AJC > Sports > Braves > Blog > Archives > 2007 > December > 05
Wednesday, December 5, 2007
Ten weeks until the four magic words….
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Almost all of the Braves’ moves have already been made, and we still have 10 weeks left until we head toward Dark Star and the most splendid four-word phrase: Pitchers and catchers report.
Ten weeks to pick apart, praise, criticize, bitch, moan and project.
Might as well get started.
But seriously, there are two days to go in these Winter Meetings, but it looks like the Braves might be done dealing after killing two birds with one stone through Tuesday’s trade with the Cubs that filled the backup shortstop/utility need (Omar Infante) and lefty relief need (Will “Oh man, dude is nuts” Ohman).
They are still looking for a one-year center fielder (they’re at a stalemate, at least temporarily, in discussions with teams that have one available) and backup catcher (Damian Miller is the one I’m hearing mentioned most in Braves circles, the one they like a lot; and Sal Fasano to a lesser degree).
The Brave gave up a potentially long-term quality reliever or starter in right-hander Jose Ascanio, but the landscape is littered with hard-throwing “can’t miss” guys who missed (anybody notice Jose Capellan was traded again yesterday?)
Besides, with some concerns about Ascanio’s past back problems, and some depth among potential young pitching in the organization, the Braves felt it prudent to deal from a position of strength and fill a couple of needs in one stroke.
Are Omar or Ohman superstars? Not hardly. But that’s not the point. The Braves didn’t make the move to make a big splash. They didn’t come to these meetings looking to stoke ticket sales. They came looking to fill as many of their four specific needs as they could.
They filled half of them, including the most important in their view: Lefty relief. Ohman’s 4.33 career ERA in 220 appearances for the Cubs doesn’t jump off the page (at least not in a good way), but his 2.32 ERA in 119 appearances everywhere but Wrigley Field (including 1.45 last season) is pretty impressive.
Not that ERA is a great indicator of a reliever’s effectiveness, and particularly a lefty specialist. He has a .196 career opponents’ average against lefty hitters, and that’s an important number.
Does he have baggage and question marks about attitude and comments he’s made in the past? Yes and yes. But the Braves have taken on so-called problem players (Sheffield, Bonilla, etc.) in the past and had no problems with them.
Their clubhouse, at least with Bobby Cox at the helm, has a way of rounding off the rough and/or obnoxious edges on some players, at least while they’re in that clubhouse and in the uniform on game day.
But we’ll see. I’m not entirely solid on Ohman, and certainly would rather have had Ron Mahay back. But Ohman will cost about half of Mahay’s likely $3 mill or so price next season, and Mahay wanted at least a three-year contract, which the Braves weren’t about to do for a 36-year-old reliever with a 4.65 career ERA with 207 walks and 354 strikeouts in 419 innings, who’s made more than 35 appearances in only three of 11 major league seasons.
As for Infante, that’s a good pickup for the Braves. Strong glove guy, good clubhouse guy, very versatile, with legit ability to play three infield and three outfield positions, though I’m really not expecting to see him in the OF corners very often, if at all.
By getting a guy who can play 2B, SS and 3B, the Braves gave themselves some flexibility in selecting their last remaining utility spot to whomever they believe will be their best option as a bat off the bench, rather than being restricted to choosing someone who can back up a certain infield spot, like if they’d had to select Willy Aybar or Martin Prado to have a backup 3B.
Infante can do that now. He can back up Yunel Escobar and Chipper Jones. I still think they’ll have to have someone with some infield experience for that final role, obviously, since otherwise you’re in trouble if Chipper and either Escobar or Kelly Johnson gets hurt at the same time.
But instead of getting a pure infielder, they could go with a super-utility type guy if they can find one. Or maybe, just maybe, they give Brent Lillibridge a shot this spring if they can’t trade for or sign a poor man’s version of Mark DeRosa at an affordable price.
What about Brayan Pena? The amiable young switch-hitting catcher has spent more time playing other positions including LF, 3B and 1B since early last season. At times it’s looked like the Braves were grooming Pena to be a utility man, but GM Frank Wren indicated today that he’s probably not a candidate for that last utility job, unless Bobby Cox decided for some reason he wanted three catchers.
The good news for Pena backers: He is a candidate for the backup catching job. This is a change from what we’d been led to believe, which was that Clint Sammons would have the backup job if the Braves don’t sign or trade for another veteran backup.
Wren said Sammons, Pena and Corky Miller could compete for the backup job in spring training if they don’t get another guy. But he also made it clear the Braves are continuing discussions with a few teams about backup catching, and that some is available on the trade market — and said the Braves would prefer to trade for one rather than sign a free agent.
As for Lillibridge….
Just sitting in the suite with Wren and Cox on Tuesday, it was obvious how much Cox likes Lillibridge (Wren had said as much), and how quickly he’d probably give his approval if it came down to a question of whether he thinks he could get Lillibridge enough at-bats to allow him to continue developing while with the major league team, instead of playing every day for another half-season or more in the minors.
Cox really believes Lillibridge is something special, and so does Terry Pendleton and every other Braves coach or scout I’ve talked to.
For what it’s worth (and I had this as a comment late last night on the other blog), here’s how Lillibridge fared in Baseball America’s prospect rankings by league:
He was rated No. 7 prospect in the International League after the 2007 season, right behind No. 6 prospect Jacoby Ellsbury and No. 5 Jed Lowrie, both of the Red Sox, and just ahead of No. 8 Yunel Escobar.
The rundown in the BA rankings read, in part: “Lillibridge reminded one opposing manager of Khalil Greene, as a 5-foot-11 shortstop with excellent leverage in his swing. Unlike Greene, Lillibridge offers above-average speed….”
By the way, Ellsbury hit .298 with 14 doubles, two homers and 28 RBIs in 363 at-bats for Pawtucket in the IL, and made quite an impact for the World Series champions down the stretch and in the Fall Classic. Lowrie, a shortstop, hit .300 with 16 doubles, five homers and 21 RBIs in 160 at-bats for Pawtucket.
Lillibridge hit .287 with 14 doubles, 10 homers and 41 RBIs in 321 at-bats for Richmond in the IL.
Just as a side note, all three of those guys are the same age (23).
Wren said Lillibridge would probably play some outfield during spring training, to get a feel for it again after not playing it since he was a center fielder at Washington in 2003. To me it’s clear the Braves are thinking he could be a utility candidate, since they’re no longer talking about him as a center field candidate as they briefly did in October.
Majors or minor for Lillibridge? It’s just a matter of whether they believe he can get enough at-bats, not only to continue his development but to stay sharp enough on the bench to be able to come in as a pinch-hitter. That’s not an easy job, and there’s a reason most championship teams have usually had older guys as primary pinch-hitters.
If the Braves have Diaz on the bench half the time, but otherwise only Infante (not much of a pinch-hitter at all) and, say, Damian Miller and Scott Thorman (no, they’ve not said Thorman’s on the team, but sounds like he certainly could be), then do they have enough veteran pinch-hitting?
Julio Franco was the answer for a few years, but not now, at 49. So we’ll see how it plays out. As of today, Lillibridge has to be considered for that last utility job. But the Braves might pull off another trade or sign another veteran guy for that job we thought would go to Aybar or Prado — and still could go to one of them.
Miller as backup catcher? The Braves really like the 38-year-old free agent, not for his offense - that’s been in decline for two seasons - but his veteran knowledge and defensive savvy.
They believe he could help out Brian McCann, the young Braves starting catcher whose defense slipped some last season, whether because of injuries, conditioning, or a combination of reasons.
Miller hit .270 or higher in seven of his 11 major league seasons, and the 2002 All-Star has 87 homers and 406 RBIs in 989 games. But he hit just .251 in 2006 and .237 last season for Milwaukee, when he had only 186 at-bats after getting 330 or more in the previous four seasons.
But the Braves would only need him to play about once a week or twice a week as long as McCann is healthy. And by all accounts, Miller has about as good as it gets in terms of clubhouse leadership and veteran know-how at his position.
He made only two errors in 693 chances in 2006, the second-best fielding percentage (.997) in the NL that year behind Houston’s Brad Ausmus (.998). In 2005, Miller had a .996 fielding percentage.
McCann was 10th among NL catchers with a .989 fielding percentage (nine errors) in 2006, and last season his .987 (13 errors) was the second-lowest percentage in the league behind Florida’s Miguel Olivo (.986). McCann also threw out only 19.5 percent of would-be base stealers (17 of 87), which ranked eighth among NL catchers.
Why Harris was cut: I think most folks realize that Willie Harris was really bad for most of the last three months of the season, but the argument can be made that his overall season numbers, in terms of batting average, OBP and slugging (.270/.349/.392), compare favorably to Kansas City’s David DeJesus (.250/.351/.372).
So why, some have asked, might the Braves consider trading Chuck James for DeJesus in order to get their “stopgap” center fielder to handle the position for a year or so until Jordan Schafer is ready? Why not just use Harris?
Several reasons, the biggest being, Harris is not nearly as good a player as DeJesus. He’s just not. Ask anyone who’s seen both, any scout, and he’d tell you there’s no comparison between their defensive abilities. And offensively, people need to realize that Harris had the best two months of his career after his end-of-April callup with the Braves.
From late June through the end of the season, he was pretty much the same player he’s been for most of his career. A fringe major leaguer, 29 years old with a .247 career average and .317 OBP, a guy who has bounced around and signed a minor league contract with the Braves last winter.
Great guy. Hard worker. Energetic. Fan favorite after his fast start.
But not a particularly good player. Which is why he was taken off the 40-man roster Tuesday when the Braves needed to open a space after Tuesday’s trade. Who else they going to take off the 40-man? No one on that roster has a better chance of clearing waivers and not being picked up by another team.
There’s a decent chance the Braves will re-sign him to a minor league deal and invite him back to spring training, if he doesn’t get another offer. But it’s really not a Braves priority right now, at all. They’ve got outfielders, including several young kids knocking at the major league door.
Not to continue piling on Harris, but maybe some could use a reminder of how bad he was late last season. Or actually, for the entire second half of the season.
In 71 games after June 25, Harris hit .204 (44-for-216) with one homer, 20 RBIs, 50 strikeouts, a .297 OBP and seven stolen bases in 14 attempts.
And from Aug 17 through the end of the season, he hit .105 (9-for-86) with 22 strikeouts, a .194 OBP and a .209 slugging percentage.
Here’s an idea of what I meant by that two-month stretch:
From May 2 to June 25, Harris hit .387 (48-for-124) in 43 games with a .441 OBP and 10 steals in 14 attempts. He was outstanding, a sparkplug for the Braves. A savior after Langerhans was traded.
But then it ended, and almost overnight he was the player he’d been previously in his career.
Take out those eight magical weeks in Harris’ season, and for the other 443 games of his major league career he has a .231 career average (259-for-1119) and .305 OBP, with 37 doubles, six homers, 73 RBIs, 223 strikeouts and 115 walks.
A .231 average in 443 games outside of those eight weeks.
And by the way, Harris has a .195 career average and .253 OBP against left-handed pitchers, with 53 strikeouts and zero homers in 200 at-bats. He hit .191 in 47 at-bats against lefties last season.
That’s why he’s not an every-day player, and won’t be.
And by the way, some folks have asked mne why the Braves would consider someone like Corey Patterson (yes, they’ve discussed him) for the center-field job, instead of just handing it over to rookie Josh Anderson or one of the prospects, Schafer or fringe prospect Gregor Blanco.
After all, Patterson had only a .269 average with 26 doubles, eight homers and a .304 OBP last season for Baltimore. Couldn’t one of the kids do that, or come close?
Possibly, they could. But when I ran this by Wren, his answer was what I suspected: There’s not a clear-cut best way to make such a decision, but the Braves and other teams have to weigh what an experienced player might produce for them on the field, plus what it might do in terms of allowing a prospect like Schafer continue to get needed seasoning in the minors.
In other words, Patterson might not do appreciably more than Josh Anderson (other than hit about 5-10 more homers), but there’s no way to know that Anderson or Shafer might hit over the full course of a major league season, and there are plenty of cases, hundreds of them, of rookies thrust into the majors too soon, and their development set back by a year or so by their struggles.
No one thinks Schafer’s psyche is too fragile to take a setback, but if they can reduce the chances of him being underprepared for the majors, of him having a season like, for instance, the one Thorman had, then why not let him have at least a half-season or full season in the minors? The kid hasn’t played above A-ball, other than facing some Double-A or so prospects in the Arizona Fall League.
Big difference between that and facing major league pitcher every night. Tremendous difference. It’s why Ellsbury was such a huge story. He’s an exception.
And Anderson is a nice little player, a fourth-outfielder type, but not one who has experienced more than two weeks in a major league lineup, which he had in September. He can run and hit for average, or at least he did in the minors.
But he’s not going to give you pop and it’s not known, with any degree of certainty, whether he can even hit for the .269 and .275 averages that Patterson hit for the past two seasons with Baltimore, not to mention amass the 24 homers and 98 RBIs that Patterson had in 267 games during those two seasons.
That’s why the Braves are still exploring options like Patterson, Chris Duffy and David DeJesus (actually, not DeJesus — Kansas City’s made it pretty clear they’re not looking to trade him, at least not now, and the price would be high anyway).
OK, that was way too long a blog.
Go ahead and kick out the footlights, Mr. Cash:
”DON’T TAKE YOUR GUNS TO TOWN” by Johnny Cash
A young cowboy named Billy Joe grew restless on the farm
A boy filled with wonderlust who really meant no harm
He changed his clothes and shined his boots
And combed his dark hair down
And his mother cried as he walked out
Don’t take your guns to town son
Leave your guns at home Bill
Don’t take your guns to town
He laughed and kissed his mom
And said your Billy Joe’s a man
I can shoot as quick and straight as anybody can
But I wouldn’t shoot without a cause
I’d gun nobody down
But she cried again as he rode away
Don’t take your guns to town son
Leave your guns at home Bill
Don’t take your guns to town
He sang a song as on he rode
His guns hung at his hips
He rode into a cattle town
A smile upon his lips
He stopped and walked into a bar
And laid his money down
But his mother’s words echoed again
Don’t take your guns to town son
Leave your guns at home Bill
Don’t take your guns to town
He drank his first strong liquor then to calm his shaking hand
And tried to tell himself he had become a man
A dusty cowpoke at his side began to laugh him down
And he heard again his mothers words
Don’t take your guns to town son
Leave your guns at home Bill
Don’t take your guns to town
Filled with rage then
Billy Joe reached for his gun to draw
But the stranger drew his gun and fired
Before he even saw
As Billy Joe fell to the floor
The crowd all gathered ‘round
And wondered at his final words
Don’t take your guns to town son
Leave your guns at home Bill
Don’t take your guns to town
