Braves

By McFann

January 9, 2008 3:57 PM | Link to this

First? Didn’t think so…

By keylargo25

January 9, 2008 3:59 PM | Link to this

For some reason it never hit home today that we got a prospect who is not even mentioned as a possibility as a starter in CF and a guy who is mentioned as a potential number five starter for an All Star shortstop under contract for less than 6 million.

Compare this to what we gave up to get Tex and the trade just does not look good long term.

By DAP

January 9, 2008 4:02 PM | Link to this

efrim Adam Jones, Jeff Clement, Brandon Morrow, George Sherrill and Carlos Triunfel are the guys being talked about. Not all five…but three of them with Adam Jones being a must for the O’s.

thanx for the info. you seem to know whats going on with this, do the braves have players that compare to these? does adam jones=jordan shaefer, jeff clement=clint sammons, brandon morrow=blaine boyer, george sherrill=royce ring, and carlos triunfel=brent lillibridge?

i still kinda wish we could get a guy like that, though i know wrens aint looking.

By Mac

January 9, 2008 4:02 PM | Link to this

DOB, Patterson bats lefthanded and so would not paltoon with other lefthanded hitters.

By McFann

January 9, 2008 4:05 PM | Link to this

HOLY COW!! I was first. Dang, of all times to type “Didn’t think so”!

Those RLOB stats are almost ready. in August now.

By StingerSplash

January 9, 2008 4:05 PM | Link to this

DOB,

Are you sure about former Harrison High tailback Corey Patterson batting right handed?

By Joe Smoe

January 9, 2008 4:06 PM | Link to this

DOB…Is it possible that the Braves will try to make a trade for Kotsay and Blanton or Street. Braves take the over paid salary, and A’s get less prospects the normal for Blanton. A salary dump and rebuild move for the A’s.

It fills two spots for the Braves. The only reason I see it not working perfectly is the Left handed bat, as pointed out above.

By Shaun

January 9, 2008 4:06 PM | Link to this

DAP, how is it trivializing teamwork to say a triple should be weighed more in terms of run creation than a sac fly following that triple?

And bringing up single season results as a point seems to be a bit odd for you Payne. You love to highlight how single season results change when it suits the arguement, but here you point to 2007 AJ as a standard and norm of AJ.

Point is, you shouldn’t build around “RBI guys.” Because a guy that drives in less runs may be more valuable to your team if he gets on base more often and accrues more bases.

By David O'Brien

January 9, 2008 4:10 PM | Link to this

yes, Mac. but his numbers vs. lefty pitchers were far better than vs. righties. Those were his splits last season.

By uga-brave

January 9, 2008 4:12 PM | Link to this

DOB,

By DAP

January 9, 2008 4:13 PM | Link to this

thanx DOB, i cant wait for the news about CF to break!

By ncscoots

January 9, 2008 4:14 PM | Link to this

That’s Steve Earle singing on The Wire? How the heck did I miss that for four years?!? I recognized the song, but never knew it was Earle.

By rainman

January 9, 2008 4:14 PM | Link to this

Sorry to point it out Dave but patterson bats lefty and before this year was terrible against other lefties . I Still would love to have him I think he still has a nice upside to him plus maybe some home cooking would do him good. Thanks for your hard work this off season Dave and go Braves.

By BossLady

January 9, 2008 4:15 PM | Link to this

Well, Well Well

By uga-brave

January 9, 2008 4:16 PM | Link to this

DOB,

just dont think the braves need another left handed hitter in the lineup. could cause a ton of matchup problems late in games. now thats assuming thorman is still on the club.

By TennesseePaul

January 9, 2008 4:19 PM | Link to this

Thanks for the blog DOB. I’d rather see Kotsay than Patterson. Perhaps a deal can be swung that brings back both Blanton and Kotsay. Who knows.

From the previous blog (I posted just as DOB dropped the old and brought in the new)
Payne: DAP, actually, I’d build my team around guys that get on and hit the ball far and hard…and not “RBI guys.” The whole package is not a bunch of RBI guys because then you end up with guys like the 2007 Andruw and the 1993 Ruben Sierra.

Most times in life you don’t get the total package. Can you fill out all 9 positions with guys who do both, hit the ball hard and far and get on base a lot? Probably not. But you could go with a good mix of guys who do both or one or the other (which is what I believe most teams attempt to do, putting the high OBP guys at the top of the order followed by guys who hit hard and far to drive them in). In the case of AJ, and most “RBI guys”, I think you’ll find they hit the ball hard and far. I can’t think of any light hitting players who consistantly tally up 90+ RBI seasons.
And bringing up single season results as a point seems to be a bit odd for you Payne. You love to highlight how single season results change when it suits the arguement, but here you point to 2007 AJ as a standard and norm of AJ. Yet in the past you’ve said you’d rather have AJ than a whole list of guys others have suggested.

McFann: If everybody on a team hits triples all the time, somebody is bound to score sometime.

This is true. But nobody would win. The game has to end for a victor to be declared and it has to at least get to the 5th before the game can be called. If no batter ever makes an out the game never exits the first inning and hence you have no winner.

By DAP

January 9, 2008 4:19 PM | Link to this

keylargo25 i think the situation called for a trade of either renteria or escobar, because they couldnt both start. so would you have traded escobar, who had a great year and is almost already as good as renteria, and under your control for years to come, or renteria, who is a great player but cost like 5.5 mil more and would only be there one more year?

By True Braves Fan

January 9, 2008 4:20 PM | Link to this

Wilson, Jordan and Mondesi come to mind as outfielders tried by Braves in previous seasons. Don’t add Kotsay and Patterson to the list.

By Mark

January 9, 2008 4:22 PM | Link to this

Corey Patterson bats left handed and would be a huge waste of a roster spot, even at $500,000, let alone $3 million.

Kotsay hasn’t been above average in quite some time and would be a waste of money for a team with little payroll flexibility and several injury concerns as is.

By McFann

January 9, 2008 4:23 PM | Link to this

Ugh. Now somebody’s talkin’ about a player being too skinny?

By David O'Brien

January 9, 2008 4:24 PM | Link to this

ncscoots, it’s only been Earle singing the theme song the past two seasons. Before that, they had another theme song (can’t recall offhand, but it was also a good one).

Rainman, yes I realize that and corrected it. I was working quickly and just using his splits from last season. Went back and saw that indeed, he stunk vs. lefties before last season. Probably just a fluke one-year thing, unless he changed something fundamentally in his approach, which I doubt.

By DAP

January 9, 2008 4:24 PM | Link to this

Shaun how is it trivializing teamwork to say a triple should be weighed more in terms of run creation than a sac fly following that triple?

cause you dont get a run for a triple, even though youre only 90 feet away.

i dont think we really disagree as strongly as its sounding, we just express it in very different ways.

By GeorgetownKid

January 9, 2008 4:33 PM | Link to this

Mr. O’Brien,

With the good but not great numbers that would be expected from Kotsay or Patterson, what do you think would be realistic numbers from Anderson?

From what I have read, I think it is realistic that he has a season similar to that of Kelly Johnson. He won’t draw as many walks, but he’ll be a viable base-stealing threat.

I think that is pretty good production from a guy making the league minimum. Would the slightly better production from a free agent be worth several million dollars?

That doesn’t seem to offer the Braves a very good return-on-investment.

By Efrim

January 9, 2008 4:38 PM | Link to this

DAP

thanx for the info. you seem to know whats going on with this, do the braves have players that compare to these? does adam jones=jordan shaefer, jeff clement=clint sammons, brandon morrow=blaine boyer, george sherrill=royce ring, and carlos triunfel=brent lillibridge?

No on all counts. At least that is what scouts say. If you even believe them. Schafer and Jones is close, but I think if you polled most baseball people, they would take Adam Jones. As for Clement and Sammons, no way. Boyer doesn’t come close to Morrow. Sherrill is one of the best LHP specialists in the league and I am not too sure on Lillibridge and Truinfel. Truinfel is like Elvis Andrus. Really too young to know. Who knows? Braves ain’t getting the guy.

I figure if the Braves were to offer something, it would be Schafer, Lillibridge, Rohrbough and Hanson. Way too much to trade for a guy who will most surely sign with the Yankees or Red Sox in two seasons. Though, we did give up 5 prospects for Tex and he will be gone at the end of this season…..

By McFann

January 9, 2008 4:38 PM | Link to this

10Paul If no batter ever makes an out the game never exits the first inning and hence you have no winner.

Well, that’s one way to look at it, I guess.

By ncscoots

January 9, 2008 4:40 PM | Link to this

Before that, they had another theme song (can’t recall offhand, but it was also a good one).

I can’t recall it, either. Just goes to show that a good Waits tune can make you forget most others. :-)

By flange1

January 9, 2008 4:43 PM | Link to this

actually, I’d build my team around guys that get on and hit the ball far and hard…and not “RBI guys.” The whole package is not a bunch of RBI guys because then you end up with guys like the 2007 Andruw and the 1993 Ruben Sierra. from Shaun

Shaun, in a perfect world you are correct, all 9 players would be guys that get on base a lot and hit the ball far and hard.

Reality is more that you have some guys that get on base alot, some guys that hit the ball far and hard, some guys that do both and some guys that do neither.

My belief is that for a real baseball team not a fantasy team, you have to have a balance of the first 3. On my real team, the 1, 2 and 8 hitters get on base alot, the 3,4 and 5 guys hopefully get on base alot and hit the ball hard and far and the 6 and 7 guys either hit the ball hard and far or get on base alot.

It’s is great to talk philosophy all we want about the perfect offensive team, but in the real world, we have to settle for the players on the team and available to the team and then place them in the order that we think will maximize offensive productivity.

I know that you don’t believe that position in the batting order means alot, but on a real live team, I believe it does.

By Random

January 9, 2008 4:45 PM | Link to this

Triples vs. SF:

Y’all’re arguing apples and oranges.

A triple may or may not produce a run (or runs), whereas by definition a sac fly does produce a run. If you normalize the context of your argument (stipulating a man on third), then it’s the no-brainer that Shaun makes it out to be — of course the triple is better. If you make your argument context-free (independent of whether there are base-runners), the “sac fly” is just a fly out which may or may not bring home a run (just as a triple may or may not bring home a run), and it’s still a no-brainer, since the triple does not yield an out and leaves a man on base. Sheeeeeeesh. (Plus, a triple is more than three times as likely to produce a run than a fly out.)

(Though I’ve got to disagree with you, Shaun, when you say It’s a question of what’s more valuable, a guy who hits fly balls or a guy who gets extra-base hits — after all, most triples are fly balls that were simply not caught.)

Finally, if you go back to the initial premise as DAP does (if there’s a triple then a sac fly …), even in this limited and specific context (stipulating bases empty, and sequencing the triple before the sac fly), it’s a no-brainer, since the triple is the necessary sine qua non precursor of the sac fly. (A sac fly is possible if and only if there’s a man on third.)

By ncscoots

January 9, 2008 4:53 PM | Link to this

TPaul, we need some park-adjusted opinions on here, man, LOL.

Triples and sac flies? Can you park-adjust those? Just checking. :-)

By Random

January 9, 2008 4:54 PM | Link to this

DOB—

Au contraire, I believe that the Braves considered their major offseason work completed after they traded Ascanio for Ohman and Infante.

By Steve in DC

January 9, 2008 4:55 PM | Link to this

It’s always been “Down in the hole,” on The Wire, though they’ve typically had a different version by a different artist every single season.

By ncscoots

January 9, 2008 4:58 PM | Link to this

OK, Lord, you can take me now…I’ve lived to see “sine qua non” used on the Braves/MIB blog. :-)

By N8

January 9, 2008 5:02 PM | Link to this

THIS JUST IN:

It has been reported that David Wright’s attourneys are holding a press conference in which they will play a tape recording of a conversation between he and Roger Clemens discussing Clemens’ personal trainer injecting shots of Wright’s DNA into Clemens’ azz.

Seems Clemens wanted to be “as good as I can be, and found nobody better than David Wright to steal DNA from”.

When reached for comment, Wright said (through his attourney), that he didn’t have a problem with Clemens doing so, in fact he is flattered. But didn’t appreciate the DNA being stolen, and is suing Clemens for 500 million dollars.

As a side note, Wright’s attourney also mentioned that David Wright made the NFL ALL PRO TEAM (at 3 different positions).

By flange1

January 9, 2008 5:08 PM | Link to this

Scoots,

I liked “if and only if” better. Reminded me of Linear Equations and UGA!!!

By David O'Brien

January 9, 2008 5:11 PM | Link to this

Thanks for clearing that up, Steve.

They don’t have a different version this season — same as last year, by Earle.

By Braveheart

January 9, 2008 5:14 PM | Link to this

I also would build my team around guys who get on base as much as possible and who hit the ball hard and far as often as possible.

Everyone wants someone who can get on base and hit the ball as hard and as far as possible. Generally, that will create runs and win lots of games. But they would also like their hitters to be good situational hitters. To be able to take an outside pitch and go the other way, to draw a walk, to ground out to second so the runner on third can score, to ground out to second so the runner on second can advance to third, to be able to fly out to the deep outfield to get a runner on second over to third or to get a runner to score from third, to be able to steal a base, to be able bunt your way on to base, to be able to bunt a runner over, to be able to fake the bunt or have the defense be aware of the real potential of the bunt so the infield is somewhat drawn in and the hitter can more easily sneak a hit through the infield. Too often people want to claim it is just bad luck when a team loses a close game against an evenly matched team when it is really poor execution of those other pesky situational small ball things in the late innings that affect the outcome.

It’s hard to remember many games where the Braves executed these kinds of things well late in close games. They would often get people on base but no one could timely execute the big things or small things needed to get the run home. The Braves just don’t have enough hitters who pose those smallball threats when the situation calls for it. And Bobby Cox does not seem to care that much about it. Unless the hitter in question is Kelly Johnson. He fails to drop a bunt and is put into a platoon and yanked out of the leadoff spot.

By hk

January 9, 2008 5:16 PM | Link to this

… Conference Strengths (bar graph) based on AP poll raw data, today vs back in September …

http://www.mindspring.com/~hk3/div2007.htm

By cricket

January 9, 2008 5:17 PM | Link to this

I am going to start a team, the Homerrers, with all the hitters that are home run guys. My team will score more runs than the Tripllers, since the frequency at which a real life hitter can hit triples or different game time situations which cause a real life hitter to alter his game plan, are not the constraints. I will get all these homer hitters from the town right next to where all the Tripllers come from. Off course in this fantastic league, the RBIers will hardly score any runs as they wouldn’t know what to do when there are no base runners.

By DonCoburleone

January 9, 2008 5:21 PM | Link to this

“Then again, if they have to go with speedy rook Anderson, I think they’re prepared to do that. Unless him and Schafer both look completely overmatched this spring, which seems unlikely in Anderson’s case, given how well Anderson played in his September callup with the ‘Stros.”

Whoa DOB, no need to try and give us that warm and snuggly feeling when it comes to Josh Anderson. He projects to be (at best) a fringe major leaguer. He had an OPS slightly above .700 in his minor league career, which Bill James projects at the major league level as a .223 average, .257OBP, and a .277 Slugging %…. A .534 OPS!!! .534! I for one will trust a minor league career which spans 5 years and 1,000+AB’s over 67 at-bats in a September call-up. That is the freaking definition of small sample size right there.

I appreciate the optimism DOB, but I for one would be frightened if Anderson is starting in CF on March 31 in Washington…

By David O'Brien

January 9, 2008 5:24 PM | Link to this

GeorgetownKid, you wrote of Josh Anderson: “From what I have read, I think it is realistic that he has a season similar to that of Kelly Johnson.”

Are you kidding? GK, Kelly Johnson hit .276 with 26 doubles, 10 triples, 16 homers, 91 runs, 68 RBIs, a .375 OBP and a .457 slugging percentage.

Are you freakin’ kidding me that you really think Josh Anderson can produce anywhere even remotely similar numbers to those?

Anderson’s BEST single-season totals in five seasons in the MINORS were 26 doubles (2006), six homers (2004) and 52 RBIs (2004), and he hit .300 (.308) once in the minors, slugged as high as .390 just once, and had an OBP as high as .350 just once — and that’s in the MINORS.

And you believe he can do what Kelly Johnson did, or even remotely close to what KJ did, in Anderson’s first season in the majors?

No way. NO. WAY.

By Roger Clemens

January 9, 2008 5:25 PM | Link to this

Multiple choice question. Which of the following is the most correct about me:

a. I did not have injection relations with that woman, Ms. McNamee

b. I did have a relationship with Miss McNamee that was not appropriate. In fact, it was wrong. I misled people, including even my wife Andy. I deeply regret that.

c. I injected but did not inhale.

d. The last 10 years of my career has been a vast conspiracy led by my right wing.

By Skeeter

January 9, 2008 5:33 PM | Link to this

I am going to start a team, the Homerrers, with all the hitters that are home run guys. My team will score more runs than the Tripllers, since the frequency at which a real life hitter can hit triples or different game time situations which cause a real life hitter to alter his game plan, are not the constraints. I will get all these homer hitters from the town right next to where all the Tripllers come from. Off course in this fantastic league, the RBIers will hardly score any runs as they wouldn’t know what to do when there are no base runners.

Don’t forget to configure a walkers and an OBPers team as well. It will be fun too see how many men they can get on base without scoring.

Always remember this: The object of this silly game we call baseball is to get on base and create runs, not to actually score runs.

By JC FROM UT

January 9, 2008 5:36 PM | Link to this

DOB: Any chance the Braves look into what it would take to sign Mike Cameron? We all know he can play defense and if he can hit around .240-.250 with a little power it will be as good as AJ was last season.

By doc

January 9, 2008 5:36 PM | Link to this

i see roger finally got smart. really good post and one you should have given yourself credit for rather than rocket.

By Overlord

January 9, 2008 5:45 PM | Link to this

Where is our CF gonna hit in the lineup?

8th is my choice. Yunel should be 1st. That way he would cut down on his swing and make him even a better contact hitter. Plus he is a better baserunner than KJ. There is more of a chance to find KJ on base once he comes to bat than the other way around. I think Yunel is a better option to cover for the missing Renteria, but you cant have him batting 1st and 2nd (woooooow!!!), so 1st ill think is our best option.

By AdirondackDave

January 9, 2008 6:07 PM | Link to this

keylargo25 — The Renteria and Tex deals are not comparable. I was a big Edgar fan but his defensive skills are in decline which is not surprising. Tex is still young and conceiveably getting even better (hard to believe given his career so far).

I’m not one of those who write off Tex after ‘08. I think the Braves will make a strong and probably creative offer to him in the 20M-22M per year range. Sure maybe the Yanks or Mets dangle more money but my guess there’s a 40 maybe even 50% chance he’ll re-sign with the Braves. Some local ties work in the Braves favor somewhat.

By Luther

January 9, 2008 6:18 PM | Link to this

I saw that Earle sings this seasons’s theme on the credits. Here is what IMDB has for performer for the rest of the seasons(same song throughout): 1.Blind Boys of Alabama 2.Tom Waits 3.Neville Brothers 4. Ivan Ashford, Markel Steele, Cameron Brown, Tariq Al-Sabir and Avery Bargasse

This could be wrong, but I’m pretty sure it sounded like the Neville Brothers in season 3. Agree, its the best show on in my opinion.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves in 2008)

January 9, 2008 6:19 PM | Link to this

O’Brien , I hate to blow holes in your Mark Kotsay theory. But , the man is a D.L. candidate waiting to happen. His back injury has been an ongoing ordeal since the middle of the 2005 season. He has missed the better part of 150 games since June 5th 2005 due to what is pretty much the same thing and I’ll be more than happy to post his injury history.

Basically , the man has been to Oakland what Hampton has been for the Braves. Don’t get me wrong , Kotsay is a great talent and clubhouse presence who would have a positive impact on the younger players with his all out style of play and bazooka for a throwing arm.

If Oakland were to eat the vast majority of his 7 million dollar contract in 2008 , give him to the Braves for next to nothing and persuade Kotsay to forego his limited no-trade clause , sure why not.

As for Cory Patterson , please tell me you are joking. His 5 to 1 strikeout/walk ratio is brutal. Career .298 OBP , ridiculous. Career .258 BA , putrid. Did I mention the fact that I hate underachievers. (Patterson was the 3rd pick in the 1998 draft).

Sure Patterson plays great defense , but so does Josh Anderson and Jordan Schafer. Not to mention the fact that they will both make the major league minimum if they make the 2008 squad.

I’ll stick with the cereal man , thank you very much. The Braves persuaded Boston to pay part of Renteria’s contract (11 million in cash). I see no reason why they can’t go the same route with Coco Crisp. I don’t see the Braves giving up anymore for Crisp than they gave up for Renteria.

Trading Gregor Blanco and or Martin Prado for Crisp while getting the Sox to eat half of the cereal man’s contract seems about right.

By rainman

January 9, 2008 6:28 PM | Link to this

I just cant see us not getting someone else for center. Everything we have done has said we are going for it. Glav and Tex are gone after this year. So what is 5 or 6 mill if it is what puts you over the top or at least keeps us from having a weak spot.

By Overlord

January 9, 2008 6:30 PM | Link to this

I agree with you Dave about Tex, it is clear some players, we all humans do, take a little less money for a better place to work. The pressure and unfairness in NY is so high sometimes no amount of money makes for the damage. If i was a baseball player (thinking as a human being) i would take 4 years 80 million in atlanta over 5 million 125 in NY. 80 million (which will become less with taxes etc) are enough to live your live, a better live and your children and grandsons can even taste some. So why go into so much trouble in NY. If not…….as Torre, Clemens, Randolph, Glavine, Jose Reyes, ARod, etc.

By GM

January 9, 2008 6:32 PM | Link to this

Please no more has been / washed up players….give youth a chance. Why waste money or young talent for a stop gap player. Unless a miracle happens and all four of the Braves old horse starters are able to finish the season without a trip to the DL the Braves want be contending for the East title. Build the team with strong pieces for the future and quit trying to fill holes is already on the roster.

By Salty

January 9, 2008 6:35 PM | Link to this

Random Isn’t it only a sac fly if a run scores, not just advance a base? If so, a triple doesn’t mean a run; a sac fly does.

By David O'Brien

January 9, 2008 6:35 PM | Link to this

Coach, no need to apologize — you didn’t blow holes in anything.

Oh, and it’s an $8 mill contract, not $7 mill.

Kotsay would be to Oakland what Hampton’s been to Atlanta if Kotsay had played zero games the past two years, as Hampton’s done. Pretty simple comparison, really.

By keylargo25

January 9, 2008 6:37 PM | Link to this

DAP & AdirondakDave

My point with the trade is that we did not get anyone who is going to contribute from opening day on. We debated ER vs. Escobar from every angle and that is not my point. (although I would like to have seen more time in the majors and proof his attitude is straightened out from Escobar).

Another point about the trade is that we shopped ER for how long - 10 minutes before trading him to Detroit and the best GM in the majors Dave Dombrowski. I’m not getting on Frank Wren but I live down in South Florida and the Marlins are STILL bringing up people Dombrowski traded for when he was here.

By D-Cider

January 9, 2008 6:37 PM | Link to this

The Neville Bros. did “down in the hole” the first season on the wire.
I thought Patterson improved a lot for the O’s last year, but he still has some serious holes in his swing. he also seemed to do better batting 2nd in the lineup than and can steal you 30-40 bases a year. Steve Earle needs to do something with that hair!

By David O'Brien

January 9, 2008 6:39 PM | Link to this

DonC, I ain’t giving you the warm-and-snuggly anything, as you can see by my response to GeorgetownKid regarding Anderson.

Not to come off wrong, but your really don’t need to explain to me anything about what he or any other current player projects to be over his career. But thank you.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves in 2008)

January 9, 2008 6:54 PM | Link to this

O’Brien , your right. The Braves have received nothing from Hampton during the 2006-2007 seasons while insurance has covered roughly half his contract.

Oakland has gotten 8 HR’s 79 RBI and a .257 BA from Kotsay the past two seasons while paying him 15 million.

The A’s are way ahead. Now ,excuse me while I die laughing.

By humbug

January 9, 2008 6:54 PM | Link to this

Just put Schafer in CF. Gives us a good glove and saves a lot of money. He is as ready as Frenchy or McCann was and they worked out pretty well. Quit spending a pile on injury plagued “names”.

By David O'Brien

January 9, 2008 6:56 PM | Link to this

Luther, now that you bring it up, I remember clearly the Nevilles’ cover of the song (very good), and when they used Waits’ original (great, obviously).

But I sure do remember them using Earle’s version for at least some episodes before this season.

By JerseyGil

January 9, 2008 6:57 PM | Link to this

DOB Great article…i agree the Braves need a Veteran in CF so those Kid can learn, until next year. DOB….Baseball is taking away real fan…my complaint, i tried to buy ticket to the opening Game in DC and all ticket are sold out, but is you go to stubhub, there are a tont of ticket for sale over $350.00 in any location, that is wrong, real fan can’t afford those pricing, i guess i have to wait until end of Aug to see my braves at DC new park.

By David O'Brien

January 9, 2008 6:58 PM | Link to this

Oh, and coach: Glad that the Sox eating half of Crisp’s contracts sounds “about right” to you.

Man, it’s a very reasonable contract. Why would they eat half of it?

By Lew

January 9, 2008 7:00 PM | Link to this

What bothers me about all these “stop gap” center fielders mentioned (that we don’t already have under contract) is that none are offensively strong players. Crisp is nothing to write home about. Patterson is the Funk and Wagnell’s definition of “disappointing player who never lives up to expectations”. Kotsay is, as Coach says, the DL waiting to happen. They are all spoken of as good defensive players.

Well, isn’t that what we have in Blanco and Anderson- great defensive players who are questionable offensively? If such is the case, then why spend the money and/or prospects for Kotsay, Cereal Dude, or Corey the Almost, but never Was? Makes no sense whatsoever.

By N8coeur

January 9, 2008 7:07 PM | Link to this

Coach

“Sure Patterson plays great defense , but so does Josh Anderson and Jordan Schafer. Not to mention the fact that they will both make the major league minimum if they make the 2008 squad.”

Well said. I’m sure Wren (and Bobby) feel the same way.

As for Patterson? I’m with you. TOTAL waste of money, unless he’s willing to sign for the league minimum and “compete” with Anderson and Schafer for the job. If that’s the case, I’d be all for it, competition is good for all players involved, if the deck isn’t stacked.

But I agree that if Patterson is around, Mr. Predictable will put him in the lead-off spot, which would be bad. If I’m wrong, and Bobby would bat him 8th……then WHY BOTHER??

Certainly Anderson and (or) Schafer play great defense while batting 8th and get on base about 30 percent of the time, right?

Kotsay is more intriguing, yet still not the right move, unless Oakland eats MOST of the contract (not just half), especially if we give anybody up for him.

That being said, the only thing holding me back from saying GO GET HIM, (and letting Anderson and Schafer get more time in the minors), is the injury history.

If Kotsay’s gonna get hurt and one of those two (if not both) are gonna be called up at some point anyhow, why bother.

Certainly, one doesn’t think that the “extra” two months of minor league seasoning that McCann had in 2005, made THAT MUCH difference in his advancement, right? Plus Anderson was already called up last September. If he’s not ready by opening day, what makes anybody think he will be MORE ready in June?

Go with the kids. To hell with a platoon. Whichever of Schafer or Anderson has the better spring (or looks like their approach is better), let that one play everyday and bat 8th. Who knows? Maybe an injury dictates who plays and who doesn’t.

By DonCoburleone

January 9, 2008 7:09 PM | Link to this

I understand you don’t need me to give you projections about players DOB, but I don’t like hearing you give me the Braves brass’ spin on Josh Anderson. (“Unless him and Schafer both look completely overmatched this spring, which seems unlikely in Anderson’s case, given how well Anderson played in his September callup with the ‘Stros.”)

Seems unlikely? I would say based on his minor league career and current major league projections it seems LIKELY that he will be overmatched. You put more stock in his 67 major league at-bats than his entire minor league career DOB? I’m not trying to be an a$$ about this, I just have a hard time believing Josh Anderson can do anything more than cost us WINS (which is what a below average major league regular does!)

By DonCoburleone

January 9, 2008 7:13 PM | Link to this

And yes DOB I saw your response to the Kelly Johnson comment, but that isn’t what I mean. Of course Anderson S U C K S compared to Kelly Johnson, that is a no-brainer. What I am saying is that Anderson S U C K S compared to the average National League center-fielder…

By Braves Fan 79

January 9, 2008 7:15 PM | Link to this

glad we got Javy back….hell be a better bat off the bench that half of our bench combined last year! As long as hes 70% of what he once was offensively…hell be a BIG addition to the bench!
Go Braves! World Series or bust!

By Robert (Chipper Is The Best)

January 9, 2008 7:18 PM | Link to this

As time goes on I really think Corey Patterson may be the best option for CF. He would perfectly fill that role of “stop gap” centerfielder. I think he can be had for cheap. He and Boras may envision a 3 year contract at $6 to $8 mil a year but it isn’t reality. If he hasn’t been signed to such a contract by now, then its never going to happen. Basically every team (except the Braves) has a suitable option in CF. I guess I should say the Orioles really don’t but if they wanted Patterson they would’ve already snatched him up. Besides, Patterson may be willing to play for the Braves in ‘08 on the cheap. He would be back home so he would likely feel comfortable and could have a breakout season. We all know one breakout season no matter how much of an anomaly it might be can bring a multitude of wealth.

Don’t believe me? Ask Aaron Rowand. Really look at Rowand’s numbers before last year and then ask yourself is he worth anywhere near the contract he was signed to.

By Jim Smoltz

January 9, 2008 7:18 PM | Link to this

Dave,

Are the Braves still trying to acquire Fuentes? My impression is that the holdup is $$$$. AM I correct?

If I am, then Kotsay makes no snese. Why spend $$$ on him when you could spend it on Fuentes. My hunch is that if the Braves don’t acquire another good arm for the bullpen, they will regret it big time.

Good news about Ohman attending Fan Fest, after all we’ve heard about attitude, etc with the Cubs. Shows that he appears to be comfortable with being a Brave.Let us know your impression of him if you talk with him at the Fest. Thanks, David.

By brian

January 9, 2008 7:20 PM | Link to this

I do not have a strong preference between Kotsay or Patterson and I think either would be a good addition to the Braves. Kotsay is the better role model for Schafer and is more reliable than Patterson WHEN healthy. Patterson probably would be more durable, possibly has a higher ceiling, and will not cost the Braves anything in a trade.

DOB - what or whom do you think Kotsay would cost the Braves if the A’s were to pick up $4 million on his contract?

By AdirondackDave

January 9, 2008 7:25 PM | Link to this

I agree with Coach, Lew, and others who can’t see the logic in going outside the organization for a good-field, not much else centerfielder. And paying millions for the privilege of doing so. Man, in my mind, I’d be making every effort to save that cash for Tex negotiations. Other than pitching, what’s more important to the team now than re-signing Tex?

By N8coeur

January 9, 2008 7:38 PM | Link to this

“Patterson probably would be more durable, possibly has a higher ceiling, and will not cost the Braves anything in a trade.”

I agree with the first point (durability), and the third point (won’t cost us players via the trade), but that second point, kinda makes me giggle (did I just type giggle?).

“Ceiling”?? As Coach stated, he was drafted in 1998. Whatever ceiling the guy had, was reached LONG ago. He was obviously drafted too high.

Kotsay is (even when not 100 percent), is better than Patterson has ever looked (and probably ever will look), in a big league uniform.

Like I said before. Maybe we catch a half of a “Willie Harris” type season out of him, maybe (more than likely), not. But if he’s willing to sign on for little to nothing (around 1 million for 1 year), I see literally NO UPSIDE to going after the guy.

He’s Raul Mondesi. He’s Brian Jordan (the second time around), he’s Craig Wilson. Essentially, he’s a warm body to keep the “spot” warm until the kids are ready.

I’d be willing to bet, that Gregor Blanco is a better option than wasting money on Patterson for a year, and what has Blanco done? Not much.

I guess that makes it clear where I stand on Patterson, huh? LOL!

How’s that Braveheart, for “negativity”?

By Coach (Lets Go Braves in 2008)

January 9, 2008 7:39 PM | Link to this

O’Brien , we fleeced the Red Sox with the Renteria trade. Two all-star caliber seasons , 11 million in cash and then traded him for two young prospects in Jurrjens and Hernandez.

Why not do it again ? I don’t know if it’s possible to persuade them to eat half of the cereal man’s contract. It certainly can’t hurt to try.

Hell , I view Crisp as nothing more than a band aid stopgap until Schafer is ready. The man can switch hit , play solid defense , has some power and like Renteria , might benefit from a change of scenery.

N8 , O’Brien was totally correct on one point. The Braves and Bobby Cox will want to go with four outfielders. That means the Braves have to find another CF , preferably a veteran. Francoeur in RF , Josh Anderson splitting time between LF and CF , a starting veteran in CF , Diaz in LF. Or Brandon Jones in LF if he proves capable , leaving Diaz out of a job and possibly trade bait because Cox will want to go with a five man bench consisting of three infielders (1B and two on the left side of the infield), one catcher and a fourth outfielder.

Mike Cameron is still on the radar. However , that 25 game suspension and his desire for a multi-year contract make him a real long shot.

By DonCoburleone

January 9, 2008 7:41 PM | Link to this

What we really need to do (and if money wasn’t an issue he’d already be on the team in my opinion) is sign Mike Cameron. He is by far the best option still available and he wants to play for the Braves; but bottom line our payroll is about at its limit and we can’t AFFORD Cameron, period.

By Yars

January 9, 2008 7:44 PM | Link to this

I kinda hope Wren lets Anderson & Schafer battle it in spring training for the CF job. If he does decide on another option, I’d take Patterson over Kotsay. I don’t want to see Yunel or KJ in the leadoff spot. now playing: This Fire by franz ferdinand

By Braveheart

January 9, 2008 7:52 PM | Link to this

I think getting Patterson or Crisp COULD make sense.

If the Braves were getting them to be the leadoff guy, then it would not make little sense. But as an 8 hitter? What’s the big deal? Patterson and Crisp were once big time prospects and have been disappointing to say the least. But they are 27 now and will be 28 next year. Sometimes, players like them have a light turn on all of a sudden at their age and they are good for 3 or 4 years before fading away again. The Braves could catch lightning in a bottle.

If not, then, oh well. At the very least, Yunel has replaced Edgar, Tex has replaced Andruw, Crisp/Patterson has replaced Thorman, Brandon Jones has replaced Willie Harris/Langerhans. It’s a better lineup overall especially since Tex is such a HUGE improvement over Andruw.

As bad as you think Crisp/Patterson are, .320 OBP/.380 SLG out of Crisp, or .310 OBP/.400 SLG out of Patterson is better than what the Braves were getting out of Thorman last year with his pitiful .258 OBP/.394 SLG.

To be honest, it’s about what Andruw did last year as well and the Braves still scored 5 runs a game with Andruw stinking it up in the cleanup spot. But neither Crisp nor Patterson would be hitting cleanup. They would be hitting 8th.

Sure, Crisp/Patterson might not be much better than Blanco/Anderson in terms of results but they are much better than Blanco/Anderson in potential. There is no potential for a lightning in a bottle upside with Blanco/Anderson like there is with Crisp/Patterson.

Playing for Bobby Cox and playing in Atlanta, which is often called Black Mecca, may be just the comfort level Crisp/Patterson need to give us some lightning in a bottle. Patterson would also be coming home to Georgia. And it could not hurt to have another black player or two on the team to help a young black rookie like Brandon Jones feel more comfortable.

I’m not counting on a lightning strike or anything and won’t be brokenhearted if it does not happen but there is nothing to lose besides $3 or $4 million and perhaps an expendable minor leaguer or two if the guy is Crisp. So what? If the Braves could waste about $3 or $4 mil combined last year on Woodward, Wilson, and Redman, they can afford to expend that on either Crisp or Patterson.

As for Kotsay, I don’t know. Last year really scares me off him. I’m not sure if there is much upside left or if he can even get back to normal.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves in 2008)

January 9, 2008 7:57 PM | Link to this

Come to think of it , Kenny Lofton might make more sense than most of the names already cussed and discussed.

Sure , he is 40 , but still highly productive. Lofton can still motor , plays defense , hit for average , steal a few bases and provide a veteran presence in the clubhouse.

We are talking a one year contract , 2or 3 million at most. The man has even more value when considering what he can do for a team in the post season. Now , if we can get Cox to sign off on it.

He hit .296 last season with an OBP of .367. Stole 23 bases , scored 86 runs and had more walks than strike outs (56 to 51).

Yep , I think he is a better stopgap option than anybody else at the moment when considering value and cost.

By N8coeur

January 9, 2008 8:02 PM | Link to this

Don & Coach

Cameron falls into the Patterson category for me (but for different reasons).

Since Cameron wants (and more than likely will receive) a longer contract, it makes ZERO sense for us to pursue him.

However, if the ownership were willing and able to approve a little more payroll, signing Cameron to a one year deal for around 8 million (more like 6 million with the suspension), he might not be a bad option.

Of course, that doesn’t solve who plays CF in April, does it?

Don

You said:

“(and if money wasn’t an issue he’d already be on the team in my opinion)….but bottom line our payroll is about at its limit and we can’t AFFORD Cameron, period.”

I disagree with the reasoning (can’t afford). I believe, since we are more in need for a guy in April, than we will be later in the year, that it is the suspension, NOT the money that has kept the Braves from already signing Cameron. If they truly thought that he was the “one year” fix, to gap between the kids AND help us win NOW, they’d make the money work. But this team needs to come out of the gate smokin’, IMO, and having your starting CF miss the first month, doesn’t help you do that.

Just my opinion.

By uga-brave

January 9, 2008 8:02 PM | Link to this

i know it is a moot point but we should of gone after josh hamilton.

By N8coeur

January 9, 2008 8:06 PM | Link to this

Coach

“Come to think of it , Kenny Lofton might make more sense than most of the names already cussed and discussed.”

I said the same thing two months ago, and I still stand by the reasoning. If and when one of the kids took over for him (if in the middle of 2008), then we’d have ourselves a KILLER 4th OF, with speed that could PH, steal a base and spell any of the other OF, if necessary.

But it was made VERY clear when I mentioned it, that it wasn’t going to happen, because he’s NOT a “Bobby Cox kind of club-house guy”.

Kinda lets you know how “serious” Bobby is about winning, huh?

By Canuckbravesfan

January 9, 2008 8:09 PM | Link to this

What is it with Gregor Blanco ??? Is this guy so weak that he won’t even get a look in Spring Training ?? I just checked his winter league stats in Venezuela (which seems to be a hitters league as opposed to the Dominican Winter League. In 62 games in CF he made one error (1)—finished 2nd in the league batting .341 (.371 vs. lefties) had an OBP of .445 and OPS of .930—if he was such a poor prospect why did he get promoted every season and perform well at each level, including Richmond in 2007. If the stats lie that much, why bother even quoting any minor league numbers ???

By Braveheart

January 9, 2008 8:10 PM | Link to this

Come to think of it , Kenny Lofton might make more sense than most of the names already cussed and discussed.

Coach, we’ve had our words but that cussed and discussed line made me LOL. Well done, my fr-enemy.

I think Lofton is the best option as well. HOWEVER, I think Wren will discuss Lofton and Cox will cuss Lofton and that will be the end of that.

By Braveheart

January 9, 2008 8:14 PM | Link to this

Signing Corey Patterson sounds a whole lot smarter than Arthur Blank signing Pete Carroll.

By Alan

January 9, 2008 8:15 PM | Link to this

I don’t see the Braves going into next season with a rookie in CF - and I absolutely don’t think either Kotsay or Patterson is the answer - short-term or otherwise. I agree with Coach and others who are promoting Crisp (Cereal Man - I like that), a switch-hitter with a bit of pop and good speed. Most importantly, he’s a very good fielder. As DOB has pointed out, Crisp’s contract is reasonable - and I’ll be the cost to get him would be reasonable, too - a mid-level prospect or two. I think he’s worth going after. My distant second choice would be Mike Cameron - distant because he’s past his prime and he has to sit out the first 25 games of the season. On the other hand, he’s a free agent, so that’s in his favor. Then, too, another trade could develop, seemingly out of the blue, maybe with a team like Kansas City for a guy like DeJesus or Gathright. Point is this: the Braves will do something - they’re not going to open the season with an unproven commodity taking Andruw Jones’s place.

By Steve McP

January 9, 2008 8:27 PM | Link to this

How can we platoon LF and Cf and then have 6 starters occasionally (as Smoltz mentioned he would like it, I imagine it could well happen) - perhaps we could have an extra roster player due to some obscure MLB rule about the average age of starters being over 37? Or maybe a new rule could be slipped in to the MLB rule book to that effect without anyone else noticing!

By Bryan

January 9, 2008 8:28 PM | Link to this

2nd funniest thing thing i have read all year:

{Vote Jimmy Carter 2008](http://www.theonion.com/content/opinion/igotwhatamericaneeds_right)

read all the way to the bottom … funny stuff! Very vulgar!

By McFann

January 9, 2008 8:50 PM | Link to this

Well, it took about as long as I had figured, but here it is: (Are you READY????)

After dissecting every game (sort of), I have the number of men left on base by Francoeur, McCann, A. Jones, and C. Jones. Let me just type that I was not too surprised by the outcome:

Andruw Jones: LOB: 322 (AVG of 2.08 per game)

Jeff Francoeur: LOB: 283 (AVG of 1.75 per game)

Brian McCann:LOB: 244 (AVG of 1.76 per game)

Chipper Jones:LOB: 232 (AVG of 1.74 per game)

So let’s see: Obviously they ALL could’ve had more RBIs, and obviously they can’t drive in everybody that gets on base in front of them, but my point still stands: Brian McCann not being able to score from second on a single is not the reason why Francoeur didn’t have more RBIs. And I know, I know! you weren’t typing that it was the “only reason”. But my point is that, the people in front of McCann could’ve had more RBIs than they did—McCann could’ve had more RBIs than he did—You can’t blame that on the players who get on base before them.

This study shows that Andruw Jones knocked in only 23% of runners that were on base when he came up to bat!! Chipper knocked in 31%, McCann knocked in 27%, and Francoeur knocked in 27%.

So naturally, Chipper was the best and AJ was the worst. But huh…”Slow Poke” and “Golden Boy” are tied……But of course, my figurings counted them driving in themselves…I’ll get back to you.

Just a little thought. Suffice to type, Francoeur had plenty of RBI opportunities. So to blame his RBI count on McCann’s slow shoes…well, that’s just crazy.

By N8coeur

January 9, 2008 8:57 PM | Link to this

“Braves will do something - they’re not going to open the season with an unproven commodity taking Andruw Jones’s place.”

You mean like they did with Furcal? Or was it when they did it last year with Johnson at 2B (of course the unknown there was his defense), or maybe it was when they were going to replace Ron Gant with Chipper Jones until he got hurt, whom they then replaced with Ryan Klesko?

It doesn’t happen very often, and when it does, it’s usually with a phenom like Chipper or Furcal.

That being said, it appears that they team is high enough on Schafer that if he has a monster spring, he very well could be the next phenom rookie to make a big jump.

Before you slam on my for saying Chipper was an unknown. Yeah, yeah, yeah….I know he was the #1 over all pick when they drafted him. But as I recall, he was very unimpressive in his September callup in 1993, and was coming off of a MAJOR surgery when they had him start in 1995. Of course his spring in 1994 was awesome, which is why he won the LF job.

So let’s wait until spring before saying there is no chance the Braves have a rookie in CF.

While it may be “likely” they go outside the organization to fill the roll, I would hardly say it’s a lock that they won’t go with a rookie, if no better option (both financially and ability wise), arises.

By bojangle

January 9, 2008 9:00 PM | Link to this

I was either asleep at the keyboard or in a daze from celebrating, somebody tell me….did the Braves get anything in return for “no value” A JONES?

By Hardcore for Francouer

January 9, 2008 9:11 PM | Link to this

This study shows that Andruw Jones knocked in only 23% of runners that were on base when he came up to bat!! Chipper knocked in 31%, McCann knocked in 27%, and Francoeur knocked in 27%.

If McCann could run, it would have been 28% for Francouer.

So there!

By bojangle

January 9, 2008 9:17 PM | Link to this

Surely someone knows if the Dodgers gave up a month’s supply of Double Bubble, the telephone number for Britney’s mother…or did they just take him off our hands?

By N8coeur

January 9, 2008 9:19 PM | Link to this

DOB

Will you humor me and tell me again, WHY IT IS that McCann will NEVER be considered by Bobby to bat in the 3rd spot in the order (even if Chipper is hurt)??

Just humor me, I wanna see if you answer it the same way you did last summer.

BTW: When you give the same answer (which I’m sure you will), it should clarify whether McFann is right or wrong in his assumption that McCann’s speed (or lack there of), cost Francoeur a few RBI.

Second question: If you were to “guess” at which player of the Braves starting 8 regulars from last year, would be MOST LIKELY to be held up at 3rd base on a single (when said runner started at 2nd base), or on a double (when they started at 1st base), who would you put money on?

I’m not saying that McCann cost Francoeur 50 RBI by batting ahead of him, and surely his being a good hitter surely created many RBI opportunities, but to say that McCann’s legs DIDN’T cost Francoeur (or whoever got hits behind him - Diaz, Wille, Julio, Thorman, Langerhans), is just silly?

Again, if DOB’s answer to my question of why he’s NOT a candidate for the 3-hole, is what it was last year (and a correct answer at that), then it certainly qualifies that he may have cost Francoeur some RBI’s.

By Steve McP

January 9, 2008 9:22 PM | Link to this

Braves got a between rounds draft pick for Andruw because (despite 9 - or was it 10 - consecutive gold gloves) he was only a B grade free agent

By jay

January 9, 2008 9:28 PM | Link to this

Whats up BRAVES fans? Just wanted to say a few things I have been thinking about in regaurds to the on comeing year. In my opinion I think we have enough players to get centerfield taken care of. My concern lie in the starting rotation. spot 1,2 are ok. But the problem just as last year is the rest of the line up. Being realistic we can’t expect that we will get anything from Hampton and even though we have Tommy back I’m not to sure if he is going to the pitcher we all hope. I see that we have some good young players to pick from and I think Bennet could still have an upside just by the way he ended last year. Looks like this year more than any recent years the braves are pulling out all stops. I think we have got a great chance this year. But if we can get one more ace type pitcher that would fit in any of the top three spots. That would put us over the hump, just in case one or more of our questionable starers doesn,t pan out. The defence will be fine. Even though I like Escobar,we are going to miss Renteria he was more than I ever thought we were going to get when I first found out we got him from Boston this guy is easly an upper level player. the only draw back was a weak arm, or I just could have been use to Furcals cannon. I said it once and I’ll say it again he will be missed. Is it me or do I get the feeling that we might lose a few veteran players after next year. And if we do won’t that free up money to sign Frenchy,Tex? My only plea is please go out and get us another top tier pitcher for this year that is all we need. GO BRAVES!!!

By McFann

January 9, 2008 9:30 PM | Link to this

Oh really, Hardhead for Francoeur? Figure that out all on your own, did ya? Good land, man! Get over it!! Just because somebody is physically challenged in some way, well, that doesn’t give you any entitlement to blame someone else’s problems on him!!

For the record, have you ever watched McCann run in comparison to, oh say…Andruw Jones? When you watch Brian run, you can see that he is giving it all he’s got!! IMO, it’s kind of sad to watch him try so hard, but not go any faster. But Andruw, well, he just sort of “trots”, if you will, around the bases. Sure, he’s a little faster than McCann. But my point is, McCann tries as hard as he cann! So QUIT PICKING ON HIM!! SHEEEEEEEEEEEESH!!!!!

Gee wiz, I’m ready for some BASEBALL!!!

By JJMB

January 9, 2008 9:32 PM | Link to this

Looks like the Johnny Cash concert got cancelled. I guess all the murderers, rapists, and drug dealers at Folsom will be disappointed. Darn shame. Cash is such a hero for everyone. And to think, if Gary Michael Hilton had chopped off Meredith Emerson’s head in California, perhaps he would have gotten to see this concert. Darn shame. I think I’ll have a cry for Johnny’s memory.

By AthensEd.

January 9, 2008 9:32 PM | Link to this

I graduated from HHS with Corey Patterson and I can say first hand that he’s a team player and a very personable and hard-working guy. I really think he’d be very comfortable playing in Atlanta and he’d succeed in front of the hometown crowd, much like Francoeur and McCann.

By Greg

January 9, 2008 9:35 PM | Link to this

FREE GREGOR BLANCO

By McFann

January 9, 2008 9:35 PM | Link to this

Look, I get it, OK? I know that if McCann was faster, Francoeur might have had some more RBIs.

But here’s my assignment for you people: You dissect a few games (as many as you like, as long as it exceeds 10) and tell me how many times you found that Francoeur singled with McCann on second and McCann did not score.

Does that make sense? Any takers?

BTW, are N8coeur and N8 the same blogger?

By Coach (Lets Go Braves in 2008)

January 9, 2008 9:47 PM | Link to this

N8 , somehow the relationship between Lofton and Cox did not go well during the one season he was a Brave. Probably because Lofton had the brakes put on his running game.

Check the numbers , his stolen bases went from 75 to 27 and back up to 54 after he left Atlanta. Hopefully , now that Kenny is no longer in his prime , this shouldn’t be an issue anymore.

Braveheart , thank you. Somehow I have the habit of being stubborn as mule and that can cut both ways , just ask Scott Thorman.

Lofton or Crisp would be fine with me. I’ll scream bloody murder if Cory Patterson ends up with anything more than than a minor league contract.

As bad as Andruw was last season , the Braves won’t be replacing his unique combination of defense and offense anytime soon. He will be missed.

Gregor Blanco is ready to contribute. It’s just that his potential is viewed by many within the organization to be a fourth outfielder at best.

By N8coeur

January 9, 2008 9:52 PM | Link to this

Hey McFann, wouldn’t it be more simple to dissect the batting average of players with RISP, to show how “clutch” they are, (while taking into consideration how many AB’s in those situations into account), rather than RBI, in those situations?

I mean, seriously? If Francoeur (or anybody for that matter), comes up to the plate, with a runner on second and gets a hit, but the guy on base isn’t fast enough to score, correct me if I’m wrong, but he gets “credit” for a RLOB, right?

For example:

In 2007 alone, Francoeur had 52 AB’s with ONLY a runner on 2B. In those 52 AB’s he had 19 hits (.365), 2 of which were HR, and ONLY 14 RBI.

Let’s break that down a little. Since 2 of those 19 hits were HR, that means to of the 14 RBI were scored by himself. That leaves 17 other hits for 12 RBI. Keep in mind that I have taken Francoeur’s 21 infield hits into consideration, so I’m sure a few of them must have occured on these 17 “other” hits.

But still. McCann, in the same situations (ONLY a runner on 2B), was 10 for 48 (.208) with 9 RBI. Of the 10 hits, 1 was HR, so that leaves 9 other hits accounting for the other 8 RBI. Now, McCann only had 8 total infield hits for the year (which alone should tell you that he’s slower than molasses), so I highly DOUBT that all of them occurred in these exact situations.

I’m not so sure why you’re so damn defensive about a FRICKIN CATCHER having “catcher’s speed”. It’s the nature of the business. He’s slow now, and only gonna get slower as he gets older, unless he has McNamee come to Atlanta for sleepovers. :-)

The bottom line is this. McCann will cost ANYBODY hitting behind him, RBI opportunities (which in turn causes the braves a few runs over the course of the year), by being slower than average. But he will CREATE many more opportunities, than he kills, because he’s a good hitter who gets on base by walking or getting hits.

Face facts dude. He’s slow. But he’s a CATCHER, and a damn fine one at that. If somebody tells you he can’t HIT, as opposed to saying he’s slow….by all means, fly off the handle.

By Matt the Brave

January 9, 2008 9:52 PM | Link to this

Oh dear Lordy no. Can you said Craig Wilson? Patterson may be a good stop-gap, but he’ll be pushed out the door by mid-season by the young guys. He’s batted .258 for his career, about to be 29, so the wheels are going to start to rust soon. However, that said, he’s been more productive in the last couple of years in Baltimore…but it’s a pretty good hitter’s park. Turner Field is definitely a pitcher’s park.

By N8coeur

January 9, 2008 10:00 PM | Link to this

McFann

“BTW, are N8coeur and N8 the same blogger?”

The answer would be yes.

When I post as N8,I’m at work. Recently, I’ve changed my moniker at home (more so to mock you) to N8coeur.

BTW, thanx for the homework assignment in your last post. But since I’ve only stated that McCann cost the Braves runs (and various hitters RBI), I’m not gonna find out specifically how many times Franceour has singled with McCann on 2nd.

Though since I just posted in my last post that Francoeur had 52 AB’s with ONLY (any) runner at 2nd, I’m gonna venture that many of those times it was McCann.

Anyhow, this topic is getting old, but I figured I needed to get my stat finding “chops” in shape for the regular season.

Camp DOB started this week (since football is essentially over for me), gotta get that last work-out in before spring training.

By N8coeur

January 9, 2008 10:09 PM | Link to this

Coach

“Check the numbers , his stolen bases went from 75 to 27 and back up to 54 after he left Atlanta.”

As much as I love to rag on Cox for his lack of letting base stealer’s, steal bases. I don’t believe that was the case with Lofton.

If you check the gamelogs for 1997, you’ll see that 10 of those 27 stolen bases were in April. Lofton got hurt, and missed 40 games that year, which obviously contributed to the lower number. Not to mention that when he WAS in the lineup, he wasn’t 100 percent, which explains the career HIGH of 20 caught stealing’s as well.

That and maybe not knowing the pitchers moves as well.

Also note, that we were 19-6 in April that year (.760) winning percentage. So while MANY have ragged on getting rid of Justice and Grissom, along with Dye, CLEARLY JS knew what he was getting (if Lofton was healthy), when making the moves to aquire Lofton and Tucker.

If I recall, it was the club-house Kenny Lofton, that Cox despised, something to do with playing loud music or something. You know….god forbid the team have some attitude or personality. LOL!

By brian

January 9, 2008 10:09 PM | Link to this

may have just seen the worst MTV unplugged show. Have no idea how old it is, but Bon Jovi just butchered too many songs. I usually love the unplugged shows but that was terrible

By N8coeur

January 9, 2008 10:14 PM | Link to this

Coach

Forgot to add this to the last post.

“Gregor Blanco is ready to contribute. It’s just that his potential is viewed by many within the organization to be a fourth outfielder at best.”

Exactly. Which makes him the PERFECT stop-gap for a month or two, until the future stars are ready. Certainly he could bat 8th and man CF until June or so, right?

I mean, after all, they let Langerhans stick around for a month or so (with no better options - other than Willie Harris - in sight), and I find it hard to belief that ANYBODY could have as bad of an April as Langerhans did last year, especially a guy with as good of OBP numbers as he’s had in the minors, not to mention he can obviously hit lefties too, which means NO PLATOON.

In fact, I’m SOLD!!! He’s the man. Bat him 8th, and we’ll see the same spark that Wille provided after his call-up, when he was still batting in the 8th hole. The RBI opportunities for KJ and Escobar will be plentiful.

Hell, maybe we should bat him ahead of Francoeur to boost his stats a bit, eh McFann? LOL!

By Bobbymahlon

January 9, 2008 10:23 PM | Link to this

I’ll say this more time I hate to see the Braves spend any money for Kotsay, Patterson or Crisp. When will we learn not to sign guys like these when we have young players who can do a better job like McCann and Franceour and Escobar have done in the past few years. We do not need guys like Woodward,Redmond,Jordan, Mondesi etc who we have to play and get nothing out of them and then have to let them go. Go with the young guys (youth must be served)it will cost us a lot less and use the money toward signing Franceour .

By N8coeur

January 9, 2008 10:24 PM | Link to this

Alright, I’ve put in my 5000 word quota for the day. I’m out for a while.

Probably be back around midnight CDT, if anybody cares.

Sorry for the long posts (not really), but since I hardly posted all winter, I’m trying to catch up in about a week’s time. :-)

By Wayne in Utah (ever lurking in the blog shadows!)

January 9, 2008 10:25 PM | Link to this

CF musings

What I can’t see is where is the big difference between Patterson and Crisp??? To say that Patterson has disappointed (yes, he has) does not answer anything. What has he done the past couple of seasons? He has improved, albeit slightly.

What has Crisp done in the past two years? About the same roughly as Patterson.

Which will cost us the least, as we hope that by the All-Star break, maybe we won’t need them anymore, anyway!

Boston will NOT take Blanco & Prado for Crisp. Boston’s organization is not stupid. Those two are career AAAA players.

So, to get Crisp, we are going to have to give up something of value. I think if Patterson could be had for the same or a bit less salary, then go for him.

As for Kotsay, isn’t he the one with the “hot” wife??? Then, what is the hold-up? Make that trade, Frank Wren! Where is your head dude? Make the call!

Seriously, I think Kotsay would only be a good add if we were going to carry 5 outfielders. I think that only happens if we make some other trade to get a single person to cover several positions (first, third, 3rd catcher, etc….. a Brayan Pena type).

Any talk recently on picking up Randy Winn, after SF signed Rowand??? I think he would be an excellent addition.

By uga-brave

January 9, 2008 10:28 PM | Link to this

lofton and bobby did not get along because lofton did not want to be here. he hated bobby’s rule of no music in the clubhouse and he hated the fact he was not the “STAR” here.

now lofton has probably grown up a lot since then, but i dont think he can play center field anymore. no arm and average range.

By Wayne in Utah (ever lurking in the blog shadows!)

January 9, 2008 10:31 PM | Link to this

BTW, I too am OK with us going with the youguns in CF. Blanco, Anderson, Schafer. Heck, lets bring back Langerhans. Could he suck that bad two years in a row???

By Wayne in Utah (ever lurking in the blog shadows!)

January 9, 2008 10:35 PM | Link to this

uga How ya been? N8 I will anxiously await your return… that is, if I stay.

:-)

By BeachGaBulldog

January 9, 2008 10:43 PM | Link to this

Since Patterson came up with the Cubs, he hasn’t done much. I definitely DO NOT want another Andruw Jones in centerfield. Patterson is supposedly a great defensive player? I just don’t think that the Braves will get much in the way of production from him.

By Romal Gal

January 9, 2008 10:48 PM | Link to this

McFann, I decided to take you up on that challenge of yours. However, I only got through April and May because I am about to go watch a movie. Anyways, from the looks of it, McCann cost Francoeur 4 rbi’s in April and May. That’s not counting any potential sac flies because that would be too hard to figure without gameday or actually seeing it. If I remember correctly, he got a little bit worse as the season wore on (mostly because he started playing more and more once Salty was traded.)

Since that was two months (in which he didn’t play as much) and the season is six months, you could argue that McCann cost Frenchy approximately 12 rbi’s over the season (give or take.) That is a lot. BUT IT’S THE NATURE OF THE BEAST that is catcher’s speed.

By brian

January 9, 2008 10:49 PM | Link to this

to answer your question Wayne:

yes

By David O'Brien

January 10, 2008 12:39 AM | Link to this

Brian, I know the writers’ strike has seriously cut into the quality-TV options and all that, but you really watched a Bon Jovi Unplugged? Oh, lawd….

By NOLIE

January 10, 2008 12:49 AM | Link to this

ncscoots, it’s only been Earle singing the theme song the past two seasons. Before that, they had another theme song (can’t recall offhand, but it was also a good one).DOB

I thought they used Tom Waits’ ‘Keep the Devil Down in the Hole’ for the first 4 seasons, just done by different singers?

By NOLIE

January 10, 2008 12:57 AM | Link to this

Most times in life you don’t get the total package. Can you fill out all 9 positions with guys who do both, hit the ball hard and far and get on base a lot?TP

prolly not, but then you should use high OBP guys with less power. If you can keep the OBP high all through the lineup you get your leadoff and #2 guys more chances for RBI too. Most stats guys think OBP is a tad more important than S%, in fact sone formulas weigh it heavier. One of Beane’s contributions was finding that high OBP guys were cheap (at that time) and helped the offense a good bit.

By uga-brave

January 10, 2008 1:09 AM | Link to this

In the latest sports weekly they have a three page pullout on the braves and their minor league system. they rank the braves third in the n.l. east and seventh in the n.l. seth livingstone is really high on jo-jo ranking him their top prospect, they rank jjj second. frank wren goes on to say that chalie morton could be a real sleeper. now of course DOB, told us this in november.

the braves had the second biggest bullpen swing improving from 4.39 in 06 to 3.54 in 07. peter moylan truly had a remarkable season 80 games 90 ip and only 65 hits. 2 to 1 k’s to walks. really just a great rookie season.

just goes to show you that all great major leaguer’s are not always great prospects. remember jose capellean, to a man he was rated our top minor league arm. i am sure js is quite relieved he has not lived up to expectations, if he did the dan kolb trade might have gone down as the worst trade in the history of the braves.

By NOLIE

January 10, 2008 1:09 AM | Link to this

Everyone wants someone who can get on base and hit the ball as hard and as far as possible. Generally, that will create runs and win lots of games. But they would also like their hitters to be good situational hitters.*Braveheart8

there are quite a few stats guys who do not believe in situational hitters. In general the larger the sample size of situational at bats the closer that they conform to overall hitting stats of the player. also situational hitting is often an up and down stat over the years for most players. Still not sure exactly how I feel about that take on the ‘situation’.

By uga-brave

January 10, 2008 1:20 AM | Link to this

one thing that is overlooked a lot when considering whether or not a TEAM is great offensively is their pitches per plate appearance.

truly great offensive teams have high pitch counts per plate appearance. in order to beat other teams 1 or 2 it is important to get their aces pitch count up early.

i think this has been one of the braves most glaring weaknesses in the past. with the departure of edgar the only real patient hitters on the team are hoss and kj.

By A-ville Ranger

January 10, 2008 1:23 AM | Link to this

DOB.. I’m going to ask a question that you probably can’t answer honestly if at all.Does it bother you that Terrence Moore writes one poorly crafted,inflammatory and unually completely off the mark article while you craft what you do to be interesting,informative without taking the low,easy road (for the most part)? Consider this rhetorical if you wish.

By uga-brave

January 10, 2008 1:41 AM | Link to this

A-ville Ranger,

i always thought terrence moore’s articles were written to cause controversy, much like the talking heads on sports radio. i think he is looking for the wow factor.

his idea of jouranalism is to tick off the majority and get people talking about his latest editorial.

right or wrong i think he achieves his objectives.

speaking of journalists i sure miss rick reily’s last page in sports illustrated. he left SI in november.

By NOLIE

January 10, 2008 1:57 AM | Link to this

Before you slam on my for saying Chipper was an unknown. Yeah, yeah, yeah….I know he was the #1 over all pick when they drafted him. But as I recall, he was very unimpressive in his September callup in 1993, and was coming off of a MAJOR surgery when they had him start in 1995. Of course his spring in 1994 was awesome, which is why he won the LF job.N8

he was also rated in the top 5 prospects in baseball every year in the minors I believe, which had to help some too I bet

By Michael Procton

January 10, 2008 2:26 AM | Link to this

Moylan did have a PHENOMENAL rookie year, but I hope you’re not banking on another 80 IP season with an ERA under 2. The guy had a strand rate of 87%! No matter how good a pitcher is, that’s just a ridiculous number that is MOST unlikely to be repeated.

By Coach(Lets Go Braves In 2008)

January 10, 2008 2:37 AM | Link to this

Wayne wrote : What I can’t see is where is the big difference between Patterson and Crisp??? To say that Patterson has disappointed (yes, he has) does not answer anything. What has he done the past couple of seasons? He has improved, albeit slightly.

Wayne , one is a switch hitter(Crisp) , the other bats left handed(Patterson).

Coco Crisp is a 7th round pick who has lived up to expectations. Cory Patterson is a 1st round bust.

The cereal man has value , an affordable multi-year contract and that World Championship ring.

Cory Patterson is viewed as an underachieving 1st round bust , no contract as of yet and considering his his enormous talent this should be a clue to the unwise.

Wayne wrote : Boston will NOT take Blanco & Prado for Crisp. Boston’s organization is not stupid. Those two are career AAAA players.

Wayne , they took Andy Marte for Edgar Renteria and gave the Braves 11 million in cash.

Your trying to tell me that Coco Crisp can’t be had for two players ? get real. The cereal man has value. However , he isn’t worth nearly as much as Renteria.

I view Gregor Blanco as a fourth outfielder , Martin Prado is a decent back up infielder. Thats probably about right when considering a trade for Crisp.

If Theo Epstein wants to try and overstate the worth of Coco Crisp , then by all means , just sign Kenny Lofton.

I would be happy with either Crisp or Lofton. They both have pro’s and con’s to consider.

Lofton is 40 , bats left handed and is a type B free agent , could be had for one season in the 2 to 3 million dollar range and can still play. His age still has to be taken into consideration whether it’s fair or not.

Coco Crisp is 28 and a switch hitter , has two years and 10.5 million left on his contract and a team option for a third year at 8 million or a 500k buyout. He will cost a player or two in trade.

The Braves are looking for a one year stopgap veteran CF who can play solid defense and hit a little bit , nothing more.

By Mike S

January 10, 2008 2:46 AM | Link to this

I’m a little worried about Moylan throwing 90 innings in 80 appearances in his first full year in the bigs too…

By Metropolitan Man

January 10, 2008 3:43 AM | Link to this

WASHINGTON - When Larry Jones noticed a foul odor coming through a vent in his apartment, he chalked it up to dead mice and spoke to his landlord.

It wasn’t until Wednesday, when U.S. Marshals delivered an eviction notice next door, that Jones learned the real source of the stench: the decomposing bodies of four young people.

And we thought David Wright did it all. Superhero “Chumper” solves another case. Now get back to hooters!!!!

By tom simmons

January 10, 2008 4:25 AM | Link to this

Devils right hand… I know this song as a Webb Wilder song. who covered who on this?

By Nolie

January 10, 2008 5:43 AM | Link to this

Tom Earle wrote it. Johnny Cash and The Highwaymen are two covers that I am aware of.Never heard the Wilder version.

By KC

January 10, 2008 7:38 AM | Link to this

Mike S: “I’m a little worried about Moylan throwing 90 innings in 80 appearances in his first full year in the bigs too…”

Valid point Mike, but keep in mind… throwing sidearm is considerably easier on the arm/shoulder than throwing over the top.

By flange1

January 10, 2008 8:01 AM | Link to this

Good Morning All,

Just reread the Mitchell report and I have a general question for he group about steroids and HGH.

I read Juiced and Game of Shadows and in those books, we saw Barry Bonds and Jose Canseco using steroids over long periods of time. They used calendars to create “cycle periods” to go on and off the juice to maximize the effects of the steroids.

In reading the Mitchell report, we have the Rocket being charged with get basically 3 injections, Andy Pettite getting HGH on one occasion, and Brian Roberts trying steroids one time.

My basic understanding on both HGH and anabolic steroids is that they assist the body in recovering from injury, either from a physical injury or surgery or from vigorous workouts.

Is there any value to the user in using either HGH or anabolic steroids in single or just a few doses?

By opieandy

January 10, 2008 8:08 AM | Link to this

Unless him and Schafer both look completely overmatched this spring,

Nice grammar, Dave. Are you really a journalist? :)

By Chuck

January 10, 2008 8:12 AM | Link to this

I removed myself from this board over a year ago b/c everyone, including DOB, is very hostile. Glad to see nothing has changed. Good lead-ins, but after that, this board goes South. And don’t worry, I won’t be reading any responses so blast away if you must. But please remember, we are all rooting for the same team.

By cardvol

January 10, 2008 8:29 AM | Link to this

Josh Anderson will be the Braves’ answer to CF. He’ll hit at least .270 and be a more than adequate defensive player. The Braves are in much shape now than they were last January. And, if Gonzo can get back by mid-June they’ll win the division.

By armesjr

January 10, 2008 8:31 AM | Link to this

Random Note regarding The Wire. The deacon in “The Wire”, used to be a major drug dealer in balitmore in the 70’s and 80’s.

By Braveheart

January 10, 2008 8:34 AM | Link to this

Flange1, that question has been on my mind for a few weeks as well. I always thought Pettitte and Clemens were roids guys. But I figured they were much more hardcore into PEDs. So, the shocker of the Mitchell report for me was that, to the best of McNamee’s knowledge, they were not using all that much.

Like you, I thought the PEDs took a bit of time, and working out to really have a benefit. Maybe I’m wrong about that. I dunno. I just didn’t think they worked instantaneously like that. HGH might be the one that has that immediate benefit since so many players like Pettitte and Vina have said they used HGH to have a fast recovery.

But if you look at the timeframes McNamee used to allege abuse by Clemens, you see Clemens had these miraculous turnarounds in his season following the alleged use. Does it really work like that? That fast? I wish I knew. Because you could say that is how damaging this stuff was to the game. OR you could say the times selected by McNamee is proof that McNamee is lying.

The times he alleges of Rocket’s use seem a little too cozy and convenient. Almost like, under pressure, he went through gamelogs and splits, and said there is the time of use. Or almost like the feds and Mitchell did that themselves and improperly suggested the answer.

With that being said, I believe Clemens is as guilty as hell. Sometimes, the truth is too cozy, convenient, and obvious.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves in 2008)

January 10, 2008 8:39 AM | Link to this

Read it and weep , or scream. I cussed.

http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/13627791.html

By Mackey Sasser

January 10, 2008 8:45 AM | Link to this

Metro Man, how did the Mets end up doing last year? I missed the last couple of weeks of the season. I know you guys were cruising to the playoffs. Hope the posteason went well.

By Random

January 10, 2008 8:50 AM | Link to this

DonCoburleone:

Point of order, sir — it ain’t “warm and snuggly”, it’s “warm and fuzzy”.

Always has been, always will be.

By TBraveFan

January 10, 2008 8:51 AM | Link to this

Wow — I not only watched Bon Jovi on CMT, MTV and VH1 but I set the ol’ DVR… gotta have something to do during the off season!

Braves and Bon Jovi - the two great loves of my life…. ok - I’m sooooo ready for ST!

By DAP

January 10, 2008 9:15 AM | Link to this

shaun and Random ok, guys, whatever. i think your wrong, but im tired of talking about it. i think weve made our points.

By DAP

January 10, 2008 9:17 AM | Link to this

McFann thanx for those stats from yesterday. they were very interesting. good work! youre learning some stuff about baseball!

By Random

January 10, 2008 9:19 AM | Link to this

McFann:

Nice work — appreciate the effort.

Your AVG LOB per game played numbers for the four players cited is not as useful for comparison purposes as would be LOB per opportunity (ie, per AB (or PA) with men on base) would be.

Maybe you’re having trouble with the gazinters.

You know, like three gazinter six twice.

Or McMann gazinter home from second on a single never.

;-)

By DAP

January 10, 2008 9:22 AM | Link to this

for CF, randy winn would be a perfect fit, but his cost i think is an issue. anyways, he would be my first choice. lofton might be good but i dont think he can do it defensively any more.

gregor blanco WILL be in the mix the anderson and shafer to make the team out of spring training, if we dont get a veteran. i really think itll be between anderson and blanco when it comes down to it.

By Efrim

January 10, 2008 9:34 AM | Link to this

Coach

It wouldn’t shock me at all to see Santana on the Mets at this point. The Twins aren’t in love with the Red Sox and Yanks offers, therefore, it seems as if the Mets could be the leader. I just hope that Bill Smith could grab Fernando Martinez in the trade.

By Bon Jovi

January 10, 2008 9:36 AM | Link to this

Anderson, Blanco, Kotsay, Crisp, Patterson? Wow. Now that’s livin’ on a prayer.

By Random

January 10, 2008 9:38 AM | Link to this

Salty—

Yes, an integral part of the definition of “sac fly” is that a man is on third base (and scores). Otherwise, a sac fly is just a fly out.

If you want to honestly or fairly compare triples with sac flies, then you must stipulete that there’s also a man on third for the triple, same as for the sac fly. That being the case, which would you say is better or more valuable, the triple or the sac fly? As I’ve stated, I consider it to be a no-brainer of a question.

Otherwise, you might as well be arguing what’s better or more valuable, a double or an RBI double?

By Rocket

January 10, 2008 9:46 AM | Link to this

Oh really, Hardhead for Francoeur? Figure that out all on your own, did ya? Good land, man!

Mac, I get home from vacation here and I found out now - I’m just hearing a ton of other things. Just the stuff that I’m reading or hearing. So much of it is untrue that it’s just tearing everybody apart. What dime store novels have you been reading? A supposed teen saying good land man?!?!?! Teens are getting cornier and cornier these days. I just want the truth out there, and if I got to go - whatever I’m doing - I just want the truth out there. And like I said, I just can’t believe what’s being said. We’re getting it from all angles. Andy’s taking it, er, I mean Debbie’s taking it real hard, man. I mean, I just can’t - like I said, you know, everybody asks me about you and I tell them I treat you like I treat anybody else in the world. I think you know that. I treated you just like anybody else. You just need to come out and tell the truth. Alright, I gotta go visit with some folks.

By Random

January 10, 2008 10:02 AM | Link to this

DAP—

Okay — truce. Okay, Shaun?

By DAP

January 10, 2008 10:05 AM | Link to this

Random If you want to honestly or fairly compare triples with sac flies, then you must stipulete that there’s also a man on third for the triple, same as for the sac fly.

that was never the argument. the argument was a guy hits a triple, and then the next guy hits a sac fly to score him. which was more important, the triple or the sac fly?

the answer: both events are meaningless(as far as winning the baseball game) without the other event happening.

By flange1

January 10, 2008 10:10 AM | Link to this

Braveheart,

You hit the nail on the head with the timing of the Rocket’s injections and his career turn arounds. It does seem a bit strange that he would have his trainer inject him 3 or 4 times and not every time or none of the time.

And Pettite took HGH after an injury and recovered and pitched well.

Hopefully someone with knowledge can help us out here!

By DAP

January 10, 2008 10:13 AM | Link to this

random sounds great. my last post was already in before i saw your truce.

By Will

January 10, 2008 10:28 AM | Link to this

Corey Patterson is crap. He swings for the fences almost every at bat. I thought the Braves were looking to get rid of their .220 hitting center fielder. At least A.Jones could play defense.

By Shaun

January 10, 2008 10:38 AM | Link to this

I found a neat little tool on baseballmusings.com:

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/RBIPCT.py?StartDate=03%2F29%2F2007&EndDate=10%2F01%2F2007&SortField=1.0*%28OnRBI.RBI-OnRBI.HRs%29%2FOnRBI.RunnersOn&SortDir=desc&MinPA=200

RBI Percentage, which basically measures the percentage of runners a hitter drove in that wasn’t himself (minus homeruns) per men on base.

Of course this is not perfect because you still need to take ballpark into account; the easier it is to hit a homerun, obviously the easier it is to drive in all the runners on base. Also, if a hitter gets pitched around or is disciplined, it’s going to affect his percentage. But it’s a nice quick and dirty tool and we can learn some things.

For example, look at Andruw: He came to bat with 501 runners on in 2007, yet had only 94 RBI. Only Aaron Rowand drove in fewer runs with at least 500 runners on.

By Random

January 10, 2008 10:39 AM | Link to this

Coach: somehow the relationship between Lofton and Cox did not go well during the one season he was a Brave.

True dat, but it wasn’t anything to do with running or not running, as well argued by N8.

And the same factor would militate against Crisp, as well.

Sad fact is both Lofton and Crisp would probably be considered too “uppity” for the Braves’ locker room and club house.

By Shaun

January 10, 2008 10:49 AM | Link to this

DAP, that’s not the way I saw it. Obviously both events—the triple and the sac fly are important to getting that run home. The question is which event should be weighted more in terms of creating that run. You say equal, I say the triple (because I think the player that hit the triple did harder work to create that run and the guy who hit the sac fly—while I would never ever say it was easy—had an easier task in creating the run).

By BabyGoatEater

January 10, 2008 11:13 AM | Link to this

Patterson is a disgusting player. Selfish, hard-headed, and power hungry.

But then again so is francoeur so…….

just kidding.

In reality though, why pay for Patterson’s services? I know everyone heer doesn’t think the Braves current roster is enough to win the division, but why would an overpriced, stopgag, average free agent pick-up be a good idea to fix it? I think FW should just roll the dice and let Blanco or Anderson play center. Give Schaffer some more time in the minors so he doesn’t become Patterson. Yeah, I wish we had Andruw or Rowand running the outfield too. Since we don’t let’s let a guy who has produced at every level get his shot (Blanco).

By David O'Brien

January 10, 2008 11:24 AM | Link to this

“Roll the dice”? You might have your future Hall of Fame manager and future Hall of Fame pitcher (Glavine) in their last seasons with Atlanta. You might have Teixeira in his only full season with the Braves. This might — repeat, might — be the team’s best chance to go deep into the postseason for some time.

And your best advice on CF is “just roll the dice and let Blanco or Anderson play center”?

Wow.

By Daybed Wagmoe

January 10, 2008 11:27 AM | Link to this

great picture of bobby and hampton on the front page!!

By McFann

January 10, 2008 11:29 AM | Link to this

Hey, Neightcoeur, now your sayin’ McCann cost the whole team runs? Well, that may very well be true, my almost-friend, but how can you be so sure? Suppose he stopped at third on one of Francoeur’s 129 singles, but then the next guy knocked him in? Seems to me we got the same amount of runs that way. Unless wait—perhaps McCann’s slow speed kept Francoeur at third so he could not score, and then the next batter made the third out! Ohmagosh!! He did prevent a run!!

And I’m not denying that he cost a few runs—how ‘bout that time Smoltz was attempting a squeeze play with McCann on third? Brian got tagged out instead of scoring. I said before Smoltz even touched the ball that it was a dumb idea—I am merely trying to tell you that if Francoeur would’ve knocked in maybe 12 (Roman Gal) of those 200 some odd players that he left stranded, he’d have had more RBIs. It’s not all McCann’s fault.

And that point about me facing the fact that he’s slow because he’s a catcher? Seems to me I tried to tell you people that a while ago.

By Lee in S. GA

January 10, 2008 11:32 AM | Link to this

I would say give the current rookie centerfielders a chance first also. Kotsay and Patterson may well equal another Craig Wilson and Chris Woodward. Money wasted for absolutely nothing. Kotsay is an injury waiting to happen and Patterson is a never was reject from the Cubs and Orioles……. enough said abut him. The Braves can always make a trade later if these younger outfielders do not satisfactory their need in CF.

By David O'Brien

January 10, 2008 11:39 AM | Link to this

Random, you must have a different evaluation of Coco Crisp than any of the scouts. Because their knock on him is just that he’s not a great player — average player, chance to be fairly good, but not a great player.

You’re saying he might be too “uppity” for the Braves? Hmm. Honestly, maybe I just missed that report, but I haven’t heard anyone say he’s got any kind of attitude problem. Just lack of production the past couple of seasons, after a solid couple of years before that.

Lofton? Yes, he rubbed a lot of teammates and coaches the wrong way during his one season here (and had five homers and a league-high 20 caught stealings in 49 attempts, though he hit .333 with a .409 OBP.)

But I just haven’t heard anything like that about Crisp in Boston.

By the way, Lofton is 41 and made $6 mill last season while playing 136 games. He can still hit plenty (.296 last season, .301 in 2005, .335 in .2204).

But I’m curious: Do you think it’s just the Braves who had a problem with his attitude, or that there might be a reason why a guy with his credentials has played for NINE — repeat, NINE — different teams in the past six years.

That’s pretty incredible, for a non-relief pitcher and a guy who still can hit. There’s a reason, folks.

Nevermind that almost any player who has ever played for the Braves will tell you that if you can’t play for Bobby Cox, you can’t play for anybody. Forget that. Just think about the fact he’s played for NINE different teams in six seasons.

The man has worn the uniform of nearly one-third of the teams in baseball since 2002. And not one of those teams has brought him back the following year.

By Lew

January 10, 2008 11:39 AM | Link to this

If the Mets do pull off a coup and pick up Santana, what exactly does his acquisition really do for them? They will have replaced Glavine’s 13 wins, plus say 7 more (if he wins 20). Maybe not TOO bad for THIS season, but…… does it answer the questions of:

1.Can Pedro be effective for an entire season ever again?

1. Will El Duque ever complete another season without missing half of it on the DL?

2. Give them the two or three more bullpen parts they radically need?

4.Make Moises Alou and his 40 something legs any more durable?

5.Make Castillo’s legs any better?

6.Bring DelGado’s performance back to where it was when he was younger?

7.Does it even give them a team next year when their ancient players must certainly retire or go to rest homes or?

8.Give them ANY talent left in the minors to replace their geriatric casualties in the future?

9.Get rid of Jorge Sosa?

This trade would appear to me to be on par with the Rangers picking up ARod and actually expecting them to make the World Series. We saw how THAT one worked out now, didn’t we?

MetroDude-You’re posts have become increasingly tasteless, but you sure hit the pinnacle of that mountain with your 3:43 post early this morning. Sounds more like something you would hear coming out of New York.

By David O'Brien

January 10, 2008 11:41 AM | Link to this

Will, I’m not a fan of Patterson, either. I think he stinks as a hitter and his has been pretty much a bust as a major leaguer who came in with so much fanfare.

But your line about Andruw at least being able to play defense … who told you Corey Patterson doesn’t play good defense? Are you sure we’re talking about the same player?

By David O'Brien

January 10, 2008 11:44 AM | Link to this

Shaun, that’s a very useful tool.

Isn’t it amazing how so many folks can’t seem to grasp that Andruw was terrible with runners on base and in scoring position, and that telling us “but he had 90-some RBI” is beside the point?

If you come to bat more than anyone else on the team with runners in scoring position (Andruw had that distinction until late in the season, when Francoeur finally passed him after Bobby finally dropped Andruw from cleanup altogether), then you’re going to drive in a lot of runs. Even if you barely hit .200 with RISP, you’re going to drive in a lot of runs if you come to bat about once in every three at-bats with RISP.

By Random

January 10, 2008 11:48 AM | Link to this

Shaun—

Now you’ve gotten me to swing all the way over to DAP’s position.

You say I think the player that hit the triple did harder work to create that run [than] the guy who hit the sac fly.

I say they did the exact same amount of “work” — the only difference between a triple and a sac fly is that one was caught and one wasn’t — in every other regard, they’re both just long fly balls except for that one difference.

That said, it’s still a no-brainer that triples are always and forever more valuable than sac flies.

By David O'Brien

January 10, 2008 11:50 AM | Link to this

opieandy, no I’m not. or rather, I am, but in this forum I’m more of a blogger, and grammar and such ain’t (using that word for emphasis) nearly as important as it is in writing for the paper. comprende?

that’s part of the beauty of blogging (at least for most of us), just being able to write blogs quickly (without reading them over a time or two and making sure every word is correctly used) and then being able to answer questions by typing quickly what we’re thinking, not having to worry about folks (well, at least not many folks) caring as much about sentence structure and grammatical issues as about the content and having some fun.

again, that’s generally the rule. with some (you) it’s obviously not the case.

notice i used no uppercase letters to begin sentences in this post? notice how it really doesn’t matter? kinda like texting someone?

thanks for reading, opieandy. and glad you found some use for the English classes you took in school — playing gotcha with the mean beat writer and pointing out my grammatical errors in a blog. whew.

By jim

January 10, 2008 11:54 AM | Link to this

N8 Only Furcal jumped from A-ball directly to the major leagues. Andrew Jones hit all the stops in between very briefly on his way to the majors in ‘96. Chipper (and Javy and Klesko) had outstanding minor league numbers in AA and AAA before making it to the major leagues. All 3 were ready to take over when they arrived. In asking Shafer to jump from A ball to the major leagues (after 1 strong minor league season) you are asking him to do something only Furcal has done previously (for the Braves) and Furcal had more than 1 good minor league season behind him when he did.

I agree with bloggers who would like to see Blanco given a chance to be the opening day CFer. He has put up good numbers in the minors and in winter ball over the last 2 years and deserves an opportunity. He is probably only a 4th outfielder type, but so are Anderson, Patterson, and Kotsay (in 2008), and he would cost less than the last two. If Shafer is that close to being ready, he could arrive after the all-star break, and what we would be needing before then would be a three month fill-in. What we would need then is a Charles Thomas, Hurricane Hazel, Willie Harris two-month-wonder to get us through the transition. If Blanco or Anderson are hot this spring, then they would fill the bill.

Please don’t spend a lot of money and talent (Chuck James) on Fuentes. He lost his closer’s job in Colorado and looked very hittable in the WS. We have enough sidearmers in the bullpen. A relief pitcher’s period of dominance can be very short-term. Chuck’s numbers before last August were pretty good — an ERA of about 3.7 and 9 wins. His minor and major league numbers before last year were outstanding. I am willing to attribute much of his difficulties last year to injury and would like to see him back to get a more definitive view of how effective a major league pitcher he may develop to be.

By SNIPER-69

January 10, 2008 11:56 AM | Link to this

Lew—It sounds like you don’t have a lot of love for the Mets. Your points are valid but I do think that Pedro will replace the 13 wins Glavine provided. He’s had plenty of time to heal. If the Mets do get Santana that should give the Mets at least 10 additional wins. They had 88 wins last year so do the math. But again I do agree with your concerns buy every team has them. Remember Glavine and Smolts are both over 40 and could break down at any time.

By doc

January 10, 2008 12:05 PM | Link to this

david, i really like the e.e. cummings style you are showing today dude. looks good on you.

By nOLIE

January 10, 2008 12:10 PM | Link to this

If you come to bat more than anyone else on the team with runners in scoring position (Andruw had that distinction until late in the season, when Francoeur finally passed him after Bobby finally dropped Andruw from cleanup altogether),DOB

thats why RBI are not considered a good way to judge hitters, too many variables. But…Golden Boy had the most chances by the end of the year and onlt drove in acouple more tha Chippy and 10 or so more that an admittedly terrible Druw. and only 13 more than McCann who had way fewer atbats and was hurt all year. Those are the kinds of things that make other stats much more reliable…oops I told myself I wasn’t gonna go there anymore … damm, absolutely no self-control at all.

By Shaun

January 10, 2008 12:10 PM | Link to this

DOB, yep. I was on the Andruw bandwagon for a long time because it looked like he would walk more and I thought surely he would turn it around to his normal levels but he had an awful season. And the folks who point to his RBI total as him “doing his job” have to be kidding themselves.

Look at the other players who came to the plate with 500 baserunner on in 2007. Four of the eight had 120 or more RBI. Only Andruw and Rowand had under 100. Hopefully that is a wake-up call that RBI is far from reliable for determining offensive value.

By David O'Brien

January 10, 2008 12:12 PM | Link to this

Jim, good points on Furcal/Schafer difference.

I think people forget just what a man-among-boys that Furcal was in his third (and final) minor league season in 1999. He hit a combined .322 with 96 stolen bases for low-A Macon and high-A Myrtle.

Ninety-six steals.

By Jeff R

January 10, 2008 12:17 PM | Link to this

Depsite concerns, I’m not convinced that the Braves need to make a move for another centerfielder. Let’s give Josh Anderson a chance to prove himself. By all reports, he plays a capable centerfield and his speed will be a welcome addition to the lineup. Getting on base is what we’re all waiting to see if he’ll do. Spring training should help settle that matter.

By DonCoburleone

January 10, 2008 12:18 PM | Link to this

DOB has their been any talk about Mike Cameron lately? Is he too expensive? Does he want a 2 year deal and the Braves don’t want to go 2 years? Are they worried about the 25 game suspension?

By David O'Brien

January 10, 2008 12:18 PM | Link to this

Sniper-69, I’m in agreement with Lew about the Mets, or at least most of his points. They’ve got serious concerns. Just ask their fans and read what’s being written about them.

They should’ve won the NL pennant last year. I can’t say the same about them this year. Right now, I really don’t think they’re as good as the Phillies or Braves. And even if they get Santana, that move alone wouldn’t vault them ahead of either Philly or Atlanta, in my opinion.

Again, I believe they had the most talent and should’ve won the pennant last year, even with Pedro out most of the year. But this year they’ve got huge holes in their pitching staff and issues at several other positions.

By The Mysterious Rhinestone Cowboy

January 10, 2008 12:19 PM | Link to this

Arkansas running back Darren McFadden was handcuffed at a club in Little Rock? That pretty much seals his fate in the NFL. He’s sure to be drafted by the Falcons, now. :-)

By GeorgiaVol

January 10, 2008 12:23 PM | Link to this

“who among you would’ve believed a few years ago that Marcus Giles would be reduced to signing a minor-league contract this winter at age 29.”

Answer: Me. That’s what happens to average players when they get off the juice. I’ve met Marcus a few times in person, and he has a much different body shape now. And we all saw Chipper get significantly smaller a few years back, too. It was obvious he got off whatever he was on and his power production went down as a result.

By Shaun

January 10, 2008 12:23 PM | Link to this

Random, actually, in most cases a triple is more like a line-drive down the rightfield line or a very deep flyball in center or right-center that bounces off the wall and around the outfield (more like a homerun that stays in the park) more than a fly ball that doesn’t get caught.

By Jeff R

January 10, 2008 12:26 PM | Link to this

Santana… he’d certainly put the Mets back in the hunt in a serious way.

By David O'Brien

January 10, 2008 12:29 PM | Link to this

nOLIE, what’s your point on Francoeur? Because statistically, I don’t see any stat you can lean on to try to make the point it seems you’re trying to make, that he wasn’t damn good with RISP. He was.

Francoeur ranked 10th in the NL with a .341 average (62-for-182) with RISP, which trailed only Mark Teixeira (.509, 27-for-53) among Braves with at least 50 such at-bats.

Next were Yunel Escbar at .333 (20-for-60) and Edgar Renteria (.331, 42-for-127).

McCann slipped quite a bit after ranking at or near the top among MLB leaders in all RISP and RISP/2 outs categories in 2006. He hit .278 (42-for-151) with RISP in ‘07.

Chipper hit .310 (45-for-145) with RISP.

Among Braves with at least 30 at-bats with RISP and two outs, Francoeur and Kelly Johnson tied for the team lead at .333, Francoeur at 29-for-87 and Kelly at 22-for-66. (Teixeira was 10-for-21, .476).

Escobar (.310) was the only other Brave at .300 or above in at least 20 at-bats with RISP/2 outs.

By Shaun

January 10, 2008 12:32 PM | Link to this

DOB and Jim, “man among boys” is a good phrase for judging talent. Even if the stats don’t look all that impressive, if a player is 17-, 18-years-old putting up decent numbers in A-Ball or 20, 21 putting up decent numbers in AA, that means there’s a good chance he’s going to be at least a halfway decent major leaguer.

By SNIPER-69

January 10, 2008 12:32 PM | Link to this

LEW, as far as questions. The braves have a few of their own. Even on a down year Andruw Jones hit 26 hr’s and drove in 94. How do you replace his power numbers and gold glove in center field. Losing Rentaria will be hard as well. He playes a good shortstop and was clutch at the plate. I’m not trying to argue with you but I’m just pointing our that all teams have questions in the off season

By Lew

January 10, 2008 12:37 PM | Link to this

GeorgiaVol-Are you serious? Chipper got smaller a few years back? Just how do you figure that? I’ve stood within two feet of the guy at Spring Training all but two years at Disney and I see no appreciable difference at all. I sincerely doubt DOB would disagree with that assessment, either and he sees him almost daily during the season.

By charlie

January 10, 2008 12:39 PM | Link to this

The starting pitching scares me. I would be shocked if Hampton contributes much this year, and Glavine just doesn’t have much anymore. He’s a better 3 than we had last year,though. I would be pretty happy if we got Blanton. That would essentially solidify our roster. Go with the pups in CF and spend the money/prospects on starting pitching.

By charlie

January 10, 2008 12:39 PM | Link to this

The starting pitching scares me. I would be shocked if Hampton contributes much this year, and Glavine just doesn’t have much anymore. He’s a better 3 than we had last year,though. I would be pretty happy if we got Blanton. That would essentially solidify our roster. Go with the pups in CF and spend the money/prospects on starting pitching.

By BabyGoatEater

January 10, 2008 12:41 PM | Link to this

DOB:

I guess “roll the dice” wasn’t the best use of the words. I believe anyone who has had the numbers Blanco has had, deserves his shot. No his numbers aren’t over-impressive, but he’s pretty consistent. Being consistent in the minors seems to equate to more success in the majors than a guy who had 1 break-out season.

Your right though, that it’s a shame the Braves can’t field an all-star team for Bobby’s likely last season. The man deserves as much. I still believe in his ability to get the most out of his players, and that he’ll somehow get this flawed but still talented team into the playoffs. After that I’ll take from a great managers own words; “The playoffs are a crapshoot”

Here’s hoping we trade for Tori Hunter; realistically, Blanco will do.

By David O'Brien

January 10, 2008 12:42 PM | Link to this

DonC, Cameron wants and will probably get a two-year deal, perhaps from the Brewers, who are reportedly quite interested in him all of a sudden.

His agent said a handful of teams have expressed recent interest, and it wouldn’t surprise me if the Braves are in that group, even if it was just a phone call to the agent to see what they’re looking for at this late date, whether his price was coming down.

I still think he might get at least $10-12 mill over two years, and don’t think the Braves would do that. Unlike Crisp, Cameron might not be so easy to trade after the season, if his production declines (he’s getting old, and he’s serving a 25-game suspension for stimulant, which means he tested positive twice for amphetamines or a similar substance, as the first positive carries no suspension and is kept private).

By Braveheart

January 10, 2008 12:47 PM | Link to this

Shouldn’t we trust the relative silence from the Braves about Blanco? The Braves were pretty excited about Betemit, Marte, Frenchy, Elvis, Chipper, Furcal, Salty, Andruw, Klesko, Schafer, McCann and so on when they were kids. I know the Braves somewhat like Blanco but the Braves are pretty good judges of their own kids. When they are not trumpeting the future arrival of a kid, you know something is wrong about the kid’s talent in their eyes and in the eyes of many other major league scouts. If the Braves thought he was any good, they would be whipping us into a frenzy about him so they can sell tickets. If the Braves thought they could fool other major league teams by shouting the kid’s name, they would do so to increase the trade value of the kid. When they don’t think they can use the kid either on the field or in a trade, they always seem quiet like they have been about Blanco. Sometimes the Braves get too excited about the Bruce Chens of the world, and sometimes they are tooting the horns of the Andy Martes and Saltys of the world so they can trade ‘em for a better player, but the Braves rarely look stupid on kids they don’t get themselves excited over.

By David O'Brien

January 10, 2008 12:48 PM | Link to this

Lew, the only time I remember Chipper looking noticeably more muscular was 1999, his MVP year, when he says he did more weighttraining and also, I recall, has said he did a lot more with protein powder or creatine shakes, all that stuff.

Since that year, he’s looked about the same every season. A big dude, about 6-3 and 220-230, but not all ripped-up looking with veins bulging atop muscles, like bodybuilders — or like some football players (and, yes, some baseball players) who resemble bodybuilders.

By Lew

January 10, 2008 12:52 PM | Link to this

Sniper-Dude, It’s certainly no secret on this blog that I am, shall we say, not a Mets’ supporter. However, I believe my assessment to be rational and reasonable. Those problems definitely exist for the Mets.

As for Pedro replacing Glavine-Really? And what is it that makes you think this will happen? Glav pitched over 200 innings for the mets last year-Pedro pitched 28. To make it worse, from the end of May in 06, Pedro only pitched 56 innings until he was closed down completely That makes all of 84 innings that Pedro has pitched since June 1,2006 by the time he pitches in April of this year-84 IP in the past 22 months with major shoulder surgery, hip problems and chronic foot difficulties. I certainly would not count on hi to go the full season, much less return to the for he exhibited almost three years ago when he had his last successful season. He is now amlmost 37 years old, in addition to all the injuries.

AS for Smoltz and Glavine breaking down. Glavine never has his ebtire career-not a single stay on the DL. Smoltz has some issues, but is a gamer of the first magnitude and we actually have a deep starting staff. The Mets do not. Their entire rotation and pen looks like swiss cheese with all the holes.

By Shaun

January 10, 2008 12:53 PM | Link to this

nOLIE, I think your point is a valid one to a degree. Although I don’t know if I’d say Francoeur had as bad a year as you may think. I also don’t think he had as good a year as some others seem to think. I think the truth is somewhere in the middle with Francoeur.

McCann did have a better RBI percentage than Francoeur, so there seems to be something to what you’re saying. McCann and Francoeur both had a better percentage than Chipper, but a lot of that probably has to do with pitchers working around Chipper and Chipper’s discipline at the plate.

By SNIPER-69

January 10, 2008 12:57 PM | Link to this

DOB, I wouldn’t say the Mets have “Huge” holes in their pitching staff. Other than losing Glavine, which is a loss of 200 innings and 12-14 wins, they have everyone else coming back. As I said before Pedro will make up for the wins (not the innings). Duaner Sanchez will be welcomed back in the bullpen. I know he’s coming back from an injury but at 28 in think he’ll recover. Maybe I’m blinded by loyalty but I don’t see the “huge” holes. I’m more concerned with the loss of Lo Duca to be honest with you. He bought passion to a team that at times seemed dispassionate.

By McFann

January 10, 2008 1:05 PM | Link to this

Good point, Nolie.

Hey, I’ve been goin’ through games in which McCann scored a run (that wasn’t by scoring on a homer hit by himself or anyone else). So far, I have two games in which he scored from second on a single (hit by Francoeur, BTW). The dates are April 17 and 22, in case you don’t believe me. Oh, and on April 5 he walked and then got all the way to third on a single (hit by Francoeur). I’m in May, BTW.

You guys don’t believe I’m really a teen? Tsk! Whatever!! That’s like, so totally weird!!

By Shaun

January 10, 2008 1:09 PM | Link to this

Braveheart, seems to me the Braves (and every team) would be positive about all their prospects or would keep quiet as to not reveal which ones they really like and which ones they don’t.

As far as Blanco, he looks like a decent on-base guy with no power and good speed although not overwhelming. Furcal had a season where he stole 60 bases followed by a season where he stole 96. Blanco’s high is 40 and he’s averaged a little over 30 a season.

Just judging by his numbers, he looks like a solid backup or 8th place hitting centerfielder on a team loaded with offense (which probably describes the ‘08 Braves).

By Shaun

January 10, 2008 1:16 PM | Link to this

I think Francoeur had a solid major league season if you are just looking at what he did; nothing more, nothing less. But you translate that to take into account he’s still very young for an everyday player on a contending team and with his tools and body type, it’s a very impressive season that is likely a sign of better things to come. That’s the way I view him, for what it’s worth.

By Cleanuphitter16

January 10, 2008 1:20 PM | Link to this

If you’re going to say that Glav and Smoltz are ticking-bombs due to their ages, don’t you have to say the same for Pedro and El’Duqe? Plus, combined, Glav and Smoltz have had fewer health issues combined over the past 2 years than Pedro and El’Duqe. I certainly appreciate Mets fans trying to stay positive on all this starting-rotation stuff, but seriously, at this stage there is no contest between the two starting staffs…from a health and depth standpoint at least.

I think the odds on Pedro having a full, productive season are about the same as Hampton’s, to be honest.

By Lew

January 10, 2008 1:25 PM | Link to this

Sniper-Moises Alou missed half the season. Carlos DelGado put up his worst season in over a decade and missed considerabe time. ElDuque spent considerable time on the DL. Castillo has chronic leg problems. Beltran misses 20-25 games a year and their catcher and right fielder are gone with questionable (at best ) subsitutes in place. They have no second line of defense should these players go down for any appreciable time (and they will, if past performances hold true-which they should). Their entire pitching staff fell apart late last year and the team had a losing record from the end of May onwards.

Their bullpen was a complete and utter disaster last year and getting Sanchez back after missing an entire year is hardly a lock to bring them back to the dominance they showed in the pen in 06. Wagner is dissatisfied at the very least and you can pretty much bet on a toxic atmosphere to continue in their clubhouse.

Yes, the Braves have some question marks. Centerfield is not certain, but they have the players, at the very least, to cover it until one of their young kids (who are well thought of) are ready. They lost an offensive force in Renteria, but replaced his mediocre (at best) range at short with a guy who covers much more territory and has a gun for an arm, who is also no offensive slouch, even if he hits a bit less than last year. KJ is a year more experienced at second. We now have Teixeira for an entire season.

We have eight starting pitchers who could go-last year we had four. We have an excellent bullpen with way more arms than we can use.

Seems to me that the Braves have many less questions than the Mets do and we certainly have a much younger team. We also have a farm system. The Mets, if they trade those several kids for Santana have damn little coming up from below in the next several years, with a team that is extremely old and injury prone. There is no comparison to the question marks as far as I can tell.

By N8

January 10, 2008 1:49 PM | Link to this

DOB

I always wondered why so many people put so much stock in Furcal’s SB’s in his last minor league season. Don’t get me wrong, it’s mighty impressive, and at the time, I was very excited about his soon to be arrival in Atlanta.

But in hindsight, knowing what we know about his “possible” age discrepancy, that season does not seem as impressive as it did at the time.

I mean seriously, Furcal was “listed” at age 21 in 1999, the final minor league season, in which he stole the 96 bases. Not sure who or what to believe about his age, but if rumors are even remotely true, he could have very well been 23 or 24 that season.

To put it in perspective, how much would Francoeur or McCann be tearing it up at “A” ball??? Hell, they’d be touted as the next Babe Ruth. How would Chuck James look in Macon for a season?

Add to that, IMO, even IF Furcal’s age was correct, he was obviously a good base-stealer. But how many great defensive catchers are at A-Ball, how many pitchers have perfected the slide step, or their moves to first base.

Were the numbers impressive? Absolutely. But almost similar to the steroids non-sense, the age crap that came out after 9/11 completely diminishes those numbers to me.

Not knockin’ him, just stating my opinion.

By SNIPER-69

January 10, 2008 1:57 PM | Link to this

LEW—I think you’re assuming that the setbacks the Mets had last year will all occur again. Keep in mind that even with all the problems the Mets had last year they won more games than the braves. I’m not saying the Mets don’t have concerns. I’m just saying they’re not going to drop down to a 70 win season in 2008. I don’t beleive the braves or phillies will run away with the division. I do believe as an optomistic fan that if the Met do get Santana that they will be in the hunt for the division. If they don’t get him they’ll have to have everything go perfect for them to win the division…

By David O'Brien

January 10, 2008 2:06 PM | Link to this

N8, 96 stolen bases is 96 stolen bases. And whether he was 21, 22 or 23, he still had only two previous minor league seasons, unless you think he got experience in some secret league we don’t know about. So why would it matter much, in terms of steals, whether he was 21 or 23? He had as little experience as the catchers he was running against. And actually, it’d probably be more impressive if he stole that many at 24 than if he did it at 21, when he had younger, fresher legs.

96 steals is 96 steals. And check his avg and OBP that year. He was a nemesis for pitchers, and he did it despite never having played a long season before then and, oh yeah, after being coverted to a new position (2B to SS).

By N8

January 10, 2008 2:09 PM | Link to this

DOB

I forgot to add that the whole point of my last post is this.

My guess, due to being an American born citizen, Jordan Schafer’s age is NEVER gonna be in question.

But when he’s 23 (like Francoeur and McCann are), and in his second season in a Braves uniform (assuming he gets called up this year sometime), fans are gonna say things like “Man. Why can’t we have any 21 year old phenoms come up, like when Andruw came up at 19 or Furcal at 21?

Not to sound like a little, whiny girl…..but it’s not fair to Schafer, Francoeur, McCann or any other legitimate 21 year old coming up through the minor leagues.

It messes with their signing bonuses, it messes with long term contracts, it messes with the “Top organizational prospects” list, which I’m assuming (along with scouting reports), are what many trades are based off of.

For instance, if Schafer was 24 in the minors doing what he’s doint, he be considered an above average “prospect” with an average ceiling. But since he’s 21, his stock is higher.

It’s essentially fraud, when it comes right down to it (lying about your age, that is).

So, IMO, if Furcal was actually 23 when the Braves called him up, isn’t what McCann, Francoer, KJ, and even Escobar last year, MORE impressive than what Furcal did as a 21 year old (wink-wink), rookie??

Again. Just my opinion.

By GeorgetownKid

January 10, 2008 2:09 PM | Link to this

Mr. O’Brien,

I probably should have clarified my above statement that Anderson could put up comparable numbers as Kelly Johnson from last year.

I do believe that it is realistic to expect Anderson to hit for a comparable average as Kelly, though he won’t have Kelly’s power. He also won’t draw Kelly’s walks.

However, he is a viable base-stealer, which Kelly is not. So he might hit a respectable number of doubles, but many of them would be singles that he leggs into doubles.

My overall point was that Anderson will put up decent, but not great offensive numbers. He won’t have much (if any power), but he’ll have an average comparable to Kelly Johnson’s, he’s faster on the basepaths than anyone else we’ve currently got, and he’ll play solid defense. This is pretty good production from a #8 hitter making the league minimum.

Given this, I don’t see the value added in spending several million on a free agent who will put up slightly better offensive numbers.

But I appreciate you responding to my question!

By nOLIE

January 10, 2008 2:21 PM | Link to this

nOLIE, what’s your point on Francoeur? Because statistically, I don’t see any stat you can lean on to try to make the point it seems you’re trying to make, that he wasn’t damn good with RISP. He wasDOB

my point was exactly what I said it was, that RBI are a very poor way to judge a hitter. There are too many variables to make any meaningful comparisons. Thats why modern saberguys have come up with stats that are as little influenced as possible like OBP and S% and variations thereof. OPS is easy and tells you the two most important things about a hitter. how well he gets on base to create runscoring opportunities and how much power he hits with which shows how likely he is to drive in runs no matter what lineup he is inserted into and at which spot. I have nothing against JF except he makes too many outs and he did improve on that to some extent. if he continues to improve it some more I will be even happier with the guy. I just can’t seem to stop stirring the pot when presented with many posters obvious man love for a guy who ranks as average to slightly above average at this point in his career by the standard most used in BB to judge hitters. Like I said i did decide to try and stay away from any responses on him for awhile, but I just couldn’t keep that devil down in the hole. I’m gonna try again. BTW. I’m crying cause Wire and The Shield are coming to an end. Do you like Rescue Me at all? or the first season of Damages?

By N8

January 10, 2008 2:28 PM | Link to this

I hear you DOB. As I stated, I was PUMPED that we had a kid with 96 SB’s in the minors, almost ready to be called up.

But WHY ON EARTH has he capped out at 46 SB’s in the big leagues, then?

Is he only half as fast as he was back then?

As for the PURE numbers of the SB’s, I agree with you. He was in a zone. He was a distraction on the base paths. I can’t and WON’T argue that. The numbers are not disputable.

But gauging how he was as a prospect, while comparing him to Jordan Schafer’s “readiness” to be called upon is silly.

You’ve stated that the Brave LOVE Schafer. You’ve stated that Bobby has said he is ready defensively. People on this blog have stated that the Braves WON’T count on him because he might not be ready, yet people (myself included last night), have stated that if the kid is ready…..he’s ready and he’ll play.

Andruw climbed quickly. Obviously he’s a great talent (and was at 19- if that’s how old he was), Furcal put up MONSTER numbers, and obviously was ready to be called up, because he came up and contributed immediately.

Can’t argue that point.

My point is what it is.

I’m MORE impressed by Francoeur and McCann getting the call from AA in mid-season and contributing immediately, at age 21, than I am with a 23 year old Furcal getting called up and being considered a phenom.

Maybe I’m just bitter because he left. :-)

By bigdaddy

January 10, 2008 2:28 PM | Link to this

GeorgetownKid has it right. Anderson will go get the ball in CF, plus be a good man to have on with the pitcher in a bunt situation. In other words, he’ll provide a great return for the money invested. You won’t be that sure if you spend millions on a middle-of-the-road short-term CF. And the rest of the line-up is loaded.All we need now is healthy, consistent pitching.

By nOLIE

January 10, 2008 2:30 PM | Link to this

GeorgiaVol-Are you serious? Chipper got smaller a few years back? Just how do you figure that? I’ve stood within two feet of the guy at Spring Training all but two years at Disney and I see no appreciable difference at all. I sincerely doubt DOB would disagree with that assessment, either and he sees him almost daily during the season.Lew

I remember him saying in an article around 2003 or so that he was 245 in ‘99. I talked to him a few times over the years from when he was in the minors(kinda skinny) to ‘05 and I gotta say that he looked a bit bigger back in the day than he does lately. I’m not saying that had anything to do with juice he mighta just cut back on pumping some. I don’t know how long Dave has covered the Braves but as you say he should be in the best position to judge.

By Josh H

January 10, 2008 2:39 PM | Link to this

Read a good bit of the blog: Just have a few comments:

1) Center Field: Am I the only one who vehemently opposes Coco Crisp? Maybe its just that insane pre-pitch ritual he does, but I can’t see myself cheering him on in a Braves uniform. He does play exceptional defense. Just don’t see him as that big of an upgrade over what we might have. I say make it a competition between the 4 guys (Shafer, Lillibridge, Blanco, Anderson). Don’t most of them still have options? 2) Saw a lot of stuff about hitting with RISP. Saw how Kelly Johnson and Francouer were tied for the lead of avg with RISP and 2 outs. Do you guys think that Kelly Johnson’s approach makes him a difficult out in that situation. Isn’t a pitcher just looking to get out of an inning, and KJ is patient enough to wait for a mistake. While Francouer, well, he showed last year that he is a much more patient hitter and willing to use the entire field now. 3) Don’t really agree with that statement that Escobar is a better base-runner than KJ. KJ had 10 triples for a reason. I’m no scout but it seems to me that Escobar is very quick (in the agility way)…but really seems to be laboring when he reaches top speed.

Just a few more weeks…

By Random

January 10, 2008 3:01 PM | Link to this

DOB: you must have a different evaluation of Coco Crisp than any of the scouts. Because their knock on him is just that he’s not a great player — average player, chance to be fairly good, but not a great player… . but I haven’t heard anyone say he’s got any kind of attitude problem. Just lack of production the past couple of seasons, after a solid couple of years before that.

I probably picked up that perspective from my uncle, a Boston native and life-long Sox fan — we watched some of the recent playoffs together.

Don’t know the basis for his opinion — could be personal bias, personal experience or maybe I simply misunderstood.

At any rate, I’ve just spent several hours combing through Sox blogs and could find not a single negative word about him aside from, as you say, his performance.

By LT-AA blogger

January 10, 2008 3:02 PM | Link to this

Off subject music fans-

Just bought Stephen Malkmus & Jicks ticks for VP on 3/26 for any ex Pavement fans out there.

Personally, I like his solo stuff almost as much as the Pavement work.

By McFann

January 10, 2008 3:05 PM | Link to this

Nolie is so correct about RBIs. Sure, it’s nice to know a guy cann be counted on to knock the runs in, but it’s also important to be able to get on base when nobody’s on. That’s how rallies get started, after all. OBP + SLG is a much better way to judge a player. (That and maybe how many times he strikes out to how many times he walks. Not taking any “cheap shots” at Francoeur, just typing…)

I, too, disagree with whoever said that Escobar was/is a better base-runner than Johnson. Escobar seemed to be a little to “greedy”—for lack of a better word—on the base path. He tried to stretch singles into doubles and doubles into triples a few times too many. Then there was that one game (July 29?) in which he tried to score on a fly ball (when we were already winning, like…12-0) and got tagged out at home. But he’s young, I know. He’ll “mature”.

Bitter that Furcal is gone? OK, whatever. I’m bitter that Renteria is gone.

By DAP

January 10, 2008 3:09 PM | Link to this

Shaun ok. like i suspected, its probably all more of a misunderstanding and us talking about two different things than anything.

SNIPER-69 LEW—I think you’re assuming that the setbacks the Mets had last year will all occur again.

no, dude, most of us assume that the problems the mets faced will be exponentially worse in ‘08. youve lost your second winningest pitcher, plugged up holes at catcher and right field with options that will likely give you LESS production, and filled any holes you had with the same problems you had last year. there is not one thing the mets have done that anyone can say makes them better than last year, and a number of things that have happend to make them worse. if you get santana, itll be a huge step in the right direction, but the mets have to many steps to take this offseason. they arent gonna be to good.

By Shaun

January 10, 2008 3:09 PM | Link to this

nOLIE, I agree with your last post on many levels. But I think with Francoeur you also have to balance that with age and tools. Yes, he made way too many outs in ‘06 and wasn’t a spectacular in ‘07 as many seem to think but his holding his own as a very young player at the major league level so you have to give him some leeway on his stats when talking about his “star power.”

By ncgary

January 10, 2008 3:18 PM | Link to this

alright heres my stupid trade proposal of the month, go ahead get your jeers and boo bird calls ready, i say get kotsay if blanton comes with him , give up boyer and dan smith relief pitchers, prado and diaz, eat kotsays salary for a year which is what beane wants, and get the rewards of blantons cheap terms the next few years,beane im sure would want at least one starter maybe boyer could be sold off as one.

oh well unleash away but remember sticks and stones can break bones.

i realize reyes would be a target of beanes if talks became serious for blanton though,i dont think i would go quite that far, who else we got at richmond starting?

By McFann

January 10, 2008 3:18 PM | Link to this

Q: **How do you find somebody’s RBI %? (Ya know, that little thing that Shaun typed McCann had the better of, and Francoeur and McCann were better than Chipper?)

By Shaun

January 10, 2008 3:27 PM | Link to this

McFann,

http://www.baseballmusings.com/cgi-bin/RBIPCT.py?StartDate=03%2F29%2F2007&EndDate=10%2F01%2F2007&SortField=1.0*%28OnRBI.RBI-OnRBI.HRs%29%2FOnRBI.RunnersOn&SortDir=desc&MinPA=200

By OrlandoFan

January 10, 2008 3:32 PM | Link to this

All this talk about RBI percentage is interesting, but it’s also more a product of when and where a player hits than how well. If he plays a full season and has runners in scoring postion a third of his at bats — say an average of 1.5 RISP per at bat — a player would only have to hit .250 to drive in 75 runs. That’s pretty conservative estimates too. You could have a guy hitting lower pct. and driving in 90 runs very easily on a high powered offensive team — such as the Braves.

By Shaun

January 10, 2008 3:42 PM | Link to this

McFann, yes, I agree. RBI tell us more about situations than ability. You want to avoid stats like that as much as possible.

RBI tell us how often a player was in the lineup, where he was in the lineup, if he was in a good lineup, etc. more than if he was a productive hitter. Sure it tells us a little about production, as it’s hard to drive in 100 runs if you’re not at least a decent hitter. But it’s not impossible (see Andruw last season, Francoeur in ‘06 or Sierra in ‘93).

It’s true that OBP and SLG are not perfect but they tell us more about ability than situations.

By Lew

January 10, 2008 3:51 PM | Link to this

Sniper-Just stating my point of view and you are welcome to yours. I will say this, though. I would rather go into the season with the team the Braves have than I would the team the Mets have. Add Santana to that mix if you want and my preference would be the same-I’d still rather have the Braves.

You may be right-40 something old Alou may not miss half the season again with his chronic leg problems. DelGado may be comeback player of the year after feeling the effects of getting older-missing time and having his worst season in years. El Duque may prove to be only 39 instead of 44 and not miss a goodly portion of yet another season. Whoever you got to replace LoDuca may be the second coming of Carlton Fisk. Pedro may become a CY Young caliber pitcher again like he was six or so years ago and after barely pitching for almost two full years. Duaner Sanchez may come back from surgery to be better than he ever was. Billy Wagner may pitch like he’s 26 again and not need to be sat for the last month of the season-and he might not be p!$$ed off, either.

However, I’m betting none of that happens and they all perform like what they are-aging players with histories of injury problems and with nobody coming up from the minors to provide help.

By Salty

January 10, 2008 3:51 PM | Link to this

Shaun: RBI percentage…now that’s a stat with some merit. Presumably that’s simply men on base, not scoring position?

By Lew

January 10, 2008 3:56 PM | Link to this

Shaun-No, they don’t tell us about ability. They tell us about past performance in specific or more generalized situations. Ability is one of those pesky little intangibles we keep talking about.

By ncgary

January 10, 2008 4:03 PM | Link to this

neat site was looking to see where andruw and bonds were , they were right together.

Player Runners On Runs Batted In Home Runs RBI Pct. Ruben Sierra 1409 275 67 14.76 Barry Bonds 2575 697 317 14.76 Sandy Alomar Jr. 983 171 26 14.75 Joshua Barfield 624 108 16 14.74 Dave Hansen 563 101 18 14.74 Andruw Jones 3880 860 288 14.74 Curtis Granderson 760 162 50 14.74 Jorge Fabregas 319 55 8 14.73 Troy Glaus 2912 676 247 14.73 Melvin Mora 2763 540 133 14.73 Kevin Millar 2698 531 134 14.71 Mark Reynolds 306 62 17 14.71

thats as far back as their records go albert belle was there so probably 8 years or so worth of stats logged in i was looking for the 50’s stats to see where aaron would have been all time , he and niekro played on some pretty lean teams, niekro might could have legitimately won 500 if braves ever could have scored any runs in the 60’ and 70’s

anyone else see smoltz competing til he gets 300? i dont think he learned that knuckleball just for the fun of it, id like to see him pitch til he gets it.

By Shaun

January 10, 2008 4:03 PM | Link to this

Salty, yes, baserunners. It can tell us some things. But the results could be skewed because of guys being pitched around. And of course guys in a great homerun environments, even though homers are subtracted, are still more likely to drive in all runners on base with homers.

By Shaun

January 10, 2008 4:06 PM | Link to this

Okay, past performance in specific or more generalized situations tells us about ability.

By Random

January 10, 2008 4:17 PM | Link to this

Somebody straighten out OrlandoFan — I’m gone for the day.

By Shaun

January 10, 2008 4:20 PM | Link to this

Lew, oh that’s right. Because past performance (along with age and things like body type and skill set) only tell us a lot about ability and does not give us a perfect picture of ability, we must ignore them.

By Lew

January 10, 2008 4:24 PM | Link to this

Shaun-No, past performance tells us nothing of ability. Take, for example Brad Komminsk or more recently, Corey Patterson. Boiothplayers had tons of that intangible ABILITY, however viewing their statistics in those generalized or specific situations only tell us they never reached that ability.

There is no statistic for ability. It is an intangible like potential and cannot be measured. Semantics, Dude, semantics.

By Lew

January 10, 2008 4:27 PM | Link to this

Let me amend that somewhat. There may be no stat to tell us a player’s ability unless you wanted to count using radar gun readings for pitch speed or a stop watch to time how fast they run.

By Lew

January 10, 2008 4:34 PM | Link to this

Shaun-Look at the meaning of ability-being ABLE to do something. A statistic such as OBP or OPS will only tell you if the person lived up to the ability, not just that he has it. One automatically assumes that if a person achieves something then they did, indeed, have the ability to do it.

By Shaun

January 10, 2008 4:40 PM | Link to this

Lew, you are right. Two players is a large enough sample to tell us past performance tells us nothing about ability. Again, because past performance doesn’t tell us perfectly about ability, that means it tells us nothing, right?

I guess we should just ignore Chipper’s .425 OBP and .604 SLG in 2007 and his career .307/.403/.546 line. They tell us nothing about what he’s likely to do if he’s healthy in ‘08.

By ncscoots

January 10, 2008 4:40 PM | Link to this

Actually, you guys are mixing your stats a little. OBI (Others Batted In) is RBI minus HR. OBI% is a different stat: the fraction driven in of all baserunners on.

The usual disclaimer: my opinions are park-adjusted.

By Jas

January 10, 2008 4:48 PM | Link to this

SHOW ME THE MONEY! WHERES IT AT TERRY? YOU CLAIMED YOU HAD A GOOD AMOUNT, HOPE YOU WERNT THINKING 8MIL WAS A GOOD AMOUNT. CHEEPSKATE

By Shaun

January 10, 2008 4:48 PM | Link to this

Lew, and if a person lived up to that ability consistently in the past, that tells us something about his ability to do it in the future. Sorry it doesn’t tell us with pinpoint accuracy to stand up to your scrutiny, but past performance does tell us about ability; just not as perfectly as you seem to require.

How is a radar gun reading or a running time much different from a players OBP in his last 500 plate appearances? Both are measurements and both measure ability…again unless your standard is perfection.

Okay. I’m done. I think this is a ridiculous argument. There is no way you can actually believe that past performance tells us nothing about ability, as you said. If you do, it’s not worth the time because you’re hopeless. I’m out for the day.

By McFann

January 10, 2008 4:49 PM | Link to this

Hey, Shaun, great link!! (The first link I ever clicked on, congrats. : ) ) Get this, people, (Shaun, you might regret having given me this link, but…)

MCCANN HAD A BETTER RBI PERCENTAGE THAN DAVID WRIGHT, HA HA HA HA HA!!!! (And Francoeur, too, but we knew that already.) ; )

By Lew

January 10, 2008 4:56 PM | Link to this

Shaun-Where did I say that there was anything wrong or flawed about using OBP, OPS or any formula you want to use for figuring run production? My problem was strictly with your terminology.

I was being Pavlovian again. I give you grief because I know that it will provoke a reaction. BTW, Dude, break out the towel. You’re foaming at the mouth again-Just like I knew you would.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves in 2008)

January 10, 2008 4:56 PM | Link to this

O’Brien , good point about Lofton’s team history , the dude has been passed around like a bottle of bad whiskey.

By Lew

January 10, 2008 5:03 PM | Link to this

Shaun-Pavlovian efforts aside-those stats tell us about performance and not ability. I couldn’t care less what a player’s ability is (after a point), but I very much care how they performed when given the opportunity to utilize their ability. Performance is utilization of ability, NOT ability itself. They are completely different, though somewhat related.

By BosnianBaller

January 10, 2008 5:16 PM | Link to this

Other than the wire there isn’t a good show around.Scrubs comes to mind as second

By McFann

January 10, 2008 5:18 PM | Link to this

Actually, if you discount Tex, McCann has the best RBI percentage of the WHOLE TEAM!!

But of course, RBI count is no way to judge a player’s abilities.

: )

By DAP

January 10, 2008 5:35 PM | Link to this

i think stats do show ability. if someone is able to perform, they will, right? why would someone not perform well if they are able to?

By McFann

January 10, 2008 5:44 PM | Link to this

One last Q: Does the number of runner shown on the chart thingy include the men that were on when the player bunted, grounded into a force out (fielder’s choice), GDP, and anybody else that was on base for a player, but that didn’t score (like, if the batter came up with a runner on second, but the runner didn’t score when the batter singled)?

By Shaun

January 10, 2008 5:44 PM | Link to this

Lew, if performance is utilization of ability and certain stats tell us about performance, then it follows certan stats tell us something about ability, that a player utilized certain abilities.

Your problem is you think I’m saying certain stats measure ability and I’m actually saying certain stats tell us a great deal about ability. For example Chipper’s career AVG/OBP/SLG tell us a great deal about Chipper’s ability as a hitter.

By Lew

January 10, 2008 6:19 PM | Link to this

Shaun-No after a player is established as a productive ML ballplayer, ability ceases to have any meaning and only performance matters. Never said the stats were flawed or anything. It’s all about terminology and syntax, Dude, Has nothing whatsoever to do with the stats.

By N8

January 10, 2008 6:29 PM | Link to this

Lew

I’m afraid I have to side with Shaun on this one.

You stated:

“Look at the meaning of ability-being ABLE to do something. A statistic such as OBP or OPS will only tell you if the person lived up to the ability, not just that he has it. One automatically assumes that if a person achieves something then they did, indeed, have the ability to do it.”

OK. Really, how do you judge somebody’s ability?

Stats are a TRACK RECORD that tell us HOW OFTEN we can assume that player will be ABLE to live up to his ability.

I have the ABILITY to bench press 300 pounds….with years of working out, practicing, and the right diet. (along with the occasional B-12 shot)….but there is NO TRACK RECORD of me doing so. So the odds of the US Olympic team putting me on the weight lifting squad are pretty minimal. No matter how many times, my agent would tell them about my “ability”.

I see what you’re saying about the ability. We all know that Andruw has enough power, and the ability to drive the ball out of the ballpark to RF, right?

But here’s the thing. The STATS say that he has VERY limited ability in doing so…..because he hasn’t done it.

So, like I said. What you said can be considered fair and correct, it’s merely hypothetical, IMO. Where Shaun’s stats, actually tell me more about one’s ability as well.

I have the ability to play guitar left-handed and blindfolded. Have I done it before? Nope. But if I dig down deep enough, the ability is there, right?

Who’s right? I dunno. But in all fairness, Shaun seems to be being more reasonable at this point, in listening to the other’s argument.

Sorry. Maybe I’m just mad at DOB for ripping me because I questioned Rafael Furcal. LOL! (just kidding)

By N8

January 10, 2008 6:39 PM | Link to this

Lew and Shaun

I think what the two of you (and me - since I’ve jumped into your battle), are leaving out of all of this….

Is a players “ability” to change their ability, as their career moves along. Whether it be for better or for worse.

Let’s look at Barry Bonds (forget that the juice was involved for one second).

His “stats” from 1990 until 2001 “suggest” a certain ability of what he was CAPABLE of regularily producing with the bat.

But from 2002 until 2005 (I won’t count the last two year - because it CHANGED AGAIN), the stats tell us a completely different story, don’t they?

Lew, you said:

“…after a player is established as a productive ML ballplayer, ability ceases to have any meaning and only performance matters.”

I don’t buy that at all. From year to year, a player’s ability may vary. Smoltz does not have the ability to pitch 8 innings a night, for 35 starts, at full throttle….anymore. He ONCE DID, but you can’t blanket his ability he had at age 25 for his whole career, can you? His stats the last 2 years, give us a pretty good indicator of what his “ability” might be at age 40 or 41 or whatever he is for THIS UPCOMING SEASON, right?

Wren can’t trade for Randy Johnson, and then tell us at the press conference, that “we traded for him, because his past shows us that he has the ability to have 300 K’s by the end of the year”. That would be silly.

Just like me (in my last post), referencing Andruw NOT having the ability to take the ball out to RF. Surely he has that “ability” to do so, but until he DOES IT ON A REGULAR BASIS, I’ll go with the theory that he doesn’t have that ability. He may find the right hitting coach in LA that finally gets that information to sink in, and then we’ll all say “I always KNEW he had the ability to do that”.

Wow. I’m making myself dizzy. LOL!

By McFann

January 10, 2008 7:03 PM | Link to this

Neight

Do you really play the guitar?

By Bryan

January 10, 2008 7:24 PM | Link to this

New Music Alert!

Black Mountain - In The Future

This album wont come out for another week or so … but folks lets not forget this one when we are doing our 2008 best of list … this is a DAMN good album.

Best so far of this young year… i have heard these guys referred as a mix of black sabbath and the flaming lips … i think they have some good folk mix in their too … maybe neil young.

also, if you like female vocals … check this out “Sia” - Some People Have Real Problems. Little Fiona, little Nico, a little Beck (beck is actually on the album) … get the picture?

By David O'Brien

January 10, 2008 7:32 PM | Link to this

Hey, for those interested, Boog’s calling this high school hoops game on ESPN2. It’s a team from Louisiana against Norcross, a suburban Atlanta school that’s nationally ranked. Already been a few dunks.

By David O'Brien

January 10, 2008 7:41 PM | Link to this

BosnianBaller, Friday Night Lights, House and the revamped Law & Order range from excellent (FNL) to very good, among dramas. And the return of Law & Order Criminal Intent makes me happy (actually it’s just the season they showed last year on another network, now they’re bringing it back to NBC since the writers’ strike is killing everthing.

There’s a few hilarious shows other than Scrubs, including two that are better in my opinion: 30 Rock and The Office. But I do love Scrubs.

By DonCoburleone

January 10, 2008 7:43 PM | Link to this

Wow, High School Basketball… No offense DOB, but I hardly even care about the NBA Finals or March Madness let alone a high school basketball game.

My God baseball can’t get here soon enough…

By David O'Brien

January 10, 2008 7:49 PM | Link to this

N8, he probably “capped out” at 46 in the majors primarily because it’s far more difficult to steal against pitchers who can slide-step and catchers who have great catch-and-release ability. In the minors, especially a-ball, you’re not facing that kind of opposition.

Also, Furcal had nagging injuries during the majority of his major league seasons, at least in the past five years….

nOLIE, I’ve covered Braves since 2002, but covered Marlins beginning in 1995, so I’ve seen Chipper plenty his entire career. And the only time I saw him appreciably bigger was 1999. And no, I’ve not noticed him being any smaller in recent years than he was in years past, other than 1999.

By David O'Brien

January 10, 2008 7:59 PM | Link to this

BosnianBaller, there’s also a few great ones that are out of season right now, Rescue Me and The Shield, which is almost — not quite, but almost — as good as The Wire, to me. And one other comedy (I hate calling them sitcoms because they don’t have the canned laughter associated with sitcoms), It’s Always Sunny In Philadelphia. It’s hilarious.

By Nelson

January 10, 2008 8:00 PM | Link to this

Look: To me who finally plays center-field is irrelevant (nobody ccould do it offensivelly worst than Andrew Jones!). But I still insist this Team NEEDS A 3rd STARTER!, Glavine will be a good 4th or 5th but not the good and solid 3rd starter a championable team needs, tha’s for sure!. I think they made a huge mistake not resigning Dotel, if they free some cash from Andrew and Renteria, they should use it in pitching, GOOD PITCHING WIN CHAMPIONSHIPS, it is not a DISCOVERY, everybody knows that!

By David O'Brien

January 10, 2008 8:01 PM | Link to this

DonC, I’m not watching either, to be honest. Just flipping through, heard Boog calling the game, and left it on that channel while I started doing some other crap. And I looked each time I heard Boog’s partner hyperventilating over a dunk.

By Efrim

January 10, 2008 8:19 PM | Link to this

Here is a story:

FOXSports.com’s Ken Rosenthal believes Mike Cameron could soon sign with the Yankees or Brewers.

The Yankees were saying they wouldn’t bring in a starting center fielder even if they dealt Melky Cabrera, but that was just more deception. It is a surprise that they’d perhaps put in a bid for Cameron before trading Cabrera. Rosenthal seems to believe that Cabrera could go to Cubs, Reds, Braves, Royals or Pirates in return for prospects. The Cubs also have some level of interest in Cameron, but he’s more likely to get multiple years elsewhere.

DOB

I understand that Cabrera is more than just a short term solution, but what do you think? He is someone that the Braves could probably deal once Schafer is ready. What do you think? Not sure how much it would cost to get the kid. I watch him quite a bit up here in New York, the kid can play a good CF, and work counts deep. Not sure if it is worth giving up a good prospect, but who knows.

By Braveheart

January 10, 2008 8:21 PM | Link to this

Nelson Dotel has pitched 56 innings combined in the last 3 years. He spent more time in 2 months on the Braves on the DL than he did actually pitching. He wanted money and years on his contract. It rarely makes much sense to give relievers the $5 mil he wants, rarely makes sense to give them a long term contract, and never makes sense to give a long term expensive contract to an injury prone reliever who, frankly, even when he was good, was known for blowing saves. Even a two year contract for an injury prone reliever like Dotel is too long term.

Don’t know if this means anything but: In 1999, he was a major piece of a trade that got the Mets Mike Hampton and Derek Bell. In 2004, he was a major piece of a trade that got the Astros Carlos Beltran. In 2007, he could only get the Royals Kyle Davies in return. The dramatic decine in trade value might tell you he was not worth paying too much money or years for.

By Bama

January 10, 2008 8:23 PM | Link to this

Happy Birthday Willie McCovey..

By Bo

January 10, 2008 8:34 PM | Link to this

Would love to see Milky in Braves CF, or LF. The kids good and fits the Braves mold are model.

By Obi- Wan Kenobi

January 10, 2008 8:49 PM | Link to this

Omar Minaya : Santana you do not need , good for the Mets is not. Trade you must forego , give to the Yankees you will.

By brian

January 10, 2008 8:50 PM | Link to this

in reply to the TV selection last night: painful channel surfing.

By N8coeur

January 10, 2008 8:53 PM | Link to this

DOB

Believe me, I’m not starting a war with you, and I understand that you might occasionally skim through posts (hell, I don’t read them all, and I usually don’t read every word of the ones I do read - if the topic isn’t to my liking.

But in response to my question of why Furcal “capped out” at 46 SB’s, you responded:

“N8, he probably “capped out” at 46 in the majors primarily because it’s far more difficult to steal against pitchers who can slide-step and catchers who have great catch-and-release ability. In the minors, especially a-ball, you’re not facing that kind of opposition.”

I just wanna point out that in my initial post on the subject (near the end of it), I stated the following:

“Add to that, IMO, even IF Furcal’s age was correct, he was obviously a good base-stealer. But how many great defensive catchers are at A-Ball, how many pitchers have perfected the slide step, or their moves to first base.”

So I’m not sure if you didn’t read that far into my post (I get it that they are too long and very well might skim over my crap to, if I wasn’t me), or if you are mocking me, by replying to my question with a sarcastic tone as to tell me my “theory” is stupid.

Either way….thanks for the response. :-)

By brian

January 10, 2008 8:53 PM | Link to this

in reply to the TV selection last night: painful channel surfing.

I have always enjoyed unplugged - McCartney, Clapton, Henley, Sting, Mellencamp, Nirvana, etc. Their classic songs rocked and some of their lesser known ones sounded great as well. As I mentioned, while channel surfing saw Bon Jovi unplugged so I tuned in a bit. I have never seen a more painful unplugged - they butchered, absolutely butchered their “hits”. Should have known better I know. Live and learn

By Hotspur

January 10, 2008 9:39 PM | Link to this

DOB -

Sorry, you’re still wrong about the first “Wire” season version of Tom Waits’ “Way Down in the Hole.” It wasn’t the Neville Brothers, it was the Blind Boys of Alabama. (I have their album it’s from.)

By David O'Brien

January 10, 2008 9:54 PM | Link to this

Hotspur, I’m not “wrong” about anything. Nevilles sang it the third season. I never said they did it the first season. But if it’ll make happy the handful of folks still debating this issue, say I said whatever. My God. I merely said Earle did it this season and last and that I couldn’t recall the theme song from previoius season (I thought Early sang it last season, but some have found it reported elsewhere that he didn’t. Whatever. I don’t care that much).

When someone mentioned it’s been that song every year, just different versions, I then recalled the Neville Brothers’ excellent version and also the year they used the original Waits version.

End of story. Peace unto you.

By David O'Brien

January 10, 2008 10:01 PM | Link to this

N8, i wasn’t mocking or being sarcastic at all, and yes I read your full post. Don’t you understand the different in what you said,your assertion about Furcal being 23 or 24 or whatever and facing inexperienced pitchers/catchers in the low minors, and what I said?

I said whether he was 21 or 23, he still was in only his third season in the minors when he stole 96, and only his first full, long season to boot. In other words, he had the same level of pro experience as the 19-year-olds he was running against.

Then I said he probably topped out at 46 steals in the majors because a., most pitchers in the majors can slide-step and have far better pickoff moves overall than in low minors, and most catchers have far better technique, and b., he had lingering injuries most seasons as he got older.

That’s not at all what you were asserting, which was that Furcal had some sort of advantage over guys he faced in A-ball simply because he may or may not have been a few years older. Merely being older doesn’t much help you if you have the same years of pro experience as the younger players you’re facing.

So please, stop the debate. I completely disagree with your point, and you’re not going to convince me that his 96 steals were any less impressive because he might have been older than his listed age in A-ball. Sorry, but you’re not. And I’m obviously not going to change your mind. Fair enough. Who cares? Moving on.

By David O'Brien

January 10, 2008 10:15 PM | Link to this

Efrim, Bo: I’m pretty sure Cabrera would be in any package the Yankees send to Minnesota for Santana. Now, if they don’t get Santana, I’m sure the Braves would have interest. However, I have doubts as to whether the Braves would be willing to give up multiple prospects to get Cabrera, but frankly I’m not sure. I don’t know their level of interest, haven’t spoken to anyone about him yet.

As I’ve said, one way or another I believe the Braves will get another CF before opening day. Just have that feeling, and have all along. Never though they believed Anderson was anything more than a last-ditch insurance policy, but I haven’t been told that directly.

By rich brave

January 10, 2008 10:17 PM | Link to this

Dave:

ThanX for the tip on “JUNO”. So good I had to see it twice. Cool-way cool on a potential deadly subject - no pun intended.

By David O'Brien

January 10, 2008 10:18 PM | Link to this

Oh, and someone asked earlier about Devil’s Right Hand and whether Webb Wilder wrote it. No, Wilder covered it. Earle wrote it. Damn straight.

By mighty mike

January 10, 2008 10:24 PM | Link to this

DOB, it just goes to prove that Henry Miller was right when he said: We don’t talk anymore, we bludgeon each other with facts.

By CharlieAlphaBravo

January 10, 2008 10:26 PM | Link to this

Okay, just so everyone’s clear and we can stop writing about it all together…

The theme to The Wire is a Tom Waits original called “Way Down in the Hole.” Each season it is performed by a different artist.

Season 1: The Blind Boys Of Alabama

Season 2: Tom Waits

Season 3: The Neville Brothers

Season 4: DoMaJe (five Baltimore teenagers: Ivan Ashford, Markel Steele, Cameron Brown, Tariq Al-Sabir, and Avery Bargasse) recorded specifically for the show

Season 5: Steve Earle

I am absolutely positive that these artists are correct, so no need to post any more about this particular TV theme song. If you would like to open debate about the alteration of the “Gilligan’s Island” theme song to include the names of the Professor and Mary Ann, please, be my guest. And I agree, The Wire is probably the best drama on television right now, but Dexter on Showtime is just as good. It’s more of a dramedy though, so it’s difficult to compare.

By rich brave

January 10, 2008 10:34 PM | Link to this

Dave:

After all the posts I made on acquiring Santana in October and November, I’ve changed my mine on his becoming a Brave. Call it instinct if you will - or worse, but I think his injury is going to affect his future value to any team. Somehow I get the feeling the Yankees think so also.

By David O'Brien

January 10, 2008 10:36 PM | Link to this

mighty mike, that was outstanding: A Henry Miller reference. The ol’ blog has been lifted, if only for a fleeting moment….

By N8coeur

January 10, 2008 10:37 PM | Link to this

After this response, I will move on, and accept you doing the same.

I was NOT trying to convince you or anybody that Furcals “stats” were unimpressive.

Nor was I specifically stating that his age was the SOLE reason for him putting up monster numbers in A-Ball.

I concede, the numbers are VERY impressive.

The reasoning for me bringing the age into the discussion, was initially due to bloggers saying the Braves won’t start the season with Schafer in CF, because he’s too young, and inexperience.

I was the one last night, who sarcastically mentioned Furcal and Andruw as proof that the Braves indeed WILL call up a kid if they think he’s ready.

So the question should be IF the Braves think Schafer is ready or not. Because they have proved to me, that if he is ready, Bobby would have NO PROBLEM inserting him into the lineup from day one.

I “get” the years of experience thing. But have you ever watched HS football, or community college sports?

It is ALWAYS very evident of who are the truly talented players. In a HS football game, or even baseball, since that’s the sport of choice on the MIB Blog, the superstars STAND OUT like a sore thumb. I live in a state where you need only one hand to count the guys who have have extended ML careers, and BELIEVE ME, when Darin Erstad was playing HS baseball, it VERY, VERY evident that he was head and shoulders above the rest.

So while, I agree and accept your comments that Furcal had the same (minimal) amount of experience as his counterparts, that doesn’t mean that he still wasn’t head and shoulders above his competition.

That is why I bring up the HS sports comparison. They’re HS kids (very similar in age and experience to 17, 18 and 19 year old rookie ballers), they have ALL been playing since little league and through HS. So essentially they have the “same amount” of experience as each other.

But there it is, in your local HS region. The kid who hits .750 with 2 or 3 HR in EVERY OTHER GAME, the pitcher who throws a one-hitter every other night. It happens.

All I was getting at, is that Furcal was older. Maybe he didn’t have as much “pro” experience as his opponents, maybe he more? I don’t know.

But it is quite evident that his talent (whatever his age was), was at a considerable level FAR ABOVE the guys he was competing against that year. Thus the quick call-up, I’m guessing.

So was he an amazing talent? Absolutely. Wish he was more consistent, and we had more money (though I’m excited about a full season of Escobar).

But I’ll repeat it. Had Francoeur lied about his age, signed two years later, and had a season of A-Ball at age 21, he would’ve put up MONSTER numbers.

Only so many guys can be “immediate super-stars” and continue that success towards a HOF career. Albert Pujols comes to mind in recent years.

Andruw came out the gates strong at a young age, and has put together a HOF career. Chipper probably would’ve done the same, but by the time he recovered from injury and switched from SS to 3B (where in 1991 there still wasn’t many outside of Ripken and Larkin as “power hitting” SS), he might have been “bigger” than he was, and he’s still VERY big superstar.

I guess some of this argument is directed at some of the people discrediting Francoeur’s accomplishments, so far. That just bugs me, how some can be so short-sighted on how far he’s come, and I think how far he’ll go. The kid appears to have good work ethic, and a willingness to listen to coaching, and at least TRY what they suggest.

Andruw didn’t, and as Furcal got older (what is he, 46 now?), his “approach” got worse and worse, with him hacking for the fences all the time.

Sorry to take up so much blog. Sorry to drag this discussion/topic on longer than it needed to. But what I thought was a harmless (and legitimate comment) about Furcal’s “wonder season” in 1999 in A-ball, apparently struck a nerve.

No harm, no foul, right?

Unless you specifically ask me another question, or respond to this (which I’m sure you won’t), it will be the last of this subject that I post.

SIDE NOTE

Funny story for you all. I’ve got a buddy that’s a Braves fan and we hadn’t talked in a while, and usually our topics of discussion veer towards the steroids, when we’re talking baseball.

Anyhow, I called to gab, and he didn’t answer, which led me to his voicemail. So I decided to be funny and leave a gag message (knowing he’d recognize my voice).

I stated that I wasn’t happy with my physique, and desired to put on 20-25 pounds of lean muscle this winter, and was wondering if he knew where I could get my hands on some lidocaine and B-12. Then asked if he found some if he was interested in injecting them into my azz.

I hadn’t heard from him, so I decided to call him this morning, upon which I asked if he enjoyed my message, or if his wife just rolled hers eyes as he played it back, just like my wife did when I was leaving it.

He stated that he NEVER got my message. Then called his wife to ask if she had erased it and forgot to tell him about it. She said no.

So it appears I left a message on a complete strangers phone asking if they know where I could get some drugs, and if they would like to inject them into my azz.

I don’t care who you are……that right there, is FUNNY!

By David O'Brien

January 10, 2008 10:45 PM | Link to this

By the way, speaking of the original “Way Down in the Hole,” it’s on Waits’ Franks Wild Years (sic), an excellent album that I happened to finally get on CD two days ago when I found a used copy at Don’s Ella Guru CD haven in Toco Hills Shopping Center here in Atlanta. Who in the world would sell back Waits’ Franks Wild Years, I can’t imagine. But until now I’d only had it on cassette, and that baby sounded like squirrels were eating on it every time I tried to play it.

There’s some other great music on The Wire, too. I love when they play the Pogues’ Body of an American, which they have numerous times. Pogues are one of my very favorite bands of the past 20 years. Tremendous group.

And now, a special late-night treat on the blog for those who waded through this post and this whole discussion:

It’s Tom’s original, from season 2 credits

By cmk

January 10, 2008 10:49 PM | Link to this

While Santana obviously would not make the Mets the runaway winner in the East next year, I think some of you are downplaying what kind of impact he could make for them. He would replace Glavine, Martinez becomes the number two, Maine and Perez were both under 4 era last year will be numbers 3 and 4, with a combination of Pelfrey/Hernandez/Humber/whoever at the 5. It’s not Boston’s rotation, but it isn’t bad either. Bullpen is a crapshoot every year. Most of the time you don’t know what you’re going to get out of 2/3 of your bullpen. The lineup won’t see any big additions, but I don’t see it scoring significantly fewer runs than a year ago. Again, this all depends on trading for Santana, but if that occurs, certainly gives the Mets more than reasonable potential for 90+ wins. Injuries could wreck all of that, but the same can be said of Chipper/Glavine/Smoltz or Hamels/Howard/Utley - all guys who are old or have had injury problems. Not trying to cause trouble on a Braves blog - just throwing my opinion out there.

By N8coeur

January 10, 2008 10:59 PM | Link to this

DOB

“…and that baby sounded like squirrels were eating on it every time I tried to play it.”

Funny. All my Whitesnake tapes sound like that too.

Weird, huh?

By N8coeur

January 10, 2008 11:02 PM | Link to this

cmk

If there is a Braves fan, in denial enough to NOT think the Mets obtaining Santana’s services wouldn’t “change” things.

You need not apologize if you were to “cause trouble on a Braves blog”

The trouble would run much deeper if that were the case.

By David O'Brien

January 10, 2008 11:07 PM | Link to this

now for those delving deeper, or just up late typing on the interwebnet because TV these days stinks (even John Stewart doesn’t have his writers back yet), here’s some of The Genius

By David O'Brien

January 10, 2008 11:09 PM | Link to this

N8, all whitesnake tapes sounded like that fresh out of the plastic. different type of crappy sound i’m talking about (wink).

By Steve McP

January 10, 2008 11:11 PM | Link to this

That is funny N8, even funnier if the person you called has caller ID!

By N8coeur

January 10, 2008 11:37 PM | Link to this

DOB

The Whitesnake comment was intended to get a rise out of you. I was laughing at your response as I typed it. I didn’t know EXACTLY what your response would be, but I knew I’d enjoy it. I had a hard time going with the “Whitesnake”, I was gonna go with the Bon Jovi Unplugged from last night, but anytime I can get the word Whitesnake on the blog, I can’t pass that up. LOL!

Steve McP

If my phone rings and “MITCHELL” comes up on MY caller ID, I don’t think I’m gonna answer it. :-)

By Bryan

January 10, 2008 11:51 PM | Link to this

NIce Waits video … god i love that song … funny story, i just saw that video tonight on one of my friends myspace profiles … a very nice young lady to boot!

Hey, i know your a steve earl expert and all … but i heard David Wright wrote Devil’s Right Hand … Hate to call you out on your own Man in Black/Steve Earl/Braves blog…

By Sonny

January 11, 2008 12:35 AM | Link to this

Anyone else notice that Giles decline began the same year baseball started testing for steroids? Mmmmmmmm. I’m sorry, but you don’t just forget how to play baseball all of a sudden.

By BosnianBaller

January 11, 2008 12:35 AM | Link to this

yeah Always Sunny In Philadelphia and The Office are hilarious.Hey DOB we know your rock music choices what about rap? To me it’s only eminem b/c he doesn’t rap about money or women or any of the crap rappers rap about today.

By uga-brave

January 11, 2008 1:14 AM | Link to this

well we now know that it is getting close to “PITCHERS AND CATCHERS REPORTING TIME”.

N8 and efrim are now back and in full bore. i love it. always have loved N8’S posts except when he continues to badger with a child.

LEW, i know you hate the mets, but if they wind up

with santana they have as good or better rotation.

they have the better closer but their bullpen depth is definetly an issue.

as for the everyday lineup it might be a push.

their outfield is better than ours, we get them at catcher and first base. though delgado aint bad but TEX is gonna be on the mid-summer roster.

i think the difference is REYES and CASTIILO, both those guys at this point are better than escobar and johnson. plus as a 1, 2 combination they know how to get on base. we really dont, let me rephrase that , we aint got a leadoff hitter.

we got no ROLLINS, REYES, both those guys are thorns in our side.

a great leadoff hitter changes the way a game is pitched.

for what it is worth k.j. is probably our best option.

By CharlieAlphaBravo

January 11, 2008 1:24 AM | Link to this

You’re right Bosnian… When so many rappers only talk about money and women, it’s so nice to hear one that instead raps about killing his wife and homosexuals. How refreshing. Try Talib Kweli, Dialated Peoples, Wu Tang Clan, Outkast, the Roots, or Jurassic 5. All of them are leaps and bounds ahead of the field (including Eminem)…

By Hotspur

January 11, 2008 1:25 AM | Link to this

DOB -

Ahh, right you are. My bad, ‘cause I was flying through the posts and didn’t read carefully enough. Mea maxima culpa.

Regardless: man oh man, do I love “The Wire” and do I EVER love that song, in every version they’ve used.

And unto you! :-)

By Lew

January 11, 2008 1:32 AM | Link to this

UGABrave-Even with Santana, Pedro and El Duque are old and often injured. Neither are going to pitch tons of innings and with the bullpen issues, that’s going to end up a problem. Maine can’t do it all on his own and Perez was real hot and cold the second half of the season.

Even if they made a good run at it this year (supposing Moises, Castillo the pitching staff and Delgado stay healthy), what about the next couple years when all of them will pretty much be at the end of their careers and they gave up all their prospects and ML ready kids to get Santana?

The Phillies just lost Rowand, who was a major spark plug for their offense last year. They still have third base issues. They have two pitchers, Eaton and Moyer, who had ERA’s over 5 runs per game. Even with Myers back in the rotation, they are thin and will get hammered in their little league stadium. Their bullpen is not that strong either. They will still score runs, but the Phillies are hardly a lock for anything, either.

The Braves may have question marks in center and maybe somewhat at short, but we have the deepest infield, rotation and bullpen in the division. We have the capability of winning the division. I would doubt that we run away with it, but we can definitely win. So can the Phillies, but without Santana, I don’t see the Mets fighting off injuries to pull it out and even with Santana, they are hardly a lock, either.

What would you think of the Dawgs being ranked Number One pre season next year?

By uga-brave

January 11, 2008 1:36 AM | Link to this

a great leadoff hitter is key. how many times has reyes, or rollins burned us. reyes and rollins change the game early and late in the game.

we had the same thing in furcal. though i dont think he is worth what the dodgers are paying him, but he is still scary as a leadoff guy. speed kills.

so who hits leadoff for the braves? k.j. or escobar? both are better suited to hit in the 2 hole or deeper in the lineup.

i really think we are gonna miss edgar when it is all said.

you cant replace a guy like him that understands situatonal hitting.

By Mike S

January 11, 2008 1:37 AM | Link to this

BosnianBaller, you’re right, Eminem keeps it real. Rapping about beating his wife, killing his mom, and condemning gays. Word.

By Mike S

January 11, 2008 1:40 AM | Link to this

Actually, Bosnian, I do like a lot of Eminem’s stuff and I get the point you’re getting at about most of today’s rap music, I just thought it sounded a little funny the way you said it, when the first thing I thought of was Eminem rapping about killing his mother, and figured I’d bust your chops. :)

By Nolie

January 11, 2008 1:44 AM | Link to this

Take, for example Brad Komminsk or more recently, Corey Patterson. Boiothplayers had tons of that intangible ABILITY, however viewing their statistics in those generalized or specific situations only tell us they never reached that ability.lEW

There are two sets of abilities being run together here.the guys who you mentioned had the physical tools to play baseball well but they did not necessarily have the ability to hit well.There have been literally hundreds if not thousands of athletic guys who never could hit and plenty of unathletic guys who could because they are two different abilities.Granted that the only thing that stats do perfectly is tell us what happened already. the most useful ones do give us some insights into ability though. OBP shows us about a players ability to get on base to create scoring opportunities. Sl% gives us an idea of how a player might do driving in runs as a guy with more power is more likely to get guys home from first with doubles or homers. One thing stats will never be able to do is tell us exactly how many or how much will occur in the future either from a player or a team . if they could anybody with a computer could correctly pick the final standings every year. Some of the newest created stats like VORP try to do this but they will never succeed cause there are just too many variables in the game as it is designed. and thank goodness too.

By uga-brave

January 11, 2008 1:53 AM | Link to this

lew,

you damn good dawg. i think the dawgs will be as good or better than anyone in college football next year.

but the scary part we play at south carolina, a.s.u, then lsu, fla, kentucky, and auburn all on the road. in consecutive weeks.

oct. 25th through nov. 15th we play lsu, fla, kentucky, auburn all on the road before we get back to the hedges.

no way we get back home winning all those games.

if we do the heck with the SEC championship, we deserve the crystal.

By ncgary

January 11, 2008 2:29 AM | Link to this

yeah ability and producing are 2 distinct words arent they, i have this old steinway from 1864 , had a mess cluttered over it for a long time , it isnt worth anything other than for making furniture legs is what i was told after i found it in an old dilapidated house on some land of mine, but after greenin for a while i uncluttered the mess and opened up the old baby grand and started ticklin the ivories , the first night it suxed second night i git a few good sounds , now i aint no concertists but i do have a new found talent,and i cant imagine any new pianos gettin the same sound as this one does, i did a little research and there were only 5 piano makers that year with the old man steinways last year, who knows this one might have finished up the day lincoln was shot, anyway for an old piano thats been sitting in a shed for around 100 years it still jams , so i had the ability and didnt know it, but yet i still want produce with it cause i do it just for funnin, anywayz get over it less than 6 weeks til p & c reports go braves

By Metropolitan Man

January 11, 2008 3:02 AM | Link to this

Just caught up on the blog today. Wow, still so much Anti-METS lies going on. Lew, you were in rare form. 1 thing that can be said is you love you braves as much as I love my METS. However, your 2008 braves lineup currently sucks….very badly. You have confidence in a team with 2 third place finshes in a row. You lost integral parts of the team (SS, CF) that wasnt replaced properly. If you are counting on Escobar,you will miss Renteria. Glavine may not have been on the DL, but he has missed starts and his stubborness wil not allow DL status (Keep him some baby aspirin). Smolzt is bound to take a break during the season which leaves us with Hudson. That is the only pitcher that will give teams fits. Your pen isnt scaring anybody besides Soriano, waitng on Gonzo will have you in a hole trying to climb out of just like the past 2 seasons. You worry about Pedro, us METS fans arent. We see Pedro taking Maine and Perez to another level while El Duque continues to throw 60 mph pitches past the opposition. The 5th starter was our achilles heel last year and that will decide 08’. They went 5-17 last year. If the 5th starter can actually produce 1 more win, then hey we are on our way to the 90+ mark which guarentees you a playoff spot in the NL East. Optimism is expected either way but I am already prepared to gloat for this season. You might not understand but I have a team that almost made the playoffs and want to make things right with the fans. You have some 3rd place finishes to shake off before you go touting your chest towards the playoffs and your offseason tells me you wont be doing any better than the past 2 years, I guarentee that!!!

DOB, a concsious reporter/journalist should know that using a word like “upitty” when describing Coco Crisp could cause concern for those who arent open minded or secure. I didnt expect anyone on this blog to pick that up but I did and wanted to let you know offense wasnt taken, but was more suprised you actually typed the word.

LETS GO METS!

By flange1

January 11, 2008 8:32 AM | Link to this

Metro Man,

Thanks for the overview of the Braves and the Mets. Your viewpoint is certainly interesting if nothing else.

A couple of things you left out:

The Mets had the most dramatic (I should call it Amazing) collapse in the history of baseball. Choke is not actually a good enough word for it. Did you for get that?

The Braves will have a full season of Tex. Did you forget about that?

The Braves have improved their rotation. They too had issues in the 5 hole. They have 8-9 candidates for their rotation this year, Did you forget about that?

The Mets lost their C and RF, sorry but who are the replacements? You want to talk about the Braves losing their CF and SS, remember that the new SS was in the lineup alot last year and did pretty well.

You say that there is no one to fear in the Braves bullpen but Soriano, but who is to fear in the Mets pen? Are you totally depending on Sanchez’s return and Wagner’s return to make your pen solid?

By the way, what is the fallout in NY from Wagner’s comments?

You guys got an attitude problem on the Mets team? How are the fans going to react to the Choke?

I’ll be waiting for your thoughts..

And by the way

GO BRAVES

By Braveheart

January 11, 2008 8:38 AM | Link to this

Metroman, I think many of us believed Random’s use of uppity was offensive. Or at least I did. There are definite very harmful racial/racist connotations about the use of that word, especially when it is said in reference to a black ballplayer. But I think Random’s use of it was meant more as a commentary that Bobby Cox was the racist who doesn’t like black players on his team, and especially not black players with attitude. Doesn’t make the use of that word right but I don’t think many of us wanted to take the bait and start a racial war. We’d rather fight all day about such trivial things as whether a triple is better than a Sac fly or whether there is such a thing as an RBI guy. There was an idiot last night who threw out the ‘token negro’ comment. That idiot was ignored and deleted as well from what I can see.

I think DOB knew what Random was trying to say and just tried to diffuse it without causing a race riot on the blog by focusing solely upon the literal definition of the word. DOB and many others here try really hard not to turn this into a sad little Falcons blog. But maybe we all should have just jumped all over Random for the pathetic use of that word. But whenever you do that, the trolls act like there is blood in the water and they start throwing out even more harmful racist phrases to get everyone fired up and the blog becomes hell and almost everyone ends up unintentionally saying something racist or racially insensitive in trying to address the issue. And then it gets really hard to tell who the good guys/bad guys are. But if you just let the comment stick out like a sore thumb, well, then the blogger himself sticks out like a sore thumb.

By rammerjammer

January 11, 2008 9:16 AM | Link to this

Morning, all.

Agreed that Braves should not sign Corey Patterson, as it will tempt BC to use him at leadoff. Don’t want none of that.

Kotsay would be a good stop-gap, but, really, it ain’t all that important.

We’re talking about the #8 hitter on a team LOADED with offense. Just need someone to catch and throw for one season until the kid is ready.

By Random

January 11, 2008 9:20 AM | Link to this

Apologies to anyone who may have been offended. Please read “uppity” to mean “disrUPTIve” in a misguided attempt to be cute and clever. Disruptive to clubhouse “chemistry” is what I meant. (Though, it turns out I was probably wrong about that too, as I mentioned earlier.)

Thanks, Braveheart (and DOB) for the benefit of the doubt (I think).

By Random

January 11, 2008 9:33 AM | Link to this

Shaun—

Okay.

By ncscoots

January 11, 2008 9:38 AM | Link to this

I swear, there should be new rules…

He’s only batting 8. Anyone posting something like this should be forever banned from complaining when said 8 hitter hits into a rally-snuffing DP.

Surely he can hit at least as well as AJ did last year. Anyone posting something like this should be reminded, often, of the third place finish that went along with that CF offense. Maybe a tattoo would work.

There’s a lot more in this vein showing up recently…brains too close to the hot stove, I’m guessing. We need actual, real, American baseball news, DOB! Or, at the very least, a controversial rumor with absolutely no basis in fact, LOL. Go start one, willya?

By Braveheart

January 11, 2008 10:15 AM | Link to this

Come on, scoots, I’m trying to find ways to be positive. It’s really hard to be positive about the centerfield/#8 hitter dilemma without trying to excuse it away by saying he’s just the 8 hitter or he can’t be worse than Andruw.

Gotta find a way to love Stopgap Eight or I become filled with Stopgap Hate.

By Efrim

January 11, 2008 10:19 AM | Link to this

Buster dropped this on his blog today

Oakland is looking for a right-handed hitting outfielder. The Athletics’ talks with Atlanta over Mark Kotsay have a chance of becoming serious today, by the way; the Braves are looking for a total salary dump, while Oakland wants a middling prospect coming its way while picking up some of Kotsay’s salary.

Sigh. I just don’t understand this. He is washed up. I understand Cameron wants two years at like 12-14 million, but why not? I think it is worth it. Whatever, as long as it isn’t Josh Anderson in CF.

By Billy Walsh

January 11, 2008 10:22 AM | Link to this

I still cant understand why or how the mets have the “lead” to land Santana. Any package that contains Hughes has to be the favorite. I still feel that Yanks are going to land him. If you are going to trade an elite #1 starter, why would you ask for outfielders and a mediocre pitcher from the Mets? If its not Bucholtz or Hughes the Twins would be crazy to deal him elsewhere. DOB, if Melky is available would the braves be interested, and what type of package would be needed to acquire him? Hes cheap, plays solid defense, great arm, and a line drive hitter. I would take him over Kotsay, Cameron, and Crisp in a second. I know the braves are only looking for stopgap, but what happens if Schafer doesnt pan out? For all the players that do realize their potential, there are many more that do not.

By Edward M

January 11, 2008 10:27 AM | Link to this

You keep mentioning Josh Anderson and Jordan Schafer as being the next centerfielder.Their’s a diamond in the ruff by the name of Gorkys Hernandez. Keep an eye on him in spring training.

By McFann

January 11, 2008 10:29 AM | Link to this

Funny story, Neight. Disturbing, yet comical. Ironically, just a few minutes ago, I answered the phone for my mother. It was some Discover Card thing that I could barely hear. Anyway, thinking it was a recording, I said, “I can’t hear the stupid thing.”

Turned out to be a live voice, asking for my father, who’s at work…oh well. Guess they’ll never call us again.

By DAP

January 11, 2008 10:41 AM | Link to this

“uppity” is a racist term? i think i missed something.

met man your 2008 braves lineup currently sucks….very badly.

your whole post was full of errors, but lets just take this one…the mets would love to have ONE hitter the caliber of chipper, and the braves have two, back-to-back. i think tex alone will pick up the slack lost when andruw left. andruw had 26 HR and 94 rbi, tex had 17 HR and 56 RBI while with the braves. i think its likely that tex will approach 43 HR and 150 RBIs (andruw and tex’s numbers combined) in 2008.

also, the braves have some of the best young players in the game in frenchy, mccann, escobar, johnson… the braves have a GREAT lineup, and anyone who knows what they are talking about agrees. the mets are just sad.

the mets NEED santana to have a prayer in 2008. and then, they will have limited replacements when castillo, beltran, delgado, alou, el duque, martinez hits the DL. i personally think the mets need to scrap it and build for the future. if i were them id would trade delgado, pedro, castillo, el duque, and any of the old players they could to get prospects, cause they need them. then they can build the team around wright, maine, reyes and beltran. if they chose to rebuild right now, they could be back in the NLCS in a couple of years.

By Shaun

January 11, 2008 10:51 AM | Link to this

I think it’s really pretty simple: Stats are basically measurements of what a player has done. Certain stats (OBP, SLG, ERA, RA) tell us more about ability than others (RBI, R, W-L), although there is no such thing as a completely perfect stat that is going to wholly and completely tell us about a player’s ability (no one ever said that). But it’s silly and just flat out wrong to say stats tell us nothing about ability. No one will every convince me that many of Chipper’s career stats tell me nothing about his ability only performance, as Lew asserted. I suppose if we measured how fast Lew typed, that would tell us nothing of his ability to type, just his performance. How ridiculous does that sound? Okay, I’m beating a dead horse here. And I think Lew is taking a Robert-type position here so no sense dignifying it with any more posts.

By Shaun

January 11, 2008 11:06 AM | Link to this

No after a player is established as a productive ML ballplayer, ability ceases to have any meaning and only performance matters.

I think this is the strangest statement I’ve ever read. Lew said himself performance and ability are related. So how does it not follow that if ability matters then performance matters? Can’t perform without ability. I doubt I’ll every perform like a Denzell Washington or Eddie Van Halen or Chipper Jones because I don’t have that ability. Ability will always have meaning because if a player no longer has ability, he won’t perform. Okay, that’s it. It’s getting ridiculous.

By flange1

January 11, 2008 11:08 AM | Link to this

Shaun,

I don’t want to speak for Lew, but I think his point was that Brad Kommink and Corey Patterson have ability and as minor league players showed potential.

The stats for them show their past performance. It shows what they actually did. It DOES NOT show their potential or even their ability.

Neither of these guys actualized their ability.

I think that this is another case of arguing over semantics and word choice versus arguing over ideas or philosophy.

By J.D. Phillips

January 11, 2008 11:17 AM | Link to this

Just don’t see the Mets with many aging players and that late season collapse lingering over their heads being able to rebound to win the N.L. East. A team really needs to step it up a notch in this division. I think the playoffs last year proved this division may be the weakest in the N.L. and I would not count on a wild card team emerging out of it. With a full season of Tex and Chipper batting back-to-back, the continuing improvement of younger players and IF Smoltz and Glavine both hold up I cannot see the Braves not being able to win this division and be a threat in the playoffs.

By rammerjammer

January 11, 2008 11:23 AM | Link to this

Banned? Forever?? I’ll risk it.

It’s the number eight hitter for cryin’ out loud. The bottom of the order. OF COURSE he’ll be a rally killer!

No negativity here at all. I’m absolutely positive it ain’t a big deal. If Frank wants to bring in Kotsay or whoever, that’s fine.

Now I DO think it’s good to have a vet out there…no sense putting in an overmatched kid who ain’t ready. Hurts him, and us.

But a vet who can throw and catch, with a reasonable OBP? Kind of a Cesar Geronimo type? Yeah, I think that’s just fine.

Regardless, I’m not losing sleep over it!

By David O'Brien

January 11, 2008 11:24 AM | Link to this

Billy Walsh, Braves believe only an injury could prevent Schafer from becoming a very solid major league player. After seeing him in Arizona against more advanced prospects, I’d have to agree.

But that possibility is a big reason they acquired Gorkys Hernandez, who’d be waiting in the wings if Schafer struggles or something else happens to him in the next couple years.

By David O'Brien

January 11, 2008 11:28 AM | Link to this

Edward M, the operative phrase in your post is “in the rough.” Gorkys just turned 20 in September and has played one full season of pro ball (in low A). He’s probably at 2-3 years from being a consideration for the major league team. And I won’t be able to keep an eye on him this spring simply because he won’t be in major league camp — he’ll be with the minor leaguers.

Very talented prospect, from all that scouts say. But still slender and still raw offensively. He’s a kid.

By David O'Brien

January 11, 2008 11:31 AM | Link to this

Efrim, by what Buster wrote, he was talking about only in the case of Kotsay. In other words, to trade for Kotsay the Braves would be looking for a total salary dump on the part of Oakland, due to Kotsay’s injuries and diminished production the last couple years.

That doesn’t mean they’re looking for a total salary dump from any center fielder. There are others they’d pay to have, who are very viable players without the risks that Kotsay has. Perhaps Cabrera, or a Crisp, or a Patterson, though as I’ve said only if Patterson came very cheap.

By David O'Brien

January 11, 2008 11:38 AM | Link to this

Flange1, just to add to your post that mentioned the Great ‘07 Collapse by the Mets: I was throwing out old magazines this morning and came upon a June Sports Illustrated with the Mets on the cover. It was a long feature about the great job Omar Minaya had done constructing the team, etc, and how the Mets had led the East for most of the ‘06 and ‘07 seasons to that point.

And just a few months later (and still today), Willie Randolph and even Minaya are on the hot seat.

So Mets worshipers, just blame it on the SI cover jinx.

By Braveheart

January 11, 2008 11:38 AM | Link to this

your 2008 braves lineup currently sucks….very badly.

The Braves will score 5 runs a game and over 800 runs for the season the way they have for the past 2 seasons.

*You lost integral parts of the team (SS, CF) that wasnt replaced properly….. If you are counting on Escobar,you will miss Renteria. *

Edgar was replaced with Yunel. Edgar had a career year last year. But in 2006, he hit .293, .361, .436 and the Braves scored over 5 runs a game that season. For his career, Edgar has hit .291, .349, .407. The Braves will get at least that from Yunel and the Braves will be happy with it.

Tex has replaced Andruw. No reason to get into statistical analysis to talk about how much of an upgrade that is.

Whomoever our centerfielder is, will be hitting 8th and will only have to do better than the .247, .304, .376 the Braves got out of 8 hitters last year to keep the team scoring over 5 runs a game.

Glavine may not have been on the DL, but he has missed starts and his stubborness wil not allow DL status (Keep him some baby aspirin).

You mean the guy who started 34 times for the Mets last season? You mean the guy who led the Mets in games started in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007? You mean the guy who led the Mets in innings pitched in 2004, 2006, 2007? You mean the guy who helped your team to a 42-24 record the last 2 years when he started?

Smolzt is bound to take a break during the season

Yeah, that old man who has started 100 games combined the last 3 years and has pitched 667 innings combined the last 3 seasons. Yeah, he might need a break for a week or so during the season but at least he makes over 30 starts and pitches over 200 innings. Tom Glavine is the only Mets pitcher to go over 200 innings the last 2 seasons.

which leaves us with Hudson. That is the only pitcher that will give teams fits.

Huh? In case you have not been paying attention, as good as Hudson is, Smoltz has been far better than Hudson the last three seasons.

Your pen isnt scaring anybody besides Soriano

Really? Keep sleeping on Peter Moylan and see where that gets ya. Acosta is pretty filthy. Yates is a decent middle reliever. Devine is filthy and has all the talent in the world if he gets his head and emotions in check. He made substantial progress with that last year and by the end of 2008 will be a dominant force to be reckoned with in the 7th and 8th the way Joba Chamberlain was for the Yankees last year. Bennett will be fine as a long reliever. Ohman is a really good lefty reliever now that he is out of the not so friendly confines. Ring is a good situational lefty except for all of those walks. The Braves are more than fine with their bullpen.

waitng on Gonzo will have you in a hole trying to climb out of just like the past 2 seasons.

What hole were they climbing out of last season? Gonzo was pretty much a nonfactor the whole season and the Braves had the 3rd best bullpen ERA in the NL.

Metroman, you sound like you are trying too hard to convince yourself.

By Braveheart

January 11, 2008 11:40 AM | Link to this

your 2008 braves lineup currently sucks….very badly.

The Braves will score 5 runs a game and over 800 runs for the season the way they have for the past 2 seasons.

*You lost integral parts of the team (SS, CF) that wasnt replaced properly….. If you are counting on Escobar,you will miss Renteria. *

Edgar was replaced with Yunel. Edgar had a career year last year. But in 2006, he hit .293, .361, .436 and the Braves scored over 5 runs a game that season. For his career, Edgar has hit .291, .349, .407. The Braves will get at least that from Yunel and the Braves will be happy with it.

Tex has replaced Andruw. No reason to get into statistical analysis to talk about how much of an upgrade that is.

Whomoever our centerfielder is, will be hitting 8th and will only have to do better than the .247, .304, .376 the Braves got out of 8 hitters last year to keep the team scoring over 5 runs a game.

Glavine may not have been on the DL, but he has missed starts and his stubborness wil not allow DL status (Keep him some baby aspirin).

You mean the guy who started 34 times for the Mets last season? You mean the guy who led the Mets in games started in 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007? You mean the guy who led the Mets in innings pitched in 2004, 2006, 2007? You mean the guy who helped your team to a 42-24 record the last 2 years when he started?

Smolzt is bound to take a break during the season

Yeah, that old man who has started 100 games combined the last 3 years and has pitched 667 innings combined the last 3 seasons. Yeah, he might need a break for a week or so during the season but at least he makes over 30 starts and pitches over 200 innings. Tom Glavine is the only Mets pitcher to go over 200 innings the last 2 seasons.

which leaves us with Hudson. That is the only pitcher that will give teams fits.

Huh? In case you have not been paying attention, as good as Hudson is, Smoltz has been far better than Hudson the last three seasons.

Your pen isnt scaring anybody besides Soriano

Really? Keep sleeping on Peter Moylan and see where that gets ya. Acosta is pretty filthy. Yates is a decent middle reliever. Devine is filthy and has all the talent in the world if he gets his head and emotions in check. He made substantial progress with that last year and by the end of 2008 will be a dominant force to be reckoned with in the 7th and 8th the way Joba Chamberlain was for the Yankees last year. Bennett will be fine as a long reliever. Ohman is a really good lefty reliever now that he is out of the not so friendly confines. Ring is a good situational lefty except for all of those walks. The Braves are more than fine with their bullpen.

waitng on Gonzo will have you in a hole trying to climb out of just like the past 2 seasons.

What hole were they climbing out of last season? Gonzo was pretty much a nonfactor the whole season and the Braves had the 3rd best bullpen ERA in the NL.

Metroman, you sound like you are trying too hard to convince yourself.

By Braveheart

January 11, 2008 11:40 AM | Link to this

Come on, scoots, I’m trying to find ways to be positive. It’s really hard to be positive about the centerfield/#8 hitter dilemma without trying to excuse it away by saying he’s just the 8 hitter or he can’t be worse than Andruw.

Gotta find a way to love Stopgap Eight or I become filled with Stopgap Hate.

By McFann

January 11, 2008 11:41 AM | Link to this

DAP

You are very correct about the BRAVES lineup. It ROCKS. Like you typed, the Mets are just sad. Maybe they’re also a little jealous of the BRAVES lineup. It’s true, the Mets would kill for a player like Tex or Chipper. And they got all those old guys! It’s like, DL City. I mean like, totally!!

But I guess before we spout out about how great we are, we oughta wait at least for Spring Training to start. (Pitchers and catchers report in 34 days!!!)

By nOLIE

January 11, 2008 11:42 AM | Link to this

Bobby Cox was the racist who doesn’t like black players on his team, and especially not black players with attitudeBraveheart

What a total load of cr@p.Everybody loves playing for Cox including the black players. there has never been any indication that he is prejudiced against blacks. and plenty of players were unhappy with Lofton in Atlanta. and as has been stated already he has been averaging about a team and one half per year the last 6 years and nobody brings him right back. Has absolutely nothing to do with him being black and everything to do with his attitude and behavior.

By ncscoots

January 11, 2008 11:51 AM | Link to this

Gotta find a way to love Stopgap Eight or I become filled with Stopgap Hate.

roger that, bubba. :-) Which is why I’d love to see someone in CF who ISN’T going to bat 8, LOL.

But, I actually understand the rationale (or spin) that some put on the situation. It’s no fun contemplating the bottom third of the order with two rookies and the pitcher.

By DAP

January 11, 2008 12:08 PM | Link to this

Shaun Okay, that’s it. It’s getting ridiculous.

its been ridiculous ever since you got here. just kidding. but not really. :-)

J.D. Phillips I think the playoffs last year proved this division may be the weakest in the N.L.

i dont see how you got to that conclusion. the cubs won the central last year with 85 games. they lost in the first round too. i think most everyone would agree THAT the worst division in baseball, nevermind the NL. just curious, why do you think the east is the weakest?

By Lew

January 11, 2008 12:41 PM | Link to this

MetroDude-I know you are really concerned about how bad the Mets will be this year and I realize that makes you say things you don’t mean-that you certainly can’t justify- but Mets’ lies? Surely you don’t think I would LIE do you?

Fact-Duaner Sanchez has pitched zero innings in over a year. You’re counting on him to make your bullpen actually work this year.

Fact-Carlos DelGado had his worst season of his career in BA, SLG% OBP, and OPS+. He is 36 years old and missed 23 games. The Mets have NO backup 1B.

Fact-Pedro Martinez has pitched 84 innings since June 1, 2006-22 months from the start of this season. You are counting on him to lead your staff (providing you don’t land Santana-at what cost to the future?). He has chronic foot and leg issues and is returning from major arm surgery.

Fact-The Mets have no pitcher who pitched 200 innings or more-He is with the Braves.

Fact-El Duque Hernandez is 43 years old and only pitched 147 innings last year. I foresee strain on the less than dominant pen and the need for another non existent starting pitcher to fill in for him.

Fact-Moises Alou is 42 years old, has chronic leg problems and missed 75 games.

Fact-Castillo is 35 years old, has chronic leg problems and missed 27 games.

Fact-Oliver Perez had an ERA of almost 5 runs per game the final two months of 07.

Fact-Mike Pelfrey won all of 3 games and had a 1-1 K to BB ratio.

Fact-You replaced an All Star Catcher with one who hit .235 in 400AB.

Fact-You replaced Green in right with Schneider who missed 18 games.

Fact-Your much vaunted closer has come out VOCALLY about how bad the Mets are this year and how dissatisfied he is.

Fact-In order to get Santana, the Twins are asking for a package including the 5 top prospects in your system. You will be left with one of the oldest teams in MLB and no talent ready to replace any of them.

Those are the facts, MetroDude. No lies involved. Every fact carefully researched and double checked. All the truth, the whole truth and nothing but worries for the Mets. Y’all need Santana to hope you can even equal last year’s less than stellar performance.

By Braveheart

January 11, 2008 12:50 PM | Link to this

Sorry about the double posts. Don’t know what happened there. Bizarre.

Nollie Your 11:42 post was completely freaking irresponsible. To pull that quote out of what I said in my 8:38 post was pathetic. Provide some damn context. By no means do I believe Bobby Cox is racist. But you pull that quote out and post it with zero context to make me look like I was saying Cox was racist. Nollie, I had respect for you but I just lost a ton. That was the move of a little punk with little reading comprehension. Now I know what athletes mean when they say they were taken out of context.

By Random

January 11, 2008 1:00 PM | Link to this

Forget the Kentucky Derby — the new “most exciting two minutes in sports” is Brian McMann hitting a triple.

By David O'Brien

January 11, 2008 1:02 PM | Link to this

MetroMan, apparently you didn’t grasp my use of quotation marks around the word. Oh, well. Read or be offended by whatever you see fit to read or be offended by, my friend.

By Shaun

January 11, 2008 1:08 PM | Link to this

flange1, I see your point and Lew’s point. But his words were stats tell us absolutely nothing about ability, which I think is obviously not true.

By DAP

January 11, 2008 1:11 PM | Link to this

Your pen isnt scaring anybody besides Soriano

why would soriano be afraid of his own bullpen?

By J.D. Phillips

January 11, 2008 1:14 PM | Link to this

DAP -

The N.L. West has to be considered the strongest. I was basing the Central having a little advantage over the East because it has been 2003 since the East has even has a team reach the World Series. The central IMO also seems to have a little more completion from top to bottom. Maybe this is because the teams are weaker or perhaps more competitive. I don’t know. The Reds alone gave the Braves enough trouble. However, I see your point. I just figure this seems like the right time for the Braves to assert themselves back to where they belong. That being the N.L. champs.

By Random

January 11, 2008 1:17 PM | Link to this

nOLIE—

I never said that, I never meant that, I’ve never thought that.

And don’t blame Braveheart for calling me on my indiscretion and/or lack of sensibility.

And please read other relevant posts before you go nuclear.

By Braveheart

January 11, 2008 1:22 PM | Link to this

Sorry about the double posts. Don’t know what happened there. Bizarre.

Nollie Your 11:42 post was completely freaking irresponsible. To pull that quote out of what I said in my 8:38 post was pathetic. Provide some damn context. By no means do I believe Bobby Cox is racist. But you pull that quote out and post it with zero context to make me look like I was saying Cox was racist. Nollie, I had respect for you but I just lost a ton. That was the move of a little punk with little reading comprehension. Now I know what athletes mean when they say they were taken out of context.

By cricket

January 11, 2008 1:25 PM | Link to this

Looks like totally against my nature, I’m going to pat the dead horse left alone by Shaun. Some stats should be considered in proper context, which itself can be provided by other stats. E.g. OBP and SLG give good indication of any hitter’s productivity. OBP and SLG with RISP give very good indication of any hitter’s ability of producing runs. A guy with better OBP and SLG with RISP is the guy who should hit at a position in the lineup where he would get more opportunities to hit with RISP.

By ncscoots

January 11, 2008 1:39 PM | Link to this

Random, just on the off chance that there actually is a reason for it, what’s the deal with setting bold links everytime you mentioned someone’s name? Are you really expecting folks to click back to the comment, or do you just like the way it looks?

In any event, that kind of thing gets to be one annoying goober after a while. :-)

By DAP

January 11, 2008 1:40 PM | Link to this

J.D. Phillips I just figure this seems like the right time for the Braves to assert themselves back to where they belong. That being the N.L. champs.

word.

The central IMO also seems to have a little more completion from top to bottom.

yeah, complete crap. houston, pitsburgh and cincinnati all qualify as horrible, i would categorize st. louis on the low end of mediocre…actually maybe on the high end of horrible, and milwalke at the high end of mediocre, with the cubs being the only “good” team.

By SNIPER-69

January 11, 2008 1:42 PM | Link to this

LEW, your’re making excellent points. But the one Fact you left out is that they still won more games than the braves. despite all the other facts you pointed out. I do agree the Mets pitching rotation has more question marks than the braves but that was the same last year. No one could have predicted that Maine and Perez would each win 15 games with ERA’s in the Three’s. The season has to play out. I do beleive that getting Santana would make the Mets pretty good 1-5 (Santana, Pedro, Maine, Perez, El Duque). That would be solid rotaion……We’ll see.

By Braveheart

January 11, 2008 2:04 PM | Link to this

Random, my bad. It’s not right for me to get outraged at Nollie but not apologize to you.

By ncscoots

January 11, 2008 2:16 PM | Link to this

DAP, I’m gonna have to disagree with your characterization of the Brewers. That team has solid starting pitching (which could go to stellar, if Capuano returns to form), they’ve shored up their bullpen, and Fielder-Braun-Hardy-Weeks-Hart is a pretty good core of players. They’re my early pick for their division.

By J.D. Phillips

January 11, 2008 2:32 PM | Link to this

DAP yeah, complete crap

You got that right.

By dgd

January 11, 2008 2:44 PM | Link to this

Lew—Mostly good points in response to metroman, but the right fielder for the Mets replacing Green isn’t Schneider—he’s a good field/no hit catcher—the right fielder is Ryan Church from the Nationals. Church is a bit of a head case, but did make great strides last year. He’ll probably give the Mets about what they got out of Green. Church is younger but doesn’t throw like Green. If the Mets land Santana, I like their rotation more than that of the Braves, but agree that their team is old with many question marks. Don’t underestimate Brian Schneider’s positive influence on the Mets’ pitching staff though. The guy worked miracles with the ragtag rotation the Nationals trotted out last year (remember the dire 120 loss predictions for the Nats last off-season—as I remember our own DOB was a member of that chorus). Didn’t happen and Schneider was a big part of the reason why. I was really surprised the Nats parted with the guy….

By [TEST](http://www.ajc.com)

January 11, 2008 2:50 PM | Link to this

Braveheart—

No harm, no foul.

By David O'Brien

January 11, 2008 2:51 PM | Link to this

I have it from a very sound source that the Kotsay stuff has progressed quite a bit. More to come.

By DAP

January 11, 2008 3:07 PM | Link to this

scoots youre right about the brewers. id rate them as solidly mediocre.

By [TEST](http://www.ajc.com)

January 11, 2008 3:11 PM | Link to this

ncscoots: what’s the deal with setting bold links everytime you mentioned someone’s name? Are you really expecting folks to click back to the comment, or do you just like the way it looks?

I link as a convenience both to me (not having to extensively quote the post I’m commenting on) and to others (having the option of easily referencing the prior post — or not — without taking up a lot of page space).

I bold other bloggers’ names as a sign of respect.

Would it be less annoying if I were to forego the bold, or are the links themselves also annoying on their own?

PS: I do like the way it looks, but it’s an open relationship involving no significant emotional investment or commitment by either side. Like I said, a relationship of convenience. 8-)

By OrlandoFan

January 11, 2008 3:14 PM | Link to this

The more I think about it, the more I prefer Kotsay over Patterson. I think he brings more character and perhaps could fine the patented Braves fountain of youth that has helped so many (primarly pitchers, of course). Patterson is younger, I think, and undoubtedly has more opportunity to improve, but Kotsay just feels more like a Brave. Looking forward to hearing more. Oh, and I think Cabrera would have to be considred a longer-term solution. Too high a price tag.

By 22oz

January 11, 2008 3:28 PM | Link to this

Check off Mike Cameron. The Brewers have signed him to a one year deal.

By ncscoots

January 11, 2008 3:32 PM | Link to this

Random, no sweat, bro. If you keep using the links, I’m guessing I’ll be able to survive it :-).

Basically, I was just looking for a shot at using “one annoying goober” in a post, LOL (a tip o’ the cap to Braveheart for that fine blog phrase).

By uga-brave

January 11, 2008 3:37 PM | Link to this

dap,

from the standpoint of “team” the brewers may be mediocre, but their middle of the lineup is as good or better then the braves.

By David O'Brien

January 11, 2008 3:47 PM | Link to this

Here’s the top part of the story I just filed, which should be posted online soon. Kotsay called me a little while ago and it sounded like it could get done today, though the Braves would still have to look over the MRI and such before any announcement. So even if they do agree on a deal, it probably wouldn’t be finalized before Monday.

But anyway, here the story, or at least most of it:

By DAVID O’BRIEN dobrien@ajc.com

The Braves might soon have the short-term veteran center fielder they’ve been looking for, and Mark Kotsay said he’s excited about the possibility of coming from Oakland to fill the role.

Athletics general manager Billy Beane called Kotsay this morning and told him they were discussing a trade to send the 32-year-old center fielder to Atlanta for a mid-level prospect. The A’s would likely also pay a significant portion of Kotsay’s $8 million salary in 2008.

He’s a strong defensive center fielder and .282 career hitter in 11 major league seasons, but back surgery limited Kotsay to 56 games in a career-worst 2007 season (.214, one homer, 20 RBIs).

He said he’s finally recovered completely from March 2007 surgery, and Kotsay was on an elliptical machine during a workout Friday as he confirmed he could be traded to Atlanta.

“It does excite me,” the former Marlins and Padres outfielder said possibly playing for the Braves — even if it were only for one season, before he became a free agent after the 2008 season.

“I love Bobby Cox, and I like Atlanta and the Braves, as far as the team and organization, the history they have. They’ve always been competitive. It’s a great opportunity if this [trade] happens.”

Kotsay hit .214 with one homer in 214 at-bats before the out-of-contention A’s decided it best to shelve him in mid-August. He had arthroscopic back surgery in spring training, and said Friday that he rushed his recovery because he wanted to help the A’s stay in the playoff race.

“My team needed me and I probably came back too quickly,” said Kotsay, who totaled 72 doubles, 30 homers and 145 RBIs in 1,188 at-bats during the 2004-05 seasons, before chronic back problems flared in 2006.

By David O'Brien

January 11, 2008 3:52 PM | Link to this

By the way, Kotsay said he feels great, finally. He was working out, breathing hard on an elliptical machine when he called me.

When I asked him if he’s got some years left, he kind of laughed and said, “Got to.”

The way teams are paying players these days, I’d say so. Who could possibly walk away at 32 if you believe you can still produce and if someone will take a chance on you.

He acknowledged the Braves would be taking a gamble in that he played so little last year. But he said, and I believe him, that he really does feel good now, that he just rushed it too quickly last year. If you think about it, coming back in June from March 2007 back surgery was a bit extreme, even if it was “just” arthroscopic surgery.

He said they shaved off a piece of a disc, a piece that was lodged up under something. Said he thinks that’s what caused his problems in recent years.

By Shaun

January 11, 2008 3:53 PM | Link to this

Kotsay is a little older and had injury problems last year, but he’s not over-the-hill, even for a baseball player, and he’s hit .282/.337/.415 over his career versus Patterson’s .258/.298/.414 line. Patterson hasn’t really had a season as good as Kotsay had through age 27, so it’s looking like Patterson may never be so much as an average offensive player. Kotsay’s injuries and, to a lesser extent, age are a concern but it could be a nice low-risk deal depending on who the Braves give up.

By Josh H

January 11, 2008 3:57 PM | Link to this

DOB: Who do you think the Braves would send over in a trade? Hopefully no one of real value, like Lillibridge, or Brandon Jones. But I’m guessing you’re looking at giving up at least one decent prospect…maybe two if they take on a huge chunk of salary.

By 22oz

January 11, 2008 4:01 PM | Link to this

Looks like you really got the ball rolling on this deal DOB. This may settle the debate on whether Braves officials read the blog!

By uga-brave

January 11, 2008 4:01 PM | Link to this

well it looks like we found the one center fielder that had a worse year then andruw did.

if the braves pick-up anymore then $1 million of his contract they got fleeced. raul mondesi anyone?

By David O'Brien

January 11, 2008 4:03 PM | Link to this

If they get Kotsay and he’s healthy, I think you probably have your No. 2 hitter. He’s hit there far more than he has any other spot in the lineup (leadoff second-most) and his career numbers in the 2-hole are .281 average, .344 OBP, .422 slugging, 123 doubles and 42 homers in 1,968 at-bats.

One thing very attractive: he doesn’t strike out much. Less than once every eight at-bats in his career as a No. 2 hitter.

Kotsay’s never struck out 90 times in a season, and had more than 500 at-bats in six of his 10 seasons, and 495 in another.

Before missing most of last season, he had 606 at-bats in 2004, 582 in 2005, and 502 in 2006.

By David O'Brien

January 11, 2008 4:06 PM | Link to this

Josh H, I don’t think it’ll be anyone quite that highly rated in their system. I don’t think it’ll be one of the guys the Braves are really projecting as long-term future lineup regulars, and I don’t think it’ll be one of their very best pitching prospects.

By Jared

January 11, 2008 4:09 PM | Link to this

Kotsay just doesn’t seem like a wise move. The Braves are basically paying a few million for pretty what they could get from Anderson or Blanco or maybe even Schafer next season.

By Andy

January 11, 2008 4:20 PM | Link to this

Kotsay in a Bravos Uniform? Awesome!!!! Can’t wait to see this deal be official!

By Robert (Chipper Is The Best)

January 11, 2008 4:22 PM | Link to this

I’m not against the Kotsay move. It is a good move. The Braves will likely give up very little and its really low risk high reward type of move. I think overall I would prefer Patterson but Kotsay will fit the bill.

I think hoping that Anderson or Blanco can get the job done is a much higher risk than acquiring Kotsay. Besides I would bet either Blanco or Anderson will wind up being an unoffical platoon role with him anyway.

By David O'Brien

January 11, 2008 4:23 PM | Link to this

uga-Brave, one difference: Mondesi came to Atlanta coming off an injury-shortened season and with a terrible clubhouse reputation, after playing for four teams in the previous two seasons and having been run out of L.A. and Toronto earlier in his career.

Kotsay is coming off an injury-shortened season, but had a tremendous reputation as a team player with all three teams he’s played for in his pro career, the Marlins, Padres and A’s.

And before that, he was voted one to the all-time team in the College World Series, where he still holds several records from a couple of trips there with Cal State Fullerton. In other words, he’s been a winner most of his career, and no one has ever, ever accused him of not getting the most of his talent.

Yes, he’s a gamble like Mondesi in a sense of coming off a big injury. But Mondesi was three years older, with a LOT more wear and tear, both from the field and from years of late nights. Laaate nights.

By Nate

January 11, 2008 4:25 PM | Link to this

I wish they could put a package together and score Blanton along with Kotsay.

By 22oz

January 11, 2008 4:28 PM | Link to this

If Kotsay’s a good #2, then i like Kelly in the 7 spot. He looked good there the few games he played last season, and with his power, i think it would work very nicely RBI wise.

This trade is a gamble, no doubt. But if he can give us at the worst a half season to further develop Schafer, then its worth it.

By Shaun

January 11, 2008 4:28 PM | Link to this

Jared, there thinking is probably Anderson, Blanco and Schafer are very young and could use more seasoning. And if one of those guys steps up big time in Spring Training, well they have a quality extra outfielder and left-handed bat off the bench.

By Nate

January 11, 2008 4:29 PM | Link to this

Anderson isn’t much of a hitter. Blanco is a fourth outfielder type and Schafer isn’t ready. How could anybody bash this move?

By cpiw

January 11, 2008 4:31 PM | Link to this

hey everyone, check out this real picture of mrs. jamie kotsay

jamie kotsay

still opposed to this trade?

By mo in the boonies

January 11, 2008 4:33 PM | Link to this

And it doesn’t hurt that he’s got a good looking wife!

By David O'Brien

January 11, 2008 4:35 PM | Link to this

Just to underscore what I’m talking about, the difference between Mondesi and Kotsay, here’s something I found from a story when Kotsay signed his extension in july 2005. Then-new A’s owner Lewis Wolff was active in that negotiation with Kotsay:

“The person most giddy about this was Lew Wolff,” Beane said. “Like everyone else, he’s grown very fond of Mark as a person and for the way he represents the organization. … Mark’s as fundamentally sound and as complete a player as you’d want to find, and an absolutely class act and gentleman off the field.”

By OrlandoFan

January 11, 2008 4:36 PM | Link to this

As I wrote seconds before DOB filed his story, I like this move. I think the guy has some game, and he’s motivated highly to come back and prove his value. It’s like the Braves get a guy in his contract season, coming off injury, trying to re-establish his value for one more big, longer-term contract. The potential upside is much more likely than Anderson or Blanco could promise. Yes, it’s a gamble, but a cheap one.

By David O'Brien

January 11, 2008 4:37 PM | Link to this

Nate, I think you hit the nail precisely on the head (4:29 post), in terms of the Braves’ view of this situation.

By David-ATL14

January 11, 2008 4:39 PM | Link to this

My guess would be Joey Devine. Though I wish it was Boyer since he’s out of options.

Still a good move.

By DAP

January 11, 2008 4:39 PM | Link to this

uga-brave i wasnt comparing the brewers lineup to the braves lineup, so while your point is valid, its irrelevant.

By Salty

January 11, 2008 4:40 PM | Link to this

Kotsay: “I love Bobby Cox…”

That oughta set Robert off!!!

By uga-brave

January 11, 2008 4:42 PM | Link to this

gonna have a slew of LH hittters on this team. this might mean thorman’s days are numbered.

By David O'Brien

January 11, 2008 4:45 PM | Link to this

By the way, Kotsay has a .290 average with two homers in 30 games (106 at-bats) at Turner Field.

Which isn’t nearly as impressive as cpiw’s offering above.

By DAP

January 11, 2008 4:46 PM | Link to this

i have have to think about this trade (if it gets done) a little more before i know for sure what i think about it, but first impression, im glad the braves got a veteran. this is a very young team, and itll be good to have veterans at a number of key positions.

By McFann

January 11, 2008 4:49 PM | Link to this

So…what would the Braves have to give up in order to get this guy from the A’s? Doesn’t sound too bad of an idea, but that really depends on what they trade to the A’s, IMO.

Hey, 22oz, maybe if the new guy bats 2nd, then instead of having Johnson bat seventh, he could bat in front of Francoeur. I mean, ya know, Johnson pretty fast. ; )

By McFann

January 11, 2008 4:59 PM | Link to this

Bizarre. A whole buncha posts disappeared.

By Renegator

January 11, 2008 5:00 PM | Link to this

I like this trade so far. But we still don’t know who we have to give up and how much the A’s are paying of Kotsay’s 8 mil.

If he is a free agent next year then we don’t lose any money that can go towards trying to get Tex long term. Or more pitching next year.

By bigblackfurrycreaturefrommars

January 11, 2008 5:12 PM | Link to this

Sign his wife. Shes worth 3 million, i’d say. What a fine piece of grass she is standing on.

By Random

January 11, 2008 5:29 PM | Link to this

Braveheart—

No harm, no foul.

By David O'Brien

January 11, 2008 5:30 PM | Link to this

DAP, what’s the worst that can happen? They give up a mid-level prospect, pay maybe $3 mill of Kotsay’s salary, he gets hurt early and they have to go with one of the guys they were going to have to go with now, or they trade for another guy if they don’t think one of these guys can get the job done.

Really not a huge risk, in that they’d not be counting on him the way they were Mondesi and B.J. a few years back when both got hurt. Braves already have Anderson, and can stash him at Richmond in case Kotsay’s back acts up again. But I’m thinking, from talking to him, that the back problems might be corrected, at least enough for him to get through most or all of the season.

If he were to have a recurrence of problems at midseason, well, that extra 2-3 months of seasoning for Schafer might be all it takes. If not, like I said, Anderson’s there.

By Mac

January 11, 2008 5:32 PM | Link to this

But Kotsay was (a) never as good as Mondesi was at his best, and (b) already on the decline when he got hurt.

By Metropolitan Man

January 11, 2008 5:33 PM | Link to this

LEW DOB,and other brave fans. For a team to finish 3rd, you guys act as though you have closed the gap on the METS and philthies??? I think you guys better worry about Chumpers injuries because he may give you guys 100 games. Make sure him and Smoltz are on the same team because we all know Smoltz will call his lazy broken hooters grabbing butt out. What bench do the braves possess? The METS have Marlon Anderson, Damion Easly,and Chavez who all fill in nicely. Most probably put up better numbers then some of your starters in part time capacity while at times on the DL. 3rd place, thats where you guys will finish even without Santana. You guys act like the METS have a further way to the top then the braves. 1 game away from the division does not make one an automatic loser the following season. It should make you feel as though the division is thiers. Bottom line your additions and subtractions just dont compute to a better record than 08 for you guys. Keep hope alive bravesfans, your gonna needit more than METS fans, and thats REALITY!!!

By flange1

January 11, 2008 5:39 PM | Link to this

DOB,

Thanks for the inside info!

I will be happy if the deal happens.

But question for the group, if the deal happens, with Kotsay’s injury history, will the Braves carry 4 OF ( B. Jones/Diaz, Kotsay, Frenchy) with Infante as a potential CF backup or carry 5 OF with Anderson/Blanco as a backup?

My Choice would be to keep 5 OF, let Diaz also back up at 1B, keep Infante and Lillibridge as backup IF and then have the back up C.

We would be losing Thorman and Aybar…

Thoughts?

By JC FROM UT

January 11, 2008 5:47 PM | Link to this

I think Kotsay is the best option for a stopgap as long as Oakland is picking up some of the tab. Buster Olney mentiones that Oaland wanted a right handed outfielder, any chance the deal is expanded to include Matt Diaz along with a prospect or two and we get Blanton or Houston Street as well.

By Adam

January 11, 2008 5:48 PM | Link to this

I heard it was Joey Devine for Kotsay.

By ChrisinPA

January 11, 2008 5:51 PM | Link to this

bigblackfurrycreaturefrommars

nice to have another phishhead in the group!

By ChrisinPA

January 11, 2008 5:51 PM | Link to this

bigblackfurrycreaturefrommars

nice to have another phishhead in the group!

By David O'Brien

January 11, 2008 5:51 PM | Link to this

Don’t have an answer about whether Braves would carry 4 of 5 OFs if this deal goes through, and I don’t think Braves would make that decision until they see how well Kotsay holds up during spring training. I mean, if he’s perfectly fine in spring training and doesn’t have any problems with the back, they wouldn’t have to have an extra OF just to back him up. Know what I mean? That’s not a decision I think they’d make until they see how he feels this spring.

Also, the trade, even if they agree to it in next day or two, probably won’t be finalized until Braves examine MRIs of his back carefully, and probably have their own doctors examine him and take new pictures of the back to make sure it looks sound.

By Anders

January 11, 2008 5:51 PM | Link to this

From Ken Rosenthal at Fox Sports:

Kotsay, 32, would be a good fit if healthy, and he’s a free agent at the end of the season. However, his $8 million salary is beyond the Braves’ budget. The low-revenue A’s would want a higher-caliber prospect if they included cash in the deal.

In other words you either pay in prospects or pay the salary. Nobody gets a free ride so stop dreaming about sending a slug to the A’s and having them pay $4 mil of Kotsay’s salary. BTW- Kotsay married one of David Wright’s rejects.

By AdirondackDave

January 11, 2008 5:53 PM | Link to this

Ok, Kotsey looks like a good one-year pickup to me. A quality guy with plenty to prove this year. Who knows, Braves may catch lightning in a bottle and get a repeat of his 2004 season. If not, he does a nice job in the outfield and apparently isn’t costing much. Now maybe the guys can focus on getting Tex to sign on the dotted line.

By SNIPER-69

January 11, 2008 5:54 PM | Link to this

With Santana the Mets top of the rotation matches the braves. Santana, Pedro, Maine VS Hudson, Smoltz, Glavine. The back of the rotation may favor the Mets with El Duque and brave killer Oliver Perez. I know the Mets haven’t traded for Santana (YET) but it’s still the off season and it’s fun to contemplate.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves In 2008))

January 11, 2008 6:00 PM | Link to this

Hey , It’s not my money. Go for it. Kotsay is an established veteran with a bazooka for a throwing arm.

Apparently Oakland is willing to eat the majority of his contract and they are asking for nothing more than a mid-level prospect.

Three million , one year. It’s worth the risk/reward.

By BosnianBaller

January 11, 2008 6:03 PM | Link to this

I was taking about Eminem as a rapper.We all come up diffrently and it’s much better to say in a song something sucks than actually going out and hurting someone or something.

Kotsay should bat leadoff or seven

By Randy S

January 11, 2008 6:04 PM | Link to this

Ditto on BBFCFM

By nOLIE

January 11, 2008 6:09 PM | Link to this

Nollie Your 11:42 post was completely freaking irresponsible. To pull that quote out of what I said in my 8:38 post was pathetic. Provide some damn context. By no means do I believe Bobby Cox is racist. But you pull that quote out and post it with zero context to make me look like I was saying Cox was racist. Nollie, I had respect for you but I just lost a ton. TBravehart

Metroman, I think many of us believed Random’s use of uppity was offensive. Or at least I did. There are definite very harmful racial/racist connotations about the use of that word, especially when it is said in reference to a black ballplayer. But I think Random’s use of it was meant more as a commentary that Bobby Cox was the racist who doesn’t like black players on his team, and especially not black players with attitude

I pulled it out of your post. I’m sorry if I misread it, but to me it read as you were saying that Random(not you) was indicating that Bobby is a racist. You may not have meant that and if so I apologize, but that is how I read the post I still read it that way so if you meant something else please explain so that I can see where I went wrong. I was responding to the above and not accusing you of saying he is a racist, just vehemently saying that he is not.

By chris

January 11, 2008 6:18 PM | Link to this

DOB,

Another attractive thing about Kotsay is his OBP. I like this move so much more than picking up Patterson for that reason alone.

Chris from MD

By nOLIE

January 11, 2008 6:26 PM | Link to this

Check off Mike Cameron. The Brewers have signed him to a one year deal.22oz

Thank the Lord. One less overpriced bum we have to worry about signing with the Braves. Kotsay would be a great pickup if he is healthy, and not a huge mistake if he gets hurt ..depending on who we gave up.

By Greg in TN

January 11, 2008 6:29 PM | Link to this

Evening gang…

Some quick thoughts on today’s news from DOB on Mark Kotsay. I remember him blister a very good Vols pitching staff in the 1995 CWS en route to an MVP and a title for the CS-Fullerton Titans.

I think a deal for Kotsay works well for the lads of the Tomahawk, gives Jordan Schafer time to jell in Mississippi and we have a guy that has a solid bat and someone I feel is a solid replacement for Renteria in the 2 hole when healthy, and from DOB’s conversation with him, it sounds like he will be.

Back out gang, but will slide back in later for a bit between HS basketball and gearing up to make the drive down I-75 to the land of the peach tomorrow for Braves Fest.

An aside before I do file back out, haven’t seen any posts from Chris Klob lately, I hope the Klobber is still doing well. Chris, your absence from the blog is noted my friend. Hurry back.

By TennesseePaul

January 11, 2008 6:32 PM | Link to this

No word on who is included from the Braves side I guess. I would imagine one of the CF we have would be included to take his place for the A’s. They’ve made no secret about aiming for the gutter in 2008. So it probably wouldn’t matter if it’s Anderson or Blanco.

By David O'Brien

January 11, 2008 6:37 PM | Link to this

Coach, you’re right about his arm: Entering last season, Kotsay led the majors with 105 outfield assists since 1998, ahead of Vlad Guerrero (102), Bobby Abreu (95), Andruw Jones (90) and Carlos Beltran (87).

I was covering the Marlins in 2000 when Kotsay, playing RF, recorded three assists in one game at Baltimore, including two in one inning.

By Braveheart

January 11, 2008 6:41 PM | Link to this

Nollie, I just didn’t like the way you attributed the quote to me in the fashion you did. Let’s just say random used an unfortunate word, i misinterpreted random in an unfortunate way, you quoted me in an unfortunate way. we’re all good dudes who respect each other so let’s all just say no hard feelings and pretend none of it happened. but man when i saw you quoted me like that it sure as hell ticked me off. now that i have cooled off and read your response, i realize where you might have been coming from. so, no hard feelings.

By Lew

January 11, 2008 6:44 PM | Link to this

MetroDude-The Braves have improved their team during the offseason, with new utility guys, a more dependable starter in Glavine and with the addition of Jurrjens -now apparently Kotsay. The Mets have lost Glavine, lost Green, lost LoDuca and replaced them with iffy players at best. They have not replaced Glavine, much less added needed depth to their ancient, injured pitching staff. They are counting heavily on three pitchers, Pedro, ElDuqe and Sanchez, who have missed all or major portions of the past two years.

The Phillies lost their center fielder and haven’t replaced him. They have no established third baseman. Their bullpen is suspect even with the Houston trade. They have two pitchers who had ERA’s in the 5’s. They are not stronger, either. Who knows if the good or evil Burrell will show up.

Seems to me your citing third place finishes is pretty disingenuous, especially considering the Mets played sub .500 baseball from the end of May until the end of the season, culminating in the worst tanking of baseball history. Tell me again why we should be quaking in our Adidas?

By McFann

January 11, 2008 6:44 PM | Link to this

MetMan

Seriously, dude. You really are pathetic. The way you keep touting the Mets and bashing the BRAVES makes you seem insecure. I think you’re just so terrified of the BRAVES that you’re willing to jump on any little thing that might go wrong. Our bench? we got Omar Infante, Martin Prado…but you’ll really have to wait for Spring Training to make your judgement. All I cann type is, tell your Mets friends that they better get ready to face a much better BRAVES lineup than the one they saw last year! (Except shortstop. That’s not quite as good as last year, but other than that!!)

By chris

January 11, 2008 6:51 PM | Link to this

This is a terrific move if all Kotsay costs is a mid level prospect and the A’s eat part of his salary. Why does Beane still do business with the Braves? As far as I’m concerned, Wren has made a series of strong moves this winter. He hasn’t overreacted. With this kind of management, I’d hate to be a Phillies or Mets fan.

By SNIPER-69

January 11, 2008 6:52 PM | Link to this

Check out “mlbtraderumors.com” It seems that the Mets have become the front runners for Santana. I personaly like the Mets agressiveness. I don’t think that trading some of your farm system hurts a big market team the way it does a small market team. The Mets have the money to re-load unlike lets say the Twins, Pirates ect ect. Look at the Yankees and Red sox as an example. The Mets do have some home grown talent on the roster but they’ve filled in the gap through free agency because they can. I must say I’m excited about the possibility of bringing in one of the best pitchers in baseball to New York.

By chris

January 11, 2008 7:01 PM | Link to this

I just saw that on mlbrumors.com. That’s a great site. I still don’t know who the Twinkies get for giving up Santana to the Mets and Reyes isn’t involved.

By Braveheart

January 11, 2008 7:01 PM | Link to this

The Mets are NOT going to land Santana. This is classic. Teams use the Mets and the Red Sox to get the Steinbrenners acting like a bunch of children who have overdosed on sugar. The Steinbrenners can’t stand for the Mets to ever steal the back page of the Post or the News. The Twins know that. They are only bluffing with the Mets to bait the Steinbrenners into giving the Twinkies what the Twinkies want.

By SNIPER-69

January 11, 2008 7:04 PM | Link to this

Lew, Spring training hasn’t started yet but it’s great to see the trash talking heating up. I do think the braves have improved their rotation but have taken a step back in defense with the loses of Jones and Renteria. The Mets mean while have upgrade defensivley with Schnieder and Church but need to fill the vacancy that Glavine left. Pedro should do that but that won’t be enough to be strong contender for the division. The trade for Santana would do that. If you can honestly say as a man that that trade becoming a reality doesn’t worry braves fans a little I would doubt your character a bit.

By Braveheart

January 11, 2008 7:10 PM | Link to this

Come on Mets fans. Be realistic. The Twins have no interest in any of the crap you guys are offering up. The Twins know they blew it back in December when they had the Red Sox and Yankees one upping each other. Now, they are trying to bait the Yankees and the Mets into one upping each other. The Mets have no shot at winning that bidding war - especially not with the crap they are offering.

By Ray

January 11, 2008 7:12 PM | Link to this

there’s rumblings that joey devine is in the trade, any truth to this??

By nOLIE

January 11, 2008 7:16 PM | Link to this

now that i have cooled off and read your response, i realize where you might have been coming from. so, no hard feelings.Braveheart

Cool with me. Just a communication snafu.

By DonCoburleone

January 11, 2008 7:27 PM | Link to this

I like this move by Frank Wren. A nice little gamble that all GM’s have to make in order to produce a winning product year in and year out. Worst case scenario his back flares up again and we lose $3mil and a fringe prospect, no big deal…

DOB, would a Scott Thorman or Martin Prado be too high a caliber player to include in this deal? Or do you think it will probably be more like an A or AA level prospect?

By GeorgetownKid

January 11, 2008 7:37 PM | Link to this

In the big scheme of things, this is a relatively low-risk move in that it only involves a one-year committment, a few million dollars, and a mid-level journeyman prospect. So it is foolish for anyone to bash this move too much, because the stakes aren’t particularly high.

That being said, I don’t see how the modest increase in offensive production (with Kotsay over Anderson or Schafer) is worth $3 million and a lost prospect.

It just doesn’t seem like a very high return-on-investment.

By chris

January 11, 2008 7:38 PM | Link to this

The thing I love about the Mets is that since its inception, it’s been a carnivalesque organization. The team is usually outlandish. They started out with a senile manager and completely inept players with names like Choo Choo Coleman. In its golden era, it was team of freakish characters like Dykstra and Strawberry that would steal bases and start on-field brawls with ten run leads. Then its Mo Vaughan and Vince Coleman. Now it’s an experiment on how ancient a team that can be fielded and still be in MLB. The fans are completely neurotic, paranoid, filled with delusions of grandeur, and consumed with a rage that can come only from spending life in New Jersey or on the Long Island Expressway. They don’t care about winning. They just want to win ugly. You go to a game at Shea, and they’re usually screaming profanity and screeching about the sexual orientation of players from visiting teams. A Met hits a homerun, and a nasty, giant, dented tin apple arises from behind the CF fence and fans scream, venting their joyous hatred of life. It’s kind of endearing in a sick way.

Now Mets fans are fantasizing and boasting about a magical trade that will slay their bugbear, Chipper Jones and his Braves. God, I love being a Braves fan. I love that the Mets exist. Spring training can’t come soon enough.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves In 2008))

January 11, 2008 7:44 PM | Link to this

The splits on Kotsay are interesting to say the least. His BA is .282 facing both right handers and lefty’s.

However , he pounds the ball against right handers with 80 Hr’s vs. 23 against the southpaws.

Here is a scouting report on him.

Assets : He’s an excellent contact hitter and has made great strides in the patience department. Though he doesn’t have blazing speed, he knows how to run the bases. His biggest asset is an arm that has explosiveness that would put to shame anything Smith & Wesson could concoct.

Flaws : Though he can hit both righties and lefties with equal consistency, he is more susceptible to the strikeout against southpaws.

Career potential : A very dependable everyday center-fielder.

By Ray

January 11, 2008 8:17 PM | Link to this

MLB.com on Friday got confirmation from multiple sources that the A’s and Braves are close to finalizing a deal that would send Kotsay, 32, and cash to Atlanta for at least one high- to mid-level prospect, but the most connected such source said the deal “absolutely” wouldn’t be closed before Monday.

http://oakland.athletics.mlb.c…sp&c_id=oak

By TennesseePaul

January 11, 2008 8:42 PM | Link to this

Of course, the value of compensation the A’s would be looking to receive would be based on the portion of Kotsay’s salary that they’d continue to pay. When these talks began, the A’s were asking for some highly regarded prospects
—[Mark Bowman](http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080111&content_id=2344103&vkey=hotstove2007&fext=.jsp

By TennesseePaul

January 11, 2008 8:48 PM | Link to this

Try this link

http://mlb.mlb.com/news/article.jsp?ymd=20080111&content_id=2344103&vkey=hotstove2007&fext=.jsp

By SNIPER-69

January 11, 2008 8:53 PM | Link to this

Thanx chris for caring. It’s a miracle the Mets have won 2 world championships even with all their malfuctions. If we could just be more like the braves who since arriving in Atlanta have only won one world series we would be on our way to recovery.

By David O'Brien

January 11, 2008 8:57 PM | Link to this

DonC, while I wouldn’t rule out someone like a Thorman or Prado being part of the deal, I’d think A’s would want at least that much. I’m thinking a younger guy, maybe not as far along in his development as either of those two but with a higher potential ceiling.

By Ray

January 11, 2008 9:05 PM | Link to this

i dont think A’s have much use for thorman/prado. they have enough 1b/2b as is. unless Prado plays a good SS.

According to Buster Olney the Braves want a complete salary dump, while the A’s want to pay partial salary for a prospect in return.

By Lew

January 11, 2008 9:16 PM | Link to this

Sniper-You would doubt my character if I didn’t get worried about the Mets getting Santana? Just how would that make me a bad person? We need to get something straight here, too-I’m not talking trash. Tell me exactly where I have miscalculated anything whatsoever to do with the Mets.

You have not replaced Glavine. You THINK Pedro will win 13 games, yet he has not pitched a full season in two years. He has pitched a total of 84 innings in the preceeding 22 months when the season starts. You will be quite lucky if you get 125 innings from him. Glavine pitched over 200.

What about the depth of your rotation? What happens if El Duque misses time again? How many times was he DL ed last year? At least twice. What if Pedro’s toe problems start up again? Or his hip? Or if his surgically repaired arm hurts again? Who will you put in their spots? All of those rookies you’re going to trade for Santana? How about Pelfrey at the back of the rotation who stunk last year and only won 3 games? What about the poor bullpen who will have to pitch all of those innings that your starters don’t?

What do you do when DelGado goes down again? You don’t even have a back up 1B on your roster. What about when Moises misses half a season yet again? How good are your replacements for LoDuca and Greene?

Dude, I keep hearing about all this cash the Mets have to sign whomever they need since they have no farm system. Yet they haven’t spent anything (except to sign Alou) in two seasons. They haven’t even found any reject pitching for depth.

Time for you and MetroDude to face facts-The NMets are significantly weaker than they were last year, when they were a team with a losing record from June to the end of the season. By the last month, they were in absolute disarray and they have done nothing in the offseason to amend that fact. I can’t understand why you are so optimistic.

Now the Braves. Yes, we lost Andruw Jones. It’s a shame, but he was not worth the cash. We have plenty of replacements capable of playing a good defense. It now looks like we will get Kotsay, so the offense oin center will be fine, too. AS for defense at shortstop-EDgar was a great hitter and a competent shortstop. He was no longer defensively elite. Escobar has considerably more range than Edgar and has a rifle arm-almost on par with Furcal’s. Don’t worry for us-we will be fine. Let us not forget we have Tex for an entire season as well. Our bench is considerably better than last year’s too. We ‘re better, the Mets aren’t. Them’s the facts, Dude. Read it and weep. Third place for the Mets. Even Santana won’t change that fact.

By SNIPER-69

January 11, 2008 9:32 PM | Link to this

Lew, If this is strictly an “IF” kind of argument then we could go on and on all night. Yes, I agree with you there are scenarios that would be bad for a Met fan but there are good one’s too. I’m a Met fan so obviously I’m gonna look at the bright side of things. You’re a braves fan and will do the same for your team….that’s cool. I just don’t think the Mets will go quietley into the night and serve up the division to your braves….We’ll just have to wait and see. I do like your passion for your team.

By brian

January 11, 2008 9:52 PM | Link to this

Thorman or Prado I am fine with dealing for Kotsay assuming the A’s pick up some of the contract.

I would not be a big fan of trading away a significant prospect or young player such as KJ.

The key to that trade is what we have to give up. If not a significant prospect it will be a good trade because of reasons mentioned above.

By Braveheart

January 11, 2008 10:03 PM | Link to this

Dude, I keep hearing about all this cash the Mets have to sign whomever they need since they have no farm system.

The truth about the Mets is they don’t have a legit farm system and the Wilpons don’t want to pay luxury taxes. So, they will never get Johan because they don’t have the prospects and, even if they did, the owner does not want to pay Johan $20 million and then the luxury tax money on top of that. Keep dreaming Mets fans. The Twinkies are just playing with you so they can get what they want from the Yankees. Minaya and the Wilpons are just toying with ya so they can pretend they tried.

By SNIPER-69

January 11, 2008 10:04 PM | Link to this

I have just one question for you LEW. This time last year did you predict the braves would finish 3rd?? I’m sure you put out all the worst case scenarios for the Mets. BE HONEST. And they still finished the year with a better record than you thought they would. Who’s to say that all your gloom and doom won’t befall the Mets and they go on to have a 3rd straight year of baseball that surpasses your predictions.

By BabyGoatEater

January 11, 2008 10:15 PM | Link to this

I like this trade for Prado. Not for Thorman or Devine. Some of you will disagree, but I think Prado “is what he is” in terms of talent. He’s a slightly above average player at most aspects of the game. I just think Thorman or Devine could be a special player one day. Thorman has raw power. If he could learn to hit off-speed stuff a little better, he might hit 30-40 homers one day. Devine might turn into a very good setup man, or possibly a closer one day very soon. (We all know what they cost to sign these days) I just don;t see Prado very being a great player. Kotsay is a pretty good center feilder. He’s a little old and his back has been through the gauntlet. A one year rental is probably worth Prafo and $4 Mill. I dont think he’s worth Devine or Thorman and his whole contract.

By Braveheart

January 11, 2008 10:26 PM | Link to this

Kotsay hitting second makes alot of sense. Hitting in front of Chipper and Tex will give him alot of good pitches to hit. This could make him better than he really is because pitchers have to be more aggressive with him. Kotsay probably will not be as strong of a hitter deeper down in the order with less protection.

I was kinda worried about KJ hitting second in front of Chipper and Tex. KJ’s immense patience might have worked against him hitting second because pitchers would have been so much more aggressive with Tex and Chipper coming up next.

KJ might be one of those guys who might do better with less protection while he is hitting seventh. If pitchers are more likely to pitch around him, he will just take the walk. And if KJ is hitting seventh, this will provide more protection for Frenchy and McCann. Frenchy and McCann deserve and need more protection since they are not that patient and pitchers can take advantage of that. PLUS, KJ has outstanding numbers with men on base and with RISP which would make the lineup deep with people who can drive in runs and extend rallies whereas Kotsay is less likely to be able to drive in a run as KJ would deeper down the order. But Kotsay will be able to get on base enough at the top of the order to make the harm of dropping KJ down the order not that bad.

Of course, you could say KJ hitting fifth makes alot of sense too since he does so well with men on and with RISP. Batting fifth would also benefit Frenchy and McCann to have yet another good OBP guy like KJ hitting in front of them since McCann and Frenchy are both much better hitters with men on base and with RISP. Frenchy and McCann are probably better hitters with men on because when runners are on base and especially in scoring position, the runners on and in scoring position are providing them the protection the hitters behind them don’t provide. They get to see better pitches they can drive.

But I think the lineup would be better with KJ at seventh so that he can protect Frenchy and McCann who are not patient enough and more likely to suffer from pitchers pitching around them. If another legit hitter like KJ, who is more difficult for pitchers to battle than Frenchy and Mccann, is behind the two of them, Frenchy and McCann are more likely to get really good pitches to knock around the park.

With that being said, I still think KJ would be good up at the top of the order like he was as a leadoff man last season but the lineup overall might be better with Kotsay second and KJ fifth or seventh.

Maybe I’m reading too much into it. No, I know I am. But it’s fun to think about anyway.

By Mike S

January 11, 2008 10:31 PM | Link to this

BabyGoatEater, I agree with that sentiment wholeheartedly. I’m hoping it’s Prado over Thorman or Devine…

By Mac

January 11, 2008 10:33 PM | Link to this

Why would the A’s, who already have Dan Johnson (basically a better version of Thorman, not that that’s all that hot) and Daric Barton want Thorman? Why would anyone want Prado, who is no different than say, Nick Green? Give me a break.

By N8snake

January 11, 2008 10:57 PM | Link to this

Uh-oh.

Here I go again.

By Zac

January 11, 2008 10:58 PM | Link to this

The best part about Kotsay coming over? His wife. Just google “Jamie Kotsay” and you’ll see what I’m talking about.

By Lew

January 11, 2008 11:08 PM | Link to this

Sniper-I fail to see that last year makes any difference right now, any more than your 86 World Series win. Of course I thought the Braves would do better last year at this time, but that was also before we lost two pitchers in Spring Training and Gonzalez by mid season. That was before Mike Redman. At this time last year did you think the Mets would have the worst collapse in modern baseball history?

Like I said-the Braves have gotten better. They now have pitching depth they didn’t have last year. Also, I’m still not counting on Hampton or Gonzalez coming back and we still have depth.

Yes, there are scenarios where the Mets COULD win. There are also probably scenarios where the Nationals could pull it off too, but I’m betting that won’t happen.

I’m also betting that your scenario of Pedro coming back to pitch 175+ innings with 13 wins won’t happen. Or Moises playing a full season. Or El Duque. Or DelGado. Why? Because they haven’t for several years now. Sanchez and Pedro have missed more than an entire season. To expect them to contribute in the manner you think they will is just absurd-Could we interest you in MIke Hampton?

You have no pitching depth. Or depth at first. Or the bullpen. You do, however, have four second basemen on your roster. This is good, because Castillo and Gotay have injury problems too.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves In 2008))

January 11, 2008 11:10 PM | Link to this

Well , I just assumed that a mid level prospect meant a minor leaguer. Of which the Braves will trade for Mark Kotsay.

Maybe a pitcher , rather than a position player ? We shall see.

By Overlord

January 11, 2008 11:43 PM | Link to this

Where did everybody go???

By TheBigDawg

January 11, 2008 11:45 PM | Link to this

MLB.com is reporting “the A’s … would send Kotsay, 32, and cash to Atlanta for at least one high- to mid-level prospect…” RotoWorld.com is speculating “that means they’d be giving up a pretty good prospect in return. Jordan Schaefer and Brent Lillibridge should be off limits. Perhaps the A’s are looking to gamble on Eric Campbell’s power potential. Reliever Joey Devine might be another possibility.” DOB, please tell me the Braves wouldn’t be paying that much for damaged goods.

By N8snake

January 11, 2008 11:51 PM | Link to this

Overlord

“Where did everybody go???”

No doubt. It’s like the still of the night around here.

:-)

By car3boogie

January 12, 2008 12:18 AM | Link to this

DOB Will you be at fan fest and if so bring me a BBQ sandwich…. I was told Fat Mats was a good rib joint down town. If so will my GPS find it.

By car3boogie

January 12, 2008 12:24 AM | Link to this

Oh and BTW the Kotsay deal Get it done..can not see a better deal out there more perfect for the Braves Situation.

By uga-brave

January 12, 2008 12:27 AM | Link to this

n8,

just got back from chops and have been catching up. if we dont give up a pitcher for kotsay the trade is really, the more i think about it, a cant lose situation. it is a one year rental.

if he plays well score one for the home team if he goes the way of rico bronga or mondesi no sweat off our back.

now if we give up someone like devine, who had flashes late in the year it is stupid. the money part should not concern us. the talent part should.

i really believe devine has a future.

seems like if healthy kotsay would be a great defensive cf. he does have a cannon of an arm and he is, from what i have read a get yourself dirty kind of cox player.

no harm in this trade as long as we dont give up any real pitching talent.

now a couple of people have said if we could somehow get blanton in this deal it would be great.

agreed, if hampton is healthy, why not send chuck and duck, gorkys, and prado for kotsay and blanton.

on the a’s side i saw that dan myers , remember him the guy we sent for hudson is finally starting to pitch better. he had a very good year in the minors for the a’s.

smoltz, hudson, glavine, blanton, hampton. kind of dreaming but that would be a fun rotation to watch.

By DAP

January 12, 2008 12:35 AM | Link to this

MET MAN can you tell me which one of the mets bench players will have better stats than a braves regular? that was a stupid thing to say, and i cant wait to read what stupid thing you say in response.

By uga-brave

January 12, 2008 12:53 AM | Link to this

the latest issue of the sporting news ranks all of the starting rotations.

the bad, they rank the braves as the 8th best in the n.l. the good they rank the mets and phillies behind us.

no argument with the d’backs and padres being 1 and 2.

By DAP

January 12, 2008 12:59 AM | Link to this

braveheart Maybe I’m reading too much into it. No, I know I am. But it’s fun to think about anyway.

ha! dude, you just put johnson at about every spot in the order! that was funny to me.

i like the kotsay trade, if it goes through. he’s a very similar player to randy winn, who i targeted at the beginning of the of season as a guy i thought would be great. if his back is good, then were in good shape.

By Coach (Lets Go Braves In 2008))

January 12, 2008 1:43 AM | Link to this

The A’s are rebuilding and this proposed trade with the Braves is part of it. They traded Dan Haren , then Nick Swisher and now Mark Kotsay. Soon to be next is Joe Blanton and probably Eric Chavez too.

My take on this trade is this. It’s a contract dump. The A’s will save three or four million , gain a minor leaguer in return , open a spot on the 40 man and divest themselves of a player who’s career has been hobbled by an ongoing back injury.

The Braves are taking a minor risk on a player who when healthy can be a very solid defensive CF with a decent offensive game. If Kotsay is productive , it’s 3 or 4 million well spent. If not , they still have Josh Anderson , Gregor Blanco and Jordan Schafer to fall back on.

I’m sure Coco Crisp was on the Braves radar. But , the whole Johan Santana fiasco continues to hold up progress on a number of trade proposals for the Red Sox.

With Mark Kotsay being a player that Frank Wren is familiar with , he decided to forge ahead and fill another piece of the Braves 2008 roster puzzle.

The Braves have just one more need , another hard throwing lefty in the bullpen. Two names to consider : Jimmy Gobble in Kansas City and Jose Mijares in Minnesota.

By uga-brave

January 12, 2008 2:09 AM | Link to this

coach,

if the braves are responsible for $ 4 million of kotsay’s contract and they give up, say devine it is a bad deal. now if they give a type B prospect i dont care what it costs them in the wallet.

as far as lefty’s in the bullpen, i think they are done. ohman and maybe ring will be on the opening day 25.

though i dont think you will see gonzo back before the all-star break.

By uga-brave

January 12, 2008 2:32 AM | Link to this

lew,

i know you are the defender of the faith when warding off the mets trolls, and i miss bobby valentine too. there was never anything better then beating the mets and watching bobby v’s face.

that being said, while their farm system might be bare, they still have a everyday good 8.

now if they dont get santana, or bedard, they are fried. but that infield is pretty darn good and i think church and schneider are both upgrades.

without the above said starters i think it is between us and the phillies.

oh by the way, you said the phils did not replace rowand, i think victorino is gonna play center. he will probably hit in the two hole.

they may get 90 sb’s between rollins and victorino next year.

i sure hope mccann laid off the twinkies and yohoos in the off season.

By uga-brave

January 12, 2008 2:41 AM | Link to this

well about the nfl playoffs all home teams win but only the pats and packers cover.

braveheart, i would love to see the giants derail tony, jessica, and jerry but it is a tall task. that week off is a big deal.

By Desperado Dave

January 12, 2008 3:11 AM | Link to this

I like the idea of landing Mark Kotsay. I think he does so much for the clubhouse in addition to being a solid centerfielder. He will swing the bat well in Atlanta and be a sound stop gap to JS.

By Ray

January 12, 2008 3:41 AM | Link to this

Right-handed closer Joey Devine, a former first-round draft pick of the Braves, is the A’s most likely target, according to an industry source.

For several weeks, there had been speculation about Kotsay going to the Braves, who lost center fielder Andruw Jones to free agency this winter, and Kotsay isn’t opposed to the idea.

“There’s nothing official,” Kotsay emphasized. “But there is a possibility. And I’ve always liked to play against Bobby Cox, I have a lot of respect for him as a manager. He’s got a competitive club day in and day out. If I’m going to be traded, Atlanta is a good situation.”

The A’s would be willing to pick up a portion of the $7 million Kotsay will make this year, but a Braves source said that the amount is still under discussion. There also remains a chance that Atlanta will wait to see if Kotsay, who is coming off surgery to repair a herniated disk in his lower back, is fully healthy after playing some exhibition games, and then resume talks. Medical information has not exchanged hands, according to one source. http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2008/01/12/SPNHUE2E6.DTL

By Wayne in Utah (ever lurking in the blog shadows!)

January 12, 2008 3:52 AM | Link to this

After seeing a pix of Jamie Kotsay, if the Braves can get the Kotsay’s to move to the greater Atlanta area (she would be in the stands for 81 games), then I would probably trade Lillibridge AND Schafer for him. No need in the A’s sending any extra cash in the deal if they physically relo to ATL.

Sounds like a fair trade, huh?

By TennesseePaul

January 12, 2008 3:55 AM | Link to this

Saw There will be blood. It has absolutely nothing on No Country for Old Men. Daniel Day was good. But he typically is. That wasn’t enough to top No Country though.

By nOLIE

January 12, 2008 4:43 AM | Link to this

Saw There will be blood. It has absolutely nothing on No Country for Old Men. Daniel Day was good. But he typically is. That wasn’t enough to top No Country thoughTP

Interesting. I thought it was a better movie than No Country, but they are both very good

By doc

January 12, 2008 7:37 AM | Link to this

ok mcfann, i heard it from the horses mouth on 790 your boy mccann that he is to be at fan-fest between 10:30 and 1:30 today. he also was talking about how good marriage has been for his weight and he is in great shape having worked out with derosa and his trainer this summer. he agrees his late night jaunts for fast food has been a detriment to his game come august and september.

tell us what you see and take drool towel with you. heh heh

By nOLIE

January 12, 2008 8:18 AM | Link to this

I would be pretty happy with Kotsay , though like many have said I hope they don’t give up too much. A Thorson or Prado level prospect(Thorson will never amount to anything IMO), I’d prefer not Devine. Kotsay has had 5 years of pretty decent OBP but also 5 years or so of pretty poor OBP including the last two season b4 he got hurt last year so I’m not sure he’s the guy to bat second though if they get him I guess Bobby will give him a try there. If he can get on base fine, if not I hope he doesn’t keep running him out there in that spot but drops him to 8th. course we all know that Bobby is pretty stubborn that way, so….

By rich brave

January 12, 2008 8:22 AM | Link to this

O’B - wan:

Kudos for your unembellished article on Kotsay. It was refreshing to read a piece of sports information that wasn’t a “news-bite” from USA Today or some equally putrid article. The details like ” …on an eliptical-machine…” made me feel I really was face-to-face with some sports journalism. Kids who have never read good writers probably felt the information un-necessary, but grizzled readers of 50+ years really appreciate your style- at least, one does. Thanks.

By Braveheart

January 12, 2008 9:24 AM | Link to this

DAP That was funny. But that’s really how useful KJ is as a hitter. He could hit almost anywhere in the lineup and do a good job and make the hitters around him better. Thankfully, we don’t need him to bat third or fourth next season.

Ugabrave Let’s go Giants! I don’t know why the media is giving Romo such a hard time over Jessica Simpson. Sounds like the little green eyed monster is rearing its ugly head. The dude does have really cheesy taste in singers though. But at least he picks ‘em pretty. Not as pretty as Kotsay picks ‘em.

By David O'Brien

January 12, 2008 9:49 AM | Link to this

Good thing they moved FanFest indoors this year. Would’ve been a bit chilly out at the ballpark today.

I’m headed out there in an hour. If any of you see me (or recognize me), say hello….

Rich Brave: Thanks….

TennPaul, Nolie: Interesting, your takes on There Will Be Blood. I’ve heard and seen almost exclusively “A” reviews from dozens of critics, though Roger Ebert gave it a B+ in the review we ran in the AJC. I’m gonna see it in the next couple days, along with Savages and that movie with “Ringing Bell” in the long title.

Finally saw 3:10 to Yuma on DVD — tremendous movie. One of my top 10 for the year, for sure. Another great Russell Crowe part, and also great acting from Christian Bale….

Oh, and Glad to see Rolling Stone gave the new Truckers CD four stars, with a comment about how they cranked up their Skynyrd side a lot on this one. Like I said when my man Don gave me an advance copy last month, it’s one of their best 3-4 CDs, in my opinion. Up there with Decoration Day and Dirty South. It comes out next week.

By TommyP

January 12, 2008 9:51 AM | Link to this

DOB: First off, we all sure appreciate the baseball talk throughout the offseason. You have Barnhart over there with the college football forum taking months off until it cranks up again which sux.

You replied to someone, “Are you friggin’ kidding me?” Man…that’s my reply to a statement you made earlier.

You actually think it is remotely possible that Bobby Cox would be alright with bringing in a lefty CF (Patterson) to platoon with a rookie lefty CF???? Are you friggin’ kidding me?

Keep your splits….I mean, c’mon. That was a ridiculous statement.

As far as talk of putting Kotsay in the #2 hole, I just don’t get not putting Escobar #1 and Kelly #2 and just leaving them alone. We’re talking two guys that might very well be with us for several years getting experience in the same slot in the batting order every day, year after year.

I mean the whole “#2 hitter should be a guy that doesn’t strike out, handles the bat well, shoots it through the hole on the right side of the infield” logic only holds water at the beginning of the game if your leadoff hitter gets on. That’s it.

Do you want Kelly Johnson getting more at bats from the #2 hole or Mark Kotsay over the course of a game/season?

That should be an easy answer.

By David O'Brien

January 12, 2008 10:08 AM | Link to this

TommyP, I like either Kotsay (if fully healthy, or course) or Kelly in the No. 2 slot, or Escobar or Kelly in the leadoff spot. But not Escobar in the No. 2 hole; don’t want him to have to think much about moving guys over, etc. Just lash balls everywhere, like he did last year most of the time he was in there.

As for the Patterson comment: That’s why I don’t often just throw stuff out there, just mixing idle thoughts and talking about creative but unlikely options — because if I do, there’s always someone playing gotcha and bringing it up for days afterward. Just a from-the-hip comment, TommyP. And no, I don’t think Bobby would do that. Certainly not Bobby, who does his platoons “by the book,” lefty-righty, regardless of stats.

You wonder why Barnhart might not want to exchange thoughts online in his offseason, after your dissection of that comment from days ago?

By David O'Brien

January 12, 2008 10:13 AM | Link to this

BigDawg, Braves are gonna have to give up a prospect of some kind to get Kotsay and to get the A’s to eat a big part of his contract. But it almost certainly won’t be a high-level guy, and by that I mean a top-10 type guy.

It could be Devine, though I know Braves are a little reluctant to give him up.

By Jared

January 12, 2008 10:15 AM | Link to this

Mark Kotsay and cash for….

Good trade: Martin Prado, Scott Thorman, Eric Campbell, etc.

Neutral trade: Kala Ka’aihue

Bad trade: Jordan Schafer, Brent Lillibridge, Joey Devine or Brandon Jones

By David O'Brien

January 12, 2008 10:20 AM | Link to this

Here’s an unsolicited e-mail that I just got from “Jeff in Sacramento” (no last name given; I wouldn’t put it here even if it were, but none was given. I’m adding the quote marks around his e-mail, which is here in full:

“I am an A’s fan that lives in the Sacramento area. Kotsay is a superior defensive outfielder who looks and plays a lot like Jim Edmonds. He’s a total pro in the clubhouse. He hits lefthanders well. Obviously, you can’t overplay him. If he wasn’t coming off an injury the Braves could never touch him for what they’ll end up paying now. It will be a good deal for Atlanta and it will be good for the A’s. The A’s lineup is too left-handed and they’re going real young anyways. Good luck.”

By David O'Brien

January 12, 2008 10:29 AM | Link to this

By the way, Buster’s lead to his ESPN baseball blog today offers a solid argument for those who believe adjusted OPS isn’t quite the defining statistic some make it out to be (he gives a lot of examples to support his opinion, with which I agree).

By Overlord

January 12, 2008 11:24 AM | Link to this

DOB, im not sure if i did understand you well. Did you say you dont like Yunel batting 2nd? If thats the case, i would have to say that as i see it, thats te best spot for yunel. He is so much like renteria, so many weapons in his bat, that is hard to defend against him and even more if your leadoff man is standing on 1st or 2nd base.

By David O'Brien

January 12, 2008 11:28 AM | Link to this

Car3boogie: I’d strongly recommend you try Daddy D’z BBQ and Blues on Memorial Drive, which is closer to downtown than Matt’s. Actually, D’z is downtown, or about a quarter mile or so from the skyscrapers. Outstanding BBQ. Get the ribs or pulled pork, and the cornbread is the finest.

By rich brave

January 12, 2008 12:22 PM | Link to this

Dave:

Trading Devine would be a mistake in my opinion. Like you, I don’t think the Braves are seriously considering any such thing - and certainly not for a temporary fix in CF. That’s just Looney-Tunes. What I caught here in Richmond with my own eyes was excellent. If the kid ever puts that horrific start in the majors behind him and truely believes he has the stuff which prompted those early Atlanta hopes in the first place, he’ll be a major asset in the pen. Physically he’s got it all. Mental is what’s needed. Didn’t John Smoltz have a shrink observe him in the early going and work on his approach to the game? Maybe that’s what’s needed here. If already being done - then great.

By ray

January 12, 2008 12:25 PM | Link to this

so any updates on the trade? is it basically done, just checking out kotsay’s medical reports and how much the A’s are paying?

i have a feeling its devine or a couple lower level hitters like diorys/campbell/flowers/johnson

A’s have no use for prado/thorman, no need for more 1b/2b

DOB, devine for kotsay/4-5mill sound right? could the deal be expanded to include embree/calero?

By Coach (Lets Go Braves in 2008)

January 12, 2008 12:34 PM | Link to this

If the player to be traded for Kotsay isn’t on the 40 man , who will get the axe ? Then again , Joey Devine might be the man that Billy Beane is after.

I agree , adjusted OPS reads like Greek. OPS works just fine for me , it spreads the numbers out better.

Why do you guys keep bringing Scott Thorman up in the trade discussion , the A’s already have Dan Johnson and Daric Barton. It makes no sense for the A’s to acquire a third left handed hitting young 1st sacker.

By cricket

January 12, 2008 1:03 PM | Link to this

Here’s my take on the kotsay deal. The As do want to dump salary and the braves are not absolutely desperate to get Kotsay, though they would like to have him. I don’t see As being able to push for high level prospect for 2 reasons- 1. As braves don’t absolutely have to have Kotsay, if they pull out, which other team is going to step in to do this deal? The market for Kotsay is not exactly causing the teams to engage in bidding war. 2. If they don’t trade him, they will be stuck with his 8 mil. salary this year and will get nothing in return at the end of the season. If they deal him for a mid level guy, they will save around 4 mil. and will get a decent player in return. Considering this, I think braves can get this deal done without giving up too much.

By TexasBrave

January 12, 2008 1:46 PM | Link to this

rich brave I agree with you that Joey has improved and proved himself since the playoff blow up.

The problem is that Bobby has used him sparingly thus putting a strain on the rest of the pen. Joey is ready, Bobby just doesn’t have the confidence in him that the rest of us and the Braves organization have.

However, with that said this could be Bobby’s last season, Joey still has options, so keep him down one more year and let the next skipper use his talents.

By JEB

January 12, 2008 2:01 PM | Link to this

Joey Devine would DEFINETLY Not be in my trade picture!! Devine is going to be awesome! What happened to Joey Devine was a mistake by Bobby Cox! (I do have to say one of his very few BAD decisions) Joey Devine came in and pitched his first game against San Diego. He pitched great and it was 3 up 3 down in a hurry. At that point Bobby should have pulled him and let him go out with a confidence builder! Instead he sent him back out there for another inning and he started the inning off great. But, he got into some trouble, at that time Bobby should have pulled him (it would have helped him) instead he waited until the trouble turned into a grand slam and a loss. The same happened to him his second time out, and the same happened in Houston in the playoffs. His confidence was wounded by pressing him a little too far, a little too fast. He had just got out of college ball that June, and there he was pitching against major league hitters. It wounded him. Devine for Kotsay - No Way!! I agree with Cricket - not reason to HAVE to do this!

By Wayne in Utah (Devine is truly Devine!)

January 12, 2008 2:09 PM | Link to this

I would rather start the season with someone like Anderson, Blanco or Patterson than give up Joey D.

By McFann

January 12, 2008 2:15 PM | Link to this

doc

I like what I read from ya. (Wish I coulda heard that…) Unfortunately, our weekend schedule’s pretty jam-packed, and we woulda had to pay for four adults and one child to attend. Sure stinks bein’ over 12 sometimes…

By mo in the boonies

January 12, 2008 2:22 PM | Link to this

Wayne in Utah uh…would that be stipulated in Kotsay’s contract that the missus would be in the stands for all those games??

Personally I have never seen the camera pick out any of the wives of the braves during the games or the announcers ever comment on them. And I wonder, do any ballplayers ever marry brunettes? And does that signify anything…such as dumb blondes?

Another question: do the ball players charge to sign their autographs at the fan fest like many do other times? Not that I would ever be at fan fest, too far away. But I’m thinking about all those kids wanting autographs.

DOB thanks for posting the fan’s comment from Sacramento, about kotsay, helps to hear what a team’s fan thinks about a player. And thanks for being “brave” enough to make your email available to fans.

By nOLIE

January 12, 2008 2:39 PM | Link to this

Like Buster says…there is no perfect stat… and there never will be. And I also am aware that many of the highest rated players are in the last 15 years. Part of the reason for that is that since BillyBall caught on there is more of an emphasis on walks up and down the lineup then there used to be. I mean look at some of THE OBP of guys who used to considered good leadoff hitters like Aparicio and many others. So I agree that it is of limited use in comparing baseball eras. But if you want one very useful stat to judge hitters within the same era it is a darn good one. Plain OPS is easier for the average guy to figure and it is good too, but OPS+ does take into account park considerations and gives an easy to understand ranking against each othe