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November 2007
No surprise: No arbitration for Andruw
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Before Frank Wren, Bobby Cox and the rest of the Braves’ party of 15 or so heads off to Nashville on Sunday for the Winter Meetings, the team basically snipped the last thread of hope that even the most optimistic Andruw Jones fans had of having the center fielder back with Atlanta in 2008.
Personally, I thought the Braves had been pretty clear all along that Andruw wasn’t coming back, but until they declined to offer arbitration to him on Friday, I could understand why there were plenty of folks hoping that maybe Andruw would drop agent Scott Boras or the Braves would reconsider or … well, something.
But it ain’t happening, folks. The Braves have been consistent on this point, from the time then-GM (now prez) John Schuerholz said only days after the season ended that the Braves weren’t going to re-sign Andruw and that he didn’t want people reading anything into the fact that they weren’t ready to announce at that time whether they might offer him arbitration.
The only way the Braves would’ve offered arbitration might’ve been if the market that Boras had said existed for Andruw were actually showing any signs of existing. So far, it hasn’t. But let me say, I still believe Boras will get a bigger contract for Jones than most people expect. Just when it looks like Jones will have to settle for a three- or four-year deal worth $10 mill a year, you watch, some team will give him a five-year, $70 million contract.
The Dodgers? The White Sox? Hey, maybe even the Royals. I don’t know, but someone will give him a bigger deal than most folks believe is possible today. If I were a betting man (I’m not), I’d go with Dodger Blue.
Anyway, for those still unclear why Braves wouldn’t offer arbitration to Andruw, while they did offer it to reliever Ron Mahay (those were their only two ranking free agents, since Octavio Dotel didn’t even make the Class B status that Andruw and Mahay made; no need to offer arbitration to Dotel, since they wouldn’t get any draft pick compensation.
First here’s the story I just wrote, then I’ll add something afterward:
By DAVID O’BRIEN
Fans holding out hope of the Braves retaining Andruw Jones got a reality check Friday, when the team declined to offer arbitration to the free-agent center fielder.
The team offered arbitration to left-handed reliever Ron Mahay, assuring the Braves of a “sandwich” draft pick as compensation if they lose Mahay to another team, as the Braves expect.
Teams had until a Saturday deadline to make decisions on arbitration to their former players who became free agents. Jones and Mahay were the Braves’ only two “ranking” free agents, those who would bring draft compensation from any team signing them if the Braves offered arbitration.
Both are Class B free agents. Compensation for that class of players is one sandwich pick created between the first and second rounds. A team that loses a Class A free agent receives a first-round pick from the team that signs him, plus a sandwich pick created between the first and second rounds.
The Braves forfeited their first-round pick in next year’s draft, the No. 18 overall selection, to the New York Mets for signing Tom Glavine, a Class A free agent.
The Braves signed Glavine before the deadline, knowing there was no chance the Mets wouldn’t offer arbitration to the 41-year-old lefty, since his arbitration salary would’ve been lower than the $13 million option he had declined with the Mets. The Braves signed him to a one-year, $8 million deal.
The Braves won’t get anything from the team that signs Jones, a 10-time Gold Glove winner who’s spent his entire career in the Braves organization. He’s had 10 consecutive seasons of at least 25 home runs, but is coming off a career-worst season in which he hit .222 with a .311 on-base percentage.
The Braves announced a week after the season that they weren’t going to re-sign Jones, saying his agent’s initial asking price far exceeded any offer they would have made. They plan to have rookies Josh Anderson, Jordan Schafer and Gregor Blanco compete for the job in spring training if they don’t obtain a more experienced center fielder before then.
The Braves weren’t willing to take the risk of offering arbitration to Jones, whose salary for 2008 could easily have surpassed $15 million through the arbitration process. If the market for his services isn’t as strong as agent Scott Boras anticipates, the Braves said there would be nothing to stop Jones from taking their arbitration offer and drawing a salary that would force them to move other high-salaried players in order to fit him into their payroll.
The Braves expect to lose Mahay, 36, whose free-agent price has risen above the level they are comfortable making an offer. The veteran lefty had a 2.25 ERA in 30 appearances for the Braves after they got him from Texas in the same July 31 trade that brought slugger Mark Teixeira to Atlanta.
OK, back to the blog: Just so we’re clear, Wren told me Andruw could “easily” surpass $15 million in arbitration.
And yes, you better believe that the decision by Boras and Greg Maddux to accept arbitration when the Braves weren’t expecting that a few years ago, had something to do with this decision by the Braves not to offer it.
Maybe if Andruw were a Class A free agent, it’d be a slightly better gamble in the Braves’ eyes. At least then they’d get a first-round draft pick from the team that signed him, plus a sandwich pick.
But as a Class B guy, they’d only get a sandwich pick from a team. And if Andruw decided to accept arbitration, come back and play for $15-16 mill next season in hopes of reestablishing his free-agent value, the Braves would have to make a couple of other moves involving high-salaried players in order to fit him in.
Remember the Kevin Millwood trade they felt compelled to make at the last minute after the Maddux arbitration decision? That worked out OK for the Braves, since Johnny Estrade surpassed expectations. But when it was made, it was a very good starting pitcher being traded for a Triple-A catcher.
And there was one other thing about Andruw: He’s a 10-and-5 guy. If he wasn’t, the Braves could have offered him arbitration at much less risk, because if he’d accepted they could have traded him to San Diego or Los Angeles or another team interested in Andruw, and let that team work out a contract with him.
As a 10-and-5 guy, Andruw could veto any trade the Braves tried to make if they’d offered him arbitration and he took them up on it. Again, not a good risk for a guy who’s only bringing back a sandwich-round draft pick as compensation if another team signs him.
Mahay’s an entirely different case. For one, there are teams lined up to give him two- or three-year contract offers. The Braves really aren’t in the running any longer to re-sign him as a free agent, if they ever were.
So if he, for some reason, took them up on their arbitration offer (again, no reason to believe he would, since his salary would probably be under $2 mill; he’ll get more than that per season in a multi-year deal from another team), if he decided to come back to the Braves and go to arbitration, then even if the salary came in higher than the Braves liked, they could simply trade him to one of the other teams vying for his free-agent services.
Other matters: Wren said the Braves will continue looking for a lefty reliever (he said several are potentially available, probably through trade rather than free agent), plus a backup shortstop/utility man and a more-experienced center fielder than the three prospects/rooks (Josh Anderson, Jordan Schafer, Gregor Blanco) they’ve got now penciled in to compete for the job in spring training.
But again, if they don’t get the CF, they say they’re ready to let those three kids compete for the job because all are solid defensively and Bobby Cox is stressing that their defense is the most important aspect on a team that should get plenty of offense elsewhere….
Oh, and speaking of Schafer, he was named one of the top 22 prospects in the Arizona Fall League, along with a couple of former Braves prospects: SS Elvis Andrus and lefty starting pitcher Matt Harrison. Voters were asked to consider AFL performance and “major league projectability.”
Just one more Glavine note: If you’re tired of reading Glavine notes, I can’t say I blame you. But for those who are interested, here’s one more good note from his press conference the day he signed with the Braves.
(I promise, my notebook is now empty from that press conference, with this final installment of the Glavine Chronicles - hey, the dude’s a great talker, no sense wasting this stuff, right?)
Glavine was asked if he ever “got over” being booed at Turner Field. His reply:
“Yeah, I did. For a long time I didn’t understand it. I was, I guess, angered by it a little bit. But more than anything, I just didn’t understand it. And then I think over time, I just got to the point where I was just kind of indifferent to it.
“I think that most of the people that came to the ballpark and did that don’t know me, don’t know anything about me. And honestly, I don’t think they understood the dynamics that went into why I was no longer here. But you can’t convince people of things sometimes. You can’t change people’s minds sometimes.
“I guess I just learned to live with it over time, and got to the point where all I really focused on was my family, my friends, people that knew me, knew what I was about, and really only concerned myself with what they thought.”
Didn’t he think much of it was because of his union involvement?
“I guess, and I hear that,” Glavine said. “But I mean, that’s 12 years ago. You know, 50 percent of the population is divorced, and we’ve all forgiven our ex-spouses for a whole lot more than being a union rep. I did my job that I was elected to do. I’m not saying I didn’t make any mistakes, but I think anybody who knows me, knows that if I’m asked to do something, I’m gonna do it to the best of my ability. I’m not gonna shy away from it.
“I guess if there’s one mistake that I made during those years as union rep, especially during the strike, it’s that I was too visible. I never backed away from an interview. I never backed away from a request if someone wanted to talk to me. And I guess in hindsight, that’s one of those things that maybe I wouldn’t have done so many interviews. But I guess I looked at it as, it’s my job as player rep, to try and do these things and represent my players. But maybe I did a little too much.”
Cox chimed in that day, when asked whether sentiment had anything to do with signing Glavine:
“Everybody loves Tommy — I know there were a few fans that booed, but you have to understand, too, that Don Fehr wanted the strongest possible player out there, and a smart one, to represent the union at that time. And after 850 players, Tommy was selected, so… A guy like that can be on my side anytime.
“But the bottom line is, we as an organization think Tommy can still pitch to a level that we can win. That is the bottom line. You couldn’t get a better guy than Tommy, for any community, any city, to represent your organization. I’m thrilled with it.”
Catching up with F. Gonzalez: Spent about 5 hours Friday riding motorcycles with a group of guys that included Fredi Gonzalez and Terry Pendleton. I can report to you that Fredi is no worse for wear from a sometimes-difficult season in his first year as Marlins manager.
He and his wife and their two kids still make their year-round home in Marietta (where they just moved into a beautiful home near Lassiter High), even though the Cuban-born Gonzalez actually grew up in Miami. That’s how much he and his family fell in love with the Atlanta area during his time on Cox’s coaching staff.
Anyway, Fredi’s doing good, and Pendleton … well, you folks won’t recognize him in uniform, from the neck down. He’s lost at least 20 pounds since the season ended (I didn’t ask him how much, exactly, but it’s a lot. A lot.)
It was a terrific ride we took up through Canton and Waleska, past Reinhardt College, up a two-lane “blue highway” almost to Adairsville, then over through Ranger, Ga., and Fairmount, past beautiful Carters Lake, down through Jasper, etc.
Pendleton and me peeled off at that point, since we had to get back to Atlanta before the others. I’ve got a Harley Street Bob with an expanded 103 engine, but it was all I could do to keep up with Pendleton on stretches of wide-open highway. The man has a very serious machine — a custom Bourget with a massive fuel-injected 131 cubic-inch Harley engine, and a ginorous back tire that you don’t want to be riding behind too closely if he hits any pebbles.
Fredi also rides a Bourget (the one Brian Jordan gave him as a gift for giving Jordan his old number back a few years ago) and a Harley Road King, which Fredi’s cousin rode today.
Good times. A bit chilly (38 degrees or so) when we took off at 9:30 a.m., but not too bad. And the fall foliage in the hills/mountains was spectacular.
I even got to listen to a little Merle Haggard during the ride - another of Fredi’s buddies was at the front of the line, ahead of me, and this dude’s got a fully dressed Harley Ultra, with a big shield and all that (I’ve got no shield on the Street Bob, thus brrrrr). He’s also got a stereo. We pulled up to a light one time and Hag could be heard above the rumble of that big engine.
With that in mind, take us out, Merle….
“IN THE GOOD OLD DAYS (WHEN THINGS WERE BAD)” by Merle Haggard
We got up before sunup to get the work done up
We’d work in the fields till the sun had gone down
We’ve stood and we’ve cried as we helplessly watched
A hailstorm a beatin’ our crops to the ground
And I’ve gone to bed hungry many nights as a lad
In the good old days when times were bad
I’ve seen daddy’s hands break open and bleed
And I’ve seen him work till he’s stiff as a board
I’ve seen mama lay and suffer in sickness
In need of a doctor we couldn’t afford
Anything at all was more than we had
In the good old days when times were bad
No amount of money could buy from me
The mem’ries that I have of them
No ammount of money could pay me
To go back and live through it again
We’ve got up before we found ice on the floor
Where the wind would blew snow
Through the cracks in the wall
And I’ve walked many miles to an old country school
With my luch in a bag of my overalls
Anything at all was more than we had
In the good old days when times were bad
No ammount of money could buy from me
The mem’ries that I have of them
No ammount of money could pay me
To go back and live through it again
Hampton hurt again; whither Andruw?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
A quick one, before he’s away at the Winter Meetings (OK, that was fairly lame paraphrasing of the The Who’s rockin’ second album title).
If it seems like negotiation wheels are grinding slowly for free agents such as the Braves’ Andruw Jones, Ron Mahay and Octavio Dotel, well, they are. But that could change abruptly Saturday, when the free-agent market really starts to take shape.
Saturday (Dec. 1) is the last day for teams to offer salary arbitration to their former players who became free agents. And unless another suitor is sure a Class A free agent’s former team is going to offer arbitration, there’s not much reason to sign that player before Dec. 1. Jones, Mahay and Dotel aren’t Class A free agents (Dotel isn’t even a Class B), but moves around baseball usually have a trickle-down effect.
Think about it. If you — you being the new team; c’mon work with us here in this example — sign a Class A free agent before Dec. 1, before that player’s former team declines to offer arbitration, then you have to give up a first-rolund draft pick.
And if there’s a reasonable chance you won’t have to give up a pick, well, why wouldn’t you wait until after Dec. 1? (I’ll answer that — you would wait.)
THIS JUST IN: Hampton is hurt … again.
I was just about to file the blog when Frank Wren returned my call from this afternoon. When I asked about Hampton and the report from the Spanish-language website that he’d hurt a leg in his Mexican Winter League debut, Wren confirmed.
Said he had no idea Hampton was hurt when I talked to him (Wren) early Friday morning before my flight to Kansas City. He got a call later that day from Hampton.
Anyway, I’ll just post here my story that I just filed for the paper on this latest ailment for the oft-injured lefty:
By DAVID O’BRIEN
It’s a familiar refrain, this time from south of the border: Mike Hampton is hurt again.
The Braves left-hander injured his right hamstring in the first inning of his first start in the Mexican Winter League last week. He left after one inning, and it’s uncertain if he’ll pitch again this winter.
“We don’t know when he’ll come back [in winter ball], if at all,” Braves general manager Frank Wren said. “There’s only four weeks left in the season, and hamstring injuries usually take a while.”
Hampton, 35, has missed the past two seasons recovering from elbow surgeries on his pitching arm, and the Braves hoped he could make seven starts in Mexico to better gauge the likelihood of having him back in Atlanta’s starting rotation for the 2008 season.
But the injury in Thursday’s start for Navojoa was another reminder of why the Braves say they aren’t counting on Hampton - not like they were counting on him a year ago at this time.
“We’re cautiously optimistic that Mike can bounce back and be a starter,” Wren said. “But it’s simple as this: there’s no guarantees.”
The Braves don’t plan to pursue another starter this winter. They say that even without Hampton, they’d have seven other pitchers vying for their five-man rotation.
John Smoltz, Tim Hudson and Tom Glavine are penciled in at the top. Hampton will have the fourth spot if healthy, and incumbent Chuck James would have competition for the fifth spot from rookies Jo-Jo Reyes and Jair Jurrjens and September surprise Jeff Bennett.
Hampton hurt his right hamstring when he came off the mound to make a play near the end of the first inning Thursday. He tried to keep his leg loose and come back for a second inning, but the pain worsened in warm-ups before the inning, and he left the game.
Wren said Hampton called him Friday and told him the bad news, and the GM was informed by trainers that the muscle had “bled out,” usually a sign of something more than a mild strain.
Hampton is owed $15 million in 2008, the final season of an eight-year, $121 million contract he signed with Colorado. He was traded to Atlanta after the 2002 season in a three-way deal with Florida.
The Braves were responsible for $48.5 million of his salary during 2003-08, but insurance covered part of it the past two seasons. Wren said insurance would again pay part of it again if Hampton is DL’d in 2008.
The Braves have never disclosed how much of Hampton’s salary has been covered by insurance while on the disabled list; the amount was believed to be between 40-60 percent on a prorated basis.
Hampton has had eight stints on the disabled list since being traded to the Braves after the 2002 season. He hasn’t pitched in a game stateside since 2005, when he was 5-3 with a 3.50 ERA in 12 starts before blowing out his elbow and having Tommy John ligament-transplant surgery.
OK, back to the regularly scheduled blog….
Where were we? Oh, explaining why teams wait (or don’t) until Dec. 1 to sign free agents.
The Orange County Angels of Greater Laguna Beach had to know Minnesota would offer Torii Hunter arbitration (there was no way Hunter would’ve accepted a one-year deal with the Twins when he was in position for a huge, multi-year contract on the open market), so the Angels last week pulled the trigger on a five-year, $90 million deal for Hunter.
The Braves had to know the Mets would offer Tom Glavine arbitration — everyone knew Glavine already declined a $13 million option to return to the Mets, so there was no reason for the Mets to think Glavine would accept arbitration, which would’ve resulted in a salary below $13 million. The Mets would’ve loved for him to do that — they wanted him back, and are scrambling now for a replacement.
So instead of waiting for the formality of the Mets offering arbitration on Saturday, the Braves went ahead and signed Glavine last week to a one-year, $8 million contract. By doing so, the Braves gave up their first-round draft pick (No. 18 overall) to the Mets, who also will get a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds for losing Glavine.
Just so we’re clear, since several folks have asked me: You need to understand there was no way, no reason, for the Braves to think the Mets wouldn’t offer him arbitration, and absolutely no reason for the Mets not to offer it, since they wanted Glavine back and since his salary through arbitration would likely have been less than his salary through the option he declined.
Also, Glavine made it pretty clear to those close to him that he wanted to either pitch for the Braves or retire.
Most other significant moves this fall have been trades, with the notable exception of eyebrow-raising free-agent signings of relief pitchers to contracts so large — Scott Linebrink gets four years, $19 million from the White Sox? Oh, my — as to indicate baseball is back full-bore in salary insanity after a brief period in which the sharp annual rise in salaries had slowed a bit.
Again, everyone knew Linebrink would be offered arbitration, since there’s no way a relief pitcher in his situation would accept it and a one-year deal, instead of one of the multi-year, lucrative offers he was sure to receive.
The cases of Jones, Mahay and Dotel are all very different situations.
With Mahay, I’m pretty certain the Braves will offer arbitration, but you never know. Assuming they do, or if someone signs him before Saturday, the Braves will get a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds for losing Mahay, a Class B free agent. But that shouldn’t stop another team from signing him before then, if they wanted to, since they don’t actually give up the pick; rather, it’s created.
However, again this is likey a case of teams waiting to see how the market shapes up.
The Yankees, who are interested, likely know that Mahay’s not going to sign with anyone until the Yankees weigh in with their offer, right? So they’ll wait until after Saturday. At least that’s my read on the situation.
With Andruw and Dotel, I’d say there’s no way the Braves will offer arbitration to either. They don’t want to be stuck with perhaps a $14-16 mill salary for Jones, whose agent, Scott Boras, sent the Braves into scramble mode to meet payroll when he had client Greg Maddux accept arbitration from the Braves years ago, when the Braves thought there was no way the veteran pitcher would do so.
Everyone I’ve talked to believes as I do, that Boras has far overestimated the market for Jones, and that it’s a pipe dream to think the 10-time Gold Glove winner is going to get anywhere near $20 million a year in a long-term contract.
If Boras doesn’t think Jones can get more for Jones than, say, $14 mill per in a four-year contract (just tossing around figures, haven’t heard any proposed offers yet), then what’s to stop Boras from having Andruw accept arbitration?
I know what he’s told me and others about not taking one-year offer for Jones, but if Andruw accepted arbitration, Boras could simply say Andruw made the decision on his own, against Boras’ advice, because Andruw had such love for the Braves and a desire to come back for one more season with Atlanta in hopes of them reconsidering a long-term commitment to him in the future, etc., etc.
But the Braves can hope a team signs him before Saturday, since that would have given Atlanta a sandwich pick between the first and second rounds, the only way they’ll get compensation for Jones without offering him arbitration. They wouldn’t get a first-round pick from the team that signed him before Saturday, because Jones is only a Class B free agent, not a Class A.
(By the way, I know it sounds strange that the 2005 MVP runner-up, a player who hit 92 homers during the 2005-06 seasons and has 10 Gold Gloves, would slip from the Class A ranks, but the latest collective bargaining agreement had revisions to the system and reduced the Class A free agents from the top 30 percent to the top 20 percent. Only the last two seasons are considered for such ranking purposes, so anything Jones did before 2006 doesn’t factor into this matter).
For much the same reason, teams are wise to wait to sign Dotel, who made $5 mill last season. The way the arbitration system is set up, players rarely take significant paycuts and usually get raises. The Braves don’t want to pay anywhere near the potential arbitration price for Dotel to be a setup man.
If I had to bet right now, I’d say Andruw will end up with the Dodgers or White Sox, Dotel with the Mets or Royals. But I’m glad I don’t have to bet.
Couple other matters: We’ll have another blog later in the week to re-address Braves needs heading into the Winter Meetings in Nashville, but those needs should be familiar by now, since GM Frank Wren has stated them clearly.
Left-handed reliever. Utility man who’d be the primary backup shortstop. And a stopgap center fielder with more experience than the three rookies the Braves currently have penciled in to battle for the job: Jordan Schafer, Josh Anderson (acquired from Houston in the Oscar Villarreal trade) and Gregor Blanco.
Again, if they don’t trade for a Coco Crisp or David DeJesus, the Braves say they are prepared to go with one of the three above-mentioned young players, who’ll compete during spring training for the job.
Wren has made it clear the Braves aren’t looking for another starting pitcher, because they believe they have eight capable starters for five spots: John Smoltz, Tim Hudson, Glavine, Hampton (if healthy come April; gigantic “if”), Chuck James, Jo-Jo Reyes, Jair Jurrjens, and Jeff Bennett.
Now, could another starter fall in their lap through an expanded winter-meetings trade? Sure. But I really don’t expect that to happen. I expect the Braves to focus on their center-field and lefty reliever needs.
And judging from what seems like a less-than-aggressive approach regarding Mahay, I think the Braves have likely decided pretty much that his price tag is going to be out of their range. Maybe they’ll get aggressive next week and make him an offer, but I haven’t heard any indications of that yet.
B. Jones, Lillibridge, etc.: Asked Wren about Brandon Jones playing center field in the Mexican Winter League, and the GM said just what I suspected: Means only that that’s where Navajoa had a need. Braves aren’t considered him for center field, at all. “He’s not a center fielder at the upper levels,” Wren said, reiterating that the Braves plan on him remaining a corner outfielder….
Brent Lillibridge still hasn’t played any winter ball because of that wrist tendinitis he had at the end of the season. Wren said they’ll decide in the next week whether he’ll play this winter or just continue to work out and prepare for spring training. I asked about the possibility of the highly rated shortstop prospect being a utility candidate for the major league club, whether that’s something the Braves would consider, or if they believed he’s still at the stage where he needs to be playing every day in the minors rather than serving as a backup on the major league team.
“We’ll have a better sense of that in the spring,” Wren said. “Most anybody would tell you that if a young guy is not going to get a lot of at-bats, he’s better off staying in the minor leagues. But if there’s a way to get him at-bats, maybe you feel differently. In general, I’d tell you it’s better off to play.”
Alright, that turned into a very long blog.
let’s turn things over to The Possum….
“A GOOD YEAR FOR THE ROSES” by Jerry Chestnut (best sung by George Jones)
I can hardly bear the sight of lipstick
On the cigarettes there on the ashtray
Lying all the way you left them
But at least your lips caressed them
While you packed
Or the lip ring on a half filled cup of coffee
That you poured and didn’t drink
But at least you thought you wanted it
That’s so much more than I can say for me
What a good year for the roses
Many blooms still linger there
Lawn could stand another mowing
Funny I don’t even care
As you turned to walk away
As the door behind you closes
The only thing I have to say
It’s been a good year for the roses
After 3 full years of marriage
It’s the first time that you haven’t made the bed
I’ll guess the reason we’re not talking
Is so little left to say we haven’t said
While a million thoughts go racing through my mind
I find I haven’t said a word
From the bedroom the familiar sound
Of young babies crying goes unheard
What a good year for the roses
Many blooms still linger there
Lawn could stand another mowing
Funny I don’t even care
As you turned to walk away
As the door behind you closes
The only thing I have to say
It’s been a good year for the roses
After Glavine, still moves to be made by Braves
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Yes, the Braves still have concerns, including the glaring hole in center, the lack of a proven lefty reliever, and a starting rotation that has a potential pool of eight quality pitchers to choose from, but more than half of whom are either over 40 (John Smoltz, Tom Glavine), have 10 or fewer big-league starts (Jo-Jo Reyes, Jair Jurrjens), or missed the past two seasons (Mike Hampton).
That said, Braves players I’ve spoken with, as well as a few players and officials from other teams, are in agreement: The Braves and new GM Frank Wren have been aggressive, proactive, and sensible with their early moves.
The latest was the long-anticipated signing of Glavine to a one-year, $8 million contract. Not bad for a 303-game winner and future Hall of Famer who has won at least 13 games in 17 of the past 19 seasons, and pitched at least 198 innings in 12 of 13 seasons. Even if he will be 42 in March.
Glavine conceded at his Monday press conference that he’s not a No. 1 pitcher anymore, though he can still pitch that way some nights. He was brutally honest and said he’s not a $13 million pitcher (the option he declined with the Mets) and didn’t want the pressure of that price tag every time he went to the mound.
But that’s fine with the Braves, who got him to be a No. 3 starter who can pitch close to 200 innings, something that only two Braves starters (aces Smoltz and Tim Hudson) did last season. No other Brave was even close.
His $8 mill price tag is $2 mill below what old friend Greg Maddux got to re-sign with San Diego (Maddux is 41 and was 29-25 with a 4.17 ERA in 408 innings over the past two seaons; Glavine is 41 and was 28-15 with a 4.13 ERA in 398-1/3 innings over the past two seasons).
They both seem like bargains compared to, say, ex-Brave Jason Marquis, who got a three-year, $21 million contract with the Cubs before last season, after going 14-16 with a 6.02 ERA for St. Louis in 2006 and being left off the Cardinals’ playoff roster. Marquis went 12-9 with a 4.60 ERA in 191-2/3 innings in 2007.
Or how ‘bout Joel Pineiro, who just re-upped with St. Louis for three years and $13 mill. This for a starter who won 30 games (30-18) during 2002-03 for Seattle, but is 28-40 with a 5.39 ERA since then.
In the past two seasons, Pineiro is 15-18 with a 5.61 ERA, with a .301 opp avg and 37 homers allowed in 263-1/3 innings. Now three more years, $13 million.
Smoltz reaction: I got a call back from Smoltz a little too late Monday to get his quotes in my Glavine-signing story, so I’ll give them to you here. As you might expect, he was thrilled to get his old buddy back on the team — and not because it gives Smoltz another worthy golf partner.
“This is about as good as it gets for me, as far as what it means to the Atlanta Braves oreganization and what he’s meant to me, being able to work with him,” Smoltz said.
“It’s neat — that’s not the best word to use, but I don’t want to sound like I’m going overboard — it’s neat to have this happen. It’s great for the organization.”
Considering the tight budgets of recent years, the animosity over previous negotiations between Glavine, his agent and the Braves, and the failed pursuit of Glavine a year ago, was Smoltz surprised that this got done?
“I’ve got to be a little bit surprised, because you never know how things are going to work,” he said. “A lot of things contributed to it happening.”
Smoltz said that Glavine makes sense on a lot of levels for these Braves.
“Leaving me out of it,” Smoltz said, “he means a lot to these young left-handers that we have. He means a lot to the bullpen. You know you’re going to get starts out of this guy. You know he’s going to cover games.”
With the uncertainty surrounding Hampton’s health, and Smoltz’s own age, he has said he wants the Braves to have, in effect, a six-man rotation, including a long reliever capable of making spot starts when others need to skip a start.
“That’s what the mindset’s got to be, with a six-man rotation, with Hampton,” Smoltz said. “[Glavine] gives us experience, a little more comfort. It allows Chuck James to not deal with so much pressure, and also allows him to pick Tommy’s brain…. This does so many things for us.
“I know some people are just going to be focused on the wins and losses, and whether it was a PR move. I’m telling you, this is a big step toward us reaching our goals.
“Nothing’s a given; I’m not a given.”
Then Smoltz paused and said in a proud tone, “But one thing you know: the three of us are still pitching.”
He meant him, Glavine and Maddux.
The Braves have already made significant moves well before the Winter Meetings, including trading Edgar Renteria to Detroit for a young center-field prospect and starting prospect Jurrjens, trading reliever Oscar Villarreal for rookie center fielder Josh Anderson and signing Glavine.
“This is the best time to do it, best time to set your team,” Smoltz said. “Given some options, and given the fact that there are some very good pieces here already, we’ve now got to make it happen where we’re addressing some of those needs. It’s not easy - it’s not like picking apples off a tree — but it’s a lot easier to do it now than in July or August.”
Braves president Terry McGuirkhas said more than once this offseason that payroll will rise and the Braves now have the money to make moves.
“I’ve been very encouraged [by McGuirk’s comments],” Smoltz said. “Sometimes as a player or a fan — sometimes we’re both — you never know what you’re going to have to work with. I think every team’s looking for that one name that takes you go from a pretender to a contender. That doesn’t always happen, but if you get a couple of those pieces, you go hmmm…. That’s where we’re headed. We’re getting close to that.
“We lost two great players in Edgar Renteria and Andruw Jones. We’re probably never going to replace Andruw Jones….
“[But] there’s tremendous upside for Mike Hampton. And now with Tom Glavine — to have that depth gives you … tough decisions to make. If we have to make tough decisions, that’s a luxury, rather than the alternative.”
About that Glavine finish: Much has been made of Glavine’s final few starts for the Mets — which were no doubt dreadful, especially the last two.
He was 8-1 with a 3.20 ERA over his 18-start stretch directly before those last three games, in which he was 0-2 with a 14.81 ERA. He allowed 13 runs in 5-1/3 innings in his final two starts, and recorded only out in the last one.
Like I said, bad.
But a couple of other big-name pitchers struggled down the stretch, and no one one would suggest their arms are shot, their careers over. No one has said their end-of-season stumbles were indicative of anything other than, they ran out of gas at the end of the season.
Johan Santana, arguably the best pitcher in our sport, was 1-4 with a 5.11 ERA in his final six starts, with one quality start in that stretch.
Maddux was 2-2 with a 9.00 ERA and .413 opponents’ average in his last four starts, while allowing 31 hits and 17 runs in 17 innings, including starts of 3 innings and 3-1/3 innings.
Hey, Glavine was really bad in those last two starts. Beyond bad in the last one. But he said he wasn’t hurt, and Braves doctors who examined him last week said his arm and overall health were excellent.
It’s not as if he ever relied on 95-mph heat to be successful.
Glavine on Cox: Someone asked Glavine at the press conference about playing again for manager Bobby Cox. I’ll just run his answer verbatim.
“It’s great; I have a ton of respect for Bobby,” Glavine said. “I always have. He’s been the single greatest influence on my career. I’ve learned a lot from Bobby — how to play the game, how to respect the game, how to respect your team and the uniform you wear, how to go out there every day and just compete, go out there with an idea of what you’re trying to do and try your best to do it. And if you don’t, then get ready to do it again the next day and start over.
“Bobby’s reputation and Bobby’s character speaks for itself. Ask anybody who’s played for him and they’ll tell you. You’re not going to have everybody love you, but you’d be hard-pressed to find anybody in the game who’s played for Bobby that didn’t love playing for him.
“If there was one question I got repeatedly the last five years in New York, it was, ‘What’s it like playing for Bobby?’ It’s not something you can answer in a minute. It takes a while.
“He has an uncanny ability to get the best out of players, whether they’re young guys or kind of reclamation projects, he has a great ability to put guys in position to succeed. We’ve all seen it, year after year, guys come in here who you’re not quite sure what you’re going to get out of them, and when all’s said and done you get good years out of those guys. Most of that is Bobby.”
One question, and that was the response.
Whither Andruw? I don’t know where Andruw’s gonna end up, since I believed the Angels were a good bet to make him a big offer. Texas makes some sense, and the Chicago White Sox wanted to trade for him a few years ago. So maybe they’ll be a suitor.
I can tell you, everything I’ve heard is that the Braves will not be, that he’s not coming back, regardless of speculation by many who wonder if Jones might go around the lightning-rod agent Scott Boras’ back again and come back for a reduced one-year contract.
No, I’m told. Not gonna happen. Period.
Can’t tell you if the Braves will acquire another center fielder - DeJesus, Crisp, etc. - or if they’ll go with what they have and make it a three-way battle for the job among kids Jordan Schafer, Josh Anderson and Gregor Blanco.
But I will guarantee you that the Braves are going to miss Andruw Jones’ offense. Yes, offense. He was bad last season, hitting a career-low .222. Terrible average. Just awful.
And this after hitting .261, .263 and .262 over the previous three seasons. Not good.
In 257 games since June 3, 2006, Andruw has hit a dreadful .232 with a .333 OBP. Repeating, he’s hit .232 in his past 257 games, or 937 at-bats.
That said, the Braves are going to miss his run production a lot more than some people seem to believe. I keep reading folks here say things like, ‘How much worse can Schafer be, or Blanco, or whoever, if they hit .230 they’ll still be better than Andruw.’
No.
Because despite hitting .232 in those past 257 games, Andruw also had 53 homers, 154 runs and 171 RBIs in that stretch.
Granted, he might have had 210 RBIs if he’d hit for a decent average with runners in scoring position in that period. But the point remains, he had 53 homers and 171 RBIs since June 3, 2006, during a stretch in which his average was flat-out awful.
For some comparison, here’s what a few other outfielders have hit since June 3, 2006:
Torii Hunter: .286 average (.336 OBP) with 146 runs, 50 homers, 171 RBIs in 253 games.
Vernon Wells: .264 average (.321 OBP) with 144 runs, 33 homers, 143 RBIs in 253 games.
Coco Crisp: .263 average (.321 OBP) with 132 runs, 13 homers, 93 RBIs in 240 games.
And J.D. Drew (hey, we’re just having some fun here): .277 average (.384 OBP) with 140 runs, 22 homers, 124 RBIs in 238 games.
Yes, he’s often a mess at the plate. But Andruw still, somehow, piled up some pretty solid run-production numbers.
Alright, take us out Mr. Zimmerman….
”TANGLED UP IN BLUE” by Bob Dylan
Early one mornin’ the sun was shinin’,
I was layin’ in bed
Wonderin’ if she’d changed at all
If her hair was still red.
Her folks they said our lives together
Sure was gonna be rough
They never did like Mama’s homemade dress
Papa’s bankbook wasn’t big enough.
And I was standin’ on the side of the road
Rain fallin’ on my shoes
Heading out for the East Coast
Lord knows I’ve paid some dues gettin’ through,
Tangled up in blue.
She was married when we first met
Soon to be divorced
I helped her out of a jam, I guess,
But I used a little too much force.
We drove that car as far as we could
Abandoned it out West
Split up on a dark sad night
Both agreeing it was best.
She turned around to look at me
As I was walkin’ away
I heard her say over my shoulder,
“We’ll meet again someday on the avenue,”
Tangled up in blue.
I had a job in the great north woods
Working as a cook for a spell
But I never did like it all that much
And one day the ax just fell.
So I drifted down to New Orleans
Where I happened to be employed
Workin’ for a while on a fishin’ boat
Right outside of Delacroix.
But all the while I was alone
The past was close behind,
I seen a lot of women
But she never escaped my mind, and I just grew
Tangled up in blue.
She was workin’ in a topless place
And I stopped in for a beer,
I just kept lookin’ at the side of her face
In the spotlight so clear.
And later on as the crowd thinned out
I’s just about to do the same,
She was standing there in back of my chair
Said to me, “Don’t I know your name?”
I muttered somethin’ underneath my breath,
She studied the lines on my face.
I must admit I felt a little uneasy
When she bent down to tie the laces of my shoe,
Tangled up in blue.
She lit a burner on the stove and offered me a pipe
“I thought you’d never say hello,” she said
“You look like the silent type.”
Then she opened up a book of poems
And handed it to me
Written by an Italian poet
From the thirteenth century.
And every one of them words rang true
And glowed like burnin’ coal
Pourin’ off of every page
Like it was written in my soul from me to you,
Tangled up in blue.
I lived with them on Montague Street
In a basement down the stairs,
There was music in the cafes at night
And revolution in the air.
Then he started into dealing with slaves
And something inside of him died.
She had to sell everything she owned
And froze up inside.
And when finally the bottom fell out
I became withdrawn,
The only thing I knew how to do
Was to keep on keepin’ on like a bird that flew,
Tangled up in blue.
So now I’m goin’ back again,
I got to get to her somehow.
All the people we used to know
They’re an illusion to me now.
Some are mathematicians
Some are carpenter’s wives.
Don’t know how it all got started,
I don’t know what they’re doin’ with their lives.
But me, I’m still on the road
Headin’ for another joint
We always did feel the same,
We just saw it from a different point of view,
Tangled up in blue.
Glavine’s back, and Cox is thrilled
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Just got off the phone with Bobby Cox, and as you might imagine, the old manager is quite pleased to be headed down to Turner Field this afternoon to welcome Tom Glavine back to the Braves.
“I’m very excited,” Bobby said as he hurried to finish errands and get to the ballpark for the 2:30 p.m. press conference with Glavine. “Tommy’s going to be a tremendous addition. He’s just one of those class pitchers who can win, who doesn’t miss turns, who’s ready to go all the time.
“He’s a guy you can rely on all the time. I think Tommy’s got a lot of pitching left in him, and now that he’s back in Atlanta he might consider going another year [after 2008].”
The word reliable keeps coming up when you ask anyone connected with the Braves about Glavine and why it was important that they bring back the soon-to-be 42-year-old lefty, who signed a one-year, $8 million contract after declining a $13 million option with the Mets.
The 303-game winner has pitched at least 198 innings in 12 of the past 13 seasons, including 200-1/3 innings last season when he went 13-8 with a 4.45 ERA in his fifth season with the Mets.
It’s not a stretch to say that if Glavine had produced those kinds of numbers for the Braves last season, they would have made it to the postseason instead of sitting at home for the second consecutive October.
Because while the Braves got 30 wins and 430 innings out of John Smoltz and Tim Hudson at the top of their rotation, Chuck James (11-10, 161-1/3 innings) was the only other starter to produce more than eight wins or as many as 105 innings. And after James, Buddy Carlyle (8-7, 104 innings in 20 starts) was the only other Braves starter to record as many as five wins or 90 innings.
“It’s extremely important that your starters give you innings,” Cox told me. “Tommy can do that. Now we have depth. Last spring we were down to the bare minimum of starters. Now we probably nine legit guys who can go into the rotation and do fine. Tommy allows us to do that.”
Many observers have pointed to Glavine’s final three starts for the Mets as a red flag, a sign that the aging lefty was/is out of bullets.
There’s no doubt he was bad — very bad — in those starts, going 0-2 with a 14.81 ERA while allowing 25 hits (four homers) and 17 runs in 10-1/3 innings, including seven runs with just one out on the final day of the season, a loss to the Marlins that completed the Mets’ epic 5-12 collapse and knocked them out of the postseason after they’d led the division almost from start to finish.
But it would be highly unusual for a pitcher’s career, his effectiveness, to end so suddenly without an injury as the cause, and Glavine has passed a physical and been adamant about having nothing wrong physically, no injury at the root of his struggles down the stretch. To his credit, he said he just stunk in those games.
Was he out of gas? I’m sure he was. And he might run out of gas at the 185-190 inning mark again in the 2008 season. But if Glavine gives the Braves 13-15 wins and 185 good innings, that would be a huge improvement over what they had in the No. 3, No. 4 or No. 5 rotation spots last season.
The effect on the bullpen and the team would be a major plus, because last season the weary bullpen had stretches when key relievers were simply too overworked and went through rough stretches because of it.
The only NL teams with fewer innings from starters than the Braves were the Cardinals, Nationals and Marlins, all teams whose injury-riddled rotations undermined their overall team performance.
To say Glavine is finished, to suggest he’s no longer effective based simply on his struggles in the last three starts, is to be blinded by his and the Mets’ woeful finish and avoid the body of work that Glavine produced over the course of the season. It’s not a very reasonable or astute to simply dismiss everything that came before those starts, to suggest that Glavine was a different pitcher then than he’ll be now.
Bottom line is this: Before those last three starts, Tom Glavine was 13-6 with a 3.88 ERA and 23 quality starts in 31 games, while averaging nearly 6-1/3 innings per start. In half of those six losses, the Mets scored zero runs while he was in the game.
Glavine was saddled with back-to-back losses in June when he allowed two runs in six innings against the Braves and Smoltz in Atlanta, and when he allowd three runs in seven innings against the Giants.
Was he bad in those last three starts? Yes, dreadful. But here’s what Glavine did in the 16 starts immediately before those three: Went 8-1 with a 3.20 ERA and 13 quality starts - again, that’s in the 16 games before those last three.
Is the same Glavine who won 242 games, two Cy Young Awards and a World Series MVP trophy as a Brave? No, and Glavine would be the first to tell you that.
But is he a quality pitcher, and could he be one of the best No. 3 starters in baseball? Absolutely.
Can he be a great influence on lefties Jo-Jo Reyes and Chuck James? Absolutely. Ask Damian Moss how much Glavine helped the Aussie lefty when he was a Brave, and how much Moss missed him after they were no longer teammates.
“Tremendous influence,” Cox said. “Tommy always has been that kind of guy.”
Glavine initially struggled after he left the Braves and joined the Mets in 2003, and no team beat him up like the Braves did. But he made adjustments midway through the 2005 season, finally relenting and acknowledging he could no longer get by with his changeups and pitching away, away, away.
After going 24-35 with a 4.21 ERA in his first 80 starts for the Mets through June 19, 2005, Glavine reinvented himself to a significant degree and went 37-21 with a 3.74 ERA in his last 84 starts. The Mets were 52-32 in those games. Yes, that includes those last three Glavine starts.
Glavine’s back, and the Braves and their manager are thrilled. If he’s got as much left in the tank as Cox believes, it could be a fun summer for Glavine, for his good friend and golf partner Smoltz, and for the Braves and their fans.
And if he doesn’t? Well, we can always throw on some classic Elvis Costello:
“PEACE, LOVE AND UNDERSTANDING” by Nick Lowe
As I walk through
This wicked world
Searchin’ for light in the darkness of insanity.
I ask myself
Is all hope lost?
Is there only pain and hatred, and misery?
And each time I feel like this inside,
There’s one thing I wanna know:
What’s so funny ‘bout peace love & understanding? Ohhhh…
What’s so funny ‘bout peace love & understanding?
And as I walked on
Through troubled times
My spirit gets so downhearted sometimes
So where are the strong
And who are the trusted?
And where is the harmony?
Sweet harmony.
‘Cause each time I feel it slippin’ away, just makes me wanna cry.
What’s so funny ‘bout peace love & understanding? Ohhhh…
What’s so funny ‘bout peace love & understanding?
So where are the strong?
And who are the trusted?
And where is the harmony?
Sweet harmony.
‘Cause each time I feel it slippin’ away, just makes me wanna cry.
What’s so funny ‘bout peace love & understanding? Ohhhh…
What’s so funny ‘bout peace love & understanding? Ohhhh…
What’s so funny ‘bout peace love & understanding?
Waiting for Glavine; is this the new CF?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Biding time while we wait for the inevitable announcement that Tom Glavine has signed with the Braves (they made their first offer today), debate whether my little ol’ Kansas Jayhawks could win two or three games in the SEC, question whether Barry Bonds or Michael Vick received the worst counsel/advice over the years, and ponder why Braves prospect (and Oregon quarterback) Dennis Dixon wears football pants that don’t cover his knees, much less have pads to protect those bony and extremely valuable joints.
But before we get to any of that, let me tell you about Chipper Jones and what I believe to be a very good chance he’ll sign an extension with the Braves at some point in the next year or so to virtually assure he finishes his career with the same team he began it with.
Jones, 35, is under contract for $11 mill in 2008 with a vesting option for 2009 worth between $8 mill and $11 mill, based on plate appearances. I don’t have exact breakdown on the scale, but if he stays even reasonably healthy the option will vest. In other words, he’s probably a Braves for at least two more seasons.
“Right now I’m pretty much counting on [the option vesting],” he told me a week ago.
Jones has indicated he’d like to play as long as he’s able to perform at a high level, which he certainly did last season, despite time on the DL for hand injuries sustained in a freak collision while running the bases.
The switch-hitter batted .337 with 42 doubles, 29 homers, 102 RBIs and a robust 1.029 OPS in 135 games and 513 at-bats, including .378 with 22 homers, 74 RBIs and a 1.171 OPS in 312 at-bats vs. righties.
Now, about his contract and future with the Braves. I asked him a week ago if he’d talked to the Braves about an extension, or even thought of bringing it up with the team.
“I don’t know how I would handle that,” he said. “I’ve never had to really go to the Braves before. They’ve always approached me. Maybe with my age and the health issues, they’re maybe waiting until they absolutely have to do something.”
But that’s understandable, he said. In other words, don’t expect him to demand an extension this winter and cause any waves.
“Doesn’t really matter to me, either way something will get done,” Jones said.
General manager Frank Wren, when asked about a possible extension for Chipper, said during the GM’s online chat Thursday: “We have Chipper for a couple more years and we hope he finishes his career here.”
It’s Friday afternoon and I can’t tell you whether a Glavine signing will happen this afternoon, next week, or between Thanksgiving and the Winter Meetings Dec. 3-6 in Nashville.
But I am fairly certain it will happen before the meetings begin in Music City. They’d better, or else we’ll have to spend too much time waiting around at night instead of going over to Robert’s Western Wear for some boots and hard country music.
But anyway … the question on everyone’s minds is, who is going to be the Braves’ backup shortstop? OK, perhaps it’s not on everyone’s minds. Perhaps it’s on very few people’s minds, relatively speaking. But somewhere, in the back of most Braves’ fans brains, behind the space reserved for love or hate of Glavine (greatest Atlanta lefty and World Series hero to many Braves fans; intelligent, fund-raising family man to many who know him; evil, money-grubbing union rep in the eyes of some; and frustrating sum of those parts for still others).
(By the way, I personally like Tom a lot, and believe he’ll be a strong addition in the No. 3 rotation spot and good influence on the young pitchers, particularly the young lefties. But - and I mean this — I also understand why there’s such a wide gulf in Braves Nation’s view of him. I don’t necessarily agree with those on the other side of that split, but I understand their view. When it comes to union matters, and/or making certain statements that offend middle-class folks, well, that can become a cross to bear, one Tom will never completely shed.)
But back to the backup shortstop. Who’ll it be? Well, I can say with near absolutely certainty that it won’t be Chris Woodward. How’s that? But seriously, we’re still so early in the free agency timeline, and so few trades have been made, that the lesser needs of most teams haven’t been addressed yet and won’t be until those teams take care of more important matters and see how much money is left over or who is still available after the more sought-after players are paid handsomely.
Maybe the Braves will fill the backup shortstop need before the Winter Meetings, but I doubt it. More likely they’ll do that later, as they did last year with the late signings of Woodward and (readers, cover your eyes if you’re faint-hearted) Craig Wilson.
First on the docket, at least in terms of important, is the Glavine matter and center field, with left-handed relief probably ranking behind that, ahead of backup shortstop. Besides, with young, sturdy Yunel Escobar moving into the shortstop role, I’m sure the Braves are hoping they won’t need a backup shortstop very often at all. Can’t count on that, of course, but should be able to expect him to play the vast majority of games.
Center field: Braves have been looking at several possibilities to serve as their stopgap center fielder, there are no Ken Griffeys or Aaron Rowands among them. Certainly no Torri Hunters.
No, they’re going to probably get their man on the trade market, most likely a younger player with some CF experience, a low salary and no long-term commitment. That commitment part (and the salary matter) would seem to rule out Coco Crisp, who’s signed for $4.75 million next season and $5.75 million in 2009, with a team option for $8 million in 2010.
Braves are looking for a guy to be the bridge from Andruw Jones to Jordan Schafer, who could be ready by midseason, but might also be better served by another full season in the minors, since he’s not played above A-ball. But the Braves privately anticipate him being ready no later than some point during the 2009 season, and will be willing to bring him up sooner in the event of an injury or poor performance from the man who gets the CF job to start next season.
Is there any chance that Schafer could persuade them to give him a crack at the job this spring? I suppose, if the Braves can’t get a quality CF this winter or the one they get stinks it up or gets hurt in spring training. But I think it’s an outside shot, at best, that Schafer opens the season on the roster.
This will probably be like the Renteria trade, or so many others the Braves have pulled over the years - one that few if any had suspected before it was announced.
THIS JUST IN: As I was literally about to post this blog, Braves announced they’ve trade reliever Oscar Villarreal to Houston for outfielder Josh Anderson.
Just talked to Frank right after the release came out, and he made it clear to me that this kid will compete for the center-field job, but isn’t necessarily “the” replacement. Braves wanted to get him now in case they can’t acquire another, more experienced guy this winter.
Again, this guy will compete for the job, and I’d guess he would be the favorite unless the Braves get another center fielder this winter.
From the Braves’ press release on the dude: Anderson, 25, hit .358 (24-for-67) in 25 games for the Astros this year. He spent the majority of the season at Triple-A Round Rock, where he played all three outfield positions and batted .273 (140-for-513) with 17 doubles and 64 runs scored. He ranked third in the Pacific Coast League with 41 stolen bases.
The left-handed hitter was the MVP of the 2006 Texas League All-Star game and in that same year he led the league for the second consecutive season in stolen bases and ranked first with 173 hits. In 2004 Anderson led all of minor league baseball with 78 stolen bases and in 2005 he was rated as the best defensive outfielder and the fastest base runner by Baseball America.
So there. Dude can fly. And hit for average, though not for a lick of power. And unlike, say, Gregor Blanco, this guy’s done it, albeit briefly, at the major league level.
OK, now back to the regularly scheduled blog:
Lefty in ‘pen: Braves have talked to Ron Mahay’s agent, and at least looked into Colorado free agent Jeremy Affeldt, too. But I think both of those guys, the only two accomplished lefty relievers on the free-agent market, are going to end up getting far bigger deals than Braves are looking to spend (Braves have Royce Ring, but want two lefties in the bully).
Maybe I’ll be wrong and Mahay will stay with the Braves, since he told me at the end of the season that he liked his two-month stint with the team. But again, money talks, and he’s going to get a lot, perhaps in a three-year contract from some team. That’s a big commitment for a mid-30s reliever who’s had some health issues in the past.
Nice rumor, “7Sports”: When you’re a Boston TV station and you start a rumor about a high-profile and very popular member of the World Series champion Red Sox, it’s probably best if you’re reasonably accurate in the details. Or even half-right.
The early candidate for Most Ridiculous Rumor (non fan blog-generated category) goes to Channel 7 of Boston, which breathlessly reported a couple days ago: “7Sports has learned that Mike Lowell has received contract offers from four separate MLB teams: the Braves, Angels, Cardinals, and Yankees. A source close to the Lowell side of the negotiations tells 7Sports that each offer is a 4-year contract, worth between $55-60 million.”
Within 24 hours, executives with the Braves, Angels and Cardinals had shot down the rumor and said there was absolutely no validity to it, in regards to their own teams.
But hey, at least the Yankees supposedly made an offer for Lowell. One out of four ain’t too bad, right?
Actually, that’s about right, because in the internet age, I’d guess about 25 percent of the rumors you read have any validity, particularly if they come from folks who don’t cover the team on a regular basis and rely solely on one unnamed source.
OK, take us out, Steve:
“THE GRINGO’S TALE” by Steve Earle
Beggin’ your pardon there stranger
You look like you’re new to this town
We’re a long way away from the beach here
You won’t see many gringos around
Well I come from West Colorado
And I’ve wandered this world far and wide
I’ve lived for some years in the shadows
And my eyes are unused to this light
If you buy me a strong drink of whiskey
I will tell you the tale of my life
It’s long and it’s sad but it fits me
And it may bring a tear to your eye
All the men of my family were soldiers
The hard fightin’ straight talkin’ kind
When my turn came all that was over
But I’d already made up my mind
I was there when we blew though Grenada
And I still have to ask myself why
Then we took down that fool Noriega
That’s where I caught the good colonel’s eye
Well he asked me if I loved my country
And before I had time to reply
He regaled me with tales of past glories
I believed every one of his lies
So I left my old life behind me
Turned my back on my family and friends
And I did everything that they asked me And I lost some sleep now and again
And I lived like a thief and assassin
I smuggled their poisons sometimes
Until I asked the wrong question in passin’
And the colonel himself dropped the dime
So if you’re ever in west Colorado
Tell the folks in Durango goodbye
There’s a price on my head and I can’t go
So I’ll just wait around here ‘til I die
Cox, Wren on hand to see Braves in Arizona
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
I came to see Jordan Schafer play for the Peoria Javelinas tonight here in Surprise, Ariz., and it turns out — surprise, indeed — I’ll get to see several other Braves prospects including a hard-throwing right-hander in his fifth Arizona Fall League start, a big up-and-comer who won’t be unknown to most fans much longer.
Charlie Morton isn’t ranked among the Braves’ Top 10 prospects (Schafer is No. 1 in that just-released Baseball America list), but that’s because the 6-foot-5 pitcher has come on so recently.
He’s a quickly rising talent who’ll soon be added to the 40-man roster, GM Frank Wren told me today. (Frank also said he was assured all the Braves position guys on the Javelinas were going to play tonight, including Schafer, catcher Clint Sammons, SS Brandon Hicks, and 2B J.C. Holt. Yes, Braves starting at five spots).
Morton’s numbers last year at Double-A Mis’sip didn’t exactly jump off the page — he was 4-6 with a 4.29 ERA in 41 games, including six starts. He had 67 strikeouts in 79-2/3 innings, with 37 walks and 80 hits allowed.
But look inside the about-to-turn 24-year-old’s splits and you see why folks took notice late in the season. His WHIP came down steadily, from 1.92 in April to 1.56 in July and 1.31 in August. He went from recording 20 strikeouts with 17 walks in 24-2/3 innings during April-May to 27 strikeouts with 10 walks in 29 innings during July-August.
In the AFL, before tonight he’s 3-1 with a 3.48 ERA in five games (four starts), with 14 strikeouts and six walks in 16 innings.
Morton has a fastball that reaches 96-97 mph, along with three other pitches that are said to be average to above-average: curveball, slider and change.
He’s a former third-round pick (2002) who had fallen off the radar while going 12-18 over his first two minor league seasons in A-Ball, and posting ERAs of 4.82, 5.20 and 5.40 in his first three seasons. This (2007) was his fourth.
Hey, some prospects take a while. Sometimes things just start to click for guys when no one’s expecting it. Sounds like that’s the case with this kid.
A pitcher might find a comfortable arm slot, develop confidence, or just “figure it out,” for lack of a better explanation. According to Wren, this kid’s been soaring since midseason, and carried it into the Double-A postseason.
I’m eager to see for myself tonight, almost as eager as I am to see Schafer in center field (when I went to the Javelinas’ game Saturday, he DH’d and went 2-for-5 with three strikeouts, a single and a triple).
Despite going through a recent hitting funk for several games, Schafer is still batting .345 (30-for-87) with a .420 OBP in 22 games, with six doubles, a triple a home run and 13 RBIs. He also has nine stolen bases in 11 attempts, including one in Saturday’s game (I can attest, the kid’s got very good speed).
Don’t know what you’ve seen him listed at, but Schafer said he’s 202 pounds right now, hopes to be up to 205-210 for spring training — and hopes to be in big league camp. I think there’s a very good chance that he will be invited, though he’s not on the 40-man roster and doesn’t have to be added.
Morton does have to be added or be exposed to the Rule 5 draft, where he’d be snatched in a heartbeat, with that kind of stuff he’s got. But it doesn’t sound like he’ll be a candidate for the rotation in the spring (Braves already have prospects Jair Jurrjens and Jo-Jo Reyes to compete along with returners Chuck James and several others for perhaps only one spot, if they sign Tom Glavine as expected and if Mike Hampton — I know, big “if” — can stay healthy through spring).
But it’s worth making a note about Morton now, keep him in mind. He could certainly be ready at some point this season if his recent progress continue, either in the rotation or the bullpen. He’s also another reason the Braves could use one of their younger pitchers in a possible trade this winter or spring.
Who is Sung Ki Jung? Glad you asked. He’s a Braves pitching prospect who spent three years in mandatory service with the South Korean Army before pitching for high-A Myrtle Beach and Double-A Miss this past season.
In 40 appearances, all he did was post a 1.30 ERA with 23 saves, 57 strikeouts, 13 walks and 31 hits (two homers) allowed in 48-1/3 innings. Yowza.
Something tells me the South Korean Army let him throw a little on the side over the past three seasons.
Might be a bullpen candidate, if not this spring then during the season. Also looking forward to him possibly getting into the game tonight, since Wren described his delivery as “funky” but left it at that. Anyone out there see him pitch this season? If so, what’s the funk?
Glavine open for business today: Tuesday (Nov. 13) is the first day teams other than the Mets can make offers for Tom Glavine, but it’s hard to find anyone in baseball who believes the old lefty ace will be signing with anyone other than the Braves.
That said, I’m hearing it might not get done for a couple of weeks. Which I can believe, since Glavine might want to at least see what the market is, what teams like Washington might offer him, before deciding how much of a “discount”
Mahay drawing plenty of interest: The Braves hope to re-sign free agent lefty Ron Mahay, but the reliever is getting plenty of interest from other teams, as could be expected given his status as one of the top two available lefties (along with Jeremy Affeldt) after J.C. Romero re-signed with Philly (for three years and a whopping $12 mill).
Agent Lonnie Cooper - he also represents John Smoltz and power-hitting prospect Jason Heyward, who’s No. 2 on the Braves BA list behind Schafer — told me he’s talked preliminarily with Wren and a lot of other teams.
The Braves knew there was no reason to make a low offer to Mahay during their exclusive 15-day negotiating period before other teams could make him offers starting today, and at the same time I’d guess the Braves probably don’t want to pay anywhere near what Romero got from the Phillies.
When I asked Lonnie if the Romero contract “set the market” for lefty relievers, he said, “If you look at comparision of stats, you’ll see there’s a big comparison between the two. [That contract] was a good, comparable statement.”
To which the Braves might be thinking, “Uh-oh.”
I don’t know if Braves will be willing to pay Mahay enough, but I wouldn’t assume that Mahay will get the kind of contract Romero did. In many ways, Romero is a special case, for the Phillies in particular but also for most any team in general (well, except maybe the Red Sox, who released him in June).
It’s important to note that Romero has a tremendous 435 appearances in six seasons as a major league reliever, with 65 or more appearances every year and highs of 81 and 74 appearances (twice, including this season).
Mahay, 36, didn’t in as many as 30 appearances in any of his first six seasons, and didn’t have more than 35 until appearing in 60 games in his 2004, when he had a 2.55 ERA and 1.328 WHIP for Texas.
After getting knocked around for a 6.81 ERA and 1.766 WHIP in 2005, Mahay made 58 and 62 apperances the past two seasons while posting ERAs of 3.95 in 2006 and 2.55 in 2007, including a 2.25 ERA and 1.250 WHIP in 19 appearance after he was traded from Texas to Atlanta on July 31.
Romero had a 1.24 ERA and 1.101 WHIP in 51 appearances this season for Philly, which plays in a home park that causes nightmares for most pitchers. Not for Romero, who has a 1.83 ERA in 26 career appearances at cozy Citizens Bank Park, with only one homer and nine hits allowed in 19-2/3 innings.
Lefties hit .208 and righties hit .198 against him this season, and the Braves went 2-for-21 (.095) against Romero, while the Mets were 2-for-19. That’s 4-for-40 by the Phillies’ chief rivals, with two doubles, no RBIs and 14 strikeouts.
Romero is 31 and rubber-armed, and given his durability and steady performance, that $12 million investment doesn’t seem quite as risky or extravagant as it would for a lefty specialist most teams other than the Yankees.
But personally, I’m guessing the price won’t go as high for Mahay. But still might go higher than the Braves are looking to pay.
By the way, Cooper said Smoltz is excited about next season and has been crowing about his recent hole-in-one on a 320-yard par 4.
“He’s very positive about next year,” Cooper said. “He feels great, and he’s got his routine and regimen in place for next year.”
Ok, time to watch some ‘ball before I catch a redeye (12:35 a.m.) flight home to Atlanta. But first…
While I’m thinking about it, I got the new Robert Plant/Alison Krauss CD “Raising Sand” yesterday, listened to it three times during my 350 miles of driving to Sedona and Flagstaff, and it’s outstanding. I particulary love the song “Please Read the Letter.” Check it out if you haven’t yet.
And the Dwight Yoakam “Dwight Sings Buck” CD of Buck Owens covers, which I strongly recommended two months ago after downloading an advance copy by buddy had, I’ll even more strongly recommond after buying it yesterday and playing it repeatedly on the drive. Those two CDs and an Elvis Costello “Best of the First 10 Years” got me through nine hours without having to try to find a station in the barren Phoenix-area radio market.
“RADIO, RADIO” by Elvis Costello
I was tuning in the shine on the light night dial
Doing anything my radio advised
With every one of those late night stations
Playing songs bringing tears to my eyes
I was seriously thinking about hiding the receiver
When the switch broke ‘cause it’s old
They’re saying things that I can hardly believe
They really think we’re getting out of control
Radio is a sound salvation
Radio is cleaning up the nation
They say you better listen to the voice of reason
But they don’t give you any choice ‘cause they think that it’s treason
So you had better do as you are told
You better listen to the radio
I wanna bite the hand that feeds me
I wanna bite that hand so badly
I want to make them wish they’d never seen me
Some of my friends sit around every evening
And they worry about the times ahead
But everybody else is overwhelmed by indifference
And the promise of an early bed
You either shut up or get cut up, they don’t wanna hear about it
It’s only inches on the reel-to-reel
And the radio is in the hands of such a lot of fools
Tryin’ to anaesthetise the way that you feel
Radio is a sound salvation
Radio is cleaning up the nation
They say you better listen to the voice of reason
But they don’t give you any choice ‘cause they think that it’s treason
So you had better do as you are told
You better listen to the radio
Wonderful radio
Marvelous radio
Wonderful radio
Radio, radio…
OK, THIS JUST IN: Have to add this. I was just about to post this blog when none other than Frank Wren walked up unannounced just now, surprising me in the pressbox. I had talked to him on the phone a couple hours ago, and he’d said he was in Atlanta.
When I mentioned to him on the phone that I’d heard him and Bobby Cox might be coming to the games in Arizona this weekend to see the prospects, Frank had replied, “What do we look like, scouts?” Little did I know he was 10 miles away in a hotel when I was talking to him on the phone, and was enjoying pulling my leg.
He and Bobby are down in the stands now. They’re going to be out here for next three days (which I’d guess assure there will be no Glavine press conference in the next couple days, not that I was expecting it that soon anyway).
Might have to go down and watch an inning or two with them tonight before I head back to my hotel and the airport.
None of the folks in the pressbox recognized Frank when he sat down and talked to me for a few minutes. But minutes after he left the pressbox, I heard some reporter who covers the Arizona Fall League say excitedly to another guy, “Hey, you see who’s here? Bobby Cox. He’s sitting right down there.”
Now that I think about it, I guess that explains five of tonight’s nine starters being from the Braves, huh?
OK, that’s it. Talk to you folks in a while.
Goin’ to Arizona to see some fall ball
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Looking forward to getting on a plane bound for Phoenix tomorrow morning, and not simply because it’ll be 90 degrees when I get there (but that sure sounds nice about now, doesn’t it?). No, I’m eager to see The Kid play a little fall ball, see if young Jordan Schafer is all that everyone says he is.
Just checked the latest stats for the Braves’ future center fielder (I’ll bet he’s manning CF by opening day 2009, perhaps even sooner) and saw that he was 1-for-12 in his last three games before today.
Not to worry — his average was still at .350 and his on-base percentage at .418. He was third in the batting race among players with at least 60 at-bats.
Before the mini-slump Schafer had gone 14-for-26 in his previous games to raise his average to .397. He’s 28-for-60 with six doubles and a homer for the Peoria Javelinas, and he’s one of the youngest players in the league, having just turned 21 in September.
“He’s done a great job out there, adapted just terrifically to the higher level of competition,” Braves player development director Kurt Kemp said of Schafer, who is one of the few top prospects out there who hasn’t played above A-ball.
Meanwhile, the Braves continue to turn up rocks and pound the phones trying to find the stopgap replacement CF for Andruw Jones.
I’m hearing the same names you folks are, waiting for something substantial, for one name to emerge ahead of the others. I’ve talked to several people, and I’m talking to some beat guys in other cities who are snooping around, too.
Maybe it changes an hour from now and I hear something that leads me to believe one guy has emerged as the favorite. But not yet. So I’ll keep asking about the likes of Boston’s Coco Crisp, Kansas City’s David DeJesus, the Angels’ Chone Figgins, Toronto’s Reed Johnson, Cincinnati’s Ryan Freel, and San Francisco’s Randy Winn, among others.
Some seem a lot more realistic than others. Obviously Chone Figgins would be just about a perfect fit, a versatile player who has plenty of CF experience and hit .330 with a .393 OBP and 41 steals in only 115 at-bats last season. Hello, leadoff man. However, the Angels have teams lined up interested in Figgins, who’s making $4.75 mill next season and then should make plenty more in his final year of arbitration in 2009, before becoming a free agent.
I’d rank him first among affordable (salary-wise) or somewhat affordable possibilities, well ahead of Coco Crisp, who’s better defensively but hit just .268 with a .330 OBP and .382 slugging percentage this season and lost his job to rookie Jacoby Ellsbury late in the season. Crisp, once a power-hitting Indians prospect, has only 14 homers in over 900 at-bats over the past two seasons, and showed no more power this season than he did when his sore wrist was blamed for sapping his power in ’06.
Making him even less likely is the high asking price the Red Sox want in a trade for Crisp, who’s owed $4.75 mill in ‘08 and $5.75 mill in ‘09, with an $8 mill option and $500K buyout for 2010. Too much money, too long a commitment, and too much in trade (Braves already said “no way” to a reported Kelly Johnson-for-Crisp proposal).
David DeJesus has a lot of pluses, not the least of which is a very reasonable contract — $13.3 mill over the next four years. Royals GM Dayton Moore, a former Braves asst. GM, says the Royals are unlikely to trade DeJesus, whose average slipped from .295 in 2006 to .260 in 157 games in 2007, his first season with more than 122 games.
Maybe Dayton’s just trying to drive up the asking price, trying to get plenty in return for DeJesus. I don’t know if the Braves would want to make a four-year commitment, even at that reasonable rate. Then again, you could always trade DeJesus again or use him at another position after Schafer arrives.
Winn is a solid all-around player who hit .300 with 42 doubles and 14 homers for the Giants, including 10 homers on the road away from pitcher-friendly AT&T Park. He’s got a .286 career average in 10 seasons, double-digit homers in seven consecutive seasons (20 in 2005) and a ton of experience in CF and in LF.
But the switch-hitting vet is owed $8 mill in 2008 and $8.5 mill in 2009 and I can’t see any way Braves trade for him unless they can get San Francisco to pay a chunk of that salary.
Ryan Freel might be at least a remote possibility from Cincinnati, but I can assure you Ken Griffey Jr. is not. Braves haven’t talked to Reds about Griffey and have no plans to.
And considering Freel hit .245 with three homers in 277 at-bats last season, including just two homers in 40 games at the most hitter-friendly home ballpark in the majors, and he’s owed $3 mill in 2008 and $4 mill in ’09 … uh, well, I don’t see that happening.
Looking for lefties: The Braves are expected to land one left-hander in the next week or two, soon-to-be 42-year-old starter Tom Glavine. If they don’t sign the free agent, I and most of baseball would be very surprised.
It could happen next week anytime after the Tuesday start day for teams to talk contract figures with other teams’ free agents, but don’t be surprised if it takes a little longer. Glavine isn’t going to take the Braves’ first offer, I’d imagine, not when teams such as Washington have made it clear they’d also be interested should he choose to even consider other proposals.
But whatever happens, whatever posturing occurs, whatever rumors of the Braves’ big being too low or the Nationals making a great offer, I really don’t see Glavine signing with any team other than the Braves. Maybe if the Braves just flub this thing up and come in with an embarrassingly low offer, he’d look elsewhere, but I don’t see that happening.
Meanwhile, Braves are also trying to land a lefty reliever, whether that be re-signing Ron Mahay or trying to get a cheaper option if Mahay’s price goes too high, which could well happen since so many teams are interested in him.
Mahay’s come this far and now has his first crack at a big free-agent deal, so you can expect that he’s going to test the waters and not sign anything too quickly.
Chipper “shocked” by Wright Gold Glove: I talked to Chipper Jones a few hours after the Gold Glove awards were announced on Tuesday, and he seemed at least as surprised as most of us were that Mets 3B David Wright got the NL award.
Wright had the fifth-most errors (21) among NL third baseman, and his .954 fielding percentage was fifth-lowest among NL third baseman, far behind the top three of San Francisco’s Pedro Feliz (.973), Chicago’s Aramis Ramirez (.972) and Chipper (.971), who had nine errors in 126 games at third base.
“I wouldn’t have been disappointed had someone like Feliz or Ramirez won it,” Jones said. “I’m a little confused by the final tally — that’s a head-scratcher for me.”
The managers and coaches do the voting for Gold Gloves, and I told Chipper it wouldn’t be the first time their votes were swayed as much by a player’s hitting totals as his defense. Wright hit .325 with 30 homers and 107 RBIs in 160 games.
“Then [Miguel] Cabrera should have won it, if that were the case,” Chipper said of the theory. And he had a point, though Cabrera’s defense is so shaky that it would be ridiculous to award him a Gold Glove.
“When I find out [Wright won] I was speechless, for quite some time,” Chipper said. “Certainly the guys with the least amount of errors and best fielding percentage quite obviously didn’t win it.”
This afternoon I was going over stats and started comparing. And it made me realize, again, just how potent Chipper’s bat has been whenever he’s been in the lineup the past two seasons.
Consider this: Wright had what was widely hailed as a terrific offensive season, batting .325 with 40 doubles, 1 triple, 30 homers, 113 runs, 107 RBIs, a .416 OBP and a .546 slugging percentage (.962 OPS).
Now consider this: Chipper played 24 fewer games than Wright, and Hoss hit .337 with 42 doubles, 4 triples, 29 homers, 108 runs, 102 RBIs, a .425 OBP and a .604 slugging percentage (1.029 OPS).
Wright killed him in steals (29 to 5), but otherwise Chipper’s numbers are all nearly equal or better than Wright’s, in 24 fewer games.
Chipper got hot at the plate in late June 2006, and the only thing that’s cooled him for any significant stretch since then has been a couple of stints on the DL. Each time, he’s come back from the DL blazing, no rehab required.
Since June 24, 2006, he’s played 185 games and hit .350 with 58 doubles, 48 homers, 153 RBIs, a .434 OBP and .655 slugging percentage.
In 92 road games in that stretch, Jones hit .370 (not a typo) with 33 doubles, 25 homers, 77 RBIs, a .442 OBP and a .690 slugging percentage — a 1.132 OPS.
My Morning Jacket: I know we’ve raved about the Kentucky band My Morning Jacket in the past, but I just have to reiterate, since I’m going through a second wave of can’t-take-it-out-of-my-CD-player with their live album, Okonokos.
The thing came out a year ago, but I go back to it and it sounds as fresh and incredible every time I put it on.
Seriously, if you guys want to hear one of the best live bands and best straight-ahead, bluesy, rock albums of the past, oh, century or so, get this double-disc. It’s what “jam bands” should be, but almost none are. Don’t believe me? Download a couple of songs on it. Try these three from the first disc: songs Nos. 7-9, “The Way That He Sings,” “What A Wonderful Man” and “Off The Record.”
Now, a great singer-songwriter will take us out:
”NO MORE BUFFALO” by James McMurtry
I guess we knew the cards were stacked
started out the best of friends
and we beat that highway ‘till it quit beating back
it didn’t mean much in the end some you win, some you lose
some you throw away
we headed South across those Colorado plains
just as empty as the day we looked around at all we saw
remembered all we’d hoped to see
looking out through the bugs on the windshield
somebody said to me
no more buffalo
blue skies or open road
no more rodeo
no more noise
take this Cadillac
park it out in back
mama’s calling
put away the toys
don’t chase that carrot
‘till it makes you sick
what do you think you’re gonna prove
just let it dangle
‘till it falls off that stick
that’s when you make your move
don’t go chasing after shooting stars
trying to make yourself a name
you could joust at the windmills
with that old Fender guitar
you’d probably do about the same
no more buffalo
blue skies or open road
no more rodeo
no more noise
take this Cadillac
park it out in back
mama’s calling
put away the toys
I never thought they’d ever doubt my words
I guess they were just too tired to care
I’d point to the horizon
to the dust of the herds
still hovering in the air
somebody said it ain’t any such
man you wish so hard you’re scaring me
and those are combines kicking up that dust
but I guess you can see what you want to see
you can keep on chasing what used to be there
top that rise and face the pain
but man they were here
they were here I swear
not just these bleaching bones
stretching across the plain
no more buffalo
blue skies or open road
no more rodeo
no more noise
take this Cadillac
park it out in back
mama’s calling
put away the toys
hey broke into your car last night,
took the stereo
No seen Elvis in a year or two
CF Schafer tearing up Fall League … but too young?
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
He just turned 21 and hasn’t played above the A-ball level, but Jordan Schafer is showing folks that he could be ready for the majors sooner than later — and perhaps sooner than most of us expected.
The kid is leading the Arizona Fall League with a whopping .397 average and .468 on-base percentage, and the only thing I can’t figure out is, how in the world did Schafer hit just .240 at Rome in 2006?
Not that it matters much. Not after the huge strides he made this season, hitting a jaw-dropping .372 with 22 extra-base hits (five homers) and 20 RBIs in 30 games at Rome, then .294 with 34 doubles, eight triples, 10 homers and a .354 OBP in 106 games at high-A Myrtle Beach.
He’s continued that progress out in Arizona, where he’s poised to give the Braves their second consecutive AFL batting champion. Last year Yunel Escobar led that prospect-laden league with a .407 average. You might have heard — the Cuban rookie did alright this year after he was brought to the bigs in June.
A huge understatement, of course — Escobar did so well that the Braves were willing to trade veteran shortstop Edgar Renteria, who was as important as anyone on their team during two seasons with Atlanta.
Could Schafer replicate Escobar’s rapid rise to the bigs? Well, yes, you can’t rule anything out in this day and age, when even mid- and large-payrolled teams are relying more than ever on their homegrown talent (see: Boston Red Sox and Jacoby Ellsbury, 24; Jon Lester, 23; Dustin Pedroia, 24).
Still, it seems far more likely (at least to me) that 24-year-old Braves prospect Brent Lillibridge would fit that bill, if the Braves decide to move him from the shortstop position he’s played in the minors to center field, where he played as a college freshman in 2003.
He’s three years older than Schafer, who just turned 21 in September. That’s really, really young for an every-day position player to be considered for major league duty, especially with no experience above A-ball. I just can’t see the Braves seriously considering Schafer as an option to replace Andruw Jones this spring, despite the stunning success Schafer’s had during 2007.
Now, could I see him coming up at some point during the 2008 season if the Braves have an injury or disappointing performance by whoever does replace Andruw? Yes, I could see that. Just as we saw Kelly Johnson and Jeff Francoeur thrust into starting jobs early in the 2005 season after the aging Brian Jordan/Raul Mondesi corner-outfield duo fossilized, er, stumbled out of the blocks.
But I also don’t see the Braves handing over the center-field reins to anyone as old and/or brittle as Jordan and Mondesi were, though a few folks here on the blog would like to see them go after Ken Griffey Jr., who would certainly be capable of landing on the DL before the Fourth of July.
Since I can’t see the Braves going after Junior to be their center fielder, I’m going to assume it’s not going to happen and Schafer isn’t going to get the call in June to replace the injured veteran when he pulls a hammy or whatever.
But Schafer is clearly the real deal, as every scout, opposing manager and Braves team official who’s seen him in the past 10 months will attest. He’s not as fast as the kid the Braves just got from Detroit, 20-year-old CF Gorkys Hernandez.
But I’m told that kid is at least a year behind Schafer in terms of development, so it appears there’s a good chance Schafer is going to have an opportunity to show what he can do in the majors before Hernandez is ready for The Show.
Whatever happens, it appears the Braves are all set in center field after the 2008 season. Now, if they can just find a good option to fit into their payroll for the upcoming season. Lillibridge is certainly affordable, and will be for at least three or four seasons.
Reports say he was a solid outfielder in college. You don’t lose that skill in a few years. I’m sure Lillibridge could be a solid glove man in center this season, if the Braves believe he’s ready to hit.
I’m gonna ask Frank Wren about it this week, see if the new GM might provide a better clue as to the legitimacy of this happening and whether Lillibridge is about to start playing winter ball after that tendinitis in his wrist kept him out of any October and early November action.
Lillibridge doesn’t have much more to prove in the minors, that’s for sure. This season in his first go at Triple-A, after a midseasons promotion, he hit .287 with 10 homers and 28 stolen bases in 33 attempts over 87 games for Richmond.
How ‘bout Kelly Johnson hitting leadoff, Escobar in the 2-hole (though you wouldn’t want him trying to think too much and be Edgar there, since that ain’t gonna happen right away), with Lillibridge down in the order? Or you could hit Escobar leadoff (he had great numbers in that role in his platoon duties last season) and have patient K.J. hitting second ahead of Chipper.
But if Lillibridge could hit and get on base right away, he’s obviously a strong leadoff candidate.
So many ways it could go, if - and that’s a big if - Lillibridge is in the lineup. That major league minimum salary and that speed/power combo sure makes him attractive, if the kid can go get it in the outfield well enough to play center in the majors.
I’m sure the Braves could find another few places to spend that $7-10 mill they’d have to pay a merely decenter veteran center fielder, if Lillibridge is ready to do the job. Don’t you think? Maybe, I don’t know, another starting pitcher in addition to Tom Glavine, or perhaps another reliever and a bench player?
Oh, yes, we made it this far before mentioning Glavine.
Folks, I’m close to certain it’s going to happen. More than ever, I believe it. Maybe not right away on Nov. 13, the day teams can talk contract terms with other teams’ free agents, but by the end of the month, before the winter meetings, I think you can count on Glavine being a Brave again.
OK, that’s it for now. I’ll be talking with Wren by phone from the GM meetings this week, since we decided not to cover them this year. Frankly, so little usually happens there, it’s not been essential to cover in recent years.
But watch — we don’t go and this will be the year the Braves sign A-Rod.
No, no, that’s not going to happen … unless the price comes down to $27 mill per year.
Just kidding. Seeing if you’re still there.
Fire up the Hot Stove. It’s almost time to begin baseball’s Silly Season, in earnest.
Hall of Fame broadcasters? If you believe Skip, Pete or Ernie belong in the Hall of Fame — and if you don’t, what’s wrong with you? — you should get online and vote for the venerable trio of past and present Braves broadcasters. Fan voting will determine three of the 10 finalists for the 2008 Ford Frick Award for excellence in broadcasting.
Go to baseballhall.org, wade through the stuff and find the place where you can vote. It won’t take much time….
And if you’re looking for a great cause to get involved in, consider a donation to the Bobby Cox Paws Because third annual fundraiser to benefit the Homeless Pets Foundation. This year it’s a “Bets For Pets Casino Night” Nov. 17 from 8 p.m. to midnight at the 755 Club at Turner Field. Guests can play black jack, dice roulette, and also challenge Braves players in games including billiards, air hockey and NASCAR and golf simulators.
They haven’t said yet which players and other celebrities are going to be there. There will also be a silent auction featuring memorabilia from John Smoltz, Chipper Jones, Jeff Francoeur and other pro athletes, and two trips — to Napa Valley and a big-game hunting excursion in Colorado.
Tickets for this event are $100.00 and you get ‘em online at www.949thebull.com. Sponsorships are also available. For more info, e-mail coxpawsbecause@yahoo.com or call Sue Vandiver at (404) 274-1651.
Tunes and such: OK, what’s the consensus from the denizens who’ve seen American Gangster? We’re going tonight, I think. I’ve seen mostly solid-to-excellent reviews, though many have said Denzel’s character is a bit over-romanticized, considering his line of work and such. I do dig me some gangster movies, though. I’m pretty sure this will be no exception, for me….
I’d give big thumbs-up to all the recent ones I’ve seen: Gone Baby Gone, Lars and the Real Girl, Into The Wild and Michael Clayton.
And my favorite TV series of summer/fall, now that I’ve finally seen the entire season of Mad Men on AMC: Mad Men, Damages, Friday Night Lights, Entourage, Rescue Me, The Office, House, and Real Time with Bill Maher.
”SOUTHERN ACCENTS” by Tom Petty
There’s a southern accent, where I come from
The young’uns call it country
The yankees call it dumb
I got my own way of talkin’
But everything is done, with a Southern accent
Where I come from
Now that drunk tank in Atlanta’s
Just a motel room to me
Think I might go work Orlando
If them orange groves don’t freeze
I got my own way of workin’
But everything is run, with a Southern accent
Where I come from
For just a minute there I was dreaming
For just a minute it was all so real
For just a minute she was standing there, with me
There’s a dream I keep having
Where my mama comes to me
And kneels down over by the window
And says a prayer for me
I got my own way of prayin’
But everyone’s begun
With a Southern accent
Where I come from
I got my own way of livin’
But everything gets done
With a Southern accent
Where I come from
Braves already heating up Hot Stove
The Atlanta Journal-Constitution
Help me, Merle, I’m breaking out in a Nashville rash….
Actually, it’ll be another month before we head to Music City for the Winter Meetings, but the Hot Stove talk has already been stoked and figures to intensify exponentially between now and the annual big meetings the first week of December.
Will the Braves have added at least one accomplished starting pitcher and replacement center fielder to their roster by then? I’d say probably on the pitcher, probably not on the center fielder.
So many teams and free agents wait to trade or sign during and especially right after the winter meetings, and I don’t know why this winter would be any different.
The question so many Braves fans have, will they sign Tom Glavine and when, is difficult to answer because both sides are playing it so close to the vest. Of the many things that Frank Wren learned as John Schuerholz’s assistant the past seven seasons, desire for secrecy is unfortunately one of them.
But if you’re asking me my gut feeling, I say the Braves will sign the 41-year-old lefty and that it will get done before the winter meetings, probably at a price closer to $10 million than so many fans will be comfortable with, but hey, the market is the market. He’ll take a discount to pitch for Atlanta, but if he can get $12 million from another team, it’s a bit much to ask him to take $7 mill to pitch for the Braves.
Then again, maybe the Nationals or Cardinals or some other team won’t make him an offer as high as I anticipate at least one will. If not, if those teams are convinced he’s pitching for the Braves (or Mets) and no one else, then maybe they don’t bother going through the motions. In that case, the Braves could benefit by getting him a bit cheaper than they might otherwise.
Still, I think it’ll probably take more than $8 million in a one year deal, perhaps with a mutual option and a small buyout.
But we’ll soon have a much better idea. The Braves and other teams can talk contract with Glavine until Nov. 13, after the 15-day exclusive negotiating window for teams to talk money with their own free agents. The Braves and other teams can talk to Glavine now, just aren’t supposed to talk financial terms until after the 10-day period, which began the day after the World Series.
We went into the offseason with me anticipating the Braves would sign Glavine and also make a move for at least one more younger, affordable pitcher. I was thinking someone along the likes of Blanton from Oakland, but can’t say now whether they’ll still try to make something like that happen.
I say this because the Renteria trade brought the young right-handed prospect from Detroit, Jair Jurrjens, who pitched well for the Tigers in a few of his seven starts late last season and looks ready to compete for a spot in the Braves’ rotation, which has a growing list of candidates for the back two spots should the Braves sign Glavine.
Think about it, they’d have Hudson and Smoltz, then Glavine if they sign him, then Hampton ($15 mill next season, so I’d suggest to you he’s gonna be in the rotation if he’s healthy), then Chuck James, Jo-Jo Reyes, Jurrjens and possibly another journeyman or prospect all competing for one spot (or two spots if Hampton’s not ready).
So while it wouldn’t surprise me if the Braves still look to acquire another proven starter, I’d also not be surprised if they don’t. Of course, if they don’t sign Glavine, then of course they’ll be going after another proven starter via trade or free agency.
For those wondering about Curt Schilling — look, it’s nice for the Braves that he put them on his list of 13 teams and all that, because it sends a signal to other pitchers and free agents, a reminder that the Braves are still a well-run, competitive organization.
But unless the asking price for Glavine simply goes higher than the Braves are willing to go, then there’s no reason they’d turn to Schilling. I just can’t imagine any team entering a season with three 40-something pitchers in the first four spots of your rotation (Smoltz, Glavine, Schilling). No way.
— Center field still vacant: I know, this just in…. But seriously, the center field situation is going to be interesting. Maybe it’ll get settled soon, but I haven’t heard anything yet to indicate the Braves are close to making a move for a proven CF.
Then again, no one here or in Detroit knew they were as close as they were to making the Renteria-for-two-prosects deal on Monday, either. But if you’ll recall, I did say several times in recent weeks that the Renteria-Detroit thing was one to keep an eye on, because of the Leyland-Renteria connection.
Anyway, center field. I know the Braves have sent signals out indicating they wouldn’t be averse to plugging in the kid Jordan Schafer out there, pointing out that Rafael Furcal made the jump directly from A-ball to the majors.
But I’m not buying that. Furcal was a notable exception, blessed with blazing speed (nearly 100 steals in his final minor league season) and a cannon arm. The Braves knew that, at worst, he’d be able to slap balls on the ground and beat out plenty of hits, and that his speed at the top of their order would be a huge asset as a rookie. Turns out he surpassed all expectations as a rookie.
But can’t see them throwing a kid (Schafer) into the CF job after one impressive season in A-ball (his first two years in minors weren’t much). I do believe Schafer will be ready in a year or two, but not now.
Brent Lillibridge, on the other hand, could be a legitimate option if the Braves don’t like the free-agent price tags for CFs or aren’t willing to purge more prospects in a trade for a CF when they’ve now got two elite CF prospects in the wings (Schafer and the blazing speedster Gorkys Hernandez, 20, who came with Jurrjens from Detroit in exchange for Renteria).
(While we’re at it, how ‘bout that Renteria-for-Andy Marte trade from two years ago? Talk about the trade that could keep giving … the Braves got two outstanding seasons out of Renteria, now might also have a long-term starting pitcher and center fielder out of it. What’s Marte done in the interim? If we’re gonna bust on the Braves for some trades that didn’t work out as they hoped, also need to acknowledge the ones that worked out even better than planned.)
Anyway, Lillibridge has excelled in the high minors, he’s a few years older than Schafer, and he played center field at the Univ. of Washington four years ago as a freshman, when he had his best college season.
If the Braves play him in center field in the second half of the winter-ball season, or even if they only play him there in spring training, it’d be enough time for him to brush up on his outfield play. It’s not like Kelly Johnson, who moved to second base after one winter of workouts at Turner Field and spring training, after never playing the right side of the infield and after missing the entire 2006 season.
The drawback, if there is one, is that Lillibridge is an outstanding shortstop, and do you want to move him from his natural position to center field? Would it hurt his potential trade value? The other side of that, however, is that if the Braves like him as much as I’m told they do, then they don’t want to trade him and want to have his offense in their lineup, and of course they have a shortstop (Yunel Escobar) who should be a fixture for years to come.
If he’s more valuable to the team as a center fielder this season than he is as trade bait, then by all means, the Braves should put Lillibridge out there and spend the money on pitching - both starting and relief — and on the raises that several current Braves are going to get anyway.
Mike Cameron’s 25-game suspension for a second positive test for banned stimulants will make the soon-to-be 35-year-old CF a little cheaper on the free-agent market, but probably still not as cheap as the Braves might find suitable.
All you need to know is that Cameron wasn’t much interested in a two-year, $20 mill offer the Padres were prepared to make in April, according to my buddy Tom Krasovic, who covers the Padres for the S.D. paper. He reportedly wanted three years and $36 mill.
I liked the idea of Cameron as a stopgap measure for a year or two until Schafer’s ready (or until Hernandez is ready, whoever’s ready first). But not at $10 mill a year, much less $12 mill a year, and certainly not for three years.
And if they signed him now, they’d have to have someone else play CF for April, which would be fine if they had a strong CF backup returning from last year. But Willie Harris ain’t the answer, folks. And he’s eligible for arbitration, so I don’t even think he’ll be back after his late-season slump.
And moving Jeff Francoeur? The Braves have no intentions of doing it, and no amount of fan (or columnist) discussion or suggestions is going to change their minds. Personally, I don’t think Frenchy has the range or the natural jumps on fly balls to play center at a high level. And besides, I like his arm in right field.
Ken Griffey Jr? In a word, no. Braves need someone they can count on for more than 80 games. Besides, if the Reds saw fit to move him from CF, what makes anyone believe the Braves would see fit to move him back there at his age?
As for Torii Hunter, folks probably need to realize that Hunter is probably going to get offers of at least five years, $75 mill, perhaps from the Yankees and very likely from the White Sox. The Braves aren’t interested in a long-term commitment to a high-priced CF, not when they’ve got pitching needs and certainly not when they’ve got two elite CF prospects in the pipeline.
Aaron Rowand? Same story, basically. He’ll command a long-term deal, at least three or four years at around $10 mill or more per year, maybe $12 mill per.
— Instant replay: Buster Olney was told that some GMs are planning to recommend limited use of instant replay during the General Managers meetings next week in Orlando. Good. I’m for it, but only on a very limited basis - specifically, a quick look at a TV monitor mounted nearby to determine whether balls are fair or foul, or whether homers hit this yellow line or that foul screen or whatever.
For close plays at the plate, I don’t know. I’d hate to slow the glacial pace of some games even more. For balls and strikes and other calls, absolutely not. No, no, no.
— Edgar will be missed, no doubt: In the clubhouse, the classy veteran was a true leader by example, taking Escobar under his wing and helping to transform him from a youngster who had some attitude problems in the minors, to a hard-working professional who handled himself well in his first season in the majors.
And at the plate, Renteria’s contributions in the No. 2 hole will be missed. You better believe that. There are very few who do the things he does in that role. Also, as ESPN research guru Mark Simon pointed out, here were Edgar’s averages with runners in scoring position the past six seasons — 2002: .372; 2003: .317; 2004: .286; 2005: .298; 2006: .293; 2007: .331.
— Great flicks, records: Saw two fine movies this week, one on the plane back from Denver (Talk To Me starring Don Cheadle, with an absolutely incredible R&B/soul soundtrack), and one at the theatre (Lars and the Real Girl starring arguably the finest young actor in a decade, Ryan Gosling, an entirely original flick that’s not for everyone, but will be a top-five movie this year for those who dig such unconventional, out-of-the-mainstream, brilliantly written and acted films. OK, was that review pretentious enough? But really, it’s great. But there are no shootings or sex scenes, so don’t say you weren’t warned).
Gonna go see Gone Baby Gone tonight. Heard nothing but good things about it.
OK, and who was it here who said Neil Young’s new album, Chrome Dreams II, was disappointing or that I wouldn’t like it. Man, I’ve gotta disagree strongly. I love it, especially the 18-minute “Ordinary People.” That stands with much of his best work. Terrific song, worth the price of admission alone, though there are several other great tunes on this record, too.
I’ll again offer my highest recommendation for the Shout Out Louds’ CD Our Ill Wills; which sounds a lot like The Cure when The Cure was still really, really good, which was quite a long time ago.
OK, and I probably shouldn’t admit this, but I actually really like one album by one of the new breed of country artists: Joe Nichols’ Real Things. I know, I know, I’ve said no under-30 country artists, at least not dude singers, are worth a damn. But this guy’s got the great old-school voice and the tunes aren’t like most of the overproduced garbage coming out of Nashville. I mean, just play the first two songs on this record, “Real Things” and especially “Another Side of You,” and his cover of Blaze Foley’s “If I Could Only Fly,” and tell me this cat doesn’t have a great sound.
Alright, I feel like I need to go put on some Merle Haggard now, after recommending such a relatively popular current country artist. Or some Neil. Yeah, that’s it.
WARNING: Extremely long song lyrics below. If you don’t like Neil Young, then skip to the comments and post away.
”ORDINARY PEOPLE” by Neil Young
In a dusty town
a clock struck high noon,
Two men stood face to face.
One wore black and one wore white,
But of fear there wasn’t a trace.
Two hundred years later
two hot rods drag race
through the very same place,
And a half a million people,
moved in to pick up the pace.
A factory full of people,
Makin’ parts to go to outer space.
A train load of people,
They were aimin’ for another place.
Out of town people.
There’s a man in the window
with a big cigar,
Says everything’s for sale.
The house and the boat
and the railroad car.
The owner’s gotta go to jail.
He acquired these things
from a life of crime,
Now he’s selling them
to raise his bail.
He was rippin’ off the people.
Sellin’ guns to the underground.
Tryin’ to help the people,
Lose their a@#
for a piece of ground.
Rippin’ off the people.
Skimmin’ the top when
there was no one around.
Tryin’ to help the people.
He was dealing antiques
in a hardware store,
But he sure had a lot to hide.
He had a backroom full
of the guns of war,
And a ton of ammunition besides.
Well, he walked with a cane,
Kept a bolt on the door
with five pit bulls inside.
Just a warning to the people,
Who might try to break in at night.
Protection from the people,
Selling safety
in the darkest night.
Tryin’ to help the people.
Get the drugs
to the street all right.
Ordinary people.
Well, it’s hard to say
where a man goes wrong,
Might be here
and it might be there.
What starts out weak
might get too strong,
If you can’t tell foul from fair.
But it’s hard to judge
from an angry throng,
Of hands stretched into the air.
The vigilante people.
Takin’ law into their own hands.
Conscientious people.
Crackin’ down on
the druglord’s land.
Government people.
Confiscatin’ all
the dealer’s land.
Patch-of-ground people.
Down at the factory,
they’re puttin’ new windows in.
The vandals made a mess of things,
And the homeless
just walked right in.
Well, they worked here once,
and they live here now,
But they might work here again,
They’re ordinary people.
And they’re livin’ in a nightmare.
Hard workin’ people.
And they don’t know
how they got there.
Ordinary people.
And they think that you don’t care.
Hard workin’ people.
Down on the assembly line,
they keep puttin’
the same thing out.
But the people today,
they just ain’t buyin’.
Nobody can figure it out.
Well, they try like hell
to build a quality end,
They’re workin’ hard
without a doubt,
They’re ordinary people.
And the dollar’s
what it’s all about.
Hard workin’ people.
But the customers are walkin’ out.
Lee Iacocca people.
Yeah, they look
but they just don’t buy.
Hard workin’ people.
Two out of work models
and a fashion slave,
Try to dance away
the Michelob night.
The bartender poured
himself another drink,
While two drunks sat
watchin’ the fight.
The champ went down,
then he got up again,
And then he went out like a light.
He was fightin’ for the people,
But his timing wasn’t right.
For Las Vegas people,
Who came to see a Las Vegas fight.
High rollin’ people,
Takin’ limos
though the neon night.
Fightin’ for the people.
And then a new Rolls Royce
and a company car,
They went flyin’ down the street.
Each one tryin’
to make it to the gate,
Before employees manned the fleet.
The trucks full of products
for the modern home,
Set to roll out into the street,
Of downtown people,
Tryin’ to make their way to work.
Nose-to-the-stone people,
Some are saints, and some are jerks.
Hard workin’ people,
Stoppin’ for a drink
on the way to work.
Alcoholic people,
Yeah, they’re takin’ it
one day, one day at a time.
Out on the railroad track,
they’re cleanin’ up number 9.
They’re scrubbin’ the boiler down,
well, she really is lookin’ fine.
Ah, she’s lookin’ so good,
they’re gonna
bring her back on line.
Ordinary people.
They’re gonna bring
the good things back.
Nose-to-the stone people.
Put the business back on track.
Ordinary people,
I got faith in the regular kind.
Hard workin’ people.
Patch-of-ground people.
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