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December 2007
Big Three untainted, still plugging away
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Though the timing was purely coincidental, Baseball America couldn’t have picked a more appropriate winter to present a lifetime achievement award to Atlanta’s longtime Big Three: Greg Maddux, Tom Glavine and John Smoltz.
With the latter part of Roger Clemens’ storied career now under suspicion due to Mitchell Report allegations that he used performance-enhancing drugs, the Rocket could soon — if it’s not already happened — be replaced by Maddux as the general consensus pick for best pitcher of the past 25 years.
Maddux, 41, needs only eight wins to pass Clemens’ 354. And as Peter Gammons noted last week, since Maddux made his big league debut in 1986 he actually has notched 39 more wins than Clemens in that period. Since Glavine debuted the following summer, the once-and-again Braves lefty has 303 wins to Clemens’ 302.
By most measures, including wins and durability — not to mention squeezing every ounce possible out of one’s talent — Glavine isn’t far behind Maddux.
And then there is Smoltz, the bearded Braves icon, and a different case than Maddux and Glavine in that he lost out on perhaps 50 wins during three-plus seasons as an elite closer, a role he first took out of necessity (elbow problems) and then remained in at the request of his team.
Different from the pitching-savant genius and creativity of Maddux and craftiness of Glavine, Smoltz was a pure power pitcher most of his career, which he believes gave him the short shrift when some of us observers judged the merits of the pitchers.
While that’s open for debate — many baseball writers I know consider Smoltz’s career to be on a par with Glavine’s, or at least close to it, because of Smoltz’s unique combination of wins, saves and postseason excellence — what’s almost certain is that his max-effort pitching caused Smoltz to break down a few times while his buddies Maddux and Glavine have made start after start, year after year after year.
(By the way, how ‘bout the fact that all three of them are over 40 and still being very much counted on in the rotations of playoff-hopeful teams, Maddux with San Diego and the other two with the Braves? Pretty remarkable, really.)
Smoltz has overcome four elbow surgeries and made numerous adjustments both in-season (who can forget his throwing sidearm, or resorting to knuckleballs because of throbbing elbow pain?) and between seasons, adjustments he believed he needed to make to remain a legitimate ace. Whatever he’s done, it’s worked. The man knows his body, abilities and limits about as well as any athlete I’ve ever been around.
How many of us seriously believed that Smoltz would still be a No. 1-caliber pitcher at this stage? How many really believed that his elbow would hold up after he successfully lobbied for the Braves to let him return to his beloved starting role before the 2005 season? (My own hand is not raised.)
Yet, here he is. With only one DL stint and no surgeries since he moved back to the rotation (although plenty of aches and pains, some that you know about and others he’s kept to himself and team trainers).
It’s been a difficult couple of years for Smoltz, both on the field and off it (a divorce from wife Dyan after 16 years of marriage and four children). Between nagging injuries and a staggering lack of run support, he nevertheless compiled a 30-17 record and 3.31 ERA in 437-2/3 innings during the 2006-07 seasons, with 408 strikeouts and 102 walks in that span.
Smoltz is a fiend for statistics, so he knows how many more wins he could’ve had if the Braves had scored just two runs in this game, or one more run in that game, or if the bullpen had held a lead in this one. Doesn’t complain about it, but he knows.
Yes, a lot of pitchers could say the same thing, but statistically there’s no denying Smoltz had tougher luck than most pitchers during 2006-07.
Which brings me to my point, which is tied to the recent arrival of the Bill James Handbook 2008, and further evidence of Smoltz’s ongoing performance (yes, a rambling intro and a point you had to find, not the way they teach it in j-school, but it’s a blog and I’m working quickly here).
I was thumbing through the pages of the new handbook when I got to a section I always enjoy, where James projects hitting and pitching statistics for virtually every player in the majors for the upcoming season.
It’s done, I assume, by running reams of recent statistics for each player through a computer program, which takes into account factors including run support and spits out the results each player could be expected to produce. (I’m assuming this; it probably says clearly how it’s done in the intro to the section, which I skipped.)
Folks, I had to go over the wins column in the individual pitching projections twice to make sure I wasn’t missing someone, and I’ll probably go over it twice more when I get home tonight to check twice more (I’m on a one-day trip to Arizona, in the air as I type this, and will file it at the Phoenix airport).
The reason I checked and double-checked? Because the projected wins total for Smoltz: 17. No other pitcher in the majors was projected to win more than 16. Not Johan Santana, Jake Peavy, Brandon Webb or Dan Haren. No one but The Beard. All others projected to win 16 or fewer (hey, I’m just the messenger).
Again, whether you put much stock in the projections or not (more are usually fairly accurate than not), I think that 17-win projection says plenty for how good/steady Smoltz has been in recent years, that you could pump his stats into a computer program that would tell you Smoltz should win more games in 2008 than any other pitcher in the majors, if he just keeps doing what he’s been doing.
Do I necessarily believe it? No, because the computer hasn’t talked to Smoltz recently, and hasn’t heard him admit that he’s not the same beast he was. He’s slowing down a bit, and sounds as if he’s preparing us for the possibility of him missing a start or two in 2008.
Nevertheless, it’s worth noting what the computer projection says, because it’s a reflection of recent performance by the old man who keeps defying skeptics, those who say each year, “He’s going to break down sooner or later, he can’t keep doing this forever….”
He was 30-17 with a 3.31 ERA in 437-2/3 innings the past two years, with 50 quality starts in 67 games. Yes, fifty quality starts (six innings or more, three earned runs or fewer). At his age, a decade or more older than most aces.
Santana was 34-19 with a 3.04 ERA in 452-2/3 innings over the past two seasons, and 45 quality starts in 67 games.
Peavy? He was 30-20 with a 3.28 ERA in 425-2/3 innings, with 50 quality starts in 66 games. Haren? He was 29-22 with a 3.59 ERA in 445-2/3 innings.
Brandon Webb was 34-18 with a 3.06 ERA in 471-1/3 innings. He’s the innings-eating horse Smoltz used to be, or getting there.
Peavy, Haren and Webb are the young lions, just coming into their primes. Smoltz is winding down a great career, one that will almost certainly land him in the Hall of Fame along with certainties Maddux and Glavine.
But with a little help from the back of the rotation, and a little more run support, and a little more fun pitching and playing golf with his buddy Glavine, who knows? Smoltz has an option for 2009 that vests with 200 innings, and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him last until 2010, perhaps longer.
But for now, Smoltz has at least one expert projecting he’ll win 17 games at age 41. And if we’ve learned anything about Smoltz through the years, it’s to never underestimate him. So I’m not.
After all, he did record a hole-in-one on a course in Las Vegas this winter. On a hole that Smoltz claims not even his friend Tiger Woods has aced.
And he seems more optimistic than he’s been the past couple of winters about the Braves and their pitching staff (though he and most Braves would feel a lot better about the franchise’s future if they’d sign Mark Teixeira and Jeff Francoeur to contract extensions).
In recent seasons Smoltz has added pitches to his repertoire, resigned himself to throwing at less than max-effort on most pitches, and been honest with himself enough to concede he could no longer hoist the team on his shoulders and will it to win by staying on the mound eight or nine innings through soreness.
That’s a reason Smoltz is optimistic about the tweaked Braves roster, as he eases into his offseason throwing program with the countdown under 50 days until pitchers and catchers report to spring training. More so than he was last year.
That’s because last year the Braves went to spring training with six starting pitchers. They lost Mike Hampton (again) before he’d even thrown a Grapefruit League pitch. Then they lost spring sensation Lance Cormier before Opening Day.
They signed Mark Redman, literally out of his Oklahoma basement, where the out-of-work Redman was throwing in an underground pitching tunnel to stay sharp until some team called in the spring. He was not sharp. To say the least.
Redman was dumped early in a season that saw the Braves scramble to fill out their rotation, making moves and subbing out pitchers almost on a weekly basis.
By midseason the bullpen was haggard, Chuck James’ elbow was barking, and journeyman Buddy Carlyle was pretty the third-best starter behind co-aces Tim Hudson and Smoltz, representing a precipitous drop in quality from No. 2 to No. 3 for a team that would’ve stood a good chance of making the playoffs if it had had someone, anyone, to provide quality starts behind the top two veterans.
Now the Braves have Glavine back in the fold, a 303-game winner expected not to be an ace, but a very good No. 3 starter.
And they should have several options to choose from to fill out the last two spots in the rotation, including James, Hampton (if healthy), promising rookies Jair Jurrjens (acquired from Detroit in the Edgar Renteria trade and lefty Jo-Jo Reyes, plus Jeff Bennett and Carlyle.
Smoltz likes the depth and particularly the prospects of having someone such as Bennett, a former Milwaukee reliever who pitched well in September starts, to fill what Smoltz envisions as a “sixth starter” role as long reliever/spot starter.
It was Smoltz who confided after an end-of-season game at Philadelphia that he hoped the Braves would consider going with, in effect, a six-man rotation in 2008 in order to permit those who might need to skip a start to do so and preserve their health and energy.
“I’m best suited for the stretch run,” Smoltz said in Nashville during the Winter Meetings, where he went to accept the Baseball America lifetime achievement award.
The old lion is still one of the elite starting pitchers in the National League, but Smoltz wants to be at his best in September and October, and knows he can’t be, at his age, if he has to go hard all season without getting a break if he needs one.
He concedes he can’t pitch 220-230 innings like he used to, or expect to churn out quality starts even if he’s got pain in his shoulder or elbow or wherever.
“If we have for the first time in a long time, the luxury of having a long man …. That is something that’s beneficial, to be able to take a start off. I’m realizing that now. Me and Hampton — Hampton more than anybody, we need to protect.”
Smoltz seems to have more confidence in Hampton giving the Braves something — maybe just 15-20 starts, but good starts — than most others seem to have in Hampton at this point. Many have written off the veteran lefty after Hampton missed the past two seasons for elbow surgeries, then was hurt again (hamstring) in the first inning of his first start this winter in Mexico.
But it’s the other depth, particularly the return of Glavine, that makes Smoltz feel better about this Atlanta rotation’s chances of returning to some semblance of the proud Braves starting pitching of years past, and to be able to take some pressure off a promising bullpen unfairly maligned last season.
“Not to oversell the Glavine addition, but what he gives you is a solid 3-4-5,” he said. “And he gives you a lot of knowledge and advice that I can’t really give those [young lefties]. If they’re smart, they’ll use him and be like a sponge.”
“And I hope it brings about a little more of a ‘unit’ with the rotation. We had something special [with the former Braves rotations]. It makes the days go by faster.”
GILES UPDATE: The venerable Hall-of-Fame scribe from Denver, cowboy Tracy Ringolsby, reports that the Rockies are expected to resume discussions about second baseman Marcus Giles after the holidays. Giles, 29, was a bust with San Diego last season, hitting .229 with four homers and 39 RBI in 119 games and losing his starting job along the way. They non-tendered him this winter, just as the Braves had done a year before. Right now, the Rockies have Jayson Nix and a few others to compete for the job previously held by Kaz Matsui. They’ve also contacted Todd Walker.
OK, we’re landing in Phoenix. And I need to file this soon as I get in the airport.
By the way this song’s not a reference to anyone mentioned in this blog, believe me. Just a great song by a terrific songwriter, a tune I’d already picked out. One a lot of us can surely relate to.
“A MAN IN NEED” by Richard Thompson
I packed my rags, went down the hill
Left my dependents a-lying still
Just as the dawn was rising up
I was making good speed
I left a letter lying on the bed
From a man in need, it read
You know it’s so hard, It’s so hard to find
Well, well, well. Who’s going to cure the heart of a man in need?
All of my friends don’t comprehend me
Their kind of style it just offends me
I want to take ‘em, I want to shake ‘em
‘Till they pay me some heed
Oh, you’ve got to ride in one direction
Until you find the right connection
You know it’s so hard, so, so, so, so
Well, well. Who’s going to cure the heart of a man in need?
Who’s going to give you real happiness?
Who’s going to give you contentedness?
Who’s going to lead you? Who’s going to feed you?
And cut you free?
Well I’ve sailed every ship in the sea
But I travelled this world in misery
You know it’s so hard, so hard, so hard
Well, well. Who’s going to cure the heart of a man in need?
Well who’s going to shoe your feet?
Ah who’s going to pay your rent?
And who’s going to stand by you?
Well, well, well, well
Who’s going to cure the heart of a man in need?
Oh, oh, oh, oh, oh
Of a man in need
Selig step down? Forget about it
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Those of you who really believed (or just hoped) that fallout from the Mitchell Report might bring down Bud Selig, forget about it. As we’ve said all along, the only ones who can fire Bud are baseball owners, and they sing his praises.
Still. In fact, perhaps more than ever.
Since the report placed blame for rampant ‘roid use on just about everyone in baseball, including MLB officials, it seems like owners have been even more openly supportive of Selig than before.
And why not? As we said here last week, when one of our regulars on the blog suggested that Selig and Don Fehr be fired, there’s no way Selig and Fehr get fired when attendance is at an all-time high and teams and players are splitting a bigger financial pie than ever.
And now we’re hearing exactly that. Selig made more than $14 million last year, and baseball owners make it sound like he’s worth every penny of it - steroid scandal be damned.
“He has total support of the ownership — total support,” Chicago White Sox owner Jerry Reinsdorf told the Associated Press.
“He’s a terrific commissioner, and he’s doing the right thing in trying to clean up the sport,” Yankees owner George Steinbrenner told AP, through a spokesman. “I am fully supporting him.”
So unless you folks think Congress is going to step in and somehow try to hold baseball officials and Fehr accountable for the performance-enhancing drug mess — good luck with that one — then it’s probably a waste of time to keep suggesting that Selig must go.
Because he ain’t going anywhere. At least not for a couple more years. That’s when the 73-year-old former Brewers owner and one-time car salesman has indicated he plans to step down as commissioner.
But some owners have expressed hopes of talking him into staying on the job longer.
Money talks, folks. Packed stadiums, wider revenue sharing among teams, and huge revenue increases in broadcasting deals and international marketing have lined baseball’s coffers. A steroid scandal doesn’t seem to have dented the bottom line, at least not yet.
Speaking of obscene cash…. Carlos Silva got even more from Seattle than originally rumored. After posting a 24-29 record and 5.01 ERA during the past two seasons with Minnesota, Silva signed a four-year, $48 million contract with the Mariners.
Yes, $12 mill annually for the next four seasons for a guy with a 55-46 career record and 4.31 ERA, with strikeout totals of 76, 71, 70 and 89 over the past four seasons. He’ll be 29 in April.
For some comparison and to get some idea of how the market price of pitching continues to soar, consider the contract four-year, $48 mill extension that Tim Hudson signed not even three years ago after being traded to the Braves.
Admittedly it was below-market value, but still, just consider the details:
Hudson was 29 when he signed the extension in March 2005, an extension that didn’t even kick in until 2006, after Hudson pitched for just $6.75 mill in 2005 in the final year of the previous contract he’d signed with Oakland.
Silva has only once in four seasons as a starter posted a .500-or-better record with double-digit wins, while Hudson had the second-highest winning percentage among active pitchers (behind Pedro Martinez) when Hudson signed his extension with the Braves, a deal that included a fifth-year club option for 2010.
Hudson had been the winningest pitcher in the AL over the previous five seasons. Silva is 47-45 in four seasons as a starter.
Before the extension, these were Hudson’s previous five seasons with Oakland: 20-6, 4.14 ERA in 2000; 18-9, 3.37 ERA in ‘01; 15-9, 2.98 ERA in ‘02; 16-7, 2.70 ERA in ‘03; 12-6, 3.53 ERA in ‘04. He pitched over 200 innings in four of those five, including seasons of 235, 238 and 240 innings.
By the way, the Twins made a three-year, $18 million offer to Silva, who apparently decided that $30 million for one more year’s work was a more desirable proposal.
Oh, and there’s this: Jarrod Washburn signed a four-year, $37 mill free-agent contract with Seattle two years ago, after going 29-31 in the previous three seasons for the Angels. Washburn is 18-29 with a 4.33 ERA in two seasons for Seattle.
Supply and demand: Many good-not-great starting pitchers and middle relievers are pulling in relatively huge contracts for a simple reason: There are so few of them available, and so many teams in need of their services.
It’s why teams such as Oakland and Baltimore are willing to trade top young starters just entering their prime, because they can get so much in return for a Dan Haren or Erik Bedard that the potential immediate hit to their team’s performance is outweighed by the strength the organization can add at various positions by bringing back multi-player packages of young talent in return.
Yes, I had it confirmed to me that FoxSports.com’s report about the Braves being a late entry into the Haren sweepstakes was correct. The person told me he had only one problem with the story: It said the Braves couldn’t have matched Arizona’s package of six young players it sent to the A’s for Haren.
The Braves could have matched it, they just weren’t willing to give up such a huge chunk of young talent. They were willing to offer a package that included three prospects who were better overall than the first three in the Arizona package (the Diamondbacks gave up their Nos. 1, 3, 7 and 8 prospects, according to Baseball America rankings, along with two decent 24-year-old lefties.
The Braves weren’t going to give up more than three prospects to get Haren, though they do love his talent and his affordable contract over the next few years, just like everyone else does.
The Diamondbacks gave up a pair of advanced, good-hitting outfield prospects, 22-year-old Carlos Gonzalez and 21-year-old Aaron Cunningham, along with 21-year-old lefty Brett Anderson, who had 125 Ks and 25 walks in 120 innings last year in A-ball. Scouts say his “ceiling” is enormous.
A comparable two-outfielder, top-pitcher package from the Braves might have included power-hitting Jason Heyward and one of the two young center fielders, Jordan Schafer and Gorkys Hernandez, plus lefty Cole Rohrbough, who had 96 strikeouts with 20 walks in 61 innings in rookie and A-ball last season.
But then the Braves would’ve needed to come up with three more young players, including at least one more serious prospect. OF Brandon Jones? Or SS Brent Lillibridge, perhaps? Figure on one of those guys, and then come up with two more pitchers, not necessarily top prospects but guys with legit chances to pitch in the majors as soon as this season, like the two 24-year-old lefties at the back of the Arizona deal.
That’s what it would’ve taken, and the Braves could have had Haren. There’s a good chance Haren would win 14-15 games a season, at least, since he’s won 14, 14 and 15 in the past three seasons.
He was 43-34 in that span, with impressive ERAs of 3.58, 3.72 and 3.32 and strikeout totals of 163 in 217 innings, 176 in 223 innings and 192 in 222-2/3 innings. Dude is a stud, no doubt.
But the Braves are counting on at least two from the group of Schafer, Heyward, and B. Jones being long-term lineup regulars for them. They believe Schafer is going to be a star — comparable to Grady Sizemore, and some believe potentially even better than him.
And when you throw in the pitchers they’d have had to give up in the deal, the Braves just didn’t see the sense in mortgaging so much of the future for a young pitcher who - let’s keep things in perspective here - still hasn’t won more than 15 games and will be a free agent after the 2010 season.
Money absolutely was not an object here. The Braves payroll is at about $89-90 million right now, and they could easily have absorbed his very reasonable salaries of $4 million in 2008, $5.5 in 2009, and $6.75 in a 2010 option year.
But then he’d be a free agent and, if he keeps improving, he’ll probably be a $20 mill-a-year pitcher by then. So he’ll be gone to the Yankes or someone else, and the Braves might have gotten 45-55 wins from him in three years and given up a very big chunk of anticipated production from the six or so youngsters they’d have had to give up to get him.
By the way, I haven’t heard if the Braves are involved in the Bedard talks with Baltimore, but I doubt it because the arbitration-eligible lefty will be a free agent after the 2009 season and the Orioles can orchestrate a bidding war for his services and command two or three major-league ready players in return.
Among teams known to have expressed interest in him this winter: Mets, Dodgers, Yankees, Mariners, Reds, Angels.
Bedard, who’ll be 29 in March, was 13-5 with a career-best 2.71 ERA and franchise-record 221 strikeouts in 182 innings in 2007.
Baltimore earlier this winter reportedly rejected the Mets’ offer of 21-year-old outfield prospect Carlos Gomez, reliever Aaron Heilman and another player, rumored to be starting pitcher Philip Humber.
Out of options: Going into spring training, there always seems to be a Braves player or two for whom the minor-league options situation forces the team to either keep him on the 25-man roster or trade him. But this time there could be more than usual.
Among those out of options and not assured a roster spot: relievers Royce Ring and Blaine Boyer, catcher/utility man Brayan Pena, and infielder Willie Aybar.
All of them have enough value to make it likely they would be scooped off waivers by another team if the Braves tried to get them through. So it’s reasonable to expect some or most of them to be traded between now and the end of spring training if the Braves don’t anticipate keeping them on the 25-man.
Cox to be honored: Braves manager Bobby Cox, Hall of Famer Tony Gwynn, Braves chairman emeritus Bill Bartholomay, and former Dodgers scout Ralph Avila are among those who’ll be honored for lifetime achievement by the Professional Baseball Scouts Foundation at its annual gala Jan. 19 at the Hyatt Regency Century Plaza Hotel in Los Angeles.
What’s being billed as the world’s largest baseball memorabilia auction will be held in conjunction with the dinner. The annual charity event helped raise more than $1 million over the past four years to assist baseball scouts in need.
If any of you Braves/Man in Black denizens happen to live or plan to visit L.A. around that time, and want to go to this thing, a limited number of tickets are available for purchase by calling (310) 996-1188.
Just thinking out loud…. Anyone seen the latest Michael Jackson-in-public photo? He has on some kind of cape or hood (nothing unusual for him these days) and also has these pieces of something, looks like tape squares or something like that, all over his face around his lips and nose and cheeks. Can he possibly get any weirder? Seriously, is it possible?
Most teen-agers today only know him as a freak show. Hard to imagine that twenty years ago, he was widely regarded as the greatest entertainer in the world, with massive popularity that transcended musical genres and stretched across races, nationalities and generations.
Speaking of music (but the good kind)…. Without further ado, here are the final 25 CDs on my top 50 favorites of 2007. I’ll list the first 25 below this group, topped by Arcade Fire, which ranked No. 1 for me this season, and also happens to be first alphabetically.
I didn’t rank the rest (Nos. 2-49), and to be honest, a few of these second 25 (including Graham Parker and Lucinda Williams) should’ve been in my first 25, but I sort of forgot they were released this year and not in late-2006.)
One other caveat: I’ve only ranked CDs that I own, not stuff I just heard or read was great. And I’m not on any mailing lists, so I buy everything, just like most of you have to. Also, I’m a dinosaur, so I don’t download albums or singles, I buy the CDs.
And finally, there’s a few that probably belong on here that I simply haven’t bought yet, such as Kanye West, Jay-Z, and LCD Soundsystem. Though I love Rilo Kiley’s older stuff, I heard this year’s release was too slickly produced and not like their other stuff, so I didn’t buy it. Maybe when I find a used copy at Ella Guru, I’ll get it. And I know White Stripes probably belongs on this list, but for whatever reason I haven’t bought it yet. Couple of songs I’ve heard from it annoy me. I like all their earliest stuff much more. Also, I don’t have Panda Bear’s CD, and I’ve seen it on a bunch of lists in hipster magazines and such. But the name sounds silly (then again, so does “Modest Mouse” — this CD wasn’t one of Modest Mouse’s best, by the way).
OK, here goes:
Ryan Adams Easy Tiger
Black Lips Good Bad Not Evil
Steve Earle Washington Street Serenade
Black Francis Blue Finger
Patty Griffin Children Running Through
Albert Hammond Jr. Yours to Keep
Richard Hawley Lady’s Bridge
Levon Helm Dirt Farmer
Joe Henry Civilians
Interpol Our Love to Admire
Iron & Wine Shepherd’s Dog
Sharon Jones & the Dap-Kings 100 Days/100 Nights
Miranda Lambert Crazy Ex-Girlfriend
Ted Leo & The Pharmacists Living with the Living
Modest Mouse We Were Dead Before the Ship Even Sank
Thurston Moore Trees Outside the Academy
Graham Parsons Live at the Avalon Ballroom 1969
Graham Parker Don’t Tell Columbus
Peter Bjorn & John Writer’s Block
Queens of the Stone Age Era Vulgaris
The Swell Season Once soundtrack
Teddy Thompson Upfront and Down Low
Wilco Sky Blue Sky
Lucinda Williams West
Neil Young Chrome Dreams II
And here’s a recap of the first 25 (I’d have put Spoon second, but didn’t rank any of them after No. 1.)
Arcade Fire Neon Bible, Arctic Monkeys Favorite Worst Nightmare, Band of Horses Cease to Begin, Bright Eyes Cassadaga, Dinosaur Jr. Beyond, El-P I’ll Sleep When You’re Dead, Feist The Reminder, Ghostface Killah The Big Doe Rehab.
Grinderman Grinderman, Jason Isbell Sirens in the Ditch, Kings of Leon Because of the Times, Waylon Jennings Nashville Rebel box set, M.I.A. Kala, The National Boxer, Okkervil River The Stage Names, Radiohead In Rainbows, Josh Ritter The Historical Conquests of Josh Ritter, Son Volt The Chase.
Spoon Ga Ga Ga Ga Ga, Bruce Springsteen Magic, James Blood Ulmer Bad Blood in the City, Various artists I’m Not There soundtrack, Dale Watson From the Cradle to the Grave, Amy Winehouse Back to Black, Dwight Yoakam Dwight Sings Buck.
One last thing: Merry Christmas to you folks, and thanks for making it a great year on the blog.
Javy a no-risk signing; best CDs of 2007
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Let me start by saying there is absolutely no truth to a rumor that the Braves were going to bring David Justice out of retirement, but decided after the Mitchell Report came out to instead sign Javy Lopez.
No, but seriously … folks it’s only a minor league contract the Braves gave Lopez, who will need to show during spring training that he can still hit and handle himself behind the plate if he’s going to win the backup catcher job.
It would be one thing if the Braves had given Lopez a major league contract and bumped someone else off the 40-man roster to make room, if they had guaranteed him a million bucks and tried to tell everyone that Lopez is the guy they’ve been looking for.
That wasn’t the case with Monday’s announcement. The Braves merely signed him to a minor league contract, gave him a non-roster invitation to spring training and a contract worth about $750,000 if he makes the team out of spring training.
Sorry, but having a tough time seeing how that can possibly be anything but a no-risk move worth making for the Braves, who just might — repeat, might — get a guy who can still provide some pop off the bench and be an adequate defensive catcher once every five days or so.
If he stinks down at Dark Star, the Braves can simply say “Thanks for trying, but it’s not happening” and send him on his way.
In the meantime, Lopez sure can’t be bad for business. Judging from the fact that the story merely mentioning his return yesterday was the top-rated story on our entire website shortly after it was posted. He’s got that appeal to a certain segment of the fan base, as you probably know.
But if he’s not ready this spring and doesn’t deserve a spot on the roster, I think it’s safe to assume the Braves wouldn’t keep Lopez out of nostalgia or to sell a few tickets. And if they did that, it’d be quite obvious.
So let’s move forward and keep the signing in perspective, what do you say?
Oh, and by the way, someone asked if perhaps this means Bobby Cox would keep three catchers, perhaps Lopez and either rookie Clint Sammons or versatile Brayan Pena. I don’t see that happening. Really don’t.
So is this it? Plenty of denizens have asked if the Braves are done for the winter, and if so what do I think the roster will look like out of spring training.
Since I don’t think they are necessarily done for the winter, I’m gonna wait a bit longer before making any projections about the makeup of the outfield. I still believe they’re open to trading for a center fielder if something comes up this winter or even during spring training, particularly if neither Josh Anderson nor any of the younger candidates looks very promising in spring training. That might raise the urgency level and force the Braves to pull the trigger.
But right now, they don’t feel compelled to take on a bigger salary or multi-year commitment for a CF, so they haven’t. Personally, I’m not too confident with what they’ve got out there, but at worst Anderson would play solid defense and hit perhaps .250-.270 with a decent OBP.
At best, he might bat .300 and cause some havoc on the bases. So we’ll see. I do think the Braves are more than willing to open the season with him in center, rather than pull off a trade they’re not comfortable with.
In left, still looks like a Matt Diaz/Brandon Jones arrangment of some kind, perhaps a straight platoon since the Braves probably aren’t going to have a platoon at any other position. Cox does like his platoons, so this is an obvious place for him to utilize one.
Bullpen almost set: While the Braves continue to pursue another proven arm, most notably keeping up conversations with Colorado about lefty closer/setup man Brian Fuentes, they also feel confident that they could put together a solid ‘pen with what they’ve got.
But with lefty Mike Gonzalez not expected back from Tommy John surgery until around the All-Star break, and perhaps not at full strength until late in the season or in 2009, the Braves would like to add another proven setup guy.
If I had to guess on the ‘pen makeup without another addition, I’d say: closer Rafael Soriano, lefties Will Ohman and Royce Ring, and righties Peter Moylan, Tyler Yates, Manny Acosta, and Blaine Boyer or Joey Devine.
But there are caveats. If Jeff Bennett doesn’t win the fifth-starter job, he could be in the pen and be the spot starter that John Smoltz has said he’d like the team to have at the ready.
The Brave aren’t married to having two lefties, so Ring’s not guaranteed a spot if he comes to spring training doesn’t show anything, or is clearly outpitched by one of several other right-handers the Braves have available such as Phil Stockman or even young fireballer Charlie Morton, a top starting prospect.
And if they were to pull off a trade for Fuentes, bet Ring would be bumped.
Still a lot of time, right up into spring training, which is why I hesitate to even name a ‘pen. I’d not be surprised at all if at least one of those guys I listed in the seven-man ‘pen was traded by the end of spring training.
Ok, without further ado: Here’s my top 25 albums (hey, they’re still albums to me) of 2007, genres be damned. It’d take me all day to try to rank them, so I’m just gonna go No. 1 (Arcade Fire’s Neon Bible was my favorite of the year) and then rank the others in alphabetical order. It just so happens Arcade Fire would also be first alphabetically, too:
FAVORITE ALBUMS of 2007
- Arcade Fire Neon Bible
Nos. 2-25 in alphabetical order:
Arctic Monkeys Favorite Worse Nightmare
Band of Horses Cease to Begin
Bright Eyes Cassadaga
Dinosaur Jr. Beyond
El-P I’ll Sleep When You’re Dead
Feist The Reminder
Ghostface Killah The Big Doe Rehab
Grinderman Grinderman
Jason Isbell Sirens in the Ditch
Kings of Leon Because of the Times
Waylon Jennings Nashville Rebel
M.I.A. Kala
The National Boxer
Okkervil River The Stage Names
Radiohead In Rainbows
Josh Ritter The Historical Conquests of Josh Ritter
Son Volt The Search
Spoon Ga Ga Ga Ga Ga
Bruce Springsteen Magic
James Blood Ulmer Bad Blood in the City
Various artists I’m Not There soundtrack
Dale Watson From the Cradle to the Grave
Amy Winehouse Back to Black
Dwight Yoakam Dwight Sings Buck
If you disagree, as many of you surely will, give us a list of few of yours, or your own top 25.
In the meantime, enjoy music….
”I TAKE A LOT OF PRIDE IN WHAT I AM” by Merle Haggard
Things I learned in hobo jungle
Were things they never taught me in a class room
Like where to find a hand out
While bummin’ through Chicago in the afternoon
Hey I’m not braggin’ or complainin’ I’m just talkin’ to myself man to man
This ol’ mental fat I’m chewin’ didn’t take a lotta doin’
But I take a lot of pride in what I am
I guess I grew up a loner
I don’t remember ever havin’ any folks around
But I keep thumbin’ through the phonebooks
And looking for my daddy’s name in every town
And I meet lots of friendly people but I’ll always wind up leavin’ on the lam
Hey where I’ve been or where I’m goin’ didn’t take a lotta knowin’
But I take a lot of pride in what I am
I never travel in a hurry
Because I got nobody waitin’ for me anywhere
Home is anywhere I’m livin’
If it’s sleepin’ on some vacant bench in City Square
Or if I’m workin’ on some road gang or just livin’ off the fat of our great land
I never been nobody’s idol but at least I got a title
And I take a lot of pride in what I am
I never been nobody’s idol…
I take a lot of pride in what I am
I take a lot of pride in what I am
What a tangled web of deceit
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Ahhhhhhhhh!
My reaction after taking a steroid injection in the buttocks?
No, my thoughts after perusing most of the 400-plus-page, mind-numbing tome that was the Mitchell Report, then reading a few dozen reaction stories and opinion pieces cranked out feverishly in the 24 hours since its release.
So many thoughts, so many obstacles yet to overcome, such a complex issue.
All one needs to do is read the reactions of so many of you on this blog since ol’ George (Mitchell) took the podium to understand how passionate, how angry, how torn and frustrated so many people are about the entire Steroid Era.
(And by the way, how unfortunate if you’re a clean player who happened to be a star in the Steroid Era, as opposed to being a star in the Deadball Era, or some other era. Hey, blame your teammates who chose not to do things the right way. And by the way, a lot of guys must be wishing Radomski accepted debit cards.)
Wouldn’t it be nice just to be able to shake the Players Association and MLB officials and everyone else in the game by their collective lapel and say, “Good God, man, just do the right thing so people can believe what they’re watching is real!”
Oh, but it’s never that simple. Hardly anything ever is that we care about.
Anyway, I’ll climb off the soapbox. I’m just another member of the media, and we’re often held accountable, too, for supposedly turning the other cheek, like trainers and agents and scouts and coaches, managers and club officials, who all had suspicions if not outright knowledge of guys on the juice during the late 1980s, throughout the 1990s, and into this decade.
And don’t think for a moment that many players, perhaps hundreds, aren’t still using HGH, which can’t be detected by urine testing, the only testing used in baseball, because it’s the only testing allowed by the Players Association. Even if they got smart (which they will, eventually) and agreed to blood testing, there’s still not an absolutely reliable blood test for HGH.
(By the way, most of those mentioned in the Mitchell Report were caught or implicated just because they happened to use the dealer who got pinched. If it had been a drug-dealing clubby or strength coach on the West Coast, you can bet the list would have tilted far more toward players from teams out there.)
By the time there is a test for HGH, some evil-genius chemist will have come up with a new undetectable designer drug to help those players determined to find something that will give them the edge. And when that drug is detectable, there will be another.
That’s how it is in the modern, ultra-lucrative world of pro sports. Ego and/or million-dollar salaries will drive highly competitive athletes to do things.
But at least baseball probably will (eventually) take more steps toward doing all it can to alleviate as much of the problem as possible, to stay on the cutting edge as much as it can. In a multi-billion-dollar industry like this, MLB can do far more than it currently does to stay on the cutting edge.
Baseball needs to turn its drug policy and enforcement over to an independent body, preferably the United States Anti-Doping Agency. And baseball needs to hire a full-time anti-doping administrator, who’d working closely with the USADA at all times.
(If you know how many assistants travel in Bud Selig’s entourage, clogging the pressbox hallway while Bud speaks to reporters about Barry Bonds, prohibiting me from getting past with my garlic fries so I can watch blog while watching the sixth inning of the Braves-Giants game right before the All-Star break, you’d know baseball has more than enough money to hire another staffer.)
Of course, MLB can’t do much of anything without the powerful union’s approval. So as much as players say, “We want to clean the sport up,” until their union agrees to more serious, year-round, unannounced urine testing, and until they agree to seriously consider something like - here’s my recommendation — once- or twice-a-year random blood testing, there are always going to be suspicions that any player doing anything extraordinary is doing it with assistance from performance-enhancing drugs.
Sorry, players, but that’s just the way it is.
Oh, and please, MLB officials, but don’t give us that garbage about not knowing there was a serious steroids problem brewing over the past couple decades.
You either knew, or you were too ignorant or disengaged from the sport to have been qualified to hold the positions you held. I mean, come on.
Either you knew, or you must have had no contact with the people in uniform, playing and coaching the game, and the people in the training rooms working on them, the ones treating the dramatic rise in tendon and ligament tears and other such injuries that should have raised red flags.
And yes, we knew. All of us who cover the games knew or had strong suspicions about certain players. But still, I’ve had about enough with the self-flagellation and self-serving indignation expressed by some in the media, admonishing themselves and us all for not writing more about it.
Because you know what? Without evidence, without hard proof, if we wrote stories about specific players we simply suspected were on ‘roids, on hearsay and rather flimsy (at least from a legal perspective) evidence of the kind implicating many in the Mitchell Report, we’d have never gotten those stories in the papers. That’s a lawsuit just waiting to happen.
It wasn’t until a federal investigation opened the BALCO can of worms that evidence of substance got into the right hands, and some very good investigative reporters at the San Francisco Chronicle worked sources and got leaked grand jury testimony and …. Well, the poopstorm began in earnest. Thankfully.
And only after another government investigation led to a former batboy/clubhouse attendant and a former strength coach flipping and turning informants, that the Mitchell investigation led to a scratching of the surface by implicating dozens of other present and past players to ‘roids and HGH.
But again, let me assure you, if reporters tried to publish stories using only the level of “evidence” the Mitchell Report contained in many instances, those stories would never get past editors and into the papers.
For instance, one player saying he heard another talk about using steroids? Beyond the fact that one player isn’t going to say that to a reporter on the record (he’s only going to say it to investigators, to save his butt), we couldn’t write that as a straight news story, naming the supposed “user” (Brian Roberts, in this case) without some proof and without talking to Roberts and getting his side of the story.
That’s how it works in most media outlets. If it wasn’t, we’d be a nation full of sensational tabloids (OK, no cynical comments from the peanut gallery) and an already gratuitous scandal-for-the-sake-of-scandal mentality would be taken to an entirely new level.
Did I ever see guys with back acne (when they were still using oil-based ‘roids) and prematurely thinning hair, and bloated muscles that we all knew weren’t natural? Yes. Of course. We all did.
But you don’t write, “Joe Blow has hit a career-high 35 homers this season, and if fans could see his back acne they’d know why. He’s a juicer, folks. A fraud.” Unless you had proof, not much you could do but ask folks, and if you think anyone was going to give you proof in the circle-the-wagons world of baseball, you probably don’t understand what a tight circle it is.
Until that bottle of andro was left in Big Mac’s locker, or that clubby was pulled over with some bad stuff in the glovebox of the player’s car he was driving … until those kinds of instances, there wasn’t much substantial evidence to write stories implicating specific players.
There wasn’t much more than the seemingly less-than-credible Jose Canseco and the pitiful Ken Caminiti talking about their own ‘roid use and how many others in the game had used.
(Time to admit it, if we haven’t already: Jose knew exactly what he was talking about. Bitter, yes? Blackballed because of controversy he stirred up? No (he was run out of the game because he could no longer play, period). But truthful? It appears so, at least in most instances.)
But getting back to the point (if I can find it again … oh yes, here it is): We all should have written and said more about ‘roid suspicions, at least in general terms that would have been permitted in the papers and on the air (wait, just about anything is permitted these days on the air, isn’t it? So scratch that.)
Hey, let’s be honest: When you’re around the game every day, covering a team and covering games and talking to players on and off the record on a daily basis for nine months a year, it would have taken a lot of stones to be able to say a lot of them were juicing before some unrefutable evidence starting showing up.
And I do know that when some baseball beat reporters tried to help out investigative reporters at their own papers, give them all they knew about ‘roid use and who was suspected of using, it usually led to closed doors and talk of privacy laws and guys refusing to rat on others because they didn’t have anything to gain by doing so (such as immunity or a lighter sentence).
Here’s another thing: Most writers, broadcasters and others got caught up in the home-run explosion that MLB and its fans enjoyed, at least initially, until things started getting completely out of hand, and guys were hitting 60 homers instead of 45, and big, bad Barry crushed records and left in his wake the feel-good moments provided by smilin’ Sammy (he was phony, but sure could smile and say cute things in that accent of his) and Big Mac (he wasn’t very friendly, but seemed like a good ‘ol working man, and at least he didn’t smirk at us like Barry).
In hindsight, you gotta wonder what might have happened if a more likable, less controversial, less cocky, surly fella than Barry had come along and smashed those records. Hmmm. Would there have been so much effort to bring him down, and put him in a situation where he could perjure himself and eventually lead to federal charges (remember, he’s not charged with using ‘roids, but with lying). I don’ know. Just wondering here, just talking off the top of my head.
Come to think of it, baseball might owe a debt of gratitude to Barry for being such an insufferable jerk. Because if he weren’t, think about it: Would we be talking about this today? Would there have even been a Mitchell investigation? Would those fine reporters at the Chronicle have been able to sink their teeth into another such story and blow the lid completely off the Steroid Era?
So, here goes: Thanks, Barry Bonds. For being who you are. Seems like no one wanted to give you a pass like some did with Big Mac, and some are now with Roger Clemens. And because so many disliked you, Barry, today baseball and its union are in a corner of sorts. They know that the court of public opinion demands they continue to move this ball (no, not Dianobal) forward and do the right thing.
”LYIN’ EYES” by Don Henley and Glenn Frey
City girls just seem to find out early
How to open doors with just a smile
A rich old man
And she won’t have to worry
She’ll dress up all in lace and go in style
Late at night a big old house gets lonely
I guess ev’ry form of refuge has its price
And it breaks her heart to think her love is only
Given to a man with hands as cold as ice
So she tells him she must go out for the evening
To comfort an old friend who’s feelin’ down
But he knows where she’s goin’ as she’s leavin’
She is headed for the cheatin’ side of town
You can’t hide your lyin’ eyes
And your smile is a thin disguise
I thought by now you’d realize
There ain’t no way to hide your lyin’ eyes
On the other side of town a boy is waiting
with fiery eyes and dreams no one could steal
She drives on through the night anticipating
‘Cause he makes her feel the way she used to feel
She rushes to his arms,
They fall together
She whispers that it’s only for awhile
She swears that soon she’ll be comin’ back forever
She pulls away and leaves him with a smile
You can’t hide your lyin’ eyes
And your smile is a thin disguise
I thought by now you’d realize
There ain’t no way to hide you lyin’ eyes
She gets up and pours herself a strong one
And stares out at the stars up in the sky
Another night, it’s gonna be a long one
She draws the shade and hangs her head to cry
She wonders how it ever got this crazy
She thinks about a boy she knew in school
Did she get tired or did she just get lazy?
She’s so far gone she feels just like a fool
My, oh my, you sure know how to arrange things
You set it up so well, so carefully
Ain’t it funny how your new life didn’t change things
You’re still the same old girl you used to be
You can’t hide your lyin eyes
And your smile is a thin disguise
I thought by now you’d realize
There ain’t no way to hide your lyin’ eyes
There ain’t no way to hide your lyin’ eyes
Honey, you can’t hide your lyin’ eyes
Back from Nashville, carry on
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
I feel kinda bad about not getting a new blog up before the other one collapsed sometime today beneath the weight of more than 1,000 posts, but hey, it took me a few days to find my way out of the labyrinthian Opryland Hotel and recover my rental car in the vastness of its parking lots. No?
Either that, or it’s been 70 degrees in Atlanta since I returned, and riding a motorcycle seemed like a more enjoyable option than writing more about the same stuff I wrote about all week in Nashville.
But now we’re refreshed, denizens. Ready to roll.
So let’s rekindle those “four-prospects-for-Lincecum” or “Chuck-for-Baldelli” rumors, shall we?
OK, kidding about that.
But seriously, Braves still have some moves to make, albeit relatively minor ones, before pitchers and catchers report on Feb. 14.
By the way, first P&C workout is 15th, position players report on Feb. 19, first-full squad workout is Feb. 20, and Braves warm up with a Feb. 27 game against the ‘Dawgs at Dark Star before traveling to Vero Beach to play the Dodgers Feb. 28 in our last trip to glorious Dodgertown before that team moves west to one of the new cookie-cutter spring training complexes.
Oh, and before we forget, this could be a potentially explosive week in baseball — this week I’m talking about now, not spring training; stay with me as we jump around — if the much-discussed Mitchell Report comes out and more prominent players are connected to steroids or other performance-enhancement drugs.
You hear so many conflicting reports about the potential magnitude of this thing — that it’s gonna be huge’ that it’ll be anticlimactic; that it’ll contain dozens of big names; that it won’t have anything we haven’t already heard, etc, etc. Until we see it, we’re not going to be able to say with any degree of certainty how important this thing is going to be.
And also, what ramifactions will it even have? Will baseball be able to do anything to punish past users, other than harm their reputations by naming them? That’s uncertain, too. Stay tuned, is all I can suggest.
Oh, one other thing before I forget: A sense of calmness has come over me lately, and now I think I know why. It’s not because I’ve completed my Chrismas shopping, and the Braves have already taken care of most of their offseason business — trading for a lefty and a utility man, jacking up their steeper-priced tickets, etc. — but also because ESPN’s Stuart Scott has been absent from my TV viewing.
Yes, it was like shoulder pain you had for so long didn’t realize how bad it had gotten until it’s gone a while. ESPN’s subtle star has been sidelined after an appendectomy. Now, I want to be clear that I would never wish ill health upon anyone. Seriously, not cool.
Or should I say, “I ain’t gonna say nothing, but that ain’t right.”
Still, it’s been a nice break. Maybe I’ll better appreciate Scott’s unique talent now, afer a respite from him being cool as the other side of the pillow.
OK, back to the blog and a few topics worth, uh-um, stewing over:
Quiet winter meetings: Legendary ‘ball writer and cigar aficionado Hal McCoy of the Dayton Daily News had some great lines about why so little got done in the way of trades and such at the Winter Meetings last week:
“The 3,000-room Opryland Hotel & Resort has its own area code and should have its own zip code. The hotel property is entirely under glass, but a homeless person could wander its winding sidewalks for months without being discovered and evicted.
“A writer covering this year’s baseball winter meetings bought a pedometer and in one day walked 15-1/2 miles without leaving the hotel, more than 27,000 steps.
“Is it any wonder not many trades were consummated? Some team executives seldom saw other teams’ executives for most of the four days.”
Six-year free agents: The Braves will announce this week their six-year minor league free agent signings, and GM Frank Wren said there will be a couple names on there with legit chances to make the team, though he wouldn’t divulge their names.
One of them isn’t Joe Borchard. Wait, I should clarify: He is one of the six-year guys, but suffice to say he’s not one of those with any real shot a making the team this spring.
Yes, Borchard had 10 homers in 239 at-bats with Seattle and Florida in 2006, so he does have some pop. But he also has a .205 career average in 716 at-bats in the majors. For the Marlins last season, he hit .196 with four homers and 60 strikeouts in 179 at-bats.
I only mention him because his was the one name that got out last week among the signings.
Keep in mind, last winter the Braves’ six-year free agents included Willie Harris and Buddy Carlyle. So some of these guys can obviously have an impact during the course of a season, for one reason or another.
Ten mill doesn’t go as far these days: You want to know what a relative bargain the Braves could have at closer with arbi-eligible Rafael Soriano making between $2-3 mill next season? Then consider the contract that Milwaukee just gave Eric Gagne: One year, $10 million, plus incentives worth up to another $1 mill.
Folks, Gagne missed most of the 2005-06 seasons for elbow surgery, then posted a 3.56 ERA and 16-for-20 saves converted in 54 appearances last season with Texas and Boston. He pitched well for the Rangers, (2.21 ERA, 16-for-17 saves), but was an utter disaster with the Red Sox, with a 6.37 ERA and 0-for-3 saves 20 appearances.
Meanwhile, right-hander LaTroy Hawkins just got a one-year, $3.75 million deal with the Yankees, joining the growing ranks of middle relievers/setup men/lefty specialists making at least $3 mill in 2008. Ron Mahay will probably be added to that group soon.
The Braves are fortunate to have a bunch of less experienced, less expensive (in other words, non-free agent) relievers including Soriano, Peter Moylan, Tyler Yates, Mike Gonzalez (when he returns this summer) and recent lefty addition Will Ohman, along with youngsters such as Manny Acosta and Joey Devine. Otherwise, it’d be extremely difficult to build a competitive bullpen without spending more than they will on relievers in 2008.
And yes, their bullpen should be among the best five ‘pens in the National League. Few other NL teams can boast comparable bullpen depth.
But whether they admit it or not, there will also be some question, some nervousness, until Soriano gets through the first couple of months healthy and without going through another brutal stretch giving up homers like he endured last summer. He’s The Man now, and that brings a whole different level of pressure.
He’s undoubtedly got the stuff to be a fine closer. And I think he’s got the mentality. But we’ll find out, won’t we?
As for starting pitching, those who really believe the Braves overpaid for Tom Glavine (one year, $8 mill) should take a look at the marketplace. Or consider the three-year, $30 mill extension Aaron Cook just got from Colorado.
Cook was 8-7 with a 4.05 ERA in 25 starts (166 innings) last season, after going 9-15 with a 4.23 ERA in 2006.
Edgar in Detroit: We’re still trying to comprehend the firepower that Detroit manager Jim Leyland has at his disposal. I mean, the bottom of the Tigers’ batting order is expected to have Edgar Renteria at No. 7 and Pudge Rodriguez in the eighth or ninth hole.
The middle will feature Miguel Cabrera, Gary Sheffield and Magglio Ordonez, in some order. Consider merely the OBP numbers by those sluggers: Sheffield .397 lifetime, Cabrera .430 in 2006 and .401 in 2007, and Ordonez .434 (yes, .434) in 2007.
By the way, do Braves folks realize that in addition to hitting .332 with a .390 OBP, 12 homers and 57 RBIs in 124 games last season, that Edgar struck out only 77 times in 494 at-bats, Chipper Jones 75 times in 513 at-bats, and Brian McCann 74 times in 504 at-bats (after whiffing only 54 times in 2006)?
I point this out because the Braves had the fifth-most strikeouts in the NL, despite having three regulars who struck out rather infrequently.
Of course, Andruw Jones alone struck out 138 times, Jeff Francoeur 129, and Kelly Johnson 117 times.
Speaking of Andruw: He ain’t in Atlanta anymore, as he’ll discover quickly if he reads the L.A. Times.
Here’s part of what the always-acerbic (and often hilarious) T.J. Simers wrote in the Times:
“… At first glance it would look like a no-brainer, adding a player such as Andruw Jones to make up for last season’s Juan Pierre blunder. Not our money, of course, although the Parking Lot Attendant [blogmeister note: that’s how Simers refers to Dodgers owner Frank McCourt] did raise parking prices after signing Pierre.
“The Dodgers just made Jones the fifth highest-paid player in baseball. Not our money, but it will be interesting to see how much Dodger dogs cost next season.
“The Dodgers are gambling Jones will return to form, but you would think they would get a bargain in signing him because of last year’s crummy play. But instead he’s going to get a raise.
“Jones knew he was going into the final year of his contract last season, which is usually a sure bet a player is going to really put out to better his negotiating position. Shea Hillenbrand finished last season with a higher batting average than Jones, who hit .222.
“And yet both the Dodgers and Plaschke made the point that Jones will be motivated to play harder for the Dodgers because he signed a two-year deal and will want another big contract.
“If you have watched Jones play, there’s nothing that seems to motivate him….”
Ouch.
Ignominious day in baseball history: First, I’d like to say, I’m not sure I spelled ignominious correctly. I turned off the spell-check on my computer years ago, because it makes more things wrong than right. But anyway….
OK, on this day (Dec. 10) in baseball history:
1973 — The American League vote unanimously to adopt the designated hitter rule on a trial basis for three years.
1998 — The Devil Rays signs the 34-year-old free agent Jose Canseco to a one-year deal to play left fielder and as a designated hitter.
And how could we have missed this one from yesterday (Dec. 9):
2000 — The Rockies announce the signing of free-agent pitcher Mike Hampton to a eight-year, $123.8 million contract. He’ll compile a 21-28 in two seasons with Colorado before being traded to the Braves in a three-team deal with Florida.
And finally, a song: Someone was thoughtful enough to e-mail me with a suggestion made by a guy who writes another blog, who opined that I should use only relevant portions of a song, pertaining to points I’m making, rather than the entire lyrics. Apparently he doesn’t like being forced to scroll through lyrics he doesn’t like.
So after much consideration, I’m using the entire lyrics to a rather long, and entirely great, Dylan tune.
I’ve been playing the I’m Not There soundtrack to death, and Cat Power’s cover of this classic is one of the best songs on the two-CD set.
“STUCK INSIDE OF MOBILE WITH THE MEMPHIS BLUES AGAIN” by Bob Dylan
Oh, the ragman draws circles
Up and down the block.
I’d ask him what the matter was
But I know that he don’t talk.
And the ladies treat me kindly
And furnish me with tape,
But deep inside my heart
I know I can’t escape.
Oh, Mama, can this really be the end,
To be stuck inside of Mobile
With the Memphis blues again.
Well, Shakespeare, he’s in the alley
With his pointed shoes and his bells,
Speaking to some French girl,
Who says she knows me well.
And I would send a message
To find out if she’s talked,
But the post office has been stolen
And the mailbox is locked.
Oh, Mama, can this really be the end,
To be stuck inside of Mobile
With the Memphis blues again.
Mona tried to tell me
To stay away from the train line.
She said that all the railroad men
Just drink up your blood like wine.
An’ I said, “Oh, I didn’t know that,
But then again, there’s only one I’ve met
An’ he just smoked my eyelids
An’ punched my cigarette.”
Oh, Mama, can this really be the end,
To be stuck inside of Mobile
With the Memphis blues again.
Grandpa died last week
And now he’s buried in the rocks,
But everybody still talks about
How badly they were shocked.
But me, I expected it to happen,
I knew he’d lost control
When he built a fire on Main Street
And shot it full of holes.
Oh, Mama, can this really be the end,
To be stuck inside of Mobile
With the Memphis blues again.
Now the senator came down here
Showing ev’ryone his gun,
Handing out free tickets
To the wedding of his son.
An’ me, I nearly got busted
An’ wouldn’t it be my luck
To get caught without a ticket
And be discovered beneath a truck.
Oh, Mama, can this really be the end,
To be stuck inside of Mobile
With the Memphis blues again.
Now the preacher looked so baffled
When I asked him why he dressed
With twenty pounds of headlines
Stapled to his chest.
But he cursed me when I proved it to him,
Then I whispered, “Not even you can hide.
You see, you’re just like me,
I hope you’re satisfied.”
Oh, Mama, can this really be the end,
To be stuck inside of Mobile
With the Memphis blues again.
Now the rainman gave me two cures,
Then he said, “Jump right in.”
The one was Texas medicine,
The other was just railroad gin.
An’ like a fool I mixed them
An’ it strangled up my mind,
An’ now people just get uglier
An’ I have no sense of time.
Oh, Mama, can this really be the end,
To be stuck inside of Mobile
With the Memphis blues again.
When Ruthie says come see her
In her honky-tonk lagoon,
Where I can watch her waltz for free
‘Neath her Panamanian moon.
An’ I say, “Aw come on now,
You must know about my debutante.”
An’ she says, “Your debutante just knows what you need
But I know what you want.”
Oh, Mama, can this really be the end,
To be stuck inside of Mobile
With the Memphis blues again.
Now the bricks lay on Grand Street
Where the neon madmen climb.
They all fall there so perfectly,
It all seems so well timed.
An’ here I sit so patiently
Waiting to find out what price
You have to pay to get out of
Going through all these things twice.
Oh, Mama, can this really be the end,
To be stuck inside of Mobile
With the Memphis blues again.
Ten weeks until the four magic words….
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Almost all of the Braves’ moves have already been made, and we still have 10 weeks left until we head toward Dark Star and the most splendid four-word phrase: Pitchers and catchers report.
Ten weeks to pick apart, praise, criticize, bitch, moan and project.
Might as well get started.
But seriously, there are two days to go in these Winter Meetings, but it looks like the Braves might be done dealing after killing two birds with one stone through Tuesday’s trade with the Cubs that filled the backup shortstop/utility need (Omar Infante) and lefty relief need (Will “Oh man, dude is nuts” Ohman).
They are still looking for a one-year center fielder (they’re at a stalemate, at least temporarily, in discussions with teams that have one available) and backup catcher (Damian Miller is the one I’m hearing mentioned most in Braves circles, the one they like a lot; and Sal Fasano to a lesser degree).
The Brave gave up a potentially long-term quality reliever or starter in right-hander Jose Ascanio, but the landscape is littered with hard-throwing “can’t miss” guys who missed (anybody notice Jose Capellan was traded again yesterday?)
Besides, with some concerns about Ascanio’s past back problems, and some depth among potential young pitching in the organization, the Braves felt it prudent to deal from a position of strength and fill a couple of needs in one stroke.
Are Omar or Ohman superstars? Not hardly. But that’s not the point. The Braves didn’t make the move to make a big splash. They didn’t come to these meetings looking to stoke ticket sales. They came looking to fill as many of their four specific needs as they could.
They filled half of them, including the most important in their view: Lefty relief. Ohman’s 4.33 career ERA in 220 appearances for the Cubs doesn’t jump off the page (at least not in a good way), but his 2.32 ERA in 119 appearances everywhere but Wrigley Field (including 1.45 last season) is pretty impressive.
Not that ERA is a great indicator of a reliever’s effectiveness, and particularly a lefty specialist. He has a .196 career opponents’ average against lefty hitters, and that’s an important number.
Does he have baggage and question marks about attitude and comments he’s made in the past? Yes and yes. But the Braves have taken on so-called problem players (Sheffield, Bonilla, etc.) in the past and had no problems with them.
Their clubhouse, at least with Bobby Cox at the helm, has a way of rounding off the rough and/or obnoxious edges on some players, at least while they’re in that clubhouse and in the uniform on game day.
But we’ll see. I’m not entirely solid on Ohman, and certainly would rather have had Ron Mahay back. But Ohman will cost about half of Mahay’s likely $3 mill or so price next season, and Mahay wanted at least a three-year contract, which the Braves weren’t about to do for a 36-year-old reliever with a 4.65 career ERA with 207 walks and 354 strikeouts in 419 innings, who’s made more than 35 appearances in only three of 11 major league seasons.
As for Infante, that’s a good pickup for the Braves. Strong glove guy, good clubhouse guy, very versatile, with legit ability to play three infield and three outfield positions, though I’m really not expecting to see him in the OF corners very often, if at all.
By getting a guy who can play 2B, SS and 3B, the Braves gave themselves some flexibility in selecting their last remaining utility spot to whomever they believe will be their best option as a bat off the bench, rather than being restricted to choosing someone who can back up a certain infield spot, like if they’d had to select Willy Aybar or Martin Prado to have a backup 3B.
Infante can do that now. He can back up Yunel Escobar and Chipper Jones. I still think they’ll have to have someone with some infield experience for that final role, obviously, since otherwise you’re in trouble if Chipper and either Escobar or Kelly Johnson gets hurt at the same time.
But instead of getting a pure infielder, they could go with a super-utility type guy if they can find one. Or maybe, just maybe, they give Brent Lillibridge a shot this spring if they can’t trade for or sign a poor man’s version of Mark DeRosa at an affordable price.
What about Brayan Pena? The amiable young switch-hitting catcher has spent more time playing other positions including LF, 3B and 1B since early last season. At times it’s looked like the Braves were grooming Pena to be a utility man, but GM Frank Wren indicated today that he’s probably not a candidate for that last utility job, unless Bobby Cox decided for some reason he wanted three catchers.
The good news for Pena backers: He is a candidate for the backup catching job. This is a change from what we’d been led to believe, which was that Clint Sammons would have the backup job if the Braves don’t sign or trade for another veteran backup.
Wren said Sammons, Pena and Corky Miller could compete for the backup job in spring training if they don’t get another guy. But he also made it clear the Braves are continuing discussions with a few teams about backup catching, and that some is available on the trade market — and said the Braves would prefer to trade for one rather than sign a free agent.
As for Lillibridge….
Just sitting in the suite with Wren and Cox on Tuesday, it was obvious how much Cox likes Lillibridge (Wren had said as much), and how quickly he’d probably give his approval if it came down to a question of whether he thinks he could get Lillibridge enough at-bats to allow him to continue developing while with the major league team, instead of playing every day for another half-season or more in the minors.
Cox really believes Lillibridge is something special, and so does Terry Pendleton and every other Braves coach or scout I’ve talked to.
For what it’s worth (and I had this as a comment late last night on the other blog), here’s how Lillibridge fared in Baseball America’s prospect rankings by league:
He was rated No. 7 prospect in the International League after the 2007 season, right behind No. 6 prospect Jacoby Ellsbury and No. 5 Jed Lowrie, both of the Red Sox, and just ahead of No. 8 Yunel Escobar.
The rundown in the BA rankings read, in part: “Lillibridge reminded one opposing manager of Khalil Greene, as a 5-foot-11 shortstop with excellent leverage in his swing. Unlike Greene, Lillibridge offers above-average speed….”
By the way, Ellsbury hit .298 with 14 doubles, two homers and 28 RBIs in 363 at-bats for Pawtucket in the IL, and made quite an impact for the World Series champions down the stretch and in the Fall Classic. Lowrie, a shortstop, hit .300 with 16 doubles, five homers and 21 RBIs in 160 at-bats for Pawtucket.
Lillibridge hit .287 with 14 doubles, 10 homers and 41 RBIs in 321 at-bats for Richmond in the IL.
Just as a side note, all three of those guys are the same age (23).
Wren said Lillibridge would probably play some outfield during spring training, to get a feel for it again after not playing it since he was a center fielder at Washington in 2003. To me it’s clear the Braves are thinking he could be a utility candidate, since they’re no longer talking about him as a center field candidate as they briefly did in October.
Majors or minor for Lillibridge? It’s just a matter of whether they believe he can get enough at-bats, not only to continue his development but to stay sharp enough on the bench to be able to come in as a pinch-hitter. That’s not an easy job, and there’s a reason most championship teams have usually had older guys as primary pinch-hitters.
If the Braves have Diaz on the bench half the time, but otherwise only Infante (not much of a pinch-hitter at all) and, say, Damian Miller and Scott Thorman (no, they’ve not said Thorman’s on the team, but sounds like he certainly could be), then do they have enough veteran pinch-hitting?
Julio Franco was the answer for a few years, but not now, at 49. So we’ll see how it plays out. As of today, Lillibridge has to be considered for that last utility job. But the Braves might pull off another trade or sign another veteran guy for that job we thought would go to Aybar or Prado — and still could go to one of them.
Miller as backup catcher? The Braves really like the 38-year-old free agent, not for his offense - that’s been in decline for two seasons - but his veteran knowledge and defensive savvy.
They believe he could help out Brian McCann, the young Braves starting catcher whose defense slipped some last season, whether because of injuries, conditioning, or a combination of reasons.
Miller hit .270 or higher in seven of his 11 major league seasons, and the 2002 All-Star has 87 homers and 406 RBIs in 989 games. But he hit just .251 in 2006 and .237 last season for Milwaukee, when he had only 186 at-bats after getting 330 or more in the previous four seasons.
But the Braves would only need him to play about once a week or twice a week as long as McCann is healthy. And by all accounts, Miller has about as good as it gets in terms of clubhouse leadership and veteran know-how at his position.
He made only two errors in 693 chances in 2006, the second-best fielding percentage (.997) in the NL that year behind Houston’s Brad Ausmus (.998). In 2005, Miller had a .996 fielding percentage.
McCann was 10th among NL catchers with a .989 fielding percentage (nine errors) in 2006, and last season his .987 (13 errors) was the second-lowest percentage in the league behind Florida’s Miguel Olivo (.986). McCann also threw out only 19.5 percent of would-be base stealers (17 of 87), which ranked eighth among NL catchers.
Why Harris was cut: I think most folks realize that Willie Harris was really bad for most of the last three months of the season, but the argument can be made that his overall season numbers, in terms of batting average, OBP and slugging (.270/.349/.392), compare favorably to Kansas City’s David DeJesus (.250/.351/.372).
So why, some have asked, might the Braves consider trading Chuck James for DeJesus in order to get their “stopgap” center fielder to handle the position for a year or so until Jordan Schafer is ready? Why not just use Harris?
Several reasons, the biggest being, Harris is not nearly as good a player as DeJesus. He’s just not. Ask anyone who’s seen both, any scout, and he’d tell you there’s no comparison between their defensive abilities. And offensively, people need to realize that Harris had the best two months of his career after his end-of-April callup with the Braves.
From late June through the end of the season, he was pretty much the same player he’s been for most of his career. A fringe major leaguer, 29 years old with a .247 career average and .317 OBP, a guy who has bounced around and signed a minor league contract with the Braves last winter.
Great guy. Hard worker. Energetic. Fan favorite after his fast start.
But not a particularly good player. Which is why he was taken off the 40-man roster Tuesday when the Braves needed to open a space after Tuesday’s trade. Who else they going to take off the 40-man? No one on that roster has a better chance of clearing waivers and not being picked up by another team.
There’s a decent chance the Braves will re-sign him to a minor league deal and invite him back to spring training, if he doesn’t get another offer. But it’s really not a Braves priority right now, at all. They’ve got outfielders, including several young kids knocking at the major league door.
Not to continue piling on Harris, but maybe some could use a reminder of how bad he was late last season. Or actually, for the entire second half of the season.
In 71 games after June 25, Harris hit .204 (44-for-216) with one homer, 20 RBIs, 50 strikeouts, a .297 OBP and seven stolen bases in 14 attempts.
And from Aug 17 through the end of the season, he hit .105 (9-for-86) with 22 strikeouts, a .194 OBP and a .209 slugging percentage.
Here’s an idea of what I meant by that two-month stretch:
From May 2 to June 25, Harris hit .387 (48-for-124) in 43 games with a .441 OBP and 10 steals in 14 attempts. He was outstanding, a sparkplug for the Braves. A savior after Langerhans was traded.
But then it ended, and almost overnight he was the player he’d been previously in his career.
Take out those eight magical weeks in Harris’ season, and for the other 443 games of his major league career he has a .231 career average (259-for-1119) and .305 OBP, with 37 doubles, six homers, 73 RBIs, 223 strikeouts and 115 walks.
A .231 average in 443 games outside of those eight weeks.
And by the way, Harris has a .195 career average and .253 OBP against left-handed pitchers, with 53 strikeouts and zero homers in 200 at-bats. He hit .191 in 47 at-bats against lefties last season.
That’s why he’s not an every-day player, and won’t be.
And by the way, some folks have asked mne why the Braves would consider someone like Corey Patterson (yes, they’ve discussed him) for the center-field job, instead of just handing it over to rookie Josh Anderson or one of the prospects, Schafer or fringe prospect Gregor Blanco.
After all, Patterson had only a .269 average with 26 doubles, eight homers and a .304 OBP last season for Baltimore. Couldn’t one of the kids do that, or come close?
Possibly, they could. But when I ran this by Wren, his answer was what I suspected: There’s not a clear-cut best way to make such a decision, but the Braves and other teams have to weigh what an experienced player might produce for them on the field, plus what it might do in terms of allowing a prospect like Schafer continue to get needed seasoning in the minors.
In other words, Patterson might not do appreciably more than Josh Anderson (other than hit about 5-10 more homers), but there’s no way to know that Anderson or Shafer might hit over the full course of a major league season, and there are plenty of cases, hundreds of them, of rookies thrust into the majors too soon, and their development set back by a year or so by their struggles.
No one thinks Schafer’s psyche is too fragile to take a setback, but if they can reduce the chances of him being underprepared for the majors, of him having a season like, for instance, the one Thorman had, then why not let him have at least a half-season or full season in the minors? The kid hasn’t played above A-ball, other than facing some Double-A or so prospects in the Arizona Fall League.
Big difference between that and facing major league pitcher every night. Tremendous difference. It’s why Ellsbury was such a huge story. He’s an exception.
And Anderson is a nice little player, a fourth-outfielder type, but not one who has experienced more than two weeks in a major league lineup, which he had in September. He can run and hit for average, or at least he did in the minors.
But he’s not going to give you pop and it’s not known, with any degree of certainty, whether he can even hit for the .269 and .275 averages that Patterson hit for the past two seasons with Baltimore, not to mention amass the 24 homers and 98 RBIs that Patterson had in 267 games during those two seasons.
That’s why the Braves are still exploring options like Patterson, Chris Duffy and David DeJesus (actually, not DeJesus — Kansas City’s made it pretty clear they’re not looking to trade him, at least not now, and the price would be high anyway).
OK, that was way too long a blog.
Go ahead and kick out the footlights, Mr. Cash:
”DON’T TAKE YOUR GUNS TO TOWN” by Johnny Cash
A young cowboy named Billy Joe grew restless on the farm
A boy filled with wonderlust who really meant no harm
He changed his clothes and shined his boots
And combed his dark hair down
And his mother cried as he walked out
Don’t take your guns to town son
Leave your guns at home Bill
Don’t take your guns to town
He laughed and kissed his mom
And said your Billy Joe’s a man
I can shoot as quick and straight as anybody can
But I wouldn’t shoot without a cause
I’d gun nobody down
But she cried again as he rode away
Don’t take your guns to town son
Leave your guns at home Bill
Don’t take your guns to town
He sang a song as on he rode
His guns hung at his hips
He rode into a cattle town
A smile upon his lips
He stopped and walked into a bar
And laid his money down
But his mother’s words echoed again
Don’t take your guns to town son
Leave your guns at home Bill
Don’t take your guns to town
He drank his first strong liquor then to calm his shaking hand
And tried to tell himself he had become a man
A dusty cowpoke at his side began to laugh him down
And he heard again his mothers words
Don’t take your guns to town son
Leave your guns at home Bill
Don’t take your guns to town
Filled with rage then
Billy Joe reached for his gun to draw
But the stranger drew his gun and fired
Before he even saw
As Billy Joe fell to the floor
The crowd all gathered ‘round
And wondered at his final words
Don’t take your guns to town son
Leave your guns at home Bill
Don’t take your guns to town
Andruw to Dodgers? Roaming, reporting from Nashvegas
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
There are about 400 laptops opened for business in this cavernous media work room, but only about 100 of them have people tapping at keyboards on this chilly Monday afternoon in Nashville. Other laptops sit lonely, at the ready.
Not that I’d know it was chilly if I hadn’t looked online, since I’m inside seemingly the largest hermetically sealed space in the world, a sprawling hotel with massive glass-roofed atriums over lobbies that contain gardens, water falls, ponds, overpriced restaurants with faux facades, and media.
Many, many members of the media.
Plus hundreds of rosy-cheeked young folks in ill-fitting suits or too-revealing dresses, all trying to get their foot in the door of the baseball business in some capacity, be it the front office, the broadcast booth, etc.
Baseball’s Winter Meetings are not just about signing free agents and making trades. There’s also a massive job fair, equipment trade show, and minor league meetings going on simultaneously, hence baseball’s desire to have this thing in a massive hotel/convention center like this or last year at Dark Star (Disney).
Anyway, we’re here, and working. Or some of us are working. Others are eating. And later, drinking.
Many are work/schmoozing in the various lobbies here — it’s hard to work the lobby here, simply because there are so many lobbies. You might be in the Cascades lobby, while Scott Boras is holding court in the Magnolia lobby.
And then, by the time someone comes running breathlessly past and mentions he or she is on the way to pound out a quick story about something Boras just said, it’s too late and you’ll never make it to the other lobby where Uber Agent is finished speaking.
Anyway, I know, you’re all feeling sorry. Tough gig.
Did I mention I got the George Jones wakeup call today? You can select from a host of country stars to be the voice on the greeting when you set your wakeup call here at Opryland Hotel and Convention Center. Yes, sir. That’s living.
OK, rumors:
It’s been slow so far, but I’m sure that’ll change by the end of the day. We’re all watching the New York and Boston guys try to figure out which of their Empires (or AL East teams) will cave first and give the Twins everything they want for Johan Santana, plus the $140 million or so that Santana wants before he’ll agree to drop his no-trade clause.
Andruw Jones: I can tell you, my hunch last week about Andruw to the Dodgers looks pretty good about now. First team that’s been connected to him so far is the Dodgers, who may or may not have a two- or three-year offer on the table for the 10-time Glove Glove winner who roamed center field for the Braves for a decade.
I’d expect Boras to wait and try driving up the price a little more, because right now we’re probably talking perhaps one-quarter of the overall value Boras once indicated Jones would be worth. I’ve heard about $15-16 mill per year is what Dodgers are talking, and again that’s only for two or possibly three years.
Talked to someone who covers the White Sox and was told they are very reluctant to do business with Boras, and this guy didn’t think they would get involved in the Andruw bidding unless it was a smaller offer for three years at under $10 mill per. My, how quickly the landscape appears to have changed for the man who totaled 92 homers and 257 RBIs during 2005-06.
Obviously there are quite a few GMs who believe Andruw is a very old 30 and is in decline mode. A career-worst season like he had in a contract year made a convincing case.
And not playing that last weekend in Houston … gets curiouser in retrospect. Just never understood why the guy who played hurt day after day after day, would sit out, or be told to sit out and not protest the move, for his last three games in a Braves uniform.
As for contract length and figures, remember it was not long ago when Andruw’s agent was giving every indication his client, as one of the only complete players in baseball, could expect a long-term contract worth $150 mill or thereabouts (must say, Boras never gave the exact figure, but that’s what I got to by fishing for hints).
Not that anyone believed that would happen as the season wore on and Andruw’s batting average hovered between .215-.225.
If I had to guess, I’d bet he’ll end up getting some sort of two-year deal with two or three option years added on, that could potentially be worth $75 mill or so, but which will have some protection built in for the club while also permitting Andruw to opt out after a couple years. But that’s just somewhat-educated guessing.
Center field:So far today I’ve had two writers, a PR official from another team, a broadcaster and a scout ask me if the Braves are interested in (fill in the blank) center fielder.
Two asked me (separately) about Chris Duffy and Darin Erstad. I said I didn’t think Duffy would be a good fit, too much off-field baggage for the Braves, and Erstad, at 33, is a shell of the player he once was.
I think what a lot of folks, including some fans, don’t realize is that the Braves have no doubts whatsoever that they’d get solid defense from Josh Anderson, Jordan Schafer or Gregor Blanco, the three youngsters that Frank Wren has said would compete for the center-field job if the Braves don’t get another before opening day.
And GM Frank Wren has said Bobby Cox believes the Braves have enough offense at other positions to have a defense-first CF if they need to this season, that whatever offense they provide is a plus.
That said, the Braves would probably like to have a guy like a Coco Crisp or David DeJesus to man center until Schafer is truly ready to step in and thrive in the majors. But they’re not going to give up a lot of young talent in order to trade for a player like Crisp or DeJesus, plus pay a multi-million-dollar salary on top of that. Again, they consider this a stopgap need, because they’re pretty certain about Schafer for the future. And if something were to happen to prevent him from realizing his potential, they also have Gorkys Hernandez behind Schafer.
Lefty reliever: We know Ron Mahay wants a longer contract (three years minimum) than the Braves are willing to give a 36-year-old lefty specialist. He’ll get it from someone. Three or four years, probably about $3 mill per.
So where will the Braves turn to fill their lefty need? They’ve got only the relatively unproven and erratic Royce Ring as an incumbent lefty, since Mike Gonzalez is likely to be out until around the All-Star break?
The Braves got Gonzalez from the Pirates last winter, and coincidentally, might look to Pittsburgh for another lefty this winter. Damaso Marte is available. He’s 32 and coming off a career-resurgence season in which he posted a 2.38 ERA and 1.103 WHIP, by far his best since since his career year in 2003.
Marte had 51 strikeouts with only 18 walks and 32 hits allowed in 45-1/3 innings over 65 appearances last season, and has been pretty solid now for six years running, with at least 65 appearances every season.
The bad news is that the Yankees are among the other teams interested. But the Yankees could satisfy their lefty needs by signing Mahay or Jeremy Affeldt, the two prime lefty specialists on the free-agent market. So we’ll see.
Problem for the Braves is that so many teams are looking for bullpen help, and the market for middle relievers and lefties has never spiked higher than now.
Braves bargaining chips: The Braves could have something that plenty of teams want badly - an extra starting pitcher. Even if Mike Hampton is questionable this spring (and of course he will be, always), they’d still have four guys they consider capable of succeeding in the rotation to compete for the last two spots: Rookies Jair Jurrjens and Jo-Jo Reyes, incumbent lefty Chuck James, and Jeff Bennett, who pitched well late last season and this winter in Venezuela.
I know plenty of fans would like to have Dan Haren or another proven stud at the top, but folks, I can’t see any way the Braves do that. Not when they have other needs, and not when they already have a surplus (compared to other teams) of starters and the chance to have a cheap, effective starter like Jurrjens in the rotation. They’re not going to trade away young talent and pay another big salary to get another veteran starter, when they already have three (Smoltz, Hudson, Glavine) they believe can combine for 42-45 wins and about 600 innings.
Meanwhile, whether this week, this winter, or during spring training, you can bet other teams are going to inquire about one or more of the Braves’ “extra” starters. And that’s why I can’t help but think someone is going to make an offer for James that the Braves can’t refuse.
Yes, he’s won 11 games in each of his first two full seasons in the majors. But would anyone be shocked if James had, say, an 8-12 season with a 4.80 ERA? Not predicting it’ll happen. I like James and believe he can be a quality pitcher for some time. But I don’t have a lot of confidence that’s going to happen, either, and his propensity for gopher balls, limited repertoire, and lack of preparation on the mental side lead me to wonder if the Braves might not try to move him to help fill another need if a team makes the right offer.
The Braves might also listen to offers for Matt Diaz, but I’d guess they want to see more from Brandon Jones this spring before making a move like that. Put it this way: Would you want to rely heavily on Willie Harris in left field?
Scott Thorman has finished his winter-ball assignment in Mexico (he wasn’t hurt; Braves said plan all along was for him to play first part of the season), and I’m asked frequently about the Braves’ plans for him.
Right now he’s presumably still their backup 1B. But if they believe Matt Diaz could handle that limited assignment (Teixeira will play almost every day long as he’s healthy, or perhaps that Brayan Pena could handle it and also play some outfield, then maybe the Braves would look to trade Thorman.
Haven’t heard any teams interested yet, or even that it’s being considered. But that means little if anything, since trades for guys like Thorman are often finalized before anything’s every leaked about such relatively minor deals.
OK, I’m gonna go work the lobby. Or lobbies. We’re supposed to meet with Wren later today, and hopefully we’ll have something to tell you then. But like I’ve said, this could be a relatively slow week for the Bravos in Nashvegas.
”NASHVILLE CATS” by John Sebastian (later covered by Steve Earle)
Nashville cats
Play clean as country water
Nashville cats
Play wild as mountain dew
Nashville cats
Been playin’ since they’s babies
Nashville cats
Get work before they’re two
Well, there’s 1,352 guitar pickers in Nashville
And they can pick more notes than the number of ants on a Tennessee ant hill
There’s 1,352 guitar cases in Nashville
And anyone that unpacks his guitar can play twice as better than I will
Nashville cats
Play clean as country water
Nashville cats
Play wild as mountain dew
Nashville cats
Been playin’ since they’s babies
Nashville cats
Get work before they’re two
I was just 13 you might say I was a musical proverbial knee-high
When I heard a couple new sounding tunes on the tube and they blasted me sky high
Then the record man said everyone is a yellin’ send records from Nashville
And up North there ain’t nobody buy ‘em and I said, but I will
Nashville cats
Play clean as country water
Nashville cats
Play wild as mountain dew
Nashville cats
Been playin’ since they’s babies
Nashville cats
Get work before they’re two
Well there’s 16,821 mothers from Nashville
All their friends play music and they ain’t uptight if one of the kids will
Because it’s custom made for any mother’s son to be a guitar picker in Nashville
And I sure am glad I got a chance to say a word about the music and the mothers from Nashville
Nashville cats
Play clean as country water
Nashville cats
Play wild as mountain dew
Nashville cats
Been playin’ since they’s babies
Nashville cats
Get work before they’re two
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