. We live in a MTV, fast food culture though, so I don’t know if people will allow. Fortunately, the Braves under JS have always had a long term vision of things and don’t panic over short term hits or public sentiment.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves in 2008)

January 17, 2008 5:05 PM | Link to this

Well , if Aybar is traded. The Betemit trade was a lot of hoopla about nothing unless the comp A pick used on Jon Gilmore turns into something special.

By bigblackfurrycreaturefrommars

January 17, 2008 5:06 PM | Link to this

I don’t think that there is any way the braves will take an attendance hit by the AAA team being in Gwinett. Just as Shaun pointed out above. it should make their fanbase grow larger. I also think what Braveheart said is spot on as well.

I live in Sminings and it would take me a helluva lot longer to get to gwinnett than ATL. without a doubt. like 5 or 8 times longer. If anything it will just make traffic worse on 85, and make we want to go halfway to athens, less and less.

Anyways, they are a minor league team. A MINOR league team. the only way it will hurt the braves is if the Gwinnett Braves start getting televised on TBS. which is not a bad idea, now that i think of it…who does have the broadcasting rights?

Besides, you can go to a braves game for the cost of gas driving to the nearest marta station, the marta ticket there and back, the braves shuttle to the stadium and back, and a one dollar ticket standing room only, or a 5 dollar seat. total cost of less than 10 bucks. Thats what ive been doing for years

By Random

January 17, 2008 5:08 PM | Link to this

Steve McP: If the Rays really do want [Aybar] they could always wait until ST and get him on waivers when the Braves decide to send him down.

Although the Rays did have the worst record in the majors last year, still all NL teams would have a shot to claim him off waivers before any AL team got a chance. (The Rays would have preference over any other AL team by virtue of their record.)

By McFann

January 17, 2008 5:11 PM | Link to this

Maybe the Braves are after one of the Royals 1B prospects.

Sorry. Just thought I’d join the crowd of kidders.

By TennesseePaul

January 17, 2008 5:29 PM | Link to this

if Aybar is traded. The Betemit trade was a lot of hoopla about nothing

Wouldn’t this also depend on who is on the other side of the trade. The only way an Aybar move would result in the Betemit trade bing hoopla aobut nothing is if Aybar is dumped like Langerhans. I don’t see that happening. He still has value to this team.

I don’t think a AAA team is going to take away fans from the major league team. On top of that, if that were a fear, they could easily set up the schedule so the Gwinett Braves are home when the Atlanta Braves are on the road.
If they call them the “G Braves” I’ll be bummed. That should be reserved only for the Greenville Braves. They are in Gwinett, perhaps they’ll shorten the name to the Bravetts.

By Robert (Chipper Is The Best)

January 17, 2008 5:30 PM | Link to this

Well, I don’t think Aybar would bet placed on waivers. He doesn’t have any options but Martin Prado does so I would think unless Prado just totally outplays Aybar in spring training (which is highly doubtfut) the Braves would just send Prado back down.

By rich brave

January 17, 2008 5:37 PM | Link to this

Dave:

Yours of 12;30 p.m. Revealing comment on Renteria’s character when you said he admitted Escobar’s arm better than his ever was. I love the guy and I’ve never met him.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves in 2008)

January 17, 2008 5:39 PM | Link to this

10Paul you totally missed the boat on my statement by leaving out the second half of what I said :

Unless the comp A pick used on Jon Gilmore turns into something special.

You obviously didn’t take the time to figure it out where and how Jon Gilmore fits into the Betemit trade.

By AdirondackDave

January 17, 2008 5:44 PM | Link to this

DOC — You’re right about Selig/Hawking. Right on the button.

By Curt

January 17, 2008 5:47 PM | Link to this

The case for Javy Lopez: not only would Javy provide an experienced back-up for McCann as well as a good bat off the bench but he also can play first base.

At this point Thorman has not proved himself to be a reliable enough hitter or fielder so having Javy gives the Braves options and it allows them to package Thorman in a trade..if needed.

By McFann

January 17, 2008 5:55 PM | Link to this

Oh crud! That trade talk was with the Rays.

Dangit. Now I feel really stupid.

By TennesseePaul

January 17, 2008 6:04 PM | Link to this

Right Coach. Because if we trade Aybar, only the comp pick can redeem the Betemit deal and not the return for Aybar…

By Shaun

January 17, 2008 7:16 PM | Link to this

Rob Neyer picked Kelly Johnson as the fifth-most valuable secondbaseman over the next five seasons.

So here’s how I’ve got them, with (as usual) the last spot held open for the next great second baseman who hasn’t established himself yet. Remember, we’re talking about value over the next five seasons …

1. Cano

2. Utley

3. Pedroia

4. Phillips

5. Johnson

6. Kinsler

7. Weeks

8. Kendrick

9. Hudson

10. ????

One could definitely make the case for Roberts instead of Kendrick or Hudson, and maybe even Weeks (because of the latter’s poor defense). The real surprise here is Johnson. He got a late start, but his hitting seems to be legitimate and defensively he’s better than most. I’m not at all sure he’ll have a better career than Weeks or Kendrick, but I do think he’ll have a better next five years.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves in 2008)

January 17, 2008 7:26 PM | Link to this

Frankly , when it comes to the rotation , lineup and bench , I wouldn’t change a thing. The bullpen could use another quality lefty. Will Ohman is a quality situational lefty , Royce Ring is out of options and no lock to make the team . Then we have Mike Gonzalez , who won’t be back anytime soon and his effectiveness will be iffy until proven otherwise.

By David O'Brien

January 17, 2008 7:40 PM | Link to this

TRADE IS DONE: Willy Aybar AND SS prospect Chase Fontaine to Tampa Bay for lefty Jeff Ridgeway, whose only big league experience was with Rays in September.

By The Evil Genius

January 17, 2008 7:41 PM | Link to this

Tony Clark , Ryan Klesko , Doug Mientkiewicz , Eric Hinske , Julio Franco , Sean Casey and Tony Batista are all free agent first basemen currently without a contract or team.

Scott Thorman is still a Brave. This constitutes a massive conspiracy.

Somebody call Congress , lets get this investigation on the road already !

By David O'Brien

January 17, 2008 7:43 PM | Link to this

Ridgway, 27, had 67 K with 30 walks in 64-2/3 innings at Triple-A Durham last year, with four saves and a 3.06 ERA in 54 games.

By Braveheart

January 17, 2008 8:06 PM | Link to this

Wow. I hope Ridgway finds a way to lower that 189.00 ERA. LOL, Drafted in 1999, 27 years old, and only one third of an inning in the majors. And for that the Braves traded 2 infielders with .390 OBPs? I thought the Rays were trying to rid themselves of problem children. But then they go get Willy Aybar.

By Overlord

January 17, 2008 8:13 PM | Link to this

Its OK with me to see Aybar gone, but has anyone seen Ridgeway pitch? Numbers look ok, but how does his stuff looks???

By David O'Brien

January 17, 2008 8:16 PM | Link to this

ONE OTHER THING: Braves just announced that Omar Infante was hit by a pitch this week and has a broken hand, expected to be out until mid-March and questionable for opening day, though they don’t believe it’s serious. He might need minor surgery to put a pin in it, but Wren said it won’t take long to get him in playing shape because he’s played all winter.

Anyway, this means LILLIBRIDGE and Prado both have legit chances to make the team. Folks, it’s looking like they have plans for Lillibridge, maybe as the other utility guy when Infante gets back.

By TennesseePaul

January 17, 2008 8:19 PM | Link to this

In his September Call up Ridgway (no e in there) made 3 appearances, got 1 out, gave up 7 hits, 1 HR, a walk and 7 runs for a 189.00 ERA.

Drafted - Selected by Tampa Bay Devil Rays in 14th Round (415th overall) of 1999 amateur entry draft (June-Reg) Sep 7,1999 - signed Sep 10,2002 - On disabled list.

In 7 minor league seasons he has a 3.59 ERA, 458.2 innings and 426 K’s and 217 BB. A 1.97 K/BB ratio and less than a K an inning. He’s been strictly a reliever since 2004. We gave up 2 guys for this. One of them would have helped our bench and kept Marteen off the team… Can only think Wren suspects Aybar is finished or this guy has some sort of untapped potential.

By TennesseePaul

January 17, 2008 8:24 PM | Link to this

Alright Coach… I think you misunderstood my post as I was attempting to say we’d have to way and see what a trade of Aybar nets us in return to find out if the the Betemit deal is all based on the Comp pick. After reviewing what Aybar got us, I’d say it’s all on the Comp pick now. Aybar himself couldn’t net us a minor leaguer with nowhere to go.

Can’t wait to hear the spin on this one. It’ll show up eventually. Something about how good this man is on Tuesday day games in domes against mid-sized left handed bench players with colds.

By TennesseePaul

January 17, 2008 8:34 PM | Link to this

make that “wait” not “way”…

By mike

January 17, 2008 8:47 PM | Link to this

Ive been very supportive of the moves Frank Wren has made but I’m not so sure about this one. However, no one can say that he hasn’t been aggressive. He’s made every attempt to make this team better and I think he has. In the big picture this move will not effect how successful the Braves are in 08. Can you imagine the Braves not making the postseason and someone saying, “if only we hadn’t traded Aybar?” He’s a decent backup 2b and 3b at best

By David O'Brien

January 17, 2008 8:57 PM | Link to this

If you’re looking for some reason, however small, to have hope for Teixeira re-signing, consider this: He avoided arbitration and signed for $12.5 mill tonight. That means he and Boras didn’t even have to get to the exchanging-salary-figures part of arbitration, that the Braves made them a fair enough offer to sign and avoid all that.

Yates, Infante and Gonzalez also signed.

Of their six arb-eligibles, all but Soriano and Diaz signed. They’ll swap figures with those guys and probably settle halfway, as usual.

By Overlord

January 17, 2008 9:07 PM | Link to this

Is that a broken finger or wrist or what?

By Tom

January 17, 2008 9:07 PM | Link to this

DOB, perhaps you could give us a little insight as to what Frank Wren was trying to achieve with the Aybar-for-Ridgway deal.

The reactions to the Kotsay deal have been mixed at best, but at least I could see a hole in center field that is potentially filled by Mark Kotsay. I see no such hole for a lefty reliever, however. Will Ohman has a guaranteed contract, so he’s in. And Royce Ring is out of options, so unless the Braves planning on dealing him too, where does Ridgway fit in?

I know Aybar and Fontaine are about as expendable as they come (with Prado, Infante and Lillibridge as utilitymen, and Travis Jones as a better A-ball second baseman). But the best we could do for the pair was…Jeff Ridgway?!

I won’t lie…this deal looks ridiculously stupid to me, though I trust there’s something here that the Braves see that I don’t. What am I missing, DOB?

By Lew

January 17, 2008 9:11 PM | Link to this

This is basically a nothing trade. Maybe this pitcher has something, but Aybar pretty well just showed how much faith the Braves had in him-damn little. I also can’t believe that anyone is still lamenting Betemit. The guy has not performed very well either in LA or NY-after not really living up to his early minor league hype to bgin with.

By Steve McP

January 17, 2008 9:12 PM | Link to this

The Tex news looks good - isn’t that figure at the lower end of the figures being muted?

By AdirondackDave

January 17, 2008 9:24 PM | Link to this

DOB — Thanks for the Tex news. I’m heartened by that. He just seems to me to be the core-type cleanup hitter that the Braves will need to be a playoff team. It also may be an indication that Tex and not his agent is controlling his future. I missed some of the reporting on FanFest, did he participate?

By ColoradoBravesFan

January 17, 2008 9:40 PM | Link to this

Well… this trade doesn’t seem to make much sense. The only thing I can see is Frank Wren must think the 2008 Braves will be a better team with Lillibridge playing instead of W. Aybar. But you would think Aybar with a career OPS 0f .800+ in over 350 ABs would bring back more than Ridgway by himself, not to mention packaged with an infield prospect. I believe Lillibridge will play well, but I believe we could have held Aybar till late ST and then gotten more for him.
Is it just me or or do others feel we should have given up much less in these past 2 trades for Kotsay and Ridgway?

By Overlord

January 17, 2008 9:45 PM | Link to this

AdirondackDave what would be the most yo would pay tex for a 5 year deal next year?

By ColoradoBravesFan

January 17, 2008 9:49 PM | Link to this

This quote from a Rays blog makes me feel “real good” about the Aybar trade…

What do the Braves see in Ridgeway? I mean I once saw a scounting report on Ridgeway that said the only reason he got balls called for strikes was because umpired felt sorry for him. Go figure. This just makes me scratch my head, for the Rays not wanting to keep Switzer.

By Overlord

January 17, 2008 9:51 PM | Link to this

any trade sending aybar away for a fairly good player is a good deal.

By rich brave

January 17, 2008 9:52 PM | Link to this

Is it me or does Ridgeway sound like the second coming of Devine in his abilities against lefties and his stats? Generally I mean, not number for number.

By crimedogrules

January 17, 2008 9:57 PM | Link to this

I like all the trades. Someone said it earlier, “Why so much loyality to a bunch of players that finished third in the East for the last two years?” Expecting different results from the same factors is insanity, or however that saying goes.

I’d like to see Lil’ Bridge get his shot.

By AdirondackDave

January 17, 2008 9:57 PM | Link to this

Colorado — I’ve pretty much come around on the Kotsay deal. One decent year with him in center makes it well worthwhile. This deal for Aybar, frankly, looks like we gave up something and probably got back nothing. I doubt that Ridgway makes it out of spring training and would have thought Aybar could have gotten us either a roster-ready player or a good young prospect. Don’t think Ridgway qualifies as a good young prospect.

By David O'Brien

January 17, 2008 10:01 PM | Link to this

ColoradoBravesFan, that’s a good way to judge a trade — by what a fan said about it on the Rays blog.

And someone there will probably look at this blog and see someone call Aybar a waste of talent and a drug user, and report it on that blog. And so it goes.

This is two teams trading pieces they either didn’t want badly enough to keep.

By TennesseePaul

January 17, 2008 10:08 PM | Link to this

This is basically a nothing trade. Maybe this pitcher has something, but Aybar pretty well just showed how much faith the Braves had in him-damn little.

Lew, so this is a nothing trade because you read it as the Braves have no faith in Aybar? I’m not sure that even makes it a good trade. Frank Wren could have whatever faith he wants in a player, that doesn’t mean trading him for a nothing minor league journyman is a break even trade.

Bring on the fireworks.

By rich brave

January 17, 2008 10:08 PM | Link to this

Dave:

Sounds like Wren is methodically taking care of business one step at a time. Giving Cox players as needed. Are they the right ones? Well, that’s another matter. Time will tell. Now he’s working through the list of no-option guys (Aybar) and those arbitration eligible. Did he like the batting-Tex contract scenario I wrote of here with Yunel, Kelly, Chip, and Tex in that order? Looks like he did exactly that and put Tex on a first step fast-track toward a new long-term deal. Here’s hoping it gets done and he’s with Atlanta for a long time. I believe Francouer will mature into a great hitter also. This would make the new team line-up tough to pitch to. You really need three boppers in that line-up to frighten people.

By AdirondackDave

January 17, 2008 10:16 PM | Link to this

Overloard — On the Teixiera contract, if I were JS and Wren, I would put together as strong a case as possible (and there is one to be made) to Liberty execs that expanding the payroll to $110M in ‘09 will solidify and enhance the franchise value significantly. Then I would offer Tex a 6 +1 club option at something like this 18-19-20-21-22-23 (total is $123M for 6 years + $24M club option year.

I think it’s at least 50-50 that Teixiera accepts a deal close to that if he values staying in Atlanta, and I think he does.

What is your thinking on this?

By Overlord

January 17, 2008 10:19 PM | Link to this

Braves dont like players that create problems on or off the field.

furcal, gant, rocker, etc. Maybe thats a reason why Aybar is no longer a brave.

By TheBigDawg

January 17, 2008 10:28 PM | Link to this

I know Aybar had used up all his chances with the Braves, but I didn’t think they wanted him out of town so badly that they’d give him away with another MI prospect for a mediocre lefty specialist. I believe Wren would have been better off just cutting Aybar loose and keeping Fontaine. BTW - I love the idea of Lillibridge being a utility guy. I think he can be a real asset helping the big club when Kotsay or Chipper go down with their usual injuries. DOBAny appearances of a long-term Francoeur deal on the horizon?

By Crazy Frank

January 17, 2008 10:29 PM | Link to this

ATTEBTION MLB GENERAL MANAGERS

Crazy Frank Wren is having a blow-out sell! Players going cheap! All talent will be sold low.

Need a decent long reliever? We’ll take a cruddy CF prospect!

Looking to dump some salary on your rebuilding team and need a closer of the future? We’ll take your center fielder with the bad back!

This is no joke!

Call before spring training and we’ll even throw in a pitching prospect just for the hell of it! No bad trade will be denied regardless of past playing history!

Call 1-800-CRAZYGM and ask for the guy who signed Albert Belle.

By TennesseePaul

January 17, 2008 10:30 PM | Link to this

Overlord: If that’s the reason, all of the majors should send out the peer pressure squad and pull down any low haning fruit they can just to work a deal for ‘em in exchange for any warm body in the minors that they can’t seem to fire on their own.

AdirondackDave: I think Tex already turned down a 140 million dollar 7 year deal. Not sure he’d take a smaller one to live several thousand miles away from his home… in Arizona.

By BravesFanInRockies

January 17, 2008 10:50 PM | Link to this

This is two teams trading pieces they [that?] either didn’t want badly enough to keep.

Exactly. After missing an entire season, I think it was optimistic to expect Aybar to contribute much. Any help he provided would have been a pleasant surprise. And since he was out of options, his trade value might be no higher now than it would be in ST.

It really is too bad about Infante, however. Hope he recovers quickly, because he could help the club. A lot.

By AdirondackDave

January 17, 2008 10:50 PM | Link to this

TennPaul — Yes, true enough. But apparently he and his wife also have some Atlanta ties and comfort level. He would be here with a competitive team surrounded by guys in the lineup who he will benefit from. Added to this quick settlement today at 12.5M, I think it looks at least 50-50 to reel him in. And I’m not sure either the Yanks or Mets would sign on to a 7-year guaranteed contract. Both have been burned by some star contracts. But who knows, not me. Tex does and he’s not talking.

By Overlord

January 17, 2008 10:51 PM | Link to this

AdirondackDave your contract prop. sounds fair to me. And i think TEX would take that. Braves will have the money to do it. Although i would like to see Tex taking little bit less than that just as stars like chipper and smoltz have done in the past. I dont think he will make a big discount because he is not from braves farm, but if he really wants to be a braves, badly (and i think he does), he will get less from braves just to stay a brave.

You dont have to look too hard to know he loves playing in atl., it is clear.

By Lew

January 17, 2008 10:53 PM | Link to this

TennPan-That’s right-a nothing trade. A lifetime minor league ballplayer in exchange for another minor league ballplayer with issues (and another player pretty far down the pecking order), that neither team apparently cared enough about to keep.

Looks like our backup infielders will be Lillibridge and Prado-people in our system who I would guess the Braves feel are ready for at least part time duty. Many wanted Lillibridge to play and Prado, while not spectacular, has been fine in a support role.

What did we receive? Not much. What did we give up? Not much there, either. As someone earlier said-I can’t see us saying in October that we lost the division because we did not have Aybar-Do You?

By Overlord

January 17, 2008 10:57 PM | Link to this

TP why do you think Aybar is gone? Do you think he was fully rehab? im not sure about that, and i think braves were not sure about it either.

By rich brave

January 17, 2008 11:10 PM | Link to this

OVERLORD:

Redskins took that stance with their star middle linebacker. He now haunts them twice a year behind the New York Giants defensive line. Don’t fool around with Tex. He is serious, and games will not impress him. Man up and talk to the dude straight up.

By David O'Brien

January 17, 2008 11:11 PM | Link to this

Overlord, broken hand is what I was told. He was hit by a pitch. Not broken finger.

By Logan23

January 17, 2008 11:11 PM | Link to this

Ridgway Stats

By Efrim

January 17, 2008 11:30 PM | Link to this

I don’t like the Aybar trade. Why give up Chase Fontaine? He had a bad year in the minors, but so what, he seemed to have good on base skills. Oh well. Isn’t that important of a trade, but I don’t really understand why we had to throw in another minor league player for a journeyman 27 year old. That doesn’t make sense to me.

By AdirondackDave

January 17, 2008 11:36 PM | Link to this

Rich Brave — I agree, Teixeira isn’t a guy you low-ball and then try to work on him for months. Come in with a respectable proposal, maybe save a few dollars for final agreement but show the man the respect he’s earned and make it damn clear he’s a career Brave in their minds going into Cooperstown with an A on his cap.

By Robert (Chipper Is The Best)

January 17, 2008 11:52 PM | Link to this

I have applauded every move Frank Wren has made but this one is a bit mystifying. I think the Braves could have gotten a lot more than Ridgeway for Aybar and giving up another prospect on top of it. It just doesn’t make sense to me. Ridgeway is worth two players? I don’t think so.

I suppose the good thing that comes out of this is that Brent Lillibridge may get the shot he deserves to be on the 25 man roster. I think this kid can thrive in that role.

That is bad news about Infante. Hopefully he will be back by mid-March. I’m not against Aybar being traded. I’m just against the return the Braves got for him. I think Wren got hosed on this one.

By ColoradoBravesFan

January 18, 2008 12:07 AM | Link to this

DOB… OK I should not evaluate trades by what’s on the Rays blog site. I agree with that statement. What is your assesment of the overall trades/work by Frank Wren so far? This was posted earlier on a braves website.

Traded away: Devine Ascanio Aybar Fontaine Richmond Renteria

released: A. Jones Orr, woodward

Received: Ridgeway Kotsay Infante Ohman Glavine Jurrjens Lopez G. Hernandez

When taken as a whole I would say he gets an overall solid “B”. Of all that have been traded only Devine and the #18 pick might someday make a difference.

By David O'Brien

January 18, 2008 12:19 AM | Link to this

I’d give him a B-plus, ColoradoBravesFan. I thought he might have gotten more for for Aybar, to be honest. But obviously the market wasn’t there, because Wren is nothing if not thorough.

This trade does nothing for me, but most or all of his other moves this offseason, I liked. And having watched and talked to Devine many times, I’m sorry, but I’ll be surprised if he’s ever a good closer for a contending team. I hope I’m wrong, because he’s a super-nice kid.

By Greg in TN

January 18, 2008 12:34 AM | Link to this

Top O’ the morning denizens…

Took a while to catch up on the goings on here at the Braves/MIB blog. And it’s been a busy post FanFest week on Planet Braves.

Gil, thought about you with the announcement earlier in the week concerning the R-Braves. I’ve really enjoyed your take on how things are going on the farm. It’s things like that which makes this locale appealing for me. It’s tough to lose a presence like that for Richmond and I know I’d be a bit miffed at hearing that if I were there too.

The city of Knoxville did much of the same before the Blue Jays moved a few miles down I-40 toward the Smokies for the 2000 season. Granted, I have no doubt that Bill Meyer Stadium in Knoxville was in much worse shape than The Diamond is in Richmond (and that having never had a chance to go over to catch a game there). To me, it seems like there’s a lot more movement between minor league cities within the past few years.

Still, I think the move makes sense for the big club on a few levels that have been mentioned on the blog so far, however I think the cross-promotional possibilities are a big plus as well as keeping travel costs down. And who knows? Perhaps in years there can be some coordination between the International League schedule and the MLB schedules so that as often as can be practically done, once the big club leaves town for a road trip, the AAA guys can be in town starting a home stand.

The Kotsay trade is official, and I agree with the sentiment that he’ll be just fine as long as the back doesn’t flare up. I think some on the blog have gotten a tad weary on hearing about medical issues and physicals with what we’ve seen in the past few years with Hampton and Gonzalez (and I can’t say I blame them), but I believe Kotsay was a good pickup for us. As far as where he hits in the lineup? Well, I’ll think more about that once Grapefruit League play fires up in a little more than a month from now.

Folks, I shook Javy’s hand, got a signature and took a photo with him and he is fit and trim and appears to be ready to go for ST. It was great seeing Olson, Bream, Chris Chambliss, Pete Smith, Marquis Grissom as well as Smoltz, Chipper, Glavine, Tex and the rest of the guys. Really ready for Pitchers and Catchers to make their way to the land of the mouse instead of having to wait until 27 days from now, but then again, I would have been ready in November.

It’s a shame Aybar didn’t work out after having so many problems and issues in 2007. I’ll be interested to see what Ridgeway brings to the table and I hope Infante bounces back from the hand injury.

By uga-brave

January 18, 2008 12:36 AM | Link to this

small salary dump by liberty (gonna spend millions on the braves) so if chipper goes down who is gonna play third.

DOB, you wrote that great heartwrenching article about aybar and his problems . aybar is talented and we traded him for a used bag of balls.

so we get no look at infante, we trade away aybar. so i guess lillibridge and prado are our utility players this spring.

chipper better stay healthy. sorry this trade stinks.

then again i heard woodward is looking for employment.

he fits the profile, will play for the minimum .

By DAP

January 18, 2008 12:36 AM | Link to this

i dont really get this trade unless the braves thought aybar still might have some drug problems lingering.

if ridgway can replicate his minor league numbers, that would be pretty good, but i figured we could get a major league player for aybar AND a prospect. i dont like this trade, not because we lost aybar, but because we got ridgway. its a minor deal, either way.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves In 2008)

January 18, 2008 12:50 AM | Link to this

O’Brien , I had the impression that the Devil Rays were the one ones who initiated the Aybar trade. I’m surprised That Frank Wren would have ended up trading two for one , I thought it would have been just the opposite.

Was it the other way around ? I don’t know.

With Prado and lillibridge ready to contribute and the glut of infielders , a trade was bound to happen.

It’s tough to see a switch hitter be traded (Aybar) along with Fontaine. But , the Braves needed another lefty in the bullpen and they got one in Jeff Ridgway.

Don’t discount the fact that Ridgway has options remaining and Aybar didn’t , which makes things a little more flexible for the Braves.

Prado and lillibridge have options to and the Braves now have a roster spot open on the 40 man.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves In 2008)

January 18, 2008 12:55 AM | Link to this

uga-brave , if Chipper goes down , Escobar slides over to 3B and lillibridge or Infante take over at SS.

By uga-brave

January 18, 2008 1:01 AM | Link to this

dap,

this trde blows. period dont rationalize it.

By uga-brave

January 18, 2008 1:08 AM | Link to this

coach,

thanks for stating the obvious, no disrepect. so who is now on our bench? that was half our problem last year.

By TennesseePaul

January 18, 2008 1:08 AM | Link to this

Ahhh the fireworks were lit. And an uncessarily violent bang to start them off.

I see that at least I’m not in the minority in the puzzlement of this trade. I just don’t see a quality bench player with 2 seasons in the majors, nearly 400 plate appearances and a line of .292/.387/.416 is coupled with a minor leaguer with decent bat skills, a .392 OBP as nothing. And traded for “nothing”? Sounds good for the Braves.
Trade nothing for nothing… just to do something? I suppose. If that is the case it seems like a waste of time and energy. I’m sure the Rays had one more nothing they could have included. 2 nothings for 2 nothings would have made a little more sense. Especially if 1 of the nothings had some quality major league experience on the resume.

Overlord: I’m not sure why Aybar is gone. That’s part of the reason I’m scratching my head. Maybe he is finished. In which case everyone in the front office around baseball knows…? Hard to imagine such a horribly kept secret coming from the Braves. If it’s only because he had issues last season than I think it’s weak. And weaker still to talk to the Rays, a team making moves to distance itself from trouble players. The Reds or Nats would marry better. They have a recent history of granting second chances and the return might have been a little more rewarding. At least slightly more than “nothing”.
Time will tell I suppose, but I have a hard time seeing this as a win for the Braves.
I suspect “nothing” will be just that. At least the Rays upped their odds by acquiring 2 guys and one with solid MLB experience.

For that matter, does everyone see this as a no-win situation for both teams? Not sure that’s possible but I’d love to hear the logic. As it stands now it’s gotta look like the winner in this one is the Rays.

By Steve McP

January 18, 2008 1:12 AM | Link to this

With the arbitration guys largely sorted out now, is there any news on negotiations with Frenchy on a long term contract, we need to get him signed before ST, that would give the Braves a better view at the budget for Tex. We lose a lot of salary next year, but DOB’s comment reporting that no 20 mill players will be on the club according to Wren makes it look unlikely that Tex will stay, but we should make him an offer and see what he says.

By TennesseePaul

January 18, 2008 1:20 AM | Link to this

Traded away: Devine, Ascanio, Aybar, Fontaine, Richmond, Renteria, Villarreal

18 draft pick for Glavine
released: A. Jones Orr, Woodward

Received: Ridgeway, Kotsay, Infante, Ohman, Glavine, Jurrjens, Lopez, G. Hernandez, Anderson, Resop

Sheesh when you spell it all out like that it doesn’t look pretty. Don’t forget, Paronto or Tonto… he was dropped as well. Some of those moves aren’t really Wren’s. JS pretty much cut AJ. It was the last thing he did before he left. Probably to cover Wren. It’d be real tough on Wren if his first order of business was to dump AJ and trade Renteria for 2 minor leaguers.
So far, from what I’ve seen of these trades, they lack the value packed return that JS typically received. I think JS would have returned more, if not much more had he done these deals. Wren has just done two 2 for 1’s in a row and this latest is the least rewarding.

By uga-brave

January 18, 2008 1:24 AM | Link to this

DOB,

you said devine was a nice guy but you thought that he would never be a great closer, just did not have the attidude.

i know certain current braves, and former braves (blauser, lemke, brad clontz) they all hang out at T,J’S ON holcomb bridge.

to a man they think CHUCK N DUCK is the 4th dumbest brave of all time.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves In 2008)

January 18, 2008 1:29 AM | Link to this

I found this story about Jeff Ridgway from February of last year , hopefully this link doesn’t go bust. Otherwise , I’ll just cut and paste the whole story.

ttp://mlb.mlb.com/content/printer_friendly/tb/y2007/m02/d14/c1802191.jsp

By Metropolitan Man

January 18, 2008 2:37 AM | Link to this

BB Braves fan: There seems to be some confusion here about choking. Making history by choking like the METS did only cost them a CHANCE at the playoffs. Choking 13 out of 14 years is more like a rite of passage that has closed up. You really think 1 year of not making the playoffs (something us METS fans have learned to endure in the past) is equivalent to multiple exits (many in the 1st round by wild card winners) in the playoffs? I know fans would differ and there is many sides to this but if the METS pulled what the braves pulled in the playoffs, stankee fans could clown us more than they try to do already. The METS wouldnt be able to garner the attention they get now. Bottom line, dont show me something I cant have 13 out of 14 years……then I begin to think you are a tease!!!!

Lew: Yeah, keep worrying about El Duque and Pedro. El Duque and Pelfry are the question marks, not Pedro. Pedro replaces “choker in nikes” Glavine. Pedro is no Hampton and you already know he is a gamer who puts it all on the field. As far as the beat writers go, they are more fickle than Chipper deciding on how many games to play a season! They are talking from booth sides of their mouths on MLB, SI, Yahoo, ESPN, and all the NY papers. If you want a true assesment of how we METS fans feel, check the Talkback. We have come to the conclusion that Maine, Perez, Pedro, El Duque can keep up with the NL east. Heck, Glavine is our El Duque at this time. A Healthy Pedro stacks up well against Smoltz. Maine can battle Hudson. El Duque throws as hard as Glavine and can be quite as crafty. Now who do you put up against Pelfry who should show more strides this year. We dont know how well those strides will work out but your Chucky James is not major league material. Anyone who doesnt read reports on hitters needs to go back to Lowes. How can you not capitalize on such a great opportunity?
Now you got Chumper saying the offense will carry the braves. Ha, you choked all those years with pitching, why change now???? Smolzt and Hudson, that is it, that is all the pitchng you guys will bring to the table. Now your bench is starting to crack before the season starts. Lets see that makes Gonzalez (important part of your pen) and Omar Infante ( new bench blood) will be the casue for your early excuses on why you are falling behind so early…the division not the game!! We’ll make Tex wish he was back in Texas! Was that enough septic waste for ya????

LETS GO METS!

By Coach (Lets Go Braves In 2008)

January 18, 2008 3:07 AM | Link to this

Ridgway prepared to show his skills 02/15/2007 1:36 PM ET By Bill Chastain / MLB.com

ST. PETERSBURG — Jeff Ridgway understands persistence. After dealing with years of injuries, the left-hander will be in the mix fighting for a spot in the Devil Rays’ bullpen this spring.

Ridgway had his first experience with a serious arm injury 10 years ago, when he had Tommy John elbow reconstruction surgery on his left arm. In the aftermath of the ordeal, Ridgway missed his junior and senior seasons at Port Angeles (Wash.) High School. He began to pitch again after his senior year, and the Rays selected him in the 14th round of the 1999 First-Year Player Draft.

Ridgway showed early promise when he posted a 2.47 ERA with 60 strikeouts in 54 2/3 innings at Class A Princeton in 2000. Making the natural progression, he advanced to Class A Charleston in 2001 — a season highlighted by a 22-inning scoreless streak — before missing all of 2002, when he had his surgery to reconstruct his left shoulder that had a torn labrum, a frayed rotator cuff and inflammation.

“They shaved some bone and then they shrunk the capsule to the shoulder that holds the joint,” Ridgway said. “They don’t even do that anymore — so it’s hit or miss. I was one of the few lucky ones.”

Ridgway returned to action in 2003, then moved to the bullpen in 2004, and, of course, another surgery followed.

“I think it was just a change in throwing every day or a lot more often — I don’t know — but my elbow, there were some issues there,” Ridgway said. “There was some cartilage built up in the back of my elbow. They went in and scoped it. It was supposed to be four to six weeks. It ended up being like eight, 10 months. That was when the new regime came to Tampa. I’m real fortunate that the management here has let me have another chance.”

Now, Ridgway’s head and body are right. The 26-year-old is healthy and he likes being in the bullpen.

“If you’re in the bullpen and you’ve had a bad day, you can always counter it the next day, which is good,” Ridgway said. “The worst thing about the bullpen is if you have one really bad day, it takes months to fix it. If you’re going well, you always want to get into the game. And there’s always a possibility you’ll get into every game. That’s my favorite thing.”

Ridgway split time between Double-A Montgomery and Triple-A Durham in 2006, and he thrived at both stops. While pitching for the Biscuits, Ridgway went 1-0 with a 2.33 ERA in 16 appearances. In addition, he had 29 strikeouts in 19 1/3 innings with just seven walks. Ridgway had 34 appearances for the Bulls, where he went 1-4 with a 3.03 ERA and 38 strikeouts in 38 2/3 innings with just 13 walks.

“I was just able to get healthy again,” said Ridgway when asked about his success. “I felt like I had all the stuff to get guys out. But I couldn’t really put anybody away. I was fine getting ahead. So the past year or two, I just really focused on location, and then I could put them away with other things other than a power fastball. For the most part, being healthy is the No. 1 thing for getting guys out.”

Ridgway believes “location is the best pitch in baseball.” Such sentiments could go a long way in an organization that saw its bullpen allow a Major League-low 15.01 baserunners per nine innings.

“To start everything off, you’re going to have to locate your fastball,” Ridgway said. “And 95 percent of the guys ride that. There are certain guys who have changeups and everything else. But from Day 1, when you’re 7 years old and taught to pitch, you want to be able to throw a fastball for a strike. I feel like since I got healthy, I’ve been able to do that more often than I’ve ever been able to.”

Ridgway’s repertoire includes a four-seam fastball, a curveball and a changeup.

“I feel like if I want to get guys out, I don’t have a specific out pitch,” Ridgway said. “It’s all about how I set them up to throw the pitch I put them away with.”

The Rays’ bullpen is wide open this spring. Jon Switzer was the only left-hander used in the bullpen in 2006, so that could be a battle, or Ridgway might endear himself enough to become a setup man.

“I like his competitiveness,” Rays executive vice president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman said. “He’s not afraid to pitch inside. I like the way he’s able to pitch to left-handers or right-handers, which allows him to be a full-inning pitcher.”

Ridgway said he feels confident in his ability.

“I’ve worked really hard,” Ridgway said. “If it’s in the cards [to make the team], that’s great. I’ve worked really hard and I try to do as much as I can every day to stay healthy, and we’ll see where it goes from there.”

By uga-brave

January 18, 2008 3:11 AM | Link to this

metro man,

how did it feel when kenny rogers threw the last ball to a man that swings at everything.

we really dont hate the mets, as much as we hated BOBBY V.

the braves have never lost a one on one confrontation with the mets.

we have beat you when it mattered, as for now, you guys are just like the fish, or the nats.

just another team.

get over yourself, you are not relevant. you play in the minor leagues of NEW YORK. you are not the yankees, all you are is a bunch of gold chain wearin, blue jean short wearin, wife beatin, second rate fans.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves In 2008)

January 18, 2008 3:17 AM | Link to this

Hey metromutt , how’s that Scott Kazmir for Bartolome Fortunato and Victor Zambrano trade working out for you guys ?

Remember him , the 1st round pick in the Mets 2002 draft , the fifteenth player taken overall.

Where are Bartolome Fortunato and Victor Zambrano these days ?

Those two must have really done well.

By Metropolitan Man

January 18, 2008 3:26 AM | Link to this

Not relevant Uga-brave. Please, when was the last season the braves were relevant. 1 team on the incline, 1 team on the decline….the standings the past few years will tell you which team team is which. The stankees are relevant because we now know how many players cheated for rings in their franchise. Now they are a laughing stock like the braves will be!!!

By Coach (Lets Go Braves In 2008)

January 18, 2008 3:33 AM | Link to this

uga-brave , the Braves problems last season centered around the starting rotation. With the additions of Glavine and Jurrjens , the emergence of Jeff Bennett and Jo-Jo Reyes….the Braves appear to have fixed this problem.

Lets not forget the unknown commodity that is Mike Hampton , he figures into the picture.

While the Braves obviously overpaid for Jeff Ridgway , it was and is a rather minor trade.

Look at the big picture , I have. My conclusion is , this is unquestionably , a playoff team.

By Metropolitan Man

January 18, 2008 3:57 AM | Link to this

The braves have always been a playoff team, they just dont know how to repeat being a Championship team. The trades you guys have made the past what….5 season has garnered big name trades who play for 1, maybe 2 seasons and then get the heck out of dodge. You guys give up great talent for great possiblities and vise versa because you have to be so creative to make up for the lack of funds. I shutter to think if you guys had an unlimited payroll but becasue you dont, I expect you guys to keep up with the status quo…missing the playoffs.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves In 2008)

January 18, 2008 4:35 AM | Link to this

The Mets will miss the playoffs in 2008 , the Braves will not.

By David-ATL14

January 18, 2008 6:23 AM | Link to this

Just to clear up some stated confusion, Ridgway goes on to the 40 man roster with this move. Braves 40 man is full. Lillibridge will be invited to camp as a NRI.

Absolutely no reason to place him on the 40 Man until he breaks camp with the parent club.

By that time both Gonzales and lerew can be placed on the 60 Day DL thus opening up 2 spots on the 40 man roster without making frivilous moves.

By Shaun

January 18, 2008 9:21 AM | Link to this

Metropolitan Man, yeah, there are so many teams out there that are consistent playoff contenders year in and year out, aren’t there? And so many teams have unlimited resources, don’t they? At least the Braves compete with a fairly modest payroll? What do the Mets do with all their resources? Let’s see, they were horrible in the early to mid ’90s, they consistently lost to the Braves until the mid ’00s, and over the past few seasons they’ve choked in the playoffs and historically blew a division lead.

I hate getting into these discussions because fans obviously can’t control the quality of their team but I have to say something because your perspective is so screwed up.

By David O'Brien

January 18, 2008 9:31 AM | Link to this

David-ATL, thank you. Getting Lillibridge on the 40-man isn’t an issue, whatsoever. Gonzalez won’t be back until at least late mid-June, and more likely around the All-Star break….

Coach, fine job getting that Ridgway story up. Doing my work for me. Appreciated.

By DAP

January 18, 2008 9:32 AM | Link to this

uga-brave im not rationalizing, or trying to cope. thats just my assessment.

met man your post was full of errors and not even really worth responding to, but just two things…your glavine=el duque statement…ridiculous. glavine pitched 50 more innings last year, made ten more starts, won four more games, and is clearly a much better pitcher. if el duque could ever pitch 200 innings like glavine does every year, he might approach those stats.

and chuck james not a major leaguer? after 48 starts in the majors (about a year and a half) hes got 22 wins and a 4 ERA. hes waaaaay better than pelfry will ever be.

By David O'Brien

January 18, 2008 9:37 AM | Link to this

Steve McP, you should read more closely. Wren didn’t say no 20-mill players would be on the team. He said a team with an $85-90 mill payroll couldn’t have any $20 mill players.

He didn’t say anything about, say, a team with a $98 mill payroll and a player with an escalating salary that starts out at $17 mill or so.

I’m just saying, things aren’t as simple as you made them out to be. They really never are, not in this realm….

MetroMan wrote: There seems to be some confusion here about choking.

No, Metro, there’s not. Not here, there’s not. The Mets’ late-September collapse was the worst since the advent of division play, the biggest lead blown in a stretch drive. No confusion. That’s choking.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves in 2008)

January 18, 2008 9:38 AM | Link to this

Are the Braves done rebuilding the roster yet ?

Frank Wren has apparently fulfilled all of the stated goals of the Braves.

By David O'Brien

January 18, 2008 9:46 AM | Link to this

small salary dump by liberty (gonna spend millions on the braves) so if chipper goes down who is gonna play thirduga-brave

What are you talking about? Aybar would’ve made the major league minimum, or perhaps $5,000 more than the minimum, after missing the entire 2007 season. How can replacing a minimum-salary player be a salary dump? Whoever’s on the roster in his place will make the minimum or slightly more. Prado will make a little more than the minimum.

Oh, and you asked who’s gonna serve as backup infielders? The move could well open a spot for Lillibridge, the player that at least half the folks on this blog have been pining to have on the roster all winter.

It could be Prado and Lillibridge until Infante gets back in early April, then Infante and one of those two. If Lillibridge impresses, he could stay for the long term.

By Shaun

January 18, 2008 9:55 AM | Link to this

TennesseePaul, I tend to agree with you. Guess they think Ridgway can fill the role Mahay filled in ‘07 right away; they traded away a backup and a prospect for a guy they think will help them right away, I suppose. Ridgway did K over 8/9 in the minors and only gave up .43 HR/9. And maybe they were just trying to give Aybar a change of scenery with his personal problems. Of course don’t know if that really makes any sense since it’s not like he was with the Braves while dealing with these problems.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves in 2008)

January 18, 2008 10:04 AM | Link to this

HA HA O’Brien. There is no way I could ever do your job. Sometimes I find articles online and share them with the rest of the denizens if they pertain to the subject at hand.

By Shaun

January 18, 2008 10:09 AM | Link to this

uga-brave, If Chipper goes down, does it matter much who replaces him, as long as it’s not someone who is going to cost the Braves (i.e., as long as he is/they are more valuable than a fringe-type player)?…unless he’s out long-term, in which case the Braves would probably have to make another move anyway or just deal with subpar offense at third.

But I think Prado and Lillibridge are plenty to keep the Braves afloat if Chipper goes down, especially considering the offense at other positions; most teams can’t boast the offense the Braves will likely have at catcher, secondbase and short.

By Hammy the Brave

January 18, 2008 10:30 AM | Link to this

Metro Man,

I think it’s so cute how you come on a Braves’ blog and express your frustrations with your Muts, by “tranposing” them on the Braves. No matter how you slice it, the Braves have been the more consistent and successful team since 1991. You talk about choking, but even you should realize below .500 finishes are considered failures.

I’ve been to NY a couple of times, and even saw Buddy Carlyle beat your Muts last your at Muts field, so I’m familiar with the NY sports “state of mind”. If you continue to use that “state of mind” when coming onto this Braves blog, you’ll only be adding to your already interminable frustration you deal with for your Muts. By that way of “thinking”, all sports teams are losers if they don’t win the “big one”. Therefore not only have your Muts been losers since 1991, since they haven’t won the “big one” since then, but also the Yankettes are too, since 2000.

Welcome to the real world of sports(not your delusion)

Hammy the Brave

By Braveheart

January 18, 2008 10:34 AM | Link to this

thanks for the article coach. sounds like ridgway must have talent if the rays were willing to expend 8+ years and all that money on medical bills on him.

still don’t like the trade. it is a minor trade though. but i would rather have aybar. sounds like it may be put up or shut up time for the little bridge.

kinda funny that the rays would want to trade for a depressed person and put the depressed person inside of a dome with no sunlight.

seems to me that putting a depressed person inside of a dome with no sunlight would only perpetuate the depression.

By DAP

January 18, 2008 10:46 AM | Link to this

shaun if chipper goes down, it will obviously impact the team in a negative way. im hoping that chipper just misses starts here and there, and doesnt have to go on the DL at all. if he does have to go on the 15 day, i think we might see escobar playing third and lillibridge at short.

By flange1

January 18, 2008 10:46 AM | Link to this

Morning All,

Interesting trade!! I thought Aybar was going to be the second IF backup mainly because of his bat. This leads me to believe that the Braves have more faith in Prado and Lillibridge than I thought they did. I really thought Prado was the odd man out

This move could lead to the Braves breaking camp with 2 backup OF B Jones/Diaz and Anderson and 2 IF backups Lillibridge and Prado. When Infante is ready, the decision can be made if Anderson, Prado or Lillibridge is sent down.

Hopefully the LHRP can be of help….

By David O'Brien

January 18, 2008 10:47 AM | Link to this

Braveheart, good point about the dome formerly known as Suncoast. I’m depressed just thinking about interleague games I’ve covered there, including the epic annual series between the Marlins and D-Rays, which is just behind Yankees-Red Sox for passion and tradition.

By Thrillhouse44

January 18, 2008 10:48 AM | Link to this

Losing probably perpetuates depression too, Braveheart.

By David O'Brien

January 18, 2008 10:51 AM | Link to this

Coach, I wasn’t being sarcastic. I do appreciate you finding that story. I would’ve done a google later today and tried to find such stories on Ridgway, but you already got it up there for the good folks (and me). Thanks. Again, not being sarcastic (in this rare instance).

By BB FAN

January 18, 2008 10:53 AM | Link to this

Metropolitan Man,

You said, “There seems to be some confusion here about choking. Making history by choking like the METS did only cost them a CHANCE at the playoffs. Choking 13 out of 14 years is more like a rite of passage that has closed up. You really think 1 year of not making the playoffs (something us METS fans have learned to endure in the past) is equivalent to multiple exits (many in the 1st round by wild card winners) in the playoffs?”

There’s no confusion here. You are the one confused. You believe that it’s worst for a team to make the playoffs but not win the World Series for 13 of 14 years than a team that DOESN”T make the playoffs 13 of 16 years and DOESN’T win the World Series at all.

Let’s see, as a fan, which one would I want my team to be… A team in contention every year and wins a World Series once in the last 16 years OR a team in contention in just 3 years out of 16 and DOESN’T win the World Series either?

That’s a real easy choice…for most fans.

Now your claim of 1 year not making the playoffs is giving the Mets way too much credit. How do get just 1 year. The Mets DIDN’T make the playoffs in 1991, 1992, 1993, 1994 (under .500 when stike started), 1995, 1996, 1997, 1998, 2001, 2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, and 2007. That’s 14 years of not making the playoffs, not 1 year. Hell, I’ll even give you 1994 because the season was lost to the strike. So that’s 13 years!!! Not 1 year! Or are the Mets excused from all of those years of futility for some reason?

By BabyGoatEater

January 18, 2008 11:00 AM | Link to this

This trade just screams about the rising price of bullpen help. If Ridgway ends up pitching 40-60 innings with a 4 era, then this trade is a good one. The price of pitching is up, folks. It’s only going to get worse. I say give this trade 6 months and we will all see the return was much better than a utility guy and a minor league infeilder. Tryin to play devil’s advocate here.

By BabyGoatEater

January 18, 2008 11:00 AM | Link to this

This trade just screams about the rising price of bullpen help. If Ridgway ends up pitching 40-60 innings with a 4 era, then this trade is a good one. The price of pitching is up, folks. It’s only going to get worse. I say give this trade 6 months and we will all see the return was much better than a utility guy and a minor league infeilder. Tryin to play devil’s advocate here.

By BabyGoatEater

January 18, 2008 11:00 AM | Link to this

This trade just screams about the rising price of bullpen help. If Ridgway ends up pitching 40-60 innings with a 4 era, then this trade is a good one. The price of pitching is up, folks. It’s only going to get worse. I say give this trade 6 months and we will all see the return was much better than a utility guy and a minor league infeilder. Tryin to play devil’s advocate here.

By BabyGoatEater

January 18, 2008 11:00 AM | Link to this

This trade just screams about the rising price of bullpen help. If Ridgway ends up pitching 40-60 innings with a 4 era, then this trade is a good one. The price of pitching is up, folks. It’s only going to get worse. I say give this trade 6 months and we will all see the return was much better than a utility guy and a minor league infeilder. Tryin to play devil’s advocate here.

By BabyGoatEater

January 18, 2008 11:00 AM | Link to this

This trade just screams about the rising price of bullpen help. If Ridgway ends up pitching 40-60 innings with a 4 era, then this trade is a good one. The price of pitching is up, folks. It’s only going to get worse. I say give this trade 6 months and we will all see the return was much better than a utility guy and a minor league infeilder. Tryin to play devil’s advocate here.

By Shaun

January 18, 2008 11:00 AM | Link to this

DAP, no doubt a Chipper injury would hurt the team. But as long as it’s not long-term, I think Prado and Lillebridge, the rest of the offense and the seemingly improved rotation can keep them afloat. The Braves have offensive depth. The just have to stay away from serious, long-term injuries and hope their pitching is consistent (like pretty much every other team).

By AdirondackDave

January 18, 2008 11:01 AM | Link to this

Dave - Thanks for the morning chuckle about the Marlins and Devil Rays “rivalry.”

By flange1

January 18, 2008 11:01 AM | Link to this

Metro Dude,

Last year you came here and were at least reasonable, so far this year, you are a new Mets Drooler.

Please delude yourself all you want about chocking. The Mets choke last year was incredible, I guess it really was AMAZING!

Don’t try to spout about the Braves choking 14 out of 15 times. That is about the dumbest thing I have ever heard in my life.

Delude yourself all you want about Pedro. Yes he WAS a great pitcher, but even before this last injury he liked to take a month off in the summer. When was the last time he pitched 200 innings? Sorry didn’t hear that WHEN?

Compare Pedro to Hamton all you want, but Pedro to Smoltz? Are you on crack?

Oh and Maine is equal to Hudson? Really in what world are you living in? Please give us the stats to back that one up.

El Ducke is equal to Glavine..Really, since when? Was he last year? Was he the year before? Is he really going to be a starter this year of in the GREAT Mets BP?

And what is this crap about Pelfry and James? Pelfry is a falling prospect. James is a vet. Lames has experiece and a winning record in the Majors, how about Pelfry?

It is incredible some of the things that you have written in the last couple of weeks.

What is next, Delgado is way better than Tex?

Alou is younger than Frenchy?

Shea is the most beautiful stadium in the world?

Good luck on that dude…

By eware

January 18, 2008 11:02 AM | Link to this

This trade kinda reminds me of the trade in the movie Almost Famous - where Penny Lane is traded to Humble for 50 bucks and a case of Heineken. Don’t ask me why.

Hell, I’d trade 50 bucks and a case of Heine for Kate Hudson any day. HELLO!

By uga-brave

January 18, 2008 11:04 AM | Link to this

i know it is a minor trade, but it finally looked like the braves had a quality bench.

gotta think the braves must of found out some things they did not like about aybar off the field.

with infante missing most or all of the spring it sure looks like lillibridge will get a ton of at bats this spring.

dob, i realize it probably had nothing to do with salary, but it sure feels like we got rooked or dumped damaged goods.

By DAP

January 18, 2008 11:04 AM | Link to this

flange1 This move could lead to the Braves breaking camp with 2 backup OF B Jones/Diaz and Anderson and 2 IF backups Lillibridge and Prado.

there is still no room for two backup out fielders, unless we dont have either a 1st base backup or a back up catcher.

that is, unless your thinking the back up catcher could also back up 1st (lopez).

it could be the regular 8 plus 12 pitchers, plus lopez to back up C and 1B, prado to backup 3B and 2B, liliibridge for SS, and B jones and anderson for 4th and 5th outfield.

i dont think this is how it will go down though. i think bobby will want separate back ups for catcher and 1st.

i think well see lillibridge taking on infante’s role completely, including backing up center field in a pinch.

By flange1

January 18, 2008 11:13 AM | Link to this

DAP,

I believe that Thorman is gone. I think Diaz will be the backup 1B. Maybe if Lopez is the backup C he can also help out at 1B.

I think Anderson wins out over Thorman because he can backup all 3 OF spots and he he a good base runner. I can see Bobby using him alot as a pinch runner.

Thorman is totally 1 dimensional. He can hit for power period. His defense is average and he doesn’t hit for average. I see him moving on..

You?

By Overlord

January 18, 2008 11:14 AM | Link to this

Metrodumb i dont think you should be posting anything trying to support a team that owns the record for the worst collapse in professional sports history.

I recommend you that you wait until your MUTS show some balls on the field and i dont mean baseballs.

As far as i can remember that marvelous Muts pitching staff totally collapsed in sept. 2007. Probably they will have that psychological ghost haunting them all of 2008. And the pressure Randolph will have from day 1 surely will help him make smarter moves.

By DAP

January 18, 2008 11:17 AM | Link to this

uga-brave gotta think the braves must of found out some things they did not like about aybar off the field.

are you rationalizing, uga-brave?

By lance

January 18, 2008 11:21 AM | Link to this

So, is Wren now officially Retarted?

By ncscoots

January 18, 2008 11:29 AM | Link to this

I believe that Thorman is gone. I think Diaz will be the backup 1B

If you think the Braves see Diaz as a potential replacement for Tex in 2009, that might be true. But, in most other scenarios, Thorman makes the club.

By uga-brave

January 18, 2008 11:34 AM | Link to this

dap,

i moved on to the bargaining stage.

By Overlord

January 18, 2008 11:34 AM | Link to this

Sorry but Lopez wont be playing 1B for braves……not a chance.

By DAP

January 18, 2008 11:37 AM | Link to this

flange1 what i WANT to happen and what i THINK will happen arent the same.

first, ill say that i havent decided weather id rather have lopez or pena back up cathcer, because i dont know how lopez’s bat will be, but lets assume he hits well in spring training.

i really like your senerio, because the need for a backup 1st is minimal, and really is just in case of emergency. i would keep lopez nad mkae him backup catcher and give him starts at 1st base when tex needed a breather. i would use diaz as emergency 1B, never to start a game, but just to move there for a few innings if someone gets hurt. hes emergency catcher as well, i think. i would have anderson to play out field and pinch run, b jones to spell left and right field, lillibridege and prado(until infante comes back)

so thats what i would LIKE to see happen, just like you.

what i think WILL happen is what i said earlier, thorman will make the team, lopez, lillibridge and prado, and b jones as 4th outfielder.

thats not what i want, but i think thats what will happen.

By Hammy the Brave

January 18, 2008 11:40 AM | Link to this

TennPaul,

I have concerns about both of Wren’s last 2 trades, but especially the one with Tampa. IMO, he’s gotten into a habit of “throwing in” a second player on our side, when it doesn’t appear he needs to. I would have liked him to have gotten a second player “thrown in” by the other team, such as failed Dodger prospect 3B-OF Joel Guzman from Tampa, to give us potential right-handed power at Richmond.

Granted, the trade with Tampa was more minor, but it seems to me both teams traded problem players(injury vs. drug/character), for each other. I wasn’t the world’s biggest Aybar fan, because even though he can hit, and pinchhit well, he doesn’t seem to have the power to be a real longterm backup to Chipper(which we still need).

According to Baseball America’s 2007 Prospect book, Ridgeway does throw in the low 90’s, up to 94, with a breaking ball(slurvy) and change, and has the ability to get both righties and lefties out.

However, I’d rather have a lefty with some real ML experience. What do you think about the Marlins lefty Reynel Pinto? He has about 2 yrs of Ml experience and righties and lefties seem to hit about the same off of him.

Also, don’t you think the Braves are short on righty power in the OF, or in general? I’d like to see FW trade for Juan Rivera, who has become forgotten with the Angels. I’m not so sure that Brandon Jones will be a true power/speed guy, plus I think he needs more time at Richmond this year.

Have a good one,

Hammy the Brave

By Efrim

January 18, 2008 11:50 AM | Link to this

All this talk about Tex leaving, and for good reason, but Rafael Soriano is also a free agent at the end of the season. If he has a similar year like he just had, add on to it 35-40 saves, he is going to get a 4 year contract worth 8-10 million a year. He might be worth it. Of course, who knows how he will respond in the closer’s role. Probably well. At least I think he will.

By DAP

January 18, 2008 11:50 AM | Link to this

overlord Sorry but Lopez wont be playing 1B for braves……not a chance.

even as a backup? why not? i know hes hardly ever played there…neither has diaz…no to him as well?

By Daybed Wagmoe

January 18, 2008 11:52 AM | Link to this

MetroMan: There seems to be some confusion here about choking. Making history by choking like the METS did only cost them a CHANCE at the playoffs. Choking 13 out of 14 years is more like a rite of passage that has closed up.

Ohhhhh — so since they only missed a chance at the playoffs, it’s not as bad of a choke as getting to the playoffs and being eliminated 13/14 times.

The Mets had the division in the palm of their hand. Analysts and fans were discussing who would make out the postseason rotation. They had a 7 game lead with 17 games left to play. The chances of any team blowing that lead are slim and none, but the Mets were able to do it.

You talk about the Braves’ postseason failures during their incredible run, but that’s a postseason run that anyone would say is amazing during this era of free agency and big-time players going for the buck. It’s hard to compare the Braves and Mets as choke artists when the Braves have that streak and the Mets (a team that should’ve represented the NL in the WS this year) didn’t even make the postseason with that kind of a lead.

Your team choked in a 17-game span. When a team “chokes” in the postseason, it’s far less than that. The Cubs choked in the 2003 playoffs in 2+ games — the Steve Bartman incident, followed by not winning games that Mark Prior or Kerry Wood pitched. The Braves choked in a 4-game span in ‘96 when we had a 2-0 lead over the Yankees coming back to Atlanta, and we lost the next four games. The Yankees choked in a 4-game span when Boston overcame a 3-0 deficit in 2004 ALCS.

Those are all postseason chokes — a span of 2-4 games. The Mets choked in a span of 17 games. 17 GAMES. Call me crazy, but if I were a Mets fan, I would be more satisfied with an NLCS-elimination by the Cardinal in 2006 than a regular season meltdown that prevented my team from even entering the playoffs in 2007. As bad as watching Carlos Beltran look at strike three with the bases loaded in 2006, that couldn’t have been as bad as watching the best team in the NL give the division away with 17 games left to play and a significant lead.

By Lew

January 18, 2008 11:52 AM | Link to this

MetroDude-I’m NOT worried about Pedro and ElDuque, but you damn well should be. If you think that after missing over a year at age 37 that Pedro will come back to the form Glavine showed last season (13 wins, 200 IP), then more power to you. Personally, I would recommend professional counseling for you, but the delusion is all yours-you’re welcome to it. I will just sit and Laugh my substantial gluteus off as the Mets come in third or fourth this year behind the injured efforts of the ancient players y’all insist on counting on. Hope you enjoy your season. It’s going to be a bad one when all you can talk about is the Braves not winning World Series Titles. Don’t you wish you had the chance more than twice in the past 20 years?

By DAP

January 18, 2008 11:58 AM | Link to this

hammy jeff francouer bats right handed, has power, and plays the outfield. really, he has the most power of any of our outfeilders.

By Random

January 18, 2008 12:04 PM | Link to this

Thanks for the article, Coach.

But let’s keep in mind that it was (a) a puff piece by the Rays MLB beat reporter on the official Rays MLB site and (2) it’s a year old.

What happened to take Ridgway so far off that happy track to the extent that he spent virtually all of 2007 in Durham?

Check out the following from the same site:

03/19/2007 10:00 AM ET By Bill Chastain / MLB.com Jeff Ridgway’s ERA is over 14.00 and he is not striking out people, but he is inducing a lot of groundouts and flyouts. What’s your feeling on him making the team now, given that they still need left-handed setup men? — Bob M., Port Angeles, Wash. Ridgway is not flashy, but I like his makeup — and it doesn’t hurt that he’s left-handed. I was impressed recently how he bounced back from a tough outing. That’s what relief pitchers have to do: forget about their last outing and look forward. Ridgway and Jon Switzer are the only two lefties competing for spots in the bullpen, which would seem to bode well for both. But Maddon has said he won’t have a lefty in the ‘pen just to have a lefty. I think a decision on Ridgway will go right down to the end of Spring Training.

03/21/2007 4:47 PM ET By Bill Chastain / MLB.com Ridgway optioned to Durham: Jeff Ridgway was optioned to Triple-A Durham on Wednesday. The left-hander, who came to camp as a candidate to win a spot in the bullpen, has struggled this spring, with an 11.12 ERA in six appearances. The move left the Rays with exactly 40 players in camp.

05/07/2007 6:44 AM ET By Bill Chastain / MLB.com Don’t you think we need a lefty out of the bullpen? What about the Rays sending Brian Stokes down and bringing up J.P. Howell? I understand that Howell is a starter, but at least the would get to face Major League batters and give the Rays the lefty that is so badly needed out of the ‘pen. — Joe H., Lakeland I don’t think they want to make Howell a reliever at this point. I’m sure they would be better off with a lefty in the bullpen, but we should rephrase that to “effective” lefty. In other words, don’t stick a lefty in the bullpen unless he actually gets out left-handers. Maybe someone like Jeff Ridgway would fit that bill. The Rays didn’t think so during Spring Training, perhaps their collective mindset will change as the season progresses.

And like Chastain says, And the guys … who are at Triple-A Durham, are pitching to Triple-A players, and not Major Leaguers. There is a huge difference.

By Overlord

January 18, 2008 12:05 PM | Link to this

lance Wren is not officially retarded. Maybe not as brilliant as JS, but you cant be that hard on him just yet. He agreed with Tex, he brought TG, he brought Kotsay (if he has a good year would become one of the best moves in recent years). Take it easy, he is not doing all this by himself and Braves still look just fine. He is not sleeping, making moves tells us that he is trying to work on solutions.

By ncscoots

January 18, 2008 12:06 PM | Link to this

I’m not so sure that Brandon Jones will be a true power/speed guy, plus I think he needs more time at Richmond this year.

Hammy, just what else exactly does Jones have left to prove in the minors?

By McFann

January 18, 2008 12:06 PM | Link to this

700?

By Lew

January 18, 2008 12:11 PM | Link to this

Overlord-Got to agree with you, Dude. No way is Javy backing up First Base. He played ONE game at first in 2005 for the Orioles-ONE (and not sure if it was even a full game)-never done it at any other point of his entire ML career. No way on the face of this earth that BC has him playing there. It just will not happen.

By Hammy the Brave

January 18, 2008 12:13 PM | Link to this

Overlord,

I think you misunderstood the exchange between Flange 1 and DAP, about Lopez. They seem to be talking about Lopez being able to backup 1B from the bench, which I think he can and should be able to do. You should want all your bench players to play more than one position, especially since Bobby seems to think we have to have a 12 man staff. Also, I wonder if this might improve B. Pena’s chance to make the Braves, if he really can play 1b, 3B, LF and RF w/o killing himself.

Hammy the Brave

By Overlord

January 18, 2008 12:16 PM | Link to this

DAP i dont think Lopez will be distracted by braves making him learn 1B. He is old, he is coming from not so good seasons, so i think they will let him concentrate on catching, helping Brian and young pitchers and try to get his swing going. Making him platoon 1B would be a huge mistake. I think Diaz is a far better option. He is quicker, younger and his bat is alive. Making an adjustment to 1B would be easier… my opinion. Let Javy try to get his act together behind the plate, dont overload him.

By Braveheart

January 18, 2008 12:23 PM | Link to this

crazy genius bobby fischer dead. herschel has multiple personalities. senile vince dooley says he has only met one of herschel’s personalities. woe is willy is playing in the depression dome. nutty britney gets visits from crazy fake shrinks. eminem has turned into an obese depressed recluse . em’s mother says slim shady is turning into fat elvis. tom cruise is the second highest ranking member of the church of crazyology, puts a tracking system in katie’s cell phone, and won’t let poor nicole see her kids. arthur blank looks more and more pathetic everday. randy moss reportedly assaults another woman. what’s the matter, randy? no meter maid to run over this time? ‘tis a crazy, crazy world we live in.

in other opinions, TMZ is the funniest show on television. those fellas are ruthless.

can’t wait for sunday. favre and my beloved big blue on the frozen tundra. it is suppossed to be one degree at game time. doesn’t get much better. poor eli don’t stand a chance in that weather. it’s gonna get fugly out there in wisconsin for ole eli. hate to say that. but it’s true. but ya never know. the jints have won their last 3 conference championships. have a feeling this one could get as ugly for the giants as the one in the plaoffs against the 85 bears when landeta whiffed on that punt.

By Braves20

January 18, 2008 12:24 PM | Link to this

Interesting few days.

If we are to believe David O’Brien (and no reason not to), our current first baseman will command $20MM a year making our decision obvious. Get a serviceable first baseman and two other valuable cogs for the same or less money.

As for Abyar to Tampa Bay - good fit and we got surprisingly more than we should have. Ridgway has struggled there but doesn’t any pitcher not named Kazmir? The Rays just don’t get it where pitching is concerned.

By TennesseePaul

January 18, 2008 12:29 PM | Link to this

Ridgway’s Minor League Splits:

Split vs. Lefties

Season  AB AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS
2005    87 .276 .333 .345 .678
2006    87 .149 .267 .195 .463
2007    87 .172 .250 .241 .491
Total  261 .199 .284 .261 .544

Split vs. Righties

Season  AB  AVG  OBP  SLG  OPS
2005    81 .247 .442 .395 .838
2006   165 .236 .301 .339 .640
2007   144 .271 .367 .458 .825
Total  390 .251 .359 .395 .754

So those are his splits since he’s come back from injury and been a reliever. He was supposed to contend for a relief spot in the Rays pen but he didn’t make the cut. I question his ability to “get guys out on both sides of the plate”. He looks more like a situational lefty. His progress from year to year can be seen in these splits. He looks to be stabalizing as a good lefty specialist as time goes on but not so much with the righties.

In the majors it didn’t really seem to matter. His lone out was against a righty, but he was lit up from both sides of the plate. He had an infinite ERA against Lefties and a 54 ERA against righties. I’ll give him this much though, the 1 out he got came in the clinching game for the Yankees. Ridgway came in to the game in the 6th and gave up 3 straight singles and a run scored… then the mighty A-Rod walked up to the plate. Ridgway threw him 3 straight balls away, came in on him for a called strike. Planted one down the middle which A-Rod fouled off and then zipped one in again at belt high for good measure… A-Rod popped it up. That’s it. That’s Ridgway’s first out. An A-Rod pop up on a full count. After that he gave up another run on a single and was pulled. The next pitcher gave up a single and a run which was billed to Ridgway. At least he got an out…

By Hammy the Brave

January 18, 2008 12:31 PM | Link to this

DAP,

I’m talking about losing right-handed power in the big picture, trying to replace Andrew’s power loss, in other words.

That’s another reason I may not be as high on Brandon Jones, as others are, right now.

Hammy the Brave

By Braveheart

January 18, 2008 12:36 PM | Link to this

let’s just hope the braves never need to use a backup first baseman. and never need a backup third baseman for more than the 25 to 30 games we know chipper will miss.

By Bryan

January 18, 2008 12:39 PM | Link to this

Wow! See ya Aybar … remind me to never miss a meeting with Bobby Cox …

I have a copy of REM’s live rehearsal show in dublin … good good good stuff. Fans of early REM should like this disk - if the music translates from the stage to the studio (something REM promises to do).

Everything from the band (and what i am hearing now) say’s “faster” I just hope fast doesn’t = Monster-esque.

This dublin show sounds like a lot of early bootlegs i have heard (relaxed, straightforward, rocksteady music).

I am going to be interested if we heard a little more in the future about this trade. Was management really that upset at Aybar? Is Lil’bridge really held in THAT high of esteem? Man - those back to back trades of LaRoche and Horacio for Lil’Bridge - Gonzolez and Soriano - wow. (though the Pirate trade is a little more balanced).

I think the Aybar trade has a lot to do with options and pitcher depth than immediate results… not to mention skipping out on your boss and your bosses boss!

By TennesseePaul

January 18, 2008 12:40 PM | Link to this

Hammy: The right handed power will come from Francoeur. I think he’ll be the only power threat in the outfield. The issue should be more about the lack of power instead of which side of the plate it comes from. Francoeur’s power really isn’t as big as other teams outfielders. Chipper and Teixeira are the only ones with big power. The rest it appears are 20+ or less HR power. So if Chipper or Teixeira go down this line up become pretty weak.
It all depends on Francoeur though. He says he has been hitting the weights to increase his power. I believe him. Last year I was suspect on his off season comments. He had said he wanted to improve his average and approach at the plate. And he did. This off season he said he wants to maintain and improve that while adding power. So I think there is a strong chance he’ll get back up to the 30 HR range. I hope anyway. His bat will be leaned on a little more this year if/when another big bat goes down.

By Overlord

January 18, 2008 12:48 PM | Link to this

Hammy the Brave, i didnt misunderstand the point. Javy aint playing 1B. You can take that to the bank. You will see Chipper baking up 1B before you see Javy.

By rich brave

January 18, 2008 12:50 PM | Link to this

For those of you surmising about Prado and Lillibridge, I would say Prado has leather at least average in ability, and playing in some fill-ins should show improvement. Lillibridge brings above average glove now and is ready to play. Both bats are the problem, but remember Ricnmond is tough on hitters. Either could surprise on the upside in that catagory. Before these recent IF developments, I thought Prado would return to Richmond. I still think so. Of the two, I think Lillibridge would remain in Atlanta, even though he has the furthest to go hitting wise. Will enjoy this last season of the Braves. I plan to go A LOT. I certainly hope I wouln’t be alone.

Richmond supports only NASCAR on the major league level. There’s no reason the area wouldn’t turn out 500,000 plus every year if handled like the Braves have done in the Atlanta area.

Listening Washington? You could saturate this area. We’ve got some local college kids in the bigs. Justin Verlander. Brandon Inge. Shaun Casey. Adam Dunn. Ryan Zimmerman. David Wright, just to name a few. Lots of others. Baseball is alive and well here at the grassroots. We just need more than a Sportsbackers club to promote change amongst our political infrastructure.

By Overlord

January 18, 2008 12:54 PM | Link to this

Hammy the Brave…… AJs power??? good god, LOL, if there is something braves aint gonna mis is AJs “bat”, and i dont think fans will either.

By chris

January 18, 2008 12:54 PM | Link to this

When Lopez was with the Orioles, he spent some time working out at 1B, so I think that makes sense that he would spend some time at 1st.

But I don’t think he’s making the team. Being invited to Spring Training gives him a chance, after being away for a year, to prove that he can still play for someone. Inviting him was to do him a favor as much as anything else.

By TBrave

January 18, 2008 1:10 PM | Link to this

chris

RE: your 12:54 PM post about Javy - you are so wrong

By Thrillhouse44

January 18, 2008 1:21 PM | Link to this

Interesting link to the Eminem story, Braveheart. Seems to me that Debbie is trying to sensationalize things to make money off her book. At least that’s what I hope.

BTW, when did you develop DAP’s love for the lowercase?

By TNRON

January 18, 2008 1:28 PM | Link to this

Rich Brave: I trust your opinion but I wonder why you say Lillibridge has farther to go than Prado.He was already promoted to Richmond from Pearl when Mississippi came to my hometown to play the Smokies.His stats didnt seem too bad,The SO/AB ratio didnt indicate he was overmatched.Again you have seen him in person and I havent.

By Lee in S. GA

January 18, 2008 1:33 PM | Link to this

I feel like Thorman will remain with the team unless a left-handed power threat is acquired for the bench. Besides him and Lopez (providing he DOES even make the team) the Braves appear to be short handed with proven power off the bench. Especially in terms of a lefty batting. Last year with players like Orr, Harris and Woodward it makes ones realized how even more important bench players are to a team. None of these players exactly intimated the opposing pitchers

By flange1

January 18, 2008 1:33 PM | Link to this

Overlord,

My point of the Thorman deal is that Andeson has more tools to help the club as bench player than Thorman does.

With the awful year that Thorman had last year, It is hard for me to want to give him a roster spot as an all or nothing pinch hitter. It would seem that we would be keeping him JUST IN CASE we could not resign Tex.

I would rather trade Thorman, let Diaz and Lopez back up Tex and then regroup at first if we can’t sign Tex.

I really don’t think we will need an active 1B backup because Tex will play LOTS!

By Luther

January 18, 2008 1:37 PM | Link to this

I am confused about Mike Gonzalez’s deal. Does the insurance cover his new contract while he is on the 60 day DL, even knowing that he will start out on the DL? Would an arbitration hearing award a player with a contract of over 2 mil when you are hoping for a half season at best. Would he have gotten a bigger contract if they knew he was going to play the whole year? Just curious.

By David O'Brien

January 18, 2008 1:38 PM | Link to this

NEW BLOG is up

By DAP

January 18, 2008 1:41 PM | Link to this

Lew your right. javy has two innings at first. diaz almost has three innings.

Let Javy try to get his act together behind the plate, dont overload him.

ok, i’ll try not to. :-)

By David O'Brien

January 18, 2008 1:44 PM | Link to this

TennPaul, those lefty stats on Ridgway not complete in 2007, for some reasons. I looked at those same stats that you did, and they have him four innings short. His lefty OBA was actually .163….

Lance, you should learn to spell before writing a post like the one you did at 11:21.

By Braveheart

January 18, 2008 2:07 PM | Link to this

AJs power??? good god, LOL, if there is something braves aint gonna mis is AJs “bat”, and i dont think fans will either.

Overlord Gimme a break. You are better than that. AJ has had two bad years in his career. He was never a true legit cleanup hitter. That’s why Bobby rarely hit him cleanup for the first 10 years of his career and did not officially make him a cleanup hitter until halfway through 2005 when Andruw forced his hand by hitting 50 homers. But, enough already, with this pathetic revisionist history that Andruw was a bum. I’m getting so sick and tired of reading everyone on here say that. He was not a cleanup hitter and he was not a hitter worthy of $18 million dollars but the guy was a HOF talent and defender and a star hitter. And he stunk last year but he was the best defensive centerfielder and the most productive centerfielder in the entire major leagues over the past 8 seasons.

In the last 8 years combined (2000-2007), in the entire major leagues, the Braves have, by far, the most home runs out of centerfield. The Braves have received 301 home runs in centerfield over the past 8 years. The next closest team in the entire major leagues is the Cardinals with 253. 48 less homers over 8 years, an average of 6 less homers a year. The average MLB team got 152 home runs during that 8 year time span, half of what the Braves had in center with Andruw out there.

In the last 8 years combined, the Braves also led the entire major leagues in RBIs from centerfield with 855. The next closest team is the Cardinals with 826. The next closest team to that is the Yankees with 778. The average MLB team got 623 RBIs during that 8 year time span from center, 232 less than the Braves got in center during that time span.

In the last 8 years combined, the Braves also led the major leagues in total bases from centerfield with 2518. THe average MLB team got 2182 total bases from center during that 8 year time span, 436 less than the Braves got in center during that time span.

But he’s gone, and as Braves fans love to do, they trash someone as garbage on the way out the door. Spanks for the memories.

By chris

January 18, 2008 9:11 PM | Link to this

Right on, Braveheart.

By Jeff

January 26, 2008 10:54 PM | Link to this

Does anybody really think Tom Glavine will make that big of a difference in wins?. I love Tom Terriffic as much as anyone, but he is on the down hill slide. The only reason he is here is to retire in a Braves uniform period. Lets talk about Kotsey. We trade for a guy comming off of back surgery. The first good dive for a line drive or collission, or hard slide in to a bag and lets just hold our breath. And oh Yea!, Lets dont forget the Goldenboy Chipper Jones. Let’s hope he gets through the first week without him having an ingrown toenail or bruises his ego or something. I am a huge Braves Fan, lets be real. When Chipper gets hurt this year, and he will, when Kotsey’s back finally cant taken anymore, when the season finally starts to wear on McCanns knees. It will get ugly again. We need a Bullpen, I’m not sure but I think Hampton rolled over in his sleep and fractured his hip or something. I hope there is a plan for the future, because our Brave’s as slowley starting to look like a tax write off.